Yeah... this reasoning+tinfoiling isn't enough reasoning to hop on the most prominant wagon 1.5 days from deadline.
Is there more to dota, or no? Also why Bear? Why is Bear more scum than Tubba?
What do you mean "Is there more to Dota?" Like, "Do I have further reasoning?" I feel there's not enough content, and the later posts don't look great. Also, he's 1 of 3 in a certain tinfoil world, and the only one for whom I feel that I both learn something from their alignment and that it doesn't immensely hurt us if he does flip town, given his relative lack of activity as of late.
A Bear is me jumping down a rabbit hole at the moment, on an guess in part that a bunch of my earlier reads were overthought. I'm probably being overly paranoid, but something felt off, and I want to figure out what exactly that something is.
Yea I mean is there more to your reasoning on DotA than what you've said there.
My issue is that the best lynch right now is a tinfoil. Nothing substancial as far as reasons go. Or at least not THAT substancial.
Like, you should have SOME sort of scumread right now.
Can you clarify what you mean by Osie lynch > Everything but Dota > No lynch?
Like... you're saying you'd literally lynch everyone else in the game over Dota, but don't want to no lynch? I'm not really tracking, especially given you don't have a town read on him.
Uhhh let me try this again.
I want to lynch Osie. He is my top scumread by a bit. If I was in a situation that I had to lynch Osie or someone else, and thought that Osie was still a viable lynch... I'd still push for it for as long as I could.
Barring that though, no lynching is much worse than lynching a potential town DoTA. At least DoTA gives us info, and as I said earlier he hasn't really been town, and is a better lynch than other potentially viable options (like maybe Shadow, or Jenna).
KJ, have you read or played any games that Osie is in? Also deadline is over 50 hours away, we still have some time.
We've been in one game together. He was town, and I scumread him all game, until Az got me to back off.I can't reemmber the name of the game. I think it was his first game?
Why?
@Shadow: top 3 lynches are Osie, DoTA... and if I have to pick a third, maybe reaver, athough I feel much less good about that.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Just to preempt things, I am aware of what was just posted and it's being handled. Players other than Osieorb18 may continue posting until action is taken. Please do not discuss this in thread.
Osieorb18 is warned to not violate rules #2 and #6. Further violations of rule #6 will result in modkills.
Players are reminded that public discussion related to Osieorb18's posts (#251 and #253) is a violation of rule #2. If you have a concern, please bring it to me directly or to a member of the Mafia Council.
You know what? I'm just going to say I'm like 90% sure that Shadow is town, and if he's not then I believe I should be able to figure it out later. Otherwise, I'm roughly okay with Voxx's lunch pool, minus myself of course.
Okay. Why? To the Shadow read. 90% is pretty strong conviction.
I think Shadow's having fun, posting honest posts, and really solving without manipulating people. I guess I have difficulty imagining him passing up the opportunity to mess with people in this game as scum, too.
@KJ: That was Revolution Mafia, and I ask because I've found myself scum reading him in basically every game for the same things, and it means that reading him is now more difficult and a matter of sifting through to find true motive.
I would lynch Osie, Reverb, Colin, Jenna and Dot.
I've mentioned my conspiracy theory regarding my top three. Jenna makes the list because while I feel like I'm on the verge of understanding what's been said, I don't feel like working that hard to figure it out. Dot is on the list despite a feeling that he's town, he's not around, he's got some scum stain, and I don't want a no-lynch.
A Bear mentioned he was scumread by everybody but got few votes #187 (although they later voted him in a place that would be a pretty hard bus unless Osie is also scum, albeit at the same time that they literally said they thought DotA's scumteam was abandoning him. #209)
Both Vaimes #200 and Voxx #222 have called him an easy lynch, which seems like something you should pull out earlier in the Day if it's actually true, or a reason to ask him questions etc.
I think all of those look worse if DoTA is scum, and better if DoTA is Town.
In my experience a "reads-post" would be more indicative of scum. It gives more room for maneuverability and it's lazier. The post felt really good to me. When I read it I felt comfortable, like it's a natural post rather than a constructed one. As I've said earlier I'm an emotional player, so that's going to skew things which can be read multiple ways at times. Either way, I think the post is a good measuring stick showing Killjoy's thought process which can be used to compare future posts and interactions.
Could you give an example of something you think Killjoy has committed to? Give an example of something Killjoy could post that you would call a walk-back. Because right now he hasn't committed to any reads except Voxx being Town, which was justified with false premises anyway.
When players given reads posts, it's extremely clear whenever they change their reads, so other players can ask for justification. When players give impressions on specific posts, it's much harder to prove inconsistencies.
I agree reads posts which are just lists are easier to manipulate then giving reasons without ranking players. I like reads posts like yours where every read has some justification.
I'm considering voting you for these last two posts, but its so close to deadline I feel like there is a better lynch in Osie today.
.....
Yeah... this reasoning+tinfoiling isn't enough reasoning to hop on the most prominant wagon 1.5 days from deadline.
Is there more to dota, or no? Also why Bear? Why is Bear more scum than Tubba?
Why do you think Osie needs good reasons to consolidate given that you have just stated you are not voting me because of the need to consolidate?
Why does KJ possibly being "wrong" about the meta read on me make him scum? Talk about where the read comes from in terms of motivation - you think the premise is correct, even, just that it doesn't make me town this game, right? I guess I'm just not really getting from point A to point B in your logic in the read.
The read being wrong is irrelevant/nulltell. My KJ read would be exactly the same as "Besides the necroquoting Killjoy has done little besides ask/respond to questions and give a read on Voxx."
I wanted to see his response to being told his premises are incorrect. He kept the read the same but stated his experiences with you have been different. I'm not going to dredge through old games to find out if that statement is justified, but if it is I think his read evolution there is a nulltell.
Okay, busy working through everyones ISO's from lowest post count upwards:
Killjoy: Townreading KJ, his posts read like he's invested in solving the game. @Killjoy:In answer to your questions earlier
I might not have been clear. I was referring to 52->shadow being about semantics. You say he's cocky. Why does that mean anything?
Shadow being cocky doesn't necessarily mean anything, I was just engaging with him regarding his post to see how he would react. I didn't expect the reaction I got from the rest of the players(except Osie who barned and voted)
Also, in rereading the above quote, and your ISO, I have another question for you: Can you explain the mindset about #57? What were you thinking when you posted it, what you were looking for in an answer, etc.
Jenna's first post of the game was a naked vote on Shadow, and it put him at L-2. And it came straight after Silver had posted a vote count. I wanted to know if Jenna was scumreading Shadow or just jumping on the wagon, and why.
A Bear: Null. Not a lot of posts, the few that there are though contain a lot of talk about older games, a lot of meta on Vaimes/Voxx and suspicions based on votals but very little solid evidence. Nothing looks suspect though to make me think scum.
King Torg: Scum. Voted Tau for the over-explanatory post but then unvoted without saying anything. Lolclaimed scum for some reason. Not sure what "a professional mafia player" is and how I gave them the impression I was one. @King Torg: 1)Why the unvote? 2)In the same post that you say Osie is getting progressively townier you call him scum "for lack of stronger reads right now". Why arent you voting for Osie then?
Colin: Townread. No alarm bells, thought process easy to follow.
Jenna: No clue. I can't read these posts. Some kinda make sense while others just leave me scratching my head. I will admit to getting OTGIII flashbacks, but that's more of a personal issue than anything necessarily game related.
Tubba Fett: I can't really put my finger on any specific thing but I don't like Tubba's ISO. Light scumread for now.
@KJ: That was Revolution Mafia, and I ask because I've found myself scum reading him in basically every game for the same things, and it means that reading him is now more difficult and a matter of sifting through to find true motive.
Riiiiight. I need to reread that game to see why I was scumreading him that game.
Why do you think Osie needs good reasons to consolidate given that you have just stated you are not voting me because of the need to consolidate?
That's not even close to what I said. I said that Osie should, by this time, be solidly scumreading someone (at least a little bit) for reasons more substancial than "tinfoil". Maybe 'solidly scumrading' is the wrong choice of words. His best lynch choices right now (DoTA and Bear) are for the reason of "tinfoil". IDK how often you hear that word, reaver... but when I think of tinfoiling, I think that one of my townreads is somehow scum that I missed.
To reiterate, the BEST reason to lynch someone is because he's tinfoiling that they're scum. And, IIRC... one of them (Bear) he's actually never mentioned before. I'm going to do a reread of him to check and see if I can make a case for how I feel about him now, but still. He should have at least some kind of scumread on someone for reasons.
Also, part of your argument in posts to others seems to be that you want a reads list from me. Why haven't you just asked me for it?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
-------------
Voxx: I've given reasons for this, and his later posts have held true to it. He's trying to solve the game, Voxx style.
Colin: hasn't posted much, but I like where his head is at. He's critically thinking. Potentially a little biased because a lot of that has gone into thinking I'm town and defending me.
Bear: Similar to Colin, Critically thinking, but less so.
Vaimes: This is MOSTLY sheeping Voxx. He seems pretty sure that Vaimes is town, and I've had a bunch of trouble reading Vaimes. So I'm trusting Voxx on this for now.
Shadow: His early posts were giving me town vibes, like I said... plus the speed of the early wagon on him makes me think it was probably a wagon on town. That said, Vaimes did make a good point that shadow asking who on his wagon is scum and not doing the work is weird. Also he doesn't want to lynch either of the major wagons, which is also weird.
Tubba/King Torg/Jenna: None of these have really made a large impression on me.
REaver: I don't fully understand where he's coming from. Like, he thinks I'm scum for not posting a reads list, but never asks me for one. Also his 214 feels off.
DotA: Been over this. Not really scum but specifically doesn't really feel town, which I don't like.
Osie: I plan later today to make a post on this. Suffice it to say his mindset feels scummy to me.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Notes:
If your vote is uncounted and I didn't say why, please PM me or DM me on discord so I can investigate.
shadowlancerx is V/LA until further notice.
Not sure what "a professional mafia player" is and how I gave them the impression I was one.
Well, a professional mafia player is (I assume) someone who plays mafia for money. That said, what I meant was "experienced mafia player." My bad.
And as I said before, I honestly don't know why.
In the same post that you say Osie is getting progressively townier you call him scum "for lack of stronger reads right now". Why arent you voting for Osie then?
Just because Osi is getting progressively townier doesn't mean he's not scum, it just means that at a later date I might read him as town. If I had to pick a scum team right now, Osi would be a part of it. However, you are also part of it, so I'm voting for you.
I'll try to post more in the morning when my body is (hopefully!) not actively trying to kill me.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"When I'm sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story"
-Barney Stinson
For the record, I'm a little bit disappointed in the effort and engagement as a whole this game. I know I was V/LA for a while and dealing with some RL *****, but the deadline is in 24 hours, and there's very few people that...seem to care about it. We have under 300 posts on day one.
It's really hard to get accurate town reads on people when scum can blend in with town apathy and not have to pretend to care, not have to pretend to work and solve, not have to pretend to drive the game forward.
Like.
Part of me kind of thinks Osie and Dota might be V/V, and wolves are just content with the gamestate and letting that deadline clock tick.
My previous vote on Beru could have easily gone on Reaverb instead. I'm calling those two out specifically as people I have trouble seeing acting the way they're acting as villagers this game. Where's the spark? Where's the inquisitiveness, the drive?
You both feel so damn wooden, like you're going through the motions with token posts.
There's 24 hours left in the day, let's wake up, smell the coffee, and act alive.
I won't be available to do anything big until after 4 PST tomorrow. I'm planning a post about Osie but I guess we will see. If we end up lynching DotA then I'll do it over night but I really wanna try.
Talk to me about Bear, Voxx. What tells you he doesn't care about the town winning?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Beru is someone I know relatively well from...a lot of places.
It can be like pulling teeth sometimes to get Beru to talk about why they think what they think, but it rarely is difficult to get them to talk about what they think.
Like... I'm not looking for the Beru that 700 posted the DLP WH and spams the thread. I know circumstances aren't allowing for that.
But I'm not seeing any signs of the Beru that has strong feelings about things, and talks about them and pursues them. The Beru that's had good reads in spec chats, and is obnoxious about sharing them. Over and over and over.
There's just something missing. It's not activity, though I do think town!Beru in a game with myself and Vaimes is a little more active than she has been.
It's a little bit investement/engagement, a little bit a lack of 'smug', a little bit a lack of conviction, a little bit a lack of just...caring.
@Voxx
Regarding your feelings on Bear, I'm inclined to take your word for it, I've no previous experience with them so everything you say could be true and a perfectly valid reason to put vote pressure on them. However, I dont think you are going to be able to bring enough people on with what is essentially a meta read to make a lynch happen there. Talk to me about Osie, Tau, Dot and Colin. Does your meta offer you any insight on those players?
My previous vote on Beru could have easily gone on Reaverb instead. I'm calling those two out specifically as people I have trouble seeing acting the way they're acting as villagers this game. Where's the spark? Where's the inquisitiveness, the drive?
Oh heck, this is exactly what I was seeing. It's good that someone else sees it.
IRL people keep inviting me to things because they haven’t realized I’ve started playing mafia again and I couldn’t even enjoy watching ******* Blade Runner because I want to have time to play the got damn game. I'll be around... today, though? It's 7 am, jesus. (By the way, my review is: Watch Psycho Pass instead. The first hour is just setup and it could have been a regular movie’s length. Twists are good, though, but unfortunately Psycho Pass already exists.)
Voxx, one of the main problems I'm having with this game is that I absolutely hate it when people aren't playing and yell at people for it all the time? And, like, now I can't really play because I can't use the forum on my phone, and I feel terrible about it. I can’t even yell at other people for not playing, because I can’t ******* post either. You should already know how I feel about this because my hate of it is a Known Beru Fact. I’d probably be posting more if Curse wasn’t trash, actually. Not, like, 700 posts, lol, but I’d actually be able to post when I’m not home which is usually when I have the time to - waiting for the bus, eating lunch, on break, whatever. Being smothered by my inability to actually play the game is making me feel p ambivalent about the entire forum, and I probably won’t play here after this. Trying to get over it, trying not to post about it, it’s affecting my gameplay so I guess I DO have to acknowledge it, I hate everything, etc. (Also, I feel like when I do make posts, very few people actually want to talk to me? It’s like people are sliding right past what posts I do get to make. Not sure if this is just me, though.)
Posts I write from notes are going to “feel pre-constructed”, to borrow Newcomb’s words on this, because I’m taking the notes I’ve already made and turning them into bigposts. I’m always going to edit what I’m saying because I’m writing things down when I think about them and then make it into something resembling a coherent post when I’m actually at my lappy. I’m not a stream of consciousness player.
Probably don't want to lynch outside of Dota and Osie today, mostly because I feel like if we don’t do it now, it’ll end up being terrible later? Also, I don’t feel like we have enough time to do anything else. The fact that nothing related to anything is really happening tbh is giving me insight into those people who are always like “wah d1 is useless”. I want something actually concrete in this game because actual flips and night actions feel like they'll help more since there’s very few posts to go off of. Was hoping that at least one person would have a reaction to me saying that I want Dota and Osie to seriously fight each other, but it feels like very few people actually care about what’s happened since the initial wagon on Shadow? I really wish they had actually engaged with each other seriously, because that could have actually been useful. If both of them are mafia, maybe we could've seen that they don’t really want to kill the other person or that they have tmi that they're both mafia and lynch both of them, and if only one of them is mafia, that person could have been forced to push something that they might not necessarily be interested in getting their hands dirty with? Probably not enough time left, but when I posted it, like, two days ago, there definitely was…
@Osie
Ok, but I still want to hear from Voxx and hear what Bear has to say. Like, if I understand, you're both voting Bear because their behaviour doesn't sync up with previous games? Explain how relevant/reliable meta reads tend to be.
@Bear: I've been locked out from signing in via mobile since yesterday, but I got around it by going to the actual twitch website and signing in there, you might try that (I only mobile post so I know how you feel)
So...12 hours to deadline and we have 3 people all sitting at 3 votes. -_-
A Bear, Osie, Dota. With the activity in this game right now I don't have confidence in my ability to lead a different lynch, so one of those will have to do.
Osie: The "scummiest" of the three, but I just don't see him as a good day one lynch.
Dota: Lower activity, and I really don't know what to make of him.
A Bear: Notably being wagoned by Vaimes, Voxx, and Osie, which makes me o.O
The frustration I can completely understand too.
Ugh. Vote Reaverb
I need every person willing to lynch either Reaverb or Jenna to chime in and vote within a couple hours. More people have expressed willingness to lynch reverb that I remember so that's what I'm going to try for. If we can't make it then we'll pick one of the above.
I'm going into EoD mode, if you have an outstanding question I might defer it to Start of Day 2.
After Killjoy's last bit of activity I prefer to dedicate at least another Day phase to investigating him.
Vote: TubbaFett is the only person I'm OK with turbo-lynching.
I strongly prefer killing DoTA over Osie if it comes to that.
--------------------
shadowlynx and Voxx are both trying to doubt-cast me without giving any evidence whatsoever. If they actually have cases they should post them. (Voxx said I seemed dis-engaged which feels completely fake when I've started two wagons and felt for half the game I was being rate-limited more by the thread velocity than the time I had to post).
So...12 hours to deadline and we have 3 people all sitting at 3 votes. -_-
A Bear, Osie, Dota. With the activity in this game right now I don't have confidence in my ability to lead a different lynch, so one of those will have to do.
Osie: The "scummiest" of the three, but I just don't see him as a good day one lynch.
Dota: Lower activity, and I really don't know what to make of him.
A Bear: Notably being wagoned by Vaimes, Voxx, and Osie, which makes me o.O
The frustration I can completely understand too.
Ugh. Vote Reaverb
I need every person willing to lynch either Reaverb or Jenna to chime in and vote within a couple hours. More people have expressed willingness to lynch reverb that I remember so that's what I'm going to try for. If we can't make it then we'll pick one of the above.
I agree with the majority of this. I'd be willing to lynch Jenna. I'm not sure about Tau. I'll do a quick ISO of him in a bit.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"When I'm sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story"
-Barney Stinson
@Voxx: I'm a little confused. Is there something he's specifically done that makes you think he doesn't care, or are you mostly extrapolating from his general lack of activity?
@Shadow: you see three people sitting at 3 votes 12 hours from deadline... So you vote off all three wagons? What's the deal there?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Osie
Ok, but I still want to hear from Voxx and hear what Bear has to say. Like, if I understand, you're both voting Bear because their behaviour doesn't sync up with previous games? Explain how relevant/reliable meta reads tend to be.
My issue is with their behavior in just this game. I've never seen their other games and meta reads are WIFOM at best.
Osie's quick on and off is possibly indicative of scum behaviour but that's not really a lot to go on. If Vaimes and Vox are scum together it seems ballsy to act so aligned. Jenna is very difficult to read because I flunked quantum interstitial physics.
@Osie
My Bear vote was just an RVS vote. I can't respond to ghost panda's infiltrating my kitchen, because I'm just not sure what you're asking/telling me. I'm pretty sure you're just flailing at this point. Vote:Osie
This progression isn't as bad with the 2nd post correctly inserted, but it's still weird.
The correct way to process evidence is Get Evidence -> Determine how that effects your reads -> Compile all the evidence-read-effect determinations into a reads list, lynch the person at the bottom.
However, TubbaFett instead focuses solely on Osie's contribution to the shadow wagon, then moving on to look at DoTA after being prompted (by DoTA's post on his shadow progression in the "..."
=============
Self-consciousness:
Just look over TubbaFett's ISO and you can see how much he's focused on me for starting the wagon on him:
I would lynch Osie, Reverb, Colin, Jenna and Dot.
I've mentioned my conspiracy theory regarding my top three. Jenna makes the list because while I feel like I'm on the verge of understanding what's been said, I don't feel like working that hard to figure it out. Dot is on the list despite a feeling that he's town, he's not around, he's got some scum stain, and I don't want a no-lynch.
Reaverb Tau;
I still have issues with the opening, but I've been over that in a previous post so I'm not going to push this point further at this stage.
The rest of the content has a town tone to it, and there's a few good points in his push on Tubba
Tubba Fett:
I don't like the asking about the expected number of mafia. It feels like a question a mafia would ask in an attempt at getting some town credit.
Going on from that, Tubba's posts are pretty much a guide to how not to post as mafia.
Or if anyone can make a convincing argument for Jenna being town... But I'm currently more bothered by her than by Tubba's myriad of scumtells. So make of that what you will.
1: Tau's push on me is incredibly flimsy, basically taking issue with my RVS vote and the timing of my Osie vote. Osie's behaviour on the Shadow wagon has been noted as scummy by more than just me, so I don't understand why the timing matters or is alignment indicative, unless it's more about protecting his buddy than finding actual scum. Look at #180, #183, and #184 just for starters.
2: Not liking the question is one thing, but turning it into a scum read with zero interaction with me is something else. That point combined with your statement that you don't think I'm posting like mafia is somewhat troubling. Essentially you're giving me credit for hiding my alignment, based on your assumption of my alignment from a fairly innocuous question?
3: This is a counterpoint to Colin's claim. How am I so blatantly scummy to Osie, but deceptively scummy to Colin? Actually, I don't think Osie has said why I'm scummy at all? I briefly skimmed her ISO, and short of calling me scum with the weakest of reasons in #129 and mentioning my actions as NAI in #190, Osie hasn't really made much of a case for having me as one of her top scum reads.
@Osie
I'm not trying to imply you or any other ghost based animal is bad at this game. If anything, I'm bad at this game. Your vote, followed by your unvote shortly after is the scummiest behaviour I've noticed. I've no interest in personally attacking anyone, or trying to put them down. Maybe we have a communication mixup here but I'm just trying to play a game. Stop with the cryptic ghost/Claritin/Niagra Falls/panda stuff and maybe we can figure this out.
@Tau
I don't know what to tell you. You're really hung up on my RVS vote, and I've gotta say, I don't get it. What percentage of random votes end up being serious? When it's a vote that matters, when I'm actually making a statement about how I feel the game is going, I prefer to have more information, to take more time. When it's a throwaway random vote, not so much.
@Tau
My bear vote was strictly RVS, there is nothing more to it.
There hadn't been a whole lot of serious content prior to my vote on Osie. The wagon on Shadow was the most significant thing happening at the time, and (imo) odds have at least one scum on that wagon. The scummiest behaviour on that wagon was Osie's. Dot's is a close second, but following along with his crummy reason to lynch Shadow seems worse. Once King and Voxx mention how bad it is, Osie is the first to jump. That's when I felt pretty good voting that slot, but the deadline was miles away so it seemed fine to wait and see what else happened.
Your read on my sequence is wrong. My Osie vote was never RVS, but a vote on the slot that seemed the most scummy to me.
What do you think about Dot/Osie's play on the Shadow wagon? Was there scum on the wagon, if so, who?
@Jenna
Yes, you did. I see it now. I don't understand it, but I see it.
@Tau
I waited to vote, because I like to wait to vote I guess. I like to think about where I'm putting my vote and why I want to put it there.
Osie's vote seemed scummier to me because it came after Dot brought up Shadow's arrogance. Osie was the first one off the wagon when people started to discuss it.
That's why I voted that slot.
Around a third of his posts have "@Tau" somewhere in there, to the exclusion of interaction with almost anybody else. Besides Osie, who also voted him, his only other question are 1-offs to Jenna and Voxx
@Voxx: I'm a little confused. Is there something he's specifically done that makes you think he doesn't care, or are you mostly extrapolating from his general lack of activity?
@Shadow: you see three people sitting at 3 votes 12 hours from deadline... So you vote off all three wagons? What's the deal there?
I covered it in my post; I'm lukewarm to all 3 Lynches. I'm planning to make one happen, but I'm testing other waters.
I assumed mtgs would have more placid Day ends given they have the longest non-joke Day phases I've ever seen, is scrambling in the last 12 hours still the usual here?
I decided to ignore TubbaFett for a few days because I was a bit concerned I was tunneling when my original argument turned out to have false premise but he didn't stop feeling like scum to me. I didn't think it was possible to get a lynch going with just 3 days to deadline.
Reaverb Tau;
I still have issues with the opening, but I've been over that in a previous post so I'm not going to push this point further at this stage.
The rest of the content has a town tone to it, and there's a few good points in his push on Tubba
Tubba Fett:
I don't like the asking about the expected number of mafia. It feels like a question a mafia would ask in an attempt at getting some town credit.
Going on from that, Tubba's posts are pretty much a guide to how not to post as mafia.
Or if anyone can make a convincing argument for Jenna being town... But I'm currently more bothered by her than by Tubba's myriad of scumtells. So make of that what you will.
1: Tau's push on me is incredibly flimsy, basically taking issue with my RVS vote and the timing of my Osie vote. Osie's behaviour on the Shadow wagon has been noted as scummy by more than just me, so I don't understand why the timing matters or is alignment indicative, unless it's more about protecting his buddy than finding actual scum. Look at #180, #183, and #184 just for starters.
2: Not liking the question is one thing, but turning it into a scum read with zero interaction with me is something else. That point combined with your statement that you don't think I'm posting like mafia is somewhat troubling. Essentially you're giving me credit for hiding my alignment, based on your assumption of my alignment from a fairly innocuous question?
3: This is a counterpoint to Colin's claim. How am I so blatantly scummy to Osie, but deceptively scummy to Colin? Actually, I don't think Osie has said why I'm scummy at all? I briefly skimmed her ISO, and short of calling me scum with the weakest of reasons in #129 and mentioning my actions as NAI in #190, Osie hasn't really made much of a case for having me as one of her top scum reads.
4: Did I just Day One solve this *****?
First, there's the self-conciousness again, as TubbaFett looks at a massive reads posts from Colin and picks out only the part relevant to himself.
Second, he's using a really bizarre reading of the phrase "guide to how not to post as mafia". This is a pretty common idiom meaning "a collections of mistakes which are commonly made when [in this case: posting as mafia]". TubbaFett twisting this around to "posts mafia do not make" manages to have all the triviality of being pedantic while still being technically wrong anyway.
@Shadow: I mean, ok. But my point is that we're probably not lynching reaver today, so pushing him right now is just... Not useful to our situation right now.
Hell, Bear is probably just as unlikely to get lynched today due to how late in the day Voxx proposed him (among other reasons).
If I were you, I'd figure out your feelings between DotA and Osie, and Lynch one of them.
Actually, same goes for you, Reaver. That vote on tubba is doing similarly nothing. I doubt you'll get enough votes to Lynch him before deadline.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
@Shadow
I'd vote Tau if things go that way. I don't trust his read on me as genuine and think he's deflecting for a buddy. That said I'd prefer Osie first.
I will be periodically checking in as the deadline approaches, as time permits but I'm having a late thanksgiving dinner. A no-lynch isn't great so let's go folks. I would vote Osie, Tau, Dot, or Jenna in that order for reasons I've already stated. I'm open to discussion regarding these votes up to deadline as time permits.
I'm willing to lynch Jenna, DoTA, Osi, and maybe Tubba if it comes to it. DoTA and Osi are my two main targets, and it looks like an Osi lynch is more supported so far so Vote: Osieorb18
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"When I'm sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story"
-Barney Stinson
1) I'm not what anyone would call an experienced player. I have only played in a couple of games on this site, and only two off site. If you want to meta-dive me I'd be glad to provide a list of links to the games I've played.
Talking about his own inexperience is scummy, because the main use case of establishing that fact about yourself is to excuse -EV Town behavior as noobiness. Notice he doesn't talk about what he's good at specifically or try to ask questions to players he considers more experienced.
(I know in context his experience is relevant for reasons unrelated to that but that could have been established with just the first sentence.)
He vanished for a very long time, showing little will to effect the gamestate.
His reads in #265 are bad in meta reasons because:
1) He promised more reads but has not yet delivered.
2) He choose to do them only near the Day end, when Town has less time to get off him or take his reads into account, which makes them more useful as an anti-lynch shield than an attempt to solve the game before possible death.
3) He has chosen to read players from least to greatest ISO, rather than a sensible ordering such as "starting with the players who are most likely to be lynched", which would indicate Town trying to use the lynch productively.
Judging the post in isolation, most of them are one-liners which don't show empirical evidence:
Example:
Killjoy: Townreading KJ, his posts read like he's invested in solving the game.
He doesn't give any reasons for why KJ's posts "read like he's invested". What would be the case this read wouldn't apply - if somebody was turbo-lurking or making posts tangential to the gamethread? I could see that read applying to around half the game. Also see his Colin and TubbaFett reads.
The few times he does mention empirical it tends to be information with analysis:
King Torg: Scum. Voted Tau for the over-explanatory post but then unvoted without saying anything. Lolclaimed scum for some reason. Not sure what "a professional mafia player" is and how I gave them the impression I was one.
This is a factual list of what King Torg has done. It doesn't explain why what King Torg has done is more likely to come from scum than Town.
I agree their behavior on the shadow wagon was scummy, assume you've drawn your own opinions.
First, unlike DoTA, Osie's reads have had explanations. I haven't normally agreed with them - I think #129 was nitpicky and overread into the little info available at the time - but it specifically called out posts in several places and described some fine-grained distinctions (for example, it calls Voxx "fake" vs. King Trog "posting to be a part of things". It describes shadow as "prodding" and TubbaFett/Jenna as "defensive", which are much easier reads to counter-argue, concur, or begin looking for in future posts.
Osie has been more active moving their vote around. They haven't tried to start a wagon themselves, but they have jumped on both TubbaFett and A Bear trying to make things happen. As opposed to DoTA, who has stayed locked on his counterwagon for over a week. While Osie is looking around for the best lynch, DoTA is content to sit on the most plausible alternative.
I like the way they handled Jenna (#220 is the conclusion of that particular interaction) - gathered a large amount of evidence on a specific behavior, asked Jenna questions on it, decided it was less strong than they original thought and reduced the read strength before moving on.
Vote A Bear
I think that Osie could be scum, but I don't think lynchig him today is the right call, and I'm not sold on Dota as scum. I'm gonna sheep Voxx on this one and hope.
I will hammer Osie or Dota to avoid a no lynch.
I suggest Bear/Osie/Dota either claim or plan to be around for a quick claim, because it's down to the wire.
I was out getting quarters for laundry, half a mile away from home. Just ask Silver, I mentioned it to him last time I went out to do that.
As for feeling opportunistic, no idea.
In fact...
I also just realized that its actually 2.5 days from deadline, not 1.5.
Yea I mean is there more to your reasoning on DotA than what you've said there.
My issue is that the best lynch right now is a tinfoil. Nothing substancial as far as reasons go. Or at least not THAT substancial.
Like, you should have SOME sort of scumread right now.
Uhhh let me try this again.
I want to lynch Osie. He is my top scumread by a bit. If I was in a situation that I had to lynch Osie or someone else, and thought that Osie was still a viable lynch... I'd still push for it for as long as I could.
Barring that though, no lynching is much worse than lynching a potential town DoTA. At least DoTA gives us info, and as I said earlier he hasn't really been town, and is a better lynch than other potentially viable options (like maybe Shadow, or Jenna).
We've been in one game together. He was town, and I scumread him all game, until Az got me to back off.I can't reemmber the name of the game. I think it was his first game?
Why?
@Shadow: top 3 lynches are Osie, DoTA... and if I have to pick a third, maybe reaver, athough I feel much less good about that.
Players are reminded that public discussion related to Osieorb18's posts (#251 and #253) is a violation of rule #2. If you have a concern, please bring it to me directly or to a member of the Mafia Council.
Osieorb18 may continue posting.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I think Shadow's having fun, posting honest posts, and really solving without manipulating people. I guess I have difficulty imagining him passing up the opportunity to mess with people in this game as scum, too.
I've mentioned my conspiracy theory regarding my top three. Jenna makes the list because while I feel like I'm on the verge of understanding what's been said, I don't feel like working that hard to figure it out. Dot is on the list despite a feeling that he's town, he's not around, he's got some scum stain, and I don't want a no-lynch.
Be back either tonight or tomorrow.
A Bear mentioned he was scumread by everybody but got few votes #187 (although they later voted him in a place that would be a pretty hard bus unless Osie is also scum, albeit at the same time that they literally said they thought DotA's scumteam was abandoning him. #209)
Both Vaimes #200 and Voxx #222 have called him an easy lynch, which seems like something you should pull out earlier in the Day if it's actually true, or a reason to ask him questions etc.
I think all of those look worse if DoTA is scum, and better if DoTA is Town.
-------------------
Could you give an example of something you think Killjoy has committed to? Give an example of something Killjoy could post that you would call a walk-back. Because right now he hasn't committed to any reads except Voxx being Town, which was justified with false premises anyway.
When players given reads posts, it's extremely clear whenever they change their reads, so other players can ask for justification. When players give impressions on specific posts, it's much harder to prove inconsistencies.
I agree reads posts which are just lists are easier to manipulate then giving reasons without ranking players. I like reads posts like yours where every read has some justification.
I think you're around 60% scum, Colin is around 50% scum given you are scum, and Colin is around 30% scum given you are not scum.
Those % are eyeball don't hold me to them.
Why do you think Osie needs good reasons to consolidate given that you have just stated you are not voting me because of the need to consolidate?
I wanted to see his response to being told his premises are incorrect. He kept the read the same but stated his experiences with you have been different. I'm not going to dredge through old games to find out if that statement is justified, but if it is I think his read evolution there is a nulltell.
Killjoy: Townreading KJ, his posts read like he's invested in solving the game.
@Killjoy:In answer to your questions earlier
Shadow being cocky doesn't necessarily mean anything, I was just engaging with him regarding his post to see how he would react. I didn't expect the reaction I got from the rest of the players(except Osie who barned and voted)
Jenna's first post of the game was a naked vote on Shadow, and it put him at L-2. And it came straight after Silver had posted a vote count. I wanted to know if Jenna was scumreading Shadow or just jumping on the wagon, and why.
A Bear: Null. Not a lot of posts, the few that there are though contain a lot of talk about older games, a lot of meta on Vaimes/Voxx and suspicions based on votals but very little solid evidence. Nothing looks suspect though to make me think scum.
King Torg: Scum. Voted Tau for the over-explanatory post but then unvoted without saying anything. Lolclaimed scum for some reason. Not sure what "a professional mafia player" is and how I gave them the impression I was one.
@King Torg: 1)Why the unvote? 2)In the same post that you say Osie is getting progressively townier you call him scum "for lack of stronger reads right now". Why arent you voting for Osie then?
Colin: Townread. No alarm bells, thought process easy to follow.
Jenna: No clue. I can't read these posts. Some kinda make sense while others just leave me scratching my head. I will admit to getting OTGIII flashbacks, but that's more of a personal issue than anything necessarily game related.
Tubba Fett: I can't really put my finger on any specific thing but I don't like Tubba's ISO. Light scumread for now.
Will go through the rest tomorrow.
That's not even close to what I said. I said that Osie should, by this time, be solidly scumreading someone (at least a little bit) for reasons more substancial than "tinfoil". Maybe 'solidly scumrading' is the wrong choice of words. His best lynch choices right now (DoTA and Bear) are for the reason of "tinfoil". IDK how often you hear that word, reaver... but when I think of tinfoiling, I think that one of my townreads is somehow scum that I missed.
To reiterate, the BEST reason to lynch someone is because he's tinfoiling that they're scum. And, IIRC... one of them (Bear) he's actually never mentioned before. I'm going to do a reread of him to check and see if I can make a case for how I feel about him now, but still. He should have at least some kind of scumread on someone for reasons.
Also, part of your argument in posts to others seems to be that you want a reads list from me. Why haven't you just asked me for it?
Also hey @Reaverb: You never answered my question:
You know what? I think I'll do a reads list. Then I'm gonna make a post on Osie, I think.
Voxx
Lean Town:
Colin
Less Town:
Bear
Vaimes?
Shadow
Null:
Tubba
King Torg
Jenna
Less Scum:
Reaverb Tau
Lean Scum:
DoTA
Scum:
Osie
-------------
Voxx: I've given reasons for this, and his later posts have held true to it. He's trying to solve the game, Voxx style.
Colin: hasn't posted much, but I like where his head is at. He's critically thinking. Potentially a little biased because a lot of that has gone into thinking I'm town and defending me.
Bear: Similar to Colin, Critically thinking, but less so.
Vaimes: This is MOSTLY sheeping Voxx. He seems pretty sure that Vaimes is town, and I've had a bunch of trouble reading Vaimes. So I'm trusting Voxx on this for now.
Shadow: His early posts were giving me town vibes, like I said... plus the speed of the early wagon on him makes me think it was probably a wagon on town. That said, Vaimes did make a good point that shadow asking who on his wagon is scum and not doing the work is weird. Also he doesn't want to lynch either of the major wagons, which is also weird.
Tubba/King Torg/Jenna: None of these have really made a large impression on me.
REaver: I don't fully understand where he's coming from. Like, he thinks I'm scum for not posting a reads list, but never asks me for one. Also his 214 feels off.
DotA: Been over this. Not really scum but specifically doesn't really feel town, which I don't like.
Osie: I plan later today to make a post on this. Suffice it to say his mindset feels scummy to me.
DoTArchon - 4 (Jenna Tolaria, King Torg, A Bear, osieorb18)
osieorb18 - 3 (DoTArchon, Tubba Fett, Killjoy)
A Bear - 1 (Vaimes)
Jenna Tolaria - 1 (shadowlancerx)
Killjoy - 1 (Reaverb Tau)
shadowlancerx - 1 (Voxxicus)
Not Voting - 1 (Colin)
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends at 11:59 on 15 October 2017 (24 hours from now).
If your vote is uncounted and I didn't say why, please PM me or DM me on discord so I can investigate.
shadowlancerx is V/LA until further notice.
24 hours to deadline.
I do not feel like you actually care about town winning this game.
Let's dance.
I mean, was there anything to say? He gave reasoning, which was the only thing I had wanted from him, so I unvoted.
Hell yeah I did.
Well, a professional mafia player is (I assume) someone who plays mafia for money. That said, what I meant was "experienced mafia player." My bad.
And as I said before, I honestly don't know why.
Just because Osi is getting progressively townier doesn't mean he's not scum, it just means that at a later date I might read him as town. If I had to pick a scum team right now, Osi would be a part of it. However, you are also part of it, so I'm voting for you.
I'll try to post more in the morning when my body is (hopefully!) not actively trying to kill me.
-Barney Stinson
"Hodor"
-Hodor
It's really hard to get accurate town reads on people when scum can blend in with town apathy and not have to pretend to care, not have to pretend to work and solve, not have to pretend to drive the game forward.
Like.
Part of me kind of thinks Osie and Dota might be V/V, and wolves are just content with the gamestate and letting that deadline clock tick.
My previous vote on Beru could have easily gone on Reaverb instead. I'm calling those two out specifically as people I have trouble seeing acting the way they're acting as villagers this game. Where's the spark? Where's the inquisitiveness, the drive?
You both feel so damn wooden, like you're going through the motions with token posts.
There's 24 hours left in the day, let's wake up, smell the coffee, and act alive.
That's directed at everyone.
Talk to me about Bear, Voxx. What tells you he doesn't care about the town winning?
It can be like pulling teeth sometimes to get Beru to talk about why they think what they think, but it rarely is difficult to get them to talk about what they think.
Like... I'm not looking for the Beru that 700 posted the DLP WH and spams the thread. I know circumstances aren't allowing for that.
But I'm not seeing any signs of the Beru that has strong feelings about things, and talks about them and pursues them. The Beru that's had good reads in spec chats, and is obnoxious about sharing them. Over and over and over.
There's just something missing. It's not activity, though I do think town!Beru in a game with myself and Vaimes is a little more active than she has been.
It's a little bit investement/engagement, a little bit a lack of 'smug', a little bit a lack of conviction, a little bit a lack of just...caring.
Regarding your feelings on Bear, I'm inclined to take your word for it, I've no previous experience with them so everything you say could be true and a perfectly valid reason to put vote pressure on them. However, I dont think you are going to be able to bring enough people on with what is essentially a meta read to make a lynch happen there. Talk to me about Osie, Tau, Dot and Colin. Does your meta offer you any insight on those players?
Oh heck, this is exactly what I was seeing. It's good that someone else sees it.
Vote: A Bear
Voxx has never played with me.
Voxx, one of the main problems I'm having with this game is that I absolutely hate it when people aren't playing and yell at people for it all the time? And, like, now I can't really play because I can't use the forum on my phone, and I feel terrible about it. I can’t even yell at other people for not playing, because I can’t ******* post either. You should already know how I feel about this because my hate of it is a Known Beru Fact. I’d probably be posting more if Curse wasn’t trash, actually. Not, like, 700 posts, lol, but I’d actually be able to post when I’m not home which is usually when I have the time to - waiting for the bus, eating lunch, on break, whatever. Being smothered by my inability to actually play the game is making me feel p ambivalent about the entire forum, and I probably won’t play here after this. Trying to get over it, trying not to post about it, it’s affecting my gameplay so I guess I DO have to acknowledge it, I hate everything, etc. (Also, I feel like when I do make posts, very few people actually want to talk to me? It’s like people are sliding right past what posts I do get to make. Not sure if this is just me, though.)
Posts I write from notes are going to “feel pre-constructed”, to borrow Newcomb’s words on this, because I’m taking the notes I’ve already made and turning them into bigposts. I’m always going to edit what I’m saying because I’m writing things down when I think about them and then make it into something resembling a coherent post when I’m actually at my lappy. I’m not a stream of consciousness player.
Probably don't want to lynch outside of Dota and Osie today, mostly because I feel like if we don’t do it now, it’ll end up being terrible later? Also, I don’t feel like we have enough time to do anything else. The fact that nothing related to anything is really happening tbh is giving me insight into those people who are always like “wah d1 is useless”. I want something actually concrete in this game because actual flips and night actions feel like they'll help more since there’s very few posts to go off of. Was hoping that at least one person would have a reaction to me saying that I want Dota and Osie to seriously fight each other, but it feels like very few people actually care about what’s happened since the initial wagon on Shadow? I really wish they had actually engaged with each other seriously, because that could have actually been useful. If both of them are mafia, maybe we could've seen that they don’t really want to kill the other person or that they have tmi that they're both mafia and lynch both of them, and if only one of them is mafia, that person could have been forced to push something that they might not necessarily be interested in getting their hands dirty with? Probably not enough time left, but when I posted it, like, two days ago, there definitely was…
Ok, but I still want to hear from Voxx and hear what Bear has to say. Like, if I understand, you're both voting Bear because their behaviour doesn't sync up with previous games? Explain how relevant/reliable meta reads tend to be.
A Bear, Osie, Dota. With the activity in this game right now I don't have confidence in my ability to lead a different lynch, so one of those will have to do.
Osie: The "scummiest" of the three, but I just don't see him as a good day one lynch.
Dota: Lower activity, and I really don't know what to make of him.
A Bear: Notably being wagoned by Vaimes, Voxx, and Osie, which makes me o.O
The frustration I can completely understand too.
Ugh.
Vote Reaverb
I need every person willing to lynch either Reaverb or Jenna to chime in and vote within a couple hours. More people have expressed willingness to lynch reverb that I remember so that's what I'm going to try for. If we can't make it then we'll pick one of the above.
A Bear - 3 (Vaimes, Voxxicus, osieorb18) (L-4)
DoTArchon - 3 (Jenna Tolaria, King Torg, A Bear) (L-4)
osieorb18 - 3 (DoTArchon, Tubba Fett, Killjoy) (L-4)
Killjoy - 1 (Reaverb Tau)
Reaverb Tau - 1 (shadowlancerx)
Not Voting - 1 (Colin)
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends at 11:59 on 15 October 2017 (Less than 12 hours).
If your vote is uncounted and I didn't say why, please PM me or DM me on discord so I can investigate.
After Killjoy's last bit of activity I prefer to dedicate at least another Day phase to investigating him.
Vote: TubbaFett is the only person I'm OK with turbo-lynching.
I strongly prefer killing DoTA over Osie if it comes to that.
--------------------
shadowlynx and Voxx are both trying to doubt-cast me without giving any evidence whatsoever. If they actually have cases they should post them. (Voxx said I seemed dis-engaged which feels completely fake when I've started two wagons and felt for half the game I was being rate-limited more by the thread velocity than the time I had to post).
I agree with the majority of this. I'd be willing to lynch Jenna. I'm not sure about Tau. I'll do a quick ISO of him in a bit.
-Barney Stinson
"Hodor"
-Hodor
@Shadow: you see three people sitting at 3 votes 12 hours from deadline... So you vote off all three wagons? What's the deal there?
My issue is with their behavior in just this game. I've never seen their other games and meta reads are WIFOM at best.
This progression isn't as bad with the 2nd post correctly inserted, but it's still weird.
The correct way to process evidence is Get Evidence -> Determine how that effects your reads -> Compile all the evidence-read-effect determinations into a reads list, lynch the person at the bottom.
However, TubbaFett instead focuses solely on Osie's contribution to the shadow wagon, then moving on to look at DoTA after being prompted (by DoTA's post on his shadow progression in the "..."
=============
Self-consciousness:
Just look over TubbaFett's ISO and you can see how much he's focused on me for starting the wagon on him:
Around a third of his posts have "@Tau" somewhere in there, to the exclusion of interaction with almost anybody else. Besides Osie, who also voted him, his only other question are 1-offs to Jenna and Voxx
I assumed mtgs would have more placid Day ends given they have the longest non-joke Day phases I've ever seen, is scrambling in the last 12 hours still the usual here?
I decided to ignore TubbaFett for a few days because I was a bit concerned I was tunneling when my original argument turned out to have false premise but he didn't stop feeling like scum to me. I didn't think it was possible to get a lynch going with just 3 days to deadline.
First, there's the self-conciousness again, as TubbaFett looks at a massive reads posts from Colin and picks out only the part relevant to himself.
Second, he's using a really bizarre reading of the phrase "guide to how not to post as mafia". This is a pretty common idiom meaning "a collections of mistakes which are commonly made when [in this case: posting as mafia]". TubbaFett twisting this around to "posts mafia do not make" manages to have all the triviality of being pedantic while still being technically wrong anyway.
@Shadow: I mean, ok. But my point is that we're probably not lynching reaver today, so pushing him right now is just... Not useful to our situation right now.
Hell, Bear is probably just as unlikely to get lynched today due to how late in the day Voxx proposed him (among other reasons).
If I were you, I'd figure out your feelings between DotA and Osie, and Lynch one of them.
Actually, same goes for you, Reaver. That vote on tubba is doing similarly nothing. I doubt you'll get enough votes to Lynch him before deadline.
I'd vote Tau if things go that way. I don't trust his read on me as genuine and think he's deflecting for a buddy. That said I'd prefer Osie first.
I will be periodically checking in as the deadline approaches, as time permits but I'm having a late thanksgiving dinner. A no-lynch isn't great so let's go folks. I would vote Osie, Tau, Dot, or Jenna in that order for reasons I've already stated. I'm open to discussion regarding these votes up to deadline as time permits.
-Barney Stinson
"Hodor"
-Hodor
osieorb18 - 4 (DoTArchon, Tubba Fett, Killjoy, King Torg) (L-3)
A Bear - 3 (Vaimes, Voxxicus, osieorb18)
DoTArchon - 2 (Jenna Tolaria, A Bear)
Killjoy - 1 (Reaverb Tau)
Reaverb Tau - 1 (shadowlancerx)
Not Voting - 1 (Colin)
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends at 11:59 on 15 October 2017 (6 hours).
If your vote is uncounted and I didn't say why, please PM me or DM me on discord so I can investigate.
I scumread DoTArchon and townread Osie, between the two I think DoTA is definitely the correct lynch
DoTArchon:
The shadow wagon stuff has been so heavily discussed I'm going to assume everybody has drawn their own opinion on it.
Talking about his own inexperience is scummy, because the main use case of establishing that fact about yourself is to excuse -EV Town behavior as noobiness. Notice he doesn't talk about what he's good at specifically or try to ask questions to players he considers more experienced.
(I know in context his experience is relevant for reasons unrelated to that but that could have been established with just the first sentence.)
He vanished for a very long time, showing little will to effect the gamestate.
His reads in #265 are bad in meta reasons because:
1) He promised more reads but has not yet delivered.
2) He choose to do them only near the Day end, when Town has less time to get off him or take his reads into account, which makes them more useful as an anti-lynch shield than an attempt to solve the game before possible death.
3) He has chosen to read players from least to greatest ISO, rather than a sensible ordering such as "starting with the players who are most likely to be lynched", which would indicate Town trying to use the lynch productively.
Judging the post in isolation, most of them are one-liners which don't show empirical evidence:
Example:
He doesn't give any reasons for why KJ's posts "read like he's invested". What would be the case this read wouldn't apply - if somebody was turbo-lurking or making posts tangential to the gamethread? I could see that read applying to around half the game. Also see his Colin and TubbaFett reads.
The few times he does mention empirical it tends to be information with analysis:
This is a factual list of what King Torg has done. It doesn't explain why what King Torg has done is more likely to come from scum than Town.
I agree their behavior on the shadow wagon was scummy, assume you've drawn your own opinions.
First, unlike DoTA, Osie's reads have had explanations. I haven't normally agreed with them - I think #129 was nitpicky and overread into the little info available at the time - but it specifically called out posts in several places and described some fine-grained distinctions (for example, it calls Voxx "fake" vs. King Trog "posting to be a part of things". It describes shadow as "prodding" and TubbaFett/Jenna as "defensive", which are much easier reads to counter-argue, concur, or begin looking for in future posts.
Osie has been more active moving their vote around. They haven't tried to start a wagon themselves, but they have jumped on both TubbaFett and A Bear trying to make things happen. As opposed to DoTA, who has stayed locked on his counterwagon for over a week. While Osie is looking around for the best lynch, DoTA is content to sit on the most plausible alternative.
I like the way they handled Jenna (#220 is the conclusion of that particular interaction) - gathered a large amount of evidence on a specific behavior, asked Jenna questions on it, decided it was less strong than they original thought and reduced the read strength before moving on.
I think that Osie could be scum, but I don't think lynchig him today is the right call, and I'm not sold on Dota as scum. I'm gonna sheep Voxx on this one and hope.
A Bear - 4 (Vaimes, Voxxicus, osieorb18, shadowlancerx) (L-3)
osieorb18 - 4 (DoTArchon, Tubba Fett, Killjoy, King Torg) (L-3)
DoTArchon - 3 (Jenna Tolaria, A Bear, Reaverb Tau)
Not Voting - 1 (Colin)
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends at 11:59 on 15 October 2017 (4 hours).
If your vote is uncounted and I didn't say why, please PM me or DM me on discord so I can investigate.
I suggest Bear/Osie/Dota either claim or plan to be around for a quick claim, because it's down to the wire.
DA, on the other hand, further burns as my kismesis.
I will swap to the growler if necessary, though my feelings aren't as strong as they are for DA.