This is probably the worst game I could possibly have chosen to start playing again with, but I wanted to help Taredas out. I've seen Robroy's post about votes, is there anything else I need to know right now?
hi eco!
you should also know that nacho has claimed governor that can publicly reveal whoever he pardons. the general consensus is that we should do that tonight.
gj has claimed he is masoned with another player who is not yet playing. he is my choice for reveal.
D_V is not part of the game yet. hans skipped Day 1. i move the votes maybe.
Robroy actually gains a lot of credence to me with these revelations, because of his ample defense of Businessman. If he is mafia 1, then he would defend businessman because in his mind it is a town v. town fight and because of this equates to him gaining townie points with a strong player.
@DV: I went and ISO'd Robroy's posts and saw nothing that looked like "ample defense of IMAB". Wrong person?
And besides, I'm not understanding your point. You say that he's town since he defended IMAB, while as scum he would defend IMAB to gain town points...?
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KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Also.....I GET CONFIRMED VIA OTHER MASON. Why would you waste a day's confirmation on me? Like seriously. There is even a fair chance I get shot in the face tonight anyway.
The problem I have with a one shot innocent child is that in this set up, and with you having to ask for it, it actually defeats the damn point of an innocent child. I still wouldn't necessarily believe it makes you confirmed town. It literally changes nothing. It's just words for the sake of mod-posted words.
Indeed. Assuming Azrael is on board with it, it would need to be an item that reveals your affiliation - not one that makes you look innocent.
1) 7hawk77, Friend Computer, Mafia Dreaming God, was deleted Day 2
...
12) imabusinessman, ???, Mafia ???, was modkilled Day 2
14) leukovirus, ???, Mafia ???, was modkilled Day 2
All members of Mafia 2 are dead.
Wow. Three dead, all scum, and all Mafia 2? Iiiinteresting.
Multiple mafias, unfortunately, really does screw up our reads based on the bodies. There's no way to know whether Hawk, imab, and leuko were all in Mafia 2 before the modkills, or whether they were split between the mafias, and the mod consolidated the remaining scum into Mafia 1 afterwards. This puts us nearly back to square one as far as interaction reads.
Robroy actually gains a lot of credence to me with these revelations, because of his ample defense of Businessman. If he is mafia 1, then he would defend businessman because in his mind it is a town v. town fight and because of this equates to him gaining townie points with a strong player.
If you're trying to attack me, "credence" cannot be the word you want to use. I would also argue the factual nature of "ample". And if your slapfight with imab is what you're trying to refer to with "town v. town", then I'd also argue "strong".
And besides, I'm not understanding your point. You say that he's town since he defended IMAB, while as scum he would defend IMAB to gain town points...?
I think he's trying to say that mafia1!RobRoy, seeing D_V and imab going at each other, would try to be a voice of reason and defend imab, and that's what he thinks I did. The problem is that it's possible to justify pretty much anything as being something that scum might do, since they often just don't want to die. What he needs to do, if he really thinks I'm scum, is show how what I posted is incompatible with town!RobRoy's mindset.
Tom it does seem really really dumb to reveal a claimed mason to me
Well, if he were a full claimed mason, we'd know for sure that there is someone else out there who can vouch for him in the future. The way he's been describing things so far, it sounds like his counterpart may never actually enter the thread.
That said, I think I'd still prefer to leave GJ until tomorrow. Given the claim, I'd like to give at least one night/day cycle for the other player to hopefully enter the game. If she still isn't here tomorrow, I'll be taking a long, hard look at Randy.
As for who I do dislike at this time... Necarg is still up there. Waiting to hear what Huntzilla has to claim, but he's on my radar. And I'd like to reread hansanator at some point, as the only re-awakened lurker with continuity, but won't have time to do that soon.
I have no idea what I was trying to say in that sentence about RobRoy.
That sentence isn't fully complete at all.
Uhhh. Yeah.
Basically my overall thoughts on RobRoy.
Robroy has a lot of credence to being town. While I want to trust him, my overall dislike was his dismissive nature on the bussinessman lying thing.
Robroy is town in my book, but I have this feeling I can't shake in my gut that says otherwise and I can't really place a finger on why. I feel that in many ways he is just hedging bets and bringing up points against other players arguments but hasn't developed a lot of his own feelings.
IDK maybe I am just wrong. Kind of why I want the reveal on him is because of this it would settle things once and for all. I am also on the fence ish about GJ and yeah he claims to be "confirmed", but.... If I was mafia this seems like a decent fake claim and he can just fall back on my mason never came into the game argument, I am starting to want to leave him to a later date though, because regardless of the length of the game this is after all still day one.
I also hate to say this but I have a lot of suspicion right now on our replacements. I was debating, whether or not to talk about this but I feel that it has a lot of merit, I just don't feel that it is entirely in the spirit of playing a game to talk about this. Taredas is salvaging roles, he had many people to choose from to replace in he choose to kill off a mafia group but to keep others alive. The answer to me on this is that these are power roles, or roles in the other mafia group or something that actually mattered to the game like Mao. At first I didn't want to draw attention to this, but I feel that the mafia(If there is another group), will be discussing this as well.
ok, you already know im not a fan of claims just making someone untouchable.
but this is mindscrew. i could see an actual mason being scum. even if HP was here to say you were confirmed town, that doesnt make it 100% in my mind.
revealing you now either catches you or makes you actually untouchable. its win-win (or eventually reveals that nacho is false, i suppose)
at this point, i think my second choice for reveal might be myself. i dont remember who said it (might have been you) but making the scum choose between NKing me or letting me run around confirmed seems awesome.
my role PM has a lot of words that vaguely do stuff, but its certainly not worth a NK.
Huh, I didn't even think of the fact that mafia teams could have been consolidated. That makes a lot of sense actually.
I'm basically going to just keep up with the game from here on, because I'm pretty busy and reading #1200 posts is a massive slog that I just don't have time for
oh yeah, one more thing for the replacements:
necarg has a role that allows him to edit posts.
hes having fun with it, which i appreciate. i suggest bookmarking his current home post so you can check in on him when you feel like.
I'm basically going to just keep up with the game from here on, because I'm pretty busy and reading #1200 posts is a massive slog that I just don't have time for
Just know that I have one home base post. It's this one.
I'm going to assume he has to edit a post as opposed to be able to make new ones, due to how obnoxious that is otherwise
i have no reason to believe that.
and while i think it more fun than obnoxious, its definitely both.
it is, in fact, the basis of my town read on him. its very much a "just for the hell of it" decision, completely unmindful of how we perceive him.
which is not something i would expect from scum necarg
A second scum team makes interactions really interesting, or rather it would if they weren't all dead. It is possible that the teams were consolidated, but that would mean that at some point, they weren't the same team, and as such there is still beneficial interaction analysis that can be done earlier in the day. Will go back and see if I can find anything out there, how likely is it that the teams were consolidated? Is there really a precedent for that from other games?
My hunch with Necarg is that he has a specific amount of posts he can make during the day, this way he edits one for general posts and such, and saves new ones for votes and other things that need to be said at a specific point. Editing one post over and over for the hell of it seems really obnoxious, bookmarking the post helps but still.
@Tom Why is scum!Necarg less likely to do something that generally is obnoxious for the town than town!Necarg? I feel like its more null in your case, if thats how you believe his ability to work.
I have no idea what I was trying to say in that sentence about RobRoy.
That sentence isn't fully complete at all.
Uhhh. Yeah.
Basically my overall thoughts on RobRoy.
Robroy has a lot of credence to being town. While I want to trust him, my overall dislike was his dismissive nature on the bussinessman lying thing.
Robroy is town in my book, but I have this feeling I can't shake in my gut that says otherwise and I can't really place a finger on why. I feel that in many ways he is just hedging bets and bringing up points against other players arguments but hasn't developed a lot of his own feelings.
IDK maybe I am just wrong. Kind of why I want the reveal on him is because of this it would settle things once and for all.
You're not wrong. The only people I've really had strong feelings about this game have been Hawk, Tapping, tomsloger, and Gentleman Johnny, and even about GJ I have a fair bit of ambivalence. It's something that I'm hoping I'll be able to work on going forward - ideally as soon as we have a dead scum that we can actually be sure has living buddies. I still feel like this is an awful reason to end the day with a reveal on someone, though.
I also hate to say this but I have a lot of suspicion right now on our replacements. I was debating, whether or not to talk about this but I feel that it has a lot of merit, I just don't feel that it is entirely in the spirit of playing a game to talk about this. Taredas is salvaging roles, he had many people to choose from to replace in he choose to kill off a mafia group but to keep others alive. The answer to me on this is that these are power roles, or roles in the other mafia group or something that actually mattered to the game like Mao. At first I didn't want to draw attention to this, but I feel that the mafia(If there is another group), will be discussing this as well.
Huh. I don't feel like the mod would have gone out of his way to save a power role - he talked in-thread about the need to re-balance the game, so I feel like he could just have just let strong townie roles die instead of needing to do that. On the other hand, if he needed to replace one member of Mafia 1 and three of Mafia 2, I could definitely see him swapping the replacement into Mafia 1 and letting all of Mafia 2 die. On the gripping hand, the same logic could apply if he needed replacements for a townie and three mafiosos, which pretty much eliminates the usefulness of this line of speculation.
ok, you already know im not a fan of claims just making someone untouchable.
but this is mindscrew. i could see an actual mason being scum. even if HP was here to say you were confirmed town, that doesnt make it 100% in my mind.
revealing you now either catches you or makes you actually untouchable. its win-win (or eventually reveals that nacho is false, i suppose)
My worry here - and to be explicit, I do not want Gentleman Johnny to comment one way or the other on this - is that taking GJ out might prevent the counterpart from entering the game. I'd rather wait at least one day before making a move on him to try to give a window for the new player to enter the game.
at this point, i think my second choice for reveal might be myself. i dont remember who said it (might have been you) but making the scum choose between NKing me or letting me run around confirmed seems awesome.
my role PM has a lot of words that vaguely do stuff, but its certainly not worth a NK.
Also disagree on this. You're my strongest townie read in this thread, and I'd rather use the lynch somewhere that will actually have a chance of catching scum.
Will go back and see if I can find anything out there, how likely is it that the teams were consolidated? Is there really a precedent for that from other games?
I don't recall a game having this level of unbalancing modkills in it before, and multiple-scum-team games are pretty rare. The only other one I recall was Doomsday Mafia from ages ago, and that one gave the two scum teams significantly different win conditions.
My hunch with Necarg is that he has a specific amount of posts he can make during the day, this way he edits one for general posts and such, and saves new ones for votes and other things that need to be said at a specific point. Editing one post over and over for the hell of it seems really obnoxious, bookmarking the post helps but still.
I'd more likely guess that his posts are limited by real-life time, not by game time - no post within 72 hours of a previous one, or whatever.
Also, my issues with him are not so much that he isn't posting as that he isn't providing content. Even when he was editing posts fairly regularly, it was all-too-often song lyrics and such instead of anything substantive. The fact that his edits sometimes wiped out previous content may have contributed to this impression as well, but it doesn't excuse him.
@anak im not saying necarg has been a paragon of towniness. im saying hes been actively making himself suspicious.
lurk has a different connotation in mafia, but hes straight up lurking about the thread. if we want to know what hes said, we have to go find it.
BUT he did recently say you were right about him having a postcount restriction, so he may have been forced into why i was townreading him.
ALRIGHT. I've read the damn thing. I don't quite get how the game has produced a 1,227 post day one two and not managed to get anywhere, but I guess it's mostly due to all the lurking and replacements.
My first observation is that Tapping_Stones was obvious scum from like post #58. He voted hans, despite the fact that hans choosing to skip a cycle for some personal benefit is exactly the kind of weird, unilateral decision hans would make regardless of alignment. TS compounded his scumminess by repeatedly saying he could not see a town motivation for the action, while completely and absolutely failing to provide a scum motivation for it either. His OMGUS attack on Tom was quite simply laughable, and about the time at which I simply stopped reading TS' posts (this turned out to be a good idea). His claim of "pro town" neutral was somehow accepted by everyone with no proof or detail in the claim, and people just backed off. TS should have been lynched like 900 posts ago, and I'm amazed that his claim got him further away from the noose. Regardless, he's dead, and "Outsider Hitman" doesn't sound pro-town to me.
Second, imabusinesman was really scummy. This could be the wonders of hindsight talking, but his desire to point his vote at literally anything didn't exactly speak of someone interested in carefully finding scum. He's dead as well and scum, so that's good.
I think RobRoy, ghosting, Nacho, and Tom are town. RR and nacho are gut, Tom was right about TS and therefore gets bonus points. Ghosting's #512 thing about having some concrete reason Tom is scum indicates someone actively invested in hunting scum, even though it turned out to be wrong (and not something that can be discussed).
I think Proph almost certainly died because of his role, and not because someone else. I am sure we will hear from him again.
I think Nacho should only prevent a lynch if we lynch someone unintended due to this vote shifting thing going on, or if he genuinely thinks it's a terrible lynch (which he would hopefully make clear before it happens).
@D_V: You spent most of the early game trying to explore the setup, and not hunt scum. Then you spent a lot of time arguing with imabusinesman about avatars. These are not the actions of a scumhunting townie. Could you provide me a quick run down of your top town and scum reads? Also, will you be more corporeal tomorrow?
@GJ: Way back at the start of the game, you threatened to end the day by post 1000. Could you elaborate on why you have chosen not to, and also what you hoped to accomplish by making such a statement? Also, why should we trust the claim of a mason who's partner is conveniently not in a place to confirm them? Could you perhaps explain how we can get your partner into the game?
I've got some loose scum reads, but I need to go back and actually chew them over before I feel comfortable posting them. Too many people came up with no read on my first pass, and with my main suspects dead, I need to have a closer look and sort something out.
Finally, Azrael's role is like tailor made for him. He gets to sit outside the game, twirling his moustache and drinking his cognac, with a mod-mandated air of cryptic omniscience. I bet he's loving every second.
@D_V: You spent most of the early game trying to explore the setup, and not hunt scum. Then you spent a lot of time arguing with imabusinesman about avatars. These are not the actions of a scumhunting townie. Could you provide me a quick run down of your top town and scum reads? Also, will you be more corporeal tomorrow?
I spent a majority of the game arguing for Businessman and TS lynches. Businessman lied and dismissed my case and TS kind of did the same thing.
I am starting to become wary of Nachomamma8, Killyjoy and Huntz
My other scum ideas are GJ and RR possibly which is why I want to use our clear on them, but I also feel that they are ok to just let exist to an extent.
Town is Tom and honestly RR, I just I've said this before, but something gut wise is off on RR for me. Necarg is also town to me.
I've got some loose scum reads, but I need to go back and actually chew them over before I feel comfortable posting them. Too many people came up with no read on my first pass, and with my main suspects dead, I need to have a closer look and sort something out.
i think this is where we're all at unfortunately.
you can just post them.
I would say at this stage, clear a lurker. Necarg or Hunt.
I really want to see what happens into day 3 (2???), and if my comrade comes in.
Clear me. I'm fine with that.
Tare hasn't answered whether or not I can share what I want to share. but... I'm almost at the **** it stage and gonna claim anyway. One more real life day and I will spill.
@GJ: Way back at the start of the game, you threatened to end the day by post 1000. Could you elaborate on why you have chosen not to, and also what you hoped to accomplish by making such a statement? Also, why should we trust the claim of a mason who's partner is conveniently not in a place to confirm them? Could you perhaps explain how we can get your partner into the game?
Starcraft ended with a day 1 2000+ post count, and it was miserable with me having no mood to end it. I loathe long days and also think they are an incredible burden to towns (ignore that Starcraft was pretty wrecking for the scum). As far as the mason claim was concerned, because she has a reason to believe she will enter the game eventually (or be pissed at Tare). My ability is also relatively self-resolving, and at the very least shouldn't be dealt with today.
As far as getting her in, our ability(s) has something to do with the shards of the game. Tare wouldn't tell me which shard we were in, but implied our ability(s) might not be the only ones relevant to which shard the gamestate is in. Let's just say I get stronger the more shards pass, and my partner coming in is just the icing on the cake.
If its as self-resolving as GJ says it is, makes sense to at least give him a chance to prove it? Once we arrive at D4 or whatever and it still hasn't resolved to the point of his mason coming in the game, it would be pretty obvious that he is lying about it.
@RR The real-life time restriction would mean that he would likely have posted again in this delay though, no? It feels to me like he is intentionally not posting, as opposed to being prevented, which is why I think he has a hard limit of a certain number. He would be using that "on cooldown" if it was real life.
I just don't see how necarg is scum with that role.
this argument probably has no place in mindscrew.
i actually would agree normally. and would not want to lynch him if thats what we were talking about. but a reveal on necarg seems like a perfectly fine end to a long Day.
ok, you already know im not a fan of claims just making someone untouchable.
but this is mindscrew. i could see an actual mason being scum. even if HP was here to say you were confirmed town, that doesnt make it 100% in my mind.
revealing you now either catches you or makes you actually untouchable. its win-win (or eventually reveals that nacho is false, i suppose)
Okay Tom, you are at the moment one of my favourite players on the site (Hunt, you have competition), so I'm going to be nice and teach you something:
Speculating in games is good, there's nothing wrong with that. However, baseless speculation is not really useful (and could even be harmful) to town.
Ever heard of Occam's razor? It states that among all theories, the one with least assumptions is the one you should choose to believe.
I mean, even I could start convincing you guys that you all are actually Taredas' alt accounts and that I'm the only player in this game... But, is that really likely? No.
tl;dr - I don't think GJ's masonry has a single mafia in it. Either he's lying and there's no one or they are masons just like GJ said. (Or trying the mason gambit.)
@GJ: I have no interest in pursuing Hunt wagon toDay. If he's scum, it'll become obvious as time passes by.
I don't like Eco's #1231. It feels like repeating what's been said and bit silver rage in it ("TS was so obvious scum, why it took you guys so long to get rid of him! IMAB was also obvious scum! You guys suck") and not much analysis from his side.
@Eco: Why are your (living) scum reads? Even lean scums are okay. Why do you think that we shouldn't test Nacho's ability toDay (and get confirmed town/scum) in the process?
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KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
since i have this .txt with everyone's t/s lists, i guess i might as well dump out some info
heres what everyone said about our dead, scummy friends:
hawk earned scum reads from nacho, robroy, and ghosting. as well as a lean scum from hunt.
everyone else (myself included) had him as slightly townie or null
hunt and nacho both had leukovirus leaning scum as well. everyone else had null basically.
interesting that they were both together on both of these.
DV was the only one scumreading imab. though bur and killjoy both had him leaning scum
hunt and nacho were, once again, together: putting him as strong town
tapping is a very interesting one indeed, as i think its quite likely he was unaffiliated with either mafia.
fwiw, DV and ghosting were scumreading tapping along with me. ghosting had him leaning scum.
and nacho and hunt were once again together in thinking him very town.
i am unsure what to divine from this information.
its hard to get anything from people's opinion on tapping. im going to leave it be for now.
hunt shamelessly sheeping nacho probably means they arent knowingly aligned.
thinking leukovirus scum when everyone else barely bothered to mention him stinks a little. could easily point to one of them getting their bus in early.
i find it hard to believe one of imabs buddies would want to tie themselves to him too strongly either way. he was just so caustic. town* points for DV, nacho, and hunt there.
*not actual town points, because two mafia teams. but you know what i mean.
now id like to pay special attention to imab's list:
imab
Killjoy-RobRoy-Tappingstones-Huntzilla
Gentleman Johnny
leukovirus-jobie-tomsloger
Ghosting-Nachomamma8
Anaklusmos-Bur-DotArchon
now theres a few possibilities here for his mindset in making this post.
the first is that imab, leuk, and hawk were mafia 2 from the beginning.
for this to be true, imab had to have made a list and put one of his buddies as null and left the other off completely.
i cant see him not taking the opportunity to bus one of them, especially with both being somewhat scumread at the time. this scenario seems very unlikely to me.
the next is that imab was mafia 2 with hawk and leuk was moved there as part of the rebalancing. (hawk i think was always mafia 2, since that death was role related rather than a modkill.)
just leaving a reasonably suspicious buddy off your list is an odd move. it makes the most sense to me if their other teammate was already bussing. the 4 people scumreading hawk seem most likely to be the third in this grouping.
the other option, i suppose, is that their other buddy didnt make a list or didnt mention hawk in it. i again find it unlikely that with 4 people scumreading hawk that neither of his teammates would at least throw him in the lean scum pile
the most likely scenario in my mind is that imab was mafia 1, and hawk and leuk in mafia 2 with an unknown or two. it just seems so obvious to me that imab would bus one of his teammates. especially with him having the knowledge that he was fairly townread but no one really thought he was right
not a whole lot to get from him having moved, but i would be shocked if one of his mafia 1 buddies couldnt be found among his scumreads (ghosting, nacho, anak, bur, DoTA) if this one is right
here's my way-too-early-to-actually-be-right guess of the two scumteams as originally constituted:
Mafia 1 - imab, DoTA, ?
Mafia 2 - hawk, leuk, nacho
beyond imab in mafia 1, i have very little confidence. dota is just the person among imab's scumreads i have the least townie feelings towards.
the third spot could be gentleman johnny, necarg, either replaced slot, or anak/kj/ghosting if my townreads on them are totally off.
im feeling a little worse about nacho, and would like to see him prove his role more than ever.
im starting to come around to the same way of thinking for GJ. neither can expect to just stay alive without having to prove these things eventually.
im not totally sure where i want my vote to be right now.
id still be down for revealing johnny on principle, as he was the only one against being revealed.
and dota seems more appealing than ever.
citric/eco/necarg all seem like copout wagons at this point, but all offer decent information.
DV isnt in the game. nacho cant pardon himself. robroy is totally town.
revealing hunt or anak technically offers some information, but like whatever.
who am i even missing?
Despite the reduced size of the group, I think I'd still rather lynch someone than reveal, with the standard caveat that Nacho can pardon as long as he takes responsibility for it. Right now I'm leaning towards Necarg, but not enough to vote him. I'm trying to do a PBPA of the dead scum (see below), and hopefully that'll turn up something.
@RR The real-life time restriction would mean that he would likely have posted again in this delay though, no? It feels to me like he is intentionally not posting, as opposed to being prevented, which is why I think he has a hard limit of a certain number. He would be using that "on cooldown" if it was real life.
Hmm. The game did have a built-in deadline for each day, which we are once again counting down towards, so there isn't actually as much difference between the two as I was initially thinking. If you're right, hopefully the mod allowed him a couple extra posts toDay due to the delays.
--
For the record, I'm avoiding looking too closely at tomsloger's latest post as I don't want it to affect my reread too much.
--
I'm doing an analysis of the dead scum's posts. If they were an isolated group from the start, then there won't be anything to be learned from this; if not, hopefully something turns up. Best case, I'm able to find something that is inconsistent with them being scumbuddies, and we can start looking further into who their buddies were; worst case, I waste a little time. Starting with the lowest post-count and working my way up.
7hawk77:
45: Lays a quick attack on hansanator. 55: Backs off hansa, questions tomsloger and Anak. 80: Votes Tom. Explains attack in 151, but lays ground for a flip-flop. 152: States that he will be claiming. Responds to questions on this from leukovirus (known scum) in 176, but not much actual interaction. He actually claims in 221. 225: Responds to me questioning why he didn't wait as Ghosting had asked, dismissively. 235: Starts mild attack on Ghosting. Expresses town read on hansanator. 236: Mild attack on Ghosting and RobRoy. 282: Continues spat with Ghosting. This extends into 291. 300: Responds to RobRoy's attack on him. Speaks positively of hansa, negatively of Ghosting. 303: Continues to respond to RobRoy. Positive on Tom and Tapping. Further defends Tom in 305. 689: Mild positive on Necarg, continues to poke Ghosting.
Overall, little actual interaction. The initial attack and then quick reverse on hansanator feels more like scum trying to attack townie than anything that would be done to a scumbuddy, so I doubt Hawk was co-scum with hansa. The support of Tom and the attack on Ghosting are also things that I doubt Hawk would have done to a buddy, so they get a couple points from me on that. The only person that I think comes out of this seeming a little worse is Necarg, and that only from the offhand comment in 689.
Will try to get leukovirus in today as well, but will probably not get to imab before the weekend.
120: Responds to Huntzilla on some questions. Mildly supportive of Tapping. 123: Comments on D_V, no position. 164: Defends Tapping strongly against Necarg. Attacks Tom. 165: Doesn't see hansanator making it Day 2 as necessarily scummy. Elaborates in 171 that he still finds him suspicious, though. leuko continues to talk about this in his next couple posts. 178: Interacts with Hawk (known scum) over Hawk's claim. Nothing much said. 202: Responds to hansanator saying that leuko made a scum slip. 204: Questions imab (known scum) on the Nacho plan. 234: Questions D_V about which Day it is, states support of Tapping, begins to see tomsloger as townier. 292: Responds to questions from Killjoy on hans, stating a null read of hans. 338: Questions Gentleman Johnny on his counterpart.
Around this time there are some posts about leuko's gender which I do not believe are game relevant. 560: He says he will have something to say about D_V, Azrael, and imab after rereads.
And that's it. Not many strong positions of any kind. He was consistently supportive of Tapping, but we know that is not indicative. Pretty much everyone else that he expresses a town/scum opinion on, he slips in some weasel words to cover a jump in either direction. This is most evident in his position on hansanator, where he expresses suspicion, but comes up with reasons to cover it, and later says that his gut says town, but that he dislikes the mechanics of the role. Not much to be learned here.
Review of imabusinessman. I might be a little more summarizey here than I was on the others, due to imab having triple the post-count.
43: votes Jobie (now Ecophagy) for placing a vote on an NPC.
He interacted several times with Bur over his rationale on the Jobie vote. 109: States that D_V is trolling for reactions, and defends TappingStones. 119: States suspicion of D_V, but no longer of Jobie/Eco. He continues to defend Tapping when Bur questions him on the matter in 136. 207: TappingStones asks imab which votes on him look the worst, giving an opinion of Tom or Necarg. imab is mildly positive on Tom and neutral on Necarg, but says that DoTArchon and Huntzilla look bad. 259: Suspicious of D_V, DoTArchon, Huntzilla, tomsloger, hansanator. Townie on Bur, TappingStones, Proph, Jobie/Eco.
Presses others for opinions on D_V. 321: Nachomamma8 votes imab for a meta read. imab responds with a defence and some OMGUS. 482: Votes Azrael. 495: Comments on D_V changing his avatar. 496: In response to Bur, explains Azrael vote further. 524: In response to RobRoy, states why he is waffling on D_V. Claims (incorrectly) that D_V has changed his avatar multiple times. 532: Defends his attacks on Jobie and Proph from D_V.
This is where imab and D_V really start going at it. I don't feel like linking every single post where one badmouths the other, so to cut to the chase: I can't see any way that imab and D_V would have that fight as co-scum.
537: Mild attack on Bur for the town/scum list he posted. 539: Strengthens the attack on Bur. Also states suspicion of Nachomamma8. The attack continues over the following posts. 601: States that he would like to see Nacho govern any of: Bur, tomsloger, leukovirus (known scum), 7hawk77 (known scum). At this point, I believe RobRoy had expressed suspicion of Hawk, and there was no attempt at all to attack leuko. 623: Mild attack on Ghosting, then continues to attack Bur. 630: States scum reads on Bur, DoTArchon, Anak. Milder scum reads on Nacho, Ghosting, tomsloger. 652: Responds to an attack by Ghosting by refuting points but not counterattacking. This continues over the next several posts. 769: Extensive attack on Bur, pulling in quotes from two previous games to support why Bur's posting this game is different (and therefore scummy). 822: Mild attack on Anaklusmos for "not reading the game". Arguments with Anak continue for several posts. 851: Asks Gentleman Johnny, Nacho and tomsloger to comment on Anak. 926: Mild attack on Nacho for wanting to lynch lurkers. 947: Updated reads. Town on Killjoy, RobRoy, TappingStones, Huntzilla. Lean town on Gentleman Johnny. Lean scum on Ghosting and Nacho. Scum on Anaklusmos, Bur, DoTArchon. Clarifies a post later that tomsloger is neutral. 980: Continues attack on Bur. 1012: Continues attack on Anaklusmos.
For different reasons than with D_V, I cannot see imab and Bur being co-scum. If this was a single-mafia game, then I'd put Bur in the "almost cleared" section; as it is, he just gets some townie points. To a lesser degree, the same goes for Anaklusmos. While imabusinessman didn't put as much effort into attacking him as he did Bur, it still looks like an actual attempt to push a lynch.
On the other side of the coin, this has made me feel worse about Ghosting, and to a lesser degree DoTArchon. imab was attacked several times by Ghosting, but never counterattacked, as he did on Nacho, D_V, Bur, and Anak. If (and this is still unprovable) the mod consolidated the scum groups, that could indicate that Ghosting and imab were co-scum, trying to distance without getting either one of them lynched in the process. Again, if this were a single-mafia game, I'd move Ghosting to "likely scum", but instead he just goes down a few ticks. By the same logic, imab's constant mentioning of DoTArchon as scummy, while literally never providing a reason other than DoTA's initial vote of TappingStones, could likewise be distancing.
Finally, there's the people he spoke of positively. TappingStones (now dead neutral) was someone imab defended; other than that, the only positive reads he ever expressed were no-reason-given town reads on Bur, Proph, and Jobie/Eco early, and Killjoy, RobRoy, and Huntzilla, and a lean town on Gentleman Johnny later on. Of these, Huntzilla has a slight extra reason to be paid attention to, as imab mentioned him earlier on as scummy, but came around with no reason given. That's a very minor point, though, when dealing with someone who is already flipped as scum.
The last thing I wanted to cover was whether imab was co-scum with leuko and/or Hawk. The only real interaction he had with either was saying that he'd be fine with a governing of them in 601; leuko had previously asked him a question in 204, which he responded to in 206. That isn't much to go on, but I'm guessing that imab and leuko were co-scum. The initial exchange to build some non-aggressive interaction, and then imab saying he's fine with a reveal of leuko when leuko was under no pressure. I really have no clue about Hawk, though, and without being able to link all three together, I don't know if this analysis can be relied upon or not.
I'm still not going to just dump my limited scum reads because they are almost entirely unsubstantiated. As I get the time to look at them and come to an evidence-based conclusion, I'll post them. Like this.
I feel that Anaklusmos has displayed very little intention to hunt scum, and has spent most of the game sitting very squarely on the fence and pretending to look productive without actually attempting to find the bad guys.
Out of his 26 posts, Anak has mentioned how large and complex the game is in 7 of them (about a quarter). This gives him something to talk about that isn't scumhunting, as well as providing an excuse for not having any good reads. #157 makes this very explicit. (Also notice the "larger post" he promises never materialises).
Anak has also been incredibly reluctant to have a clear opinion, and remains solidly rooted on the fence on multiple players. Examples:
At the very start of the game he calls Hans' claim a town move, but is also very insistent on making sure everyone knows that doesn't mean Anak things Hans is town, just that he did a town thing.
#196 sees Anak unable to come to a conclusion on Nacho's claim, as well as getting exactly nowhere on TS vs Tom.
#481 has Anak admitting there are some good points against Nacho, but no actually analysis of these points, or moving toward any conclusion from them.
Eventually, Anak has an actual opinion and votes IMAB in #628. This vote, however, stinks: the reason behind it is that IMAB put DV on ignore. Not only is this is not actually a scum tell (just poor play ), but the vote also doesn't actually take into account anything about DV's case that IMAB was allegedly trying to dodge, the strength of which would be directly relevant to how good a vote for ignoring it would be. Furthermore, Anak doesn't look for any tells other than the current hot topic of conversation strongly - for example IMAB throwing his vote at anything that moved - suggest Anak's vote was an opportunistic bandwagon, and not a genuine attempt to find scum. This is further demonstrated in #724, where Anak makes nebulous mention of "the case" without actually elaborating or presenting one himself.
The weakness of Anak's attack on IAMB is fully exposed in #846. He finally presents some actual points against IMAB, but the case is shoddy, and boils down to "you are being belligerent and not reading the thread" which is not really a scum tell. Despite this, Anak went to the effort of actually making points, and "Liking [his] vote right where it is", and yet in the very next line he says "IAMB ... has had enough non-answers for me to lean scum on him". How exactly is Anak only leaning scum on someone moments before he was very happy to still be voting?
In #995, Anak questions IMAB on why IMAB called the recently claimed not-town TappingStones confirmed town. Anak has literally caught IMAB in a lie here, and yet is displayed such little enthusiasm that I can't believe that Anak is actually invested in trying to get IMAB lynched.
Finally, #1063 comes to the completely illogical conclusion that IMAB defending a confirmed neutral is somehow scummy, which is partially corrected in #1706 where Anak bascially just shrugs his shoulders and says IMAB might be scum anyway.
For bonus scum points, Anak fishes for role information in #341 and #995.
In conclusion, Anak's game has been characterised by a huge amount of fence-sitting, unproductive musings on how gosh darn complicated this game is, and although he has asked a lot of questions, they have been inviting opinions while avoiding providing any of this own, and have never been followed up on. When Anak did eventually produce an actual read (out of a total of one), his vote is based on current hot-topic discussion, and never goes beyond that, even when catching IMAB in a lie. This lack of drive to lynch a suspect combines with Anak's own inconsistent language (being happy voting someone he consider only leaning scum), along with a total lack of scumhunting beyond his single vote clearly displays a complete disinterest in actually finding and lynching scum. This is, quite clearly, the mindset of scum looking to keep their head down and not commit to anything.
The only problem I have is that I don't actually know how to vote Anak. I am going to assume the player list loops round from the bottom back to the top and Vote tomsloger
Why do you think that we shouldn't test Nacho's ability toDay (and get confirmed town/scum) in the process?
Generally speaking, I don't feel you gain all that much by preventing the lynch. You should be trying to lynch people you think are scum, and if you're right and the lynch is stopped, you just have to lynch them again the next day. However, I'm open to changing my mind here, because with so many Scum already dead, the loss of time isn't as much of a downside, and it would be nice to confirm Nacho's ability.
mafia 1, youre next.
vote: DoTArchon (redirects to gj)
this is still what i want for today. i dont think we get much info from the death of an entire team.
This is probably the worst game I could possibly have chosen to start playing again with, but I wanted to help Taredas out. I've seen Robroy's post about votes, is there anything else I need to know right now?
you should also know that nacho has claimed governor that can publicly reveal whoever he pardons. the general consensus is that we should do that tonight.
gj has claimed he is masoned with another player who is not yet playing. he is my choice for reveal.
D_V is not part of the game yet. hans skipped Day 1. i move the votes maybe.
welcome to mindscrew.
Now there is only one.
GJ and Robroy are not at the top of my list.
I think GJ is a good target for now.
Robroy actually gains a lot of credence to me with these revelations, because of his ample defense of Businessman. If he is mafia 1, then he would defend businessman because in his mind it is a town v. town fight and because of this equates to him gaining townie points with a strong player.
In other news,
Welcome Ecophagy!
Vote DoTArchon
Is that the Game Host/Moderator is definitely possibly playing the game in some manner. I was told this by a friend.
Who phoned a friend.
And besides, I'm not understanding your point. You say that he's town since he defended IMAB, while as scum he would defend IMAB to gain town points...?
Getting clarification on one item, will have some relevant ability info to share later.
Good luck, town.
Also.....I GET CONFIRMED VIA OTHER MASON. Why would you waste a day's confirmation on me? Like seriously. There is even a fair chance I get shot in the face tonight anyway.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Indeed. Assuming Azrael is on board with it, it would need to be an item that reveals your affiliation - not one that makes you look innocent.
Welcome!
Wow. Three dead, all scum, and all Mafia 2? Iiiinteresting.
Multiple mafias, unfortunately, really does screw up our reads based on the bodies. There's no way to know whether Hawk, imab, and leuko were all in Mafia 2 before the modkills, or whether they were split between the mafias, and the mod consolidated the remaining scum into Mafia 1 afterwards. This puts us nearly back to square one as far as interaction reads.
If you're trying to attack me, "credence" cannot be the word you want to use. I would also argue the factual nature of "ample". And if your slapfight with imab is what you're trying to refer to with "town v. town", then I'd also argue "strong".
I think he's trying to say that mafia1!RobRoy, seeing D_V and imab going at each other, would try to be a voice of reason and defend imab, and that's what he thinks I did. The problem is that it's possible to justify pretty much anything as being something that scum might do, since they often just don't want to die. What he needs to do, if he really thinks I'm scum, is show how what I posted is incompatible with town!RobRoy's mindset.
I don't understand where "two traitors" came from.
Well, if he were a full claimed mason, we'd know for sure that there is someone else out there who can vouch for him in the future. The way he's been describing things so far, it sounds like his counterpart may never actually enter the thread.
That said, I think I'd still prefer to leave GJ until tomorrow. Given the claim, I'd like to give at least one night/day cycle for the other player to hopefully enter the game. If she still isn't here tomorrow, I'll be taking a long, hard look at Randy.
As for who I do dislike at this time... Necarg is still up there. Waiting to hear what Huntzilla has to claim, but he's on my radar. And I'd like to reread hansanator at some point, as the only re-awakened lurker with continuity, but won't have time to do that soon.
the purpose is to confirm things, yes? i mean, maybe johnny is scum. that would be great.
but if hes town, then we would confirm him, his partner when she enters, and your ability. sounds ideal.
There is clearly other choices to confirm, went deal with me when I am self resolving?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
That sentence isn't fully complete at all.
Uhhh. Yeah.
Basically my overall thoughts on RobRoy.
Robroy has a lot of credence to being town. While I want to trust him, my overall dislike was his dismissive nature on the bussinessman lying thing.
Robroy is town in my book, but I have this feeling I can't shake in my gut that says otherwise and I can't really place a finger on why. I feel that in many ways he is just hedging bets and bringing up points against other players arguments but hasn't developed a lot of his own feelings.
IDK maybe I am just wrong. Kind of why I want the reveal on him is because of this it would settle things once and for all. I am also on the fence ish about GJ and yeah he claims to be "confirmed", but.... If I was mafia this seems like a decent fake claim and he can just fall back on my mason never came into the game argument, I am starting to want to leave him to a later date though, because regardless of the length of the game this is after all still day one.
I also hate to say this but I have a lot of suspicion right now on our replacements. I was debating, whether or not to talk about this but I feel that it has a lot of merit, I just don't feel that it is entirely in the spirit of playing a game to talk about this. Taredas is salvaging roles, he had many people to choose from to replace in he choose to kill off a mafia group but to keep others alive. The answer to me on this is that these are power roles, or roles in the other mafia group or something that actually mattered to the game like Mao. At first I didn't want to draw attention to this, but I feel that the mafia(If there is another group), will be discussing this as well.
Go with another read that didn't claim mason.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
but this is mindscrew. i could see an actual mason being scum. even if HP was here to say you were confirmed town, that doesnt make it 100% in my mind.
revealing you now either catches you or makes you actually untouchable. its win-win (or eventually reveals that nacho is false, i suppose)
at this point, i think my second choice for reveal might be myself. i dont remember who said it (might have been you) but making the scum choose between NKing me or letting me run around confirmed seems awesome.
my role PM has a lot of words that vaguely do stuff, but its certainly not worth a NK.
I'm basically going to just keep up with the game from here on, because I'm pretty busy and reading #1200 posts is a massive slog that I just don't have time for
An assumption:
necarg has a role that allows him to edit posts.
hes having fun with it, which i appreciate. i suggest bookmarking his current home post so you can check in on him when you feel like.
and while i think it more fun than obnoxious, its definitely both.
it is, in fact, the basis of my town read on him. its very much a "just for the hell of it" decision, completely unmindful of how we perceive him.
which is not something i would expect from scum necarg
A second scum team makes interactions really interesting, or rather it would if they weren't all dead. It is possible that the teams were consolidated, but that would mean that at some point, they weren't the same team, and as such there is still beneficial interaction analysis that can be done earlier in the day. Will go back and see if I can find anything out there, how likely is it that the teams were consolidated? Is there really a precedent for that from other games?
My hunch with Necarg is that he has a specific amount of posts he can make during the day, this way he edits one for general posts and such, and saves new ones for votes and other things that need to be said at a specific point. Editing one post over and over for the hell of it seems really obnoxious, bookmarking the post helps but still.
@Tom Why is scum!Necarg less likely to do something that generally is obnoxious for the town than town!Necarg? I feel like its more null in your case, if thats how you believe his ability to work.
You're not wrong. The only people I've really had strong feelings about this game have been Hawk, Tapping, tomsloger, and Gentleman Johnny, and even about GJ I have a fair bit of ambivalence. It's something that I'm hoping I'll be able to work on going forward - ideally as soon as we have a dead scum that we can actually be sure has living buddies. I still feel like this is an awful reason to end the day with a reveal on someone, though.
Huh. I don't feel like the mod would have gone out of his way to save a power role - he talked in-thread about the need to re-balance the game, so I feel like he could just have just let strong townie roles die instead of needing to do that. On the other hand, if he needed to replace one member of Mafia 1 and three of Mafia 2, I could definitely see him swapping the replacement into Mafia 1 and letting all of Mafia 2 die. On the gripping hand, the same logic could apply if he needed replacements for a townie and three mafiosos, which pretty much eliminates the usefulness of this line of speculation.
My worry here - and to be explicit, I do not want Gentleman Johnny to comment one way or the other on this - is that taking GJ out might prevent the counterpart from entering the game. I'd rather wait at least one day before making a move on him to try to give a window for the new player to enter the game.
Also disagree on this. You're my strongest townie read in this thread, and I'd rather use the lynch somewhere that will actually have a chance of catching scum.
I don't recall a game having this level of unbalancing modkills in it before, and multiple-scum-team games are pretty rare. The only other one I recall was Doomsday Mafia from ages ago, and that one gave the two scum teams significantly different win conditions.
I'd more likely guess that his posts are limited by real-life time, not by game time - no post within 72 hours of a previous one, or whatever.
Also, my issues with him are not so much that he isn't posting as that he isn't providing content. Even when he was editing posts fairly regularly, it was all-too-often song lyrics and such instead of anything substantive. The fact that his edits sometimes wiped out previous content may have contributed to this impression as well, but it doesn't excuse him.
lurk has a different connotation in mafia, but hes straight up lurking about the thread. if we want to know what hes said, we have to go find it.
BUT he did recently say you were right about him having a postcount restriction, so he may have been forced into why i was townreading him.
hmmm.
@robroy who would you like to reveal?
I really want to see what happens into day 3 (2???), and if my comrade comes in.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
**** I was totally behind you until you said that.
Commie.
If you do want to add me, my steam name is Nippleman. If for no other reason, mapping is more productive with another person.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
onetwo and not managed to get anywhere, but I guess it's mostly due to all the lurking and replacements.My first observation is that Tapping_Stones was obvious scum from like post #58. He voted hans, despite the fact that hans choosing to skip a cycle for some personal benefit is exactly the kind of weird, unilateral decision hans would make regardless of alignment. TS compounded his scumminess by repeatedly saying he could not see a town motivation for the action, while completely and absolutely failing to provide a scum motivation for it either. His OMGUS attack on Tom was quite simply laughable, and about the time at which I simply stopped reading TS' posts (this turned out to be a good idea). His claim of "pro town" neutral was somehow accepted by everyone with no proof or detail in the claim, and people just backed off. TS should have been lynched like 900 posts ago, and I'm amazed that his claim got him further away from the noose. Regardless, he's dead, and "Outsider Hitman" doesn't sound pro-town to me.
Second, imabusinesman was really scummy. This could be the wonders of hindsight talking, but his desire to point his vote at literally anything didn't exactly speak of someone interested in carefully finding scum. He's dead as well and scum, so that's good.
I think RobRoy, ghosting, Nacho, and Tom are town. RR and nacho are gut, Tom was right about TS and therefore gets bonus points. Ghosting's #512 thing about having some concrete reason Tom is scum indicates someone actively invested in hunting scum, even though it turned out to be wrong (and not something that can be discussed).
I think Proph almost certainly died because of his role, and not because someone else. I am sure we will hear from him again.
I think Nacho should only prevent a lynch if we lynch someone unintended due to this vote shifting thing going on, or if he genuinely thinks it's a terrible lynch (which he would hopefully make clear before it happens).
@D_V: You spent most of the early game trying to explore the setup, and not hunt scum. Then you spent a lot of time arguing with imabusinesman about avatars. These are not the actions of a scumhunting townie. Could you provide me a quick run down of your top town and scum reads? Also, will you be more corporeal tomorrow?
@GJ: Way back at the start of the game, you threatened to end the day by post 1000. Could you elaborate on why you have chosen not to, and also what you hoped to accomplish by making such a statement? Also, why should we trust the claim of a mason who's partner is conveniently not in a place to confirm them? Could you perhaps explain how we can get your partner into the game?
I've got some loose scum reads, but I need to go back and actually chew them over before I feel comfortable posting them. Too many people came up with no read on my first pass, and with my main suspects dead, I need to have a closer look and sort something out.
Finally, Azrael's role is like tailor made for him. He gets to sit outside the game, twirling his moustache and drinking his cognac, with a mod-mandated air of cryptic omniscience. I bet he's loving every second.
I spent a majority of the game arguing for Businessman and TS lynches. Businessman lied and dismissed my case and TS kind of did the same thing.
I am starting to become wary of Nachomamma8, Killyjoy and Huntz
My other scum ideas are GJ and RR possibly which is why I want to use our clear on them, but I also feel that they are ok to just let exist to an extent.
Town is Tom and honestly RR, I just I've said this before, but something gut wise is off on RR for me. Necarg is also town to me.
you can just post them.
Clear me. I'm fine with that.
Tare hasn't answered whether or not I can share what I want to share. but... I'm almost at the **** it stage and gonna claim anyway. One more real life day and I will spill.
Starcraft ended with a day 1 2000+ post count, and it was miserable with me having no mood to end it. I loathe long days and also think they are an incredible burden to towns (ignore that Starcraft was pretty wrecking for the scum). As far as the mason claim was concerned, because she has a reason to believe she will enter the game eventually (or be pissed at Tare). My ability is also relatively self-resolving, and at the very least shouldn't be dealt with today.
As far as getting her in, our ability(s) has something to do with the shards of the game. Tare wouldn't tell me which shard we were in, but implied our ability(s) might not be the only ones relevant to which shard the gamestate is in. Let's just say I get stronger the more shards pass, and my partner coming in is just the icing on the cake.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching:
@RR The real-life time restriction would mean that he would likely have posted again in this delay though, no? It feels to me like he is intentionally not posting, as opposed to being prevented, which is why I think he has a hard limit of a certain number. He would be using that "on cooldown" if it was real life.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
zero interest in running hunt up.
**** it my vote is Bur or Ghosting for the reveal.
I'd love to do rob roy but I don't think im winning that argument.
i actually would agree normally. and would not want to lynch him if thats what we were talking about. but a reveal on necarg seems like a perfectly fine end to a long Day.
Okay Tom, you are at the moment one of my favourite players on the site (Hunt, you have competition), so I'm going to be nice and teach you something:
Speculating in games is good, there's nothing wrong with that. However, baseless speculation is not really useful (and could even be harmful) to town.
Ever heard of Occam's razor? It states that among all theories, the one with least assumptions is the one you should choose to believe.
I mean, even I could start convincing you guys that you all are actually Taredas' alt accounts and that I'm the only player in this game... But, is that really likely? No.
tl;dr - I don't think GJ's masonry has a single mafia in it. Either he's lying and there's no one or they are masons just like GJ said. (Or trying the mason gambit.)
@GJ: I have no interest in pursuing Hunt wagon toDay. If he's scum, it'll become obvious as time passes by.
I don't like Eco's #1231. It feels like repeating what's been said and bit silver rage in it ("TS was so obvious scum, why it took you guys so long to get rid of him! IMAB was also obvious scum! You guys suck") and not much analysis from his side.
@Eco: Why are your (living) scum reads? Even lean scums are okay. Why do you think that we shouldn't test Nacho's ability toDay (and get confirmed town/scum) in the process?
heres what everyone said about our dead, scummy friends:
hawk earned scum reads from nacho, robroy, and ghosting. as well as a lean scum from hunt.
everyone else (myself included) had him as slightly townie or null
hunt and nacho both had leukovirus leaning scum as well. everyone else had null basically.
interesting that they were both together on both of these.
DV was the only one scumreading imab. though bur and killjoy both had him leaning scum
hunt and nacho were, once again, together: putting him as strong town
tapping is a very interesting one indeed, as i think its quite likely he was unaffiliated with either mafia.
fwiw, DV and ghosting were scumreading tapping along with me. ghosting had him leaning scum.
and nacho and hunt were once again together in thinking him very town.
i am unsure what to divine from this information.
its hard to get anything from people's opinion on tapping. im going to leave it be for now.
hunt shamelessly sheeping nacho probably means they arent knowingly aligned.
thinking leukovirus scum when everyone else barely bothered to mention him stinks a little. could easily point to one of them getting their bus in early.
i find it hard to believe one of imabs buddies would want to tie themselves to him too strongly either way. he was just so caustic. town* points for DV, nacho, and hunt there.
*not actual town points, because two mafia teams. but you know what i mean.
now id like to pay special attention to imab's list:
Killjoy-RobRoy-Tappingstones-Huntzilla
Gentleman Johnny
leukovirus-jobie-tomsloger
Ghosting-Nachomamma8
Anaklusmos-Bur-DotArchon
now theres a few possibilities here for his mindset in making this post.
the first is that imab, leuk, and hawk were mafia 2 from the beginning.
for this to be true, imab had to have made a list and put one of his buddies as null and left the other off completely.
i cant see him not taking the opportunity to bus one of them, especially with both being somewhat scumread at the time. this scenario seems very unlikely to me.
the next is that imab was mafia 2 with hawk and leuk was moved there as part of the rebalancing. (hawk i think was always mafia 2, since that death was role related rather than a modkill.)
just leaving a reasonably suspicious buddy off your list is an odd move. it makes the most sense to me if their other teammate was already bussing. the 4 people scumreading hawk seem most likely to be the third in this grouping.
the other option, i suppose, is that their other buddy didnt make a list or didnt mention hawk in it. i again find it unlikely that with 4 people scumreading hawk that neither of his teammates would at least throw him in the lean scum pile
the most likely scenario in my mind is that imab was mafia 1, and hawk and leuk in mafia 2 with an unknown or two. it just seems so obvious to me that imab would bus one of his teammates. especially with him having the knowledge that he was fairly townread but no one really thought he was right
not a whole lot to get from him having moved, but i would be shocked if one of his mafia 1 buddies couldnt be found among his scumreads (ghosting, nacho, anak, bur, DoTA) if this one is right
here's my way-too-early-to-actually-be-right guess of the two scumteams as originally constituted:
Mafia 1 - imab, DoTA, ?
Mafia 2 - hawk, leuk, nacho
beyond imab in mafia 1, i have very little confidence. dota is just the person among imab's scumreads i have the least townie feelings towards.
the third spot could be gentleman johnny, necarg, either replaced slot, or anak/kj/ghosting if my townreads on them are totally off.
im feeling a little worse about nacho, and would like to see him prove his role more than ever.
im starting to come around to the same way of thinking for GJ. neither can expect to just stay alive without having to prove these things eventually.
im not totally sure where i want my vote to be right now.
id still be down for revealing johnny on principle, as he was the only one against being revealed.
and dota seems more appealing than ever.
citric/eco/necarg all seem like copout wagons at this point, but all offer decent information.
DV isnt in the game. nacho cant pardon himself. robroy is totally town.
revealing hunt or anak technically offers some information, but like whatever.
who am i even missing?
Despite the reduced size of the group, I think I'd still rather lynch someone than reveal, with the standard caveat that Nacho can pardon as long as he takes responsibility for it. Right now I'm leaning towards Necarg, but not enough to vote him. I'm trying to do a PBPA of the dead scum (see below), and hopefully that'll turn up something.
Hmm. The game did have a built-in deadline for each day, which we are once again counting down towards, so there isn't actually as much difference between the two as I was initially thinking. If you're right, hopefully the mod allowed him a couple extra posts toDay due to the delays.
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For the record, I'm avoiding looking too closely at tomsloger's latest post as I don't want it to affect my reread too much.
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I'm doing an analysis of the dead scum's posts. If they were an isolated group from the start, then there won't be anything to be learned from this; if not, hopefully something turns up. Best case, I'm able to find something that is inconsistent with them being scumbuddies, and we can start looking further into who their buddies were; worst case, I waste a little time. Starting with the lowest post-count and working my way up.
7hawk77:
45: Lays a quick attack on hansanator.
55: Backs off hansa, questions tomsloger and Anak.
80: Votes Tom. Explains attack in 151, but lays ground for a flip-flop.
152: States that he will be claiming. Responds to questions on this from leukovirus (known scum) in 176, but not much actual interaction. He actually claims in 221.
225: Responds to me questioning why he didn't wait as Ghosting had asked, dismissively.
235: Starts mild attack on Ghosting. Expresses town read on hansanator.
236: Mild attack on Ghosting and RobRoy.
282: Continues spat with Ghosting. This extends into 291.
300: Responds to RobRoy's attack on him. Speaks positively of hansa, negatively of Ghosting.
303: Continues to respond to RobRoy. Positive on Tom and Tapping. Further defends Tom in 305.
689: Mild positive on Necarg, continues to poke Ghosting.
Overall, little actual interaction. The initial attack and then quick reverse on hansanator feels more like scum trying to attack townie than anything that would be done to a scumbuddy, so I doubt Hawk was co-scum with hansa. The support of Tom and the attack on Ghosting are also things that I doubt Hawk would have done to a buddy, so they get a couple points from me on that. The only person that I think comes out of this seeming a little worse is Necarg, and that only from the offhand comment in 689.
Will try to get leukovirus in today as well, but will probably not get to imab before the weekend.
120: Responds to Huntzilla on some questions. Mildly supportive of Tapping.
123: Comments on D_V, no position.
164: Defends Tapping strongly against Necarg. Attacks Tom.
165: Doesn't see hansanator making it Day 2 as necessarily scummy. Elaborates in 171 that he still finds him suspicious, though. leuko continues to talk about this in his next couple posts.
178: Interacts with Hawk (known scum) over Hawk's claim. Nothing much said.
202: Responds to hansanator saying that leuko made a scum slip.
204: Questions imab (known scum) on the Nacho plan.
234: Questions D_V about which Day it is, states support of Tapping, begins to see tomsloger as townier.
292: Responds to questions from Killjoy on hans, stating a null read of hans.
338: Questions Gentleman Johnny on his counterpart.
Around this time there are some posts about leuko's gender which I do not believe are game relevant.
560: He says he will have something to say about D_V, Azrael, and imab after rereads.
And that's it. Not many strong positions of any kind. He was consistently supportive of Tapping, but we know that is not indicative. Pretty much everyone else that he expresses a town/scum opinion on, he slips in some weasel words to cover a jump in either direction. This is most evident in his position on hansanator, where he expresses suspicion, but comes up with reasons to cover it, and later says that his gut says town, but that he dislikes the mechanics of the role. Not much to be learned here.
I'll see if I can do imab tomorrow.
43: votes Jobie (now Ecophagy) for placing a vote on an NPC.
He interacted several times with Bur over his rationale on the Jobie vote.
109: States that D_V is trolling for reactions, and defends TappingStones.
119: States suspicion of D_V, but no longer of Jobie/Eco. He continues to defend Tapping when Bur questions him on the matter in 136.
207: TappingStones asks imab which votes on him look the worst, giving an opinion of Tom or Necarg. imab is mildly positive on Tom and neutral on Necarg, but says that DoTArchon and Huntzilla look bad.
259: Suspicious of D_V, DoTArchon, Huntzilla, tomsloger, hansanator. Townie on Bur, TappingStones, Proph, Jobie/Eco.
Presses others for opinions on D_V.
321: Nachomamma8 votes imab for a meta read. imab responds with a defence and some OMGUS.
482: Votes Azrael.
495: Comments on D_V changing his avatar.
496: In response to Bur, explains Azrael vote further.
524: In response to RobRoy, states why he is waffling on D_V. Claims (incorrectly) that D_V has changed his avatar multiple times.
532: Defends his attacks on Jobie and Proph from D_V.
This is where imab and D_V really start going at it. I don't feel like linking every single post where one badmouths the other, so to cut to the chase: I can't see any way that imab and D_V would have that fight as co-scum.
537: Mild attack on Bur for the town/scum list he posted.
539: Strengthens the attack on Bur. Also states suspicion of Nachomamma8. The attack continues over the following posts.
601: States that he would like to see Nacho govern any of: Bur, tomsloger, leukovirus (known scum), 7hawk77 (known scum). At this point, I believe RobRoy had expressed suspicion of Hawk, and there was no attempt at all to attack leuko.
623: Mild attack on Ghosting, then continues to attack Bur.
630: States scum reads on Bur, DoTArchon, Anak. Milder scum reads on Nacho, Ghosting, tomsloger.
652: Responds to an attack by Ghosting by refuting points but not counterattacking. This continues over the next several posts.
769: Extensive attack on Bur, pulling in quotes from two previous games to support why Bur's posting this game is different (and therefore scummy).
822: Mild attack on Anaklusmos for "not reading the game". Arguments with Anak continue for several posts.
851: Asks Gentleman Johnny, Nacho and tomsloger to comment on Anak.
926: Mild attack on Nacho for wanting to lynch lurkers.
947: Updated reads. Town on Killjoy, RobRoy, TappingStones, Huntzilla. Lean town on Gentleman Johnny. Lean scum on Ghosting and Nacho. Scum on Anaklusmos, Bur, DoTArchon. Clarifies a post later that tomsloger is neutral.
980: Continues attack on Bur.
1012: Continues attack on Anaklusmos.
For different reasons than with D_V, I cannot see imab and Bur being co-scum. If this was a single-mafia game, then I'd put Bur in the "almost cleared" section; as it is, he just gets some townie points. To a lesser degree, the same goes for Anaklusmos. While imabusinessman didn't put as much effort into attacking him as he did Bur, it still looks like an actual attempt to push a lynch.
On the other side of the coin, this has made me feel worse about Ghosting, and to a lesser degree DoTArchon. imab was attacked several times by Ghosting, but never counterattacked, as he did on Nacho, D_V, Bur, and Anak. If (and this is still unprovable) the mod consolidated the scum groups, that could indicate that Ghosting and imab were co-scum, trying to distance without getting either one of them lynched in the process. Again, if this were a single-mafia game, I'd move Ghosting to "likely scum", but instead he just goes down a few ticks. By the same logic, imab's constant mentioning of DoTArchon as scummy, while literally never providing a reason other than DoTA's initial vote of TappingStones, could likewise be distancing.
Finally, there's the people he spoke of positively. TappingStones (now dead neutral) was someone imab defended; other than that, the only positive reads he ever expressed were no-reason-given town reads on Bur, Proph, and Jobie/Eco early, and Killjoy, RobRoy, and Huntzilla, and a lean town on Gentleman Johnny later on. Of these, Huntzilla has a slight extra reason to be paid attention to, as imab mentioned him earlier on as scummy, but came around with no reason given. That's a very minor point, though, when dealing with someone who is already flipped as scum.
The last thing I wanted to cover was whether imab was co-scum with leuko and/or Hawk. The only real interaction he had with either was saying that he'd be fine with a governing of them in 601; leuko had previously asked him a question in 204, which he responded to in 206. That isn't much to go on, but I'm guessing that imab and leuko were co-scum. The initial exchange to build some non-aggressive interaction, and then imab saying he's fine with a reveal of leuko when leuko was under no pressure. I really have no clue about Hawk, though, and without being able to link all three together, I don't know if this analysis can be relied upon or not.
I feel that Anaklusmos has displayed very little intention to hunt scum, and has spent most of the game sitting very squarely on the fence and pretending to look productive without actually attempting to find the bad guys.
Out of his 26 posts, Anak has mentioned how large and complex the game is in 7 of them (about a quarter). This gives him something to talk about that isn't scumhunting, as well as providing an excuse for not having any good reads. #157 makes this very explicit. (Also notice the "larger post" he promises never materialises).
Anak has also been incredibly reluctant to have a clear opinion, and remains solidly rooted on the fence on multiple players. Examples:
Eventually, Anak has an actual opinion and votes IMAB in #628. This vote, however, stinks: the reason behind it is that IMAB put DV on ignore. Not only is this is not actually a scum tell (just poor play ), but the vote also doesn't actually take into account anything about DV's case that IMAB was allegedly trying to dodge, the strength of which would be directly relevant to how good a vote for ignoring it would be. Furthermore, Anak doesn't look for any tells other than the current hot topic of conversation strongly - for example IMAB throwing his vote at anything that moved - suggest Anak's vote was an opportunistic bandwagon, and not a genuine attempt to find scum. This is further demonstrated in #724, where Anak makes nebulous mention of "the case" without actually elaborating or presenting one himself.
The weakness of Anak's attack on IAMB is fully exposed in #846. He finally presents some actual points against IMAB, but the case is shoddy, and boils down to "you are being belligerent and not reading the thread" which is not really a scum tell. Despite this, Anak went to the effort of actually making points, and "Liking [his] vote right where it is", and yet in the very next line he says "IAMB ... has had enough non-answers for me to lean scum on him". How exactly is Anak only leaning scum on someone moments before he was very happy to still be voting?
In #995, Anak questions IMAB on why IMAB called the recently claimed not-town TappingStones confirmed town. Anak has literally caught IMAB in a lie here, and yet is displayed such little enthusiasm that I can't believe that Anak is actually invested in trying to get IMAB lynched.
Finally, #1063 comes to the completely illogical conclusion that IMAB defending a confirmed neutral is somehow scummy, which is partially corrected in #1706 where Anak bascially just shrugs his shoulders and says IMAB might be scum anyway.
For bonus scum points, Anak fishes for role information in #341 and #995.
In conclusion, Anak's game has been characterised by a huge amount of fence-sitting, unproductive musings on how gosh darn complicated this game is, and although he has asked a lot of questions, they have been inviting opinions while avoiding providing any of this own, and have never been followed up on. When Anak did eventually produce an actual read (out of a total of one), his vote is based on current hot-topic discussion, and never goes beyond that, even when catching IMAB in a lie. This lack of drive to lynch a suspect combines with Anak's own inconsistent language (being happy voting someone he consider only leaning scum), along with a total lack of scumhunting beyond his single vote clearly displays a complete disinterest in actually finding and lynching scum. This is, quite clearly, the mindset of scum looking to keep their head down and not commit to anything.
The only problem I have is that I don't actually know how to vote Anak. I am going to assume the player list loops round from the bottom back to the top and Vote tomsloger
Vote Count Please Mod
Generally speaking, I don't feel you gain all that much by preventing the lynch. You should be trying to lynch people you think are scum, and if you're right and the lynch is stopped, you just have to lynch them again the next day. However, I'm open to changing my mind here, because with so many Scum already dead, the loss of time isn't as much of a downside, and it would be nice to confirm Nacho's ability.