What we discern from these posts. AE had already "sent" his coins according to the plan (he never said he was against the plan after all), after WG is lynched there's no way to cancel his courier because the action was already sent, therefore he can't have a change of heart at night ("man, this plan is not good, greymon will be NKed, I'm better not following the plan so I can fool the scum, I'm so smart") because at that point it's too late for that. Shark was townie, knew greymon was townie, had no reason to lie, and agreed to the plan thousand times, therefore it's safe to say shark sent his coin before dying.Remember the courier gives teh coin before night actions happens, this also explain his low money when dying.
If you are talking about Shark and his low coin count before dying, I find that pretty much hard to believe. Call me a skeptic but dying with *4* coins is not by any stretch of the imagination a LOW coin count.
Let's try to deduce Shark's coins once more with feeling.
Shark started with 2 coins.
He gave Caex 1 coin on N2 because he felt he was towniest. -1
He gave Greymon 1 coin N3 according to the plan. -1
He gave Greymon 1 coin N4 according to the plan. -1
He received 2 coins from the guild of coins. +2
TOTAL: 1
Funny how you and Nis keep following the same hypothesis. I have mine here. The post you quoted for shark said he was down with the plan not that he was sending a coin, show me...in quotes where he said "Im sending a coin to grey". That...exactly. Because I specifically asked about shark sending a coin because, when pinky first mentioned the plan and had shark with a ??? beside grey's name I asked why on earth someone would be giving away a coin when you are supposed to be collecting them! I thought it was crap.
Yes, I realize at this point is who can prove a better argument because Me saying I'm town doesn't do crap, and you saying you are town doesn't do crap to prove it either
Since his bid on the cop failed we know he had just 1 coin excluding last night happenings. Therefore Shark received 3 coins last night because he died with 4 coins. There's no need for crazy assumptions, bids on protection by Shark or something strange at all, everything is on the thread for everyone to see.
Except it isn't. You (and possibly Nis) are assuming he actually gave grey a coin. I know, for a fact that I did. Yes, I f'ed up giving a coin to AE. I stated my reason why. I thought the N2 plan was crap. I could have kept my mouth shut because, if you had noticed AE's response to my claim of giving him the coin was anything but "practiced". Do you REALLY think if that was a scum gambit that we had talked over in scum chat AE would have acted like a startled rabbit?
4 people said they gave coins to Shark, one of them is lying. 2 People said they gave coin to Greymon, one of them is lying. Fortunately one of the guys that gave Greymon the coin has just died and flipped town, meaning he's telling the truth and Foxlet is scum.
And...yer wrong, so horribly wrong.
I still stand by my theory that both the scum are in the group that "gave" shark coins. As far as I'm aware, Shark never said..."I am sending my coin to grey", he only said I'm down with the plan, and was confirming he was ready to go. Its not hard to push a wagon on the 2 people most people find the most scummy...I mean really, it was all out there for the whole freaking world to see. Yeah, most of the town thought AE and me were the scummiest Woohoo.
TLDR: Game is over, it's Fox and AE, AE needs to go first because scum have been pooling money on him all game.
Hahahaha, yer funny
My coinage...placed in with 1 coin, received a coin from GoC. (which is why I was frustrated D2 because I wouldn't be able to do jack diddly ANYWAY because at that point 3 coins would be the max, which I hinted at). Sent a coin to AE....GoC payed again so back at 2 coins. Sent a coin to grey. That's it. If I didn't miss any pay outs, I should just have 1 coin. (trying to keep track of GoC pay outs is an PIA)
-Fox had AE as a suspect the whole thread, but she gave him a coin because he would be inspected or killed anyway therefore his coin would come back to town eventually. This reasoning is crap!! Why would town risk giving money to their scumspect hoping it eventually come back to town since themselves are town? If you want the coin to come back to town, just don't send it! Why risk? This makes no sense from a town POV because she would be giving money away to get it back later.
-Fox is constanly trying to downplay Greymon confirmed town status ("maybe he was gambitting with Wheat", "remember Wheat said Greymon was town, both could be buddies")
-Fox has not cast even a vote on the whole thread, her only vote was on WG and just because he was confirmed scum anyway. I reread her town games and she casts votes normally there, I counted like 6 votes on Triskelion when I started counting, Nis on the other hand really disliked to cast votes as town in Things I Like, I think he just cast 2 votes the whole game as town.
For sending my coin to AE, sometimes my reason is "crap and illogical" by mafia game standards Read Vamp for an excellent example
So you use Trisk for my voting record which I'd like to point out was my second ever game played. Vampire, which is my most recently finished game, I think I voted twice, wait 3 times because I self hammered? (and no I didn't actually go look it up I'm going by memory) Why not use that one instead? Was it just to paint me in the most scummy light possible and "prove" your point? Why? I'd also like to point out, that I've been told my voting habits (even 6 votes in a whole game) are not "normal" by mafia standards so I smell bullpoo in the air.
As for grey, the reason I mention him is *because* Wheat who is a confirmed scum did the investigation. No one else at the time thought it was a big deal but now it's a big deal. WTF? Zindy still hasn't answered my questions, but my points about grey being confirmed town was that some of the townfolk like Shark seemed to just take the investigation results at face value regardless of who did the investigation. As Zindy pointed out scum will "sacrifice" themselves just like town will (except for town points). So the idea COULD be that it was a scum ploy. Especially given as I said, in this set up there might be no way possible for grey to ever "confirm" himself by investigating a scum target. Its why I wanted, and still want those questions answered.
BONUS- Why shark was killed and not confirmed town greymon (confirmed town on lylo are scum worst nightmares because of POE)?
You are spouting the same BS as Zindy. I've said the reason why I'm pretty sure Shark was targeted instead of grey. Coins. And really, as I said above, the whole Shark was going to investigate AE or Me so had to be silenced is just silly. As I said before, most of the town thought it was me or AE, so I was already expecting a possible investigation result. And I was all...COME AT ME BRO!
I'm ready to vote AE, and let's ignore the vig shot
So...you *also* want the town to ignore the vig shot and turtle down in fear while the scum drive the town to mislynch each other. I can't say that AE is town, or scum...he certainly has acted pretty scummy. I do, however know for a fact that given this new idea of yours that the scum certainly won't NEED the vig shot. Ya'll can call it fearmongering like you have been, go ahead, I can take it I just like to call it like it is, just like I did with the N2 plan.
@AE, Fox the game is over
I thought you were supposed to be good or something...disappointing
Instead it was like this.
He preemptively did not said he has ever agreed to the plan nor that he has sent the coin according to the plan, meaning he never wanted to send the coin in the first place, but wanted to let his options open so he could discuss with Fox on the mafiaQT what they both should claim next day to better explain both of them not giving coins to town.
Except I gave my coin to grey...I want YOU to find proof that Shark physically said "I'm giving a coin to grey"...because right now, right now you are blowing smoke up our collective butts which put you right up in scumspect #1 for me. Now you are saying grey isn't town?
Right now you have Me not following the plan N2 which I said why, regardless of if you like it or not...I said I wasn't following it before hand, and I didn't.
I wanted to actually compare Wheaties T/S list to some of his others to see, if in fact we can gain any information from it. The fact that DRey moved things around, I find it a little suspicious because it means that you can't read information from how he ordered it (without looking it up yourself).
It's about like saying "what can we find out from a vote analysis on a wagon" and then changing the votes around before quoting it
greymon Arnnaria: Mod-confirmed town
Caex Kothar: Town - He's posting all kinds of content despite being a noob. I'm certain that he would have scumslipped by now if he was scum. Plus his posts have a decent amount of insight.
Iso: Leaning Town - He seemed town in my mind during the reread, can't remember why but I'll go with it for now.
ArchmageEternal: Leaning Town - He sounds like the town AE I've played with in other games.
Pinkys_brain: Hard neutral - Seemed town until that weird vote/unvote on
Albus. I'm not sure how I feel about it. I can't decide if it was just paranoia that Albus would flip town, or trying to get townie points by not being on a mislynch that was pretty much going to happen anyway, but having to get back on because of pressure.
Zindabad: Hard neutral - I am terrible at reading Art, and since he's no longer in the game I'm not even going to try. Hopefully I'll develop a read on Zindabad later today.
Foxlet MirrorEntity: Soft neutral - post more
Nis: Soft neutral - post more
SharkFinnigan: Scum - Active lurking.
For the record, I put grey in light blue since I think he's pretty confirmed town, however there is a small margin of doubt that it could be a scum gambit. I also added myself in light blue because while I know I'm town, I can't prove it unless the rest of the town lynches me Added the names for replacements, but no other changes were made to order
Now to compare to his 2 most recently completed scum games and see if we can actually *find* anything from this.
This T/S list was later game (DRey who was scum wasn't included) All the town ARE actually town in this one. He also leaves himself wiggle room to go "Hey Sep was scum!" for town points in the event that Sep got lynched by saying "one of these is town.
Since this was later in the game, I think it gave him less "wiggle" room to be able to put scumbuds in the town portion....Just my opinion of course, but something to think of when looking at T/S list analysis if you are going to attempt to do so.
So then, my current T/S list:
Town
MandersHex: Plenty of scumhunting, and reads similar to mine.
Zenjo: Town-tells everywhere, along with good scum-hunting.
Foxlet: Town-telling like crazy.
Leaning Town
Gamora: Has said some stuff I don't like, and Arnnaria tried to tie himself to him, but he's seemed townier lately.
Gigas1: I agree with a lot said in his post, but I'd love to see more.
EronTheRelentless: Tons of effort. However, I've seen a few things I don't like here and there, so not completely cleared to me.
KittyCupCake: TBH I'm terrible at reading you, but you don't seem too scummy and Manders vouched for you.
Neutral
Miracule: Needs more posts.
Scum
Arnnaria: So much I don't like. So much.
Chickenfish: Keeps posting very oddly, and I don't like it. I don't really like lynching him today, though, because he at least has been posting quite a bit.
Battlemaster: Posts very little, and what he does I disagree with almost completely.
This was posted early in the game (in the 200's) and I didn't see another one using the search function anyway At the point he did this Battlemaster was also a pretty good "suspect" from several people so having him not include him might have looked bad. But that's just from what I'm gathering by scrolling through, kinda refreshing my memory a bit.
I know it's always just one persons opinion vs another...but it's all there colorcoded for everyone elses thoughts as well.
In this game, he did the T/S list shortly after placing in but still reasonably early in the game (in the posts 300). poggy had no *real* suspicion on him at the time either. Most of the suspicion was on Shark at the time and look OH LOOK! Shark is the only person listed as "scum".
I'd say based on his "comfort level" placing in, there are high chances of at least one person in the "town" being scum, however he only listed grey and AE as town and potential town. So I suppose it would depend on if you agree if AE is scum...why. Or if you can imagine the grey confirmation being a scum gambit. Basically, I'd say one, but not both are likely to be scum based on his history of T/S lists.
After that, it's hit or miss because it's basically someone who is listed as neutral (which is everyone else) is his scumbuddy. It really doesn't tell us that much more.
And why am I doing this...because, again, you are using Wheat's T/S list to smear me (MirrorE the lurker who I would have voted for as well) as one of his scum buddies which was PRIOR to me placing in, rather than his comments AFTER I placed in. At least be accurate in your mudslinging.
@ Nis - why no real commentary? Why just yeah sounds good and a vote?
There are several inconsistencies that I pointed out already with DRey's thoughts. Why do YOU think he'd do that?
@ AE - *IF* you are town, you seriously need to get your act together and make a serious effort to play *this* game.
Let's wait for the others young grasshopper, maybe someone has a plan for the night or something to add. But I think the game is effectivelly over. Feeling good with myself.
Look how Nis jumps to the vote. So eager to get the day done.
If I'm lynched you better damn well lynch him tomorrow!!!!
Again things look bad for AE, he has managed to cast 4 votes (a number kinda kinda high for a heavy lurker like him) yet zero on scum, not even on the WG wagon that was the easiest for scum to join early.
Did you read how the day ended? I was set to end the day. We were still talking about coins. I then indicated I'd be away and then the last few votes happened. I like how you fluff this to condemn me.:-/
Too tired to do it now, but my scum suspect that I'm 99% sure of is Nis at the moment. Drey is a close second after reading his last 87,000 posts in a row. I will post my case against Nis tomorrow hopefully, but if everyone goes back and searches for all his posts in this thread it should become painfully obvious. The only reason I didn't say anything before was because I wanted to give this thread some time to cough up the second scum, and I think it did.
I'm a mathematics major, so nobody can pull the wool over my eyes when it comes to statistics. Using statistics is one of the worst things you can do to get your point across, because with the flick of the wrist they can become slanted in your favor. EX:
Yadier Molina for the St. Louis Cardinals is hitting around .317 this year, exceptionally well for a catcher. But you take this statistic to someone who doesn't know baseball all that well and say "this guy is crap, he's creating an out around 68% of the time, and they're gonna go "Wow, yeah he isn't doing that well."
A rough example I know, but it just goes to show that you can always stack statistics in your favor, and I'm having a feeling in my gut that that is what DRey is doing right now.
Well, not to sound like an idiot again...but doh. Of course they have more coordination. They had N0 to start coordinating, they also already know the town's plans because we have no other option except to talk in the thread AND the scum can change their plans around that.
Yes. I've been saying that all along, but others thought it would be a good idea to have all of our coin information out in the open and to try to stack coins. As though the scum would just leave us to do that.
If you look back, the repeated failure to grasp this concept is one of the reasons that I found Iso scummy, which is why I bring it up again.
No, I'm not being deliberately obtuse. I understand what you are saying perfectly. I just feel like while YOU think this is a "basic" point, I don't and would like you to actually answer my question.
To put it in a different way, townies don't know who each other are...the chances of grey investigating town are much higher than nabbing scum. So, if grey investigated someone and got town, would you still think he was "confirmed". Especially given the "swingy" (IMO) way this set up is, in which case you have to bid for investigations and grey might not have EVER been able to prove/confirm a scum investigation.
Would your opinion have been different if grey had been investigated by someone who was really town (or had flipped town) vs a known scum?
No, I would not think grey was confirmed town if he investigated someone and got a town result. That isn't how it works. Wheat investigated someone and claimed a town result on them and he was scum, so clearly, that doesn't make you town.
What does make you town is when you turn up a scum, which is what greymon did. If he came back on D3 and said "I investigated <player name>, they're town" I would still consider him town behaviorally but would neither 100% trust that result, nor consider him 100% cleared.
Zero going for me in what way? You know something about me I don't?
The problem I have with your comment of "100% sure DRey is scum" was I'm pretty sure you said something similar to that about Iso So forgive me if I lack faith in you at the moment.
Zero behaviorally. Zero in terms of actions. I see nothing that makes you town.
Inaccurate. I never said anything similar to "100% sure" about Iso.
Now that it has come to my attention that the vig must be obtained in the day my plan is certainly to fail but there's no doubt we have to coordinate now or we will lose (scum will get the vig too), considering scum already obtained 2 cop shots I'm considering they have little to no money so they have no coins for a vig shot today (or we are doomed anyway).
New plan is the following: everyone gives coin to the towniest that's not greymon, this way we will force scum to decide between NK confirmed town greymon or the one with most money I think that's the best outcome.
I know the risks we run since giving money to unconfirmed is not wise but if we don't coordinate we will lose anyway so we have to risk it. The time to be conservative is over, we have to gamble and die trying or go home without trying.
Don't see this working for a variety of reasons - failure to agree on the "townie runner-up", deviation from the plan (as two players have already done), possibility of feeding scum a lot of coins, extreme unlikeliness of the player who is receiving all the coins surviving the night, if town.
Ok, let's vote three things, the towniest of it all (excluding yourself), if we should do a massclaim and the top two scum.
a)Foxlet (very townie in my reread, is actively trying to help things now, her reads mirror mine)
b)Yes to massclaim
c)AE and Zinda
I'm pretty sure about AE being scum at this point, I was scum with him before and everything points to him being scum.
a)actively lurking (AE lurks as town too, but he at least tries to do something when town, here is acively trying to not do anything nor create anymosity with players)
b)He's posting on other threads while purposely avoid this one.
c)Quick to vote on lylo (AE is experienced enough to know that's bad)
d)hopping biggest wagons without reasons.
e)EP is one of the players that know AE very well, in the end of D1 I noticed he got suspitious of AE and he ended up dying in the night before contining the pressure on the next day. AE and EP have played countless matches together so they can read each other pretty well. When I was scum with AE I remember he wanting to NK EP because he was afraid EP could unmask him, I think this is what happened here since EP was far from a big force D1, considering by many as scummy (SF investigated him for example) and bloodthirsty.
f)Excluding AE and Zinda I don't think the other players in this game enough have knowledge about EP to consider him a threat.
You make good points in A through D. You already know that E is WIFOM, and F isn't really accurate, considering Wheat, pinky, and greymon all have past experience with E_P.
I've always seen AE as scum suspect #3, behind you and Fox. He's just been too low-content to be for real, but I wasn't aware he was posting in other games as well.
For you to suggest him as the other half of "my" scumteam is an interesting move. I mean, let's evaluate it from a scum perspective. You must know you aren't getting me lynched, so it has to be option #2, which according to you is AE. If he's your scumbuddy, you're gambling a lot on gaining town cred by bussing him and going after me/Nis/Fox on the last day.
So this exchange makes me feel slightly better about your towniness.
Anyway it doesn't hurt to present my unfinished data so far. (as of post #480).
Interactions with dead scum(WG/PD)
DRey (replacing pinkys_brain) 6
Iso 6
Caex 4
Albus 2
Shark 1
EP 0
Nis (replacing Wrath_of_DoG) 0
zindabad (replacing Artifice 101) 0
greymon90210 (replacing Arnnaria) 0
Foxlet (replacing MirrorEntity) 0
AE 0
Scum usually have difficulty talking with each other so they avoid it. Of course I'm biased but this puts me in a very confortable position as PB was one of the players that pressured WG most. It's also to be of note that Zinda, Nis, Greymon and Fox has just joined the game so they have limited opportunity to interact with WG. EP also died on N1.
Just "interactions"? How about positive or negative interactions?
I also already made 2 cases stating how pinky did not actually pressure Wheat. I don't know if you read those or not yet, but I reject that attempt to state it as canon.
total unique votes cast/votes on scum
DRey (replacing pinkys_brain) 5/1
Iso 4/0
Caex 5/1
Albus 3/1
Shark 4/1
EP 2/0
Nis (replacing Wrath_of_DoG) 2/0
zindabad (replacing Artifice 101) 2/0
greymon90210 (replacing Arnnaria) 2/0
Foxlet (replacing MirrorEntity) 0/0
AE 3/0
The most interesting thing is that AE has never voted on scum so far despite voting two different townies (shark 2x, albus 1x).
This part isn't doing a whole lot for me. Vote analysis like this is a lot more useful on D5 or D6 of a large game with 2-3 scum down, so you can really take a look at what patterns exist. For you to say "never voted scum" so far when we've only had one scum is a little disingenuous.
To state it another way, I recognize that this date is "all we have", but when the sample size is as small as it is here, we're better off not using data analysis like this at all, since the margin for error is so great and the stakes, at this point, are so high.
and Artifice's too, Artifice tends to tunnel as town so when he's scum he tries to emulate his style by choosing a player to tunnel, the difference is that when he's town he has actual reasons and he pushes hard. Scum Artifice just randomly chooses a player and keep saying he's scum without much elaboration, that's what he did here about Iso.
True, but I also point you to D1 of Ender's Mafia, where Art does indeed tunnel on someone (AsianInvasion), but put together a considerable case to try to implicate him. Here, as you said, he just sat around and called people scum, then replaced out.
I think he was just disengaged in general from whatever eventually caused him to replace out and that's the reason for the behavior you describe above, rather than what I consider his actual scum behavior, which more closely resembles Ender's.
Also how can someone not see PB is the towniest of the town? It's certainly impossible townZinda to be this wrong about everything. And PB polay was suberb on this game, she noticed WG was scum early and that's certainly not busing she was pushing him hard. She also noticed Artifice and Zinda soon and pressured AE.
Like I said, I made 2 cases where I establish, in detail and with evidence, that pinky's interactions with both Iso and Wheat are not what you describe them as. I also made note of how she lied about her past experience with me, put Albus at L-1 in an attempt to pre-empt me from contributing on D1, then blamed Nis for hammering after she'd done the dirty work of setting him up, and totally tried to escape having to respond to my accusations by trying to get into night. We remember how N3 went, I hope?
According to you, I'm scum for being "wrong about everything", but the only thing I'm wrong about that you actually mention is that I don't consider you to be town.
So, actually, you have nothing. Just like pinky. What a surprise.
BIRD'S EYE ANALYSIS OF WHEAT/POGGY
==========================
I have analysed all post from WG, here's the count of quotes and questions he asks another players.
QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ Iso (dead)
QQQQQQQQQ PB
QQQQQQ Caex (dead)
QQQQQQ Shark (dead)
QQQ Nis
Q EP (dead)
Q Albus (dead)
Q Fox
Q greymon
Q Zinda
X AE
It's well-documented that scum have a harder time talking with their scumbuddies than townies.
WG did talk a lot, particularly with Iso as he was one of the main pushers on his wagon, considering the results the metodology is pretty good, WG/PD focused mostly questioning, commenting with townies. Unfortunately WG talked very little with all low guys but he completely ignored AE another thing we can get from this is that this completely clears PB and therefore me. Yeah I know I'm biased, sue me.
More next...
Painful even to read. Whenever anyone's conclusion from looking at data is "so, I'm cleared", that's a great time to start lynching that player.
Not to mention that once again your data is simply too small a sample size. You start with a good foundation - scum have trouble interacting with one another - but then your conclusions are wild extrapolations that have no basis in reality.
In minis, it's quality, not quantity. If you had thrown up a huge quote wall that listed every one of the interactions Wheat had with the players you list above, and described how they were positive or negative, that would've been excellent analysis and something we could really sink our teeth into. This stuff is just numbers, though, and I get the feeling you're trying to bluff us with math. Replace in, flash-bang charm offensive, numbers, Qs, and poof! You're cleared, game's settled, concede now, scum.
I'm not that great at math, but stat was always my strong point, and I remember enough to know this stuff is BS.
Here are the total posts of suspects. Nis has triple interactions with WG but he has much more posts than the others so it's kinda null, AE has even more posts than Zinda and Grey (that's surprising since I don't remember AE doing anything) yet he has ZERO interactions with WG.
Here's WG only T/S post
I've changed the "places" of the guys according to this commentary here.
It's also well-documented scum likes to "spread" their buddies in different places. One as town, one as scum, other as neutral if possible. From his scumlist we know Shark is confirmed town and I'm confirmed town (to myself) so there's just Fox there. In the middle ground there's both Zinda and Nis, this makes unlikely WG, Zinda and Nis are part of the same scumteam. Again AE is on a bad spot because he's the only townread that isn't confirmed so far, plus his reasons for clearing AE are bougus because I don't remember he playing much games with AE, if at all, (correct me if wrong AE) plus his read on PB is because of her weird votes ( what about AE weird votes?) and ME lurking (how ME is a suspect for lurking but AE is not?).
Again, I do agree with the Wheat-AE link, although I will point out that ME had made absolutely no posts at this time, whereas AE had at least been vaguely participating.
Again things look bad for AE, he has managed to cast 4 votes (a number kinda kinda high for a heavy lurker like him) yet zero on scum, not even on the WG wagon that was the easiest for scum to join early. Nis also managed to not cast a vote on scum ever. It's also of note that Fox has cast just one vote the whole game and Nis just one. Considering their high number of posts that's kinda intriguing...
@Fox, Nis any reason for being so shy on your votes? ALso I want example of town and scum games of both of you. kthanksbye.
Again with the caveat of "only one scum, so not voting him isn't as egregious as you think it is", I approve of this line of attack.
What we discern from these posts. AE had already "sent" his coins according to the plan (he never said he was against the plan after all), after WG is lynched there's no way to cancel his courier because the action was already sent, therefore he can't have a change of heart at night ("man, this plan is not good, greymon will be NKed, I'm better not following the plan so I can fool the scum, I'm so smart") because at that point it's too late for that. Shark was townie, knew greymon was townie, had no reason to lie, and agreed to the plan thousand times, therefore it's safe to say shark sent his coin before dying. Remember the courier gives teh coin before night actions happens, this also explain his low money when dying.
THE "ACTUAL" RESULT
Let's try to deduce Shark's coins once more with feeling.
Shark started with 2 coins.
He gave Caex 1 coin on N2 because he felt he was towniest. -1
He gave Greymon 1 coin N3 according to the plan. -1
He gave Greymon 1 coin N4 according to the plan. -1
He received 2 coins from the guild of coins. +2
TOTAL: 1
Since his bid on the cop failed we know he had just 1 coin excluding last night happenings. Therefore Shark received 3 coins last night because he died with 4 coins. There's no need for crazy assumptions, bids on protection by Shark or something strange at all, everything is on the thread for everyone to see.
4 people said they gave coins to Shark, one of them is lying.
2 People said they gave coin to Greymon, one of them is lying. Fortunately one of the guys that gave Greymon the coin has just died and flipped town, meaning he's telling the truth and Foxlet is scum.
This is where it starts to break down. If we knew for sure that Shark sent, then Fox would be totally cooked. But there's no confirmation of that. Why can't it be that only 2 people sent to Shark, and he hung on to his coin, and the only one who actually sent to greymon was Fox?
Things of note:
-Fox had AE as a suspect the whole thread, but she gave him a coin because he would be inspected or killed anyway therefore his coin would come back to town eventually. This reasoning is crap!! Why would town risk giving money to their scumspect hoping it eventually come back to town since themselves are town? If you want the coin to come back to town, just don't send it! Why risk? This makes no sense from a town POV because she would be giving money away to get it back later.
Good point. That decision was always an incredibly dubious one and the chief reason why Fox has been my #2 suspect all game.
-Fox is constanly trying to downplay Greymon confirmed town status ("maybe he was gambitting with Wheat", "remember Wheat said Greymon was town, both could be buddies")
-Fox has not cast even a vote on the whole thread, her only vote was on WG and just because he was confirmed scum anyway. I reread her town games and she casts votes normally there, I counted like 6 votes on Triskelion when I started counting,
Will be interested in seeing her response to this.
I'm ready to vote AE, and let's ignore the vig shot, I want everyone tonight to use protection meaning scum must spend coins to kill us, reducing their money we will prevent them from getting enough money for the vig anyway.
@AE, Fox the game is over, if you guys want to concede to speed things up it will be awesome, I want to join other games.
Can't agree. This isn't settled. You have widened the field considerably, but there's still only one confirmed townie here, and to be blunt I see all four of the rest of you as potential scum on behavior.
AE - lurking, failure to follow the plan, very low content, dubious voting history
Fox - failure to follow the plan, lack of votes, bad arguments concerning greymon, poor interactions with pinky
Nis - general lurkiness, low content over the last couple of game days, very suspect vote below
DRey - reams of scum behavior from his predecessor, fuzzy math, self-proclamation as cleared
We're not done here. We still have time to go over behavior.
I'm willing to go with that. I will note that AE never said he had sent his coin according to the plan but only that he had sent his coin.
I can also believe that Fox is scum. Ever since he sent a coin to AE instead of to Caex or greymon I've been wary of him. His reasoning was junk then.
Vote AE
Wasn't crazy about how you didn't comment at all on DRey's posts except to answer his question about your voting history, but once he proposes this super plan, you're ready to throw down a vote at LyLo without even discussing it.
Actually, "wasn't crazy about [it]" doesn't really cover it. This was atrocious. FoS: Nis.
Look how Nis jumps to the vote. So eager to get the day done.
If I'm lynched you better damn well lynch him tomorrow!!!!
...If you're lynched today and you're town, there isn't going to be a tomorrow! How can you not know that? It sounds like you already know we're going to keep playing if you die. Not at all how I would expect a townie to respond at LyLo.
Cute, very cute how Fox changed, before she was defending me from Zinda, calling me "uber player" and stuff, now that I have caught her she changed her opinion of me to "disappointing" and "scummy". As of this post I'm ceasing conversation with her because discussing with scum is pointless and it's not like I can convince her she's scum anyway.
However if Nis, Greymon and Zinda have anything they want clarified I will gladly expand on my points.
@Grey I know exactly what you are seeing, I too though Nis was scum while I reread, mostly because of the way he defended scumWheat, however from my own experience town can do those things too. I kinda agree your points about not very smart for town to defend other people without knowledge of their alignment but I've lost many games because my town reads were mislynched because I lacked the guts to defend them and let them die. I'm not repeating past mistake therefore I will always speak my mind when I see a bad wagon, if I was in Pinky's position I would have defended Iso the same way she did, Iso's wagon was atrocious. I was burned before for this particular trait of my town play, in Mean Girls I defended Eron like a madman, and when he eventually flipped scum I was the next to go, town lost that game...
Nis defending Wheat is suspicious but not 100% proof of guilt, in fact from my experience scum dislike blindly defending each other, preferring to deflect, chainsaw from their buddies because it's a subtler way of protection.
Another little tidbit about me, I'm a computer science major I know exactly what you mean by number can mislead, but numbers never lie, the way they are presented is the fault. Statistic is a very valid way of playing mafia, in fact I want to present you not one but two games where I have caught the scum using this methodology of me. It really works.
I'm going to be blunt here, I'm afraid we will lose this game because of your lack of skill. I have nothing against you personally but in my reread I've noticed how wrong you were all the time. Iso even said something along the lines "Grey is too wrong to be scum" and I 100% agree, please please use your mind man, if you disagree with my case on AE and Fox I can expand on it, give you more, just ask me questions, be a townie, don't let your lack of time or maybe your dislike of my acid style cloud your judgment.
@Zinda looks like you are our last hope, if you really are town this is certainly not your best showing but despite your scum read of Pinky you can see the truth of my case, please wake up, the time is near the end, no-lynch at this point will be disastrous.
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I prefer AE to die because of coins but I can also agree with a Fox lynch at this point, both are proven liars and have consistently bucked all plans and behaved strange all game (Fox not voting, AE not doing anything while joining all town wagons). I cannot agree with anything else today.
Mini case on AE
Naked vote on Albus he later explain he voted not because he felt the guy was scum but because day was dragging, as EP noticed day wasn't dragging, the game was very low on posts and 2 or 3 guys had barely posted. (Mirror_Entity for example had just posted once) http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8724741#post8724741
This is the turning point, Iso wagon was stalled for quite sometime, pressure was starting to shift into Wheat, AE started to be fear Iso could escape the lynch so he needed a reason to hop into his towniest read. http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8828245#post8828245
I feel there's little doubt about AE at this point since he has:
a)participated on all town wagons (even the ones he initially disliked)
b)never interacted with WHeat, and this goes both ways, Wheat also never interacted with him.
c)quickhammered to cease conversation about the plans on D2.
d)Has done NOTHNG the whole game.
e)Fully ignored Wheat wagon even when he was confirmed scum.
f)Killed EP because he was questioning him at the end of D1.
Private Mod Note
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
I see Zinda has posted, I going to lunch now but when I come back I will answer any questions for me.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Fact, I know you and Zindy are good players. However, I see you didn't read my meta at all. You just scoped it out looking for things to prove your point. I get pissed when things are skewed. Vamp and Republicans i did the same thing so that argument is null.
You also didn't actually respond do any points. Why is that?
And as AE said, I don't know if there is going to be a tommorrow but you are making it look less likely. I have stuff to do today, but expect a real (not phone post) later.
I said towniest not greymon, because if we don't plan to pool coins toDay scum will just NK him. Confirmed townies on lylo are bad for scum therefore I want to pool coins in the towniest not Greymon to make scum decide between killing confirmed coinless townie Grey or unconfirmed pursefull someone else. Considering latest developments I retract my choice from Fox to you as I trust you slighly more than Nis. CAN EVERYONE ALSO ANSWER THIS PLEASE?
You make good points in A through D. You already know that E is WIFOM, and F isn't really accurate, considering Wheat, pinky, and greymon all have past experience with E_P.
I don't know WGs and PBs meta. But wasn't this greymon first game since three years ago or something? and didn't he replace in after EP was killed? but that's not a strong point anyway.
I've always seen AE as scum suspect #3, behind you and Fox. He's just been too low-content to be for real, but I wasn't aware he was posting in other games as well.
On seasons AE was also low content but he at least tried to follow his instincs ("Kpaca is scum") and push his cases. Here he's not doing anything, even his push on Shark felt weak and he never really tried to get him lynched. I also think is really strange to keep posting elsewhere while you ignore the game that's probably in lylo... but now that the pressure has started shifting into him looks like he will post more.
For you to suggest him as the other half of "my" scumteam is an interesting move. I mean, let's evaluate it from a scum perspective. You must know you aren't getting me lynched, so it has to be option #2, which according to you is AE. If he's your scumbuddy, you're gambling a lot on gaining town cred by bussing him and going after me/Nis/Fox on the last day.
After finishing my reread and getting the whole picture I can only accept a AE and Fox as scum, actually I have documented "cases" on everyone because I saw strange things on all of guys while rereading, but as I can't see anyone else besides Fox and AE being scum I see no point in expanding that.
Just "interactions"? How about positive or negative interactions?
I dislike qualifying interactions because I think it's an easy way for scum to falsify data, because it's easy to argue "you think that's scummy but I believe that's townie". My data is raw and I can provide the links of it all because I have documented all in a google doc, I'm not trying to falsify anything. Also from my experience scum dislike to interact with each other period.
I also already made 2 cases stating how pinky did not actually pressure Wheat. I don't know if you read those or not yet, but I reject that attempt to state it as canon.
Fine, but we will have to agree to disagree here, in my opinion PB was pushing for WG HARD and when no one was really paying attention to him, heck she even noticed Poggy lurking, Poggy is a big spammer like Iso, the fact he was lurking here and eventually disappeared was a big tell.
This part isn't doing a whole lot for me. Vote analysis like this is a lot more useful on D5 or D6 of a large game with 2-3 scum down, so you can really take a look at what patterns exist. For you to say "never voted scum" so far when we've only had one scum is a little disingenuous.
To state it another way, I recognize that this date is "all we have", but when the sample size is as small as it is here, we're better off not using data analysis like this at all, since the margin for error is so great and the stakes, at this point, are so high.
This data is outdated, but I agree it's not very interesting for the reasons you state, but I don't think it should be completely disregarded anyway. That being said it's certainly a minor point (if I remember well I even said "that's not very important" myself).
True, but I also point you to D1 of Ender's Mafia, where Art does indeed tunnel on someone (AsianInvasion), but put together a considerable case to try to implicate him. Here, as you said, he just sat around and called people scum, then replaced out.
I think he was just disengaged in general from whatever eventually caused him to replace out and that's the reason for the behavior you describe above, rather than what I consider his actual scum behavior, which more closely resembles Ender's.
That's moot now. You certainly can't be scum with AE and AE is my biggest scumread.
Like I said, I made 2 cases where I establish, in detail and with evidence, that pinky's interactions with both Iso and Wheat are not what you describe them as. I also made note of how she lied about her past experience with me, put Albus at L-1 in an attempt to pre-empt me from contributing on D1, then blamed Nis for hammering after she'd done the dirty work of setting him up, and totally tried to escape having to respond to my accusations by trying to get into night. We remember how N3 went, I hope?
I'm not Pinky so I can't really explain why she "lied" about experiences from you or anything else but it thing this can be explained because she simply confused something she read for something she experienced. I have read so many games sometimes I confuse things I've read for things I have actually participated.
According to you, I'm scum for being "wrong about everything", but the only thing I'm wrong about that you actually mention is that I don't consider you to be town.
When I said that I believed you to be wrong about Foxlet too, considering just this Day I felt she was town because she was actually trying to do something while most of the guys were busy doing nothing. Now that I believe Fox to be scum you were only wrong about: Iso and PB/me. Not much but certainly far from your game on Ender where I don't remember you being wrong about anything.
Not to mention that once again your data is simply too small a sample size. You start with a good foundation - scum have trouble interacting with one another - but then your conclusions are wild extrapolations that have no basis in reality.
Examples? I think my conclusions are pretty good considering what we have.
In minis, it's quality, not quantity. If you had thrown up a huge quote wall that listed every one of the interactions Wheat had with the players you list above, and described how they were positive or negative, that would've been excellent analysis and something we could really sink our teeth into. This stuff is just numbers, though, and I get the feeling you're trying to bluff us with math. Replace in, flash-bang charm offensive, numbers, Qs, and poof! You're cleared, game's settled, concede now, scum.
I'm not that great at math, but stat was always my strong point, and I remember enough to know this stuff is BS.
It's not BS, I've done this successfully before so I tend trying to repeat past successes. I have already explained why I didn't try to analyse the quotes but that's a idea I dig.
Again, I do agree with the Wheat-AE link, although I will point out that ME had made absolutely no posts at this time, whereas AE had at least been vaguely participating.
Yup, this makes thing even more damming for AE, because he has been playing since the start he has 37 posts, wheat also has a lot of posts yet both of them have NEVER talked, questioned, commented or quoted each other.
Again with the caveat of "only one scum, so not voting him isn't as egregious as you think it is", I approve of this line of attack.
I never though it was egregious just something of note. Considering we only have one scum and his wagon was just "cop confirmed scum" we can't extract much from votes on scum. My main point was that he managed to cast 4 total votes in a game he really isn't playing.
This is where it starts to break down. If we knew for sure that Shark sent, then Fox would be totally cooked. But there's no confirmation of that. Why can't it be that only 2 people sent to Shark, and he hung on to his coin, and the only one who actually sent to greymon was Fox?
It totally can be, because town can lie too so even though Shark said he was ready and was committed to the plan he could have not followed it. But how likely is that? I think it's very low imho. Because we know Shark is town, we know he has been following the plans so far (N1 big all money, N2 give to towniest) so I expect him to continue that trend.
Good point. That decision was always an incredibly dubious one and the chief reason why Fox has been my #2 suspect all game.
I think I even know why she admitted that... when I was scum on Enders we where afraid of a "commander vote tracker" so we tried to play around it while we could. I think they may have been afraid of being somehow caught on a coins tracker or lying somehow (yeah now we all know this is a open setup but maybe them didn't believed on that back there). In any case there's no way for townFox to ever give a coin to one of her scumreads.
Will be interested in seeing her response to this.
She kinda responded and it didn't convince me. She said "in my other game vampires I was vote shy too, why didn't you read that game", but that's bogus because.
1)My life doesn't revolve around mafia, I have already spend lots of time skimming one game of her and when I noticed she's was lying I see no point in continuing my research.
2)The way they both answered my question was also telling, Nis gave me links, make it easy for me, she said "go read my blog". Because of this I almost ignored her meta I read Nis most recent town game and found it consistent with what he said. I only got interested in reading her games when I discovered she gave AE coins for craptastic reasons, that's when I searched her blog and discovered she was lying about that.
3)When one says "I'm like that in all my games" if doesn't require lots of game to disprove it, just one and after finding one (the very first one I read) I stopped searching for more.
4)I choose Triskelion for three reasons: very recent game (2 months old?), she was town and lived until late. In vampire she died early (N1?) therefore counting if she cast many votes there would be misleading.
@Fox you mentioned getting in an argument before for being vote shy, which game this particular discussion took place? can you provide the link?
In mafia almost everything can be seen as WIFOM, and scum greatly benefits from this defense. I agree with you Grey was the obvious NK and I disagree this quote of Shark ("I will be investigating Fox or AE") is a very valid point.
Can't agree. This isn't settled. You have widened the field considerably, but there's still only one confirmed townie here, and to be blunt I see all four of the rest of you as potential scum on behavior.
AE - lurking, failure to follow the plan, very low content, dubious voting history
Fox - failure to follow the plan, lack of votes, bad arguments concerning greymon, poor interactions with pinky
Nis - general lurkiness, low content over the last couple of game days, very suspect vote below
DRey - reams of scum behavior from his predecessor, fuzzy math, self-proclamation as cleared
We're not done here. We still have time to go over behavior.
Fully agree with this, I could also enumerate reasons for why you are scum, but I would be lying to myself if I considered you to be scum at this point. I have no rush to end this day or conversation but deadline is coming and this town is slow to post (this include you) so if you have things to say please be quick.
...If you're lynched today and you're town, there isn't going to be a tomorrow! How can you not know that? It sounds like you already know we're going to keep playing if you die. Not at all how I would expect a townie to respond at LyLo.
It's worse than that, I think AE next step is "oh we are in lylo, I wasn't really paying attention, after this townslip I can't be scum, let's lynch Nis".
Fact, I know you and Zindy are good players
That's the second time you said this, I ignored the first time because I had a town read of you but I have a question for you.
How do you know I'm a good player?
And as AE said, I don't know if there is going to be a tommorrow but you are making it look less likely. I have stuff to do today, but expect a real (not phone post) later.
But I'm pushing for AE lynch today not yours, why do you say there will be no tomorrow since you have no way to know AE's alignment, haven't you recently said you believe AE is scum?
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Anything more we need to discuss? I want to particularly get input from Grey, Zinda and Nis.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
AE and Fox: For the reasons DRey laid out. I hate to /barn him but I'm pressed for time for the next few days so I can't really go back and do a proper analysis.
Fox and greymon: I'm still open to the possibility that greymon and Wheat ran a spectacular gambit to plant greymon as firmly town. greymon did claim to have received just one and Fox claims to have sent a coin to greymon prompting to greymon to "clear Fox." Granted it was early in the day. The way Fox fought against me asserting that the two scum must be in the Shark pool sticks out at me.
She kinda responded and it didn't convince me. She said "in my other game vampires I was vote shy too, why didn't you read that game", but that's bogus because.
1)My life doesn't revolve around mafia, I have already spend lots of time skimming one game of her and when I noticed she's was lying I see no point in continuing my research.
2)The way they both answered my question was also telling, Nis gave me links, make it easy for me, she said "go read my blog". Because of this I almost ignored her meta I read Nis most recent town game and found it consistent with what he said. I only got interested in reading her games when I discovered she gave AE coins for craptastic reasons, that's when I searched her blog and discovered she was lying about that.
3)When one says "I'm like that in all my games" if doesn't require lots of game to disprove it, just one and after finding one (the very first one I read) I stopped searching for more.
4)I choose Triskelion for three reasons: very recent game (2 months old?), she was town and lived until late. In vampire she died early (N1?) therefore counting if she cast many votes there would be misleading.
@Fox you mentioned getting in an argument before for being vote shy, which game this particular discussion took place? can you provide the link?
I wanted to respond to this quickly before my next appointment. Because...again...you are Buddying Nis.
I said, all my games are in my blog. I even make it easy for the lazy (ya'll can check if you haven't). They ARE hyperlinked so you can just click the links. from the my blog. So "Nis provided links" and I didn't is again, crap. So tell me again...EXACTLY how I'm lying? I have nothing in my blog except mafia stats, if you want to make a crap case on me with crap facts, you I expect you to do more research. That is my point. My life doesn't revolve around Mafia either, I try to make it easy on people which is WHY I made my blog hyperlinked. So, calling you out on BS.
Trisk which was my SECOND game. It ended in MAY. Oh and because you are too sufficiently busy to click more than 2 extra links, I did provide all the links this time. I did also add more information. Trisk, was pretty much over after I was NK. They lynched Arn (if I remember correctly) which led to the scum win....Sure...lets say I voted what did you say? 6 times? I'm assuming you aren't counting RVS?
Vampire, Ended *LAST MONTH* - I placed 4 votes, which ended with me self hammering as town because the rest of the town was IMO being dense. I was there until mid game.
Republicans - I only voted ONCE. Also finished end of July.
Also, Scum slip much? You said "the first game you read" in regards to Trisk. And yet you said you picked that one over Vamp because you thought I died in N1, which makes me think you DID, in FACT scroll through them all looking for information to twist.
Vamp I lasted until D3 (listed as N3 because the days and nights were reversed). Republicans, I was the D2 NK and Trisk I was NK D3. So...want to lie a bit more? So, both of those games not only finished SOONER, but I voted less.
As for the arguments, the main one is here...In Vamp...it starts here and you can see it continue. I was pretty sure I mentioned it in republicans in one of the arguments with Zeld (because he mentioned how he doesn't like to vote). Also, not an argument...but originally mentioned in Trisk (though I kinda remember Gricky and I going back and forth about it for a while at some point). And my first game Cirque.
You are just digging your grave with this data. You have said yourself you casted many votes on all your town games except for the one you replaced in and died early, yeah that's reassuring.
In this game you have only cast one vote and when Wheat's lynch was a foregone conclusion so it's even less meaningful. This is exactly the kind of stuff noob scum does even without noticing (this is your first game as scum right?), you are so afraid of being caught you didn't cast any vote the whole game without even noticing.
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I also noticed this while rereading once again.
Caex, if you win the bid, I cannot implore you strongly enough not to waste the Cop shot on Wheat. He is scum. There is no "if" to it. If you're going to Cop anybody, make it AE.
So Iso is calling for Wheaties head the entire time and pretty much saying don't waste an investigation on him....and what does grey do
So In the very same post you first try to mudsling Grey because you feel he's lying and WG is town, in the end of your post you suddenly believe Grey is telling the truth and you put a sad face because he have just "wasted" a investigation on SCUM.
There's no way for you to be town at this point. You are 100% caught scum.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Conclusion
AE has tunneled on Shark the whole game, despite Shark being his biggest suspect on last day suddenly he had a change of heart and decided Shark was the best choice for receiving a coin so he decided the best course of action was to contradict the plan even considering he would receive a lot of flame for doing it. This makes total sense, according to Fox of course, after all the plan consisted of AE giving a coin to his biggest townread (Grey) and not for his biggest scumread (Shark), unacceptable!
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Another interesting coincidence. Remember when AE had the great idea of giving his coin to his biggest town read so he could at least be a bit useful on #573? You guys want to know for whom he gave his coin? The answer is in #715
It's kinda unfortunate Caex died that night so he couldn't confirm AE's generosity... exactly like Shark on the next night... what a strange coincidence, maybe AE is confusing "sending coins to" with "sending my NK to". Well I think AE should send his coin to Fox tonight so hopefully she ends up dead tomorrow.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Yeah, I get it, I'm not the towniest town. I'm not even the best town. Just lynch me already and let the scum win. Call that Anti-Town of me but whatever. It's the only way to prove I'm town and DRey's entire case on me is overinflated. And no, I'm not joking, difference is...I'm not going to self lynch I'm beginning to agree with grey that DRey and Nis are the scum team.
@ DRey - response to your how do I know you are a good player. Iso is one of my best friends. While I haven't been playing long, I've been reading some of his games in part, off and on since Flame Warriors (whenever the hell that was). I know WHO a lot of the "better" players are, even though I don't exactly their meta.
You have said yourself you casted many votes on all your town games except for the one you replaced in and died early, yeah that's reassuring
Oh...so you DID read them...like I was pretty sure you had when you picked Trisk as your example.
Why do you want everyone to answer the question of who they think is the towniest when you stated it was a good idea to have everyone to turtle down and save coins. Waffle much? I think you are trying to get intel.
You also state poggy is a big spammer. Maybe in games you have played with poggy, but the reason I counted poggy null to start was because having just finished a game with him, he wasn't I would say...a high frequency poster.
Yeah, you re posting that was meaningless without context...the context was that I was advocating Iso's plan to f'ing LYNCH WHEAT AND NOT WASTE A INVESTIGATION ON HIM.
As much as you and Zindy like to think less of my intellect. I'm smart enough to know that unless we lynch scum today, the town is probably hosed. I already said why, but you chose to ignore it AGAIN. Town is currently 4-2. With a town mislynch that puts us 3-2. If the scum very likely have the vig shot which means they can instant win. You or Zindy can correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that USUALLY considered lylo?
@ Zindy - It wasn't a failure to grasp it. I know what you are saying. Scum get to coordinate. They got to start early AND they get to work around our plans we make in the day time. I just found the N3 plan better because it cut out the "trust me...really" If someone didn't follow the plan, it narrowed down the possibilities.
I really need to stop implying things...This was the post I was thinking of originally and then the followup. When you were arguing with pinky about it later.
Thank you for clarifying the point on grey. It's exactly why I was asking *because* of the way the game was set up. As I said, it seemed like some people were just going hey grey is town! It seemed inconsistent (to me) that you would say grey is only town after investigating a scum, but also giving an example of kpaca throwing his buddies under the bus in seasons. It's why I wanted clarification Make sense?
I caught the scum team, and they are BOTH trying to smear me.
Drey, nothing personal, but I think you're being arrogant, and your tl;dr posts are aggravating. You're droning on and on without really saying anything. I know fluff, and your posts are fluff. I've been playing this game a LONG time, and cut my teeth when some of the best mafia players on this site cut theirs. I went a little crazy, and left the site for awhile, and while I may be rusty and quite frankly lazy (I can't find the time or the energy to go back and quote stuff the way I should, or do PBPA, etc.) I can read people. My skill (or lackthereof) has nothing to do with this. Is there a possibility I'm wrong? Absolutely, but I've felt Nis has been scum since the beginning of this Day, and now I'm positive of it. And you coaching him, buddying him, and shining the spotlight so hard on other people has made me believe you're the other scum.
There's 6 of us left:
Me
Zindabad
Foxlet
Archmage_Eternal
Drey
Nis
Zindy has read town to me since the beginning. Scum don't come up with arguments the way his was earlier. He garnered town points in my eyes, and has stayed this way. Fox was largely up in the air for me, and oddly enough if I were to want to lynch her it would only because Iso pegged her as scum, but that's not enough to go on. Iso is overconfident in his reads at best, and her reactions as of late peg her town in my eyes. AE is a lurker. I've played other games with him (back in '09, when I was starting, but it was still the same). HE. LURKS. Lurking is a null tell, and since he is willing to vote Nis who I feel is 100%scum I'm willing to save him for the next day for closer evaluation if need be.
If anyone wants my PBPA of Nis let me know. I'll do my best to do it, but like I said if you go and search this thread for all his posts, and start reading you'll see why I think he's scum right now.
Vote: Nis
I will no longer be cooperating with anything Drey suggests, as I feel he is the other scum member.
@Foxlet: Nobody should have taken me for confirmed town because WG said I was. When he flipped scum though, I'm the closest we've got. Go back and reread me and Arn, and you see that he was the towniest player while he was here, and I have done absolutely the best I could at every turn of this game to ensure the town wins. I invite everyone to take a closer look at me if they have any kind of suspicions, because that's what we NEED to do. It's why I took a closer look at Nis, because I got tired of him getting a free pass. Something didn't add up to me, and when I looked it jumped right off the page at me.
I caught the scum team, and they are BOTH trying to smear me.
Wait. I'm trying to smear you? And DRey is as well? Where?
I'm just keeping a possibility open. It's something that has been nagging me but it's nothing I would consider a smear. I feel more strongly about Fox and AE than Fox and you. The Fox and you pairing is the only other possibility I feel it could be, that's why I listed it.
If anyone wants my PBPA of Nis let me know. I'll do my best to do it, but like I said if you go and search this thread for all his posts, and start reading you'll see why I think he's scum right now.
I'd like it. Can't defend myself if nothing concrete is presented.
Of course we have just five days left so some decision should be made.
@Greymon I'm arrogant, I'm a braggart, I'm annoying and I know this all however I'm not scum and those are also not reasons to believe so, I've presented town data, I'm quoted, I've researched, I've proved Fox and AE are both scum, the data is all on the table, if you disagree or think I'm lying or misrepping say so and question me, so I can address your concerns, because Nis is not scum, I'm not scum, Zinda is not scum and you is not scum.
This is baffling, it's unfortunate but looks like we will lose just because of your stubbornness because we need 4 votes for a lynch and if you refuse to vote AE and Fox we will lose because there's no tomorrow.
If the only one you trust is Zinda (btw you trust him for bad reasons, scum can totally make good, smart posts and Zinda is very very good as scum) please hear him because I think after everything I've posted there's no way for him to not agree with me.
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
I'm beginning to agree with grey that DRey and Nis are the scum team.
Look at this Greymon, when the day started she had Pinky solid as a town read, when I replaced in she said I was a uber player and agreed with everything I said against Zinda (buddying), now that I've caught her I'm suddenly her biggest suspect, Zinda is nowhere to be seen, and she's buddying with you (that conveniently don't think AE or her are scum). Her reads have just 180° again.
@ DRey - response to your how do I know you are a good player. Iso is one of my best friends. While I haven't been playing long, I've been reading some of his games in part, off and on since Flame Warriors (whenever the hell that was). I know WHO a lot of the "better" players are, even though I don't exactly their meta.
Fox is lying again. I've never played Flame Warriors and no one but me considers me a good player, Iso particularly think I'm godawful. Fox tried to buddy up with me before by randonly saying I'm one of the best players when no one else thinks so.
I'm not proud to say this but my last games were pretty bad and I've screwed up way to much, I've even be accused of playing against my wincon in Kill Bill mafia and I'm currently being investigated by the council for my atrocious play on that game.
Oh...so you DID read them...like I was pretty sure you had when you picked Trisk as your example.
No, I've already told you I didn't read them because it's written in the description of your blog("town, died N2"). That's meaningless though, you have said so yourself you have casted a lot of votes as town on all your games except one, conveniently one that you died on N2 and replaced in therefore one you had a little time to cast votes anyway.
You also state poggy is a big spammer. Maybe in games you have played with poggy, but the reason I counted poggy null to start was because having just finished a game with him, he wasn't I would say...a high frequency poster.
Poggy is a well know spammer and I can provide you with lots of games where he shows this, I have no knowledge of a game where Poggy doesn't spam but feel free to show me, if you can.
Yeah, you re posting that was meaningless without context...the context was that I was advocating Iso's plan to f'ing LYNCH WHEAT AND NOT WASTE A INVESTIGATION ON HIM.
I've quoted the context When Greymon said WG was guilty you said "But greymon said if Iso flipped town he would not investigate Wheat, now he's saying WG is guilty, how curious :rolleyes:" You used the rolleyes smile to imply Greymon was gambitting scum and WG was town you can't erase your previous posts and hell I've even quoted it, it's there for everyone to see, you can't deny you were trying to cast suspicion on Grey's investigation.
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Look at this Greymon, when the day started she had Pinky solid as a town read, when I replaced in she said I was a uber player and agreed with everything I said against Zinda (buddying), now that I've caught her I'm suddenly her biggest suspect, Zinda is nowhere to be seen, and she's buddying with you (that conveniently don't think AE or her are scum). Her reads have just 180° again.
I've never played Flame Warriors and no one but me considers me a good player, Iso particularly think I'm godawful.
I wouldn't say Iso thinks you are godawful ;)...except after your last play. And yes, I do know about the Kill bill. I do read the council thread from time to time. Defensiveness noted. I did not say "you were in Flame warriors". This is what I did say:
While I haven't been playing long, I've been reading some of his games in part, off and on since Flame Warriors (whenever the hell that was). I know WHO a lot of the "better" players are, even though I don't exactly their meta.
Since you made referance to Iso, you clearly knew that I was talking about him when I said reading "HIS" games since flame warriors. I did not say anywhere that YOU were in Flame Warriors. And, play style is a matter of opinion. Some people don't like Iso's because he does some really crazy stuff all the time. It's a matter of what is generally considered acceptable in "normal" mafia play and what isn't.
Dragon got pretty PO'd in Vamp because I had what I considered a multi wincon. When I decided I couldn't win one part, I decided to help the town win. He thought that was grossly unfair and was "playing against my wincon". I bring that up because that isn't considered "normal" mafia behavior. I do things that aren't "normal"
No, I've already told you I didn't read them because it's written in the description of your blog("town, died N2"). That's meaningless though, you have said so yourself you have casted a lot of votes as town on all your games except one, conveniently one that you died on N2 and replaced in therefore one you had a little time to cast votes anyway.
So, you are comparing apples to oranges. 6 votes vs 4 votes vs 1 vote. Even 6 votes is rather abysmal. As I've said, it was also my second game and not to be compared to my current games.
My basic point is that if you *didn't* read or browse the games, why didn't you go with the most similar game to this one?
Republicans...finished sooner AND I replaced in. JUST LIKE THIS GAME.
Or hell, even Vampire. More current game AND I lasted the equivalent amount of time as Trisk?
I'm saying that yes, you did, in fact go to Trisk to find out which had the highest vote count just to prove your point.
Poggy is a well know spammer and I can provide you with lots of games where he shows this, I have no knowledge of a game where Poggy doesn't spam but feel free to show me, if you can.
As I told you, I just got finished with a game with him...that would be Vampire. He posted somewhat frequently in the beginning and was pretty nonexistent towards the end game. His posting habits would not be on par with Iso by any stretch of the imagination.
You used the rolleyes smile to imply Greymon was gambitting scum and WG was town
If anyone wants my PBPA of Nis let me know. I'll do my best to do it, but like I said if you go and search this thread for all his posts, and start reading you'll see why I think he's scum right now
I would like it. I will also re-read Nis again and try to put my own notes out there. I'll try for today because of the deadline forthcoming, but it might not be until tomorrow.
@Foxlet: Nobody should have taken me for confirmed town because WG said I was. When he flipped scum though, I'm the closest we've got.
No, and I realize that. Zindy pretty much cleared things up for me because the disconnect in my mind between when Wheat "confirmed" (ie investigated) you and several people acted like you were indeed confirmed at that point....god forbid anyone speak ill of you. And the point where you caught Wheat...make sense? Those two weren't adding up in my mind.
I feel more strongly about Fox and AE than Fox and you. The Fox and you pairing is the only other possibility I feel it could be, that's why I listed it.
So according to this your sold on Fox being scum but your voting me. It's Fox and someone else so lets vote the someone else. Care to explain?
So according to this your sold on Fox being scum but your voting me. It's Fox and someone else so lets vote the someone else. Care to explain?
I've been too lazy to change my vote. I'd be happy with either one of you being lynched today because I think you're both scum. I keep saying I'm open to the possibility of Fox and greymon being scum, but it's a remote possibility.
On seasons AE was also low content but he at least tried to follow his instincs ("Kpaca is scum") and push his cases. Here he's not doing anything, even his push on Shark felt weak and he never really tried to get him lynched. I also think is really strange to keep posting elsewhere while you ignore the game that's probably in lylo... but now that the pressure has started shifting into him looks like he will post more.
I can go back to pinky's posts and show you how her "push" on Wheat was a load of nonsense too. I agree about the posting other places and sudden sharp increase in posting rate, however.
I dislike qualifying interactions because I think it's an easy way for scum to falsify data, because it's easy to argue "you think that's scummy but I believe that's townie". My data is raw and I can provide the links of it all because I have documented all in a google doc, I'm not trying to falsify anything. Also from my experience scum dislike to interact with each other period.
I never accused anyone of falsifying data, just misusing, intentionally or unintentionally. Another possible incident of this is how you seemed to cherrypick your meta on Fox, which I'm not wild about.
Fine, but we will have to agree to disagree here, in my opinion PB was pushing for WG HARD and when no one was really paying attention to him, heck she even noticed Poggy lurking, Poggy is a big spammer like Iso, the fact he was lurking here and eventually disappeared was a big tell.
I think his (poggy's) playstyle has been shifting to a more sedate posting rate lately, for what it's worth.
That's moot now. You certainly can't be scum with AE and AE is my biggest scumread.
Why not? You've alluded to this a couple of times. Why not me and AE? The world doesn't end when we work together, you know. Sometimes we even win. Other times he kills me when I'm his own ally.
When I said that I believed you to be wrong about Foxlet too, considering just this Day I felt she was town because she was actually trying to do something while most of the guys were busy doing nothing. Now that I believe Fox to be scum you were only wrong about: Iso and PB/me. Not much but certainly far from your game on Ender where I don't remember youbeing wrong about anything.
I never though it was egregious just something of note. Considering we only have one scum and his wagon was just "cop confirmed scum" we can't extract much from votes on scum. My main point was that he managed to cast 4 total votes in a game he really isn't playing.
Yes, it is dubious. How about Fox and Nis, though? More posts and fewer votes is a little scary to me as well. I voted exactly once as scum in LOTR II in 24 posts. Nis and Fox have a lot more than that.
I think I even know why she admitted that... when I was scum on Enders we where afraid of a "commander vote tracker" so we tried to play around it while we could. I think they may have been afraid of being somehow caught on a coins tracker or lying somehow (yeah now we all know this is a open setup but maybe them didn't believed on that back there). In any case there's no way for townFox to ever give a coin to one of her scumreads.
Yeah. I think this is the best part of the case. I think Fox is scum.
In mafia almost everything can be seen as WIFOM, and scum greatly benefits from this defense. I agree with you Grey was the obvious NK and I disagree this quote of Shark ("I will be investigating Fox or AE") is a very valid point.
Sticking to my guns here. For example, on N1, I think E_P was a suspect more than a likely NK. He was under pressure for bad interactions with Albus. I would have considered him a suspect had he survived. But he got killed. Why? The most obvious conclusion is because he was on to someone and they needed him dead, but that's WIFOM again - the scum could've killed him to cast suspicion on those people who he suspected who are actually townies.
Same situation here. Scum could have killed Shark in order to protect themselves (Fox and/or AE) from an investigation, or to incriminate the people who he publicly stated suspicion of. Two equally likely possibilities, one of which will result in disaster, is the textbook definition of WIFOM.
AE and Fox: For the reasons DRey laid out. I hate to /barn him but I'm pressed for time for the next few days so I can't really go back and do a proper analysis.
Fox and greymon: I'm still open to the possibility that greymon and Wheat ran a spectacular gambit to plant greymon as firmly town. greymon did claim to have received just one and Fox claims to have sent a coin to greymon prompting to greymon to "clear Fox." Granted it was early in the day. The way Fox fought against me asserting that the two scum must be in the Shark pool sticks out at me.
No response to my post concerning you?
Also, if Fox is the common denominator in your scumpairs, why not vote her? PPE: I see AE will later ask you the same question.
As much as you and Zindy like to think less of my intellect. I'm smart enough to know that unless we lynch scum today, the town is probably hosed. I already said why, but you chose to ignore it AGAIN. Town is currently 4-2. With a town mislynch that puts us 3-2. If the scum very likely have the vig shot which means they can instant win. You or Zindy can correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that USUALLY considered lylo?
Now, hold on. I never questioned or thought less of your intellect. There are just certain conventions that seem obvious to people who have been playing for a long time, like me, that are not obvious to newer players.
Also, your math is a bit off. The scum won't need the vig shot to win tonight if we mislynch today. It'll be 3-2 going into night, and they'll just NK a townie and win automatically.
@ Zindy - It wasn't a failure to grasp it. I know what you are saying. Scum get to coordinate. They got to start early AND they get to work around our plans we make in the day time. I just found the N3 plan better because it cut out the "trust me...really" If someone didn't follow the plan, it narrowed down the possibilities.
You may have misinterpreted me here. I said Iso failed to grasp it, not you.
Thank you for clarifying the point on grey. It's exactly why I was asking *because* of the way the game was set up. As I said, it seemed like some people were just going hey grey is town! It seemed inconsistent (to me) that you would say grey is only town after investigating a scum, but also giving an example of kpaca throwing his buddies under the bus in seasons. It's why I wanted clarification Make sense?
And again, it is possible that greymon bussed Wheat the same way that kpaca bussed Void. I just find it incredibly unlikely considering his behavior and the way Wheat went down. I think he's confirmed.
I think you're scum, too. There's just no way around how you deviated from the plan N2, I'm afraid. Giving the coin to Caex, greymon, Shark, or a couple of other townie-seeming players would make sense if you wanted to bail on the plan. Giving it to AE was a bizarre, incomprehensible move, and I think there's a scum motive for it that will become apparent after the game is over.
I caught the scum team, and they are BOTH trying to smear me.
Drey, nothing personal, but I think you're being arrogant, and your tl;dr posts are aggravating. You're droning on and on without really saying anything. I know fluff, and your posts are fluff. I've been playing this game a LONG time, and cut my teeth when some of the best mafia players on this site cut theirs. I went a little crazy, and left the site for awhile, and while I may be rusty and quite frankly lazy (I can't find the time or the energy to go back and quote stuff the way I should, or do PBPA, etc.) I can read people. My skill (or lackthereof) has nothing to do with this. Is there a possibility I'm wrong? Absolutely, but I've felt Nis has been scum since the beginning of this Day, and now I'm positive of it. And you coaching him, buddying him, and shining the spotlight so hard on other people has made me believe you're the other scum.
There's 6 of us left:
Me
Zindabad
Foxlet
Archmage_Eternal
Drey
Nis
Zindy has read town to me since the beginning. Scum don't come up with arguments the way his was earlier. He garnered town points in my eyes, and has stayed this way. Fox was largely up in the air for me, and oddly enough if I were to want to lynch her it would only because Iso pegged her as scum, but that's not enough to go on. Iso is overconfident in his reads at best, and her reactions as of late peg her town in my eyes. AE is a lurker. I've played other games with him (back in '09, when I was starting, but it was still the same). HE. LURKS. Lurking is a null tell, and since he is willing to vote Nis who I feel is 100%scum I'm willing to save him for the next day for closer evaluation if need be.
If anyone wants my PBPA of Nis let me know. I'll do my best to do it, but like I said if you go and search this thread for all his posts, and start reading you'll see why I think he's scum right now.
Vote: Nis
I will no longer be cooperating with anything Drey suggests, as I feel he is the other scum member.
I would like to hear, if not a full PBPA, a summary of your points against Nis. I see a lot of description of everyone else but not much that actually talks about him. I'm finding him scummier and scummier and would like to see what you have on him.
I've been too lazy to change my vote. I'd be happy with either one of you being lynched today because I think you're both scum. I keep saying I'm open to the possibility of Fox and greymon being scum, but it's a remote possibility.
Again, "too lazy" and "happy with [this other scummy person] being lynched, but still voting you" are classic scum language. You say the possibility of AE being scum is greater than the possibility of greymon being scum, which makes sense. Let's even say 85% scum for AE and 15% for greymon. Those are arbitrary numbers.
Scumpair 1 (85% likely): AE, Fox
Scumpair 2 (15% likely): greymon, Fox
Probability that AE is scum: 85%
Probability that greymon is scum: 15%
Probability that Fox is scum: 100%
Quick post, let's try to make a new plan, considering we lynch Fox today and Nis tomorrow.
There's 4 town and 2 scum, if we mislynch today we will lose so let's consider we will lynch correctly. 4 town 1 scum
The scum kill one on the night. 3 town 1 scum
Tomorrow considering we don't have vig if we:
lynch correctly: We win
lynch wrong: it will be 2 town and 1 scum and will lose on night
Tomorrow if we do have the vig and mislynch we will be 2 town and 1 scum, considering we vig correctly and the scum NK we can win even if we mislynch. 1 town and 0 scum
I would prefer we lynch AE toDay since my case on him is stronger but I'm also fine with a Fox lynch today, nonetheless I'm afraid Nis is just really bad town so we will lose tomorrow if we lynch him, therefore I want to have insurance of the vig with us just in case we lynch him and he flips town. Meaning I think we need to massclaim coins to guarantee a way that we can get two townies to have 5 coins (Greymon, Zinda and me are nice options imho).
To hasten the process I will just claim my coins. I started with zero, gained two and gave one to shark last night. I'm currently with 1. I'm fine giving it to Grey or Zinda.
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
As I said before and I wasn't lying...if you want the town to lose, lynch me if you can get 4 votes because I will not self lynch this time. I'm not sure if the game will go into no lynch if not?
I know you all think I'm scum, and the only way I can prove I'm not is by my death.
I'm currently working on the Nis analysis with a few thoughts on pinky (and random finds) thrown in as well.
EBWOP:
Vote Nis
Yep, DRey and Nis, scum team.
DRey's latest post clinches it... His recent post of "lynch Fox and lynch Nis tomorrow".
Ok...I know...everyone TOWN who thinks I'm scum...open mind time. We all agree it's lylo.
OK, you lynch me and I flip town which I will, believe it or not...There will be no tomorrow... so there will be no "voting Nis". I think its an attempt to get the town to vote anyone town to hurry into night phase. First AE, now me. grey is clearly off limits, and based on earlier arguments if Zindy is town as well that would be a battle he couldn't win. Gogo low hanging fruit.
Having said all that, I still stand by what I said to start with...if you want to lynch me be my guest but I will not self hammer. Also, I reserve the right to say "I told you so" post game
Can you guys stop voting? We are still discussing things. AE and Fox can vote because they are scum, but Nis and Grey have no excuse.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Will be working on the PBPA for most of the night tonight, and hopefully I don't fall asleep doing it.
By the way, DRey did seal his on fate with that last post about lynching fox, then Nis.
AE thinks Nis is scum, I think Nis is scum, Fox thinks Nis is scum, and apparently so does Drey...sooo who does he advocate voting?
Not Nis?! Are you kidding me? We all think he's scum, and you're like "Umm...no guys let's lynch Fox now" rather than "yeah let's lynch the guy we all think is scum and figure out the rest later?"
Yeah, we vote for Nis now and you tomorrow. You're showing a sense of urgency, to get this game to go to Night so you can win, and it's not gonna happen.
Not done reviewing yet. About a page and a half to go with 60 PPP. Just wanted to throw this out there first. Will probably adjust things once I get done, especially if what I'm about to note has already been addressed.
This is an interesting idea. Town doesn't have much use for the Dark Cult. I think the idea of anybody getting caught using the cult is obvscum is interesting. If scum tried to claim having the cop investigation and say their target must have used the Dark Cult that would be a one-for-one trade.
I've never really seen a townie refer to the rest of the town as "team mates." Scum, however...
One last thing about the Courier Post. @Mod: Do we PM the Courier Post or do we post in thread?
I came across Caex saying that we PM but the ability itself is unclear. I can't imagine it's post in thread, but just to be sure.
This is the first post with content in it, and the first one that spiked on my radar. Color change is mine to highlight this. He's implanting the idea that everyone who uses the Dark Cult is obvscum, because the scum don't want to have to continue spending coins on the Holy Tabernacle to ensure that their kills go through.
I will. I do find this interesting, though. Do you want me to vote Albus to get the lynch done, or do you want me to vote for somebody else just to throw one out there? I'm not sure how to reconcile this statement with your assertion that D1 isn't even close to being long (which I agree with you on).
Albus is scum. He's made too many contradictions and backpeddled too much for him to be anything else.
Not sure about Iso. Basically what's been said about him has been, "He's Iso." Big problem for me is meta arguments mean nothing. I have very little history with anybody so I don't know how somebody plays town or scum. Iso being Iso means he's a null tell for me.
I'm working my way through what Caex has said. I do have some questions for him:
Could you clarify how Shark has been trying hard to look town? Does this mean AE has been doing a bad job of appearing town?
WIFOM. "AE admits to lurking but has to be town because admitting to lurking is scummy and scum never do anything scummy."
His reasoning on Albus was weak. I've said before that as I was reading this game before I replaced in Albus never seemed all that scummy, and he gives like 2 descriptive adjectives as to why Albus is scum.
No, Albus has changed his tune, so to speak, a few times. He first claimed to have two coins then claimed to have just one. He claimed to be roleplaying his gimmick then dropped the act. He's flailed at you (I believe, have to go back to check on that) then decried flailing.
Albus has contradicted himself too much. It's no surprise he's today's lynch. I'd vote for him now but, like pinky, I'd like proggy's take on all of this. It would be nice to have Art's replacement's opinion, but I don't think we need to go full stop until somebody steps in.
It's not saying a lot. I'm still working my way through this weekend's walls of text.
Taking clues from his scumbuddy, waiting to see what she would do. Also, really don't like the fact that he pushed the Albus lynch before Arn was replaced.
So which one do you want? Albus' lynch now or D1 to continue? We both agree that this D1 hasn't been all that long. You can consider my vote on Albus and I'll be happy to make that reality once we have all agreed to end the day.
Pandering, making sure that he doesn't look scummy by quickhammering. He knew Albus was a goner, so he didn't mind having to wait.
Problem is the mod confirmed that somebody got an investigation last night. If Wheat is lying about getting the investigation then he'll be counterclaimed. If the counterclaimer is scum then he or she is our next lynch if Wheat comes up town. It's an incredibly stupid gambit to falseclaim an investigation result in this game because we all know that an investigation was done.
Your point about poggy/Wheat contradiction is interesting, but I don't think it makes What scum because I just can't see scum falseclaiming an investigation.
Defends Wheat, hard. He knew Wheat wasn't lying about the investigation, because Wheat DID win it, so he knew Wheat wouldn't get counterclaimed.
Both of these are big problems with early investigations in this game. We can't trust that whoever won the investigation isn't scum. Wheat's investigation will be suspect until we get an investigation on him from somebody who bids a large amount.
Pandering to the town. Realizes he defended Wheat a little too hard so had to backtrack.
Note that the following assumes Wheat is scum and Shark is town. I'm not assuming this because I believe it to be true, but because it would result in a bad case scenario.
There's ten of us now. Let's work our way through a bad case scenario:
Lynch Shark
Nine alive going into N2.
Assuming mafia grabs the vig shot today that would be two kills N2.
Seven alive D3 with three scum means we're in lylo.
Is it feasible that the mafia already have five coins? It's unlikely they started with five coins total. Otherwise they would most likely grab the vig shot and use it N1.
If they started with four coins total could they get to five tonight? Assuming Wheat is scum, he used at least two coins N1 for the cop investigation (because Shark bid two assuming Shark is town). That puts the scum total at two coins. Emo's death gave the scum all an additional coin so their total is now five coins. If no townie gave coins to scum yesterday then the only way they do not have five coins is if they started with three coins total.
So what does this mean in relation to Wheat and Shark? One of them is lying for sure. Shark claims to have bid two coins earlier than Wheat yet Wheat claims to have gotten the investigation. It can't be true that Shark is telling the truth and Wheat to have the investigation. It could be that Shark is telling the truth and Wheat is either lying about when he sent in his time or even if he won the bid (fellow scum could have won the investigation).
So who do we believe? If we lynch Shark and he turns town then we'll be down to seven on D3 as laid out above. However, we'll know that Wheat is lying so we'll easily lynch him. That puts us at five D4 which would again be lylo (five town, two scum).
Since a one-for-one trade isn't a good move for the mafia all of this hinges on whether or not the mafia can get the vig shot. This situation between Wheat and Shark could be a scum gambit that works only if they have the vig shot. Wheat would be sacrificed in a sense for two kills which is a better deal.
However, I can't really see scum even doing that. Being potentially in lylo tomorrow is certainly attractive to the scum, but there's so much that could go wrong:
Town manage to get vig shot, however unlikely that may be. Without the vig shot Wheat would get vigged if Shark flipped town.
Town manage to block the vig shot. If the mafia have spent all their coins today to get the vig shot they can't guarantee an unblockable shot so they could get blocked on either the vig shot or NK. They would need at least seven coins today to get the vig shot and make both kills unblockable. I find it unlikely they have all those coins. Blocking just one of those kills damages the whole gambit and makes Wheat's sacrifice in vain.
We don't lynch either Wheat of Shark for some reason but rather some other player who flips scum. In that scenario Wheat's investigated and if he's scum that puts the mafia in a really bad situation.
All of this would make this a really, really risky gambit by Wheat as scum. The payoff just wouldn't be enough given how bad it would be for the mafia if it backfired. Given all this I'm now inclined to believe Wheat over Shark.
Ninja edit: I see a rules issue has arisen. If it's the case that an investigation will pass to the next bidder should the investigation target be killed then all of the above analysis is moot. Sigh.
Fearmongering. This whole post reeks of it, and scaring people into not believing Shark.
The target must be a living player. Since Emo wasn't a living player when the trigger resolved then Shark's investigation was nullified. The investigation therefore went to the next bidder in line. That means it is possible that Shark submitted a two coin bib before Wheat yet still lost the investigation.
Of course it could be that one or both of them did not submit an investigation.
Discussing the rules fiasco, no real tells here that I saw.
I wasn't trying to address the choice of the investigation. I thought Caex was painting it as a simple case of one of them lying (however I misunderstood him). I was trying to point out that it most likely wouldn't be Wheat who was lying.
The possibilities are:
Wheat is lying. Unlikely because that would get him lynched since that gambit carries a lot of risk for not enough reward.
Shark is lying. Still possible.
Both are lying. If Shark is lynched and flips scum then Wheat gathers a good bit of townie points for outing Shark. It's feasible this is an attempt to plant scum Wheat as town, pun intended.
Neither are lying. Given how I understand the rules to work this option is still possible.
Basically it's very unlikely that just Wheat is lying and slightly unlikely in my opinion that both of them are lying.
More defense of Wheat here. As I was rereading Nis last week, this is where I knew he was scum. He KNOWS Wheat wasn't lying, and keeps calling him town because a scum wouldn't run that gambit, and that's exactly what happened.
Wasn't meant to be a vote. It was supposed to be a heading for the list.
Let me put it this way. I was ready for D1 to end. I thought it EP's behavior about asking me to vote yet chiding AE about ending D1 odd. He assuaged my fears so I ended the day. Before that, I felt it sporting to give proggy a chance to chime in on things, but then Dagger prodded him. I took the prod as a sign that proggy was not going to chime in. If he hadn't participated for days already what new information could he add about a forgone conclusion?
That's how I approach logic puzzles. Before the rule clarification the situation had to be one or both of you lying. I suspected it was you but I was trying to remain detached because it was certainly possible that Wheat was lying. I wasn't going to assert anything because logically nothing was certain.
Of course then Dagger had to step in and ruin all the fun.
Notice how I said it would be nice, not required. I also said we shouldn't stop the inevitable to wait for the replacement. I saw that zindabad replaced in and anything zindabad could have contributed then is still valid now. In fact, it's even moreso because we have another known alignment.
You're trying to rake me over the coals for doing exactly what I said I do. Could you explain why you felt D1 had to continue?
Wow, that's not what he said earlier, about it being highly unlikely that Wheat was lying. Now it's "certainly possible"? C'mon...
I hate these lists, mainly because mine are usually just two names with everyone sandwiched in between. I'll throw out who I think is the top and bottom at the moment. I do have one other player to throw in just because I'm not sure who gets my bottom spot.
Iso - Bonus entry! His assault on Foxlet appears like a gambit or something. Part of me wants to chalk it up to "Iso being Iso," as players here are fond of doing. Problem is, as I've said before, I have very little history here so I can't really write this off as an Iso meta play. Basically I'm conflicted as to whether I approach this as Iso doing something scummy or "Iso being Iso."
For scummiest I would say zindabad actually. His predecessor Artifice contributed nothing but observations that his computer is having problems. I can sympathize with that and I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. zindabad, however, has had ample time to contribute and there's definitely been a couple thing that have happened today to spur some sort of comment. Despite all this, zindabad has literally not said anything. greymon replaced after him and has contributed something. I know different players review things at a different pace, but zindabad, combined with Artifice's play earlier, appears to be deliberately lurking.
Towniest player would be myself of course. I don't think that will fly with you though.
So next in line would have to be Caex. I know he seems to be the soup de jour for townie play, but really he has been playing in the best interests of the town. Every time I think I've noticed him slip on something, like saying that Arnn asked for time off early, I find he was exactly correct when I review the thread. If he is scum then he deserves an award for looking not only like a townie, but the gorram mayor.
Notice that I bolded, underlined, italicized, color-changed, and drew huge arrows to this part of the post. We've been talking about this, scum don't like to do T/S lists because of how easily they're analyzed later in the game. This is a huge tell in my opinion.
Somebody who can find actual scummy behavior, not imagined behavior in two posts.
So you're willing to lynch anybody?
What good does announcing your Courier Post target do? If we lynch you, the gift does not go through. If we don't lynch you the mafia can NK that player to put more coins into the bank. Basically you'd be providing the mafia with extra coins.
The problem is you haven't really made a credible case off those two posts. When I read them I don't get any of what you see. When I read your explanation for why you see what you see I don't understand it. You're asking us to go with basically your gut feeling. I don't feel like lynching somebody over somebody else's gut feeling.
Shark didn't account for what happens if you or your CP target are killed before D3. Announcing your target is just a good way to let scum know how to get more coins.
More weak arguments against Iso, and protecting of Wheat.
Because I'm not you. I have no history with Fox. What you are taking for granted I lack.
The problem is that in a way town coins aren't as valuable as scum coins. Since the town can't coordinate who gets coins our buying power is reduced. An individual can only hope to have coins come his or her way without an accompanying NK. Trying to save up coins as a townie (or gather coins from others as you have asked) is taking a risk: keep too many without spending any and the mafia can ensure all your coins go into the pot all for the low cost of one coin. It's likely that they'll get that one coin back plus more off this saving townie so it's an easy decision for them.
On the flip side, scum coins should be treated as coming from one big pot. They can keep most of their coins with one player and use the rest to push through NKs or the vig shot. In addition, they don't really have much use for the Dark Cult since they don't have to fear NKs and anybody caught using it is going to be under suspicion. As pointed out, the only time a townie would use it if they were in danger of getting NK (which won't help too much because the kill can be pushed through anyway). Scum won't ever be put in that position.
In short, our coins are worth less because we must act with imperfect information and without coordination. Giving coins to town and scum on a one for one basis helps the mafia more than it helps us.
From just those two posts I can't. That's where I'm being wary. You asked us to trust you based on nothing more than the content of two posts and your gut feeling.
Not sure how you got that. Anybody can use the Holy Tabernacle and from the moment I replaced in I marked that as an ability most likely to be used as scum. Town has just two abilities that can be "pumped" by the HT: vig shot and investigation. Mafia has two: vig shot and NK (and investigation as well but I can't see that happening). Of these which are important to the mafia going through? Vig shot and NK, i.e. things that kill people.
What I meant was that we all get one coin. If we assume that townie coins are worth some fraction of a scum coin then if the scum get 3 coins and the town get 7 (as happened on EP's death) the town comes out way worse if that fraction is less than 1/2. We can't pin down a definite fraction for a townie coin, but it depends on how many of us are left, how many of us are confirmed town, and how well we can coordinate (which I'm not suggesting we do now). Once the number of scum start to decrease our coins become more powerful.
At this point we have to be careful that our coins don't end up in the pool because they're more valuable to scum than us.
Not at all. I can't even begin to fathom how you got that from what I said. Hopefully what I said above makes this clearer. Suffice it to say, you are obviously correct that we are better off killing scum with the most coins. However, there is a twist here: if we lynch scum today plus the NK tonight puts less than 5 coins in the bank the bank won't pay out. Will that help us or the mafia more? I'm not sure at the moment and I need to mull this over.
More fearmongering. He really doesn't want us pooling our coins together apparently.
That's not quite the sale you're trying to make it out to be. I've said a few times already I find your play odd and I'm not sure what to make of it.
Are we talking about the same thing? Dark Cult = doc protection. Holy Tabernacle = unblockable action. I said that if the mafia can deduce who has a large number of coins they can NK that person for sure by giving a coin to the Holy Tabernacle. The coin spent is likely to be at least repaid if they hit a person with a lot of coins. I'm not sure where you got that I was talking about the Dark Cult here. You want me to trust you despite sloppy play?
Have you been reading anything I've written? 1 townie coin =/= 1 scum coin at this time. We are working with more incomplete information and without coordination so our coins cannot be spent as effectively as the mafia can spend theirs.
More talk of our coins not being as valuable as the scums, when in fact ours prove to be very valuable.
I think I misspoke. I find your reputation odd. Early game had lots of explanation that tells against you don't really work because that's just "Iso being Iso." Asking for coins seemed strange because like I pointed out, townies with lots of coins are targets. Your quick attack on Fox was strange. I'm not sure what to make of it, though, since "Iso being Iso," but then again I don't know you so I'm not sure how I should factor things. Basically I'm finding you difficult to read because of your reputation.
I think I see where our disconnect it. I'm saying we shouldn't let scum know who has a lot of coins because the bank pays out coins in a way that favors the mafia (at this time). Even though town might get more coins doesn't make up for the fact that our coins at this time are worth less relative to scum coins. If I'm understanding your correctly you feel the opposite: the amount of coins the town would get offsets the disparate value.
Certainly. As the value of our coins and our ability to coordinate begins to rise the mafia's advantages lessen. I'm not sure yet if our coins will reach parity, and if they do if it would in time to be all that effective.
I just think at the moment it's important to prevent a large number of coins from being paid out by the bank.
Here he flip-flops and says that when we coordinate we put pressure on the Mafia, and it's true.
Scum would most likely just keep quiet if they stole an investigation. It keeps the number of lies and possible contradictions down. The mafia's greatest asset is the town's lack of information. It can be argued that no information is worse than misinformation because misinformation can at least be analyzed when it is discovered as bad (or at least hinted as bad).
I'm fine with Caex's 2.0 plan. This is one of those things I was saying about our buying power vs. the scum's buying power. We can't coordinate as well as they can, but if we can coordinate somehow then our buying power goes up.
More subtle defense of Wheat. Scum are going to keep quiet about the investigation, ergo Wheat=/=Scum.
Is it possible the mafia already have the vig shot? So here's what we know, assuming 3 scum:
If one member has at least 5 coins then he or she can gain vig shot today for use N2.
The mafia had at most 6 coins between them D1.
Mafia have gained 3 coins so far.
Member total now: (X+1) + (Y+1) + (Z+1) = A
To get the vig shot members Y and Z must have given at least 1 coin each to member X D1.
Change above formula to (X + 3) + (Y) + (Z) = A
For X+3 = 5, X = 2.
Did X start with 2 coins? Possibly.
This also assumes no townie sent coins to X D1.
If you believe Wheat is scum and faking the investigation on Arnn then the above is not possible: If Wheat is scum then some scum spent two coins last night. (X+Y+Z) = A - 2. If X and Y both start with 2 coins and Z starts with at least 1 coin then X can't have 5 coins today. Z gives X 1 coin D1 (X = 3). Y spends 2 coins N1 for cop shot (Y = 0). Bank pays out 1 coin to X (X = 4). This also assumes no townie sent coins to X D1.
In short, it can't both be possible that Wheat is scum faking an investigation and the mafia have the vig shot. We have to choose one of these to be true. If the scum do buy the vig shot (which could only be the scum using it at this point) then Wheat must be telling the truth.
A proposition: anybody who gave away coins D1 come forward about it. Name who you gave your coins to. Note I'm not suggesting we do this now. I'm putting it forth as an option since it could catch scum tomorrow.
Maths, fishing, and fearmongering. The math is really confusing (and I'm a math major). He fishes to try and figure out exactly who got coins, and who doesn't have any anymore. BUUT, he doesn't officially suggest this, its kinda like Peter's proposition to eat the kids. "I was just gonna say it jokingly, and then gauge your reaction and possibly go for it." /FamilyGuyreference
We would know the ability was used but we wouldn't know who used it. It's kind of like knowing that somebody farted in the elevator.
Certainly, but it also puts that player under a spotlight. As it is you don't trust Wheat at all even though you said yourself that he should have town points since he claimed to investigate someone. Wheat has put a story out there and if that story starts to be contradicted in the future then he'll wish he hadn't said anything (if he's scum faking an investigation).
Also, because of the kerfuffle between Wheat and Shark earlier the town also has a better grasp of the rules and knowledge of how things will go down when it comes to multiple people bidding for investigation. This is information that has helped the town. If Wheat was scum he would have been better off not admitting to the investigation; let the town chase phantoms for awhile.
Running the numbers and using Occam's Razor points to Wheat telling the truth. If the mafia use the vig shot tonight then Wheat is assuredly town because the mafia just don't have the coins to buy an investigation N1 and the vig shot today. Of course if somebody did give away a coin D1 then things change.
This does make me wonder about something, though. @mod: If the King's Justice is bought one day but not used that night is the King's Justice up "for sale" again? If not, will we know when the King's Justice has been acquired but not used?
Basically I want to know if attempting to acquire the King's Justice is pointless if it has already been acquired but not used.
No. Anybody who gave coins yesterday. If we know who received coins N1 then we'll know if the mafia have enough coins to buy a vig shot today in addition to Wheat lying (assuming he's scum). We can clear Wheat if the vig shot is used tonight and if no townie gave coins to anybody yesterday because it is impossible for the mafia to buy the vig shot if Wheat-as-scum spent 2 coins N1 to buy a cop shot.
As for giving coins to Caex and greymon, we know that they should get 5 coins between them, 4 if we mislynch today. (10 people - 2 (Caex, greymon) - 3 scum) assuming 3 scum. If they get less than 5 coins between them (or 4 if we mislynch) then we'll know some townie didn't give them a coin. Not sure what that says other than either a townie didn't want to go with the plan or didn't have a coin.
I think it's because if Caex is scum he'll have royally screwed the town. Now I don't think that's likely, but the possibility of it does make me shudder a little bit. No guts no glory though.
Why not keep quiet? All we would know is that the investigation was bought. We wouldn't know who bought it. No need to lie by scum and possibly get caught in a contradiction later. Everybody could say, "I didn't bid," or "I bid but didn't win it." Neither of those answers, however, helps us if everybody says it. It's like everybody claiming VT in a mass claim.
My point is, I believe that to scum it would be better to keep quiet about winning an investigation and let the town know that it was simply lost than to try to gin up a false investigation on a townie or "clear" one of your comrades. Iso's chaining investigation idea would clearly derail a false investigation plan or even just simple deductive reasoning as I'm saying with Wheat + vig shot.
He doesn't want Wheat investigated. Derails Iso's chaining idea solely because of this fact.
That's why I asked if anybody had given coins to anybody else D1. If scum does have at least one extra coin it's possible they have the vig shot and can blow Caex's plan out of the water.
Fearmongering, based on speculation about the vig shot.
I think Fox was saying what I've been saying: The mafia need at least one coin to get the vig shot today and that coin could have come from a townie D1. Fox even bolded the last sentence in the quote from my post: "Of course if somebody did give away a coin D1 then things change." When I read Fox's post in question I got the feeling that she was responding to my post in parts instead of in total.
I have to say your last post seems unusually aggressive.
Seems to defend Fox here a bit, this will come up later.
This assuages my fear a good bit. We'll know when somebody acquires the vig shot and we'll most likely know when it has been used. Since it hasn't been purchased yet I feel it's unlikely the mafia have 5 coins to buy it now.
Iso has my vote. Once the plan has been agreed to and we all send our coins I'll vote with haste.
This is very important. Our plan hinges on being able to outbid the mafia and keep them guessing.
We've already gone over this. The only way the mafia can buy the vig shot today and have Wheat-as-scum steal an investigation N1 would be if some townie gave the hoarding scum a coin D1. Now that doesn't mean that since the mafia haven't bought the vig shot yet Wheat is scum. We just know for certain it could be A or B but not A and B unless a townie gave scum a coin D1. We also know if the mafia do buy the vig shot today then Wheat cannot be scum (again, unless a townie gave scum a coin D1).
Notice how I keep bringing up the whole townie-coin-scum-D1 thing? If anybody gave a coin to anybody else D1 speak up about it. It can have important significance on the situation.
MORE defense on Wheat, and trying to get people to speak up about giving away coins. They want to know who has the most coins at this point.
I would like to agree with you, but I'm hesitant. I mean we are potentially putting our eggs into two baskets, both of which could be trashed if scum have just one more coin (assuming worst case scenario for town). Since nobody so far has said, "I gave a coin to such-and-such," I'm inclined to believe nobody gave a coin, but there are a couple people who haven't posted since this discussion began.
They could be sitting on buying it. Wait until the plan is in effect then buy the vig shot. I'm assuming we can't retract Courier Post actions so we could end up with giving away coins to two people who both get taken out tonight.
Hopefully you can see where I'm coming from. I'm acting with an abundance of caution because although I think your plan is good it can go horribly wrong. I'd like to cover all our bases.
Fearmongering about the plan. Not knowing which one of us to kill that night was terrible for the scum, and ended up costing them one of their members, AND in the long run I believe it cost them the game.
It's almost guaranteed that either you are greymon are going to get hit tonight. Either of your death's are most likely going to put at least 2 coins in the bank and that's assuming both of you have 0 coins now.
If the mafia gain the vig shot today then that's 5 coins into the bank upon your deaths (assuming every townie sends coins to one of you). If we start the plan and the mafia buys the vig shot right before day ends then we have no recourse. Both of you will die and all our coins are going to be wasted.
Given that information I can't see the mafia hitting anybody but both you and greymon if they get the vig shot today. Since we can't back out of the plan once it starts I'd like to be sure that the mafia cannot get the vig shot today.
Pretty much signed one of our Death Warrants. Trying to get us to back out of the plan, when Caex and I KNEW that one of us was gonna die.
This is Caex's first formulation of a plan. It specifically mentions buying an investigation. Here is the revised plan. Again, specifically mentions investigations.
Iso brings up a possible flaw with the plan, namely the mafia could NK Caex or greymon and vig the other.
I analyze the feasibility of the mafia already having the vig shot for use tonight. I conclude it's possible. Dagger later confirms that we'll know when the vig shot is purchased and that it cannot be purchased during twilight. Frankly the vig shot is a non-entity at this point because the mafia, if they can buy it now, need to buy it before the hammer vote.
I so want to lynch you Iso. You know the plan was for an investigation, not the cop shot. Why else would you point out that Caex and greymon could both get vigged under this plan?
Same with you Foxlet. In this post you comment on the original incarnation of the plan and even address how Caex's investigation targets don't change if Iso is scum. If you knew then that the plan was to make sure the town gets an investigation tonight why do you think now we're going for the vig shot? Big time FoS: Foxlet.
Here he Foses Foxlet. It makes no sense. It's almost like he's setting up his next mislynch, when earlier it appeared he was at her defense.
You are giving your thoughts on the plan about how tonight's investigation should be used. You even point at that since we just have two investigations left they should not be wasted.
In addition, pinky states that he wouldn't trust an investigation result from anybody on Caex's list, which includes you, or zind if anybody on that list + zind managed to get the investigation tonight. You respond. At this point you know you're on Caex's list which means you read the plan. You also have pieced together pinky's insinuation that if the plan doesn't go through anybody on the plan's list isn't to be trusted. I'm not sure how you didn't understand the plan at that time since you acted like you did.
Buddying with Pinky, which is important later. More slamming of Fox. So far he's slammed Albus, Iso, and Foxlet but continually defended Wheat.
Something important: zindabad is still on V/LA until the 12th. I think we should wait until he's back so he doesn't miss his opportunity to send a coin, if he hasn't already.
That's actually an interesting path to take. I think everybody should note who they sent a coin to. We might be able to catch scum later as people in the two groups are cleared. We know that at most four townies sent coins yesterday (because Iso was mislynched his Courier Post never went through). zindabad didn't send a coin yesterday because AE hammered. Caex and greymon probably didn't send a coin (although correct me if I'm wrong greymon).
I sent a coin to greymon.
Sent to Caex
Wheat
Sent to greymon
Nis
Didn't send a coin
zindabad (no fault)
Fishing. Also claims to have sent a coin to me, even though apparently Caex is the gorram mayor of TownTown.
Well, that means they were unlikely to get the shot D2 (and they didn't). They have 3 extra coins today so they most likely have enough for the vig shot now. Remember, the mafia is +6 coins over their starting number. -2 from Wheat (or some other scum member) means +4. It's highly likely the scum started with at least 1 coin.
It was an accident. I was testing my formatting (I wanted to make sure my blank line between "Sent to Caex" and "Sent to greymon" wasn't swallowed by the software. I simply forgot to move Wheat back under the greymon header before I posted. I corrected it right away.
So instead of voicing these objections yesterday you decide to just buck the plan and totally put the entire town in jeopardy? Your one action could have resulted in neither Caex or greymon getting the investigation. Your action might have resulted in the mafia have enough coins to get the vig shot today. You didn't think any of this through?! Guess what? This is the kind of stuff we discussed yesterday and still agreed to the plan.
So everybody has chimed in on who they sent coins to.
Sent to Caex
Shark
AE
Sent to greymon, received 2 coins
Wheat
Nis
Didn't send a coin
zindabad (through no fault of his own)
pinky (forgot)
Foxlet (sent coin to AE)
Let's break this down:
Caex had at least 1 coin D2 (we all did because the bank paid out). He died with 3 coins. Shark and AE both claim to have sent him a coin. Caex might have had nobody send him coins and had 3 coins D2.
greymon states he received 2 coins and that one of the people claiming to have sent him a coin, Wheat, is scum.
Of those who didn't follow through with the plan, one claims to have been prevented from executing on the plan, one claims to have forgotten, and one bucked the plan entirely. Good job guys.
From all of this we can't deduce anything. I wanted to see who sent coins to who because we know the buckets could only be so big. With the current bucketing we know nothing. Let me put it this way: pinky and Foxlet, if town, royally screwed everyone by not going with the plan. Foxlet went even further and gave an unknown person a coin; it's even worse because AE has been lurking so hard and has made some really bad plays. Why in the world would you give a coin to an unknown who has been scummy Foxlet? You obviously didn't like the odds with the agreed upon plan so you decided to go with a plan that has even less of a chance of working?
Smears Foxlet, which he was already setting this up so it doesn't come as a surprise.
That's pretty damning if it is true. Has there been a case where zindabad has replaced into a game with pinky? Just to be safe, has there been a game where zindabad has replaced in and not talked much.
@zindabad: Can you provide us with a list of all the games where you replaced in?
Starts to set up a mislynch on Zindy, based on what Pinky has to say.
We'd have to do it like N2 to avoid chaos. Two townies get sent coins and both bid for the investigation in hopes to beat the mafia. Unfortunately I'm not sure we'd have enough coins to distribute that way. With five townies that would be at most 3 coins split among two people. Not very good odds.
I say we keep our coins and each bid to see if we can get the investigation.
Against pooling the coins again, doesn't want the cop investigation to be won.
So at least one of AE or Fox is lying. Makes tomorrow interesting.
As for plan:
I'm fine with Shark and greymon making the investigation tonight. My preference for targets matches greymon: pinky or Fox.
Setting up AE and Fox for mislynches, but its also interesting to note he's preparing himself for a possible bus by naming his scumbuddy as one of his targets.
If I understand it correctly the Guild of Coins, what I've been calling the bank, doesn't pay out the coins it takes in. It pays out 1 coin to each living player if the number of coins put into it reaches or exceeds the threshold. Each time it does this the threshold increases by 2 coins.
Since Caex died last night and put in enough coins to meet or exceed the Guild's then threshold each of us should have received 1 coin at the beginning of the day.
Still trying to figure out how many coins the townsfolk have.
Where I was going with this is that even though the Guild took in 5 coins between Caex's and Iso's deaths, it paid out 8 coins at the beginning of today. The amount put in =/= the amount paid out.
Trying to cover up why he wants to know how much each of us have.
What I'm wondering is where greymon's second coin came from last night. He claims to have received 2 coins. I know I sent him one. Wheat claims to have sent him one but Wheat is marked as scum. Did Wheat or some scum actually send greymon a coin last night?
Speculating on where my coins came from. I think he was surprised because...wait for it....I believe Caex sent me a coin! He knew he was gonna be the one to go. I was confirmed town, but HE was the mouthpiece. He was the brain. So he was confused as hell on how I got the investigation.
I never defended Wheat's investigation choice. We went through this already:
And when did I jump to Wheat's defense? If you're talking about the bit at the beginning of D2 I was trying to puzzle out the seemingly impossible situation between Wheat and Shark.
FoS: pinky
Are you kidding me? This is obviously a gambit, and another bussing outlet if he needs to. I've seen another player on this site (Skander) do this before.
I'm here. I PM'd Dagger saying I'd be V/LA until today. Wasn't sure if it was a good idea to post it in thread during night.
I sent a coin to Shark as per the plan.
Nis: Shark
zindabad: Shark
pinky: Shark
AE: Shark
Fox: greymon
Shark died with 4 coins. He had at least 1 coin yesterday since the bank paid out at the beginning of yesterday. There is no way he received 4 coins last night. One of those who claimed to have given Shark a coin is lying.
I know I'm not lying so out of the remaining three the person I find most suspect is AE. He has bucked the plan twice.
Did you get the last investigation greymon?
Conveniently claims to have sent his coin to the dead guy. This by itself doesn't say much, but after everything else...yeah.
That's not how it works. The Courier Post sends coins at the beginning of night before any other actions are processed. Shark received at most 3 coins last night.
Not necessarily. It could be that both you and greymon are scum and some townie is lying about giving Shark a coin. It could be you are scum and actually gave a coin to greymon. It could be greymon is scum and received a coin from you who are town. It could be you're scum who did not give a coin to greymon but the scum who claims to have given a coin to Shark actually game it greymon.
Some of these possibilities are certainly more likely than others. The most likely is that at least one scum is hiding among the four of us who claim to have given coins to Shark. That is one I am willing to assume since it has the most evidence going for it and satisfies Occam's Razor.
What I really want to know is why AE did not go along with the plan again.
Subtly trying to set me up. Implanting the idea that I could be scum, even though zero of my play has indicated this, nor has Arn's before me.
We know for a fact he got a coin D3 from the bank (we all did). We also all got a coin D2 from the bank. What we can't assume was that Shark did not spend that coin N2. Basically we don't know X. We do know that Shark received Y coins N3 and died with 4 coins:
4 = X + Y + 1
Y must be between 0 and 3 because X cannot be less than 0 (we don't have credit here).
Since we have four people claiming to have sent coins to Shark N3 (Y), and we know he received those coins before he died, we know that at least one of those people are lying. That is all we know. Y cannot be 4. It must be between 0 and 3 (and I know it must be between 1 and 3 because I know I'm not lying. You don't).
We can't assume that all of the remaining scum (if we do have more than one remaining scum) are among the group that gave coins to Shark N3. It's a safe assumption that at least one of the people in the Shark group is scum, but then again, as I've already said, the last remaining scum could be you or greymon or both.
Basically I'm accounting for all possibilities. greymon is not confirmed town because there is no reliable investigation result on himself. He is firmly in my townie camp, but when listing possibilities I like to list them all no matter how remote. Part of this game is a logic puzzle and even a remote solution to a puzzle can be the correct one.
You did not send a coin N2. Fox sent a coin to you N2 instead of to Caex or greymon. You both bucked the plan.
I do believe you slipped since there was no plan N1. Vote: Archmage Eternal
More confusing math, and assumptions. Arguments against AE are weak considering they were false.
You are correct. I was misremembering. pinky didn't send a coin because he forgot. You did send a coin. My mistake. Totally on me for not looking back a few pages. Sorry.
I'm not trying to say you're wrong. I'm trying to say we need to account for every possibility. Since we do not know how many coins Shark spent on any night we do not know how many coins he had going into N3. The only facts we know is that he had at least 1 coin at the start of N3 and died with 4 coins. Anything more is speculation.
I will amend what I said earlier about how at least one of the four players in the Shark pool is lying about giving him a coin: it can be possible if Shark spent a coin on the Dark Cult in addition to bidding on the Begger's Sect and the mafia spent a coin on the Holy Tabernacle to override Shark's protection. On N3 Shark could have received 4 coins, spent the rest of his of coins on the DC, bid 4 coins on the investigation, and been killed with 4 coins. I hadn't considered the Dark Cult/Holy Tabernacle before because I honestly haven't given them any thought for a few days now.
My "I'm not lying," was to show that while I'm evaluating the situation from somebody in the Shark pool, you shouldn't. Unless you are scum you have no way to know which of us in the Shark pool, if any, are lying. Despite it being very unlikely, you have the possibility that all of us are lying; for me I know I'm not so I don't have that possibility. That was all my statement was.
I keep pounding on the fact that this situation is a logic puzzle. We need to list every possibility and then discard certain ones. You are trying to state that all possibilities where Shark started N3 with less than 2 coins are not possible. I'm trying to say that is a bad move because the math points to him starting with at least 1 coin but does not suggest starting with at least more than that.
More coin hypotheses, and assumptions, and "Hi guys I'm not lying!"
4 = X + Y
X = number of coins Shark had going into N3. X >= 1
Y = number of coins Shark received. 0 <= Y <= 3
I think my +1 to the equation before was throwing Fox off. That +1 was supposed to be the coin Shark received D3. I've rolled it into X now.
More confusing maths. Seriously I love math, but this made my head hurt. I also don't trust math in mafia very easily because as someone who has taken more math than most people do EVER I know how easy it is to skew the numbers in your favor.
I think I see what you're saying now. We're just approaching this from different ends. I ran the numbers some more and I think my mistake is not emphasizing how many coins Shark started with. While it is safe to say that Shark started N3 >= 1 coin you are correct that it is far more likely he started N3 >= 2 coins.
What did happen to zindabad by the way? It has been five days.
Calling out Zindy, trying to get away from this discussion.
Fox did have misgivings about the plan with the reasoning that she believed we were pooling coins to get the vig shot. We had a little tiff over that. At no point, however, did she state she was not going to follow through with the plan N2 (although AE did hammer Iso before we were all ready for day to end).
Defending of Fox again, after a "Huge FoS". Just odd.
So you'd rather "investigate" without getting input from everybody? What purpose does that serve? If you'd like I can link to the bit between Fox and I so you can get what is written in stone (so to speak) instead of relying on recollections. I'm not trying to speak for Fox. I'm trying to provide salient information to your question. At not point did I claim to be speaking for Fox nor did I direct Fox not to answer.
This post confused me at first, until I realized that Drey replaced in the middle of a Day. They didn't have time to talk at night, so they have to communicate in thread.
It was somewhat successful because we did win the investigation that night. However, because AE ended D2 early zindabad was not able to send in a coin. Fox sent a coin to AE instead of to greymon or Caex. pinky (you) did not send a coin at all. Since 3 people didn't send coins correctly we weren't able to bucket everybody into two camps which would have helped later on.
N3 plan has been significantly better. AE deviated and sent a coin to greymon instead of Shark, but we do that it's very likely that two people in the Shark pool are lying.
We know some scum won that investigation. Most likely it was Wheat given how little coins he had when he died, but the coins for that investigation could have come from any scum member. We know the scum are -2 coins because of that. We also know they are -X coins for winning the investigation last night. How many coins did you bid last night greymon? We might be able to estimate how many coins they have left.
That was never figured out. Both Wheat and I claimed to have sent a coin to greymon N2 and greymon claimed to have received 2 coins. I do think Wheat or some other scum sent a coin to greymon that night because the only other possibility was Caex. Caex died with 5 coins. We had two people claim to send him a coin. That leaves him with 3 which is certainly possible on D2 (start with 2, bank paid out 1). Starting with 4 coins D2 was highly unlikely so I don't think Caex gave greymon a coin N2. The possibilities are that some scum actually gave greymon a coin or one of zindabad or pinky sent a coin to greymon and lied about it.
More implanting subtle hints that I might be lying, fishing about how many coins I have, and trying to say the scum have less (or more) coins than they actually do.
I tend to be vote shy. Not really sure why but I vote mainly when I feel confident that somebody is scum. Occasionally I'll vote to pressure somebody, but that's restricted to D1 and mostly for lurkers or fence-sitters.
As for town/scum games:
Stuff I Like Mafia - most recent town game but I did absolutely awful. First game after a few years and I let a forced no lynch demoralize me.
Joss Whedon Mafia - scum and lynched D1. Couldn't help myself and claimed watcher. I was Giles after all.
Afterlife - town bodyguard. Took a bullet for the cop N2. Not a great game because my house was hit by Snowmageddon soon after the game started.
That was kind of fun reminiscing about old games.
Defends being vote-shy, but I can't understand why. At this point he hammered Albus, and has thrown his vote around at least a little.
AE and Fox: For the reasons DRey laid out. I hate to /barn him but I'm pressed for time for the next few days so I can't really go back and do a proper analysis.
Fox and greymon: I'm still open to the possibility that greymon and Wheat ran a spectacular gambit to plant greymon as firmly town. greymon did claim to have received just one and Fox claims to have sent a coin to greymon prompting to greymon to "clear Fox." Granted it was early in the day. The way Fox fought against me asserting that the two scum must be in the Shark pool sticks out at me.
It's already been said why this post is bad, but I'll reiterate. In either scenario he feels Fox is scum, yet votes for AE. Also makes an excuse as to why he won't be around, and once again tries to implant the idea of me being scum in everyone's head.
Wait. I'm trying to smear you? And DRey is as well? Where?
I'm just keeping a possibility open. It's something that has been nagging me but it's nothing I would consider a smear. I feel more strongly about Fox and AE than Fox and you. The Fox and you pairing is the only other possibility I feel it could be, that's why I listed it.
I'd like it. Can't defend myself if nothing concrete is presented.
Of course we have just five days left so some decision should be made.
I believe you are trying to subtly implicate me. Throw just enough doubt in that maybe people will believe you subconsciously. Also, here it is, I'm interested in your defense.
I've been too lazy to change my vote. I'd be happy with either one of you being lynched today because I think you're both scum. I keep saying I'm open to the possibility of Fox and greymon being scum, but it's a remote possibility.
This is TERRIBLE. Too lazy=scum win. I'm too lazy to do a PBPA, but if it's gonna help us win I'll sit up after working my ass off all day and do it over the course of 3 hours. You don't care which one of them is going to be lynched because you know either way you'll win.
Sum up:
The only things that Nis has done this game have been to defend Wheat religiously, fearmonger, fish, and smear.
My vote stands, and I'm hoping this satisfies anyone who asked me to do this because I worked hard enough on it.
This is what I have so far...stopping at post 450 cause I'm tired as hell Also apologies in advance if the formatting is wonky, I made the notes as I scrolled through in word and did the copy n paste
So...first off, this was going to be a Nis analysis and It really turned into a Nis + Pinky analysis with a touch of random interesting bits here and there.
Starting with WoD. Really…Not much on WoD, he? Had 3 posts prior to placing out...
#68 - WoD - First post was to Vote Iso, then immediately unvote so it wasn’t counted. This would have put him voting directly after poggy. (poggy voted for Iso #67, WoD #68). Didn’t want to look like Iso’s wagon was scum driven!
#70 - Art (Zindy) asked about WoD's false sounding excuse of “there is a second page” for reason of the unvote, which WoD never answered before placing out.
#91 - WoD - His last post prior to placing out (null - no information)
#96 – pinky - talks about not getting on Iso’s wagon which is a fair point if you legitimately think they are town. What caught my attention was this: “Scum tend to buddy up to townies and it makes me ignore Iso”. If, in fact Nis and DRey are a team I’m sure that comment was somewhat directed at WoD and poggy. Pinky doesn't actually ignore Iso. Pinky and poggy go back and forth about it for a few posts.
#104 – Shark – “It jumped to 5 before WoD caught himself and unvoted. Then Caex just unvotes after Albus puts it back to 5…..So either A: scum are jumping onto this wagon trying to push an easy lynch or B: scum are jumping off the wagon to keep it from reaching it.” - We know know that both Caex and Shark are town. It does not appear to be directed at anyone, just a comment of "yes, Iso's wagon was potentially scum driven"
#141 – pinky – “But Poggy meta makes it likely that Poggy's gambit was just a gambit.” Soft defense of poggy, but then several others did as well. Really a null tell IMO.
#145 – poggy – Replies to Albus but pinky had similar point earlier. Could be distancing??? “Being mum about your coin amount because "we keep the scum in the dark on one small detail is the dumbest thing i've heard. Using my plan we can potentially weed out liars and lock scum into things they don't want to be locked into” - I find this interesting because, well we also now know that poggy not only lied about his coin count but he was scum as well. I'll be looking hard, but something about that phrasing reminds me of pinky's N3 plan...:uhh: I might just be imaging things, but I'll be looking for that tomorrow.
#146 – poggy - "if the scum lie about their amounts we catch them when they try to claim having done something. We see who has given who coins and we do the math"…..We see exactly how well that’s worked out haven’t we. Goes hand in hand with the post above, scum advocating lynching the person lying about coins
#164 – Pinky – in response to poggy’s #146…"1) I doubt scum will lie about their coins. It's stupid and pointless…2) if scum lie there is no one to figure out if they are telling the truth this game until they are dead." - You doubt scum would lie about their coins? REALLY? Point 2 I can agree with, #1 we already have proven is false and even *I* know scum have every reason to lie about their coins.
#165 – poggy - responds to pinky, "they can’t claim to have enough to buy certain things" Obvious "non-answer" IMO. Obvious because, what good is it really going to do the town when you are trusting the scum to tell you the truth? NADA.
#203 – Nis replaces WoD
#205 – Nis – Responds to a post by pinky about using Dark cult. “Town doesn't have much use for the Dark Cult. I think the idea of anybody getting caught using the cult is obvscum is interesting.”….Which is interesting, considering DRey recommended everyone using Dark cult recently. More to the point, I personally find this interesting, because of the exchange itself. We are, again, assuming Nis + pinky/DRey. If that is indeed the case, this would feel like daytime scum talking-coaching to me.
#206 – Nis – Call me impressed…He reviewed the *entire* 200ish posts in about 1 hour???? How is that possible (and make anything like accurate reads unless you know who is town ahead of time)….moving on.
#273 – EP – Starts his needling on Nis to vote. Now remember, Nis hasn’t been in the game that long. Nis has also recently said that he doesn’t vote much unless he has a “strong” scum read, etc… so keep this in mind as we move forward.
#285 – pinky – Responds to Iso’s #270 being suspicious of Art (Zindy) or pinky. Leans towards Art (Doh)…and bases it on a lot of meta arguments. One of the first times I notice a real suspicion of poggy because he’s being “quite”.
#299 – pinky – just prior to Albus lynch - requests Nis’s reads, would like to wait for Zindy (Art’s replacement) and requests poggy’s prod
#304 – Nis – responds to EP about voting. Very sure Albus is scum, unsure about Iso but says meta arguments are null for him….Hmmm. Iso calls him out on it in #305 “not a fan of this post in general - I feel like...like it's not saying anything”
#306 – Nis – Hmm…so he can go through 200 posts in an hour but takes just as long to go through 100?
#310 – Zindy places in
#311 – Nis – the “infamous” asking to vote post…IMO, he’s basically asking “do you want me to vote Albus”…well, don’t blame me for the consequences. For someone who claims their vote stance is normal (ie he normally doesn’t vote much), why so easy a pushover?
#314 – pinky – The 180 turnabout from #299. Decides to NOT wait for Zindy to make any analysis, repeats Albus is scum along with potentially poggy, Art, and either Shark or Nis. Her premise is that Shark and Nis are null but would lean more on Shark???
#315 – Nis – the actual Vote – still looks bad.
#323 – pinky – defends her 180 vote by saying “welp, Zindy wasn’t going to do anything anyway”. Acts defensive and deflects back to Shark who was the one asking the question
#325 – pinky – said she was going to take a good look at Nis for the hammer….we’ll see if that ever materializes
#326 – Albus – Interesting, doesn’t think pinky is town with no real firm reason…which is interesting because in #281 his final player analysis felt she was town-ish or at least not scum. I believe he said "sheep and fitting in". I just found this interesting.
#328 – Wheaties places in
#337 – Wheaties – the T/S list and first real post…gonna breeze over the choice of Arn(grey) who just replaced out as we know that the entire thing seems like a reason to waste an investigation. I still find it intriguing (as did everyone else) the comment about “I'm thinking Nis will be a town-read as the day goes on, and Zindabad could go either way”. We know now that Wheat is scum, and he glossed this comment over. The comment everyone latched onto is “Nis will be a town read”…Wheat…knows…who…the…town…are! Hmmm. What caught my attention in this, that I wouldn’t have noticed otherwise was the “Zindy could go either way”. After looking at Wheat’s other T/S lists (that I already posted) it’s like he was saying, “just in case the **** hits the fan, look I said it could be Zindabad”…which lines up with his previous T/S lists. Weak, but it makes me wonder.
#340 – Nis – (gee look at #145)…He’s very ho-hum on the blatant lie from Wheat (about coin claim)
#357 – Nis – Interesting…Assumes Wheat is scum and Shark is town but wants to LYNCH SHARK??? Edits at the end (because of the rule shenanigans between Shark/Wheat) that makes him believe Wheat over Shark. Read it again...He is assuming Wheat is scum but wants to lynch Shark???? That's how I read that anyway.
#362 – pinky – makes a come back! Out of all the posts, chooses Wheat’s T/S list to respond to…Hmmm. Comments seem random, IMO. Soft defense of MirrorE for lurking based on meta but doesn’t mention AE for the same? Nis should be scummy for his vote, but hers was perfectly acceptable? I also took a look. Curiouser and curiouser… I compared pinky vs MirrorE’s games and even looked up MirrorE’s posts (to make sure he just hadn’t neglected to update his blog). I don't see any shared games between MirrorE and pinky. I see three scenarios here: 1-MirrorE is a gimmick and pinky knew who it is and played a game with the “real” owner who has a “lurk” history…2-pinky played with MirrorE on MafiaScum…pinky knows MirrorE is town (thus the soft defense) because she is scum.
#363 – pinky – comments on the Shark/Wheat investigation shenanigans. Only mentioning it mostly for clarity. She says “this says nothing about a living player” when it clearly says in the Trigger “…with a living players name”. Null right now since I very obviously screwed up on the calling of the guards for a very similar reason (not reading)….#364, catches the part about “living players”.
#367 – Wheat – Moves Zindy to “scum” position after taking pinky’s word about MirrorE’s lurk status as fact. Also blows off Nis’s hammer of Albus, because the rest of his posts make sense. This is why I went and looked up MirrorE and pinky's history. Why would Wheat just take pinky's word for it?
#370 – pinky – Wheat’s original post mentioned the vote/unvote. Pinky originally just addressed the unvote and is only now addressing the vote …which is to kinda deflect attention back to Nis for his bad, bad vote. Also “Why would a scum do this…”? I find that about as amusing as poggy’s “early comment about mass claiming to lynch liars on coin claims”
#374 – pinky – Yes Nis hammered Albus (badly). Pinky is laying *all* the blame on Nis for not waiting for the replacements. I find this interesting because if pinky was so concerned about waiting for replacement feedback she wouldn’t have re-voted. That’s how I see it anyway. If you are town, you don’t expect the rest of the town + scum to do the right thing. See comments above.
#383 – grey places in
#384 – pinky(DRey) – WIFOM argument again…I’m town because if I was scum I wouldn’t do this.
#412 – pinky – jumps on Iso’s comment about Wheat only having 1 coin. At this point there is still some confusion (on occasion) about set up…however it should be clear that Wheat likely only had 1 coin. He had just bid 2 (which at the time was the max) and the GoC’s had just paid out, leaving him 1.
#438 – Caex – just makes a good point @ pinky (and Iso) if they truly think Wheat is scum why waste the investigation on him? As in...why vote Iso if you truly believed Wheat was scum? (he goes to vote Iso)
#445 – Nis – replies to a post by shark, commenting that #357 wasn’t meant to be a vote, but a heading (ie he wanted to lynch shark as mentioned above). Also says he was ready to end D1 already??? Really?
Bah, sorry for the double post, I was going to add a little comment at the bottom and hit post instead. It will have to wait until I can think again.
I will also look at grey's post tomorrow when I can actually concentrate since I see he posted his analysis.
And it's probably a late night fantasy...but something I thought of was this.
There were 12 peeps in the game...and everyone started with 0-1-2 coins. I'm betting my original hypothesis of the scum team having one of each is more likely correct. Think about it...12 players 3 "groups" of coins. 4 players get 0 coins, 4 players get 1 coin and 4 players get 2 coins. Yes, they start out with technically less but have a the better hand of coordination.
Again, "too lazy" and "happy with [this other scummy person] being lynched, but still voting you" are classic scum language. You say the possibility of AE being scum is greater than the possibility of greymon being scum, which makes sense. Let's even say 85% scum for AE and 15% for greymon. Those are arbitrary numbers.
Scumpair 1 (85% likely): AE, Fox
Scumpair 2 (15% likely): greymon, Fox
Probability that AE is scum: 85%
Probability that greymon is scum: 15%
Probability that Fox is scum: 100%
Check. I'm with you. My numbers are slightly different, though.
I'm under some deadlines at work so my time for this game has dramatically fallen. I can't keep up right now to all the back and forth. I do feel AE and Fox are scum so I'm content with either being lynched today. If we adjust your numbers above it would be something like AE, Fox is 99.5% and greymon, Fox is 0.5%. I listed the possibility of a greymon, Fox team because again, I like to list all possibilities. No stone unturned.
This is the first post with content in it, and the first one that spiked on my radar. Color change is mine to highlight this. He's implanting the idea that everyone who uses the Dark Cult is obvscum, because the scum don't want to have to continue spending coins on the Holy Tabernacle to ensure that their kills go through.
pinky came up with the idea. I was merely putting forth my opinion on it. It was an astute observation by pinky that I felt needed to be pointed out.
His reasoning on Albus was weak. I've said before that as I was reading this game before I replaced in Albus never seemed all that scummy, and he gives like 2 descriptive adjectives as to why Albus is scum.
Three confirmed townies thought Albus was scum. That's why they voted for him and that's why I did as well. Albus kept changing his story. He changed his claimed coin amount for goodness' sake. When somebody is under as much pressure as he was changing his story is a bad move. It was D1 with a fair amount of content. Somebody did some things that were scummy and got lynched for it.
Defends Wheat, hard. He knew Wheat wasn't lying about the investigation, because Wheat DID win it, so he knew Wheat wouldn't get counterclaimed.
You are absolutely right. Let's analyze everything that happened while we were in the dark about how the rules concerning investigations work. Behavior is going to be absolutely consistent with a town or scum mindset when everybody is playing without knowing how the game works. [/sarcasm]
And what I said still seems valid to me. We knew somebody got the investigation; Dagger said exactly that.
Pandering to the town. Realizes he defended Wheat a little too hard so had to backtrack.
You know what I was doing? Misunderstanding Caex's point. Also I was agreeing with him on the two possibilities. Investigation results in this game continue to be suspect.
Fearmongering. This whole post reeks of it, and scaring people into not believing Shark.
I'll say it again. At this point analysis of the situation is messy. I was going off the assumption that the situation between Shark and Wheat excluded the possibility that both of them were telling the truth. Nobody at the time was aware that the rules allowed such a possibility.
Dagger's clarifying post came one minute after what you call fearmongering. I had no idea when I wrote that post that we were all operating under a false assumption. My next post minutes after Dagger's basically throws all my analysis away.
More defense of Wheat here. As I was rereading Nis last week, this is where I knew he was scum. He KNOWS Wheat wasn't lying, and keeps calling him town because a scum wouldn't run that gambit, and that's exactly what happened.
Sigh. Notice a theme among my posts? I list all possibilities I see. Yes, I personally did not think scum would run a false investigation gambit. My mistake. I laid out my reasoning for it, though: I pointed out holes in the plan including one that would occur if Wheat was investigated as scum (the whole chaining investigations that Iso put forth).
Wow, that's not what he said earlier, about it being highly unlikely that Wheat was lying. Now it's "certainly possible"? C'mon...
True and false are absolutes. In between, though, there is a range of uncertainty. "Highly unlikely" means close to false. "Certainly possible" could mean close to truth, or it could mean "falls anywhere within the uncertainty spectrum." The second meaning was what I meant.
Notice that I bolded, underlined, italicized, color-changed, and drew huge arrows to this part of the post. We've been talking about this, scum don't like to do T/S lists because of how easily they're analyzed later in the game. This is a huge tell in my opinion.
It's just how I roll. Take a look at my past games and you'll find the same thing. I don't really place people on any sort of scale between town and scum. At some point I'll put you into a camp, but until then you're all just in one bit group called "Undecided."
Tell me, what part of that was untrue? If you don't spend your coins or send them to somebody else the mafia can guarantee your kill for just one coin. Look, you may not like the truth, but if the rules of the game dictate that one particularly strategy can be really bad then it needs to be pointed out as such.
More fearmongering. He really doesn't want us pooling our coins together apparently.
s/pool/bank/
I was talking about how coins that the bank pays out are worth a different amount comparatively between scum and town. At no point am I addressing pooling coins on one or more players in this post. I do think the context of the conversation would make that apparent.
More talk of our coins not being as valuable as the scums, when in fact ours prove to be very valuable.
If you'd like to continue this discussion I'll be glad to do so after the game is done. The economics of this game heavily favor the scum in the early part. The town eventually comes to parity, and at the end to supremacy, concerning coin worth, but the beginning is skewed toward scum having more buying power.
Here he flip-flops and says that when we coordinate we put pressure on the Mafia, and it's true.
Flip flop how? At that time our coins were worth a small fraction of the mafia's and our ability to coordinate was not great (we had few indications of who is scum and who is town). What part of what I said was untrue? I did state before that our coins will increase in relative value.
More subtle defense of Wheat. Scum are going to keep quiet about the investigation, ergo Wheat=/=Scum.
Refer back to uncertainty spectrum. Notice how I keep couching my statements with words like "most likely", "unlikely", etc.? It's because I understand that a good part of this game will take place in the uncertainty spectrum. I never said it was impossible that Wheat was scum running a gambit; I said it was unlikely. I was wrong, but I never said Wheat was absolutely town.
Maths, fishing, and fearmongering. The math is really confusing (and I'm a math major). He fishes to try and figure out exactly who got coins, and who doesn't have any anymore. BUUT, he doesn't officially suggest this, its kinda like Peter's proposition to eat the kids. "I was just gonna say it jokingly, and then gauge your reaction and possibly go for it." /FamilyGuyreference
Who know why I did this post? Because the plan hinged on the mafia not having the vig shot. If we pooled our coins on two players and both were NK'd that night we'd have lost then and there. I was making my best attempt at determining whether or not the vig shot was in play. My suggestion was because, as my analysis shows, everything hinged on no townie giving away a coin D1. That's why I asked. If anybody had given away a coin D1 then everything would change. I'm a computer science major and I like to work with all the variables being known.
Fearmongering, based on speculation about the vig shot.
Absolutely. If the mafia had the vig shot that night we wouldn't even be playing now. Somebody had to make everybody aware that the plan did have a not insignificant possibility of backfiring.
MORE defense on Wheat, and trying to get people to speak up about giving away coins. They want to know who has the most coins at this point.
Fearmongering about the plan. Not knowing which one of us to kill that night was terrible for the scum, and ended up costing them one of their members, AND in the long run I believe it cost them the game.
Pretty much signed one of our Death Warrants. Trying to get us to back out of the plan, when Caex and I KNEW that one of us was gonna die.
All three of these I'll address at once. This all goes back to my reluctance to go forward with the plan if there is a good chance that the mafia can buy the vig shot. You even ask the mod a question about if we'll know the vig shot has been purchased. You can't act like you're appalled that I dare question going forth with the plan when at the same time you were cautious yourself.
Buddying with Pinky, which is important later. More slamming of Fox. So far he's slammed Albus, Iso, and Foxlet but continually defended Wheat.
I'm not buddying pinky. I'm providing more evidence that Fox was aware of the plan at that point and couldn't then say she wasn't aware what the plan was.
Fishing. Also claims to have sent a coin to me, even though apparently Caex is the gorram mayor of TownTown.
You know what theme I sensing in the pbpa? That you apparently had some issues with how was I playing but didn't bother to talk about them until now? It's like you started this pbpa with the assumption that I'm scum and then have twisted everything to make it appear as though I am scum. That's not how it is supposed to work. This post in particular should have absolutely no scum vibes.
I'm suggesting we bucket everybody to find liars later. If that scummy behavior that townie tactics must consist of pulling names out of a hat.
310: Dagger announces I have replaced in for Art. 314: You put Albus at L-1 with seemingly no provocation. 315: Nis hammers Albus. 316: Shark asks why you felt the need to set up a quickhammer with me unable to contribute to the game so far. 323: You claim that I wasn't going to say anything anyway since when I replaced in "last time", I didn't talk much.
OK, now let's drop everything and talk about that post for a moment. I have never replaced in to a game featuring you until this one. The above statement is a total lie. Somehow, I missed this the first time around, but you were absolutely lying here.
That's pretty damning if it is true. Has there been a case where zindabad has replaced into a game with pinky? Just to be safe, has there been a game where zindabad has replaced in and not talked much.
@zindabad: Can you provide us with a list of all the games where you replaced in?
How in the world do you get that I'm trying to setup a mislynch of zindabad here? I'm asking zindabad for more information to confirm whether or not what he said was true. That's called investigation!
At this point I'm tired of wasting my time to further respond to your pbpa. You definitely composed this thing with the intention to show I'm scum instead of doing it to determine I'm scum. You are ignoring context, history, and common sense. You are construing things in a way to "show" that I'm scum instead of analyzing the posts. This is a lazy pbpa that can't even be called analysis.
You started with the assumption that every mention of Wheat was an ironclad defense instead of a mistake born of a rules misunderstanding and an assumption against an unlikely possibility. You are condemning me for playing cautiously and trying to work out possibilities. None of that makes sense.
@Grey I don't think Nis is scum, but he's certainly the weakest link here, I acknowledge the the possibility of him being scum, but for that to happen Fox would need to be town and I think that's unlikely at this point. The truth is that I "cleared" him just because AE is 100% scum and Fox is very likely to be scum, I'm fine lynching him tomorrow if we have the backup of shooting Fox just in case I'm right and Nis is town.
I've reduce the possibilities of scumteam for:
a)AE and Fox (most likely)
b)AE and Nis (much less likely)
Anyway we know AE is scum. Btw I have another thing I noticed thing that can implicate AE, it's Caex coins by time of death. We know for a fact Caex started with less than 2 coins, because he has not participated of D2 fight about the investigation (remember both WG and Shark bidded 2 coins and disputed the investigation, if Caex had 2 coins he would have participated in this issue too).
So he must have gained at least another 1 or 2 coins before dying. AE claims he gave him 1 coin therefore if two or more people claim to have given coins to him, AE is a proven liar (again :p) or Caex would have died with more than 3 coins. Unfortunately PB didn't give any coin to Caex, does any of you have given Caex coins? including the night he died, because coins are given before NK.
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@Zinda The reason you can't be scum with AE (and Fox too) is because of this post:
Absolutely nobody should be investigating either pinky or myself tonight when we have an actual dichotomy between Fox and AE. One of them is lying. Therefore, one of them is scum. It is still possible, although I doubt it strongly, that both pinky and YT are town. Therefore, the only sensible play is to catch a scum for sure by copping either Fox or AE. A town result means the other is scum.
This post happened when we were still trying to clear the coin situation between Fox and AE. When the dichotomy between the two appeared people were still directing the cop to another guys, when the 100% correct choice was to inspect Fox or AE because of the things you said. Therefore if you was scum with them opening town eyes would be totally wrong, because you would ensure that, no matter what happened on the night, one of your buddies would be lynched the next day, this play would make no sense from a scum POV and you would never make the mistake of ensuring a scum lynch when you could have simply stayed silent about the situation and let town cop elsewhere. Therefore the logical conclusion is that you cannot be scum with either AE or Fox, because of this you are now 90% cleared.
I've noticed a couple interesting things...will try to post what I have at least to the point I have it tonight.
I thought you would say something pro-town but looks like I was wrong after reading your last post. Anyway, let me reveal something important for town.
Since DRey has not hammered Nis, if he's scum he can only be scum with Nis or else he would have hammered and won already.
I think we are pretty near confirming my towniness, and that's why Fox unvoted, she noticed it and hoped no one notice, but it's too late. It's now a fact that if I'm scum, Fox and AE are town. And since I've showed again and again it's pretty much certain AE is scum, and very likely Fox is too.
KNOWN FACTS
DRey can only be scum with Nis.
If AE is scum the chances are that Fox is likely scum because she gave him a coin for no reason.
Zinda cannot be scum with either AE and Fox.
Grey is town.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
@Dagger Hipotetical situation: if there's only one scum and he has activated the vig guild can him NK and vig on the same night?
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
I also think is really strange to keep posting elsewhere while you ignore the game that's probably in lylo...
*probably* in lylo? PROBABLY in lylo, but how could you not be aware that we are...in fact...in lylo?
(I do however agree that AE needs to pay more attention to this game and or post more)
When I said that I believed you to be wrong about Foxlet too, considering just this Day I felt she was town because she was actually trying to do something while most of the guys were busy doing nothing. Now that I believe Fox to be scum you were only wrong about: Iso and PB/me. Not much but certainly far from your game on Ender where I don't remember you being wrong about anything.
So only everyone else has the ability to be wrong except me...got it. For the record, I am still trying to do something weather you like it or not. Ignoring it all doesn't make it go away it just makes you look bad.
It's not BS, I've done this successfully before so I tend trying to repeat past successes. I have already explained why I didn't try to analyse the quotes but that's a idea I dig.
I think the general idea is, at least in my opinion was "everyone hey look at these posts" and then sitting back and letting the shenanigans proceed as the town point fingers and cast suspicion on each other. By not wanting to *express* your opinion it's as if you don't want to be put in the spotlight to be challenged on it. Which is what any sort of what any analysis does...it puts you in the spotlight. Right or wrong. You will have to defend it.
It totally can be, because town can lie too so even though Shark said he was ready and was committed to the plan he could have not followed it.
Again, you have only proven that he was following the plan. You never proved, and I doubt never will that he said "I am sending a coin to grey". As I mentioned previously, I thought it was a stupid idea to have someone who was supposed to SAVE coins to then SEND them. The whole thought of Shark sending a coin after I mentioned that wasn't really brought up again.
In any case there's no way for townFox to ever give a coin to one of her scumreads.
But I'm pushing for AE lynch today not yours, why do you say there will be no tomorrow since you have no way to know AE's alignment, haven't you recently said you believe AE is scum?
One of the things I noticed when reading last night (and it's in my analysis I believe) was Wheaties mentioning that the scum saying that the scum team basically have every reason to get the investigations AND vig shot. Which is a depressing thought. Because no, I don't know AE's alignment...But everyone (except you apparently) know we are in lylo. If the scum DO in fact have Vig shot now...we have a good chance of losing even if we lynch correctly today. So yeah, it's a rather depressing thought.
I think we are pretty near confirming my towniness, and that's why Fox unvoted, she noticed it and hoped no one notice, but it's too late. It's now a fact that if I'm scum, Fox and AE are town. And since I've showed again and again it's pretty much certain AE is scum, and very likely Fox is too.
Psh, how could I hope no one noticed. It's not like you can edit posts. It's going to be there FOREVER (or at least as long as the forums survive). So...did you REALLY just claim scum?
Anyway we know AE is scum. Btw I have another thing I noticed thing that can implicate AE, it's Caex coins by time of death. We know for a fact Caex started with less than 2 coins, because he has not participated of D2 fight about the investigation (remember both WG and Shark bidded 2 coins and disputed the investigation, if Caex had 2 coins he would have participated in this issue too).
So he must have gained at least another 1 or 2 coins before dying. AE claims he gave him 1 coin therefore if two or more people claim to have given coins to him, AE is a proven liar (again :p) or Caex would have died with more than 3 coins. Unfortunately PB didn't give any coin to Caex, does any of you have given Caex coins? including the night he died, because coins are given before NK.
OMG really??? You start off pushing this as fact and end up questioning it? Horrible. Simply horrible. You are flailing so hard now to get this lynch that you just cost you two the game.
And since I've showed again and again it's pretty much certain AE is scum, and very likely Fox is too.
You've done absolutly nothing of the sort but show your true colors.
Wow...respect plummeted. That's like everyone in Vamp going Yeah there are totz 3 SK, a Vig AND A CULT...it's totally balanced!
Sorry, 2 scum team in a set up like this...not buying it, deflect more!
Feel free to correct me on this DRey. I took it as him asking the mod if there is one scum left after today, which means we lynch scum today, can that scum both vig and NK someone. It seemed like a valid question to me.
So it looks like we've got camps well formed.
DRey and I believe Fox and AE are scum.
Fox, AE, and greymon believe DRey and I are scum.
zindabad thinks Fox is scum.
This is beginning to look like a Mexican standoff.
Feel free to correct me on this DRey. I took it as him asking the mod if there is one scum left after today, which means we lynch scum today, can that scum both vig and NK someone. It seemed like a valid question to me.
I'm pretty sure that question was already answered previously as well...somewhere in the thread. It was also hinted at by Wheat when he placed in. I remember I mentioned it in my read through....though I just looked aaaand apparently not <sigh> grrrrr MSWord.
I'm at work so don't have my original....Basically, Wheat had mentioned in a post that the scum had every reason to get both the cop & vig shot. We know now that the scum *HAVE* gotten 2 of the investigations already. What I had said was that it was something of a depressing thought that if we mislynch town...we lose right then and there. If we lynch scum YAY!!! we don't auto lose and get an extra day to plan, but the scum will get the NK and Vig if they already have it. While not making the town auto lose, it puts us right back at lylo which is yes...a rather depressing thought.
(I do however agree that AE needs to pay more attention to this game and or post more)
AE has more experience than you I know he's not bad scum at since I've been scum with him myself, so I think you should stop trying to coach him :p. It's particular amusing you said like 2 days ago you were fine with a lynch on him but since Grey started pushing Nis and me you have no doubt AE is town. Exactly what happened with my and Zinda's read you had.
So only everyone else has the ability to be wrong except me...got it. For the record, I am still trying to do something weather you like it or not. Ignoring it all doesn't make it go away it just makes you look bad.
Of course everyone has the ability to be wrong but I lacked knowledge back there, I haven't previosly read the game and had just replaced in. You have been playing this since D1.
Again, you have only proven that he was following the plan. You never proved, and I doubt never will that he said "I am sending a coin to grey". As I mentioned previously, I thought it was a stupid idea to have someone who was supposed to SAVE coins to then SEND them. The whole thought of Shark sending a coin after I mentioned that wasn't really brought up again.
God, discussing with scum is tiring... Let's remember yesterDay plan.
a)Pinky creates a plan (she was a town read of Shark)
b)Shark agrees with the plan.
c)You try to deflate the plan (you were a scum read of Shark).
d)Pinky explains and try to convince you why the plan was good.
e)You don't argue anymore.
f)Shark confirms he's ready twice.
And you believe Shark still didn't follow the plan despite saying he would and never disagreeing with it? Like I said it's possible, but likely? Hell no.
So.. your response is this? AE has been constantly in your scum pile, yet you never voted him, pressured him, questioned him AND gave him a coin and you LAUGH?
One of the things I noticed when reading last night (and it's in my analysis I believe) was Wheaties mentioning that the scum saying that the scum team basically have every reason to get the investigations AND vig shot. Which is a depressing thought. Because no, I don't know AE's alignment...But everyone (except you apparently) know we are in lylo. If the scum DO in fact have Vig shot now...we have a good chance of losing even if we lynch correctly today. So yeah, it's a rather depressing thought.
Pointless fearmongering, if this game was already over scum would have claimed scum be lynched and won it already, we know scum don't have the vig because Dagger would have told us.
Wow...respect plummeted. That's like everyone in Vamp going Yeah there are totz 3 SK, a Vig AND A CULT...it's totally balanced!
Sorry, 2 scum team in a set up like this...not buying it, deflect more!
Are you seriously thinking I believe there's just one scum? After pushing both you and AE? Get real, you understand nothing.
Psh, how could I hope no one noticed. It's not like you can edit posts. It's going to be there FOREVER (or at least as long as the forums survive). So...did you REALLY just claim scum?
I don't know if your reading skills are this lacking or you are just feigning stupidity. Anyway, learn to read.
@AE Cool man, I create 3 or 4 cases against you and you cherrypick the weakest of them to respond and hope no one notices? Not working sorry.
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You guys forgot masscoin claim, we need to guarantee the vig tomorrow at all costs. Considering we have just 4 townies we can only send 3 to one guy so he must have at least 2 already to guarantee the vig, so far me and Grey are eliminated from the possibility.
DRey: 1 coin
Grey: 1 coin
Nis: ?
Zinda: ?
Nis and Zinda please say your coins.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
I started with 1 coin, got a coin D2 upon E_P's death, sent a coin to greymon N2, got a coin D3 upon Caex's death, sent a coin to Shark N3,
1 + 1 - 1 + 1 -1 = 1
@DRey - what you just said does not in fact make sense. You should remember that I REPLACED in for MirrorE since I complained that a lot of your early (weak) case was based on his lurkyness. So, I have not been here since day 1.
The laugh in response to giving AE coin, as I said, I do some crazy ****.
And the Vig shot hasn't actually been USED so I don't think Dagger would be posting it as yet (guessing).
Also DRey, I'm town and perfectly capable of counting in regards to lylo AND have been playing shorter amount of time. There are even a few posts about it, so again...why didn't YOU know?
Also apologies for not working on more analysis. It was actually busy at work yesterday and I'm likely getting sick...joy. I'll do what I can though.
I have 1 coin. I started with 0, got 1 on D2, did not send on D2, got another D3, sent 1 on D3, and here I am with 1.
My availability will be low from now until Monday, so I'm going to vote now. Fox is my #1 pick for scum, but with 2 days left I'm not seeing it happening. Nis's behavior today has been scummy enough, as I mentioned in my last couple of posts, to allow me to settle for this, although I'm not 100% sold.
Vote Nis. Sorry if we lose because of this. Hope to see you tomorrow.
If you are talking about Shark and his low coin count before dying, I find that pretty much hard to believe. Call me a skeptic but dying with *4* coins is not by any stretch of the imagination a LOW coin count.
Funny how you and Nis keep following the same hypothesis. I have mine here. The post you quoted for shark said he was down with the plan not that he was sending a coin, show me...in quotes where he said "Im sending a coin to grey". That...exactly. Because I specifically asked about shark sending a coin because, when pinky first mentioned the plan and had shark with a ??? beside grey's name I asked why on earth someone would be giving away a coin when you are supposed to be collecting them! I thought it was crap.
Yes, I realize at this point is who can prove a better argument because Me saying I'm town doesn't do crap, and you saying you are town doesn't do crap to prove it either
Except it isn't. You (and possibly Nis) are assuming he actually gave grey a coin. I know, for a fact that I did. Yes, I f'ed up giving a coin to AE. I stated my reason why. I thought the N2 plan was crap. I could have kept my mouth shut because, if you had noticed AE's response to my claim of giving him the coin was anything but "practiced". Do you REALLY think if that was a scum gambit that we had talked over in scum chat AE would have acted like a startled rabbit?
And...yer wrong, so horribly wrong.
I still stand by my theory that both the scum are in the group that "gave" shark coins. As far as I'm aware, Shark never said..."I am sending my coin to grey", he only said I'm down with the plan, and was confirming he was ready to go. Its not hard to push a wagon on the 2 people most people find the most scummy...I mean really, it was all out there for the whole freaking world to see. Yeah, most of the town thought AE and me were the scummiest Woohoo.
Hahahaha, yer funny
My coinage...placed in with 1 coin, received a coin from GoC. (which is why I was frustrated D2 because I wouldn't be able to do jack diddly ANYWAY because at that point 3 coins would be the max, which I hinted at). Sent a coin to AE....GoC payed again so back at 2 coins. Sent a coin to grey. That's it. If I didn't miss any pay outs, I should just have 1 coin. (trying to keep track of GoC pay outs is an PIA)
For sending my coin to AE, sometimes my reason is "crap and illogical" by mafia game standards Read Vamp for an excellent example
So you use Trisk for my voting record which I'd like to point out was my second ever game played. Vampire, which is my most recently finished game, I think I voted twice, wait 3 times because I self hammered? (and no I didn't actually go look it up I'm going by memory) Why not use that one instead? Was it just to paint me in the most scummy light possible and "prove" your point? Why? I'd also like to point out, that I've been told my voting habits (even 6 votes in a whole game) are not "normal" by mafia standards so I smell bullpoo in the air.
As for grey, the reason I mention him is *because* Wheat who is a confirmed scum did the investigation. No one else at the time thought it was a big deal but now it's a big deal. WTF? Zindy still hasn't answered my questions, but my points about grey being confirmed town was that some of the townfolk like Shark seemed to just take the investigation results at face value regardless of who did the investigation. As Zindy pointed out scum will "sacrifice" themselves just like town will (except for town points). So the idea COULD be that it was a scum ploy. Especially given as I said, in this set up there might be no way possible for grey to ever "confirm" himself by investigating a scum target. Its why I wanted, and still want those questions answered.
You are spouting the same BS as Zindy. I've said the reason why I'm pretty sure Shark was targeted instead of grey. Coins. And really, as I said above, the whole Shark was going to investigate AE or Me so had to be silenced is just silly. As I said before, most of the town thought it was me or AE, so I was already expecting a possible investigation result. And I was all...COME AT ME BRO!
So...you *also* want the town to ignore the vig shot and turtle down in fear while the scum drive the town to mislynch each other. I can't say that AE is town, or scum...he certainly has acted pretty scummy. I do, however know for a fact that given this new idea of yours that the scum certainly won't NEED the vig shot. Ya'll can call it fearmongering like you have been, go ahead, I can take it I just like to call it like it is, just like I did with the N2 plan.
I thought you were supposed to be good or something...disappointing
Except I gave my coin to grey...I want YOU to find proof that Shark physically said "I'm giving a coin to grey"...because right now, right now you are blowing smoke up our collective butts which put you right up in scumspect #1 for me. Now you are saying grey isn't town?
Right now you have Me not following the plan N2 which I said why, regardless of if you like it or not...I said I wasn't following it before hand, and I didn't.
TL;DR version...AE could be scum, Case on me=crap
It's about like saying "what can we find out from a vote analysis on a wagon" and then changing the votes around before quoting it
For the record, I put grey in light blue since I think he's pretty confirmed town, however there is a small margin of doubt that it could be a scum gambit. I also added myself in light blue because while I know I'm town, I can't prove it unless the rest of the town lynches me Added the names for replacements, but no other changes were made to order
This T/S list was later game (DRey who was scum wasn't included) All the town ARE actually town in this one. He also leaves himself wiggle room to go "Hey Sep was scum!" for town points in the event that Sep got lynched by saying "one of these is town.
Since this was later in the game, I think it gave him less "wiggle" room to be able to put scumbuds in the town portion....Just my opinion of course, but something to think of when looking at T/S list analysis if you are going to attempt to do so.
This was posted early in the game (in the 200's) and I didn't see another one using the search function anyway At the point he did this Battlemaster was also a pretty good "suspect" from several people so having him not include him might have looked bad. But that's just from what I'm gathering by scrolling through, kinda refreshing my memory a bit.
I know it's always just one persons opinion vs another...but it's all there colorcoded for everyone elses thoughts as well.
In this game, he did the T/S list shortly after placing in but still reasonably early in the game (in the posts 300). poggy had no *real* suspicion on him at the time either. Most of the suspicion was on Shark at the time and look OH LOOK! Shark is the only person listed as "scum".
I'd say based on his "comfort level" placing in, there are high chances of at least one person in the "town" being scum, however he only listed grey and AE as town and potential town. So I suppose it would depend on if you agree if AE is scum...why. Or if you can imagine the grey confirmation being a scum gambit. Basically, I'd say one, but not both are likely to be scum based on his history of T/S lists.
After that, it's hit or miss because it's basically someone who is listed as neutral (which is everyone else) is his scumbuddy. It really doesn't tell us that much more.
And why am I doing this...because, again, you are using Wheat's T/S list to smear me (MirrorE the lurker who I would have voted for as well) as one of his scum buddies which was PRIOR to me placing in, rather than his comments AFTER I placed in. At least be accurate in your mudslinging.
@ Nis - why no real commentary? Why just yeah sounds good and a vote?
There are several inconsistencies that I pointed out already with DRey's thoughts. Why do YOU think he'd do that?
@ AE - *IF* you are town, you seriously need to get your act together and make a serious effort to play *this* game.
Yea I'll let the scum know excatly whats going on. Give them all the info they want(something Caex was against also). Way to fearmonger scum.
Yeah lets tie ourselves together :rolleyes:.
Look how Nis jumps to the vote. So eager to get the day done.
If I'm lynched you better damn well lynch him tomorrow!!!!
They hate us cause they ain't us.
Did you read how the day ended? I was set to end the day. We were still talking about coins. I then indicated I'd be away and then the last few votes happened. I like how you fluff this to condemn me.:-/
They hate us cause they ain't us.
I'm a mathematics major, so nobody can pull the wool over my eyes when it comes to statistics. Using statistics is one of the worst things you can do to get your point across, because with the flick of the wrist they can become slanted in your favor. EX:
Yadier Molina for the St. Louis Cardinals is hitting around .317 this year, exceptionally well for a catcher. But you take this statistic to someone who doesn't know baseball all that well and say "this guy is crap, he's creating an out around 68% of the time, and they're gonna go "Wow, yeah he isn't doing that well."
A rough example I know, but it just goes to show that you can always stack statistics in your favor, and I'm having a feeling in my gut that that is what DRey is doing right now.
Yes. I've been saying that all along, but others thought it would be a good idea to have all of our coin information out in the open and to try to stack coins. As though the scum would just leave us to do that.
If you look back, the repeated failure to grasp this concept is one of the reasons that I found Iso scummy, which is why I bring it up again.
No, I would not think grey was confirmed town if he investigated someone and got a town result. That isn't how it works. Wheat investigated someone and claimed a town result on them and he was scum, so clearly, that doesn't make you town.
What does make you town is when you turn up a scum, which is what greymon did. If he came back on D3 and said "I investigated <player name>, they're town" I would still consider him town behaviorally but would neither 100% trust that result, nor consider him 100% cleared.
Zero behaviorally. Zero in terms of actions. I see nothing that makes you town.
Inaccurate. I never said anything similar to "100% sure" about Iso.
Don't see this working for a variety of reasons - failure to agree on the "townie runner-up", deviation from the plan (as two players have already done), possibility of feeding scum a lot of coins, extreme unlikeliness of the player who is receiving all the coins surviving the night, if town.
I'm in agreement.
a) greymon
b) Yes.
c) DRey and Fox
You make good points in A through D. You already know that E is WIFOM, and F isn't really accurate, considering Wheat, pinky, and greymon all have past experience with E_P.
I've always seen AE as scum suspect #3, behind you and Fox. He's just been too low-content to be for real, but I wasn't aware he was posting in other games as well.
For you to suggest him as the other half of "my" scumteam is an interesting move. I mean, let's evaluate it from a scum perspective. You must know you aren't getting me lynched, so it has to be option #2, which according to you is AE. If he's your scumbuddy, you're gambling a lot on gaining town cred by bussing him and going after me/Nis/Fox on the last day.
So this exchange makes me feel slightly better about your towniness.
Just "interactions"? How about positive or negative interactions?
I also already made 2 cases stating how pinky did not actually pressure Wheat. I don't know if you read those or not yet, but I reject that attempt to state it as canon.
This part isn't doing a whole lot for me. Vote analysis like this is a lot more useful on D5 or D6 of a large game with 2-3 scum down, so you can really take a look at what patterns exist. For you to say "never voted scum" so far when we've only had one scum is a little disingenuous.
To state it another way, I recognize that this date is "all we have", but when the sample size is as small as it is here, we're better off not using data analysis like this at all, since the margin for error is so great and the stakes, at this point, are so high.
Examples?
True, but I also point you to D1 of Ender's Mafia, where Art does indeed tunnel on someone (AsianInvasion), but put together a considerable case to try to implicate him. Here, as you said, he just sat around and called people scum, then replaced out.
I think he was just disengaged in general from whatever eventually caused him to replace out and that's the reason for the behavior you describe above, rather than what I consider his actual scum behavior, which more closely resembles Ender's.
Like I said, I made 2 cases where I establish, in detail and with evidence, that pinky's interactions with both Iso and Wheat are not what you describe them as. I also made note of how she lied about her past experience with me, put Albus at L-1 in an attempt to pre-empt me from contributing on D1, then blamed Nis for hammering after she'd done the dirty work of setting him up, and totally tried to escape having to respond to my accusations by trying to get into night. We remember how N3 went, I hope?
According to you, I'm scum for being "wrong about everything", but the only thing I'm wrong about that you actually mention is that I don't consider you to be town.
So, actually, you have nothing. Just like pinky. What a surprise.
Painful even to read. Whenever anyone's conclusion from looking at data is "so, I'm cleared", that's a great time to start lynching that player.
Not to mention that once again your data is simply too small a sample size. You start with a good foundation - scum have trouble interacting with one another - but then your conclusions are wild extrapolations that have no basis in reality.
In minis, it's quality, not quantity. If you had thrown up a huge quote wall that listed every one of the interactions Wheat had with the players you list above, and described how they were positive or negative, that would've been excellent analysis and something we could really sink our teeth into. This stuff is just numbers, though, and I get the feeling you're trying to bluff us with math. Replace in, flash-bang charm offensive, numbers, Qs, and poof! You're cleared, game's settled, concede now, scum.
I'm not that great at math, but stat was always my strong point, and I remember enough to know this stuff is BS.
Again, I do agree with the Wheat-AE link, although I will point out that ME had made absolutely no posts at this time, whereas AE had at least been vaguely participating.
Again with the caveat of "only one scum, so not voting him isn't as egregious as you think it is", I approve of this line of attack.
I'm totally with you up to this point.
This is where it starts to break down. If we knew for sure that Shark sent, then Fox would be totally cooked. But there's no confirmation of that. Why can't it be that only 2 people sent to Shark, and he hung on to his coin, and the only one who actually sent to greymon was Fox?
Good point. That decision was always an incredibly dubious one and the chief reason why Fox has been my #2 suspect all game.
Don't agree, as I said above.
Also true.
Will be interested in seeing her response to this.
WIFOM again.
Can't agree. This isn't settled. You have widened the field considerably, but there's still only one confirmed townie here, and to be blunt I see all four of the rest of you as potential scum on behavior.
AE - lurking, failure to follow the plan, very low content, dubious voting history
Fox - failure to follow the plan, lack of votes, bad arguments concerning greymon, poor interactions with pinky
Nis - general lurkiness, low content over the last couple of game days, very suspect vote below
DRey - reams of scum behavior from his predecessor, fuzzy math, self-proclamation as cleared
We're not done here. We still have time to go over behavior.
Wasn't crazy about how you didn't comment at all on DRey's posts except to answer his question about your voting history, but once he proposes this super plan, you're ready to throw down a vote at LyLo without even discussing it.
Actually, "wasn't crazy about [it]" doesn't really cover it. This was atrocious. FoS: Nis.
Wait a second.
...If you're lynched today and you're town, there isn't going to be a tomorrow! How can you not know that? It sounds like you already know we're going to keep playing if you die. Not at all how I would expect a townie to respond at LyLo.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
6 days remaining.
~~~
Votecount
Nis (1) - Archmage Eternal
Archmage Eternal (1) - Nis
It takes 4 to Lynch with 6 alive.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
However if Nis, Greymon and Zinda have anything they want clarified I will gladly expand on my points.
@Grey I know exactly what you are seeing, I too though Nis was scum while I reread, mostly because of the way he defended scumWheat, however from my own experience town can do those things too. I kinda agree your points about not very smart for town to defend other people without knowledge of their alignment but I've lost many games because my town reads were mislynched because I lacked the guts to defend them and let them die. I'm not repeating past mistake therefore I will always speak my mind when I see a bad wagon, if I was in Pinky's position I would have defended Iso the same way she did, Iso's wagon was atrocious. I was burned before for this particular trait of my town play, in Mean Girls I defended Eron like a madman, and when he eventually flipped scum I was the next to go, town lost that game...
Nis defending Wheat is suspicious but not 100% proof of guilt, in fact from my experience scum dislike blindly defending each other, preferring to deflect, chainsaw from their buddies because it's a subtler way of protection.
Another little tidbit about me, I'm a computer science major I know exactly what you mean by number can mislead, but numbers never lie, the way they are presented is the fault. Statistic is a very valid way of playing mafia, in fact I want to present you not one but two games where I have caught the scum using this methodology of me. It really works.
Star Trek
Touhou
I'm going to be blunt here, I'm afraid we will lose this game because of your lack of skill. I have nothing against you personally but in my reread I've noticed how wrong you were all the time. Iso even said something along the lines "Grey is too wrong to be scum" and I 100% agree, please please use your mind man, if you disagree with my case on AE and Fox I can expand on it, give you more, just ask me questions, be a townie, don't let your lack of time or maybe your dislike of my acid style cloud your judgment.
@Zinda looks like you are our last hope, if you really are town this is certainly not your best showing but despite your scum read of Pinky you can see the truth of my case, please wake up, the time is near the end, no-lynch at this point will be disastrous.
---
I prefer AE to die because of coins but I can also agree with a Fox lynch at this point, both are proven liars and have consistently bucked all plans and behaved strange all game (Fox not voting, AE not doing anything while joining all town wagons). I cannot agree with anything else today.
Mini case on AE
Naked vote on Albus he later explain he voted not because he felt the guy was scum but because day was dragging, as EP noticed day wasn't dragging, the game was very low on posts and 2 or 3 guys had barely posted. (Mirror_Entity for example had just posted once)
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8724741#post8724741
"I don't feel Iso is scum"
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8773514#post8773514
"still nothing indicating scumIso, what you guys are seeing? the coins?"
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8783885#post8783885
This is the turning point, Iso wagon was stalled for quite sometime, pressure was starting to shift into Wheat, AE started to be fear Iso could escape the lynch so he needed a reason to hop into his towniest read.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8828245#post8828245
And here's the full 180º AE has just joined the wagon he never understood or liked for weak reasons.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8831949#post8831949
I feel there's little doubt about AE at this point since he has:
a)participated on all town wagons (even the ones he initially disliked)
b)never interacted with WHeat, and this goes both ways, Wheat also never interacted with him.
c)quickhammered to cease conversation about the plans on D2.
d)Has done NOTHNG the whole game.
e)Fully ignored Wheat wagon even when he was confirmed scum.
f)Killed EP because he was questioning him at the end of D1.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
You also didn't actually respond do any points. Why is that?
And as AE said, I don't know if there is going to be a tommorrow but you are making it look less likely. I have stuff to do today, but expect a real (not phone post) later.
I don't know WGs and PBs meta. But wasn't this greymon first game since three years ago or something? and didn't he replace in after EP was killed? but that's not a strong point anyway.
On seasons AE was also low content but he at least tried to follow his instincs ("Kpaca is scum") and push his cases. Here he's not doing anything, even his push on Shark felt weak and he never really tried to get him lynched. I also think is really strange to keep posting elsewhere while you ignore the game that's probably in lylo... but now that the pressure has started shifting into him looks like he will post more.
After finishing my reread and getting the whole picture I can only accept a AE and Fox as scum, actually I have documented "cases" on everyone because I saw strange things on all of guys while rereading, but as I can't see anyone else besides Fox and AE being scum I see no point in expanding that.
I dislike qualifying interactions because I think it's an easy way for scum to falsify data, because it's easy to argue "you think that's scummy but I believe that's townie". My data is raw and I can provide the links of it all because I have documented all in a google doc, I'm not trying to falsify anything. Also from my experience scum dislike to interact with each other period.
Fine, but we will have to agree to disagree here, in my opinion PB was pushing for WG HARD and when no one was really paying attention to him, heck she even noticed Poggy lurking, Poggy is a big spammer like Iso, the fact he was lurking here and eventually disappeared was a big tell.
This data is outdated, but I agree it's not very interesting for the reasons you state, but I don't think it should be completely disregarded anyway. That being said it's certainly a minor point (if I remember well I even said "that's not very important" myself).
Cyberpunk, but I don't want to pursue this avenue since I believe you to be town now.
That's moot now. You certainly can't be scum with AE and AE is my biggest scumread.
I'm not Pinky so I can't really explain why she "lied" about experiences from you or anything else but it thing this can be explained because she simply confused something she read for something she experienced. I have read so many games sometimes I confuse things I've read for things I have actually participated.
When I said that I believed you to be wrong about Foxlet too, considering just this Day I felt she was town because she was actually trying to do something while most of the guys were busy doing nothing. Now that I believe Fox to be scum you were only wrong about: Iso and PB/me. Not much but certainly far from your game on Ender where I don't remember you being wrong about anything.
yeah I know I'm a braggart, sue me.
Examples? I think my conclusions are pretty good considering what we have.
It's not BS, I've done this successfully before so I tend trying to repeat past successes. I have already explained why I didn't try to analyse the quotes but that's a idea I dig.
Yup, this makes thing even more damming for AE, because he has been playing since the start he has 37 posts, wheat also has a lot of posts yet both of them have NEVER talked, questioned, commented or quoted each other.
I never though it was egregious just something of note. Considering we only have one scum and his wagon was just "cop confirmed scum" we can't extract much from votes on scum. My main point was that he managed to cast 4 total votes in a game he really isn't playing.
It totally can be, because town can lie too so even though Shark said he was ready and was committed to the plan he could have not followed it. But how likely is that? I think it's very low imho. Because we know Shark is town, we know he has been following the plans so far (N1 big all money, N2 give to towniest) so I expect him to continue that trend.
I think I even know why she admitted that... when I was scum on Enders we where afraid of a "commander vote tracker" so we tried to play around it while we could. I think they may have been afraid of being somehow caught on a coins tracker or lying somehow (yeah now we all know this is a open setup but maybe them didn't believed on that back there). In any case there's no way for townFox to ever give a coin to one of her scumreads.
She kinda responded and it didn't convince me. She said "in my other game vampires I was vote shy too, why didn't you read that game", but that's bogus because.
1)My life doesn't revolve around mafia, I have already spend lots of time skimming one game of her and when I noticed she's was lying I see no point in continuing my research.
2)The way they both answered my question was also telling, Nis gave me links, make it easy for me, she said "go read my blog". Because of this I almost ignored her meta I read Nis most recent town game and found it consistent with what he said. I only got interested in reading her games when I discovered she gave AE coins for craptastic reasons, that's when I searched her blog and discovered she was lying about that.
3)When one says "I'm like that in all my games" if doesn't require lots of game to disprove it, just one and after finding one (the very first one I read) I stopped searching for more.
4)I choose Triskelion for three reasons: very recent game (2 months old?), she was town and lived until late. In vampire she died early (N1?) therefore counting if she cast many votes there would be misleading.
@Fox you mentioned getting in an argument before for being vote shy, which game this particular discussion took place? can you provide the link?
In mafia almost everything can be seen as WIFOM, and scum greatly benefits from this defense. I agree with you Grey was the obvious NK and I disagree this quote of Shark ("I will be investigating Fox or AE") is a very valid point.
Fully agree with this, I could also enumerate reasons for why you are scum, but I would be lying to myself if I considered you to be scum at this point. I have no rush to end this day or conversation but deadline is coming and this town is slow to post (this include you) so if you have things to say please be quick.
It's worse than that, I think AE next step is "oh we are in lylo, I wasn't really paying attention, after this townslip I can't be scum, let's lynch Nis".
That's the second time you said this, I ignored the first time because I had a town read of you but I have a question for you.
How do you know I'm a good player?
But I'm pushing for AE lynch today not yours, why do you say there will be no tomorrow since you have no way to know AE's alignment, haven't you recently said you believe AE is scum?
---
Anything more we need to discuss? I want to particularly get input from Grey, Zinda and Nis.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
I wanted to respond to this quickly before my next appointment. Because...again...you are Buddying Nis.
I said, all my games are in my blog. I even make it easy for the lazy (ya'll can check if you haven't). They ARE hyperlinked so you can just click the links. from the my blog. So "Nis provided links" and I didn't is again, crap. So tell me again...EXACTLY how I'm lying? I have nothing in my blog except mafia stats, if you want to make a crap case on me with crap facts, you I expect you to do more research. That is my point. My life doesn't revolve around Mafia either, I try to make it easy on people which is WHY I made my blog hyperlinked. So, calling you out on BS.
Trisk which was my SECOND game. It ended in MAY. Oh and because you are too sufficiently busy to click more than 2 extra links, I did provide all the links this time. I did also add more information. Trisk, was pretty much over after I was NK. They lynched Arn (if I remember correctly) which led to the scum win....Sure...lets say I voted what did you say? 6 times? I'm assuming you aren't counting RVS?
Vampire, Ended *LAST MONTH* - I placed 4 votes, which ended with me self hammering as town because the rest of the town was IMO being dense. I was there until mid game.
Republicans - I only voted ONCE. Also finished end of July.
Also, Scum slip much? You said "the first game you read" in regards to Trisk. And yet you said you picked that one over Vamp because you thought I died in N1, which makes me think you DID, in FACT scroll through them all looking for information to twist.
Vamp I lasted until D3 (listed as N3 because the days and nights were reversed). Republicans, I was the D2 NK and Trisk I was NK D3. So...want to lie a bit more? So, both of those games not only finished SOONER, but I voted less.
As for the arguments, the main one is here...In Vamp...it starts here and you can see it continue. I was pretty sure I mentioned it in republicans in one of the arguments with Zeld (because he mentioned how he doesn't like to vote). Also, not an argument...but originally mentioned in Trisk (though I kinda remember Gricky and I going back and forth about it for a while at some point). And my first game Cirque.
The rest will have to wait till later.
In this game you have only cast one vote and when Wheat's lynch was a foregone conclusion so it's even less meaningful. This is exactly the kind of stuff noob scum does even without noticing (this is your first game as scum right?), you are so afraid of being caught you didn't cast any vote the whole game without even noticing.
---
I also noticed this while rereading once again.
I'm just going to leave this here.
So In the very same post you first try to mudsling Grey because you feel he's lying and WG is town, in the end of your post you suddenly believe Grey is telling the truth and you put a sad face because he have just "wasted" a investigation on SCUM.
There's no way for you to be town at this point. You are 100% caught scum.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
"my biggest suspect is shark"
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8831949&highlight=shark#post8831949
"my biggest suspect is shark again"
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8828245&highlight=shark#post8828245
"I like shark as scum"
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8730751&highlight=shark#post8730751
"Shark is scum"
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8709430#post8709430
"shark is lying scum"
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8758102#post8758102
"Shark is opportunist scum"
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8758262#post8758262
"hey I need some town credit, therefore I will give my coin to the towniest, shark is also the scummiest"
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8798869#post8798869
"Iso your thoughts on my scumspect shark"
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8828245#post8828245
"you are scum because you ignore scumShark"
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8831949#post8831949
Conclusion
AE has tunneled on Shark the whole game, despite Shark being his biggest suspect on last day suddenly he had a change of heart and decided Shark was the best choice for receiving a coin so he decided the best course of action was to contradict the plan even considering he would receive a lot of flame for doing it. This makes total sense, according to Fox of course, after all the plan consisted of AE giving a coin to his biggest townread (Grey) and not for his biggest scumread (Shark), unacceptable!
--
Another interesting coincidence. Remember when AE had the great idea of giving his coin to his biggest town read so he could at least be a bit useful on #573? You guys want to know for whom he gave his coin? The answer is in #715
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=8862869&highlight=caex+coin#post8862869
It's kinda unfortunate Caex died that night so he couldn't confirm AE's generosity... exactly like Shark on the next night... what a strange coincidence, maybe AE is confusing "sending coins to" with "sending my NK to". Well I think AE should send his coin to Fox tonight so hopefully she ends up dead tomorrow.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
@ DRey - response to your how do I know you are a good player. Iso is one of my best friends. While I haven't been playing long, I've been reading some of his games in part, off and on since Flame Warriors (whenever the hell that was). I know WHO a lot of the "better" players are, even though I don't exactly their meta.
Oh...so you DID read them...like I was pretty sure you had when you picked Trisk as your example.
Why do you want everyone to answer the question of who they think is the towniest when you stated it was a good idea to have everyone to turtle down and save coins. Waffle much? I think you are trying to get intel.
You also state poggy is a big spammer. Maybe in games you have played with poggy, but the reason I counted poggy null to start was because having just finished a game with him, he wasn't I would say...a high frequency poster.
Yeah, you re posting that was meaningless without context...the context was that I was advocating Iso's plan to f'ing LYNCH WHEAT AND NOT WASTE A INVESTIGATION ON HIM.
As much as you and Zindy like to think less of my intellect. I'm smart enough to know that unless we lynch scum today, the town is probably hosed. I already said why, but you chose to ignore it AGAIN. Town is currently 4-2. With a town mislynch that puts us 3-2. If the scum very likely have the vig shot which means they can instant win. You or Zindy can correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that USUALLY considered lylo?
@ Zindy - It wasn't a failure to grasp it. I know what you are saying. Scum get to coordinate. They got to start early AND they get to work around our plans we make in the day time. I just found the N3 plan better because it cut out the "trust me...really" If someone didn't follow the plan, it narrowed down the possibilities.
I really need to stop implying things...This was the post I was thinking of originally and then the followup. When you were arguing with pinky about it later.
Thank you for clarifying the point on grey. It's exactly why I was asking *because* of the way the game was set up. As I said, it seemed like some people were just going hey grey is town! It seemed inconsistent (to me) that you would say grey is only town after investigating a scum, but also giving an example of kpaca throwing his buddies under the bus in seasons. It's why I wanted clarification Make sense?
Drey, nothing personal, but I think you're being arrogant, and your tl;dr posts are aggravating. You're droning on and on without really saying anything. I know fluff, and your posts are fluff. I've been playing this game a LONG time, and cut my teeth when some of the best mafia players on this site cut theirs. I went a little crazy, and left the site for awhile, and while I may be rusty and quite frankly lazy (I can't find the time or the energy to go back and quote stuff the way I should, or do PBPA, etc.) I can read people. My skill (or lackthereof) has nothing to do with this. Is there a possibility I'm wrong? Absolutely, but I've felt Nis has been scum since the beginning of this Day, and now I'm positive of it. And you coaching him, buddying him, and shining the spotlight so hard on other people has made me believe you're the other scum.
There's 6 of us left:
Me
Zindabad
Foxlet
Archmage_Eternal
Drey
Nis
Zindy has read town to me since the beginning. Scum don't come up with arguments the way his was earlier. He garnered town points in my eyes, and has stayed this way. Fox was largely up in the air for me, and oddly enough if I were to want to lynch her it would only because Iso pegged her as scum, but that's not enough to go on. Iso is overconfident in his reads at best, and her reactions as of late peg her town in my eyes. AE is a lurker. I've played other games with him (back in '09, when I was starting, but it was still the same). HE. LURKS. Lurking is a null tell, and since he is willing to vote Nis who I feel is 100%scum I'm willing to save him for the next day for closer evaluation if need be.
If anyone wants my PBPA of Nis let me know. I'll do my best to do it, but like I said if you go and search this thread for all his posts, and start reading you'll see why I think he's scum right now.
Vote: Nis
I will no longer be cooperating with anything Drey suggests, as I feel he is the other scum member.
@Foxlet: Nobody should have taken me for confirmed town because WG said I was. When he flipped scum though, I'm the closest we've got. Go back and reread me and Arn, and you see that he was the towniest player while he was here, and I have done absolutely the best I could at every turn of this game to ensure the town wins. I invite everyone to take a closer look at me if they have any kind of suspicions, because that's what we NEED to do. It's why I took a closer look at Nis, because I got tired of him getting a free pass. Something didn't add up to me, and when I looked it jumped right off the page at me.
5 days remaining.
~~~
Votecount
Nis (2) - Archmage Eternal, greymon90210
Archmage Eternal (1) - Nis
It takes 4 to Lynch with 6 alive.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
Wait. I'm trying to smear you? And DRey is as well? Where?
I'm just keeping a possibility open. It's something that has been nagging me but it's nothing I would consider a smear. I feel more strongly about Fox and AE than Fox and you. The Fox and you pairing is the only other possibility I feel it could be, that's why I listed it.
I'd like it. Can't defend myself if nothing concrete is presented.
Of course we have just five days left so some decision should be made.
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
This is baffling, it's unfortunate but looks like we will lose just because of your stubbornness because we need 4 votes for a lynch and if you refuse to vote AE and Fox we will lose because there's no tomorrow.
If the only one you trust is Zinda (btw you trust him for bad reasons, scum can totally make good, smart posts and Zinda is very very good as scum) please hear him because I think after everything I've posted there's no way for him to not agree with me.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Fox is lying again. I've never played Flame Warriors and no one but me considers me a good player, Iso particularly think I'm godawful. Fox tried to buddy up with me before by randonly saying I'm one of the best players when no one else thinks so.
I'm not proud to say this but my last games were pretty bad and I've screwed up way to much, I've even be accused of playing against my wincon in Kill Bill mafia and I'm currently being investigated by the council for my atrocious play on that game.
No, I've already told you I didn't read them because it's written in the description of your blog("town, died N2"). That's meaningless though, you have said so yourself you have casted a lot of votes as town on all your games except one, conveniently one that you died on N2 and replaced in therefore one you had a little time to cast votes anyway.
Poggy is a well know spammer and I can provide you with lots of games where he shows this, I have no knowledge of a game where Poggy doesn't spam but feel free to show me, if you can.
I've quoted the context When Greymon said WG was guilty you said "But greymon said if Iso flipped town he would not investigate Wheat, now he's saying WG is guilty, how curious :rolleyes:" You used the rolleyes smile to imply Greymon was gambitting scum and WG was town you can't erase your previous posts and hell I've even quoted it, it's there for everyone to see, you can't deny you were trying to cast suspicion on Grey's investigation.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Pot calling the kettle black I see...
I wouldn't say Iso thinks you are godawful ;)...except after your last play. And yes, I do know about the Kill bill. I do read the council thread from time to time. Defensiveness noted. I did not say "you were in Flame warriors". This is what I did say:
Since you made referance to Iso, you clearly knew that I was talking about him when I said reading "HIS" games since flame warriors. I did not say anywhere that YOU were in Flame Warriors. And, play style is a matter of opinion. Some people don't like Iso's because he does some really crazy stuff all the time. It's a matter of what is generally considered acceptable in "normal" mafia play and what isn't.
Dragon got pretty PO'd in Vamp because I had what I considered a multi wincon. When I decided I couldn't win one part, I decided to help the town win. He thought that was grossly unfair and was "playing against my wincon". I bring that up because that isn't considered "normal" mafia behavior. I do things that aren't "normal"
So, you are comparing apples to oranges. 6 votes vs 4 votes vs 1 vote. Even 6 votes is rather abysmal. As I've said, it was also my second game and not to be compared to my current games.
My basic point is that if you *didn't* read or browse the games, why didn't you go with the most similar game to this one?
Republicans...finished sooner AND I replaced in. JUST LIKE THIS GAME.
Or hell, even Vampire. More current game AND I lasted the equivalent amount of time as Trisk?
I'm saying that yes, you did, in fact go to Trisk to find out which had the highest vote count just to prove your point.
As I told you, I just got finished with a game with him...that would be Vampire. He posted somewhat frequently in the beginning and was pretty nonexistent towards the end game. His posting habits would not be on par with Iso by any stretch of the imagination.
Nope
I would like it. I will also re-read Nis again and try to put my own notes out there. I'll try for today because of the deadline forthcoming, but it might not be until tomorrow.
No, and I realize that. Zindy pretty much cleared things up for me because the disconnect in my mind between when Wheat "confirmed" (ie investigated) you and several people acted like you were indeed confirmed at that point....god forbid anyone speak ill of you. And the point where you caught Wheat...make sense? Those two weren't adding up in my mind.
So according to this your sold on Fox being scum but your voting me. It's Fox and someone else so lets vote the someone else. Care to explain?
They hate us cause they ain't us.
I've been too lazy to change my vote. I'd be happy with either one of you being lynched today because I think you're both scum. I keep saying I'm open to the possibility of Fox and greymon being scum, but it's a remote possibility.
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I can go back to pinky's posts and show you how her "push" on Wheat was a load of nonsense too. I agree about the posting other places and sudden sharp increase in posting rate, however.
I never accused anyone of falsifying data, just misusing, intentionally or unintentionally. Another possible incident of this is how you seemed to cherrypick your meta on Fox, which I'm not wild about.
I think his (poggy's) playstyle has been shifting to a more sedate posting rate lately, for what it's worth.
Why not? You've alluded to this a couple of times. Why not me and AE? The world doesn't end when we work together, you know. Sometimes we even win. Other times he kills me when I'm his own ally.
How about you? I had you as town in that game.
Yes, it is dubious. How about Fox and Nis, though? More posts and fewer votes is a little scary to me as well. I voted exactly once as scum in LOTR II in 24 posts. Nis and Fox have a lot more than that.
Yeah. I think this is the best part of the case. I think Fox is scum.
Sticking to my guns here. For example, on N1, I think E_P was a suspect more than a likely NK. He was under pressure for bad interactions with Albus. I would have considered him a suspect had he survived. But he got killed. Why? The most obvious conclusion is because he was on to someone and they needed him dead, but that's WIFOM again - the scum could've killed him to cast suspicion on those people who he suspected who are actually townies.
Same situation here. Scum could have killed Shark in order to protect themselves (Fox and/or AE) from an investigation, or to incriminate the people who he publicly stated suspicion of. Two equally likely possibilities, one of which will result in disaster, is the textbook definition of WIFOM.
No response to my post concerning you?
Also, if Fox is the common denominator in your scumpairs, why not vote her? PPE: I see AE will later ask you the same question.
Now, hold on. I never questioned or thought less of your intellect. There are just certain conventions that seem obvious to people who have been playing for a long time, like me, that are not obvious to newer players.
Also, your math is a bit off. The scum won't need the vig shot to win tonight if we mislynch today. It'll be 3-2 going into night, and they'll just NK a townie and win automatically.
So yes, this is LyLo.
You may have misinterpreted me here. I said Iso failed to grasp it, not you.
And again, it is possible that greymon bussed Wheat the same way that kpaca bussed Void. I just find it incredibly unlikely considering his behavior and the way Wheat went down. I think he's confirmed.
I think you're scum, too. There's just no way around how you deviated from the plan N2, I'm afraid. Giving the coin to Caex, greymon, Shark, or a couple of other townie-seeming players would make sense if you wanted to bail on the plan. Giving it to AE was a bizarre, incomprehensible move, and I think there's a scum motive for it that will become apparent after the game is over.
I would like to hear, if not a full PBPA, a summary of your points against Nis. I see a lot of description of everyone else but not much that actually talks about him. I'm finding him scummier and scummier and would like to see what you have on him.
Again, "too lazy" and "happy with [this other scummy person] being lynched, but still voting you" are classic scum language. You say the possibility of AE being scum is greater than the possibility of greymon being scum, which makes sense. Let's even say 85% scum for AE and 15% for greymon. Those are arbitrary numbers.
Scumpair 1 (85% likely): AE, Fox
Scumpair 2 (15% likely): greymon, Fox
Probability that AE is scum: 85%
Probability that greymon is scum: 15%
Probability that Fox is scum: 100%
So again, why aren't you voting her?
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
I would prefer we lynch AE toDay since my case on him is stronger but I'm also fine with a Fox lynch today, nonetheless I'm afraid Nis is just really bad town so we will lose tomorrow if we lynch him, therefore I want to have insurance of the vig with us just in case we lynch him and he flips town. Meaning I think we need to massclaim coins to guarantee a way that we can get two townies to have 5 coins (Greymon, Zinda and me are nice options imho).
To hasten the process I will just claim my coins. I started with zero, gained two and gave one to shark last night. I'm currently with 1. I'm fine giving it to Grey or Zinda.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
I know you all think I'm scum, and the only way I can prove I'm not is by my death.
I'm currently working on the Nis analysis with a few thoughts on pinky (and random finds) thrown in as well.
EBWOP:
Vote Nis
Yep, DRey and Nis, scum team.
DRey's latest post clinches it... His recent post of "lynch Fox and lynch Nis tomorrow".
Ok...I know...everyone TOWN who thinks I'm scum...open mind time. We all agree it's lylo.
OK, you lynch me and I flip town which I will, believe it or not...There will be no tomorrow... so there will be no "voting Nis". I think its an attempt to get the town to vote anyone town to hurry into night phase. First AE, now me. grey is clearly off limits, and based on earlier arguments if Zindy is town as well that would be a battle he couldn't win. Gogo low hanging fruit.
Having said all that, I still stand by what I said to start with...if you want to lynch me be my guest but I will not self hammer. Also, I reserve the right to say "I told you so" post game
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Still... UNVOTE
I've noticed a couple interesting things...will try to post what I have at least to the point I have it tonight.
By the way, DRey did seal his on fate with that last post about lynching fox, then Nis.
AE thinks Nis is scum, I think Nis is scum, Fox thinks Nis is scum, and apparently so does Drey...sooo who does he advocate voting?
Not Nis?! Are you kidding me? We all think he's scum, and you're like "Umm...no guys let's lynch Fox now" rather than "yeah let's lynch the guy we all think is scum and figure out the rest later?"
Yeah, we vote for Nis now and you tomorrow. You're showing a sense of urgency, to get this game to go to Night so you can win, and it's not gonna happen.
PBPA commensing
No content.
This is the first post with content in it, and the first one that spiked on my radar. Color change is mine to highlight this. He's implanting the idea that everyone who uses the Dark Cult is obvscum, because the scum don't want to have to continue spending coins on the Holy Tabernacle to ensure that their kills go through.
No content.
His reasoning on Albus was weak. I've said before that as I was reading this game before I replaced in Albus never seemed all that scummy, and he gives like 2 descriptive adjectives as to why Albus is scum.
Taking clues from his scumbuddy, waiting to see what she would do. Also, really don't like the fact that he pushed the Albus lynch before Arn was replaced.
Pandering, making sure that he doesn't look scummy by quickhammering. He knew Albus was a goner, so he didn't mind having to wait.
Hammers Albus. To this point, he has said things in 2 whole posts about why he thinks Albus is scum, and the reasoning is flimsy.
Defends Wheat, hard. He knew Wheat wasn't lying about the investigation, because Wheat DID win it, so he knew Wheat wouldn't get counterclaimed.
Pandering to the town. Realizes he defended Wheat a little too hard so had to backtrack.
Fearmongering. This whole post reeks of it, and scaring people into not believing Shark.
Discussing the rules fiasco, no real tells here that I saw.
More defense of Wheat here. As I was rereading Nis last week, this is where I knew he was scum. He KNOWS Wheat wasn't lying, and keeps calling him town because a scum wouldn't run that gambit, and that's exactly what happened.
Trying to defend the hammer.
Wow, that's not what he said earlier, about it being highly unlikely that Wheat was lying. Now it's "certainly possible"? C'mon...
Notice that I bolded, underlined, italicized, color-changed, and drew huge arrows to this part of the post. We've been talking about this, scum don't like to do T/S lists because of how easily they're analyzed later in the game. This is a huge tell in my opinion.
Argument with Iso. Not much here.
More defense of Wheat. I can't believe none of us caught on to this at this point.
More weak arguments against Iso, and protecting of Wheat.
Fearmongering.
More fearmongering. He really doesn't want us pooling our coins together apparently.
More talk of our coins not being as valuable as the scums, when in fact ours prove to be very valuable.
More arguing with Iso.
Here he flip-flops and says that when we coordinate we put pressure on the Mafia, and it's true.
No content.
More subtle defense of Wheat. Scum are going to keep quiet about the investigation, ergo Wheat=/=Scum.
Maths, fishing, and fearmongering. The math is really confusing (and I'm a math major). He fishes to try and figure out exactly who got coins, and who doesn't have any anymore. BUUT, he doesn't officially suggest this, its kinda like Peter's proposition to eat the kids. "I was just gonna say it jokingly, and then gauge your reaction and possibly go for it." /FamilyGuyreference
Defending Wheat hardcore.
He doesn't want Wheat investigated. Derails Iso's chaining idea solely because of this fact.
Fearmongering, based on speculation about the vig shot.
Seems to defend Fox here a bit, this will come up later.
No content.
MORE defense on Wheat, and trying to get people to speak up about giving away coins. They want to know who has the most coins at this point.
Fearmongering about the plan. Not knowing which one of us to kill that night was terrible for the scum, and ended up costing them one of their members, AND in the long run I believe it cost them the game.
Pretty much signed one of our Death Warrants. Trying to get us to back out of the plan, when Caex and I KNEW that one of us was gonna die.
No content.
Ready to hammer again, otherwise no content.
No content.
Here he Foses Foxlet. It makes no sense. It's almost like he's setting up his next mislynch, when earlier it appeared he was at her defense.
Buddying with Pinky, which is important later. More slamming of Fox. So far he's slammed Albus, Iso, and Foxlet but continually defended Wheat.
Pandering to the town.
Eagerness to find out if they hit the right guy.
Fishing. Also claims to have sent a coin to me, even though apparently Caex is the gorram mayor of TownTown.
No content.
No content.
Fearmongering.
No content.
More fishing, it's all about who has the most coins.
Smears Foxlet, which he was already setting this up so it doesn't come as a surprise.
Starts to set up a mislynch on Zindy, based on what Pinky has to say.
Against pooling the coins again, doesn't want the cop investigation to be won.
Setting up AE and Fox for mislynches, but its also interesting to note he's preparing himself for a possible bus by naming his scumbuddy as one of his targets.
Still trying to figure out how many coins the townsfolk have.
Trying to cover up why he wants to know how much each of us have.
Speculating on where my coins came from. I think he was surprised because...wait for it....I believe Caex sent me a coin! He knew he was gonna be the one to go. I was confirmed town, but HE was the mouthpiece. He was the brain. So he was confused as hell on how I got the investigation.
Are you kidding me? This is obviously a gambit, and another bussing outlet if he needs to. I've seen another player on this site (Skander) do this before.
No content.
Conveniently claims to have sent his coin to the dead guy. This by itself doesn't say much, but after everything else...yeah.
Subtly trying to set me up. Implanting the idea that I could be scum, even though zero of my play has indicated this, nor has Arn's before me.
More confusing math, and assumptions. Arguments against AE are weak considering they were false.
Gets called out by AE and backs off.
More coin hypotheses, and assumptions, and "Hi guys I'm not lying!"
More confusing maths. Seriously I love math, but this made my head hurt. I also don't trust math in mafia very easily because as someone who has taken more math than most people do EVER I know how easy it is to skew the numbers in your favor.
Calling out Zindy, trying to get away from this discussion.
Defending of Fox again, after a "Huge FoS". Just odd.
This post confused me at first, until I realized that Drey replaced in the middle of a Day. They didn't have time to talk at night, so they have to communicate in thread.
More communication with his scum partner.
No content.
No content.
No content.
More implanting subtle hints that I might be lying, fishing about how many coins I have, and trying to say the scum have less (or more) coins than they actually do.
Defends being vote-shy, but I can't understand why. At this point he hammered Albus, and has thrown his vote around at least a little.
This sounds like desperation to get anyone lynched so they can win, because they know they're at lylo.
It's already been said why this post is bad, but I'll reiterate. In either scenario he feels Fox is scum, yet votes for AE. Also makes an excuse as to why he won't be around, and once again tries to implant the idea of me being scum in everyone's head.
I believe you are trying to subtly implicate me. Throw just enough doubt in that maybe people will believe you subconsciously. Also, here it is, I'm interested in your defense.
This is TERRIBLE. Too lazy=scum win. I'm too lazy to do a PBPA, but if it's gonna help us win I'll sit up after working my ass off all day and do it over the course of 3 hours. You don't care which one of them is going to be lynched because you know either way you'll win.
Sum up:
The only things that Nis has done this game have been to defend Wheat religiously, fearmonger, fish, and smear.
My vote stands, and I'm hoping this satisfies anyone who asked me to do this because I worked hard enough on it.
So...first off, this was going to be a Nis analysis and It really turned into a Nis + Pinky analysis with a touch of random interesting bits here and there.
Starting with WoD. Really…Not much on WoD, he? Had 3 posts prior to placing out...
#68 - WoD - First post was to Vote Iso, then immediately unvote so it wasn’t counted. This would have put him voting directly after poggy. (poggy voted for Iso #67, WoD #68). Didn’t want to look like Iso’s wagon was scum driven!
#70 - Art (Zindy) asked about WoD's false sounding excuse of “there is a second page” for reason of the unvote, which WoD never answered before placing out.
#91 - WoD - His last post prior to placing out (null - no information)
#96 – pinky - talks about not getting on Iso’s wagon which is a fair point if you legitimately think they are town. What caught my attention was this: “Scum tend to buddy up to townies and it makes me ignore Iso”. If, in fact Nis and DRey are a team I’m sure that comment was somewhat directed at WoD and poggy. Pinky doesn't actually ignore Iso. Pinky and poggy go back and forth about it for a few posts.
#104 – Shark – “It jumped to 5 before WoD caught himself and unvoted. Then Caex just unvotes after Albus puts it back to 5…..So either A: scum are jumping onto this wagon trying to push an easy lynch or B: scum are jumping off the wagon to keep it from reaching it.” - We know know that both Caex and Shark are town. It does not appear to be directed at anyone, just a comment of "yes, Iso's wagon was potentially scum driven"
#141 – pinky – “But Poggy meta makes it likely that Poggy's gambit was just a gambit.” Soft defense of poggy, but then several others did as well. Really a null tell IMO.
#145 – poggy – Replies to Albus but pinky had similar point earlier. Could be distancing??? “Being mum about your coin amount because "we keep the scum in the dark on one small detail is the dumbest thing i've heard. Using my plan we can potentially weed out liars and lock scum into things they don't want to be locked into” - I find this interesting because, well we also now know that poggy not only lied about his coin count but he was scum as well. I'll be looking hard, but something about that phrasing reminds me of pinky's N3 plan...:uhh: I might just be imaging things, but I'll be looking for that tomorrow.
#146 – poggy - "if the scum lie about their amounts we catch them when they try to claim having done something. We see who has given who coins and we do the math"…..We see exactly how well that’s worked out haven’t we. Goes hand in hand with the post above, scum advocating lynching the person lying about coins
#164 – Pinky – in response to poggy’s #146…"1) I doubt scum will lie about their coins. It's stupid and pointless…2) if scum lie there is no one to figure out if they are telling the truth this game until they are dead." - You doubt scum would lie about their coins? REALLY? Point 2 I can agree with, #1 we already have proven is false and even *I* know scum have every reason to lie about their coins.
#165 – poggy - responds to pinky, "they can’t claim to have enough to buy certain things" Obvious "non-answer" IMO. Obvious because, what good is it really going to do the town when you are trusting the scum to tell you the truth? NADA.
#203 – Nis replaces WoD
#205 – Nis – Responds to a post by pinky about using Dark cult. “Town doesn't have much use for the Dark Cult. I think the idea of anybody getting caught using the cult is obvscum is interesting.”….Which is interesting, considering DRey recommended everyone using Dark cult recently. More to the point, I personally find this interesting, because of the exchange itself. We are, again, assuming Nis + pinky/DRey. If that is indeed the case, this would feel like daytime scum talking-coaching to me.
#206 – Nis – Call me impressed…He reviewed the *entire* 200ish posts in about 1 hour???? How is that possible (and make anything like accurate reads unless you know who is town ahead of time)….moving on.
#273 – EP – Starts his needling on Nis to vote. Now remember, Nis hasn’t been in the game that long. Nis has also recently said that he doesn’t vote much unless he has a “strong” scum read, etc… so keep this in mind as we move forward.
#285 – pinky – Responds to Iso’s #270 being suspicious of Art (Zindy) or pinky. Leans towards Art (Doh)…and bases it on a lot of meta arguments. One of the first times I notice a real suspicion of poggy because he’s being “quite”.
#299 – pinky – just prior to Albus lynch - requests Nis’s reads, would like to wait for Zindy (Art’s replacement) and requests poggy’s prod
#304 – Nis – responds to EP about voting. Very sure Albus is scum, unsure about Iso but says meta arguments are null for him….Hmmm. Iso calls him out on it in #305 “not a fan of this post in general - I feel like...like it's not saying anything”
#306 – Nis – Hmm…so he can go through 200 posts in an hour but takes just as long to go through 100?
#310 – Zindy places in
#311 – Nis – the “infamous” asking to vote post…IMO, he’s basically asking “do you want me to vote Albus”…well, don’t blame me for the consequences. For someone who claims their vote stance is normal (ie he normally doesn’t vote much), why so easy a pushover?
#314 – pinky – The 180 turnabout from #299. Decides to NOT wait for Zindy to make any analysis, repeats Albus is scum along with potentially poggy, Art, and either Shark or Nis. Her premise is that Shark and Nis are null but would lean more on Shark???
#315 – Nis – the actual Vote – still looks bad.
#323 – pinky – defends her 180 vote by saying “welp, Zindy wasn’t going to do anything anyway”. Acts defensive and deflects back to Shark who was the one asking the question
#325 – pinky – said she was going to take a good look at Nis for the hammer….we’ll see if that ever materializes
#326 – Albus – Interesting, doesn’t think pinky is town with no real firm reason…which is interesting because in #281 his final player analysis felt she was town-ish or at least not scum. I believe he said "sheep and fitting in". I just found this interesting.
#328 – Wheaties places in
#337 – Wheaties – the T/S list and first real post…gonna breeze over the choice of Arn(grey) who just replaced out as we know that the entire thing seems like a reason to waste an investigation. I still find it intriguing (as did everyone else) the comment about “I'm thinking Nis will be a town-read as the day goes on, and Zindabad could go either way”. We know now that Wheat is scum, and he glossed this comment over. The comment everyone latched onto is “Nis will be a town read”…Wheat…knows…who…the…town…are! Hmmm. What caught my attention in this, that I wouldn’t have noticed otherwise was the “Zindy could go either way”. After looking at Wheat’s other T/S lists (that I already posted) it’s like he was saying, “just in case the **** hits the fan, look I said it could be Zindabad”…which lines up with his previous T/S lists. Weak, but it makes me wonder.
#340 – Nis – (gee look at #145)…He’s very ho-hum on the blatant lie from Wheat (about coin claim)
#357 – Nis – Interesting…Assumes Wheat is scum and Shark is town but wants to LYNCH SHARK??? Edits at the end (because of the rule shenanigans between Shark/Wheat) that makes him believe Wheat over Shark. Read it again...He is assuming Wheat is scum but wants to lynch Shark???? That's how I read that anyway.
#362 – pinky – makes a come back! Out of all the posts, chooses Wheat’s T/S list to respond to…Hmmm. Comments seem random, IMO. Soft defense of MirrorE for lurking based on meta but doesn’t mention AE for the same? Nis should be scummy for his vote, but hers was perfectly acceptable? I also took a look. Curiouser and curiouser… I compared pinky vs MirrorE’s games and even looked up MirrorE’s posts (to make sure he just hadn’t neglected to update his blog). I don't see any shared games between MirrorE and pinky. I see three scenarios here: 1-MirrorE is a gimmick and pinky knew who it is and played a game with the “real” owner who has a “lurk” history…2-pinky played with MirrorE on MafiaScum…pinky knows MirrorE is town (thus the soft defense) because she is scum.
#363 – pinky – comments on the Shark/Wheat investigation shenanigans. Only mentioning it mostly for clarity. She says “this says nothing about a living player” when it clearly says in the Trigger “…with a living players name”. Null right now since I very obviously screwed up on the calling of the guards for a very similar reason (not reading)….#364, catches the part about “living players”.
#367 – Wheat – Moves Zindy to “scum” position after taking pinky’s word about MirrorE’s lurk status as fact. Also blows off Nis’s hammer of Albus, because the rest of his posts make sense. This is why I went and looked up MirrorE and pinky's history. Why would Wheat just take pinky's word for it?
#370 – pinky – Wheat’s original post mentioned the vote/unvote. Pinky originally just addressed the unvote and is only now addressing the vote …which is to kinda deflect attention back to Nis for his bad, bad vote. Also “Why would a scum do this…”? I find that about as amusing as poggy’s “early comment about mass claiming to lynch liars on coin claims”
#374 – pinky – Yes Nis hammered Albus (badly). Pinky is laying *all* the blame on Nis for not waiting for the replacements. I find this interesting because if pinky was so concerned about waiting for replacement feedback she wouldn’t have re-voted. That’s how I see it anyway. If you are town, you don’t expect the rest of the town + scum to do the right thing. See comments above.
#383 – grey places in
#384 – pinky(DRey) – WIFOM argument again…I’m town because if I was scum I wouldn’t do this.
#412 – pinky – jumps on Iso’s comment about Wheat only having 1 coin. At this point there is still some confusion (on occasion) about set up…however it should be clear that Wheat likely only had 1 coin. He had just bid 2 (which at the time was the max) and the GoC’s had just paid out, leaving him 1.
#438 – Caex – just makes a good point @ pinky (and Iso) if they truly think Wheat is scum why waste the investigation on him? As in...why vote Iso if you truly believed Wheat was scum? (he goes to vote Iso)
#445 – Nis – replies to a post by shark, commenting that #357 wasn’t meant to be a vote, but a heading (ie he wanted to lynch shark as mentioned above). Also says he was ready to end D1 already??? Really?
I will also look at grey's post tomorrow when I can actually concentrate since I see he posted his analysis.
And it's probably a late night fantasy...but something I thought of was this.
There were 12 peeps in the game...and everyone started with 0-1-2 coins. I'm betting my original hypothesis of the scum team having one of each is more likely correct. Think about it...12 players 3 "groups" of coins. 4 players get 0 coins, 4 players get 1 coin and 4 players get 2 coins. Yes, they start out with technically less but have a the better hand of coordination.
I'd like to hear thoughts about it.
Check. I'm with you. My numbers are slightly different, though.
I'm under some deadlines at work so my time for this game has dramatically fallen. I can't keep up right now to all the back and forth. I do feel AE and Fox are scum so I'm content with either being lynched today. If we adjust your numbers above it would be something like AE, Fox is 99.5% and greymon, Fox is 0.5%. I listed the possibility of a greymon, Fox team because again, I like to list all possibilities. No stone unturned.
pinky came up with the idea. I was merely putting forth my opinion on it. It was an astute observation by pinky that I felt needed to be pointed out.
Three confirmed townies thought Albus was scum. That's why they voted for him and that's why I did as well. Albus kept changing his story. He changed his claimed coin amount for goodness' sake. When somebody is under as much pressure as he was changing his story is a bad move. It was D1 with a fair amount of content. Somebody did some things that were scummy and got lynched for it.
You are absolutely right. Let's analyze everything that happened while we were in the dark about how the rules concerning investigations work. Behavior is going to be absolutely consistent with a town or scum mindset when everybody is playing without knowing how the game works. [/sarcasm]
And what I said still seems valid to me. We knew somebody got the investigation; Dagger said exactly that.
You know what I was doing? Misunderstanding Caex's point. Also I was agreeing with him on the two possibilities. Investigation results in this game continue to be suspect.
I'll say it again. At this point analysis of the situation is messy. I was going off the assumption that the situation between Shark and Wheat excluded the possibility that both of them were telling the truth. Nobody at the time was aware that the rules allowed such a possibility.
Dagger's clarifying post came one minute after what you call fearmongering. I had no idea when I wrote that post that we were all operating under a false assumption. My next post minutes after Dagger's basically throws all my analysis away.
Sigh. Notice a theme among my posts? I list all possibilities I see. Yes, I personally did not think scum would run a false investigation gambit. My mistake. I laid out my reasoning for it, though: I pointed out holes in the plan including one that would occur if Wheat was investigated as scum (the whole chaining investigations that Iso put forth).
True and false are absolutes. In between, though, there is a range of uncertainty. "Highly unlikely" means close to false. "Certainly possible" could mean close to truth, or it could mean "falls anywhere within the uncertainty spectrum." The second meaning was what I meant.
It's just how I roll. Take a look at my past games and you'll find the same thing. I don't really place people on any sort of scale between town and scum. At some point I'll put you into a camp, but until then you're all just in one bit group called "Undecided."
What you call Wheat defense I call trying to point out that we all made a mistake acting on a false assumption about how the game works.
Tell me, what part of that was untrue? If you don't spend your coins or send them to somebody else the mafia can guarantee your kill for just one coin. Look, you may not like the truth, but if the rules of the game dictate that one particularly strategy can be really bad then it needs to be pointed out as such.
s/pool/bank/
I was talking about how coins that the bank pays out are worth a different amount comparatively between scum and town. At no point am I addressing pooling coins on one or more players in this post. I do think the context of the conversation would make that apparent.
If you'd like to continue this discussion I'll be glad to do so after the game is done. The economics of this game heavily favor the scum in the early part. The town eventually comes to parity, and at the end to supremacy, concerning coin worth, but the beginning is skewed toward scum having more buying power.
Flip flop how? At that time our coins were worth a small fraction of the mafia's and our ability to coordinate was not great (we had few indications of who is scum and who is town). What part of what I said was untrue? I did state before that our coins will increase in relative value.
Refer back to uncertainty spectrum. Notice how I keep couching my statements with words like "most likely", "unlikely", etc.? It's because I understand that a good part of this game will take place in the uncertainty spectrum. I never said it was impossible that Wheat was scum running a gambit; I said it was unlikely. I was wrong, but I never said Wheat was absolutely town.
Who know why I did this post? Because the plan hinged on the mafia not having the vig shot. If we pooled our coins on two players and both were NK'd that night we'd have lost then and there. I was making my best attempt at determining whether or not the vig shot was in play. My suggestion was because, as my analysis shows, everything hinged on no townie giving away a coin D1. That's why I asked. If anybody had given away a coin D1 then everything would change. I'm a computer science major and I like to work with all the variables being known.
Uncertainty spectrum and I made a mistake!.
Absolutely. If the mafia had the vig shot that night we wouldn't even be playing now. Somebody had to make everybody aware that the plan did have a not insignificant possibility of backfiring.
Did you bother to read Caex's response? He admits that he didn't look at context.
All three of these I'll address at once. This all goes back to my reluctance to go forward with the plan if there is a good chance that the mafia can buy the vig shot. You even ask the mod a question about if we'll know the vig shot has been purchased. You can't act like you're appalled that I dare question going forth with the plan when at the same time you were cautious yourself.
So pointing out contradictions is scummy?
I'm not buddying pinky. I'm providing more evidence that Fox was aware of the plan at that point and couldn't then say she wasn't aware what the plan was.
You know what theme I sensing in the pbpa? That you apparently had some issues with how was I playing but didn't bother to talk about them until now? It's like you started this pbpa with the assumption that I'm scum and then have twisted everything to make it appear as though I am scum. That's not how it is supposed to work. This post in particular should have absolutely no scum vibes.
I'm suggesting we bucket everybody to find liars later. If that scummy behavior that townie tactics must consist of pulling names out of a hat.
What the ****? How the **** do you get that from this post? Let me requote this for everybody to see:
How in the world do you get that I'm trying to setup a mislynch of zindabad here? I'm asking zindabad for more information to confirm whether or not what he said was true. That's called investigation!
At this point I'm tired of wasting my time to further respond to your pbpa. You definitely composed this thing with the intention to show I'm scum instead of doing it to determine I'm scum. You are ignoring context, history, and common sense. You are construing things in a way to "show" that I'm scum instead of analyzing the posts. This is a lazy pbpa that can't even be called analysis.
You started with the assumption that every mention of Wheat was an ironclad defense instead of a mistake born of a rules misunderstanding and an assumption against an unlikely possibility. You are condemning me for playing cautiously and trying to work out possibilities. None of that makes sense.
[card=Jace Beleren]Jace[/card] = Jace
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
I've reduce the possibilities of scumteam for:
a)AE and Fox (most likely)
b)AE and Nis (much less likely)
Anyway we know AE is scum. Btw I have another thing I noticed thing that can implicate AE, it's Caex coins by time of death. We know for a fact Caex started with less than 2 coins, because he has not participated of D2 fight about the investigation (remember both WG and Shark bidded 2 coins and disputed the investigation, if Caex had 2 coins he would have participated in this issue too).
What we know:
So he must have gained at least another 1 or 2 coins before dying. AE claims he gave him 1 coin therefore if two or more people claim to have given coins to him, AE is a proven liar (again :p) or Caex would have died with more than 3 coins. Unfortunately PB didn't give any coin to Caex, does any of you have given Caex coins? including the night he died, because coins are given before NK.
----
@Zinda The reason you can't be scum with AE (and Fox too) is because of this post:
This post happened when we were still trying to clear the coin situation between Fox and AE. When the dichotomy between the two appeared people were still directing the cop to another guys, when the 100% correct choice was to inspect Fox or AE because of the things you said. Therefore if you was scum with them opening town eyes would be totally wrong, because you would ensure that, no matter what happened on the night, one of your buddies would be lynched the next day, this play would make no sense from a scum POV and you would never make the mistake of ensuring a scum lynch when you could have simply stayed silent about the situation and let town cop elsewhere. Therefore the logical conclusion is that you cannot be scum with either AE or Fox, because of this you are now 90% cleared.
I thought you would say something pro-town but looks like I was wrong after reading your last post. Anyway, let me reveal something important for town.
Since DRey has not hammered Nis, if he's scum he can only be scum with Nis or else he would have hammered and won already.
I think we are pretty near confirming my towniness, and that's why Fox unvoted, she noticed it and hoped no one notice, but it's too late. It's now a fact that if I'm scum, Fox and AE are town. And since I've showed again and again it's pretty much certain AE is scum, and very likely Fox is too.
KNOWN FACTS
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
4 days remaining.
~~~
Votecount
Nis (2) - Archmage Eternal, greymon90210
Archmage Eternal (1) - Nis
It takes 4 to Lynch with 6 alive.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
My Lord, it is as thus:
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
*probably* in lylo? PROBABLY in lylo, but how could you not be aware that we are...in fact...in lylo?
(I do however agree that AE needs to pay more attention to this game and or post more)
So only everyone else has the ability to be wrong except me...got it. For the record, I am still trying to do something weather you like it or not. Ignoring it all doesn't make it go away it just makes you look bad.
I think the general idea is, at least in my opinion was "everyone hey look at these posts" and then sitting back and letting the shenanigans proceed as the town point fingers and cast suspicion on each other. By not wanting to *express* your opinion it's as if you don't want to be put in the spotlight to be challenged on it. Which is what any sort of what any analysis does...it puts you in the spotlight. Right or wrong. You will have to defend it.
Again, you have only proven that he was following the plan. You never proved, and I doubt never will that he said "I am sending a coin to grey". As I mentioned previously, I thought it was a stupid idea to have someone who was supposed to SAVE coins to then SEND them. The whole thought of Shark sending a coin after I mentioned that wasn't really brought up again.
One of the things I noticed when reading last night (and it's in my analysis I believe) was Wheaties mentioning that the scum saying that the scum team basically have every reason to get the investigations AND vig shot. Which is a depressing thought. Because no, I don't know AE's alignment...But everyone (except you apparently) know we are in lylo. If the scum DO in fact have Vig shot now...we have a good chance of losing even if we lynch correctly today. So yeah, it's a rather depressing thought.
Wow...respect plummeted. That's like everyone in Vamp going Yeah there are totz 3 SK, a Vig AND A CULT...it's totally balanced!
Sorry, 2 scum team in a set up like this...not buying it, deflect more!
Psh, how could I hope no one noticed. It's not like you can edit posts. It's going to be there FOREVER (or at least as long as the forums survive). So...did you REALLY just claim scum?
OMG really??? You start off pushing this as fact and end up questioning it? Horrible. Simply horrible. You are flailing so hard now to get this lynch that you just cost you two the game.
You've done absolutly nothing of the sort but show your true colors.
I understand this now.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
Feel free to correct me on this DRey. I took it as him asking the mod if there is one scum left after today, which means we lynch scum today, can that scum both vig and NK someone. It seemed like a valid question to me.
So it looks like we've got camps well formed.
[card=Jace Beleren]Jace[/card] = Jace
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
I'm pretty sure that question was already answered previously as well...somewhere in the thread. It was also hinted at by Wheat when he placed in. I remember I mentioned it in my read through....though I just looked aaaand apparently not <sigh> grrrrr MSWord.
I'm at work so don't have my original....Basically, Wheat had mentioned in a post that the scum had every reason to get both the cop & vig shot. We know now that the scum *HAVE* gotten 2 of the investigations already. What I had said was that it was something of a depressing thought that if we mislynch town...we lose right then and there. If we lynch scum YAY!!! we don't auto lose and get an extra day to plan, but the scum will get the NK and Vig if they already have it. While not making the town auto lose, it puts us right back at lylo which is yes...a rather depressing thought.
AE has more experience than you I know he's not bad scum at since I've been scum with him myself, so I think you should stop trying to coach him :p. It's particular amusing you said like 2 days ago you were fine with a lynch on him but since Grey started pushing Nis and me you have no doubt AE is town. Exactly what happened with my and Zinda's read you had.
Of course everyone has the ability to be wrong but I lacked knowledge back there, I haven't previosly read the game and had just replaced in. You have been playing this since D1.
God, discussing with scum is tiring... Let's remember yesterDay plan.
a)Pinky creates a plan (she was a town read of Shark)
b)Shark agrees with the plan.
c)You try to deflate the plan (you were a scum read of Shark).
d)Pinky explains and try to convince you why the plan was good.
e)You don't argue anymore.
f)Shark confirms he's ready twice.
And you believe Shark still didn't follow the plan despite saying he would and never disagreeing with it? Like I said it's possible, but likely? Hell no.
So.. your response is this? AE has been constantly in your scum pile, yet you never voted him, pressured him, questioned him AND gave him a coin and you LAUGH?
Pointless fearmongering, if this game was already over scum would have claimed scum be lynched and won it already, we know scum don't have the vig because Dagger would have told us.
Are you seriously thinking I believe there's just one scum? After pushing both you and AE? Get real, you understand nothing.
I don't know if your reading skills are this lacking or you are just feigning stupidity. Anyway, learn to read.
@AE Cool man, I create 3 or 4 cases against you and you cherrypick the weakest of them to respond and hope no one notices? Not working sorry.
-----
You guys forgot masscoin claim, we need to guarantee the vig tomorrow at all costs. Considering we have just 4 townies we can only send 3 to one guy so he must have at least 2 already to guarantee the vig, so far me and Grey are eliminated from the possibility.
Nis and Zinda please say your coins.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
1 + 1 - 1 + 1 -1 = 1
I have 1 coin.
[card=Jace Beleren]Jace[/card] = Jace
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
@DRey - what you just said does not in fact make sense. You should remember that I REPLACED in for MirrorE since I complained that a lot of your early (weak) case was based on his lurkyness. So, I have not been here since day 1.
The laugh in response to giving AE coin, as I said, I do some crazy ****.
And the Vig shot hasn't actually been USED so I don't think Dagger would be posting it as yet (guessing).
Finally, I claimed my coins several posts ago.
Also apologies for not working on more analysis. It was actually busy at work yesterday and I'm likely getting sick...joy. I'll do what I can though.
2 days remaining.
~~~
Votecount
Nis (2) - Archmage Eternal, greymon90210
Archmage Eternal (1) - Nis
It takes 4 to Lynch with 6 alive.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
My availability will be low from now until Monday, so I'm going to vote now. Fox is my #1 pick for scum, but with 2 days left I'm not seeing it happening. Nis's behavior today has been scummy enough, as I mentioned in my last couple of posts, to allow me to settle for this, although I'm not 100% sold.
Vote Nis. Sorry if we lose because of this. Hope to see you tomorrow.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."