@Voxx: Is it wise to bring that up now? Why paint a target on your head as a PR at the beginning of Day 2?
Let's just say I thought about it fully before bringing it up, and let wolves worry about what that means.
Well if you're town and you weren't blocked by a wolf, then you've given them information about yourself and other town. It seems to me that town doesn't really benefit from this information at the moment. You say you've "thought about it fully", but I still feel it's short-sighted.
With pizza coming out and saying he wasn't actually RoleBlocked, this feels like scum tmi. vote Colin
Colin, why did you immediately assuming a town roleblocker?
How votal analysis works: (since a few posts by players this game has made it seem some players don’t know)
1) Scum tend not to vote one-right-after-the other on wagons. This is a manifestation of scum’s desire to be seen as “reasonable” more than wanting to actually find scum - they tend to want a Townie to “confirm” a wagon is reasonable before jumping on. Scum players do this instinctively without thinking about it. I think this tell is underused, because I recently analyzed a game for this tell and discovered scum voted together around 1/4th the rate you’d expect if player alignment didn’t matter for the probability of being wagon neighbors, and the scum specifically attempted to dodge this very tell.
2) Wagons on Townies tend to contain some scum. This has nothing to do with the “statistics” that any group of 5ish players is likely to contain a scum and everything to do with the fact that as a mislynch acquires more Townies it becomes a more and more desirable target of scum to vote on. Similar to rule of 3, this means wagons contain a scum/Town ratio with less variance than a completely random group of players.
3) Scum don’t like bussing. There are two specific places where scum are extremely unlikely to bus - when there is another wagon on a townie of similar size, or very early (First 3 votes).
All these are subject to being given more or less credence due to context. Votal analysis isn’t a magic formula and more a system of detecting scum behavior which is likely to fall through the cracks otherwise, and to determine how your reads interact before players involved have flipped.
Scum is at least one in {DoTA / Voxx / shadow}, I don't think any combinations are ruled out. I recall shadow suggesting it could be all Town, but I don't buy that - TubbaFett, Colin and King Torg could have all jumped on as it was forming, and there was no reason the wagon had to stop when Jenna voted, other players could have hopped on later. I've lost more EV by undertrusting votal analysis than overtrusting it. Former two not getting on looks bad for shadow.
“Preview” edit: Given what Pizza has done since I started working on this, I’m convinced Pizza is not scum unless DoTA is also scum. This implies either DoTA or shadow is scum. and if DoTA is Town so is Pizza.
Voxx vote would be more distancing than turbo-bussing, which seems off Voxx's scum MO.
I don't think Jenna is a wolf outside this but I will mention that I think Jenna/shadow is never w/w.
Hmm given the Voxx vs. shadow thing here, probably at least one of Voxx and shadow are Town. I don't see them attacking each other but making up and being best buddies this Day phase. (Although Voxx hasn't exactly given shadow glowing praise).
So that conclusion is: Voxx or Shadow is Town
DoTA wagon should be analyzed on how it grows, so I'll look at it later.
Wow this makes me mad at the Osie lynch all over again.
So one of DoTArchon/Tubba Fett/Killjoy is scum, but that’s more because they’re all scummy than votal analysis. What’s more interesting is that one or two of them is probably Town.
I don’t think DoTArchon/Tubba is w/w there. Tubba Fett/Killjoy looks less solid given that TubbaFett is being wagonned, so it might override the natural scum instinct to spread out.
Vote Count 1.8 DoTArchon - 3 (Jenna Tolaria, King Torg, A Bear)
osieorb18 - 3 (DoTArchon, Tubba Fett, Killjoy)
King Torg / A Bear’s votes on DoTArchon are notable, since we know they’re counterwagonning a mislynch. I strongly doubt either is scum with DoTArchon, or scum with each other.
So either grapefruit or DoTArchon is Town either DoTArchon or King Torg is Town either grapefruit or King Torg is Town See Votal 1.11 analysis
Vote Count 1.11 osieorb18 - 4 (DoTArchon, Tubba Fett, Killjoy, King Torg) (L-3)
A Bear - 3 (Vaimes, Voxxicus, osieorb18)
DoTArchon - 2 (Jenna Tolaria, A Bear)
This votal is very interesting.
Note that King Torg has just moved from DoTA, breaking the 3-3-3 pattern.
From between when it was 3-3-3 with Osie’s vote on Bear and Torg breaking it, the following players posted:
Shadow
Killjoy
TubbaFett
(myself for completeness)
That implies these players didn’t really care which of {DotArchon/Osie/A Bear} got lynched. If any of these are scum, it’s probable they couldn’t move the lynch away from a scumbuddy in that list.
Shadow, TubbaFett, and Killjoy don’t make sense with DoTArchon or A Bear
King Torg’s vote there looks like a move to save Bear-slot. I went up and strikethough’d my original conclusion that King Torg / A Bear aren’t w/w, that’s enough to null it.
Only thing interesting that happens through EoD is shadow moving onto Bear and back off, I think have a much stronger shadow/grapefruit anti-align tell during Day 2 so I’m going to analyze that instead.
Shadow’s vote here is the opposite of King Torg, and had a decent chance of saving Osie.
Shadow or A Bear is Town
----------------
Colin also gets a massive reward of scumpoints for not voting /the entire Day phase/, which is both anti-Town and makes him hard to analyze with this method.
Normally I’d analyze the Osie wagon here, but I analyzed the beginning and don’t have enough townreads to derive info from the tail.
----------------
Day 2:
This implies anti-alignment between Grapefruit and DoTArchon and Killjoy/Grapefruit.
There’s a few reasons I don’t think Killjoy/DoTArchon have quite as a strong anti-alignment here, but given they’re already anti-aligned from the Vote Count 1.11 logic I don’t care to argue.
So: either DoTArchon or Grapefruit is Town (again) either Killjoy or Grapefruit is Town (again)
#508
Given Pizza’s massive walls on grapefruit, I have a hard time believing both are scum
So: either Pizza or Grapefruit is Town
Aggressive Worldbuilding:
I've found rather than trying to somehow sort premises based on reliability it's best to use them all and see what shakes out. Even if you've accidentally eliminated the actual team, I've found generally there's some sort of repeating pattern which is in the actual team.
Assembling all the conclusions together as premises:
Shadow wagon: DoTA or shadow is scum. if DoTA is Town so is Pizza
Votal 1.5: Pizza or Shadow is Town
Votal 1.7: DoTArchon or Tubba is Town.
Votal 1.8: grapefruit or DoTArchon is Town (Also votal 2.3) DoTArchon or Megiddo is Town
Votal 1.11: Shadow or DoTA is Town Shadow or grapefruit is Town (Also 1.12) TubbaFett or DoTA is Town TubbaFett or grapefruit is Town Killjoy or DoTA is Town Killjoy or grapefruit is Town (Also Votal 2.3)
#508: Pizza or grapefruit is Town
Pretty nice. Most interesting thing is shadow wagon implies DoTA or shadow is scum, and Votal 1.11 implies one of them is Town, so we can break the worlds down into the mutually exclusive scum!DoTA and scum!shadow worlds.
scum!DoTA:
Eliminated by anti-alignments:
Tubba, grapefruit, Mediggo, Killjoy
So if DoTA is scum, it’s only with DoTA/Colin/Pizza.
Scum!shadow:
Eliminated by anti-alignments:
Pizza, grapefruit.
So that’s a lot more flex, it’s
Shadow and any two of {TubbaFett, Megiddo, Colin, Kiljoy}. Writing them out:
Shadow/Tubba/Megiddo
Shadow/Tubba/Colin
Shadow/Tubba/Killjoy (This one is slightly odd due to Votal 1.7)
Shadow/Megiddo/Colin
Shadow/Megiddo/Killjoy
Shadow/Colin/Killjoy
Conclusions:
I want to investigate Shadow, but since he's active I'm not willing to turbo-lynch him. I don't want to lynch DoTA or grapefruit this Day phase. Best lynches are in {TubbaFett, Megiddo, Colin, Kiljoy}.
Sorting those by my regular reads, I'd put them TubbaFett < Killjoy < Colin < Megiddo. Probably need to re-ISO Megiddo
Vote: TubbaFett
Probably going to ISO Trog again. Not planning to re-iterate on DoTA since I've changed my mind there unless somebody asks me to.
-------------- @Megiddo Have you read the game yet? If not, when are you planning to finish that? Do you have any conclusions that aren't based on a single post?
Here's where he's scumreading me all of a sudden. I've never voted him all game, now suddenly I'm scum? Because he found an interaction with Torg? He claims I didn't fact check his response... except I wasn't looking for that, I was looking for his mindset. I got that. That's what I was looking for.
And "Me asking Jenna to explain a vote could be me notifying a scumbuddy to expand on a read, his post to Torg and then lack of follow through looks exactly the same to me..." is just trying to paint me as scum.
Finally, he's saying that you're further town now... which feels like buddying.
I never said anything about your vote, so I don't know how that factors into what you're saying here, and I was just pointing out that you did the same thig you raised an eyebrow at me for doing. How does me asking Jenna about her Shadow vote any different from you asking Torg about his vote?
@Voxx: Is it wise to bring that up now? Why paint a target on your head as a PR at the beginning of Day 2?
Let's just say I thought about it fully before bringing it up, and let wolves worry about what that means.
Well if you're town and you weren't blocked by a wolf, then you've given them information about yourself and other town. It seems to me that town doesn't really benefit from this information at the moment. You say you've "thought about it fully", but I still feel it's short-sighted.
With pizza coming out and saying he wasn't actually RoleBlocked, this feels like scum tmi. vote Colin
Colin, why did you immediately assuming a town roleblocker?
@Grapefruit: Why is Colin so strongly town?
I did not assume a town roleblocker. You should probably read messages better if you're going to comment on them.
I put forward the scenario where if he is town it is most harmful to town. If he is town and blocked by a wolf then the wolves already have that information and he is not harming town by sharing it.
@Pizza
I think you're pretty obviously agenda pushing, given how much you're focusing on persuading with theatrics rather than logic.
In particular I have no idea why you ISO'd Tubba(#502) and Jenna(#514) but not DoTA, your highest townread who has been aggro'd more than either. I would like you to make your case on town!DoTA similar to those posts.
The question I'm asking myself right now is "Is pizza trying to seize the lynch because he thinks town is wrong or is he scum covering for his buddy DoTA?"
I'm going to compile all my cases against DoTA together at some point this Day phase (yay extension) so you can respond to it, but I'm not remotely convinced by you pointing to a single post.
I haven't read the game but we should lynch Pizza today.
@Pizza
I've seen how effective your process can be from last game when you dragged town kicking and screaming to get its first lynch and start suspecting its second. So, I'll tip my tinfoil rakishly to the side, but there's too much going on with your slot for me to not put my vote there. Vote Pizza
An accusation based on alignments in... a previous game? Please, no. Tell me that is not A Thing That Can Happen.
(Garish to the narrative as well.)
Eye opening and confusing, Reaverb's analysis incites yearning for a Megiddo end. Tubba, Pizza, and Reaverb are my most trusted.
Beyond me. I miss the play, the battles of the snarky horse*****ometer. I feel like each opponent has been throughly defeated. There are no more opponents; all have conceded. Only decisions to be made.
The thing was Pizza wasn't caught lying. He caught his own slot lying and reported it back to us. That's the key difference to me. It's about the context of the lie, and Pizza didn't know what it was so he owned up rather than running with it. Like if someone else had caught them in a lie that damning then I'd lynch him in a heartbeat. But since he said it himself I am giving the benefit of the doubt.
food for thought... pizza lampshaded his predecessor's lie so that nobody else *could* call him out on it
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
How votal analysis works: (since a few posts by players this game has made it seem some players don’t know)
1) Scum tend not to vote one-right-after-the other on wagons. This is a manifestation of scum’s desire to be seen as “reasonable” more than wanting to actually find scum - they tend to want a Townie to “confirm” a wagon is reasonable before jumping on. Scum players do this instinctively without thinking about it. I think this tell is underused, because I recently analyzed a game for this tell and discovered scum voted together around 1/4th the rate you’d expect if player alignment didn’t matter for the probability of being wagon neighbors, and the scum specifically attempted to dodge this very tell.
2) Wagons on Townies tend to contain some scum. This has nothing to do with the “statistics” that any group of 5ish players is likely to contain a scum and everything to do with the fact that as a mislynch acquires more Townies it becomes a more and more desirable target of scum to vote on. Similar to rule of 3, this means wagons contain a scum/Town ratio with less variance than a completely random group of players.
3) Scum don’t like bussing. There are two specific places where scum are extremely unlikely to bus - when there is another wagon on a townie of similar size, or very early (First 3 votes).
All these are subject to being given more or less credence due to context. Votal analysis isn’t a magic formula and more a system of detecting scum behavior which is likely to fall through the cracks otherwise, and to determine how your reads interact before players involved have flipped.
Scum is at least one in {DoTA / Voxx / shadow}, I don't think any combinations are ruled out. I recall shadow suggesting it could be all Town, but I don't buy that - TubbaFett, Colin and King Torg could have all jumped on as it was forming, and there was no reason the wagon had to stop when Jenna voted, other players could have hopped on later. I've lost more EV by undertrusting votal analysis than overtrusting it. Former two not getting on looks bad for shadow.
“Preview” edit: Given what Pizza has done since I started working on this, I’m convinced Pizza is not scum unless DoTA is also scum. This implies either DoTA or shadow is scum. and if DoTA is Town so is Pizza.
Voxx vote would be more distancing than turbo-bussing, which seems off Voxx's scum MO.
I don't think Jenna is a wolf outside this but I will mention that I think Jenna/shadow is never w/w.
Hmm given the Voxx vs. shadow thing here, probably at least one of Voxx and shadow are Town. I don't see them attacking each other but making up and being best buddies this Day phase. (Although Voxx hasn't exactly given shadow glowing praise).
So that conclusion is: Voxx or Shadow is Town
DoTA wagon should be analyzed on how it grows, so I'll look at it later.
Wow this makes me mad at the Osie lynch all over again.
So one of DoTArchon/Tubba Fett/Killjoy is scum, but that’s more because they’re all scummy than votal analysis. What’s more interesting is that one or two of them is probably Town.
I don’t think DoTArchon/Tubba is w/w there. Tubba Fett/Killjoy looks less solid given that TubbaFett is being wagonned, so it might override the natural scum instinct to spread out.
Vote Count 1.8 DoTArchon - 3 (Jenna Tolaria, King Torg, A Bear)
osieorb18 - 3 (DoTArchon, Tubba Fett, Killjoy)
King Torg / A Bear’s votes on DoTArchon are notable, since we know they’re counterwagonning a mislynch. I strongly doubt either is scum with DoTArchon, or scum with each other.
So either grapefruit or DoTArchon is Town either DoTArchon or King Torg is Town either grapefruit or King Torg is Town See Votal 1.11 analysis
Vote Count 1.11 osieorb18 - 4 (DoTArchon, Tubba Fett, Killjoy, King Torg) (L-3)
A Bear - 3 (Vaimes, Voxxicus, osieorb18)
DoTArchon - 2 (Jenna Tolaria, A Bear)
This votal is very interesting.
Note that King Torg has just moved from DoTA, breaking the 3-3-3 pattern.
From between when it was 3-3-3 with Osie’s vote on Bear and Torg breaking it, the following players posted:
Shadow
Killjoy
TubbaFett
(myself for completeness)
That implies these players didn’t really care which of {DotArchon/Osie/A Bear} got lynched. If any of these are scum, it’s probable they couldn’t move the lynch away from a scumbuddy in that list.
Shadow, TubbaFett, and Killjoy don’t make sense with DoTArchon or A Bear
King Torg’s vote there looks like a move to save Bear-slot. I went up and strikethough’d my original conclusion that King Torg / A Bear aren’t w/w, that’s enough to null it.
Only thing interesting that happens through EoD is shadow moving onto Bear and back off, I think have a much stronger shadow/grapefruit anti-align tell during Day 2 so I’m going to analyze that instead.
Shadow’s vote here is the opposite of King Torg, and had a decent chance of saving Osie.
Shadow or A Bear is Town
----------------
Colin also gets a massive reward of scumpoints for not voting /the entire Day phase/, which is both anti-Town and makes him hard to analyze with this method.
Normally I’d analyze the Osie wagon here, but I analyzed the beginning and don’t have enough townreads to derive info from the tail.
----------------
Day 2:
This implies anti-alignment between Grapefruit and DoTArchon and Killjoy/Grapefruit.
There’s a few reasons I don’t think Killjoy/DoTArchon have quite as a strong anti-alignment here, but given they’re already anti-aligned from the Vote Count 1.11 logic I don’t care to argue.
So: either DoTArchon or Grapefruit is Town (again) either Killjoy or Grapefruit is Town (again)
#508
Given Pizza’s massive walls on grapefruit, I have a hard time believing both are scum
So: either Pizza or Grapefruit is Town
Aggressive Worldbuilding:
I've found rather than trying to somehow sort premises based on reliability it's best to use them all and see what shakes out. Even if you've accidentally eliminated the actual team, I've found generally there's some sort of repeating pattern which is in the actual team.
Assembling all the conclusions together as premises:
Shadow wagon: DoTA or shadow is scum. if DoTA is Town so is Pizza
Votal 1.5: Pizza or Shadow is Town
Votal 1.7: DoTArchon or Tubba is Town.
Votal 1.8: grapefruit or DoTArchon is Town (Also votal 2.3) DoTArchon or Megiddo is Town
Votal 1.11: Shadow or DoTA is Town Shadow or grapefruit is Town (Also 1.12) TubbaFett or DoTA is Town TubbaFett or grapefruit is Town Killjoy or DoTA is Town Killjoy or grapefruit is Town (Also Votal 2.3)
#508: Pizza or grapefruit is Town
Pretty nice. Most interesting thing is shadow wagon implies DoTA or shadow is scum, and Votal 1.11 implies one of them is Town, so we can break the worlds down into the mutually exclusive scum!DoTA and scum!shadow worlds.
scum!DoTA:
Eliminated by anti-alignments:
Tubba, grapefruit, Mediggo, Killjoy
So if DoTA is scum, it’s only with DoTA/Colin/Pizza.
Scum!shadow:
Eliminated by anti-alignments:
Pizza, grapefruit.
So that’s a lot more flex, it’s
Shadow and any two of {TubbaFett, Megiddo, Colin, Kiljoy}. Writing them out:
Shadow/Tubba/Megiddo
Shadow/Tubba/Colin
Shadow/Tubba/Killjoy (This one is slightly odd due to Votal 1.7)
Shadow/Megiddo/Colin
Shadow/Megiddo/Killjoy
Shadow/Colin/Killjoy
Conclusions:
I want to investigate Shadow, but since he's active I'm not willing to turbo-lynch him. I don't want to lynch DoTA or grapefruit this Day phase. Best lynches are in {TubbaFett, Megiddo, Colin, Kiljoy}.
Sorting those by my regular reads, I'd put them TubbaFett < Killjoy < Colin < Megiddo. Probably need to re-ISO Megiddo
Vote: TubbaFett
Probably going to ISO Trog again. Not planning to re-iterate on DoTA since I've changed my mind there unless somebody asks me to.
-------------- @Megiddo Have you read the game yet? If not, when are you planning to finish that? Do you have any conclusions that aren't based on a single post?
no plans to do so currently; if there's anything in particular I should really be reading let me know.
not sure what conclusions you're expecting me to have yet, but keep posting. i'm reading everything since I came in.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
no plans to do so currently; if there's anything in particular I should really be reading let me know.
not sure what conclusions you're expecting me to have yet, but keep posting. i'm reading everything since I came in.
How do you plan to find the Mafia if you're not going to read the thread?
I don't expect you to have any particular conclusions, but I expect you to have some opinion on who the mafia are.
see bolded; unless you think the scum are completely blended in and won't do anything catchable after post #528 this is kind of ?? for me
also, this may just be semantics, but wouldn't "opinion on who the mafia are" be "conclusions?"
Yes, they're the same. I don't expect you to have a specific conclusion, but I expect you to have some arbitrary conclusions.
It strikes me as really weird that you're ignoring the early parts of the thread. To turn you argument on it's head, do you think mafia did something catchable before post #528?
almost certainly, the early game is usually a goldmine of information. sometimes you can catch newbscum or folks who aren't comfortable with their scumgame in their first post!
so.
I mean what do you want out of me here. I'm not really getting a sense for why you're pushing this point on me.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
almost certainly, the early game is usually a goldmine of information. sometimes you can catch newbscum or folks who aren't comfortable with their scumgame in their first post!
I agree you can often catch scum on their early posts!
Vote: Megiddo
(For the class: Megiddo's claim that the early game has information but he still isn't going to read it shows a ludicrous lack of Town mindset to solve the game, and #530 shows he is to some degree lying about not reading the thread anyway.)
almost certainly, the early game is usually a goldmine of information. sometimes you can catch newbscum or folks who aren't comfortable with their scumgame in their first post!
I agree you can often catch scum on their early posts!
Vote: Megiddo
(For the class: Megiddo's claim that the early game has information but he still isn't going to read it shows a ludicrous lack of Town mindset to solve the game, and #530 shows he is to some degree lying about not reading the thread anyway.)
There it is, thanks. You can lead with the vote next time, it's OK.
Couple things for you:
First: do you think I am being truthful about not reading the game up until the point of my replacement? For full disclosure, I did read my role PM. I also read the OP and the replace-in post (which had the vote count). But I didn't read any content posts from before my replace-in. I won't attempt to self meta, but I do think it would be disastrously irresponsible to my team if I were scum and pulling this particular stunt, considering the landmines one might step in with the approach.
I ask this because you just now said I'm "to some degree" lying about not reading the thread. As I explained above to Colin, my comment on Vaimes was about Meta. A [Voxx/Pizza] feels like a much stronger NK slot than Vaimes, from having played with all three of those players several times before. Seeing that NK choice got the wheels turning and informed my later post about lynching Pizza.
I'd like to know what degree you think I am lying about this, why you think it, and why this makes me scum.
Changing topics: Turning questions on head as you did, what is the *scum* mindset to not reading? You seem to think I'm not trying to solve; why is this? I did ask you specifically to point me to anything I "should really be reading," but instead of doing that you did... this.
Secondarily, you're using a false argument here, which is that I am scum for leaving solving options on the table (the early game posts that I haven't read). Why is this? You seem to be neglecting that I might be using other solving techniques. The early game posts will always be there for me to read, but you're posting here and now and I can engage you in the moment. I find this to be a valid solving technique. Do you? If so, why would *not* using a different solving technique make me scum?
Let me know if you think that paragraph is mischaracterizing what you're saying. Happy to hash that one out.
I'm here for another... eh, 15 minutes? gotta catch up in my other game before I sleep.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
I find it scummy you're ignoring potential evidence when we have 25 hours to decide a lynch, and you also have no plans to review it at some point in the future. I don't think a Townie would ignore solving the game to that degree. Scum have a couple motivations for that though - primarily being lazy and giving themselves the freedom to move onto however as advances their mafia win condition.
I think you lied to exact degree you just admitted: you read the OP and nothing else from before you replaced in. This is mostly tangential to my main point.
I'm going to throw down where I'm at. If I get your gender wrong I'm sorry, I'm just typing instinctively and I have no idea who any of you are (apart from the Bear).
The most important thing I think town should know about me is that I am an emotional player and tend to trust my feelings and instinct more than actual content, but only if those feelings are especially strong. Also, this doesn't mean I don't take note of content because I do. I'll to give a loose example; if I have a strong feeling that someone is mafia, they'll have to produce more substantial content from a town perspective than someone who I have no strong feelings about in order for me to read them town. Of course the opposite applies too.
Reaverb Tau;
I still have issues with the opening, but I've been over that in a previous post so I'm not going to push this point further at this stage.
The rest of the content has a town tone to it, and there's a few good points in his push on Tubba (which holds a lot more weight if osie is town), and his round-up of the game so far is pretty good I think.
shadowlancerx;
Upon re-reading I've flipped on him. I read his opening town. It seems natural and uninhibited. It's looking like he's eager to get in to the game and get actual information flowing.
I don't really have anything to add to this. The rest of his posts I'm getting a slightly town tone read, but nothing is jumping out as either alignment.
Vaimes;
Now this is an opening that I don't like. The interaction with Voxx comes across as someone trying too hard to blend in. The short posts of no actual value in quick succession is creating the illusion of content. The interaction with shadow is one that doesn't leave a good taste in my mouth either, shadow's looking for a more in depth answer to his question and isn't too happy with what he's given on the first two attempts. His post reads that he is begrudgingly accepting that he's getting nothing more, and then Vaimes elaborates. I feel that going out of the way to appease shadow after twice before not bothering is scummy. It's like Vaimes suddenly realised that there might be some sort of consequence for this exchange. This was followed up by an attempt to poke back which was limp at best. I'll point out again, that I have flipped my opinion on the opening since my initial post about it.
I'm partially going to trust Bear's read for now. I don't usually do this, but there are other people I'm town-reading that seem to be rading Vaimes town too.
osieorb:
Jumping back on to the shadow wagon for flimsy reasoning made me think that osie's thought proess was something along the lines of "Yey, now I have a reason to vote for the wagon leader." which is not good. The coming off looks like an attempt to be townie rather than genuine.
Switching the gimmick didn't seem natural to me. Why do it? If you're not happy with the first gimmick then drop it and play. It's not helpful to bounce around attempting to be funny.
There's a growing pattern of addressing the flimsiest things in the thread and responding to them rather than actually engaging in the content.
Then along comes some actual content leaving me unsure on exactly what to think about her. It's frustrating. The later the posts, the more I like her though. The teardown of Jenna provides a lot of substantial evidence that I'm waiting to see a response to. If I was to ignore the first half of the game she's one of my top towns.
Voxxicus:
There are no specific moments, but the in the first 70 posts or so I feel really comfortable with Voxx. He just feels safe to me.
I do like him questioning the shadow wagon, and the thought process in his post about Vaimes seems pure. It's not my interpretation, but I have no history to go off and these two clearly do.
Jenna Tolaria: I like that she poked at my opening. It was devoid of substance and just a bit of RP fun. It's also done in a very townie way maybe, there's no real pressure there, but she wants to make sure that it's out there to be seen?
The random capitalisation really puts me off. I can't tell how much that's affecting my read. I'm not sure her logic and pushes are all that consistent though. There's been a fair bit of evasive behaviour too. Some of which osie pointed out.
DoTArchon:
DoT is the opposite situation to Voxx for me. The posts I read make me uncomfortable, and he's someone I want to stay away from.
The switching to osie after others have questioned her behaviour is scummy too. Why not bring that up earlier? This looks like some who's jumping on to town to be part of something wholesome.
Tubba Fett:
I don't like the asking about the expected number of mafia. It feels like a question a mafia would ask in an attempt at getting some town credit.
Going on from that, Tubba's posts are pretty much a guide to how not to post as mafia. This is especially clear in the poor response to RT and osie throwing some pressure on him.
King Torg:
I really don't like people claiming mafia.
That's all I have. What have you actually done?
A Bear:
The first content post is really good. It's a thought process that is agreeing with a lot of what I have. She's pointing out the right things in the right way and then adding on some local knowledge. Speaking of which, here's some from me. Bear wants me to play this game and is trying to constructively poke me and get me to interact more. As a wolf she has no real advantage in doing so (apart from trying to get me onside, but who cares about me?).
Killjoy:
Flattery will get you everywhere. Seriously though, it was a good entrance showing the thought process as he reads though the thread.
To be perfectly honest I'm so emotional on this one because I lost Empoof and that's all I can think about when I see Killjoy. "You're not Empoof"
To summarise;
Townsfolk; Colin, Reaverb Tau, A Bear
Living in the outskirts; Vaimes, osieorb, Voxxicus, Killjoy
Just visiting; shadowlancerx, King Torg
Banished; Jenna Tolaria, DoTArchon, Tubba Fett
This is a great catch up post. I like the progressions it shows, the willingness to admit that reads changed, and the admission of biases. I also like the trusting of bear. It could be a pocketing attempt, but it would be very brazen to attempt to pocket your offsite friend. I also love the reaction to Jenna here. Just feels comfortable and relaxed.
I really like this response to Tau. Tau blasts colin's argument on KJ and Colin doesn't flinch and explains the read in more detail, the confidence reads really well.
This Tubba iso is the post of colin's that gives me the most pause. It reads well on tone and effort. But it feels like it has an agenda. There isn't a single post of Tubba's that Colin gives a positive reaction too and I just don't believe that at all. So it becomes a wine matter of figuring out if Colin is the type to tunnel hard or to be that brazen as scum. Both feel unlikely, but a tunnel seems more plausible, especially given the quality of the rest of Colin's posts.
Additionally and this comes after the question was asked, but Colin has a good response to Meg's entrance.
@Megs why are you inviting us to drink wine on how much of the game you've read?
And Pizza clearly was trying to lampshade the lie so he couldn't get called out on it. But that doesn't make it scummy or prevent it from being townie...
Tubba: Why Pizza over... literally any other scummy person this game?
I've been having tinfoil issues with Voxx and with with the whole roleblocking shinanigans, but that paranoia is def not a good reason to lynch someone on D2.
Why are you tinfoiling with that claim and retraction? If anything I think I'm get town vibes from Pizza retracting it. Feels like scum replacing in would have stuck with a lie and tried to make it work. Imo there are reasons to be suspicious of Pizza but they center around the fact that both him and Voxx have been very protective of Dota. And I'd rather lynch Dota because he's actually been scummy.
I'm not tinfoiling about the retraction. I'm tinfoiling about Voxx claiming it in the first place.
Its not like him to make a claim that potentially gives so much info to the scum. Also he was spewing a lot of wine D1, which made me look a little sideways, but I still trusted my reputation read on him.
The roleblock thing just felt too out there, so I'm wondering if I was too quick to dismiss him.
Now, since we're talking about the slot: Pizza has used a lot of words, and I'm not sure what they mean for his alignment. I was really impressed with his play in Low Fantasy, and he has the capacity to be wrong obv (Anak) but I'm not sure I like his position on me.
I'll be honest though, I haven't REALLY taken the time to get in there and dig into his brain and see whats lurking there.
Here's where he's scumreading me all of a sudden. I've never voted him all game, now suddenly I'm scum? Because he found an interaction with Torg? He claims I didn't fact check his response... except I wasn't looking for that, I was looking for his mindset. I got that. That's what I was looking for.
And "Me asking Jenna to explain a vote could be me notifying a scumbuddy to expand on a read, his post to Torg and then lack of follow through looks exactly the same to me..." is just trying to paint me as scum.
Finally, he's saying that you're further town now... which feels like buddying.
I never said anything about your vote, so I don't know how that factors into what you're saying here, and I was just pointing out that you did the same thig you raised an eyebrow at me for doing. How does me asking Jenna about her Shadow vote any different from you asking Torg about his vote?
My point is: You were townreading me forever, then with no indication whatsoever, it changed to a scumread, seemingly because you were voting King Torg and I voted you for it.No you did not mention my vote but it happened and seems to correspond to your scumread on me.
***** Deadline is tomorrow. I'm going to ISO shadow, King Torg, Tubba, Grapefruit and Colin to see what I can see there. I'm obviosuly for lynching DotA but no one else seems to want to.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Tubba:
I'm seeing some positive tonal reads. His 136 is one I'd point out specifically as sounding natural.
Hm. But at the same time, 198 feels slightly preconstructed. Specifically the "Did I just solve this *****" part seems awkwardly tacked on the end of it.
Question/Note: How likely is scum to state they want to lynch someone becuase they can't understand them? Seem odd for scum to be that blatent.
I'm gonna slot him as heavily leaning town. Positive tone, plus some other things like my note up there. Also, I found him pretty easily in Low Fantasy and I'm not sure he can improve his scumgame that quickly especially considering he's never been town.
Colin:
I still feel like there's kind of a large disconnect between where his descriptions (in 158) place his reads and the reads list itself... but he's explained that and I can't prove otherwise so... I'll just have to let that feeling go.
However, he does do this weird thing in his descriptions where his entire read seems to be scumreading a person and in the last sentence of it he kind of... changes it? Like, his read of Vaimes. The whole post is about not liking Vaimes, then ends it with "I'm trusting Bear/some other townreads that he's town." The other notable one is osie: "if he forgets the first half of the game, he's his top townread".
I just... don't see a reason to want to forget half of someone's posts when trying to read them.
Hindsight: Osie and Vaimes were both town, and he had kinda fencesitty townreads on them at the end.
I ask him about the disconnect, and his answers aren't BAD but they also aren't GREAT.
So. His 346 is all about Tubba. I just read Tubba. I... don't agree with it.
Question: Is it a hit post made my scum, or tunnelly town?
Notes: Some of these points are just... bad, like "If you have no experience with Bear, why the RVS?" Why is that a scum thing? He really seems to have it out for Tubba. I wish people knew him so I could ask if this is typical behaviour for him.
Answer: I'm leaning hit post. Everything is negative about him, but unlike me he didn't notice and take inventory. That's weird to me.
I'm also not getting anything tonal one way or the other.
I'd be willing to lynch Colin today.
Shadow:
Came into the game really solvy, which normally I like but recently read an article that scum are very likely to do that too. I'm willing to differ to my personal feelings since it's not specific as to what solvy means.
Not a huge fan of "confirming" votes. It's a nail-in-the-coffin drama tactic that town aren't super prone to in my experience.
His wagon popped up fast. One (i think) was RVS and the rest were legit. Note: only possible scum on wagon are Jenna/PizzaVoxx/DotA. If shadow is scum, could be all town. If shadow is town, very likely one of them is scum. Again, probably not two of them.
Further note: PizzaVoxx vote was RVS.
Also scumreading Jenna for being unreadable, but not as blatent as Tubba. Says its because he doesn't trust her instead of just saying 'I can't be bothered to figure it out'.
232: "I don't wanna lynch Vaimes or Voxx because they'll both die to NKs." I didn't notice this before. I'm not sure I like this statement.I mean, I guess they theoretically are the best analysts in the game but if scum!Voxx this is a good way to fake a townread on his buddy.
Sees three wagons at 3 votes near deadline and votes off the wagon. If it wasn't so close to deadline I'd give him townie points for it for going against the grain so much. As it stands, there's a motive available that he could be parking his vote off the wagons to make a mislynch more likely.
Caveat: He later votes Bear and Osie to avoid a mislynch, so its maybe not that?
Continues pushing Reaver start of D2. I don't recall a wagon on him. Ok.
I like his recent questions.
Hm. I think shadow gets a townlean and a 'not willing to lynch' from me. Bare minimum we have better targets.
**** I'm tired. I'll do Bearfruit and King Meg in the morning after SLEEP.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I see I'm not getting the required help I need to lynch scum Grapefruit.
Seeing my villagers vote irrationally and divided does not give me good feelings about how this game is going to end.
I can't be bothered to put more effort into this game under these circumstances.
Grapefruit should hang, Tubba is off on a tangent thanks to Voxx playing fancy, and I am not a big fan of Shadow voting for Colin.
I don't believe either Grapefruit or Killjoy are townies. So, you're forcing me to lynch three deep into my scum pile, which is fine, since Megiddo either isn't town or won't be worth anything to town anyway.
Askthepizzaguy's vote in #576 was not counted due to the presence of a period within the bold tags.
Unaddressed errors in this vote count? PM me on MTGS or Discord, I'll get it sorted.
Answer me this, any other player gets outright caught lying to town, what should happen to them?
I'm not even the one who lied, but I'll tell you this.
On other sites, in games with detectives, most games, vanilla townies claim to have peek results, so the actual cop can reveal them while not outing himself. This is called fakepeeking.
Another common tactic for vanilla townies is to claim a power or act like they have one to draw a murder. That's what Voxx did here. I am not a vanilla townie but the power I have is ~worthless. I have a bag of tricks, like being able to send a message to another player. Not helpful since I don't have an investigatory power.
Voxx was just trying to draw a kill. The main reason why I denied that move, was because after I die, it will be revealed that I have an active power, or at least one active power (the message, for example). But, because he claimed to be roleblocked, if I die town will believe that he was roleblocked on night one and that means that town will have been fed incorrect information from a then-confirmed townie.
That's almost as bad as leaving the wrong peeks when you're actually a cop. Voxx was not roleblocked on N1 and I immediately opened the game by clarifying his lie.
But I can give you more lies. I've claimed cop with a guilty peek on someone as a vanilla townie before, and gotten guilty people lynched, then I got killed and was revealed to be a vanilla townie. I've claimed correct innocent peeks on people and been killed, thinking I was the cop that way.
One time I was the cop and claimed to be bulletproof on day 1 in my opening post and asked "for the cop to scan me" and if they found me guilty to feel free to reveal me, and if not, keep silent. I went on to scan 3 guilty people that game, without doctor protection. Town won because I lied.
I happen to lie often as town. Mafia assume that townies tell the truth, but this is a game of lying. And lies can be effective.
I could have come in here today with a guilty peek on Grapefruit and said lynch him, he's guilty. I think he's that guilty where I'd hit scum a large amount of the time if I made such a claim, and got him lynched.
The problem with that is I've seen townies do that and hit a townie. And Grapefruit, well, he looks guilty enough as it stands. His iso and bear's iso are ridiculously, sickeningly scummy. Almost tom-last-game levels of scummy. If you don't lynch him this game I'm pretty sure that's GG to the town.
Instead, you folks have been focused on shiny distracting things. I feel like because I'm pushing there, some of you don't even want to look at grapefruit, you want to go hunt your own wolves. I applaud that, but, you know, don't let the guy who is openly wolfing go.
If town lynches Dota, Tubba, or Colin tomorrow, you will be doing so over my dead body, which will be spinning.
Megiddo probably flips wolf here, but that doesn't help you. If you lynch the scums in the wrong order, they get away, and have greater control over the narrative. King Torg had no village points and Megiddo entered the game scummily, he's an easy get if he's scum.
You keep overlooking Grapefruit and it will bite you in the ass come endgame.
As hypocritical as it is for me to talk about disappointing behaviour, I am disappointed at the replacements going on but it's not like I can do anything about it. It's especially disappointing that I can't talk to Voxx and establish what on Earth was going on. I've got a few theories about the whole situation, but nothing that worth pursuing given the circumstances. Going on from that at this point I've only skim-read a lot of pizza's posts. There's a lot of content to go through there, which is nice but I'm struggling to get it all inside my head right now. My initial evaluation is why would a wolf that's subbed in to a slot that's in no great danger put in this level of an effort? From the content I have read fully and the volume there I'm feel this is someone that wants to get the game moving and actually finding some wolves. going from the initial read and on to something more substantial I'm going to stick this slot back in town and just ignore the roleblock shenanigans for now.
With there being just over a day until deadline, I need to look in to the people on the chopping board some more so I'm not going to worry too much about not going through every word from pizza.
I'll be amazed if we don't lose villagers to inactivity. As every round requires a set number of people to vote, and people don't show up for days on end and can't be bothered to make sensible votes when they do, we could lynch 2 scums back to back here and still lose the game.
But, fair is fair. If I'm reading this game right, every wolf has been replaced.
That's gotta suck for them. Town loses this game because they want to lose the game, in my opinion.
Voxx really didn't need to bother drawing the kill. Widely townread and apparently is a fear kill a lot of the time anyway.
I could have kept quiet about his lie easily, but if it came down to a mass claim come endgame, someone could claim town roleblocker, they could intentionally not kill that night, and force any lynch they want. Having a dead confirmed townie telling you they were roleblocked when they were not is potentially game losing mechanically.
This is me being fastidious. Any lie I make is not designed to ruin the game even if it goes badly. I've fake claimed masons with a fellow vanilla townie before, but we both came clean when we got CCed.
At that point, town decided all 4 of us were innocent and they were right. And town still lost because they lynched the guilty people in the wrong order and the scum that bussed won.
It matters which guilty person dies. I've won so many games killing my own partners in an unexpected order. Megiddo is being left out to dry here. Grapefruit was the one they can't afford to lose.
Grapefruit goes down, and then King Torg/Megiddo still look guilty. Grapefruit is the one that town is divided on. Shadow even suspected him and backed off because of a single post I could make in my sleep if I were scum.
Everyone else who accused that slot will be dead soon. The remaining villagers don't have their heads on when it comes to that slot and won't lynch him.
He'll just start posting better and you'll let him go.
That's how town loses. They accuse all the right people but trip over themselves and then get distracted by the shiny and then everyone who would have lynched the right people is already dead.
Not saying I don't trust you guys to reassess, but, the game is listless and town is rudderless. That kills morale and you'll be much less apt to solve correctly once you misfire again. You'll start listening to whoever makes good posts and forget that most wolves get caught based on their early game behavior which is analyzable in retrospect.
Scums who have no buddies to lose can post well because now they're exactly like a townie. Lynch outside of yourself and make good cases.
That's different and much more easily faked behavior than the early game where they're trying to either preserve a team, coordinate mislynches, or use distancing tactics. All are visible.
Nothing's visible when one wolf is by himself. That's why you need to look backward.
Tired of town losing after nailing buckets of scums and letting one slip away.
That's the frustration I'm getting here. I'd cfd off of Megs if I thought I could get grape lynched and I think both are guilty.
He's the one whose card you need to see to believe it. He's the one who will get away.
But I'm staying put because people will not show up and we didn't get a larger extension. I can't even look at Tau tonight. So I didn't get to investigate the entire player roster. He could be deep, I don't even know, because I couldn't look.
Alright Pizza, maybe I did back up from grapefruit too quickly, and I'm willing to lynch him if we can get the people to do so, but when you say that every wolf replaced, something doesn't seem right about that; why would scum replace out in a game like this where town are not actively solving?
unvote
This isn't just because it's unlikely that Tubba will get traction today, I believe there are people that have moved ahead of him to be lynched.
I feel there are wolves in the replacements too, but perhaps not all of the team.
I have concerns about Grapefruit. It's really selfish, but I'm most baffled by his read on me. It really feels like an "I know he's town" post. It's quite a hefty town-read to give someone who's not under any pressure and a lot of it feels like a pocket attempt, but why pocket me? I don't know, I'm really wavering on how I feel about this. Initially I thought it was town, especially for the evaluation of me on Tubba. Since then I've thought it's more scummy as there's no real need to post that in depth of a read on me as town. If I'm reading someone as town I don't tend to investigate and explain any further than necessary, I need to spend my time gathering evidence against my scum-reads. I think overall I'm reading it as a scum-post for providing little actual content, and definitely nothing necessary right now. It also provides a call-back for Grape to say "I told you so" if/when I flip. There's just this thing in my head screaming at me that these are the type of things that I can completely mis-read and maybe Grape's just town with a strong read. After all, the read is not incorrect.
I'm sorry for that being a bit of a messy ramble and a selfish based post, but I want to get this thought out there. I'm just still struggling with it and wanting it out there before end of day.
Alright Pizza, maybe I did back up from grapefruit too quickly, and I'm willing to lynch him if we can get the people to do so
Taking a break from isoing Tau, I began to respond to this post but it's getting near my word limit and I'm just over-explaining things.
This is the tl;dr bulletpoint version-
Thank you for being willing to take a closer look at him again.
Just to be very clear, there is no subtext in my earlier posts, I have neither a peek nor a fakepeek on him. It was all hypothetical.
The time remaining in the round makes there be a lot of downsides to CFDing. Among those being a lack of enough heads up to get him to claim, if he had something exonerating or mechanically relevant to say. I don't believe it would be anything less than a scum fakeclaim when it happened, but on the chance I read him wrong, that's a risk. The time to push him was when I made the case and in the days since, here it's too few hours, even if I think it's the best lynch.
This lynch also helps you townread Dota if Megs flips scum. That was the next biggest concern.
Too many townies are being scum read by other townies, if my analysis of the game is close to accurate. Even if were to lynch a scum here, where does that leave the rest of you? I can be killed. A town that town reads each other takes too long to kill. That's more important. Now the opportunity presents itself to get other townies on board with Dota being town, which forces someone who was mislynch bait into the must kill pile. Every time we do that, it makes the game state harsher for the wolf team.
That is what I'd be giving up if I insisted on CFDing in the short time remaining. Although I think we'd be in better shape with Grapefruit dead, we are also really short on townies who can't be lynched in that universe, I think.
Nothing is harder than hitting the last wolf. If I've gotten you to be less complacent about Grapefruit, then that is acceptable.
If Grapefruit is to be made a suspect by many, and pushed seriously, I'd like for the full process to be used on him, so corrections can be made. The CFD is great if it was on a townie and moved to a scum, it's more likely to just be confusing if it's on a wolf and lands on another wolf. And if it's on a wolf now and lands on a villager, the game state is almost not able to be recovered.
I think if either grapefruit or megiddo claims something, it's fake, but I don't feel comfortable making that call while everyone else is absent. If we lynch we do it together, with the proper time for discussion.
Just, a lot of thoughts, explained in too much detail. Hopefully this much shorter post makes sense.
unvote
This isn't just because it's unlikely that Tubba will get traction today, I believe there are people that have moved ahead of him to be lynched.
I feel there are wolves in the replacements too, but perhaps not all of the team.
I have concerns about Grapefruit. It's really selfish, but I'm most baffled by his read on me. It really feels like an "I know he's town" post. It's quite a hefty town-read to give someone who's not under any pressure and a lot of it feels like a pocket attempt, but why pocket me?
If I were to speculate, you specifically would be pocketed because they intend to kill more influential people in the game, so they can control the narrative.
You can be correct and still be less of a threat because you post less often, with larger amounts of time between your posts, and because you are under suspicion.
Pocketing you means that you might change your read on grapefruit, you might be mislynched later, or even if you had all correct reads, you're unlikely to be persuasive enough. Basically, pocketing you means exactly that the scums believe they can win with you alive, and that doesn't even mean your reads are wrong.
That's why folks like Voxx tend to go earlier. Voxx, rhand, people who are well known for reading people right or at the very least being influential, or difficult to lynch.
You have 19 posts and no established reputation. The metagame is what it is, and even if you're playing the game very well, which I happen to think you are, you are still less scary, and the scums feel they can handle you. You'll even doubt yourself if your reads are correct and then you don't die. The advantages of keeping you alive are many. So, they'd decide this early on to pocket you.
You also happen to look town to me so that can happen naturally.
The read that concerns me the most from Grapefruit isn't you, even though it looks like inside knowledge.
Grapefruit putting me as town here is also something that shouldn't be happening. He's seen my scum game firsthand on this site. His responses to me and the rest of his posts are all controlled, and any townie I'm accusing this hard should not feel in control. It feels a lot like how Lngrrr responded to my accusation in Low Fantasy. It's too controlled.
I made almost any mislynch I wanted happen in Final Fantasy and grapefruit saw it. I can also produce long ISOs out of thin air with minimal effort.
He should be less sure I'm town than he appears to be. It's just calculated to make him appear reasonable, in my view.
I wouldn't be this harsh in my assessment of him if Bear hadn't struggled so much when they were posting, and especially that part where they pushed their own townie read in many worlds and encouraged their lynch. It would still feel wrong to me, but Bear's posts are classic wolf that is having trouble being a wolf, masking it with words and post length.
If what they said took fewer words, people would be looking over those posts a bit more carefully, I think... they'd be seeing a nonexistent solving process or one that they obviously don't believe since they're doing the opposite of what their process says to do.
If I'm to believe someone is a townie I have to believe they believe what they're doing solves the game. Bear utterly failed to do that in the big post I highlighted in my last response to Grapefruit.
Scratch that. I apparently was thinking of one of the sub-outs in FF2, grapefruit wasn't in final fantasy at all on further examination, not even for a little bit. Don't know how I got them confused.
So he hasn't seen me scum before, as far as I know. Weakens my point, but... still. It's an awfully stoic response to kitchen sink mode.
I can tell by reading Tau's game that he's a highly advanced player, and as such, a lot of stuff I'd normally town read a player for, I set back to null.
Even so, one post near the end pushed all the way into blue territory under those conditions.
That plus the extreme quality of all the other posts, and multiple difficult-to-obtain teal posts, means Tau is either a townie, or I cannot catch this player from their posts alone, I'd need a guilty result to lynch them.
And when that becomes the case, that's a gg well played game. If I start lynching people like that I might as well roll dice to determine the lynch.
This puts Tau above Tubba on my list.
------------------------------------------------
6- rvs vote
7- I can't read into this for alignment, but the process here makes sense. He wants more from this one person so that he can read them. I don't see this post being significantly more likely to come from a townie than rand, however. Sounds reasonable enough to be faked.
63- Point 2a is deep and complex, and very specific. It's tough to remember to fake stuff like this. I even rather like point 2b.
"Vote: DoTArchon
They voted shadow in #9, had an immediate mind-meld with Shadow on my posts with #10 (Shadow) and #11 (DoTArchon), and then didn't comment on the near-identical questions or retract their vote on Shadow even though shadow has become the top wagon."
I can believe this process is real. Thing is, a vote placed that early is often not very serious, and people need to be posting once the wagon becomes huge to indicate that they're okay with that, and both of those things can be misleading if read into. So the process is sloppy, in my view, but I can believe it's real.
"I'd prefer you say why you think Vaimes is mafia now."
NAI, but I also like this for process reasons.
70- The "empirical evidence" comment is a bit flowery for language but I also depend on stuff that's actually written in the thread (or not written, in certain rare circumstances). It's gotta be evidence or a suspicious absence of evidence for me to take it seriously. So I like that process. But more to the point, "Do you believe hiding the 2-3 players who you think can read you is better for Town than revealing them? If so, why?" is also solid in response to Vaimes.
73- looks like solving reasoning and solving questions.
77- good follow up.
128- Attacks Tubba based on process, in a way.
"Basically: He has an RVS vote, notes something scummy on DotArchon, then votes what's basically another RVS vote instead of moving to DotArchon.
Particularly since "flailing" doesn't accurately describe Osie, they have several clear opinions once you read though there bizarre post restrictions.
This doesn't effect my read on DotArchon because it could be either setting up for a potential bus or trying to push a mislynch without getting on."
This is obviously an open book player who reveals process as they're doing it. Which is good. Sorry to say, I don't remember much about reaverb from GITP, it's been a long time. But they were also not as big on process there, and it feels like reaverb is more comfortable in a place where day 1 can include a serious attempt at solving.
133- solid process.
135- process is almost too good here. Again, I forget that day chat with wolves is not a thing usually on MTGS. It's completely absent from my own process. Is it normally not the case elsewhere as well? This is a cultural difference.
"Town. Don't want to comment further right now, if they're scum they wouldn't have had a chance to talk to their teammates, which is why I tried to engage with them specifically. "
139- clearing a hurdle, for me.
The first line is entirely sufficient. The fact that tau uses this opportunity to prod and prompt more information to be revealed so he can solve the game is a good use of time, and is very active and proactive.
Good wolves can fake it.
148- Okay, at this point I really have to wonder if this is Tau's typical town game behavior, or if it's just showing off.
This is really high quality, which means that he's got to have really high quality as his scum game in order to not stick out, and to compete with himself. If he's anything like me, he wouldn't be happy having a totally crappy scum game compared to his town game.
"This seems too blatant to be malicious so let me give you some advice: don't post just to post, always try to find or lynch the mafia in every post. "Posting just to post" is scum/wolf/mafia behavior."
I don't think based on how the game has unfolded that Tau was trying to pocket King Torg here, and I don't think Tau would draw attention to a weak partner this way (maybe he would, but I wouldn't)
So...
I might be being a sucker, but I believe this is legitimate. The process so far is exemplary, but that means almost by definition you'd then know how to fake it as scum.
This here is more indicative to me. This is not taking advantage of a weak post, and it also doesn't look like pocketing, so it appears to be genuine, and the only reason it would be genuine is if Tau is town.
149- I can follow all of these thoughts and none seem out of place. I'm pretty sure I've said similar things about people relying too heavily on the new player card as the comment about Dota made here. This all looks solid.
151- feels a little cheap and opportunistic, but... the process still matches all his other posts. This could be a misread.
161- comment about Jenna is pretty good. A bit diplomatic but, towning on this level must necessarily involve some level of mediation. Also can be a mis-tell under these circumstances.
180- nothing noteworthy here
182- I've done that before. But at this point I'm raising the bar. I've got a lot of townies and Tau clearly has a deeply layered and carefully structured game.
185- questioning/solving
211- This can be alignment indicative.
" Your Voxx conclusions are totally off. Your premises aren't wrong, but despite claiming to strongly dislike scum he's historically been very good at it. A couple years back I recall him claiming to never had been lynched as scum without a mechanical guilty across dozens of scum games."
Straightforward, firm. Is reading everyone's posts and verifying their validity internally, and responding like this when it doesn't seem valid.
" Tubba has state they like waiting to vote as Town, which implies they do not agree with the normal evaluation Town should change their vote quite often, and having a vote down is always correct. However, he still participates in RVS, which is just this evaluation pushed to extreme due to extreme lack of info at the beginning of the game. This is inconsistent."
I note that scum like to read things as negatively as possible, and find inconsistencies which are a stretch, or ones which are not alignment indicative to paint as scum.
Despite having numerous opportunities to do so, that is not what Tau is doing. And while I don't know if I fully agree with the assessment here on Tubba's alignment, I believe that Tau believes this process works against Tubba.
212- I feel like I'd be town reading this post if the rest of Tau's game wasn't so tight.
213- Kind of how I'm approaching you at this point now, Tau. What would ordinarily be town tells are being pushed beyond your reach, and I'm only paying attention to the highly indicative stuff that is difficult to remember to fake consistently.
214- Critiques Colin's process as being a really bad way of town reading someone. That may be the case, but does he really believe it? That's more indicative than the process itself. Necroquoting, I don't agree, though I guess it would depend on context. I routinely dig through the old parts of a game. In fact, that's my gold mine. Maybe we're referring to different things here? I'd be helped by an example. It might ring a bell.
215- Is a really good post if KillJoy is scum. In fact, if KillJoy flips scum, Tau gets 90 percent of a town lock. Still, Tau is obviously good, so I can't lock him town now.
262- I just don't agree with your assessment on Dota, though I admit you seem to believe it.'
However, this sequence is indicative:
" A Bear mentioned he was scumread by everybody but got few votes #187 (although they later voted him in a place that would be a pretty hard bus unless Osie is also scum, albeit at the same time that they literally said they thought DotA's scumteam was abandoning him. #209)"
This sentence and thought is structured in a manner that is usually too complex for scums to remember to fake.
In terms of how often I've seen thoughts this complex from scum, the answer is... once.
1 in 300 games is good enough odds to lock Tau town despite his obvious skill level.
This is half of Tau's ISO, and a quick skim of the rest indicates the exact same level of quality.
If he's scum I will not be able to find it by reading him, he's literally too advanced a player to be scum read unless he makes an uncharacteristic mistake.
Thus, there's little point in continuing. Tau is in competition with Dota for the towniest player in the game.
I feel like I have too many villagers at this point.
I'm going to need to go over them again overnight, and it might all be wasted effort on my part, like last game.
Still, I'm really confident on several of those town reads. At this point a POE lynch makes sense even if it's not my first choice.
If the top 3 town reads are wrong then I have been properly and thoroughly entertained by someone who is a very good scumbag or who advanced their scum game very rapidly. I'm happy with that.
It's late now and I spent way too much time on this again. But I feel like I looked under every stone except Shadow, and I'm throwing dice to guess his slot.
King Torg/Meg:
Claiming scum has been mentioned. I'm fairly sure it's more >rand scum than not.
Also he's claiming new.
Question: do new players typically think to joke about being scum?
Answer: Probably not.
Saying "If I posted more content I'd say you were strawmanning my arguments" is weird coming from scum though. Not self conscious enough. Also "I'm going to do my best to make an okay post" if it refers to a "town" post. Could also mean "post with content" so its not definitive.
His progression is really weird on Osie in 195. "Started bad, getting steadily townier but since I have no scumreads he's scum".
Admits to fencesitting on Osie later when prompted by DotA.
Hm.Something Pizza said makes me think something here: After the Osie flip, he didn't reevaluate. His two other scumreads are still DotA and Jenna. Like he's taking the list (not his actual reads) and starting from there.
Now Meg's come in and....
doesn't even try.
Thats... werid for scum to do. He notes how irresponsible it would be for him to do that.
Question: Would scum do this?
Answer: It's possible, but unlikely. Could potentially be a hail mary play. Like, Torg was scummy, Meg replaced in knowing that he was under pressure. Its possible that hoping to be derpcleared as 'too scum to be scum'?
Question: Is it enough of a possibility that it outweighs the scumminess of Torg's play?
Answer: I can't say for sure it makees him likely enough town to discount him.
I'm willing to lynch Meg today. Probably. Maybe. GAH! He seems to be the likely lynch today, so I'm gonna have to hope I'm not overthinking this.
A Bear/Grapefruit:
I recall mindmelding with Bear about one of Dota/Osie being scum, as well as shadow leaning town for the early wagon.
Decent quesitons to Osie in 187.
Not sure what 'the machine' is or why it makes DotA scum or Osie town?
I agree with the worldbuilding in 209.
Seems... fencesitty on Osie/DotA. Has called both likely town at some point but thinks both are scum?
I like the analysis of his wagon in 307.
Now Grapefruit.
Hm. If torg is scum, Grape probably isn't. Grape left him out of his list. Leaving scum out of readslists is wierd for other scum.
Not sure what Grape is doing in his DotA post. Its hard for me to tell if he believes what he's saaying or not.
Caveat: his posts to Pizza say he probably does.
Grape/DotA not scum together.
I think I like his progression on Pizza? I'm starting to think the same.
I disagree with his Colin post. I think the disconnect between reads and descriptions do not make it a good catch up post. Feels like "A for Effort" as opposed to content. Same to Colin's Tubba ISO.
If grape is scum, Colin might be too?
Hmmm. I'm not sure. I'd rather be sure before lynching him. So, No for toDay.
I leave for work in less than an hour. I'm willing to lynch Colin, Meg, DotA. I'm thiking it'll be Meg given the gamestate.
I'll be back to hammer before I leave unless someone wants to talk more.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I'm at work and not completely caught up, I still want to lynch Dota but like lynching megs more than no lynching. Will hammer in a couple hours if people don't come over to Dota.
vote Colin
Colin, why did you immediately assuming a town roleblocker?
@Grapefruit: Why is Colin so strongly town?
How votal analysis works: (since a few posts by players this game has made it seem some players don’t know)
1) Scum tend not to vote one-right-after-the other on wagons. This is a manifestation of scum’s desire to be seen as “reasonable” more than wanting to actually find scum - they tend to want a Townie to “confirm” a wagon is reasonable before jumping on. Scum players do this instinctively without thinking about it. I think this tell is underused, because I recently analyzed a game for this tell and discovered scum voted together around 1/4th the rate you’d expect if player alignment didn’t matter for the probability of being wagon neighbors, and the scum specifically attempted to dodge this very tell.
2) Wagons on Townies tend to contain some scum. This has nothing to do with the “statistics” that any group of 5ish players is likely to contain a scum and everything to do with the fact that as a mislynch acquires more Townies it becomes a more and more desirable target of scum to vote on. Similar to rule of 3, this means wagons contain a scum/Town ratio with less variance than a completely random group of players.
3) Scum don’t like bussing. There are two specific places where scum are extremely unlikely to bus - when there is another wagon on a townie of similar size, or very early (First 3 votes).
All these are subject to being given more or less credence due to context. Votal analysis isn’t a magic formula and more a system of detecting scum behavior which is likely to fall through the cracks otherwise, and to determine how your reads interact before players involved have flipped.
Actual Analysis
Assumptions: Myself and Jenna are Town.
shadowlancerx - 5 (DoTArchon, Vaimes, Voxxicus, osieorb18, Jenna) (L-2)
Had to make this one myself, up to #56.
Scum is at least one in {DoTA / Voxx / shadow}, I don't think any combinations are ruled out. I recall shadow suggesting it could be all Town, but I don't buy that - TubbaFett, Colin and King Torg could have all jumped on as it was forming, and there was no reason the wagon had to stop when Jenna voted, other players could have hopped on later. I've lost more EV by undertrusting votal analysis than overtrusting it. Former two not getting on looks bad for shadow.
“Preview” edit: Given what Pizza has done since I started working on this, I’m convinced Pizza is not scum unless DoTA is also scum. This implies either DoTA or shadow is scum. and if DoTA is Town so is Pizza.
Voxx vote would be more distancing than turbo-bussing, which seems off Voxx's scum MO.
I don't think Jenna is a wolf outside this but I will mention that I think Jenna/shadow is never w/w.
Hmm given the Voxx vs. shadow thing here, probably at least one of Voxx and shadow are Town. I don't see them attacking each other but making up and being best buddies this Day phase. (Although Voxx hasn't exactly given shadow glowing praise).
So that conclusion is: Voxx or Shadow is Town
DoTA wagon should be analyzed on how it grows, so I'll look at it later.
Wow this makes me mad at the Osie lynch all over again.
So one of DoTArchon/Tubba Fett/Killjoy is scum, but that’s more because they’re all scummy than votal analysis. What’s more interesting is that one or two of them is probably Town.
I don’t think DoTArchon/Tubba is w/w there. Tubba Fett/Killjoy looks less solid given that TubbaFett is being wagonned, so it might override the natural scum instinct to spread out.
Restating: One of DoTArchon/Tubba is Town.
King Torg / A Bear’s votes on DoTArchon are notable, since we know they’re counterwagonning a mislynch. I strongly doubt either is scum with DoTArchon, or scum with each other.
So either grapefruit or DoTArchon is Town
either DoTArchon or King Torg is Town
either grapefruit or King Torg is TownSee Votal 1.11 analysisThis votal is very interesting.
Note that King Torg has just moved from DoTA, breaking the 3-3-3 pattern.
From between when it was 3-3-3 with Osie’s vote on Bear and Torg breaking it, the following players posted:
Shadow
Killjoy
TubbaFett
(myself for completeness)
That implies these players didn’t really care which of {DotArchon/Osie/A Bear} got lynched. If any of these are scum, it’s probable they couldn’t move the lynch away from a scumbuddy in that list.
Shadow, TubbaFett, and Killjoy don’t make sense with DoTArchon or A Bear
King Torg’s vote there looks like a move to save Bear-slot. I went up and strikethough’d my original conclusion that King Torg / A Bear aren’t w/w, that’s enough to null it.
Only thing interesting that happens through EoD is shadow moving onto Bear and back off, I think have a much stronger shadow/grapefruit anti-align tell during Day 2 so I’m going to analyze that instead.
Shadow’s vote here is the opposite of King Torg, and had a decent chance of saving Osie.
Shadow or A Bear is Town
----------------
Colin also gets a massive reward of scumpoints for not voting /the entire Day phase/, which is both anti-Town and makes him hard to analyze with this method.
Normally I’d analyze the Osie wagon here, but I analyzed the beginning and don’t have enough townreads to derive info from the tail.
----------------
Day 2:
This implies anti-alignment between Grapefruit and DoTArchon and Killjoy/Grapefruit.
There’s a few reasons I don’t think Killjoy/DoTArchon have quite as a strong anti-alignment here, but given they’re already anti-aligned from the Vote Count 1.11 logic I don’t care to argue.
So:
either DoTArchon or Grapefruit is Town (again)
either Killjoy or Grapefruit is Town (again)
#508
Given Pizza’s massive walls on grapefruit, I have a hard time believing both are scum
So: either Pizza or Grapefruit is Town
Aggressive Worldbuilding:
I've found rather than trying to somehow sort premises based on reliability it's best to use them all and see what shakes out. Even if you've accidentally eliminated the actual team, I've found generally there's some sort of repeating pattern which is in the actual team.
Assembling all the conclusions together as premises:
Shadow wagon:
DoTA or shadow is scum.
if DoTA is Town so is Pizza
Votal 1.5:
Pizza or Shadow is Town
Votal 1.7:
DoTArchon or Tubba is Town.
Votal 1.8:
grapefruit or DoTArchon is Town (Also votal 2.3)
DoTArchon or Megiddo is Town
Votal 1.11:
Shadow or DoTA is Town
Shadow or grapefruit is Town (Also 1.12)
TubbaFett or DoTA is Town
TubbaFett or grapefruit is Town
Killjoy or DoTA is Town
Killjoy or grapefruit is Town (Also Votal 2.3)
#508:
Pizza or grapefruit is Town
Pretty nice. Most interesting thing is shadow wagon implies DoTA or shadow is scum, and Votal 1.11 implies one of them is Town, so we can break the worlds down into the mutually exclusive scum!DoTA and scum!shadow worlds.
Scum candidates outside DoTA/shadow are: TubbaFett, pizza, grapefruit, Megiddo, Colin, Killjoy
scum!DoTA:
Eliminated by anti-alignments:
Tubba, grapefruit, Mediggo, Killjoy
So if DoTA is scum, it’s only with DoTA/Colin/Pizza.
Scum!shadow:
Eliminated by anti-alignments:
Pizza, grapefruit.
So that’s a lot more flex, it’s
Shadow and any two of {TubbaFett, Megiddo, Colin, Kiljoy}. Writing them out:
Shadow/Tubba/Megiddo
Shadow/Tubba/Colin
Shadow/Tubba/Killjoy (This one is slightly odd due to Votal 1.7)
Shadow/Megiddo/Colin
Shadow/Megiddo/Killjoy
Shadow/Colin/Killjoy
Conclusions:
I want to investigate Shadow, but since he's active I'm not willing to turbo-lynch him. I don't want to lynch DoTA or grapefruit this Day phase. Best lynches are in {TubbaFett, Megiddo, Colin, Kiljoy}.
Sorting those by my regular reads, I'd put them TubbaFett < Killjoy < Colin < Megiddo. Probably need to re-ISO Megiddo
Vote: TubbaFett
Probably going to ISO Trog again. Not planning to re-iterate on DoTA since I've changed my mind there unless somebody asks me to.
--------------
@Megiddo Have you read the game yet? If not, when are you planning to finish that? Do you have any conclusions that aren't based on a single post?
I put forward the scenario where if he is town it is most harmful to town. If he is town and blocked by a wolf then the wolves already have that information and he is not harming town by sharing it.
Jenna Tolaria has ceased pestering Megiddo.
An accusation based on alignments in... a previous game? Please, no. Tell me that is not A Thing That Can Happen.
(Garish to the narrative as well.)
Eye opening and confusing, Reaverb's analysis incites yearning for a Megiddo end. Tubba, Pizza, and Reaverb are my most trusted.
Beyond me. I miss the play, the battles of the snarky horse*****ometer. I feel like each opponent has been throughly defeated. There are no more opponents; all have conceded. Only decisions to be made.
Sigh.
not sure what conclusions you're expecting me to have yet, but keep posting. i'm reading everything since I came in.
I don't expect you to have any particular conclusions, but I expect you to have some opinion on who the mafia are.
also, this may just be semantics, but wouldn't "opinion on who the mafia are" be "conclusions?"
It strikes me as really weird that you're ignoring the early parts of the thread. To turn you argument on it's head, do you think mafia did something catchable before post #528?
so.
I mean what do you want out of me here. I'm not really getting a sense for why you're pushing this point on me.
Vote: Megiddo
(For the class: Megiddo's claim that the early game has information but he still isn't going to read it shows a ludicrous lack of Town mindset to solve the game, and #530 shows he is to some degree lying about not reading the thread anyway.)
There it is, thanks. You can lead with the vote next time, it's OK.
Couple things for you:
First: do you think I am being truthful about not reading the game up until the point of my replacement? For full disclosure, I did read my role PM. I also read the OP and the replace-in post (which had the vote count). But I didn't read any content posts from before my replace-in. I won't attempt to self meta, but I do think it would be disastrously irresponsible to my team if I were scum and pulling this particular stunt, considering the landmines one might step in with the approach.
I ask this because you just now said I'm "to some degree" lying about not reading the thread. As I explained above to Colin, my comment on Vaimes was about Meta. A [Voxx/Pizza] feels like a much stronger NK slot than Vaimes, from having played with all three of those players several times before. Seeing that NK choice got the wheels turning and informed my later post about lynching Pizza.
I'd like to know what degree you think I am lying about this, why you think it, and why this makes me scum.
Changing topics: Turning questions on head as you did, what is the *scum* mindset to not reading? You seem to think I'm not trying to solve; why is this? I did ask you specifically to point me to anything I "should really be reading," but instead of doing that you did... this.
Secondarily, you're using a false argument here, which is that I am scum for leaving solving options on the table (the early game posts that I haven't read). Why is this? You seem to be neglecting that I might be using other solving techniques. The early game posts will always be there for me to read, but you're posting here and now and I can engage you in the moment. I find this to be a valid solving technique. Do you? If so, why would *not* using a different solving technique make me scum?
Let me know if you think that paragraph is mischaracterizing what you're saying. Happy to hash that one out.
I'm here for another... eh, 15 minutes? gotta catch up in my other game before I sleep.
I think you lied to exact degree you just admitted: you read the OP and nothing else from before you replaced in. This is mostly tangential to my main point.
I really like this response to Tau. Tau blasts colin's argument on KJ and Colin doesn't flinch and explains the read in more detail, the confidence reads really well.
This Tubba iso is the post of colin's that gives me the most pause. It reads well on tone and effort. But it feels like it has an agenda. There isn't a single post of Tubba's that Colin gives a positive reaction too and I just don't believe that at all. So it becomes a wine matter of figuring out if Colin is the type to tunnel hard or to be that brazen as scum. Both feel unlikely, but a tunnel seems more plausible, especially given the quality of the rest of Colin's posts.
Additionally and this comes after the question was asked, but Colin has a good response to Meg's entrance.
And Pizza clearly was trying to lampshade the lie so he couldn't get called out on it. But that doesn't make it scummy or prevent it from being townie...
Its not like him to make a claim that potentially gives so much info to the scum. Also he was spewing a lot of wine D1, which made me look a little sideways, but I still trusted my reputation read on him.
The roleblock thing just felt too out there, so I'm wondering if I was too quick to dismiss him.
Now, since we're talking about the slot: Pizza has used a lot of words, and I'm not sure what they mean for his alignment. I was really impressed with his play in Low Fantasy, and he has the capacity to be wrong obv (Anak) but I'm not sure I like his position on me.
I'll be honest though, I haven't REALLY taken the time to get in there and dig into his brain and see whats lurking there.
My point is: You were townreading me forever, then with no indication whatsoever, it changed to a scumread, seemingly because you were voting King Torg and I voted you for it.No you did not mention my vote but it happened and seems to correspond to your scumread on me.
***** Deadline is tomorrow. I'm going to ISO shadow, King Torg, Tubba, Grapefruit and Colin to see what I can see there. I'm obviosuly for lynching DotA but no one else seems to want to.
Tubba:
I'm seeing some positive tonal reads. His 136 is one I'd point out specifically as sounding natural.
Hm. But at the same time, 198 feels slightly preconstructed. Specifically the "Did I just solve this *****" part seems awkwardly tacked on the end of it.
Question/Note: How likely is scum to state they want to lynch someone becuase they can't understand them? Seem odd for scum to be that blatent.
I'm gonna slot him as heavily leaning town. Positive tone, plus some other things like my note up there. Also, I found him pretty easily in Low Fantasy and I'm not sure he can improve his scumgame that quickly especially considering he's never been town.
Colin:
I still feel like there's kind of a large disconnect between where his descriptions (in 158) place his reads and the reads list itself... but he's explained that and I can't prove otherwise so... I'll just have to let that feeling go.
However, he does do this weird thing in his descriptions where his entire read seems to be scumreading a person and in the last sentence of it he kind of... changes it? Like, his read of Vaimes. The whole post is about not liking Vaimes, then ends it with "I'm trusting Bear/some other townreads that he's town." The other notable one is osie: "if he forgets the first half of the game, he's his top townread".
I just... don't see a reason to want to forget half of someone's posts when trying to read them.
Hindsight: Osie and Vaimes were both town, and he had kinda fencesitty townreads on them at the end.
I ask him about the disconnect, and his answers aren't BAD but they also aren't GREAT.
So. His 346 is all about Tubba. I just read Tubba. I... don't agree with it.
Question: Is it a hit post made my scum, or tunnelly town?
Notes: Some of these points are just... bad, like "If you have no experience with Bear, why the RVS?" Why is that a scum thing? He really seems to have it out for Tubba. I wish people knew him so I could ask if this is typical behaviour for him.
Answer: I'm leaning hit post. Everything is negative about him, but unlike me he didn't notice and take inventory. That's weird to me.
I'm also not getting anything tonal one way or the other.
I'd be willing to lynch Colin today.
Shadow:
Came into the game really solvy, which normally I like but recently read an article that scum are very likely to do that too. I'm willing to differ to my personal feelings since it's not specific as to what solvy means.
Not a huge fan of "confirming" votes. It's a nail-in-the-coffin drama tactic that town aren't super prone to in my experience.
His wagon popped up fast. One (i think) was RVS and the rest were legit. Note: only possible scum on wagon are Jenna/PizzaVoxx/DotA. If shadow is scum, could be all town. If shadow is town, very likely one of them is scum. Again, probably not two of them.
Further note: PizzaVoxx vote was RVS.
Also scumreading Jenna for being unreadable, but not as blatent as Tubba. Says its because he doesn't trust her instead of just saying 'I can't be bothered to figure it out'.
232: "I don't wanna lynch Vaimes or Voxx because they'll both die to NKs." I didn't notice this before. I'm not sure I like this statement.I mean, I guess they theoretically are the best analysts in the game but if scum!Voxx this is a good way to fake a townread on his buddy.
Sees three wagons at 3 votes near deadline and votes off the wagon. If it wasn't so close to deadline I'd give him townie points for it for going against the grain so much. As it stands, there's a motive available that he could be parking his vote off the wagons to make a mislynch more likely.
Caveat: He later votes Bear and Osie to avoid a mislynch, so its maybe not that?
Continues pushing Reaver start of D2. I don't recall a wagon on him. Ok.
I like his recent questions.
Hm. I think shadow gets a townlean and a 'not willing to lynch' from me. Bare minimum we have better targets.
**** I'm tired. I'll do Bearfruit and King Meg in the morning after SLEEP.
Can we please consolidate on one-two people? We have 3 votes on Megiddo and a bunch of one-offs.
For Day 3 I'm tempted to check out of the thread for the last 47 hours to avoid this nonsense.
Seeing my villagers vote irrationally and divided does not give me good feelings about how this game is going to end.
I can't be bothered to put more effort into this game under these circumstances.
Grapefruit should hang, Tubba is off on a tangent thanks to Voxx playing fancy, and I am not a big fan of Shadow voting for Colin.
I don't believe either Grapefruit or Killjoy are townies. So, you're forcing me to lynch three deep into my scum pile, which is fine, since Megiddo either isn't town or won't be worth anything to town anyway.
Vote: Megiddo.
Hasta la vista.
Megiddo - 3 (DoTArchon, Jenna Tolaria, Reaverb Tau)
Askthepizzaguy - 1 (Tubba Fett)
Colin - 1 (shadowlancerx)
DoTArchon - 1 (Grapefruit21)
Grapefruit21 - 1 (Askthepizzaguy)
Tubba Fett - 1 (Colin)
Not Voting - 2 (Megiddo, Killjoy)
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 2 ends at 11:59 PM Eastern on 31 October.
Vote Count 1.8, Vote Count 1.9, Vote Count 1.10, Vote Count 1.11, Vote Count 1.12, Vote Count 1.13, Vote Count 1.Final
Day 2: Vote Count 2.1, Vote Count 2.2, Vote Count 2.3, Vote Count 2.4
Unaddressed errors in this vote count? PM me on MTGS or Discord, I'll get it sorted.
I'm not even the one who lied, but I'll tell you this.
On other sites, in games with detectives, most games, vanilla townies claim to have peek results, so the actual cop can reveal them while not outing himself. This is called fakepeeking.
Another common tactic for vanilla townies is to claim a power or act like they have one to draw a murder. That's what Voxx did here. I am not a vanilla townie but the power I have is ~worthless. I have a bag of tricks, like being able to send a message to another player. Not helpful since I don't have an investigatory power.
Voxx was just trying to draw a kill. The main reason why I denied that move, was because after I die, it will be revealed that I have an active power, or at least one active power (the message, for example). But, because he claimed to be roleblocked, if I die town will believe that he was roleblocked on night one and that means that town will have been fed incorrect information from a then-confirmed townie.
That's almost as bad as leaving the wrong peeks when you're actually a cop. Voxx was not roleblocked on N1 and I immediately opened the game by clarifying his lie.
But I can give you more lies. I've claimed cop with a guilty peek on someone as a vanilla townie before, and gotten guilty people lynched, then I got killed and was revealed to be a vanilla townie. I've claimed correct innocent peeks on people and been killed, thinking I was the cop that way.
One time I was the cop and claimed to be bulletproof on day 1 in my opening post and asked "for the cop to scan me" and if they found me guilty to feel free to reveal me, and if not, keep silent. I went on to scan 3 guilty people that game, without doctor protection. Town won because I lied.
I happen to lie often as town. Mafia assume that townies tell the truth, but this is a game of lying. And lies can be effective.
I could have come in here today with a guilty peek on Grapefruit and said lynch him, he's guilty. I think he's that guilty where I'd hit scum a large amount of the time if I made such a claim, and got him lynched.
The problem with that is I've seen townies do that and hit a townie. And Grapefruit, well, he looks guilty enough as it stands. His iso and bear's iso are ridiculously, sickeningly scummy. Almost tom-last-game levels of scummy. If you don't lynch him this game I'm pretty sure that's GG to the town.
Instead, you folks have been focused on shiny distracting things. I feel like because I'm pushing there, some of you don't even want to look at grapefruit, you want to go hunt your own wolves. I applaud that, but, you know, don't let the guy who is openly wolfing go.
If town lynches Dota, Tubba, or Colin tomorrow, you will be doing so over my dead body, which will be spinning.
Megiddo probably flips wolf here, but that doesn't help you. If you lynch the scums in the wrong order, they get away, and have greater control over the narrative. King Torg had no village points and Megiddo entered the game scummily, he's an easy get if he's scum.
You keep overlooking Grapefruit and it will bite you in the ass come endgame.
If I ever try to persuade with just logic, then I'm scum.
Claim please, not a lot of time.
I'll be amazed if we don't lose villagers to inactivity. As every round requires a set number of people to vote, and people don't show up for days on end and can't be bothered to make sensible votes when they do, we could lynch 2 scums back to back here and still lose the game.
But, fair is fair. If I'm reading this game right, every wolf has been replaced.
That's gotta suck for them. Town loses this game because they want to lose the game, in my opinion.
I could have kept quiet about his lie easily, but if it came down to a mass claim come endgame, someone could claim town roleblocker, they could intentionally not kill that night, and force any lynch they want. Having a dead confirmed townie telling you they were roleblocked when they were not is potentially game losing mechanically.
This is me being fastidious. Any lie I make is not designed to ruin the game even if it goes badly. I've fake claimed masons with a fellow vanilla townie before, but we both came clean when we got CCed.
At that point, town decided all 4 of us were innocent and they were right. And town still lost because they lynched the guilty people in the wrong order and the scum that bussed won.
It matters which guilty person dies. I've won so many games killing my own partners in an unexpected order. Megiddo is being left out to dry here. Grapefruit was the one they can't afford to lose.
Everyone else who accused that slot will be dead soon. The remaining villagers don't have their heads on when it comes to that slot and won't lynch him.
He'll just start posting better and you'll let him go.
That's how town loses. They accuse all the right people but trip over themselves and then get distracted by the shiny and then everyone who would have lynched the right people is already dead.
Not saying I don't trust you guys to reassess, but, the game is listless and town is rudderless. That kills morale and you'll be much less apt to solve correctly once you misfire again. You'll start listening to whoever makes good posts and forget that most wolves get caught based on their early game behavior which is analyzable in retrospect.
Scums who have no buddies to lose can post well because now they're exactly like a townie. Lynch outside of yourself and make good cases.
That's different and much more easily faked behavior than the early game where they're trying to either preserve a team, coordinate mislynches, or use distancing tactics. All are visible.
Nothing's visible when one wolf is by himself. That's why you need to look backward.
That's the frustration I'm getting here. I'd cfd off of Megs if I thought I could get grape lynched and I think both are guilty.
He's the one whose card you need to see to believe it. He's the one who will get away.
But I'm staying put because people will not show up and we didn't get a larger extension. I can't even look at Tau tonight. So I didn't get to investigate the entire player roster. He could be deep, I don't even know, because I couldn't look.
Glgl.
This isn't just because it's unlikely that Tubba will get traction today, I believe there are people that have moved ahead of him to be lynched.
I feel there are wolves in the replacements too, but perhaps not all of the team.
I have concerns about Grapefruit. It's really selfish, but I'm most baffled by his read on me. It really feels like an "I know he's town" post. It's quite a hefty town-read to give someone who's not under any pressure and a lot of it feels like a pocket attempt, but why pocket me? I don't know, I'm really wavering on how I feel about this. Initially I thought it was town, especially for the evaluation of me on Tubba. Since then I've thought it's more scummy as there's no real need to post that in depth of a read on me as town. If I'm reading someone as town I don't tend to investigate and explain any further than necessary, I need to spend my time gathering evidence against my scum-reads. I think overall I'm reading it as a scum-post for providing little actual content, and definitely nothing necessary right now. It also provides a call-back for Grape to say "I told you so" if/when I flip. There's just this thing in my head screaming at me that these are the type of things that I can completely mis-read and maybe Grape's just town with a strong read. After all, the read is not incorrect.
I'm sorry for that being a bit of a messy ramble and a selfish based post, but I want to get this thought out there. I'm just still struggling with it and wanting it out there before end of day.
Taking a break from isoing Tau, I began to respond to this post but it's getting near my word limit and I'm just over-explaining things.
This is the tl;dr bulletpoint version-
Thank you for being willing to take a closer look at him again.
Just to be very clear, there is no subtext in my earlier posts, I have neither a peek nor a fakepeek on him. It was all hypothetical.
The time remaining in the round makes there be a lot of downsides to CFDing. Among those being a lack of enough heads up to get him to claim, if he had something exonerating or mechanically relevant to say. I don't believe it would be anything less than a scum fakeclaim when it happened, but on the chance I read him wrong, that's a risk. The time to push him was when I made the case and in the days since, here it's too few hours, even if I think it's the best lynch.
This lynch also helps you townread Dota if Megs flips scum. That was the next biggest concern.
Too many townies are being scum read by other townies, if my analysis of the game is close to accurate. Even if were to lynch a scum here, where does that leave the rest of you? I can be killed. A town that town reads each other takes too long to kill. That's more important. Now the opportunity presents itself to get other townies on board with Dota being town, which forces someone who was mislynch bait into the must kill pile. Every time we do that, it makes the game state harsher for the wolf team.
That is what I'd be giving up if I insisted on CFDing in the short time remaining. Although I think we'd be in better shape with Grapefruit dead, we are also really short on townies who can't be lynched in that universe, I think.
Nothing is harder than hitting the last wolf. If I've gotten you to be less complacent about Grapefruit, then that is acceptable.
If Grapefruit is to be made a suspect by many, and pushed seriously, I'd like for the full process to be used on him, so corrections can be made. The CFD is great if it was on a townie and moved to a scum, it's more likely to just be confusing if it's on a wolf and lands on another wolf. And if it's on a wolf now and lands on a villager, the game state is almost not able to be recovered.
I think if either grapefruit or megiddo claims something, it's fake, but I don't feel comfortable making that call while everyone else is absent. If we lynch we do it together, with the proper time for discussion.
Just, a lot of thoughts, explained in too much detail. Hopefully this much shorter post makes sense.
If I were to speculate, you specifically would be pocketed because they intend to kill more influential people in the game, so they can control the narrative.
You can be correct and still be less of a threat because you post less often, with larger amounts of time between your posts, and because you are under suspicion.
Pocketing you means that you might change your read on grapefruit, you might be mislynched later, or even if you had all correct reads, you're unlikely to be persuasive enough. Basically, pocketing you means exactly that the scums believe they can win with you alive, and that doesn't even mean your reads are wrong.
That's why folks like Voxx tend to go earlier. Voxx, rhand, people who are well known for reading people right or at the very least being influential, or difficult to lynch.
You have 19 posts and no established reputation. The metagame is what it is, and even if you're playing the game very well, which I happen to think you are, you are still less scary, and the scums feel they can handle you. You'll even doubt yourself if your reads are correct and then you don't die. The advantages of keeping you alive are many. So, they'd decide this early on to pocket you.
You also happen to look town to me so that can happen naturally.
The read that concerns me the most from Grapefruit isn't you, even though it looks like inside knowledge.
Grapefruit putting me as town here is also something that shouldn't be happening. He's seen my scum game firsthand on this site. His responses to me and the rest of his posts are all controlled, and any townie I'm accusing this hard should not feel in control. It feels a lot like how Lngrrr responded to my accusation in Low Fantasy. It's too controlled.
I made almost any mislynch I wanted happen in Final Fantasy and grapefruit saw it. I can also produce long ISOs out of thin air with minimal effort.
He should be less sure I'm town than he appears to be. It's just calculated to make him appear reasonable, in my view.
I wouldn't be this harsh in my assessment of him if Bear hadn't struggled so much when they were posting, and especially that part where they pushed their own townie read in many worlds and encouraged their lynch. It would still feel wrong to me, but Bear's posts are classic wolf that is having trouble being a wolf, masking it with words and post length.
If what they said took fewer words, people would be looking over those posts a bit more carefully, I think... they'd be seeing a nonexistent solving process or one that they obviously don't believe since they're doing the opposite of what their process says to do.
If I'm to believe someone is a townie I have to believe they believe what they're doing solves the game. Bear utterly failed to do that in the big post I highlighted in my last response to Grapefruit.
Back to Tau.
So he hasn't seen me scum before, as far as I know. Weakens my point, but... still. It's an awfully stoic response to kitchen sink mode.
I can tell by reading Tau's game that he's a highly advanced player, and as such, a lot of stuff I'd normally town read a player for, I set back to null.
Even so, one post near the end pushed all the way into blue territory under those conditions.
That plus the extreme quality of all the other posts, and multiple difficult-to-obtain teal posts, means Tau is either a townie, or I cannot catch this player from their posts alone, I'd need a guilty result to lynch them.
And when that becomes the case, that's a gg well played game. If I start lynching people like that I might as well roll dice to determine the lynch.
This puts Tau above Tubba on my list.
------------------------------------------------
6- rvs vote
7- I can't read into this for alignment, but the process here makes sense. He wants more from this one person so that he can read them. I don't see this post being significantly more likely to come from a townie than rand, however. Sounds reasonable enough to be faked.
63- Point 2a is deep and complex, and very specific. It's tough to remember to fake stuff like this. I even rather like point 2b.
"Vote: DoTArchon
They voted shadow in #9, had an immediate mind-meld with Shadow on my posts with #10 (Shadow) and #11 (DoTArchon), and then didn't comment on the near-identical questions or retract their vote on Shadow even though shadow has become the top wagon."
I can believe this process is real. Thing is, a vote placed that early is often not very serious, and people need to be posting once the wagon becomes huge to indicate that they're okay with that, and both of those things can be misleading if read into. So the process is sloppy, in my view, but I can believe it's real.
"I'd prefer you say why you think Vaimes is mafia now."
NAI, but I also like this for process reasons.
70- The "empirical evidence" comment is a bit flowery for language but I also depend on stuff that's actually written in the thread (or not written, in certain rare circumstances). It's gotta be evidence or a suspicious absence of evidence for me to take it seriously. So I like that process. But more to the point, "Do you believe hiding the 2-3 players who you think can read you is better for Town than revealing them? If so, why?" is also solid in response to Vaimes.
73- looks like solving reasoning and solving questions.
77- good follow up.
128- Attacks Tubba based on process, in a way.
"Basically: He has an RVS vote, notes something scummy on DotArchon, then votes what's basically another RVS vote instead of moving to DotArchon.
Particularly since "flailing" doesn't accurately describe Osie, they have several clear opinions once you read though there bizarre post restrictions.
This doesn't effect my read on DotArchon because it could be either setting up for a potential bus or trying to push a mislynch without getting on."
This is obviously an open book player who reveals process as they're doing it. Which is good. Sorry to say, I don't remember much about reaverb from GITP, it's been a long time. But they were also not as big on process there, and it feels like reaverb is more comfortable in a place where day 1 can include a serious attempt at solving.
133- solid process.
135- process is almost too good here. Again, I forget that day chat with wolves is not a thing usually on MTGS. It's completely absent from my own process. Is it normally not the case elsewhere as well? This is a cultural difference.
"Town. Don't want to comment further right now, if they're scum they wouldn't have had a chance to talk to their teammates, which is why I tried to engage with them specifically. "
139- clearing a hurdle, for me.
The first line is entirely sufficient. The fact that tau uses this opportunity to prod and prompt more information to be revealed so he can solve the game is a good use of time, and is very active and proactive.
Good wolves can fake it.
148- Okay, at this point I really have to wonder if this is Tau's typical town game behavior, or if it's just showing off.
This is really high quality, which means that he's got to have really high quality as his scum game in order to not stick out, and to compete with himself. If he's anything like me, he wouldn't be happy having a totally crappy scum game compared to his town game.
"This seems too blatant to be malicious so let me give you some advice: don't post just to post, always try to find or lynch the mafia in every post. "Posting just to post" is scum/wolf/mafia behavior."
I don't think based on how the game has unfolded that Tau was trying to pocket King Torg here, and I don't think Tau would draw attention to a weak partner this way (maybe he would, but I wouldn't)
So...
I might be being a sucker, but I believe this is legitimate. The process so far is exemplary, but that means almost by definition you'd then know how to fake it as scum.
This here is more indicative to me. This is not taking advantage of a weak post, and it also doesn't look like pocketing, so it appears to be genuine, and the only reason it would be genuine is if Tau is town.
...ctd
149- I can follow all of these thoughts and none seem out of place. I'm pretty sure I've said similar things about people relying too heavily on the new player card as the comment about Dota made here. This all looks solid.
151- feels a little cheap and opportunistic, but... the process still matches all his other posts. This could be a misread.
161- comment about Jenna is pretty good. A bit diplomatic but, towning on this level must necessarily involve some level of mediation. Also can be a mis-tell under these circumstances.
180- nothing noteworthy here
182- I've done that before. But at this point I'm raising the bar. I've got a lot of townies and Tau clearly has a deeply layered and carefully structured game.
185- questioning/solving
211- This can be alignment indicative.
" Your Voxx conclusions are totally off. Your premises aren't wrong, but despite claiming to strongly dislike scum he's historically been very good at it. A couple years back I recall him claiming to never had been lynched as scum without a mechanical guilty across dozens of scum games."
Straightforward, firm. Is reading everyone's posts and verifying their validity internally, and responding like this when it doesn't seem valid.
" Tubba has state they like waiting to vote as Town, which implies they do not agree with the normal evaluation Town should change their vote quite often, and having a vote down is always correct. However, he still participates in RVS, which is just this evaluation pushed to extreme due to extreme lack of info at the beginning of the game. This is inconsistent."
I note that scum like to read things as negatively as possible, and find inconsistencies which are a stretch, or ones which are not alignment indicative to paint as scum.
Despite having numerous opportunities to do so, that is not what Tau is doing. And while I don't know if I fully agree with the assessment here on Tubba's alignment, I believe that Tau believes this process works against Tubba.
212- I feel like I'd be town reading this post if the rest of Tau's game wasn't so tight.
213- Kind of how I'm approaching you at this point now, Tau. What would ordinarily be town tells are being pushed beyond your reach, and I'm only paying attention to the highly indicative stuff that is difficult to remember to fake consistently.
214- Critiques Colin's process as being a really bad way of town reading someone. That may be the case, but does he really believe it? That's more indicative than the process itself. Necroquoting, I don't agree, though I guess it would depend on context. I routinely dig through the old parts of a game. In fact, that's my gold mine. Maybe we're referring to different things here? I'd be helped by an example. It might ring a bell.
215- Is a really good post if KillJoy is scum. In fact, if KillJoy flips scum, Tau gets 90 percent of a town lock. Still, Tau is obviously good, so I can't lock him town now.
262- I just don't agree with your assessment on Dota, though I admit you seem to believe it.'
However, this sequence is indicative:
" A Bear mentioned he was scumread by everybody but got few votes #187 (although they later voted him in a place that would be a pretty hard bus unless Osie is also scum, albeit at the same time that they literally said they thought DotA's scumteam was abandoning him. #209)"
This sentence and thought is structured in a manner that is usually too complex for scums to remember to fake.
In terms of how often I've seen thoughts this complex from scum, the answer is... once.
1 in 300 games is good enough odds to lock Tau town despite his obvious skill level.
This is half of Tau's ISO, and a quick skim of the rest indicates the exact same level of quality.
If he's scum I will not be able to find it by reading him, he's literally too advanced a player to be scum read unless he makes an uncharacteristic mistake.
Thus, there's little point in continuing. Tau is in competition with Dota for the towniest player in the game.
I'm going to need to go over them again overnight, and it might all be wasted effort on my part, like last game.
Still, I'm really confident on several of those town reads. At this point a POE lynch makes sense even if it's not my first choice.
If the top 3 town reads are wrong then I have been properly and thoroughly entertained by someone who is a very good scumbag or who advanced their scum game very rapidly. I'm happy with that.
It's late now and I spent way too much time on this again. But I feel like I looked under every stone except Shadow, and I'm throwing dice to guess his slot.
King Torg/Meg:
Claiming scum has been mentioned. I'm fairly sure it's more >rand scum than not.
Also he's claiming new.
Question: do new players typically think to joke about being scum?
Answer: Probably not.
Saying "If I posted more content I'd say you were strawmanning my arguments" is weird coming from scum though. Not self conscious enough. Also "I'm going to do my best to make an okay post" if it refers to a "town" post. Could also mean "post with content" so its not definitive.
His progression is really weird on Osie in 195. "Started bad, getting steadily townier but since I have no scumreads he's scum".
Admits to fencesitting on Osie later when prompted by DotA.
Hm.Something Pizza said makes me think something here: After the Osie flip, he didn't reevaluate. His two other scumreads are still DotA and Jenna. Like he's taking the list (not his actual reads) and starting from there.
Now Meg's come in and....
doesn't even try.
Thats... werid for scum to do. He notes how irresponsible it would be for him to do that.
Question: Would scum do this?
Answer: It's possible, but unlikely. Could potentially be a hail mary play. Like, Torg was scummy, Meg replaced in knowing that he was under pressure. Its possible that hoping to be derpcleared as 'too scum to be scum'?
Question: Is it enough of a possibility that it outweighs the scumminess of Torg's play?
Answer: I can't say for sure it makees him likely enough town to discount him.
I'm willing to lynch Meg today. Probably. Maybe. GAH! He seems to be the likely lynch today, so I'm gonna have to hope I'm not overthinking this.
A Bear/Grapefruit:
I recall mindmelding with Bear about one of Dota/Osie being scum, as well as shadow leaning town for the early wagon.
Decent quesitons to Osie in 187.
Not sure what 'the machine' is or why it makes DotA scum or Osie town?
I agree with the worldbuilding in 209.
Seems... fencesitty on Osie/DotA. Has called both likely town at some point but thinks both are scum?
I like the analysis of his wagon in 307.
Now Grapefruit.
Hm. If torg is scum, Grape probably isn't. Grape left him out of his list. Leaving scum out of readslists is wierd for other scum.
Not sure what Grape is doing in his DotA post. Its hard for me to tell if he believes what he's saaying or not.
Caveat: his posts to Pizza say he probably does.
Grape/DotA not scum together.
I think I like his progression on Pizza? I'm starting to think the same.
I disagree with his Colin post. I think the disconnect between reads and descriptions do not make it a good catch up post. Feels like "A for Effort" as opposed to content. Same to Colin's Tubba ISO.
If grape is scum, Colin might be too?
Hmmm. I'm not sure. I'd rather be sure before lynching him. So, No for toDay.
I leave for work in less than an hour. I'm willing to lynch Colin, Meg, DotA. I'm thiking it'll be Meg given the gamestate.
I'll be back to hammer before I leave unless someone wants to talk more.
I'm Blade, town vig.
One shot only.
Let me know where I should direct my attention for our limited time until deadline. I'll start poking around on my own otherwise.