I predicted that MTG~DDS would flip town and have some sort of mention of hunting/fighting/fearing retribution from Garruk in his flavor text.
Yes, I was counter-flavorgaming and I was right about [Liliana] being town.
So... why didn't you mention that to try stopping what you apparently predicited was going to be a mislynch?
I didn't have anything more than a strong hunch to go by and I was trying to get more info out of MTG~DDS first, but he ruined that by getting himself modkilled in the process. I did make mention of that while he was still alive.
I was pretty sure I was going to be tonights NK and I think TMCT sensed that too.
I predicted that you'd be the NK last night.
As long as you and TMCT make smart decisions tonight, we still have a chance at this.
(Definitely do NOT declare what you're going to do in advance--TMCT too!)
I had almost written off MTG~DDS as town simply because I was so suspicious of some people on his wagon, now I don't know what to think anymore. All I know is that I'm terrible at this game. (Just go read my last one--it's finally done with.) Do what you guys think is best.
Oh Maokun, you beautiful, beautiful, insane fool! You should have chosen a different character for your falseclaim!
I am Garruk - [Town Vanilla].
No relentless, wildspeaker, veil-cursed, primal hunter, whatever. Just Garruk. (Which struck me as odd--the picture is the full-body portrait from the Veil-Cursed side.)
My only power is my ability to vote.
Flavor: I've been tracking Liliana, gathering my strength and finding the right time to pay her back for what she did to me. I caught her scent emanating from this village. Now is the time for my revenge...
I didn't want to claim yet because I was waiting to see what MTG~DDS would flip. (If someone is supposed to be your buddy, they seem to turn up bad, or if they are your "sworn enemy" they'll invariably turn up on your side.)
Mao might be a bomb, but Mao is definitely NOT Garruk.
I'm willing to take the hit if Maokun is a bomb. Just remember me fondly at the funeral...
Two Garruks in play? Legendary rule takes effect! KABOOM!
Just, don't fully decide on your night action yet. If you announce what you are doing beforehand, it makes it much easier for the scum to plan their actions.
Also, I think y'all are being unnecessarily mean to players, scum or not. Poor DDS has got nothing but cold dismissal and taunts ever since he joined this game. Remember that he joining us actually allowed us to proceed so we owe him that much.
I've only ever been cordial, even when others have been rude and/or obnoxious towards me.
RE: MTG~DDS: The irony is that I'm supposed to be the one hunting Liliana, crying out for retribution!
Looks like he's the last one to check in toDay too.
@MTG~DDS: Do you have anything for us today? Anything at all? I know everybody hates flavorgaming, but did any of your flavor talk about Garruk in any way?
Here are all of my posts in regards to Garruk vs Liliana & MTG~DDS while MTG~DDS was still alive.
Never once did I vote for him.
I didn't want to claim yet because I was waiting to see what MTG~DDS would flip. (If someone is supposed to be your buddy, they seem to turn up bad, or if they are your "sworn enemy" they'll invariably turn up on your side.)
I'm most interested in this one where you said your plan was to sit back and watch what you assumed would be a mislynch so you could confirm your theory on the flavor for... what purpose exactly?
Part one of readthrough. I am basically going to do a readthrough of D3 (jd's death up until Mao lynch. I feel this is the best use of my time and best way to hopefully find scum. Spoilering for convinience. Posts 799-825 are listed here. There are no posts by EtR thus far in there. Mainly iPot (me), Kank, and IB.
Day 3 Interaction and notes.
799: Rhand starts MTG~DDS wagon
800: TMCT goes iPot
801: iPot poor comment: -1
802: TMCT town response.
803: IB votes MTG and FoS’s TMCT (Chainsaw iPot?) +IB/iPot scumteam
804: Wessel votes MTG, interested in the iPot case.
805: Rhand pushing for proactive Wessel. +town points
806: Looks at JD’s suspects: Mao, EtR, and Rhand. “intrigued w/ iPot case”??? odd counter from prev. post. Likes Rhand and EtR town. Investigating Mao. [-Mao/IB team, +IB/EtR]
807: Null
808: Asks for Mao’s reads. (-Mao/IB)
809: Kank posts: **(Did Kank support Wessel or push for lynch???) either way –town for the “I always believed in you comments”. If he pushed the wagon, --town. Curious of ipot case, +ipot/Kank team (coaching by Kank?). Posing lots of questions and really this post is a bunch of fluff overall. Questions IB about Mao wanting JD dead? Did Kank scumslip??? (+IB/Kank). I know the Kank/ipot team doesn’t exist but this post is pretty bad all around. +++scum
810: MTG: In post has EtR/iPot/Maokun team. No rating on IB at all. Too bad he isn’t scum, for that may be indicative of IB.
811: Maokun: Not “that” suspicious of DDS. (Scumbuddy is on the MTG wagon). Mudslinging cleared town. Bus etr? Has MTG #2 on his list and IB 3rd on the list. I think from this ++IB/Mao and +etr/Mao. Dead guy on townlean. Fun. Relevant later.
812: iPot made a contribution. (–iPot/Mao)
813: Kank: Dear goodness is he seriously scumslipping? +scum Kank. –iPot/Kank for Kank’s reaction.
814: +town iPot.
815: -iPot/Mao. If Kank is scum, iPot cannot be scum as the interactive behavior between Mao and Kank contradict each other (Kank possible coach and Mao totally putting down iPot). Still Mao that’s pretty bad that you could have just not added anyone on a 3rd town lean. It just looks awful there.
816: I pulled up a link in TMCT’s case. This really goes towards the Mao/Kank/Ipot team here:
Anti Mass claim of any form day 1. The suggestion makes me dislike Truk.
Agree. I don't know if I would say its enough to be scummy, but its definitely not the best plan when there is no real need for it at the moment.
KK's claim is either anti-town or scum, he has narrowed down the possible targets for PR's if he is telling the truth (antitown) or is scum running a gambit.
My initial thought was town trying to disguise a power role, especially if he is really Thalia. That's kind of a role I would normally assign a power to, but I'm not the mod so thats kind of a moot point I guess.
Anyway, with the two options you suggest plus mine, that gives a 2 out of 3 chance of town alignment(telling the truth, lying in hopes of not getting night killed with a power, and scum trying to provide a role that would most likely be in the game and counter-claimable.)
This is a thought though. Do the mods here provide scum players with a list of safe-claims?(As in "this is a role not in the game, if you need to claim it") Its something I've seen done in the past several times, but I don't know if its a "thing" that gets used here ever. If so, then I would be more inclined to believe that KK is potential scum.
He asks if scum get safeclaims, which means if Kank and Mao are on the same team, then he is likely not. Case on iPot isn’t bad but iPot is very noobish, timid, etc. I haven’t seen a game where’s he’s been super proactive yet, but that’s all the defense I can provide on my predecessor’s part.
817: Yay fluff by Kank
818: Kank: Question on ipot’s TMCT read. More no-scumhunting.
819: Rhand saying nothing.
820: Wessel sees the same slips I did. Likes TMCT case on iPot and votes him.
821: TMCT speculation: JD kill doesn’t reflect well on EtR. Also doesn’t look on Mao, but that would mean clearing EtR (and others).
822: Votecount
823: Mao points to where EtR said JD was town and then slipped as JD questioned him. +scum Etr for the reasoning Mao provided, but I cant tell still whether or not EtR and Mao are just super bussing each other. It drives me nuts. :\. Ok responses otherwise.
824: Jests on the slips. Too loose about it for my comfort. Scum tend to play a bit looser on joking. Good questioning by Kank to TMCT for iPot interactions.
825: /barns iPot, chainsaw Kank defending iPot?, more /barn iPot. Votes Mao. +iPot/IB. –Kank/IB.
As of this point, I think that Kank is definitely likely to be scum. Most of these posts are not really doing anything proactive. Lots of distant mediating discussion, rather than actively being a part of it. He's wishy-washy with iPot (1 post feels like coaching, the next it looks like he's condemning him). I think Kank is being pretty loose and I think he's scumslipping. [Additionally previous posts today in regards to MTG feel like "Hey look I didnt start the lynch" when he did nothing to really stop it either. That's scum behavior.
Now for scumteams:
iPot (don't care still doing it): Kank is flipfloping on him and Mao basically calls him dumb for his comment in #812. Given my play experience w/ iPot, that's actually a contribution by him and it's against Mao w/o anyone bringing it up. Kank's overreaction in the following post makes it unlikely for a Kank/iPot/Mao team. Additionally in TMCT's case, there's a quote I pull up where iPot asks if scum gets safeclaims. Now given my view on Kank/Mao, this really clears iPot in my mind. But this is me, so I obviously want me to be clean, but I tried to read each post without bias (since I wasn't actually there, it helps).
IB: Given IB's reactions in #825, I dont think that the Kank/IB/Mao team are as likely either. The main reason for it is that IB actually started the Mao wagon. I still have not really read the entire thread so excuse me if I missed any previous scumreads by IB or EtR on Mao, but it feels like scum bussing scum between EtR and Mao since I feel it's been going on for Days, while IB it seems fresher, more likely to be genuine suspicion.
EtR: I still need to get into the next posts in detail, but initially it seems he and Mao had most to gain from jd death and if both are on same side, makes it all the easier.
Taking a break. More thoughts later.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
I've got to be honest, I've had EtR as town all game due to meta; it might be worthwhile to look at him, especially since he gave up on Maokun, it may have been an early attempt at distancing.
@Eron: do you have a completed scum game I can read?
826: Lulz. Totally planned it. Strong overreaction to IB. –IB/Mao
827/828: IB is correct. He didn’t ask for leans, so obviously Wessel should have been on that list and jd probably shouldn’t have. This really looks bad on Maokun. +town IB.
829: Overreaction, -IB/Mao
830: +town IB for instigating more overreactions from Mao.
831: +town iPot for catching contradiction.
832: TMCT: Interactions of iPot to EtR: This could be a scumteam as they do not interact with each other much. Then again, it may mean that they aren’t scum since if the objective is to create interaction that distances themselves from each other. It’s mixed and go both ways here.
833: nothing
834pt1: EtR; Brings up the fact Mao is basing case on flimsy reason. Tangent to a scumgame I replaced into late. It was Basic #68 and I replaced into scum. I didn’t get any traction into the game and just coasted in. When it was near lylo, I basically went all out and called my scumpartner scum and it was terribly obviously. I played horribly, but my partner went unscathed as my flimsy reasoning was what got me through. Similarly in Eeveelution mafia, I did the same thing (D1 replaced in and died N1). I basically went all out on my partner and then he was able to claim I hit him with an attack, so he goes and lives til endgame. Now to the main purpose of all of this, casing scumpartners with flimsy reasons is a pretty strong scumtell. Given the overall interaction between EtR and Mao, ++EtR/Mao scumteam.
834pt2: The scum can have insightful, helpful posts reads like trying to downplay KCCs towniness. Not really strong reason for Maoscum. /barns IB w/o saying it. +IB/EtR. Disagree with EtR’s point from TMCT’s post. For reference:
“Do you think only giving two town reads when you were asked to give three is scummy?”
.
I think that he’s subtly defending Mao here, as people can genuinely have only a few reads. Given it’s later on in the game and that can happen, but I don’t know. Last part, if he is scum +Etr/Mao/Kank team, as he basically is echoing thoughts I made earlier.
835: agree to disagree on NK analysis. –IB/Mao/Kank scumteam
836: Nothing
837: supports EtR’s barning of him. +IB/EtR.
838: TMCT responds (iPot Case)
839: IB responds (IPot Case)
840: IB likes iPot case, but thinks Maokun is scummier. Adds opinion on it. +town.
No time for summary as I am migrating elsewhere. But I've noticed that in response to the iPot case, basically everyone agrees but does their own thing afterwards. It means either one of 2 things. 1) iPot is scum and his buddies are avoiding bussing him at that point or 2) Scum want to use that case as a later reference point to get another mislynch but rather stick to their plans.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
I've got to be honest, I've had EtR as town all game due to meta; it might be worthwhile to look at him, especially since he gave up on Maokun, it may have been an early attempt at distancing.
@Eron: do you have a completed scum game I can read?
Check Atagan. D1 during WoD lynch and D2 after DRey replaces in.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
@Shark: I'm saying I don't see anything compelling to paint you/iPot as scum. This certainly isn't YOUR scum game, so as far as meta goes, I've got nothing on you, and I don't know iPot well enough. There is also nothing overtly scummy in your/iPot's posting or interactions with Maokun as far as I have been able to see. Perhaps I'm barking up the wrong tree, but I'd like to take a closer look at Eron as I auto-towned him day 1 (meta) and never looked back.
Having read over some of Eron's posts, there may be something there, but it's largely based on the theory that Eron and Maokun decided early on to distance from one another. It's loose, and I've still got to read Kank and KCC again. I've got a ton of homework to still do (after finishing what ended up as a 13 page literature review) so I'm done for the night.
I've got free time tomorrow.
Having read over some of Eron's posts, there may be something there, but it's largely based on the theory that Eron and Maokun decided early on to distance from one another. It's loose, and I've still got to read Kank and KCC again. I've got a ton of homework to still do (after finishing what ended up as a 13 page literature review) so I'm done for the night.
I've got free time tomorrow.
Now here's my quick argument from the pov that both of us are town: Kank must be scum. That means he is apart of gambiting the lynch of maokun with his garruk claim. Now that means the scum team is obviously trying hard to distance themselves from each other if that already happens.
If they are willing to do that, why not do that with your other scumbuddy d1 when their lynch isnt even close yet. So it's similar play just not as exquisite as a fake SS cc gambit.
Basically if you did a crazy one, why not do one that requires less planning and more bussing? So it's crazy but it's logical given what has to be true.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
Now here's my quick argument from the pov that both of us are town: Kank must be scum. That means he is apart of gambiting the lynch of maokun with his garruk claim.
That would make more sense than anything else, wouldn't it?
I mean, why else could Mao have been false claiming? There was already a dead town werewolf, so it's not like he should've been concerned about being auto-lynched over his role name. Plus, why claim Garruk, of all characters? With two known Planeswalkers in the game already, he should've strongly suspected
that the third was here as well, especially after Rhand pointed out that Kank was likely breadcrumbing Garruk. -The whole thing just seems far too suicidal for it to have been anything else.
I didn't want to claim yet because I was waiting to see what MTG~DDS would flip. (If someone is supposed to be your buddy, they seem to turn up bad, or if they are your "sworn enemy" they'll invariably turn up on your side.)
I'm most interested in this one where you said your plan was to sit back and watch what you assumed would be a mislynch so you could confirm your theory on the flavor for... what purpose exactly?
All I had was my counter-flavor supposition. It certainly wasn't from MTG~DDS's play style.
"Hey guys, my flavor says that Liliana is bad, so she must really be good instead, right?"
You guys would have facepalmed and then yelled at me for flavorgaming.
That and I was suspicious of the non-Wessel people going after MTG~DDS. It was way too fishy to me.
I certainly didn't have enough to go by, and I was taking a big enough risk as it was with someone that I only had a strong hunch was town. Had MTG~DDS flipped scum, then I'd already be on the chopping block today for trying to defend him.
I couldn't save you from lynch in #69 and I had more of a feel that you were town in that game than I've felt in this game. Had Rhand not proven you were town, I'd have already revisited my case on you and IB.
I didn't want to claim yet because I was waiting to see what MTG~DDS would flip. (If someone is supposed to be your buddy, they seem to turn up bad, or if they are your "sworn enemy" they'll invariably turn up on your side.)
I'm most interested in this one where you said your plan was to sit back and watch what you assumed would be a mislynch so you could confirm your theory on the flavor for... what purpose exactly?
All I had was my counter-flavor supposition. It certainly wasn't from MTG~DDS's play style.
"Hey guys, my flavor says that Liliana is bad, so she must really be good instead, right?"
You guys would have facepalmed and then yelled at me for flavorgaming.
That and I was suspicious of the non-Wessel people going after MTG~DDS. It was way too fishy to me.
I certainly didn't have enough to go by, and I was taking a big enough risk as it was with someone that I only had a strong hunch was town. Had MTG~DDS flipped scum, then I'd already be on the chopping block today for trying to defend him.
I couldn't save you from lynch in #69 and I had more of a feel that you were town in that game than I've felt in this game. Had Rhand not proven you were town, I'd have already revisited my case on you and IB.
So, what were you waiting to see before claiming? What effect would his flip have had on your claim?
Bolded Votes that require additional investigation:
Kank's vote of KK is suspicious from the surface as it's the L-1 vote, which makes me think he positioned himself for lynch.
EtR's vote of TMCT is odd for mainly 1 reason: He's been voting Maokun for 2 consecutive days, then all of the sudden isn't come lynch time. Kinda odd. I have to reread him again to make sure he isn't bussing.
Even though MTG~DDS was not technically lynched, he basically was going to be lynched so I expect some scum to help push the easy mislynch. Given 2 of 3 are town, that leaves IB as likely scum.
For cases against me/iPot, note that until I replaced in, iPot never had a vote on any of these vote counts. I find this very strange, and I'd pursue if it wasn't for the fact I was in fact town.
If I had to bet money at this point, IB and Kank scumteam. Though EtR and Kank are likely. KCC I need confirmation that I can safely assume town.
Also: @Kank: I thought everyone claimed. Am I wrong? I claimed Pitre as VT for record.
These two posts are of different mindsets and one I believe that shows shark is trying to play town. He clearly says in the first post that he doubts that I am bussing but in the second posts he tries to pivot and say that I am bussing. They are inconsistent and show that he is looking for a way out of his current predicament.
@EtR: Now that he has flipped, can you tell me why you were doubting MTG~DDS' scumminess round about the time he claimed?
It was a few different things. First, his posts came across as genuine. Second was that I couldn't see a link between him and Shark and I have a much better read on Shark than I did DDS. I should have argued it more, but I didn't have time. Specifically when I posted that we should lynch Shark first and Sharks response was something to the effect of "are you afraid of me." That isn't something that a townie would post.
I've got to be honest, I've had EtR as town all game due to meta; it might be worthwhile to look at him, especially since he gave up on Maokun, it may have been an early attempt at distancing.
@Eron: do you have a completed scum game I can read?
I do. I have 3 now: Ataghan - I was lynched day 2 Mean Girls Pretty sure I was lynched day 2, but I can't remember. Either way it was early in the game. Modern Family This one I replaced in as scum on the final day and just skated till the end.
Having read over some of Eron's posts, there may be something there, but it's largely based on the theory that Eron and Maokun decided early on to distance from one another. It's loose, and I've still got to read Kank and KCC again. I've got a ton of homework to still do (after finishing what ended up as a 13 page literature review) so I'm done for the night.
I've got free time tomorrow.
Since you are like, the third person to say this, I'd like to address it. It's WIFOM of course, but why would I, as scum, decide to start "distancing" against a buddy who was not in the spotlight? Like most people have said at some point or another, that would have been a masterful bus job. Feel free to check out my scum games and see if you think I have that kinda skill yet. Protip: I don't.
I didn't want to claim yet because I was waiting to see what MTG~DDS would flip. (If someone is supposed to be your buddy, they seem to turn up bad, or if they are your "sworn enemy" they'll invariably turn up on your side.)
I'm most interested in this one where you said your plan was to sit back and watch what you assumed would be a mislynch so you could confirm your theory on the flavor for... what purpose exactly?
All I had was my counter-flavor supposition. It certainly wasn't from MTG~DDS's play style.
"Hey guys, my flavor says that Liliana is bad, so she must really be good instead, right?"
You guys would have facepalmed and then yelled at me for flavorgaming.
That and I was suspicious of the non-Wessel people going after MTG~DDS. It was way too fishy to me.
I certainly didn't have enough to go by, and I was taking a big enough risk as it was with someone that I only had a strong hunch was town. Had MTG~DDS flipped scum, then I'd already be on the chopping block today for trying to defend him.
I couldn't save you from lynch in #69 and I had more of a feel that you were town in that game than I've felt in this game. Had Rhand not proven you were town, I'd have already revisited my case on you and IB.
Kank and Shark for the scum team. These two are distancing. They are both pushing the other but less so than they are attempting to push IB and I.
So, what were you waiting to see before claiming? What effect would his flip have had on your claim?
I wanted to see if MTG~DDS had any counter flavor on Garruk in return. Two different events threw wrenches in my plans: Maokun falseclaiming Garruk :eek:, and MTG~DDS quoting his private PM :weird:.
He didn't have the counter flavor that I anticipated, so I don't know what else to tell you.
I can open up another box of wine if you want.
So, what were you waiting to see before claiming? What effect would his flip have had on your claim?
I wanted to see if MTG~DDS had any counter flavor on Garruk in return.
So, let's say we had lynched him, and his flip revealed him as town with the sort of counter flavor you had anticipated. -Then what?
I was trying to get that information before he died. If he had the flavor of "I'm fighting Garruk who is my sworn enemy" et al, then I would have been utterly convinced of his town status. I can't picture a scum player having flavor of that sort. I wanted to know his flavor before I shared mine, but that didn't work out either and it ended up not mattering anyway.
I was going to read more tonight, but my stomach is killing me. Family drama + the wrong kind of food =
If today didn't matter, I'd offer myself up to the rope again like I did yesterday.
But then again, had you lynched me yesterday and MTG~DDS were still alive today, would you be willing to counter-flavorgame on his behalf?
Methinks not.
You'd have gone ahead and lynched MTG~DDS today and...game over.
Ahhh! Kank is fearmongering! He's saying that if we lynch him the game will be over!
This would have been so much easier if Mao had really been a scumbomb--isn't that ironic?
I'd be out of the picture and you'd have the same 66.6% chance of hitting scum as I do out of Shark/IB/EtR.
Right now, you (KCC) and Wessel have a 50% chance.
I would type something else here, but I'm feeling too crappy.
@EtR: Now that he has flipped, can you tell me why you were doubting MTG~DDS' scumminess round about the time he claimed?
It was a few different things. First, his posts came across as genuine. Second was that I couldn't see a link between him and Shark and I have a much better read on Shark than I did DDS. I should have argued it more, but I didn't have time. Specifically when I posted that we should lynch Shark first and Sharks response was something to the effect of "are you afraid of me." That isn't something that a townie would post.
Ok.
What was your reason to say 'Do not like' in this post? 1
What was your reason to say 'You're the one that I was talking about when I said that I think another player caught it.' in this post? 2
What did you 'catch'?
1. Initially, I didn't like the fact that it was a claim of Liliana and the flavor felt very dark - Flavor gaming the demons and zombies and devils piece.
2. What I thought I had caught was the brackets around Town Vanilla. I saw the brackets on mine, so I believed that the claim was valid. Then when I was researching some of the dead players conversations, I saw that their death scenes contained the brackets as well. I thought by the way that you had previously phrased the information that you had caught it as well, but when I saw that it was available in the reveals it no longer bothered me.
I didn't want to claim yet because I was waiting to see what MTG~DDS would flip.
So... how exactly where you going to see what MTG~DDS was going to flip before he died?
-Wanna try explaining that again?
What effect would his flip have had on your claim? -Let's say we had lynched him, and his flip revealed him as town with the sort of counter flavor you had anticipated. -Then what?
841: More instigation by IB. –IB/Mao
842: Kank: @IB’s quote: So 1 post changes your attitude 180, yet you say it’s his whole attitude lately? Given that TMCT was planning a case when this first part happened, an opportune time to switch gears and jump on a bandwagon, especially if its not on your teammate. –IB/Kank, +scumKank
@EtR’s quote: The heck? He just supported EtR who basically called Mao/Kank scumteam. Lulz. +scumKank.
843: IB: Nothing much, more question.
844: Kank: So I now decide to sit on a fence. Fun. +scum.
845: iPot: Yes you are actively not trying to be town as you aren’t really doing much of note. Basically a “sorry I’m still new here” post. Eh, sympathy points aren’t going to help much. Valid point on being wrong though. I don’t really see him milking that part in other posts. If he were, that would raise red flags, as it would be actively trying to make people see that he sucks and must be town.
846: TMCT: Then again on the iPot post, he has yet to really do much period and has not responded to the TMCT case on him. So that looks bad. Though, if I were being cased as scum, I’d actively try to defend it, so it kinda works both ways.
847: MTGDDS: Not relevant to today
848: Maokun: Calls out ipot for posting redundant info. –Mao/ipot.; Mao actually tries to throw a 3-man team of iPot/IB/EtR. At least 1 is scumbuddy for sure. Probably just the one though given everything else. Also overreacts to EtR, but not in the same manner as iPot I feel. I could be wrong here, but that’s my thoughts there.
849: EtR driving a bus here? Basically doesn’t want to speak to Mao because Mao fails to address the reason that EtR is scum in Mao’s view. IIRC Mao also thought EtR had a flimsy case of him. So I think both sides are trying to actively play against each other here.
850: O hey, he saw the 3-man scumteam. Oddly funny that he said no mafia team would ever set up a 1-2-3 punch, when in my view they set up a pretty convincing gambit w/Kank and Mao, and possibly another w/ EtR and Mao.
851: Nice, scumMao leaves a case on EtR. Also adds in the fact that he thinks EtR’s case is super flimsy that he has to twist words to get lynch. Both are making identical cases here. ++Etr/Mao
852: KCC: O hey, he notices that Kank seems to be oversharing.
853/854: iPot responds to TMCT: No time to read into now. Anyone wanting to case me should probably look here.
855: Wow, Kank. If you are scum, I am surprised your teammates haven’t shut you up yet. Those clever responses are not helping you.
Summary: Kank looks worse, EtR and Mao are going at each other. The interaction between Mao and EtR differs from Mao and iPot, in the sense that I see one being more scum-scum (discredit for distancing) and one more scum-town (discredit to lynch)
If day ended at this moment, Kank should be lynched. EtR would be my guess at scumbuddy.
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"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
I was flavorgaming and it didn't work.
Is that what you want to hear?
Originally, I was content to wait and see what MTG~DDS really was, but the more I thought about it, the more counter-flavor whirled around in my mind telling me that he was going to be town. I asked him about it, he revealed too much, and got himself modkilled instead.
I don't know how else you want me to answer the same question over and over again.
If me trying to use flavor to save MTG~DDS's life makes me the bad guy, then lynch me. It makes a lot more sense to me to look closely at the people that wanted him dead without a good reason than the people that wanted him kept alive and never once voted for him.
If me trying to use flavor to save MTG~DDS's life makes me the bad guy, then lynch me. It makes a lot more sense to me to look closely at the people that wanted him dead without a good reason than the people that wanted him kept alive and never once voted for him.
If me trying to use flavor to save MTG~DDS's life makes me the bad guy, then lynch me. It makes a lot more sense to me to look closely at the people that wanted him dead without a good reason than the people that wanted him kept alive and never once voted for him.
But you didn't. You let him die.
He got himself modkilled. There's a big difference.
If me trying to use flavor to save MTG~DDS's life makes me the bad guy, then lynch me. It makes a lot more sense to me to look closely at the people that wanted him dead without a good reason than the people that wanted him kept alive and never once voted for him.
But you didn't. You let him die.
He got himself modkilled. There's a big difference.
No there isn't. You could have said all that stuff before he quoted and possibly turned it around for him. You chose to sit back while there was a healthy mob when you had this gut feel. Why not put it out there?
If y'all want levels of conviction, I was more convinced that KCC was scum back when I made up my case on her than I was that MTG~DDS was town before he flipped.
@KCC: I think EtR is town. There's no reason scumEtR would help to detract from a mislynch on MTG~DDS. And his reasoning for doubting MTG~DDS was scum because of [Town Vanilla] was almost the same as mine (for him it was the brackets, for me the order of words (seeing how in the OP it's written as 'Vanilla Town')). He's honest.
Uhhh, I don't see him at all detracting from the mislynch. The closest thing to detracting is saying that I am scum. Where does EtR say this?
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"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
If EtR is indeed town, then it has to be IB/Shark. There's no other option.
Funny how you say that yet I don't think you are convinced of that fact. How come?
Apathy mixed with frustration. I haven't had the time to fully reread this game like I wanted to. I wrote off too many people too early and didn't pay close enough attention to them because of that.
I fully expect to be the lynch candidate for today. It makes sense for me to be scum. (It made sense for MTG~DDS to be scum too--all I had was a hunch otherwise.) Whoever the real team is, they're better at this than I am.
If EtR is indeed town, then it has to be IB/Shark. There's no other option.
Funny how you say that yet I don't think you are convinced of that fact. How come?
Apathy mixed with frustration. I haven't had the time to fully reread this game like I wanted to. I wrote off too many people too early and didn't pay close enough attention to them because of that.
I fully expect to be the lynch candidate for today. It makes sense for me to be scum. (It made sense for MTG~DDS to be scum too--all I had was a hunch otherwise.) Whoever the real team is, they're better at this than I am.
So you are basically piggybacking Wessel? I haven't had the time I wanted to until recent but look at the past 2 days and see who is likely scumteam from there. Scum at this point want to win with the mislynch. There's a shot scum may bus and take that for the win as well. Who out of the remaining players is playing like genuine town. You have two players to go off of at this point to confirm their behavior throughout the game (Wessel/KCC)
Also, I never got a reason KCC was confirmed town, but KCC is playing enough like town for me to not care that much anymore. Bringing up who to trust does matter when it comes down to this point, so a reason for this would be helpful, though I think it's pretty clear otherwise.
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"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
@Wessel: thanks. Just had to be sure. Also I think Kank is more likely to be scum. Mostly his behavior early D3 and him dragging his heels today. Additionally his role name seems fake and I think there's scum gambit all over the maokun lynch.
IB behaved like town when pressuring Mao initially and I believe it to be genuine. Additionally just the interactions between each of the key players that I honestly think IB is town.
Also, I may skip ahead on my reads til I replace in so I can see how the Maokun wagon appeared, where EtR unvoted maokun, and where Kank claims Garruk. I will have to see how many posts I have to readthrough in depth and how much time I have
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"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
Heh. I meant to say, who you think is scum out of Kank and EtR.
Kank is the only player I am comfortable enough to call scum. Too many things I see read scum. I mean if you look at the posts I've analyzed I have at least some complaint on each post Kank has made.
EtR is next on the list. I am pretty sure it's him and Id bet money he's scumbuddies with Kank and Mao, but I cannot be 100 percent ever because of his interaction w/ Mao. My goal today now seriously has to be see how EtR evolved from Mao to TMCT, see the development of the Mao wagon to his jump off it. If I am satisfied there that he's scum bussing and jumping off, then I will be confident enough that he's scum.
IB interactions with Mao look town as he basically is goading Mao to go on tilt with "U Mad?" posts. It's a tactic that can really give solid reads off of and I don't know if IB would do it to his scumbuddy. Though then again my argument on etr can be used here.
Heh. I meant to say, who you think is scum out of Kank and EtR.
Kank is the only player I am comfortable enough to call scum. Too many things I see read scum. I mean if you look at the posts I've analyzed I have at least some complaint on each post Kank has made.
EtR is next on the list. I am pretty sure it's him and Id bet money he's scumbuddies with Kank and Mao, but I cannot be 100 percent ever because of his interaction w/ Mao. My goal today now seriously has to be see how EtR evolved from Mao to TMCT, see the development of the Mao wagon to his jump off it. If I am satisfied there that he's scum bussing and jumping off, then I will be confident enough that he's scum.
IB interactions with Mao look town as he basically is goading Mao to go on tilt with "U Mad?" posts. It's a tactic that can really give solid reads off of and I don't know if IB would do it to his scumbuddy. Though then again my argument on etr can be used here.
I think this votecount is telling. First - I had unvoted TMCT so I'm not sure why I was still showing up but more importantly is where I've bolded. I can't see IB and Shark on the same team with this vote count taken into effect. That would mean all 3 scum were tied up with each other. I can't see this happening and to me with my current leans on each other cements Shark as scum.
Hi. I'm here, but I still don't have anything resembling a case. Interactions point to EtR and Kank for the remaining two scum, Meta tells me Eron is likely not scum. I can't find much for iPot/Shark being scum except for PoE.
@EtR: I plan on giving a detailed response on the interactions between Mao and the living players but I have a lot of IRL atm. Check the posts I have written down, but generally it comes down to the motive of the interactions D3.
Looking at IB, he's actively trying to make Mao make a mistake. He's trying to get him on tilt and make him slip. That's not a scum-scum bus relationship.
You and Mao are basically trying to discredit each other's CASES on each other, siting basically that they were based on nothing. This is an easy way to try to distance yourself from Mao and I can easily see that as bussing.
iPot and Mao is where iPot brings up a point against Mao and Mao basically attacks iPot as a player as a whole. Not the point, but the player. That's different from you and Mao. I really don't see that as a scum-scum bussing relationship.
**********
@IB: Reread EtR from D3 til now and see how that molds with his meta. I know you've played with him a bit and see how that goes. Also, if you are really having a hard time making a case for me being scum, try building town cases on the 3 of us (Kank, EtR, and me). If then you cannot find reasons for me to be town, then obviously PoE would have to tell you I am scum. Which you'd be wrong, but at least you'd feel better about it since you could actively justify yourself.
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"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
You and Mao are basically trying to discredit each other's CASES on each other, siting basically that they were based on nothing. This is an easy way to try to distance yourself from Mao and I can easily see that as bussing.
I hope you're scum after this arguement. When someone presents a case on you, you argue against it....
If you're really going to try and get me mislynched use the more obvious stuff that I was wrong about. Here I'll help: I pushed for PSR over KK on day one. I also backed off Mao when no one else was seeing it but IB. Also, I pushed TMCT to claim because I didn't believe him. There's 3 for you to start with.
Lastly for now, if you think I'm scum, who's my partner? You could say IB, but that would require Me, IB and Mao to have gone at each other through the whole game. Me, Kank and Mao is a little more likely but that would require you to believe that Kank sat on the sidelines and was pushing both of us subtly so he could distance later. Unfortunately, Kank said several times he thought we were both town. If both of us were his scum buddy, why wouldn't he take that opportunity to bus one or the both of us since it got pretty ugly there for awhile.
The only other option would be Me, you and Mao. Actually, of the three pairings presented here, this is the most likely. I haven't interacted with you/iPot very much this game and Mao didn't either IIRC.
If you remove me from the equation that leaves IB, Kank and Mao; IB, You and Mao or You, Kank and Mao. Lets take a look:
IB, Kank and Mao - Possible but not likely. The samething I said about Me, Kank and Mao apply here. I don't believe IB is bussing and if he is he's getting booted out of the midcard mafia leaving just me. (See the end of King of the Hill for reference).
OH!!! As a quick aside - I told you all (mostly none of you since nobody was around in the beginning) to read KotH Mafia because Mao was playing differently! <-point for me
Next would be IB, You and Mao: again possible, but I don't believe IB to be scum. But same applies from before with you and Mao.
Lastly, you, Kank and Mao. This is where the scum team resides. It all matches. Kank stays outside my fight with Mao but when forced to choose picked me as more town. IPot and Mao had limited interaction. Then today you and Kank have been GENTLY pushing each other while trying to steer to another - either me or IB.
Anyway, that was long and ranty but at the end of the day you two should just concede.
You and Mao are basically trying to discredit each other's CASES on each other, siting basically that they were based on nothing. This is an easy way to try to distance yourself from Mao and I can easily see that as bussing.
I hope you're scum after this arguement. When someone presents a case on you, you argue against it....
If you're really going to try and get me mislynched use the more obvious stuff that I was wrong about. Here I'll help: I pushed for PSR over KK on day one. I also backed off Mao when no one else was seeing it but IB. Also, I pushed TMCT to claim because I didn't believe him. There's 3 for you to start with.
As mentioned I plan to look into the latter one. I am sorry that I replaced in and have not been in game the entire time. I am judging by the body of work but it seems like Mao is a fall to guy to push. I want to see if your push of TMCT is genuine and not to try to detract from a potential Mao lynch.
Lastly for now, if you think I'm scum, who's my partner? You could say IB, but that would require Me, IB and Mao to have gone at each other through the whole game. Me, Kank and Mao is a little more likely but that would require you to believe that Kank sat on the sidelines and was pushing both of us subtly so he could distance later. Unfortunately, Kank said several times he thought we were both town. If both of us were his scum buddy, why wouldn't he take that opportunity to bus one or the both of us since it got pretty ugly there for awhile.
As mentioned a number of times I've said Kank. I am trying to figure out the Kank/EtR angle, but given I am pretty deadset on Kank scum, you and Mao pushing each other all game isn't a stretch, especially given that Kank falseclaimed a scummate. Kank seems to play a bit too cocky and loose with his theories especially D3, so it really wouldn't surprise me that you all are scummates.
The only other option would be Me, you and Mao. Actually, of the three pairings presented here, this is the most likely. I haven't interacted with you/iPot very much this game and Mao didn't either IIRC.
Honestly, if I had not replaced in, I'd be looking here more than you, Kank, or IB, but I am town, so that ruins this theory.
If you remove me from the equation that leaves IB, Kank and Mao; IB, You and Mao or You, Kank and Mao. Lets take a look:
IB, Kank and Mao - Possible but not likely. The samething I said about Me, Kank and Mao apply here. I don't believe IB is bussing and if he is he's getting booted out of the midcard mafia leaving just me. (See the end of King of the Hill for reference).
OH!!! As a quick aside - I told you all (mostly none of you since nobody was around in the beginning) to read KotH Mafia because Mao was playing differently! <-point for me
IB's still a possibility with Kank for much of the similar reasons I have for you.
Next would be IB, You and Mao: again possible, but I don't believe IB to be as scummy as you.
Also, +town points depending on how early you actually said that.
Lastly, you, Kank and Mao. This is where the scum team resides. It all matches. Kank stays outside my fight with Mao but when forced to choose picked me as more town. IPot and Mao had limited interaction. Then today you and Kank have been GENTLY pushing each other while trying to steer to another - either me or IB.
Anyway, that was long and ranty but at the end of the day you two should just concede.
Huh? How is Kank forced to choose you as more town? When were you ever pushed? I don't get what you are trying to do there.
And if you have actually read my D3 readthrough, you'd basically know that I've settled on Kank as scum and should be lynched today. I don't get how you see me as trying to detract from that. I am now trying to decide who is his partner.
Your post actually does bring a good point I want to ask now.
@IB, Kank, Shark, and EtR: Who do we lynch today? It's a one word answer and that's all that really matters in the end.
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"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
We have a week before the LTR hits and I am swamped with work. I have no idea when I'll have time to reread this game either.
If I wasn't already me or if it wouldn't make everyone take me off their Christmas card mailing list, I'd probably vote for myself. I don't have a clear case or view on anyone right now.
I'm going to bed extra late tonight just so I could stay up and read up a little more. (It's after 3AM here)
I just finished rereading Day 1 and have three fresh pages of notes which I'll be sure to share tomorrow work permitting. Don't kill anybody yet!
EtR and Shark should stop talking to each other. EtR should start talking to Kank and Shark should start making a case why he thinks out of EtR, Kank and IB, the latter is the most likely town.
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@Kank: Self-voting is a no-no. It will lose the game for your team.
I don't understand. Why do you want me not to stop talking to Shark?
I'm not going to speak for Wessel or anyone else, but I've been voting Mao since late on day 1 and I have outlined my case several times. I honestly didn't believe that he was asking me that in a serious manner.
You didn't believe that he was asking you what in a serious manner? -And please explain in as much detail as possible. That whole exchange you had with Wes there still makes no sense to me.
I don't know what more to explain here.
Wessel voted Mao. I asked Wessel, "Why Mao?" Wessel in turn asked me "Why Mao?" I assumed that Wessel was joking because I've been on Mao for ever and presented my reasons as to why plenty of times.
I'm also interested in seeing if you can find anything on KittyCupCake. She's been acting odd to me lately, but nothing I can put a finger on.
You too?
@Mao - regarding you big post in response to my big post - The reason I left PSR's wagon was the same reason that I got on yours. I found you scummier at the time. To me they are one in the same.
I would like to throw this idea out to you though (Mao). I've been thinking about our interactions a lot. Notice how no one else is really committing to either one of our wagons. I'm getting the feeling that the scum are letting us slug it out in the hopes that one of us comes out on the bad end and end up with a rolling wagon.
I also don't think that as scum, knowing I'm going to flip town, you would really push me this hard. So with that said Unvote Maokun. I have an idea of who I want to vote for, but I'm going to go and look into it more.
Aaaaargh I took too long editing a PBP in which I detailed a case against IB, and when I submitted it gave me that stupid "token expired error". I don't have time or desire to do it all over again so I'll just put here my main findings from memory:
Day 1: He joins and finds very scummy both players with votes on them at the moment (KK and PSR.) He also finds EtR and Tezz town and never again makes any mention on their alignment. He drives hard the PSR wagon (even harder than I though EtR did... I guess I was indeed tunneling, I'm sorry,) while posting contradictory views on KK for much of the day (He goes from fully agreeing with EtR about KK's townness to being sure about his scumminess and back within the span of a few posts.)
After the first reset, the game is revolving around Rhand's "lure" supposed language tell and he jumps to Rhand's wagon even though he had been pushing PSR's wagon just a few posts before. Soon after, though, comes the next votes reset and as the "lure" thing is dying, he votes for PSR stating that he is "unswayed" but then he remembers his latest vote and quickly EBWODPs saying that he'd be ok with a Rhand lynch too. At that point players are also looking suspiciously at me after KCC first said I needed to die and unsurprisingly, he claims starting to be suspicious of me.
Towards the end of the day, and without explanation, he has completely forgotten about Rhand and remembered about KK! He urged players to vote for EITHER because both of them were scum (hint: neither was) though his favourite was still PSR/Wessel.
Day 2: Almost didn't participate at all. His vote remained on Wessel for the whole day and the only noteworthy thing he did was dropping out of the blue TMCT's name as his second lead, even above me. That was the first time in the game IB mentioned an opinion on TCMT's alignment.
Day 3: He votes for DDR because the quicklynch and FoSs TMCT for voting without a case. All that would be forgotten soon when he decided to get on my case for only having two town leads.
He has barely ever mentioned or had almost any interaction with the following players: KCC, jd, iPot and Kankennon (he did mention at the beginning that something seemed off about one post of Allwinapprentice, but that's a phrase he likes to drop with some regularity.) He has been mostly /barning the latest and most popular town lead and from time to time questioning people about non-relevant matters to appear scumhunting. It was all better exposed in the PBP, and hopefully it will become evident when Wessel does his own analysis, but in the meantime:
@Wessel: Thanks for the analysis on DDR and iPot. As I said before I'm finding these personally useful and the only thing I have to say is that in iPot's analysis, you often disregard some possible scumtells because "no scum would do that." However I'd like to say "no experienced scum." My scum lean on iPot is quite weak, but if he's scum he strikes me as a very nooby and clumsy scum.
@Mao - regarding you big post in response to my big post - The reason I left PSR's wagon was the same reason that I got on yours. I found you scummier at the time. To me they are one in the same.
This is not exactly what I was asking you: I know that you believed I was equally scummy to PSR but my puzzlement was your decision to jump from a near-successful wagon to one that would unlikely be resolved in Day 1. However, Rhand's answer to the same question helped me see how it makes sense.
I would like to throw this idea out to you though (Mao). I've been thinking about our interactions a lot. Notice how no one else is really committing to either one of our wagons. I'm getting the feeling that the scum are letting us slug it out in the hopes that one of us comes out on the bad end and end up with a rolling wagon.
I also don't think that as scum, knowing I'm going to flip town, you would really push me this hard. So with that said Unvote Maokun. I have an idea of who I want to vote for, but I'm going to go and look into it more.
Actually, since Rhand pointed me how his actions were very similar to yours in the same progression I was describing and helped me see how they could come from a town mentality, I've been considering my suspicions on you. I'm not sure I'm ready to drop all my suspicions but you make a valid point about how we seem to be fighting each other in a bubble while everyone else just watches or ignores us and I had already decided to stop tunneling on you and hopefully see your interactions with someone besides me to help me make up my mind. On the meantime I have a more solid lead as stated above.
******
I am surprised how quickly EtR and Mao just stopped voting each other and went on their merry way. The development was not as hoped, but it's odd for them to go after each other than not.
Okay, here's a Reader's Digest reason: doesn't hammer KK in #567, doesn't hammer KK in #571, Tezz unvotes KK in #572, then votes KK in #574. Hammer avoidance.
I am Sorin, Lord of Innistrad, Town Jack of All Trades.
KCC's standing with the town seems weaker now than it did the first two Days, so I need to share this before Nightfall: she's confirmed town to me. She was (going to be) the Night 1 NK.
I actually caught this breadcrumb Day 2. I figured you were doc, but close enough. That's why RHand is town too, right?
Being as how that was a "town gambit" this quote now seems very very suspicious.
TMCT was definitely breadcrumbing some kind of protection ability there. -The fact that he hasn't been 100% honest about exactly what he did is irrelevant. He clearly stopped the N1 kill; because if he didn't, then someone else must have and they would have counter-claimed already.
Are you afraid that Wessel will spot something about KCC that others (including myself) missed?
At this point, it's obvious that TMCT stated this because I am cleared to him through night actions. There is absolutely no reason to ask this question unless Kank is either a complete idiot or scum trying to smear TMCT. And I don't believe the former for a second.
Okay, so from here on out, we have to guess what is true and what isn't?
If this is a scum gambit, you have just attempted the craziest scum gambit I have ever seen!
Now, the main reason is...WHY?
Why are you doing this?
Wessel in post #1090 mentioned having a pre-full analysis of me as leaning town, so was this gambit triggered by that in some way.
Were you concerned that Wessel wasn't going to find me as scummy as you wanted him to find me?
Were you then concerned that Wessel would discover details about KCC that slipped by the rest of us, including myself?
If you are town, how can you be absolutely sure that KCC is also?
Why are you willing to risk so much in defense of another player?
First, the statement that this would be "the craziest scum gambit [he has] ever seen" would normally imply that this is too far out there for him to view it as scum motivated, and yet the entire tone is casting suspicion.
And second, these are more completely terrible questions from Kank. He isn't asking these questions for answers or insight, these questions are designed to make it look like he is involved, while casting absurd suspicions on TMCT. In the (almost certain) event that TMCT is town, these questions are all either leading questions (the first 3), or have ridiculously obvious answers (the last 2). While on the other hand, in the (nearly impossible) event that TMCT were scum somehow, these questions clearly wouldn't be answered honestly, but they also have such simple and obvious answers with basically no room for TMCT to possibly slip up, that why even bother asking them?
This is the equivalent of asking "Hey, are you town?" except stretching it out over a large paragraph to make it look like scum hunting. It would accomplish absolutely nothing if Kank is town.
Part and parcel to that, Kank's two posts in that sequence (#668 and #671) are another reason I think he's scum.
How do my posts #668 and #671 paint me as scum?
I'm not sure what TMCT is seeing there, but there is certainly something I don't like. Let's compare your response to a potential breadcrumb with mine:
I see TMCT hinting at a N1 protect, so I immediately change direction away from him without saying a word.
You see Rhand hinting at being a PR, so you ask "HEY!!! ARE YOU A PR?!" and add "oh yeah, btw, that should be a secret, SHHH!"
Unvote; Vote Kank
And yes, I'm aware that DDS pretty much has to be scum as well. And while I'm still happy to go in that direction, I'm slightly more confident in Kank at this point (like 99% to 98%).
#696: Suddenly jumps on me because TMCT did so as well. Now his townie reasoning is because his reads are not clear and feels that since there was no kill the previous Night, we wouldn't lose anything by lynching me.
There was actually a more specific reason than that, which I just couldn't say at the time. But, my strongest scum read had been TMCT until he breadcrumbed protection, which threw my view of the game into chaos. So, I was more than happy to gather more info with him through the safe lynch while I reevaluated things.
And looking back through earlier in the day, TMCT was asking Rhand probing questions, so I doubted it was a cop inspection. And since the conversation revolved around this:
Kankennon, you and EtR voiced before that that would probably be the case. Depending on who the scum are, they might prioritize someone else first. They might even have a lead on another pr that they want to follow first or a strong player they want to get rid off fast.
So in short: I don't know.
I figured TMCT knew something about what happened to the N1 NK.
I thought it over long and hard.
TMCT is town. Deluded, yes, but still town.
Convinced that KCC was also town, he jailed her N1 which stopped her from killing her target.
A different scum player (IB?) did the N2 kill for fear that KCC would be blocked again.
KCC:
852: Offended by my statement. Why? KCC was set to perform the nightkill and was blocked by TMCT. KCC decided that I must die at this point.
856: Tries to convince me that I’m wrong.
886: Sees me getting even closer to the truth and decides to back off a little.
897: Vote on IB out of nowhere. Testing the water.
929: Claims to not even know IB was playing. Riiiiight. Says IB’s response is awful but no details as to why. (KCC and IB are scumbuddies by the way, this is all a weak attempt at distancing by KCC.)
941: More weak distancing from IB. Offers up specific past games knowing that I couldn’t possibly make any scum/meta connections with them to this game.
957: Terrible PBPA of IB to “change her mind” about him yet will now have a record of “See! I thought he was scum back here!” in the event IB gets strung up before she does.
970: Trying to further cement the idea that IB has proven himself as “town” to KCC at this point. Actively steering/supporting other town votes (TMCT on me and EtR on KCC) so as not to appear to jumpy or defensive of EtR’s case on her.
983: Has so little on me, resorts to jumping on the word “really” in hopes to continue to justify a future wagon. Really?
987: Trying to capitalize on TMCT’s KK-hammer analysis of me.
1016: Likes IB, likes Rhand’s scumspects list of MTG~DDS, TMCT, EtR, and me, likes Mao’s response too. Decides it’s a good time to jump on the MTG~DDS wagon.
1030: More IB support, slight Mao support.
1059: Interesting dialog with EtR. I’m completely sold now that EtR is town. All KCC has on me is WIFOM. I’ve done and said stupid things that could certainly be construed as scummy. Why not jump on those than a weak WIFOM mention each time? Why? KCC knows I’m town and can’t think of a good way to go after me. Standing fast on MTG~DDS’s wagon, while preparing to wagon me tomorrow somehow.
1085: Says IB/Mao is town vs town, gives extra support to Mao now.
1105-1109: Super, super fishy. Says she sees breadcrumbs out of thin air and can’t support it.
1163: Yes, knows TMCT is town, which he is. Knows she can’t go after him at all now because no scum would try to pull off what he did. Knows she has to try to set me up for the mislynch tomorrow because MTG~DDS is going to flip town.
Cleared: TMCT, EtR, and MTG~DDS.
Scum Team: KCC, IB, and ?
Maokun is my strongest hunch for scum #3, simply by PoE and interactions now more than anything.
You’re good KCC, REALLY good, but I caught you! Vote KittyCupCake
I was quite confused after TMCT explained the botched gambit. It really took me by surprise because I never expected a townie to do something like that. (Again, this game has been an education.) After a quick re-read and much pondering, I think I now understand what is going on. That is to say, that TMCT is saying the truth and he's indeed all he states to be. Not that it changes anything at all for me as both he and KCC have been my strongest town reads almost from the beginning, and TMCT's claimed actions align with the small behavioural changes I had perceived and the few posts that had made me raise my eyebrows.
Under the light feeling positive of TMCT's Sorin role, the alleged fact of a powerless Liliana bothers me more and more. If Liliana, as expected is a PR, why wouldn't DDS tell us what is, especially with all his fatalistic talk? Then it hit me: if it's a scum PR, then stating the ability would very likely expose it as a scum ability. DDS is now looking more scummy to me.
KCC's new case on Kank is perhaps the most logically sound case that I've seen in this game. I'm going to barn it.
I like Rhand's analysis of possible teams and my read on him is decently townie, but I'm not ready to declare him safe town, i.e.: his name needs to be thrown in that lot too. That said, IB+DDS+Kank seem like the most likely scum team to me right now.
**********
Now Kank looks terrible here and Mao's quick to barn here. Odd behavior given earlier state. Additionally, Mao did not add anything new to the argument, but rather /barn KCC. This to me is a bus vote.
**********
Now to answer your question Wessel, it all circles around Mao.
Mao v. EtR: We all know how they basically dismissed each others arguments as they were "flimsy" reasons. They kept going at each other until enough people were able to write them off as town v. town. Rhand specifically I saw say this. Obviously now it's not town v. town, so it's important to see how they go after each other. Both use similar reasons attacking the case.
IB v. Mao: Now this one mainly occurred after EtR v. Mao, like literally Mao jumped on IB. There is very little chance Mao jumps from scumbuddy to scumbuddy bussing them. It's possible, but I mean it's hard to honestly believe that. If it really did happen, we already lost as I don't think anyone thinks that. So I will trust that they are not on the same team. Both did not use similar attack styles and IB initially tried to put Mao on tilt. That is very bad to do with a scumbuddy and I don't think he's scum because of it. Making Mao go on tilt could mean that the other scumbuddy (Kank) could get accidentally caught into the mix and tied with Mao because Mao overreacts and then the scumteam is decimated. It's a risky move and I think only a town-scum or town-town would ever have this type of interaction.
Note: I did something similar when EtR called me scum and I said "you scared?"
Kank v. Mao: Now there really wasn't a fight here, but obviously by PoE on my end, Kank has to be scum if IB and Etr are not scumbuddies. But specifically, look at the 2 Mao posts (1 in each of the last spoilers). He goes 180 on Kank and I think that is too inconsistent. He picked a player who made a proper case and piggybacked it as then KCC would take the fall if wrong and not Mao. And if correct as scum (as I suspect), then Mao was 2nd on the wagon and can easily go unnoticed versus players near the hammer and hesitant to go on the wagon.
**********
Now overall, I like IB's mindset when he was scumhunting. I think it's slightly more town than EtR and way more town than Kank.
**********
@Kank and IB: Who do we lynch today?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ask the right questions in the right way and truth is inevitable."
—Lazav
Well, I'm pretty sure Shark is town. Do you wanna just go with that? If we are right, then yay!:hifive::toot::dance: But if we are wrong, at least we'll know exactly which one of us to blame.
-Anyway, Occam says Kank is town, because of the CC. But all other evidence, as well as my gut, is absolutely screaming otherwise (which, of course, is a great reason to try a crazy gambit like CCing a scumbuddy).
-EtR, I really want to believe is town, because of how consistently he was on Mao, but the paranoia part of my brain says the Mao interaction was overdone busing (like how Iso and I played in Starcraft). And the fact that I've had continual suspicions of him all game isn't helping.
-Meanwhile, IB has been so under the radar since joining (to the point where I even forgot he was playing at one point) that I can't help but be suspicious of him now (scum lurking wins games). And Mao's explosive overreaction to IB's vote on him so vastly differs from how he handled every other vote, that logic says busing is by far the most likely cause for such an anomaly.
-As for Shark, well, I had iPot as strongly town all game, and SF hasn't done anything to change that (which itself reinforces my read). Also, I have a lot of trouble picturing him in any of the 3 possible scum teams that would include him. So, I'm writing him off as town and working from there.
Basically, the only one I'm completely unwilling to vote is Shark. And I really doubt I'm going to get a clearer picture than I have already of the other three. -All of which I can imagine as scum. So, Wes, if you are really confident in your EtR read, I'm actually willing to simply go ahead and do what I proposed above. Let's lynch IB&Kank, cross our fingers, and just hope for the best.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
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I didn't have anything more than a strong hunch to go by and I was trying to get more info out of MTG~DDS first, but he ruined that by getting himself modkilled in the process. I did make mention of that while he was still alive.
Here are all of my posts in regards to Garruk vs Liliana & MTG~DDS while MTG~DDS was still alive.
Never once did I vote for him.
I'm most interested in this one where you said your plan was to sit back and watch what you assumed would be a mislynch so you could confirm your theory on the flavor for... what purpose exactly?
799: Rhand starts MTG~DDS wagon
800: TMCT goes iPot
801: iPot poor comment: -1
802: TMCT town response.
803: IB votes MTG and FoS’s TMCT (Chainsaw iPot?) +IB/iPot scumteam
804: Wessel votes MTG, interested in the iPot case.
805: Rhand pushing for proactive Wessel. +town points
806: Looks at JD’s suspects: Mao, EtR, and Rhand. “intrigued w/ iPot case”??? odd counter from prev. post. Likes Rhand and EtR town. Investigating Mao. [-Mao/IB team, +IB/EtR]
807: Null
808: Asks for Mao’s reads. (-Mao/IB)
809: Kank posts: **(Did Kank support Wessel or push for lynch???) either way –town for the “I always believed in you comments”. If he pushed the wagon, --town. Curious of ipot case, +ipot/Kank team (coaching by Kank?). Posing lots of questions and really this post is a bunch of fluff overall. Questions IB about Mao wanting JD dead? Did Kank scumslip??? (+IB/Kank). I know the Kank/ipot team doesn’t exist but this post is pretty bad all around. +++scum
810: MTG: In post has EtR/iPot/Maokun team. No rating on IB at all. Too bad he isn’t scum, for that may be indicative of IB.
811: Maokun: Not “that” suspicious of DDS. (Scumbuddy is on the MTG wagon). Mudslinging cleared town. Bus etr? Has MTG #2 on his list and IB 3rd on the list. I think from this ++IB/Mao and +etr/Mao. Dead guy on townlean. Fun. Relevant later.
812: iPot made a contribution. (–iPot/Mao)
813: Kank: Dear goodness is he seriously scumslipping? +scum Kank. –iPot/Kank for Kank’s reaction.
814: +town iPot.
815: -iPot/Mao. If Kank is scum, iPot cannot be scum as the interactive behavior between Mao and Kank contradict each other (Kank possible coach and Mao totally putting down iPot). Still Mao that’s pretty bad that you could have just not added anyone on a 3rd town lean. It just looks awful there.
816: I pulled up a link in TMCT’s case. This really goes towards the Mao/Kank/Ipot team here:
He asks if scum get safeclaims, which means if Kank and Mao are on the same team, then he is likely not. Case on iPot isn’t bad but iPot is very noobish, timid, etc. I haven’t seen a game where’s he’s been super proactive yet, but that’s all the defense I can provide on my predecessor’s part.
817: Yay fluff by Kank
818: Kank: Question on ipot’s TMCT read. More no-scumhunting.
819: Rhand saying nothing.
820: Wessel sees the same slips I did. Likes TMCT case on iPot and votes him.
821: TMCT speculation: JD kill doesn’t reflect well on EtR. Also doesn’t look on Mao, but that would mean clearing EtR (and others).
822: Votecount
823: Mao points to where EtR said JD was town and then slipped as JD questioned him. +scum Etr for the reasoning Mao provided, but I cant tell still whether or not EtR and Mao are just super bussing each other. It drives me nuts. :\. Ok responses otherwise.
824: Jests on the slips. Too loose about it for my comfort. Scum tend to play a bit looser on joking. Good questioning by Kank to TMCT for iPot interactions.
825: /barns iPot, chainsaw Kank defending iPot?, more /barn iPot. Votes Mao. +iPot/IB. –Kank/IB.
As of this point, I think that Kank is definitely likely to be scum. Most of these posts are not really doing anything proactive. Lots of distant mediating discussion, rather than actively being a part of it. He's wishy-washy with iPot (1 post feels like coaching, the next it looks like he's condemning him). I think Kank is being pretty loose and I think he's scumslipping. [Additionally previous posts today in regards to MTG feel like "Hey look I didnt start the lynch" when he did nothing to really stop it either. That's scum behavior.
Now for scumteams:
iPot (don't care still doing it): Kank is flipfloping on him and Mao basically calls him dumb for his comment in #812. Given my play experience w/ iPot, that's actually a contribution by him and it's against Mao w/o anyone bringing it up. Kank's overreaction in the following post makes it unlikely for a Kank/iPot/Mao team. Additionally in TMCT's case, there's a quote I pull up where iPot asks if scum gets safeclaims. Now given my view on Kank/Mao, this really clears iPot in my mind. But this is me, so I obviously want me to be clean, but I tried to read each post without bias (since I wasn't actually there, it helps).
IB: Given IB's reactions in #825, I dont think that the Kank/IB/Mao team are as likely either. The main reason for it is that IB actually started the Mao wagon. I still have not really read the entire thread so excuse me if I missed any previous scumreads by IB or EtR on Mao, but it feels like scum bussing scum between EtR and Mao since I feel it's been going on for Days, while IB it seems fresher, more likely to be genuine suspicion.
EtR: I still need to get into the next posts in detail, but initially it seems he and Mao had most to gain from jd death and if both are on same side, makes it all the easier.
Taking a break. More thoughts later.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
I've got to be honest, I've had EtR as town all game due to meta; it might be worthwhile to look at him, especially since he gave up on Maokun, it may have been an early attempt at distancing.
@Eron: do you have a completed scum game I can read?
827/828: IB is correct. He didn’t ask for leans, so obviously Wessel should have been on that list and jd probably shouldn’t have. This really looks bad on Maokun. +town IB.
829: Overreaction, -IB/Mao
830: +town IB for instigating more overreactions from Mao.
831: +town iPot for catching contradiction.
832: TMCT: Interactions of iPot to EtR: This could be a scumteam as they do not interact with each other much. Then again, it may mean that they aren’t scum since if the objective is to create interaction that distances themselves from each other. It’s mixed and go both ways here.
833: nothing
834pt1: EtR; Brings up the fact Mao is basing case on flimsy reason. Tangent to a scumgame I replaced into late. It was Basic #68 and I replaced into scum. I didn’t get any traction into the game and just coasted in. When it was near lylo, I basically went all out and called my scumpartner scum and it was terribly obviously. I played horribly, but my partner went unscathed as my flimsy reasoning was what got me through. Similarly in Eeveelution mafia, I did the same thing (D1 replaced in and died N1). I basically went all out on my partner and then he was able to claim I hit him with an attack, so he goes and lives til endgame. Now to the main purpose of all of this, casing scumpartners with flimsy reasons is a pretty strong scumtell. Given the overall interaction between EtR and Mao, ++EtR/Mao scumteam.
834pt2: The scum can have insightful, helpful posts reads like trying to downplay KCCs towniness. Not really strong reason for Maoscum. /barns IB w/o saying it. +IB/EtR. Disagree with EtR’s point from TMCT’s post. For reference: .
I think that he’s subtly defending Mao here, as people can genuinely have only a few reads. Given it’s later on in the game and that can happen, but I don’t know. Last part, if he is scum +Etr/Mao/Kank team, as he basically is echoing thoughts I made earlier.
835: agree to disagree on NK analysis. –IB/Mao/Kank scumteam
836: Nothing
837: supports EtR’s barning of him. +IB/EtR.
838: TMCT responds (iPot Case)
839: IB responds (IPot Case)
840: IB likes iPot case, but thinks Maokun is scummier. Adds opinion on it. +town.
No time for summary as I am migrating elsewhere. But I've noticed that in response to the iPot case, basically everyone agrees but does their own thing afterwards. It means either one of 2 things. 1) iPot is scum and his buddies are avoiding bussing him at that point or 2) Scum want to use that case as a later reference point to get another mislynch but rather stick to their plans.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Check Atagan. D1 during WoD lynch and D2 after DRey replaces in.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Is this saying you cant find reasons iPot is scum, or no real case has been put together yet?
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
I've got free time tomorrow.
Now here's my quick argument from the pov that both of us are town: Kank must be scum. That means he is apart of gambiting the lynch of maokun with his garruk claim. Now that means the scum team is obviously trying hard to distance themselves from each other if that already happens.
If they are willing to do that, why not do that with your other scumbuddy d1 when their lynch isnt even close yet. So it's similar play just not as exquisite as a fake SS cc gambit.
Basically if you did a crazy one, why not do one that requires less planning and more bussing? So it's crazy but it's logical given what has to be true.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
That would make more sense than anything else, wouldn't it?
I mean, why else could Mao have been false claiming? There was already a dead town werewolf, so it's not like he should've been concerned about being auto-lynched over his role name. Plus, why claim Garruk, of all characters? With two known Planeswalkers in the game already, he should've strongly suspected
that the third was here as well, especially after Rhand pointed out that Kank was likely breadcrumbing Garruk. -The whole thing just seems far too suicidal for it to have been anything else.
All I had was my counter-flavor supposition. It certainly wasn't from MTG~DDS's play style.
"Hey guys, my flavor says that Liliana is bad, so she must really be good instead, right?"
You guys would have facepalmed and then yelled at me for flavorgaming.
That and I was suspicious of the non-Wessel people going after MTG~DDS. It was way too fishy to me.
I certainly didn't have enough to go by, and I was taking a big enough risk as it was with someone that I only had a strong hunch was town. Had MTG~DDS flipped scum, then I'd already be on the chopping block today for trying to defend him.
I couldn't save you from lynch in #69 and I had more of a feel that you were town in that game than I've felt in this game. Had Rhand not proven you were town, I'd have already revisited my case on you and IB.
So, what were you waiting to see before claiming? What effect would his flip have had on your claim?
These two posts are of different mindsets and one I believe that shows shark is trying to play town. He clearly says in the first post that he doubts that I am bussing but in the second posts he tries to pivot and say that I am bussing. They are inconsistent and show that he is looking for a way out of his current predicament.
It was a few different things. First, his posts came across as genuine. Second was that I couldn't see a link between him and Shark and I have a much better read on Shark than I did DDS. I should have argued it more, but I didn't have time. Specifically when I posted that we should lynch Shark first and Sharks response was something to the effect of "are you afraid of me." That isn't something that a townie would post.
I do. I have 3 now:
Ataghan - I was lynched day 2
Mean Girls Pretty sure I was lynched day 2, but I can't remember. Either way it was early in the game.
Modern Family This one I replaced in as scum on the final day and just skated till the end.
Since you are like, the third person to say this, I'd like to address it. It's WIFOM of course, but why would I, as scum, decide to start "distancing" against a buddy who was not in the spotlight? Like most people have said at some point or another, that would have been a masterful bus job. Feel free to check out my scum games and see if you think I have that kinda skill yet. Protip: I don't.
Kank and Shark for the scum team. These two are distancing. They are both pushing the other but less so than they are attempting to push IB and I.
If distancing is all you have, then obviously you and IB are distancing yourselves from me.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
I wanted to see if MTG~DDS had any counter flavor on Garruk in return. Two different events threw wrenches in my plans: Maokun falseclaiming Garruk :eek:, and MTG~DDS quoting his private PM :weird:.
He didn't have the counter flavor that I anticipated, so I don't know what else to tell you.
I can open up another box of wine if you want.
So, let's say we had lynched him, and his flip revealed him as town with the sort of counter flavor you had anticipated. -Then what?
I was trying to get that information before he died. If he had the flavor of "I'm fighting Garruk who is my sworn enemy" et al, then I would have been utterly convinced of his town status. I can't picture a scum player having flavor of that sort. I wanted to know his flavor before I shared mine, but that didn't work out either and it ended up not mattering anyway.
I was going to read more tonight, but my stomach is killing me. Family drama + the wrong kind of food =
If today didn't matter, I'd offer myself up to the rope again like I did yesterday.
But then again, had you lynched me yesterday and MTG~DDS were still alive today, would you be willing to counter-flavorgame on his behalf?
Methinks not.
You'd have gone ahead and lynched MTG~DDS today and...game over.
Ahhh! Kank is fearmongering! He's saying that if we lynch him the game will be over!
This would have been so much easier if Mao had really been a scumbomb--isn't that ironic?
I'd be out of the picture and you'd have the same 66.6% chance of hitting scum as I do out of Shark/IB/EtR.
Right now, you (KCC) and Wessel have a 50% chance.
I would type something else here, but I'm feeling too crappy.
1. Initially, I didn't like the fact that it was a claim of Liliana and the flavor felt very dark - Flavor gaming the demons and zombies and devils piece.
2. What I thought I had caught was the brackets around Town Vanilla. I saw the brackets on mine, so I believed that the claim was valid. Then when I was researching some of the dead players conversations, I saw that their death scenes contained the brackets as well. I thought by the way that you had previously phrased the information that you had caught it as well, but when I saw that it was available in the reveals it no longer bothered me.
Ahem.
So... how exactly where you going to see what MTG~DDS was going to flip before he died?
-Wanna try explaining that again?
What effect would his flip have had on your claim? -Let's say we had lynched him, and his flip revealed him as town with the sort of counter flavor you had anticipated. -Then what?
842: Kank: @IB’s quote: So 1 post changes your attitude 180, yet you say it’s his whole attitude lately? Given that TMCT was planning a case when this first part happened, an opportune time to switch gears and jump on a bandwagon, especially if its not on your teammate. –IB/Kank, +scumKank
@EtR’s quote: The heck? He just supported EtR who basically called Mao/Kank scumteam. Lulz. +scumKank.
843: IB: Nothing much, more question.
844: Kank: So I now decide to sit on a fence. Fun. +scum.
845: iPot: Yes you are actively not trying to be town as you aren’t really doing much of note. Basically a “sorry I’m still new here” post. Eh, sympathy points aren’t going to help much. Valid point on being wrong though. I don’t really see him milking that part in other posts. If he were, that would raise red flags, as it would be actively trying to make people see that he sucks and must be town.
846: TMCT: Then again on the iPot post, he has yet to really do much period and has not responded to the TMCT case on him. So that looks bad. Though, if I were being cased as scum, I’d actively try to defend it, so it kinda works both ways.
847: MTGDDS: Not relevant to today
848: Maokun: Calls out ipot for posting redundant info. –Mao/ipot.; Mao actually tries to throw a 3-man team of iPot/IB/EtR. At least 1 is scumbuddy for sure. Probably just the one though given everything else. Also overreacts to EtR, but not in the same manner as iPot I feel. I could be wrong here, but that’s my thoughts there.
849: EtR driving a bus here? Basically doesn’t want to speak to Mao because Mao fails to address the reason that EtR is scum in Mao’s view. IIRC Mao also thought EtR had a flimsy case of him. So I think both sides are trying to actively play against each other here.
850: O hey, he saw the 3-man scumteam. Oddly funny that he said no mafia team would ever set up a 1-2-3 punch, when in my view they set up a pretty convincing gambit w/Kank and Mao, and possibly another w/ EtR and Mao.
851: Nice, scumMao leaves a case on EtR. Also adds in the fact that he thinks EtR’s case is super flimsy that he has to twist words to get lynch. Both are making identical cases here. ++Etr/Mao
852: KCC: O hey, he notices that Kank seems to be oversharing.
853/854: iPot responds to TMCT: No time to read into now. Anyone wanting to case me should probably look here.
855: Wow, Kank. If you are scum, I am surprised your teammates haven’t shut you up yet. Those clever responses are not helping you.
Summary: Kank looks worse, EtR and Mao are going at each other. The interaction between Mao and EtR differs from Mao and iPot, in the sense that I see one being more scum-scum (discredit for distancing) and one more scum-town (discredit to lynch)
If day ended at this moment, Kank should be lynched. EtR would be my guess at scumbuddy.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
I was flavorgaming and it didn't work.
Is that what you want to hear?
Originally, I was content to wait and see what MTG~DDS really was, but the more I thought about it, the more counter-flavor whirled around in my mind telling me that he was going to be town. I asked him about it, he revealed too much, and got himself modkilled instead.
I don't know how else you want me to answer the same question over and over again.
If me trying to use flavor to save MTG~DDS's life makes me the bad guy, then lynch me. It makes a lot more sense to me to look closely at the people that wanted him dead without a good reason than the people that wanted him kept alive and never once voted for him.
But you didn't. You let him die.
He got himself modkilled. There's a big difference.
No there isn't. You could have said all that stuff before he quoted and possibly turned it around for him. You chose to sit back while there was a healthy mob when you had this gut feel. Why not put it out there?
Funny how you say that yet I don't think you are convinced of that fact. How come?
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Uhhh, I don't see him at all detracting from the mislynch. The closest thing to detracting is saying that I am scum. Where does EtR say this?
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Apathy mixed with frustration. I haven't had the time to fully reread this game like I wanted to. I wrote off too many people too early and didn't pay close enough attention to them because of that.
I fully expect to be the lynch candidate for today. It makes sense for me to be scum. (It made sense for MTG~DDS to be scum too--all I had was a hunch otherwise.) Whoever the real team is, they're better at this than I am.
So you are basically piggybacking Wessel? I haven't had the time I wanted to until recent but look at the past 2 days and see who is likely scumteam from there. Scum at this point want to win with the mislynch. There's a shot scum may bus and take that for the win as well. Who out of the remaining players is playing like genuine town. You have two players to go off of at this point to confirm their behavior throughout the game (Wessel/KCC)
Also, I never got a reason KCC was confirmed town, but KCC is playing enough like town for me to not care that much anymore. Bringing up who to trust does matter when it comes down to this point, so a reason for this would be helpful, though I think it's pretty clear otherwise.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
IB behaved like town when pressuring Mao initially and I believe it to be genuine. Additionally just the interactions between each of the key players that I honestly think IB is town.
Also, I may skip ahead on my reads til I replace in so I can see how the Maokun wagon appeared, where EtR unvoted maokun, and where Kank claims Garruk. I will have to see how many posts I have to readthrough in depth and how much time I have
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Kank is the only player I am comfortable enough to call scum. Too many things I see read scum. I mean if you look at the posts I've analyzed I have at least some complaint on each post Kank has made.
EtR is next on the list. I am pretty sure it's him and Id bet money he's scumbuddies with Kank and Mao, but I cannot be 100 percent ever because of his interaction w/ Mao. My goal today now seriously has to be see how EtR evolved from Mao to TMCT, see the development of the Mao wagon to his jump off it. If I am satisfied there that he's scum bussing and jumping off, then I will be confident enough that he's scum.
IB interactions with Mao look town as he basically is goading Mao to go on tilt with "U Mad?" posts. It's a tactic that can really give solid reads off of and I don't know if IB would do it to his scumbuddy. Though then again my argument on etr can be used here.
Kank: 100% scum
EtR: 80%
IB: 20%
everyone else: 0%
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
What are the differences between IB's interactions with Mao and mine?
You rolled over real quick on that. And there is another option. I'm still of the mindset that you and Shark are scum.
Wessel (2) infectiousbaloth, Rhand
Kosakosa (4) Maokun, Wessel, Kankennon, MzztrTetris
Rhand (1) The Most Curious Thing
Maokun (2) EtR, jdisawesomesauce
Kankennon (1) KosaKosa
Not voting: KittyCupCake, iPot
Maokun (2) EtR, jdisawesomesauce
Wessel (6) infectiousbaloth, The Most Curious Thing, KittyCupCake, Kankennon, Rhand, MTG~DDS
Not voting: iPot, Maokun, Wessel
Maokun (5) Wessel, infectiousbaloth, KCC, TMCT, Kankennon
MTG~DDS (1) Rhand
infectiousbaloth (2): Maokun, SharkFinnigan
TMCT (1) EtR
Not voting: MTG~DDS
I think this votecount is telling. First - I had unvoted TMCT so I'm not sure why I was still showing up but more importantly is where I've bolded. I can't see IB and Shark on the same team with this vote count taken into effect. That would mean all 3 scum were tied up with each other. I can't see this happening and to me with my current leans on each other cements Shark as scum.
Also iPot avoided the first two lynching votes.
Looking at IB, he's actively trying to make Mao make a mistake. He's trying to get him on tilt and make him slip. That's not a scum-scum bus relationship.
You and Mao are basically trying to discredit each other's CASES on each other, siting basically that they were based on nothing. This is an easy way to try to distance yourself from Mao and I can easily see that as bussing.
iPot and Mao is where iPot brings up a point against Mao and Mao basically attacks iPot as a player as a whole. Not the point, but the player. That's different from you and Mao. I really don't see that as a scum-scum bussing relationship.
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@IB: Reread EtR from D3 til now and see how that molds with his meta. I know you've played with him a bit and see how that goes. Also, if you are really having a hard time making a case for me being scum, try building town cases on the 3 of us (Kank, EtR, and me). If then you cannot find reasons for me to be town, then obviously PoE would have to tell you I am scum. Which you'd be wrong, but at least you'd feel better about it since you could actively justify yourself.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
I hope you're scum after this arguement. When someone presents a case on you, you argue against it....
If you're really going to try and get me mislynched use the more obvious stuff that I was wrong about. Here I'll help: I pushed for PSR over KK on day one. I also backed off Mao when no one else was seeing it but IB. Also, I pushed TMCT to claim because I didn't believe him. There's 3 for you to start with.
Lastly for now, if you think I'm scum, who's my partner? You could say IB, but that would require Me, IB and Mao to have gone at each other through the whole game. Me, Kank and Mao is a little more likely but that would require you to believe that Kank sat on the sidelines and was pushing both of us subtly so he could distance later. Unfortunately, Kank said several times he thought we were both town. If both of us were his scum buddy, why wouldn't he take that opportunity to bus one or the both of us since it got pretty ugly there for awhile.
The only other option would be Me, you and Mao. Actually, of the three pairings presented here, this is the most likely. I haven't interacted with you/iPot very much this game and Mao didn't either IIRC.
If you remove me from the equation that leaves IB, Kank and Mao; IB, You and Mao or You, Kank and Mao. Lets take a look:
IB, Kank and Mao - Possible but not likely. The samething I said about Me, Kank and Mao apply here. I don't believe IB is bussing and if he is he's getting booted out of the midcard mafia leaving just me. (See the end of King of the Hill for reference).
OH!!! As a quick aside - I told you all (mostly none of you since nobody was around in the beginning) to read KotH Mafia because Mao was playing differently! <-point for me
Next would be IB, You and Mao: again possible, but I don't believe IB to be scum. But same applies from before with you and Mao.
Lastly, you, Kank and Mao. This is where the scum team resides. It all matches. Kank stays outside my fight with Mao but when forced to choose picked me as more town. IPot and Mao had limited interaction. Then today you and Kank have been GENTLY pushing each other while trying to steer to another - either me or IB.
Anyway, that was long and ranty but at the end of the day you two should just concede.
As mentioned I plan to look into the latter one. I am sorry that I replaced in and have not been in game the entire time. I am judging by the body of work but it seems like Mao is a fall to guy to push. I want to see if your push of TMCT is genuine and not to try to detract from a potential Mao lynch.
As mentioned a number of times I've said Kank. I am trying to figure out the Kank/EtR angle, but given I am pretty deadset on Kank scum, you and Mao pushing each other all game isn't a stretch, especially given that Kank falseclaimed a scummate. Kank seems to play a bit too cocky and loose with his theories especially D3, so it really wouldn't surprise me that you all are scummates.
Honestly, if I had not replaced in, I'd be looking here more than you, Kank, or IB, but I am town, so that ruins this theory.
IB's still a possibility with Kank for much of the similar reasons I have for you.
Next would be IB, You and Mao: again possible, but I don't believe IB to be as scummy as you.
Also, +town points depending on how early you actually said that.
Huh? How is Kank forced to choose you as more town? When were you ever pushed? I don't get what you are trying to do there.
And if you have actually read my D3 readthrough, you'd basically know that I've settled on Kank as scum and should be lynched today. I don't get how you see me as trying to detract from that. I am now trying to decide who is his partner.
Your post actually does bring a good point I want to ask now.
@IB, Kank, Shark, and EtR: Who do we lynch today? It's a one word answer and that's all that really matters in the end.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
If I wasn't already me or if it wouldn't make everyone take me off their Christmas card mailing list, I'd probably vote for myself. I don't have a clear case or view on anyone right now.
I just finished rereading Day 1 and have three fresh pages of notes which I'll be sure to share tomorrow work permitting. Don't kill anybody yet!
I don't understand. Why do you want me not to stop talking to Shark?
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I am surprised how quickly EtR and Mao just stopped voting each other and went on their merry way. The development was not as hoped, but it's odd for them to go after each other than not.
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I like how the moment TMCT votes Kank w/o reason, both Mao and EtR jump on him. Chainsaw the scumbuddy?
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Now Kank looks terrible here and Mao's quick to barn here. Odd behavior given earlier state. Additionally, Mao did not add anything new to the argument, but rather /barn KCC. This to me is a bus vote.
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Now to answer your question Wessel, it all circles around Mao.
Mao v. EtR: We all know how they basically dismissed each others arguments as they were "flimsy" reasons. They kept going at each other until enough people were able to write them off as town v. town. Rhand specifically I saw say this. Obviously now it's not town v. town, so it's important to see how they go after each other. Both use similar reasons attacking the case.
IB v. Mao: Now this one mainly occurred after EtR v. Mao, like literally Mao jumped on IB. There is very little chance Mao jumps from scumbuddy to scumbuddy bussing them. It's possible, but I mean it's hard to honestly believe that. If it really did happen, we already lost as I don't think anyone thinks that. So I will trust that they are not on the same team. Both did not use similar attack styles and IB initially tried to put Mao on tilt. That is very bad to do with a scumbuddy and I don't think he's scum because of it. Making Mao go on tilt could mean that the other scumbuddy (Kank) could get accidentally caught into the mix and tied with Mao because Mao overreacts and then the scumteam is decimated. It's a risky move and I think only a town-scum or town-town would ever have this type of interaction.
Note: I did something similar when EtR called me scum and I said "you scared?"
Kank v. Mao: Now there really wasn't a fight here, but obviously by PoE on my end, Kank has to be scum if IB and Etr are not scumbuddies. But specifically, look at the 2 Mao posts (1 in each of the last spoilers). He goes 180 on Kank and I think that is too inconsistent. He picked a player who made a proper case and piggybacked it as then KCC would take the fall if wrong and not Mao. And if correct as scum (as I suspect), then Mao was 2nd on the wagon and can easily go unnoticed versus players near the hammer and hesitant to go on the wagon.
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Now overall, I like IB's mindset when he was scumhunting. I think it's slightly more town than EtR and way more town than Kank.
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@Kank and IB: Who do we lynch today?
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
Given iPots postage style and my longer posts of late, I totally outposted him.
—Lazav
_______________________________________________
Mafia Stats
Summary:
Total Win %: 40%
Total Scum Win %: 60%
Total Town Win %: 20%
Total Neutral Win %: 0%
I don't know, is that the truth?
Consistently? In a way that both makes sense and actually answers the question?
Well, I'm pretty sure Shark is town. Do you wanna just go with that? If we are right, then yay!:hifive::toot::dance: But if we are wrong, at least we'll know exactly which one of us to blame.
-Anyway, Occam says Kank is town, because of the CC. But all other evidence, as well as my gut, is absolutely screaming otherwise (which, of course, is a great reason to try a crazy gambit like CCing a scumbuddy).
-EtR, I really want to believe is town, because of how consistently he was on Mao, but the paranoia part of my brain says the Mao interaction was overdone busing (like how Iso and I played in Starcraft). And the fact that I've had continual suspicions of him all game isn't helping.
-Meanwhile, IB has been so under the radar since joining (to the point where I even forgot he was playing at one point) that I can't help but be suspicious of him now (scum lurking wins games). And Mao's explosive overreaction to IB's vote on him so vastly differs from how he handled every other vote, that logic says busing is by far the most likely cause for such an anomaly.
-As for Shark, well, I had iPot as strongly town all game, and SF hasn't done anything to change that (which itself reinforces my read). Also, I have a lot of trouble picturing him in any of the 3 possible scum teams that would include him. So, I'm writing him off as town and working from there.
Basically, the only one I'm completely unwilling to vote is Shark. And I really doubt I'm going to get a clearer picture than I have already of the other three. -All of which I can imagine as scum. So, Wes, if you are really confident in your EtR read, I'm actually willing to simply go ahead and do what I proposed above. Let's lynch IB&Kank, cross our fingers, and just hope for the best.