I think the best way to treat this here is just that we have two lynches to hit one scum out of three players. Those players are (tom, Matowar77, Bur). If I can clear one of you then it'll make this game trivial.
@Huntzilla: What is your reasoning for tom being town, and me being town?
Tom has been actively trying to solve the game from his opening post. His playful "Tombot" persona does not feel forced in any way, and is actually what he said he would do in the sign up thread. He came up with a clear game winning plan. He has put a good amount of townie "oomph" behind his posts despite his self inflicted post restriction.
I was not as sold on you. I actually had you less town than Mato up until your big post that summed up your reads. Each player was reasoned short and concisely, and nothing read as a stretch or disingenuous. Your conclusions were similar to my own, and I figured this was because we were thinking of the game in the same way. The only difference being I am more certain of Tom, despite his difficulty to read, and less certain of Mato because of his newness to the game.
Mato has had less impact on the game, but has contributed some. Like you mentioned, the Iso vote is a bit of a scum tell, but Mato is a self proclaimed noob and these tells are less sure coming from someone new. I liked that he admitted in his first post that he didn't want to be in the "lylo that (tom's plan) creates" as it read genuine, however, there have been less of the moments as the game has gone on.
Bur is most likely the SK as I have gone over in my questioning of him.
I would have had shinen as the defector had he not been killed mainly because of PoE and lack of content.
Guys, we need to think of a new plan since defecting tonight will most likely mean that SK wins.
We have 5 players remaining. If we lynch one, one defect and SK kills non-defecting player, there's 2 player alive tomorrow, a prisoner and SK. SK wins.
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
Guys, we need to think of a new plan since defecting tonight will most likely mean that SK wins.
We have 5 players remaining. If we lynch one, one defect and SK kills non-defecting player, there's 2 player alive tomorrow, a prisoner and SK. SK wins.
This is all very obvious. :/
Bur, what did my responses to your questions tell you about your alignment?
Can we agree with each other to not defect? Defecting is a crapshoot, anyways, since the SK might target you.
>HYPOTHESIS
>>You guys are not going to like the end of this post
>LOSS OF SHINEN CHANGES OUR ODDS CALCULATION
WE CAN NO LONGER LYNCH AND CHOOSE A DEFECTOR.
>Odds of choosing SK for lynch or defection 1/5+1/4, or .45 for town win.
>Each town player has an additional 1/4 chance of individual win.
>>Else: SK win.
>Combining odds of town win and individual win gives each player .45+(.25·.55)=.5875 chance of winning.
ALTERNATE PLAN
Only choose one person today, to guarantee Day 2.
>Odds of choosing SK Day 1 = 1/5, or .2 for town win
>Odds of choosing SK Day 2 = 1/3, or .33333... for town win
>>Combined odds .53333... for town win
Changing the Day 1 lynch to a forced defection gives an additional (.2·.46666...)=.093333... for individual win
>Combined odds .626666...
Increases town win odds by .083333... and individual win odds by .03916666...
So, we are picking the most scummiest town player to instantly win the game?
While technically increasing our odds of winning by 9% is not trivial, I would be fairly comfortable foregoing the no lynch/choose defector plan to just lynch the scummiest player.
HOWEVER
This adds another element to the game:
>One of the remaining town players could defect and the rest of us lose.
By making it a defection rather than a lynch, that becomes non-viable.
Human selfishness is impossible to calculate. Human survival instinct less so.
If someone is defecting, choosing to defect as well has only negative possibilities.
tom: What is your view of the gamestate currently? Who do you want to lynch and why? Other than Hunt, is there anyone you are townreading?
It is especially hard to find scum this game.
>We are deprived of any interaction analysis by there only being one anti-town player.
>It is very easy to just focus on planning and mechanics (see exhibit A: me).
In order of likelihood of being SK, I currently have Bur>Matowar77>Prophylaxis>Huntzilla>tomsloger even after programmer insistence that Bur is town.
>THREAD REREAD COMPLETE
>ALL POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERED
>ODDS CONSIDERED
OK people. According to the moderator, this game is supposed to be fast-paced.
At first I thought it was going nowhere, but looking back at everyone's posts, we have actually already decided and just have not taken action yet.
So
>Two more players need to vote no lynch. This choice is clear.
>Bur will be tonight's defector.
>>Unless you would like to hand Tombot a win
>THREAD REREAD COMPLETE
>ALL POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERED
>ODDS CONSIDERED
OK people. According to the moderator, this game is supposed to be fast-paced.
At first I thought it was going nowhere, but looking back at everyone's posts, we have actually already decided and just have not taken action yet.
So
>Two more players need to vote no lynch. This choice is clear.
>Bur will be tonight's defector.
>>Unless you would like to hand Tombot a win
I'll agree with this plan.
Unvote, Vote No Lynch
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
@Proph: Nothing. The thing that tells me the most about my alignment is my Role PM.
But, seriously. Most of your answers were neutral. They don't smell like BS, but they don't really scream "town" to me. The only exception is your reasoning why you'd want to force Tom to defect, since it's the only thing that has something behind it.
Which brings me to me next question: Why did you want to force Tom the unreadable to defect instead of your #2 scumread?
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
[quote from="Bur »" url="http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/forum-games/mafia/683860-prisoners-dilemma-mafia-day-one?comment=70"]@Proph: Nothing. The thing that tells me the most about my alignment is my Role PM.
But, seriously. Most of your answers were neutral. They don't smell like BS, but they don't really scream "town" to me. The only exception is your reasoning why you'd want to force Tom to defect, since it's the only thing that has something behind it.
Which brings me to me next question: Why did you want to force Tom the unreadable to defect instead of your #2 scumread?[/quote]
This was the exact question I wanted to type after catching up.
Unvote Bur
I am on board with the defection plan. It is the safest and smartest play.
I would prefer to keep my town block in the game. I am not inclined to have Tom defect. I think Bur is the best bet still.
Are we waiting for matowar to weigh in for some reason?
>He said he would prefer random, but was open to player suggestions.
>Bur was his top scumread.
>He specifically said he did not want me, the only other candidate, to defect.
>I want it to be Bur.
>Huntzilla wants it to be Bur.
>Bur has to say he wants it to be Bur regardless of alignment.
Please submit your actions to me ASAP. Day will begin in 24 hours or after I have all actions, whichever comes first. If you fail to submit an action you will automatically Cooperate.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
We can't no lynch.
I'm still convinced of your townieness... and if you are the SK, well played Mr. Sloger.
I think Mato must be the SK.
Otherwise I have to believe you came into the thread right away playing this persona of "Tombot" in order to hide, which doesn't jive with what I know of Tom. Also you spent the entirety of the time coming up with plans for us to win, which would be counterproductive towards your wincon as the SK...
Then we just start to get into WIFOM territory.
Would like to hear something from Mato before I vote though.
1. Why do you think Prophylaxis was killed?
2. Did you consider the implications of the SK killing Bur last night?
3. Why were you wrong about Bur?
4. Do either of you think I might be the SK?
5. Why do you think you can read a robot?
6. Are you ok with the fact that I controlled this entire game?
7. What is, in your opinion, the single most important post of this game?
@Tom why did you not answer my question on the SK killing no one?
Why would I answer that question?
But yes. I have a post typed up for the possibility of the SK killing Bur. It is rad.
I will share it with everyone in postgame.
Please answer the numbered questionnaire.
You are not really in a LyLo situation. I am.
As you have both said, if I am the SK I already earned the win.
@Matowar77
I can answer your questions, since I am forcing you to reanswer questions in my format.
The greatest weakness of this robot form is that it must receive input in a certain way.
>Bur had had enough suspicion showed to him that not confirming him before LyLo would have just led to his lynch.
Getting it out of the way early still gave us a chance to win if he was town.
Which he was. So that worked out.
>We have no deadlines this game, so I can take however much time I need to QUESTION and ANALYZE toDay.
>>I believe that also answers your other question.
This game was by far most likely to end in this situation: three players remaining with one deciding between the other two.
Hastening it had very little downside.
1. Why do you think Prophylaxis was killed?
Proph was the most experienced person in the game.
2. Did you consider the implications of the SK killing Bur last night?
I did not. I don't think about night kills until after they happen, and then I analyze them.
3. Why were you wrong about Bur?
I'm wrong about Bur a lot, but this specific time was around some of his choices/actions.
4. Do either of you think I might be the SK?
Anything is possible at this point but I think it is highly unlikely. I think it has to be Mato.
5. Why do you think you can read a robot?
Because that robot is being played by one of the more transparent townies on the site.
6. Are you ok with the fact that I controlled this entire game?
It's too late to change it now if I wasn't okay with it, but I am fine with how it all went down. If you weren't controlling it I would be having a tough time right this second choosing.
7. What is, in your opinion, the single most important post of this game?
It would have to be your first set up analysis post, or Proph's big info post outlining all his reads.
Answers are in there. I don't like a couple of your questions in there, as they read a little smug and self aware. Namely 4,5, and 6
@Hunt You wanted me to defect? What made me seem scummy to you later on in the game?
I wondered if you would comment on that since you stated early on you didn't want to be here. Why were/are you fearing LYLO?
It was down to PoE, and I wanted you to defect because of that. Tom and Proph were clear townies, and I wanted to have them around today. Shinen was killed, which left you as the next in line after Bur.
We went with a chosen defection since we were unable to go with the chosen lynch and random defection that we were thinking of before the shinen death.
Answers are in there. I don't like a couple of your questions in there, as they read a little smug and self aware. Namely 4,5, and 6
>INPUT RECEIVED. ANALYSIS AND MORE QUESTIONS PENDING MATOWAR77 COMPLETING THE QUESTIONNAIRE.
>SECONDARY OBJECTIVE IN ALL MAFIA GAMES IS APPEARING TOWNIE.
>>OBJECTIVE COMPLETED.
>ALL QUESTIONS ARE CAREFULLY WORDED TO GET NEEDED INFORMATION, REGARDLESS OF HOW THOSE QUESTIONS MIGHT APPEAR.[/font]
Proph was the most experienced person in the game.
Quote from matowar77 »
1. Proph had me and Hunt as town and you as second scum after Bur, killing him after Bur leads to WIFOM as he was on everyone's town radar and had our final three split.
Huntzilla's answer is very shallow. It is completely true, but I don't think the complete reason.
Matowar's willingness to speculate why, but his conclusion pointing to me as SK, is a slight town point.
>For the record, I suspect Prophylaxis was killed more for appearances than anything. His townclear of Huntzilla made killing someone else a better play for Huntzilla and killing Prophylaxis a better play for Matowar ON THE SURFACE.
>>Going deeper makes the reverse the better play, and what I would expect from Huntzilla as SK.2. Did you consider the implications of the SK killing Bur last night?
Quote from huntzilla »
I did not. I don't think about night kills until after they happen, and then I analyze them.
Quote from matowar77 »
2. Yes we would probably have been forced to do nothing D2 and let the SK kill someone. It seems like it is beneficial to the SK because 4 people decreases the chances of finding the SK and if any townie is selfish the SK auto wins.
Technically speaking, killing Bur last night was the right play for the SK. I remained silent about this for obvious reasons, but Matowar's questions about it earlier were among his most important posts in the game.
His answer here reflects that, while Huntzilla professes to have not thought about it at all.
Huntzilla is null from this question, and Matowar is slightly town since he would have at least considered making the better statistical play as SK.3. Why were you wrong about Bur?
Quote from Huntzilla »
I'm wrong about Bur a lot, but this specific time was around some of his choices/actions.
Quote from matowar77 »
3. Aggressive players especially when they are being aggressive over a tiny point in a plan that is clearly well thought out is something that would strike me as dissent to cause chaos and maybe try and derail the plan, there is a difference between correctly pointing out relavent flaws and suggesting ways to improve on something and throwing insults over a small modification that is down to opinion.
I asked for clarification of Huntzilla's answer here, but I already know what he is talking about. That he blames himself still is a town point.
Matowar is showing that Bur deserved suspicion, which is the move as scum to remove blame. Which is odd, because the blame for Bur's death likely is on me.4. Do either of you think I might be the SK?
Quote from huntzilla »
Anything is possible at this point but I think it is highly unlikely. I think it has to be Mato.
Quote from matowar77 »
4. Yep, I was going to write down the reasons but then I realised that it doesn't matter you must be town due to point 6 or we lose.
These are both null. It is basically the only answer.
HOWEVER
>Huntzilla's suspicion of me for the questionnaire shows genuine worry. Town point.5. Why do you think you can read a robot?
Quote from huntzilla »
Because that robot is being played by one of the more transparent townies on the site.
Quote from matowar77 »
5. This robot has a sense of humor, he may be readable.
This is, again, null for both of them.
Through 5 questions, each suspect has 2 town points.6. Are you ok with the fact that I controlled this entire game?
Quote from huntzilla »
It's too late to change it now if I wasn't okay with it, but I am fine with how it all went down. If you weren't controlling it I would be having a tough time right this second choosing.
Quote from matowar77 »
6. Nope, I wanted you to defect first to make sure that you weren't the SK, the best way for scum to win this was to attempt to control the game or just not give the town enough to read, your plan did both of these. Sadly Shinen's death lowered town's chances considerably and forced me to have to consider you town, the lack of an extra day meant I couldn't waste time forcing you to defect since we would have Bur as a problem.
Matowar's answer here does not match his earlier annoyance that Bur was chosen as the defector.
Huntzilla makes another surface-level townie answer that is easily faked.
Scum point for Matowar.7. What is, in your opinion, the single most important post of this game?
Quote from huntzilla »
It would have to be your first set up analysis post, or Proph's big info post outlining all his reads.
Quote from matowar77 »
7. From a mod. Shinen's death. From a player? Proph's analysis post and subsequent T/S list. Someone should have though far enough ahead to make another set of posts similar to that, Proph painted a nice "Kill Me" on himself and no-one else did.)
//This last question is hard Tom's two posts could techinicallt be on there but they offered town no reads.
Huntzilla could definitely be buddying here, and Matowar's answer is completely correct. Town point for the shinen answer.
HOWEVER
>He is also buddying with his non-answer at the end.>TABULATING RESULT
>ASSIGNING POINTS
>RESULTS: INCONCLUSIVE
More questions forthcoming. Likely tonight or early tomorrow.
Any responses or comments?
Wouldn't the SK WANT to have it NOT be random in order to avoid being picked on scummy play? Doesn't randomization actually make it just as likely we will pick the scum?
Quote from huntzilla »
Are you the scum Bur? Trying to force the game one way so you won't be randomly selected?
Quote from huntzilla »
Are we going to ignore the randomization aspect now? Because if that's the case, than we are technically doing Bur's plan... which we are reading him as scummy for... among other reasons...
Quote from huntzilla »
it seemed pretty clear to me that you were scared of the plan. Which reeked of being the SK.
RECAP
>SK wants non-random. random good.
>SKBur wants non-random
>Bur wants non-random
>anyone scared of the plan must be SK
Quote from huntzilla »
I would like to lynch Bur and have Mato defect. This way we win today. I am totally convinced that both Tom and Proph are town and I feel the only two that make sense as the SK to me are Bur and Mato.
Huntzilla is playing to Prophylaxis and my egos here.
He should be more worried about Prophylaxis, and what are his feelings on whether he should be more worried about me?
Quote from huntzilla »
The only difference being I am more certain of Tom, despite his difficulty to read
Quote from huntzilla »
Tom the unreadable
Quote from huntzilla »
Because that robot is being played by one of the more transparent townies on the site.
>ERROR
COMPLETE TURNAROUND
In context, Huntzilla said it was hard to read me in comments to Prophylaxis, who talked about my unreadability.
But when it suited him to be sure of a read, he was.
Quote from huntzilla »
Ok I see what you are doing and I would be on board... NORMALLY. But I just defended your plan, that you are now immediately veering away from by going after someone scummy.
>IF this mistake was contrived, it is both buddying and suspicion.
>ELSE why would he start with that first sentence?
Quote from Matowar77 »
//Haha! Somehow we had a single defector 5/7 GG
Shows that Matowar was thinking about defections.
>Not that the SK would not, but an EVIL FORCE commenting on that would have been hoping for more and I think would not have worded it like this.
Quote from Matowar77 »
Whoah whoah whoah my robotic buddy
Theoretically, the SK would tend to avoid such obvious buddying. Matowar's newness may void this
Quote from Matowar77 »
I think he thought the prisoner's win resolved before the SK kill It's impossible for the SK and all town to win I'm fairly certain.
The way he is thinking about the game here is pretty thoroughly townie.
Quote from Matowar77 »
Tombot won't mind being defector number one then? Either this plan works or you're a really ballsy SK, your plan will work with or without you and I'd like to be sure it's solid :Grin:
Again, pretty solidly town thinking.
Quote from Matowar77 »
The random part really doesn't make too much of a difference
Contrasting this with Huntzilla's comments on randomness is key. >CALCULATING PROBABILITIES
>TABULATING REREAD RESULTS
>PROGRAMMER OVERRIDE
>>come on man. you have to do my taxes. you have enough information here. no more questions.
>ADDITIONAL PROGRAMMER COMMENTS
>>yolo mother****ers. lets do this
For his obsession with randomization, for talking out of both sides of his mouth, and for manipulating the conversation to be read as town. Vote: Huntzilla
@Matowar77
You win either way. Congratulations on a fantastic game.
Especially if you are the SK.
@Huntzilla
You lose either way.
If you are the SK, your fatal flaw was playing to my programmer's rather large ego.
If you are town, this loss is on me.
PROGRAM COMPLETE.
HOW GREAT WOULD IT BE IF I WAS THE SERIAL KILLER?
>THREAD REREAD COMPLETE
>ALL POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERED
>ODDS CONSIDERED
OK people. According to the moderator, this game is supposed to be fast-paced.
At first I thought it was going nowhere, but looking back at everyone's posts, we have actually already decided and just have not taken action yet.
So
>Two more players need to vote no lynch. This choice is clear.
>Bur will be tonight's defector.
>>Unless you would like to hand Tombot a win
I'd prefer that if we start nominating people to defect that you wouldn't defect. You are ATM my top town read and I'd prefer to see you stick around longer to make my PoE easier.
Wouldn't the SK WANT to have it NOT be random in order to avoid being picked on scummy play? Doesn't randomization actually make it just as likely we will pick the scum?
Quote from huntzilla »
Are you the scum Bur? Trying to force the game one way so you won't be randomly selected?
Quote from huntzilla »
Are we going to ignore the randomization aspect now? Because if that's the case, than we are technically doing Bur's plan... which we are reading him as scummy for... among other reasons...
Quote from huntzilla »
it seemed pretty clear to me that you were scared of the plan. Which reeked of being the SK.
RECAP
>SK wants non-random. random good.
>SKBur wants non-random
>Bur wants non-random
>anyone scared of the plan must be SK
Quote from huntzilla »
I would like to lynch Bur and have Mato defect. This way we win today. I am totally convinced that both Tom and Proph are town and I feel the only two that make sense as the SK to me are Bur and Mato.
Huntzilla is playing to Prophylaxis and my egos here.
He should be more worried about Prophylaxis, and what are his feelings on whether he should be more worried about me?
Quote from huntzilla »
The only difference being I am more certain of Tom, despite his difficulty to read
Quote from huntzilla »
Tom the unreadable
Quote from huntzilla »
Because that robot is being played by one of the more transparent townies on the site.
>ERROR
COMPLETE TURNAROUND
In context, Huntzilla said it was hard to read me in comments to Prophylaxis, who talked about my unreadability.
But when it suited him to be sure of a read, he was.
Quote from huntzilla »
Ok I see what you are doing and I would be on board... NORMALLY. But I just defended your plan, that you are now immediately veering away from by going after someone scummy.
>IF this mistake was contrived, it is both buddying and suspicion.
>ELSE why would he start with that first sentence?
Quote from Matowar77 »
//Haha! Somehow we had a single defector 5/7 GG
Shows that Matowar was thinking about defections.
>Not that the SK would not, but an EVIL FORCE commenting on that would have been hoping for more and I think would not have worded it like this.
Quote from Matowar77 »
Whoah whoah whoah my robotic buddy
Theoretically, the SK would tend to avoid such obvious buddying. Matowar's newness may void this
Quote from Matowar77 »
I think he thought the prisoner's win resolved before the SK kill It's impossible for the SK and all town to win I'm fairly certain.
The way he is thinking about the game here is pretty thoroughly townie.
Quote from Matowar77 »
Tombot won't mind being defector number one then? Either this plan works or you're a really ballsy SK, your plan will work with or without you and I'd like to be sure it's solid :Grin:
Again, pretty solidly town thinking.
Quote from Matowar77 »
The random part really doesn't make too much of a difference
Contrasting this with Huntzilla's comments on randomness is key. >CALCULATING PROBABILITIES
>TABULATING REREAD RESULTS
>PROGRAMMER OVERRIDE
>>come on man. you have to do my taxes. you have enough information here. no more questions.
>ADDITIONAL PROGRAMMER COMMENTS
>>yolo mother****ers. lets do this
For his obsession with randomization, for talking out of both sides of his mouth, and for manipulating the conversation to be read as town. Vote: Huntzilla
@Matowar77
You win either way. Congratulations on a fantastic game.
Especially if you are the SK.
@Huntzilla
You lose either way.
If you are the SK, your fatal flaw was playing to my programmer's rather large ego.
If you are town, this loss is on me.
PROGRAM COMPLETE.
HOW GREAT WOULD IT BE IF I WAS THE SERIAL KILLER?
This is less than optimal as I'm on mobile and at work but I want Mato to read this before lynching.
Tom played us, and played us well Mato. His sudden turn on me is to appear town up until the end. He's been trolling us the entire game. His plan is obviously to go with the least experienced player against his 100% town read! He set this up yesterday when he mentioned how he ignored my scumminess. If he truly believed I was scummy, why not call out any of the posts at the time? Look at the last line in his latest post. He's clearly taunting us! Read through again with a lens on Tom being scum and trolling, and you will see the truth.
I'm sorry I was wrong about you Mato! But do not let the scum win. Vote Tom
Just few things:
- Tom, your math was off. (Since conditional probability is a thing and you ignored it.)
- I apparently was really wrong about Proph. I figured that you were scum due to you being so detached and not even batting at my "Let's lynch me and have Proph defect" plan.
- Seriously guys (especially Tom), randomness is bad. It allows scum to hide behind it and avoid getting caught, since using "random" as an excuse for one's actions allows them to avoid responsibility. Besides, I was trying to use defection as a weapon against scum to see if there's anyone whose actions don't match their words (aka. if someone says that they want to defect but their actions are in contradiction with this).
- Hunt played better than usually as scum. Congrats.
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
and yeah, i didnt do the work, but i know conditional probability.
i was clearly betting on no one wanting to check my math and the SK just doing what i told him.
- Seriously guys (especially Tom), randomness is bad. It allows scum to hide behind it and avoid getting caught, since using "random" as an excuse for one's actions allows them to avoid responsibility.
also, just wanted to say that i wouldnt have figured it out in the end without the random stuff.
but i still think that randomly choosing the defector was better back when we had 6 people. incentivizing drawing scumreads is not something i was interested in.
ive lost the post i had ready if Day 2 started with 4, but basically:
i was going to vote no lynch again. that would make me the only lynch candidate and hopefully that wouldnt have happened.
i would promise not to defect that Night, putting the other two townies in an actual prisoner's dilemma.
The SK would then be forced to either
A: no kill.
A1: no one defects. Repeat.
A2: one townie defects. Lylo.
A3: both townies defect. SK wins.
B: kill me
B1: no on defects. Lylo.
B2: one or both townies defect. SK wins.
C: kill another townie
C1: no one defects. Lylo.
C2: the kill target defects. Lylo.
C3: other townie (or both) defects. SK Wins.
i tried to craft the post in a way that both townies would realize they had to cooperate.
then i was totally going to defect. for the lulz.
This game went hilariously with the N0 win. Good play from all. Things like Tom's post there were what I secretly was hoping would happen with this setup, so even though it turned out to be kind of bland after N0, I'm happy that people were at least thinking along those lines.
This setup is probably not super balanced, but I didn't actually math it out at all. I did think about giving the SK more power to counteract things but decided not to due to the principle of not overcomplicating things.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
I really suggest you to stop using "I can't figure this out so it must be scummy" in future as a reasoning.
I know I'm not really good player, but even I know better than that. Keep digging deeper until you either find the town or scum mindset behind something or come to realise that it's a null tell.
I hope you realize now that it was me having to cover my tracks as the SK and use similar Hunt logic. I had harped on in so I had to keep rolling with it.
Tom has been actively trying to solve the game from his opening post. His playful "Tombot" persona does not feel forced in any way, and is actually what he said he would do in the sign up thread. He came up with a clear game winning plan. He has put a good amount of townie "oomph" behind his posts despite his self inflicted post restriction.
I was not as sold on you. I actually had you less town than Mato up until your big post that summed up your reads. Each player was reasoned short and concisely, and nothing read as a stretch or disingenuous. Your conclusions were similar to my own, and I figured this was because we were thinking of the game in the same way. The only difference being I am more certain of Tom, despite his difficulty to read, and less certain of Mato because of his newness to the game.
Mato has had less impact on the game, but has contributed some. Like you mentioned, the Iso vote is a bit of a scum tell, but Mato is a self proclaimed noob and these tells are less sure coming from someone new. I liked that he admitted in his first post that he didn't want to be in the "lylo that (tom's plan) creates" as it read genuine, however, there have been less of the moments as the game has gone on.
Bur is most likely the SK as I have gone over in my questioning of him.
I would have had shinen as the defector had he not been killed mainly because of PoE and lack of content.
We have 5 players remaining. If we lynch one, one defect and SK kills non-defecting player, there's 2 player alive tomorrow, a prisoner and SK. SK wins.
Bur, what did my responses to your questions tell you about your alignment?
Can we agree with each other to not defect? Defecting is a crapshoot, anyways, since the SK might target you.
I want Matowar to post more.
>>You guys are not going to like the end of this post
>LOSS OF SHINEN CHANGES OUR ODDS CALCULATION
WE CAN NO LONGER LYNCH AND CHOOSE A DEFECTOR.
>Odds of choosing SK for lynch or defection 1/5+1/4, or .45 for town win.
>Each town player has an additional 1/4 chance of individual win.
>>Else: SK win.
>Combining odds of town win and individual win gives each player .45+(.25·.55)=.5875 chance of winning.
ALTERNATE PLAN
Only choose one person today, to guarantee Day 2.
>Odds of choosing SK Day 1 = 1/5, or .2 for town win
>Odds of choosing SK Day 2 = 1/3, or .33333... for town win
>>Combined odds .53333... for town win
Changing the Day 1 lynch to a forced defection gives an additional (.2·.46666...)=.093333... for individual win
>Combined odds .626666...
Increases town win odds by .083333... and individual win odds by .03916666...
Vote: No Lynch
Or if we choose the SK, making them unable to defect.
@Matowar: What are your thoughts on Bur and tom? Who would you like to lynch (or force-defect, in this case)?
HOWEVER
This adds another element to the game:
>One of the remaining town players could defect and the rest of us lose.
By making it a defection rather than a lynch, that becomes non-viable.
Human selfishness is impossible to calculate. Human survival instinct less so.
If someone is defecting, choosing to defect as well has only negative possibilities.
I'm for a defection.
tom: What is your view of the gamestate currently? Who do you want to lynch and why? Other than Hunt, is there anyone you are townreading?
>We are deprived of any interaction analysis by there only being one anti-town player.
>It is very easy to just focus on planning and mechanics (see exhibit A: me).
In order of likelihood of being SK, I currently have Bur>Matowar77>Prophylaxis>Huntzilla>tomsloger even after programmer insistence that Bur is town.
>ALL POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERED
>ODDS CONSIDERED
OK people. According to the moderator, this game is supposed to be fast-paced.
At first I thought it was going nowhere, but looking back at everyone's posts, we have actually already decided and just have not taken action yet.
So
>Two more players need to vote no lynch. This choice is clear.
>Bur will be tonight's defector.
>>Unless you would like to hand Tombot a win
I'll agree with this plan.
Unvote, Vote No Lynch
Bur (1): Hunt
No Lynch (2): Tom, Bur
Bur: Can you answer my question here?
But, seriously. Most of your answers were neutral. They don't smell like BS, but they don't really scream "town" to me. The only exception is your reasoning why you'd want to force Tom to defect, since it's the only thing that has something behind it.
Which brings me to me next question: Why did you want to force Tom the unreadable to defect instead of your #2 scumread?
But, seriously. Most of your answers were neutral. They don't smell like BS, but they don't really scream "town" to me. The only exception is your reasoning why you'd want to force Tom to defect, since it's the only thing that has something behind it.
Which brings me to me next question: Why did you want to force Tom the unreadable to defect instead of your #2 scumread?[/quote]
This was the exact question I wanted to type after catching up.
Unvote Bur
I am on board with the defection plan. It is the safest and smartest play.
I would prefer to keep my town block in the game. I am not inclined to have Tom defect. I think Bur is the best bet still.
>He said he would prefer random, but was open to player suggestions.
>Bur was his top scumread.
>He specifically said he did not want me, the only other candidate, to defect.
>I want it to be Bur.
>Huntzilla wants it to be Bur.
>Bur has to say he wants it to be Bur regardless of alignment.
Somebody vote no lynch.
Vote No Lynch
It is now Night One. No more posting.
Please submit your actions to me ASAP. Day will begin in 24 hours or after I have all actions, whichever comes first. If you fail to submit an action you will automatically Cooperate.
Bur was the sole defector and won the game.
Prophylaxis was killed.
both were prisoners!
it is now Day Two. with three alive its two to lynch!
(I'll make this look nicer later; on mobile)
>Huntzilla. Matowar77.
What to do...
We can't no lynch.
I'm still convinced of your townieness... and if you are the SK, well played Mr. Sloger.
I think Mato must be the SK.
Otherwise I have to believe you came into the thread right away playing this persona of "Tombot" in order to hide, which doesn't jive with what I know of Tom. Also you spent the entirety of the time coming up with plans for us to win, which would be counterproductive towards your wincon as the SK...
Then we just start to get into WIFOM territory.
Would like to hear something from Mato before I vote though.
Where did your reread get you?
>LOADING ENDGAME SCENARIOS.
>ANALYSING BEHAVIOR
WILL RETURN WITH QUESTIONS FOR BOTH OF YOU.
>MORE INFORMATION REQUIRED.
PLEASE FILL OUT THIS HANDY QUESTIONNAIRE.
2. Did you consider the implications of the SK killing Bur last night?
3. Why were you wrong about Bur?
4. Do either of you think I might be the SK?
5. Why do you think you can read a robot?
6. Are you ok with the fact that I controlled this entire game?
7. What is, in your opinion, the single most important post of this game?
But yes. I have a post typed up for the possibility of the SK killing Bur. It is rad.
I will share it with everyone in postgame.
Please answer the numbered questionnaire.
You are not really in a LyLo situation. I am.
As you have both said, if I am the SK I already earned the win.
I can answer your questions, since I am forcing you to reanswer questions in my format.
The greatest weakness of this robot form is that it must receive input in a certain way.
>Bur had had enough suspicion showed to him that not confirming him before LyLo would have just led to his lynch.
Getting it out of the way early still gave us a chance to win if he was town.
Which he was. So that worked out.
>We have no deadlines this game, so I can take however much time I need to QUESTION and ANALYZE toDay.
>>I believe that also answers your other question.
This game was by far most likely to end in this situation: three players remaining with one deciding between the other two.
Hastening it had very little downside.
I wondered if you would comment on that since you stated early on you didn't want to be here. Why were/are you fearing LYLO?
It was down to PoE, and I wanted you to defect because of that. Tom and Proph were clear townies, and I wanted to have them around today. Shinen was killed, which left you as the next in line after Bur.
We went with a chosen defection since we were unable to go with the chosen lynch and random defection that we were thinking of before the shinen death.
>SECONDARY OBJECTIVE IN ALL MAFIA GAMES IS APPEARING TOWNIE.
>>OBJECTIVE COMPLETED.
>ALL QUESTIONS ARE CAREFULLY WORDED TO GET NEEDED INFORMATION, REGARDLESS OF HOW THOSE QUESTIONS MIGHT APPEAR.[/font]
>Please go deeper with this answer.
>>Provide examples if possible.
Huntzilla's answer is very shallow. It is completely true, but I don't think the complete reason.
Matowar's willingness to speculate why, but his conclusion pointing to me as SK, is a slight town point.
>For the record, I suspect Prophylaxis was killed more for appearances than anything. His townclear of Huntzilla made killing someone else a better play for Huntzilla and killing Prophylaxis a better play for Matowar ON THE SURFACE.
>>Going deeper makes the reverse the better play, and what I would expect from Huntzilla as SK.
2. Did you consider the implications of the SK killing Bur last night?
Technically speaking, killing Bur last night was the right play for the SK. I remained silent about this for obvious reasons, but Matowar's questions about it earlier were among his most important posts in the game.
His answer here reflects that, while Huntzilla professes to have not thought about it at all.
Huntzilla is null from this question, and Matowar is slightly town since he would have at least considered making the better statistical play as SK.
3. Why were you wrong about Bur?
I asked for clarification of Huntzilla's answer here, but I already know what he is talking about. That he blames himself still is a town point.
Matowar is showing that Bur deserved suspicion, which is the move as scum to remove blame. Which is odd, because the blame for Bur's death likely is on me.
4. Do either of you think I might be the SK?
These are both null. It is basically the only answer.
HOWEVER
>Huntzilla's suspicion of me for the questionnaire shows genuine worry. Town point.
5. Why do you think you can read a robot?
This is, again, null for both of them.
Through 5 questions, each suspect has 2 town points.
6. Are you ok with the fact that I controlled this entire game?
Matowar's answer here does not match his earlier annoyance that Bur was chosen as the defector.
Huntzilla makes another surface-level townie answer that is easily faked.
Scum point for Matowar.
7. What is, in your opinion, the single most important post of this game?
Huntzilla could definitely be buddying here, and Matowar's answer is completely correct. Town point for the shinen answer.
HOWEVER
>He is also buddying with his non-answer at the end.
>TABULATING RESULT
>ASSIGNING POINTS
>RESULTS: INCONCLUSIVE
More questions forthcoming. Likely tonight or early tomorrow.
Any responses or comments?
>SK wants non-random. random good.
>SKBur wants non-random
>Bur wants non-random
>anyone scared of the plan must be SK Huntzilla is playing to Prophylaxis and my egos here.
He should be more worried about Prophylaxis, and what are his feelings on whether he should be more worried about me? >ERROR
COMPLETE TURNAROUND
In context, Huntzilla said it was hard to read me in comments to Prophylaxis, who talked about my unreadability.
But when it suited him to be sure of a read, he was. >IF this mistake was contrived, it is both buddying and suspicion.
>ELSE why would he start with that first sentence?
Shows that Matowar was thinking about defections.
>Not that the SK would not, but an EVIL FORCE commenting on that would have been hoping for more and I think would not have worded it like this. Theoretically, the SK would tend to avoid such obvious buddying. Matowar's newness may void this The way he is thinking about the game here is pretty thoroughly townie. Again, pretty solidly town thinking. Contrasting this with Huntzilla's comments on randomness is key.
>CALCULATING PROBABILITIES
>TABULATING REREAD RESULTS
>PROGRAMMER OVERRIDE
>>come on man. you have to do my taxes. you have enough information here. no more questions.
>ADDITIONAL PROGRAMMER COMMENTS
>>yolo mother****ers. lets do this
For his obsession with randomization, for talking out of both sides of his mouth, and for manipulating the conversation to be read as town.
Vote: Huntzilla
@Matowar77
You win either way. Congratulations on a fantastic game.
Especially if you are the SK.
@Huntzilla
You lose either way.
If you are the SK, your fatal flaw was playing to my programmer's rather large ego.
If you are town, this loss is on me.
PROGRAM COMPLETE.
HOW GREAT WOULD IT BE IF I WAS THE SERIAL KILLER? RECAP
This is less than optimal as I'm on mobile and at work but I want Mato to read this before lynching.
Tom played us, and played us well Mato. His sudden turn on me is to appear town up until the end. He's been trolling us the entire game. His plan is obviously to go with the least experienced player against his 100% town read! He set this up yesterday when he mentioned how he ignored my scumminess. If he truly believed I was scummy, why not call out any of the posts at the time? Look at the last line in his latest post. He's clearly taunting us! Read through again with a lens on Tom being scum and trolling, and you will see the truth.
I'm sorry I was wrong about you Mato! But do not let the scum win.
Vote Tom
Good game town...
My fear of a snap vote from Mato lost me the game....
Next time, poise instead of poison.
True... but it didn't fit my argument Tom. Lol
congrats to the town.
I can clean this up later.
Good game to him.
Just few things:
- Tom, your math was off. (Since conditional probability is a thing and you ignored it.)
- I apparently was really wrong about Proph. I figured that you were scum due to you being so detached and not even batting at my "Let's lynch me and have Proph defect" plan.
- Seriously guys (especially Tom), randomness is bad. It allows scum to hide behind it and avoid getting caught, since using "random" as an excuse for one's actions allows them to avoid responsibility. Besides, I was trying to use defection as a weapon against scum to see if there's anyone whose actions don't match their words (aka. if someone says that they want to defect but their actions are in contradiction with this).
- Hunt played better than usually as scum. Congrats.
and yeah, i didnt do the work, but i know conditional probability.
i was clearly betting on no one wanting to check my math and the SK just doing what i told him.
great game all.
but i still think that randomly choosing the defector was better back when we had 6 people. incentivizing drawing scumreads is not something i was interested in.
ive lost the post i had ready if Day 2 started with 4, but basically:
i was going to vote no lynch again. that would make me the only lynch candidate and hopefully that wouldnt have happened.
i would promise not to defect that Night, putting the other two townies in an actual prisoner's dilemma.
The SK would then be forced to either
A: no kill.
A1: no one defects. Repeat.
A2: one townie defects. Lylo.
A3: both townies defect. SK wins.
B: kill me
B1: no on defects. Lylo.
B2: one or both townies defect. SK wins.
C: kill another townie
C1: no one defects. Lylo.
C2: the kill target defects. Lylo.
C3: other townie (or both) defects. SK Wins.
i tried to craft the post in a way that both townies would realize they had to cooperate.
then i was totally going to defect. for the lulz.
This game went hilariously with the N0 win. Good play from all. Things like Tom's post there were what I secretly was hoping would happen with this setup, so even though it turned out to be kind of bland after N0, I'm happy that people were at least thinking along those lines.
This setup is probably not super balanced, but I didn't actually math it out at all. I did think about giving the SK more power to counteract things but decided not to due to the principle of not overcomplicating things.
Don't tell me that! I was torn between killing you and killing Tom, and I thought you had a higher likelihood of turning against my towniness...
With that said, wonderfully done Tom. That was a great catch I did not expect.
And finally, good choice Mato. Not too shabby for not wanting to be in LYLO!
I hope you realize now that it was me having to cover my tracks as the SK and use similar Hunt logic. I had harped on in so I had to keep rolling with it.