I'm going to hold off on AE for the moment because we have two major points to discuss currently (EP and Manders), and I don't want to muddy the waters further. I'm working on my AE post on the side currently and I'll post it once things die down a little. I don't want to waste IB's work, and we need to figure out this EP situation.
...if you didn't. What do you you think of my theories regarding Manders? Obviously you put a ton of work into those two posts, I'm just curious why you came to the opposite conclusion I did from when I reviewed her. Also: why did you choose now to post this? I don't want to demean your work here, but I question the timing. I feel like this is a very random time to bring Manders back into it.
For EP:
@D_M -- thanks for this:
Quote from D_M »
This paragraph bothers me. The actual content is fine, but it's very...passive. It's just noting the "facts" rather than showing genuine interest. He's noting what his stance is without taking an active role. It's the kind of post I'd make when if I'd sat down trying to think of what position to take for a while, rather than what I'd write when having a gut reaction of "hey, this dude is scummy." As mentioned above, the lack of vote is also odd and not what I'd expect of a town E_P.
I think you just articulated something I've been having a hard time putting into words about what's been bothering me about AE this whole game. I'll save that for later
However, I'm not sure that it applies to EP. It reads to me more that EP honestly didn't like IB's wagon, but acknowledged that there is a chance that he could be wrong. It's a hard thing knowing when to commit in this game. I know that I still see EP as town at this point, but I don't want to commit to his defense until I do a reread of him. It seems to me to not be a "scum" attitude so much as a "player" attitude. Saying that town gives no ****s is weird, because I should think that every player in the game wants to do well. It's simple competitive nature:
If EP is scum, he wants to win.
If EP is town, he wants to win.
If EP is (other), he wants to win.
If Town!EP, then why would he want to jump on a wagon he believes is bad? If Scum!EP, why wouldn't he want to push that wagon harder rather than abstain, since he would -know- that IB is town? Your explanation actually sits better if Neutral!EP, because then I could see him wanting to stay out of the limelight a little more....which doesn't make sense when you consider the rest of his Day 1 play, which I believe most have agreed seemed strongly town. I dunno. I need to reread EP before I commit to his defense, but my gut is screaming at me that somebody needs to look at Cyan. Cyan's had his fingers in every wagon so far in a big way, either pushing it or halting it. Are we just assuming that Cyan is town and should be trusted because he's the most experienced player in the game? Obviously Town!Cyan would be a huge asset, but as yet I don't think that his alignment has been discussed at all, and since he's the primary driver of the EP wagon that Voxx started, I feel like he should be scrutinized somewhat before we accept his opinion of EP as law. Then again, that also adds another level of confusion to the discussion right now that I'm trying to avoid. Blah. Brb reading.
I'm going to hold off on AE for the moment because we have two major points to discuss currently (EP and Manders), and I don't want to muddy the waters further. I'm working on my AE post on the side currently and I'll post it once things die down a little. I don't want to waste IB's work, and we need to figure out this EP situation.
...if you didn't. What do you you think of my theories regarding Manders? Obviously you put a ton of work into those two posts, I'm just curious why you came to the opposite conclusion I did from when I reviewed her. Also: why did you choose now to post this? I don't want to demean your work here, but I question the timing. I feel like this is a very random time to bring Manders back into it.
For EP:
@D_M -- thanks for this:
I think you just articulated something I've been having a hard time putting into words about what's been bothering me about AE this whole game. I'll save that for later
However, I'm not sure that it applies to EP. It reads to me more that EP honestly didn't like IB's wagon, but acknowledged that there is a chance that he could be wrong. It's a hard thing knowing when to commit in this game. I know that I still see EP as town at this point, but I don't want to commit to his defense until I do a reread of him. It seems to me to not be a "scum" attitude so much as a "player" attitude. Saying that town gives no ****s is weird, because I should think that every player in the game wants to do well. It's simple competitive nature:
If EP is scum, he wants to win.
If EP is town, he wants to win.
If EP is (other), he wants to win.
If Town!EP, then why would he want to jump on a wagon he believes is bad? If Scum!EP, why wouldn't he want to push that wagon harder rather than abstain, since he would -know- that IB is town? Your explanation actually sits better if Neutral!EP, because then I could see him wanting to stay out of the limelight a little more....which doesn't make sense when you consider the rest of his Day 1 play, which I believe most have agreed seemed strongly town. I dunno. I need to reread EP before I commit to his defense, but my gut is screaming at me that somebody needs to look at Cyan. Cyan's had his fingers in every wagon so far in a big way, either pushing it or halting it. Are we just assuming that Cyan is town and should be trusted because he's the most experienced player in the game? Obviously Town!Cyan would be a huge asset, but as yet I don't think that his alignment has been discussed at all, and since he's the primary driver of the EP wagon that Voxx started, I feel like he should be scrutinized somewhat before we accept his opinion of EP as law. Then again, that also adds another level of confusion to the discussion right now that I'm trying to avoid. Blah. Brb reading.
I drew the opposite conclusion as you because my analysis is in light of SharkFoxigan flipping scum. I did read your analysis of Manders' wagon, but I don't necessarily agree with the conclusions you drew. Also, I chose this time because I don't see EP or Cyan as scum, and I feel we're all ignoring Manders after her implosion yesterday and her vehement defense of SharkFox in the early part of the game. This casts her in a very bad light, but we're all up in arms about a bad post EP made.
EWP: Hit post WAY too soon. EP doesn't read scummy to me outside of that single post and he has responded well to the pressure he has gotten for that bad post.
If you think Cyan and EP are both town, then who is the scum on this wagon?
I believe there is at least one scum between Cyan, EP and Cyouni, with the possibility of 2. I have a larger post in the works regarding this that I'll do later.
Manders is possible scum, sure. But she's about 6th in line for me, and only makes sense if some of my stronger scum reads flip town.
If Cyan and Cyouni are both town, yeah, Manders is almost definitely scum. Jobie still looks awful here. Making a note to address him in post later, too.
This all assumes that you are town, of course, but I'm pretty sure that's the case.
@Silver
I understand where you're coming from with AE, but he's town. Look at wagons again with that in mind, and tell me who you think likely scum are.
That's fair RE written post-Shark flip. I believe this is still relevant, however:
Quote from Me »
AE was the first, although Cyan gets the dubious honors of inspiring it with a strongly anti-Manders post that happened to not have a vote in it. Shark was the 2nd person to vote her, followed by Cyan. Manders then seemingly rage-claimed, followed by votes from IB, Jobie**, and Manders herself once her wagon stalled at 5 votes, which put her high tide @ 6. Something like 5 pages of no further votes occurred, and then Shark unvoted her, to put her back to 5 for the last votecount.
**: It had come up at least twice previously that Jobie felt or said that Manders was/seemed town. Suddenly, as the Manders wagon is gaining steam, Jobie hops on despite calling Manders town all game. This seems pretty scummy to me.
Shark flipped scum, which means one of two things: if S!Manders, scum were trying to bus her, which means that everyone on her wagon needs to be looked at (supported by Manders voting herself and trying to get herself killed); or, if T!Manders, scum were pushing her wagon for a mislynch and she just imploded for whatever reason.
Honestly, in light of Shark's flip, you're right, and S!Manders does look more likely. So here's another question for you, IB: if we operate under the assumption of S!Manders, do we bother to lynch her since she isn't currently even playing the game, really, or do we poke AE, Cyan, and Jobie and see how many jimmies we rustle? What are the odds that scum were attempting to bus Manders, as compared to just Shark voting her? Her self-vote makes me think a bus attempt, honestly, which suggests that at least one more person on her wagon is scum.
I suppose it's possible we go the other way, because if we lynch Manders and she flips scum, then that all but confirms more scum on her wagon. I have no idea what the better course of action is. I do believe that it's a little early in the Day to pull any triggers, though. There's a lot that needs looked at yet.
The possibilities are Voxx, TIM, E_P, AE, and obviously, Shark.
Shark was scum. I'm not leaning scum on any of those players, but E_P is a lean town for me.
I believe there is at least one scum between Cyan, EP and Cyouni, with the possibility of 2. I have a larger post in the works regarding this that I'll do later.
I look forward to it.
Manders is possible scum, sure. But she's about 6th in line for me, and only makes sense if some of my stronger scum reads flip town.
If you don't mind answering, who is ahead of Manders?
If Cyan and Cyouni are both town, yeah, Manders is almost definitely scum. Jobie still looks awful here. Making a note to address him in post later, too.
This all assumes that you are town, of course, but I'm pretty sure that's the case.
I see Cyan and Cyouni as both town, as I stated earlier. Jobie looks poor and has all game.
That's fair RE written post-Shark flip. I believe this is still relevant, however:
Shark flipped scum, which means one of two things: if S!Manders, scum were trying to bus her, which means that everyone on her wagon needs to be looked at (supported by Manders voting herself and trying to get herself killed); or, if T!Manders, scum were pushing her wagon for a mislynch and she just imploded for whatever reason.
Were they trying to bus her? Who do you think is trying to bus manders?
Honestly, in light of Shark's flip, you're right, and S!Manders does look more likely. So here's another question for you, IB: if we operate under the assumption of S!Manders, do we bother to lynch her since she isn't currently even playing the game, really, or do we poke AE, Cyan, and Jobie and see how many jimmies we rustle? What are the odds that scum were attempting to bus Manders, as compared to just Shark voting her? Her self-vote makes me think a bus attempt, honestly, which suggests that at least one more person on her wagon is scum.
If you want to see a perfect case of where the town let scum win by not lynching a scummy player, go read Triskelion mafia. We had Zenjo pinned down, and by not lynching him to go after "bigger fish", the town lost.
I suppose it's possible we go the other way, because if we lynch Manders and she flips scum, then that all but confirms more scum on her wagon. I have no idea what the better course of action is. I do believe that it's a little early in the Day to pull any triggers, though. There's a lot that needs looked at yet.
I'm not sure what you're getting at here with more scum being on the wagon. Can you explain?
Okay, if I've got my definitions right, bussing is when the scum team decides to "throw one under the bus." They vote for one of their own in order to make the rest of the team look town, which allows them to arbitrate as many mislynchs as they want.
So, what if that's what's happening with Manders? We've already confirmed one scum that was on her wagon. If Manders gets lynched and flips scum, then considering her wagon and her self-vote, doesn't that almost mandate that there are more scum present there? It's entirely possible that I'm reading too much into this and Manders just imploded for whatever random reason and Shark was the only scum that voted her, just to vote her. But the circumstances seem odd enough to me that it's worth throwing the theory out there, at least. I'll reiterate my theory once more, just so that it's out there nice and clearly:
-) Shark flipped scum (fact)
-) Manders claimed at L-7 and self-voted shortly thereafter (fact)
-) Shark was on Manders' wagon (fact)
-) Manders has been, at the least, anti-town all game (questionably fact)
-) Jobie was also on Manders' wagon (fact)
-) Jobie has been suspicious all game (my opinion)
-) Jobie is scum (assumption)
-) Shark + Jobie makes 2 scum on Manders' wagon (following the assumption)
-) AE has been reading scummy to me all game (fact. note that I haven't reread him yet)
-) AE is scum (assumption)
-) Shark + Jobie + AE = 3 scum on Manders' wagon (following the assumptions)
-) Scum were trying to bus Manders (thesis)
You can also start at the bottom and work back up:
-) Scum were trying to bus Manders (thesis)
-) Shark was scum (fact)
-) Jobie is possible scum (reasonable assumption in light of the thesis and everyone else on the wagon)
-) There might be more scum on the wagon (reasonable assumption)
Okay, if I've got my definitions right, bussing is when the scum team decides to "throw one under the bus." They vote for one of their own in order to make the rest of the team look town, which allows them to arbitrate as many mislynchs as they want.
So, what if that's what's happening with Manders? We've already confirmed one scum that was on her wagon. If Manders gets lynched and flips scum, then considering her wagon and her self-vote, doesn't that almost mandate that there are more scum present there? It's entirely possible that I'm reading too much into this and Manders just imploded for whatever random reason and Shark was the only scum that voted her, just to vote her. But the circumstances seem odd enough to me that it's worth throwing the theory out there, at least. I'll reiterate my theory once more, just so that it's out there nice and clearly:
-) Shark flipped scum (fact)
-) Manders claimed at L-7 and self-voted shortly thereafter (fact)
-) Shark was on Manders' wagon (fact)
-) Manders has been, at the least, anti-town all game (questionably fact)
-) Jobie was also on Manders' wagon (fact)
-) Jobie has been suspicious all game (my opinion)
-) Jobie is scum (assumption)
-) Shark + Jobie makes 2 scum on Manders' wagon (following the assumption)
-) AE has been reading scummy to me all game (fact. note that I haven't reread him yet)
-) AE is scum (assumption)
-) Shark + Jobie + AE = 3 scum on Manders' wagon (following the assumptions)
-) Scum were trying to bus Manders (thesis)
You can also start at the bottom and work back up:
-) Scum were trying to bus Manders (thesis)
-) Shark was scum (fact)
-) Jobie is possible scum (reasonable assumption in light of the thesis and everyone else on the wagon)
-) There might be more scum on the wagon (reasonable assumption)
That make sense?
Yes it does. I don't necessarily agree with your assumptions, but I understand how you drew the conclusion.
EP has been surprisingly reasonable in his responses. I'm willing to give him a pass for now.Unvote
I think that we should look at AE. His posts to me today have been ridiculous. He didn't actually contribute much yesterday. And SF lynched himself almost immediately after AE voted for him. Also worth noting is where AE flat-out says 'if I vote and he's scum he'll probably self-hammer'. And then SF does..exactly that. It all reads pretty badly IMO. Vote AE
EP has been surprisingly reasonable in his responses. I'm willing to give him a pass for now.Unvote
I think that we should look at AE. His posts to me today have been ridiculous. He didn't actually contribute much yesterday. And SF lynched himself almost immediately after AE voted for him. Also worth noting is where AE flat-out says 'if I vote and he's scum he'll probably self-hammer'. And then SF does..exactly that. It all reads pretty badly IMO. Vote AE
Its about time some scum picked up on that. Your reaching for anything. About time you vote me too. Couldn't get any info from fishing me so now your going to try and get through a wagon claim. Nice that you jump off EP now that it looks like a Manders wagon will be picking back up and vote me.
Over a miller? What do you think he's trying to pull?
I don't see an issue at all here. Theres plenty of roles out there. Whats the issue of not knowing one that you haven't been involved with?
How about going on behavior and not giving everyone a pass on what they claim?
Its very simple. Ask or go look them up. What your doing here is smearing to paint Fox in a scummy light.
Vote Void
Kpacas mouth must be watering reading this game.
Defends SharkFoxigan, votes Void. Shark is scum, I find Void townie.
Me? What?
You have an issue with her asking what a certain role is?
Whats the relevance? Two I believe. No millers
"playing ignorance" is not smearing? "Not sitting well with you does not indicate you think she is townie. More like scummy.
What your asking has nothing to do with town/scum.
No reason to wait. His reactions to his wagon are incredibly scummy - trying to distract at first ("you're still the SK" to IB, arguing about neutrals with Ahylis) to defeated resignation without actually having made any attempt to defend himself.
So Cyan wanted to keep things going but now has a problem with how the day ended.
Defending? Try pressuring Void who I believed scum at the time. Now this is a misrep. Nice try.
Not even close bud. Reread that and explain how thats a misrep.
Fantastic. I did that on purpose and look who jumps right in. Ignoring Cyans fish attempts.
This post by IB is so scummy in the way he tries to spin my posts.
If anyone cares to lynch Cyan or IB I'll be over here waiting.
I keep thinking back to GOO where you lurked like you are here and started in on me and went on your way to being lynched scum, with the help of your bud TACKY. I almost brought this up D1 for something Shalako could think about for his options but I wanted to see if you in fact would come around to single me out. Now you have. D2, just like last time. This is going to be good.
I'm still waiting on IB's defense of his waffling re:Foxlet. Still not expecting an answer.
Town bulletproof. Do with it what you will. Ahlyis and Reya still ping my scumdar, and at least one of the more experienced players (Cyan, Manders, etc.) is almost certainly also scum. There's probably daychat.
So good. In your eyes theres a good chance Cyan is scum but this is the second time you follow his lead.
I say one of the more experienced players is almost certainly scum. Cyan and Manders are mentioned as examples. You say: "There's a good chance Cyan is scum." That is completely misrepresenting what I said. You also count as an experienced player.
So I claim miller in the second post of the game, almost literally asking to be vigged, and you think I'm lying about it as a result.
Amazing logic there.
Oh? Let's see here.
Waffle #1.
Absolutely no opinion, even when it's stating that Foxlet lied. Waffle #2.
Waffle #3.
Waffle #4. Note how there's absolutely no opinion on Fox's alignment.
And right after that, he claims that he thought that Foxlet was scummy all game...after more than enough people have expressed that they think Foxlet's scummy.
1. That's not a waffle at all. I thought Foxlet was lying and didn't know what to make of it.
2. I didn't make an opinion because I didn't have one at that time, I just knew Foxlet was lying.
3. I can actually see the justification for this being a waffle, though I don't consider it one.
4. Now this is just blatantly wrong. I didn't throw a vote down, but "scummy at worst and anti-town at best" is certainly an opinion on her alignment.
Perhaps you and I just have a different opinion of what "waffle" means.
I say one of the more experienced players is almost certainly scum. Cyan and Manders are mentioned as examples. You say: "There's a good chance Cyan is scum." That is completely misrepresenting what I said. You also count as an experienced player.
At the time of that posting was/is there a good chance Cyan being scum?
MH also looks bad, and is one of the other people that I am majorly suspicious of. Ironically, one of your points against MH is that 'she gave up because multiple other scum were voting for her already. AE was one of the other people voting for her. But honestly, that is putting the cart before the horse. We know that MH imploded. We know that at least one scum was already voting for her. We know that she defended a known scum. But you are just speculating that she imploded because multiple scumbuddies were voting for her.
I love it when all of the pieces of the picture fit together, but you have to be careful not to MAKE them fit together.
I think that we should take a step back and look at the SF wagon, which IB has already started to do. Of the people on it, I see IB, SS, and Voxx all being likely town. That leaves Cyouni, Ahylis, EP, AE, and TIM(and myself, but I'm obviously not trying to wagon me). I believe Cyouni's miller claim. Behaviorally, he has been very town. I am willing to accept Ahylis survivor claim for now(though seriously, the first time that someone has a Vig shot, they should point it at him). That leaves EP, AE, and TIM. I want to let a little more time pass with EP to see what happens there. That leaves AE and TIM. TIM's behavior has been insubstantial, but not as bad as AE's IMO.
So after careful consideration...yeah I still just want to lynch AE.
And now that I have previewed, I see that AE has come along and pretty much just thrown himself into the frying pan. The point that Cyouni brought up is particularly relevant.
@AE: It's amusing that you are trying to accuse anyone that you can of fishing(and are wrong each time), but then proceed to fish me instead. Nice try sir.
I think it's possible that he's scum with EP, too. Go back and look at the interactions we had after I made the initial case. When I asked him who was scum on that wagon if EP was town, he changed his mind pretty rapidly. I'm confident that at least one of them is scum, and I'd say there's a decent chance that they both are.
That same analysis of mine that Cyan just tried to use falls apart when you mark AE down as town.
TIM also started the wagon on Shark after the Manders one fell apart.
TIM is town.
That leaves 3 people. Cyan, EP, and Cyouni.
If one of them is not scum, that means no scum voted for their doomed teammate.
Yeah, that's not the case. I'm sure there is 1 or 2 scum not on that wagon, and I want to look at Void and Jobie in particular, after this is resolved.
That same analysis of mine that Cyan just tried to use falls apart when you mark AE down as town.
TIM also started the wagon on Shark after the Manders one fell apart.
TIM is town.
That leaves 3 people. Cyan, EP, and Cyouni.
If one of them is not scum, that means no scum voted for their doomed teammate.
Yeah, that's not the case. I'm sure there is 1 or 2 scum not on that wagon, and I want to look at Void and Jobie in particular, after this is resolved.
Jobie interests me. Also, we haven't heard from Gricky in a while, which concerns me. I don't think that any of Cyan, Cyouni, or EP are scum, but if I were to order them from least townie to most, I would say EP, Cyan, Cyouni, with Cyouni being the most town by a hefty margin.
You knew it looked Scummy, but were waiting for someone else to point it out first. That about right?
Who does that? Not Town. If Town did something stupid, I'd expect them to own up to it, not sit on it and hope either nobody noticed, or try to turn it back on whoever does finally notice it.
TIM started the push on Shark, as my vote was still there from RVS (though I left it there because I was convinced Foxlet (and therefore her replacement) was scum.
Ahlyis is a survivor who jumped on this wagon the second it started, effectively confirming him as the role.
You are town bulletproof.
Silver is town redirector.
AE is town. I don't wish to say why at the moment, but it is role related, and no, I'm not the cop.
This leaves three people.
Cyan
Cyouni
Emo_Pinata
Cyouni is a miller claim. I believed it unconditionally initially, but after re-reading day one, I really did not like his vote effectively sitting on you all day, even after it was obvious that the wagon was not happening, until he hopped on the Shark wagon once it looked inevitable. I don't think he's as likely to be scum as EP or Cyan, but I do want him vigged at some point.
EP, I effectively stated this exact case on at start of day, and his reaction did nothing to make me think he is town in the least.
Cyan's reaction and interactions with me were pretty interesting, too.
I can easily see them both being scum, but I am confident that at least one of them is scum.
@Voxx: I like your rationale, but having just re-read every E_P post (admittedly, not all with context), I can't see any of his posting coming from a scum mindset. Cyan, as I said before, is a total enigma, but I don't really see his posts coming from a scum mindset either. I've been taking Cyouni at his word that he's a miller, but perhaps I should go ahead and re-read Cyouni and analyze him despite the miller claim.
@AE: It's amusing that you are trying to accuse anyone that you can of fishing(and are wrong each time), but then proceed to fish me instead. Nice try sir.
I re-read the entire thread overnight and took notes along the way, as well, IB.
Emo Pinata
#24 - Fluff
#62 - Miller joke, excuses for limited posting.
#122 - Calls IB 'very eager' for jumping on Foxlet.
#122 - Hates basing a wagon on something like this. Doesn't want held accountable for what he knows is a town flip?
#122 - Use of 'frustrating' feels like a faked town tell.
#122 - Starts the Silver suspicion, but does not vote. This looks terrible.
#147 - Semi-fluffy comment about the number of emoticons Foxlet uses. Commenting on Foxlet without really committing, maybe?
#147 - This is interesting. He links Fox/Silver together - potentially setting up a bus on Fox, but making sure some town go with them?
#147 - The backhanded accusation of IB barning Cyan for the Foxlet vote as a defense of her looks bad. He does this while barning Cyan.
#185 - Parks vote on Silver to inflate bandwagon, and vanishes.
#196 - I don't like this post. Feels like he's asking a leading question to change Cyan's mind about his read on IB.
#214 - 'Why do you want to be confirmed as town?' Just a bad question.
#236 - 'Oh no it's starting again.' Fluffy post that isn't content. Pretty common so far.
#251 - Fluff. Buddying Cyan.
#284 - Strange post. Semi-fluff, semi-barning Cyan.
#331 - Picks apart Silver's wall, when it's pretty obvious that wagon is not going to happen. Trying to reignite it?
#379 - Asks Silver how he prepped for the game. Which Silver had already answered. Semi-fluff, proves he isn't paying attention to thread.
#405 - 'You replaced Foxlet, right?' Look at how they totally can't be aligned, guys!
#418 - Still poking Silver. Why? It's not going to happen, so it's like he's trying to be seen doing something.
#475 - 'What's stalling Silver's wagon?' Attempt to reignite the mislynch. Silver is clear town at this point.
#496 - Some fearmongering about deadline. Which is still TWO WEEKS away. Attempt to get a mislynch going when the options are town?
#529 - Pops back in after promise to catch up with semi-fluff.
#548 - Comments on Manders' frustration. Been forever since actual content from him.
#592 - Called Null Town by SharkFinnigan.
#613 - Amazingly bad vote on SharkFinnigan. Scum bussing all the way.
#620 - 'I hate waiting to vote.' Feels like he's setting up someone to put Shark at L-1 so Shark can self-hammer.
There was a reason I came out and attacked him hard at the start of the day. I thought he was extremely scummy, did not like his interactions with Silver on day one, and him being one of the only possible scum on the Shark wagon just solidified the case.
These are just light notes that I jotted down while re-reading for pretty much every player in the game to give me a read on them, and I then looked at every single vote tally the mod posted, and colored in people based on my reads, which helped solidify some reads, and caused me to re-think some others, to where I stand currently.
Strong Town
Voxxicus
Kpaca
Silver
IB
Dancing Mad
TIM
Light Town
MandersHex
GrickyTimmick
Reya
DeathJoey
These are just light notes that I jotted down while re-reading for pretty much every player in the game to give me a read on them, and I then looked at every single vote tally the mod posted, and colored in people based on my reads, which helped solidify some reads, and caused me to re-think some others, to where I stand currently.
Strong Town
Voxxicus
Kpaca
Silver
IB
Dancing Mad
TIM
Light Town
MandersHex
GrickyTimmick
Reya
DeathJoey
VigThesePlease
Cyouni
Ahlyis
Light Scum
Void
Jobie
Scum
Cyan
Emo Pinata
SharkFinnigan
What happened to AE?
Is he in some null read category? Is anyone else not represented on your list?
How can you read AE's last few posts and not realize that it is just a complete meltdown on his part?
He is STILL trying to mis-represent IB's examples of experienced players and turn it into IB specifically saying one of myself and MH was scum. Even though IB has been maintaining the same defense the entire time.
@AE: Asking my why I targeted EP is obvious fishing.
Missed AE. He's strong town, obviously, as I've stated I have mechanical confirmation of that fact.
And EP, I changed my mind on Silver during the last half of day one, before I did my re-read.
You'll note that I called Silver town later in day one in a post! I don't see a possible world where Silver is scum. He was radiating frustrated, sincere town, once the game got going.
How can you read AE's last few posts and not realize that it is just a complete meltdown on his part?
There is no meltdown. You use this term to loosly.
He is STILL trying to mis-represent IB's examples of experienced players and turn it into IB specifically saying one of myself and MH was scum. Even though IB has been maintaining the same defense the entire time.
Not at all. Strange that he says one of the experienced players is scum but so callously foll
@AE: Asking my why I targeted EP is obvious fishing.
Right. But you said... "you are trying to accuse anyone that you can". Implying more than just yourself.
Also, we haven't heard from Gricky in a while, which concerns me.
Huh? I posted yesterday, explained how I felt about the EP situation and Manders suddenly getting a free pass. Which is still happening.
AE is reading very frustrated, but I'm not sold that it makes him scum. Voxx is claiming some kind of confirmation, and I've got a pretty townie read on Voxx. Willing to trust that information for the time being.
Also of note: Manders hasn't been active D2 at all. One post about how she would post soon I believe. Easily my strongest read for scum. Also, where's Jobie?
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AE was a light scum read before my night one action resolved.
I removed him from there afterwards in my notes, but didn't add him to the town list.
Pretty simple explanation.
Considering that my night action was redirected from EP to AE and failed, I don't see how a night action could solve anything here.
I guess I could have been rbed. I will be pretty pissed at gd if he told me that my ability 'failed' when I was actually rbed. There is a huge distinction there.
Considering that my night action was redirected from EP to AE and failed, I don't see how a night action could solve anything here.
I guess I could have been rbed. I will be pretty pissed at gd if he told me that my ability 'failed' when I was actually rbed. There is a huge distinction there.
What are you on about? I guess it's possible but we don't even know the actions so its not really much to go on. We have but the tip of the iceberg on the situation.
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I dunno. My ability resolved (redirecting abilities from EP -> AE). I actually thought of this and didn't post it because I couldn't get it to make sense in my head. It would depend on what ability we're talking about, right? Because Voxx could have targeted AE straight up, instead of targeting EP with something which then redirected. None of that makes sense from my perspective though, as to why Cyan's ability failed.
Either way it seems like there was quite a mess with the abilities last night.
It has my case against Voxx in it. Other than EP mentioning it in his counterattack@Voxx, it's been pretty much ignored unless I missed somebody's post. I'd love a response to it, now that Voxx is actually in peoples' minds.
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IB: did you read my analysis of Manders' wagon? It's here: http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8930218#post8930218
...if you didn't. What do you you think of my theories regarding Manders? Obviously you put a ton of work into those two posts, I'm just curious why you came to the opposite conclusion I did from when I reviewed her. Also: why did you choose now to post this? I don't want to demean your work here, but I question the timing. I feel like this is a very random time to bring Manders back into it.
For EP:
@D_M -- thanks for this:
I think you just articulated something I've been having a hard time putting into words about what's been bothering me about AE this whole game. I'll save that for later
However, I'm not sure that it applies to EP. It reads to me more that EP honestly didn't like IB's wagon, but acknowledged that there is a chance that he could be wrong. It's a hard thing knowing when to commit in this game. I know that I still see EP as town at this point, but I don't want to commit to his defense until I do a reread of him. It seems to me to not be a "scum" attitude so much as a "player" attitude. Saying that town gives no ****s is weird, because I should think that every player in the game wants to do well. It's simple competitive nature:
If EP is scum, he wants to win.
If EP is town, he wants to win.
If EP is (other), he wants to win.
If Town!EP, then why would he want to jump on a wagon he believes is bad? If Scum!EP, why wouldn't he want to push that wagon harder rather than abstain, since he would -know- that IB is town? Your explanation actually sits better if Neutral!EP, because then I could see him wanting to stay out of the limelight a little more....which doesn't make sense when you consider the rest of his Day 1 play, which I believe most have agreed seemed strongly town. I dunno. I need to reread EP before I commit to his defense, but my gut is screaming at me that somebody needs to look at Cyan. Cyan's had his fingers in every wagon so far in a big way, either pushing it or halting it. Are we just assuming that Cyan is town and should be trusted because he's the most experienced player in the game? Obviously Town!Cyan would be a huge asset, but as yet I don't think that his alignment has been discussed at all, and since he's the primary driver of the EP wagon that Voxx started, I feel like he should be scrutinized somewhat before we accept his opinion of EP as law. Then again, that also adds another level of confusion to the discussion right now that I'm trying to avoid. Blah. Brb reading.
I drew the opposite conclusion as you because my analysis is in light of SharkFoxigan flipping scum. I did read your analysis of Manders' wagon, but I don't necessarily agree with the conclusions you drew. Also, I chose this time because I don't see EP or Cyan as scum, and I feel we're all ignoring Manders after her implosion yesterday and her vehement defense of SharkFox in the early part of the game. This casts her in a very bad light, but we're all up in arms about a bad post EP made.
Cyan is an enigma.
Manders is a big fish that needs frying.
SharkFinnigan (10) - Voxxicus, TheIceMan, Ahlyis, infectiousbaloth, SilverSilhe, Cyan, Cyouni, Emo_Pinata, Archmage Eternal, SharkFinnigan
If you think Cyan and EP are both town, then who is the scum on this wagon?
I believe there is at least one scum between Cyan, EP and Cyouni, with the possibility of 2. I have a larger post in the works regarding this that I'll do later.
Manders is possible scum, sure. But she's about 6th in line for me, and only makes sense if some of my stronger scum reads flip town.
infectiousbaloth (8) - Cyouni, Archmage Eternal, MandersHex, Cyan, Ahlyis, TheIceMan, Jobie, Reya Cookiebringer
If Cyan and Cyouni are both town, yeah, Manders is almost definitely scum. Jobie still looks awful here. Making a note to address him in post later, too.
This all assumes that you are town, of course, but I'm pretty sure that's the case.
@Silver
I understand where you're coming from with AE, but he's town. Look at wagons again with that in mind, and tell me who you think likely scum are.
Shark flipped scum, which means one of two things: if S!Manders, scum were trying to bus her, which means that everyone on her wagon needs to be looked at (supported by Manders voting herself and trying to get herself killed); or, if T!Manders, scum were pushing her wagon for a mislynch and she just imploded for whatever reason.
Honestly, in light of Shark's flip, you're right, and S!Manders does look more likely. So here's another question for you, IB: if we operate under the assumption of S!Manders, do we bother to lynch her since she isn't currently even playing the game, really, or do we poke AE, Cyan, and Jobie and see how many jimmies we rustle? What are the odds that scum were attempting to bus Manders, as compared to just Shark voting her? Her self-vote makes me think a bus attempt, honestly, which suggests that at least one more person on her wagon is scum.
I suppose it's possible we go the other way, because if we lynch Manders and she flips scum, then that all but confirms more scum on her wagon. I have no idea what the better course of action is. I do believe that it's a little early in the Day to pull any triggers, though. There's a lot that needs looked at yet.
Using POE,
SharkFinnigan (10) - Voxxicus, TheIceMan,
Ahlyis,infectiousbaloth,SilverSilhe,Cyan,Cyouni, Emo_Pinata, Archmage Eternal, SharkFinniganThe possibilities are Voxx, TIM, E_P, AE, and obviously, Shark.
Shark was scum. I'm not leaning scum on any of those players, but E_P is a lean town for me.
I look forward to it.
If you don't mind answering, who is ahead of Manders?
I see Cyan and Cyouni as both town, as I stated earlier. Jobie looks poor and has all game.
Were they trying to bus her? Who do you think is trying to bus manders?
If you want to see a perfect case of where the town let scum win by not lynching a scummy player, go read Triskelion mafia. We had Zenjo pinned down, and by not lynching him to go after "bigger fish", the town lost.
I'm not sure what you're getting at here with more scum being on the wagon. Can you explain?
Okay, if I've got my definitions right, bussing is when the scum team decides to "throw one under the bus." They vote for one of their own in order to make the rest of the team look town, which allows them to arbitrate as many mislynchs as they want.
So, what if that's what's happening with Manders? We've already confirmed one scum that was on her wagon. If Manders gets lynched and flips scum, then considering her wagon and her self-vote, doesn't that almost mandate that there are more scum present there? It's entirely possible that I'm reading too much into this and Manders just imploded for whatever random reason and Shark was the only scum that voted her, just to vote her. But the circumstances seem odd enough to me that it's worth throwing the theory out there, at least. I'll reiterate my theory once more, just so that it's out there nice and clearly:
-) Shark flipped scum (fact)
-) Manders claimed at L-7 and self-voted shortly thereafter (fact)
-) Shark was on Manders' wagon (fact)
-) Manders has been, at the least, anti-town all game (questionably fact)
-) Jobie was also on Manders' wagon (fact)
-) Jobie has been suspicious all game (my opinion)
-) Jobie is scum (assumption)
-) Shark + Jobie makes 2 scum on Manders' wagon (following the assumption)
-) AE has been reading scummy to me all game (fact. note that I haven't reread him yet)
-) AE is scum (assumption)
-) Shark + Jobie + AE = 3 scum on Manders' wagon (following the assumptions)
-) Scum were trying to bus Manders (thesis)
You can also start at the bottom and work back up:
-) Scum were trying to bus Manders (thesis)
-) Shark was scum (fact)
-) Jobie is possible scum (reasonable assumption in light of the thesis and everyone else on the wagon)
-) There might be more scum on the wagon (reasonable assumption)
That make sense?
Yes it does. I don't necessarily agree with your assumptions, but I understand how you drew the conclusion.
I think that we should look at AE. His posts to me today have been ridiculous. He didn't actually contribute much yesterday. And SF lynched himself almost immediately after AE voted for him. Also worth noting is where AE flat-out says 'if I vote and he's scum he'll probably self-hammer'. And then SF does..exactly that. It all reads pretty badly IMO. Vote AE
Vote AE that is.
I did not consider that point on AE. I'll reread.
Its about time some scum picked up on that. Your reaching for anything. About time you vote me too. Couldn't get any info from fishing me so now your going to try and get through a wagon claim. Nice that you jump off EP now that it looks like a Manders wagon will be picking back up and vote me.
How about this. Why'd you target EP?
They hate us cause they ain't us.
Defends SharkFoxigan, votes Void. Shark is scum, I find Void townie.
Defends SharkFox some more. +Scum
Deliberate misrep.
unvote; vote AE
@DJ: Can you get around to answering Gricky's questions?
EBP: I see AE posted before me. How much harder could you fish?
So Cyan wanted to keep things going but now has a problem with how the day ended.
This is scum grasping at anything they can find.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
Defending? Try pressuring Void who I believed scum at the time. Now this is a misrep. Nice try.
Not even close bud. Reread that and explain how thats a misrep.
Fantastic. I did that on purpose and look who jumps right in. Ignoring Cyans fish attempts.
This post by IB is so scummy in the way he tries to spin my posts.
If anyone cares to lynch Cyan or IB I'll be over here waiting.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
Have fun. <3
What is your opinion of Manders?
Unvote, Vote AE
He has a history of posting a line exactly like this as scum.
Heroes Mafia:
Chosen Mafia:
I'm still waiting on IB's defense of his waffling re:Foxlet. Still not expecting an answer.
Explain how its a misrep.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
I still want to hear that defense, though.
I say one of the more experienced players is almost certainly scum. Cyan and Manders are mentioned as examples. You say: "There's a good chance Cyan is scum." That is completely misrepresenting what I said. You also count as an experienced player.
1. That's not a waffle at all. I thought Foxlet was lying and didn't know what to make of it.
2. I didn't make an opinion because I didn't have one at that time, I just knew Foxlet was lying.
3. I can actually see the justification for this being a waffle, though I don't consider it one.
4. Now this is just blatantly wrong. I didn't throw a vote down, but "scummy at worst and anti-town at best" is certainly an opinion on her alignment.
Perhaps you and I just have a different opinion of what "waffle" means.
At the time of that posting was/is there a good chance Cyan being scum?
They hate us cause they ain't us.
I love it when all of the pieces of the picture fit together, but you have to be careful not to MAKE them fit together.
I think that we should take a step back and look at the SF wagon, which IB has already started to do. Of the people on it, I see IB, SS, and Voxx all being likely town. That leaves Cyouni, Ahylis, EP, AE, and TIM(and myself, but I'm obviously not trying to wagon me). I believe Cyouni's miller claim. Behaviorally, he has been very town. I am willing to accept Ahylis survivor claim for now(though seriously, the first time that someone has a Vig shot, they should point it at him). That leaves EP, AE, and TIM. I want to let a little more time pass with EP to see what happens there. That leaves AE and TIM. TIM's behavior has been insubstantial, but not as bad as AE's IMO.
So after careful consideration...yeah I still just want to lynch AE.
And now that I have previewed, I see that AE has come along and pretty much just thrown himself into the frying pan. The point that Cyouni brought up is particularly relevant.
@AE: It's amusing that you are trying to accuse anyone that you can of fishing(and are wrong each time), but then proceed to fish me instead. Nice try sir.
I'd be willing to lynch Cyan.
I think it's possible that he's scum with EP, too. Go back and look at the interactions we had after I made the initial case. When I asked him who was scum on that wagon if EP was town, he changed his mind pretty rapidly. I'm confident that at least one of them is scum, and I'd say there's a decent chance that they both are.
At no point in this game, have I thought Cyan was scum.
@Voxx: Can you provide reasons for AE's towniness and why you'd be willing to lynch Cyan?
That same analysis of mine that Cyan just tried to use falls apart when you mark AE down as town.
TIM also started the wagon on Shark after the Manders one fell apart.
TIM is town.
That leaves 3 people. Cyan, EP, and Cyouni.
If one of them is not scum, that means no scum voted for their doomed teammate.
Yeah, that's not the case. I'm sure there is 1 or 2 scum not on that wagon, and I want to look at Void and Jobie in particular, after this is resolved.
Jobie interests me. Also, we haven't heard from Gricky in a while, which concerns me. I don't think that any of Cyan, Cyouni, or EP are scum, but if I were to order them from least townie to most, I would say EP, Cyan, Cyouni, with Cyouni being the most town by a hefty margin.
So...
You knew it looked Scummy, but were waiting for someone else to point it out first. That about right?
Who does that? Not Town. If Town did something stupid, I'd expect them to own up to it, not sit on it and hope either nobody noticed, or try to turn it back on whoever does finally notice it.
Fantastic, you acted scummy on purpose? And you want to paint whoever calls you on it as the Scummy one?
Okay, you win.
Vote: AE
You can now accuse me of being scum too. Go ahead, I can take it.
I do not see that being the case.
SharkFinnigan (10) - Voxxicus, TheIceMan, Ahlyis, infectiousbaloth, SilverSilhe, Cyan, Cyouni, Emo_Pinata, Archmage Eternal, SharkFinnigan
I'm Town.
TIM started the push on Shark, as my vote was still there from RVS (though I left it there because I was convinced Foxlet (and therefore her replacement) was scum.
Ahlyis is a survivor who jumped on this wagon the second it started, effectively confirming him as the role.
You are town bulletproof.
Silver is town redirector.
AE is town. I don't wish to say why at the moment, but it is role related, and no, I'm not the cop.
This leaves three people.
Cyan
Cyouni
Emo_Pinata
Cyouni is a miller claim. I believed it unconditionally initially, but after re-reading day one, I really did not like his vote effectively sitting on you all day, even after it was obvious that the wagon was not happening, until he hopped on the Shark wagon once it looked inevitable. I don't think he's as likely to be scum as EP or Cyan, but I do want him vigged at some point.
EP, I effectively stated this exact case on at start of day, and his reaction did nothing to make me think he is town in the least.
Cyan's reaction and interactions with me were pretty interesting, too.
I can easily see them both being scum, but I am confident that at least one of them is scum.
OK before I call you a liar point them out.
OK I must have missed the disclaimer from the original post.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
Emo Pinata
#24 - Fluff
#62 - Miller joke, excuses for limited posting.
#122 - Calls IB 'very eager' for jumping on Foxlet.
#122 - Hates basing a wagon on something like this. Doesn't want held accountable for what he knows is a town flip?
#122 - Use of 'frustrating' feels like a faked town tell.
#122 - Starts the Silver suspicion, but does not vote. This looks terrible.
#147 - Semi-fluffy comment about the number of emoticons Foxlet uses. Commenting on Foxlet without really committing, maybe?
#147 - This is interesting. He links Fox/Silver together - potentially setting up a bus on Fox, but making sure some town go with them?
#147 - The backhanded accusation of IB barning Cyan for the Foxlet vote as a defense of her looks bad. He does this while barning Cyan.
#185 - Parks vote on Silver to inflate bandwagon, and vanishes.
#196 - I don't like this post. Feels like he's asking a leading question to change Cyan's mind about his read on IB.
#214 - 'Why do you want to be confirmed as town?' Just a bad question.
#236 - 'Oh no it's starting again.' Fluffy post that isn't content. Pretty common so far.
#251 - Fluff. Buddying Cyan.
#284 - Strange post. Semi-fluff, semi-barning Cyan.
#331 - Picks apart Silver's wall, when it's pretty obvious that wagon is not going to happen. Trying to reignite it?
#379 - Asks Silver how he prepped for the game. Which Silver had already answered. Semi-fluff, proves he isn't paying attention to thread.
#405 - 'You replaced Foxlet, right?' Look at how they totally can't be aligned, guys!
#418 - Still poking Silver. Why? It's not going to happen, so it's like he's trying to be seen doing something.
#475 - 'What's stalling Silver's wagon?' Attempt to reignite the mislynch. Silver is clear town at this point.
#496 - Some fearmongering about deadline. Which is still TWO WEEKS away. Attempt to get a mislynch going when the options are town?
#529 - Pops back in after promise to catch up with semi-fluff.
#548 - Comments on Manders' frustration. Been forever since actual content from him.
#592 - Called Null Town by SharkFinnigan.
#613 - Amazingly bad vote on SharkFinnigan. Scum bussing all the way.
#620 - 'I hate waiting to vote.' Feels like he's setting up someone to put Shark at L-1 so Shark can self-hammer.
There was a reason I came out and attacked him hard at the start of the day. I thought he was extremely scummy, did not like his interactions with Silver on day one, and him being one of the only possible scum on the Shark wagon just solidified the case.
These are just light notes that I jotted down while re-reading for pretty much every player in the game to give me a read on them, and I then looked at every single vote tally the mod posted, and colored in people based on my reads, which helped solidify some reads, and caused me to re-think some others, to where I stand currently.
Strong Town
Voxxicus
Kpaca
Silver
IB
Dancing Mad
TIM
Light Town
MandersHex
GrickyTimmick
Reya
DeathJoey
VigThesePlease
Cyouni
Ahlyis
Light Scum
Void
Jobie
Scum
Cyan
Emo Pinata
SharkFinnigan
I don't. I've actually been getting a bad vibe from his recent posts. I'm starting to think he and AE may be scum together.
What happened to AE?
Is he in some null read category? Is anyone else not represented on your list?
He is STILL trying to mis-represent IB's examples of experienced players and turn it into IB specifically saying one of myself and MH was scum. Even though IB has been maintaining the same defense the entire time.
@AE: Asking my why I targeted EP is obvious fishing.
And EP, I changed my mind on Silver during the last half of day one, before I did my re-read.
You'll note that I called Silver town later in day one in a post! I don't see a possible world where Silver is scum. He was radiating frustrated, sincere town, once the game got going.
I wonder if he and AE were posting lists in their scumchat and Vox forgot to add AE in when he copy/pasted it from there.
Pure speculation, I know, but the exclusion of AE and only AE does leave me wondering.
I removed him from there afterwards in my notes, but didn't add him to the town list.
Pretty simple explanation.
There is no meltdown. You use this term to loosly.
Not at all. Strange that he says one of the experienced players is scum but so callously foll
Right. But you said... "you are trying to accuse anyone that you can". Implying more than just yourself.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
Fixed
They hate us cause they ain't us.
Huh? I posted yesterday, explained how I felt about the EP situation and Manders suddenly getting a free pass. Which is still happening.
AE is reading very frustrated, but I'm not sold that it makes him scum. Voxx is claiming some kind of confirmation, and I've got a pretty townie read on Voxx. Willing to trust that information for the time being.
Also of note: Manders hasn't been active D2 at all. One post about how she would post soon I believe. Easily my strongest read for scum. Also, where's Jobie?
Considering that my night action was redirected from EP to AE and failed, I don't see how a night action could solve anything here.
I guess I could have been rbed. I will be pretty pissed at gd if he told me that my ability 'failed' when I was actually rbed. There is a huge distinction there.
Wait.
We have a dichotomy, ladies and gentlemen!
Either Cyan is lying or Voxx is lying.
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Either way it seems like there was quite a mess with the abilities last night.
Also, I'm going to leave this here: http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8886150#post8886150
It has my case against Voxx in it. Other than EP mentioning it in his counterattack@Voxx, it's been pretty much ignored unless I missed somebody's post. I'd love a response to it, now that Voxx is actually in peoples' minds.