Ok, I'll go into this now. I am traditionally used to a town player being referred to as Vanilla Town. However, EL has used the term Town Vanilla a couple times, RE also claimed Town Vanilla. Something in my Role PM also indicated that would be the case. Then WG flipped Town Vanilla.
Anyways, I just looked through other games to confirm if this was something different and I realized that lots of game use that terminology, so I'm an idiot and I no longer think RE and EL get a free pass for saying TV instead of VT. That was my big stupid tell. I'm sorry it didn't work out. I just realized it as I was typing it out, but instead of just ignoring it, I thought I owed it to you to at least explain it.
The vanilla cop shot is really only useful to scum, and the only time it's useful to town is when trying to catch someone in a fake claim, and that's not happening now that the shot's been revealed to exist.
...You're totally contradicting yourself. As you just said, there's no use trying to catch someone in a fake claim now that the shot's existence is known. Therefore, what's the point in shadow hiding information?
People tend to "contradict" themselves when you choose to focus on only one part of their explanation. I said that it narrows down who the remaining PRs are, and given that there was no night kill, there's most likely a doctor and/or roleblocker. I offered a downside to shadow revealing, and I'm asking for the benefits of it. Can you provide any?
Ok, I'll go into this now. I am traditionally used to a town player being referred to as Vanilla Town. However, EL has used the term Town Vanilla a couple times, RE also claimed Town Vanilla. Something in my Role PM also indicated that would be the case. Then WG flipped Town Vanilla.
Well, I intentionally underlined it when I claimed in hopes it would clear me without revealing it was a clear, but that was wishful thinking.
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The benefit is that not revealing the information would be hiding information from Town. Why would you ever want that?
If he hadn't revealed the result, I would've assumed he was Mafia, because that'd imply he would rather tell his factional Night chat the result instead of sharing it with Town. Then Town gets no extra information from the shot and Mafia does.
We have no indications thus far that the Mafia have any power roles at all. If you're under the impression that there's a Doctor or Roleblocker, learning that someone is non-Vanilla should make that person much more likely to be Town in your eyes, which is useful information for us and pointless information for scum. So revealing results is good.
The vanilla cop shot is really only useful to scum, and the only time it's useful to town is when trying to catch someone in a fake claim, and that's not happening now that the shot's been revealed to exist.
...You're totally contradicting yourself. As you just said, there's no use trying to catch someone in a fake claim now that the shot's existence is known. Therefore, what's the point in shadow hiding information?
Narrowing down the PR pool for scum to shoot into? Which RE said in that same post.
The vanilla cop shot is really only useful to scum, and the only time it's useful to town is when trying to catch someone in a fake claim, and that's not happening now that the shot's been revealed to exist.
...You're totally contradicting yourself. As you just said, there's no use trying to catch someone in a fake claim now that the shot's existence is known. Therefore, what's the point in shadow hiding information?
Narrowing down the PR pool for scum to shoot into? Which RE said in that same post.
I agree that we should be revealing this information. It's just convincing me more and more that AG is scum.
Oh, I think I get what you're saying. I thought you were implying that Mafia-shadow would reveal the info and Town-shadow wouldn't, which makes no sense to me because a Mafia player is far less likely to reveal information that he can just share with his friends in Night-chat. But you're actually just saying that you disagree with the choice to reveal the result even if it comes from Town-shadow, right? I can see that line, but unfortunately, because a Mafia player wouldn't reveal the info, a Town player kind of has to reveal to avoid being scum-read. (And, therefore, so does a Mafia player, to avoid being scum-read.)
It's still better for Town for the most part anyway, though, especially since I don't believe there's a second protective role. Rhand was almost certainly protective, given his role's name.
We have no indications thus far that the Mafia have any power roles at all. If you're under the impression that there's a Doctor or Roleblocker, learning that someone is non-Vanilla should make that person much more likely to be Town in your eyes, which is useful information for us and pointless information for scum. So revealing results is good.
What? How is that information pointless for scum? Pretty sure that's a big reason why Rhand got killed - because he revealed himself to be a PR.
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Well, what's done is done. Maybe I'm just disappointed with the results.
...
I was going to make a big theory about how scum would be more likely to push a Shinichi lynch after WG flipped town, because that's the easy way to go, but I'm really not against Shinichi being lynched either.
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Oh, I think I get what you're saying. I thought you were implying that Mafia-shadow would reveal the info and Town-shadow wouldn't, which makes no sense to me because a Mafia player is far less likely to reveal information that he can just share with his friends in Night-chat. But you're actually just saying that you disagree with the choice to reveal the result even if it comes from Town-shadow, right? I can see that line, but unfortunately, because a Mafia player wouldn't reveal the info, a Town player kind of has to reveal to avoid being scum-read. (And, therefore, so does a Mafia player, to avoid being scum-read.)
It's still better for Town for the most part anyway, though, especially since I don't believe there's a second protective role. Rhand was almost certainly protective, given his role's name.
I just don't get anything you're saying right now. First off we just had a night with no kill and you're saying you strongly don't believe there was a protective role alive?
Second I strongly agree both sides are motivated to share the results of AG's shot. I just think it's leaps and bounds more valuable for scum to do so. Scum narrows their PoE to shoot into, while town gets to force people to accurately claim vanilla or power. One of those is much more valuable than the other. And AG being alive strongly suggests the scum team feels the same way. If they were worried about his ability they would have killed him and limited the damage. You better believe if he was a alignment cop shot giver he'd be dead on the ground right now. (assuming he wasn't protected last night, but given the utter lack of town reads on him I find that a stretch)
Also - I'm not forgetting the whole if WG is town, Shinichi is more likely to be town argument, but we have no scum flips, and those make much better interaction analysis. Behavior alone, Shinichi is really scummy, even more so than usual.
By the way, @EL, I recall you asking shadow way back if his ability was a permanent neighborizer or something else (too lazy to dig it up). What made you think it was anything but a permanent? I ask because I've never seen an ability like shadow's where he can neighborize multiple people a game, so I automatically assumed it was a one-time thing with Grapefruit.
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I just don't get anything you're saying right now. First off we just had a night with no kill and you're saying you strongly don't believe there was a protective role alive?
Well, I didn't wanna spread fear, but since you're asking me about it...I'm not familiar with the sorts of setups this forum uses and how difficult they like to make things for Town, but hypothetically, if there were four Mafia instead of three, a no-kill last Night would've been the proper call. Because it means a mislynch toDay is a probable loss toNight.
Second I strongly agree both sides are motivated to share the results of AG's shot. I just think it's leaps and bounds more valuable for scum to do so. Scum narrows their PoE to shoot into, while town gets to force people to accurately claim vanilla or power. One of those is much more valuable than the other.
But...that doesn't make any sense. Scum narrow their PoE regardless of whether or not they share the results publically, because they'll just share the results at Night.
And AG being alive strongly suggests the scum team feels the same way. If they were worried about his ability they would have killed him and limited the damage. You better believe if he was a alignment cop shot giver he'd be dead on the ground right now.
Again, you're conflating "who benefits more from the info" with "who is more likely to reveal the info". It's debatable who benefits more, but it's definitely arguable that Mafia do, and yes, they certainly think that's true since they haven't shot him yet. However, when someone has that information anyway, it's not a scum-tell for that person to reveal the results, because scum could just share the info silently at Night anyway.
Essentially, the paradox here is that the only way Mafia benefits from someone publically revealing the results is if the person revealing them is Town. Mafia doesn't benefit from revealing the results cuz they'll already be able to discuss the results at Night. So, even if you consider Cop-shot result reveals to be anti-Town behavior, it's anti-Town behavior that can only come from Town. (Or it's totally null behavior that comes from scum blending in.) So revealing still ends up being the right play.
By the way, @EL, I recall you asking shadow way back if his ability was a permanent neighborizer or something else (too lazy to dig it up). What made you think it was anything but a permanent? I ask because I've never seen an ability like shadow's where he can neighborize multiple people a game, so I automatically assumed it was a one-time thing with Grapefruit.
Oh, I thought it was a permanent and multi-use role until he explained otherwise. I was thinking something more like a Cult effect but without altering alignments. Mason-chat would be the proper term, I guess?
I just thought that was the most likely ability since people were using the term "neighborizer" to refer to it, which to me implies building up a neighborhood over multiple Nights rather than just...temporarily becoming neighbors with one person.
I just don't get anything you're saying right now. First off we just had a night with no kill and you're saying you strongly don't believe there was a protective role alive?
Well, I didn't wanna spread fear, but since you're asking me about it...I'm not familiar with the sorts of setups this forum uses and how difficult they like to make things for Town, but hypothetically, if there were four Mafia instead of three, a no-kill last Night would've been the proper call. Because it means a mislynch toDay is a probable loss toNight.
I would be floored if there were 4 scum in a 12 person game (also I completely disagree with your proposed line of play being ideal, but that is neither here nor there). But again it is really strange to me that you immediately assumed we had no protective left, despite the no NK.
Second I strongly agree both sides are motivated to share the results of AG's shot. I just think it's leaps and bounds more valuable for scum to do so. Scum narrows their PoE to shoot into, while town gets to force people to accurately claim vanilla or power. One of those is much more valuable than the other.
But...that doesn't make any sense. Scum narrow their PoE regardless of whether or not they share the results publically, because they'll just share the results at Night.
Scum often doesn't have a day chat on mtgs. It's not a hard and fast rule, but an often one. If that were true in this case scum wouldn't be able to share the result with their team till the following night given they won't receive the result until morning.
And AG being alive strongly suggests the scum team feels the same way. If they were worried about his ability they would have killed him and limited the damage. You better believe if he was a alignment cop shot giver he'd be dead on the ground right now.
Again, you're conflating "who benefits more from the info" with "who is more likely to reveal the info". It's debatable who benefits more, but it's definitely arguable that Mafia do, and yes, they certainly think that's true since they haven't shot him yet. However, when someone has that information anyway, it's not a scum-tell for that person to reveal the results, because scum could just share the info silently at Night anyway.
Essentially, the paradox here is that the only way Mafia benefits from someone publically revealing the results is if the person revealing them is Town. Mafia doesn't benefit from revealing the results cuz they'll already be able to discuss the results at Night. So, even if you consider Cop-shot result reveals to be anti-Town behavior, it's anti-Town behavior that can only come from Town. (Or it's totally null behavior that comes from scum blending in.) So revealing still ends up being the right play.
I have stated repeatedly that I think both alignments are incentivized to share the info. And I am not reading Shadow or Vaimes by their choice to reveal it. I am stressing that this (despite it being the right play) does not help town. At all. And that is a huge part of why I think AG is scum.
You are so focused on the motivation of the person revealing it that you are missing my point about the role as a whole. Even if scum has day chat and could share the results while keeping it quiet it does not hurt them at all to go public with it, because town gains so little from the knowledge being public. So when people say why would scum!AG give the shot to town!Vaimes I say that the opportunity cost to do so is practically zero. Because it makes the most sense for scum to have the results be public (so AG can true claim and not face questions of why haven't people been announcing the results) it also offers the scum team more protection from potential roleblockers.
All of this is on top of the fact that I don't think a single person in the game is town reading AG and he really needs to be lynched. He's as much a question mark as Shin is at this stage, but with a role that is doing more harm than good to town.
I would be floored if there were 4 scum in a 12 person game (also I completely disagree with your proposed line of play being ideal, but that is neither here nor there). But again it is really strange to me that you immediately assumed we had no protective left, despite the no NK.
I assumed we had no protective roles left a long time ago, as soon as Rhand flipped Deathguard on Night One. The no-Night-Kill makes it less likely, certainly, but I'd still be more willing to entertain other options such as a roleblocker, rather than Town Deathguard somehow not being a name for a protective role, or the extremely Town-sided setup of two protectives in a 12-person game. (I could see two protectives in a 4-Mafia game, but that still leaves us with the 4-Maf possibility.)
Actually, upon learning of this kill-less Night, my second thought (after the 4-Mafia one) was that Rhand has a 1-shot post-death protective ability, but that's really drawing on my experiences with weird setups that are probably inapplicable here.
Scum often doesn't have a day chat on mtgs. It's not a hard and fast rule, but an often one. If that were true in this case scum wouldn't be able to share the result with their team till the following night given they won't receive the result until morning.
Which...makes no difference when you're talking about how they'd use the results to inform their Night-shooting, by which time they'd have the information anyway?
You are so focused on the motivation of the person revealing it that you are missing my point about the role as a whole.
Oh, no, I'm not. I totally agree that AG's role makes more sense in scum hands; that's half the reason I noted yesterDay that he should be our first priority toDay. I just didn't realize you were trying to make that point at the moment, when RE and I were discussing the very different subject of shadow's alignment.
To clarify, my #1610 was directed towards RE cuz I didn't see your two immediately-preceding posts until after I posted, so I think that's where our confusion arose. I agree with your statements; they just weren't relevant to mine at the time.
I reread QH and there were a lot of words, but not a lot of meat. I would be interested in exploring his Lynch. Let's talk about AG for a minute. His ability screams scum to me. His play has been less than townie. I have mislynched him recently, so I hesitate to jump on him again. We know his ability is real. So if he is scum, how does he benefit from giving that ability to anyone but scum? If he is giving the ability to scum there is no reason for any of them to claim it. Why would scum-AG give the ability to non-scum players? None of it makes sense if AG is scum. AG is town. This does NOT clear Shadow or Vaimes at all.
How is it the correct play for Vaimes and Shadow to play against their wincon? It can't simultaneously be bad for town to reveal and the "correct play" for town to reveal. Only one of those statements can be true.
Obviously the mafia would be trying to kill me harder if I was granting alignment cop shots, but that doesn't make me scum. My role not being as strong as an alignment cop isn't a condemnation. I didn't get to choose how powerful my role is.
You also seem to be missing the fact that scum are very unlikely to shoot the person that "should be first priority tomorrow". Scum want the mislynch.
2) if there's a Tracker and you get discovered visiting the same group of people repeatedly, then if you flip scum the Town knows exactly who to lynch after you
3) if your scum-buddies are being roleblocked you can still get the info you want (since the actual gifting isn't RB-able, as it's a Day ability)
2) if there's a Tracker and you get discovered visiting the same group of people repeatedly, then if you flip scum the Town knows exactly who to lynch after you
3) if your scum-buddies are being roleblocked you can still get the info you want (since the actual gifting isn't RB-able, as it's a Day ability)
So you are saying that AG is scum and Vaimes and Shadow are town?
@AG: It's not playing against their wincon. I can see the argument that the information reveal might be slightly bad for Town, but the act of revealing it is definitely a strong Town-tell for them, since Mafia would choose to keep the info hidden until Night-chat. Anything that helps to Town-clear them is thus playing to their wincon, and I'd argue that the advantage gained there is far stronger than any potential disadvantage of revealing information.
And yeah, I accept the argument that your being alive is a sign that the Mafia likes having your role around, but I don't consider that to be alignment-indicative at all.
So you are saying that AG is scum and Vaimes and Shadow are town?
No, I'm not remotely sold on shadow being Town. I'm just saying that "none of it makes sense if AG is scum" is going way too far. There are plenty of reasons for scum-AG to gift his ability to Townies.
2) if there's a Tracker and you get discovered visiting the same group of people repeatedly, then if you flip scum the Town knows exactly who to lynch after you
3) if your scum-buddies are being roleblocked you can still get the info you want (since the actual gifting isn't RB-able, as it's a Day ability)
Also, if you're handing out the ability for town credit, you still don't get the target you would prefer. If you keep it in house (aka within the scum team), you get to pick who your target is. It's too big of a gamble to dole that out for town credit when you could just control it yourself.
Agreed, there are definitely reasons to keep the ability in-house as well. And AG's particular choices of recipients have both made me happy at the time (Vaimes slightly less in retrospect, but I think it made sense that Night).
But Vanilla-Cop also isn't a particularly strong ability, so I don't think losing control of who you're targeting is that big a deal compared to the Town-cred benefit. It's not like gifting Viggie shots; there's not much potential for backfiring.
To clarify, my #1610 was directed towards RE cuz I didn't see your two immediately-preceding posts until after I posted, so I think that's where our confusion arose. I agree with your statements; they just weren't relevant to mine at the time.
AHhh I think that is where my confusion is coming from. I thought it was directed at me.
I could quibble with a few of your replies in the quote wall we had, but overall we are in agreement here.
How is it the correct play for Vaimes and Shadow to play against their wincon? It can't simultaneously be bad for town to reveal and the "correct play" for town to reveal. Only one of those statements can be true.
Obviously the mafia would be trying to kill me harder if I was granting alignment cop shots, but that doesn't make me scum. My role not being as strong as an alignment cop isn't a condemnation. I didn't get to choose how powerful my role is.
You also seem to be missing the fact that scum are very unlikely to shoot the person that "should be first priority tomorrow". Scum want the mislynch.
The correct play for an individual is not always in line with the correct play for town. As an individual with information like that you are incentivized to out it, even if that is not largely beneficial for town.
I reread QH and there were a lot of words, but not a lot of meat. I would be interested in exploring his Lynch. Let's talk about AG for a minute. His ability screams scum to me. His play has been less than townie. I have mislynched him recently, so I hesitate to jump on him again. We know his ability is real.
I'm with you so far Terry.
So if he is scum, how does he benefit from giving that ability to anyone but scum? If he is giving the ability to scum there is no reason for any of them to claim it. Why would scum-AG give the ability to non-scum players? None of it makes sense if AG is scum. AG is town. This does NOT clear Shadow or Vaimes at all.
And you lose me completely here. There are multiple reasons why scum would give the shot to town. I think it's actually a better play for scum to give it to town and have been walling back and forth with EL about that this entire page. I think I make the clearest argument in the last section of 1618. That said I do completely agree it says absolutely nothing about Shadow or Vaimes' alignment at this stage. With a scum flip I would revisit it in closer detail, but that's not worth doing now.
@Grapefruit: to phrase it better, I don't remember really anyone having a "I don't care who we lynch between Wheat/Shinichi," everyone had an opinion of one over the other, and while there was apathy in their conviction, no one was flip flopping back and forth like crazy.
Why does that make you think that one or the other is scum? That seems...exactly reversed. If one were scum, then any Mafia on the wagons would be trying to focus people onto the Town wagon; if they're both Town, then Maf's happy with either one being lynched. That's a large part of the reason I won't support a Shinichi lynch at the moment.
Anywho, Vaimes didn't particularly care between the two. And Proph said that Quickhoodies also hedged his bets between the two (although I haven't had time to double-check that yet). Which, again, makes me worry more about those two.
You literally just said the same thing that I did. Everyone was pushing one way or the other, no one sat in the middle. (I don't remember Vaimes doing so, would you quote him doing so if I missed it?)
Why was it necessary for @shadow to reveal that Proph was vanilla?
I can't think of any reason.
Because
1. I knew I had no risk of outing a PR
2. Holding information has the risk of a blowout.@Grape: I think AG is town, his behavior hasn't been really scummy despite what people keep saying (go read his iso), and I'm not seeing an agenda. I also think his use of his ability has been very much what I'd expect him to do as town.wrt the "Town Vanilla" thing, I have seen it come up in other games and it literally never matters. We are not in a game where an inexperienced host would make a mistake that cripples the scum team, I'm not willing to clear anyone based on it.
*snip*
@Grape: I think AG is town, his behavior hasn't been really scummy despite what people keep saying (go read his iso), and I'm not seeing an agenda. I also think his use of his ability has been very much what I'd expect him to do as town.
Can you go into the case a bit more. I understand lack of agenda is usually an okay town tell, but given the lack of flips I'm having trouble pointing out anyone with an agenda except QH and EL. And while I agree his PR use matches up pretty well with town, it has a narrow enough band of use that it falls safely within what I'd expect scum to do with it as well.
*snip*
@Grape: I think AG is town, his behavior hasn't been really scummy despite what people keep saying (go read his iso), and I'm not seeing an agenda. I also think his use of his ability has been very much what I'd expect him to do as town.
Can you go into the case a bit more. I understand lack of agenda is usually an okay town tell, but given the lack of flips I'm having trouble pointing out anyone with an agenda except QH and EL. And while I agree his PR use matches up pretty well with town, it has a narrow enough band of use that it falls safely within what I'd expect scum to do with it as well.
I think this is what bothered me so much about EL yesterday. It seemed like he had an agenda. I'd like to hear more about what you view QH's agenda as.
I think AG is town, his behavior hasn't been really scummy despite what people keep saying (go read his iso), and I'm not seeing an agenda. I also think his use of his ability has been very much what I'd expect him to do as town.
My notes on his Day One behavior were that he was trying to fly under the radar, but in retrospect that's equally likely for a Power Role as for scum. Other than that, yes, I haven't seen his behavior as particularly scummy either. It feels like he might be buddied with Quickhoodies, but if that's the case I'd be more comfortable going for QH before AG in order to find out if that's true.
The only reason I'm okay with pushing AG first is the argument that his ability is better for scum, which I do agree is the case, but I don't know the mod at all, so as far as I know it's quite possible that red herrings like that are common in his setups. Thus, I'm just going with what you all think on that front. What do you think with regard to that particular argument? You seemed particularly interested in reading into the setup design for clues, given your case against Shinichi.
@AG: Do you have to give out the role or could you choose not to?
oh noooooo
If he's scum, he'd just say "Oh, sure, I won't give it to anyone", then give it to a scum-buddy who can then use it without announcing the result. That's giving him a free out to continue using the ability without us ever knowing. pls no
*snip*
@Grape: I think AG is town, his behavior hasn't been really scummy despite what people keep saying (go read his iso), and I'm not seeing an agenda. I also think his use of his ability has been very much what I'd expect him to do as town.
Can you go into the case a bit more. I understand lack of agenda is usually an okay town tell, but given the lack of flips I'm having trouble pointing out anyone with an agenda except QH and EL. And while I agree his PR use matches up pretty well with town, it has a narrow enough band of use that it falls safely within what I'd expect scum to do with it as well.
I think this is what bothered me so much about EL yesterday. It seemed like he had an agenda. I'd like to hear more about what you view QH's agenda as.
He pushed the lynch towards Wheat before EL took it up. Dedicated one of the giant walls to it. And D1 took a strong anti stance before the no lynch. Refused to lynch Kpaca and Rhand (and iirc was also against the Shin train). Could be picky town, could be scum not wanting to join a wagon that will draw further attention.
But I think, if AG was town, it'd be better to keep it in his pants, figuratively speaking. So the fact that he didn't is minus town for him.
How do you figure? He can't usefully role-claim if no one will back up his claim, which no one can if he never gives anyone a Cop-shot. And setting up a role-claim is NAI. Seems like +/- 0 Townie Pts to me.
See, that sort of mentality is part of why I think AG's role is actually a Town role designed to seem scummy, to evoke exactly that sort of thought process and cause him to be mislynched. Maybe I'm too accustomed to bastard modding, but I wouldn't even consider something like that to be particularly bastard-y, just not very straightforward.
Sure, role-claiming a scummy role isn't a great gameplan, but honesty is still the best option for a Townie.
*snip*
@Grape: I think AG is town, his behavior hasn't been really scummy despite what people keep saying (go read his iso), and I'm not seeing an agenda. I also think his use of his ability has been very much what I'd expect him to do as town.
Can you go into the case a bit more. I understand lack of agenda is usually an okay town tell, but given the lack of flips I'm having trouble pointing out anyone with an agenda except QH and EL. And while I agree his PR use matches up pretty well with town, it has a narrow enough band of use that it falls safely within what I'd expect scum to do with it as well.
Sure, so AG has a history of posting like this, being an easy lynch to push, but there is no actual case on him being scum. Like everything boils down to "he's low impact and his role could be either alignment" which is a terrible case for anyone actually being scum. As far as most other people also not having an agenda, there are other things to look for too. Best I can tell, AG doesn't have any interaction tells that point to him being scum either. Like, I get I was fooled by a similar role before and I'm trying to leave his role out of it as best I can, but behaviorally, AG doesn't look like scum.
I think AG is town, his behavior hasn't been really scummy despite what people keep saying (go read his iso), and I'm not seeing an agenda. I also think his use of his ability has been very much what I'd expect him to do as town.
My notes on his Day One behavior were that he was trying to fly under the radar, but in retrospect that's equally likely for a Power Role as for scum. Other than that, yes, I haven't seen his behavior as particularly scummy either. It feels like he might be buddied with Quickhoodies, but if that's the case I'd be more comfortable going for QH before AG in order to find out if that's true.
The only reason I'm okay with pushing AG first is the argument that his ability is better for scum, which I do agree is the case, but I don't know the mod at all, so as far as I know it's quite possible that red herrings like that are common in his setups. Thus, I'm just going with what you all think on that front. What do you think with regard to that particular argument? You seemed particularly interested in reading into the setup design for clues, given your case against Shinichi.
I wouldn't even call his role a red herring, it works for both alignments, but does something different depending on which alignment it is.
Also, you realize that my case on Shinichi is founded in his behavior with his role as a secondary issue. If say Grapefruit had the crier role, I'd still think he was town.
I do realize that, but you also reference "interaction tells" with regard to clearing AG; don't you think the same is true for Shinichi? The only interaction tells I saw were with Wheat, and now that Wheat's flipped Town those are no longer worrisome, since they weren't pocket-type interactions.
The case against Shinichi has seemed to boil down to him: 1) repeatedly hedging and fence-sitting; and 2) not doing much scum-hunting. But he's seemed to be more of a Town-hunter than a Mafia-hunter, so I'm not personally worried about the latter. I was very much worried about the former and will still be somewhat okay with a lynch based on that, but his end-of-Day actions have mostly convinced me that he's just a hedger as part of his core personality. That sort of mentality would pretty much be a Day One policy lynch for me because it's not helpful for Town, but at this point in the game I can't risk a policy lynch, so I'd need more.
I do realize that, but you also reference "interaction tells" with regard to clearing AG; don't you think the same is true for Shinichi? The only interaction tells I saw were with Wheat, and now that Wheat's flipped Town those are no longer worrisome, since they weren't pocket-type interactions.
The case against Shinichi has seemed to boil down to him: 1) repeatedly hedging and fence-sitting; and 2) not doing much scum-hunting. But he's seemed to be more of a Town-hunter than a Mafia-hunter, so I'm not personally worried about the latter. I was very much worried about the former and will still be somewhat okay with a lynch based on that, but his end-of-Day actions have mostly convinced me that he's just a hedger as part of his core personality. That sort of mentality would pretty much be a Day One policy lynch for me because it's not helpful for Town, but at this point in the game I can't risk a policy lynch, so I'd need more.
Shinichi's complete lack of worry with kpaca's early townread on him and saying "He must have seen something that no one else did" is an interaction tell that just screams scum to me. Like regardless of Proph's alignment, that read made no sense and shin just being okay with it looks terrible. As far as him hunting for town...he isn't doing that either, like his strongest townreads he's like "yeah, they could be scum". And he's just inexplicably unable to show any consistency in his reads at all. So sure, my one interaction read is not a whole lot, but any good buddy saw him getting lynched before this game ends and cut ties/made some great theater pretty early. And he doesn't have any interactions that really make him look town either.
Regarding interactions that make him look Town, I find it difficult to believe scum-Shin would pass up pushing the Wheat counter-wagon at the end of the Day when it's basically Shinichi or Wheat. (Wheat's immediate and remorseless willingness to do that, after claiming Shinichi was a hard-Town-read for him, was part of why I'm so salty that he was Town.)
I've emphasized that EoD incident a few times now, and it seems a strong argument to me, but I'll also readily admit that it's one of the few arguments in Shinichi's favor, so I might be giving it too much weight.
Regarding interactions that make him look Town, I find it difficult to believe scum-Shin would pass up pushing the Wheat counter-wagon at the end of the Day when it's basically Shinichi or Wheat. (Wheat's immediate and remorseless willingness to do that, after claiming Shinichi was a hard-Town-read for him, was part of why I'm so salty that he was Town.)
I've emphasized that EoD incident a few times now, and it seems a strong argument to me, but I'll also readily admit that it's one of the few arguments in Shinichi's favor, so I might be giving it too much weight.
Like it's factually correct to vote the other wagon regardless of alignment. Plus Wheat was clearly tilted towards the end so I'm not surprised by that at all in retrospect. With Shin it's just hard to say as he hasn't done anything I'd expect from either alignment.
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Anyways, I just looked through other games to confirm if this was something different and I realized that lots of game use that terminology, so I'm an idiot and I no longer think RE and EL get a free pass for saying TV instead of VT. That was my big stupid tell. I'm sorry it didn't work out. I just realized it as I was typing it out, but instead of just ignoring it, I thought I owed it to you to at least explain it.
Rhand had already flipped Town Deathguard instead of Deathguard Town, though, so any attentive scum would've avoided making a slip like that.
People tend to "contradict" themselves when you choose to focus on only one part of their explanation. I said that it narrows down who the remaining PRs are, and given that there was no night kill, there's most likely a doctor and/or roleblocker. I offered a downside to shadow revealing, and I'm asking for the benefits of it. Can you provide any?
Well, I intentionally underlined it when I claimed in hopes it would clear me without revealing it was a clear, but that was wishful thinking.
If he hadn't revealed the result, I would've assumed he was Mafia, because that'd imply he would rather tell his factional Night chat the result instead of sharing it with Town. Then Town gets no extra information from the shot and Mafia does.
We have no indications thus far that the Mafia have any power roles at all. If you're under the impression that there's a Doctor or Roleblocker, learning that someone is non-Vanilla should make that person much more likely to be Town in your eyes, which is useful information for us and pointless information for scum. So revealing results is good.
Narrowing down the PR pool for scum to shoot into? Which RE said in that same post.
I agree that we should be revealing this information. It's just convincing me more and more that AG is scum.
Vote: AG
It's still better for Town for the most part anyway, though, especially since I don't believe there's a second protective role. Rhand was almost certainly protective, given his role's name.
What? How is that information pointless for scum? Pretty sure that's a big reason why Rhand got killed - because he revealed himself to be a PR.
Anyway, point stands that the Mafia can share the information in Night-Chat anyway, so it's best for Town to get the information out there.
...
I was going to make a big theory about how scum would be more likely to push a Shinichi lynch after WG flipped town, because that's the easy way to go, but I'm really not against Shinichi being lynched either.
I just don't get anything you're saying right now. First off we just had a night with no kill and you're saying you strongly don't believe there was a protective role alive?
Second I strongly agree both sides are motivated to share the results of AG's shot. I just think it's leaps and bounds more valuable for scum to do so. Scum narrows their PoE to shoot into, while town gets to force people to accurately claim vanilla or power. One of those is much more valuable than the other. And AG being alive strongly suggests the scum team feels the same way. If they were worried about his ability they would have killed him and limited the damage. You better believe if he was a alignment cop shot giver he'd be dead on the ground right now. (assuming he wasn't protected last night, but given the utter lack of town reads on him I find that a stretch)
By the way, @EL, I recall you asking shadow way back if his ability was a permanent neighborizer or something else (too lazy to dig it up). What made you think it was anything but a permanent? I ask because I've never seen an ability like shadow's where he can neighborize multiple people a game, so I automatically assumed it was a one-time thing with Grapefruit.
But...that doesn't make any sense. Scum narrow their PoE regardless of whether or not they share the results publically, because they'll just share the results at Night.
Again, you're conflating "who benefits more from the info" with "who is more likely to reveal the info". It's debatable who benefits more, but it's definitely arguable that Mafia do, and yes, they certainly think that's true since they haven't shot him yet. However, when someone has that information anyway, it's not a scum-tell for that person to reveal the results, because scum could just share the info silently at Night anyway.
Essentially, the paradox here is that the only way Mafia benefits from someone publically revealing the results is if the person revealing them is Town. Mafia doesn't benefit from revealing the results cuz they'll already be able to discuss the results at Night. So, even if you consider Cop-shot result reveals to be anti-Town behavior, it's anti-Town behavior that can only come from Town. (Or it's totally null behavior that comes from scum blending in.) So revealing still ends up being the right play.
I just thought that was the most likely ability since people were using the term "neighborizer" to refer to it, which to me implies building up a neighborhood over multiple Nights rather than just...temporarily becoming neighbors with one person.
I would be floored if there were 4 scum in a 12 person game (also I completely disagree with your proposed line of play being ideal, but that is neither here nor there). But again it is really strange to me that you immediately assumed we had no protective left, despite the no NK.
Scum often doesn't have a day chat on mtgs. It's not a hard and fast rule, but an often one. If that were true in this case scum wouldn't be able to share the result with their team till the following night given they won't receive the result until morning.
I have stated repeatedly that I think both alignments are incentivized to share the info. And I am not reading Shadow or Vaimes by their choice to reveal it. I am stressing that this (despite it being the right play) does not help town. At all. And that is a huge part of why I think AG is scum.
You are so focused on the motivation of the person revealing it that you are missing my point about the role as a whole. Even if scum has day chat and could share the results while keeping it quiet it does not hurt them at all to go public with it, because town gains so little from the knowledge being public. So when people say why would scum!AG give the shot to town!Vaimes I say that the opportunity cost to do so is practically zero. Because it makes the most sense for scum to have the results be public (so AG can true claim and not face questions of why haven't people been announcing the results) it also offers the scum team more protection from potential roleblockers.
All of this is on top of the fact that I don't think a single person in the game is town reading AG and he really needs to be lynched. He's as much a question mark as Shin is at this stage, but with a role that is doing more harm than good to town.
(Will get to QH reasoning soon, just been fairly busy)
I'm not in disagreement. Just think AG is more obviously scum.
Actually, upon learning of this kill-less Night, my second thought (after the 4-Mafia one) was that Rhand has a 1-shot post-death protective ability, but that's really drawing on my experiences with weird setups that are probably inapplicable here.
Which...makes no difference when you're talking about how they'd use the results to inform their Night-shooting, by which time they'd have the information anyway?
Oh, no, I'm not. I totally agree that AG's role makes more sense in scum hands; that's half the reason I noted yesterDay that he should be our first priority toDay. I just didn't realize you were trying to make that point at the moment, when RE and I were discussing the very different subject of shadow's alignment.
Obviously the mafia would be trying to kill me harder if I was granting alignment cop shots, but that doesn't make me scum. My role not being as strong as an alignment cop isn't a condemnation. I didn't get to choose how powerful my role is.
You also seem to be missing the fact that scum are very unlikely to shoot the person that "should be first priority tomorrow". Scum want the mislynch.
1) you can get Town-cred
2) if there's a Tracker and you get discovered visiting the same group of people repeatedly, then if you flip scum the Town knows exactly who to lynch after you
3) if your scum-buddies are being roleblocked you can still get the info you want (since the actual gifting isn't RB-able, as it's a Day ability)
And yeah, I accept the argument that your being alive is a sign that the Mafia likes having your role around, but I don't consider that to be alignment-indicative at all.
Agreed, there are definitely reasons to keep the ability in-house as well. And AG's particular choices of recipients have both made me happy at the time (Vaimes slightly less in retrospect, but I think it made sense that Night).
But Vanilla-Cop also isn't a particularly strong ability, so I don't think losing control of who you're targeting is that big a deal compared to the Town-cred benefit. It's not like gifting Viggie shots; there's not much potential for backfiring.
AHhh I think that is where my confusion is coming from. I thought it was directed at me.
I could quibble with a few of your replies in the quote wall we had, but overall we are in agreement here.
The correct play for an individual is not always in line with the correct play for town. As an individual with information like that you are incentivized to out it, even if that is not largely beneficial for town.
I'm with you so far Terry.
And you lose me completely here. There are multiple reasons why scum would give the shot to town. I think it's actually a better play for scum to give it to town and have been walling back and forth with EL about that this entire page. I think I make the clearest argument in the last section of 1618. That said I do completely agree it says absolutely nothing about Shadow or Vaimes' alignment at this stage. With a scum flip I would revisit it in closer detail, but that's not worth doing now.
1. I knew I had no risk of outing a PR
2. Holding information has the risk of a blowout.
@Grape: I think AG is town, his behavior hasn't been really scummy despite what people keep saying (go read his iso), and I'm not seeing an agenda. I also think his use of his ability has been very much what I'd expect him to do as town.
wrt the "Town Vanilla" thing, I have seen it come up in other games and it literally never matters. We are not in a game where an inexperienced host would make a mistake that cripples the scum team, I'm not willing to clear anyone based on it.
Can you go into the case a bit more. I understand lack of agenda is usually an okay town tell, but given the lack of flips I'm having trouble pointing out anyone with an agenda except QH and EL. And while I agree his PR use matches up pretty well with town, it has a narrow enough band of use that it falls safely within what I'd expect scum to do with it as well.
The only reason I'm okay with pushing AG first is the argument that his ability is better for scum, which I do agree is the case, but I don't know the mod at all, so as far as I know it's quite possible that red herrings like that are common in his setups. Thus, I'm just going with what you all think on that front. What do you think with regard to that particular argument? You seemed particularly interested in reading into the setup design for clues, given your case against Shinichi.
oh noooooo
If he's scum, he'd just say "Oh, sure, I won't give it to anyone", then give it to a scum-buddy who can then use it without announcing the result. That's giving him a free out to continue using the ability without us ever knowing. pls no
He pushed the lynch towards Wheat before EL took it up. Dedicated one of the giant walls to it. And D1 took a strong anti stance before the no lynch. Refused to lynch Kpaca and Rhand (and iirc was also against the Shin train). Could be picky town, could be scum not wanting to join a wagon that will draw further attention.
I'm not forced to use it.
Because people will argue about whether or not it is scummy. And some people (like you) will try to give him town credit for it.
Sure, role-claiming a scummy role isn't a great gameplan, but honesty is still the best option for a Townie.
Also, you realize that my case on Shinichi is founded in his behavior with his role as a secondary issue. If say Grapefruit had the crier role, I'd still think he was town.
The case against Shinichi has seemed to boil down to him: 1) repeatedly hedging and fence-sitting; and 2) not doing much scum-hunting. But he's seemed to be more of a Town-hunter than a Mafia-hunter, so I'm not personally worried about the latter. I was very much worried about the former and will still be somewhat okay with a lynch based on that, but his end-of-Day actions have mostly convinced me that he's just a hedger as part of his core personality. That sort of mentality would pretty much be a Day One policy lynch for me because it's not helpful for Town, but at this point in the game I can't risk a policy lynch, so I'd need more.
So who are you interested in lynching? If you are more in the camp that AG's role is null to town.
Same general question to you Shadow.
I've emphasized that EoD incident a few times now, and it seems a strong argument to me, but I'll also readily admit that it's one of the few arguments in Shinichi's favor, so I might be giving it too much weight.
Like it's factually correct to vote the other wagon regardless of alignment. Plus Wheat was clearly tilted towards the end so I'm not surprised by that at all in retrospect. With Shin it's just hard to say as he hasn't done anything I'd expect from either alignment.