@eternal, I forget if you've said or not already, but do you feel like a crier and a neighborizor are mechanically dissonant? Because if so, I feel like that's a significantly better reason to lynch Shinichi over Wheat.
Actually a thought just came to my mind...I'm going to try and phrase this so you understand without saying too much: You feel strongly about wheat needing to be a priority, is your reason more speculative than it is grounded? Because if it's grounded I am willing to trust you on this one. If you don't understand what I'm asking, then never mind, I don't want to say more.
I don't like to do setup-speculation of that nature without knowing the mod's preferences at all. Literally anyone else here would be better suited to that speculation than me, someone who's never played a game run by (or including) Cantrip.
I'm pretty sure I understand what you're asking. No, I'm not a Cop. My reason for preferring Wheat before Shinichi (all else being equal between the two, of course) is at the bottom of #1192.
@eternal, I forget if you've said or not already, but do you feel like a crier and a neighborizor are mechanically dissonant? Because if so, I feel like that's a significantly better reason to lynch Shinichi over Wheat.
Actually a thought just came to my mind...I'm going to try and phrase this so you understand without saying too much: You feel strongly about wheat needing to be a priority, is your reason more speculative than it is grounded? Because if it's grounded I am willing to trust you on this one. If you don't understand what I'm asking, then never mind, I don't want to say more.
I don't like to do setup-speculation of that nature without knowing the mod's preferences at all. Literally anyone else here would be better suited to that speculation than me, someone who's never played a game run by (or including) Cantrip.
Fair enough.
Quote from EternalLurker »
I'm pretty sure I understand what you're asking. No, I'm not a Cop. My reason for preferring Wheat before Shinichi (all else being equal between the two, of course) is at the bottom of #1192.
Thats actually not what I was asking, but it does likely answer my question. Probably would have been better had you just said no. I don't want to discuss this further right now.
To be completely honest, I'm actually more confident in a Shinichi lynch than a WG lynch. Proph's defense of WG is really suspicious, but I don't think this is his scum game. He's also one to buss, and I have never seen scum (from what I remember) defend a lynch of a partner so surely. On the other hand, now that I've moved past reading Shinichi based off of meta, his reads are not solid at all. Yes, he has memory issues, but the only reason they're so prevalent now is because he's not reading anybody strongly, which at this point, is really unlikely for town.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
When the point of no return appears, it is already behind you.
Starting my catch up. And my first thought is: I think I'm back in the communication roles being a dichotomy camp. And thus think Shin is the only lynch that makes any sense today. And the fact that Proph isn't banging that drum with Shadow makes me significantly less confident in his being town. I don't know Cantrip or his mod style super well, but I know mtgs reviewers are strict and love to really balance things out. Also it just makes sense to me, why have both?
I also haven't seen a case that I find remotely compelling laying out the case for town!Shin at all. There isn't a defense other than he wouldn't be so inconsistent as scum, which is silly, because Shin's original defense was he's always inconsistent as both alignments. The utter lack of a stance on anything and dodging of almost every question about his reads are just so damning in my eyes.
Do I think there is a chance WG is scum? Yes, but I'm so much more confident that Shin is I'm never voting WG first here.
@EternalLurker I can confirm Shadow talked about his reasoning on Rhand in the chat and it was wanting to wait and see if the mechanical focus continued. He liked the early signs and wanted to see if Rhand could keep it up before moving his vote in.
Starting my catch up. And my first thought is: I think I'm back in the communication roles being a dichotomy camp. And thus think Shin is the only lynch that makes any sense today. And the fact that Proph isn't banging that drum with Shadow makes me significantly less confident in his being town.
Soooo...Proph not being hard enough on Shinichi is a scum-tell for you, even though he has actually been pushing on Shinichi for a couple pages now? And yet when it comes to Wheat, who's backing Shinichi with vastly less evidence (read: none) and far harder than Proph (who's mostly distancing himself), you only "think there is a chance" that Wheat is scum?
I'm not seeing the consistency between your Proph and your Wheat reads here.
Vaimes, Shadow, and Mind/EternalLurker have been town reads for me since D1. Vaimes for his early action and back and forth with Shin and Kpcaca. If either were to flip scum Vaimes becomes very close to lock town. Shadow felt town in our neighborhood. If Shin were to flip town though I'd lynch Shadow in a heartbeat. Mind to me was the second towniest player D1. I liked his interactions with Terry and Roger. Lurker has come in and been the driving force pushing WG and Shin offering compelling points.
Vaimes
Shadow
Lurker
Only 7 left! Which isn't bad, but I think we can narrow it down further.
I had some doubts on Terry D1, but it turned when he felt less like his camelot game D2. The only thing that would make me strongly go after terry would be Shadow flipping scum as I told him what I was scum reading Terry for. RE I also think is more likely to be town based on her (RE I'm sorry I can't remember your gender, I know I've been told before) reaction to Terry's trap. That just didn't feel like scum going for an easy lynch. At all. I also had a strong town read on QH D1 so they're in this group, but they only have like 23 posts this game. Despite the length, that isn't actually enough to get a read on them, so down they come.
Terry
RE
QH
And that leaves us with: Shinichi, Wheat_Grinder, AtheistGod, and Proph. I will be shocked if there aren't at least 2 scum in that group. As outlined elsewhere Shin is my favorite and I'll spend the rest of the evening reading the other three. Anyway color wall looks like this:
Town
Starting my catch up. And my first thought is: I think I'm back in the communication roles being a dichotomy camp. And thus think Shin is the only lynch that makes any sense today. And the fact that Proph isn't banging that drum with Shadow makes me significantly less confident in his being town.
Soooo...Proph not being hard enough on Shinichi is a scum-tell for you, even though he has actually been pushing on Shinichi for a couple pages now? And yet when it comes to Wheat, who's backing Shinichi with vastly less evidence (read: none) and far harder than Proph (who's mostly distancing himself), you only "think there is a chance" that Wheat is scum?
I'm not seeing the consistency between your Proph and your Wheat reads here.
Thanks for the SL night-chat confirmation.
It's not about the push, it's about the content of it. Proph is someone who'd I'd expect to be talking more about the mechanical dichotomy aspect of it as town. He hasn't really been doing that. Until Shin flips I want to try and avoid people based on how they were reading him, but here it's the method more than the read itself that is giving me red flags.
Iunno, I said I wouldn't comment on the setup mechanics thing, but I gotta say that this train you're all riding really feels like a red herring to me. Neighborizer + Crier would actually make a great Town combo, after all: Crier can publically reveal things said in the private chat, without letting scum know who's in the neighborhood.
I still think Shadow is Town and Shinichi is Mafia, but the setup has nothing to do with my beliefs on that matter.
Your list otherwise mostly mirrors mine, with a few edits.
I have RE (moderate Town for you) and Shadow (strong Town for you) swapped. RE is practically lock-Town to me from her behavior. Although I suppose I already made that clear by reading her not only as Town but specifically as Vanilla Town, which she then verified. (Incidentally, given that we know Vanilla Cops exist, there's no way she claims Vanilla Townie while being a scum power role, so at worst she's a Goon even if I'm horribly wrong about her.) I'm not gonna argue with you on Shadow, though: he's still mostly a Town-read to me, even if I'm not as convinced as you are, and you've obviously had more interaction due to the night-chat than I have.
And I have AG as Town, in large part for giving Vaimes the Vanilla Cop ability. Scum might've done that too, certainly, but I think scum probably gives it to you (Grapefruit) in that situation because you were the most widely Town-read player, so that'd be the best way to get free Town cred. Hell, Shinichi, who we're both scum-reading, even admitted that he would've given you the ability if he'd had it.
Point understood about Proph; I don't know his meta. I also don't really take meta into account on reads, so eh, but I won't generally stop others from doing so.
Iunno, I said I wouldn't comment on the setup mechanics thing, but I gotta say that this train you're all riding really feels like a red herring to me. Neighborizer + Crier would actually make a great Town combo, after all: Crier can publically reveal things said in the private chat, without letting scum know who's in the neighborhood.
I get that they could make cool plays if they found each other, but the odds of that are pretty low.
I still think Shadow is Town and Shinichi is Mafia, but the setup has nothing to do with my beliefs on that matter.
Your list otherwise mostly mirrors mine, with a few edits.
I have RE (moderate Town for you) and Shadow (strong Town for you) swapped. RE is practically lock-Town to me from her behavior. Although I suppose I already made that clear by reading her not only as Town but specifically as Vanilla Town, which she then verified. (Incidentally, given that we know Vanilla Cops exist, there's no way she claims Vanilla Townie while being a scum power role, so at worst she's a Goon even if I'm horribly wrong about her.) I'm not gonna argue with you on Shadow, though: he's still mostly a Town-read to me, even if I'm not as convinced as you are, and you've obviously had more interaction due to the night-chat than I have.
The vanilla claim is a good point, but I'm not sure it's as ironclad as you think it is. If AG is scum then the point is moot and they have a relatively small pool to RB into to try and stop the investigation. But yeah, that does make RE seem a bit more likely.
And I have AG as Town, in large part for giving Vaimes the Vanilla Cop ability. Scum might've done that too, certainly, but I think scum probably gives it to you (Grapefruit) in that situation because you were the most widely Town-read player, so that'd be the best way to get free Town cred. Hell, Shinichi, who we're both scum-reading, even admitted that he would've given you the ability if he'd had it.
Vaimes was the second most town read player in the game. The only two people really scum reading him were Wheat and Kpcaca both of whom you're scum reading. I think that giving it to vaimes or myself is pretty much equal.
Point understood about Proph; I don't know his meta. I also don't really take meta into account on reads, so eh, but I won't generally stop others from doing so.
Proph is a tinkerer and a designer at heart, that's why it's strange to me he's said so little about it. But I won't pressure you to use meta.
If AG is scum then the point is moot and they have a relatively small pool to RB into to try and stop the investigation.
Quibble here: yeah, it's moot if AG is scum, but they have a pretttty large pool to RB against the investigation. AG's power-gifting thing is a Day ability, so it shouldn't be RB-able, and he can just give it to anyone at random: even if he gives it to scum, they'll have to announce their results or he'll out them as having hidden it, now that he no longer has to hide that he has the ability.
By the way, I totally forgot to clarify, but...
@shadowlancerx: Your neighborizing is permanent, right? I kinda assumed it was, but I just realized that, so far as I can tell, this hasn't been explicitly stated. It's not just that you choose one person each night with whom to chat, is it?
If AG is scum then the point is moot and they have a relatively small pool to RB into to try and stop the investigation.
Quibble here: yeah, it's moot if AG is scum, but they have a pretttty large pool to RB against the investigation. AG's power-gifting thing is a Day ability, so it shouldn't be RB-able, and he can just give it to anyone at random: even if he gives it to scum, they'll have to announce their results or he'll out them as having hidden it, now that he no longer has to hide that he has the ability.
By the way, I totally forgot to clarify, but...
@shadowlancerx: Your neighborizing is permanent, right? I kinda assumed it was, but I just realized that, so far as I can tell, this hasn't been explicitly stated. It's not just that you choose one person each night with whom to chat, is it?
The latter, I choose someone each day and chat with them for the following night only.
Your ability to Town-read literally everything Wheat says continues to be quite impressive. Care to explain how an unprompted threat to self-vote -- which, if he were Town, would simply be knowingly mislynching a Townie and thus incredibly anti-Town -- strikes you as a Townie thing to do nonetheless?
It's a transparent attempt to get pity points with feigned exasperation, same as he was doing yesterday when bemoaning the fact that his blind tunnel of Vaimes wasn't taking off into a wagon.
There are plenty of times that letting yourself be lynched is of use, but threatening to do so unprompted is a pathetically clear play to people's emotions.
I am sticking my head out for Wheat here. I nearly lost my last game I played because I had doubts about my townreads and let tunnel happy townies push me around. I acknowledge that I could be pocketed by Wheat here but I had some talks with other players after the game ended and they said that not sticking up for someone you believe is town prevents you from truly carrying the town.
Even though what Wheat is doing is anti town if he is town, it's also a pretty townie emotional response. He is genuinely exasperated by you. I do not think he would be if he was scum.
I can explain this better when I am not on mobile but I'm trying to deny the scum mislynches. I think if Wheat is town here, the scum need to mislynch him in order to win the game.
translation: "looks like it's definitely Shinichi or me today so time to hop on the wagon"
Yeah, I'd reeeeally prefer Wheat before Shin today, y'all.
Town and scum would both react that way to the described situation. Everyone should vote in self defense. We can debate the appeal to emotion being scummy or not (I'd lean yes, but wheat's been doing that all game) but the vote itself is pretty normal.
Exasperation is not a uniquely Townie trait. If he's scum, he's just as exasperated that I keep pushing people to target him before Shinichi when most people seem to prefer the reverse order.
And "scum need to mislynch [Wheat] in order to win"? ******* what? Wheat's been tunneling Vaimes and that's basically much it for his "contributions" all game. The only way that a Wheat lynch is more useful to scum than any other lynch is if Vaimes is actually scum, in which case he slips off our radar almost permanently with Wheat's death. So the only way your statement even begins to make sense is if you think Vaimes is scum.
Is that really what you're trying to tell me you believe?
@Grapefruit: Not when he's been fighting tooth and nail for Shinichi-as-Town all game, no, it's not normal. A self-defense vote on a scum-read or even a null-read is logical. Turning around and lynching someone you've adamantly maintained was Town all game, rather than simply staying on the sidelines, isn't remotely Townie.
If he were actually Town and believed his Shinichi-as-Town read, he would either stick to his guns or at least stay away and let us vote Shin. The latter is still fine for his surviving the day. Jumping onto the wagon makes him look scummy as hell, such that if Shinichi is indeed Town -- as he claims to believe -- then he's guaranteed to be lynched the next day anyway. It's not self-defense if you're just prolonging the inevitable.
The only way this works to save him is if Shinichi is scum, in which case he looks good for voting scum. But he can't take this option expecting that outcome if he legitimately believes Shinichi is Town.
So this is a pretty cut-and-dry case of either bussing Mafia or giving up on a previously pocketed Townie. Either possibility makes Wheat scum.
So this is a pretty cut-and-dry case of either bussing Mafia or giving up on a previously pocketed Townie. Either possibility makes Wheat scum.
I think you're town which makes this stupid double lynch you want to set up even worse for playing against your win-con
Furthermore it cements what I've been saying all along that even if something comes along and proves wrong the stupid reads you keep having you're going to keep on riding that train all the way to our loss
So I'm not going to put up for your antagonism when I'm merely giving up on stopping you from hitting the iceberg directly in front of us, and you're the one at the helm shouting "FULL SPEED AHEAD, NO TURNS"
@Grapefruit: Not when he's been fighting tooth and nail for Shinichi-as-Town all game, no, it's not normal. A self-defense vote on a scum-read or even a null-read is logical. Turning around and lynching someone you've adamantly maintained was Town all game, rather than simply staying on the sidelines, isn't remotely Townie.
If he were actually Town and believed his Shinichi-as-Town read, he would either stick to his guns or at least stay away and let us vote Shin. The latter is still fine for his surviving the day. Jumping onto the wagon makes him look scummy as hell, such that if Shinichi is indeed Town -- as he claims to believe -- then he's guaranteed to be lynched the next day anyway. It's not self-defense if you're just prolonging the inevitable.
The only way this works to save him is if Shinichi is scum, in which case he looks good for voting scum. But he can't take this option expecting that outcome if he legitimately believes Shinichi is Town.
So this is a pretty cut-and-dry case of either bussing Mafia or giving up on a previously pocketed Townie. Either possibility makes Wheat scum.
I just don't agree with that. I think you're a bit too far down your tunnel there. Even if you've been defending someone all game you are never as sure of their alignment and when it's a 1v1 (which as you pointed out it pretty much is so staying on the sidelines isn't an option) of course you should vote the other person. Wheat had been pushing for other options, just not getting traction. I know you believe they are scum, but I don't see this action as scummy.
Really don't think it's something he should be townread for, Proph. I think EL made fair points early on, and WG basically said "don't care not listening" or w/e. Almost everyone gets frustrated at pressure, town or scum. And threatening to self-vote is strongly town? Reeeally?
I think that Wheat's exasperation is real and it comes from a townie mindset. Exasperation can come from scum, yes, but I get the "you're wrong and I want to prove that you're wrong" type of exasperation from Wheat, rather than the malicious kind where they're just focused on defending themself and nothing else.
I'm really tired right now (spent today in Seattle eating out) so I'll go more in-depth into this tomorrow. Do not lynch Wheat before then.
Even if you've been defending someone all game you are never as sure of their alignment and when it's a 1v1 (which as you pointed out it pretty much is so staying on the sidelines isn't an option) of course you should vote the other person.
But he is sure of Shinichi's alignment, or is pretending to be. His entire alleged reason for voting Shinichi was to "prove" to me that Shinichi is Town. So that counter makes no sense.
His action is flat-out anti-Town no matter what, since he's claiming to believe that Shinichi is Town while voting for Shin rather than for any of his scum reads.
I feel like EL is tunneling Wheat as hard as he's accusing Wheat of tunneling onto Vaimes. I also feel like if we Lynch WG and he flips town, EL is just going to be like "Oh Well" and start tunneling on someone else. I'm just getting some bad vibes from this situation. I need to step back and read some things for my self.
I'd rather lynch Wheat before Shinichi, but I've already stated that I'll switch to Shinichi if it looks like that's necessary to avoid a No Lynch before deadline. If that results in Shinichi flipping Town, I'll most definitely reconsider Wheat's alignment.
So, no, I'm not tunneling. He's just being scummy in the vast majority of posts he's made, and I'm not giving him a free pass for that as Proph seems to love doing.
I'd rather lynch Wheat before Shinichi, but I've already stated that I'll switch to Shinichi if it looks like that's necessary to avoid a No Lynch before deadline. If that results in Shinichi flipping Town, I'll most definitely reconsider Wheat's alignment.
So, no, I'm not tunneling. He's just being scummy in the vast majority of posts he's made, and I'm not giving him a free pass for that as Proph seems to love doing.
Here's a problem I have with Wheat: He refuses to Lynch certain people and for reason I don't really follow.
I think that Shinichi flipping reads is consistent with him being town based on how he's been playing so far. He's been very scatterbrained and I think if he was scum he'd be more careful to keep his reads consistent to avoid exactly this sort of pressure.
I won't be participating in a Shinichi lynch.
This just doesn't make sense because two posts later he votes for Shin. He is convinced Shin is scum for most of the rest of the game, then he says he won't vote him, then he votes him.
He's sure AG, RE and Vaimes are scum and he also calls both the Kpaca and Shin wagon's mislynches in #1128. This is tough because in my mind I can totally see that as a scum team, but I think the way the trap was nerfed by Cantrip kind of suggests this is not the case. I'm just talking things out here.
Ok, in my book, even though I'm not liking EL's tunnel on Wheat and the way RE has been playing, I'm pretty confident that EL and RE are both town. There were town-slips that I'm not going to reveal at the moment.
I feel like AG and Vaimes are likely town for [REDACTED].
That leaves a Lynch pool of WG, Shin, Proph, Grape, Shadow and QH. I'm going to need to go in more depth to each of them to see who I should push.
vote: Shinichi
I really feel this is for the best...
Why?
The chances of Shinichi and WG being scum are pretty high, but Shinichi is scummier. It'd be one thing if we knew for sure that WG and Shinichi were scum, but since we don't, I'd rather go for Shinichi.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
When the point of no return appears, it is already behind you.
vote: Shinichi
I really feel this is for the best...
Why?
The chances of Shinichi and WG being scum are pretty high, but Shinichi is scummier. It'd be one thing if we knew for sure that WG and Shinichi were scum, but since we don't, I'd rather go for Shinichi.
Most of the game WG has been pushing Shin scum, why do you say they are both scum?
Most of the game WG has been pushing Vaimes-as-scum and hailing Shinichi as a paragon of Townieness regardless of his actual behavior. He even literally said in one post that Shinichi and Vaimes did the same thing but that he considered it a scum-tell on Vaimes while continuing to Town-read Shin.
And yes, I agree that Wheat is the better option. Agree enough, in fact, that I'ma go back to where I was before peer pressure...Vote: Wheat_Grinder. I'll definitely help push/hammer a Shin lynch if we get close to deadline and Wheat's not happening, but I'd really prefer making WG today's priority.
Right, I knew the math seemed off. Thanks Proph. Yeah, I'll switch before deadline to hammer Shinichi if necessary, but I don't see a need to rush the Day. Unlike Day One, we're getting useful interactions out of this Day.
vote: Shinichi
I really feel this is for the best...
Why?
The chances of Shinichi and WG being scum are pretty high, but Shinichi is scummier. It'd be one thing if we knew for sure that WG and Shinichi were scum, but since we don't, I'd rather go for Shinichi.
Most of the game WG has been pushing Shin scum, why do you say they are both scum?
I've had trouble buying both of their reads. Also I think there's plenty of room for alignment between them.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
When the point of no return appears, it is already behind you.
Dangit. Votecount is fixed. Sorry for the confusion.
If you could put votes/unvotes on their own line, it would be appreciated for ease of tracking (but it's obviously not mandatory; I'll try to be more thorough).
It is still Day 2, and the lynch threshold has not been reached. Carry on discussing how best to kill each other.
I still need Shinichi's explanation of how he arrived to his read on shadow. That does not make ANY sense to me.
Quote from EL »
Uh, cuz he's protecting his scum-buddy?
I find it pretty doubtful we've struck gold and Shinichi and Wheat are BOTH scum. I think Shinichi is probably likely scum, but Wheat? I don't really think so.
Quote from EL »
Well, take them out already, then? QH already explained why AG is probably not scum. (It's not a lock as he describes, because scum certainly can give the ability to non-scum for Town cred, but it's a strong reason to Town-read in the absence of other evidence.)
I've certainly seen scum inventors have a clause on them that they can only give abilities to town. Plus, it's a vanilla cop ability that AG gave out. If AG is scum, then I think a much stronger use of that ability is to give it to town so you can pocket them, rather than giving it to a scumbuddy.
Quote from EL »
...Okay, this is just bull*****. If Shinichi flips Town, Wheat is cleared because he was protecting a Townie, and if Shinichi is scum, Wheat is cleared because, yet again, you claim "that would be TOO SCUMMY FOR SCUM". You're just protecting Wheat under every outcome. No. Stop with that *****. "Too scummy for scum" is not a ******* thing.
If Wheat and Shinichi are both scum then I think Wheat would have pulled the bus trigger on Shinichi long ago. I think Wheat genuinely does not know Shinichi's alignment.
Quote from EL »
Yo Vaimes, just cuz I'm Town-reading you at the moment doesn't give you a free pass to vote without backing it up. The last you had to say about a vote target was that you'd wanted to vote Shinichi D1, implying that you'd be cool with a Shin vote D2. Now you're switching to Wheat without a single word of explanation, when the last time you talked about him was to agree with Proph's defense of Wheat. And your vote had previously been on RE with, again, no explanation for the vote.
Wanna start giving reasons for your votes, please? (-.-)
I like this post from EL, but if that is true, WHERE ARE THE SCUM.
Catching up in a bit.
I'm pretty sure I understand what you're asking. No, I'm not a Cop. My reason for preferring Wheat before Shinichi (all else being equal between the two, of course) is at the bottom of #1192.
I also haven't seen a case that I find remotely compelling laying out the case for town!Shin at all. There isn't a defense other than he wouldn't be so inconsistent as scum, which is silly, because Shin's original defense was he's always inconsistent as both alignments. The utter lack of a stance on anything and dodging of almost every question about his reads are just so damning in my eyes.
Do I think there is a chance WG is scum? Yes, but I'm so much more confident that Shin is I'm never voting WG first here.
@EternalLurker I can confirm Shadow talked about his reasoning on Rhand in the chat and it was wanting to wait and see if the mechanical focus continued. He liked the early signs and wanted to see if Rhand could keep it up before moving his vote in.
I'm not seeing the consistency between your Proph and your Wheat reads here.
Thanks for the SL night-chat confirmation.
Grapefruit
Rhand
Vaimes, Shadow, and Mind/EternalLurker have been town reads for me since D1. Vaimes for his early action and back and forth with Shin and Kpcaca. If either were to flip scum Vaimes becomes very close to lock town. Shadow felt town in our neighborhood. If Shin were to flip town though I'd lynch Shadow in a heartbeat. Mind to me was the second towniest player D1. I liked his interactions with Terry and Roger. Lurker has come in and been the driving force pushing WG and Shin offering compelling points.
Vaimes
Shadow
Lurker
Only 7 left! Which isn't bad, but I think we can narrow it down further.
I had some doubts on Terry D1, but it turned when he felt less like his camelot game D2. The only thing that would make me strongly go after terry would be Shadow flipping scum as I told him what I was scum reading Terry for. RE I also think is more likely to be town based on her (RE I'm sorry I can't remember your gender, I know I've been told before) reaction to Terry's trap. That just didn't feel like scum going for an easy lynch. At all. I also had a strong town read on QH D1 so they're in this group, but they only have like 23 posts this game. Despite the length, that isn't actually enough to get a read on them, so down they come.
Terry
RE
QH
And that leaves us with: Shinichi, Wheat_Grinder, AtheistGod, and Proph. I will be shocked if there aren't at least 2 scum in that group. As outlined elsewhere Shin is my favorite and I'll spend the rest of the evening reading the other three. Anyway color wall looks like this:
Town
Grape
Rhand
Vaimes
Lurker
Shadow
Terry
RE
QH
Proph
AG
WG
Shin
It's not about the push, it's about the content of it. Proph is someone who'd I'd expect to be talking more about the mechanical dichotomy aspect of it as town. He hasn't really been doing that. Until Shin flips I want to try and avoid people based on how they were reading him, but here it's the method more than the read itself that is giving me red flags.
I still think Shadow is Town and Shinichi is Mafia, but the setup has nothing to do with my beliefs on that matter.
Your list otherwise mostly mirrors mine, with a few edits.
I have RE (moderate Town for you) and Shadow (strong Town for you) swapped. RE is practically lock-Town to me from her behavior. Although I suppose I already made that clear by reading her not only as Town but specifically as Vanilla Town, which she then verified. (Incidentally, given that we know Vanilla Cops exist, there's no way she claims Vanilla Townie while being a scum power role, so at worst she's a Goon even if I'm horribly wrong about her.) I'm not gonna argue with you on Shadow, though: he's still mostly a Town-read to me, even if I'm not as convinced as you are, and you've obviously had more interaction due to the night-chat than I have.
And I have AG as Town, in large part for giving Vaimes the Vanilla Cop ability. Scum might've done that too, certainly, but I think scum probably gives it to you (Grapefruit) in that situation because you were the most widely Town-read player, so that'd be the best way to get free Town cred. Hell, Shinichi, who we're both scum-reading, even admitted that he would've given you the ability if he'd had it.
Point understood about Proph; I don't know his meta. I also don't really take meta into account on reads, so eh, but I won't generally stop others from doing so.
I get that they could make cool plays if they found each other, but the odds of that are pretty low.
The vanilla claim is a good point, but I'm not sure it's as ironclad as you think it is. If AG is scum then the point is moot and they have a relatively small pool to RB into to try and stop the investigation. But yeah, that does make RE seem a bit more likely.
Vaimes was the second most town read player in the game. The only two people really scum reading him were Wheat and Kpcaca both of whom you're scum reading. I think that giving it to vaimes or myself is pretty much equal.
Proph is a tinkerer and a designer at heart, that's why it's strange to me he's said so little about it. But I won't pressure you to use meta.
By the way, I totally forgot to clarify, but...
@shadowlancerx: Your neighborizing is permanent, right? I kinda assumed it was, but I just realized that, so far as I can tell, this hasn't been explicitly stated. It's not just that you choose one person each night with whom to chat, is it?
my desire to win is now less than my desire prove a point to EL who has been acting way too "holier than thou" on concepts he doesn't even understand.
Unvote, Vote: Shinichi
"too scummy to be scum isn't valid" my ass
Yeah, I'd reeeeally prefer Wheat before Shin today, y'all.
honestly i'm just as happy to vote myself to prove the point.
More when I am not on mobile, but i think wheat is genuinely frustrated at EL's questioning.
It's a transparent attempt to get pity points with feigned exasperation, same as he was doing yesterday when bemoaning the fact that his blind tunnel of Vaimes wasn't taking off into a wagon.
There are plenty of times that letting yourself be lynched is of use, but threatening to do so unprompted is a pathetically clear play to people's emotions.
Even though what Wheat is doing is anti town if he is town, it's also a pretty townie emotional response. He is genuinely exasperated by you. I do not think he would be if he was scum.
I can explain this better when I am not on mobile but I'm trying to deny the scum mislynches. I think if Wheat is town here, the scum need to mislynch him in order to win the game.
Town and scum would both react that way to the described situation. Everyone should vote in self defense. We can debate the appeal to emotion being scummy or not (I'd lean yes, but wheat's been doing that all game) but the vote itself is pretty normal.
Exasperation is not a uniquely Townie trait. If he's scum, he's just as exasperated that I keep pushing people to target him before Shinichi when most people seem to prefer the reverse order.
And "scum need to mislynch [Wheat] in order to win"? ******* what? Wheat's been tunneling Vaimes and that's basically much it for his "contributions" all game. The only way that a Wheat lynch is more useful to scum than any other lynch is if Vaimes is actually scum, in which case he slips off our radar almost permanently with Wheat's death. So the only way your statement even begins to make sense is if you think Vaimes is scum.
Is that really what you're trying to tell me you believe?
@Grapefruit: Not when he's been fighting tooth and nail for Shinichi-as-Town all game, no, it's not normal. A self-defense vote on a scum-read or even a null-read is logical. Turning around and lynching someone you've adamantly maintained was Town all game, rather than simply staying on the sidelines, isn't remotely Townie.
If he were actually Town and believed his Shinichi-as-Town read, he would either stick to his guns or at least stay away and let us vote Shin. The latter is still fine for his surviving the day. Jumping onto the wagon makes him look scummy as hell, such that if Shinichi is indeed Town -- as he claims to believe -- then he's guaranteed to be lynched the next day anyway. It's not self-defense if you're just prolonging the inevitable.
The only way this works to save him is if Shinichi is scum, in which case he looks good for voting scum. But he can't take this option expecting that outcome if he legitimately believes Shinichi is Town.
So this is a pretty cut-and-dry case of either bussing Mafia or giving up on a previously pocketed Townie. Either possibility makes Wheat scum.
yeah but see then you post things like this:
I think you're town which makes this stupid double lynch you want to set up even worse for playing against your win-con
Furthermore it cements what I've been saying all along that even if something comes along and proves wrong the stupid reads you keep having you're going to keep on riding that train all the way to our loss
So I'm not going to put up for your antagonism when I'm merely giving up on stopping you from hitting the iceberg directly in front of us, and you're the one at the helm shouting "FULL SPEED AHEAD, NO TURNS"
I just don't agree with that. I think you're a bit too far down your tunnel there. Even if you've been defending someone all game you are never as sure of their alignment and when it's a 1v1 (which as you pointed out it pretty much is so staying on the sidelines isn't an option) of course you should vote the other person. Wheat had been pushing for other options, just not getting traction. I know you believe they are scum, but I don't see this action as scummy.
Really don't think it's something he should be townread for, Proph. I think EL made fair points early on, and WG basically said "don't care not listening" or w/e. Almost everyone gets frustrated at pressure, town or scum. And threatening to self-vote is strongly town? Reeeally?
I'm really tired right now (spent today in Seattle eating out) so I'll go more in-depth into this tomorrow. Do not lynch Wheat before then.
Man, is it somehow too much to ask that Town players do what's best for Town?
But he is sure of Shinichi's alignment, or is pretending to be. His entire alleged reason for voting Shinichi was to "prove" to me that Shinichi is Town. So that counter makes no sense.
His action is flat-out anti-Town no matter what, since he's claiming to believe that Shinichi is Town while voting for Shin rather than for any of his scum reads.
So, no, I'm not tunneling. He's just being scummy in the vast majority of posts he's made, and I'm not giving him a free pass for that as Proph seems to love doing.
This just doesn't make sense because two posts later he votes for Shin. He is convinced Shin is scum for most of the rest of the game, then he says he won't vote him, then he votes him.
He's sure AG, RE and Vaimes are scum and he also calls both the Kpaca and Shin wagon's mislynches in #1128. This is tough because in my mind I can totally see that as a scum team, but I think the way the trap was nerfed by Cantrip kind of suggests this is not the case. I'm just talking things out here.
I really feel this is for the best...
I feel like AG and Vaimes are likely town for [REDACTED].
That leaves a Lynch pool of WG, Shin, Proph, Grape, Shadow and QH. I'm going to need to go in more depth to each of them to see who I should push.
The chances of Shinichi and WG being scum are pretty high, but Shinichi is scummier. It'd be one thing if we knew for sure that WG and Shinichi were scum, but since we don't, I'd rather go for Shinichi.
Most of the game WG has been pushing Vaimes-as-scum and hailing Shinichi as a paragon of Townieness regardless of his actual behavior. He even literally said in one post that Shinichi and Vaimes did the same thing but that he considered it a scum-tell on Vaimes while continuing to Town-read Shin.
To fetch a pail of acid
Jack fell in and Jill did grin,
And then the well was placid.
Votecount 2.4 - With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.
Shinichi (5): shadowlancerx, Prophylaxis, Grapefruit21, Wheat_Grinder, RE1031
Wheat_Grinder (4): Quickhoodies, AtheistGod, EternalLurker, Vaimes
Not Voting: Shinichi, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
Please inform me of any errors.
Deadline is Friday, July 21st, at 9am MDT.
RE, were you aware that you were hammering when you posted?
@Cantripmancer
I've had trouble buying both of their reads. Also I think there's plenty of room for alignment between them.
NO I WAS NOT
But it a mistake, what a relief.
If you could put votes/unvotes on their own line, it would be appreciated for ease of tracking (but it's obviously not mandatory; I'll try to be more thorough).
It is still Day 2, and the lynch threshold has not been reached. Carry on discussing how best to kill each other.
I find it pretty doubtful we've struck gold and Shinichi and Wheat are BOTH scum. I think Shinichi is probably likely scum, but Wheat? I don't really think so.
I've certainly seen scum inventors have a clause on them that they can only give abilities to town. Plus, it's a vanilla cop ability that AG gave out. If AG is scum, then I think a much stronger use of that ability is to give it to town so you can pocket them, rather than giving it to a scumbuddy.
If Wheat and Shinichi are both scum then I think Wheat would have pulled the bus trigger on Shinichi long ago. I think Wheat genuinely does not know Shinichi's alignment.
I like this post from EL, but if that is true, WHERE ARE THE SCUM.