I'm glad to finally hear an explanation for the ghost council that makes sense.
YesterDay I was planning on doing vote count analysis, but the day ended before I completely finished. Since it looks like Axelrod had the same idea I'll just cut to the most interesting part:
Sky blue is used here to indicate a player cleared through mechanics. I am still certain that Vishamon is scum so the other two simic fall into this category.
Take a look at my wagon, with a size of 9 there's no way a member of the scum team isn't on it. Since everyone else on the wagon has pretty much been PoE'd out of suspicion, it looks like axelrod is very likely to be scum.
Also note that his vote is positioned near the front of my wagon, similar to ZDS's vote on cythare.
Let's lynch either Axelrod or Vishamon today and the other tomorrow.
Yeah, Atog, too much "cleared by mechanics" is a sure fire path to game loss. While I might agree it seems unlikely for there to be another scum on the Boros group, after ZDS and DKing, I am not simply writing off the remaining ones as now "clear." Similarly, Zindabad's ability does not "clear" him, any more than Obzedat/DCIII is "clear." I don't even understand the logic where you have Rhand and Scarbo "cleared." Just that you find them less suspicious than Vishamon? Gee, so do I. And even if Vish were scum, you shouldn't "Clear" the remaining Simic just based on that? Where is it written there can only be one scum in the Simic guild? Nowhere, that's where.
It is...very unlikely...the set up is going to be able to be gamed in this way. There's going to be some kind of monkeywrench/curveball that will bite us if we try to lynch based on Guilds. Possibly one of those (oh so common) curveballs that leads players to complain afterwards how the set up was busted/unfair/slanted. Seems like that almost always happens.
This is why what I'm going to be doing is going to just ignore the Guilds. At least right now. I obviously won't ignore it completely, but everyone should look at the behaviors first, and then the mechanic stuff.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Well, maybe I do. And if the question suggests what it seems to suggest, then I'd give the remaining Boros even more of the benefit of the doubt than what I'm already giving them. I'll note that that wouldn't be based on just their Guild though, but behavior.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Wait. If you targeted KA, then you ought to know who killed him.
Is it Atog?
Do I have to actually do anything else today?
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
@Axel: What's not to understand? It's a very simple question. Do you think someone who is in Boros and also scum would target KA with their battalion ability?
Sepi, to clarify, when Orzhov die they join Obzedat and can be voted out, causing their alignment to be revealed? If so I think this supports Taredas's being scum as were he town he'd dismiss himself like Cythare and Seppel did so we could see his flip.
Sepi, to clarify, when Orzhov die they join Obzedat and can be voted out, causing their alignment to be revealed? If so I think this supports Taredas's being scum as were he town he'd dismiss himself like Cythare and Seppel did so we could see his flip.
Pretty much, if Taredas doesnt vote himself out then we have to conclude that he is scum, if he votes himself out then we will see his alignment on flip and we can consider things from there.
I cannot answer questions regarding whether the Obzedat vote requires a majority vote to go through or not, the only thing i know is that from how it was said to me the one actually voting there is DCIII.
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Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
EBWOP: And to be fair considering how 'active' taredas was, i wouldnt be surprised if it took 5-6 RL days to see a body (if any), so we shouldn't auto assume that lack of a body == scum, but the longer it takes the stronger the argument for it becomes.
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Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
@Axel: What's not to understand? It's a very simple question. Do you think someone who is in Boros and also scum would target KA with their battalion ability?
It's not a simple question, it's a silly question. But to state the obvious: a scum Boros would almost certainly not target KA with his Battalion ability on a Night when the Mafia were also planning on trying to kill KA. Like, duh. The only way they might even conceivably try to do so would be if they decided to take a rather huge risk/gamble that KA would be using his redirect ability to move him to someone else, and so the scum wouldn't actually be at risk of killing himself. In short, that almost certainly would not happen.
On the other hand, if the scum were not planning on killing KA, then, sure, a scum might choose to Battalion KA in an effort to keep up Townie appearances. That seemed obvious too.
This is why at first I didn't understand the question. Plus, initially it sounded like you were just taking the Boros people's word for it as to who they claimed to have targeted last night, and I was like, but, they could claim to have targeted anyone? How could we know for certain if they were telling the truth?
Then I realized there was, in fact, a way we could know this, hence the second part of the post.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Days have all ended while I've been at work or asleep
So?
You know that's kind of irrelevant to what we're talking about. You could have been voting a long, long time before the actual end of the day.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
This feels like a complete disconnect from the game events, unless you are trying to imply that you could kill me to get in the council so i can help get taredas out on the open, funny thing there is that that requires that the town loose a vote, with anywhere between 2-3 scum left.
If you want to do this i suggest you do it when have routed at least two more non-orzhov scum then we can remove me so i can get taredas revealed and then you can consider whether Axel should be killed or not (miracles could happen, i mean its possible that two scum are hidden somewhere else outside of Orzhov, i doubt it, im sure it has to be Axel but the point is clear).
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Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
I watched zindabad last night - yes, KK gave me Unexpected Results. Literally every surviving Boros targeted zindabad. Given the claims and redirection, that means they either decided to target KA or zindabad, either way super towny behavior. That you're preemptively trying to say scum would do that to appear towny/dodging what should have been a very straightforward question/discrediting the obvious fact that zinda is town gives me great pleasure to
Unvote
Vote: Axelrod
Sepi, you may have been on to something about Taredas being MIA with the lack of his flip.
@megmod: Do prod/replacement procedures remain in place for dead players that may have effects that persist after death? Should I PM you about this instead?
I will point out again that DCIII wants scarbo lynched so i find the prospect of an Axel/Scarbo team so funny considering their interactions toDay, it makes the entire thing look so artificial and yet so scummy genuine.
@Scarbo: it's hard to tell if you are joking from that post alone, your irony/cynicism/sarcasm wasn't very clear so i couldn't tell otherwise.
Also are you suggesting that Taredas behavior and lack of a body turning up would be an indicator of Townie Taredas? because the way i see it the longer it takes in RL to have a body appear the more we should consider Taredas as scum, specially since his MO this game has been to pop up early at the start of a Day make a neutral post then disappear until prod time. If he is town with this MO he should be on early on to vote himself out of the Council, but as scum he has no reason to if anything it will be advantgeous to the scum to have Taredas remain silent until we lynch axel, and again im telling you guys the risk of having scum control obzedat is very high, we Do NOT want to reach standard lylo only to have scum obzedat force a speed lynch.
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Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
No, I'm saying if Taredas is MIA then the lack of a flip could be ascribed to his absence as opposed to his unwillingness. Plus even if Taredas is actively communicating with DCIII, couldn't he just communicate this to someone in his night message?
Given what you've shared about Obzedat and Orzhov flips, though, my one-scum-per-guild hypothesis falls apart. It makes the most sense for town Orzhov to dismiss themselves from Obzedat ASAP to provide us with flips, so with DCIII's warning that scum could vote him out of Obzedat, such a scenario would really only be feasible if there were more than one Orzhov scum.
its not that i disagree with what you are saying (since its basically what DCIII and I already stated before), but i just want to point out that considering what you are saying it makes no sense that you are voting Axel.
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Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
I really don't get why you targeted Zindabad, Scarbo. I saw only 2 reasonable NK's lad Night and that was Kami or me.
Zindabad's power was clearly one-shot. Why watch him? (I wish I could ask Kami and his doc-redirect the same. He shouldn't have redirected)
I watched zindabad last night - yes, KK gave me Unexpected Results. Literally every surviving Boros targeted zindabad. Given the claims and redirection, that means they either decided to target KA or zindabad, either way super towny behavior. That you're preemptively trying to say scum would do that to appear towny/dodging what should have been a very straightforward question/discrediting the obvious fact that zinda is town gives me great pleasure to
Unvote
Vote: Axelrod
You are making no sense at all. Completely aside from this being a terrible choice for you to have made, the fact that the Boros people were redirected to KA last night saying precisely nothing about who they may or may not have actually been trying to target. What are you even arguing? I'm not even trying to cast suspicions on Boros people. They are at about the bottom of places to look today. But I'm not "clearing" them just because they are Boros. There are, in fact, ways for one or the other to be scum. Which I pointed out because you asked. How did I "dodge" this question? I gave as complete an answer as I could, letting you know exactly how I was thinking.
And Zinda is not "obvious" Town either. Again, if you are just saying this because of his ability (which, I don't know exactly what it was and I can't remember if he precisely claimed it, but looked like some kind of unilateral lynch ability), then you are being foolish. If you think he's obviously Town for some other reason, then okay, I guess. Everyone's got a right to their opinion.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I really don't get why you targeted Zindabad, Scarbo. I saw only 2 reasonable NK's lad Night and that was Kami or me.
Zindabad's power was clearly one-shot. Why watch him? (I wish I could ask Kami and his doc-redirect the same. He shouldn't have redirected)
If there's scum in Simic there's no way in hell you'd be the NK. Surely you see that.
Aside from the obvious reason for watching zindabad, I wanted to see if any Boros would battalion him. Clearly KA would have been a better watch target in hindsight, but I didn't think there was any way scum would be stupid enough to try to kill KA with the high probability and indeed the case that he'd be likely battalioned.
@Axel: I was under the impression that KA's redirect worked by redirecting from KA to KA's choice, not overriding their choices, as is apparently the case. And I just realized you're Orzhov.
We are probably the most powerful PR still in the game Scarbo. Surely they would like to harm us.
Do you think the fact we're all not killed last Night points to there being scum among us?
All right, looking closer at the Cythare lynch from D1. This one is a bit complicated, as I recall the votes went back and forth quite a bit. But ultimately, these were the lynching votes:
Vote 3: ZDS in #1053. He was scum. 3rd person on wagon = Scum theory confirmed! This post is worth looking at for other reasons as well (as are all ZDS posts). He gives a list of three people he would be okay lynching: Cythare, Sir Karn (Seppel) and Killjoy. We know the first two were Town. Intuition and experience tell me that when scum make out lists like this they usually include one of their own in an effort to maintain credibility. The fact his reasoning on Killjoy is qualified ("mostly for lack of content") could be viewed as a subtle way of putting him at the bottom of the list of preferences. Just noting this for later.
Vote 4: Huntzilla in #1076. This vote isn't the greatest. It's kind of a lot of "woe is me." He's "fine" with a Cythare lynch, while also insisting that not getting a flip would lead us down the "primrose path." He also complains that a lot of the day has been over his head with long quote-posts. The fact he was a replacement complicates it, because it definitely is hard to replace into a game like this, so nothing here is definitive, but it's not a positive.
Note: 7Hawk77 also voted Cythare in #1054, which was right after ZDS's vote, for the reason: "We need to make something happen and fast." He goes on to unvote shortly afterwards, however, in favor of Atog who will give us a flip. This is further points for 7Hawk77 if he needed any further points. A scum would not be incentivized to make that kind of switch.
Vote 5: Killjoy in #1083. For NO stated reason, except what appears to be approaching deadline? Killjoy was voting for KA, but KA claimed and here Killjoy unvotes KA because "that claim would be so over-powered on scum" and jumps to Cythare, as I said, for no stated reason. He mentions the competing wagon - Atog - and seems to be explaining that he can't vote Atog yet because of the Gruul ability and he might be accidentally lynching Atog if he voted him. He says he's going to come back and check in before the deadline, but that doesn't happen. (I haven't actually checked how soon the lynch occurred after this vote). This is a further strike against Killjoy from where I'm sitting.
Vote 6: Atog in #1118. "Yeah, fine." Seriously, that's it. This is just a self-preservation/anyone-but-me vote, and it's not good. Possible qualifier if Atog has previously indicated suspicion of Cythare, which I have not checked.
Vote 7: Sepiriel in #1119. Again, no stated reason beyond what appears to be bandwaggoning at deadline. So, not great. Could be qualified if Sep. has previously indicated suspicion of Cythare. I will note however, that in #1108, just a few posts before, Sep. was voting Atog and saying if people wanted Cythare dead it ought to be by vigging, not a lynch.
Now, caveat to this, is that Az is (unfortunately) seriously browbeating the thread right now. He is screaming in ALL CAPS that we should be lynching Cythare. He's really pushing it. That, unfortunately, had results, and muddies the significance of some of these late votes. It gives Sep. the ability to say, truthfully, that he was pressured to make this vote, so it's harder to get a true read.
Vote 8: Zindabad in #1128. He just appears to be choosing between the two competing wagons, decides he doesn't want to vote Atog because AE is voting Atog, so defaults to Cythare without any other stated reasoning. Not great. To be fair here, I scrolled down and Zinda did put Cythare at the bottom of his scum list in an earlier post, so this vote cannot be said to have come out of left field. His vote after that scum-reads post wasn't for Cythare, however, but for KA. And he said he wouldn't choose Cythare if he had the choice. Frankly I don't understand the late KA vote, and why he wasn't voting Cythare earlier given his scum-list.
So, that's the wagon. A complete review would go on to look at everyone NOT on the wagon, but I don't have time for that atm. The worst votes here are (1) Killjoy, (2) Atog (3) Huntzilla (4) Zindabad.
Do some more later.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
(technically, this was not Vote #1. That was Koolkoal. He did not claim his result initially, and was not getting a lot of traction with his vote, however, so he claimed not very long after, and unvoted when ZDS got run up so quickly to avoid a quick-lynch, and so was not on the final lynch tally.)
KoolKoal claims Cop with "Not Town" result on ZDS in #1313. Unfortunately, that makes almost all the remaining votes not especially significant, so I'm not going to do a Vote-by-Vote for this. The day was short, however, so I'm just going to read the whole thing from that point on, and pick out anything that seems of interest.
This post, from Vishamon has been noted before. He is the only person who has chimed in after the claim who doesn't immediately vote for ZDS, but instead appears to be willing to give ZDS the opportunity to prove to him that ZDS is a "pro-Town" Neutral. Aside from being a weird statement to make, apparently Vish has recently played in a game where a scum false-claimed to be a pro-Town neutral, and subsequently won the game with that claim. Why Vish would be prepared to give ZDS this kind of out boggles the mind.
In #1340 Koolkoal expresses the opinion based on his re-read of ZDS that Zindabad and Scarbo are unlikely to be scum with ZDS based on interactions. I haven't checked these personally, but I'm noting because KK supposedly did.
In #1343 Rhand agrees with KK's assessment as to Zindabad, but says it isn't as clear-cut for Scarbo. I note this just because it shows that Rhand was at least doing follow-up and actual reading, which is positive for him.
Huntzilla's interaction is a bit weird. When he checks in HERE after the claim, ZDS has already been run up. Hunt says he'd really like to vote ZDS and asks if all we are waiting for is the claim. There's nothing super-wrong with this, it's the next part that's interesting.
Hunt checks in again at #1355, and still does not vote. Here he's asking the same question someone else has asked about confirmation of the Boros ability.
ZDS self votes in #1366.
Huntzilla then immediately votes ZDS in #1357. Saying scum looks "likely". This confuses me. Why hammer now? What changed? What about that question that was out there to the Boros people that you just said we should get confirmed? ZDS self-voting and not claiming certainly did virtually confirm him as scum (more that just "likely"), but you're just doing what he wants now. This is suspicious to me.
So, end of the day, and there's not a lot, but I would say both Vishamon and Huntzilla come off as worse looking following KK's claim and the lynch. Rhand a little better. Everyone else just kind of null.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
This is going to be the last bit I can do today. This is up to where Seppel gets lynched:
Vote 1: Rhand in #1445: This is, I believe, consistent with his posting of the day before where he wanted to lynch Seppel (and the feeling was mutual, I should add), and he doesn't really say anything here about why he wants Seppel lynched further, except as part of POA.
Question to Rhand: you made a remark here about feeling that there should be a Guildmaster scum, and therefore it being Zindabad. Do you not still feel this way strictly because of Zindabad's ability?
Vote 2: Scarbo at #1457. He believes Seppel is the scum in Orzhov, not Taredas. I don't know what, if anything, Scarbo has been saying about Seppel prior to this, so it might be consistent and it might not be. I scrolled back a few pages of his posts and didn't see a direct remark about Seppel. I did see that Scarbo tends to jump his vote around a lot.
Vote 3: Zindabad in #1464. Says what he's seeing from Seppel in terms of posting 1-liners and acting clueless is "pure" Seppel-scum play. Zindabad previously indicated he thought Seppel was scum in #1450, so it's not inconsistent. But he didn't actually give any reasons for this believe in #1450. He just said it. His last remark about the slot appears to have been the day before when he listed Seppel's predecessor, Sir Karn, as "Neutral." So, this isn't actually that much.
Vote 4: Atog in...Okay, so there's no vote here. And all the rest of the votes (Huntzilla, Killjoy) are the Gruul people. So, I guess that was Zindabad's ability, to force all the Gruul people to vote for whoever he wanted, which lynched because of the multiplier thing.
I re-note for posterity that it was Atog who dug up the thing on Vishamon in post #1470, which actually makes me feel better about him.
Killjoy expressed support for Seppel lynch without voting in #1496.
Zindabad does his "Attack Seppel" ability in #1498, after Seppel actually self-voted one post earlier, and asked to get lynched. So, hard to really criticize Zindabad for that. Seppel made it too easy for Zinda if Zinda is actually scum.
So, not all that much here. No one really looks any better except Atog for unrelated reasons. Killjoy still not looking good.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Days have all ended while I've been at work or asleep
So?
You know that's kind of irrelevant to what we're talking about. You could have been voting a long, long time before the actual end of the day.
Well, if you were to investigate when I had my vote on players, it often was long before the end of the day, and I often unvoted or stated that I was reserving my vote to keep mafia from quick hammering (in other words, if you read my posts, you can see which of the lynches I supported, and would have voted for had I not been afk after claims/whatever)
1. 77Hawk7
Few interactions. But ZDS does try a bit to downplay Hawk. Looks good for Hawk.
The way he says “Hawk should share his thoughts that are not directly related to AI's PBPA, and comment on / defend himself from the PBPA only when it's done. “ looks very alike to what he said about Sepiriel earlier. (Hawk and Sepiriel probably same alignment)
2. Archmage Eternal
Shallow interactions, but tone is different from the shallow interactions with Axel.
4. Atogaholic**
Doesn't mention him at all until it seems like Atog / Vishamon will be the D1 lynch choices. He waffles on the read but does vote him, and then out of nowhere starts attacking him.
Post #237: look at the difference between him adressing Scarbo and Atog and all other people in that post. Looks bad for Atog and Scarbo
I dislike this sentence that ZDS bolded: “I am against Atog claiming until he answers the questions he's been asked. “ Looks like he thinks the wagon might dissolve and doesn't want to risk a claim preventing that. Shortly after he unvotes.
Later on he posts “I'm down for an Atog claim, and will vote him if able. I have waited long enough for a proper answer to the "lynch bait" thing (that may never come). “ which makes Atog look a little better.
But after all his pushes on Atog, he's suddenly no longer interested in the lynch when the AI wagon picks up. And later on he fights the Atog lynch.
5. Axelrod
very shallow interactions and very few
9. Huntzilla hansanator*
ZDS defends Hansanator multiple times in early game. Not as clearly white knighting as he did with Sepi, but still looks ok for Hunt.
13. Scarbo
ZDS makes a point about not having a conclusive read on Scarbo
Post #237: look at the difference between him adressing Scarbo and Atog and all other people in that post. Looks bad for Atog and Scarbo.
He talks a bit with Scarbo about the proposal to lynch Obzedat
ZDS votes Scarbo for this reason: “Scarbo's PBPA is barely conclusive in the Atog half and full of conspiracy theories in the Zindabad half. Apparently Zindabad knows Azrael and AI are town because he didn't like it when AI called the Gruul ability anti-town, and Hansanator and I are his scumbuddies because he talked to us directly. The timing is opportunistic as well. This might be the single scummiest post in the game so far.” I'm not sure what to think of this.
This looks bad for Scarbo: “I will support wagons on Scarbo, Sir Karn (though I don't have high expectations of a wagon actually happening on either of these two toDay), KoolKoal (because /barn Proph) and AI.”: all others flipped town.
14. Sepiriel
ZDS likes Sepiriel and defends him (seems like a white knighting of a townie)
16. Killjoy Snurfy8*
No interactions with Snurfy (but Snurfy hardly posted)
Tells KJ what he needs to look for when reading the game. Looks very much like coaching the replacement buddy.
18. Vishamon
Interactions at first very shallow.
The way ZDS pushed the Atog lynch when he thought it was Atog vs Vish on D1, I believe that if atog flips town, Vish is scum for sure. (but looking at Atog interactions, I think he chose the bus and it's the other way around)
20. zindabad*
ZDS defends himself against what looks like a real attack from Zindabad.
When ZDS adresses Zindabad, it sounds very alike to when he adressed known town players.
Zindabad grills ZDS thoroughly.
This sentence looks very bad for Zindabad: “I read Zindabad as null/town-by-default, but he will need to seriously **** up before I vote him.”
General conclusion:
Looking good: Hawk - AE - Sepiriel
Looking good and bad: Vishamon (good but bad if Atog town) - Zindabad - Huntzilla
Looking bad: Atog - Axelrod - Scarbo - KJ
Meh. Too many bad looking people. And the ones looking good I already thought were town.
Question to Rhand: you made a remark here about feeling that there should be a Guildmaster scum, and therefore it being Zindabad. Do you not still feel this way strictly because of Zindabad's ability?
I've said this before: Zindabad still makes me uneasy. Both because of his behavior and of the fact that the Dimir guildmaster is still hiding somewhere. His ability is the main reason I'm leaving him alone.
However, there is another claim out there that can be the cover up for the guildmaster.
I'm not sure this is even worth getting into, but you have AE listed as "Looking Good" in this review of ZDS interactions and me listed as "Looking Bad", when the sum total of your remarks for both of us are "shallow interactions". But the "tone" is apparently different to you. What exactly is this "tone" of which you speak? I'm curious why you didn't explain it any better, given that it was apparently significant enough to result in completely opposite reads.
I like Atog better than Killjoy at this point. Neither are great, but Atog did make a nice point against Vishamon (who I also don't like) which is not the kind of point you'd typically see a scum making. Killjoy hasn't done anything.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I looked again to explain better what I sensed. He asks questions or tells players to do something all the time. But when talking to you, he never does. He explains a stance or something and that's it.
Next up on my todo is rereading all the players that are not on my looking good list.
Meanwhile I would love to see Atog's claim. Or maybe a mass role claim.
Day 2 ZDS Lynch:
Huntzilla's interaction is a bit weird. When he checks in HERE after the claim, ZDS has already been run up. Hunt says he'd really like to vote ZDS and asks if all we are waiting for is the claim. There's nothing super-wrong with this, it's the next part that's interesting.
Hunt checks in again at #1355, and still does not vote. Here he's asking the same question someone else has asked about confirmation of the Boros ability.
ZDS self votes in #1366.
Huntzilla then immediately votes ZDS in #1357. Saying scum looks "likely". This confuses me. Why hammer now? What changed? What about that question that was out there to the Boros people that you just said we should get confirmed? ZDS self-voting and not claiming certainly did virtually confirm him as scum (more that just "likely"), but you're just doing what he wants now. This is suspicious to me.
So, end of the day, and there's not a lot, but I would say both Vishamon and Huntzilla come off as worse looking following KK's claim and the lynch. Rhand a little better. Everyone else just kind of null.
Wait a darn second...
You are telling me that I am suspicious for voting/hammering someone on a self vote!? That is a basic scum tell. Mafia 101 is lynch a self vote... What changed is the fact that the scum gave up fighting the lynch and voted himself... But I am not supposed to hammer him?
By the way I forgot to include Zindabad on the list of clans I made...
But he is obviously Gruul and I find him townie...
Unvote
Vote Atog
I am in need of a flip soon. The more this drags out the less interested in this game I become.
I am fine with a mass role claim Rhand. The problem is I don't have much to contribute to the role claim, so my vote shouldn't matter towards the tally.
I am in need of a flip soon. The more this drags out the less interested in this game I become.
So true sadly.
I still prefer scarbo getting lynched today (im pretty sure im still voting him, unless i thought i voted but didnt, once i see the votecount ill know for sure.)
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Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
All right, looking closer at the Cythare lynch from D1. This one is a bit complicated, as I recall the votes went back and forth quite a bit. But ultimately, these were the lynching votes:
So, that's the wagon. A complete review would go on to look at everyone NOT on the wagon, but I don't have time for that atm. The worst votes here are (1) Killjoy, (2) Atog (3) Huntzilla (4) Zindabad.
Do some more later.
Sooooo.... All the Gruul? Who at that point of the game were basically voting as a team, along with Az, our town leader at that moment? Those are the "worst votes?"
Wait a darn second...
You are telling me that I am suspicious for voting/hammering someone on a self vote!? That is a basic scum tell. Mafia 101 is lynch a self vote... What changed is the fact that the scum gave up fighting the lynch and voted himself... But I am not supposed to hammer him?
huh...
Dude, ZDS was already pegged by a Cop. You knew that. You already said you wanted to vote him. You didn't need another "scum tell" to make your decision. That lynch was already happening. People were just waiting for questions to be answered - like, you know, the one you yourself had just asked. Are you claiming that you hammered because you really weren't sure he was scum before he self-voted, but afterwards, then you were?
ZDS self vote was just his attempt to end the day early so the Town couldn't get any more out of it. You helped him.
All right, looking closer at the Cythare lynch from D1. This one is a bit complicated, as I recall the votes went back and forth quite a bit. But ultimately, these were the lynching votes:
So, that's the wagon. A complete review would go on to look at everyone NOT on the wagon, but I don't have time for that atm. The worst votes here are (1) Killjoy, (2) Atog (3) Huntzilla (4) Zindabad.
Do some more later.
Sooooo.... All the Gruul? Who at that point of the game were basically voting as a team, along with Az, our town leader at that moment? Those are the "worst votes?"
I wasn't even paying attention to what guilds people were when I wrote that. Instead of saying this, which sounds like you are trying to discredit the analysis by dismissing it out of hand, how about you actually say what you disagree with? Go ahead, you won't hurt my feelings. I said exactly what I didn't like about those particular votes. I made it easy for you.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Modgaming teaches us there should be 2 scum left with one in Orzhov (to make DCIII's ability work) and one in either Simic (would make KK's ability more interesting, but Taredas was pushing that) or Gruul.
Remaining scum should be Axelrod (with a tiny chance of Sepiriel) + 1 of {Scarbo; Vishamon; Huntzilla; Atogaholic; Zindabad; KillJoy}
Order of likelyhood according to my current reads and ZDS interactions:
Simic: Vishamon > Scarbo.
Scarbo: too active to be scum. Scum can ride this one out being more silent as we have so many active lurkers and people are well able to talk themselves into a mislynch. Scarbo chose the same target last Night as Kami did. And he has the correct results, so we know that is what he did. KK read him as town.
Vishamon: ZDS pushed the Atog wagon hard when it was Atog vs Vishamon. That might have been a chainsaw. Vishamon's early game stinks: he says I am tunneling Sepiriel but then votes Sepiriel. And then he goes all bonkers with voting Lazav and not really interacting with anyone. Then he throws some mud at AI and Atog but without real body to it. There's a lot of talk about other games and not a lot about this game. He plays assistant mod too. His reads are most often based on 'I dislike this but can't explain why'. Now that I reread him, I really dislike him.
Gruul: Huntzilla > KillJoy > Atogaholic > Zindabad
Huntzilla: I've reread Huntzilla (and Hansanator, but that yielded nothing) and think he might be scum. His read on KillJoy goes from a strong town meta-read to scum only because Atog claimed a planeswalker and Hunt wanted to lynch Gruul yesterDay. That is awful.
Atogaholic: I had an early scumread on him but ZDS defending him the way he did makes me now think that they're not buddies. Also ZDS really pushed Atog pretty hard when it was Atog vs Vishamon. My first idea was that ZDS chose the bus, but now I don't think he would've done that when he defended him strongly earlier. Chainsaw is a lot more likely. Post #35 points to town: we know now that scum had Boros and Atog sounds for real there. Atog OMGUS'ed Taredas pretty hard. I don't think he's scum with him. He could've just as easily voted me there. He was too sure about AI and Cythare being scum. He didn't keep any doors open on being wrong. And he doesn't fit with Axelrod on a scumteam with their interactions.
KillJoy: Snurfy's posts smelled of scum. But I might be misreading newb for scum there. KJ's catchup isn't very good. His assumption on Batallion might mean he's town: it's completely wrong. Also the way he tried to figure out DCIII is typical for KJ's townplay. I think. I can't remember ever having seen his scumplay to compare with though.
Zindabad: Purely for mechanical reasons I put Zindabad last. He made huge posts, attacking players including Taredas and ZDS. I will never stop feeling uneasy about Zindabad, but he's lowest priority because of proven role, interactions with ZDS and Taredas and looking like he's trying to solve the game.
vote Vishamon
If we are indeed looking for 2 more scum, then we have 3 mislynches left. But at this point I'm sold that we win if we lynch Vishamon, Huntzilla and Axelrod. (and skip Hunt if Vish flips town)
I would love to see Taredas's flip to do more interaction analysis.
Wait a darn second...
You are telling me that I am suspicious for voting/hammering someone on a self vote!? That is a basic scum tell. Mafia 101 is lynch a self vote... What changed is the fact that the scum gave up fighting the lynch and voted himself... But I am not supposed to hammer him?
huh...
Dude, ZDS was already pegged by a Cop. You knew that. You already said you wanted to vote him. You didn't need another "scum tell" to make your decision. That lynch was already happening. People were just waiting for questions to be answered - like, you know, the one you yourself had just asked. Are you claiming that you hammered because you really weren't sure he was scum before he self-voted, but afterwards, then you were?
ZDS self vote was just his attempt to end the day early so the Town couldn't get any more out of it. You helped him.
I see what you are saying now. You are correct, that was a dumb move on my part. I got excited about ending the day and didn't think about any of the questions any longer once I saw the self hammer. That is my bad.
All right, looking closer at the Cythare lynch from D1. This one is a bit complicated, as I recall the votes went back and forth quite a bit. But ultimately, these were the lynching votes:
So, that's the wagon. A complete review would go on to look at everyone NOT on the wagon, but I don't have time for that atm. The worst votes here are (1) Killjoy, (2) Atog (3) Huntzilla (4) Zindabad.
Do some more later.
Sooooo.... All the Gruul? Who at that point of the game were basically voting as a team, along with Az, our town leader at that moment? Those are the "worst votes?"
I wasn't even paying attention to what guilds people were when I wrote that. Instead of saying this, which sounds like you are trying to discredit the analysis by dismissing it out of hand, how about you actually say what you disagree with? Go ahead, you won't hurt my feelings. I said exactly what I didn't like about those particular votes. I made it easy for you. [/quote] It is just strange that you found almost the entire guild to be the "worst votes" on the wagon. I get that you weren't even "paying attention to that" but isn't it worth mentioning? The only thing I disagree with when you look at the votes without the context of the guilds is that you lose the mechanic that Gruul is bestowed. It was the first lynch of the day, and a way of confirming all of us as Gruul would be for all of us to be on the same wagon. The more Gruul that piled onto that lynch, the more likely the next Gruul would be to do the same. So the later Gruul are going to look worse and worse, as they are more likely to just be voting their clan lines than voting someone they REALLY want to, especially with how long that Day went on.
I think this vote analysis is your way of trying to discredit (read more like distract) the fact that I named you scummy regardless in my post #1613. I am guessing I pegged you and your scum buddies in that post, and you are slowly trying to discredit me so no one looks at that any longer.
I find Atog and vish to be a dichotomy in my mind, if Vish is scum then Atog is town same for the opposite. However i have also problems seeing you and atog as buddies but that is more because i cant outright recall anything to really seem like a buddy tell either way.
As of right now the Vish catch is interesting (wasnt it axel who made the catch? if so it could be bussing most likely), and Atog has pretty much cleared himself in a way to a neutral position in my mind.
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Quote from »
Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
If we are indeed looking for 2 more scum, then we have 3 mislynches left. But at this point I'm sold that we win if we lynch Vishamon, Huntzilla and Axelrod. (and skip Hunt if Vish flips town)
YesterDay I was planning on doing vote count analysis, but the day ended before I completely finished. Since it looks like Axelrod had the same idea I'll just cut to the most interesting part:
Day One Final Vote Count
Atogaholic (9): Cythare, Axelrod, Scarbo, KamikazeArchon, Rhand, dkingsland967, Obzedat, 7hawk77, Archmage Eternal
KamikazeArchon (1): Taredas
Prophylaxis (1): Sir Karn
Cythare (11): Prophylaxis, Azrael, ZeDorkSlipeur, Huntzilla, Killjoy, Atogaholic, Sepiriel, Zindabad
Not Voting (2): Koolkoal, Vishamon
Sky blue is used here to indicate a player cleared through mechanics. I am still certain that Vishamon is scum so the other two simic fall into this category.
Take a look at my wagon, with a size of 9 there's no way a member of the scum team isn't on it. Since everyone else on the wagon has pretty much been PoE'd out of suspicion, it looks like axelrod is very likely to be scum.
Also note that his vote is positioned near the front of my wagon, similar to ZDS's vote on cythare.
Let's lynch either Axelrod or Vishamon today and the other tomorrow.
I trgeted Kami. Redirected to Zindabad.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
Outdated Mafia Stats
It is...very unlikely...the set up is going to be able to be gamed in this way. There's going to be some kind of monkeywrench/curveball that will bite us if we try to lynch based on Guilds. Possibly one of those (oh so common) curveballs that leads players to complain afterwards how the set up was busted/unfair/slanted. Seems like that almost always happens.
This is why what I'm going to be doing is going to just ignore the Guilds. At least right now. I obviously won't ignore it completely, but everyone should look at the behaviors first, and then the mechanic stuff.
Well, maybe I do. And if the question suggests what it seems to suggest, then I'd give the remaining Boros even more of the benefit of the doubt than what I'm already giving them. I'll note that that wouldn't be based on just their Guild though, but behavior.
Is it Atog?
Do I have to actually do anything else today?
I cannot answer questions regarding whether the Obzedat vote requires a majority vote to go through or not, the only thing i know is that from how it was said to me the one actually voting there is DCIII.
It's not a simple question, it's a silly question. But to state the obvious: a scum Boros would almost certainly not target KA with his Battalion ability on a Night when the Mafia were also planning on trying to kill KA. Like, duh. The only way they might even conceivably try to do so would be if they decided to take a rather huge risk/gamble that KA would be using his redirect ability to move him to someone else, and so the scum wouldn't actually be at risk of killing himself. In short, that almost certainly would not happen.
On the other hand, if the scum were not planning on killing KA, then, sure, a scum might choose to Battalion KA in an effort to keep up Townie appearances. That seemed obvious too.
This is why at first I didn't understand the question. Plus, initially it sounded like you were just taking the Boros people's word for it as to who they claimed to have targeted last night, and I was like, but, they could claim to have targeted anyone? How could we know for certain if they were telling the truth?
Then I realized there was, in fact, a way we could know this, hence the second part of the post.
So?
You know that's kind of irrelevant to what we're talking about. You could have been voting a long, long time before the actual end of the day.
This feels like a complete disconnect from the game events, unless you are trying to imply that you could kill me to get in the council so i can help get taredas out on the open, funny thing there is that that requires that the town loose a vote, with anywhere between 2-3 scum left.
If you want to do this i suggest you do it when have routed at least two more non-orzhov scum then we can remove me so i can get taredas revealed and then you can consider whether Axel should be killed or not (miracles could happen, i mean its possible that two scum are hidden somewhere else outside of Orzhov, i doubt it, im sure it has to be Axel but the point is clear).
I watched zindabad last night - yes, KK gave me Unexpected Results. Literally every surviving Boros targeted zindabad. Given the claims and redirection, that means they either decided to target KA or zindabad, either way super towny behavior. That you're preemptively trying to say scum would do that to appear towny/dodging what should have been a very straightforward question/discrediting the obvious fact that zinda is town gives me great pleasure to
Unvote
Vote: Axelrod
Sepi, you may have been on to something about Taredas being MIA with the lack of his flip.
@megmod: Do prod/replacement procedures remain in place for dead players that may have effects that persist after death? Should I PM you about this instead?
@Scarbo: it's hard to tell if you are joking from that post alone, your irony/cynicism/sarcasm wasn't very clear so i couldn't tell otherwise.
Also are you suggesting that Taredas behavior and lack of a body turning up would be an indicator of Townie Taredas? because the way i see it the longer it takes in RL to have a body appear the more we should consider Taredas as scum, specially since his MO this game has been to pop up early at the start of a Day make a neutral post then disappear until prod time. If he is town with this MO he should be on early on to vote himself out of the Council, but as scum he has no reason to if anything it will be advantgeous to the scum to have Taredas remain silent until we lynch axel, and again im telling you guys the risk of having scum control obzedat is very high, we Do NOT want to reach standard lylo only to have scum obzedat force a speed lynch.
Given what you've shared about Obzedat and Orzhov flips, though, my one-scum-per-guild hypothesis falls apart. It makes the most sense for town Orzhov to dismiss themselves from Obzedat ASAP to provide us with flips, so with DCIII's warning that scum could vote him out of Obzedat, such a scenario would really only be feasible if there were more than one Orzhov scum.
Zindabad's power was clearly one-shot. Why watch him? (I wish I could ask Kami and his doc-redirect the same. He shouldn't have redirected)
You are making no sense at all. Completely aside from this being a terrible choice for you to have made, the fact that the Boros people were redirected to KA last night saying precisely nothing about who they may or may not have actually been trying to target. What are you even arguing? I'm not even trying to cast suspicions on Boros people. They are at about the bottom of places to look today. But I'm not "clearing" them just because they are Boros. There are, in fact, ways for one or the other to be scum. Which I pointed out because you asked. How did I "dodge" this question? I gave as complete an answer as I could, letting you know exactly how I was thinking.
And Zinda is not "obvious" Town either. Again, if you are just saying this because of his ability (which, I don't know exactly what it was and I can't remember if he precisely claimed it, but looked like some kind of unilateral lynch ability), then you are being foolish. If you think he's obviously Town for some other reason, then okay, I guess. Everyone's got a right to their opinion.
If there's scum in Simic there's no way in hell you'd be the NK. Surely you see that.
Aside from the obvious reason for watching zindabad, I wanted to see if any Boros would battalion him. Clearly KA would have been a better watch target in hindsight, but I didn't think there was any way scum would be stupid enough to try to kill KA with the high probability and indeed the case that he'd be likely battalioned.
@Axel: I was under the impression that KA's redirect worked by redirecting from KA to KA's choice, not overriding their choices, as is apparently the case. And I just realized you're Orzhov.
Unvote
Vote: Atogaholic
Do you think the fact we're all not killed last Night points to there being scum among us?
Vote 1: Prop in #924. He was Town.
Vote 2: Az in #1035. Also Town.
Vote 3: ZDS in #1053. He was scum. 3rd person on wagon = Scum theory confirmed! This post is worth looking at for other reasons as well (as are all ZDS posts). He gives a list of three people he would be okay lynching: Cythare, Sir Karn (Seppel) and Killjoy. We know the first two were Town. Intuition and experience tell me that when scum make out lists like this they usually include one of their own in an effort to maintain credibility. The fact his reasoning on Killjoy is qualified ("mostly for lack of content") could be viewed as a subtle way of putting him at the bottom of the list of preferences. Just noting this for later.
Vote 4: Huntzilla in #1076. This vote isn't the greatest. It's kind of a lot of "woe is me." He's "fine" with a Cythare lynch, while also insisting that not getting a flip would lead us down the "primrose path." He also complains that a lot of the day has been over his head with long quote-posts. The fact he was a replacement complicates it, because it definitely is hard to replace into a game like this, so nothing here is definitive, but it's not a positive.
Note: 7Hawk77 also voted Cythare in #1054, which was right after ZDS's vote, for the reason: "We need to make something happen and fast." He goes on to unvote shortly afterwards, however, in favor of Atog who will give us a flip. This is further points for 7Hawk77 if he needed any further points. A scum would not be incentivized to make that kind of switch.
Vote 5: Killjoy in #1083. For NO stated reason, except what appears to be approaching deadline? Killjoy was voting for KA, but KA claimed and here Killjoy unvotes KA because "that claim would be so over-powered on scum" and jumps to Cythare, as I said, for no stated reason. He mentions the competing wagon - Atog - and seems to be explaining that he can't vote Atog yet because of the Gruul ability and he might be accidentally lynching Atog if he voted him. He says he's going to come back and check in before the deadline, but that doesn't happen. (I haven't actually checked how soon the lynch occurred after this vote). This is a further strike against Killjoy from where I'm sitting.
Vote 6: Atog in #1118. "Yeah, fine." Seriously, that's it. This is just a self-preservation/anyone-but-me vote, and it's not good. Possible qualifier if Atog has previously indicated suspicion of Cythare, which I have not checked.
Vote 7: Sepiriel in #1119. Again, no stated reason beyond what appears to be bandwaggoning at deadline. So, not great. Could be qualified if Sep. has previously indicated suspicion of Cythare. I will note however, that in #1108, just a few posts before, Sep. was voting Atog and saying if people wanted Cythare dead it ought to be by vigging, not a lynch.
Now, caveat to this, is that Az is (unfortunately) seriously browbeating the thread right now. He is screaming in ALL CAPS that we should be lynching Cythare. He's really pushing it. That, unfortunately, had results, and muddies the significance of some of these late votes. It gives Sep. the ability to say, truthfully, that he was pressured to make this vote, so it's harder to get a true read.
Vote 8: Zindabad in #1128. He just appears to be choosing between the two competing wagons, decides he doesn't want to vote Atog because AE is voting Atog, so defaults to Cythare without any other stated reasoning. Not great. To be fair here, I scrolled down and Zinda did put Cythare at the bottom of his scum list in an earlier post, so this vote cannot be said to have come out of left field. His vote after that scum-reads post wasn't for Cythare, however, but for KA. And he said he wouldn't choose Cythare if he had the choice. Frankly I don't understand the late KA vote, and why he wasn't voting Cythare earlier given his scum-list.
So, that's the wagon. A complete review would go on to look at everyone NOT on the wagon, but I don't have time for that atm. The worst votes here are (1) Killjoy, (2) Atog (3) Huntzilla (4) Zindabad.
Do some more later.
Vote 1: Seppel in #1288. Seppel was Town.
(technically, this was not Vote #1. That was Koolkoal. He did not claim his result initially, and was not getting a lot of traction with his vote, however, so he claimed not very long after, and unvoted when ZDS got run up so quickly to avoid a quick-lynch, and so was not on the final lynch tally.)
KoolKoal claims Cop with "Not Town" result on ZDS in #1313. Unfortunately, that makes almost all the remaining votes not especially significant, so I'm not going to do a Vote-by-Vote for this. The day was short, however, so I'm just going to read the whole thing from that point on, and pick out anything that seems of interest.
This post, from Vishamon has been noted before. He is the only person who has chimed in after the claim who doesn't immediately vote for ZDS, but instead appears to be willing to give ZDS the opportunity to prove to him that ZDS is a "pro-Town" Neutral. Aside from being a weird statement to make, apparently Vish has recently played in a game where a scum false-claimed to be a pro-Town neutral, and subsequently won the game with that claim. Why Vish would be prepared to give ZDS this kind of out boggles the mind.
In #1340 Koolkoal expresses the opinion based on his re-read of ZDS that Zindabad and Scarbo are unlikely to be scum with ZDS based on interactions. I haven't checked these personally, but I'm noting because KK supposedly did.
In #1343 Rhand agrees with KK's assessment as to Zindabad, but says it isn't as clear-cut for Scarbo. I note this just because it shows that Rhand was at least doing follow-up and actual reading, which is positive for him.
Huntzilla's interaction is a bit weird. When he checks in HERE after the claim, ZDS has already been run up. Hunt says he'd really like to vote ZDS and asks if all we are waiting for is the claim. There's nothing super-wrong with this, it's the next part that's interesting.
Hunt checks in again at #1355, and still does not vote. Here he's asking the same question someone else has asked about confirmation of the Boros ability.
ZDS self votes in #1366.
Huntzilla then immediately votes ZDS in #1357. Saying scum looks "likely". This confuses me. Why hammer now? What changed? What about that question that was out there to the Boros people that you just said we should get confirmed? ZDS self-voting and not claiming certainly did virtually confirm him as scum (more that just "likely"), but you're just doing what he wants now. This is suspicious to me.
So, end of the day, and there's not a lot, but I would say both Vishamon and Huntzilla come off as worse looking following KK's claim and the lynch. Rhand a little better. Everyone else just kind of null.
Outdated Mafia Stats
Vote 1: Rhand in #1445: This is, I believe, consistent with his posting of the day before where he wanted to lynch Seppel (and the feeling was mutual, I should add), and he doesn't really say anything here about why he wants Seppel lynched further, except as part of POA.
Question to Rhand: you made a remark here about feeling that there should be a Guildmaster scum, and therefore it being Zindabad. Do you not still feel this way strictly because of Zindabad's ability?
Vote 2: Scarbo at #1457. He believes Seppel is the scum in Orzhov, not Taredas. I don't know what, if anything, Scarbo has been saying about Seppel prior to this, so it might be consistent and it might not be. I scrolled back a few pages of his posts and didn't see a direct remark about Seppel. I did see that Scarbo tends to jump his vote around a lot.
Vote 3: Zindabad in #1464. Says what he's seeing from Seppel in terms of posting 1-liners and acting clueless is "pure" Seppel-scum play. Zindabad previously indicated he thought Seppel was scum in #1450, so it's not inconsistent. But he didn't actually give any reasons for this believe in #1450. He just said it. His last remark about the slot appears to have been the day before when he listed Seppel's predecessor, Sir Karn, as "Neutral." So, this isn't actually that much.
Vote 4: Atog in...Okay, so there's no vote here. And all the rest of the votes (Huntzilla, Killjoy) are the Gruul people. So, I guess that was Zindabad's ability, to force all the Gruul people to vote for whoever he wanted, which lynched because of the multiplier thing.
I re-note for posterity that it was Atog who dug up the thing on Vishamon in post #1470, which actually makes me feel better about him.
Killjoy expressed support for Seppel lynch without voting in #1496.
Zindabad does his "Attack Seppel" ability in #1498, after Seppel actually self-voted one post earlier, and asked to get lynched. So, hard to really criticize Zindabad for that. Seppel made it too easy for Zinda if Zinda is actually scum.
So, not all that much here. No one really looks any better except Atog for unrelated reasons. Killjoy still not looking good.
1. 77Hawk7
Few interactions. But ZDS does try a bit to downplay Hawk. Looks good for Hawk.
The way he says “Hawk should share his thoughts that are not directly related to AI's PBPA, and comment on / defend himself from the PBPA only when it's done. “ looks very alike to what he said about Sepiriel earlier. (Hawk and Sepiriel probably same alignment)
2. Archmage Eternal
Shallow interactions, but tone is different from the shallow interactions with Axel.
4. Atogaholic**
Doesn't mention him at all until it seems like Atog / Vishamon will be the D1 lynch choices. He waffles on the read but does vote him, and then out of nowhere starts attacking him.
Post #237: look at the difference between him adressing Scarbo and Atog and all other people in that post. Looks bad for Atog and Scarbo
I dislike this sentence that ZDS bolded: “I am against Atog claiming until he answers the questions he's been asked. “ Looks like he thinks the wagon might dissolve and doesn't want to risk a claim preventing that. Shortly after he unvotes.
Later on he posts “I'm down for an Atog claim, and will vote him if able. I have waited long enough for a proper answer to the "lynch bait" thing (that may never come). “ which makes Atog look a little better.
But after all his pushes on Atog, he's suddenly no longer interested in the lynch when the AI wagon picks up. And later on he fights the Atog lynch.
5. Axelrod
very shallow interactions and very few
9. Huntzilla hansanator*
ZDS defends Hansanator multiple times in early game. Not as clearly white knighting as he did with Sepi, but still looks ok for Hunt.
13. Scarbo
ZDS makes a point about not having a conclusive read on Scarbo
Post #237: look at the difference between him adressing Scarbo and Atog and all other people in that post. Looks bad for Atog and Scarbo.
He talks a bit with Scarbo about the proposal to lynch Obzedat
ZDS votes Scarbo for this reason: “Scarbo's PBPA is barely conclusive in the Atog half and full of conspiracy theories in the Zindabad half. Apparently Zindabad knows Azrael and AI are town because he didn't like it when AI called the Gruul ability anti-town, and Hansanator and I are his scumbuddies because he talked to us directly. The timing is opportunistic as well. This might be the single scummiest post in the game so far.” I'm not sure what to think of this.
This looks bad for Scarbo: “I will support wagons on Scarbo, Sir Karn (though I don't have high expectations of a wagon actually happening on either of these two toDay), KoolKoal (because /barn Proph) and AI.”: all others flipped town.
14. Sepiriel
ZDS likes Sepiriel and defends him (seems like a white knighting of a townie)
16. Killjoy Snurfy8*
No interactions with Snurfy (but Snurfy hardly posted)
Tells KJ what he needs to look for when reading the game. Looks very much like coaching the replacement buddy.
18. Vishamon
Interactions at first very shallow.
The way ZDS pushed the Atog lynch when he thought it was Atog vs Vish on D1, I believe that if atog flips town, Vish is scum for sure. (but looking at Atog interactions, I think he chose the bus and it's the other way around)
20. zindabad*
ZDS defends himself against what looks like a real attack from Zindabad.
When ZDS adresses Zindabad, it sounds very alike to when he adressed known town players.
Zindabad grills ZDS thoroughly.
This sentence looks very bad for Zindabad: “I read Zindabad as null/town-by-default, but he will need to seriously **** up before I vote him.”
General conclusion:
Looking good: Hawk - AE - Sepiriel
Looking good and bad: Vishamon (good but bad if Atog town) - Zindabad - Huntzilla
Looking bad: Atog - Axelrod - Scarbo - KJ
Meh. Too many bad looking people. And the ones looking good I already thought were town.
I've said this before: Zindabad still makes me uneasy. Both because of his behavior and of the fact that the Dimir guildmaster is still hiding somewhere. His ability is the main reason I'm leaving him alone.
However, there is another claim out there that can be the cover up for the guildmaster.
vote Atog
I like Atog better than Killjoy at this point. Neither are great, but Atog did make a nice point against Vishamon (who I also don't like) which is not the kind of point you'd typically see a scum making. Killjoy hasn't done anything.
Meanwhile I would love to see Atog's claim. Or maybe a mass role claim.
Wait a darn second...
You are telling me that I am suspicious for voting/hammering someone on a self vote!? That is a basic scum tell. Mafia 101 is lynch a self vote... What changed is the fact that the scum gave up fighting the lynch and voted himself... But I am not supposed to hammer him?
huh...
But he is obviously Gruul and I find him townie...
Unvote
Vote Atog
I am in need of a flip soon. The more this drags out the less interested in this game I become.
I am fine with a mass role claim Rhand. The problem is I don't have much to contribute to the role claim, so my vote shouldn't matter towards the tally.
I still prefer scarbo getting lynched today (im pretty sure im still voting him, unless i thought i voted but didnt, once i see the votecount ill know for sure.)
Sooooo.... All the Gruul? Who at that point of the game were basically voting as a team, along with Az, our town leader at that moment? Those are the "worst votes?"
Dude, ZDS was already pegged by a Cop. You knew that. You already said you wanted to vote him. You didn't need another "scum tell" to make your decision. That lynch was already happening. People were just waiting for questions to be answered - like, you know, the one you yourself had just asked. Are you claiming that you hammered because you really weren't sure he was scum before he self-voted, but afterwards, then you were?
ZDS self vote was just his attempt to end the day early so the Town couldn't get any more out of it. You helped him.
I wasn't even paying attention to what guilds people were when I wrote that. Instead of saying this, which sounds like you are trying to discredit the analysis by dismissing it out of hand, how about you actually say what you disagree with? Go ahead, you won't hurt my feelings. I said exactly what I didn't like about those particular votes. I made it easy for you.
Modgaming teaches us there should be 2 scum left with one in Orzhov (to make DCIII's ability work) and one in either Simic (would make KK's ability more interesting, but Taredas was pushing that) or Gruul.
Remaining scum should be Axelrod (with a tiny chance of Sepiriel) + 1 of {Scarbo; Vishamon; Huntzilla; Atogaholic; Zindabad; KillJoy}
Order of likelyhood according to my current reads and ZDS interactions:
Simic: Vishamon > Scarbo.
Scarbo: too active to be scum. Scum can ride this one out being more silent as we have so many active lurkers and people are well able to talk themselves into a mislynch. Scarbo chose the same target last Night as Kami did. And he has the correct results, so we know that is what he did. KK read him as town.
Vishamon: ZDS pushed the Atog wagon hard when it was Atog vs Vishamon. That might have been a chainsaw. Vishamon's early game stinks: he says I am tunneling Sepiriel but then votes Sepiriel. And then he goes all bonkers with voting Lazav and not really interacting with anyone. Then he throws some mud at AI and Atog but without real body to it. There's a lot of talk about other games and not a lot about this game. He plays assistant mod too. His reads are most often based on 'I dislike this but can't explain why'. Now that I reread him, I really dislike him.
Gruul: Huntzilla > KillJoy > Atogaholic > Zindabad
Huntzilla: I've reread Huntzilla (and Hansanator, but that yielded nothing) and think he might be scum. His read on KillJoy goes from a strong town meta-read to scum only because Atog claimed a planeswalker and Hunt wanted to lynch Gruul yesterDay. That is awful.
Atogaholic: I had an early scumread on him but ZDS defending him the way he did makes me now think that they're not buddies. Also ZDS really pushed Atog pretty hard when it was Atog vs Vishamon. My first idea was that ZDS chose the bus, but now I don't think he would've done that when he defended him strongly earlier. Chainsaw is a lot more likely. Post #35 points to town: we know now that scum had Boros and Atog sounds for real there. Atog OMGUS'ed Taredas pretty hard. I don't think he's scum with him. He could've just as easily voted me there. He was too sure about AI and Cythare being scum. He didn't keep any doors open on being wrong. And he doesn't fit with Axelrod on a scumteam with their interactions.
KillJoy: Snurfy's posts smelled of scum. But I might be misreading newb for scum there. KJ's catchup isn't very good. His assumption on Batallion might mean he's town: it's completely wrong. Also the way he tried to figure out DCIII is typical for KJ's townplay. I think. I can't remember ever having seen his scumplay to compare with though.
Zindabad: Purely for mechanical reasons I put Zindabad last. He made huge posts, attacking players including Taredas and ZDS. I will never stop feeling uneasy about Zindabad, but he's lowest priority because of proven role, interactions with ZDS and Taredas and looking like he's trying to solve the game.
vote Vishamon
If we are indeed looking for 2 more scum, then we have 3 mislynches left. But at this point I'm sold that we win if we lynch Vishamon, Huntzilla and Axelrod. (and skip Hunt if Vish flips town)
I would love to see Taredas's flip to do more interaction analysis.
I see what you are saying now. You are correct, that was a dumb move on my part. I got excited about ending the day and didn't think about any of the questions any longer once I saw the self hammer. That is my bad.
I wasn't even paying attention to what guilds people were when I wrote that. Instead of saying this, which sounds like you are trying to discredit the analysis by dismissing it out of hand, how about you actually say what you disagree with? Go ahead, you won't hurt my feelings. I said exactly what I didn't like about those particular votes. I made it easy for you. [/quote] It is just strange that you found almost the entire guild to be the "worst votes" on the wagon. I get that you weren't even "paying attention to that" but isn't it worth mentioning? The only thing I disagree with when you look at the votes without the context of the guilds is that you lose the mechanic that Gruul is bestowed. It was the first lynch of the day, and a way of confirming all of us as Gruul would be for all of us to be on the same wagon. The more Gruul that piled onto that lynch, the more likely the next Gruul would be to do the same. So the later Gruul are going to look worse and worse, as they are more likely to just be voting their clan lines than voting someone they REALLY want to, especially with how long that Day went on.
I think this vote analysis is your way of trying to discredit (read more like distract) the fact that I named you scummy regardless in my post #1613. I am guessing I pegged you and your scum buddies in that post, and you are slowly trying to discredit me so no one looks at that any longer.
As of right now the Vish catch is interesting (wasnt it axel who made the catch? if so it could be bussing most likely), and Atog has pretty much cleared himself in a way to a neutral position in my mind.