So, since Colin agreed, I'll use the next couple of days to create my questions list.
I still need an agreed upon date between you and Killjoy at the very least, and Jenna being a third person well that's trickier to manage. I'm mostly focused on you two.
If you can name dates / times / time zones that work. And keep in mind, it doesn't have to be a long window on that date, just an overlapping time frame of like 10 minutes so you can paste, prepare the post, and be ready to hit send at the top of the hour
And you can compose your answers before you post them. Just don't post them early.
Aim for this weekend or later maybe? What works for you guys. discuss amongst yourselves. Again, if we can't match up, then I'll post the questions in real time and expect an answer within an hour of that real time, in case scheduling can't happen. The answers will have to be off the cuff and not carefully researched, like a standardized test with a timer.
I promise not to post a video of the jeopardy think music. (Maybe)
Isn't no-lynch bad ev for town? We will lose a townie without even a chance to lynch scum? Break that reasoning down for me please?
There are villagers alive who the scums cannot lynch who might advocate for a scumbag to be lynched.
The advantage in not lynching at all as opposed to delaying it is to remove thinking brains from the game. If we're never going to lynch Tau, for example (And we should never lynch Tau, for example) removing him from the game is pro-wolf and doesn't give the town any advantage since we were never lynching Tau anyway. How about Colin? If he's got a doctor power, no lynching allows a roleblock on Colin and a kill on me, for example. Or how about roleblock me, and kill Colin. Docs can't usually self-protect. Since Colin's power could threaten to interfere in the wolves winning in a single lynch, force them to lynch twice to win, advocating for a no lynch is a hail mary pro-wolf strategy.
And the person advocating it is already under severe suspicion, so it doesn't even worsen their standing.
To propose a No Lynch is to propose an inherently scummy and pro-wolf action that masquerades as a pro-town action.
Sometimes people No Lynch at final 4 so the wolf will kill someone in the town. That's pro-town if you have no idea who the wolf is, and you're sure the wolf can't just kill two people at once.
We have no such guarantee. And we have people who are phenomenally villagery.
That's taking a generically pro-town action, which is not the same situation as this one, and making it a pro-scum action, in this specific situation.
Wolves loooooooove to argue for things that sound pro-town, generically, if it's to their advantage in this SPECIFIC situation.
You never No lynch when there can be town powers and townies you never lynch alive, and there are several rounds remaining in play.
It's not just bad, it's almost sabotage to suggest such an action as town. But I don't immediately leap to that conclusion. I have to offer the benefit of the doubt that the person in question is just a wolf, or is just a villager who hasn't analyzed the situation to my standards.
Honestly, I find it hard to ignore the fact that Grape's claim seems pretty bad considering King Meg's town vig flip. Is the game likely to have two town vigs?
99.9999 percent likely there was just one vigilante.
2 town vigs in a game this size who, by the way, never shot anyone in two nights? That's four missing kills.
The reason grape counterclaimed is because he was already scummy, and the wagon could have shifted back onto him after the massive case I made against him, and town could have let megs test his power.
The wolves were worried, because megs' reads list should have changed once grapefruit flipped scum. He might very well have started reading the game and shot a second wolf instead of a townie.
We need everyone to be chiming in with their thoughts on this. Pizza can't be the only one talking. If he's pure it's still not good because it gives us no insight on other people's thoughts.
Correct. I've also found 3 wolves and let 1 go in the past 3 games. Someone else needs to be double checking my work. Wolves find their way into my town because I'm always trying to build a town and give folks some benefit of the doubt.
Speaking of Pizza, if you haven't looked at my arguments for how Voxx/Pizza could be scum, please do and say what you think about it.
I'm against a no-lynch and mass claim but will compromise to get things moving.
I haven't looked into it because you seem like a villager, and because your question doesn't help me solve anyone. I know it's wrong, and unless your process as to why it's wrong makes me think you're scum, then it's not useful to me.
I'll also say it's not a useful question to ask me. If I'm scum I nail that answer with a long detailed explanation, because it's all hypotheicals, nothing is actually at stake for me to risk if I were to lie.
A solving question is one that puts me at risk lying, this one doesn't do that. If you absolutely insist, I'll answer it, I have no problems answering any question, but I'm telling you this one in particular is not helpful to me, you, or anyone else.
I encourage you to ask me other questions on TOP of that question, if you want to question me. Put me at risk of something. Although quite frankly, I want you to look at Bear's ISO. That was the one task I asked of everyone to do, because it's really helpful to the solve.
Everyone in my village is not doing enough digging into isos.
Even if you for some reason don't want to ISO bear, which... that's just a straight up blunder not to do so... you should be isoing other people and checking my own findings and double checking your own findings.
You have the time, and my village is not under lynch pressure. You have two weeks to just straight up no pressure solve the game.
If you are unsure, watch how Colin and Killjoy answer my challenge, and make your decisions about them afterward. Just stay on your toes and use the time.
I find several of your processes and reads good, and villagery, but I'm getting the sense that I really should be the thread captain today.
Even a village full of good townies can be off, or rudderless.
If you trust me, or not, primarily you should be analyzing every post made by Bear, and every post made by Grapefruit. Don't just iso them, look at them in context, read the game from page 1 to page 15 (whatever this last page is for you) and observe who they suspected, who they didn't when they voted and why.
If that gives you leads, and it should, inspect the next person. If the lead is on a townie, read them for other town tells. Also check and see if you think it wasn't just good wolf distancing. Are they a wolf anyway, despite how the interaction with bear should make them a townie? Were they just good?
Be thorough, make that determination.
If the lead is on a wolf, you might have a second wolf in the palm of your hands. Be thorough and ask yourself if they can still be a townie.
Why are they a townie? Why could they be a wolf? Look at it from two perspectives, because confirmation bias exists.
Once I got an inkling jenna was town, I rode that same assumption throughout most of the iso, but I still pointed out potentially problematic lies and I also pointed out their behavior which I thought made them town. But when torg flipped villager, it's null, and they don't have anything else going for them.
We all have biases. Eliminate them from your process as best you can.
Look into Killjoy and Jenna, they don't have a lot going for them and we don't have any more mislynches. If either of them are townies we're in deep trouble.
Look into your village, when you have time. Can any of them be a wolf? Why are they a villager? Is there stronger evidence in their favor?
I am all but certain Tubba, Tau, and Dota are villagers based on their posts and Bear's posts.
I lean village on Colin.
If that's wrong, why? I can't do all of this myself, even though I will attempt to do so if you leave me no choice.
It is my hope that if I'm wrong on my village, I can figure out who is the villager inside of the three main suspects I have outside of GF.
That's what my challenge questions will attempt to resolve. That's my process for solving the game, because Bear's ISO and your own posts have cleared everyone else to my satisfaction.
What is your process for solving the game? How are you being vigilant?
If you aren't sure, then lend me your ears and votes when the time comes. That's how you can help me if you're not confident in your own analysis.
I need my village not divided anymore. I want you to be thinking critically and solving independently, but let's be candid- we haven't been good at voting together and villagers got lynched, when a scum was on the chopping block both days.
Let's get together and lynch right three times in a row, with no mistakes.
I don't need to be a commander, I'm happy just being a solver. But I have led villages to victory, despite my crappy record of win percentage this year.
I recommend you follow me if you don't know.
If you don't need your hands held by me, I'm happy letting you run free without pizza telling you what to do. Please, by all means. I'm just not feeling it so far, and look around... you guys shouldn't be too inspired by what has transpired since day opened. Very unsure and directionless. Some good decisions being made like rejecting the no lynch, but what else is being done?
2 town vigs in a game this size who, by the way, never shot anyone in two nights? That's four missing kills.
3 missing kills. Megs died d2.
I also cannot count.
Tubba villagery for being unable to count. We're working from a blank slate. Wolves know how many kills were missing or if we're at mylo, not lylo. Townies have to figure it out and adding or subtracting can be hard.
I am free in 3-4 hours but I get the feeling that Pizza is ignoring me, once at I perform at the top, pages upon pages with nothing addressed to me, and then a second instance when the sign-ups close before I can even volunteer, I am discarded without worth. I'll play your game but let it be known that this is not a Thing I Do Lightly, it is an openly hostile confrontation where I must persevere a pious slog through horse*****. If such a matter is not resolved, I will relinquish the reins I have graciously volunteered without thanks or even acknowledgement for donning them.
I believe it occurs when no lynch and no kill are chosen two or three nights in a row. I'm not sure on specifics beyond that. But moreover I made myself available nearly this whole day and Pizza never showed up so the reins are off.
This is a wolf claim, so thank you for outing yourself. You offered a limited window of time while I was afk, so it wasn't a genuine offer.
And if you were reading my offer to interrogate you, I specifically stated I wasn't going to get your answers immediately.
So that plus your decision to push a pro-wolf No Lynch means you're permanently banished from my town and I'm going to lynch you.
My questions will be limited to Colin and Killjoy. You're in the rekt pile.
What can we possibly achieve in two weeks that we couldn't have done yesterday?
Sure, because townies know that having time to ask questions and solve is a waste of time, while they advocate for a no lynch at the same time.
Killjoy, I really really really need you to pull through for me if you're a townie.
We have to be wed like no one has ever been wed before if you're town, because I cannot come this close to a solve and have it get misplaced simply because Colin is decent at looking like a villager.
Do you feel me, KJ? It is you or him. We have to NAIL this *****. We have to be EPIC together.
I'm gonna start with you if we cannot agree on a date and time. So if by the time I have my questions for the two of you, you have not found a reasonable date with Colin you can both post your answers, you and I will make a date and keep it, and I'll need you to be very quick, yet thorough when answering my questions.
Then I'll move onto Colin and ask him similar but also plenty of different questions.
This is the Townie Final Exam. Please Ace it if you're a villager, because I can't see it buddy.
What's your comfortable typing speed, @colin, @killjoy?
I can't give you a test and not give you enough time to think and answer.
So depending on how long the list of questions is, and what your typing speed is, plus a buffer so you can think or find a specific post to cite, that'll be the length of the real time version of the exam.
Otherwise we'll get both tests in at once and it'll be more accurate that way.
But let's use up more of the deadline first. It's a 2-week window. We can talk before voting guys.
Also, no meteors as far as I know. The mod MIGHT implement a rule that says we can't no lynch at some point, but I've never seen a game go no lynch indefinitely.
I can't believe it, they went for the whole smash just then. All it takes is one vote.
2 no voters, killjoy waiting but said he doesn't hate it, so he can advocate for its merits while not giving away the entire game.
1 townie votes dumbly and we lose, while pizza is away.
All the townies decided not to be dumb. Thank god.
Thank you. I put so much effort into this and to have it all swindled away with one last ditch effort.
That's it, the game is solved. It wasn't Colin. It's Killjoy, Jenna, and Grapefruit.
Everyone else is a villager. They put all their eggs into this one basket, all three of them. They've got a shot they've been holstering for the critical moment.
We are one vote away from losing.
Time to lynch the wolves, 1, 2, 3. They just bet the farm they'd fool one of you. Now it's all completely visible what they are up to.
My hands are shaking. I'm infuriated, heart pounding, and scared that somehow you guys won't follow through, even though it should be impossible for you not to see what I'm seeing.
Oh my god I need to walk away. I need to not be here right now. Holy *****.
Grapefruit has made additional information-based claim that they've already shot. That's something you can check.
They say that they shot Jenna Tolaria, on night one. Indeed? Before they made a single post in the game they decided to shoot Jenna.
Okay, walk through that.
If Grapefruit is a townie, and Shot Jenna, suspicion on Jenna should exist on day 2. Because they were Grapefruit's top suspect, suspect enough to kill
Isoing grapefruit now, looking for any indicator of that.
Alright I'm back! Been away too long and I've already been written off which isn't great. Anyway first order of business is that even though I have a 95% confidence level we should not be lynching today. Pizza's over the top confidence means he wants to push through the game win and not take advantage of the extra flip we have to narrow the PoE down.
Vote: No lynch
Next I am a one shot vig. I targeted Jenna N1 and my ability failed. I hadn't fully read the game but I'd read enough to tell that Jenna was an opaque wall of cryptic-ness and needed to be sorted out. Anyway my shot failed, and I didn't realize I'd lost it until I tried to shoot Dota last night...
I need to think about Colin's claim because I'm not sure what it means for my PoE. Could be as simple as it just meaning colin is the last scum with Pizza and Dota, but I thought Colin was the towniest townie so I need to think through every angle.
Go check and see if this matches Grapefruit's day 2.
This is a good post and the big bolded question still needs to be answered. Why is Jenna town? I see nothing suggesting she is. I get that there isn't a ton to suggest she isn't either though. But as was pointed out eloquently mafia is a team game and it's hard to win if people are obfuscating their opinions. I tend to assume malevolence when that happens. Though toDay has been a bit better. I actually like 366 even if it's still hard to decipher.
(snip)
If Dota were to flip scum I'd want to look closely at Voxx given he was a huge part of the CFD onto Osie over Dota. That said I don't think scum often makes this sort of argument when white knighting. This is a scum+ post for Voxx if Dota flips scum and a town+ post in a vacuum.
Anyway reads:
Town
Colin
Tubba
Voxx
Shadow/Tau/KJ
Jenna
Dota
Scum
Biggest problems I have is I have no opinion on Tau or KJ and need to resolve that and my top two scum reads are close to mutually exclusive.
Vote: DotaArchon
So, Jenna is scummy enough to shoot on night 1.
But the next day, through no actual argument why, Jenna is less scummy. "Today has been a bit better".
I'm coming around to the idea that Jenna is town. Liking her recent posts a lot more. Will try to digest Tau's wall on KJ. I'm still in glazing over it stage.
Pffffffffffffff hahahahaha.
One shot vig shoots someone n1 without reading the game, and the next day, for no actual process or actual reasoning given, is a townie.
In spite of the fact that you might have just hit a mafia bulletproof vest.
No questions even posed to your literal top suspect that you suspected enough to "kill" n1.
Give me a break. Good grief.
There's just so much wolf blood all over this thread right now. It's a massacre. A truly depraved slaughter of an entire wolf pack on display.
The howling is a chorus of pain and agony. Lettuce put these folks out of their misery. It's what Jenna specifically requested today, by the way, so you can believe that's what they really want you to do to them if you're guessing right.
No one wants to sit through the next 6 weeks of being accused and outed. Just mercy kill these guys. They deserve a swift death.
Don't you dare lynch my village. Don't you dare tinfoil. It's all visible in the thread, if it takes you a bit to get it, I completely and fully understand, but no wolf team has been more outed than this one.
@Pizza: I'm fully on board with a Grapefruit lynch, but we have a lot of time left in this day phase to use before we need to lynch him.
Let's talk power roles. I think we're at a stage where town needs to coordinate to maximise the effectiveness of our roles. My personal thoughts as follows:
If we have an investigative role (Full cop/role cop etc.) choose between Tubba/Jenna/Killjoy/Myself. Either you can confirm town or catch scum. Win/Win.
A protective role (Doctor/Jailkeeper/Commuter) choose between Pizza/Tau/Colin. Least likely to be easily mislynch, therefore most likely to be targeted with the NK.
I don't think claims should happen until tomorrow, if Grape flips scum we'll have either 5/2 or 4/2 which gives us breathing room to push at counter-claims/fake claims.
1am here, but will still be around for a few minutes.
I have no keyboard at the moment, so will fully post tomorrow. OSK is frustratingly slow.
Grape is lying because Bear repaced after EoD though IIRC. Never mind the other nonsense. It is impossible for a D1 shot to be Grape's choice . Simple as.
aAny town thinking about a NL right now must be pretty new to mafia.
My thoughts on NL are this: It's mislynch or Lose. If we don't lynch anyone, no actual harm done. We can talk for 2 weeks then, if we don't have a lynch candidate we can no lynch and not be much worse off.
Lynching a townie loses us the game. No lynching doesn't. It's the safe play. It depends on our confidence in the lynch.
I think Colin should claim today so we can get everything out in the open and make an informed decision.
Also I don't like that DotA is attempting to direct the PRs like he has towncred.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
We eliminate a suspect with a no lynch. I may be mechanically deficient but I at least know that for a fact.
Not necessarily. Sure if the NK is prevented then whoever prevented it can claim so and we have two town practically confirmed BUT, if I were scum I'd just choose to not NK and then claim that I protected the NK. It leaves too much to chance. Why are you against lynching Grapefruit? What are your thoughts on the possibility of a 12 player game having 2 vigs?
If the mafia don't kill then the meteor forces them to act. That is how I've recalled it. Maybe that isn't the case and we could play in perpetuity?
Is there something wrong with a setup with two vigilantes?
I replaced in overnight and had a chance to catch up overnight and submit actions. Bear had submitted a tentative action to not shoot, I overruled it because Jenna was an opaque wall. It seemed clear that she was going to be generally unhelpful and impossible to read traditionally. So I pulled the trigger. D2 my read changed and she seemed much townier. Hence the quote pizza kindly highlighted and color coded.
I am free in 3-4 hours but I get the feeling that Pizza is ignoring me, once at I perform at the top, pages upon pages with nothing addressed to me, and then a second instance when the sign-ups close before I can even volunteer, I am discarded without worth. I'll play your game but let it be known that this is not a Thing I Do Lightly, it is an openly hostile confrontation where I must persevere a pious slog through horse*****. If such a matter is not resolved, I will relinquish the reins I have graciously volunteered without thanks or even acknowledgement for donning them.
I believe it occurs when no lynch and no kill are chosen two or three nights in a row. I'm not sure on specifics beyond that. But moreover I made myself available nearly this whole day and Pizza never showed up so the reins are off.
This is a wolf claim, so thank you for outing yourself. You offered a limited window of time while I was afk, so it wasn't a genuine offer.
And if you were reading my offer to interrogate you, I specifically stated I wasn't going to get your answers immediately.
So that plus your decision to push a pro-wolf No Lynch means you're permanently banished from my town and I'm going to lynch you.
My questions will be limited to Colin and Killjoy. You're in the rekt pile.
What can we possibly achieve in two weeks that we couldn't have done yesterday?
Sure, because townies know that having time to ask questions and solve is a waste of time, while they advocate for a no lynch at the same time.
Howl louder.
I think I'm done interacting with you if this is the way you're going to act. You say to tell you when you'll be available and I go out of my way on a nice Sunday to make myself available for you, and then don't event have the courtesy to say that you're going to disappear for a full day, and then to top it off you say you don't even want me in your little experiment. Frankly you can type the same things and feel so bad about how you've gone over your word limit. You're not impressing anyone and as the person who has made the greatest effort to interact with you and maybe convince you that you're wrong about me, I am done putting up with your apparent hate of me. I hope you have fun losing.
@Pizza: I'm fully on board with a Grapefruit lynch, but we have a lot of time left in this day phase to use before we need to lynch him.
Let's talk power roles. I think we're at a stage where town needs to coordinate to maximise the effectiveness of our roles. My personal thoughts as follows:
If we have an investigative role (Full cop/role cop etc.) choose between Tubba/Jenna/Killjoy/Myself. Either you can confirm town or catch scum. Win/Win.
A protective role (Doctor/Jailkeeper/Commuter) choose between Pizza/Tau/Colin. Least likely to be easily mislynch, therefore most likely to be targeted with the NK.
I don't think claims should happen until tomorrow, if Grape flips scum we'll have either 5/2 or 4/2 which gives us breathing room to push at counter-claims/fake claims.
1am here, but will still be around for a few minutes.
My vote is my permission given to end the round, as per my original request at the start of round.
I was going to go through a whole rigamarole involving solving Colin/KJ, but Colin should be solved by being murdered.
I don't have to resolve Killjoy/Colin today. And there's no way in hell I'd ever, ever, ever believe Killjoy-the-townie believes that the counterclaim to Megiddo is a villager and a viable path forward in a game where Grapefruit could be the scum one shot vig is to Not Lynch.
It either loses the game outright, which it very very likely does, since it's easy to doc-dodge. Just hit the doc. Or it allows the scums to kill village brains.
Given that, and how each has behaved toward the other, I'm just done talking to any of them for the rest of the game. I have nothing more to say.
Let's put it like this:
I've never been this confident they all just outed themselves. I've never seen a wolf catastrophe this big and I just saw 3 wolves collapse by the start of day 3 in the org game. This is bigger.
If I were to continue speaking to them like there was even a chance in hell they'd ever change my mind, I'd be slow rolling them as town. That's just plain rude and unsportsmanlike.
They had a chance to look villagery today, Jenna failed dramatically and drastically with flying colors. Grapefruit somehow managed to give EVEN more evidence that he was guilty, and I don't even know how that was possible. And Killjoy ain't Killjoy. That's never Killjoy. There's a guy with good instincts on the other side of that avatar, who knows how to be villagery and has a process that makes sense. That ain't him.
I'm locked in. They all go. You guys get there at your own pace. Decide how you want to play it out, but town doesn't win via night chess.
Town wins via checkmate. It's mate in three moves, and if we don't do the exact mate in three, it's a blunder and we get checkmated instead. Since we're out of mislynches, anything that isn't a check leading to checkmate is hanging mate in one.
That's what the No Lynch gambit was all about. It was an invitation for town to hang mate in one move.
I also am now at the point where time is actually working against us. If there's nothing left to solve, then extra time just gives us extra time to overthink it and tinfoil. This is the one instance in a hundred where town having lots of time is bad.
The only remaining danger left that I see is the town circle gets broken. That can happen. Like, even now I'm not obvious enough a townie for someone to not buy a well crafted argument that I'm scum. Colin, you can't lock town except by putting more confidence there than you should have. He's only being locked because I found the wolves, which makes him not a wolf. And because Bear interactions favor it being a pocket. Also GF's behavior toward him is a pocket.
Bear/GF both distanced from Jenna and both tried to pocket Colin. Once Jenna was under less and less pressure, and those suspecting that slot died off or chased shiny things, GF began to town read Jenna.
That's just distancing. Colin is the obvious choice for pocket, someone who isn't as engaged or present in the game, no established meta, and can be persuaded, pocketed, misled, or painted as scummy come endgame, as he was no one's lock townie.
Look, when I see my own fingerprints on scummy behavior, I immediately recognize it. That's a classic wolf move. Pocketing is effective, and of all the peeps in the game to pocket, you pocket the guy who has no meta on anyone left here, who has no known meta, who doesn't post much, so you can manipulate them and/or lynch them at the critical point.
Simple simple.
Investigative role should be on Killjoy only. Jenna is outed, GF is hard outed.
Doctor should self-protect if possible (its almost never the case) and should not protect me tonight, choose another but don't discuss who publicly. Picking me for the protect is tricksy and you should only do it if it's the person being killed. Otherwise, Tau, Dota, Tubba even, are all viable choices.
One big thing sticks out:
You're making a grievous mistake. We don't have space to move. It only appears that way. If the scums can kill twice successfully that is good game. At 4 townies and 2 scums, two kills wins. We cannot get complacent and we cannot ever no lynch.
You're making a grievous mistake. We don't have space to move. It only appears that way. If the scums can kill twice successfully that is good game. At 4 townies and 2 scums, two kills wins. We cannot get complacent and we cannot ever no lynch.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Did you read my posts on the matter? A no-lynch today doesn't gain us much, since either the NK doesn't happen for whatever reason and we're in the same position tomorrow, or the NK goes through and we're in LyLo. There's no way scum kill any of Pizza's 3 suspects or Pizza since if he's wrong about any of them they'll just let him push the lynch tomorrow and win from there. Getting the right lynch today puts us in a much stronger position tomorrow to evaluate everything and nail the remaining scum.
The counter argument in favour of a no-lynch would be that it gives us an extra night of information, but it's moot since we're gambling then on a strong power role surviving the night(or not being blocked) to give whatever info they received to us tomorrow.
Unless someone can make a very strong case for Grapefruit being town there is no reason not to lynch him today.
For those who are uncertain if it is mechanically possible to have two Vigs consider the following:
Day 1 begins with twelve players alive. Assuming a terrible(but not unrealistic)start to the game, town mislynches, scum get the NK through and both Vigs hit townies. This means the next day starts with only 8 alive, which is MyLo. On day 2. The odds of two Vigs in a game this size are astronomically small.
We eliminate a suspect with a no lynch. I may be mechanically deficient but I at least know that for a fact.
Not necessarily. Sure if the NK is prevented then whoever prevented it can claim so and we have two town practically confirmed BUT, if I were scum I'd just choose to not NK and then claim that I protected the NK. It leaves too much to chance. Why are you against lynching Grapefruit? What are your thoughts on the possibility of a 12 player game having 2 vigs?
If the mafia don't kill then the meteor forces them to act. That is how I've recalled it. Maybe that isn't the case and we could play in perpetuity?
Is there something wrong with a setup with two vigilantes?
Read my post above and tell me if you think it's a plausible scenario. And please answer my question about Grape.
I still need an agreed upon date between you and Killjoy at the very least, and Jenna being a third person well that's trickier to manage. I'm mostly focused on you two.
If you can name dates / times / time zones that work. And keep in mind, it doesn't have to be a long window on that date, just an overlapping time frame of like 10 minutes so you can paste, prepare the post, and be ready to hit send at the top of the hour
And you can compose your answers before you post them. Just don't post them early.
Aim for this weekend or later maybe? What works for you guys. discuss amongst yourselves. Again, if we can't match up, then I'll post the questions in real time and expect an answer within an hour of that real time, in case scheduling can't happen. The answers will have to be off the cuff and not carefully researched, like a standardized test with a timer.
I promise not to post a video of the jeopardy think music. (Maybe)
There are villagers alive who the scums cannot lynch who might advocate for a scumbag to be lynched.
The advantage in not lynching at all as opposed to delaying it is to remove thinking brains from the game. If we're never going to lynch Tau, for example (And we should never lynch Tau, for example) removing him from the game is pro-wolf and doesn't give the town any advantage since we were never lynching Tau anyway. How about Colin? If he's got a doctor power, no lynching allows a roleblock on Colin and a kill on me, for example. Or how about roleblock me, and kill Colin. Docs can't usually self-protect. Since Colin's power could threaten to interfere in the wolves winning in a single lynch, force them to lynch twice to win, advocating for a no lynch is a hail mary pro-wolf strategy.
And the person advocating it is already under severe suspicion, so it doesn't even worsen their standing.
To propose a No Lynch is to propose an inherently scummy and pro-wolf action that masquerades as a pro-town action.
Sometimes people No Lynch at final 4 so the wolf will kill someone in the town. That's pro-town if you have no idea who the wolf is, and you're sure the wolf can't just kill two people at once.
We have no such guarantee. And we have people who are phenomenally villagery.
That's taking a generically pro-town action, which is not the same situation as this one, and making it a pro-scum action, in this specific situation.
Wolves loooooooove to argue for things that sound pro-town, generically, if it's to their advantage in this SPECIFIC situation.
You never No lynch when there can be town powers and townies you never lynch alive, and there are several rounds remaining in play.
It's not just bad, it's almost sabotage to suggest such an action as town. But I don't immediately leap to that conclusion. I have to offer the benefit of the doubt that the person in question is just a wolf, or is just a villager who hasn't analyzed the situation to my standards.
99.9999 percent likely there was just one vigilante.
2 town vigs in a game this size who, by the way, never shot anyone in two nights? That's four missing kills.
The reason grape counterclaimed is because he was already scummy, and the wagon could have shifted back onto him after the massive case I made against him, and town could have let megs test his power.
The wolves were worried, because megs' reads list should have changed once grapefruit flipped scum. He might very well have started reading the game and shot a second wolf instead of a townie.
Correct. I've also found 3 wolves and let 1 go in the past 3 games. Someone else needs to be double checking my work. Wolves find their way into my town because I'm always trying to build a town and give folks some benefit of the doubt.
I haven't looked into it because you seem like a villager, and because your question doesn't help me solve anyone. I know it's wrong, and unless your process as to why it's wrong makes me think you're scum, then it's not useful to me.
I'll also say it's not a useful question to ask me. If I'm scum I nail that answer with a long detailed explanation, because it's all hypotheicals, nothing is actually at stake for me to risk if I were to lie.
A solving question is one that puts me at risk lying, this one doesn't do that. If you absolutely insist, I'll answer it, I have no problems answering any question, but I'm telling you this one in particular is not helpful to me, you, or anyone else.
I encourage you to ask me other questions on TOP of that question, if you want to question me. Put me at risk of something. Although quite frankly, I want you to look at Bear's ISO. That was the one task I asked of everyone to do, because it's really helpful to the solve.
Even if you for some reason don't want to ISO bear, which... that's just a straight up blunder not to do so... you should be isoing other people and checking my own findings and double checking your own findings.
You have the time, and my village is not under lynch pressure. You have two weeks to just straight up no pressure solve the game.
If you are unsure, watch how Colin and Killjoy answer my challenge, and make your decisions about them afterward. Just stay on your toes and use the time.
Even a village full of good townies can be off, or rudderless.
If you trust me, or not, primarily you should be analyzing every post made by Bear, and every post made by Grapefruit. Don't just iso them, look at them in context, read the game from page 1 to page 15 (whatever this last page is for you) and observe who they suspected, who they didn't when they voted and why.
If that gives you leads, and it should, inspect the next person. If the lead is on a townie, read them for other town tells. Also check and see if you think it wasn't just good wolf distancing. Are they a wolf anyway, despite how the interaction with bear should make them a townie? Were they just good?
Be thorough, make that determination.
If the lead is on a wolf, you might have a second wolf in the palm of your hands. Be thorough and ask yourself if they can still be a townie.
Why are they a townie? Why could they be a wolf? Look at it from two perspectives, because confirmation bias exists.
Once I got an inkling jenna was town, I rode that same assumption throughout most of the iso, but I still pointed out potentially problematic lies and I also pointed out their behavior which I thought made them town. But when torg flipped villager, it's null, and they don't have anything else going for them.
We all have biases. Eliminate them from your process as best you can.
Look into Killjoy and Jenna, they don't have a lot going for them and we don't have any more mislynches. If either of them are townies we're in deep trouble.
Look into your village, when you have time. Can any of them be a wolf? Why are they a villager? Is there stronger evidence in their favor?
I am all but certain Tubba, Tau, and Dota are villagers based on their posts and Bear's posts.
I lean village on Colin.
If that's wrong, why? I can't do all of this myself, even though I will attempt to do so if you leave me no choice.
Help me.
That's what my challenge questions will attempt to resolve. That's my process for solving the game, because Bear's ISO and your own posts have cleared everyone else to my satisfaction.
What is your process for solving the game? How are you being vigilant?
If you aren't sure, then lend me your ears and votes when the time comes. That's how you can help me if you're not confident in your own analysis.
I need my village not divided anymore. I want you to be thinking critically and solving independently, but let's be candid- we haven't been good at voting together and villagers got lynched, when a scum was on the chopping block both days.
Let's get together and lynch right three times in a row, with no mistakes.
If so, please take charge of the game state.
If not, I'm issuing suggestions on what to do next. Let's do this together as a team.
I recommend you follow me if you don't know.
If you don't need your hands held by me, I'm happy letting you run free without pizza telling you what to do. Please, by all means. I'm just not feeling it so far, and look around... you guys shouldn't be too inspired by what has transpired since day opened. Very unsure and directionless. Some good decisions being made like rejecting the no lynch, but what else is being done?
Progress toward a win must happen next.
3 missing kills. Megs died d2.
I also cannot count.
Tubba villagery for being unable to count. We're working from a blank slate. Wolves know how many kills were missing or if we're at mylo, not lylo. Townies have to figure it out and adding or subtracting can be hard.
This is a wolf claim, so thank you for outing yourself. You offered a limited window of time while I was afk, so it wasn't a genuine offer.
And if you were reading my offer to interrogate you, I specifically stated I wasn't going to get your answers immediately.
So that plus your decision to push a pro-wolf No Lynch means you're permanently banished from my town and I'm going to lynch you.
My questions will be limited to Colin and Killjoy. You're in the rekt pile.
Sure, because townies know that having time to ask questions and solve is a waste of time, while they advocate for a no lynch at the same time.
Howl louder.
Killjoy, I really really really need you to pull through for me if you're a townie.
We have to be wed like no one has ever been wed before if you're town, because I cannot come this close to a solve and have it get misplaced simply because Colin is decent at looking like a villager.
Do you feel me, KJ? It is you or him. We have to NAIL this *****. We have to be EPIC together.
I'm gonna start with you if we cannot agree on a date and time. So if by the time I have my questions for the two of you, you have not found a reasonable date with Colin you can both post your answers, you and I will make a date and keep it, and I'll need you to be very quick, yet thorough when answering my questions.
Then I'll move onto Colin and ask him similar but also plenty of different questions.
This is the Townie Final Exam. Please Ace it if you're a villager, because I can't see it buddy.
If anyone does this it's town sabotage or wolfing, and we deserve to lose.
I can't give you a test and not give you enough time to think and answer.
So depending on how long the list of questions is, and what your typing speed is, plus a buffer so you can think or find a specific post to cite, that'll be the length of the real time version of the exam.
Otherwise we'll get both tests in at once and it'll be more accurate that way.
...
There are not two town vigs and one kill per night. That never happened.
You cannot be maintaining a theory where GF is innocent at this stage of the game.
This is also nonsense.
This is just howling.
If even one silly villager voted with them, they hammer it, likely have 2 shots, and win the game outright.
I'm ready to lynch all three of these guys now. Get rekt all three of you. I'm done. Done. Done. Done. Done. Done.
I'M DONE TALKING TO ALL OF YOU.
GET THEM!!!
2 no voters, killjoy waiting but said he doesn't hate it, so he can advocate for its merits while not giving away the entire game.
1 townie votes dumbly and we lose, while pizza is away.
All the townies decided not to be dumb. Thank god.
Thank you. I put so much effort into this and to have it all swindled away with one last ditch effort.
That's it, the game is solved. It wasn't Colin. It's Killjoy, Jenna, and Grapefruit.
Everyone else is a villager. They put all their eggs into this one basket, all three of them. They've got a shot they've been holstering for the critical moment.
We are one vote away from losing.
Time to lynch the wolves, 1, 2, 3. They just bet the farm they'd fool one of you. Now it's all completely visible what they are up to.
I AM SO THICK.
Did you see how long it took to sink in? Jebus Farthing Christmas.
Time to vote for Grapefruit
Vote: Grapefruit
Die all you wolves, die in a fire!
Oh my god I need to walk away. I need to not be here right now. Holy *****.
Still, hoooooooly crap monkeys. There's no way any of them can be villagers.
Okay, I'm back.
Grapefruit has made additional information-based claim that they've already shot. That's something you can check.
They say that they shot Jenna Tolaria, on night one. Indeed? Before they made a single post in the game they decided to shoot Jenna.
Okay, walk through that.
If Grapefruit is a townie, and Shot Jenna, suspicion on Jenna should exist on day 2. Because they were Grapefruit's top suspect, suspect enough to kill
Isoing grapefruit now, looking for any indicator of that.
Go check and see if this matches Grapefruit's day 2.
So they
So, Jenna is scummy enough to shoot on night 1.
But the next day, through no actual argument why, Jenna is less scummy. "Today has been a bit better".
Then pushes Dota and votes Dota.
Verdict: Yep, distancing.
Pffffffffffffff hahahahaha.
One shot vig shoots someone n1 without reading the game, and the next day, for no actual process or actual reasoning given, is a townie.
In spite of the fact that you might have just hit a mafia bulletproof vest.
No questions even posed to your literal top suspect that you suspected enough to "kill" n1.
Give me a break. Good grief.
There's just so much wolf blood all over this thread right now. It's a massacre. A truly depraved slaughter of an entire wolf pack on display.
The howling is a chorus of pain and agony. Lettuce put these folks out of their misery. It's what Jenna specifically requested today, by the way, so you can believe that's what they really want you to do to them if you're guessing right.
No one wants to sit through the next 6 weeks of being accused and outed. Just mercy kill these guys. They deserve a swift death.
Don't you dare lynch my village. Don't you dare tinfoil. It's all visible in the thread, if it takes you a bit to get it, I completely and fully understand, but no wolf team has been more outed than this one.
We need to dive-bomb this scum wedding in progress.
We need to do the townie kiss of true love, before the sun sets on this village for good.
"Genital area".
Solid.
Let's talk power roles. I think we're at a stage where town needs to coordinate to maximise the effectiveness of our roles. My personal thoughts as follows:
If we have an investigative role (Full cop/role cop etc.) choose between Tubba/Jenna/Killjoy/Myself. Either you can confirm town or catch scum. Win/Win.
A protective role (Doctor/Jailkeeper/Commuter) choose between Pizza/Tau/Colin. Least likely to be easily mislynch, therefore most likely to be targeted with the NK.
I don't think claims should happen until tomorrow, if Grape flips scum we'll have either 5/2 or 4/2 which gives us breathing room to push at counter-claims/fake claims.
1am here, but will still be around for a few minutes.
Grape is lying because Bear repaced after EoD though IIRC. Never mind the other nonsense. It is impossible for a D1 shot to be Grape's choice . Simple as.
aAny town thinking about a NL right now must be pretty new to mafia.
Like really.
My thoughts on NL are this: It's mislynch or Lose. If we don't lynch anyone, no actual harm done. We can talk for 2 weeks then, if we don't have a lynch candidate we can no lynch and not be much worse off.
Lynching a townie loses us the game. No lynching doesn't. It's the safe play. It depends on our confidence in the lynch.
I think Colin should claim today so we can get everything out in the open and make an informed decision.
Also I don't like that DotA is attempting to direct the PRs like he has towncred.
Is there something wrong with a setup with two vigilantes?
Vote: AskThePizzaGuy
My vote is my permission given to end the round, as per my original request at the start of round.
I was going to go through a whole rigamarole involving solving Colin/KJ, but Colin should be solved by being murdered.
I don't have to resolve Killjoy/Colin today. And there's no way in hell I'd ever, ever, ever believe Killjoy-the-townie believes that the counterclaim to Megiddo is a villager and a viable path forward in a game where Grapefruit could be the scum one shot vig is to Not Lynch.
It either loses the game outright, which it very very likely does, since it's easy to doc-dodge. Just hit the doc. Or it allows the scums to kill village brains.
Given that, and how each has behaved toward the other, I'm just done talking to any of them for the rest of the game. I have nothing more to say.
Let's put it like this:
I've never been this confident they all just outed themselves. I've never seen a wolf catastrophe this big and I just saw 3 wolves collapse by the start of day 3 in the org game. This is bigger.
If I were to continue speaking to them like there was even a chance in hell they'd ever change my mind, I'd be slow rolling them as town. That's just plain rude and unsportsmanlike.
They had a chance to look villagery today, Jenna failed dramatically and drastically with flying colors. Grapefruit somehow managed to give EVEN more evidence that he was guilty, and I don't even know how that was possible. And Killjoy ain't Killjoy. That's never Killjoy. There's a guy with good instincts on the other side of that avatar, who knows how to be villagery and has a process that makes sense. That ain't him.
I'm locked in. They all go. You guys get there at your own pace. Decide how you want to play it out, but town doesn't win via night chess.
Town wins via checkmate. It's mate in three moves, and if we don't do the exact mate in three, it's a blunder and we get checkmated instead. Since we're out of mislynches, anything that isn't a check leading to checkmate is hanging mate in one.
That's what the No Lynch gambit was all about. It was an invitation for town to hang mate in one move.
I also am now at the point where time is actually working against us. If there's nothing left to solve, then extra time just gives us extra time to overthink it and tinfoil. This is the one instance in a hundred where town having lots of time is bad.
The only remaining danger left that I see is the town circle gets broken. That can happen. Like, even now I'm not obvious enough a townie for someone to not buy a well crafted argument that I'm scum. Colin, you can't lock town except by putting more confidence there than you should have. He's only being locked because I found the wolves, which makes him not a wolf. And because Bear interactions favor it being a pocket. Also GF's behavior toward him is a pocket.
Bear/GF both distanced from Jenna and both tried to pocket Colin. Once Jenna was under less and less pressure, and those suspecting that slot died off or chased shiny things, GF began to town read Jenna.
That's just distancing. Colin is the obvious choice for pocket, someone who isn't as engaged or present in the game, no established meta, and can be persuaded, pocketed, misled, or painted as scummy come endgame, as he was no one's lock townie.
Look, when I see my own fingerprints on scummy behavior, I immediately recognize it. That's a classic wolf move. Pocketing is effective, and of all the peeps in the game to pocket, you pocket the guy who has no meta on anyone left here, who has no known meta, who doesn't post much, so you can manipulate them and/or lynch them at the critical point.
Simple simple.
Investigative role should be on Killjoy only. Jenna is outed, GF is hard outed.
Doctor should self-protect if possible (its almost never the case) and should not protect me tonight, choose another but don't discuss who publicly. Picking me for the protect is tricksy and you should only do it if it's the person being killed. Otherwise, Tau, Dota, Tubba even, are all viable choices.
One big thing sticks out:
You're making a grievous mistake. We don't have space to move. It only appears that way. If the scums can kill twice successfully that is good game. At 4 townies and 2 scums, two kills wins. We cannot get complacent and we cannot ever no lynch.
Be super extra careful.
Goodnight.
Pure baseless fear mongering. Lynch the scum.
Because you don't pull a trigger without fully reading the whole game, even by skim. That's the only reason I'm prepared to discuss.
You also don't ever put Jenna as town without a process after "shooting" them.
That's why they're guilty. Anything else makes assumptions that don't belong in the game, and can easily be very wrong.
Wait one vote doesn't mean scum can fast hammer. They need 5. Still probably scum but not as sure as I was.
The counter argument in favour of a no-lynch would be that it gives us an extra night of information, but it's moot since we're gambling then on a strong power role surviving the night(or not being blocked) to give whatever info they received to us tomorrow.
Unless someone can make a very strong case for Grapefruit being town there is no reason not to lynch him today.
Vote: Grapefruit
Day 1 begins with twelve players alive. Assuming a terrible(but not unrealistic)start to the game, town mislynches, scum get the NK through and both Vigs hit townies. This means the next day starts with only 8 alive, which is MyLo. On day 2. The odds of two Vigs in a game this size are astronomically small.