Name: Fate/Zero Mafia
Complexity: Varies
Misc: Participate in the Fourth Holy Grail War - a deadly battle royale where the prize is the Holy Grail, a chalice able to grant any wish.
I actually have two setups able to run. The first is a Basic-level low complexity setup, with very little power roles and an emphasis on behavior. The second is a more medium complexity setup similar to Hobbit Mafia. I'll poll the players once this game goes up on signups.
Reviewer: Gentleman Johnny
Edit: The medium-complexity setup is 13 players, while the Basic is 12 players. Is this okay?
I believe we still have a hard limit of 12 players for Minis, but the 13 player setup could probably go in the Normal queue (assuming it fits the criteria). This would obviously mean you'd have to choose which one to run (or why not both!)
I believe we still have a hard limit of 12 players for Minis, but the 13 player setup could probably go in the Normal queue (assuming it fits the criteria). This would obviously mean you'd have to choose which one to run (or why not both!)
Are you sure I can't let a 13-player Mini go through? Does it have to be a Normal? :/
Well the Mini list has a max size of 12 for a reason, and that's been discussed before and maintained. If we allow one Mini to be 13 players, we pretty much have to let any Mini be 13 players. The Normal queue isn't exactly long though.
Final Fantasy 3 Mafia
13-18 Players (It scales!)
Just barely a Specialty.
Features!
• No more HP from FF2 mafia, just a simple lynch threshold, but with a twist -- votes stick at the end of a day.
• Instead of upgrading stats at night, everyone has a skill tree that unlocks new night abilities!
• Over 50 abilities!
Final Fantasy 3 Mafia
13-18 Players (It scales!)
Just barely a Specialty.
Features!
• No more HP from FF2 mafia, just a simple lynch threshold, but with a twist -- votes stick at the end of a day.
• Instead of upgrading stats at night, everyone has a skill tree that unlocks new night abilities!
• Over 50 abilities!
Seppel, my honeybunny, we don't accept specialities any more.
If you want to enter a game that's more complex than normal (and is not a mini), PCQ is the place for your set-up.
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
I have a Specialty ready since 2013, but never had the guts to run it. I would love to give life to it now!
Should I then queue it in the PCQ? It's a 21-player Europa Universalis-based game, inspired in Zindabad's concept of roles that fit either town of scum.
I don't have a reviewer though. Does anybody want to help me out? :3
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I have set-ups for all 5 scenarios, just need my reviewer(s).:smileup: And it's not really a rush to be officially put on the list. Iso's then ZDS's would put me probably half a year from now.
Updated! (I didn't add Megiddo and Brinatoo to the list yet. I'll add you guys once you have set-up written and at least under a review process.)
Still One Piece/Overwatch Mafia/Other based on votes at sign-up. Proph is the reviewer and we've balanced 14-16 player. Working on 17/18 but will be done soon.
Vaimes requested replacement (he did indicate in the sign-ups that should he still be alive in the game past a certain date he would need to be replaced)
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I've completed exploratory design on Annorax's Bastard Mod Mafia II and would like a volunteer to review and help me balance it, aiming for a PCQ or other slot once MU4 is finished.
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Hey all... I'm retired, not dead. Check out what I'm doing these days (and beg me to come back if you want):
Looks like we're a little short on Minis, at the moment.
Please sign Iso & Annorax up for Janken Mafia, a Mini game for 9 players involving a simple core mechanic - at the beginning of the Day, each player secretly chooses Paper, Scissors, or Rock and informs the Host of their choice.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Sign me up for Team Fortress 2 Mafia, Micro Edition.
Designed by Megiddo, this is an open setup that will require you to choose specific attributes about your role at the beginning of the game. It's more fun than it sounds.
Mind Screw Salvation Mafia has ended in a Serial Killer victory.
Darth Melvin failed to pick up his role PM and was replaced.
TappingStones was modkilled with prejudice for unsportsmanlike conduct to his fellow players coupled with being unwilling to accept and abide by a moderator decision.
Jobie requested replacement.
imabusinessman requested replacement and was modkilled because a replacement could not be found.
Leukovirus requested replacement and was modkilled because a replacement could not be found.
tomsloger was modkilled for a game-specific rule violation (using non-bolded red text without permission).
RobRoy requested replacement.
Gentleman Johnny was modkilled for quoting private communication.
Necarg requested replacement and was modkilled because a replacement could not be found.
hansanator requested replacement and was modkilled because a replacement could not be found.
Thanks to Ecophagy and CitricBase for replacing in, and to tomsloger for replacing back in after his death. Also thanks to Iso and HookerPunch for being players while nominally on the replacement list.
Star Trek: Myriad Universes IV has ended in a Cythare, Serial Killer victory.
Ghosting (Nakamura) was denied signup due to probation status and a potentially game-ruining incident in one of my previous games.
Necarg was replaced for inactivity.
Yomako requested replacement.
Rhand was replaced for inactivity.
DotArchon was replaced for inactivity.
Brinatoo requested replacement, but died before being replaced.
Wheat_Grinder was replaced for inactivity (explained by a mod error with the PM), was replaced by Seppel, who was himself replaced by Wheat_Grinder returning to the game.
Seppel replaced in & was replaced out for inactivity (may not have seen the PM)
TappingStones was disqualified (modkill pre-empted by lynch) for severe unsporting conduct including multiple troll infractions (and a forum suspension triggered by those infractions) in the game thread. My understanding is he was modkilled in Mind Screw at roughly the same time for the same issues, so rather than a probation request, I'm just going to come right out and say Blacklist requested.
Zinger2099 was modkilled for inactivity (no replacement available.)
Killjoy was modkilled for inactivity (no replacement available.)
I'm sure many of you have noticed that the queues for both Minis and Normals are dangerously short. I'd like to run a PCQ-style open entry thing (separately for each queue) where people submit setups, we work together to get them built and reviewed, winners chosen by a combination of popular vote and judge panel, with all the games added to the respective queues with winners at the top. I believe this is a good way to encourage people to turn their ideas into completed games, spread cooperation, and generate some hype: all of which we sorely need.
Please put me on the Normal queue:
Name: Mistborn Mafia
Complexity: Low
Size: 16
Misc: Meant to be a "Normal" normal, with no tricky gimmicks, just some mildly flavorful roles. Instead of being based off of the Wax and Wayne series, this is going to be based off of the original trilogy (Final Empire, Well of Ascension, Hero of Ages) and as such will contain spoilers for the books.
Experiment #3 - Big Red Button Mafia has ended with a mafia victory.
King_Deekus (who's a CropCircles sockpuppet, and shall he never cross me again) and Megiddo were forcibly replaced. kpaca wasn't technically forcibly replaced, but he would have been had the game not killed him, and thus belongs in this category too.
sign me up to host Palace Guard Mafia
a micro for 6 players.
1 king - no abilities but Very Important for the survival of the kingdom
4 palace guards - know the identity of the king. no other abilities.
1 assassin - one kill that can be used at any time, even after their lynch.
assassin wins if the king dies
There is no night.
I will institute a deadline only if necessary.
setup has been run before (though not here)
edit: flavor is kirby's dreamland
which is perhaps a more compelling name for the game.
It has been presented that the best odds for a town win is to merely quick lynch every day having no other discussion. This effectively allows the kingdom to use its size to its advantage without exposing its information. Do not discuss who is scummy or why. Never scum hunt. That way info is zero. Uninformed scum remains uninformed. Then use your size by group voting/lynching anyone once they get one vote on them. Get every lynch asap! Whilst the assassin(s) can still win with this play, it becomes much more a random coin flip than a calculated decision of who they should blow up.
With this strategy in play, the assassin's best chance of winning is to survive as long as possible to reduce the number of kill choices, however, if they are selected for a lynch at any time, it would be distinctly anti-town to plea their innocence and argue against the lynch, as the optimal town play is to merely lynch and be lynched silently without giving out any information at all.
This strategy is difficult to implement, mostly due to the fact that it cannot be discussed without lowering its effectiveness (as discussing its validity puts out information the assassin wants). However, it still allows the town a distinct advantage and turns the game into little more than a lottery.
It has been presented that the best odds for a town win is to merely quick lynch every day having no other discussion. This effectively allows the kingdom to use its size to its advantage without exposing its information. Do not discuss who is scummy or why. Never scum hunt. That way info is zero. Uninformed scum remains uninformed. Then use your size by group voting/lynching anyone once they get one vote on them. Get every lynch asap! Whilst the assassin(s) can still win with this play, it becomes much more a random coin flip than a calculated decision of who they should blow up.
With this strategy in play, the assassin's best chance of winning is to survive as long as possible to reduce the number of kill choices, however, if they are selected for a lynch at any time, it would be distinctly anti-town to plea their innocence and argue against the lynch, as the optimal town play is to merely lynch and be lynched silently without giving out any information at all.
This strategy is difficult to implement, mostly due to the fact that it cannot be discussed without lowering its effectiveness (as discussing its validity puts out information the assassin wants). However, it still allows the town a distinct advantage and turns the game into little more than a lottery.
It's only optimal in one sense though.
The only thing this guarantees is that in a 1000 games played you probably win 600-700 games. And sure if I cared about winning the majority of games played this would be an ok solution. But I care about winning each game I play not about a majority of them. Additionally I care about my own enjoyment and this is akin to putting my money in a slot machine and pulling the lever, its just flipping coins. That isn't very fun or even interesting. I would also argue that very good players this becomes extremely non-optimal since they can win much higher percentages of their games than that. Finally, because this requires a vast amount of games before results would start to settle this is not very optimal on a game by game basis, I am not guaranteeing victory ever.
So, yes the odds are probably pretty good for a large sample size, but with me and most mafia players only playing like IDK 10 games a year at most is it really that optimal?
Just like poker strategy where yes there is some "Optimal play" to not looking at cards and betting on what's only on the table, but you are going to be taken for everything you own by a player that understands what they are doing with more information of their own cards.
DV, I'm not sure you understand what an optimal strategy is. It's just a strategy that wins the most number of games (proportionally) than any other strategy, it doesn't have to be 100% win rate. You don't need a large sample size for this strategy either as you can calculate the probability of winning pretty easily (assuming the assassin only shoots after they get lynched, and that the king will never be lynched, probability of Town victory is the odds of the assassin being lynched each day and NOT hitting the King with his shot). Not that I think that this would be fun, but it should have a better chance of winning than actually playing the game.
I also don't think even the bast Mafia players can maintain a win rate >70%, nor do I think that not looking at your cards in poker could be even close to optimal.
DV, I'm not sure you understand what an optimal strategy is. It's just a strategy that wins the most number of games (proportionally) than any other strategy, it doesn't have to be 100% win rate. You don't need a large sample size for this strategy either as you can calculate the probability of winning pretty easily (assuming the assassin only shoots after they get lynched, and that the king will never be lynched, probability of Town victory is the odds of the assassin being lynched each day and NOT hitting the King with his shot). Not that I think that this would be fun, but it should have a better chance of winning than actually playing the game.
I also don't think even the bast Mafia players can maintain a win rate >70%, nor do I think that not looking at your cards in poker could be even close to optimal.
I just realized that this was about Tom's game set up.
In regards to Poker if everyone else is playing optimally and betting correctly/folding correctly not looking at your hand can bring you down to a coin flip versus one other person if you are playing the game correctly as well. In some ways it is optimal to not look at your hand, but that doesn't really matter here.
My problem with this is that you could make that statement versus any game of mafia. The town out number the mafia so the town should simply rush to lynch and call it a day. "Optimally" they should win more than they lose. This is only the optimal play in the long run, it is not the optimal play in the short run. The optimal play is to figure out who the scum is day one and lynch them in Tom's set up. I don't feel like doing the math but I don't think that the play suggested really gets past a 50-50 in a one game set. Actually, I'm also dead sure its worse than a 50-50. 14% chance to lynch the king and the assassin day one and the percentage stays the same and then the assassin gets a hail Mary shot at the end with a higher percentage of hitting the king. So, no this isn't the optimal play in a lot of ways. You're playing with a less than 50% chance to win.
so should i put up a signup thread?
ive never done this before.
i just saw no micros in the queue and i liked this idea.
edit: i suppose i should wait til otg2 fills at least.
Hi
Mafia secretaries (me and Tordeck) take care of launching the sign-ups, so you'll get a PM from one of us when it's your turn (though I'd assume it's quite soon, considering that there's no other Micro's on the queue.)
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
In regards to Poker if everyone else is playing optimally and betting correctly/folding correctly not looking at your hand can bring you down to a coin flip versus one other person if you are playing the game correctly as well. In some ways it is optimal to not look at your hand, but that doesn't really matter here.
I don't think you can model it as a coin flip since the number of variables in poker is pretty high. If someone isn't looking at their cards, you just play risk-averse and only bet when you have a decent hand. If the non-looker is just matching on every hand he'll bleed out pretty fast.
Quote from DV »
My problem with this is that you could make that statement versus any game of mafia. The town out number the mafia so the town should simply rush to lynch and call it a day. "Optimally" they should win more than they lose. This is only the optimal play in the long run, it is not the optimal play in the short run. The optimal play is to figure out who the scum is day one and lynch them in Tom's set up. I don't feel like doing the math but I don't think that the play suggested really gets past a 50-50 in a one game set. Actually, I'm also dead sure its worse than a 50-50. 14% chance to lynch the king and the assassin day one and the percentage stays the same and then the assassin gets a hail Mary shot at the end with a higher percentage of hitting the king. So, no this isn't the optimal play in a lot of ways. You're playing with a less than 50% chance to win.
In a regular (pure vanilla) game of mafia, if there are N players and square root N of them are mafia members (e.g. a 16 player game with a 4-man mafia team), with pure random lynching and Night killing (mafia won't kill other mafia at Night), each side has a roughly 50/50 chance to win (source). You can't really call this optimal because it's incredibly difficult to model the interaction within the game (and power roles, although studies exist looking at games with one Cop), but a 50/50 chance of winning doesn't make it a very strong strategy and you could fairly easily argue that actually playing the game properly improves the odds of a correct lynch above pure random.
Also, if a strategy is optimal it must be optimal in all games, not just in the long run (unless of course the strategy takes information from previous games, but that's not the case here).
Tom's game is obviously very different, and I did actually run through the maths and I think it comes to about 54% likelihood of Town victory, which isn't actually as high as I was expecting. So it's not a particularly powerful strategy.
In regards to Poker if everyone else is playing optimally and betting correctly/folding correctly not looking at your hand can bring you down to a coin flip versus one other person if you are playing the game correctly as well. In some ways it is optimal to not look at your hand, but that doesn't really matter here.
I don't think you can model it as a coin flip since the number of variables in poker is pretty high. If someone isn't looking at their cards, you just play risk-averse and only bet when you have a decent hand. If the non-looker is just matching on every hand he'll bleed out pretty fast.
Quote from DV »
My problem with this is that you could make that statement versus any game of mafia. The town out number the mafia so the town should simply rush to lynch and call it a day. "Optimally" they should win more than they lose. This is only the optimal play in the long run, it is not the optimal play in the short run. The optimal play is to figure out who the scum is day one and lynch them in Tom's set up. I don't feel like doing the math but I don't think that the play suggested really gets past a 50-50 in a one game set. Actually, I'm also dead sure its worse than a 50-50. 14% chance to lynch the king and the assassin day one and the percentage stays the same and then the assassin gets a hail Mary shot at the end with a higher percentage of hitting the king. So, no this isn't the optimal play in a lot of ways. You're playing with a less than 50% chance to win.
In a regular (pure vanilla) game of mafia, if there are N players and square root N of them are mafia members (e.g. a 16 player game with a 4-man mafia team), with pure random lynching and Night killing (mafia won't kill other mafia at Night), each side has a roughly 50/50 chance to win (source). You can't really call this optimal because it's incredibly difficult to model the interaction within the game (and power roles, although studies exist looking at games with one Cop), but a 50/50 chance of winning doesn't make it a very strong strategy and you could fairly easily argue that actually playing the game properly improves the odds of a correct lynch above pure random.
Also, if a strategy is optimal it must be optimal in all games, not just in the long run (unless of course the strategy takes information from previous games, but that's not the case here).
Tom's game is obviously very different, and I did actually run through the maths and I think it comes to about 54% likelihood of Town victory, which isn't actually as high as I was expecting. So it's not a particularly powerful strategy.
In what world does the math come out to 54%. Its like a 45% by my mental math guess. Its a 50-50 every time for the town to either lynch the King or the Assassin and then the assassin gets a better percentage shot to possibly hit the king again. How would that ever result in a positive percent win for the town?
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Name: Fate/Zero Mafia
Complexity: Varies
Misc: Participate in the Fourth Holy Grail War - a deadly battle royale where the prize is the Holy Grail, a chalice able to grant any wish.
I actually have two setups able to run. The first is a Basic-level low complexity setup, with very little power roles and an emphasis on behavior. The second is a more medium complexity setup similar to Hobbit Mafia. I'll poll the players once this game goes up on signups.
Reviewer: Gentleman Johnny
Edit: The medium-complexity setup is 13 players, while the Basic is 12 players. Is this okay?
I'll think about what I want to do with the setup, then.
Final Fantasy 3 Mafia
13-18 Players (It scales!)
Just barely a Specialty.
Features!
• No more HP from FF2 mafia, just a simple lynch threshold, but with a twist -- votes stick at the end of a day.
• Instead of upgrading stats at night, everyone has a skill tree that unlocks new night abilities!
• Over 50 abilities!
Seppel, my honeybunny, we don't accept specialities any more.
If you want to enter a game that's more complex than normal (and is not a mini), PCQ is the place for your set-up.
Should I then queue it in the PCQ? It's a 21-player Europa Universalis-based game, inspired in Zindabad's concept of roles that fit either town of scum.
I don't have a reviewer though. Does anybody want to help me out? :3
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Post again here, when you know what you want to do with your games.
Vaimes requested replacement (he did indicate in the sign-ups that should he still be alive in the game past a certain date he would need to be replaced)
Atogaholic replaced in.
Please add me to the end of the mini queue for:
Off the Grid 2 - Now with Flavour!
Hardwood_Paneling and Jobie requested replacement.
Dragon_Reign was forcibly replaced after not acknowledging receipt of his role PM.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
https://twitch.tv/annorax10 (classic retro speedruns & occasional MTGO/MTGA screwaround streams)
https://twitch.tv/SwiftorCasino (yes, my team and I run live dealer games for the baldman using his channel points as chips)
Please sign Iso & Annorax up for Janken Mafia, a Mini game for 9 players involving a simple core mechanic - at the beginning of the Day, each player secretly chooses Paper, Scissors, or Rock and informs the Host of their choice.
What happens next?
Sign up and find out.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I may host another Micro in a bit, depending on if Megiddo lets me use his setup.
Off the Grid 2 - Now with Flavour!
Designed by Megiddo, this is an open setup that will require you to choose specific attributes about your role at the beginning of the game. It's more fun than it sounds.
You can choose any attribute you want, apart from viewmodel fov (/injoke)
mallorean_thug was replaced by not_a_gimmick (requested)
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Could work a couple of more slots in if you want this pushed into the Mini list.
Thanks to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sigpic.
Spider-Man Mafia 3 (Off-Site: NGA)
Metroid Mafia (Off-Site: Mafia Universe)
Darth Melvin failed to pick up his role PM and was replaced.
TappingStones was modkilled with prejudice for unsportsmanlike conduct to his fellow players coupled with being unwilling to accept and abide by a moderator decision.
Jobie requested replacement.
imabusinessman requested replacement and was modkilled because a replacement could not be found.
Leukovirus requested replacement and was modkilled because a replacement could not be found.
tomsloger was modkilled for a game-specific rule violation (using non-bolded red text without permission).
RobRoy requested replacement.
Gentleman Johnny was modkilled for quoting private communication.
Necarg requested replacement and was modkilled because a replacement could not be found.
hansanator requested replacement and was modkilled because a replacement could not be found.
Thanks to Ecophagy and CitricBase for replacing in, and to tomsloger for replacing back in after his death. Also thanks to Iso and HookerPunch for being players while nominally on the replacement list.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
Though I can relate to being on the recieving end of something like the red text one...
Thanks to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sigpic.
Spider-Man Mafia 3 (Off-Site: NGA)
Metroid Mafia (Off-Site: Mafia Universe)
And things have been updated.
Ghosting (Nakamura) was denied signup due to probation status and a potentially game-ruining incident in one of my previous games.
Necarg was replaced for inactivity.
Yomako requested replacement.
Rhand was replaced for inactivity.
DotArchon was replaced for inactivity.
Brinatoo requested replacement, but died before being replaced.
Wheat_Grinder was replaced for inactivity (explained by a mod error with the PM), was replaced by Seppel, who was himself replaced by Wheat_Grinder returning to the game.
Seppel replaced in & was replaced out for inactivity (may not have seen the PM)
TappingStones was disqualified (modkill pre-empted by lynch) for severe unsporting conduct including multiple troll infractions (and a forum suspension triggered by those infractions) in the game thread. My understanding is he was modkilled in Mind Screw at roughly the same time for the same issues, so rather than a probation request, I'm just going to come right out and say Blacklist requested.
Zinger2099 was modkilled for inactivity (no replacement available.)
Killjoy was modkilled for inactivity (no replacement available.)
https://twitch.tv/annorax10 (classic retro speedruns & occasional MTGO/MTGA screwaround streams)
https://twitch.tv/SwiftorCasino (yes, my team and I run live dealer games for the baldman using his channel points as chips)
The Family
I was thinking of inventorying reviewer/blacklist/probation lists and doing some similar updating on this site.
I've been maintaining the hosting lists and they are all up-to-date.
Other than that, not much has happened here...
EDIT: Haven't heard from anyone yet, if you're worried about a short mini queue this might be a good game to fill it :^)
Please put me on the Normal queue:
Name: Mistborn Mafia
Complexity: Low
Size: 16
Misc: Meant to be a "Normal" normal, with no tricky gimmicks, just some mildly flavorful roles. Instead of being based off of the Wax and Wayne series, this is going to be based off of the original trilogy (Final Empire, Well of Ascension, Hero of Ages) and as such will contain spoilers for the books.
EDIT: Ecophagy has reviewed the setup.
King_Deekus (who's a CropCircles sockpuppet, and shall he never cross me again) and Megiddo were forcibly replaced. kpaca wasn't technically forcibly replaced, but he would have been had the game not killed him, and thus belongs in this category too.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
a micro for 6 players.
4 palace guards - know the identity of the king. no other abilities.
1 assassin - one kill that can be used at any time, even after their lynch.
assassin wins if the king dies
There is no night.
I will institute a deadline only if necessary.
setup has been run before (though not here)
edit: flavor is kirby's dreamland
which is perhaps a more compelling name for the game.
nothing i guess.
It's only optimal in one sense though.
The only thing this guarantees is that in a 1000 games played you probably win 600-700 games. And sure if I cared about winning the majority of games played this would be an ok solution. But I care about winning each game I play not about a majority of them. Additionally I care about my own enjoyment and this is akin to putting my money in a slot machine and pulling the lever, its just flipping coins. That isn't very fun or even interesting. I would also argue that very good players this becomes extremely non-optimal since they can win much higher percentages of their games than that. Finally, because this requires a vast amount of games before results would start to settle this is not very optimal on a game by game basis, I am not guaranteeing victory ever.
So, yes the odds are probably pretty good for a large sample size, but with me and most mafia players only playing like IDK 10 games a year at most is it really that optimal?
Just like poker strategy where yes there is some "Optimal play" to not looking at cards and betting on what's only on the table, but you are going to be taken for everything you own by a player that understands what they are doing with more information of their own cards.
ive never done this before.
i just saw no micros in the queue and i liked this idea.
edit: i suppose i should wait til otg2 fills at least.
I also don't think even the bast Mafia players can maintain a win rate >70%, nor do I think that not looking at your cards in poker could be even close to optimal.
I just realized that this was about Tom's game set up.
In regards to Poker if everyone else is playing optimally and betting correctly/folding correctly not looking at your hand can bring you down to a coin flip versus one other person if you are playing the game correctly as well. In some ways it is optimal to not look at your hand, but that doesn't really matter here.
My problem with this is that you could make that statement versus any game of mafia. The town out number the mafia so the town should simply rush to lynch and call it a day. "Optimally" they should win more than they lose. This is only the optimal play in the long run, it is not the optimal play in the short run. The optimal play is to figure out who the scum is day one and lynch them in Tom's set up. I don't feel like doing the math but I don't think that the play suggested really gets past a 50-50 in a one game set. Actually, I'm also dead sure its worse than a 50-50. 14% chance to lynch the king and the assassin day one and the percentage stays the same and then the assassin gets a hail Mary shot at the end with a higher percentage of hitting the king. So, no this isn't the optimal play in a lot of ways. You're playing with a less than 50% chance to win.
Hi
Mafia secretaries (me and Tordeck) take care of launching the sign-ups, so you'll get a PM from one of us when it's your turn (though I'd assume it's quite soon, considering that there's no other Micro's on the queue.)
I don't think you can model it as a coin flip since the number of variables in poker is pretty high. If someone isn't looking at their cards, you just play risk-averse and only bet when you have a decent hand. If the non-looker is just matching on every hand he'll bleed out pretty fast.
In a regular (pure vanilla) game of mafia, if there are N players and square root N of them are mafia members (e.g. a 16 player game with a 4-man mafia team), with pure random lynching and Night killing (mafia won't kill other mafia at Night), each side has a roughly 50/50 chance to win (source). You can't really call this optimal because it's incredibly difficult to model the interaction within the game (and power roles, although studies exist looking at games with one Cop), but a 50/50 chance of winning doesn't make it a very strong strategy and you could fairly easily argue that actually playing the game properly improves the odds of a correct lynch above pure random.
Also, if a strategy is optimal it must be optimal in all games, not just in the long run (unless of course the strategy takes information from previous games, but that's not the case here).
Tom's game is obviously very different, and I did actually run through the maths and I think it comes to about 54% likelihood of Town victory, which isn't actually as high as I was expecting. So it's not a particularly powerful strategy.
In what world does the math come out to 54%. Its like a 45% by my mental math guess. Its a 50-50 every time for the town to either lynch the King or the Assassin and then the assassin gets a better percentage shot to possibly hit the king again. How would that ever result in a positive percent win for the town?