Iso is scum. He's the one I was thinking of when I considered the possibility of scum gambitting. Through sheer randomness, the chance of Iso being on the Goon/Goon mafia team is twice that of him being the bodyguard. I'd put the chance that Iso goes for the gambit in these circumstances above 50%, especially after I called attention to the bodyguard. That means it's more likely for an Iso claiming bodyguard to be scum than it is for him to be the actual bodyguard.
You're using midway probability to AFFIRM something. "The odds of a Bodyguard being in the game is 50% (This is truth, ok), so the odds of scum falseclaiming it is higher than 50% (Assumption #1. This depends on the scumteam). Since the probability of Iso falseclaiming something is greater than most players (Assumption #2. I agree, but it's not conclusive), therefore Iso is scum." You're jumping through hoops to force a point that, BY DEFINITION, can't be proved. There are too many moving parts in this statement for you, at that point of the game, to flat-out state Iso was scum. You go on additional points in an attempt to prove yours:
On top of Iso just being more likely to false claim bodyguard than be the actual bodyguard, the night actions line up with scum-Iso. Iso was probably worried that GJ was cozying up to him too much and therefore wanted to NK him.
I've already debunked this. GJ was nowhere near Iso D1, so this point is false.
This is very similar to Unseen University Night 1 with scum-Iso calling the NK in on Wessel.
Meta-based argument from not only another game, but another player as well. A statement that you never bothered to explain, btw. What in it is similar? How is this even valid considering that your previous point regarding GJ is moot?
Also, Iso's claim of protecting GJ but then being roleblocked doesn't make sense. Why would the scum kill GJ and roleblock Iso? Ophidia claimed vig day 1, and Seppel was drawing attention to himself claiming doctor. Seppel was probably trying to draw the protective role to himself and I could see the mafia roleblock Iso if they intended to off Seppel. But they didn't go after Seppel, they went after GJ. Iso would have us believe the roleblocker just ignored Ophidia and Seppel during that?
GJ's kill makes sense because he's a strong player that was more active and/or not viewed as badly as other strong ones. Seppel had drawn early fire so it wouldn't make sense. Iso and Vaimes, if they're town, haven't said much at that point.
On Seppel: with the way Seppel was behaving, he would NEVER draw protection. Not ever. Protecting Seppel meant zero sense, so GJ was naturally the target for actions on player strenght alone (as evidenced by the scumteam's NK choice on N1). From a scum point of view, if Iso is town either him or Seppel also were naturally the targets for actions on player strenght alone. "Kill StrongPlayer #1, RB StrongPlayer #2, ignore StrongPlayer #3 because he has his own problems right now." What's so wrong about this line of play? More over, what's wrong about this line of play if the scumteam noticed Ophidia was the vig eager to shoot Seppel, as for example, you did? So, again, your point doesn't make sense. You're trying too hard to present probabilities and shallow logic as if they were conclusive evidence.
Again, with the way it went, that's probably bussing, but still. Iso and zomg can be reread overNight. You're scum regardless.
Iso is scum. He's the one I was thinking of when I considered the possibility of scum gambitting. Through sheer randomness, the chance of Iso being on the Goon/Goon mafia team is twice that of him being the bodyguard. I'd put the chance that Iso goes for the gambit in these circumstances above 50%, especially after I called attention to the bodyguard. That means it's more likely for an Iso claiming bodyguard to be scum than it is for him to be the actual bodyguard.
You're using midway probability to AFFIRM something. "The odds of a Bodyguard being in the game is 50% (This is truth, ok), so the odds of scum falseclaiming it is higher than 50% (Assumption #1. This depends on the scumteam). Since the probability of Iso falseclaiming something is greater than most players (Assumption #2. I agree, but it's not conclusive), therefore Iso is scum." You're jumping through hoops to force a point that, BY DEFINITION, can't be proved. There are too many moving parts in this statement for you, at that point of the game, to flat-out state Iso was scum.
Those weren't the assumptions I made. The probability argument was this: There is roughly a 50% chance of a bodyguard being in the game (technically 3 VT flips makes this slightly less than 50%). Similarly there is roughly a 50% chance of there not being a bodyguard in the game. There is one slot (bodyguard) in that slightly less than 50% that Iso can truthfully claim bodyguard from. There are 2 slots (the 2 goons) in the no bodyguard set up. Assumption 1: Iso is more than 50% to go for this gambit if given the chance. If that assumption is true than P(Iso=scum|Iso claims bodyguard) > P(Iso=town|Iso claims bodyguard). Iso did claim bodyguard so that becomes P(Iso=scum) > P(Iso=town). There was only 1 assumption. The only moving part is "How likely is Iso to gambit as a member of a Goon/Goon mafia team?".
On top of Iso just being more likely to false claim bodyguard than be the actual bodyguard, the night actions line up with scum-Iso. Iso was probably worried that GJ was cozying up to him too much and therefore wanted to NK him.
I've already debunked this. GJ was nowhere near Iso D1, so this point is false.
This is very similar to Unseen University Night 1 with scum-Iso calling the NK in on Wessel.
Meta-based argument from not only another game, but another player as well. A statement that you never bothered to explain, btw. What in it is similar? How is this even valid considering that your previous point regarding GJ is moot?
Iso was scum. Wessel was the cop. Wessel had attacked Iso early but backed off. Towards the end of day 1 he said he liked Iso. Wessel was suspicious of Iso, Iso figured he was suspicious and directed the NK at Wessel. The relevant player is scum-Iso and how he goes about making N1 NKs.
Also, Iso's claim of protecting GJ but then being roleblocked doesn't make sense. Why would the scum kill GJ and roleblock Iso? Ophidia claimed vig day 1, and Seppel was drawing attention to himself claiming doctor. Seppel was probably trying to draw the protective role to himself and I could see the mafia roleblock Iso if they intended to off Seppel. But they didn't go after Seppel, they went after GJ. Iso would have us believe the roleblocker just ignored Ophidia and Seppel during that?
GJ's kill makes sense because he's a strong player that was more active and/or not viewed as badly as other strong ones. Seppel had drawn early fire so it wouldn't make sense. Iso and Vaimes, if they're town, haven't said much at that point.
Yes the GJ kill makes sense, what doesn't make sense is the mafia roleblocking Iso. So they figure Seppel is completely full of ***** and then just happened to pick out the bodyguard with nothing to go on. That just seemed too convenient for Iso's claim.
On Seppel: with the way Seppel was behaving, he would NEVER draw protection. Not ever. Protecting Seppel meant zero sense, so GJ was naturally the target for actions on player strenght alone (as evidenced by the scumteam's NK choice on N1). From a scum point of view, if Iso is town either him or Seppel also were naturally the targets for actions on player strenght alone. "Kill StrongPlayer #1, RB StrongPlayer #2, ignore StrongPlayer #3 because he has his own problems right now." What's so wrong about this line of play? More over, what's wrong about this line of play if the scumteam noticed Ophidia was the vig eager to shoot Seppel, as for example, you did? So, again, your point doesn't make sense. You're trying too hard to present probabilities and shallow logic as if they were conclusive evidence.
If I were the Doctor, I would have protected Seppel N1. If I were the jailkeeper, I'm jailing Seppel N1. Maybe other players wouldn't but that is how I would have played those 2 roles.
Would it have been better if I didn't remove the "probably" from "Iso is probably scum." at the start of that original post? You are correct, I wasn't certain that Iso was scum, but he seemed very likely to be scum. I removed the "probably" because scum use those type of qualifiers to defend themselves too much. I wanted Iso to defend the arguments rather than try to hide behind "probably".
Followup: Kosa, go through and reread Iso toDay. He has not played as town and rereading him should show it to you. He does not defend himself like a town and he has not scumhunted like a town.
I think those "blob"s are from trying to paste quote text after dragging text around. I deleted them in the first post, didn't realize they were still attached.
Also, something worth noting Kosa. Iso could have made the argument about my argument being uncertain you are currently making. There is no reason you can make that defense of Iso but Iso can't. However, Iso never made that argument. He didn't dispute those points. He defended himself by calling me a scum, not by explaining why he's town.
I was pretty sure I was going to end up replacing, I've been rereading (and indeed following the game from the start). I'm going to Unvote and finish page 6 and post again.
Is there anyone who seriously believes that Vaimes or Kosa are not town at this current moment? I have some thoughts, but until I can get everyone's opinion on that, I'd like to keep them close to the chest. Seeing as how I have very limited lifespan left unless we get the roleblocker (if there actually is one), I will definitely say my peace, but first, Kosa and Vaimes?
Is there anyone who seriously believes that Vaimes or Kosa are not town at this current moment? I have some thoughts, but until I can get everyone's opinion on that, I'd like to keep them close to the chest. Seeing as how I have very limited lifespan left unless we get the roleblocker (if there actually is one), I will definitely say my peace, but first, Kosa and Vaimes?
Kosa is potentially scum, but it's much more likely to be zomg.
Of the 10 sets of 2 players: Vaimes + zomg, Kosa + zomg, Vaimes + Kosa, Kosa + AG and Vaimes + AG have all had ample time to hammer and win. The only teams which haven't been able to hammer are the 4 Iso parings and AG + zomg.
Alright, so not everyone has responded but I'm done waiting.
Here is where I stand. I'm not lynching Iso or AG today, but gun to my head I would lynch AG between the 2.
If we assume that Kosa and Vaimes are town (which I believe in this scenario) then we have both scum in Iso, AG, zomg. I'll admit right now that we lose to scum team AG/Iso which mean zomg had to be scum.
Vote Zomg
Once Zomg is flipped, there are a few scenarios we end up with:
-If zomg flips roleblocker, we go into tomorrow and lynch AG, game over.
-If zomg flips goon, I'm dead overnight and you guys get to duke it out yourselves (though I'd recommend a no lynch just to be sure).
-If zomg flips goon and I'm alive, I'm going to flip tables and chairs and find our last scum.
-If zomg flips town...wow, gj scum team.
Why I think AG is scum over Iso: WIFOM spam/number analysis over behavior analysis.
AG has flooded the thread with posts and arguments that just make it harder for town to see real behavior over just a slog of info.
I will concede that Iso's posts aren't indicative of lock town, and I could go either way given another day.
What's interesting to me is that both accuse the other of bussing Zomg, yet Iso is sure of zomg and AG is non committal. Also, would Zomg put a scum partner Iso at L-1?
Because we still have 28:40ish left in the day? Im in no rush to lose this game to yall like everyone else
The only situations left have you and me being scum together, or Iso being scum. Why are you worried about Iso getting hammered when the two of you cannot both be town?
Why doesn't it work like that? Unless Iso is less than 50% to gambit, a claim from him is more likely to be a lie than not. It's not the only evidence, but it's a piece.
Dude, what?
If what you're attempting to paint as truth was true, then:
A standard Mini has 12 people, 9 town 3 scum. Therefore, the chance of Player A being scum is 25%. So Player A is very unlikely to be scum. So Player A isn't scum.
Can't you really see what's wrong with it? What you're saying is that as the chance of a Bodyguard being or not in the game is 50% each, scum is more likely to gambit Bodyguard. As Iso is more likely to gambit than any other player, then he's gambitting scum and that's it. That was your whole initial argument to call Iso scum, and that argument is flawed at its core. You didn't even entertain the possibility of Iso telling the truth, as you flat-out stated: "Iso is scum." Based. Solely. On. Percentages.
And I'm repeating myself here, but you only did so after Vaimes pointed out the Bodyguard issue. So no, I don't believe you. I don't believe you didn't have inside knowledge about either the existence of a Bodyguard because Roleblocker or that Iso would falseclaim so because buddies. I just don't. It's WAY too convenient.
The initial argument also covered how the NK lined up with Iso's target and that Iso being roleblocked seemed way too convenient. I originally had a "probably" in that assertion but wanted the focus on the arguments rather than "probably"; I was aware of the holes but people get way too caught up in them when I explicitly point them out. 66% is a lot more than 25%, it's not going to condemn someone by itself, but it should direct attention. Since then, Iso has been playing like scum. I didn't post before Vaimes because I wanted posts from every player after Iso's claim before posting my argument. How is noticing how free a bodyguard falseclaim would be from the set up "WAY too convenient". It was nice of Iso to take the bait and he has since proven himself scum, but I was aware it might not work. Iso falling into a trap is not more convenient than Iso getting roleblocked after correctly predicting the N1 NK. Why do you trust that Iso predicted that scum would kill GJ, wanted to give up himself for GJ, but the scum figured out he was the bodyguard? That seems far more complicated than recognizing the potential for a bodyguard fake-claim.
So why wouldn't scumIso just claim to have protected Vaimes or something, here? I mean, really.
We have two worlds here: scum!Iso and town!Iso. According to this votal, what is the scumteam doing in both of these worlds? I actually think the answer is really easy. I wish I had looked at the votecount sooner. >_>
If Iso is scum, everyone on his wagon is very likely town. Having one buddy on the wagon and waiting out the clock is ??? at MyLo. Kosa would have to be the second scum here, hesitant between hammering Iso for the towncred or waiting to see if he can swing the lynch. But given his sparse posting, he doesn't at all strike me as "my buddy needs to not die here, lemme strongarm the thread into lynching literally anyone else." And playing the waiting game is dangerous, because Iso will be lynched by default, and Kosa would get no towncred here.
So. I don't believe in this world. I'm not reeeally sure I see a scumteam that doesn't include one of AG/zomg. Only mildly worried about confbias'ing here. But like, if Iso is scum with one of AG/zomg, then uh. I don't know what you're doing, but it'll probably help you win, so gg.
If Iso is town, then so is Kosa, and both scum are voting for Iso, period. Any scumteam including Kosa should have won already. That would make the scumteam AG and zomg.
---
So.
Scum only need one mislynch here to win.
I think zomg is stalling and hoping the lynch on Iso gets shoved through.
I think zomg is scum and we should lynch him.
But I also think AG is his partner, and since he already has one vote, I'll move there.
Unvote
Vote AG
---
Anyone who disagrees: look at the votes and tell me if you see anything different. If Iso is scum, who is his partner? What are they doing and why?
Also, I want Ophidia replaced so they can move their vote.
+1
I feel like I pretty much laid this out already, but yeah.
Iso + zomg is the most likely scum team, they are just both bussing. Iso + Kosa has been bugging me for a while and is still reasonable, but the interactions between Iso and zomg are just too awkward. zomg spent so much time focusing on Iso while Iso basically ignores him. It looks like new scum not really knowing what to do while Iso doesn't want too much interaction with his partner.
So now I'm not only scum, I'm terrible scum? I realize you're hanging off a ledge, here, but could you grasp any harder?
Iso is bussing because zomg was just too scummy and Iso couldn't put together a false case against town. His argument against me is purely based on "you are calling me scum".
zomg has been focusing on Iso all game. His posts during RVS seem to indicate he thinks Iso is scum while refusing to actually say it. It looks like he doesn't know how to play as scum and latched onto his partner.
It is possible zomg just has no idea what he's down as town and Kosa has put on a very good performance as scum, but that seems less likely.
Again - do you sincerely believe I'm a bad scum player? Because that's the only way your case holds any water, here.
Iso just completely ignored him for a rather long period of time. He jumped on zomg after there was a bunch of suspicion already there.
Remember when I mentioned you were making a point to take advantage of my lack of posting this game and you were like "NUH UH SHOW ME WHERE"? This is a prime example of that. Yes, I mostly ignored Arcwind because I had no idea what he was doing. Then Seppel ended the Day. Then my next big post was my re-read post. Yes, how opportunistic of me to post in the Mafia game I'm playing when I'm able to. Additionally, if I were scum and Arcwind were my buddy, I'd absolutely make it a point to interact with him. I am fabulous at making my buddies look great when I'm scum.
Your case continues to boil down to "Iso is bad at being scum, look at all the times he wasn't able to post!"
Iso is scum. He's the one I was thinking of when I considered the possibility of scum gambitting. Through sheer randomness, the chance of Iso being on the Goon/Goon mafia team is twice that of him being the bodyguard. I'd put the chance that Iso goes for the gambit in these circumstances above 50%, especially after I called attention to the bodyguard. That means it's more likely for an Iso claiming bodyguard to be scum than it is for him to be the actual bodyguard.
You're using midway probability to AFFIRM something. "The odds of a Bodyguard being in the game is 50% (This is truth, ok), so the odds of scum falseclaiming it is higher than 50% (Assumption #1. This depends on the scumteam). Since the probability of Iso falseclaiming something is greater than most players (Assumption #2. I agree, but it's not conclusive), therefore Iso is scum." You're jumping through hoops to force a point that, BY DEFINITION, can't be proved. There are too many moving parts in this statement for you, at that point of the game, to flat-out state Iso was scum. You go on additional points in an attempt to prove yours:
On top of Iso just being more likely to false claim bodyguard than be the actual bodyguard, the night actions line up with scum-Iso. Iso was probably worried that GJ was cozying up to him too much and therefore wanted to NK him.
I've already debunked this. GJ was nowhere near Iso D1, so this point is false.
This is very similar to Unseen University Night 1 with scum-Iso calling the NK in on Wessel.
Meta-based argument from not only another game, but another player as well. A statement that you never bothered to explain, btw. What in it is similar? How is this even valid considering that your previous point regarding GJ is moot?
Also, Iso's claim of protecting GJ but then being roleblocked doesn't make sense. Why would the scum kill GJ and roleblock Iso? Ophidia claimed vig day 1, and Seppel was drawing attention to himself claiming doctor. Seppel was probably trying to draw the protective role to himself and I could see the mafia roleblock Iso if they intended to off Seppel. But they didn't go after Seppel, they went after GJ. Iso would have us believe the roleblocker just ignored Ophidia and Seppel during that?
GJ's kill makes sense because he's a strong player that was more active and/or not viewed as badly as other strong ones. Seppel had drawn early fire so it wouldn't make sense. Iso and Vaimes, if they're town, haven't said much at that point.
On Seppel: with the way Seppel was behaving, he would NEVER draw protection. Not ever. Protecting Seppel meant zero sense, so GJ was naturally the target for actions on player strenght alone (as evidenced by the scumteam's NK choice on N1). From a scum point of view, if Iso is town either him or Seppel also were naturally the targets for actions on player strenght alone. "Kill StrongPlayer #1, RB StrongPlayer #2, ignore StrongPlayer #3 because he has his own problems right now." What's so wrong about this line of play? More over, what's wrong about this line of play if the scumteam noticed Ophidia was the vig eager to shoot Seppel, as for example, you did? So, again, your point doesn't make sense. You're trying too hard to present probabilities and shallow logic as if they were conclusive evidence.
Again, with the way it went, that's probably bussing, but still. Iso and zomg can be reread overNight. You're scum regardless.
Pretty much. GJ's last post of the Day very much indicated that he believed I was town. There was no threat to scumIso there. scumIso would have picked up on Ophidia's Vig claim and killed him, instead.
Oh, wait - I'm bad at being scum. How could I forget, with AG reminding me every time he tries to case me?
Iso is scum. He's the one I was thinking of when I considered the possibility of scum gambitting. Through sheer randomness, the chance of Iso being on the Goon/Goon mafia team is twice that of him being the bodyguard. I'd put the chance that Iso goes for the gambit in these circumstances above 50%, especially after I called attention to the bodyguard. That means it's more likely for an Iso claiming bodyguard to be scum than it is for him to be the actual bodyguard.
You're using midway probability to AFFIRM something. "The odds of a Bodyguard being in the game is 50% (This is truth, ok), so the odds of scum falseclaiming it is higher than 50% (Assumption #1. This depends on the scumteam). Since the probability of Iso falseclaiming something is greater than most players (Assumption #2. I agree, but it's not conclusive), therefore Iso is scum." You're jumping through hoops to force a point that, BY DEFINITION, can't be proved. There are too many moving parts in this statement for you, at that point of the game, to flat-out state Iso was scum.
Those weren't the assumptions I made. The probability argument was this: There is roughly a 50% chance of a bodyguard being in the game (technically 3 VT flips makes this slightly less than 50%). Similarly there is roughly a 50% chance of there not being a bodyguard in the game. There is one slot (bodyguard) in that slightly less than 50% that Iso can truthfully claim bodyguard from. There are 2 slots (the 2 goons) in the no bodyguard set up. Assumption 1: Iso is more than 50% to go for this gambit if given the chance. If that assumption is true than P(Iso=scum|Iso claims bodyguard) > P(Iso=town|Iso claims bodyguard). Iso did claim bodyguard so that becomes P(Iso=scum) > P(Iso=town). There was only 1 assumption. The only moving part is "How likely is Iso to gambit as a member of a Goon/Goon mafia team?".
On top of Iso just being more likely to false claim bodyguard than be the actual bodyguard, the night actions line up with scum-Iso. Iso was probably worried that GJ was cozying up to him too much and therefore wanted to NK him.
I've already debunked this. GJ was nowhere near Iso D1, so this point is false.
This is very similar to Unseen University Night 1 with scum-Iso calling the NK in on Wessel.
Meta-based argument from not only another game, but another player as well. A statement that you never bothered to explain, btw. What in it is similar? How is this even valid considering that your previous point regarding GJ is moot?
Iso was scum. Wessel was the cop. Wessel had attacked Iso early but backed off. Towards the end of day 1 he said he liked Iso. Wessel was suspicious of Iso, Iso figured he was suspicious and directed the NK at Wessel. The relevant player is scum-Iso and how he goes about making N1 NKs.
Also, Iso's claim of protecting GJ but then being roleblocked doesn't make sense. Why would the scum kill GJ and roleblock Iso? Ophidia claimed vig day 1, and Seppel was drawing attention to himself claiming doctor. Seppel was probably trying to draw the protective role to himself and I could see the mafia roleblock Iso if they intended to off Seppel. But they didn't go after Seppel, they went after GJ. Iso would have us believe the roleblocker just ignored Ophidia and Seppel during that?
GJ's kill makes sense because he's a strong player that was more active and/or not viewed as badly as other strong ones. Seppel had drawn early fire so it wouldn't make sense. Iso and Vaimes, if they're town, haven't said much at that point.
Yes the GJ kill makes sense, what doesn't make sense is the mafia roleblocking Iso. So they figure Seppel is completely full of ***** and then just happened to pick out the bodyguard with nothing to go on. That just seemed too convenient for Iso's claim.
On Seppel: with the way Seppel was behaving, he would NEVER draw protection. Not ever. Protecting Seppel meant zero sense, so GJ was naturally the target for actions on player strenght alone (as evidenced by the scumteam's NK choice on N1). From a scum point of view, if Iso is town either him or Seppel also were naturally the targets for actions on player strenght alone. "Kill StrongPlayer #1, RB StrongPlayer #2, ignore StrongPlayer #3 because he has his own problems right now." What's so wrong about this line of play? More over, what's wrong about this line of play if the scumteam noticed Ophidia was the vig eager to shoot Seppel, as for example, you did? So, again, your point doesn't make sense. You're trying too hard to present probabilities and shallow logic as if they were conclusive evidence.
If I were the Doctor, I would have protected Seppel N1. If I were the jailkeeper, I'm jailing Seppel N1. Maybe other players wouldn't but that is how I would have played those 2 roles.
Would it have been better if I didn't remove the "probably" from "Iso is probably scum." at the start of that original post? You are correct, I wasn't certain that Iso was scum, but he seemed very likely to be scum. I removed the "probably" because scum use those type of qualifiers to defend themselves too much. I wanted Iso to defend the arguments rather than try to hide behind "probably".
Again, with the way it went, that's probably bussing, but still. Iso and zomg can be reread overNight. You're scum regardless.
Iso is 100% scum, you won't be able to reread him and zomg overNight.
What? Of course the scum knew Seppel was full of ***** - they have a Roleblocker. The scum can't have a Roleblocker with a Town Doc in the setup. Are you reading what you're posting before you post it?
Also, your argument RE: Wessel in Unseen University directly contradicts the basis on which you are supposing I would have suggested a GJ kill on. "Iso knew Wessel was the Cop and that Wessel was suspicious of him in spite of what Wessel said at the end of the Day, so Iso killed Wessel." vs. "GJ made a comment about Iso at the end of the Day [that clearly indicated he thought Iso was town as opposed to a shifty gambit like Wessel attempted in UU Mafia] while Ophidia was breadcrumbing Vig, and because Iso is a bad scum player, he always kills people who think he's town instead of town power roles." Like...what? Please reconcile the cognitive dissonance, here.
Also, something worth noting Kosa. Iso could have made the argument about my argument being uncertain you are currently making. There is no reason you can make that defense of Iso but Iso can't. However, Iso never made that argument. He didn't dispute those points. He defended himself by calling me a scum, not by explaining why he's town.
You came swinging at me out of the gate and I was more interested in solving the game than proving my townieness. If I didn't directly state your arguments were bad, it was certainly implied. Once I figured out you were scum, I had pretty much 0 interest in engaging you.
Is there anyone who seriously believes that Vaimes or Kosa are not town at this current moment? I have some thoughts, but until I can get everyone's opinion on that, I'd like to keep them close to the chest. Seeing as how I have very limited lifespan left unless we get the roleblocker (if there actually is one), I will definitely say my peace, but first, Kosa and Vaimes?
I believe Kosa and Vaimes are town for reasons I've laid out so far.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
So Iso, are you saying zomg isn't your partner? You are defending zomg with "I'm not bad enough to reveal my partner". Seems really weird that you are defending zomg while you have your vote on him.
Remember when I mentioned you were making a point to take advantage of my lack of posting this game and you were like "NUH UH SHOW ME WHERE"? This is a prime example of that. Yes, I mostly ignored Arcwind because I had no idea what he was doing. Then Seppel ended the Day. Then my next big post was my re-read post. Yes, how opportunistic of me to post in the Mafia game I'm playing when I'm able to. Rolleyes Additionally, if I were scum and Arcwind were my buddy, I'd absolutely make it a point to interact with him. I am fabulous at making my buddies look great when I'm scum.
Your case continues to boil down to "Iso is bad at being scum, look at all the times he wasn't able to post!"[/quote]
Ah so now you are a time traveler. Can't support your argument with evidence that existed at the time, have to get it from the future. You seem really invested in my case on zomg. I used the content of your posts against zomg and you claim I'm attacking you for your posting rate?
What is with your continued "Woe is me"? You got caught as scum, simple as that. There's no need to keep acting as if you are too good to get caught as scum.
What? Of course the scum knew Seppel was full of ***** - they have a Roleblocker. The scum can't have a Roleblocker with a Town Doc in the setup. Weird Are you reading what you're posting before you post it?
Put some more thought into this.
Also, your argument RE: Wessel in Unseen University directly contradicts the basis on which you are supposing I would have suggested a GJ kill on. "Iso knew Wessel was the Cop and that Wessel was suspicious of him in spite of what Wessel said at the end of the Day, so Iso killed Wessel." vs. "GJ made a comment about Iso at the end of the Day [that clearly indicated he thought Iso was town as opposed to a shifty gambit like Wessel attempted in UU Mafia] while Ophidia was breadcrumbing Vig, and because Iso is a bad scum player, he always kills people who think he's town instead of town power roles." Like...what? Please reconcile the cognitive dissonance, here.
What about GJ's post makes it so obvious he views you as town while Wessel's was an obvious shifty gambit?
No need to even answer. That was part of the initial case, but it's not necessary anymore. Your reaction to the case is much more informative than the NK.
Did you catch Ophidia's breadcrumbing? Also, haven't you already argued that Ophidia would obviously shoot Seppel and therefore scum would have no reason to kill or roleblock him? You seem to have answered your own question.
You came swinging at me out of the gate and I was more interested in solving the game than proving my townieness. If I didn't directly state your arguments were bad, it was certainly implied. Once I figured out you were scum, I had pretty much 0 interest in engaging you.
In addition to a link to your most recent scumgame, I also wanted to ask: why did you say this?
The setup still could have been Vig/Goon/Vanilla. There was no Bodyguard claim, yet that's the first PR you asked to claim.
1) I already knew who the vig was
2) I wanted to force the possible Bodyguard gambit to happen on our terms (I wanted the scum to go for it immediately rather than have nobody claim bodyguard or have a bodyguard claim (either real or fake) come out later)
Iso is scum. He's the one I was thinking of when I considered the possibility of scum gambitting. Through sheer randomness, the chance of Iso being on the Goon/Goon mafia team is twice that of him being the bodyguard. I'd put the chance that Iso goes for the gambit in these circumstances above 50%, especially after I called attention to the bodyguard. That means it's more likely for an Iso claiming bodyguard to be scum than it is for him to be the actual bodyguard.
On top of Iso just being more likely to false claim bodyguard than be the actual bodyguard, the night actions line up with scum-Iso. Iso was probably worried that GJ was cozying up to him too much and therefore wanted to NK him. This is very similar to Unseen University Night 1 with scum-Iso calling the NK in on Wessel. Also, Iso's claim of protecting GJ but then being roleblocked doesn't make sense. Why would the scum kill GJ and roleblock Iso? Ophidia claimed vig day 1, and Seppel was drawing attention to himself claiming doctor. Seppel was probably trying to draw the protective role to himself and I could see the mafia roleblock Iso if they intended to off Seppel. But they didn't go after Seppel, they went after GJ. Iso would have us believe the roleblocker just ignored Ophidia and Seppel during that?
About my scum games, I haven't played recently and 88 is probably my most recent scum game. If you just want another game to look through, I was scum in Chime Mafia.
Or, and I know this is completely impossible (/s), you got to the thread before I did as scum in an attempt to out me as Bodyguard because you already knew (as I was Roleblocked, and who else would I protect but GJ?) and then attempt to take advantage of my lack of posting (which I stated would be the case) by attempting to get the rest of the game predisposed to bias against my posts before I could get them in.
At least, that's the way I'm leaning on the matter.
Your first comment on it is "he's scum". Where was this period of time where you were trying to solve the game before just declaring me scum and had no interest in engaging me? I don't get how any of the arguments Kosa made are implied by ,"you got to the thread before I did as scum in an attempt to out me as Bodyguard because you already knew (as I was Roleblocked, and who else would I protect but GJ?) and then attempt to take advantage of my lack of posting (which I stated would be the case) by attempting to get the rest of the game predisposed to bias against my posts before I could get them in."
It's all reliant on calling me scum.
Could anyone else explain how Iso's defense here matches a town mindset? It's just OMGUS.
@kosa seriously good work. For not rolling scum very often, you did really well. I would not have caught you, at least not without a lot more time and some luck.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I agree. I made as much noise and chaos as possible, sowing doubt and disorder where I could. I was the point man, Kosa was the sweeper. I knew I was being scummy and reveled in it. (AG's case on me was monstrously bad, but it was glorious to have literally half of the game suspect me and not able to lynch me.)
I realized Kosa would have to carry this with my inactivity, so I helped set him up so that a Kosa/Iso scum team was almost impossible.
Towards the end, I almost egged AG on to vote for Arcwind, instead, but had a feeling that would change Vaimes's read on me and decided not to take the risk.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Thank you everyone for playing, and thanks to shadow for replacing in at the 11th hour
Town had it a bit rough Day 2 with having lost 3 Townies Night 1, although there were a few times where it looked like they might recover. Well done scum team!
Yeah I couldnt see the forest thru the trees cause of Vaimes.
@Vaimes- Okay now that we are post game do you understand why i thouhgt you were scum for "running the narrative"?
Vaimes was the towniest player in the game. Your case against him didn't look that good and jumping on and off Iso so much wasn't helping you. The only reason I had any doubts about you being scum was because you seemed too obviously scum. I've gone after scum for "trying to run the narrative" before, but Vaimes wasn't misconstruing the viewpoints of other players and he owned his reads.
Oh ya, the thing that kept nagging at me about Iso + Kosa was Kosa's active-lurking early on. He had focused on mechanics and hadn't posted analysis for a long period of time. Just something to keep in mind when you end up scum again, Kosa.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
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Again, your initial argument does not make sense. I'll go through it one more time, step by step:
You're using midway probability to AFFIRM something. "The odds of a Bodyguard being in the game is 50% (This is truth, ok), so the odds of scum falseclaiming it is higher than 50% (Assumption #1. This depends on the scumteam). Since the probability of Iso falseclaiming something is greater than most players (Assumption #2. I agree, but it's not conclusive), therefore Iso is scum." You're jumping through hoops to force a point that, BY DEFINITION, can't be proved. There are too many moving parts in this statement for you, at that point of the game, to flat-out state Iso was scum. You go on additional points in an attempt to prove yours:
I've already debunked this. GJ was nowhere near Iso D1, so this point is false.
Meta-based argument from not only another game, but another player as well. A statement that you never bothered to explain, btw. What in it is similar? How is this even valid considering that your previous point regarding GJ is moot?
GJ's kill makes sense because he's a strong player that was more active and/or not viewed as badly as other strong ones. Seppel had drawn early fire so it wouldn't make sense. Iso and Vaimes, if they're town, haven't said much at that point.
On Seppel: with the way Seppel was behaving, he would NEVER draw protection. Not ever. Protecting Seppel meant zero sense, so GJ was naturally the target for actions on player strenght alone (as evidenced by the scumteam's NK choice on N1). From a scum point of view, if Iso is town either him or Seppel also were naturally the targets for actions on player strenght alone. "Kill StrongPlayer #1, RB StrongPlayer #2, ignore StrongPlayer #3 because he has his own problems right now." What's so wrong about this line of play? More over, what's wrong about this line of play if the scumteam noticed Ophidia was the vig eager to shoot Seppel, as for example, you did? So, again, your point doesn't make sense. You're trying too hard to present probabilities and shallow logic as if they were conclusive evidence.
Again, with the way it went, that's probably bussing, but still. Iso and zomg can be reread overNight. You're scum regardless.
Unvote
zomg, put your vote on a member of the scumteam and state why that person is scum.
I will put my vote back on AG once this is resolved.
Those weren't the assumptions I made. The probability argument was this: There is roughly a 50% chance of a bodyguard being in the game (technically 3 VT flips makes this slightly less than 50%). Similarly there is roughly a 50% chance of there not being a bodyguard in the game. There is one slot (bodyguard) in that slightly less than 50% that Iso can truthfully claim bodyguard from. There are 2 slots (the 2 goons) in the no bodyguard set up. Assumption 1: Iso is more than 50% to go for this gambit if given the chance. If that assumption is true than P(Iso=scum|Iso claims bodyguard) > P(Iso=town|Iso claims bodyguard). Iso did claim bodyguard so that becomes P(Iso=scum) > P(Iso=town). There was only 1 assumption. The only moving part is "How likely is Iso to gambit as a member of a Goon/Goon mafia team?".
He made a comment after the lynch about Iso.
Iso was scum. Wessel was the cop. Wessel had attacked Iso early but backed off. Towards the end of day 1 he said he liked Iso. Wessel was suspicious of Iso, Iso figured he was suspicious and directed the NK at Wessel. The relevant player is scum-Iso and how he goes about making N1 NKs.
Yes the GJ kill makes sense, what doesn't make sense is the mafia roleblocking Iso. So they figure Seppel is completely full of ***** and then just happened to pick out the bodyguard with nothing to go on. That just seemed too convenient for Iso's claim.
If I were the Doctor, I would have protected Seppel N1. If I were the jailkeeper, I'm jailing Seppel N1. Maybe other players wouldn't but that is how I would have played those 2 roles.
Would it have been better if I didn't remove the "probably" from "Iso is probably scum." at the start of that original post? You are correct, I wasn't certain that Iso was scum, but he seemed very likely to be scum. I removed the "probably" because scum use those type of qualifiers to defend themselves too much. I wanted Iso to defend the arguments rather than try to hide behind "probably".
Iso is 100% scum, you won't be able to reread him and zomg overNight.
Votecount:
Iso: shadowlancerx, AtheistGod (L-2)
Zomgarcwind: Iso (L-3)
AtheistGod: Kosakosa (L-3)
Not Voting:
Vaimes, Zomgarcwind
With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
Deadline is 1 November.
No extension for the replacement to read?
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StaffKosa is potentially scum, but it's much more likely to be zomg.
Of the 10 sets of 2 players: Vaimes + zomg, Kosa + zomg, Vaimes + Kosa, Kosa + AG and Vaimes + AG have all had ample time to hammer and win. The only teams which haven't been able to hammer are the 4 Iso parings and AG + zomg.
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StaffHere is where I stand. I'm not lynching Iso or AG today, but gun to my head I would lynch AG between the 2.
If we assume that Kosa and Vaimes are town (which I believe in this scenario) then we have both scum in Iso, AG, zomg. I'll admit right now that we lose to scum team AG/Iso which mean zomg had to be scum.
Vote Zomg
Once Zomg is flipped, there are a few scenarios we end up with:
-If zomg flips roleblocker, we go into tomorrow and lynch AG, game over.
-If zomg flips goon, I'm dead overnight and you guys get to duke it out yourselves (though I'd recommend a no lynch just to be sure).
-If zomg flips goon and I'm alive, I'm going to flip tables and chairs and find our last scum.
-If zomg flips town...wow, gj scum team.
Why I think AG is scum over Iso: WIFOM spam/number analysis over behavior analysis.
AG has flooded the thread with posts and arguments that just make it harder for town to see real behavior over just a slog of info.
I will concede that Iso's posts aren't indicative of lock town, and I could go either way given another day.
What's interesting to me is that both accuse the other of bussing Zomg, yet Iso is sure of zomg and AG is non committal. Also, would Zomg put a scum partner Iso at L-1?
Anyway, that's where I'm at.
Why aren't you voting?
The only situations left have you and me being scum together, or Iso being scum. Why are you worried about Iso getting hammered when the two of you cannot both be town?
Iso: AtheistGod (L-3)
Zomgarcwind: Iso, shadowlancerx (L-2)
AtheistGod: Kosakosa (L-3)
Not Voting:
Vaimes, Zomgarcwind
With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
Deadline is 1 November.
So why wouldn't scumIso just claim to have protected Vaimes or something, here? I mean, really.
+1
I feel like I pretty much laid this out already, but yeah.
Again - do you sincerely believe I'm a bad scum player? Because that's the only way your case holds any water, here.
Remember when I mentioned you were making a point to take advantage of my lack of posting this game and you were like "NUH UH SHOW ME WHERE"? This is a prime example of that. Yes, I mostly ignored Arcwind because I had no idea what he was doing. Then Seppel ended the Day. Then my next big post was my re-read post. Yes, how opportunistic of me to post in the Mafia game I'm playing when I'm able to.
Your case continues to boil down to "Iso is bad at being scum, look at all the times he wasn't able to post!"
Pretty much. GJ's last post of the Day very much indicated that he believed I was town. There was no threat to scumIso there. scumIso would have picked up on Ophidia's Vig claim and killed him, instead.
Oh, wait - I'm bad at being scum. How could I forget, with AG reminding me every time he tries to case me?
What? Of course the scum knew Seppel was full of ***** - they have a Roleblocker. The scum can't have a Roleblocker with a Town Doc in the setup.
Also, your argument RE: Wessel in Unseen University directly contradicts the basis on which you are supposing I would have suggested a GJ kill on. "Iso knew Wessel was the Cop and that Wessel was suspicious of him in spite of what Wessel said at the end of the Day, so Iso killed Wessel." vs. "GJ made a comment about Iso at the end of the Day [that clearly indicated he thought Iso was town as opposed to a shifty gambit like Wessel attempted in UU Mafia] while Ophidia was breadcrumbing Vig, and because Iso is a bad scum player, he always kills people who think he's town instead of town power roles." Like...what? Please reconcile the cognitive dissonance, here.
You came swinging at me out of the gate and I was more interested in solving the game than proving my townieness. If I didn't directly state your arguments were bad, it was certainly implied. Once I figured out you were scum, I had pretty much 0 interest in engaging you.
I believe Kosa and Vaimes are town for reasons I've laid out so far.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Vote zomg
Your case continues to boil down to "Iso is bad at being scum, look at all the times he wasn't able to post!"[/quote]
Ah so now you are a time traveler. Can't support your argument with evidence that existed at the time, have to get it from the future. You seem really invested in my case on zomg. I used the content of your posts against zomg and you claim I'm attacking you for your posting rate?
What is with your continued "Woe is me"? You got caught as scum, simple as that. There's no need to keep acting as if you are too good to get caught as scum.
Put some more thought into this.
What about GJ's post makes it so obvious he views you as town while Wessel's was an obvious shifty gambit?No need to even answer. That was part of the initial case, but it's not necessary anymore. Your reaction to the case is much more informative than the NK.
Did you catch Ophidia's breadcrumbing? Also, haven't you already argued that Ophidia would obviously shoot Seppel and therefore scum would have no reason to kill or roleblock him? You seem to have answered your own question.
So here is your initial response:
Your first comment on it is "he's scum". Where was this period of time where you were trying to solve the game before just declaring me scum and had no interest in engaging me? I don't get how any of the arguments Kosa made are implied by ,"you got to the thread before I did as scum in an attempt to out me as Bodyguard because you already knew (as I was Roleblocked, and who else would I protect but GJ?) and then attempt to take advantage of my lack of posting (which I stated would be the case) by attempting to get the rest of the game predisposed to bias against my posts before I could get them in."
It's all reliant on calling me scum.
Could anyone else explain how Iso's defense here matches a town mindset? It's just OMGUS.
Vote zomg
And that's the way the cookie crumbles
Votecount:
Iso: AtheistGod (L-3)
Zomgarcwind: Iso, shadowlancerx, Vaimes, Kosakosa (L-0)
AtheistGod: Kosakosa (L-3)
Not Voting:
Zomgarcwind
With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
Iso and Kosakosa have won!
Mafia chat
Also Iso
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StaffAlso sorry for the D1 lynch. I didn't realize I was the hammer. I thought Rodemy was at L-2 and strongly believed him to be town.
Thanks for holding the team together, Kosa. Sorry I disappeared for a little bit - life got insane for a couple of weeks.
GG, all.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
1. Town players didn't stand out.
2. I can't think of a 2. I stopped watching mostly after I died.
Kosa did a good job maybe not of blending in, but by being in the mix. There is no excuse for not killing Iso today.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I realized Kosa would have to carry this with my inactivity, so I helped set him up so that a Kosa/Iso scum team was almost impossible.
Towards the end, I almost egged AG on to vote for Arcwind, instead, but had a feeling that would change Vaimes's read on me and decided not to take the risk.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Town had it a bit rough Day 2 with having lost 3 Townies Night 1, although there were a few times where it looked like they might recover. Well done scum team!
Vaimes was the towniest player in the game. Your case against him didn't look that good and jumping on and off Iso so much wasn't helping you. The only reason I had any doubts about you being scum was because you seemed too obviously scum. I've gone after scum for "trying to run the narrative" before, but Vaimes wasn't misconstruing the viewpoints of other players and he owned his reads.
Oh ya, the thing that kept nagging at me about Iso + Kosa was Kosa's active-lurking early on. He had focused on mechanics and hadn't posted analysis for a long period of time. Just something to keep in mind when you end up scum again, Kosa.
Was kinda fun. Victory was in our grasp and I talked myself out of it.
Not a fan of lurky endgames.
Next time Iso is getting a hammer to the face.
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StaffMore like I talked you out of it, I was pretty off when I came in.
COME AT ME, BRO.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player