I think you're a better wagon than I am.
I don't know who I want to lynch out of you/Vi, but my latest post was a challenge for him to explain his thought process with regards to me and you.
He has an executive summary playstyle, yeah, but now is the time for townies in the unconfirmed block to play as transparently as possible since hiding your hand does nothing and not playing town enough is essentially losing the game. I'm more familiar with him, so I'm starting by questioning him. What are your thoughts on me versus Vi?
Claim: I'm Mrs. Edgar Hylton, a VT (or TV as they call it here) I'm a debutante, had a daughter with a stolen piece of jewelry, and I'm trying to help the investigation.
Here's why lynching me is dumb.
1. We are in lylo.
2. There is a player who claimed Cop who was not shot or roleblocked
3. Yesterday the player made awkward claims to save himself.
4. I am the last living player who questioned said claims and felt the claim was gakky.
It is blatantly a setup here, and it saddens me you all can't spot it. Seriously, I'm scum and me and my buddy were like, "hey, let's kill this poisoning Vig that people suspect or...y'know, the guy claiming cop, what to do...what to do...
Because we were in such a good position versus the town of Vig, Doc, and Gunsmith, yeah?
Also, what is the scum team at that point? A rolecop and...what? What balances that back to the scum side since a rolecop is a wuss scum role versus the Doc/Cop combo? Maybe something strong like...say...a roleblocker, the basic defense unit versus the broken Doc/Cop combo?
That I, as scum, would opt *not* to use on a Cop I wasn't killing?
Me, a player who says the only way I'm ever caught as scum is via Cop effects?
Yeah....
How am I wrong?
Also, I personally think DYH is the buddy, and that I've been right a lot this game. Outside chance for Vi, I suppose, but I can't really see Vi/Voxx...meh, premptive call of Vi as scum if scum have redirecting/obfuscation tech.
The only thing that has me slightly paranoid is the fact that the scum almost certainly have to have a second power role of some kind, and that a redirecting role or something could be a possibility. I was expecting a roleblock to mess with the cop/doc/vig trio town has, but apparently not.
Regardless, I don't feel strongly enough about anyone to override a guilty result on Thor, so he's the lynch.
Hey, guys, just in case any of you are a PR, or Thor claims something believable, here's my defense setup...since I realize it's strange the cop is both alive and unblocked.
That said, let's definitely lynch my guilty result and try to figure out what's going on with the scumteam after a night phase...yes...:halo:
For my own edification more than anything else, what is the likelihood of a redirecting role in a Basic game? My guess, in the evident absence of a Roleblocker, is that Mafia may have a Doctor (with a Role Cop in lieu of Roleblocker).
To restate myself more clearly - I think the chance of a redirecting role existing in this game is negligible (otherwise the Vig would have been redirected, I realized). I want to know how frequently it's seen in Basic games for site acclimitization purposes.
Actually I just noticed we have six alive, not seven. That changes what I've been thinking slightly, but not by enough for it to matter.
---
For Nacho - Cyan is playing my Town game. Either he's Town or I'm outclassed.
You're playing #YOLOville, i.e. showing up once Day 1 with #swag and lurking through the rest. Your vote record Yesterday is literally sheeping me, minus jumping off the desCoures train.
For Cyan's benefit, I have to be either the best scum alive or the worst scum alive to jump off both mislynch trains, particularly to bus Fate on the first one, given that scum are supposed to win mislynches. Actually I think I've been the first to jump off most of the wagons I've been on in this game. Given that I haven't asked for claims, that seems highly counterproductive for a scum player.
I'd also like to point out that llamarble had me (and Cyan) down as solid Town. If there's one other player in this game whose judgment I trust, it's him. Everyone else has managed to trip over themselves by now. I'd like to also point out this stance from the "Town w/reservations" part of Nacho's big reads post, which struck me as strange since he made it.
Quote from "Nacho 460" »
Fate - I like that Fate is generally clicking with some good views, I like that he's finally in the game and making his pushes. I'm not as happy with him as he could be, but I'm happy enough with his play where I don't really think he's scum at the moment.
For Nacho - Cyan is playing my Town game. Either he's Town or I'm outclassed.
Not good enough. I've just gotten done reading every single ISO you've ever made as scum (according to your wiki) and this game looks so far gone from your scumgame that it hurts, actually. Tiny paranoid niggles in the back of my brain say that you might actually be scum but too many moves that you've made this game make absolutely no sense as scum and your scumgame certainly isn't impressive enough to pull this off unless you've made some pretty incredible leap and strides. And yet despite it all, I'm reanalyzing you because it's that time where we can't make mistakes and I am pulling the last minute adjustment game. Cyan looked town Day 1. Day 2 and Day 3 there was a bit of stale townread syndrome going on, so show me why he is so indisputably and incredibly town. Do you trust it more than you trust an innocent gunsmith result?
You're playing #YOLOville, i.e. showing up once Day 1 with #swag and lurking through the rest. Your vote record Yesterday is literally sheeping me, minus jumping off the desCoures train.
My voting record yesterday consists of a small run at Cyouni because I was entertaining a theory of Fate-scum distancing from a partner, a vote on Voxxicus because I had him-scum feelings for the greater part of D1, a jump off Voxxicus and onto dC because Voxxicus + DYH town left my scumlist looking like {dC, Cyouni} with an outside possibility of Thor. This was because of my confidence in Vi/Cyan town which was something that got established far, far earlier.
I'd like to also point out this stance from the "Town w/reservations" part of Nacho's big reads post, which struck me as strange since he made it.
Quote from "Nacho 460" »
Fate - I like that Fate is generally clicking with some good views, I like that he's finally in the game and making his pushes. I'm not as happy with him as he could be, but I'm happy enough with his play where I don't really think he's scum at the moment.
Why on earth would you bring up this sole interaction with Fate? I called out Fate before anyone else in order to point out that his opening was weird (voted him in #188 before anyone was really entertaining Fate as scum). I started sheeping Fate when it looked like he was stepping it up a little bit, I heavily took input from Llamarble about Fate when I was figuring out whether to lynch him or not, I specifically told him that I thought that we were letting Fate off the hook too easily and that the KoL push was bad (keep in mind this is while you are announcing the only two viable wagons are KoL and Thor), announced support for lynching Fate when you voted him. So yes, you can look at a piece of that interaction and go "lol, Fate town" but the interaction as a whole screams something different.
My concerns setupwise have to do with Godfathers everywhere, cop being left alive, no roleblocker anywhere and no evidence of any sort of scum power other than rolecop which can't fight cop/vig/doctor alone. A few setups of basics and normals I looked through:
TMNT MAFIA
Mafia Godfather
Mafia Roleblocker
Mafia Goon
Doctor
Cop
One-Shot Vig
Vanilla x6
Almost equivalent power in town ('cept we got a full vig here instead of a partial one), far more power in scum.
At least one of Godfather/Roleblocker seems to be so common in these things that I'm decently confident in there being a Godfather this game, especially since our current setup looks something like this:
Mafia ???
Mafia Rolecop
Mafia ???
Cop
Vig
Doctor
Vanilla Townie x6
Town power looks closest to TMNT mafia, rolecop is close *enough* to roleblocker, meaning last power role slot is most likely a godfather. And considering I haven't seen any crazy mafia power roles in my skimming of other basics and normals; redirector is to fear but evidence of that is nowhere to be found. Framers also seem pretty are (haven't seen one), so there goes that fear. Additionally, it also makes sense to me to leave the cop alive and kill the Vig if you have a Godfather that can be townread by the cop/JOAT/whatever. Godfather possibilities end up reassuring me about DYH; I see no reason to kill the vig and leave alive the cop unless you are hoping to be investigated, and a Voxxicus investigation on DYH means that objective was already met. Cyan leaving him alive still makes sense, however: Voxxicus makes a rant before the end of the day yesterday telling us to watch out for coasting Cyan, so that might look like a chance that he will be investigated.
In all of this speculation, there's the matter of no Godfather to a Gunsmith. I don't think that's safe speculation; Llamarble was a Poisoner but the doctor could obviously protect against his kills. Voxxicus may be Gunsmith but I still think a Godfather will be able to counter.
Next post will be ISOs; I'm going to go through the game and post isos of the game that I can read through easily and then I'm gonna start reading them. Then I'm gonna be gone for a little while.
Oh gawds, and looking at your examples.
Even if Mafia has a Godfather they are *still* underpowered compared to those other setups if every roleclaim is true this game.
Vote Cyan for reasons that should be obvious by this point.
Seriously, just read his posts this game.
I was going to say 'now Kpaca will have nothing to post this game', but then I realized that he replaced out before the game even started.
You 'like the Thor vote' from DYH... while having both of them as town on your arbitrary list?
Vote: Kami of Lunacy
Vote Kami. I love the idea of a scum getting caught because of their use of post liking. Maybe this will result in game mods not being so anal about people liking posts in game.
Iso's most recent post also reads as scummy to me, he appears to be trying too hard with it.
Nacho's vote on Iso is bad. Like completely miserably awful. A couple of his posts prior to that aren't much better. Other people from MS, is this normal behavior for him? I still think that Iso is scum, but I would probably switch wagons if Iso weren't already at L-2.
Iso's responses are fairly underwhelming for me. I am not particularly convinced that he would try to alter his playstyle for any particular game, and if he were doing so, I would expect him to state as much before being called on for it(which would be inevitable). So ultimately, I think that he is just blowing smoke.
Iso's general demeanor right now seems very similar to what it was in Cyberpunk, as Cyouni noted. I will not be unvoting him.
If I were going to unvote him somehow, it would only be to vote Nacho, whom is managing to sound more like scum with every post. His last post is a great example. He has already somehow 'lost confidence' in a wagon that he was the 5th vote on anyway, and made zero meaningful contribution to. He didn't even analyze or assess the wagon in any relevant way, he just threw down the 5th vote, and is now clearly looking for a way to get away from it(gg guilty conscience).
Iso and Nacho are both thoroughly scummy in my mind, but in Iso's case, I have the benefit of metagame, and I don't think that this is him being town.
That's not why he thinks Vi is scum. Hell if I know the actual reason, but that isn't it.
So you liked his vote on Vi, despite not having any idea what the reason for it is? Are you just going to claim scum soon?
And Iso's 'trying a new playstyle' argument doesn't sound sincere. Mostly because, from what I can tell, he is only trying it for this series of 3 games? Call me skeptical that someone would abandon the playstyle that they love for only a few games. Also, his tone/demeanor, all of the 'I wouldn't do this as scum' stuff just sounds soooo much like Cyberpunk. You can read up on him there, I got him lynched on like Day...1? 2 maybe. It was early enough that you can get the jist of it w/o re-reading the entire game.
@Nacho: You can certainly feel guilty/bad about placing a bus vote on a buddy, especially in a case where A) the vote doesn't make you look any better(such as is the case here) and/or B)the wagon loses steam shortly thereafter, which seems to be happening, to some extent.
Unrelatedly, I really don't get why anyone is voting for Vierne. His? Posts seem town enough to me.
Come on, honestly. Is this really normal behavior for Nacho? His posts are soooo scummy. His behavior thus far has been horrendous. His vote on Iso was bad, his 'indication' toward Vi getting voted was bad(especially given how quickly he recanted it). Now he's voting AF, based on..no actual points, just some logic that is so faulty that I would rather believe it is dishonest.
But at the same time..I still don't want to let Iso off of the hook. Cyouni isn't inspiring any confidence in me either.
Do you ever get the claim and then say 'let's lynch' and then fail to get the needed votes? Seems like it could happen on a contested claim, or is the claim-ee supposed to sense that and tell people to sod off?
This has never happened in the countless(over 100 I think) games I have played on here.
Unrelatedly, I like Thor's demeanor. And separately, I have a town read on him, as well as on Vierne.
Iso's vote on Thor seems like the worst possible vote he could make. I don't know why more MTGS people aren't voting Iso. We all know his town behavior, and this isn't it. And frankly, the arguments he is making are inherently scummy in their own right, regardless of meta.
Especially regarding that series of posts from Fate - it was all rather pointless. It feels like a lot of his stuff has been that way- I can't remember anything specific he's done. Very high noise-to-content ratio based on the number of posts. Is this typical?
I also continue to be unimpressed by Cyan who hasn't done much outside of voting Iso and sniping at Nacho. Posting way less frequently than normal, as well.
It's evident I'm not swaying anyone on Thor at this point.
Unvote, Vote: Cyan
Convince me I'm wrong about you.
What a scummy post. First, you effectively ignored the entire Iso wagon because 'Thor was leading it'. But Thor was never leading it. I made the most relevant point against Iso, and Iso himself acknowledged my behavior against him as town. And you never addressed any other points that anyone else brought up against him, from what I could tell.
Furthermore, you spent a TON of time trying to get a wagon on Thor based essentially on 'I don't like his attitude', despite multiple people(from both MS and MTGS) stating that we think he is overwhelmingly town.
And then when that didn't work out, you moved onto me, based on effectively nothing. I've been 'sniping' at Nacho because his behavior is scummy, but in a way that could just be his playstyle. And from what I've gotten from what other MS people have said regarding him, he acts this way regardless of alignment. So I haven't made a move against him because of that, but this doesn't change the fact that his behavior IS inherently scummy.
Lastly, town DYH doesn't say things like 'convince me that I'm wrong'.
Thor's vote against Iso came before you made that point.
Thor's vote against Iso inspired absolutely no one to go along with it. My vote against Iso(and his nonsense explanations to try and placate me) resulted in more people voting. Thor is not responsible for Iso's wagon. I am, and I say that regardless of Iso's alignment.
And I've ignored the Iso wagon? Have you even been reading the thread? You really need to go back and re-read my posts.
No thanks, how about you summarize it, so that I don't have to read through 14 walls of you and Thor's pointless bickering to try to find 2 lines of you talking about Iso. In the posts of yours that I did read, even the ones where you addressed Iso, you did so with as little effort as possible, and with even less direct involvement in his wagon.
No, I don't like Thor's attitude one bit. I'm not terribly surprised you do, but I suspect you'd find it super-annoying if you were either leading a charge against him (me) or being hounded by him (Iso). But no, that's not the case I had against him. Again, that's been covered multiple times in my posts, but as a reminder - it all stemmed from his reaction during RVS.
His attitude is what it is. He's not going to change it for this game/series. So what can you really do about that?
No, what is "nothing" is effectively what you've contributed to this game. You've sat on the sidelines, sniping at people and letting Thor lead the charge. This is not town Cyan.
This is pretty far from reality. I said what I needed to say about Iso. I voiced my skepticism toward his 'defense'. I had been assuming that he is going to get around to claiming/being forced to do so at some point, because that is how things go. There was no 'letting Thor lead the charge'. He isn't leading any charge, other than to argue with you. And I'm not particularly inclined to read that entire cluster of an argument, because I have a town read on Thor, and because your entire case on him, from what I DID read, is what I already stated.
He does when he's trying to get a rise out of you. Apparently it worked.
Nice try, but no dice. When you A)act like scum and B)particularly don't act like your town-self, you are only ever going to get one reaction out of me, and you know it.
And you cannot deny that this happen, because your response acknowledges exactly that it did. Thanks for making it easy, scum.
DYH and I have a lengthy history with each other. I can't even remember the last time I thought he was scum. But I bet I was right about it. He is absolutely on his backfoot right now, if you don't realize that, this is your problem.
Sometimes, the best thing to do to a person is to tilt them, you know? Though you have largely ruined this effort now anyway. So thanks for that.
There is literally zero chance that I am going to fulfill that request, and you know it. Why even bother asking, except to make me look bad in a way that will never come back to bite you?
Additionally, the manner in which you are 'defending him but not really' is very curious.
@AF: DYH *and* Iso are better candidates for voting than Cyouni.
I find myself inclined to agree with AF here. And in general, Cyounis post just seems like a huge overreaction. It seems like a bad thing that the only people I find scummy(jury is still out on Nacho) are all from MTGS.
With a little research, I suspect I know what Cyan is recalling [a scenario from Redux 2], and that reaction feels genuine and leads me to believe his knee-jerk vote of me is "I-don't-give-a-****" Cyan mode rather than scum-Cyan mode. He's playing completely different from that game or Survival Horror (where he was scum in both).
This coincides nicely with his acceptance of play styles I think he'd otherwise find reprehensible (Thor, Fate), insulting his own "team" (MTGS players), and being inattentive, which is actually most similar to Cyberspace where he was town.
Unvote
@llamarble: No, I don't think Iso is scum. I still think Thor is, but that's a fruitless pursuit since everyone's afraid of the big, bad bully.
I wouldn't say that I 'accept' the playstyles of people from MS. I would prefer a game where people don't act that way. And if they were planning on sticking around here, I would get into it with them. But they're not, so I just force myself to read through it. And when you do read through it, Thor is very clearly town. AF is not as clearly town, but he doesn't appear particularly scummy to me either.
And I wasn't trying to insult my own team, it's just amusing to me that the MSers generally appear more townie. I'm honestly concerned about this, because it is unlikely that every scum is on the MTGS side. And yet, the 3 people that I want to be voting right now are all MTGS folk.
Also, unless everyone hopping on Nacho for bad reasons was also on Cyouni, that should be L-2 methinks.
What bad reasons are you talking about, exactly? I don't care, anymore, if you guys say that this is always how Nacho acts. Every vote that he has cast thus far has been scummy, and his contributions outside of that has been virtually zero.
All four players with useless votes in play are MtgS players.
Just saying.
Do you guys prefer desperation deadline wagons here?
I do too.
Though mostly when I am scum, because it makes it easier for me to crush town.
Just saying.
I think that Kami and Nacho are, by far, the best wagons. But the case against them is effectively just 'lots of content-less posts and sheer bandwagon votes', and somehow you guys don't think that this is indicative of someone being scum.
Do you guys prefer desperation deadline wagons here?
No, but I don't like wagons just for the sake of a wagon, either, and that's what the Iso and Cyouni wagons have both felt like, to me.
I'm sure it's a complete coincidence that both were heavily fueled by MS players.
Or on the Cyouni wagon's case, only fueled by MS players.
When I have an even remotely strong town read on one of five people on a wagon, I'm going to deem it a very bad wagon. Nacho and Fate are both highly likely scum, and them being the 'bulk' in the middle of the wagon bothers me.
Cyouni's claimed VT at L-2, and he'll probably be the lynch due to that, but I think he's probably town at this point. The lack of a counter-wagon push is telling - scum are lurking the day out and letting the VT lynch happen. My scum team guess is still Nacho, Fate and DYH.
Kami still makes my skin crawl, but as I like the support for Nacho, whatever, I'll sort that out later.
"LACK OF COUNTERWAGON MAKES ME UNEASY"
->
"LETS WAGON NACHOTOWN INSTEAD"
MS players may not realize it(judging by KoL's post, their perspective on vanilla claims seems to be different than ours), but on here, when someone claims Vanilla, they generally get lynched. That is why Cyouni claiming Vanilla looks good for Cyouni. He didn't try to make up some claim and hope it works out, he just claimed his real role(though he obviously COULD be Vanilla Mafia) and hoped it would work out. This speaks well for him, IMO.
And if Nacho needs one more vote on him to claim, then someone should put a vote on him. There is no doubting that he deserves it.
@Cyan - ...you know, it actually kind of bothers me now that I think about it that I'm not sure what your opinions actually are on the MafiaScum players in this game. Do tell, please.
I have strong town reads on Vierni and Thor, no real read on llamarble or AF, a somewhat scum read on Kami, and a high scum read on Nacho.
For the sake of completion, on the MTGS side, I have strong town reads on you and Voxx, a slightly town read on Cyouni(based on his claim), and I think that Iso and DYH are both likely to be scum. People that I am currently willing to lynch are: Iso, DYH, Nacho, and Kami.
I actually want to move my vote to Iso right now, based on his last couple of posts. I'm still not seeing any townIso in his posts, or any meaningful town effort in general. And his 'Cyan and DYH are scumbuddies' reads like a 100% bus attempt on DYH, while trying to discredit me at the same time. But I still think Nacho is scum, and I want to get a resolution on his wagon before doing anything else.
I am shockingly impressed by Nacho's last couple of posts. I know that scum can randomly put forth a meaningful effort, but this feels like more than that. The entire thought process/pattern of those posts feels overwhelmingly town to me. Unvote
Pretty sure my vote is going to go back on Iso, just want to check on some things.
The original question was "Does Iso know that you are more interested in people who react to RVS questions as opposed to people who are not?". Thor was reading you ignoring his vote on you as fake, meaning his question to DYH was gauging your motive for underreacting; there is obvious scum motive in ignoring an RVS question if you know that no one will really pay attention to it. I also don't see what responses could make DYH look bad; "I don't know" is a fair point, "Yes he does know", "No he doesn't know", all pretty OK answers that I wouldn't have a problem with.
"I don't know" is the only answer DYH could have given that Thor wouldn't have been able to spin against him (or me).
Quote from Nachomamma8 »
So you voted him in the midst of a giant wall? It would have seemed more natural if you just voted him and left it at that.
How would it have been more natural? I continued responding to the walls until so many brain cells had died that I wasn't going to continue and out of frustration + my interpretation of Thor's motive, I opted for a vote. It can't be "more natural" than setting out to do something, coming to a realization about what I'm doing, and accomplishing a different goal instead.
Quote from Nachomamma8 »
What are your reads on the MS side?
Vierni - Leaning scum/Null (Vi is probably my towniest MS read as of recently)
Fate - Leaning scum
Nacho - Scum
Kami - Scum
Thor - Leaning scum
llama - Leaning scum
Quote from Nachomamma8 »
Interactions, sure, but it seems like a waste for you to vote me (whose playstyle you are unfamiliar with and you are less confident will flip scum) when you have scum you are familiar with available for lynching.
...um, what? I'm not more confident at all that Cyouni will flip scum over you. I think you're far more likely to be scum.
The fact that your wagon dissipated as soon as you made a catch-up post that wasn't all that strong makes me
ISO STOP BEING SO GODDAMN SCUMMY AND RUINING MY WAGON
THEN DO SOMETHING USEFUL
So the whole MS team is in your scum pile, and DYH too? Come on, honestly?
Also, your attitude toward Thor is much more hostile than your attitude toward Nacho, yet you are voting Nacho.
Ultimately, none of your behavior lines up, and this goes far beyond an excuse like, "Well I'm trying to change my playstyle." Part of the reason that I'm suspicious of DYH is because he so easily accepted this excuse on your behalf.
The frustration in Iso's last post seems sincere to mem [...].
Funny you should say that, Iso is starting to sound increasingly manufactured and contrived to me.
Well, being me, his personal plea to me sounded sincere. But maybe you would have to be me(or at least from MTGS) to get it. I'm not completely writing him off as possible scum, I'm just willing to look at other avenues for now. And I feel strongly about DYH being scum as well.
If I think someone's scum, and I vote them, it doesn't bug me AT ALL if the people helping me lynch scum don't bother posting a reason. Surely it's possible they thought my arguments were good or something. Questioning fellow voters shows low conviction. At least say "I appreciate the Vi vote, but out of curiousity what convinced you?" or something.
Right, because scum never hop on wagons and just let other townies do all of the work.
How is life in fantasyland?
Re: Thor: It's true that he has been posting differently, but now that we know that he is in Vietnam and is posting from an iPad, it makes sense. I don't think that further suspicion is warranted at this time.
In the mean time, more people should be looking at DYH. His attitude toward Thor is dubious at best. He was all up in arms about how Thor's attitude sucks, and then when Thor's posting demeanor changed, DYH used that as a point against him too. This smacks of opportunism. He didn't even bother trying to figure out WHY Thor was suddenly acting so differently. This isn't even consistent with DYH's stance of accepting Iso's 'well I'm trying a different playstyle'.
If I think someone's scum, and I vote them, it doesn't bug me AT ALL if the people helping me lynch scum don't bother posting a reason. Surely it's possible they thought my arguments were good or something. Questioning fellow voters shows low conviction. At least say "I appreciate the Vi vote, but out of curiousity what convinced you?" or something.
Right, because scum never hop on wagons and just let other townies do all of the work.
How is life in fantasyland?
Re: Thor: It's true that he has been posting differently, but now that we know that he is in Vietnam and is posting from an iPad, it makes sense. I don't think that further suspicion is warranted at this time.
In the mean time, more people should be looking at DYH. His attitude toward Thor is dubious at best. He was all up in arms about how Thor's attitude sucks, and then when Thor's posting demeanor changed, DYH used that as a point against him too. This smacks of opportunism. He didn't even bother trying to figure out WHY Thor was suddenly acting so differently. This isn't even consistent with DYH's stance of accepting Iso's 'well I'm trying a different playstyle'.
Wow, is that completely incorrect.
I've known Thor has been in Vietnam posting from an iPad, he mentioned it quite some time ago - and, as I pointed out - was posting like he did previously while on said iPad. So I don't believe the 'tone shift' is directly related to that. It is, in my opinion - as I clearly expressed in a very recent post - tied to his inability to just disregard the attack on him now that Kami/DGB is involved.
You need to reassess your read, Cyan, because you're wasting your time - and there's not much of it left before the deadline.
So, to be clear. We have Thor, who is apparently(according to everyone else from MS) well known to have this demeanor, regardless of alignment. Nevermind that demeanor is not a scum tell. But your argument is that, despite being under no suspicion because of it, he felt compelled to visibly change his demeanor anyway.
How does this make any sense? Why would anyone do so?
You are reaching, and you know it.
The way that you're trying to get me to look away from you only makes you look worse, also.
And the fact that Kami, one of the scummier people in this game, is championing this wagon also does not help.
The Thor wagon is bad, and I won't be a part of it. And neither should anyone else.
Do you guys ever actually make detailed, organized cases on each other? I understand why people want to vote for Thor, but that is largely thanks to the effort of DYH(even though I disagree with the case).
But you seem very determined to have people vote for AF, and I have no idea why.
Also, KOL still seems like the scummiest person from MS. And it's not particularly close.
But you seem very determined to have people vote for AF, and I have no idea why.
It's hard to explain, but normally Fate is elbow-deep in a game and I can follow his train of thought.
Here I find him very cautious and manufactured.
I'm accounting for a playstyle adjustment for him playing with seasoned debaters of semantic nuances - my inability to understand how his posts relate to anything currently happening in game state is behind my evaluation of Fatescum. It's possible he doesn't care about the game as town, it's possible he doesn't care as scum. As town he should make more sense than he does.
Well, some wagon needs to actually happen here. I still don't think Thor is scum, and while I still think that Iso and KoL are the most likely to be scum, and DYH could be, I don't think I was ever going to make any of those cases stick today.
So, Unvote, Vote AF
@Vierni: There is some merit to what you are saying(and I believe the term you are looking for in regard to point 2 is 'strawmaning'), but I think that you are misunderstanding me somewhat. I am not saying that everyone needs to post like dC. I appreciate that he does it, but I appreciate that he is one of the only people that does. But you guys seem to vote/refuse to vote each other based on seemingly nothing, and without explanation. And I don't really get that.
I've been calling KoL scum all game long, dC. I just don't know how to really quantify it. It's just a lack of content on his part that seems sincere to me. The only wagon that he has put any meaningful effort into was against Thor, and that was only after someone else started the party.
The rest of the people from MS are actively looking for scum. KoL really is not, in my estimation.
Pretty sure that this post is a huge leak of scum information, due to not knowing the wording of a town role PM. If you were town, you should have been able to work out(by checking your own role PM, like I did, if nothing else) that llamarble is saying that his role is 'Town Poisoner - Detective Jimmy Halloran'. But you couldn't work that out, because you're not town.
HAHA. I just checked my role PM and if I'm reading into my flavor correctly, llamarble is my husband - and scum.
Voxx's vote tries too hard to appear natural.
This is super believable.
I initially wondered the same thing about llamarble's claim. The difference is that, because I am town, I went and looked at my role PM to make a comparison, and easily figured out what llamarble is saying. You didn't do that, because you are not town.
@Voxx: No, but I see that now. So nevermind.
Cyouni seems like a good choice for a Vig candidate then, given that he already claimed Vanilla(so the scum are never going to NK him even if he is town).
Pre-Post Edit:
At this point, I think there's a pretty clear dichotomy between llama and Kami. Poisoner + Doc seems inelegant.
Wait, what? This makes literally no sense..Dog + Vig is inelegant? Come on, are you even trying now? Or are you just trying to buy any mislynch so that one person dies before you do?
@Cyan: A Doc protects a player from being killed that Night. Poisoners target at Night and kill at the end of the next Day. Docs do not stop Poisoners unless their ability is specifically stated to do so - a la a Poison Doc.
I call shenanigans on this, I have literally never seen it work that way. It doesn't even make sense. And even if it did, the existence of said poisoner would not stop the game from having a Doc. A Doc exists at least as much to prevent scum NKs as it does to prevent mis-viggings.
I really don't know what to make of you making this argument, because it's a pretty bad one.
Claiming VT is why you wouldn't be lynched? What? Vanilla is a claim that should ALWAYS get lynched. It's a completely safe claim for a scum to make, and has a built in excuse for never getting NKed.
Also, the idea that you randomly happen to be llamarble's wife via flavor is a complete load of crap, and earlier you said that this 'probably means that llamarble is scum', which now you haven't touched on at all.
tl;dr completely awful false-claim, please get lynched.
What does your role PM flavor possibly having to do with someone possibly counterclaiming some completely other person?
@Iso: I feel like I maybe know what could be going on here, and if it is, stop wasting our time and just do what needs to be done. And there is literally only one thing I can think of that makes sense of any of us that doesn't involve you being scum.
It's great to know that any scum can just claim Vanilla Town on MS and no one will ever look at them again. To me, THAT is 'sub-optimal'. And Doctor is nowhere near as 'safe' of a claim as Vanilla. It is a risky claim, because on our site, there is almost always a town Doc. So when you false-claim Doc as scum, you are usually just trying to draw a counterclaim from the real one so that your team can NK him. And said real Doc should ALWAYS counterclaim, because getting a 1 for 1 trade is completely acceptable for the town.
And, most importantly, Iso is from this site. He knows fully well that Vanilla is not a claim (around here) that keeps one from getting lynched.
I feel like I've put some pieces together, and I'm waiting to see what Iso has to say back to me. But for now, I'm not unvoting.
And is this how things usually go for you guys? One day until a deadline and everyone is just spouting out claims out of nowhere? Because this is completely miserable.
Also, if there are 'half-decent reasons to lynch Iso' other than the ones I mentioned, how about you tell us what they are?
I would like for everyone to let Iso answer the question that I posed to him a couple of posts ago before he is lynched. I think that I have worked something out, and he is just being too coy, but I want to hear it from him.
So...to summarize follow up events. Iso clarifies that he is not, in fact, counter-claiming llamarble. He just completely thinks that Llamarble is scum based on role flavor. And apparently said role flavor is not particularly concrete. Llamarble then partakes in an exercise where he helps Iso legitimize/make sense of this belief.
Honestly, what is going on this game? We're like 6 hours from deadline, and there is almost no solidity as far as whom we should be lynching.
Everyone is unvoting Iso, but somehow they are not voting Llamarble instead. This makes zero sense. If you believe that Iso is town, you should clearly be voting the person that he flatly stated is scum.
So...to summarize follow up events. Iso clarifies that he is not, in fact, counter-claiming llamarble. He just completely thinks that Llamarble is scum based on role flavor. And apparently said role flavor is not particularly concrete. Llamarble then partakes in an exercise where he helps Iso legitimize/make sense of this belief.
Honestly, what is going on this game? We're like 6 hours from deadline, and there is almost no solidity as far as whom we should be lynching.
Everyone is unvoting Iso, but somehow they are not voting Llamarble instead. This makes zero sense. If you believe that Iso is town, you should clearly be voting the person that he flatly stated is scum.
I've been trying to get Iso lynched more or less all day. I seem to be the only one that cares that he cannot remotely keep his story straight. How is that 'keeping a low profile'?
Right. You went from initially telling us, when you were getting run up, that you 'won't be getting lynched today', which is an OBVIOUS implication of a power role, to ultimately claiming 'Vanilla'.
Then you tried to call foul on llamarble's role because you thought he was a poisoner detective, and couldn't be bothered to read your own role PM and work out the syntax. And yes, I know that you're blaming that on your phone being crappy. And that's fine. But it seems to me that a reasonable townie would wait to comment on that until they could check, not just throw something out there to try and make a person look worse.
Unrelatedly, that brings up a good point. What IS the syntax for your character + role name? I know mine, and reading it made it abundantly obvious what llamarble meant.
Then you tried to tell us that he must be scum(this is exactly what you said) based on flavor in your role PM, but when you couldn't come up with a believable story, you just hedged your bets and said 'well maybe I'm just reading too much into it'.
Ultimately, behaviorally, the only way you could be scummier is if you posted 'I am scum'. And hey, at least that would be the truth.
The only way that llamarble could be scum is if he is A)brazenly lying about having this ability(if this is the case, it will become clear when he never actually kills anyone) or B)is a neutral(and I don't see how that is possible, given the town WC).
Iso was just grasping at straws, and somehow it seems to be working. And it is making me seethe.
Sigh. Looking at the vote counts, the claimed Vig and claimed Doc are voting for AF, and are from his site. DYH has also strongly implied a power role and is voting him as well.
And on the flip-side, AF is one of the people voting Iso.
@llamarble: To be clear on something that I'm not sure if you answered or not, is your shot delayed? Or will it kill someone as soon as you target them?
This day 1 really doesn't inspire me to want to complete 5 more of these games. Even if AF is somehow scum, it's just going to feel like we threw darts and got lucky.
I'm expecting a good explanation out of Llamarble as to why he looks to have been lying yesterDay. (And don't try anything about both a Toughguy and a Poisoner in the same game.)
I'm also expecting reasons from the two people above. (I'm not expecting terribly good ones.)
Thor's probably scum, though I still need to check through yesterDay to make sure.
This post is really, really bad.
Cyouni's vote on AF was also completely negligible(though to be fair, so was mine).
I would cast a vote here, but I don't want to apply the third vote on someone this quickly into the day, especially someone whose claim we've already seen. I would be willing to lynch Cyouni ultimately, though.
I'm not convinced that any scum was going to leave themself sitting on Iso's wagon once it became completely obvious that AF was getting lynched(yes yes, I get the irony of me making this statement). I certainly don't think that this is sufficient valid reasoning for voting Voxxicus.
DYH and Cyan's votes were timed strangely enough that either vote could easily be bussing. Vierni's actually right about #915, now that Iso's flipped town and llamarble is less likely to be scum. I need to comb their previous posts for their mentions of Fate. I seem to recall Cyan not actually talking much about MS players...
Maybe you meant Cyouni but said DYH? That would make much more sense than what you've said here. Also, I talked about MS players plenty. I found(and still do) Thor and Vierni to be thoroughly town, had a null read on AF and llamarble, and found KoL and Nacho to be scummy. I was wrong about KoL, but I'm still not completely convinced about Nacho.
Fate was literally screaming at me yesterday to leave Iso alone and help lynch Cy at a point where it would have been quite easy for him to get with the Iso wagon because he'd been part of it already once before (and went there again). I do not see that as a likely bus action at that stage of the game.
I am going to go back and check this. If it's true, I agree with Thor that this make Cyouni incredibly unlikely to be scum.
No, I've clicked on that game thread quite a few times myself, unfortunately.
I think that there is a fair argument that scum always should be looking to bus early in the game. I'll go over the context of that conversation and see what AF had to say.
I don't think Cyouni makes sense as a scumbuddy the way Fate was talking about the slot. That looks like a chosen mislynch for the day to me.
Two people came in and were voting Cyouni. You say it's the 'chosen mislynch' for the day. Which of them is the scum pushing the mislynch, then? You say that, and then vote...DYH.
The logic doesn't mesh, at all. You think Cyouni is town, you think scum are pushing the lynch on him, but you aren't making any attempt to determine the alignment of Vi/Nacho - who are the only people voting/pushing for that lynch.
Reconcile this.
This seems like the best post I've seen all game. I'm greatly looking forward to seeing it answered.
@Vierni: I feel like I already assessed the situation that you are referring to, yesterday in the following post"
Quote from Me »
Sigh. Looking at the vote counts, the claimed Vig and claimed Doc are voting for AF, and are from his site. DYH has also strongly implied a power role and is voting him as well.
And on the flip-side, AF is one of the people voting Iso.
Maybe I've been wrong all along. Unvote, Vote AF
I wouldn't know it reading this page.
Things change?
But aside from asking if you have strong reads at all, I'd like to redirect your attention here.
You're still my leading town candidate, but not much beyond that. llamarble is clearly town, but that's not really a 'read'.
Interesting. DC's analysis is pretty impressive, from an objective standpoint. If I wasn't me, I'd probably think I was scum.
Though I will note that he makes more direct conclusions in that post than he is typically prone toward.
I'm probably a good lynch candidate today, honestly.
I also think that, at most, one of DYH/Thor is scum. DYH hinted toward a power role yesterday, and should be expected to deliver on that at some point. If I were him and I had relevant information to share, I'd consider doing so today, because he seems fairly unlikely to survive tonight now that the Doc is already dead.
I still don't see Voxx as scum, but I could see Cyouni as such. And I'm not really sold on Nacho being town, but I wouldn't want to pursue him as a lynch before most of the other people that are still alive.
Cyouni - early on Fate wagon, that whole "you didn't read stuff" attack from Fate doesn't read as a bus
As Nacho pointed out, Cyouni was the hammer vote. 'Early on Fate wagon' that isn't. I think Cyouni's probably town as well, but that first one doesn't read like you're actually paying attention.
desCoures - preferred Iso lynch to Fate, interactions with Thor, KoL, Llamarble aren't good
Fair enough on llamarble. Even fair enough on Thor, considering you have him as scum. But explain what in blazes you mean by 'interactions with KoL aren't good', because once she actually started contributing I had her consistently as town.
As for the first part, I also wanted llamarble to shoot Fate when Iso looked to be the lynch, and pretty clearly said I would support a Fate lynch as well. Heck, if the wagon hadn't started and ended on a weekend (during which you know for a fact I'm almost never around, because that's been the case in every game you've ever seen me play here) I would probably have happily voted for Fate as well. Or what, you're going to claim you 'forgot it was a weekend'?
-----------------
As for Voxxicus, apparently his entire case is predicated on 'there must be 1 scum on 5-person wagons on town'. Riiight. I'm barely seeing any behavioural analysis in that whole post, except for where he claims Vierni hasn't done much of anything. Ignoring, I note, the point where Vierni was key in bringing the Fate wagon to fruition. A point I make in the several questions I pose to him and which he has totally ignored.
(Additionally, one of his '5-person wagons on town' happens to include him. What a coincidence.)
I'm additionally unenthused by the fact that he stopped by, posted well after the mod's posted votecount, and neglected to even begin to claim, despite being at L-2. You're not from MS, Voxxicus. You don't have that excuse.
Unvote: Cyan
HoS with intent to vote: Voxxicus
There's not a shred of sincerity in what you're throwing out, Voxxicus. Your posts in Redux 2 Mirror were full of behavioural insight. I'm seeing none of that here.
This post feels thoroughly bad. DC shouldn't have been so easily distracted from his case against me. And if he were town, I would expect him to stick with it more(especially given that I acknowledged that he made valid points).
His assessment thaT Voxx should claim, while correct, still comes across poorly also. Unvote, Vote DC
@Vierni: There is no real reason TO put anyone at L-1. When people on here get to L-2, they know that they're expected to claim, and then we evaluate their claim in combination w/ everything else. Putting them at L-1 might be fine in this particular game, but with less seasoned players, it's just asking for someone to screw up and lynch someone before the town is really ready for it.
Voxx's claim of 'I know DYH is town based on night actions' seems believable to me. If he were scum, I would expect him to just actually commit to a claim somehow.
And I disagree that my vote on Cyouni is bad. Cyouni was run up yesterday, and has continued to act scummy since. This rarely happens with townies, except for really bad ones(which is not a relevant factor for this game).
@Cyan: Do you not have anything to say about Cyouni's most recent post?
Thor picking Voxxicus over desCoures here has all the makings of yesterday's Iso/Fate conundrum. I can't say I'm particularly surprised by his choice. After all, the scum already have to deal with llamarmble, so if the town could not lynch his partner and (BONUS!) go ahead and mislynch the now-claimed investigative role, that'd be great!
So yeah, I'd lynch either Thor or dC at this point. A lot of my feelings about Cyan are tied up in the answer to my question to him above.
Meh. I didn't have a scum read on AF, and he flipped scum. It happens. It happened yesterday. Cyouni suddenly trying to make a big deal out of this immediately after I called him scum looks really poor. And yes, his claim spoke well of him, for reasons already stated. And then he continued to act scummy. In my experience, when that happens, it usually means that the person is scum.
And Cyouni's response only reinforces this belief for me.
I honestly don't even know what you are talking about. I voted AF because 3 people that were likely town were voting AF, and the deadline was very imminent. That is the only reason. I will never attempt to claim any credit for being involved in his wagon.
That entire post feels like 'a bunch of words that don't actually say anything'. I also feel like dC is forcing the 'go ahead and lynch me' card a little too much here.
No, I don't think it is. But to be fair, I had him as solidly town all game the last time he was scum(recently in the game that DRey Modded...U something).
But even taking that into account, this doesn't seem like something Voxx would do.
Name those people. I'll wait.
In the meantime, I'm betting you're going to name me, Vi, and Kami of Lunacy, as we were the only people pressuring AF at that point. But you called Kami of Lunacy scum both before and after that post, and she wasn't even voting AF at that point.
In other words, bull.
Here is my exact statement on the subject, which I have already previously referenced today:
Sigh. Looking at the vote counts, the claimed Vig and claimed Doc are voting for AF, and are from his site. DYH has also strongly implied a power role and is voting him as well.
And on the flip-side, AF is one of the people voting Iso.
Maybe I've been wrong all along. Unvote, Vote AF
If I were scum, I would never have bussed AF there. I gain absolutely nothing out of doing so(you could even argue that I look worse because I gave up the Iso case that I had been on all day). But I did it anyway, because it was the correct play, as town.
@Voxx: Meh. This game has made me realize how much I depend upon meta, honestly. I'm pretty lost without having it to filter out 'naturally scummy playstyles'. I had no such analysis available for KoL, and look how that turned out. And Nacho looks like town now as well based on his behavior toward AF yesterday, despite acting thoroughly scummy for most of Day 1.
OK so i won't wall, but i will drop a series of what I like to call "minor observations" by examining what everyone has done today:
Thor: Thor maybe maybe might be scum. There is at least one scum in {dC, Cyouni} and he is definitely defending both of them (special emphasis on the dc defense). He has been shutting down his options if he actually is scum, so there's always that, and there is the earlier townread that I sort of want to continue to value. Thor most likely defending two scum in a game pretty strongly is always worth a second look, though.
Cyan: Cyan is attacking {dC, Cyouni} which is definitely not something he would do while pulling the whole "i don't know what's going on" game as scum and with a buddy down day 1. He's back to solid townfriend.
dC: I actually read earlier that dC was so confident in Voxxicus-scum that he figured it was far more likely he was just fakeclaiming. That "I'm tunneling a claimed power role who is likely town" was something that worked decently once on Llamarble, but happening for a second time on another claimed power role doesn't really make me feel that good, not to mention that dC only gets REAL CONVICTION when Voxxicus starts pushing him pretty hard. His play is also pretty much what I'd expect from scum in his position; keeping his options open and protecting partner-Cyouni.
cyouni is not THAT commentable but i'll look through him again later, i've sort of been separating myself from his lately to see other things, but if thor's not scum (which i doubt at the moment), cyouni almost certainly is.
If Cyouni is scum, I could see Thor being scum also.
Ultimately, Cyouni is the most likely scum in my book, no matter how you spin it.
@Cyouni: Apparently I don't even understand what question you are trying to ask, since I feel like I have already answered it repeatedly and you disagree.
What does your vote on AF at deadline have anything to do with how you voted him earlier in the day (a week before deadline)?
Everything you've said has been related to the one at deadline, and absolutely nothing to do with the one significantly before that. And you obviously didn't think he was town then.
I didn't even remember that I ever voted him before my deadline vote on him. So..these two votes have nothing to do with each other, and never did.
On here, in my experience(the role doesn't come up TOO often, but it seems like what Zionite would use for this game), Gunsmith = role that can kill other people. The methodology of the kill doesn't really matter.
Also, you can take DYH off of my list of scum suspects. I forgot that Voxx cleared him yesterday. And I can't really see this being a gambit on Voxx' part, given that he would have had to start it yesterday, and it's unlikely that he was planning on lying about a guilty result before coming into the thread(the scum couldn't know for certain that llamarble would kill a townie).
BIG CYAN PROBLEMS:
1) The majority of his posts are Day 1. When claims started coming out and the puzzle actually started unfolding, Cyan cooled down big time. Posting levels decreasing is not a major deal because Day 1 was huge, long, etc. The problem is that all of the fire that Cyan had sort of burned out completely, due apparently to the Day 1 lynch. I don't find a ****ty first day that ends with a scum lynch to be something that completely wrecks morale, but his Cyouni push in later days had no comparison to his other pushes, and I think that may be because of scum fatigue.
2) Day 1 Pushes: Iso (chainsawing Thor), DYH (chainsawing Thor), KoL (chainsawing Thor). He consistently finds KoL and I scummy, but doesn't attack Fate early-game (why? it's not like he was putting out a ton more content than we were at that moment). He ends up on both Fate wagons, but both times also as a late addition and his hop is inconsistent with his thought process towards Fate. The first time he votes Fate, there are plenty of other options on stronger stated scumreads. Why vote Fate in that particular time unless he was distancing with his buddy? Second Fate vote is right when Fate is going to be lynched when Cyan goes "well maybe I'm wrong but if Fate flips scum then that day was just lucky". To me, that reads as an attempt to discredit those on the Fate wagon since him and his buddy didn't partake too much in the scumlynch Day 1; it also seems like an unnatural flip from his play before.
3) Cyan buddying up to the MTGSers in the way that he did seemed a bit sketchy, but sketchier were his attacks on KoL and I while skipping over Fate, who was also a lazy low content poster at the time. If I remember properly, DYH even brought up that Cyan was giving the MSers more slack than he was expecting him to; I think that's because both of his buddies were in the ms crew and he would rather focus on the mtgs group instead of the ms one.
4) His push on Thor; so in case you hadn't noticed, Cyan had Thor as town town town for pretty much the whole game until yesterday. He then sort of sets up for the whole "one of Thor/DYH is scum" dichotomy so that he can lynch DYH one day and then bus his buddy the next. He also never seemed like he was moving towards voting Thor at any time during his play yesterday, and thanking DYH for catching Thorscum seems like an odd thing to do as town because he caught Thorscum as well.
I think that there is one thing that needs to be addressed today.
@DYH: On Day 1, you heavily implied that you were some kind of town power role. At this point, I'm having a VERY difficult time seeing what that could be. Please tell us your role.
@Cyan: I'm not a power role; I'm Town Vanilla Detective Perelli. I was trying to draw the NK to myself because in addition to being VT, I was tired of arguing with Thor, and I sure as hell didn't want to follow it up with a wallposting session with you. I didn't really trust you at the point I unvoted, so I wanted to sweeten the pot for you if you were scum. The fact I didn't end up dead has been a town point in your favor in my estimation, although not a confident read because of what followed (KoL became default kill, barring a RB).
Of course, then KoL ends up claiming Doc and Llama Poisoner, and at that point I doubted there was another town power role altogether - at least not a substantial one, so that's why I was skeptical of Iso near the end of Day 1. I probably would have pushed to lynch him had he claimed full cop; something I think you were hinting that you expected him to do. When he claimed Vanilla, I commented in my analysis that I believed he would make that gambit and had 'made the right play' - even if I disagreed that had he been forced to claim at the point when he did it that he would've avoided a lynch, which he seemed to truly believe.
It's also why I pushed for Voxx to claim D2. I found it hard to believe three of us would've been doing the same "take one for the team" play.
@Cyan: I'm not a power role; I'm Town Vanilla Detective Perelli. I was trying to draw the NK to myself because in addition to being VT, I was tired of arguing with Thor, and I sure as hell didn't want to follow it up with a wallposting session with you. I didn't really trust you at the point I unvoted, so I wanted to sweeten the pot for you if you were scum. The fact I didn't end up dead has been a town point in your favor in my estimation, although not a confident read because of what followed (KoL became default kill, barring a RB).
Of course, then KoL ends up claiming Doc and Llama Poisoner, and at that point I doubted there was another town power role altogether - at least not a substantial one, so that's why I was skeptical of Iso near the end of Day 1. I probably would have pushed to lynch him had he claimed full cop; something I think you were hinting that you expected him to do. When he claimed Vanilla, I commented in my analysis that I believed he would make that gambit and had 'made the right play' - even if I disagreed that had he been forced to claim at the point when he did it that he would've avoided a lynch, which he seemed to truly believe.
It's also why I pushed for Voxx to claim D2. I found it hard to believe three of us would've been doing the same "take one for the team" play.
This post feels like a huuuuuuge overexplanation.
I can't shake the feeling that DYH and Voxx are the 2 remaining scum. This would require some extremely savvy scum play on Voxx' part, but it seems possible.
I want to go back and read Voxx D1 to see if it's believable that he gun-checked DYH.
I just really feel like we're getting set up here. I hate it when someone has a scum investigation result in lynch or lose.
I'd totally consider lynching DYH if he was on the table. But this is what that's up against.
*Voxxicus' words seems to be Town-motivated (if not particularly accurate). I'll even buy the 40-45% desCoures-scum line as trying to justify a lynch he knows is bad but has to proceed with anyway (because I'm bad at Mafia and don't consider that damning).
*More importantly, the Gunsmith claim was somewhat well-executed.
*Voxxicus and Cyan have denied the existence of a role that can fabricate a negative result to a Gunsmith.
*Thor's flailing looks like it comes from scum.
Over-explanation? No, Cyan, it's basically a pre-mortem for my potential death. Here's how I expect this to play out:
Thor gets lynched, flips scum.
Voxx gets killed overnight.
Likely no lynch following day*.
I get killed overnight.
You/Vi/Nacho are the remaining three.
*although this point is debatable if the thought is scum are "underpowered". Do they potentially have a tough guy? Seems unlikely with a 2-shot vig in the equation already.
We should be getting as much detail into the thread as possible while there are four townies alive instead of two or three for discussion.
Would you be less paranoid if I had just answered, "I'm not a power role" and left it at that? I doubt it. It's likely the same feeling I had about the Hobbit where I thought Voxx was snowing us. I don't know that anything would have changed my mind there. Fortunately, Seppel killed me and kept me from screwing it up for the town.
Upon further reflection, the option to No Lynch today does exist, and forces the scum to make a difficult choice. Kill Voxx and condemn Thor? Kill me and confirm Voxx's ability - or at least that he "cleared" a townie? Kill one of Cyan, Nacho, or Vi and eliminate a mislynch?
I haven't run through all the potential ramifications, but it's probably worth discussing, nonetheless. Could help give confidence in reads - or at least reduce the conspiracy theories to a minimum.
*although this point is debatable if the thought is scum are "underpowered". Do they potentially have a tough guy? Seems unlikely with a 2-shot vig in the equation already.
"tough guy"?
FWIW, I wouldn't No Lynch at four when there's a confirmed innocent.
Upon further reflection, the option to No Lynch today does exist, and forces the scum to make a difficult choice. Kill Voxx and condemn Thor? Kill me and confirm Voxx's ability - or at least that he "cleared" a townie? Kill one of Cyan, Nacho, or Vi and eliminate a mislynch?
That's correct, but I wasn't going to bring it up if Voxxicus was agreed to be Town.
...of course, you claiming vanilla lessens the fun WIFOM potential a fair bit.
From Thor-scum's point of view--
*Kill Voxxicus. Get lynched the next Day. Burn kill on confTown DYH. End result is 3P LyLo. (This is safest, therefore most probable.)
*Kill DYH. Voxxicus vs. Thor exists the next Day, but Voxxicus has another investigation on his side to be taken into account. (You know you're awesome when you mislynch someone who has guilties on your whole team in LyLo.) This results in 3P LyLo with a confirmed alignment if Thor is lynched.
*Kill one of the fluffballs. Same as above, but with one more confTown. Best case is that Voxxicus gets lynched; worst case is a completely solved 3P LyLo due to DYH/Voxxicus + Voxxicus' second investigation.
Voxxicus-scum's perspective is more interesting because the obvious kill choice is not available to him. However, the second and third scenarios are the same as above, but since all of the investigative results are voided when Voxxicus flips scum the end result is pretty much always 3P LyLo.
The alternative is to not No Lynch in the first place and go into 4P LyLo with a confirmed innocent, which is basically 3P LyLo without hair-trigger quickhammers.
But most importantly, this is only really worth considering if there's a serious question of Voxxicus being scum. I'd like to appeal to game balance - right now there's evidence of a Doctor and a Vig, versus a Role Cop. Would it make sense for Town to have no other roles in this game? It seems the Role Cop is overkill for just those two Town roles.
A tough guy is a mafia 'bonus' killer. In short, the scum would have two kills in one night.
And no, I don't think Doc/Vig vs. only Role Cop makes much sense. Roleblocker, sure. Role cop? Meh. Add gunsmith in the place of a cop where the Vig can be a false positive and I think the balance is better. Especially considering a 2-shot Vig is rare here on MTGS; it's generally 1-shot or full. Not to mention the day/poisoning part.
Actually, I can totally imagine Zionite tapping his fingers together in a sinister manner going, "How funny would it be if the gunsmith checks the vig and he claims a two-shot day poisoner? Yeah, that'll never fly here." /evillaugh
And no, I don't think Doc/Vig vs. only Role Cop makes much sense.
...I was thinking the other way around, that Role Cop was overkill for just those two roles...
Mafia Vigs are uncommon enough that they cause a stir when they appear, and it's pretty much always in Themes. (I don't think Mafia Vig is disallowed in Normal games, but you wouldn't see one in a game this size.)
(I also thought we co-opted the Tough Guy name to replace Bulletproof Godfather. The world needs to revolve more around us.)
I would put him as third most likely scumbuddy to Voxx, behind Vi and DYH.
I think DYH makes a lot of sense considering the way of the votes, and also that Voxx really had no logic behind a DYH investigation considering the pushes he'd made. That said, I'll admit if *I* was a fakeclaiming cop I'd probably want to get a town on my side with a false clear, and that's my only bugaboo there, but I'd want to lynch him most after the Voxx scum lynch.
@Everyone else - At least with the way the scores are tabulated this hurts me less than all of you. But, seriously, this is dumb. If you want to buy his claim let's at least do a massclaim. Because apparently we *all* believe that scum have no roleblocker, And, y'know, if there's even another town PR it makes how thi sis fake look *way* more likely.
Use your brains, don't just derp lynch because 'hey, guy claimed cop, hurrrr, shut down brain functions.'
@Vi - okay, so you think the Vig/Gunsmith adds validity...but we also don't believe scum have a roleblocker, because otherwise, y'know, they would have ROLEBLOCKED THE "COP".
So...WHAT IS THE OTHER SCUM ROLE?
Because if it's a GF then what you are saying is that the Cop is actually basically almost as likely to mislynch the Vig as it is to even find a scum.
Think about that and get back to me with your balance talk.
I'm curious.
The setup doesn't make sense with the Gunsmith, people.
It is a fake claim.
I think we should NL today. The only reason not to is the possibility of the scum having a toughguy, and I just can't accept that in a game where the town had a vig with multiple shots.
And regardless of his alignment, Thor makes a good point about the role balance in this game. It is simply not believable that the scum setup is rolecop/goon/goon. Maybe it could be rolecop/goon/godfather, but even that seems weak against 'Cop/Doc/Multi-shot Vig'(even though the Cop could accidentally out the Vig). Presumably, the scum have a Godfather.
The only problem with no lynching is that, if Voxx is scum running a gambit, he will just continue to do so by faking an investigation on 'random person that doesn't get NKed'.
We could mitigate this by choosing his target for him in advance. If the scum kill that person, all the better. Of course, if Voxx is lying, he could just name that person as scum anyway.
Meh. I can't shake the fear that we're being played here, but I can't find enough evidence to comfortably convince myself that this is what is happening.
@Voxx: Why did you choose to investigate DYH N1? Why did you choose Thor N2?
Because, the only "gain" I see is someone will die.
Whoop-de-doo, the game is still down to a choice between me and Voxx.
The only way it remotely makes sense is if you believe BOTH of the following;
1. Voxx is town and I am scum.
2. There is no Godfather scum role.
If you believe both of those then a no kill makes sense.
If you don't, I fail to see how it helps.
I'd suggest massclaim as the smarter move.
Unless people want to convince me I'm scum and the scum team has a roleblocker and we just decided to let Voxx do what he did.
Because if there is another PR then I think people will note that Voxx is lying.
Yes, because town about to be mislynched in lylo would be all chill. Hell, go find me *any* game where I was relaxed in lylo.
If it exists I bet I was scum.
I mean, seriously, what magic has Voxx done where he is auto-believed?
Because if it's a GF then what you are saying is that the Cop is actually basically almost as likely to mislynch the Vig as it is to even find a scum.
I think if anyone had anything to claim, they would have done so by now.
Cyan, do tell what would result in a false negative on scum.
And, I'll repeat, what you're seeing from Thor is scum flailing.
The game could have a Framer, though this would be surprising. The scum have to have SOMETHING going for them, though. But if they have a Framer, they would have had to get somewhat lucky on Thor getting investigated. It's more likely that they have a Godfather, and that just isn't Thor.
It is absolutely possible that Voxx and DYH are the two remaining scum, and that this was carefully orchestrated. DYH's post that I deemed an over-explanation even supports this, IMO, because it shows that, if he is scum, the scum likely wouldn't think that the town has a traditional Cop, based on having a Doc and a Vig. But I don't think there is enough evidence to make this case, so ultimately we'll just have to believe Voxx and lynch Thor.
Let's lynch Thor.
How do we know the Gunsmith claim is true?
We don't...but we presume scum have a Godfather.
Why?
Because they didn't roleblock or kill the Gunsmith.
Which they also wouldn't do if the Gunsmith was scum heading for a lylo mislynch.
...true.
So, why lynch me then?
Because there is a Godfather.
And that was the entire day's contribution there, wasn't it?
Anyone want to guess why there is no conversation and everyone is happy lynching Thor?
It's because I'm scum and this is part of our brilliant plan!
Oh...wait, no, it's the other one, the one where I don't have team mates and therefore am the lone voice of dissent.
Check.
Unless Cyan is willing to explain how he went from immediately swallowing Voxxicus' result (1239, 1243) to saying that he hates LyLo Guilties and extreme caution should be used around them (1270 and following).
Cyan's arguments for Voxxicus+DYH-scum all have to do with DYH and the possibility of a false negative - which have nothing to do with Voxxicus, his claim, and his claimed incriminating result on Thor. I don't know why Cyan is placing such emphasis on a Voxxicus+DYH scumteam in particular; Voxxicus-scum does not imply DYH-scum and vice versa.
Why would I start this conversation as scum in such a laughably half-assed manner and then not go anywhere with it? If I were scum and needing to get one mislynch, exposing myself like that today would make no sense, I would clearly just work on someone tomorrow. People have been calling me town for literally the entire game, for me to post like this today as scum makes zero sense.
The only way that I think it would make sense for either Voxx or DYH to be scum is if they are both scum. Why would scum Voxx fake an investigation yesterday on a townie? Why not let said townie get mislynched? That is all risk with no reward.
Similarly, I can't see DYH being scum with Thor. His attitude toward Thor hasn't seemed manufactured at all(especially his posts toward the start of Day 2).
In my mind, either Voxx and DYH are both scum, or, neither of them is.
The only way that I think it would make sense for either Voxx or DYH to be scum is if they are both scum. Why would scum Voxx fake an investigation yesterday on a townie? Why not let said townie get mislynched? That is all risk with no reward.
Without agreeing with this, that's one piece. I'm more interested in the other part, since it's similar to how I blundered into being caught as scum once.
I think that there is one thing that needs to be addressed today.
@DYH: On Day 1, you heavily implied that you were some kind of town power role. At this point, I'm having a VERY difficult time seeing what that could be. Please tell us your role.
One thing that needs to be addressed today but my case on you isn't one of them...?
I'm giving you a chance! If a hypothetical Voxx-scum tried to fakeclaim a guilty on me I would be ripping everyone apart right now and I'd expect you to do the same. So, talk to me. Why is Cyan town?
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Hmm. This is an interesting tacit acknowledgement that I'm a better wagon, in Nacho's eyes, than Vi is.
Could you explain why this is the case, Nacho?
I don't know who I want to lynch out of you/Vi, but my latest post was a challenge for him to explain his thought process with regards to me and you.
Claim: I'm Mrs. Edgar Hylton, a VT (or TV as they call it here) I'm a debutante, had a daughter with a stolen piece of jewelry, and I'm trying to help the investigation.
Here's why lynching me is dumb.
1. We are in lylo.
2. There is a player who claimed Cop who was not shot or roleblocked
3. Yesterday the player made awkward claims to save himself.
4. I am the last living player who questioned said claims and felt the claim was gakky.
It is blatantly a setup here, and it saddens me you all can't spot it. Seriously, I'm scum and me and my buddy were like, "hey, let's kill this poisoning Vig that people suspect or...y'know, the guy claiming cop, what to do...what to do...
Because we were in such a good position versus the town of Vig, Doc, and Gunsmith, yeah?
Also, what is the scum team at that point? A rolecop and...what? What balances that back to the scum side since a rolecop is a wuss scum role versus the Doc/Cop combo? Maybe something strong like...say...a roleblocker, the basic defense unit versus the broken Doc/Cop combo?
That I, as scum, would opt *not* to use on a Cop I wasn't killing?
Me, a player who says the only way I'm ever caught as scum is via Cop effects?
Yeah....
How am I wrong?
Also, I personally think DYH is the buddy, and that I've been right a lot this game. Outside chance for Vi, I suppose, but I can't really see Vi/Voxx...meh, premptive call of Vi as scum if scum have redirecting/obfuscation tech.
What a brilliant kill on my part!
Fear me!
Y'know, that useful bit of scumhunting since he's going to end up dead tonight?
Y'know, maybe trying to see what Thor, his scumspect would say to this last attempt at scumhunting?
Nope, he got excited and preemptively leapt to the vote because he is close to win and doesn't care about scumhunting.
Hey, guys, just in case any of you are a PR, or Thor claims something believable, here's my defense setup...since I realize it's strange the cop is both alive and unblocked.
That said, let's definitely lynch my guilty result and try to figure out what's going on with the scumteam after a night phase...yes...:halo:
Actually I just noticed we have six alive, not seven. That changes what I've been thinking slightly, but not by enough for it to matter.
---
For Nacho - Cyan is playing my Town game. Either he's Town or I'm outclassed.
You're playing #YOLOville, i.e. showing up once Day 1 with #swag and lurking through the rest. Your vote record Yesterday is literally sheeping me, minus jumping off the desCoures train.
For Cyan's benefit, I have to be either the best scum alive or the worst scum alive to jump off both mislynch trains, particularly to bus Fate on the first one, given that scum are supposed to win mislynches. Actually I think I've been the first to jump off most of the wagons I've been on in this game. Given that I haven't asked for claims, that seems highly counterproductive for a scum player.
I'd also like to point out that llamarble had me (and Cyan) down as solid Town. If there's one other player in this game whose judgment I trust, it's him. Everyone else has managed to trip over themselves by now. I'd like to also point out this stance from the "Town w/reservations" part of Nacho's big reads post, which struck me as strange since he made it.
Not good enough. I've just gotten done reading every single ISO you've ever made as scum (according to your wiki) and this game looks so far gone from your scumgame that it hurts, actually. Tiny paranoid niggles in the back of my brain say that you might actually be scum but too many moves that you've made this game make absolutely no sense as scum and your scumgame certainly isn't impressive enough to pull this off unless you've made some pretty incredible leap and strides. And yet despite it all, I'm reanalyzing you because it's that time where we can't make mistakes and I am pulling the last minute adjustment game. Cyan looked town Day 1. Day 2 and Day 3 there was a bit of stale townread syndrome going on, so show me why he is so indisputably and incredibly town. Do you trust it more than you trust an innocent gunsmith result?
My voting record yesterday consists of a small run at Cyouni because I was entertaining a theory of Fate-scum distancing from a partner, a vote on Voxxicus because I had him-scum feelings for the greater part of D1, a jump off Voxxicus and onto dC because Voxxicus + DYH town left my scumlist looking like {dC, Cyouni} with an outside possibility of Thor. This was because of my confidence in Vi/Cyan town which was something that got established far, far earlier.
Why on earth would you bring up this sole interaction with Fate? I called out Fate before anyone else in order to point out that his opening was weird (voted him in #188 before anyone was really entertaining Fate as scum). I started sheeping Fate when it looked like he was stepping it up a little bit, I heavily took input from Llamarble about Fate when I was figuring out whether to lynch him or not, I specifically told him that I thought that we were letting Fate off the hook too easily and that the KoL push was bad (keep in mind this is while you are announcing the only two viable wagons are KoL and Thor), announced support for lynching Fate when you voted him. So yes, you can look at a piece of that interaction and go "lol, Fate town" but the interaction as a whole screams something different.
My concerns setupwise have to do with Godfathers everywhere, cop being left alive, no roleblocker anywhere and no evidence of any sort of scum power other than rolecop which can't fight cop/vig/doctor alone. A few setups of basics and normals I looked through:
TMNT MAFIA
Mafia Godfather
Mafia Roleblocker
Mafia Goon
Doctor
Cop
One-Shot Vig
Vanilla x6
Almost equivalent power in town ('cept we got a full vig here instead of a partial one), far more power in scum.
Katawa Mafia
Mafia Roleblocker
Mafia Goon x2
Doctor
One-Shot Vig
Tracker
Vanilla Townie x6
Weaker town, only one mafia power role.
House Mafia
Two-Shot Rolecop
One-Shot Roleblocker
Mafia Goon
JOAT (Doc, Vig, Watch)
One-Shot Neighborizer
Two-Shot Tracker
Vanilla Townie x6
Weaker town, weaker scum.
Disney Villains Mafia
Mafia Roleblocker
Mafia Goon x2
Doctor
Tracker
One-Shot Vig
Vanilla Townie x6
Unseen University
Mafia Jailkeeper (originally godfather)
Mafia Goon x2
Bodyguard
Cop
Vanilla Townie x7
At least one of Godfather/Roleblocker seems to be so common in these things that I'm decently confident in there being a Godfather this game, especially since our current setup looks something like this:
Mafia ???
Mafia Rolecop
Mafia ???
Cop
Vig
Doctor
Vanilla Townie x6
Town power looks closest to TMNT mafia, rolecop is close *enough* to roleblocker, meaning last power role slot is most likely a godfather. And considering I haven't seen any crazy mafia power roles in my skimming of other basics and normals; redirector is to fear but evidence of that is nowhere to be found. Framers also seem pretty are (haven't seen one), so there goes that fear. Additionally, it also makes sense to me to leave the cop alive and kill the Vig if you have a Godfather that can be townread by the cop/JOAT/whatever. Godfather possibilities end up reassuring me about DYH; I see no reason to kill the vig and leave alive the cop unless you are hoping to be investigated, and a Voxxicus investigation on DYH means that objective was already met. Cyan leaving him alive still makes sense, however: Voxxicus makes a rant before the end of the day yesterday telling us to watch out for coasting Cyan, so that might look like a chance that he will be investigated.
In all of this speculation, there's the matter of no Godfather to a Gunsmith. I don't think that's safe speculation; Llamarble was a Poisoner but the doctor could obviously protect against his kills. Voxxicus may be Gunsmith but I still think a Godfather will be able to counter.
Next post will be ISOs; I'm going to go through the game and post isos of the game that I can read through easily and then I'm gonna start reading them. Then I'm gonna be gone for a little while.
Here's another setup possibility - fakeclaim.
Even if Mafia has a Godfather they are *still* underpowered compared to those other setups if every roleclaim is true this game.
Hint: all the roleclaims this game are not true.
Rolecop somewhat equals role*blocker*
That's like saying a Tracker equals a Gunsmith.
Thor, what do you think of Cyan today?
1) The majority of his posts are Day 1. When claims started coming out and the puzzle actually started unfolding, Cyan cooled down big time. Posting levels decreasing is not a major deal because Day 1 was huge, long, etc. The problem is that all of the fire that Cyan had sort of burned out completely, due apparently to the Day 1 lynch. I don't find a ****ty first day that ends with a scum lynch to be something that completely wrecks morale, but his Cyouni push in later days had no comparison to his other pushes, and I think that may be because of scum fatigue.
2) Day 1 Pushes: Iso (chainsawing Thor), DYH (chainsawing Thor), KoL (chainsawing Thor). He consistently finds KoL and I scummy, but doesn't attack Fate early-game (why? it's not like he was putting out a ton more content than we were at that moment). He ends up on both Fate wagons, but both times also as a late addition and his hop is inconsistent with his thought process towards Fate. The first time he votes Fate, there are plenty of other options on stronger stated scumreads. Why vote Fate in that particular time unless he was distancing with his buddy? Second Fate vote is right when Fate is going to be lynched when Cyan goes "well maybe I'm wrong but if Fate flips scum then that day was just lucky". To me, that reads as an attempt to discredit those on the Fate wagon since him and his buddy didn't partake too much in the scumlynch Day 1; it also seems like an unnatural flip from his play before.
3) Cyan buddying up to the MTGSers in the way that he did seemed a bit sketchy, but sketchier were his attacks on KoL and I while skipping over Fate, who was also a lazy low content poster at the time. If I remember properly, DYH even brought up that Cyan was giving the MSers more slack than he was expecting him to; I think that's because both of his buddies were in the ms crew and he would rather focus on the mtgs group instead of the ms one.
4) His push on Thor; so in case you hadn't noticed, Cyan had Thor as town town town for pretty much the whole game until yesterday. He then sort of sets up for the whole "one of Thor/DYH is scum" dichotomy so that he can lynch DYH one day and then bus his buddy the next. He also never seemed like he was moving towards voting Thor at any time during his play yesterday, and thanking DYH for catching Thorscum seems like an odd thing to do as town because he caught Thorscum as well.
@DYH: On Day 1, you heavily implied that you were some kind of town power role. At this point, I'm having a VERY difficult time seeing what that could be. Please tell us your role.
Of course, then KoL ends up claiming Doc and Llama Poisoner, and at that point I doubted there was another town power role altogether - at least not a substantial one, so that's why I was skeptical of Iso near the end of Day 1. I probably would have pushed to lynch him had he claimed full cop; something I think you were hinting that you expected him to do. When he claimed Vanilla, I commented in my analysis that I believed he would make that gambit and had 'made the right play' - even if I disagreed that had he been forced to claim at the point when he did it that he would've avoided a lynch, which he seemed to truly believe.
It's also why I pushed for Voxx to claim D2. I found it hard to believe three of us would've been doing the same "take one for the team" play.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
Another post impending...
This post feels like a huuuuuuge overexplanation.
I can't shake the feeling that DYH and Voxx are the 2 remaining scum. This would require some extremely savvy scum play on Voxx' part, but it seems possible.
I want to go back and read Voxx D1 to see if it's believable that he gun-checked DYH.
I just really feel like we're getting set up here. I hate it when someone has a scum investigation result in lynch or lose.
I'd totally consider lynching DYH if he was on the table. But this is what that's up against.
*Voxxicus' words seems to be Town-motivated (if not particularly accurate). I'll even buy the 40-45% desCoures-scum line as trying to justify a lynch he knows is bad but has to proceed with anyway (because I'm bad at Mafia and don't consider that damning).
*More importantly, the Gunsmith claim was somewhat well-executed.
*Voxxicus and Cyan have denied the existence of a role that can fabricate a negative result to a Gunsmith.
*Thor's flailing looks like it comes from scum.
Thor gets lynched, flips scum.
Voxx gets killed overnight.
Likely no lynch following day*.
I get killed overnight.
You/Vi/Nacho are the remaining three.
*although this point is debatable if the thought is scum are "underpowered". Do they potentially have a tough guy? Seems unlikely with a 2-shot vig in the equation already.
We should be getting as much detail into the thread as possible while there are four townies alive instead of two or three for discussion.
Would you be less paranoid if I had just answered, "I'm not a power role" and left it at that? I doubt it. It's likely the same feeling I had about the Hobbit where I thought Voxx was snowing us. I don't know that anything would have changed my mind there. Fortunately, Seppel killed me and kept me from screwing it up for the town.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
I haven't run through all the potential ramifications, but it's probably worth discussing, nonetheless. Could help give confidence in reads - or at least reduce the conspiracy theories to a minimum.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
FWIW, I wouldn't No Lynch at four when there's a confirmed innocent.
That's correct, but I wasn't going to bring it up if Voxxicus was agreed to be Town.
...of course, you claiming vanilla lessens the fun WIFOM potential a fair bit.
I don't think No Lynch is a good play Today.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
From Thor-scum's point of view--
*Kill Voxxicus. Get lynched the next Day. Burn kill on confTown DYH. End result is 3P LyLo. (This is safest, therefore most probable.)
*Kill DYH. Voxxicus vs. Thor exists the next Day, but Voxxicus has another investigation on his side to be taken into account. (You know you're awesome when you mislynch someone who has guilties on your whole team in LyLo.) This results in 3P LyLo with a confirmed alignment if Thor is lynched.
*Kill one of the fluffballs. Same as above, but with one more confTown. Best case is that Voxxicus gets lynched; worst case is a completely solved 3P LyLo due to DYH/Voxxicus + Voxxicus' second investigation.
Voxxicus-scum's perspective is more interesting because the obvious kill choice is not available to him. However, the second and third scenarios are the same as above, but since all of the investigative results are voided when Voxxicus flips scum the end result is pretty much always 3P LyLo.
The alternative is to not No Lynch in the first place and go into 4P LyLo with a confirmed innocent, which is basically 3P LyLo without hair-trigger quickhammers.
But most importantly, this is only really worth considering if there's a serious question of Voxxicus being scum. I'd like to appeal to game balance - right now there's evidence of a Doctor and a Vig, versus a Role Cop. Would it make sense for Town to have no other roles in this game? It seems the Role Cop is overkill for just those two Town roles.
And no, I don't think Doc/Vig vs. only Role Cop makes much sense. Roleblocker, sure. Role cop? Meh. Add gunsmith in the place of a cop where the Vig can be a false positive and I think the balance is better. Especially considering a 2-shot Vig is rare here on MTGS; it's generally 1-shot or full. Not to mention the day/poisoning part.
Actually, I can totally imagine Zionite tapping his fingers together in a sinister manner going, "How funny would it be if the gunsmith checks the vig and he claims a two-shot day poisoner? Yeah, that'll never fly here." /evillaugh
I take it tough guys are uncommon on MS?
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
Mafia Vigs are uncommon enough that they cause a stir when they appear, and it's pretty much always in Themes. (I don't think Mafia Vig is disallowed in Normal games, but you wouldn't see one in a game this size.)
(I also thought we co-opted the Tough Guy name to replace Bulletproof Godfather. The world needs to revolve more around us.)
I don't think it matters if you lynch me, but...
I would put him as third most likely scumbuddy to Voxx, behind Vi and DYH.
I think DYH makes a lot of sense considering the way of the votes, and also that Voxx really had no logic behind a DYH investigation considering the pushes he'd made. That said, I'll admit if *I* was a fakeclaiming cop I'd probably want to get a town on my side with a false clear, and that's my only bugaboo there, but I'd want to lynch him most after the Voxx scum lynch.
@Everyone else - At least with the way the scores are tabulated this hurts me less than all of you. But, seriously, this is dumb. If you want to buy his claim let's at least do a massclaim. Because apparently we *all* believe that scum have no roleblocker, And, y'know, if there's even another town PR it makes how thi sis fake look *way* more likely.
Use your brains, don't just derp lynch because 'hey, guy claimed cop, hurrrr, shut down brain functions.'
@Vi - okay, so you think the Vig/Gunsmith adds validity...but we also don't believe scum have a roleblocker, because otherwise, y'know, they would have ROLEBLOCKED THE "COP".
So...WHAT IS THE OTHER SCUM ROLE?
Because if it's a GF then what you are saying is that the Cop is actually basically almost as likely to mislynch the Vig as it is to even find a scum.
Think about that and get back to me with your balance talk.
I'm curious.
The setup doesn't make sense with the Gunsmith, people.
It is a fake claim.
vs.
Gunsmith/Doc/2-shot Vig
But, hey, y'know what does look okay? Goon/Goon/Rolecop vs. Doc/Vig/Something
Oooooh!
Point holds.
And regardless of his alignment, Thor makes a good point about the role balance in this game. It is simply not believable that the scum setup is rolecop/goon/goon. Maybe it could be rolecop/goon/godfather, but even that seems weak against 'Cop/Doc/Multi-shot Vig'(even though the Cop could accidentally out the Vig). Presumably, the scum have a Godfather.
The only problem with no lynching is that, if Voxx is scum running a gambit, he will just continue to do so by faking an investigation on 'random person that doesn't get NKed'.
We could mitigate this by choosing his target for him in advance. If the scum kill that person, all the better. Of course, if Voxx is lying, he could just name that person as scum anyway.
Meh. I can't shake the fear that we're being played here, but I can't find enough evidence to comfortably convince myself that this is what is happening.
@Voxx: Why did you choose to investigate DYH N1? Why did you choose Thor N2?
Whoop-de-doo, the game is still down to a choice between me and Voxx.
The only way it remotely makes sense is if you believe BOTH of the following;
1. Voxx is town and I am scum.
2. There is no Godfather scum role.
If you believe both of those then a no kill makes sense.
If you don't, I fail to see how it helps.
Unless people want to convince me I'm scum and the scum team has a roleblocker and we just decided to let Voxx do what he did.
Because if there is another PR then I think people will note that Voxx is lying.
I think if anyone had anything to claim, they would have done so by now.
Cyan, do tell what would result in a false negative on scum.
And, I'll repeat, what you're seeing from Thor is scum flailing.
If it exists I bet I was scum.
I mean, seriously, what magic has Voxx done where he is auto-believed?
The game could have a Framer, though this would be surprising. The scum have to have SOMETHING going for them, though. But if they have a Framer, they would have had to get somewhat lucky on Thor getting investigated. It's more likely that they have a Godfather, and that just isn't Thor.
It is absolutely possible that Voxx and DYH are the two remaining scum, and that this was carefully orchestrated. DYH's post that I deemed an over-explanation even supports this, IMO, because it shows that, if he is scum, the scum likely wouldn't think that the town has a traditional Cop, based on having a Doc and a Vig. But I don't think there is enough evidence to make this case, so ultimately we'll just have to believe Voxx and lynch Thor.
How do we know the Gunsmith claim is true?
We don't...but we presume scum have a Godfather.
Why?
Because they didn't roleblock or kill the Gunsmith.
Which they also wouldn't do if the Gunsmith was scum heading for a lylo mislynch.
...true.
So, why lynch me then?
Because there is a Godfather.
Derpa-derpy-day.
Anyone want to guess why there is no conversation and everyone is happy lynching Thor?
It's because I'm scum and this is part of our brilliant plan!
Oh...wait, no, it's the other one, the one where I don't have team mates and therefore am the lone voice of dissent.
Check.
Unless Cyan is willing to explain how he went from immediately swallowing Voxxicus' result (1239, 1243) to saying that he hates LyLo Guilties and extreme caution should be used around them (1270 and following).
Cyan's arguments for Voxxicus+DYH-scum all have to do with DYH and the possibility of a false negative - which have nothing to do with Voxxicus, his claim, and his claimed incriminating result on Thor. I don't know why Cyan is placing such emphasis on a Voxxicus+DYH scumteam in particular; Voxxicus-scum does not imply DYH-scum and vice versa.
Similarly, I can't see DYH being scum with Thor. His attitude toward Thor hasn't seemed manufactured at all(especially his posts toward the start of Day 2).
In my mind, either Voxx and DYH are both scum, or, neither of them is.
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Vote: Thor665 (L-2)
One thing that needs to be addressed today but my case on you isn't one of them...?
Let's go too far now.
Go back and tell me what you find!
I'm giving you a chance! If a hypothetical Voxx-scum tried to fakeclaim a guilty on me I would be ripping everyone apart right now and I'd expect you to do the same. So, talk to me. Why is Cyan town?