Sorry for disappearing. A new cruise started quite hectic.
If I have connection tonight I'll adress Taredas then. Haven't had time to thoroughly read what he wrote.
Ugh, I just feel so helpless about this lynch happening.
If we're not going to lynch Wheat, then I'm fine with lynching Azrael. He's just seeming to intentionally ignore the rest of my questions and has had a very opportunistic hop onto Seppel, citing the "mid-game phase" and a post that I thought showed strong townie tells from Seppel as a "scum post". But in no way we should lynch Seppel.
If there are questions you want me to answer, it's be best to repost or link to them.
I'm not convinced Seppel isn't fighting for his life and a mislynch here. I do feel awkward not having fully cased him, but posts like the one where he " missed" reading that cyan had only a single shot seem very anomalous. Tempted to go back through and check if that pans out.
In any event, interested in looking at his full posting history and wg's. From my perspective, this counter-wagon on me is hella convenient and should be sending g up all kinds of red flags from a wagon dynamics standpoint, though it has led me closer to sharing chris' view of cyan as genuinely confused and tilting.
Sir Chris is now definitely in my highest tier of players, mad respect.
He is quite correct in tracing the origins of my reservations on cyan; i'd simply add that my reservations have been precisely that: reservations on my ability to use my typical methodology to read him, rather than an abundance of reasons to suspect him apart from anti-town effect. It was less that I believe he was actually scum, and more that I was afraid that he COULD be, and not wanting others to rule it out.
But at this point, seeing the way he's wavered so heavily, and displayed so much emotion and self-doubt, those reservations are increasingly diminished.
I'll admit to being so paranoid regarding cyan that I don't know if I'll ever be comfortable stating an unequivocal town read on him, which is about the highest compliment I can pay to anyone's scum game. There has literally been no other player that inspires that kind of reaction in me, anywhere, in any period. Cyan, how you read my description of your scum game as terrible without picking up on the immense sarcasm is beyond me. You are, quite frankly, utterly terrifying to me.
Very happy I chose to play in this game, so I had a chance to run into Chris. It's not often I'm introduced to players of that caliber in these times. *respectful nod*
I haven't blushed so much since Madam Pomfrey told me she liked my new earmuffs, Azrael.
But I am glad to see both Cyan and Az are coming around, this is excellent.
Not that it needs to be said again, but I dislike how Seppel isn't showing his work. He was voting Az, thinking he is scum, but when I post a defense Seppel doesn't bother to try to convince me how I am wrong, he just slinks back to Wheat. Like I understand the thought that he thinks if he is wrong about Az the game breaks, but is that an admission my argument is strong and thus he is wavering? Or just a statement. I would have really liked it if Seppel would have tried to poke holes in what I said.
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Can this day please just be over already. This isn't even about boredom, I just want some more information to work with. Even if it means having been wrong about WG for awhile, it's worth it to have a scum flip.
I understand your feelings, but rushing to decide between Seppel and wheat out of pure frustration could be disastrous if Chris and I are wrong about both of them being scum.
There have been a number of moves they've made lately that could be either town tells or just savvy scum play in a no-win scenario. I'd like to figure out which they were over the weekend.
I understand your feelings, but rushing to decide between Seppel and wheat out of pure frustration could be disastrous if Chris and I are wrong about both of them being scum.
There have been a number of moves they've made lately that could be either town tells or just savvy scum play in a no-win scenario. I'd like to figure out which they were over the weekend.
It's not 'disastrous'. If one of them is not scum, the other is. If neither of them is scum, we are never winning this game anyway.
This is not about frustration at this point. The day just needs to end.
What I *am* frustrated with is the trope is that 'more conversation is always better. This is full on nonsense. The only time 'more conversation is better' is when the scum don't get to participate in it. In a game like this, where most of the players are of comparable skill level, the scum have a huge advantage in this situations, because they always know everything that is going on, and can work that to their advantage.
@Sir Chris: As for me being bored, I work from home, so I literally just sit here hoping that other people have posted something for me to respond to. Which never really happens as much as I would like, but especially not in this game. :/
It's not 'disastrous'. If one of them is not scum, the other is. If neither of them is scum, we are never winning this game anyway.
This is not about frustration at this point. The day just needs to end.
What I *am* frustrated with is the trope is that 'more conversation is always better. This is full on nonsense. The only time 'more conversation is better' is when the scum don't get to participate in it. In a game like this, where most of the players are of comparable skill level, the scum have a huge advantage in this situations, because they always know everything that is going on, and can work that to their advantage.
There's a difference between conversation and information.
More information is always better, and better-informed lynches are preferable. I'd prefer to have our information increase happen while we have a chance to still make use of it.
Seppel reread complete. There's eight pages of posts, so there was quite a bit of skimming through.
At a number of points, I spotted things that appeared to be organic reads and stream of consciousness. My reservations on him are primarily related to his more recent wagon dynamics, the shifts off and on both me and WG, and his cursory posting style prior to really digging in with PBPAs. There was a lot of stuff that was snappy one-liners that didn't evince much of a coherently trackable mindset for IDing town tells. Bottom line, his history is pretty mixed and doesn't have anywhere close to the same number of black marks I expect find on my WG reread. Commencing that now.
Temporary delay on that for baby playtime and Daddy napping.
vote WG. I recall that I had a half-complete analysis on him already worked up, I'll need to backtrack to that and complete it, but I remember enough of it to know this really is where I'm going to want to settle for the day.
I'd like to give Rhand a chance to respond to Taredas, then we can butcher Wheat sure.
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Yeah that actually seems like a good idea, as long as it happens in the next day or two(don't forget that we are now 4 days from a deadline, and a NL is literally the worst idea possible right now). Plus I know Ged is trying to replace Cythare. I don't think he is having much luck, sadly. He told me that he has already let Iso and Voxx into the Spectator group.
It pains me to say this, but...
@Mod, if he is not already spectating, you should just invite Generic. He is an incredible active player, and deserves to be in the game, my personal misgivings with him aside.
Starting at post 178, his first major post ITT. Very long, lots of words, but not actually a great deal of any substance to say when you break it down. There's a lot generic, boring observations about what people are doing, without the sense that WG has any particularly strong feelings as a result of any of it. Not that he's avoiding taking positions, but that each of his positions feels very casual. He doesn't spend great deal of time thinking or talking about any of them, he just rattles off a scattershot list of reads a mile a minute, then moves on to processing the next post, kind of like he's doing it by rote and each post/player/read is something he's doing to cross off his checklist. I get the sense he's just going through the motions.
*Next post - he proceeds to egging on the GJ wagon with a series of one-liners.
Quote from WG »
I'm not opposed to a Proph wagon but he's the least certain of my top 3, and he's also by far the most likely to become more certain as time goes on.
I'm betting on Johnny, Chris, Proph. ZDS is an outside 4th.
Rhand: Why is #15 a slip as opposed to merely being flippant?
Quote from WG »
"Either one of ZDS and Chris is fine to me."
Quote from WG »
"So now that all this is resolved, let's move forward. I think lynching Chris makes the most sense because his whole push on me felt desperate and ridiculous.
unvote, vote: chris
I'm still willing to vote ZDS or Proph, but Chris has become the most certain for me."
Quote from WG »
"If there was a scum in the claimed PRs, Iso is the only one who isn't self-resolving:
Az would either get vigged or there are not enough kills at Night (because there's no way mafia have strongman assuming most or all PRs claimed) and he'd be shown as bogus.
Cyan would get caught for bogus results (unless he did the big bus on a teammate but then he'd still be alive after too many days and that just ain't happening)
Rhand being not dead would eventually catch up with him and show that he's bogus.
Iso doing things wouldn't really give info one way or another, so under the assumption you've posed then yes, he's the only option.
That said, I'm not on board with the idea that there has to be a scum in the claimed PRs. Every claimed PR is ****ed by like Day 3 if they're scum, and each of them would have known they were ****ed going into it."
Quote from WG »
"
I don't know what to make of the last page.
Az looks really bad all of a sudden for that jump off of Proph (who has been called scum for many reasons, not just meta), but he's being jumped on by people who I don't feel very good about, especially Chris.
The Proph wagon is now completely stopped, but Az looks really bad for having stopped it so he can't really be scum with Proph. But that leaves, what is his motivation for jumping off Proph? I actually don't see an explanation for any cells on the Proph/Az alignment matrix.
Cyan made that one really bad post and yet everything else he says sounds fine so I don't really see him as scum. ZDS I called scum at one point but nothing since then has really backed that feeling up for me.
I still don't buy Cythare, not for a second.
It's all a big mess. I feel like Az is scum but it's not clear who his mates could be. GJ maybe? But no evidence points to that, it's just wishful thinking. And then there's Proph and Chris who make sense together, but they don't fit with Az and it's wishful thinking to say they fit with GJ either (GJ's last post hints to it, but not enough for me to feel strong about, no matter what my confirmation bias tells me). Proph's wagon suddenly dissolving doesn't make a whole lot of sense, especially since I doubt Cyan and Az are both scum and therefore they have different motivations for having dumped the wagon.
I don't usually like Day 1 massclaims but this time I feel like we stand to gain a lot from it. I agree with Iso: this game is very close to being solvable."
Quote from WG »
"I'm not opposed to a Proph wagon but he's the least certain of my top 3, and he's also by far the most likely to become more certain as time goes on.
I'm betting on Johnny, Chris, Proph. ZDS is an outside 4th."
I've read over Chris's Az post and I feel like he's placing too much weight on one specific action, namely that of "being paranoid of Cyan". While I do like the points Chris brought up I don't feel it's strong enough to overcome the rest of Az's posts. I still dislike how he was gung-ho about a Wheat lynch but willing to switch his vote onto Seppel as soon as Seppel's wagon built up. That just reeks of opportunism to me.
@Tar:
Quote from Proph »
@Can you answer my question about GJ? And can you tell me more about why you dislike Seppel's comments on Wheat? I personally found Seppel's Wheat case quite strong.
@Az:
Quote from Az »
If there are questions you want me to answer, it's be best to repost or link to them.
2) Why do you think I am town? It feels very strange for you to list out several reasons why you think I'm scum in 1103, then just /barn Taredas's case at the end and call me town.
3) What do you think of Seppel's recent reread posts?
Quote from Az »
I'm not convinced Seppel isn't fighting for his life and a mislynch here. I do feel awkward not having fully cased him, but posts like the one where he " missed" reading that cyan had only a single shot seem very anomalous. Tempted to go back through and check if that pans out.
He also "missed" ZDS's flip Day 1. I logic'd this out in my brain - if Seppel is scum, what does he have to gain by intentionally missing important thread information? All he gets really is a bunch of scrutiny about "how could he miss that". The only conclusion I could come up with is that Seppel is town and somehow missed the flip and the one-shot thing, though IIRC he did do some of that in Vanillaville.
Oh what, you don't think that Az repeating 'I'm afraid of Cyan as scum' over and over means he must be town?????
Just be like me, and realize that Chris is just going to have to get burned by Az as scum and maybe cost the town the game to learn his lesson and hope it doesn't happen again next time. But hopefully we're just wrong. Amusingly, I almost want him to be scum. I'm torn between wanting to be right but hating to lose.
You're right though, Azrael's play today is so comically opportunistic that just thinking about it makes me shake my head. If he had a vig shot left, I would tell him that the best use for it is to shoot himself.
Seppel also 'missed' important flip information as scum in Wu Tang, if memory serves. But we talked so much about me(and Az) being 1-shot in this game that it is very hard to believe that anyone, even Seppel, could have missed it. It's honestly easier to believe that he faked that whole thing just for town credit. But who knows. At least the 'Iso you ********' sums up how we all felt about that whole thing pretty well.
The thing that I'm more weirded about is Seppel interpreting ZDS's flip as scum, but every time I think about it it's a no-win situation for him to fake it (if he's scum).
I really just want this Day to be over - it feels like we've been talking in circles all day and we finally just settled back on a Wheat lynch from like.. the beginning of the month. If this was Day 1 then I would absolutely let the Seppel lynch go through to maintain pace, but meh.
I've read over Chris's Az post and I feel like he's placing too much weight on one specific action, namely that of "being paranoid of Cyan". While I do like the points Chris brought up I don't feel it's strong enough to overcome the rest of Az's posts. I still dislike how he was gung-ho about a Wheat lynch but willing to switch his vote onto Seppel as soon as Seppel's wagon built up. That just reeks of opportunism to me.
I am going to note, because it is important, I have chosen to directly attack one of your main problems with him instead of discussing the interactions I think that seal the deal. There are a host of other things, Cyan, and if you are unconvinced from this post I will continue. You, and ironically Azrael, lack empathy for one another. His fear of you is plain to see. It imposes itself freely upon his actions, making him look a fool. Scum lean towards the calm, not the comically foolish, Cyan.
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I'm kind of ready for this game to end. I was so excited for another Invitational, but I don't know how I missed that it was going to be a 'low power game'. I don't know why people are so stuck on that idea. Everyone loves it because they think it's an 'evenly matched concept', but low power' is really just 'scum favored'. Being the informed minority in a low power game is a tremendous advantage, and I don't understand how people just don't realize this, especially when these games are reviewed 2-3 times over.
For the record, I still think Az's 'BETTER LYNCH ANYONE THAT IS NOT NAMED AZRAEL' behavior today perfectly lines up with my notion that he is neutral scum. Like he tried to straight up bumrush Seppel earlier today. No holds barred style. He had said virtually nothing re: Seppel before that. But hey, I've only been playing mafia with him for 12? years, what do I know.
Oh well, on to tomorrow. I *think* WG is at L-1. And I still agree with SC that it would be nice to see Rhand respond to Taredas. But if we get to Monday, someone just needs to hammer WG.
You actually should lay your various thoughts on the table tonight, SC. I suspect that the scum will NK you tonight. It's the kill that makes the most sense. As much as I honestly do want it to be me, it probably won't, I'm too much in loose cannon mode for them to kill me.
I don't think you need to lay out a full Azrael case or anything, but you know, various thoughts on various players would be helpful.
OOG: Personally I prefer the "Mafia Redux" style of invitational over the kinda-normal setups of this game and basically all the Crosstowns. While of course you want the game to be balanced, you also want high-quality players to be excited about the setup. That's why I loved the split-games of Cyan's Impossible and Mafia Redux II.
I would take low powered over extremely swingy, high-powered ones, though. Always focus on behavior over mechanics.
---
I'd also like to hear Chris's expanded thoughts on Az.
I am preparing my mega post cannon, prepare your anuses.
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Votecount
(4) Sir Chris - Cyan, Gentleman Johnny, Prophylaxis, Wheat_Grinder
(2) Iso - Cythare, Seppel
(2) Wheat_Grinder - Sir Chris, ZeDorkSlipeur
(2) ZeDorkSlipeur - DCIII, Rhand
(1) Prophylaxis - Azrael
(1) Cyan - Iso
The following post was an unvote by Iso onto me to put me at -2.
Some votes are shifted around, and we get this gem from Seppel in 685:
(5) Sir Chris - Cyan, Gentleman Johnny, Prophylaxis, Wheat_Grinder, Iso
(4) ZeDorkSlipeur - DCIII, Rhand, Seppel, Cythare
(2) Wheat_Grinder - Sir Chris, ZeDorkSlipeur
(1) Prophylaxis - Azrael
We can assume Chris will vote ZDS and ZDS will vote Chris.
Which means Azrael can either tie it up or hammer Chris. And based on his last post, it looks like he's going to hammer Chris. :/
This isn't entirely about Az, but damn in hindsight does that look horrific for Seppel. He literally tells the two people who are (very likely) voting scum to vote for each other, in a roundabout way. He frames that totally like the Wheat lynch doesn't matter and then shoves Az to finish the job. I feel this is an important thing when we consider a Seppel/Az pairing, by the way. Does scum Seppel discuss Az's role in the end day scenario like this? It would be a weird interaction for a buddy to have with one another.
So Seppel sets a narrative, and then Azrael responds to said narrative:
I don't think I understand or agree with the idea that the onus to prove you are town lies on the player being wagoned.
If you misread someone and made a bad case on them, that's not their fault, it's yours.
In Chris' case, none of the reasons that have been offered for his lynch strike me as incompatible with a townie mindset. Sometimes people are resigned as town in one game, and fierce and indignant in another. Sometimes they transition from one set of feelings to another in the same game. Sometimes their reads flip on a dime, in ways that others find hard to understand or credit.
I don't find any of the supposed idiosyncrasies that have been pointed out about either ZDS or Chris to be persuasive. My impression is that they're being run up largely through fatigue, inertia, and the fact that Chris has been one of the primary topics of conversation for most of the game day, rather than the fact that the case against him is particularly cogent or compelling.
Every single point I've seen raised regarding both Chris and ZDS is easily explainable from a townie mindset. They're all things that are subject to multiple interpretations, and players like Cyan and DC3 have persuaded the town to focus only on the possible scum rationales, rather than the equally reasonable (or more reasonable) townie rationales.
Flat out rejecting it. Like if Az had gone along with what Seppel had said THEN I would think to myself 'man, Seppel is totally instructing Az here' but Az is just like 'nope nope nope' as if there were a thousand spiders on his computer screen. There are certain turning points in the game to me. Key moments that really matter and tell you someone's heart. Here Azrael had the chance to rip mine out and feed it to me. But he didn't. He defended me with what I consider the right type of shaky logic. Logic is a weird thing, because its so vast and has so many perspectives and details. It's like a diamond, flawed in its own way which makes it beautiful. People who use exactly perfect logic scare me because I can't read them. Imperfections are important. Here Az uses logic that's...really not the best to defend me. He isn't saying I am ULTRA town, but rather I could be, and that's enough. He isn't taking such a bold stance that if I died he could go “I told you so!' I told you so! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbV6-3PlJAA) He was town! I get cred for being right!' he is just asking for restraint in methodology. It comes off so genuine to me, without ulterior motive.
Time to play one of my absolute favorite songs to the sweet, sweet music that is Az kicking Wheat's ass.
Now let's watch as the Town Azrael hunts its natural prey, the scum Wheat Grinder:
Quote from Azrael »
It doesn't sound like a genuine statement, at all on his part. He thinks three separate players are all scum working in concert because they have no other option but to do so, and he isnt' screaming that theory from the rooftops?
He's kind of begrudgingly admitting that that's his position under questioning, and off-handedly suggesting at the same time that it's the three other players who are in a desperate position?
Are you kidding me?
=AzraelOk, so I just read WG's posts, and while it's going to take a hot second to find the time to demonstrate it to everyone else's satisfaction, he's scum in fifteen different ways.
Vote Wheat.
There's no conviction to his reads, no townie emotional reactions, he's gunning for multiple townies with sketchy rationales, he committed Nai/Azrael memorial tell of "if we go through these three players without finding scum, then I'll lynch go for lynching player x", and his analysis of the power role situation looks to be calculated to falsely confirm each player in that group, when nothing of the kind should happen.
Highly encourage others to quickly skim through his posting history.
Quote from ZDS »
Why the **** would I vote Chris?
Rest in peace, you beautiful man.
Of note right after all of this, as I am pleading for people to help with Wheat GJ votes right after Wheat does and Seppel does a celebration dance. I mean I think the wifom here is GJ being like 'if I was scum witrh Wheat why would I do that???” but... god if Wheat is scum does that hammer by GJ really help him out. I was trying my best to tune up the band on Wheat and GJ is like “hammer lol.”
Quote from rhand »
vote Chris
I wasn't roleblocked nor redirected, so there's that.
I'm itching to vote Az, but he still has a provable claim so it would make no sense to lynch him now.
I am starting to think it was a mistake not ISOing Az because stuff keep popping up at me. Like this crappy vote and then the crappy sentiment that he wants to vote Az. His claim is really, really protecting him here.
Then we get to his interactions with Seppel. I just cannot see a scum Seppel linking a scum Az a game from four years ago as a means to make him back off. There are many other more direct ways to interact with your buddies, Az was spot on when he called this fear mongering. The phrasing. Seppel uses in a lot of posts towards Az are really trying to strip him of his confidence. It is a very scummy tactic that I don't think enters the mind in scum on scum interaction. It is insidious to an extreme degree, and highly manipulative.
I think we can all agree that at LEAST one of WG and Seppel is scum, and to me it is an extremely likely they both are. Under these circumstances, given the choice Az made day 1, the attacks Seppel put on Az's doorstep today, and also the scumminess of other people I cannot understand why anyone would go after Az going forward.
Any questions?
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For the record, I still think Az's 'BETTER LYNCH ANYONE THAT IS NOT NAMED AZRAEL' behavior today perfectly lines up with my notion that he is neutral scum. Like he tried to straight up bumrush Seppel earlier today. No holds barred style. He had said virtually nothing re: Seppel before that. But hey, I've only been playing mafia with him for 12? years, what do I know.
You do realize that I'd said multiple times that I thought both WG and Seppel were scum (and were the ONLY players I was confident in), and waited through the stalemate between the two of them for like 5 days keeping my vote on WG, before "opportunistically" switching my vote to the one other guy I felt was scum, with a 2 vote margin between him and a lynch? You call waiting for five days to put someone to L-2 after seeing the town stall out between my two favorite choices a BUM RUSH!?
Dude, you've got to vet your possible pro-town rationales.
For the record if I die tonight and you two are at each other's throats again instead of murdering Seppel I am going to be very cross post game.
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For the record, I still think Az's 'BETTER LYNCH ANYONE THAT IS NOT NAMED AZRAEL' behavior today perfectly lines up with my notion that he is neutral scum. Like he tried to straight up bumrush Seppel earlier today. No holds barred style. He had said virtually nothing re: Seppel before that. But hey, I've only been playing mafia with him for 12? years, what do I know.
You do realize that I'd said multiple times that I thought both WG and Seppel were scum (and were the ONLY players I was confident in), and waited through the stalemate between the two of them for like 5 days keeping my vote on WG, before "opportunistically" switching my vote to the one other guy I felt was scum, with a 2 vote margin between him and a lynch? You call waiting for five days to put someone to L-2 after seeing the town stall out between my two favorite choices a BUM RUSH!?
Dude, you've got to vet your possible pro-town rationales.
I think that, if you are actually town, you should do one of the following things after this game:
A)Find a way to get back to the time when you were actually a strong player.
or
B)Join me in retirement
I remember the days when you getting run up as town would have been simply inconcievable. For so long, you were the one player that I was afraid of. But that is not the case right now, and it honestly makes me sad. If real life is keeping you from being the best player that you can, then, that is regrettable. But go out as legend, not as a chump. If Chris weren't just overwhelmingly town and literally fighting your battles for you at this point, you would probably have gotten (mis?)lynched by now. Be Michael Jordan; don't be Kobe Bryant.
I digress.
If WG flips scum, I'll be relieved but a little disappointed, because it's just one more person that managed to dupe me. If Seppel flips scum, I'll be ecstatic, because it's one more person that I knew was scum all along and didn't waiver on(well not much, I would have always lynched Seppel in the end). And Sir Chris, rest assured, Seppel is getting lynched tomorrow, no matter what. The real challenge will be what comes next.
You know, now I get it. You see a lot of your own struggles in Az this game and it makes your own bitterness for your mess ups even worse because you recognize it in someone you respect as well as yourself.
Personally I think you're just stuck in an uber tilt, you need a little time off, not a full retirement.
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Ah, no. I am done with mafia after this(well, after the final League game). I don't like the insecure flaky player that I've left myself become(which again, is not the player that is going to be on display in that game). I wasn't lying when I told Killjoy that my nickname used to be The Train With No Brakes. And I liked that. Yes, it got on some people's nerves, but it also got results, and more often than not, they were positive results. And I did know how to apply the brakes errr..once in awhile. Also, I don't like what the game itself has become on this site either. The game is fully boring and tedious now. These setups are so small and plodding and just..all around miserable. You have to realize that I cut my teeth on setups that regularly featured 22-26 players with a wide variety of interesting, exciting, and challenging rules that kept you on your toes and kept you thinking and constantly re-evaluating, but weren't TOO wild(for the most part). Now, it takes 2 weeks for the final league game to get 20 people. It's pitiful. And I have to just hope and pray that the setup will live up to my expectations(but at least Zionite is running it, that is something).
Things these days are just so stale. Everything is so formulaic and predictable. Everyone has figured *everything* out. Scum teams have realized that they can just never get involved in a wagon, and eventually, townies will pile on. Or that wagon will dissipate, and another one will start. But the scum can just lurk, and eventually the townies will find some other townie to wagon. And because the roles are all so low powered and non-dynamic, the town just inevitably turns on each other, because eventually they have to lynch SOMEONE. And sure, sometimes that someone is a scum. But usually not. More often than not, it ends up being a garbage lynch like ZDS yesterday. Mods sort of discourage lurking, but not really, because what can they do?
People want to say 'Yeah behavior trumps all!' And on paper, that is all well and good. But in practice, that doesn't really hold up, because good scum hold all of the cards and know how to manipulate the situation to hide while the town just kills each other. This is why 'All Vanilla' games are terrible. It just ends up being a complete crapshoot.
To be fair, I could also see myself playing in a sequel of The Wall Mafia or Amistaria Mafia, or possibly a sequel story for a Xyre game, but only because I feel like I'm already involved in ongoing stories for those games(I'm a sucker for games with tons of flavor), if that makes sense, and I super trust those Mods to make games that are extremely engaging. But that is just the exception that makes the rule.
Ultimately, I've always felt that a person has to recognize when their time comes to an end. And I'm just not having fun anymore, and unless things somehow drastically change around here(and why would they, it seems like I'm the only one that feels this way, and I don't expect the world to revolve aorund me), I can't see that changing. I quit once before, and came back because the community was kind of dying and a promise was made to me that ended up not being fulfilled, but I stuck around anyway, because I truly love the game of mafia. This time feels more permanent.
Man I really hope Rhand shows up soon(like literally any minute would be great) and answers Taredas) so we can get this show on the road). I think he is back on his cruise now, and as someone that sells cruises for a living, I know that internet access on them is extremely unreliable. If we don't hear from him in 24 hours, I think we should just place the final vote and move on.
Starting to play here is what made me quit my old community. I played with you guys and you were so obviously much more skilled than the people I had played with for years and I couldn't even stand to play with them anymore. You've got to do what you've got to do, but I think you're just burned out. But maybe not, and if that's the case it's been fun playing with you, most of the time anyway. I still remember when you quoted mafia 101 to me the first time we crossed paths, boy did that pisse me off.
Wake up Rhand.
Private Mod Note
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...Was it me several times as I mutter about their general lack of ability?
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Cyan, I 100% agree with you. I like mafia still, which is probably because I am guessing I am younger than you, but unwillingness to follow through on vanilla claims, 2-3 people needing to be replaced on day 1 (this game being a random exception) just gets ridiculous. People in general just got flaky, and it makes for a frustrating game state.
I have never been a super strong scum hunter, because so much play I would be considered bad always gets passed off as meta for particular players. What should happened was those first few games, they get lynched, learn why they got lynched, and moved on. Instead, they are allowed to keep their terrible habits, they play another game, someone calls them out on it, and someone else goes "Oh, that is just X person doing Y."
Even this game, Cythare should flip scum, and if he does flip town, should be fricken ashamed of himself. No matter how busy he was, the fact that townCythare can't spare a single thought for how he expects the game to go, can't specifically say why he thought I was scummy, or why Iso was scummy yesterday, just irks me. If he is town, oh fricken. Maybe is replacement will do something relevant, or maybe it will just be more confusion in the ranks.
You know your reads, let's just get to the end, figure out where things went wrong, and talk about hopefully a future for these games, even if it means you do not wish to join us.
@ Cyan - I hear what you're saying re: mj and Kobe. To me, it seems like a question of tradeoffs. On the one hand, I have a lot less time, and less familiarity with the local meta, and people aren't really used to reading me in this new mode.
On the other hand, in the "good old days" you mentioned where I was supposedly in my prime, my analysis only really netted about 50-55% scum hits, which was about comparable to most high tier players here and elsewhere.
Nowadays, despite having substantially less time, I'm doing substantially better, more accurate work than I ever did five or ten years ago. I don't have as much time to convince people I'm right or argue over this or that, but it's gotten a lot easier to look at wagons like zds's and chris's and within thirty seconds know that they are probably mis-targeted.
Pattern recognition only gets better over time if you are looking for the right tells. I do enjoy the more creative setups too and miss those, but I hardly feel like the town is terribly disadvantaged in a basic mini played at at invitational level. Just look at how badly the scum were vaporized the last 2-3 times. It was pretty damn one-sided with or without abilities.
If there are questions you want me to answer, it's be best to repost or link to them.
Quote from Prophylaxis »
2) Why do you think I am town? It feels very strange for you to list out several reasons why you think I'm scum in 1103, then just /barn Taredas's case at the end and call me town.
3) What do you think of Seppel's recent reread posts?
----
@Chris:
Quote from Chris »
This isn't entirely about Az, but damn in hindsight does that look horrific for Seppel. He literally tells the two people who are (very likely) voting scum to vote for each other, in a roundabout way. He frames that totally like the Wheat lynch doesn't matter and then shoves Az to finish the job. I feel this is an important thing when we consider a Seppel/Az pairing, by the way. Does scum Seppel discuss Az's role in the end day scenario like this? It would be a weird interaction for a buddy to have with one another.
It totally makes sense from town!Seppel's perspective, though. With the way the game was going, it looked like ZDS and you were going to be the two lead wagons for Day 1. Seppel wanted the people who were voting the smaller wagon to vote the larger one and make their vote count. At the time I believe Seppel was townreading Wheat.
The thing here is that you're assuming that Seppel is scum to explain the fact that Az is town because if they were scumbuddies, then they couldn't be scum together because of unaligned pairs. I find this to be pretty premature analysis. I also find your "Az/Wheat not scumbuddies" conclusion to be a bit flawed, because we don't know YOUR alignment and also because I don't think Az instigated the Wheat wagon? He just kind of hopped onto it with a bunch of charged language and quote strips from Wheat. If Wheat flips scum here, then barring reread I think Az is likely to be scum.
@Chris: It totally makes sense from town!Seppel's perspective, though. With the way the game was going, it looked like ZDS and you were going to be the two lead wagons for Day 1. Seppel wanted the people who were voting the smaller wagon to vote the larger one and make their vote count. At the time I believe Seppel was townreading Wheat.
The thing here is that you're assuming that Seppel is scum to explain the fact that Az is town because if they were scumbuddies, then they couldn't be scum together because of unaligned pairs. I find this to be pretty premature analysis. I also find your "Az/Wheat not scumbuddies" conclusion to be a bit flawed, because we don't know YOUR alignment and also because I don't think Az instigated the Wheat wagon? He just kind of hopped onto it with a bunch of charged language and quote strips from Wheat. If Wheat flips scum here, then barring reread I think Az is likely to be scum.
Sorry proph, in mobile ATM and try to keep posting to a minimum when I do that. Any time you see grammar or spelling mistakes in my posts, that's likely what's going on.
I felt Seppel's rereads were pretty ok, but reread posts are difficult posts for scum to screw up on, especially if they are being done explicitly for the purpose of defusing pressure. I seldom count on them for either town or scum rereads if the author is on the cusp of death, unless there are special circumstances. I see none here.
I didn't just take his word for it on you. I did a reread on you and found se number of genuine townie markers, but to be perfectly frank, you are still one of the reads I'm less confident in, particularly now that my read on seps is slightly less iron clad. As to what those were specifically, I didn't take notes, I was reading you purely for my own information.
I think you have to be pretty far out there in fantasy land to think that Seppel is town. Is it possible? Sure. But most of that realm of possibility is reasonable doubt created by Seppel himself AFTER he was under suspicion and like..that is what Seppel is good at doing. When you look at the overall picture, his does not add up to a town character. If you think you are going to talk Seppel out of getting lynched tomorrow, you are facing a difficult task. Like..Sisyphus had it easier. Wheat's alignment flip doesn't even matter. Ged could come along and say 'I'm not telling you WG's alignment until the end of N3 and we would STILL lynch Seppel tomorrow. We would just do so in a huff.
I think you have to be pretty far out there in fantasy land to think that Seppel is town. Is it possible? Sure. But most of that realm of possibility is reasonable doubt created by Seppel himself AFTER he was under suspicion and like..that is what Seppel is good at doing. When you look at the overall picture, his does not add up to a town character. If you think you are going to talk Seppel out of getting lynched tomorrow, you are facing a difficult task. Like..Sisyphus had it easier. Wheat's alignment flip doesn't even matter. Ged could come along and say 'I'm not telling you WG's alignment until the end of N3 and we would STILL lynch Seppel tomorrow. We would just do so in a huff.
Seppel is not on my good side, but there's often too much hyperbole in your reads, like you're over-compensating for being in doubt. Same thing was going on with your read on me, "There's no way Azrael is town!" - and then two days later, after actually reading me, you change your mind.
Yeah, he's not been someone I'm happy with. But is it utterly impossible for say, a Proph/Rhand/WG team to exist?
I prefer to think in terms of percentages, rather than absolutes.
Even if we thought Rhand was possible scum (which we don't) the fact that he could easily resolve itself tomorrow or the day after means we can save him for later. Proph is likely wrong, and WG is the one read we agree on.
Wait for night, maybe the whole seppel thing will be dealt with some other way. Rhand itself will likely resolve itself anyway.
If I have connection tonight I'll adress Taredas then. Haven't had time to thoroughly read what he wrote.
If I'm wrong about Az, then I really don't know where to go from there.
It'd be really neat if Cythare walked in here with a wall post that replied to every post since he last checked the thread.
If there are questions you want me to answer, it's be best to repost or link to them.
I'm not convinced Seppel isn't fighting for his life and a mislynch here. I do feel awkward not having fully cased him, but posts like the one where he " missed" reading that cyan had only a single shot seem very anomalous. Tempted to go back through and check if that pans out.
In any event, interested in looking at his full posting history and wg's. From my perspective, this counter-wagon on me is hella convenient and should be sending g up all kinds of red flags from a wagon dynamics standpoint, though it has led me closer to sharing chris' view of cyan as genuinely confused and tilting.
Sir Chris is now definitely in my highest tier of players, mad respect.
He is quite correct in tracing the origins of my reservations on cyan; i'd simply add that my reservations have been precisely that: reservations on my ability to use my typical methodology to read him, rather than an abundance of reasons to suspect him apart from anti-town effect. It was less that I believe he was actually scum, and more that I was afraid that he COULD be, and not wanting others to rule it out.
But at this point, seeing the way he's wavered so heavily, and displayed so much emotion and self-doubt, those reservations are increasingly diminished.
I'll admit to being so paranoid regarding cyan that I don't know if I'll ever be comfortable stating an unequivocal town read on him, which is about the highest compliment I can pay to anyone's scum game. There has literally been no other player that inspires that kind of reaction in me, anywhere, in any period. Cyan, how you read my description of your scum game as terrible without picking up on the immense sarcasm is beyond me. You are, quite frankly, utterly terrifying to me.
But I am glad to see both Cyan and Az are coming around, this is excellent.
Not that it needs to be said again, but I dislike how Seppel isn't showing his work. He was voting Az, thinking he is scum, but when I post a defense Seppel doesn't bother to try to convince me how I am wrong, he just slinks back to Wheat. Like I understand the thought that he thinks if he is wrong about Az the game breaks, but is that an admission my argument is strong and thus he is wavering? Or just a statement. I would have really liked it if Seppel would have tried to poke holes in what I said.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
There have been a number of moves they've made lately that could be either town tells or just savvy scum play in a no-win scenario. I'd like to figure out which they were over the weekend.
If you wind up not lynching me, I'll see you toMorrow.
It's not 'disastrous'. If one of them is not scum, the other is. If neither of them is scum, we are never winning this game anyway.
This is not about frustration at this point. The day just needs to end.
What I *am* frustrated with is the trope is that 'more conversation is always better. This is full on nonsense. The only time 'more conversation is better' is when the scum don't get to participate in it. In a game like this, where most of the players are of comparable skill level, the scum have a huge advantage in this situations, because they always know everything that is going on, and can work that to their advantage.
There's a difference between conversation and information.
More information is always better, and better-informed lynches are preferable. I'd prefer to have our information increase happen while we have a chance to still make use of it.
@Mod: Can we please have a Vote Count?
At a number of points, I spotted things that appeared to be organic reads and stream of consciousness. My reservations on him are primarily related to his more recent wagon dynamics, the shifts off and on both me and WG, and his cursory posting style prior to really digging in with PBPAs. There was a lot of stuff that was snappy one-liners that didn't evince much of a coherently trackable mindset for IDing town tells. Bottom line, his history is pretty mixed and doesn't have anywhere close to the same number of black marks I expect find on my WG reread. Commencing that now.
vote WG. I recall that I had a half-complete analysis on him already worked up, I'll need to backtrack to that and complete it, but I remember enough of it to know this really is where I'm going to want to settle for the day.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
It pains me to say this, but...
@Mod, if he is not already spectating, you should just invite Generic. He is an incredible active player, and deserves to be in the game, my personal misgivings with him aside.
Ok, WG.
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/forum-games/mafia/640720-the-2015-mtgs-mafia-invitational-day-2?page=4#c178
Starting at post 178, his first major post ITT. Very long, lots of words, but not actually a great deal of any substance to say when you break it down. There's a lot generic, boring observations about what people are doing, without the sense that WG has any particularly strong feelings as a result of any of it. Not that he's avoiding taking positions, but that each of his positions feels very casual. He doesn't spend great deal of time thinking or talking about any of them, he just rattles off a scattershot list of reads a mile a minute, then moves on to processing the next post, kind of like he's doing it by rote and each post/player/read is something he's doing to cross off his checklist. I get the sense he's just going through the motions.
*Next post - he proceeds to egging on the GJ wagon with a series of one-liners.
Please NK me. Thanks.
Yours Truly,
Cyan
FINALLY.
---
I've read over Chris's Az post and I feel like he's placing too much weight on one specific action, namely that of "being paranoid of Cyan". While I do like the points Chris brought up I don't feel it's strong enough to overcome the rest of Az's posts. I still dislike how he was gung-ho about a Wheat lynch but willing to switch his vote onto Seppel as soon as Seppel's wagon built up. That just reeks of opportunism to me.
@Tar:
@Az:
2) Why do you think I am town? It feels very strange for you to list out several reasons why you think I'm scum in 1103, then just /barn Taredas's case at the end and call me town.
3) What do you think of Seppel's recent reread posts?
He also "missed" ZDS's flip Day 1. I logic'd this out in my brain - if Seppel is scum, what does he have to gain by intentionally missing important thread information? All he gets really is a bunch of scrutiny about "how could he miss that". The only conclusion I could come up with is that Seppel is town and somehow missed the flip and the one-shot thing, though IIRC he did do some of that in Vanillaville.
Oh what, you don't think that Az repeating 'I'm afraid of Cyan as scum' over and over means he must be town?????
Just be like me, and realize that Chris is just going to have to get burned by Az as scum and maybe cost the town the game to learn his lesson and hope it doesn't happen again next time. But hopefully we're just wrong. Amusingly, I almost want him to be scum. I'm torn between wanting to be right but hating to lose.
You're right though, Azrael's play today is so comically opportunistic that just thinking about it makes me shake my head. If he had a vig shot left, I would tell him that the best use for it is to shoot himself.
Seppel also 'missed' important flip information as scum in Wu Tang, if memory serves. But we talked so much about me(and Az) being 1-shot in this game that it is very hard to believe that anyone, even Seppel, could have missed it. It's honestly easier to believe that he faked that whole thing just for town credit. But who knows. At least the 'Iso you ********' sums up how we all felt about that whole thing pretty well.
I really just want this Day to be over - it feels like we've been talking in circles all day and we finally just settled back on a Wheat lynch from like.. the beginning of the month. If this was Day 1 then I would absolutely let the Seppel lynch go through to maintain pace, but meh.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
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2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
I'm kind of ready for this game to end. I was so excited for another Invitational, but I don't know how I missed that it was going to be a 'low power game'. I don't know why people are so stuck on that idea. Everyone loves it because they think it's an 'evenly matched concept', but low power' is really just 'scum favored'. Being the informed minority in a low power game is a tremendous advantage, and I don't understand how people just don't realize this, especially when these games are reviewed 2-3 times over.
For the record, I still think Az's 'BETTER LYNCH ANYONE THAT IS NOT NAMED AZRAEL' behavior today perfectly lines up with my notion that he is neutral scum. Like he tried to straight up bumrush Seppel earlier today. No holds barred style. He had said virtually nothing re: Seppel before that. But hey, I've only been playing mafia with him for 12? years, what do I know.
Oh well, on to tomorrow. I *think* WG is at L-1. And I still agree with SC that it would be nice to see Rhand respond to Taredas. But if we get to Monday, someone just needs to hammer WG.
I don't think you need to lay out a full Azrael case or anything, but you know, various thoughts on various players would be helpful.
I would take low powered over extremely swingy, high-powered ones, though. Always focus on behavior over mechanics.
---
I'd also like to hear Chris's expanded thoughts on Az.
(4) Wheat_Grinder - Cyan, Seppel, Azrael, Prophylaxis
(3) Seppel - Wheat_Grinder, Sir Chris, Gentleman Johnny
(1) Azrael - Rhand
(1) Rhand - Taredas
Not Voting: Cythare
With 10 alive, it's 6 to lynch.
A deadline has been set for Tuesday, December 1st at 5pm CST.
Cythare has officially asked to be replaced, meaning I am now in full on search for a replacement.
In my mind's eye, Wheat, Seppel, Cythare, and eventually Az will likely die. The order is pretty much irrelevant at this stage.
As unsportsman like as it may be, I would rather Cythare's slot just be point blank modkilled.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
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2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClQcUyhoxTg
As of post# 671 this was the vote count:
Votecount
(4) Sir Chris - Cyan, Gentleman Johnny, Prophylaxis, Wheat_Grinder
(2) Iso - Cythare, Seppel
(2) Wheat_Grinder - Sir Chris, ZeDorkSlipeur
(2) ZeDorkSlipeur - DCIII, Rhand
(1) Prophylaxis - Azrael
(1) Cyan - Iso
The following post was an unvote by Iso onto me to put me at -2.
Some votes are shifted around, and we get this gem from Seppel in 685:
This isn't entirely about Az, but damn in hindsight does that look horrific for Seppel. He literally tells the two people who are (very likely) voting scum to vote for each other, in a roundabout way. He frames that totally like the Wheat lynch doesn't matter and then shoves Az to finish the job. I feel this is an important thing when we consider a Seppel/Az pairing, by the way. Does scum Seppel discuss Az's role in the end day scenario like this? It would be a weird interaction for a buddy to have with one another.
So Seppel sets a narrative, and then Azrael responds to said narrative:
Flat out rejecting it. Like if Az had gone along with what Seppel had said THEN I would think to myself 'man, Seppel is totally instructing Az here' but Az is just like 'nope nope nope' as if there were a thousand spiders on his computer screen. There are certain turning points in the game to me. Key moments that really matter and tell you someone's heart. Here Azrael had the chance to rip mine out and feed it to me. But he didn't. He defended me with what I consider the right type of shaky logic. Logic is a weird thing, because its so vast and has so many perspectives and details. It's like a diamond, flawed in its own way which makes it beautiful. People who use exactly perfect logic scare me because I can't read them. Imperfections are important. Here Az uses logic that's...really not the best to defend me. He isn't saying I am ULTRA town, but rather I could be, and that's enough. He isn't taking such a bold stance that if I died he could go “I told you so!' I told you so! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbV6-3PlJAA) He was town! I get cred for being right!' he is just asking for restraint in methodology. It comes off so genuine to me, without ulterior motive.
Time to play one of my absolute favorite songs to the sweet, sweet music that is Az kicking Wheat's ass.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2X_2IdybTV0
Now let's watch as the Town Azrael hunts its natural prey, the scum Wheat Grinder:
Rest in peace, you beautiful man.
Of note right after all of this, as I am pleading for people to help with Wheat GJ votes right after Wheat does and Seppel does a celebration dance. I mean I think the wifom here is GJ being like 'if I was scum witrh Wheat why would I do that???” but... god if Wheat is scum does that hammer by GJ really help him out. I was trying my best to tune up the band on Wheat and GJ is like “hammer lol.”
I am starting to think it was a mistake not ISOing Az because stuff keep popping up at me. Like this crappy vote and then the crappy sentiment that he wants to vote Az. His claim is really, really protecting him here.
Then we get to his interactions with Seppel. I just cannot see a scum Seppel linking a scum Az a game from four years ago as a means to make him back off. There are many other more direct ways to interact with your buddies, Az was spot on when he called this fear mongering. The phrasing. Seppel uses in a lot of posts towards Az are really trying to strip him of his confidence. It is a very scummy tactic that I don't think enters the mind in scum on scum interaction. It is insidious to an extreme degree, and highly manipulative.
I think we can all agree that at LEAST one of WG and Seppel is scum, and to me it is an extremely likely they both are. Under these circumstances, given the choice Az made day 1, the attacks Seppel put on Az's doorstep today, and also the scumminess of other people I cannot understand why anyone would go after Az going forward.
Any questions?
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2015 - Best Town Player
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You do realize that I'd said multiple times that I thought both WG and Seppel were scum (and were the ONLY players I was confident in), and waited through the stalemate between the two of them for like 5 days keeping my vote on WG, before "opportunistically" switching my vote to the one other guy I felt was scum, with a 2 vote margin between him and a lynch? You call waiting for five days to put someone to L-2 after seeing the town stall out between my two favorite choices a BUM RUSH!?
Dude, you've got to vet your possible pro-town rationales.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
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2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
I think that, if you are actually town, you should do one of the following things after this game:
A)Find a way to get back to the time when you were actually a strong player.
or
B)Join me in retirement
I remember the days when you getting run up as town would have been simply inconcievable. For so long, you were the one player that I was afraid of. But that is not the case right now, and it honestly makes me sad. If real life is keeping you from being the best player that you can, then, that is regrettable. But go out as legend, not as a chump. If Chris weren't just overwhelmingly town and literally fighting your battles for you at this point, you would probably have gotten (mis?)lynched by now. Be Michael Jordan; don't be Kobe Bryant.
I digress.
If WG flips scum, I'll be relieved but a little disappointed, because it's just one more person that managed to dupe me. If Seppel flips scum, I'll be ecstatic, because it's one more person that I knew was scum all along and didn't waiver on(well not much, I would have always lynched Seppel in the end). And Sir Chris, rest assured, Seppel is getting lynched tomorrow, no matter what. The real challenge will be what comes next.
Personally I think you're just stuck in an uber tilt, you need a little time off, not a full retirement.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
Things these days are just so stale. Everything is so formulaic and predictable. Everyone has figured *everything* out. Scum teams have realized that they can just never get involved in a wagon, and eventually, townies will pile on. Or that wagon will dissipate, and another one will start. But the scum can just lurk, and eventually the townies will find some other townie to wagon. And because the roles are all so low powered and non-dynamic, the town just inevitably turns on each other, because eventually they have to lynch SOMEONE. And sure, sometimes that someone is a scum. But usually not. More often than not, it ends up being a garbage lynch like ZDS yesterday. Mods sort of discourage lurking, but not really, because what can they do?
People want to say 'Yeah behavior trumps all!' And on paper, that is all well and good. But in practice, that doesn't really hold up, because good scum hold all of the cards and know how to manipulate the situation to hide while the town just kills each other. This is why 'All Vanilla' games are terrible. It just ends up being a complete crapshoot.
To be fair, I could also see myself playing in a sequel of The Wall Mafia or Amistaria Mafia, or possibly a sequel story for a Xyre game, but only because I feel like I'm already involved in ongoing stories for those games(I'm a sucker for games with tons of flavor), if that makes sense, and I super trust those Mods to make games that are extremely engaging. But that is just the exception that makes the rule.
Ultimately, I've always felt that a person has to recognize when their time comes to an end. And I'm just not having fun anymore, and unless things somehow drastically change around here(and why would they, it seems like I'm the only one that feels this way, and I don't expect the world to revolve aorund me), I can't see that changing. I quit once before, and came back because the community was kind of dying and a promise was made to me that ended up not being fulfilled, but I stuck around anyway, because I truly love the game of mafia. This time feels more permanent.
Man I really hope Rhand shows up soon(like literally any minute would be great) and answers Taredas) so we can get this show on the road). I think he is back on his cruise now, and as someone that sells cruises for a living, I know that internet access on them is extremely unreliable. If we don't hear from him in 24 hours, I think we should just place the final vote and move on.
Wake up Rhand.
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
2014 - Best Mafia Performance (Individual)(Wu Tang)
2014 - Best Mafia Newcomer
2015 - Best Town Performance (Individual) (Predator)
2015 - Best Town Performance (Group) - Predator Mafia
2015 - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - 2015 Invitational
2015 - Best Town Player
2015 - Best Mafia Player
2015 - Best Overall Player
I have never been a super strong scum hunter, because so much play I would be considered bad always gets passed off as meta for particular players. What should happened was those first few games, they get lynched, learn why they got lynched, and moved on. Instead, they are allowed to keep their terrible habits, they play another game, someone calls them out on it, and someone else goes "Oh, that is just X person doing Y."
Even this game, Cythare should flip scum, and if he does flip town, should be fricken ashamed of himself. No matter how busy he was, the fact that townCythare can't spare a single thought for how he expects the game to go, can't specifically say why he thought I was scummy, or why Iso was scummy yesterday, just irks me. If he is town, oh fricken. Maybe is replacement will do something relevant, or maybe it will just be more confusion in the ranks.
You know your reads, let's just get to the end, figure out where things went wrong, and talk about hopefully a future for these games, even if it means you do not wish to join us.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
On the other hand, in the "good old days" you mentioned where I was supposedly in my prime, my analysis only really netted about 50-55% scum hits, which was about comparable to most high tier players here and elsewhere.
Nowadays, despite having substantially less time, I'm doing substantially better, more accurate work than I ever did five or ten years ago. I don't have as much time to convince people I'm right or argue over this or that, but it's gotten a lot easier to look at wagons like zds's and chris's and within thirty seconds know that they are probably mis-targeted.
Pattern recognition only gets better over time if you are looking for the right tells. I do enjoy the more creative setups too and miss those, but I hardly feel like the town is terribly disadvantaged in a basic mini played at at invitational level. Just look at how badly the scum were vaporized the last 2-3 times. It was pretty damn one-sided with or without abilities.
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@Chris: It totally makes sense from town!Seppel's perspective, though. With the way the game was going, it looked like ZDS and you were going to be the two lead wagons for Day 1. Seppel wanted the people who were voting the smaller wagon to vote the larger one and make their vote count. At the time I believe Seppel was townreading Wheat.
The thing here is that you're assuming that Seppel is scum to explain the fact that Az is town because if they were scumbuddies, then they couldn't be scum together because of unaligned pairs. I find this to be pretty premature analysis. I also find your "Az/Wheat not scumbuddies" conclusion to be a bit flawed, because we don't know YOUR alignment and also because I don't think Az instigated the Wheat wagon? He just kind of hopped onto it with a bunch of charged language and quote strips from Wheat. If Wheat flips scum here, then barring reread I think Az is likely to be scum.
Sorry proph, in mobile ATM and try to keep posting to a minimum when I do that. Any time you see grammar or spelling mistakes in my posts, that's likely what's going on.
I felt Seppel's rereads were pretty ok, but reread posts are difficult posts for scum to screw up on, especially if they are being done explicitly for the purpose of defusing pressure. I seldom count on them for either town or scum rereads if the author is on the cusp of death, unless there are special circumstances. I see none here.
I didn't just take his word for it on you. I did a reread on you and found se number of genuine townie markers, but to be perfectly frank, you are still one of the reads I'm less confident in, particularly now that my read on seps is slightly less iron clad. As to what those were specifically, I didn't take notes, I was reading you purely for my own information.
In the realms of night kills, we probably lose Rhand, Taredas, and Cyan. If for whatever reason, they choose different targets, all the better.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Seppel is not on my good side, but there's often too much hyperbole in your reads, like you're over-compensating for being in doubt. Same thing was going on with your read on me, "There's no way Azrael is town!" - and then two days later, after actually reading me, you change your mind.
Yeah, he's not been someone I'm happy with. But is it utterly impossible for say, a Proph/Rhand/WG team to exist?
I prefer to think in terms of percentages, rather than absolutes.
Even if we thought Rhand was possible scum (which we don't) the fact that he could easily resolve itself tomorrow or the day after means we can save him for later. Proph is likely wrong, and WG is the one read we agree on.
Wait for night, maybe the whole seppel thing will be dealt with some other way. Rhand itself will likely resolve itself anyway.
The GJ way path to no lynching: