Besides the overall differences and less-frozen-ness, I want to point at specific things that Tubba does which I think are town.
On page 1 of his ISO
Theory that there was at least 1 scum on the 5-wagon on Shadow is kind of a mathematical thing to assume.
As I'm reading the game, I think it's the least mathematically likely thing by random distribution of votes, the Shadow wagon was 5 townies voting a townie.
To clarify, Empoof is having technical problems with his main account and will be playing under the name Foopme. Vote Count 1.3 shadowlancerx - 4 (DoTArchon, Vaimes, Voxxicus, osieorb18) (L-3)
A Bear - 1 (Tubba Fett)
Vaimes - 1 (Reaverb Tau)
Voxxicus - 1 (shadowlancerx)
Not Voting - 5 (A Bear, King Torg, Jenna Tolaria, Colin, Foopme)
After this post, Jenna jumps on.
I happen to know Voxx is town, Vaimes and Osie both flipped town. Dota is such a vast townread that I won't self preserve in a tied scenario to make Dota die instead of me, I feel like that will just lead to us both dying. Jenna would then be the one scum who could be on that wagon.
Possible, and will consider. But the SAFE place to be would be off-wagon, especially if Shadow is town.
Then, people can claim that the shadow wagon must be dirty. And even townies will believe that. Mathematically, it seems likely.
But people don't behave according to even mathematical distribution. There's no reason why the scums should be voting Shadow there, as it will draw suspicion. They can still do it, but it's terrible in the long term. Only townies don't care about the long term. Townies and really bad scumbags who like to gamble. Look at where suspicion fell after the early 5 wagon on Shadow. Scums know that's gonna happen and steer clear. I think both Shadow and his wagon are clean, and that's where Tubba has gone wrong.
Not a bad assumption to make for a first time townie, but I have found based on experience that those kinds of assumptions seem correct on the surface but are not. Scums do not behave how the math says they should. I've seen them bundle all three of them on one wagon, opposed to a large wagon on a townie, just because that is unexpected. I've seen them all vote off wagon. I've seen them all vote together on a wagon if they think they can get away with it. I've seen them evenly distribute. They tend to do that by late in the round, but in the early round? They're avoiding piling on wagons if they cannot defend their vote movement later, as it comes under scrutiny.
Town tends to chase its own tail when they wagon someone early and the wagon suddenly feels wrong. That's what happened here, imo.
So Tubba makes a natural and normal assumption (It's referred to as level 1, a straightforward kind of idea, as opposed to being fancy or thinking levels deep. And btw level 1 doesn't mean newb player or bad player, it just means the straightforward approach as opposed to the tricky approach in a WIFOM situation) which many people agree with. I disagree but I do not think he's scum for it, necessarily, although scums can make this theory.
As for his later vote on Osie, in my limited experience with Osie, the more he talks, the more you want to vote him. I don't even hold this one against Tubba either. I was grumpy with Osie's behavior on day one just skimming it, but not for alignment reasons.
Something else to note, Tubba's laying out why he suspects Osie and Dota, but it does not read as jumping on weak posts, or opportunism. It looks like legitimate suspicion. I'm reading into this, and it's only like a 70/30 lean, but I think it fits what Tubba should be doing here, as a generic newtownie.
Those are the new player tells, btw Tom. Not what happened last game.
I can see the difference. Whether I'm right about if those differences make him town remains to be seen, but this is my bet.
130, 131, 136
Tubba reacts to Osie and others pushing on him. This I feel is alignment indicative because it's wildly different from how he responded to pressure in Low Fantasy. First of all, I see words. That's different. Second, I see multiple posts, a line of reactions, as opposed to a single faked reaction. Next, he's singularly focused on what HE THINKS will bust open the game, which is the Shadow wagon.
I disagree on the utility of it, but his insistence on looking here and desire to move the conversation there is much more active, participatory, and attempted-solving than Low Fantasy.
There's a bit in 130 that's difficult to follow, but I think it pertains to the shadow wagon itself and who voted when and why, and looks at the unvote from Osie. Also looking to get input from people, like if he's wrong about one person on the shadow wagon, is it someone else.
I like that, because it looks like he's relying on what he knows is the greater experience of others, while still following his own gut on what he believes is a lead from the Shadow wagon. His process matches what it often should be here, and the process itself isn't bad, it just happens to look to me like he's planted his flag and begun drilling for oil in a place with no oil. It happens. It was an okay bet. It still could be right if Jenna is scum, which I don't have reason to think as of yet.
So I'm scum because I pointed out two other players acting scummy... I really don't understand this game. If Dot and Osie's behaviour on Shadow's wagon aren't slightly scumspicious than I must be as dumb as Jenna thinks am I.
The Shadow wagon has been the biggest thing that's happened in the game so far, let's look at that. Vaimes, Dot, Osie and Voxx vote Shadow in seeming RVS. Vaimes moves on with another RVS vote as does Osie. Dot makes a big deal about Shadow's arrogance, Osie gets back on the wagon citing Dot's Point. Jenna votes Shadow at this point with no reasoning and when questioned states that Vaimes is scum but only has one vote. Jenna why did you vote Shadow in the first place? Why do you think Vaimes is scum? Tory and Voxx describe voting Shadow for those reasons as "not a good reason to kill someone, and absurdly toxic". Osie jumps off the wagon stating Shadow's arrogance isn't enough to get him lynched.
This bolded plus the narrative that follows feels like real attempts at hunting to me.
Dots next post has him getting off the wagon and backtracking on his big deal about Shadow's behaviour, and he uses the opportunity to smear (bus?) Osie.
The Shadow wagon has all but disintegrated leaving Voxx's assumed RVS vote. It'll be interesting to see who the next wagon starts on and who is on it together.
I don't subscribe to this theory, but it absolutely could be a new townie theory. I think what scums do has been colored a bit by Tubba's experience with Tom/Lngr/Lurker, where they were just outright level 1 openly scumming for the first several rounds.
With that experience under his belt, he might even think that's normally how scums behave and that we can catch them simply by watching them start and push random wagons together. That's meeting level 1 scumming with level 1 town solving. It usually doesn't work that way, in my experience, because it's too visible and even new townies can see the bad motives involved. But I can absolutely see how he might think this is normal and how to solve.
It's a place to start from. It's only when that theory proves wrong and easy for scums to avoid that it gets thrown out and replaced with level 2 scum theorizing, adding levels and subterfuge to what they're doing, and then townies decide what that subterfuge is.
In any case, Tubba believes in this process and he's driving discussion on it. And he's invested in it. Unlike this other stuff I see from scums where they distance from their own suspicions, or make it someone else's fault that they're under suspicion, this all looks like his theory, his work, his investment.
I find that to be townier than not. And it's not the exact opposite of his scum method, but strikingly different from Low Fantasy.
@ Osie So the behaviour wasn't scummy, I'm just a moronic knob punching away at a keyboard. Good to know. So you're cleared because I don't want to be insulted again, tell me this. Do you think scum would have a vote on Shadow somewhere in the five people that were on the wagon? If you do, who is your most likely suspect? If not, I'll just mosey back to the corner with my dunce cap.
Even here, he's asking his suspect who else it could be on the Shadow wagon and why, if not Osie.
I believe if Osie had made a convincing case, Tubba would have moved to that person. I don't have proof, but that's what this post indicates is lurking behind the surface. There's an underlying solving process that I can understand, follow, and believe holds worth in Tubba's mind.
I don't agree with it or its conclusions, but that does not make him scum. In fact it's strikingly townie, so far.
@Tau
I waited to vote, because I like to wait to vote I guess. I like to think about where I'm putting my vote and why I want to put it there.
Osie's vote seemed scummier to me because it came after Dot brought up Shadow's arrogance. Osie was the first one off the wagon when people started to discuss it.
That's why I voted that slot.
The emphasis on the word after was originally there. This emphasis is based on specifically what Tubba is taking issue with. The emphasis shows he believes what he's saying is valid, and because he's invested in it, not to mention, it also shows that this is what was going on in his head at the time.
Again and again, I return to the same old "what was going on in your head at the time" because Scums Do Not Have The Same Things Going On In Their Head.
They cannot remember stuff they never actually thought. They can fake it, after the fact, if they're good, but they usually forget to fake-remember.
Townies remember what they were thinking and why, and can elaborate, and they do it without being prompted too much. It's natural, like revealing the layers of an onion. They were just there all along, they were not hastily assembled once you began cutting into the onion.
That's what I see on just page 1 of Tubba's iso.
That's a huge, marked difference from his behavior in Low Fantasy. Yeah, he could have specifically changed tactics and leveled up his game. But this would be a jump from a level 1 kind of deceptive behavior to a level 5 deception. With love, Tubba, I don't think you advanced that fast that rapidly. I believe you'll be able to fake this one day, just not today. Maybe next game, in fact, since I just laid out exactly how to fool me and what you need to fake.
I'm only continuing with this ISO as a formality.
Here's something else that's lacking: No passive aggression. Tubba is direct and means what he says, there's no subtext or innuendo. Example:
@Tau
My bear vote was strictly RVS, there is nothing more to it.
There hadn't been a whole lot of serious content prior to my vote on Osie. The wagon on Shadow was the most significant thing happening at the time, and (imo) odds have at least one scum on that wagon. The scummiest behaviour on that wagon was Osie's. Dot's is a close second, but following along with his crummy reason to lynch Shadow seems worse. Once King and Voxx mention how bad it is, Osie is the first to jump. That's when I felt pretty good voting that slot, but the deadline was miles away so it seemed fine to wait and see what else happened.
Your read on my sequence is wrong. My Osie vote was never RVS, but a vote on the slot that seemed the most scummy to me.
What do you think about Dot/Osie's play on the Shadow wagon? Was there scum on the wagon, if so, who?
These are all direct and pointed and easy to understand statements of fact, from Tubba's POV.
There are no weasel words or psychological distancing from his own suspicions. He owns them, he pushes them. He paints a world and tried to get people subscribed to it.
I think a big part of why we lynched Osie yesterday is because there were townies pushing cases they believed on Osie, and scums took advantage. It's easy to mislynch when townies are doing the heavy lifting.
They pushed the Shadow wagon out of nowhere, then they began beating the shift out of the people who shifted to the Shadow wagon, pummeling themselves. All scums had to do on day one was take advantage. Meanwhile, I feel like actual suspicions landed on a scum as well, and everyone on that wagon is going to end up dead shortly, as I'm the last one. Makes it real simple to hide when there are no confirmed townies based on wagonomics.
Comment 153
@Osie
I'm not trying to imply you or any other ghost based animal is bad at this game. If anything, I'm bad at this game. Your vote, followed by your unvote shortly after is the scummiest behaviour I've noticed. I've no interest in personally attacking anyone, or trying to put them down. Maybe we have a communication mixup here but I'm just trying to play a game. Stop with the cryptic ghost/Claritin/Niagra Falls/panda stuff and maybe we can figure this out.
@Tau
I don't know what to tell you. You're really hung up on my RVS vote, and I've gotta say, I don't get it. What percentage of random votes end up being serious? When it's a vote that matters, when I'm actually making a statement about how I feel the game is going, I prefer to have more information, to take more time. When it's a throwaway random vote, not so much.
This all looks like townie-on-townie violence. Osie and Tau are unable to communicate on a level that Tubba agrees with, and likewise, Tubba is just not getting where Osie and Tau are coming from. Each is nitpicking the other and swallowing each other into mutual tunnels.
I can follow how this happened normally. It didn't have to happen from scums pushing that narrative, it's just "villagers gonna village", chapter 297.
What we have here is a failure to communicate.
198 the confusion and mutual scumreads between Tau, Osie, and tubba reached such a fevered pitch that he's starting to believe he's found enough scums to call it a day one solve. Even Colin joins in, and from Tubba's POV, he must think he's found the whole team.
Fanciful thinking, but I like that optimism. We found a scum and rattled loose two more based on day one behavior in the last game I was in. Finding that last scum was a devil and a half, but there's no reason why villagers shouldn't be optimistic and trying to find the whole team on day one. It can happen, I've seen it happen, and only if you keep reaching for that gold at the end of the rainbow.
I would lynch Osie, Reverb, Colin, Jenna and Dot.
I've mentioned my conspiracy theory regarding my top three. Jenna makes the list because while I feel like I'm on the verge of understanding what's been said, I don't feel like working that hard to figure it out. Dot is on the list despite a feeling that he's town, he's not around, he's got some scum stain, and I don't want a no-lynch.
This list just looks like frustration boiling over, which is also townie. Jenna and Dota being mentioned here despite some positive feelings, is like a kill em all and let god sort them out approach. Which, after watching Tubba's progression up to this point, I can believe. He's been talking to a brick wall and being mutually suspected by Osie and Colin and has been struggling to understand Jenna and has just been impossible to mutually understand, between him and reaverb.
This list of five, might even all be wrong, and I don't think it even makes Tubba scum. I follow how he arrived here and it all looks natural to me.
I think he's 1 in 5 at best, and I don't even favor the odds of that being the case.
If the rest of his game was a bunch of process-free emotion-free commitment-free depth-free randomness, I'd think this leans list makes him scum.
I don't. The rest of his game carries him, despite these reads being so different from mine. You don't lynch tubba to win this game if you're town. Convincing him to abandon these suspects is another matter but it's got zilch to do with his alignment. And I still need to look into Jenna.
@Voxx
Regarding your feelings on Bear, I'm inclined to take your word for it, I've no previous experience with them so everything you say could be true and a perfectly valid reason to put vote pressure on them. However, I dont think you are going to be able to bring enough people on with what is essentially a meta read to make a lynch happen there. Talk to me about Osie, Tau, Dot and Colin. Does your meta offer you any insight on those players?
Alright. Despite the glowing iso, I feel compelled to point out that this can be what a scum should be doing here to steer discussion away from Scum!Bear.
That said, last game, a townie did just that and I tunneled them ad infinitum for it and never forgave them because it was "something the scums should be doing".
I won't make that same mistake again, I'll just say this CAN be a strategy to save Scum!bear.
The rest of his iso makes me discount that as the most likely possibility. I think he's got wrong reads and the wrong argument at the wrong place and time, despite being innocent.
That's why I focus on process and depth, not reads. You have to be able to determine that Tubba is a townie here if he is based on how he's playing and how he's thinking, not how he's voting or what specifically he's arguing for.
I have a phone call I have to make before 3pm my time about a job, I can't continue this but I'm laboring the point as it is.
Tubba is pure. His reads should change, in my view, but they're based on villaging.
I also predict sorrow when his suspicions on the Voxx/Pizza slot don't dissipate, but there's nothing I can do about that and these are my real feelings about his ISO. Give me a lynch and I'll give you scum blood to analyze. For every day I fail to lynch a scumbag, you may lynch me, Tubba. Not before.
@PizzaGuy I really don't buy this Dota read at all. I outlined why in my big post but you doubling down that you wouldn't lynch it to self pres is crazy to me.
I actually really like the first half of the tubba read (it's midnight I'm tired and had to stop) but I felt tubba was fairly obvious town to begin with. So I'm easy to convince there.
Grapefruit's response to Pizza is darn impressive. Like, I would be impressed if he was scum and just went toe to toe like that.
Pizza, the strength of your town read on Dota (not self pres voting by your own admission) is concerning. I kinda like Dota for town, but not even close to that much.
@Dota didn't I say RIP vaimes? Not bear? Or did bear say that too? Also I want to hear your case for Scum!Torg. Not just telling me to do my own work.
No, you said "I miss Vaimes already" in 369(Day 2), Bear said "rip vaimes" in 331(Day 1). Where did you get the idea that you had said it? Torg has a total of 10 posts and there is practically no content in any of them. No serious attempts at scum hunting and very vague reads. I wasn't really asking for someone to actually make a town case so much as seeing if anyone would try.
As for why I think Dota is scum I think Dota is for his wonky progression on D1 that felt a lot like trying to set up a mislynch chain. And his completely unnatural progression on Torg.
What mislynch chain was I trying to set up? I voted Osie, explained why I voted Osie, and stuck to that read.
He also calls Torg scum in 265 on flimsy reasoning (why is voting someone for an over explainy RVS a bad thing?) and asks a couple of questions. He never follows up on them or presses Torg for answers. He then puts him in the scum side of his meh pile in 418 saying he needs to reread. Then he just posts a link to the ISO and says make a case why Torg is town. It's the sort of non engaged fishing expedition that comes from scum more often than not.
There was more to my read on Torg in the post you mentioned than just the RVS post, I also brought up the unexplained unvote on Tau and the scum claim. As for my questions, Torg did answer them in 271. I wasn't around between then and the end of Day 1, so where was I supposed to have followed up? I feel like you're trying very hard to bend the facts to fit your narrative of me.
Dota, who are King Torg's partners and why are you town?
Stab in the dark at the scum team, Killjoy-Grapefruit-Torg. I have/had a townread on KJ but while going through the game now page by page with a Ctrl-F for Torg I came across this interaction:
@Killjoy I played the newb mafia game on this site, and it kinda sucked, so I'm giving it another shot in this game. That's it.
I don't really know what scum!DoTA would be trying with that post, but I know that it's not a town move at all. There's no way an experienced player like DoTA would just hop on an L-3 wagon with the justification that "shadow is scary." My best guess is that he was trying to generate negative shadow vibes for a future myslynch or something like that.
What do you think of Osie? And... lets say Voxx? What about him?
Killjoy's response is not actually what I would expect from someone looking for scum, he doesn't fact check any of what Torg has said here (I didn't hop on an L-3 wagon, mine was the first vote...) and pushes him for more reads on other people. Need to do a more thorough read of KJ with this in mind.
Hm.
KT, explain what you think scum!DoTa is thinking when making this post?
I was trying to get him to think it through, and show me where his mind ends up there. Like, draw me a line using his brain from that post to scum!DotA.
`~SNIP~
To DotA:
I might not have been clear. I was referring to 52->shadow being about semantics. You say he's cocky. Why does that mean anything?
Also, in rereading the above quote, and your ISO, I have another question for you: Can you explain the mindset about #57? What were you thinking when you posted it, what you were looking for in an answer, etc.
So I futher clarify my "is this more than jsut semantics" and then ask him about his respose to Jenna's blind vote on Shadow which was something like "is that all?" which I felt was oddly worded for town. Like, town would ask for someone to expand on a thought... but my initial thought of it was "Is DotA trying to notify his scumbuddy Jenna that she needs to expand or else she'll look scummy". So I asked for his mindset while posting, which he later gave and unfortunately it wasn't really alignment indicative like I'd hoped it would be.
Emphasis mine. Me asking Jenna to explain a vote could be me notifying a scumbuddy to expand on a read, his post to Torg and then lack of follow through looks exactly the same to me...
Dota's iso is fantastic and I'm only halfway through it. I'm severely tempted to lock dota away as town forever based on 121 alone.
I'd be lying if it was just that one post though. The rest of his iso so far looks good, but that one post is fantastic. Depth of reads, depth of thoughts not revealed in initial posts, complex thoughts, solving questions, and similar reads to my own, all contained within one post.
If this is possible from scum-dota someone has to say something because he's now my top town read.
Not sure if pocketing or Xyre 2.0 If I didn't already have such a strong townread of Voxx I'd seriously be considering the first, your entrance and subsequent reads are cementing that townread even further.
@Dota ohhh Bear said it too. I didn't think you meant that wording literally. I thought you just meant my missing Vaimes post.
As for when you would have followed up with Torg I'd have expected you to follow up on it D2 rather than the open question to make a case for town Torg.
Forum ate my post, and it took me a long time to write it, so I'm constructing this one in a safe location, and this is the short version that hits the main bullet points.
Hi PizzaGuy! Good to have some activity in this game! Also your read on Dota is pretty bad. You point to 121 as the crux but I don't agree with your conclusion at all. First though let's take a look at 102:
121 is the promised more in depth, but we have the action here. First Dota assumes that Osie's vote is 100% serious and not a glorified wagons! post like Voxx's was. Second this tactic is straight out of a scum playbook. Turning on another person on an RVS wagon while blocking off pushing others is scum 101. To accept this complete focus on Osie as town I'd really want to see justification for why the others on the wagon were townie and that just largely doesn't happen. And he never seems to show an interest in sorting out the rest of the wagon. Just stays focused on Osie.
First point (red): Doesn't make a point. It's a fair assumption to make, given the context.
DotA's PointU
Sorcery (C)
Fateseal 2.
Draw a card. What? It's a good point. Vote: Shadowlancerx seriously this time.
Shadowlancerx, Unlynched Wolf2RG
Legendary Creature - Wolf (M)
Deathtouch, trample
If Shadowlancerx would die, instead exile it, then return it to the battlefield transformed with three loyalty counters.
3/2
// Shadowlancerx, the Unlynchable
Legendary Planeswalker - Shadowlancerx
Prevent all damage that would be dealt to Shadowlancerx.
+1: Vote target creature or player. Shadowlancerx deals 1 damage to that creature or player.
-8: Reveal yourself as the last surviving scum. Transform Shadowlancerx, then creatures you control get +4/+4 and gain haste, deathtouch, and trample.
Osie's post proves that your point is less than accurate. In fact, there's really no way to think this vote isn't serious. Osie literally says it's a serious vote, and then in character, continues calling shadow a wolf. If it's not serious, then Osie shouldn't have been putting shadow at L-3 and then left their vote there when Jenna jumped on to make it L-2.
It might not have been based on suspicion, but something about "arrogance" which I won't go into here. But I don't put people close to being lynched and then walk away if I don't want them to be lynched.
It wasn't just LOLWAGONS, by any stretch of the imagination. It was a self-described "serious" vote.
Second point (orange): Scum 101, you say?
"Turning on another person on an RVS wagon while blocking off pushing others is scum 101".
I know you're not suggesting that only scums do this. I've seen townies do it more often than scums do it, in my experience, and in yours as well, I have to assume. I know you're not suggesting that it's mostly scums who do this. Mainly, because any wagon that forms this way would have to be made of mostly wolves for it to be mostly wolves suggesting that the wagon itself has wolves on it.
Otherwise, it's full of mostly villagers, and when the accusation is made that wolves are pushing that wagon, it's going to come from villagers, more often than not, because the wagon is... full of mostly villagers.
And a wagon full of mostly wolves wouldn't accuse the wagon of forming suddenly because a bunch of wolves jumped on it. That doesn't happen often in my experience.
So this "Scum 101" stuff here is factually not the case. It's going to be mostly townies accusing their own wagon of being scum-laden, because anything else would be insane.
More likely, is the scums OFF OF THE WAGON to claim a wagon full of townies is made of mostly scums. Wouldn't you concur with that assessment?
I mean, a large number of townies, in an awkward and attackable position. There, they are safely off of the wagon, spreading suspicion onto many townies at once.
That seems a lot more likely to me. Mainly because I've seen it happen so much, and because I know for a fact that wagon had at least 3 townies on it, and Dota's iso is exceedingly villagery.
Osie was pushed, and Dota was pushed for this Shadow wagon stuff. Not only that, but your own slot (owned by bear at the time) focused heavily on this.
First, they suggested that Dota was scum, and then they called Osie town, and then proceeded to talk almost exclusively about how Osie could be scum, and then called for an Osie/Dota thunderdome.
Vaimes, the problem is that the only reason that those metas were like that is because Sotek forced everyone to act in a way that was +ev to him specifically for collecting data as long as he was the only one using The Machine. Everyone was enamoured with it, so they went along with it for years and years and years. Sotek didn’t really practice what he preached as far as voting went, either, btw. You can look that up. The only reasons why he voted outside of consolidation were to try to influence wagons in a way that gave him even more data. I know I’m town, and I don’t need to analyze my own votes to be able to read my own role PM… is basically the thing. Also, I’m trying a new strat. I don’t think it’s going to work in this game because it’s been dead air in here most of the time... Voxx says it works for him on this forum, though? The “sit back and watch other players do things without your influence in order to generate something as close to (wide text) spectator chat reads as possible”? I think that’s my wording and not his at the end there but I feel like with my IRL situation it’s the strat that makes the most sense for me rn. Even if I had time, regular Beruposting would drown the thread, so...
As far as analyzing things from a votes perspective in this game, it’s mostly been trash so far. I’ve moved on to charting people’s town/scumreads because that seems more helpful to me than the scattered votes I’m seeing? I need more pen colours and a bigger sheet of paper, but mostly I’m just keeping track of hard town/scumreads right now. I’m still surprised that literally nobody is townreading Archon, but it turns out that Osie isn’t actually being townread by anyone either? Shadow has been getting some minor townreads, mostly for being the wagon target, I think, but… I think it would be useful if people ranked Osie/Archon/Shadow and gave reasons, tbh. Like, people are making read walls, so I can see where they’re at, but if you don’t give actual reasons for why people are where they are, you can just bull***** a list of names.
Things I actually got out of the machine…
Osie’s vote movements indicate that he’s most likely town, but he put himself in a position where, if he’s mafia, he has to be super ultra town in order to not just ******* Die from early misplays. He also has the worst positions/reasoning on the Shadow wagon. Besides that, though, his content is way better than Archon, in that it actually exists, he has more than one scumread (or read period tbh), and he’s actually engaging people. I feel like if the Shadow wagon hadn’t happened, this guy wouldn’t be getting as many scumreads as he actually is.
Also beginning to wonder if Archon’s team is just leaving him for dead, tbh? Literally nobody is willing to defend him or get him to explain anything, but hardly anyone is actually voting for him. After he got scumread by basically everyone, he disappeared, too. Maybe they’re just hoping we’ll consolidate on someone else? Going into antispew a week before deadline is just giving up...
I really, really, really just want Archon and Osie to thunderdome, tbh. It would help a lot.
Vote: DoTArchon
I don’t think Tubba and Osie are w/w. I don’t think anyone would try to bury a partner that hard. Same goes for Osie/Jenna. It’s possible that Osie is extremely comfortable because he knows that neither of them is getting lynched off of his pushes and is doing some distancing so that if he ends up as today’s lynch, one/both of them look a lot better? Jenna is also voting Archon and has dug in her heels about it for a long time, even though she scumreads both Archon and Osie. Tubba is voting Osie, and also did this, like, weird OMGUS post about Reaver/Osie/Colin? so if someone is more likely to be scum with Osie, it’s prooobably Jenna.
Feeling something like Tubba/Archon +1 or Osie/Jenna/ +1 isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Tubba probably isn’t with Reaver or Colin either? The reaction to the scumreads is… I mean, if Tubba's scared that his partner(s) are going to bus him D1 for no reason and is flipping the **** out about getting, like, two votes? maybe? We have time to resolve this, tho.
I can pull up votals from any point in the game, btw, so if you want the state of the votal at the time someone voted, you can just @ me and I'll dump it.
Fun Beru Facts: just realized that this is the first game I’ve actually played with Voxx in at least three years, maybe four? That’s weird.
That's a lot of calling someone scum who your slot just said was likely town.
Calling for them to be pushed in a thunderdome and examining w/w teams with Osie is not something your slot should be doing if you think Osie is "likely town."
If anything is Scum 101, Grapefruit, it's calling someone likely townie while also feeding everyone reasons to lynch them and putting them as one of your top suspects.
So we are not lynching Dota before we lynch you, primarily, because when you flip scum, Dota is lock town.
And he's already the equivalent just by reading his posts.
And since you've stated outright you're not moving your vote, talking to you at all won't bear fruit. But maybe your lynch will.
You are the scummiest guy in this game by far, and I'm going to push you until you die.
Grapefruit's response to Pizza is darn impressive. Like, I would be impressed if he was scum and just went toe to toe like that.
Pizza, the strength of your town read on Dota (not self pres voting by your own admission) is concerning. I kinda like Dota for town, but not even close to that much.
You seem easy to impress then. I'd advise you to read him more closely, but since you've already made up your mind, I'll have to do this without you.
When I call someone likely town, I don't also run around making statements and pushing worlds where they are a good lynch candidate.
Frankly, any villager who does such a thing would be un-bear-able. In my experience, it's mostly wolves who proclaim someone townie but then invent reasons why they're still a good lynch.
That's talking out of both sides of one's mouth. It's passive-aggressive. It's being superficially in favor of someone while also stabbing them in the back.
Anyone who does that in any game can get rekt. Sorry you have to hang for your predecessor's crimes, but the way you've played since you've replaced in seals the deal for me. There's no way you can believe what you've said to me, and I will not have dota die before you.
All I'm prepared to discuss now is other folks, since further converse on the matter is a waste of time, but my vote is not moving to those other persons.
Stab in the dark at the scum team, Killjoy-Grapefruit-Torg.
I'd have liked more time to be able to question Torg. Of my scum leans, he's the weakest, but I also found very little that could be considered villager tells in his ISO.
In the past several games I've found scums but let one slip away. If there are scums outside of this trio, what are you thinking?
As of now, these are my leans:
Vaimes- dead town tracker
Osieorb18- dead town
-
Voxx/thepizzaguy
DoTArchon- never lynching DoTA
Tubba Fett- never lynching Tubba
Colin- iso looks fairly townie, no lock, would like more. Hopefully their vote pattern can get them up to lock, but we'll have to see.
-
(reaverb Tau)- fairly good town lean by skim, need to iso
(Shadowlancerx)- vaguely town, need to iso
(Jenna Tolaria)- near rand, need to iso
-
King replace out- lean scum, but I can't converse with them to discuss their process, and see if there aren't villagery depths to their game.
Kill/'em, poof- good lean scum, seems like a cardboard cutout of Killjoy rather than Killjoy. I need more if I'm to reverse this lean.
Bear/Fruit- iso of both reveals vastly scummy behavior. He's caught.
Ok, I ISO'ed Jenna and have a lean. But this took me 2 hours, and it's INSANE, and it's really long.
I'm hungry, tired, and I have a headache. For those of you who won't read it, I lean town on Jenna. More than Colin, but it's about equal. We'll have to see what Colin does when he starts moving again.
The actual work, I'll spoiler and put into my next several posts.
I've played before, and I think Vaimes is mafia, but he only has 1 vote so not bothering with that. I'll have more to say as the evidence piles in.
This is a strikingly unusual thought process, I think X is mafia but won't vote them until they have more votes. Especially this early in a given round or game. It's not perfect information/distancing, as Vaimes already flipped townie. So other processes that can be taking place here involve what?
Options seem to be in order of likelihood:
A tactic like a trap, to see who votes there
Legitimate suspicion phrased oddly
A joke / just stirring the pot
A scum saying a townie is a scum but won't vote there until they get more votes, which can draw questions and attention. If not immediately, then in the long term.
I really don't favor the last theory. I think it's more like a trap post, which is often townie but not always.
3rd post, votes Vaimes when asked to do so.
4th post:
Nothing about Vaimes's posts make me trust him or inspire me to take anything he's saying with even a microdose of truth. Osieorb I'm just not reading because I can't understand his posts. King Torg is someone I wouldn't trust with a secret. Colin's roleplaying is probably harmless but it is also empty of substance, bare of reason. Barer than bare of reason. Reason suggests there is a point to it all. And there is a bear, a bear a bear a bear a bear a bear. Why?
Alright so the clarification is legitimate suspicion. Osie's posts are a bit hard to follow. Not trusting King Torg, which as I'm seeing today, has been followed up on with a vote. I also don't trust that slot. Colin got more substantive later, but his first post bears this reaction. Not sure what to make of bear's name being repeated. It's not a town read, but it's also not anything else.
5th post:
It comes off really sleazy to point out a potential omission that may have come from a very clearly innocuous point of view ("only been lynched once"), And Then then suggesting that it is perspective-neutral, And Then manifesting it into a negatively-received response of an assessment of a factual nature.
Vote: Dotarchon
I must spoil temporal evidence:
The vote was the intended end of my post. What occurs beyond this follows from an internalized comment: "Now, JT, it appears there is plenty of time to secure a vote, don't you think you're being a bit hasty?"
And so I acceded to myself and browsed SL's reply where he corrected DA. It was thoughtful, and once again came with vacant internal scurrying.
As a side note, I find OO's reaction troubling, not because of its extreme indecipherability, but because I detect malice towards SL.
But the central matter is still DA's reaction. And I think we can all leave it at that. DA certainly did. Or didn't.
It seems the time shenanigans are beginning. Or have already begun. Or will they? DA both knows and doesn't know. A Schrodinger's DA. He can't take it back because there was never anything to give. In the first place.
Ok, so this is a fabricated persona, in my opinion. This is little more than a conscious affectation.
That by itself is null, townies do it too.
Deconstructing the post into something meaningful and in plain, non-poofy language, reads something like...
"Dota's argument picking on Shadow's note that he's only been lynched once is cocky, and therefore he might be lynch worthy, is scummy.
Vote.
Fluff fluff fluff, after this vote I went back to re-read something, Shadow's previous response, and thought it was thoughtful, and came with... an absence of... nervousness?
Thinks Osie is being malevolent toward shadow, and thus is suspicious.
But wants to focus on Dota.
Several lines of nonsense for theatrical purposes."
So, if that's the underlying process, what does it mean?
Well, taken by itself, it reads like Jenna is suspicious of Dota because of the line about lynching shadow for being cocky.
I think that's reading too much into it, because I've seen plenty of townies vote people out of frustration, or to call bluffs, or in response to arrogance or cocksuredness. Whenever someone rubs you the wrong way, it's liable to get you voted. I think that's null.
Not everyone thinks that's null, and reads into it for scum motive. I've found you hit mostly townies when following up on that, but I've seen that process enough to think it can come from townies most of the time.
Ultimately though, it's a null indicator. It's too easy for scums to do as well.
6th post
Perhaps I have played mafia before. Or I have played it in the future. Perhaps this is my first game of this sort while communicating on a message board and not in real life. It is also likely that I browsed the other mafia games going on and thought, "yes JT, this looks like A Thing You Could Do."
I was not expecting it to be so cerebral, I will admit. Everyone threw votes onto SL and I assumed it was a non-trivial matter to Beat The First Object That Moved, which I can tell you evoked a sigh of that matter. And yet here I am in a new day with a mood reversal from the observation that these developments are not stupid.
To your other question, RT, I believe I made it clear that the empirical evidence, to use your emphasis, exists in the future. The current existence is simply Words On A Screen that evoke distrust. Unless, you are suggesting I express personal reasons outside of my Words On A Screen, in which I must respectfully decline. I don't feel it is acceptable to ask anyone for... Words Beyond A Screen.
Gale-cut SL, I observed your question and I found its premise to be preposterous and discarded it without response. And yet it the same time, I do not recall ever seeing it. Perhaps I will see it soon.
The first paragraph is just bull. Null-aligned bull, but bull.
Next paragraph is just commentary, which is often not a great look. But it's not a strong indicator either way.
Next several lines seem to mean "I distrust this person, but I dont have evidence of their guilt yet". Declines to give additional reasons.
Finally, flat out doesn't answer Shadow's question and makes a point of saying so.
It's easy to miss questions, but most folks have the good courtesy to respond if they see them, and especially if they're responding to a prompt about it.
Osie and Voxx (I think) and several others became grumpy at how day 1 was unfolding, and there is some slight toxicity and anti-team mentality on display here.
Unfortunately, I usually encounter such from townies who are set on being stubborn and unhelpful as part of a super cool badass strategy they thought of which will make them seem larger than life. What a rebel, I play the game my own way.
Well, if someone chooses to play that way you can't stop them. You can only control your own vote and behavior and let the record stand.
Wasting time talking to someone who will be a brick wall, or unhelpful, if they're on your team, is a time sink. Better to just lynch the scums.
Not comparing Jenna to an inactive as a like-comparison, but for difficult-slot reasons, and contrasting the differences,
It's kind of like if there are no replacements and you think a totally inactive slot is town, but the host won't modkill them. I've played with that before. Basically, I treat it like the game randed with 2 less people and I have fewer lynches to work with. If someone chooses to win as scum by never posting, they're a coward and I won't play with them again. It's bad enough I have to play as town with 1 hand tied behind my back with a fellow townie not voting or helping me lynch scums or clearing themselves in any way, I'll still be game to try, but I won't want to play with them much either after that.
It's a tough choice but a conscious choice. That's how I deal with completely wasted slots. Give them a town read that you'd lynch only if everyone else left in the game is very strongly townread and they're POE.
For players that are playing, voting, and giving their opinions, limited though they may be, and uncooperative at times, I work around the slot. They're doing the minimum that is required. All you have to do is vote, and I can try to determine your alignment based off of that. It's not much, but it's something.
Here, to me, Jenna is playing in a way that suits them, and it is above the bare minimum, so I have to try to work with that slot, especially if I town read them.
I think this behavior often comes from townies but it's no lock, that's for sure.
7th post: Non-answer to Shadow, plus fluff, and already went into why this behavior is anti-team, but not scummy.
8th post:
I think that while the odds prove favor, it is also quite foolish to conflate a hypothetical 80% into a 100%. Four times you win, One time you die. Is such a significant chance of death a self-advisable reality? Speaking of which, here comes DA with his recollection of a reality that does not match ours. His past self left behind no clues that would corroborate this suggestion, and in all cases it can be concluded that he is from a doomed timeline. My future self apologizes for the forthcoming image of DA, but there is nothing further regarding that matter than to rend.
What I'm getting from this is... the idea that there could be one scum on the wagon is fine, but suggesting there MUST be one scum on the wagon loses the game a lot of the time. But still suspicious of Dota.
Actually, a quite reasonable post. I rather like this one a lot.
So there is a thought process that is reasonable and experienced and is trying to converse despite the persona-mask-roleplay they're doing.
If they can't even stick to being stubborn and unhelpful and not answering questions, then deep down, they really want to help town win the game, I think.
Scums should be in more control of their own behavior. Here, Jenna slips out of the mask by mistake, it looks like, and becomes helpful and reasonable again, buried under layers of roleplay.
I'm going to give this post a solid town point. Villagers who want to win and are roleplaying can't help themselves but to break free of this confinement and make points they wish to make which are really reasonable and solid.
So under this persona, is a person who would more often than not be more helpful, talkative, and straightforward, and that's breaking through the affectation because it's in their nature.
A scum doesn't have such a conflicted nature. Their goals are clear and if they've chosen a path of being obstinate and unhelpful, they're committed to the strategy and will stick to their mask, as they have no real motive not to.
A lot of what we do in these games is determined by the nature of who we are. I'm compulsive, I can't not do a certain set of actions when I'm a townie. Whoever this person is, also has a nature, which is overriding their predetermined plan of action.
That conflict reveals something more important about the user behind Jenna: They are trying to win the game for town... a lot of the time.
I still can't call this a lock, as it's involved in layers of deception, and deception is often scummy. But this level of open deception more often is not.
This ISO will take absolutely forever if I keep doing it this way, and no one will read it.
So my impression of the slot is that they're a townie with an affectation playing in a chosen way, but their nature is not actually fully obstinate or unhelpful, and their nature is what is compelling them to go against their roleplay or within the confines of it to help town.
So, I'll be looking for confirmations or counterindicators in the next couple pages, and I won't cover every post.
The following posts seem to indicate frustration with the game state, which I shared just reading it and skimming through it. So I kinda believe it.
@AB: Of course I am not Kanaya or playing as Kanaya. What you see is myself. The game channels my inner Kanaya, and chiding me for not "roleplaying" her or following specific conventions universally thereof is preposterous.
This post is a lie. It's at best playing up certain natural parts of your persona, but it's not the genuine article.
The struggle I'm seeing within your own posts between the affectation and your underlying persona is evidence of this lie.
You kinda feel like Tom or Lulz at this point, who I imagine would be playing like this. Doesn't really matter who it is, though. Could be ISO, could be someone from off-board. I call out lies when I see them, if it pertains to how I'm reading you anyway. Doesn't mean you're scum, just that I completely don't buy this line at all.
I see no reason not to end the day with one less DA or OO.
Willing to thunderdome Dota or Osie, which isn't good, imo. A scum should be arguing for this idea.
I must say that attempting to quote posts is an exercise in Frustration Gratuity when the simple aim is my head to the game: flattened and wrapped.
VX. CO, and myself are Those Trusted.
KJ and SL are Unknown Agents,
VI, AB, RT, TF, KT require Future JT to chime: Please remind me of these people? Thank you for that prompt response about AB particularly.
DA and OO are Those Untrusted.
Future JT, again: Even if you still distrust OO, it would go a long way to fulfill the twelve.
This is slight Future JT speaking: AB aligns with you, Past JT, in both thought and assignment.
Looks like Voxx, Colin, and Jenna are in Jenna's town.
Killjoy and Shadowlancer are not trusted but not suspected.
Vaimes, A bear, reaverb, Tubba, and King Torg- reminder to look at these people later.
Dota and Osie are suspected.
A bear "aligns with you in thought and assignment". A note that bear is sheeping them? Dunno.
I follow how this list came about, even if I don't agree with it.
I think this post ends up being the answers that Osie was complaining were not forthcoming from the slot. So, they answered them, in their way.
Nothing for alignment here but this does match the psychological pattern I am getting from them before, which is that their cryptic-roleplaying-deliberatelyodd-unhelpfulness is a facade, and underneath that is someone who is motivated to play the game even in spite of these self-imposed restrictions and handicaps. Probably a very bored veteran who plays a lot with this group and wanted something different. Like Tom, who has been on several alts.
This reads exactly like Tom levels of approach to the game and a desire to see the game through to a good outcome.
I don't agree with his reads, and I can see how it can be scum. I just don't read it that way.
Based on recent transactions I feel like I must rescind my auspice relationship with OO as well as being moirails with AB.
Decides to back away from Bear, if I'm reading this right, there's distrust forming here. Which I believe, and agree with.
01. TubbaFett - If Colin's claims are true, TF should perish.
02. DoTArchon - Continuing pursuit.
03. Voxxicus - Nocturnal victim already trusted.
04. Reaverb Tau - Historical side remains to be seen.
05. Grapefruit21 r. A Bear - Conflicting vouchers leave me perplexed.
06. King Torg - Wishing for remains to be seen.
07. shadowlancerx - Doubtlessly respected.
08. Jenna Tolaria - Respects doubt.
09. Colin - Doubt remains, respectfully.
10. Killjoy r. Empoof - I haven't seen any posts by Killjoy.
Don't agree with Tubba being lynched. What claims?
Definitely don't agree with Dota.
Voxx- saying Vaimes trusted him. Maybe this is agreement with that.
reaverb- I also haven't slotted them, so I get the wait and see approach.
Grapefruit- I agree with suspicion here, obviously.
King- Wishing for remains to be seen, that's an excellent joke. Highly underrated. And I agree with the suspicion.
Shadowlancer- respected, sure. Town? Maybe. Leaning that way.
Jenna- self, and lean town to me.
Colin- I haven't locked them town either, just leaning that way.
Killjoy's posts are quite forgettable this game for some reason. I feel the same thing, if that's what you're saying.
I mean, you're arriving at a lot of similar positions to me, and I follow why.
I can't lock you town but that's what's indicated to me by this ISO.
I'm only now getting to the third page of this ISO. This was a challenge and a half.
My lunch is getting cold, so I'm speeding through the last page.
The contrast between Torg and Tubba causes great amusement.
One showcases fear of the unknown, the other yearns to understand it. Would it be too far-fetched to suggest that these poles translate into other matters? I think not. My mind's made.
I think s/he's reading Torg scum and Tubba townie here, which I concur with. And based on how theyre approaching Jenna, no less.
04. Reaverb Tau - Oft seen, yet topics unremarkable.
05. Grapefruit21 r. A Bear - Perhaps I should have listened to me of past future. I will observe the new shell.
02. DoTArchon - The transdimensional nightmare.
06. King Torg - The unthinker.
09. Colin - The untrustable. Comments toward Bear, Tubba, and myself defy reality. Queued for disposal.
Yes, I see the townpoints Tubba got here.
Voxx, same as before.
Shadow same as before.
Jenna, self.
Puts Killjoy too high, imo. Were you not suspecting them? I must have been misreading previous posts, or this is a contradiction.
Tau in the middle.
Grapefruit is being given some rope.
Still disagree on Dota.
I like the suspicion on Torg.
Not there on Colin. I liked his iso too much. Needs to be moved back up the queue.
Big long quotes. Not understanding the point of the votes retelling post. I'm getting a little frustrated reading this.
Understanding is happening but at a cost of a lot of wearing me out just reading it.
Vaimes- dead town tracker
Osieorb18- dead town
-
Voxx/thepizzaguy
DoTArchon- never lynching DoTA
Tubba Fett- never lynching Tubba
Jenna Tolaria- never locking this person town, but I see the process and that's almost always gonna be town here, even if it's who I think it is.
Colin- iso looks fairly townie, no lock, would like more. Hopefully their vote pattern can get them up to lock, but we'll have to see.
-
(reaverb Tau)- fairly good town lean by skim, need to iso
(Shadowlancerx)- vaguely town, need to iso
-
King replace out- lean scum, but I can't converse with them to discuss their process, and see if there aren't villagery depths to their game.
Kill/'em, poof- good lean scum, seems like a cardboard cutout of Killjoy rather than Killjoy. I need more if I'm to reverse this lean.
Bear/Fruit- iso of both reveals vastly scummy behavior. He's caught.
--------------------
^For ease of post-death quotability. The color keeps breaking for some reason, so paint it yourself. Spacing shows the tiers.
This site's software has driven me absolutely beet red angry over the past several hours and I am utterly fed the hell up with it.
I get the feeling like when I iso Tau, he might end up above Colin as well. But I don't want to bias myself before I iso him.
@PizzaGuy you keep proclaiming that Dota's iso is incredibly townie. I made a large post disputing that claim with a focus on Dota's selective targeting and you don't address that point at all. Yes townies turn on wagon mates too. But they cast a wide net. Dota stays locked completely on Osie from hopping off till the lynch. While expressing doubts about torg and Jenna. Doesn't push or follow up, just suggests they can be scum and never wavers on lynching Osie for hopping on Shadow's wagon. Like you haven't shown any evidence of towniness outside of that one post, which I completely disagreed with and you brushed off ignoring my key point.
As for Bears posts I agree the talking about how Osie could be scum after declaring him more likely town isn't a great look, but I happen to know bear was town. Also you don't call to thunderdome a town read. Like you just call to lynch the other party in that case. You aren't calling for me and dota to thunderdome, you just want me dead. I don't know bears intentions but I'm pretty sure Osie wasn't a strong town read despite saying he was most likely to be town.
Not reading your Jenna Iso yet because it's late and I already agreed with your conclusion.
Lunch is extremely satisfying. But reading over my stuff, I don't think I made my point.
To clarify one of my above posts,
Quote from Grapefruit »
"Turning on another person on an RVS wagon while blocking off pushing others is scum 101".
This is something that might get overlooked. The argument was specifically that someone on the 5 wagon early turning against others on the 5 wagon is scum 101. It wasn't "someone accusing those on the wagon", it was "those on the wagon accusing those on the wagon", which is what he's saying specifically.
And it matters, A LOT.
It might help if you visualize it, because then it becomes very clear why that's wrong.
Person A
Person B
Person C
Person D
Person E
Persons A-E are all on a wagon, on person Shadowlancerx. For the sake of argument, the alignment of the voted person doesn't matter, and by odds, is a townie. But this can also happen if the person's a wolf.
Assume (bad assumption) that people on this wagon are likely to suspect others on the wagon, at an equal chance of that happening, whether they're town or scum. In my opinion, it's actually townies who will do that, because they're paranoid. But assume it's equal.
Okay. So, who is going to accuse this wagon of people A-E of being comprised of scumbags?
Person A
Person B
Person C
Person D
Person E
Since we know 2 of them are townies, and I know 1 more of them are townies, and I have good town reads on the other two, let's say I'm wrong and it's one person. Hell, let's also look at 2 people.
What are the odds the person accusing others on the wagon of being scum, are coming from a townie?
In the above example, it's 80 percent of the time, all things being equal.
Add another scum, for some reason, 2 scums are piling onto Shadow on page 1 and 2 of this game. Why you'd assume such a nutty thing, I don't know. But let's look.
Person A
Person B
Person C
Person D
Person E
What are the odds that this accusation is coming from a townie, assuming dumb math alone? 60 percent of the time, "others on this wagon are scum" is coming from a townie.
And what motive does a wolf team of 2+ have to accuse this sudden wagon that they dumbly jumped onto of being comprised of multiple lynchable people?
First, they have to vote together on an ill-advised wagon, then they have to point the finger at this wagon they're half responsible for and say it's full of scums.
Why would they do that?
WIFOM is the only reason, because every other reason is stupid.
I don't favor that theory. At most, it's one. One wolf.
So, it's "scum 101" that a person ON THE WAGON accusing others on the wagon of being a wolf, is a wolf.
Even though 80 percent of the time, by dummy math and not actual probability, it's a townie saying it.
That's literally worse than rand. By dummy math alone, it's a town indicator, not a scum indicator.
So Grapefruit is lying to your faces. There's literally no way he can believe that someone on the random voting stage wagon accusing others on the wagon is more likely than not, a wolf.
That can't make sense. I also know it's not 3 wolves, by my own role, and if it were, it would be terribly dumb for 3 wolves to all vote together and then suggest the wagon is full of wolves. How often do you see that happening?
In 300+ games over the past 10 years, I've never seen them do that, and neither have you.
So, "Scum 101" is bull. That's a townie tell, and he's phrasing it like it's a lock scum tell. You kill him for that, always.
______________________
But what about OFF of the wagon?
If the wagon is 5 townies, or 4 townies and a scum, how often will scums suggest the wagon is suspicious?
My bet is 90 percent of the time or more. Not dummy math, experience says so.
The wolf team accused the townies on the Shadow wagon.
One of them even said one of the townies on the Shadow wagon was a townie, and then proceeded to argue for an entire page that they're still a wolf.
That's howling. Where I come from, we kill anything that howls, and then wolves tend to die.
@PizzaGuy you keep proclaiming that Dota's iso is incredibly townie. I made a large post disputing that claim with a focus on Dota's selective targeting and you don't address that point at all. Yes townies turn on wagon mates too. But they cast a wide net. Dota stays locked completely on Osie from hopping off till the lynch. While expressing doubts about torg and Jenna. Doesn't push or follow up, just suggests they can be scum and never wavers on lynching Osie for hopping on Shadow's wagon. Like you haven't shown any evidence of towniness outside of that one post, which I completely disagreed with and you brushed off ignoring my key point.
As for Bears posts I agree the talking about how Osie could be scum after declaring him more likely town isn't a great look, but I happen to know bear was town. Also you don't call to thunderdome a town read. Like you just call to lynch the other party in that case. You aren't calling for me and dota to thunderdome, you just want me dead. I don't know bears intentions but I'm pretty sure Osie wasn't a strong town read despite saying he was most likely to be town.
Not reading your Jenna Iso yet because it's late and I already agreed with your conclusion.
At this point, since you locked your vote on Dota, we don't have anything to discuss.
Once you took options off the table and declared that you're only gonna vote one of my townies, our discussion was over. Now I'm talking to everyone else.
I don't trust myself to be able to nail Shadow's alignment by ISO.
I keep getting it backwards. I feel like, our instincts are the exact opposite of each other too often for me to put myself in his shoes and follow along and have it make sense to me.
I leave it up to others who know Shadow better than me to figure him out, and I'll work around that slot.
I will also suggest that in spaces where I am wrong, Shadow's the one who is going to see why, because he tends to view the game differently.
I don't think I'll be able to get to him in an iso today anyway. Last on my list is Tau, and I'm exhausted and I have about 10ish or so posts left this round before I have to cut myself off unless we get an extension. So it'll be important for me to have those posts to respond to stuff if need be.
I've largely said my piece, it's not a mystery where I am leaning now or why. I'll be one of the top posters in the game by end of round today, and that's with restrictions on myself. And the posts aren't fluffy, they're highly compact and full of about the same level of content others have posted up to this point in the game.
So between my own need to space out and not be sucked into the game, and for thread breathability, and tally-minding, it'd be helpful to me if Colin posted more, Killjoy said more, and we began to consolidate.
Dota and Tubba and anyone I've put as teal are off the table for me today. Certain folks, I'll allow it to go to a no lynch, I will not assist in them being lynched. I know that's "bad" but I'd rather have 1 townie die between now and tomorrow day phase instead of 2, when I'm this confident on the slot. Chances are they've got some power we need at night anyway.
I would lynch KillJoy if that's the only way to get a lynch today, or King Torg, if that's the only way. Otherwise I'm going to stubbornly push this candidate and hope that means others have to be flexible.
Grapefruit's response to Pizza is darn impressive. Like, I would be impressed if he was scum and just went toe to toe like that.
Pizza, the strength of your town read on Dota (not self pres voting by your own admission) is concerning. I kinda like Dota for town, but not even close to that much.
You seem easy to impress then. I'd advise you to read him more closely, but since you've already made up your mind, I'll have to do this without you.
I'm only easily impressed by some people. For instance, I know that Grapefruit both doesn't care to play as scum, and isn't overly successful at it. So when I see the effort come from him that indicates he actually believes what he says, it tells me that he's more likely to be town. That said, I probably need to go look at his previous scum games again for comparison, but I'm not overly sold on his lynch.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@The Thread since Pizza is cutting me off:
First off his math post doesn't actually make sense in the context of what I'm talking about. And assumes there is no outside motivation beyond pure math to turn on wagon mates. That ignores the fact that the game largely revolves around dissecting wagons and figuring out who is scum on them. So of course scum on a 5 man wagon is going to have to turn on someone on it even if it's not in their purely mathematical best interest. What makes it scum 101 is the selective focus, unwillingness to reevaluate, and the fact that D2 he floated the idea without committing to it that Shadow's wagon could have been all town. It's not a purely mathematical decision, but it's not as easy to dismiss as Wifom either. Scum on the wagon knows the wagon is going to be analyzed and I consider it a common play to get out in front of that and start shaping the narrative. It's the how Dota did it that made it scummy. Pizza's take using math assumes that it's a viable option to not try to analyze the wagon, which I'd argue is not viable at all.
Second and less importantly I only locked my vote in after Pizza locked Dota as town without explaining how is iso is sterling beyond that one post (126).
11- Questions Reaver about percieved overexplaination. Language on it feels weird. Does not straightforwardly ask "Why the overexplaination?" instead asking "Did you really feel that the longer post was a necessity!? (The punctuation on this is mostly what makes this weird. It brings a tone of incredulity when I would expect curiosity.) Hmm. Null with a slightly scum lean.
44- Nonsensical content-wise. NAI. Having fun. Also NAI.
45- Asking Shadow if he thought Voss's vote was RVS, and asking him to explain why Shadow thought he was hard to lynch regardless of alignment. Here's some of the curiosity I was expecting. Possibly trying to figure out Shadow's alignment. Light townlean.
52- "Strangest sentence" NAI. Anger at cockiness. Might be a personal thing. Could be getting mad at a scumbuddy for being cocky (but I'm leaning away from that). Null
57- Asks Jenna why the shadow vote had nothing else on it. I continue to get an incredulous tone over a curious one here. Again, not what I'm expecting. Slight scumlean for language.
102- Votes Osie for his reason on the shadow wagon. I tend to empathize with "my reason was terrible, people who are barning it might be scum." Leaning slight town for that.
121- Hmmm. He certainly believes he's misunderstood. So, the more I read this post, I'm having a hard time seeing the same thing that you are, Pizza. Like, your way is one way to interpret it. There are others.
He mentions the whole" my read was terrible why barn" thing again, but this time he caps it off with "he might point out that it was my reasoning that caused the mislynch" which is kinda self-conscious. Scumlean.
The next paragraph is explaining that his issue with shadow was semantics, which... is null.
The question to Voxx is a decent one. Townlean.
Answers Vaime's question decently and asks a decent question. Townlean.
Decentish questions to Osie. Slight townlean.
145- Answers me. It's fine, not really alignment indicative though.
Doesn't believe himself experienced Ok.
Adamant that his vote on the shadow wagon wasn't a bad one. I think I like the tone of this. Town.
259-ptap
265-Reads list: Townreading me at that time... (this becomes important later)
Uses some scum language (alarmbells).
Clarifies his position on Shadow.
Answers question about Jenna. Hmm, I think i like that he noticed that she voted shadow to L-2 here? townlean.
348, 350-NAI
354- Tries to figure out why scum targeted Vaimes. Not something town usually spends much time on but NAI because its not really definitive.
Asks Voxx why he claimed RB. Specifically mentions that he's claimed PR. I don't like how he outed Voxx as a potential PR in the thread here. Vanillas can recieve RB flavor too.
379- Has a townread on Voxx. Vaimes death cemented that read, and thinks maybe Shadow or I had a hand in it. First, he's buddying Voxx by saying that Vaim's death makes Voxx lock town. Second, he's sthrowing wine about who could have done it. (both of which are in his townreads). Scum.
381- Opinions on Shadow wagon. Logical, doesn't specifically attack anyone on it. Ehhh I guess slight townlean?
385,386- Convo with Jenna. NAI
389- Actively trying to decifer Jenna. Town.
402- Clarification from Jenna
417- "Can't read your posts" NAI
418- Reads list: Still townreading me
442- Lazy vote on KT. Scum, because after all the analysis and trying to decipher the game, Now he's just gonna vote without reasons? Like i'd said, this is lazy, and kinda feels defeatist in a way.
453- Explaination of Bear's ISO. I feel like he should be voting GF, given the language. But I guess not strictly necessary? Null
506- Conversation with scumread Grape. Decent questions etc. Townlean.
Here's where he's scumreading me all of a sudden. I've never voted him all game, now suddenly I'm scum? Because he found an interaction with Torg? He claims I didn't fact check his response... except I wasn't looking for that, I was looking for his mindset. I got that. That's what I was looking for.
And "Me asking Jenna to explain a vote could be me notifying a scumbuddy to expand on a read, his post to Torg and then lack of follow through looks exactly the same to me..." is just trying to paint me as scum.
Finally, he's saying that you're further town now... which feels like buddying.
Like, up till 442 he was kinda neutrally between town and scum with maybe a overall townlean (as I've shown). Then he lazyvoted Torg and made post 506 which is just... blah.
So, my read is nowhere near as certain as yours. I'm not sure where that certainty comes from, TBH.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Effective immediately, King Torg is replaced by Megiddo.
Due to the effects of multiple replacements, I am willing to extend D2 by up to 5 days, beginning with a 48 hour extension. Please PM me with your preferred extension (2 days, 3 days, 4 days, 5 days).
As hypocritical as it is for me to talk about disappointing behaviour, I am disappointed at the replacements going on but it's not like I can do anything about it. It's especially disappointing that I can't talk to Voxx and establish what on Earth was going on. I've got a few theories about the whole situation, but nothing that worth pursuing given the circumstances. Going on from that at this point I've only skim-read a lot of pizza's posts. There's a lot of content to go through there, which is nice but I'm struggling to get it all inside my head right now. My initial evaluation is why would a wolf that's subbed in to a slot that's in no great danger put in this level of an effort? From the content I have read fully and the volume there I'm feel this is someone that wants to get the game moving and actually finding some wolves. going from the initial read and on to something more substantial I'm going to stick this slot back in town and just ignore the roleblock shenanigans for now.
With there being just over a day until deadline, I need to look in to the people on the chopping board some more so I'm not going to worry too much about not going through every word from pizza.
@Pizza
I think you're pretty obviously agenda pushing, given how much you're focusing on persuading with theatrics rather than logic.
In particular I have no idea why you ISO'd Tubba(#502) and Jenna(#514) but not DoTA, your highest townread who has been aggro'd more than either. I would like you to make your case on town!DoTA similar to those posts.
The question I'm asking myself right now is "Is pizza trying to seize the lynch because he thinks town is wrong or is he scum covering for his buddy DoTA?"
I'm going to compile all my cases against DoTA together at some point this Day phase (yay extension) so you can respond to it, but I'm not remotely convinced by you pointing to a single post.
@Pizza
I think you're pretty obviously agenda pushing, given how much you're focusing on persuading with theatrics rather than logic.
In particular I have no idea why you ISO'd Tubba(#502) and Jenna(#514) but not DoTA, your highest townread who has been aggro'd more than either. I would like you to make your case on town!DoTA similar to those posts.
The question I'm asking myself right now is "Is pizza trying to seize the lynch because he thinks town is wrong or is he scum covering for his buddy DoTA?"
I'm going to compile all my cases against DoTA together at some point this Day phase (yay extension) so you can respond to it, but I'm not remotely convinced by you pointing to a single post.
I haven't read the game but we should lynch Pizza today.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
like just objectively I wonder why the Voxxicus -> Pizza slot is still around as that seems like the obvious N1 kill to me
What do you mean? Voxx said more or less the same thing himself at the start of day two, and made comments about being an early kill in day one. Is it the same thing as Vaimes? (i.e. being a known, experienced player, actively threatening scum)
@Pizza
I think you're pretty obviously agenda pushing, given how much you're focusing on persuading with theatrics rather than logic.
In particular I have no idea why you ISO'd Tubba(#502) and Jenna(#514) but not DoTA, your highest townread who has been aggro'd more than either. I would like you to make your case on town!DoTA similar to those posts.
The question I'm asking myself right now is "Is pizza trying to seize the lynch because he thinks town is wrong or is he scum covering for his buddy DoTA?"
I'm going to compile all my cases against DoTA together at some point this Day phase (yay extension) so you can respond to it, but I'm not remotely convinced by you pointing to a single post.
I haven't read the game but we should lynch Pizza today.
If you haven't read the game, why are you so ready to lynch Voxx/Pizza? Does something stand out to you?
I would lynch Torg/Meg, Dot and Voxx/Pizza
If we're not getting an extension we need everybody to get on and talk to a consensus. My suspicions of the Voxx slot have been mentioned, my thoughts on the Torg slot is a scum lean due to lurking for the most part, and Dot hasn't done much to change my opinions about him and Pizza whiteknighting for him makes me leery of the slot as well.
@Pizza
I've seen how effective your process can be from last game when you dragged town kicking and screaming to get its first lynch and start suspecting its second. So, I'll tip my tinfoil rakishly to the side, but there's too much going on with your slot for me to not put my vote there. Vote Pizza
Tubba: Why Pizza over... literally any other scummy person this game?
I've been having tinfoil issues with Voxx and with with the whole roleblocking shinanigans, but that paranoia is def not a good reason to lynch someone on D2.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Tubba: Why Pizza over... literally any other scummy person this game?
I've been having tinfoil issues with Voxx and with with the whole roleblocking shinanigans, but that paranoia is def not a good reason to lynch someone on D2.
Why are you tinfoiling with that claim and retraction? If anything I think I'm get town vibes from Pizza retracting it. Feels like scum replacing in would have stuck with a lie and tried to make it work. Imo there are reasons to be suspicious of Pizza but they center around the fact that both him and Voxx have been very protective of Dota. And I'd rather lynch Dota because he's actually been scummy.
Basically, it comes down to the lie. I can think of several reasons scumVoxx would lie about being roleblocked. I've mentioned them in an earlier post. I can't think of ANY good reason for townVoxx to lie. If your goal is to draw a nightkill, it's easier for town if you just focus on aggressively solving. It's unfortunate that we can't get Voxx's input, something i was looking for engagement on while he was around, and didn't get. Pizza coming in and not really addressing it is also suspect.
Pizza's defense of Dot is another problem. If Dot is town and Pizza is scum, by knighting for a likely lynch Pizza sets up to accrue more townie points.
If Dot is scum, scumPizza would know and shouldn't be defending the slot as strongly. (Unless the slot is continuing gambit behaviours and will have a last minute change of heart)
If Dot is scum, townPizza is reading him all wrong and that doesn't mesh with what I've seen of his play, albeit limited.
Answer me this, any other player gets outright caught lying to town, what should happen to them?
The thing was Pizza wasn't caught lying. He caught his own slot lying and reported it back to us. That's the key difference to me. It's about the context of the lie, and Pizza didn't know what it was so he owned up rather than running with it. Like if someone else had caught them in a lie that damning then I'd lynch him in a heartbeat. But since he said it himself I am giving the benefit of the doubt.
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Besides the overall differences and less-frozen-ness, I want to point at specific things that Tubba does which I think are town.
On page 1 of his ISO
Theory that there was at least 1 scum on the 5-wagon on Shadow is kind of a mathematical thing to assume.
As I'm reading the game, I think it's the least mathematically likely thing by random distribution of votes, the Shadow wagon was 5 townies voting a townie.
As an aside, I'll show why.
After this post, Jenna jumps on.
I happen to know Voxx is town, Vaimes and Osie both flipped town. Dota is such a vast townread that I won't self preserve in a tied scenario to make Dota die instead of me, I feel like that will just lead to us both dying. Jenna would then be the one scum who could be on that wagon.
Possible, and will consider. But the SAFE place to be would be off-wagon, especially if Shadow is town.
Then, people can claim that the shadow wagon must be dirty. And even townies will believe that. Mathematically, it seems likely.
But people don't behave according to even mathematical distribution. There's no reason why the scums should be voting Shadow there, as it will draw suspicion. They can still do it, but it's terrible in the long term. Only townies don't care about the long term. Townies and really bad scumbags who like to gamble. Look at where suspicion fell after the early 5 wagon on Shadow. Scums know that's gonna happen and steer clear. I think both Shadow and his wagon are clean, and that's where Tubba has gone wrong.
Not a bad assumption to make for a first time townie, but I have found based on experience that those kinds of assumptions seem correct on the surface but are not. Scums do not behave how the math says they should. I've seen them bundle all three of them on one wagon, opposed to a large wagon on a townie, just because that is unexpected. I've seen them all vote off wagon. I've seen them all vote together on a wagon if they think they can get away with it. I've seen them evenly distribute. They tend to do that by late in the round, but in the early round? They're avoiding piling on wagons if they cannot defend their vote movement later, as it comes under scrutiny.
Town tends to chase its own tail when they wagon someone early and the wagon suddenly feels wrong. That's what happened here, imo.
So Tubba makes a natural and normal assumption (It's referred to as level 1, a straightforward kind of idea, as opposed to being fancy or thinking levels deep. And btw level 1 doesn't mean newb player or bad player, it just means the straightforward approach as opposed to the tricky approach in a WIFOM situation) which many people agree with. I disagree but I do not think he's scum for it, necessarily, although scums can make this theory.
As for his later vote on Osie, in my limited experience with Osie, the more he talks, the more you want to vote him. I don't even hold this one against Tubba either. I was grumpy with Osie's behavior on day one just skimming it, but not for alignment reasons.
Something else to note, Tubba's laying out why he suspects Osie and Dota, but it does not read as jumping on weak posts, or opportunism. It looks like legitimate suspicion. I'm reading into this, and it's only like a 70/30 lean, but I think it fits what Tubba should be doing here, as a generic newtownie.
Those are the new player tells, btw Tom. Not what happened last game.
I can see the difference. Whether I'm right about if those differences make him town remains to be seen, but this is my bet.
130, 131, 136
Tubba reacts to Osie and others pushing on him. This I feel is alignment indicative because it's wildly different from how he responded to pressure in Low Fantasy. First of all, I see words. That's different. Second, I see multiple posts, a line of reactions, as opposed to a single faked reaction. Next, he's singularly focused on what HE THINKS will bust open the game, which is the Shadow wagon.
I disagree on the utility of it, but his insistence on looking here and desire to move the conversation there is much more active, participatory, and attempted-solving than Low Fantasy.
There's a bit in 130 that's difficult to follow, but I think it pertains to the shadow wagon itself and who voted when and why, and looks at the unvote from Osie. Also looking to get input from people, like if he's wrong about one person on the shadow wagon, is it someone else.
I like that, because it looks like he's relying on what he knows is the greater experience of others, while still following his own gut on what he believes is a lead from the Shadow wagon. His process matches what it often should be here, and the process itself isn't bad, it just happens to look to me like he's planted his flag and begun drilling for oil in a place with no oil. It happens. It was an okay bet. It still could be right if Jenna is scum, which I don't have reason to think as of yet.
This bolded plus the narrative that follows feels like real attempts at hunting to me.
I don't subscribe to this theory, but it absolutely could be a new townie theory. I think what scums do has been colored a bit by Tubba's experience with Tom/Lngr/Lurker, where they were just outright level 1 openly scumming for the first several rounds.
With that experience under his belt, he might even think that's normally how scums behave and that we can catch them simply by watching them start and push random wagons together. That's meeting level 1 scumming with level 1 town solving. It usually doesn't work that way, in my experience, because it's too visible and even new townies can see the bad motives involved. But I can absolutely see how he might think this is normal and how to solve.
It's a place to start from. It's only when that theory proves wrong and easy for scums to avoid that it gets thrown out and replaced with level 2 scum theorizing, adding levels and subterfuge to what they're doing, and then townies decide what that subterfuge is.
In any case, Tubba believes in this process and he's driving discussion on it. And he's invested in it. Unlike this other stuff I see from scums where they distance from their own suspicions, or make it someone else's fault that they're under suspicion, this all looks like his theory, his work, his investment.
I find that to be townier than not. And it's not the exact opposite of his scum method, but strikingly different from Low Fantasy.
Even here, he's asking his suspect who else it could be on the Shadow wagon and why, if not Osie.
I believe if Osie had made a convincing case, Tubba would have moved to that person. I don't have proof, but that's what this post indicates is lurking behind the surface. There's an underlying solving process that I can understand, follow, and believe holds worth in Tubba's mind.
I don't agree with it or its conclusions, but that does not make him scum. In fact it's strikingly townie, so far.
The emphasis on the word after was originally there. This emphasis is based on specifically what Tubba is taking issue with. The emphasis shows he believes what he's saying is valid, and because he's invested in it, not to mention, it also shows that this is what was going on in his head at the time.
Again and again, I return to the same old "what was going on in your head at the time" because Scums Do Not Have The Same Things Going On In Their Head.
They cannot remember stuff they never actually thought. They can fake it, after the fact, if they're good, but they usually forget to fake-remember.
Townies remember what they were thinking and why, and can elaborate, and they do it without being prompted too much. It's natural, like revealing the layers of an onion. They were just there all along, they were not hastily assembled once you began cutting into the onion.
That's what I see on just page 1 of Tubba's iso.
That's a huge, marked difference from his behavior in Low Fantasy. Yeah, he could have specifically changed tactics and leveled up his game. But this would be a jump from a level 1 kind of deceptive behavior to a level 5 deception. With love, Tubba, I don't think you advanced that fast that rapidly. I believe you'll be able to fake this one day, just not today. Maybe next game, in fact, since I just laid out exactly how to fool me and what you need to fake.
I'm only continuing with this ISO as a formality.
Here's something else that's lacking: No passive aggression. Tubba is direct and means what he says, there's no subtext or innuendo. Example:
These are all direct and pointed and easy to understand statements of fact, from Tubba's POV.
There are no weasel words or psychological distancing from his own suspicions. He owns them, he pushes them. He paints a world and tried to get people subscribed to it.
I think a big part of why we lynched Osie yesterday is because there were townies pushing cases they believed on Osie, and scums took advantage. It's easy to mislynch when townies are doing the heavy lifting.
They pushed the Shadow wagon out of nowhere, then they began beating the shift out of the people who shifted to the Shadow wagon, pummeling themselves. All scums had to do on day one was take advantage. Meanwhile, I feel like actual suspicions landed on a scum as well, and everyone on that wagon is going to end up dead shortly, as I'm the last one. Makes it real simple to hide when there are no confirmed townies based on wagonomics.
Comment 153
This all looks like townie-on-townie violence. Osie and Tau are unable to communicate on a level that Tubba agrees with, and likewise, Tubba is just not getting where Osie and Tau are coming from. Each is nitpicking the other and swallowing each other into mutual tunnels.
I can follow how this happened normally. It didn't have to happen from scums pushing that narrative, it's just "villagers gonna village", chapter 297.
What we have here is a failure to communicate.
198 the confusion and mutual scumreads between Tau, Osie, and tubba reached such a fevered pitch that he's starting to believe he's found enough scums to call it a day one solve. Even Colin joins in, and from Tubba's POV, he must think he's found the whole team.
Fanciful thinking, but I like that optimism. We found a scum and rattled loose two more based on day one behavior in the last game I was in. Finding that last scum was a devil and a half, but there's no reason why villagers shouldn't be optimistic and trying to find the whole team on day one. It can happen, I've seen it happen, and only if you keep reaching for that gold at the end of the rainbow.
260
This list just looks like frustration boiling over, which is also townie. Jenna and Dota being mentioned here despite some positive feelings, is like a kill em all and let god sort them out approach. Which, after watching Tubba's progression up to this point, I can believe. He's been talking to a brick wall and being mutually suspected by Osie and Colin and has been struggling to understand Jenna and has just been impossible to mutually understand, between him and reaverb.
This list of five, might even all be wrong, and I don't think it even makes Tubba scum. I follow how he arrived here and it all looks natural to me.
I think he's 1 in 5 at best, and I don't even favor the odds of that being the case.
If the rest of his game was a bunch of process-free emotion-free commitment-free depth-free randomness, I'd think this leans list makes him scum.
I don't. The rest of his game carries him, despite these reads being so different from mine. You don't lynch tubba to win this game if you're town. Convincing him to abandon these suspects is another matter but it's got zilch to do with his alignment. And I still need to look into Jenna.
Alright. Despite the glowing iso, I feel compelled to point out that this can be what a scum should be doing here to steer discussion away from Scum!Bear.
That said, last game, a townie did just that and I tunneled them ad infinitum for it and never forgave them because it was "something the scums should be doing".
I won't make that same mistake again, I'll just say this CAN be a strategy to save Scum!bear.
The rest of his iso makes me discount that as the most likely possibility. I think he's got wrong reads and the wrong argument at the wrong place and time, despite being innocent.
That's why I focus on process and depth, not reads. You have to be able to determine that Tubba is a townie here if he is based on how he's playing and how he's thinking, not how he's voting or what specifically he's arguing for.
I have a phone call I have to make before 3pm my time about a job, I can't continue this but I'm laboring the point as it is.
Tubba is pure. His reads should change, in my view, but they're based on villaging.
I also predict sorrow when his suspicions on the Voxx/Pizza slot don't dissipate, but there's nothing I can do about that and these are my real feelings about his ISO. Give me a lynch and I'll give you scum blood to analyze. For every day I fail to lynch a scumbag, you may lynch me, Tubba. Not before.
This is proving very difficult to maintain. I need to walk away and try again tomorrow.
Was gonna look at Jenna next and I will do before end of round, but, if I do it today I'm gonna get sucked in and start monopolizing again.
I actually really like the first half of the tubba read (it's midnight I'm tired and had to stop) but I felt tubba was fairly obvious town to begin with. So I'm easy to convince there.
Grapefruit's response to Pizza is darn impressive. Like, I would be impressed if he was scum and just went toe to toe like that.
Pizza, the strength of your town read on Dota (not self pres voting by your own admission) is concerning. I kinda like Dota for town, but not even close to that much.
What mislynch chain was I trying to set up? I voted Osie, explained why I voted Osie, and stuck to that read.
There was more to my read on Torg in the post you mentioned than just the RVS post, I also brought up the unexplained unvote on Tau and the scum claim. As for my questions, Torg did answer them in 271. I wasn't around between then and the end of Day 1, so where was I supposed to have followed up? I feel like you're trying very hard to bend the facts to fit your narrative of me.
Sorry to see Voxx go, but excited to finally play a game with Pizza. I read most of the Final Fantasy game, glad you're still playing here
Stab in the dark at the scum team, Killjoy-Grapefruit-Torg. I have/had a townread on KJ but while going through the game now page by page with a Ctrl-F for Torg I came across this interaction:
Killjoy's response is not actually what I would expect from someone looking for scum, he doesn't fact check any of what Torg has said here (I didn't hop on an L-3 wagon, mine was the first vote...) and pushes him for more reads on other people. Need to do a more thorough read of KJ with this in mind.
Did a quick skim and found this: Emphasis mine. Me asking Jenna to explain a vote could be me notifying a scumbuddy to expand on a read, his post to Torg and then lack of follow through looks exactly the same to me...
Not sure if pocketing or Xyre 2.0 If I didn't already have such a strong townread of Voxx I'd seriously be considering the first, your entrance and subsequent reads are cementing that townread even further.
As for when you would have followed up with Torg I'd have expected you to follow up on it D2 rather than the open question to make a case for town Torg.
First point (red): Doesn't make a point. It's a fair assumption to make, given the context.
Osie's post proves that your point is less than accurate. In fact, there's really no way to think this vote isn't serious. Osie literally says it's a serious vote, and then in character, continues calling shadow a wolf. If it's not serious, then Osie shouldn't have been putting shadow at L-3 and then left their vote there when Jenna jumped on to make it L-2.
It might not have been based on suspicion, but something about "arrogance" which I won't go into here. But I don't put people close to being lynched and then walk away if I don't want them to be lynched.
It wasn't just LOLWAGONS, by any stretch of the imagination. It was a self-described "serious" vote.
Second point (orange): Scum 101, you say?
"Turning on another person on an RVS wagon while blocking off pushing others is scum 101".
I know you're not suggesting that only scums do this. I've seen townies do it more often than scums do it, in my experience, and in yours as well, I have to assume. I know you're not suggesting that it's mostly scums who do this. Mainly, because any wagon that forms this way would have to be made of mostly wolves for it to be mostly wolves suggesting that the wagon itself has wolves on it.
Otherwise, it's full of mostly villagers, and when the accusation is made that wolves are pushing that wagon, it's going to come from villagers, more often than not, because the wagon is... full of mostly villagers.
And a wagon full of mostly wolves wouldn't accuse the wagon of forming suddenly because a bunch of wolves jumped on it. That doesn't happen often in my experience.
So this "Scum 101" stuff here is factually not the case. It's going to be mostly townies accusing their own wagon of being scum-laden, because anything else would be insane.
More likely, is the scums OFF OF THE WAGON to claim a wagon full of townies is made of mostly scums. Wouldn't you concur with that assessment?
I mean, a large number of townies, in an awkward and attackable position. There, they are safely off of the wagon, spreading suspicion onto many townies at once.
That seems a lot more likely to me. Mainly because I've seen it happen so much, and because I know for a fact that wagon had at least 3 townies on it, and Dota's iso is exceedingly villagery.
Osie was pushed, and Dota was pushed for this Shadow wagon stuff. Not only that, but your own slot (owned by bear at the time) focused heavily on this.
First, they suggested that Dota was scum, and then they called Osie town, and then proceeded to talk almost exclusively about how Osie could be scum, and then called for an Osie/Dota thunderdome.
Allow me to highlight:
That's a lot of calling someone scum who your slot just said was likely town.
Calling for them to be pushed in a thunderdome and examining w/w teams with Osie is not something your slot should be doing if you think Osie is "likely town."
If anything is Scum 101, Grapefruit, it's calling someone likely townie while also feeding everyone reasons to lynch them and putting them as one of your top suspects.
So we are not lynching Dota before we lynch you, primarily, because when you flip scum, Dota is lock town.
And he's already the equivalent just by reading his posts.
And since you've stated outright you're not moving your vote, talking to you at all won't bear fruit. But maybe your lynch will.
You are the scummiest guy in this game by far, and I'm going to push you until you die.
You seem easy to impress then. I'd advise you to read him more closely, but since you've already made up your mind, I'll have to do this without you.
I'll die before that lynch happens. Grapefruit flips wolf and lock clears Dota.
Frankly, any villager who does such a thing would be un-bear-able. In my experience, it's mostly wolves who proclaim someone townie but then invent reasons why they're still a good lynch.
That's talking out of both sides of one's mouth. It's passive-aggressive. It's being superficially in favor of someone while also stabbing them in the back.
Anyone who does that in any game can get rekt. Sorry you have to hang for your predecessor's crimes, but the way you've played since you've replaced in seals the deal for me. There's no way you can believe what you've said to me, and I will not have dota die before you.
All I'm prepared to discuss now is other folks, since further converse on the matter is a waste of time, but my vote is not moving to those other persons.
I'd have liked more time to be able to question Torg. Of my scum leans, he's the weakest, but I also found very little that could be considered villager tells in his ISO.
In the past several games I've found scums but let one slip away. If there are scums outside of this trio, what are you thinking?
As of now, these are my leans:
Vaimes- dead town tracker
Osieorb18- dead town
-
Voxx/thepizzaguy
DoTArchon- never lynching DoTA
Tubba Fett- never lynching Tubba
Colin- iso looks fairly townie, no lock, would like more. Hopefully their vote pattern can get them up to lock, but we'll have to see.
-
(reaverb Tau)- fairly good town lean by skim, need to iso
(Shadowlancerx)- vaguely town, need to iso
(Jenna Tolaria)- near rand, need to iso
-
King replace out- lean scum, but I can't converse with them to discuss their process, and see if there aren't villagery depths to their game.
Kill/'em, poof- good lean scum, seems like a cardboard cutout of Killjoy rather than Killjoy. I need more if I'm to reverse this lean.
Bear/Fruit- iso of both reveals vastly scummy behavior. He's caught.
I'm hungry, tired, and I have a headache. For those of you who won't read it, I lean town on Jenna. More than Colin, but it's about equal. We'll have to see what Colin does when he starts moving again.
The actual work, I'll spoiler and put into my next several posts.
2nd post: Might be an alt of someone we know.
This is a strikingly unusual thought process, I think X is mafia but won't vote them until they have more votes. Especially this early in a given round or game. It's not perfect information/distancing, as Vaimes already flipped townie. So other processes that can be taking place here involve what?
Options seem to be in order of likelihood:
I really don't favor the last theory. I think it's more like a trap post, which is often townie but not always.
3rd post, votes Vaimes when asked to do so.
4th post:
Alright so the clarification is legitimate suspicion. Osie's posts are a bit hard to follow. Not trusting King Torg, which as I'm seeing today, has been followed up on with a vote. I also don't trust that slot. Colin got more substantive later, but his first post bears this reaction. Not sure what to make of bear's name being repeated. It's not a town read, but it's also not anything else.
5th post:
Ok, so this is a fabricated persona, in my opinion. This is little more than a conscious affectation.
That by itself is null, townies do it too.
Deconstructing the post into something meaningful and in plain, non-poofy language, reads something like...
"Dota's argument picking on Shadow's note that he's only been lynched once is cocky, and therefore he might be lynch worthy, is scummy.
Vote.
Fluff fluff fluff, after this vote I went back to re-read something, Shadow's previous response, and thought it was thoughtful, and came with... an absence of... nervousness?
Thinks Osie is being malevolent toward shadow, and thus is suspicious.
But wants to focus on Dota.
Several lines of nonsense for theatrical purposes."
So, if that's the underlying process, what does it mean?
Well, taken by itself, it reads like Jenna is suspicious of Dota because of the line about lynching shadow for being cocky.
I think that's reading too much into it, because I've seen plenty of townies vote people out of frustration, or to call bluffs, or in response to arrogance or cocksuredness. Whenever someone rubs you the wrong way, it's liable to get you voted. I think that's null.
Not everyone thinks that's null, and reads into it for scum motive. I've found you hit mostly townies when following up on that, but I've seen that process enough to think it can come from townies most of the time.
Ultimately though, it's a null indicator. It's too easy for scums to do as well.
6th post
The first paragraph is just bull. Null-aligned bull, but bull.
Next paragraph is just commentary, which is often not a great look. But it's not a strong indicator either way.
Next several lines seem to mean "I distrust this person, but I dont have evidence of their guilt yet". Declines to give additional reasons.
Finally, flat out doesn't answer Shadow's question and makes a point of saying so.
It's easy to miss questions, but most folks have the good courtesy to respond if they see them, and especially if they're responding to a prompt about it.
Osie and Voxx (I think) and several others became grumpy at how day 1 was unfolding, and there is some slight toxicity and anti-team mentality on display here.
Unfortunately, I usually encounter such from townies who are set on being stubborn and unhelpful as part of a super cool badass strategy they thought of which will make them seem larger than life. What a rebel, I play the game my own way.
Well, if someone chooses to play that way you can't stop them. You can only control your own vote and behavior and let the record stand.
Wasting time talking to someone who will be a brick wall, or unhelpful, if they're on your team, is a time sink. Better to just lynch the scums.
Not comparing Jenna to an inactive as a like-comparison, but for difficult-slot reasons, and contrasting the differences,
It's kind of like if there are no replacements and you think a totally inactive slot is town, but the host won't modkill them. I've played with that before. Basically, I treat it like the game randed with 2 less people and I have fewer lynches to work with. If someone chooses to win as scum by never posting, they're a coward and I won't play with them again. It's bad enough I have to play as town with 1 hand tied behind my back with a fellow townie not voting or helping me lynch scums or clearing themselves in any way, I'll still be game to try, but I won't want to play with them much either after that.
It's a tough choice but a conscious choice. That's how I deal with completely wasted slots. Give them a town read that you'd lynch only if everyone else left in the game is very strongly townread and they're POE.
For players that are playing, voting, and giving their opinions, limited though they may be, and uncooperative at times, I work around the slot. They're doing the minimum that is required. All you have to do is vote, and I can try to determine your alignment based off of that. It's not much, but it's something.
Here, to me, Jenna is playing in a way that suits them, and it is above the bare minimum, so I have to try to work with that slot, especially if I town read them.
I think this behavior often comes from townies but it's no lock, that's for sure.
Next part...
8th post:
What I'm getting from this is... the idea that there could be one scum on the wagon is fine, but suggesting there MUST be one scum on the wagon loses the game a lot of the time. But still suspicious of Dota.
Actually, a quite reasonable post. I rather like this one a lot.
So there is a thought process that is reasonable and experienced and is trying to converse despite the persona-mask-roleplay they're doing.
If they can't even stick to being stubborn and unhelpful and not answering questions, then deep down, they really want to help town win the game, I think.
Scums should be in more control of their own behavior. Here, Jenna slips out of the mask by mistake, it looks like, and becomes helpful and reasonable again, buried under layers of roleplay.
I'm going to give this post a solid town point. Villagers who want to win and are roleplaying can't help themselves but to break free of this confinement and make points they wish to make which are really reasonable and solid.
So under this persona, is a person who would more often than not be more helpful, talkative, and straightforward, and that's breaking through the affectation because it's in their nature.
A scum doesn't have such a conflicted nature. Their goals are clear and if they've chosen a path of being obstinate and unhelpful, they're committed to the strategy and will stick to their mask, as they have no real motive not to.
A lot of what we do in these games is determined by the nature of who we are. I'm compulsive, I can't not do a certain set of actions when I'm a townie. Whoever this person is, also has a nature, which is overriding their predetermined plan of action.
That conflict reveals something more important about the user behind Jenna: They are trying to win the game for town... a lot of the time.
I still can't call this a lock, as it's involved in layers of deception, and deception is often scummy. But this level of open deception more often is not.
So my impression of the slot is that they're a townie with an affectation playing in a chosen way, but their nature is not actually fully obstinate or unhelpful, and their nature is what is compelling them to go against their roleplay or within the confines of it to help town.
So, I'll be looking for confirmations or counterindicators in the next couple pages, and I won't cover every post.
The following posts seem to indicate frustration with the game state, which I shared just reading it and skimming through it. So I kinda believe it.
This post is a lie. It's at best playing up certain natural parts of your persona, but it's not the genuine article.
The struggle I'm seeing within your own posts between the affectation and your underlying persona is evidence of this lie.
You kinda feel like Tom or Lulz at this point, who I imagine would be playing like this. Doesn't really matter who it is, though. Could be ISO, could be someone from off-board. I call out lies when I see them, if it pertains to how I'm reading you anyway. Doesn't mean you're scum, just that I completely don't buy this line at all.
Willing to thunderdome Dota or Osie, which isn't good, imo. A scum should be arguing for this idea.
Looks like Voxx, Colin, and Jenna are in Jenna's town.
Killjoy and Shadowlancer are not trusted but not suspected.
Vaimes, A bear, reaverb, Tubba, and King Torg- reminder to look at these people later.
Dota and Osie are suspected.
A bear "aligns with you in thought and assignment". A note that bear is sheeping them? Dunno.
I follow how this list came about, even if I don't agree with it.
I think this post ends up being the answers that Osie was complaining were not forthcoming from the slot. So, they answered them, in their way.
Nothing for alignment here but this does match the psychological pattern I am getting from them before, which is that their cryptic-roleplaying-deliberatelyodd-unhelpfulness is a facade, and underneath that is someone who is motivated to play the game even in spite of these self-imposed restrictions and handicaps. Probably a very bored veteran who plays a lot with this group and wanted something different. Like Tom, who has been on several alts.
This reads exactly like Tom levels of approach to the game and a desire to see the game through to a good outcome.
I don't agree with his reads, and I can see how it can be scum. I just don't read it that way.
Decides to back away from Bear, if I'm reading this right, there's distrust forming here. Which I believe, and agree with.
Don't agree with Tubba being lynched. What claims?
Definitely don't agree with Dota.
Voxx- saying Vaimes trusted him. Maybe this is agreement with that.
reaverb- I also haven't slotted them, so I get the wait and see approach.
Grapefruit- I agree with suspicion here, obviously.
King- Wishing for remains to be seen, that's an excellent joke. Highly underrated. And I agree with the suspicion.
Shadowlancer- respected, sure. Town? Maybe. Leaning that way.
Jenna- self, and lean town to me.
Colin- I haven't locked them town either, just leaning that way.
Killjoy's posts are quite forgettable this game for some reason. I feel the same thing, if that's what you're saying.
I mean, you're arriving at a lot of similar positions to me, and I follow why.
I can't lock you town but that's what's indicated to me by this ISO.
I'm only now getting to the third page of this ISO. This was a challenge and a half.
I think s/he's reading Torg scum and Tubba townie here, which I concur with. And based on how theyre approaching Jenna, no less.
Later seems to be scum reading Colin.
Yes, I see the townpoints Tubba got here.
Voxx, same as before.
Shadow same as before.
Jenna, self.
Puts Killjoy too high, imo. Were you not suspecting them? I must have been misreading previous posts, or this is a contradiction.
Tau in the middle.
Grapefruit is being given some rope.
Still disagree on Dota.
I like the suspicion on Torg.
Not there on Colin. I liked his iso too much. Needs to be moved back up the queue.
Big long quotes. Not understanding the point of the votes retelling post. I'm getting a little frustrated reading this.
Understanding is happening but at a cost of a lot of wearing me out just reading it.
I feel like this post is significant.
I think they're saying something along the lines of he's not going to choose to vote his scum buddy. That's what I got.
Then waiting for anything at all to happen this game, people to vote and commit.
Then voting Torg, while quoting Killjoy hard unvoting, which I assume means you also suspect Killjoy here.
Torg and Killjoy are options, yes. I'm dead set on pushing grapefruit. We'll see about forced compromises down my suspect list later.
Final score: Probably a townie. Probably Tom. I have a headache and I'm starving.
Takin' a break.
Osieorb18- dead town
-
Voxx/thepizzaguy
DoTArchon- never lynching DoTA
Tubba Fett- never lynching Tubba
Jenna Tolaria- never locking this person town, but I see the process and that's almost always gonna be town here, even if it's who I think it is.
Colin- iso looks fairly townie, no lock, would like more. Hopefully their vote pattern can get them up to lock, but we'll have to see.
-
(reaverb Tau)- fairly good town lean by skim, need to iso
(Shadowlancerx)- vaguely town, need to iso
-
King replace out- lean scum, but I can't converse with them to discuss their process, and see if there aren't villagery depths to their game.
Kill/'em, poof- good lean scum, seems like a cardboard cutout of Killjoy rather than Killjoy. I need more if I'm to reverse this lean.
Bear/Fruit- iso of both reveals vastly scummy behavior. He's caught.
--------------------
^For ease of post-death quotability. The color keeps breaking for some reason, so paint it yourself. Spacing shows the tiers.
This site's software has driven me absolutely beet red angry over the past several hours and I am utterly fed the hell up with it.
I get the feeling like when I iso Tau, he might end up above Colin as well. But I don't want to bias myself before I iso him.
As for Bears posts I agree the talking about how Osie could be scum after declaring him more likely town isn't a great look, but I happen to know bear was town. Also you don't call to thunderdome a town read. Like you just call to lynch the other party in that case. You aren't calling for me and dota to thunderdome, you just want me dead. I don't know bears intentions but I'm pretty sure Osie wasn't a strong town read despite saying he was most likely to be town.
Not reading your Jenna Iso yet because it's late and I already agreed with your conclusion.
To clarify one of my above posts,
This is something that might get overlooked. The argument was specifically that someone on the 5 wagon early turning against others on the 5 wagon is scum 101. It wasn't "someone accusing those on the wagon", it was "those on the wagon accusing those on the wagon", which is what he's saying specifically.
And it matters, A LOT.
It might help if you visualize it, because then it becomes very clear why that's wrong.
Person A
Person B
Person C
Person D
Person E
Persons A-E are all on a wagon, on person Shadowlancerx. For the sake of argument, the alignment of the voted person doesn't matter, and by odds, is a townie. But this can also happen if the person's a wolf.
Assume (bad assumption) that people on this wagon are likely to suspect others on the wagon, at an equal chance of that happening, whether they're town or scum. In my opinion, it's actually townies who will do that, because they're paranoid. But assume it's equal.
Okay. So, who is going to accuse this wagon of people A-E of being comprised of scumbags?
Person A
Person B
Person C
Person D
Person E
Since we know 2 of them are townies, and I know 1 more of them are townies, and I have good town reads on the other two, let's say I'm wrong and it's one person. Hell, let's also look at 2 people.
What are the odds the person accusing others on the wagon of being scum, are coming from a townie?
In the above example, it's 80 percent of the time, all things being equal.
Add another scum, for some reason, 2 scums are piling onto Shadow on page 1 and 2 of this game. Why you'd assume such a nutty thing, I don't know. But let's look.
Person A
Person B
Person C
Person D
Person E
What are the odds that this accusation is coming from a townie, assuming dumb math alone? 60 percent of the time, "others on this wagon are scum" is coming from a townie.
And what motive does a wolf team of 2+ have to accuse this sudden wagon that they dumbly jumped onto of being comprised of multiple lynchable people?
First, they have to vote together on an ill-advised wagon, then they have to point the finger at this wagon they're half responsible for and say it's full of scums.
Why would they do that?
WIFOM is the only reason, because every other reason is stupid.
I don't favor that theory. At most, it's one. One wolf.
So, it's "scum 101" that a person ON THE WAGON accusing others on the wagon of being a wolf, is a wolf.
Even though 80 percent of the time, by dummy math and not actual probability, it's a townie saying it.
That's literally worse than rand. By dummy math alone, it's a town indicator, not a scum indicator.
So Grapefruit is lying to your faces. There's literally no way he can believe that someone on the random voting stage wagon accusing others on the wagon is more likely than not, a wolf.
That can't make sense. I also know it's not 3 wolves, by my own role, and if it were, it would be terribly dumb for 3 wolves to all vote together and then suggest the wagon is full of wolves. How often do you see that happening?
In 300+ games over the past 10 years, I've never seen them do that, and neither have you.
So, "Scum 101" is bull. That's a townie tell, and he's phrasing it like it's a lock scum tell. You kill him for that, always.
______________________
But what about OFF of the wagon?
If the wagon is 5 townies, or 4 townies and a scum, how often will scums suggest the wagon is suspicious?
My bet is 90 percent of the time or more. Not dummy math, experience says so.
The wolf team accused the townies on the Shadow wagon.
One of them even said one of the townies on the Shadow wagon was a townie, and then proceeded to argue for an entire page that they're still a wolf.
That's howling. Where I come from, we kill anything that howls, and then wolves tend to die.
If you want a wolf pelt, follow me.
At this point, since you locked your vote on Dota, we don't have anything to discuss.
Once you took options off the table and declared that you're only gonna vote one of my townies, our discussion was over. Now I'm talking to everyone else.
I keep getting it backwards. I feel like, our instincts are the exact opposite of each other too often for me to put myself in his shoes and follow along and have it make sense to me.
I leave it up to others who know Shadow better than me to figure him out, and I'll work around that slot.
I will also suggest that in spaces where I am wrong, Shadow's the one who is going to see why, because he tends to view the game differently.
I don't think I'll be able to get to him in an iso today anyway. Last on my list is Tau, and I'm exhausted and I have about 10ish or so posts left this round before I have to cut myself off unless we get an extension. So it'll be important for me to have those posts to respond to stuff if need be.
I've largely said my piece, it's not a mystery where I am leaning now or why. I'll be one of the top posters in the game by end of round today, and that's with restrictions on myself. And the posts aren't fluffy, they're highly compact and full of about the same level of content others have posted up to this point in the game.
So between my own need to space out and not be sucked into the game, and for thread breathability, and tally-minding, it'd be helpful to me if Colin posted more, Killjoy said more, and we began to consolidate.
Dota and Tubba and anyone I've put as teal are off the table for me today. Certain folks, I'll allow it to go to a no lynch, I will not assist in them being lynched. I know that's "bad" but I'd rather have 1 townie die between now and tomorrow day phase instead of 2, when I'm this confident on the slot. Chances are they've got some power we need at night anyway.
I would lynch KillJoy if that's the only way to get a lynch today, or King Torg, if that's the only way. Otherwise I'm going to stubbornly push this candidate and hope that means others have to be flexible.
First off his math post doesn't actually make sense in the context of what I'm talking about. And assumes there is no outside motivation beyond pure math to turn on wagon mates. That ignores the fact that the game largely revolves around dissecting wagons and figuring out who is scum on them. So of course scum on a 5 man wagon is going to have to turn on someone on it even if it's not in their purely mathematical best interest. What makes it scum 101 is the selective focus, unwillingness to reevaluate, and the fact that D2 he floated the idea without committing to it that Shadow's wagon could have been all town. It's not a purely mathematical decision, but it's not as easy to dismiss as Wifom either. Scum on the wagon knows the wagon is going to be analyzed and I consider it a common play to get out in front of that and start shaping the narrative. It's the how Dota did it that made it scummy. Pizza's take using math assumes that it's a viable option to not try to analyze the wagon, which I'd argue is not viable at all.
Second and less importantly I only locked my vote in after Pizza locked Dota as town without explaining how is iso is sterling beyond that one post (126).
Nice short ISO.
9- RVS, NAI
11- Questions Reaver about percieved overexplaination. Language on it feels weird. Does not straightforwardly ask "Why the overexplaination?" instead asking "Did you really feel that the longer post was a necessity!? (The punctuation on this is mostly what makes this weird. It brings a tone of incredulity when I would expect curiosity.) Hmm. Null with a slightly scum lean.
44- Nonsensical content-wise. NAI. Having fun. Also NAI.
45- Asking Shadow if he thought Voss's vote was RVS, and asking him to explain why Shadow thought he was hard to lynch regardless of alignment. Here's some of the curiosity I was expecting. Possibly trying to figure out Shadow's alignment. Light townlean.
52- "Strangest sentence" NAI. Anger at cockiness. Might be a personal thing. Could be getting mad at a scumbuddy for being cocky (but I'm leaning away from that). Null
57- Asks Jenna why the shadow vote had nothing else on it. I continue to get an incredulous tone over a curious one here. Again, not what I'm expecting. Slight scumlean for language.
102- Votes Osie for his reason on the shadow wagon. I tend to empathize with "my reason was terrible, people who are barning it might be scum." Leaning slight town for that.
121- Hmmm. He certainly believes he's misunderstood. So, the more I read this post, I'm having a hard time seeing the same thing that you are, Pizza. Like, your way is one way to interpret it. There are others.
He mentions the whole" my read was terrible why barn" thing again, but this time he caps it off with "he might point out that it was my reasoning that caused the mislynch" which is kinda self-conscious. Scumlean.
The next paragraph is explaining that his issue with shadow was semantics, which... is null.
The question to Voxx is a decent one. Townlean.
Answers Vaime's question decently and asks a decent question. Townlean.
Decentish questions to Osie. Slight townlean.
145- Answers me. It's fine, not really alignment indicative though.
Doesn't believe himself experienced Ok.
Adamant that his vote on the shadow wagon wasn't a bad one. I think I like the tone of this. Town.
259-ptap
265-Reads list: Townreading me at that time... (this becomes important later)
Uses some scum language (alarmbells).
Clarifies his position on Shadow.
Answers question about Jenna. Hmm, I think i like that he noticed that she voted shadow to L-2 here? townlean.
348, 350-NAI
354- Tries to figure out why scum targeted Vaimes. Not something town usually spends much time on but NAI because its not really definitive.
Asks Voxx why he claimed RB. Specifically mentions that he's claimed PR. I don't like how he outed Voxx as a potential PR in the thread here. Vanillas can recieve RB flavor too.
379- Has a townread on Voxx. Vaimes death cemented that read, and thinks maybe Shadow or I had a hand in it. First, he's buddying Voxx by saying that Vaim's death makes Voxx lock town. Second, he's sthrowing wine about who could have done it. (both of which are in his townreads). Scum.
381- Opinions on Shadow wagon. Logical, doesn't specifically attack anyone on it. Ehhh I guess slight townlean?
385,386- Convo with Jenna. NAI
389- Actively trying to decifer Jenna. Town.
402- Clarification from Jenna
417- "Can't read your posts" NAI
418- Reads list: Still townreading me
442- Lazy vote on KT. Scum, because after all the analysis and trying to decipher the game, Now he's just gonna vote without reasons? Like i'd said, this is lazy, and kinda feels defeatist in a way.
453- Explaination of Bear's ISO. I feel like he should be voting GF, given the language. But I guess not strictly necessary? Null
506- Conversation with scumread Grape. Decent questions etc. Townlean.
Here's where he's scumreading me all of a sudden. I've never voted him all game, now suddenly I'm scum? Because he found an interaction with Torg? He claims I didn't fact check his response... except I wasn't looking for that, I was looking for his mindset. I got that. That's what I was looking for.
And "Me asking Jenna to explain a vote could be me notifying a scumbuddy to expand on a read, his post to Torg and then lack of follow through looks exactly the same to me..." is just trying to paint me as scum.
Finally, he's saying that you're further town now... which feels like buddying.
Like, up till 442 he was kinda neutrally between town and scum with maybe a overall townlean (as I've shown). Then he lazyvoted Torg and made post 506 which is just... blah.
So, my read is nowhere near as certain as yours. I'm not sure where that certainty comes from, TBH.
Pizza How do you feel about 506?
Due to the effects of multiple replacements, I am willing to extend D2 by up to 5 days, beginning with a 48 hour extension. Please PM me with your preferred extension (2 days, 3 days, 4 days, 5 days).
A vote count will be posted momentarily.
Day 2 deadline is now 11:59 PM Eastern on 31 October.
With there being just over a day until deadline, I need to look in to the people on the chopping board some more so I'm not going to worry too much about not going through every word from pizza.
DoTArchon - 2 (Grapefruit21, Reaverb Tau)
Megiddo - 2 (DoTArchon, Jenna Tolaria)
Grapefruit21 - 1 (Askthepizzaguy)
Tubba Fett - 1 (Colin)
Not Voting - 4 (Tubba Fett, Megiddo, Killjoy, shadowlancerx)
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 2 ends at 11:59 PM Eastern on 31 October.
Vote Count 1.8, Vote Count 1.9, Vote Count 1.10, Vote Count 1.11, Vote Count 1.12, Vote Count 1.13, Vote Count 1.Final
Day 2: Vote Count 2.1, Vote Count 2.2, Vote Count 2.3
>2 votes
lolz
I think you're pretty obviously agenda pushing, given how much you're focusing on persuading with theatrics rather than logic.
In particular I have no idea why you ISO'd Tubba(#502) and Jenna(#514) but not DoTA, your highest townread who has been aggro'd more than either. I would like you to make your case on town!DoTA similar to those posts.
The question I'm asking myself right now is "Is pizza trying to seize the lynch because he thinks town is wrong or is he scum covering for his buddy DoTA?"
I'm going to compile all my cases against DoTA together at some point this Day phase (yay extension) so you can respond to it, but I'm not remotely convinced by you pointing to a single post.
Vaimes died night one from either dumb luck, being a known experienced player, or because he was actively a threat to scum.
What do you mean? Voxx said more or less the same thing himself at the start of day two, and made comments about being an early kill in day one. Is it the same thing as Vaimes? (i.e. being a known, experienced player, actively threatening scum)
If you haven't read the game, why are you so ready to lynch Voxx/Pizza? Does something stand out to you?
Or deus ex machina.
Vote: King Torg
Vote: Magiddo
How ever.
If we're not getting an extension we need everybody to get on and talk to a consensus. My suspicions of the Voxx slot have been mentioned, my thoughts on the Torg slot is a scum lean due to lurking for the most part, and Dot hasn't done much to change my opinions about him and Pizza whiteknighting for him makes me leery of the slot as well.
Let's get some dialog going here guys.
I've seen how effective your process can be from last game when you dragged town kicking and screaming to get its first lynch and start suspecting its second. So, I'll tip my tinfoil rakishly to the side, but there's too much going on with your slot for me to not put my vote there.
Vote Pizza
DotArchon has been prodded.
You may continue posting.
I'm much more confident in my read on Dota than I am on Megs. But I did feel like he and Torg were starting to bus each other.
I've been having tinfoil issues with Voxx and with with the whole roleblocking shinanigans, but that paranoia is def not a good reason to lynch someone on D2.
Why are you tinfoiling with that claim and retraction? If anything I think I'm get town vibes from Pizza retracting it. Feels like scum replacing in would have stuck with a lie and tried to make it work. Imo there are reasons to be suspicious of Pizza but they center around the fact that both him and Voxx have been very protective of Dota. And I'd rather lynch Dota because he's actually been scummy.
Tubba
Colin
Jenna
Voxx/Pizza (when ignoring ties to Dota)
Tau (Finally read some of his posts! I like his push on KJ a lot, but the backing off felt ehhh)
Shadow
KJ
Megs
Dota
Scum
Pizza's defense of Dot is another problem. If Dot is town and Pizza is scum, by knighting for a likely lynch Pizza sets up to accrue more townie points.
If Dot is scum, scumPizza would know and shouldn't be defending the slot as strongly. (Unless the slot is continuing gambit behaviours and will have a last minute change of heart)
If Dot is scum, townPizza is reading him all wrong and that doesn't mesh with what I've seen of his play, albeit limited.
Answer me this, any other player gets outright caught lying to town, what should happen to them?