im not fully satisfied with JD, but im gonna reign it back. i was stuck trying to modgame and i really just have no ******* idea.
im assuming he gave up his vote for something, so that seems null.
I'm a little suspicious now that we have one confirmed vote-metalmind. In the books, there was always a pair (push and pull, seek and hide, etc). It's possible to have a second, opposite, power (one is a double voter and one nullifies a vote against them or something like that).
We don't see Killjoy and Hunger voting yet either. But you're the only one playing games (I would vote but I'm not going to on principle). In light of JDs claim, and confirmation, I'd like to see if you vote is counted.
Jd's claim is interesting, but ultimately null. At first I thought the not voting thing was permanent, but it looks like it's meant to be a drawback for charging which I could imagine seeing on town, scum, or even neutral !
Behavior-wise I don't see jd doing anything that jumps out as scummy in his recent posts. I'm willing to believe that the no-lynch stuff in RVS was a townie getting fixated on mechanics for now.
I do remain a little suspicious due to his association with Rhand. It's not so much the fact that Rhand defended him, but that he tried to do it while seeming like he wasn't trying to do it.
Jd, I think you should still use your vote or FoS's instead of just being a treestump toDay. After all, refusing to accept limitations and fighting the power is simply the mafia way.
Quote from proph »
@Atog (I'll call you Atog to make you scumread me :P): I agree with your read on tom (in that his play in Stargate made me scared of his scum game), but I feel like it's a bit too early to call associative reads with Rhand. I don't agree with your point on Rhand yet.
Calling me Atog and disagreeing with me in one post, can you even BE any more scummy : p I'll concede that this pair isn't as likely as when I brought it up earlier, but I'll be keeping an eye out.
Next up to bat is Shinen. I'll examine his posts when I get back from doing various Things.
Just popping in to say I'm too tired for mafia.
I fiiiinally have a day off tomorrow, so I'll catch up.
Seriously, only giving myself 1 day of rest after my cruise and then start fulltime local guiding in 3 different cities is a tad too much. I fall asleep where I stand.
I saw your first post as non committal, the coach and back pedal, *facepalm on mispelling first time*, post felt like similiar non committal behaviour hence the word more. While the first post isn't strictly fencesitting I have them lumped in the same basket.
Hm...
Ok fair enough.
Unvote
Willing to let it play out and see what happens as we move forward.
I'm a little suspicious now that we have one confirmed vote-metalmind. In the books, there was always a pair (push and pull, seek and hide, etc). It's possible to have a second, opposite, power (one is a double voter and one nullifies a vote against them or something like that).
We don't see Killjoy and Hunger voting yet either. But you're the only one playing games (I would vote but I'm not going to on principle). In light of JDs claim, and confirmation, I'd like to see if you vote is counted.
That's a fair request. Not why I'm not wanting to put my vote down, but here you go:
Vote: Huntzilla
Votecount
(Before anybody tries to read anything into the target, I'm just putting it the same place JD tried to, I'll unvote once we have a count.)
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
EDH: UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern WWWHatebearsWWW
Reconcile these two statements, please? Why do you think Huntzilla is scum, and why are tom and I town?
In addition, if you think Huntzilla is scum, why aren't you voting him?
I dislike Shinen's post - it falls into the same trap as Mindreaver's posts as being light on analysis and heavy on general information. And I offer him a similar question - if you don't like jd as town, then why are you not voting him?
--
It's true that page 1 doesn't necessarily lend itself to a lot of analysis, but I was kind of expecting you to play around/joke in RVS, instead of adding to jd's optimization discussion. It set off warning lights in my head, since when I see that behavior not in RVS I scumread it.
I think Tordeck will come and expand on his point when it's necessary for him to do so.
The game is less than 48 hours old, so I don't expect too much of others yet.
theres some inconsistency here. its ok for tordeck to say nothing, but mindreaver is scummy for actually trying to say something 50 posts earlier?
I think he's town because a scum member having no vote is basically making them start with one man down.
this has nothing to do with proph really, but we have new information and this looks a little silly now, regardless of JD's alignmentok. now we get to the theory.
i asked proph about his best scum game. i had already read the invitational, but the actual important question was which scumgame did proph feel he did best in.
the worst part of that game for him was Day 1, when he got run up pretty close to a lynch. so if hes thinking about that scum game and trying to improve on it, what he has to do is act the same but avoid that initial suspicion.
ok, that claim is a great way to do that. thats a thing. but it doesnt mean anything on its own. is proph acting similarly otherwise?
well, proph's identity this game is calm information seeker.
heres some quotes from Day 1 of the invitational:
Quote from scum proph »
Can we please start providing reasoning for things?
Most of my questions have been trying to get more information into the game, simply because it's easier to analyse when you have full information vs partial.
This is simply false - all of my questions have been leading to finding scum.
Like I said, I think it's a trap to assume that the game is mostly PoE'd out since there's usually a scum hiding in my townreads, but I'm at a situation similar to D1 of Iji - I just want some information.
How were my questions without substance? Be more specific - outside of the Seppel stuff coming out of RVS, my questions were aimed at getting more info inside the game.
doesnt it seem like he could have said all these things in this game?
i just read the early part of proph's iso in final fantasy and full deck, which i believe are his two most recently completed town games. you know what i didnt see? any quotes like that.
so yeah. small sample size or whatever, but this is a night and day difference between townproph and scumproph for the last year's worth of playing mafia. as town hes still looking for information, but he doesnt feel the need to make sure we know it.
The warning in this post feels off. And also the "you guys" feels like he distances himself from town.
The warning was 100% serious. Last time I played with tom, I read him completely wrong makes me hesitant to form an early read on him now. However with tom's posting frequency I think there's a good chance that scum!tom would end up slipping up when interacting with someone somewhere, which is why I sternly but gently nudged him away from the safe topic of no lynching and into more readable territory.
How is “BE WARNED” in caps gentle nudging? And why do you think it’s necessary to get someone with tom’s posting frequency into more readable territory? Do you think he can go on endlessly about no lynching?
I'm liking Rhand / JD for scum rn. Rhand demonstrates suspicion for his buddy to pick up dat town cred, then immediately directs attention away to 2 others.
@Proph: do you still have that post from me on toxic links? I know it’s in a mafia game somewhere but can’t remember where.
Anyways, this is the kind of linking of players that I think most often comes from scum. Atog wants to read me as scum based only on the unproven alignment of someone else, and then later on tries to convince others that they should distrust me.
I would not, but if it helps with the information you want, you can consider my vote on him for all purposes but a willingness to immediately lynch him. While I don't trust him as town, I don't want him lynched until we've had more discussion.
Someone should do research on how often scum use “while” vs town.
@Atog (I'll call you Atog to make you scumread me :P): I agree with your read on tom (in that his play in Stargate made me scared of his scum game), but I feel like it's a bit too early to call associative reads with Rhand. I don't agree with your point on Rhand yet.
]
It's not that I didn't believe you about unvoting him-it's that just as a rule of thumb I'd rather not commit my vote to paper over somebody else doing so. The fact of the matter is I know that I'm town, I don't know that you are.
@jd: Your first two posts were exclusively about the idea of NLing. All because you weren't the first to mention it doesn't mean you didn't bring it up, and I think to argue otherwise is to argue semantics, not substance. No sensible reading of my statement would imply that both of you were the first to mention it considering this is all in one thread.
@Everyone: Is it just accepted that Tordeck will come in here, vote without saying anything, and be able to go off on his way? I don't know much about the way he plays-the two games I've been in with him were extremely short-but the fact I'm the only one to have brought it up seems weird to me.
Are you native English shinen?
It looks like shinen knows Proph’s alignment: “The fact of the matter is I know that I'm town, I don't know that you are.” Should be “…. I don’t know if you are", no?
If shinen flips scum, then this post looks bad for Tordeck: he seems jealous that Tordeck hardly posts and doesn’t get pressure for that while he’s really trying and under fire.
I believe his claim because it's going to be obvious eventually if he has a vote or not.
I think he's town because a scum member having no vote is basically making them start with one man down.
I am going to say I find the claim odd. If you don't have a vote then vote anyone why yourself to "prove your claim" when you could vote 11 other players to do the same thing.
This is something I considered, I thought I would offer the wagon to see who would jump on instead of just having me vote.
That said I'm not sure if I show up in vote counts or not so we may have to run me up to L-1 anyway for me to prove it.
Why would we need a full claim this early in the game, especially from someone who is likely to be town? :/
hold this thought
@JD
tell us your theory as to why its 7 to lynch
i want to townread you because that explanation of why huntz is scum seems genuine to me. but theres something missing here.
Because GJ writes “with 12 alive”, not “with 12 votes in play”. His body counts for the lynch threshold even when he has no vote.
Can we move on from this pls? Don’t push him into full claiming.
@Hunt Though I think it could be either a town or scum role, a role that switched between no votes and double voting by some sort of mechanic seems plausible to me for this setup.
Aaaand there we have it. Sigh. I really hope you’re scum shinen, but if you aren’t: never guess someone’s role in thread plxthx.
Why are you only reacting to the mechanical part of Hunt’s post?
@Rhand: I was worried at first after seeing your vote on me that you weren't actually offering up anything of substance for me to talk about, but I'm glad that wasn't the case. Though honestly I'd almost be inclined to ask if *you* natively spoke English after wondering if my sentence should include an if-there's no need to put on there. Saying I don't know somebody is town is 100% accurate in the case of every player but myself; it comes off as stronger language than including the if to emphasize the fact that I can't necessarily trust anybody else.
You also didn't answer my question of *how* I was overexplaining, simply reiterated that you believed I was (and, granted, did add some substance to that in the idea that talking about NL is a safe topic for scum, which I'll grant-but that only points to Tom and JD as much as it does to me, correct? All three of us have more or less dropped the subject in its entirety since, besides in discussions of the train on JD.)
I've never heard of guessing at somebody's role being either a social faux pas or a town misplay (or a scum tell, but I doubt that's what you're getting at there) but I'll keep it in mind going forward. And as for not reacting to the rest of his post, it's because there's not much to react to-he's correct that being overly defensive is a minor scum tell, but it's also a human reaction to have. Furthermore, directly reacting to it would have only led those who were already, in my opinion without much reasoning (that is to say Proph previously, not the stuff you have up there, as you clearly have reasoning in your post) to use it as evidence of me being more overly defensive should they have attempted to run me up.
As for the rest of your post, I think you're drastically mislabeling a willingness to cast the damning vote on oneself when one is confident it won't result in one's death as town mentality. Scum can say a lot of different things to make them seem town, the least of which is saying they're willing to perform an action with literally zero consequences.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
EDH: UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern WWWHatebearsWWW
work>prerelease>crappysleep>work>goodsleep>work - thats my wknd in a nut shell. I have catching up to, which i will do on tuesday which is my next day off.
i seem to remember you being more about townreads early on, but all my research this game has been reading proph games.
i might do that research later, depending on what i think of you...
Are you native English shinen?
It looks like shinen knows Proph’s alignment: “The fact of the matter is I know that I'm town, I don't know that you are.” Should be “…. I don’t know if you are", no?
You also didn't answer my question of *how* I was overexplaining, simply reiterated that you believed I was (and, granted, did add some substance to that in the idea that talking about NL is a safe topic for scum, which I'll grant-but that only points to Tom and JD as much as it does to me, correct?
yeah, thats part of why johnny and now me does that (though it has its merits as a strategy). see how good those interactions were?
Sorry busy at work we quit our franchise and now I need to change all online media related to the old franchise.
Will read through when I get some time.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Smile your day could be worse, so I did smile and it was worse.
I like jd's reasoning on Huntzilla, though I will hold off until Huntzilla posts more. If he's scum, then it'll be readily apparent.
Quote from tom »
@proph does it still make him town?
I believe his role, coupled with his behavior, makes him town.
Quote from Huntzilla »
Hm...
Ok fair enough.
Unvote
Willing to let it play out and see what happens as we move forward.
Why did you unvote jd here? What did you see in jd's recent posts to make you unvote him?
Quote from tomsloger »
i guess the vote itself makes sense...
i still dont like that sentence though
I agree. That sentence felt unnecessarily defensive and self-aware.
----
Quote from tomsloger »
really? didnt even consider?
again, ive never seen the role before. but my first thought would definitely be trying to draw the nightkill
I had the same thought as well, but I basically never get nightkilled in mafia games, and I thought the damage caused by some stray investigative/protective role would be too great, which is why I claimed.
Quote from tomsloger »
theres some inconsistency here. its ok for tordeck to say nothing, but mindreaver is scummy for actually trying to say something 50 posts earlier?
Mindreaver said something that I consider scummy in RVS. Tordeck just voted. That's a world of difference.
Quote from tomsloger »
wheeling and dealing. not scummy per se, but the "goddamn im so town" explanation doesnt feel organic.
I wanted Shinen to get to five votes on jd, since five votes in a small game (12 man) is the optimal wagon size for vote count analysis later in the game. I don't understand where you're getting the "god darn I'm so town" explanation. Shinen ruined it, though, by not getting jd's wagon up to five votes (and it plays a small part as to why I'm scumreading Shinen).
Quote from tomsloger »
again with the "i just want to figure stuff out"
I want to figure things out. How is that indicative of a scum mindset?
Quote from tomsloger »
and another thing scum (including myself) do to get town read. you just dare people to think youre scum and that makes them not.
This is just something tongue in cheek and an in-joke (After Gatecrash, Togs told me that the only reason he was scumreading Cythare (the D1 lynch) was because Cythare kept calling his "Atog", so I wanted to have a little fun at that).
Quote from tomsloger »
i just read the early part of proph's iso in final fantasy and full deck, which i believe are his two most recently completed town games. you know what i didnt see? any quotes like that.
so yeah. small sample size or whatever, but this is a night and day difference between townproph and scumproph for the last year's worth of playing mafia. as town hes still looking for information, but he doesnt feel the need to make sure we know it.
You didn't see any quotes like that because those were games that I replaced into.
I really don't understand where you're coming from with this. In the Invitational, that post was a bit of IIoA from myself, and Azrael nailed me in that game for asking non-alignment relevant questions in RVS. All of the quotes you pulled from this game are based on a conceived identity you've built for me after reading the Invitational game, and you're trying to make my posts this game fit it.
My question is: How do any of the things you've pointed out indicate a scum mindset? You're pointing out questionable things, yes, but none of the things you've quoted make me scum.
---
Quote from Rhand »
[@Proph: do you still have that post from me on toxic links? I know it’s in a mafia game somewhere but can’t remember where.
Let me check. Yep, have it:
Quote from Rhand »
It's not as clear cut as that; you have to look for how they are tying people together.
Scarlet in Hayate did it too, and that was not scum motivated.
What I look for are premature conclusions based on a flip that hasn't happened yet.
Attacking people because they are bussing someone or coaching someone without adding reasoning that they are scum even without the coaching or bussing is pretty damning: why would town ever do that?
Step into your own town!shoes. Would you be willing to call someone scum only because someone else might flip scum?
You shouldn't. Thoughts like that can be outed, but should never ever be formed as an attack, a conclusion or a vote.
If you see one of those, you probably found scum.
Step into your scum!shoes. You want to spread as much distrust among town as you can. Adding suspicion to others because of the actions of one is very tempting. I have often caught myself doing that (luckily most of the time before I press submit).
Examples: A post like 'If Y ever flips scum, X might very well be coaching him here' is fine: not an attack, not a conclusion, not a vote. Just something to remember for the future.
'Look at this, X is clearly coaching Y here' comes from scum: without Y's flip this is a baseless conclusion.
'Wow X, are you bussing Y now?' will often come from scum, but I've seen overzealous town write that too. Look for more posts of the same kind in that case: a single post like this isn't telling, but a streak of similar posts very much is.
'I think X, Y and Z are scum together because of blabla' can come from both. Analyse the blabla in that case.
In all cases, it is important to analyse if the player who makes the accusation / conclusion really believes player Y to be scum. If he is convinced of that, a town!player might be making those conclusions prematurely without meaning harm or wanting to spread distrust. If he doesn't (which is especially the case when scum use the same sort of attacks on multiple players), lynch him.
Am I making sense?
After rereading this, I'm a bit unsure if it fits since Togs clearly believes that jd is scum, though you are the best judge of that.
Quote from Rhand »
What is that “yet” doing there Proph?
You're a difficult player to read, so if I ever do come around on scumreading you then I may agree with Togs.
@Shinen: Who do you think is scum and why? I find it concerning that your last three posts on this page have been only mechanics discussion and a defense.
It was more based on "I didn't even consider not claiming the N1 portion of the ability".
really? didnt even consider?
again, ive never seen the role before. but my first thought would definitely be trying to draw the nightkill
I had the same thought as well, but I basically never get nightkilled in mafia games, and I thought the damage caused by some stray investigative/protective role would be too great, which is why I claimed.
so you had the same thought, but didnt even consider not claiming? which is it?
I want to figure things out. How is that indicative of a scum mindset?
like i said, you want to figure things out as town too. thats obvious.
the problem is when you feel the need to tell us that. this is the thing im seeing in your scum games but not your town games. As town, you just put out your analysis. No need to tell everyone thats what youre doing.
I really don't understand where you're coming from with this. In the Invitational, that post was a bit of IIoA from myself, and Azrael nailed me in that game for asking non-alignment relevant questions in RVS. All of the quotes you pulled from this game are based on a conceived identity you've built for me after reading the Invitational game, and you're trying to make my posts this game fit it.
My question is: How do any of the things you've pointed out indicate a scum mindset? You're pointing out questionable things, yes, but none of the things you've quoted make me scum.
This is a thing I was specifically looking for. I did some of this prep in advance of mindscrew, where it ended up being useless. We basically haven't played together yet, so I didn't want to come in blind.
These were my findings, and you made 3 separate statements that triggered it.
@all
Heres a little list I came up with from proph's last 2 scum games and this one. I challenge you to find examples of proph making these sorts of statements as town.
Can we please start providing reasoning for things?
God, I'm reading (and rereading) the last couple of pages
I'm generally a Day 1 bulldog - I find something I don't like, I clamp down, and shake it around until it's dead.
I want to immediately begin the task of PoEing the gamestate down
I want to take a bit more time interacting with killjoy and AI - I've misread both in the past, and I don't want to make the same mistake again.
I'm just showing my work and listing out what I think about certain players. I'm kind of over naked voting people for reactions, at this stage of my mafia career.
Hence why I said I needed to read the game - to solidify my opinions on those players.
Please read my follow up posts - I expounded upon the reasoning for both.
Like I said, I think it's a trap to assume that the game is mostly PoE'd out since there's usually a scum hiding in my townreads, but I'm at a situation similar to D1 of Iji - I just want some information.
I don't want to pass up relevant wagon information this early in the game.
Most of my questions have been trying to get more information into the game, simply because it's easier to analyse when you have full information vs partial.
This is simply false - all of my questions have been leading to finding scum.
How were my questions without substance? Be more specific - outside of the Seppel stuff coming out of RVS, my questions were aimed at getting more info inside the game.
Welp, we have four votes on a townie wagon, which isn't quite good enough for wagon analysis. I'm disappointed.
so you had the same thought, but didnt even consider not claiming? which is it?
I'm a bit confused as to what you mean here. Do you mean "not claim the N1 part of my ability" or "not claim the PGO ability"?
Quote from tomsloger »
the problem is when you feel the need to tell us that. this is the thing im seeing in your scum games but not your town games. As town, you just put out your analysis. No need to tell everyone thats what youre doing.
I'm not really sure how this is a point, but okay. Your meta-attack is bizarre, but upon reflection is a thought process I can genuinely see coming from town.
I'm a little suspicious now that we have one confirmed vote-metalmind. In the books, there was always a pair (push and pull, seek and hide, etc). It's possible to have a second, opposite, power (one is a double voter and one nullifies a vote against them or something like that).
We don't see Killjoy and Hunger voting yet either. But you're the only one playing games (I would vote but I'm not going to on principle). In light of JDs claim, and confirmation, I'd like to see if you vote is counted.
I dislike this role speculation about shinen, searching for PR isn't a town thing to do. FOS Mindreaver
I forgot Killjoy was in this game, is it time he was prodded yet?
Jd's claim is interesting, but ultimately null. At first I thought the not voting thing was permanent, but it looks like it's meant to be a drawback for charging which I could imagine seeing on town, scum, or even neutral !
Behavior-wise I don't see jd doing anything that jumps out as scummy in his recent posts. I'm willing to believe that the no-lynch stuff in RVS was a townie getting fixated on mechanics for now.
I do remain a little suspicious due to his association with Rhand. It's not so much the fact that Rhand defended him, but that he tried to do it while seeming like he wasn't trying to do it.
Jd, I think you should still use your vote or FoS's instead of just being a treestump toDay. After all, refusing to accept limitations and fighting the power is simply the mafia way.
Quote from proph »
@Atog (I'll call you Atog to make you scumread me :P): I agree with your read on tom (in that his play in Stargate made me scared of his scum game), but I feel like it's a bit too early to call associative reads with Rhand. I don't agree with your point on Rhand yet.
Calling me Atog and disagreeing with me in one post, can you even BE any more scummy : p I'll concede that this pair isn't as likely as when I brought it up earlier, but I'll be keeping an eye out.
Next up to bat is Shinen. I'll examine his posts when I get back from doing various Things.
Regarding the toxic links: Proph said in his latest post that Atogatog believes I'm scum so the link isn't one of the toxic links that Rhand referred to, but in the quoted post above his reason for believing I'm scum is that link. It's kind of like a Tautology.
I wish D_V hadn't pointed out that I just needed to vote so quickly, Tom was the only one who voted me in that interval but he is one of my town reads. D_V pointing it out means he was thinking logically about my claim. Town points for him.
Tom's case on Proph puts him lower on the list, the "look I'm helping" mentality is worrying.
I think him claiming was the play I would make, as he kills for any targeting of him. If he tried to draw the night kill he could have drawn the target of a doctor or town PR's which would suck to lose.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Smile your day could be worse, so I did smile and it was worse.
@Proph: You might be right on Atog re: the toxic links. I was townreading JD bigtime at that point, so that probably colored my view on the situation. But I still feel weird about the link he made and then trying to convince you of my scuminess.
@shinen: do you have a finished towngane that I can look at? I'm starting to think that using many words to explain something is your normal meta, no matter which alignment.
And no, I'm not native English. I stand corrected.
@tom: I think you have the wrong impression of me. I focus on finding town and scum alike. I think a bit more on scum than on town, but that probably differs from game to game.
What I wanted to say about Proph is that he's in his normal meta. Proph always is a bit lost Day 1 because he has nothing to analyse.
@tom: I think you have the wrong impression of me. I focus on finding town and scum alike. I think a bit more on scum than on town, but that probably differs from game to game.
What I wanted to say about Proph is that he's in his normal meta. Proph always is a bit lost Day 1 because he has nothing to analyse.
both fair points. i may need additional research into both of you.
if y'all couldnt tell, im focusing on meta this game.
I dislike this role speculation about shinen, searching for PR isn't a town thing to do.
Yeah I was just reading more things on mafia wiki last night (after reading proph's "wagon analysis" comment and wondering how you could do anything with that data), and then I saw the section on "scum search for PRs". So I goofed a bit there, and I can understand the FoS. I got too excited that I might have found a scum in sheinin, but I guess the way to go about it was to just add to the votes against him and prod him for action.
And while I'm at it, unvote. While I'm not convinced yet, you're less scummy than others.
Yeah, being overly defensive is a minor tell. I see what you mean there.
I will barn you for now until your theory plays out.
Unvote
Vote Proph
Do you know what tom’s theory is, or are you just trying to seem helpful here?
Not going to react on tom’s Proph post before Proph can, but I have some stuff to say about that.
Not trying to be "helpful," I needed a place to put my vote for now until something else caught my fancy. Barning Mr. Sloger was good enough as anything else.
Are you vaguely trying to discredit me or just reaching for interactions with me?
I like jd's reasoning on Huntzilla, though I will hold off until Huntzilla posts more. If he's scum, then it'll be readily apparent.
Quote from tom »
@proph does it still make him town?
I believe his role, coupled with his behavior, makes him town.
Quote from Huntzilla »
Hm...
Ok fair enough.
Unvote
Willing to let it play out and see what happens as we move forward.
Why did you unvote jd here? What did you see in jd's recent posts to make you unvote him?
His reasoning felt genuine towards me after he explained a little, not that it totally cleared him in my mind. The voting items were the main factor. I will gladly see if his vote comes back to him before I push it any further.
Yeah, being overly defensive is a minor tell. I see what you mean there.
I will barn you for now until your theory plays out.
Unvote
Vote Proph
Do you know what tom’s theory is, or are you just trying to seem helpful here?
Not going to react on tom’s Proph post before Proph can, but I have some stuff to say about that.
Not trying to be "helpful," I needed a place to put my vote for now until something else caught my fancy. Barning Mr. Sloger was good enough as anything else.
Are you vaguely trying to discredit me or just reaching for interactions with me?
Wut? I call you out on a bad barn and you call it discrediting?
tom hadn't even explained why he voted Proph and you just mindlessly jumped on that wagon.
@Proph: You might be right on Atog re: the toxic links. I was townreading JD bigtime at that point, so that probably colored my view on the situation. But I still feel weird about the link he made and then trying to convince you of my scuminess.
I think it's a bit of a natural thought process ("I think jd is scum, and Rhand voted me and defended jd? Buddies!") I have a feeling the linking is more about newbiness (sorry Togs :P) rather than something malicious.
Quote from Mindreaver »
Yeah I was just reading more things on mafia wiki last night (after reading proph's "wagon analysis" comment and wondering how you could do anything with that data), and then I saw the section on "scum search for PRs". So I goofed a bit there, and I can understand the FoS. I got too excited that I might have found a scum in sheinin, but I guess the way to go about it was to just add to the votes against him and prod him for action.
By the way, the "wagon analysis" I keep talking about stems from the hypothesis that almost all of the time, on a five man wagon on town, there is a scum vote on there - because why wouldn't scum want to help run town up?
So yeah, that was why I wanted to get a five man wagon on jd so early in the game, because we could look at that vote count later in the game and try to discern the scum vote on it. With four votes, its harder to do that.
Quote from Huntzilla »
His reasoning felt genuine towards me after he explained a little, not that it totally cleared him in my mind. The voting items were the main factor. I will gladly see if his vote comes back to him before I push it any further.
Okay.
What is your read on me? It feels odd that you barned tom's "theory" before he had anything, and have not read/made a statement on me this game.
Then why aren't you voting/pushing one of those "others"?
Site just ate my post
Anyway, I was waiting for hunt to post. My problem with his barn of Tom, is that until that point, they had zero interaction. None at all. That seemed suspect, and possibly overly friendly. I also didn't like the fact that Tom wrote "I have a theory" which I took as "And I'm Tom, so I'll be expanding on that, stand by". But Hunt was right there to barn right away. "No explanation needed Tom, I trust you, even though I have no reason to".
I am also interested in the Tom/Proph dynamic right now. A lot of the proph suspicion is resting on KJs "believability" catch. Tom echoed it immediately afterward, and it's pretty troubling. The implication is, proph could have claimed something else, but didn't. If it was just "it would have been overpowered to be every day", there are better ways of saying that, that don't bring believability into it.
So yeah, I'm leaning toward hunt and proph at the moment. I could probably go either way.
By the way, the "wagon analysis" I keep talking about stems from the hypothesis that almost all of the time, on a five man wagon on town, there is a scum vote on there - because why wouldn't scum want to help run town up?
Oh, there is a crazy amount of information out there about wagons lol. There are a few models that weight WHEN people join a wagon. So the first and second person don't tell you much, the 3rd person is 15% more likely to be scum, the 4th is 10% more likely to be scum, etc. Its a fascinating thing.
Oh, there is a crazy amount of information out there about wagons lol. There are a few models that weight WHEN people join a wagon. So the first and second person don't tell you much, the 3rd person is 15% more likely to be scum, the 4th is 10% more likely to be scum, etc. Its a fascinating thing.
I don't put much stock on those models, but you can reasonably ascertain stuff like:
- out of a five man wagon on town, there will be at least one scum
- on a scum wagon, if the scum are bussing, there will be at least one scum vote near the back of the wagon
- scum don't usually vote one after the other (this can be manipulated easily, though)
Sheesh, I might have to stick to micros for a while or something now that I'm back on forum mafia-I'd forgotten the sheer number of posts you get to in larger games. It's a lot more information than I'm used to taking in at once for a mafia game, especially as I've taught myself to rely on my gut a bit more often than a player really should when this amount of info is so readily available. Stuff like that level of wagon analysis kind of blows my mind.
That all being said, I do have a couple of things to address, and some of my own thoughts to add (though obviously those are going somewhat hand in hand with Proph asking me who I thought was scum.)
@Rhand: I don't know how much use it will be as it's a five player game in which we chose to not lynch on the only meaningful day, but it's also my only town game on forum mafia. Here you go.
@Proph: My first thought (and the one that's the biggest cop out, but don't worry, there's more) is that considering the sheer number of low-activity players we currently have, at least one of them is scum. I don't think any of them (with the possible exception of Killjoy) are actively lurking, but statistically, one of Killjoy/D_V/Tordeck/Hunger is scum. The only one that feels at all notable out of the four is Tordeck, for his 'not random vote' that had no immediate reasoning-but I don't think that vote alone is an indicator of town or scum behavior, and might have even just been an attempt to stir up interaction/conversation when he knew he was going to have a busy weekend.
As for the rest? I'm still a bit fixated on JD. Interestingly enough, upon reread of his page 1 play, it didn't feel nearly as scummy as I had first thought-but the glaring issue to me is, despite having plenty of page 2 posts including a wagon analysis that doubtlessly required a somewhat thorough reread, he avoided answering Hunger's question that might have provided us some insight as to how we might expect him to play.
Atog's signal to noise ratio seems particularly low to me, which makes me somewhat suspicious of him as well, but I expect that if he does come back with an analysis of mine we will hopefully see more content. There's not much to be added that Rhand hasn't already said besides reiterating the idea (since nobody seemed to respond to it last time I brought it up) that it's possible he was distancing himself from Tom with the page 1 spat.
Lastly-though I feel less strongly about it than the other two-is Tom. His interaction with me on page 2 straddles the line between where posts should start to be all content, and if it *is* content it's buddying up to me, something I don't think a town player would do. Also, I don't like his analysis of Proph, considering the games he grabbed to contrast with were town games in which Proph replaced in. Analyzing an incomplete meta and then trying to use that as evidence of somebody being scummy seems like either a scum play or a bad town play to me.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
EDH: UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern WWWHatebearsWWW
Yeah I was just reading more things on mafia wiki last night (after reading proph's "wagon analysis" comment and wondering how you could do anything with that data), and then I saw the section on "scum search for PRs". So I goofed a bit there, and I can understand the FoS. I got too excited that I might have found a scum in sheinin, but I guess the way to go about it was to just add to the votes against him and prod him for action.
And while I'm at it, unvote. While I'm not convinced yet, you're less scummy than others.
His reasoning felt genuine towards me after he explained a little, not that it totally cleared him in my mind. The voting items were the main factor. I will gladly see if his vote comes back to him before I push it any further.
Sheesh, I might have to stick to micros for a while or something now that I'm back on forum mafia-I'd forgotten the sheer number of posts you get to in larger games. It's a lot more information than I'm used to taking in at once for a mafia game, especially as I've taught myself to rely on my gut a bit more often than a player really should when this amount of info is so readily available. Stuff like that level of wagon analysis kind of blows my mind.
That all being said, I do have a couple of things to address, and some of my own thoughts to add (though obviously those are going somewhat hand in hand with Proph asking me who I thought was scum.)
@Proph: My first thought (and the one that's the biggest cop out, but don't worry, there's more) is that considering the sheer number of low-activity players we currently have, at least one of them is scum. I don't think any of them (with the possible exception of Killjoy) are actively lurking, but statistically, one of Killjoy/D_V/Tordeck/Hunger is scum. The only one that feels at all notable out of the four is Tordeck, for his 'not random vote' that had no immediate reasoning-but I don't think that vote alone is an indicator of town or scum behavior, and might have even just been an attempt to stir up interaction/conversation when he knew he was going to have a busy weekend.
As for the rest? I'm still a bit fixated on JD. Interestingly enough, upon reread of his page 1 play, it didn't feel nearly as scummy as I had first thought-but the glaring issue to me is, despite having plenty of page 2 posts including a wagon analysis that doubtlessly required a somewhat thorough reread, he avoided answering Hunger's question that might have provided us some insight as to how we might expect him to play.
Atog's signal to noise ratio seems particularly low to me, which makes me somewhat suspicious of him as well, but I expect that if he does come back with an analysis of mine we will hopefully see more content. There's not much to be added that Rhand hasn't already said besides reiterating the idea (since nobody seemed to respond to it last time I brought it up) that it's possible he was distancing himself from Tom with the page 1 spat.
Lastly-though I feel less strongly about it than the other two-is Tom. His interaction with me on page 2 straddles the line between where posts should start to be all content, and if it *is* content it's buddying up to me, something I don't think a town player would do. Also, I don't like his analysis of Proph, considering the games he grabbed to contrast with were town games in which Proph replaced in. Analyzing an incomplete meta and then trying to use that as evidence of somebody being scummy seems like either a scum play or a bad town play to me.
shinen still town.
...buuuuddddddy
and i literally just looked at proph's 4 most recently completed games. if both town games were replacements and neither scum game was, it definitely COULD **** up my analysis. it didnt occur to me.
I dislike this role speculation about shinen, searching for PR isn't a town thing to do.
Yeah I was just reading more things on mafia wiki last night (after reading proph's "wagon analysis" comment and wondering how you could do anything with that data), and then I saw the section on "scum search for PRs". So I goofed a bit there, and I can understand the FoS. I got too excited that I might have found a scum in sheinin, but I guess the way to go about it was to just add to the votes against him and prod him for action.
And while I'm at it, unvote. While I'm not convinced yet, you're less scummy than others.
You were specualating about Shinen being a possible double voter not scum in that post. This response doesn't feel right.
Sheesh, I might have to stick to micros for a while or something now that I'm back on forum mafia-I'd forgotten the sheer number of posts you get to in larger games. It's a lot more information than I'm used to taking in at once for a mafia game, especially as I've taught myself to rely on my gut a bit more often than a player really should when this amount of info is so readily available. Stuff like that level of wagon analysis kind of blows my mind.
That all being said, I do have a couple of things to address, and some of my own thoughts to add (though obviously those are going somewhat hand in hand with Proph asking me who I thought was scum.)
@Rhand: I don't know how much use it will be as it's a five player game in which we chose to not lynch on the only meaningful day, but it's also my only town game on forum mafia. Here you go.
@Proph: My first thought (and the one that's the biggest cop out, but don't worry, there's more) is that considering the sheer number of low-activity players we currently have, at least one of them is scum. I don't think any of them (with the possible exception of Killjoy) are actively lurking, but statistically, one of Killjoy/D_V/Tordeck/Hunger is scum. The only one that feels at all notable out of the four is Tordeck, for his 'not random vote' that had no immediate reasoning-but I don't think that vote alone is an indicator of town or scum behavior, and might have even just been an attempt to stir up interaction/conversation when he knew he was going to have a busy weekend.
As for the rest? I'm still a bit fixated on JD. Interestingly enough, upon reread of his page 1 play, it didn't feel nearly as scummy as I had first thought-but the glaring issue to me is, despite having plenty of page 2 posts including a wagon analysis that doubtlessly required a somewhat thorough reread, he avoided answering Hunger's question that might have provided us some insight as to how we might expect him to play.
Atog's signal to noise ratio seems particularly low to me, which makes me somewhat suspicious of him as well, but I expect that if he does come back with an analysis of mine we will hopefully see more content. There's not much to be added that Rhand hasn't already said besides reiterating the idea (since nobody seemed to respond to it last time I brought it up) that it's possible he was distancing himself from Tom with the page 1 spat.
Lastly-though I feel less strongly about it than the other two-is Tom. His interaction with me on page 2 straddles the line between where posts should start to be all content, and if it *is* content it's buddying up to me, something I don't think a town player would do. Also, I don't like his analysis of Proph, considering the games he grabbed to contrast with were town games in which Proph replaced in. Analyzing an incomplete meta and then trying to use that as evidence of somebody being scummy seems like either a scum play or a bad town play to me.
I saw the question and meant to respond after the wagon analysis but forgot. Here it is again for reference
@Mindreaver - How do you know that the NK doesn't target?
I guess I don't. I probably shouldn't be making assumptions either way. The only thing that made me feel the night kill wouldn't kill proph was that who would it kill? The whole scum team?
I think I can explain why JD jumped on me... it's simple if you think about it.
JD saw that Tom posted the comment about my lurking nature, and JD thought it would be easy to mislynch the lurky guy. This could be attributed to coming back from hiatus and throwing suspicion off of himself as quickly as possible, or it could be because he's scum looking for traction.
I'm guessing scum right now if you look at the other posts he made. I believe Proph mentioned IIoA, but I feel it's a bit early to be worried about lack of analysis.
Also, Tom planting the lurker idea in JD's head could be coaching, except we're talking about Tom here, and I have no faith in his foresight to be able to pull that move off. So...
Vote JD
Two things I don't like about this post:
1. He doesn't let JD explain his reasoning first. It could be that this was supposed to be a "gotcha" but...
2. His reasoning lacks conviction. If it was a "gotcha" and he felt really strongly about it, phrases like "I'm guessing scum right now" just don't jive for me. It reads fence-sitty which is conflicting with the sort of "gotcha" type post that this seems to be.
Basically it feels sort of forced.
Speaking of forced, I also really didn't like his barning of Tom on Proph with seemingly no preface. No indication he thought Tom was towny enough to follow, and no indication he wanted to push Proph. Just seems like a really bizarre thing to basically say, "I don't have a good spot for my vote, but I want to put it somewhere so I'm doing something so I'll just blindly follow this other guy, but not really for any reason."
I believe his claim because it's going to be obvious eventually if he has a vote or not.
I think he's town because a scum member having no vote is basically making them start with one man down.
I am going to say I find the claim odd. If you don't have a vote then vote anyone why yourself to "prove your claim" when you could vote 11 other players to do the same thing.
I like this thought process - instead of just accepting what JD said at face value it shows he's going a step deeper and thinking about motivation. Looks like a town mindset.
Are you native English shinen?
It looks like shinen knows Proph’s alignment: “The fact of the matter is I know that I'm town, I don't know that you are.” Should be “…. I don’t know if you are", no?
If shinen flips scum, then this post looks bad for Tordeck: he seems jealous that Tordeck hardly posts and doesn’t get pressure for that while he’s really trying and under fire.
I don't think the that in the place of if is a big deal. It flows just fine IMO and in context it seems perfectly clear that the meaning is the same.
On the second point, I think it would be the opposite? If Shinen is scum why would he want to put the spotlight on his successfully lurking buddy? I would think he wouldn't want to draw attention to him and it would be more likely if he flips scum that this points to him feeling like he was CFTWR and jealous of an under the radar town-Tordeck.
Also, I overall like this post from Rhand. The one bit that stood out to me as a bit off was he seemed a little overly defensive around the shinen guessing JD’s role bit. Felt a bit forced.
JD - I don't think his ability really proves much of anything at this point. I feel like this game is likely pretty power heavy and a scum that can forego his vote to gain some other benefit seems entirely feasible. I liked his repose under some pressure and his thought process seems pretty genuine though.
Tom - He very much looks like he is trying to figure things out. While some of his conclusions may be a bit skewed, the effort he put into the Proph read felt really genuine. He also seems to be open to and trying to generate discussion.
Proph - I'm waffling on Proph. The claim up front seemed like a reasonably town move, but some of his posts have left me feeling uneasy. The believability thing doesn't sit well with me and something I thought I saw early in his posts seems to not be a thing. I want to reread him.
@Proph - Why did you claim right away instead of waiting until later in the Day?
Probably Town
Tom
Mindreaver
Leaning Town
JD
D_V
Rhand
Leaning Scum
Hunt
??
Everyone else
I need to read through the whole game in one go again I think. I have been reading bits and pieces here and there and I feel a bit segmented right now.
I dislike this role speculation about shinen, searching for PR isn't a town thing to do.
Yeah I was just reading more things on mafia wiki last night (after reading proph's "wagon analysis" comment and wondering how you could do anything with that data), and then I saw the section on "scum search for PRs". So I goofed a bit there, and I can understand the FoS. I got too excited that I might have found a scum in sheinin, but I guess the way to go about it was to just add to the votes against him and prod him for action.
And while I'm at it, unvote. While I'm not convinced yet, you're less scummy than others.
You were specualating about Shinen being a possible double voter not scum in that post. This response doesn't feel right.
Well, it might be hard to see for you specifically. You see, IF shinen was another vote-storer of some kind, I do not see any way that two could be on the same team (unless people think two double voters on town could work in a mini). So, it would have meant we'd have caught a scum, but not necessarily Shinen
I never seem to have my nook on me as I type these. What a thrill it would be to explain the insight of the everyday life in two different eras of the world. Divinity.
Yeah, being overly defensive is a minor tell. I see what you mean there.
I will barn you for now until your theory plays out.
Unvote
Vote Proph
Do you know what tom’s theory is, or are you just trying to seem helpful here?
Not going to react on tom’s Proph post before Proph can, but I have some stuff to say about that.
Not trying to be "helpful," I needed a place to put my vote for now until something else caught my fancy. Barning Mr. Sloger was good enough as anything else.
Are you vaguely trying to discredit me or just reaching for interactions with me?
Wut? I call you out on a bad barn and you call it discrediting?
tom hadn't even explained why he voted Proph and you just mindlessly jumped on that wagon.
unvote, vote Huntzilla
This is what I am talking about. You are trying to hard to come up with a reason to vote me. Just freaking do it. If you are town than you shouldn't need a well drawn out reason to fall back on when someone calls you out on your vote. This stretching looks awful.
His reasoning felt genuine towards me after he explained a little, not that it totally cleared him in my mind. The voting items were the main factor. I will gladly see if his vote comes back to him before I push it any further.
Okay.
What is your read on me? It feels odd that you barned tom's "theory" before he had anything, and have not read/made a statement on me this game.
Lean Town on you so far. Your claim is believable, and I think you did it in a townie way (coincidentally similar to a way that I did it in an offsite game), so I feel that puts you on the lean town side of null.
What I don't get is why one vote is getting so many people riled up? You were not in any way shape or form close to being lynched, or even in jeopardy, yet for some reason people are very scared for you. It may feel odd to you that I barned his theory, but I wanted to see what would happen if I did. Not really a litmus reaction test of others in the game, but what would Tom do. He has since tried to distance himself from me quite visibly, most likely because I am garnering votes and this scares him. He doesn't want to be tied to me because A) he's scared to die, B) he thinks I am scum. Of the two, I have to go with A in this scenario. He hasn't come out and called me outright scummy, but he still keeps putting in those comments of "I don't like this." I am thinking Tom and Rhand so far for scum. Rhand is trying to vote me for real reasons, forgetting that he really doesn't need them right now. The only reason he would need "real" reasons to vote me would be to justify his vote if it was called into question. The only reason you need to be able to justify your vote is if you are scum and you know your vote is full of *****.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Not 100% on this may regard a mass claim to prove me right. Not in favor of that.
im assuming he gave up his vote for something, so that seems null.
@proph does it still make him town?
come at me bro.
i am firmly against a mass claim, but otherwise lets dance
I'm a little suspicious now that we have one confirmed vote-metalmind. In the books, there was always a pair (push and pull, seek and hide, etc). It's possible to have a second, opposite, power (one is a double voter and one nullifies a vote against them or something like that).
We don't see Killjoy and Hunger voting yet either. But you're the only one playing games (I would vote but I'm not going to on principle). In light of JDs claim, and confirmation, I'd like to see if you vote is counted.
Jd's claim is interesting, but ultimately null. At first I thought the not voting thing was permanent, but it looks like it's meant to be a drawback for charging which I could imagine seeing on town, scum, or even neutral !
Behavior-wise I don't see jd doing anything that jumps out as scummy in his recent posts. I'm willing to believe that the no-lynch stuff in RVS was a townie getting fixated on mechanics for now.
I do remain a little suspicious due to his association with Rhand. It's not so much the fact that Rhand defended him, but that he tried to do it while seeming like he wasn't trying to do it.
Jd, I think you should still use your vote or FoS's instead of just being a treestump toDay. After all, refusing to accept limitations and fighting the power is simply the mafia way.
Calling me Atog and disagreeing with me in one post, can you even BE any more scummy : p I'll concede that this pair isn't as likely as when I brought it up earlier, but I'll be keeping an eye out.
Next up to bat is Shinen. I'll examine his posts when I get back from doing various Things.
I fiiiinally have a day off tomorrow, so I'll catch up.
Seriously, only giving myself 1 day of rest after my cruise and then start fulltime local guiding in 3 different cities is a tad too much. I fall asleep where I stand.
Hm...
Ok fair enough.
Unvote
Willing to let it play out and see what happens as we move forward.
That's a fair request. Not why I'm not wanting to put my vote down, but here you go:
Vote: Huntzilla
Votecount
(Before anybody tries to read anything into the target, I'm just putting it the same place JD tried to, I'll unvote once we have a count.)
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
He's being logical, seeing if it is tied to me in any way. Not scummy...
i still dont like that sentence though
also,
unvote, vote proph
i have a theory.
I will barn you for now until your theory plays out.
Unvote
Vote Proph
"Survive" (will replace later)
Prophylaxis (2) - tomslager, Huntzilla
jdisawesomesauce (1) - Mindreaver,
shinen (1) - Prophylaxis
Killjoy
Tordeck
tomsloger (1) - D_V
Mindreaver (1) - Tordeck
Rhand
Atogholic (1) - Rhand
Hunger
D_V
Huntzilla (1) - Shinen
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Also, GJ, looks like you missed Tom's vote change a couple posts up.
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
@GJ you sure about that one?
I like Shinen for exploring the possibility that Huntz was unvoteable, that feels like a townset poking for holes in that claim.
Being happy for Tom to play his theory out is one thing. Placing your vote there before having a reason why feels wrong.
Would like to see more from tordeck.
again, ive never seen the role before. but my first thought would definitely be trying to draw the nightkill
and another thing scum (including myself) do to get town read. you just dare people to think youre scum and that makes them not. is that the first time you mentioned DV? it is!
has anyone actually talked about DV? this has nothing to do with proph really, but we have new information and this looks a little silly now, regardless of JD's alignment
ok. now we get to the theory.
i asked proph about his best scum game. i had already read the invitational, but the actual important question was which scumgame did proph feel he did best in.
the worst part of that game for him was Day 1, when he got run up pretty close to a lynch. so if hes thinking about that scum game and trying to improve on it, what he has to do is act the same but avoid that initial suspicion.
ok, that claim is a great way to do that. thats a thing. but it doesnt mean anything on its own. is proph acting similarly otherwise?
well, proph's identity this game is calm information seeker.
heres some quotes from Day 1 of the invitational: doesnt it seem like he could have said all these things in this game?
i just read the early part of proph's iso in final fantasy and full deck, which i believe are his two most recently completed town games. you know what i didnt see? any quotes like that.
so yeah. small sample size or whatever, but this is a night and day difference between townproph and scumproph for the last year's worth of playing mafia. as town hes still looking for information, but he doesnt feel the need to make sure we know it.
?
How is “BE WARNED” in caps gentle nudging? And why do you think it’s necessary to get someone with tom’s posting frequency into more readable territory? Do you think he can go on endlessly about no lynching?
@Proph: do you still have that post from me on toxic links? I know it’s in a mafia game somewhere but can’t remember where.
Anyways, this is the kind of linking of players that I think most often comes from scum. Atog wants to read me as scum based only on the unproven alignment of someone else, and then later on tries to convince others that they should distrust me.
It was a real RVS vote after all. I didn’t realize that the quote you added was related to your vote.
Overexplaining things always make me wary. And the topic of no lynching is pretty safe for scum to use a lot of words on.
Someone should do research on how often scum use “while” vs town.
You can scrap yourself from that list.
What is that “yet” doing there Proph?
Are you native English shinen?
It looks like shinen knows Proph’s alignment: “The fact of the matter is I know that I'm town, I don't know that you are.” Should be “…. I don’t know if you are", no?
If shinen flips scum, then this post looks bad for Tordeck: he seems jealous that Tordeck hardly posts and doesn’t get pressure for that while he’s really trying and under fire.
This is pure town mentality.
Because GJ writes “with 12 alive”, not “with 12 votes in play”. His body counts for the lynch threshold even when he has no vote.
Can we move on from this pls? Don’t push him into full claiming.
Aaaand there we have it. Sigh. I really hope you’re scum shinen, but if you aren’t: never guess someone’s role in thread plxthx.
Why are you only reacting to the mechanical part of Hunt’s post?
Tom literally asked for a fullclaim. That’s not really fishing
Do you know what tom’s theory is, or are you just trying to seem helpful here?
Not going to react on tom’s Proph post before Proph can, but I have some stuff to say about that.
unvote, vote shinen
You also didn't answer my question of *how* I was overexplaining, simply reiterated that you believed I was (and, granted, did add some substance to that in the idea that talking about NL is a safe topic for scum, which I'll grant-but that only points to Tom and JD as much as it does to me, correct? All three of us have more or less dropped the subject in its entirety since, besides in discussions of the train on JD.)
I've never heard of guessing at somebody's role being either a social faux pas or a town misplay (or a scum tell, but I doubt that's what you're getting at there) but I'll keep it in mind going forward. And as for not reacting to the rest of his post, it's because there's not much to react to-he's correct that being overly defensive is a minor scum tell, but it's also a human reaction to have. Furthermore, directly reacting to it would have only led those who were already, in my opinion without much reasoning (that is to say Proph previously, not the stuff you have up there, as you clearly have reasoning in your post) to use it as evidence of me being more overly defensive should they have attempted to run me up.
As for the rest of your post, I think you're drastically mislabeling a willingness to cast the damning vote on oneself when one is confident it won't result in one's death as town mentality. Scum can say a lot of different things to make them seem town, the least of which is saying they're willing to perform an action with literally zero consequences.
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
The Family
i might do that research later, depending on what i think of you...
those are both right actually. crikey. im glad someone reacted.
its weird to me that the thread went dark for 16 hours after that post. not sure what it means. yeah, thats part of why johnny and now me does that (though it has its merits as a strategy). see how good those interactions were?
Will read through when I get some time.
I believe his role, coupled with his behavior, makes him town.
Why did you unvote jd here? What did you see in jd's recent posts to make you unvote him?
I agree. That sentence felt unnecessarily defensive and self-aware.
----
I had the same thought as well, but I basically never get nightkilled in mafia games, and I thought the damage caused by some stray investigative/protective role would be too great, which is why I claimed.
Mindreaver said something that I consider scummy in RVS. Tordeck just voted. That's a world of difference.
I wanted Shinen to get to five votes on jd, since five votes in a small game (12 man) is the optimal wagon size for vote count analysis later in the game. I don't understand where you're getting the "god darn I'm so town" explanation. Shinen ruined it, though, by not getting jd's wagon up to five votes (and it plays a small part as to why I'm scumreading Shinen).
I want to figure things out. How is that indicative of a scum mindset?
This is just something tongue in cheek and an in-joke (After Gatecrash, Togs told me that the only reason he was scumreading Cythare (the D1 lynch) was because Cythare kept calling his "Atog", so I wanted to have a little fun at that).
You didn't see any quotes like that because those were games that I replaced into.
I really don't understand where you're coming from with this. In the Invitational, that post was a bit of IIoA from myself, and Azrael nailed me in that game for asking non-alignment relevant questions in RVS. All of the quotes you pulled from this game are based on a conceived identity you've built for me after reading the Invitational game, and you're trying to make my posts this game fit it.
My question is: How do any of the things you've pointed out indicate a scum mindset? You're pointing out questionable things, yes, but none of the things you've quoted make me scum.
---
Let me check. Yep, have it:
You're a difficult player to read, so if I ever do come around on scumreading you then I may agree with Togs.
@Shinen: Who do you think is scum and why? I find it concerning that your last three posts on this page have been only mechanics discussion and a defense.
the problem is when you feel the need to tell us that. this is the thing im seeing in your scum games but not your town games. As town, you just put out your analysis. No need to tell everyone thats what youre doing. this may be the problem with just reading you in iso. I am certainly missing context. but... This is a thing I was specifically looking for. I did some of this prep in advance of mindscrew, where it ended up being useless. We basically haven't played together yet, so I didn't want to come in blind.
These were my findings, and you made 3 separate statements that triggered it.
@all
Heres a little list I came up with from proph's last 2 scum games and this one. I challenge you to find examples of proph making these sorts of statements as town.
God, I'm reading (and rereading) the last couple of pages
I'm generally a Day 1 bulldog - I find something I don't like, I clamp down, and shake it around until it's dead.
I want to immediately begin the task of PoEing the gamestate down
I want to take a bit more time interacting with killjoy and AI - I've misread both in the past, and I don't want to make the same mistake again.
I'm just showing my work and listing out what I think about certain players. I'm kind of over naked voting people for reactions, at this stage of my mafia career.
Hence why I said I needed to read the game - to solidify my opinions on those players.
Please read my follow up posts - I expounded upon the reasoning for both.
Like I said, I think it's a trap to assume that the game is mostly PoE'd out since there's usually a scum hiding in my townreads, but I'm at a situation similar to D1 of Iji - I just want some information.
I don't want to pass up relevant wagon information this early in the game.
Most of my questions have been trying to get more information into the game, simply because it's easier to analyse when you have full information vs partial.
This is simply false - all of my questions have been leading to finding scum.
How were my questions without substance? Be more specific - outside of the Seppel stuff coming out of RVS, my questions were aimed at getting more info inside the game.
Welp, we have four votes on a townie wagon, which isn't quite good enough for wagon analysis. I'm disappointed.
I'm not really sure how this is a point, but okay. Your meta-attack is bizarre, but upon reflection is a thought process I can genuinely see coming from town.
I dislike this role speculation about shinen, searching for PR isn't a town thing to do.
FOS Mindreaver
I forgot Killjoy was in this game, is it time he was prodded yet?
Regarding the toxic links: Proph said in his latest post that Atogatog believes I'm scum so the link isn't one of the toxic links that Rhand referred to, but in the quoted post above his reason for believing I'm scum is that link. It's kind of like a Tautology.
I wish D_V hadn't pointed out that I just needed to vote so quickly, Tom was the only one who voted me in that interval but he is one of my town reads. D_V pointing it out means he was thinking logically about my claim. Town points for him.
Here's my current leanings from town to scum.
Town
Tom
Rhand
D_V
Proph
Killjoy
Tordeck
Hunger
Atogatog
Shinen
Mindreaver
Huntz
Scum
Tom's case on Proph puts him lower on the list, the "look I'm helping" mentality is worrying.
I think him claiming was the play I would make, as he kills for any targeting of him. If he tried to draw the night kill he could have drawn the target of a doctor or town PR's which would suck to lose.
@shinen: do you have a finished towngane that I can look at? I'm starting to think that using many words to explain something is your normal meta, no matter which alignment.
And no, I'm not native English. I stand corrected.
@tom: I think you have the wrong impression of me. I focus on finding town and scum alike. I think a bit more on scum than on town, but that probably differs from game to game.
What I wanted to say about Proph is that he's in his normal meta. Proph always is a bit lost Day 1 because he has nothing to analyse.
if y'all couldnt tell, im focusing on meta this game.
Yeah I was just reading more things on mafia wiki last night (after reading proph's "wagon analysis" comment and wondering how you could do anything with that data), and then I saw the section on "scum search for PRs". So I goofed a bit there, and I can understand the FoS. I got too excited that I might have found a scum in sheinin, but I guess the way to go about it was to just add to the votes against him and prod him for action.
And while I'm at it, unvote. While I'm not convinced yet, you're less scummy than others.
Not trying to be "helpful," I needed a place to put my vote for now until something else caught my fancy. Barning Mr. Sloger was good enough as anything else.
Are you vaguely trying to discredit me or just reaching for interactions with me?
His reasoning felt genuine towards me after he explained a little, not that it totally cleared him in my mind. The voting items were the main factor. I will gladly see if his vote comes back to him before I push it any further.
Wut? I call you out on a bad barn and you call it discrediting?
tom hadn't even explained why he voted Proph and you just mindlessly jumped on that wagon.
unvote, vote Huntzilla
By the way, the "wagon analysis" I keep talking about stems from the hypothesis that almost all of the time, on a five man wagon on town, there is a scum vote on there - because why wouldn't scum want to help run town up?
So yeah, that was why I wanted to get a five man wagon on jd so early in the game, because we could look at that vote count later in the game and try to discern the scum vote on it. With four votes, its harder to do that.
Okay.
What is your read on me? It feels odd that you barned tom's "theory" before he had anything, and have not read/made a statement on me this game.
Site just ate my post
Anyway, I was waiting for hunt to post. My problem with his barn of Tom, is that until that point, they had zero interaction. None at all. That seemed suspect, and possibly overly friendly. I also didn't like the fact that Tom wrote "I have a theory" which I took as "And I'm Tom, so I'll be expanding on that, stand by". But Hunt was right there to barn right away. "No explanation needed Tom, I trust you, even though I have no reason to".
I am also interested in the Tom/Proph dynamic right now. A lot of the proph suspicion is resting on KJs "believability" catch. Tom echoed it immediately afterward, and it's pretty troubling. The implication is, proph could have claimed something else, but didn't. If it was just "it would have been overpowered to be every day", there are better ways of saying that, that don't bring believability into it.
So yeah, I'm leaning toward hunt and proph at the moment. I could probably go either way.
unvote, vote Huntzilla
Oh, there is a crazy amount of information out there about wagons lol. There are a few models that weight WHEN people join a wagon. So the first and second person don't tell you much, the 3rd person is 15% more likely to be scum, the 4th is 10% more likely to be scum, etc. Its a fascinating thing.
- out of a five man wagon on town, there will be at least one scum
- on a scum wagon, if the scum are bussing, there will be at least one scum vote near the back of the wagon
- scum don't usually vote one after the other (this can be manipulated easily, though)
etc.
That all being said, I do have a couple of things to address, and some of my own thoughts to add (though obviously those are going somewhat hand in hand with Proph asking me who I thought was scum.)
@Rhand: I don't know how much use it will be as it's a five player game in which we chose to not lynch on the only meaningful day, but it's also my only town game on forum mafia. Here you go.
@Proph: My first thought (and the one that's the biggest cop out, but don't worry, there's more) is that considering the sheer number of low-activity players we currently have, at least one of them is scum. I don't think any of them (with the possible exception of Killjoy) are actively lurking, but statistically, one of Killjoy/D_V/Tordeck/Hunger is scum. The only one that feels at all notable out of the four is Tordeck, for his 'not random vote' that had no immediate reasoning-but I don't think that vote alone is an indicator of town or scum behavior, and might have even just been an attempt to stir up interaction/conversation when he knew he was going to have a busy weekend.
As for the rest? I'm still a bit fixated on JD. Interestingly enough, upon reread of his page 1 play, it didn't feel nearly as scummy as I had first thought-but the glaring issue to me is, despite having plenty of page 2 posts including a wagon analysis that doubtlessly required a somewhat thorough reread, he avoided answering Hunger's question that might have provided us some insight as to how we might expect him to play.
Atog's signal to noise ratio seems particularly low to me, which makes me somewhat suspicious of him as well, but I expect that if he does come back with an analysis of mine we will hopefully see more content. There's not much to be added that Rhand hasn't already said besides reiterating the idea (since nobody seemed to respond to it last time I brought it up) that it's possible he was distancing himself from Tom with the page 1 spat.
Lastly-though I feel less strongly about it than the other two-is Tom. His interaction with me on page 2 straddles the line between where posts should start to be all content, and if it *is* content it's buddying up to me, something I don't think a town player would do. Also, I don't like his analysis of Proph, considering the games he grabbed to contrast with were town games in which Proph replaced in. Analyzing an incomplete meta and then trying to use that as evidence of somebody being scummy seems like either a scum play or a bad town play to me.
UUUJin-Gitaxias, Core AugurUUU
Modern
WWWHatebearsWWW
...buuuuddddddy
and i literally just looked at proph's 4 most recently completed games. if both town games were replacements and neither scum game was, it definitely COULD **** up my analysis. it didnt occur to me.
It's just the null section.
You were specualating about Shinen being a possible double voter not scum in that post. This response doesn't feel right.
I saw the question and meant to respond after the wagon analysis but forgot. Here it is again for reference
Being caught as scum is worse than being scum read as town. What does this question do except generate WIFOM though?
Unvote
Two things I don't like about this post:
1. He doesn't let JD explain his reasoning first. It could be that this was supposed to be a "gotcha" but...
2. His reasoning lacks conviction. If it was a "gotcha" and he felt really strongly about it, phrases like "I'm guessing scum right now" just don't jive for me. It reads fence-sitty which is conflicting with the sort of "gotcha" type post that this seems to be.
Basically it feels sort of forced.
Speaking of forced, I also really didn't like his barning of Tom on Proph with seemingly no preface. No indication he thought Tom was towny enough to follow, and no indication he wanted to push Proph. Just seems like a really bizarre thing to basically say, "I don't have a good spot for my vote, but I want to put it somewhere so I'm doing something so I'll just blindly follow this other guy, but not really for any reason."
Role-related things. However, I don't think I was seeing what I thought I was seeing at this point.
I like this thought process - instead of just accepting what JD said at face value it shows he's going a step deeper and thinking about motivation. Looks like a town mindset.
I don't think the that in the place of if is a big deal. It flows just fine IMO and in context it seems perfectly clear that the meaning is the same.
On the second point, I think it would be the opposite? If Shinen is scum why would he want to put the spotlight on his successfully lurking buddy? I would think he wouldn't want to draw attention to him and it would be more likely if he flips scum that this points to him feeling like he was CFTWR and jealous of an under the radar town-Tordeck.
Also, I overall like this post from Rhand. The one bit that stood out to me as a bit off was he seemed a little overly defensive around the shinen guessing JD’s role bit. Felt a bit forced.
JD - I don't think his ability really proves much of anything at this point. I feel like this game is likely pretty power heavy and a scum that can forego his vote to gain some other benefit seems entirely feasible. I liked his repose under some pressure and his thought process seems pretty genuine though.
Tom - He very much looks like he is trying to figure things out. While some of his conclusions may be a bit skewed, the effort he put into the Proph read felt really genuine. He also seems to be open to and trying to generate discussion.
Proph - I'm waffling on Proph. The claim up front seemed like a reasonably town move, but some of his posts have left me feeling uneasy. The believability thing doesn't sit well with me and something I thought I saw early in his posts seems to not be a thing. I want to reread him.
@Proph - Why did you claim right away instead of waiting until later in the Day?
Probably Town
Tom
Mindreaver
Leaning Town
JD
D_V
Rhand
Leaning Scum
Hunt
??
Everyone else
I need to read through the whole game in one go again I think. I have been reading bits and pieces here and there and I feel a bit segmented right now.
Well, it might be hard to see for you specifically. You see, IF shinen was another vote-storer of some kind, I do not see any way that two could be on the same team (unless people think two double voters on town could work in a mini). So, it would have meant we'd have caught a scum, but not necessarily Shinen
I never seem to have my nook on me as I type these. What a thrill it would be to explain the insight of the everyday life in two different eras of the world. Divinity.
Prophylaxis (2) - tomslager, Huntzilla
jdisawesomesauce
shinen (1) - Prophylaxis,
Killjoy
Tordeck
tomsloger
Mindreaver (1) - Tordeck
Rhand
Atogholic
Hunger
D_V
Huntzilla (2) - Rhand, Mindreaver
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
This is what I am talking about. You are trying to hard to come up with a reason to vote me. Just freaking do it. If you are town than you shouldn't need a well drawn out reason to fall back on when someone calls you out on your vote. This stretching looks awful.
Lean Town on you so far. Your claim is believable, and I think you did it in a townie way (coincidentally similar to a way that I did it in an offsite game), so I feel that puts you on the lean town side of null.
What I don't get is why one vote is getting so many people riled up? You were not in any way shape or form close to being lynched, or even in jeopardy, yet for some reason people are very scared for you. It may feel odd to you that I barned his theory, but I wanted to see what would happen if I did. Not really a litmus reaction test of others in the game, but what would Tom do. He has since tried to distance himself from me quite visibly, most likely because I am garnering votes and this scares him. He doesn't want to be tied to me because A) he's scared to die, B) he thinks I am scum. Of the two, I have to go with A in this scenario. He hasn't come out and called me outright scummy, but he still keeps putting in those comments of "I don't like this." I am thinking Tom and Rhand so far for scum. Rhand is trying to vote me for real reasons, forgetting that he really doesn't need them right now. The only reason he would need "real" reasons to vote me would be to justify his vote if it was called into question. The only reason you need to be able to justify your vote is if you are scum and you know your vote is full of *****.
Unvote
Vote Tom
could easily be Rhand too.
unvote
vote Tom