Also, the list of people from D_V's #1693 that scarbo has voted (noting that voted isn't quite the same as pushed) is:
Me (1.6)
Zomg (1.7)
GJ (1.9)
No Lynch (1.16)
Ghosting (1.21)
Shockwave (2.1)
Mindreaver (3.2)
Of these...
I'm town.
Zomg is an Innocent Child.
GJ is dead town.
No lynch is lol.
Ghosting is lol.
Shockwave he didn't push, he just said he thought there were two scum in [NewName/Shockwave/Mindreaver]. Then he said something about how Shock's interactions are all low key after he voted him.
Mindreaver is probably town.
So, yeah. Zomg and GJ are the ones I was thinking of, but yeah. The players he's tried to lynch this game are basically [Me, Zomg, GJ, Ghosting, Mindreaver] and I'm pretty sure there's no scum in that. Unless it's Ghosting I guess.
@Scarbo:
That's what I'm saying, though. You voted him to self-pres, that's fine. I'm not talking about your vote. At EoD1 you were like "He could be town" then at SoD2 you said "There's two scum in [Shockwave, NewName, Mindreaver]" then D3 you were like "No wait, he's town and his wagon sucks." It looks fake to me. But it's also beside the point. I don't want to talk to you about you, that's not going to get us anywhere. Talk to me about Vaimes. Did you read his iso? First two pages is fine. What do you think of his reads on those four players I pointed out?
My ability use cleared me to GJ. I used it on him N2 and he was able to rolecop Mindreaver and D_V the same night.
Er. Well, actually, you didn't want to lynch NewName on D1, then flipped on him D2 (you said there were two scum in NewName, Mindreaver, Shockwave), then 180'd on him again and condemned his wagon when it was tied with yours on D3?
I just need to go look at your read progression like I did Vaimes, I guess.
I only voted INANN because he was my counterwagon and I knew my alignment. If someone said they were going to vig me guess what I'd do: redirect them.
GJ was only a brief scum read, reignited by a bout of paranoia I've already explained. zomg is the only person I've been totally wrong about so far.
I'm really struggling to see how mindreaver CAN'T be scum. behaviorally he's been terrible. POE leads right to him. You'll probably need to share more details about this later.
I'm seeing Vaimes and INANN as basically the same- classic disengaged town. There's a difference between that and scum-lurking.
@DV: no, >I< redirected Proph N2 to GJ. He targeted me last night. I didn't redirect anyone. Proph is neutral. look elsewhere.
can someone remind me exactly what cleared silver to GJ? not doubting him, just can't find the details from his iso. role copping?
Unvote
Vote: jackrito
What is this vote?????????????????????? Why Jack Scarbo?
I would agree. The double voter doesn't make sense, despite the way the votes have been cast. It's possible he's scum and we lose, but the only way to stop it is to lynch him right now. I don't see us going that way, especially when I simply don't see maliciousness in these votes. I see hunt literally being forced to be on any successful wagon because of his power, not him pushing a specific agenda.
Who is the last member though? Lets say jack is scum. Then what? As you just mentioned, Hunt/Me is your PoE pool, and there is at least one, possibly two scum left after Jack flips. So who do you think they could be?
Everyone go read Vaimes' iso. He only has four pages. Now go reread everything said since the start of toDay. Look at the way Scarbo, D_V, and Vaimes are talking about and to each other. They're basically all endorsing the jack/mindreaver PoE because those are the mislynches they need to win. They're trying to strong arm us into it with D_V's "confirmation."
To reiterate, Scarbo's been pushing mislynches and neutrals all game. He made Proph vanillaize GJ. His role slots quite snugly into a scum team.
Vaimes' read progressions on Shockwave, D_V, scarbo, and Mindreaver are extremely bizarre. If you didn't read his iso please go do that now. At least the first two pages. Shockwave gets town read basically all of D1 because of a single post clover made, then he suddenly drops into the PoE around the time the Cythare wagon picked up and people were talking about lynching him instead. Then Vaimes pops back into the thread D2 just to say he endorses the Shockwave lynch. D_V gets an earlyish townread then gets hard defended most of the day before mysteriously slipping into the PoE block on D2 so he could be plausibly cleared by the item Vaimes got from Kosa on N1. He's had scarbo in his PoE for Days and never tracks him, and is right now trying to lynch the same people as him while saying he's probably scum over me. He scum read Mindreaver early, focusing on him for several posts before saying "I'm ok with him now" but leaves him in the PoE. Then he puts him in his town block, moves him back off the town block, then half-tracks him instead of any of his stronger scum reads like NewName or Jack. His role also fits on a scum team nicely because they should have an investigative to help them direct the roleblocker.
D_V is endorsing the same PoE as both of them, is "cleared" because of Vaimes, and a D_V scum flip resolves the voting dichotomies Vaimes pointed out between Huntzilla and Mindreaver just as well as either of them. He's out right refusing to vote outside of Jack toDay. I haven't looked closely at D_V's earlier stuff so I'm sure there's more than that, but that's enough for now. His claim could be scum or town. I guess it's not super likely that there's a redirector, a roleblocker, and a duelist on the scum team, though. Ugh.
There's a chance it's like Jack instead of D_V or something, maybe. But D_V's continued smearing of me isn't making me think it's Jack. There's literally no reason town!D_V cannot suspect Vaimes of pocketing him by checking him. It's perfectly plausible and his refusal to even consider it makes me more sure it's him over Jack. Because if we can lynch Scarbo or Vaimes, we won't lose outright when Ghosting and Proph leave. That's why there's so much pushback against lynching Scarbo from them.
@D_V:
Mindreaver used his ability on me. It basically confirms him from my PoV. It isn't him. I'm pretty sure we just lose to scum!Huntz if he still has both votes regardless of the number of players left on the scum team. It's not something I can prove with math, it's a feeling I have about the way the game will play out. If he loses his votes then we don't lose and can reevaluate in F3 or whatever. Help me lynch Scarbo and Vaimes, then ya'll can argue in circles about whether it's you, Jack or Huntz/Mindreaver in the F3.
You are making a whole lotta sense here... I am currently at DV-Vaimes-... Toss up. The pool is Jack, Mind and a distant Proph. I HATE DVs jumping around today.
What is going on with you DV? I thought Vaimes "couldn't be scum" because why would scum!vaimes confirm you as town?
You really are troubling right now.
You started the day with "oh maybe we should lynch a neutral to unlock me" when Ghosting HAS to unlock you in order to win, you could have just asked him to target you.
Then you proposed "the best lynch option" and OOPs, he's the Innocent Child (no easy zomg mislynch for your team, sadface)
next you are "starting to think scarbo is town" for ???
Next theory is hunt is scum
next we PoE down the scum lists and while scarbo's "natural claim" clears him (again ???) we end up at jack/me/hunt and you vote jack (not hunt, like you just focused)
Silver asks why not me (because he knows why not me) and you say because of behavior I'm not with hunt
You then go after proph ("Do you think vaimes is lying", "His clear of me additionally makes no sense for scum to do")
I ask which neutral you're up for killing (since scum need to remove them from the game tonight to control the vote tomorrow) and you respond that you are 90% sure of jack/mind/hunt scumteam (that 10% must be proph "red herring pretending to be neutral scum" you mention in the same post)
vote analysis on Jack/Me, Silver makes "a good point" and might swap scarbo for mind (must have been a good point to invalidate the natural claim and also ???) and maybe hunt is town after all (but definitely jack is scum, 100%)
Silver is then asked to stop being terrible with his groupings
more against silver's analysis
"why did proph target scarbo?"
"With Vaimes clearing me it makes us both have to be scum or him have to be scum. But I can't be scum and him be town."
back to jack/hunt/mind team because I used the word "goon"
But to explain the problem. He got redirected to Scarbo night 2, and then said he targeted him night 3.
JACK/VAIMES/PROPH????? You literally have said maybe three times today that vaimes clearing you as scum makes no sense. That hunt/mind is the team with jack. Where on earth did this proph thing come from? Oh wait, you've been testing the waters on killing the neutral that isn't close to leaving. Let me ask this to the thread at large: If ghosting leaves tonight, we lynch proph OR town today, and hunt dies overnight, what happens tomorrow? The answer: scum sits, waits for any non-mafia vote at all, and hammers for the win.
@DV explain your change on Scarbo. Why was he a good vote for all of yesterday, but now is not? Why was Zomg better? What has Jack done that is scummier than Scarbo? Why are you pushing literally anyone BUT scarbo (me, jack, proph, hunt, vaimes???)?
I'll consider revealing my ability. I'd be happier to do it if somebody I didn't suspect so completely was asking. So in that light: @Zomg - if you think it would help you come to a conclusion, to know, let me know. Also, we ever gonna hear about the red pill?
I'm with you mind. This behavior looks more like he's trying to push ANYTHING that'll stick. It doesn't come across as "panicked town" trying to solve the game. It is clearly DV trying to get ANY mislynch to go through.
Can anyone explain to me why I am getting flack for townies dying when I ALSO helped kill the only scum flip we have? I mean there was no need for scum!hunt to bus there. Shock was OBV!scum and was solidly going down. If you believe I am an alleged 1 of 3 scum!doublevoter, and I bussed a team mate for basically NO towncred, then I deserve to die for that terrible play. I mean I am a lulz!player, but that would just be stupid.
Let's kill DV for this crap agenda he's shoving down our mouths. Kill Vaimes for the clearly buddying townclear after DV flips scum. Then hopefully the game will be all but sown up.
@Proph, I don't know how likely it is that you will reach your win con right now. Would you be terribly opposed to just not spraying the 'nilla all over people and remaining in the game to help us stay afloat? It would force the scum to have to kill you or live with you, but would make it harder for you to win...
I haven't felt like this was scum!scarbo all game. I think it is misguided Scarbo. Maybe even rusty Scarbo. But he's been freaking neutral hunting the whole time. I have felt like this was a classic "too scum to be scum" instance. Clearing sounds like I have inside knowledge, or some mechanical way to confirm him. All I have is my gut on this one. I would be shocked if he ACTUALLY flipped scum after what he's put forth this game.
The thing I have not liked today from him has been his sudden thrusting of me into his bottom PoE. But, I can't say I'm surprised compared to the rest of the game. Seems about right actually.
@Scarbo:
Please read the first two pages of Vaimes' iso?
If you're town, I need your thoughts on his progression. Am I seeing things? Am I right?
If you're scum, you'll ignore me I guess.
you know what, quite possibly. stay tuned.
@hunt: why would you vote DV over Vaimes? There's no possible way DV could be scum and Vaimes town yet it is totally possible for Vaimes to be scum while DV is town. So why DV instead of Vaimes?
I haven't felt like this was scum!scarbo all game. I think it is misguided Scarbo. Maybe even rusty Scarbo. But he's been freaking neutral hunting the whole time. I have felt like this was a classic "too scum to be scum" instance. Clearing sounds like I have inside knowledge, or some mechanical way to confirm him. All I have is my gut on this one. I would be shocked if he ACTUALLY flipped scum after what he's put forth this game.
The thing I have not liked today from him has been his sudden thrusting of me into his bottom PoE. But, I can't say I'm surprised compared to the rest of the game. Seems about right actually.
No. I'm done being accused of neutral hunting. I had very explicit reasons for not trusting ghosting, and that wasn't neutral hunting. That was I-don't-believe-ghosting-and-I-think-he's-lying-scum. Now that those issues have been resolved, I've accepted him as neutral. And yes, maybe I am rusty. It has been over 3 years since my last game I think, but I don't think I've been bad at my reads.
silver, there have only been three Nights. I haven't really had the chance to Track scarbo.
N1: my ability was basically useless; I only get told "your target went somewhere" or "your target went nowhere"
N2: I used Kosa's invention
N3: I entertained the possibility of scum!Hunt, which I talked about briefly in an earlier post. This is infinitely more valuable information (potentially catching a scum Double Voter).
Moreover, tracking scarbo is dumb because of the massclaim. If something gets redirected, he's not going to be able to hide it.
Incidentally, silver, how often would you say you play mafia? Be honest now.
Hunt: please do not be dumb and get one of the two townfirmed players lynched, thanks.
Speaking of Jack, where has he been? I unlocked him and can't even recall if he's posted today. If he has, it certainly wasn't anything memorable (which feels like his entire play this game). I was feeling better about him yesterday, but am not so sure as I look at his behaviour as a whole. Since he's unlocked I would obviously prefer him alive, but for town's sake, I do genuinely think his play needs to be addressed at some point.
I still can't see Hunt as scum, but it might make sense if the scum team really is that underpowered. To be honest though, I feel like that's reaching pretty hard when there are other, more obvious and likely options.
Proph is almost definitely not scum, it makes so much sense for there to be another neutral that mirrors my role. Although maybe he's scum and just mirrors my role? His role is definitely inherently anti-town, whereas mine is almost definitively neutral (since I may be required to unlock scum, for example).
Scarbo's one of my strongest scum reads still.
I can't tell if D_V is town thinking about the game or scum trying to work it out. I'll be honest that he's gone down from #1 scum read, but by no means have I cleared him or anything.
Wait, has the person with Kosa's vigshot still not claimed?
FTR, Proph would have been an infinitely better vig target. He's a claimed Neutral and he's not really invested in the game (or at least I haven't seen much of him recently, hi Proph).
Speaking of Jack, where has he been? I unlocked him and can't even recall if he's posted today. If he has, it certainly wasn't anything memorable (which feels like his entire play this game). I was feeling better about him yesterday, but am not so sure as I look at his behaviour as a whole. Since he's unlocked I would obviously prefer him alive, but for town's sake, I do genuinely think his play needs to be addressed at some point.
I still can't see Hunt as scum, but it might make sense if the scum team really is that underpowered. To be honest though, I feel like that's reaching pretty hard when there are other, more obvious and likely options.
Proph is almost definitely not scum, it makes so much sense for there to be another neutral that mirrors my role. Although maybe he's scum and just mirrors my role? His role is definitely inherently anti-town, whereas mine is almost definitively neutral (since I may be required to unlock scum, for example).
Scarbo's one of my strongest scum reads still.
I can't tell if D_V is town thinking about the game or scum trying to work it out. I'll be honest that he's gone down from #1 scum read, but by no means have I cleared him or anything.
How do you say "almost definitely not scum" and "maybe he's scum" in the same breath and take that sentence seriously?
Moreover, tracking scarbo is dumb because of the massclaim. If something gets redirected, he's not going to be able to hide it.
That's only half the point. The point is, you had Scarbo, Jack, and NewName at the bottom of your scum list on D1, and for some reason you moved Mindreaver off of your town block without saying anything about it then half-tracked him instead of a legit scum read.
Incidentally, silver, how often would you say you play mafia? Be honest now.
As in the alignment, or just as in how many games I've played? I've only been scum in a few 18/6 minute phase games. I've only been playing total for like... six months? Three completed long games, two on this site. I've played about a dozen of the really fast ones. Haven't had much of a break since I started, so pretty constantly if you're talking strictly frequency... when I wasn't in a long game I was playing turbos on weekends.
Anyway. Like I said to Scarbo, I don't want to talk to you about you. I'd like my scum reads to talk about each other. Nitpicking my points or whatever isn't going to change my mind. You don't need to talk about D_V obviously, he's modconfirmed to you. Talk to me about scarbo. Does his progression look legit to you? Would you be willing to lynch him with me? Why do you prefer to lynch Jack over him or Mindreaver?
And no, the person with Kosa's vig shot never claimed. That basically means it's either Jack or it was passed to scum.
@Ghosting: Jack is V/LA, I believe. Until Wednesdayish.
@zomg: You're modconfirmed town. You might not live until toMorrow. Just keep that in mind.
Forgot to include that I'm v/la from Thursday until Sunday night. Going to a music festival so I'll be checking in maybe once or twice over the course of it. I'll be here tomorrow still though, so will do my best to contribute a little bit, and pick a few people I might unlock.
The other half of the point is that my information would be literally useless. It's a non-vanilla game. Mindreaver claimed Vanilla, so I tested that. It seemed to be the only way to get any sort of information before Ghosting unlocked me.
I was just curious about your experience level for [redacted] reasons. Remind me later.
scarbo's play makes more sense to me as either careless town or suicidal-from-Day-1 mafia. I'd honestly be surprised if he flipped scum with the way he's been playing, even if his behavior is abysmally scummy, because in that lens it almost looks like he wants to get lynched. And I highly doubt there are any roles in this game that want to get lynched.
Lynching Jack is better IMO because his slot is not and has not been useful for solving the game, in terms of having an active player producing content. He's another person I'd rather have been vigged, but I guess that's what we get for having a random vigshot floating around unaccounted for.
If I were faced with a Dayvig and enough pressure, I'd lynch him over you. If only because I enjoy your presence more.
We're nearing endgame, and he still has both of his votes.
It would be absurdly unfair for this game to have Neutrals who leave the game when they win AND a full-on scum Double Voter, which pretty much robs the town of two votes.
We're nearing endgame, and he still has both of his votes.
It would be absurdly unfair for this game to have Neutrals who leave the game when they win AND a full-on scum Double Voter, which pretty much robs the town of two votes.
Plus his behavior has been his town!self.
He's town.
That vote on me plus trying to not solve the game is town?
You targeted Mindreaver before he claimed vanilla, though. In fact, on D1 he basically claimed power because he told Proph we'd have a problem if he sprayed vanilla over there or whatever. He meant it a different way, but it confused me when he did claim vanilla because of it. I distinctly remember that. And that information wouldn't be totally useless. Scarbo claimed no action on N1, after all. In fact, they all claimed no action N1. If you had half-tracked any of them and gotten a result you would know they lied and they were (apparently) better scumspects than Mindreaver at the time.
But that's it then? Your PoE is Jack-the-medium because he's not game-solvey enough, Mindreaver for ???, and distantly Scarbo because it's probably not me?
Like. This is lylo. If we mislynch Jack for being lurky we're toast, period. Proph will leave before we can lynch the third scum member if we're wrong. Unless he cross shoots with the scum team every single night, in which case we might barely make it.
We'll see what Jack has to say when he gets back I guess.
You targeted Mindreaver before he claimed vanilla, though. In fact, on D1 he basically claimed power because he told Proph we'd have a problem if he sprayed vanilla over there or whatever. He meant it a different way, but it confused me when he did claim vanilla because of it. I distinctly remember that. And that information wouldn't be totally useless. Scarbo claimed no action on N1, after all. In fact, they all claimed no action N1. If you had half-tracked any of them and gotten a result you would know they lied and they were (apparently) better scumspects than Mindreaver at the time.
But that's it then? Your PoE is Jack-the-medium because he's not game-solvey enough, Mindreaver for ???, and distantly Scarbo because it's probably not me?
Like. This is lylo. If we mislynch Jack for being lurky we're toast, period. Proph will leave before we can lynch the third scum member if we're wrong. Unless he cross shoots with the scum team every single night, in which case we might barely make it.
We'll see what Jack has to say when he gets back I guess.
Ok 10 players left.
We lynch Town today.
9 players
Ghosting fufills win con.
Town dies
7 players
3 Town
3 Mafia
1 Proph
I guess Lylo.
Higher Probabilty.
4 Town
2 Mafia
1 Proph
or
5 Town
1 Mafia
1 Proph(Mafia)
Only way I see us being in lylo right now.
Is proph is lying about being neutral and is actually scum.
@D_V:
The problem with your math is you're not looking at when Proph is going to leave.
D4 with 10 alive.
Probably 3 scum/5 town/2 neutrals
We lynch town, N4.
3 scum/4 town/2 neutrals
Scum team shoots zomg, Proph vanillas in (Jack/Vaimes/Huntz), Ghosting unlocks in (D_V/Jack).
D5 with 8 alive.
3 scum/3 town/2 neutrals
We lynch scum, N5.
2 scum/3 town/2 neutrals
Scum team shoots me, Proph vanillas in (Jack/Vaimes/Huntz), Ghosting unlocks D_V or Jack.
Ghosting leaves at dawn.
D6 with 5 alive.
2 scum/2 town/1 neutral
We lynch scum again, N6.
1 scum/2 town/1 neutral
Scum team shoots town, Proph vanillas whoever is left.
Proph leaves at dawn.
D7 scum team victory.
1 scum/1 town.
If we mislynch toDay and Proph doesn't cross shoot with the scum team we lose even if we lynch Mafia consecutively after this.
And this is the best case for us where we only lynch players that are already vanilla. If we lynch Jack, Vaimes, or Huntz before Proph hits them and they flip town we lose at dawn on D6 instead of D7.
The only way this probably doesn't happen is if Huntz is town and doesn't get vanillaized, which is basically impossible unless we use a lynch Proph. I guess Proph could show us mercy by endgaming to the F3 instead of winning outright, but. That's basically all. If we mislynch, game is locked for scum unless Proph holsters. They just have to shoot me or zomg, then the other on N5, then any town while Proph ignores us and vanillaizes the PoE like he's been doing.
@hunt: why would you vote DV over Vaimes? There's no possible way DV could be scum and Vaimes town yet it is totally possible for Vaimes to be scum while DV is town. So why DV instead of Vaimes?
You targeted Mindreaver before he claimed vanilla, though. In fact, on D1 he basically claimed power because he told Proph we'd have a problem if he sprayed vanilla over there or whatever. He meant it a different way, but it confused me when he did claim vanilla because of it. I distinctly remember that. And that information wouldn't be totally useless. Scarbo claimed no action on N1, after all. In fact, they all claimed no action N1. If you had half-tracked any of them and gotten a result you would know they lied and they were (apparently) better scumspects than Mindreaver at the time.
But that's it then? Your PoE is Jack-the-medium because he's not game-solvey enough, Mindreaver for ???, and distantly Scarbo because it's probably not me?
Like. This is lylo. If we mislynch Jack for being lurky we're toast, period. Proph will leave before we can lynch the third scum member if we're wrong. Unless he cross shoots with the scum team every single night, in which case we might barely make it.
We'll see what Jack has to say when he gets back I guess.
I am pretty sure Mindreaver claimed Vanilla at some point on Day 1, or at least hinted at it. That's literally the only reason I picked him. I remember that much very distinctly.
Are you cross with me because the scumteam isn't interesting enough, or what? They're all that's left. Jack has yet to prove his ability, four Days into the game, so I don't really understand why it's out of this world for him to be mafia and lying.
Is it possible that I am misreading someone. Absolutely. It just happened not too long ago in OTG2, in fact. Does that mean I'm going to start looking into lynching someone I have a townread on over other people in the PoE pool? I could, but that way leads to paranoia, spiraling, and panic. I wouldn't even know where to begin if there aren't at least two mafia between my suspects.
If you're comfortable with the idea of me mercilessly pursuing your death if scarbo flips town, then sure, I'll consider taking the hand you've extended me. Think it over carefully.
I'm not cross with you. Just trying to solve the game, and I don't think it's Mindreaver.
Re: roles/set-up gaming, basically yeah. The team you're floating doesn't seem underpowered to you against a role cop, a tracker, an inventor, a partial ascetic, a motivator, a body guard, and shadow's weird-watcher shot? Not to mention whatever Tom, Cythare, NewName, and Kosa's unlocks were? Like, what even could Jack be if the team has a roleblocker and him as their only power against us? I know Mindreaver's unlock - it's not helpful against all of that and GJ confirmed he was vanilla.
So even if it is Jack/Mindreaver like you're trying to say, it's also either you or Scarbo. Nothing else makes sense in the set-up.
And are you actually townreading Scarbo?
Like, your PoE is just [Jack/Mindreaver].
And you're saying both have to be scum.
But who is their third?
Huntz?
Scarbo?
or Me?
Because from your PoV, it has to be one of the three.
And if it's not me or Huntz, it has to be Scarbo, right?
So why are you so adamantly against lynching him toDay?
Though I've been thinking it might actually be Huntz.
Proph has to take his vote from him at some point.
And if he's scum they lose a vote, then we lose a body when Proph leaves.
{Symmetry}
It's not enough to make me want him super dead, but it makes me think it's plausible and we shouldn't let him off the hook.
I need some time to read isos and stuff again. Maybe tomorrow.
Hopefully Jack posts something before I do that.
For the record, I'm reevaluating not panicking. We've been lynching lurkers and they've been flipping town. I don't really feel like throwing the game because we just shrugged and lynched Jack like we did Cythare and NewName instead of looking at the information we have.
Then it means I'm wrong on somebody. Not really a shocking revelation, with my overall scumhunting record.
I prefer to lynch someone I'm more sure on, and work with the associations from there if they flip scum. Because lynching through my townreads at this point is ??? not something I plan on doing when the only scum body we have to go on is Shockwave.
I don't think I've been adamantly against anything. All I asked was if you're sure you want me to lynch scarbo with you with your life potentially hanging in the balance.
Also I didn't at all consider the potential Proph/Hunt symmetry. Hm.
Ghosting is neutral and about to leave the game unless he's been lying
Proph is neutral and probably not leaving the game anytime soon
Silver is town, unless he's played me exceptionally well. GJ interactions also lean town.
Vaimes and D_V are tied together pretty hard. You could make a case for a scum!vaimes buddying D_V, but even D_V doesn't think that is likely
Hunt could be a double voting scum, but that seems hard to balance with the neutrals.
I know I'm town
Who knows on Jack
Scarbo was scummy yesterday, and I can't believe we aren't pushing him in light of his counterwagon flipping town.
So, my scumspects are as follows: jack/scarbo/vaimes/dv
Three of those four are pushing jack right now. After DV came out swinging at zomg instead, as the best lynch. Zomg definitely would have been in that scumspect pool. I'm also getting stuff thrown my way, as is proph, and hunt. That seems like fishing to me.
Now, the other possibility is that Silver and I are scum. We're pretty tied together now. Our partner would pretty clearly be Jack, since we're actively trying to kill scarbo right now (although D_V is the best information lynch out of the three, scarbo is just the best hedge if we HAVE to kill scum today, which we do).
It might also be one of the teams proposed by Vaimes/DV/Scarbo. But truthfully, I do not see a Hunt/Proph/Jack/???/Only 3 scum situation here. I think that's farfetched.
Finally, DV, explain your change from scarbo to jack today. By all means wait for Jack, but yesterday you were ready to lynch scarbo, INNN gets lynched instead, flips town, and suddenly you're on jack? Why? Because shadow and GJ also flipped town? Because that had no bearing on my jack/scarbo read, otherthan to further PoE down the pool of who could be scum.
I'll be honest, you guys are pushing Jack without him having said a single word today. So lets here your cases. It's not like you need him here to make them, apparently.
@hunt: why would you vote DV over Vaimes? There's no possible way DV could be scum and Vaimes town yet it is totally possible for Vaimes to be scum while DV is town. So why DV instead of Vaimes?
hunt, you need to respond to this.
It boils down to this: DV has proven to me through his behavior today that he is in fact the scummiest option we have left. It also doesn't help him that he was the first person to truly push my mislynch, which I have been waiting for over the last several days. As the scum get PoE'd out, they are gonna have to start pushing anyone they can. Look back at DV's play today, or find the nice concise post that Mind put together for us and take a peek at his actions. Then try to tell me with a straight face it looks townie. Go ahead, I'm waiting.
Could Vaimes be scum, particularly with DV. Hell yeah. But I am sure of DV after today's adventure, and not as sure on Vaimes.
How about you answer why you think Jack is scummy? What in his behavior has proven his guilt to you today? Oh, wait... well not today. How about previously then?
Also, how does Zomg's flip suddenly make me near the bottom of your PoE list? There doesn't seem to be a natural progression in that read.
Lastly, can you tell me how you have tried to use your role again this game? You were the one that claimed bus driver right? What were you trying to accomplish with your choices?
Silver I believe is town due to his very genuine, gamesolve-y posts, coupled with GJ's trust. This post, from Lil4LeafClover, makes me feel like she knew Silver was town:
Quote from Lil4leafclover »
#92 town vibes from Silver, could be a bit of my bias that my view on the claim seems to coincide with his. Though when I see a player who criticizes the claim/intent is telling me they are game solving, and that gives + to town credit
There is three scum in Huntzilla/D_V/Vaimes/Mindreaver/Jackrito/scarbo.
If Silver is to be believed, then I will trust him and not lynch Mindreaver. I am very wary of these role-based clearings, however. zomgarcwind is already an IC, and we have a cop ability and several players needing their trust. I believe that there is a way for the scum to circumvent these role-based clearings. Remember. Behavior is king.
With the IC revealing, I no longer believe Huntzilla to be town. We ran into this same problem in um. Vanillaville, where there was a werewolf doubler voter and an IC. I think it's likely that he is a double voter who gets the extra vote turned off in lylo.
I believe that one of Vaimes or DV to be scum, based off of that vote count. I do not believe that a five-man town wagon was also on NewName, since there have to be some buddies that did not want to get tied down to the Cythare mislynch.
I am thinking it is somewhere between Huntzilla/Vaimes/D_V? I really can't solve the game without Jackrito posting about utilizing his ability, and scarbo has just been a huge question mark this game.
Vote Vaimes, though. I have a slight feeling he is trying to power wolf his way through the game, and I've been very paranoid about his scum game now that Three Little Pigs ended.
Quote from D_V »
Proph why did you target scarbo again?
To advance my wincon.
Quote from Vaimes »
FTR, Proph would have been an infinitely better vig target. He's a claimed Neutral and he's not really invested in the game (or at least I haven't seen much of him recently, hi Proph).
Yeah, I'm really not invested in the game. I definitely would have been a great vig target.
@Proph:
I'm probably going to reveal Mindreaver's ability anyway so we all have all the info. It is lylo after all. I wanted to wait until Jack had posted, though.
Also, I don't think Huntz' vote is going to disappear. You're supposed to take it. It's a non-factional, non-unlocked ability.
Me (1.6)
Zomg (1.7)
GJ (1.9)
No Lynch (1.16)
Ghosting (1.21)
Shockwave (2.1)
Mindreaver (3.2)
Of these...
I'm town.
Zomg is an Innocent Child.
GJ is dead town.
No lynch is lol.
Ghosting is lol.
Shockwave he didn't push, he just said he thought there were two scum in [NewName/Shockwave/Mindreaver]. Then he said something about how Shock's interactions are all low key after he voted him.
Mindreaver is probably town.
So, yeah. Zomg and GJ are the ones I was thinking of, but yeah. The players he's tried to lynch this game are basically [Me, Zomg, GJ, Ghosting, Mindreaver] and I'm pretty sure there's no scum in that. Unless it's Ghosting I guess.
@Scarbo:
That's what I'm saying, though. You voted him to self-pres, that's fine. I'm not talking about your vote. At EoD1 you were like "He could be town" then at SoD2 you said "There's two scum in [Shockwave, NewName, Mindreaver]" then D3 you were like "No wait, he's town and his wagon sucks." It looks fake to me. But it's also beside the point. I don't want to talk to you about you, that's not going to get us anywhere. Talk to me about Vaimes. Did you read his iso? First two pages is fine. What do you think of his reads on those four players I pointed out?
My ability use cleared me to GJ. I used it on him N2 and he was able to rolecop Mindreaver and D_V the same night.
I'd go for Hunt instead of the winds turn that way, but jack makes much more sense than a double-voter don't you think?
Who is the last member though? Lets say jack is scum. Then what? As you just mentioned, Hunt/Me is your PoE pool, and there is at least one, possibly two scum left after Jack flips. So who do you think they could be?
Please read the first two pages of Vaimes' iso?
If you're town, I need your thoughts on his progression. Am I seeing things? Am I right?
If you're scum, you'll ignore me I guess.
Can anyone explain to me why I am getting flack for townies dying when I ALSO helped kill the only scum flip we have? I mean there was no need for scum!hunt to bus there. Shock was OBV!scum and was solidly going down. If you believe I am an alleged 1 of 3 scum!doublevoter, and I bussed a team mate for basically NO towncred, then I deserve to die for that terrible play. I mean I am a lulz!player, but that would just be stupid.
Let's kill DV for this crap agenda he's shoving down our mouths. Kill Vaimes for the clearly buddying townclear after DV flips scum. Then hopefully the game will be all but sown up.
@Proph, I don't know how likely it is that you will reach your win con right now. Would you be terribly opposed to just not spraying the 'nilla all over people and remaining in the game to help us stay afloat? It would force the scum to have to kill you or live with you, but would make it harder for you to win...
Vote DV
Vote DV
The thing I have not liked today from him has been his sudden thrusting of me into his bottom PoE. But, I can't say I'm surprised compared to the rest of the game. Seems about right actually.
you know what, quite possibly. stay tuned.
@hunt: why would you vote DV over Vaimes? There's no possible way DV could be scum and Vaimes town yet it is totally possible for Vaimes to be scum while DV is town. So why DV instead of Vaimes?
No. I'm done being accused of neutral hunting. I had very explicit reasons for not trusting ghosting, and that wasn't neutral hunting. That was I-don't-believe-ghosting-and-I-think-he's-lying-scum. Now that those issues have been resolved, I've accepted him as neutral. And yes, maybe I am rusty. It has been over 3 years since my last game I think, but I don't think I've been bad at my reads.
My town reads haven't changed other than maybe Scarbo.
Silver made some good points about my clear being really weak sauce. The Mindscrew thing is making me believe them.
I do feel certain Silver is town. I'm just going to believe him on Mind because of this. I'm taking the leap of faith.
Our Scum pool is.
Vaimes
Hunt
scarbo
Jack
Proph
That being said anyone voting me is ignoring the GJ and the Vaimes clear. Like please get gud.
N1: my ability was basically useless; I only get told "your target went somewhere" or "your target went nowhere"
N2: I used Kosa's invention
N3: I entertained the possibility of scum!Hunt, which I talked about briefly in an earlier post. This is infinitely more valuable information (potentially catching a scum Double Voter).
Moreover, tracking scarbo is dumb because of the massclaim. If something gets redirected, he's not going to be able to hide it.
Incidentally, silver, how often would you say you play mafia? Be honest now.
Hunt: please do not be dumb and get one of the two townfirmed players lynched, thanks.
I still can't see Hunt as scum, but it might make sense if the scum team really is that underpowered. To be honest though, I feel like that's reaching pretty hard when there are other, more obvious and likely options.
Proph is almost definitely not scum, it makes so much sense for there to be another neutral that mirrors my role. Although maybe he's scum and just mirrors my role? His role is definitely inherently anti-town, whereas mine is almost definitively neutral (since I may be required to unlock scum, for example).
Scarbo's one of my strongest scum reads still.
I can't tell if D_V is town thinking about the game or scum trying to work it out. I'll be honest that he's gone down from #1 scum read, but by no means have I cleared him or anything.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
FTR, Proph would have been an infinitely better vig target. He's a claimed Neutral and he's not really invested in the game (or at least I haven't seen much of him recently, hi Proph).
How do you say "almost definitely not scum" and "maybe he's scum" in the same breath and take that sentence seriously?
As in the alignment, or just as in how many games I've played? I've only been scum in a few 18/6 minute phase games. I've only been playing total for like... six months? Three completed long games, two on this site. I've played about a dozen of the really fast ones. Haven't had much of a break since I started, so pretty constantly if you're talking strictly frequency... when I wasn't in a long game I was playing turbos on weekends.
Anyway. Like I said to Scarbo, I don't want to talk to you about you. I'd like my scum reads to talk about each other. Nitpicking my points or whatever isn't going to change my mind. You don't need to talk about D_V obviously, he's modconfirmed to you. Talk to me about scarbo. Does his progression look legit to you? Would you be willing to lynch him with me? Why do you prefer to lynch Jack over him or Mindreaver?
And no, the person with Kosa's vig shot never claimed. That basically means it's either Jack or it was passed to scum.
@Ghosting: Jack is V/LA, I believe. Until Wednesdayish.
@zomg: You're modconfirmed town. You might not live until toMorrow. Just keep that in mind.
To read hunt.
Cause I want to lynch that.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
I was just curious about your experience level for [redacted] reasons. Remind me later.
scarbo's play makes more sense to me as either careless town or suicidal-from-Day-1 mafia. I'd honestly be surprised if he flipped scum with the way he's been playing, even if his behavior is abysmally scummy, because in that lens it almost looks like he wants to get lynched. And I highly doubt there are any roles in this game that want to get lynched.
Lynching Jack is better IMO because his slot is not and has not been useful for solving the game, in terms of having an active player producing content. He's another person I'd rather have been vigged, but I guess that's what we get for having a random vigshot floating around unaccounted for.
If I were faced with a Dayvig and enough pressure, I'd lynch him over you. If only because I enjoy your presence more.
We're nearing endgame, and he still has both of his votes.
It would be absurdly unfair for this game to have Neutrals who leave the game when they win AND a full-on scum Double Voter, which pretty much robs the town of two votes.
Plus his behavior has been his town!self.
He's town.
That vote on me plus trying to not solve the game is town?
Like hes legit not saying anything in that post.
But that's it then? Your PoE is Jack-the-medium because he's not game-solvey enough, Mindreaver for ???, and distantly Scarbo because it's probably not me?
Like. This is lylo. If we mislynch Jack for being lurky we're toast, period. Proph will leave before we can lynch the third scum member if we're wrong. Unless he cross shoots with the scum team every single night, in which case we might barely make it.
We'll see what Jack has to say when he gets back I guess.
Ok 10 players left.
We lynch Town today.
9 players
Ghosting fufills win con.
Town dies
7 players
3 Town
3 Mafia
1 Proph
I guess Lylo.
Higher Probabilty.
4 Town
2 Mafia
1 Proph
or
5 Town
1 Mafia
1 Proph(Mafia)
Only way I see us being in lylo right now.
Is proph is lying about being neutral and is actually scum.
@D_V:
The problem with your math is you're not looking at when Proph is going to leave.
D4 with 10 alive.
Probably 3 scum/5 town/2 neutrals
We lynch town, N4.
3 scum/4 town/2 neutrals
Scum team shoots zomg, Proph vanillas in (Jack/Vaimes/Huntz), Ghosting unlocks in (D_V/Jack).
D5 with 8 alive.
3 scum/3 town/2 neutrals
We lynch scum, N5.
2 scum/3 town/2 neutrals
Scum team shoots me, Proph vanillas in (Jack/Vaimes/Huntz), Ghosting unlocks D_V or Jack.
Ghosting leaves at dawn.
D6 with 5 alive.
2 scum/2 town/1 neutral
We lynch scum again, N6.
1 scum/2 town/1 neutral
Scum team shoots town, Proph vanillas whoever is left.
Proph leaves at dawn.
D7 scum team victory.
1 scum/1 town.
If we mislynch toDay and Proph doesn't cross shoot with the scum team we lose even if we lynch Mafia consecutively after this.
And this is the best case for us where we only lynch players that are already vanilla. If we lynch Jack, Vaimes, or Huntz before Proph hits them and they flip town we lose at dawn on D6 instead of D7.
The only way this probably doesn't happen is if Huntz is town and doesn't get vanillaized, which is basically impossible unless we use a lynch Proph. I guess Proph could show us mercy by endgaming to the F3 instead of winning outright, but. That's basically all. If we mislynch, game is locked for scum unless Proph holsters. They just have to shoot me or zomg, then the other on N5, then any town while Proph ignores us and vanillaizes the PoE like he's been doing.
Yeah that's a good point with proph I forgot that the longer the game goes he has more times to leave.
He did claim to have targeted Scarbo twice though.
And if Jack is already unlocked, Ghosting leaves regardless. He just needs you, I'm pretty sure.
hunt, you need to respond to this.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Are you cross with me because the scumteam isn't interesting enough, or what? They're all that's left. Jack has yet to prove his ability, four Days into the game, so I don't really understand why it's out of this world for him to be mafia and lying.
Is it possible that I am misreading someone. Absolutely. It just happened not too long ago in OTG2, in fact. Does that mean I'm going to start looking into lynching someone I have a townread on over other people in the PoE pool? I could, but that way leads to paranoia, spiraling, and panic. I wouldn't even know where to begin if there aren't at least two mafia between my suspects.
If you're comfortable with the idea of me mercilessly pursuing your death if scarbo flips town, then sure, I'll consider taking the hand you've extended me. Think it over carefully.
Re: roles/set-up gaming, basically yeah. The team you're floating doesn't seem underpowered to you against a role cop, a tracker, an inventor, a partial ascetic, a motivator, a body guard, and shadow's weird-watcher shot? Not to mention whatever Tom, Cythare, NewName, and Kosa's unlocks were? Like, what even could Jack be if the team has a roleblocker and him as their only power against us? I know Mindreaver's unlock - it's not helpful against all of that and GJ confirmed he was vanilla.
So even if it is Jack/Mindreaver like you're trying to say, it's also either you or Scarbo. Nothing else makes sense in the set-up.
And are you actually townreading Scarbo?
Like, your PoE is just [Jack/Mindreaver].
And you're saying both have to be scum.
But who is their third?
Huntz?
Scarbo?
or Me?
Because from your PoV, it has to be one of the three.
And if it's not me or Huntz, it has to be Scarbo, right?
So why are you so adamantly against lynching him toDay?
Though I've been thinking it might actually be Huntz.
Proph has to take his vote from him at some point.
And if he's scum they lose a vote, then we lose a body when Proph leaves.
{Symmetry}
It's not enough to make me want him super dead, but it makes me think it's plausible and we shouldn't let him off the hook.
I need some time to read isos and stuff again. Maybe tomorrow.
Hopefully Jack posts something before I do that.
For the record, I'm reevaluating not panicking. We've been lynching lurkers and they've been flipping town. I don't really feel like throwing the game because we just shrugged and lynched Jack like we did Cythare and NewName instead of looking at the information we have.
Still more likely at least 4.
But I think Proph might have just lied about his role.
Ok I agree with that too a point about the lurker thing. But the Cyth thing was a CFD and he also still has more posts than Jack.
Jacks basically gone unnoticed said nothing and done nothing.
I prefer to lynch someone I'm more sure on, and work with the associations from there if they flip scum. Because lynching through my townreads at this point is ??? not something I plan on doing when the only scum body we have to go on is Shockwave.
I don't think I've been adamantly against anything. All I asked was if you're sure you want me to lynch scarbo with you with your life potentially hanging in the balance.
Also I didn't at all consider the potential Proph/Hunt symmetry. Hm.
Jackrito (3): D_V, Vaimes, scarbo
scarbo (2): Silvercrys3467, Mindreaver
D_V (2): Huntzilla, Huntzilla
Not Voting (7): Ghosting, zomgarcwind, Jackrito, Prophylaxis
With 10 alive, it’s 6 to lynch. The deadline is Monday, November 14th at 11:59 pm EST.
Jackrito - For a few more days (Wednesday approx)
Ghosting - From Thu to Sun
Day 2: 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 FINAL
Day 3: 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 FINAL
Day 4: 4.1
So, my scumspects are as follows: jack/scarbo/vaimes/dv
Three of those four are pushing jack right now. After DV came out swinging at zomg instead, as the best lynch. Zomg definitely would have been in that scumspect pool. I'm also getting stuff thrown my way, as is proph, and hunt. That seems like fishing to me.
Now, the other possibility is that Silver and I are scum. We're pretty tied together now. Our partner would pretty clearly be Jack, since we're actively trying to kill scarbo right now (although D_V is the best information lynch out of the three, scarbo is just the best hedge if we HAVE to kill scum today, which we do).
It might also be one of the teams proposed by Vaimes/DV/Scarbo. But truthfully, I do not see a Hunt/Proph/Jack/???/Only 3 scum situation here. I think that's farfetched.
Finally, DV, explain your change from scarbo to jack today. By all means wait for Jack, but yesterday you were ready to lynch scarbo, INNN gets lynched instead, flips town, and suddenly you're on jack? Why? Because shadow and GJ also flipped town? Because that had no bearing on my jack/scarbo read, otherthan to further PoE down the pool of who could be scum.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
I'll know a lot more once he responds.
It boils down to this: DV has proven to me through his behavior today that he is in fact the scummiest option we have left. It also doesn't help him that he was the first person to truly push my mislynch, which I have been waiting for over the last several days. As the scum get PoE'd out, they are gonna have to start pushing anyone they can. Look back at DV's play today, or find the nice concise post that Mind put together for us and take a peek at his actions. Then try to tell me with a straight face it looks townie. Go ahead, I'm waiting.
Could Vaimes be scum, particularly with DV. Hell yeah. But I am sure of DV after today's adventure, and not as sure on Vaimes.
How about you answer why you think Jack is scummy? What in his behavior has proven his guilt to you today? Oh, wait... well not today. How about previously then?
Also, how does Zomg's flip suddenly make me near the bottom of your PoE list? There doesn't seem to be a natural progression in that read.
Lastly, can you tell me how you have tried to use your role again this game? You were the one that claimed bus driver right? What were you trying to accomplish with your choices?
zomgarcwind is the IC.
I am neutral. Ghosting I believe is neutral.
Silver I believe is town due to his very genuine, gamesolve-y posts, coupled with GJ's trust. This post, from Lil4LeafClover, makes me feel like she knew Silver was town:
There is three scum in Huntzilla/D_V/Vaimes/Mindreaver/Jackrito/scarbo.
If Silver is to be believed, then I will trust him and not lynch Mindreaver. I am very wary of these role-based clearings, however. zomgarcwind is already an IC, and we have a cop ability and several players needing their trust. I believe that there is a way for the scum to circumvent these role-based clearings. Remember. Behavior is king.
With the IC revealing, I no longer believe Huntzilla to be town. We ran into this same problem in um. Vanillaville, where there was a werewolf doubler voter and an IC. I think it's likely that he is a double voter who gets the extra vote turned off in lylo.
I believe that one of Vaimes or DV to be scum, based off of that vote count. I do not believe that a five-man town wagon was also on NewName, since there have to be some buddies that did not want to get tied down to the Cythare mislynch.
I am thinking it is somewhere between Huntzilla/Vaimes/D_V? I really can't solve the game without Jackrito posting about utilizing his ability, and scarbo has just been a huge question mark this game.
Vote Vaimes, though. I have a slight feeling he is trying to power wolf his way through the game, and I've been very paranoid about his scum game now that Three Little Pigs ended.
To advance my wincon.
Yeah, I'm really not invested in the game. I definitely would have been a great vig target.
I'm probably going to reveal Mindreaver's ability anyway so we all have all the info. It is lylo after all. I wanted to wait until Jack had posted, though.
Also, I don't think Huntz' vote is going to disappear. You're supposed to take it. It's a non-factional, non-unlocked ability.
How do you think that I'm scum, "But not sure" on Vaimes?
4 real?