Just for the record, I didn't follow the plan that was in place on N2 but I was pretty vocal about my dislike of the N2 plan.
So you were vocal about your dislike of the plan and went to the night saying you would not do it? Or did you say you were doing it anyway despite not liking it (like Zinda said) and changed opinion after night started?
Hmm...interesting because I'm pretty sure I've nabbed scum as well, just by doing one reread of a player (1 down, 4 more to go....*sigh*)
Pray tell, who is your scum player at the moment?
I think one of them is Zinda and my reasons are simple, Zinda is on the tier1 players of the site. I don't remember him ever reaching lylo as town before and I played with him a lot of times. He's like a natural born cop, so scum must NK him at N1 or N2 or they will straight up lose on the spot. There was even one game he claimed to be bulletproof after being shot once and surviving and scum still gambled shooting him again the next night anyway because they knew they had no chance if he lived one more day.
And now knowing he's suspecting Pinky is just icing on the cake since I know for a fact Pinky is town. I have another suspect now but I want to hear more before talk about it further.
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
So you were vocal about your dislike of the plan and went to the night saying you would not do it? Or did you say you were doing it anyway despite not liking it (like Zinda said) and changed opinion after night started?
Fox did have misgivings about the plan with the reasoning that she believed we were pooling coins to get the vig shot. We had a little tiff over that. At no point, however, did she state she was not going to follow through with the plan N2 (although AE did hammer Iso before we were all ready for day to end).
Fox did have misgivings about the plan with the reasoning that she believed we were pooling coins to get the vig shot. We had a little tiff over that. At no point, however, did she state she was not going to follow through with the plan N2 (although AE did hammer Iso before we were all ready for day to end).
I don't remember asking any question for you, please refrain from answering questions directed for others as it's anti-town.
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
I don't remember asking any question for you, please refrain from answering questions directed for others as it's anti-town.
So you'd rather "investigate" without getting input from everybody? What purpose does that serve? If you'd like I can link to the bit between Fox and I so you can get what is written in stone (so to speak) instead of relying on recollections. I'm not trying to speak for Fox. I'm trying to provide salient information to your question. At not point did I claim to be speaking for Fox nor did I direct Fox not to answer.
So you were vocal about your dislike of the plan and went to the night saying you would not do it? Or did you say you were doing it anyway despite not liking it (like Zinda said) and changed opinion after night started?
I think one of them is Zinda and my reasons are simple, Zinda is on the tier1 players of the site. I don't remember him ever reaching lylo as town before and I played with him a lot of times. He's like a natural born cop, so scum must NK him at N1 or N2 or they will straight up lose on the spot. There was even one game he claimed to be bulletproof after being shot once and surviving and scum still gambled shooting him again the next night anyway because they knew they had no chance if he lived one more day.
And now knowing he's suspecting Pinky is just icing on the cake since I know for a fact Pinky is town. I have another suspect now but I want to hear more before talk about it further.
I was pretty vocal about how much I didn't like it, and eventually said that I wasn't planning on following it... twice just for clarification
So you'd rather "investigate" without getting input from everybody? What purpose does that serve? If you'd like I can link to the bit between Fox and I so you can get what is written in stone (so to speak) instead of relying on recollections. I'm not trying to speak for Fox. I'm trying to provide salient information to your question. At not point did I claim to be speaking for Fox nor did I direct Fox not to answer.
I'm not saying you shouldn't speak your mind or anything like that, but you can perfectly do that after she answers. I'm not trying to implicate you or anything (since I know nothing about you) but it's certainly better for everyone that the first one to answer questions is the one that got asked. I could detail more but hopefully It's not a hard concept to understand.
TLDR: I do want recollections from you, from her, from everyone else plus I want to read the original posts myself to extract my own opinion, everything is game but let's respect the natural order that is: the one that was asked answers first.
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
I was pretty vocal about how much I didn't like it, and eventually said that I wasn't planning on following it... twice just for clarification
Ok, that means everyone knew the plan would not work, considering this I suppose the plan was tweaked to accomodate that... was it?
On the other hand if you were adamant against the plan I expect you to give town another avenue of attack (another plan) did you do that? And if you lost the discussion haven't cross your mind the idea of following the plan anyway?
Anyway what are the conclusions about the N2 and N3 plans (btw this is a question to everyone)?
From Zinda's post (and that has nothing to do with my read of him) I know Greymon is confirmed town because he investigated scum on lylo that's good I want to hear more from him. I suggest everyone to reread putting extra weight in confirmed town posts and extra attention on Wheat's interactions, particularly if he has a town/scum list (those are normally gold mines).
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
I said the same thing about rereads, and I'm doing it but I have another week where I only have Friday off of work so it's going very slowly.
DRey, please don't chastise people right after replacing in. You're replacing someone who is a top scum suspect for at least a couple of the players, and it is coming across as anti-town to me.
I suggest you take your own advice and reread each player as there are only 6 of us left (I'm counting you because you should reread Pinky as well) and highlight stuff that you see. I've already done that, and depending on what I find I'm gonna be making a case by next sunday hopefully.
Anyway what are the conclusions about the N2 and N3 plans (btw this is a question to everyone)?
It was somewhat successful because we did win the investigation that night. However, because AE ended D2 early zindabad was not able to send in a coin. Fox sent a coin to AE instead of to greymon or Caex. pinky (you) did not send a coin at all. Since 3 people didn't send coins correctly we weren't able to bucket everybody into two camps which would have helped later on.
N3 plan has been significantly better. AE deviated and sent a coin to greymon instead of Shark, but we do that it's very likely that two people in the Shark pool are lying.
Ok, that means everyone knew the plan would not work, considering this I suppose the plan was tweaked to accomodate that... was it?
On the other hand if you were adamant against the plan I expect you to give town another avenue of attack (another plan) did you do that? And if you lost the discussion haven't cross your mind the idea of following the plan anyway?
Anyway what are the conclusions about the N2 and N3 plans (btw this is a question to everyone)?
From Zinda's post (and that has nothing to do with my read of him) I know Greymon is confirmed town because he investigated scum on lylo that's good I want to hear more from him. I suggest everyone to reread putting extra weight in confirmed town posts and extra attention on Wheat's interactions, particularly if he has a town/scum list (those are normally gold mines).
I don't understand that question...can you rephrase it?
I can't speak for everyone else. But as you'll see in your full read, I was considered just a "fearmonger" trying to get the town to do away with the plan. I can't say that everyone ELSE thought the plan wouldn't work. D2 was pretty damn frustrating for me.
pinky ultimately came up with the N3 plan which I felt was more straight forward. In my opinion, regardless of if I trusted pinky or not, the fact that everyone said at the start who they were sending coins to closed a big loophole to me.
And no @ planning. First, I'm not a great strategist and all my ideas tend to run counter to what "normal" mafia strategy dictates (so it seems). Add to that, I was/am high on almost everyones scum list and anything I said was to be taken with extreme prejudice. I felt I could have come up with the perfect plan and I felt it would have been blown off.
N2 plan...short version...clusterduck. Hard to imagine a scum willingly giving a coin away. Zindy also says he forgot because he was on v/la, but he did log in to make a post. Sending a coin takes less time than typing a post. Could be a good excuse because he already sent one (same with pinky). In short, grey only confirmed 2 coins. Potentially Nis and a scum
N3 plan...as I said elsewhere, I don't understand why Zindy and AE thought grey was the likely target. In my mind Shark would be since he would have the most coins (making GoC pay out quicker). Making AE not follow the plan more suspicious to me. grey confirmed he got my coin. Based on my math, I am assuming that the last 2 scum are in the group of 4.
@ grey - personally, I don't mind DRey's questioning because it gets him caught up faster...along with his reading I hope
@Nis - You stated N3 incorrectly. AE sent to Shark who was the NK. He was supposed to send to grey (just like I was).
N2 plan...short version...clusterduck. Hard to imagine a scum willingly giving a coin away. Zindy also says he forgot because he was on v/la, but he did log in to make a post. Sending a coin takes less time than typing a post. Could be a good excuse because he already sent one (same with pinky). In short, grey only confirmed 2 coins. Potentially Nis and a scum
This is inaccurate. I did not say I "forgot." I was planning to send, but AE hammered early, despite many players saying we should wait for me to confirm that I had sent.
I also wasn't wild about "hard to imagine a scum willingly giving a coin away." No, it isn't. Scum do pro-town things to look good all the time. kpaca didn't just throw his teammate under the bus in Seasons, he hurled him down there at mach 3. I could maybe overlook this dubious statement if you didn't try to hog town credit in your next paragraph...
N3 plan...as I said elsewhere, I don't understand why Zindy and AE thought grey was the likely target. In my mind Shark would be since he would have the most coins (making GoC pay out quicker). Making AE not follow the plan more suspicious to me. grey confirmed he got my coin. Based on my math, I am assuming that the last 2 scum are in the group of 4.
I just said why I thought grey was the obvious choice. Because he was confirmed town who was also bidding for the cop investigation, versus Shark, who was not confirmed.
Also, as I said above, "grey confirmed he got my coin" does little for me. grey's coins were public knowledge, and if the scum were killing Shark, they'd know exactly how many coins they would need to guarantee winning the last cop bid. If they had the magic number, they wouldn't need excess, and could follow the plan to look good.
***
As for "he's still alive," it's a bad argument at any point because it's WIFOM, but it's even worse here because scum pinky had a good reason for leaving me alive, which is that NKing me after dodging my attacks would look horrible for her. She had to trust that she would be able to beat me in the daytime, once the cop investigations were used up and there was no chance of her eating one. So yeah, I reject that line of attack pretty much out of hand. My content has been solid throughout the game, I've been pro-town since I got into this game, and I defy anyone to prove differently.
This is inaccurate. I did not say I "forgot." I was planning to send, but AE hammered early, despite many players saying we should wait for me to confirm that I had sent.
I also wasn't wild about "hard to imagine a scum willingly giving a coin away." No, it isn't. Scum do pro-town things to look good all the time. kpaca didn't just throw his teammate under the bus in Seasons, he hurled him down there at mach 3. I could maybe overlook this dubious statement if you didn't try to hog town credit in your next paragraph...
Factually, you are correct. My implication which was ALSO directed at pinky (which is why I said "I forgot"...I was lumping you two together) was that you at least, did indeed log in on vacation to make a post. Yet in that time you could not take the time to send a coin. Which takes LESS time. While yes, AE could have and should have waited another day for the hammer, the fact that you took the time to log in and post BUT NOT SEND A COIN is suspicious to me. That was my point.
Hahahaha! Hog town cred...you got to be f'ing kidding me? Are there awards or prizes for town cred I wasn't aware of somewhere? Oh wait, I'll just look for the line with the scum in it
Yes, I realize scum do pretty odd (in my mind) stuff for town cred...and I'll take your word on kpaca in seasons, I never could get into reading that game. So, yes, the thought of the scum *willingly* giving away a coin to the town was strange.
I just said why I thought grey was the obvious choice. Because he was confirmed town who was also bidding for the cop investigation, versus Shark, who was not confirmed.
Also, as I said above, "grey confirmed he got my coin" does little for me. grey's coins were public knowledge, and if the scum were killing Shark, they'd know exactly how many coins they would need to guarantee winning the last cop bid. If they had the magic number, they wouldn't need excess, and could follow the plan to look good.
But you are OK with me saying grey confirmed Nis's coin on N2? Why?
His coins weren't *exactly* public knowledge. The plan was public knowledge. I was only cross referencing when someone sends a coin and when grey confirms receipt as proof that person "A" was telling the truth. I threw Wheaties in there, because as I said before, you can't trust that 100% but it's something.
We agree to disagree then. I know you and DRey are uber players and all, but to me he just didn't seem like the logical choice. I know *normal* mafia theory would say NK the confirmed town but this isn't a normal (to me anyway) game since it's an open set up. In my mind, it pushes the logical choice to Shark.
Did you even stop to think why grey was alive after N2 when Caex bit it? He was CONFIRMED town at that point AND bidding for the cop investigation. It is exactly the same scenario as N3 except grey and Shark. So either grey is scum or you are trying to sell us beach front property in the desert BESIDES grey having little or no coins (which makes stuff happen in this game) It makes your entire point that grey would be the night choice...illogical to me.
You even state that if the scum were NK Shark (which they did OBVIOUSLY) they would know about how many coins to get the last cop bid. I think this was pretty easy information to get just based on the what is in the thread.
Factually, you are correct. My implication which was ALSO directed at pinky (which is why I said "I forgot"...I was lumping you two together) was that you at least, did indeed log in on vacation to make a post. Yet in that time you could not take the time to send a coin. Which takes LESS time. While yes, AE could have and should have waited another day for the hammer, the fact that you took the time to log in and post BUT NOT SEND A COIN is suspicious to me. That was my point.
I didn't understand what the rush was. There was no deadline, no caught scum, no reason to fire off my coin while I was away. Surely it could've waited until I got back.
Hahahaha! Hog town cred...you got to be f'ing kidding me? Are there awards or prizes for town cred I wasn't aware of somewhere? Oh wait, I'll just look for the line with the scum in it
Yes. It's the award of not getting lynched. That's an award that scum usually try to win.
But you are OK with me saying grey confirmed Nis's coin on N2? Why?
Because you're commenting from the outside. If Nis tried to talk about how grey confirming the latter got a coin from him made him town, I'd be suspicious too.
We agree to disagree then. I know you and DRey are uber players and all, but to me he just didn't seem like the logical choice. I know *normal* mafia theory would say NK the confirmed town but this isn't a normal (to me anyway) game since it's an open set up. In my mind, it pushes the logical choice to Shark.
That's fine. I'm not asking you to agree, I'm stating why I thought greymon was the obvious choice, which is what I got asked in the first place.
Did you even stop to think why grey was alive after N2 when Caex bit it? He was CONFIRMED town at that point AND bidding for the cop investigation. It is exactly the same scenario as N3 except grey and Shark. So either grey is scum or you are trying to sell us beach front property in the desert BESIDES grey having little or no coins (which makes stuff happen in this game) It makes your entire point that grey would be the night choice...illogical to me.
Because grey hadn't investigated Wheat as scum yet on N2, and thus wasn't confirmed?
You even state that if the scum were NK Shark (which they did OBVIOUSLY) they would know about how many coins to get the last cop bid. I think this was pretty easy information to get just based on the what is in the thread.
Still rereading, but I admit it's getting difficult with all this content continually being added. I'm somewhat convinced that Zindy is town, and aside from that everyone is kind of up in the air, all though at this point I do have two top suspects, one of which I've already analyzed the other of which is going to take some time. In the meantime, why is A_E still Lurky McLurkerson?
I didn't understand what the rush was. There was no deadline, no caught scum, no reason to fire off my coin while I was away. Surely it could've waited until I got back.
There wasn't a rush. Frankly, its the fact that we HADN'T caught scum that keeps this in my mind.... to me...It makes me wonder WHY you didn't send the coin.
Basically, what I'm saying is, from my POV. *IF* you are indeed town, you were trusting 3 scum and the rest of the town to wait until you got back from vacation so you could send a coin. How does that make sense?
Because you're commenting from the outside. If Nis tried to talk about how grey confirming the latter got a coin from him made him town, I'd be suspicious too.
I didn't say "grey getting a coin from me/Nis = town". It's why I specifically mentioned Wheat. Just because grey recieved a coin, doesn't auto confirm anyone as town...Obviously! It just means the stories line up
How would you like me to comment? I can try to RP like I did in Vamp, but that got messy quick
Because grey hadn't investigated Wheat as scum yet on N2, and thus wasn't confirmed?
Are you saying, that until grey actually investigated Wheat (scum) you didn't entirely trust the investigation results? What if grey had investigated a townie, would he still be confirmed in your eyes?
@Dagger this deadline was because of the time or the fact that scum paid the money? If it was because of the time I think it's unfair because PB has requested replacement like a week ago and I need to reread a whole game that's probably in lylo. In this case I request at least the time since PB was away and I joined the game to be added to the deadline.
@town In my rereads I noticed how many people requested replacements and that's makes my reread much harder (thankfully I'm experimenting scumdar to balance this, thanks Nis!) and so far Artifice and Albus are my two biggest scumreads (yeah I know Albus is town) ME and AE have done nothing so far. Poggy is being Poggy and it's surprising to know he flipped scum.
@Nis There's a bug with scumdar and Auto Pager (another chrome plugin that I use to greatly hasten/helps rereads on mafia) I don't know if it's fixable in your end but I would apreciate if you could take a look on it.
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Quick phone post, but I'm guessing that someone (ie. scum) mobilized the guard. I went and read the front page and it said that "anyone" can spend 3 coins on calling the guard. I'm guessing it's because either you and or grey are on to someone....or the scum are just worried
The curious thing was that Dagger hinted at the guards being called PRIOR to this (I think at sharks lynch?) I can check later when I'm actually at a computer unless someone finds it first.
Things I've thought about and that we can discuss before I finish my reread.
a)There are good players on this scumteam, this town was solid and we were put on lylo without killing at least one scum. That's not very informative since all players that are left are good imho.
b)Scum has no reason to ever give coins to town, they can agree to give coins to town on the day, but there's no way for them to seriously do that (and don't even bring the "but they could have been trying to WIFOM the town" because it's such a risky and awful play the chances of those things happening are almost null).
c)Scum can only coordinate one coin move per player meaning they have limited time to to pool all coins on one guy, that's strengthens "B" since giving coins to town not only makes it harder for them to get powers but even if they kill the guy they have sent the coins they get less coins they have gave therefore a total lose proposition for them.
Considering this premisses I think we can analyse Shark flip and the coins we get at least a very good chance of nailing scum. Another thing I've been thinking about is of we should all coins to greymon hoping to get the vig. I havent really stop to analyse the odds but depending on the situation even if we miss todays him having enough coins to vig and protect himself we can live for another day in case we hit scum.
Certainly scum won't give coins to him but hopefully the rest of the coins from the town are enough for this plan (is this already public information? can I talk about it openly?), if we follow this I think we should try to create a real dichotomy from wo players here so if we miss on the lynch Greymon knows exactly who is scum and will shoot acordingly.
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
@Fox: I'm thinking it was scum that did it too, because I'm about 95% sure I've nabbed one of them, and i'm 2/5 with rereads so it's coming along.
This is interesting though, because I think I figured something else out too. If you go back and look at when I first announced that WG was scum, his first post was a facepalm smiley. I think all the scum had donated their coins to him, which was why we haven't seen them buy the vig shot yet. It's been nagging at me why they haven't done it this whole time, and now I'm pretty sure that's why.
@DRey: That plan seems good, but I'm going to have to spend an extra coin on the Dark Brotherhood to ensure that I don't die overnight, and if the scum haven't used the Holy Tabernacle yet all they have to do is pay 1 coin and I'll do no matter what, so we need to think about it a little bit. We have 12 days so plenty of time to get rereads in.
I'm just going to say that with the deadline in place, I'm going to focus my efforts in this game on rereading. You might see me active in other games, but I won't be as active in this one until I'm done.
@Dagger this deadline was because of the time or the fact that scum paid the money? If it was because of the time I think it's unfair because PB has requested replacement like a week ago and I need to reread a whole game that's probably in lylo. In this case I request at least the time since PB was away and I joined the game to be added to the deadline.
Trigger 2: During Day, an amount of days has passed equal to the number of living players X 2. Effect: Either trigger will impose a 12-day deadline for the current Day phase. This deadline is absolute.
I fear there is little I can do at this point of time. The ability to impose or negate such a deadline is beyond my power.
@Fox: I'm thinking it was scum that did it too, because I'm about 95% sure I've nabbed one of them, and i'm 2/5 with rereads so it's coming along.
As Dagger confirmed it was indeed the scum...which I find...puzzling. We know now that they spend coins to steal the cop investigation (just so town wouldn't get it). We also now know they just just spend 3 coins to call the guards.
I went back and checked...I wasn't dreaming. There WAS a hint that the guards were going to be called here when DRey placed in on the 9th. Then of course, the guards actually being called, today (on the 12th). So...for some reason Dagger (or the scum!?) gave us a warning that the guards would be called. I double checked the City Watch and it doesn't mention anything about a "grace" period prior to the guards being called. So I'm not sure what to make of that.
As Dagger confirmed it was indeed the scum...which I find...puzzling. We know now that they spend coins to steal the cop investigation (just so town wouldn't get it). We also now know they just just spend 3 coins to call the guards.
3. The City Watch ~Guards! Guards! Trigger 1: During Day, any player may give 3 tokens to The City Watch. Trigger 2: During Day, an amount of days has passed equal to the number of living players X 2. Effect: Either trigger will impose a 12-day deadline for the current Day phase. This deadline is absolute. Deadline Imposed: Yes Days Left: 12
(Italics, Underlining, and Color change mine to show emphasis)
Nice job trying to mislead us about the number of coins the scum have...Dagger didn't confirm that they bought it, he confirmed that 12 days have passed so the City Watch was automatically triggered. That sounds like a huge slip to me, because it seemed like you wanted us to believe that the scum had paid for that...
This changes a lot...what does everyone else think?
a)There are good players on this scumteam, this town was solid and we were put on lylo without killing at least one scum. That's not very informative since all players that are left are good imho.
b)Scum has no reason to ever give coins to town, they can agree to give coins to town on the day, but there's no way for them to seriously do that (and don't even bring the "but they could have been trying to WIFOM the town" because it's such a risky and awful play the chances of those things happening are almost null).
c)Scum can only coordinate one coin move per player meaning they have limited time to to pool all coins on one guy, that's strengthens "B" since giving coins to town not only makes it harder for them to get powers but even if they kill the guy they have sent the coins they get less coins they have gave therefore a total lose proposition for them.
Considering this premisses I think we can analyse Shark flip and the coins we get at least a very good chance of nailing scum. Another thing I've been thinking about is of we should all coins to greymon hoping to get the vig. I havent really stop to analyse the odds but depending on the situation even if we miss todays him having enough coins to vig and protect himself we can live for another day in case we hit scum.
Certainly scum won't give coins to him but hopefully the rest of the coins from the town are enough for this plan (is this already public information? can I talk about it openly?), if we follow this I think we should try to create a real dichotomy from wo players here so if we miss on the lynch Greymon knows exactly who is scum and will shoot acordingly.
1. I'd say at least one of not both of the remaining members of the scumteam are experienced (good) players.
2. Dunno what to say here. What their plan was. Wheat is a nice guy, but a bad scum. They could have set him up as a fall guy early as the weakest link to fall. We *do* know he won the investigation @ 2 coin bid. We also know he claimed to have given grey 1 coin (which grey claimed to possibly receive...I say possibly because if not, it's unclaimed). Basically, hey...if this works for town points...GREAT, if not, oh well!
3. This, I agree as I've been thinking the same thing. I'm guessing they have been pooling the coins on the "least" scummy since the start of the game. As an example, if AE is scum, do you REALLY think since he's so lurky, they would be pooling the coins on him given the reasonably high chance of being investigated? Unless of course they planned on stealing the last investigation from the start.
EBWOP - @ grey - Because this entire time I was reading that as that the scum had paid for the guards. I didn't notice that Dagger had cropped off the "Trigger 1". It worried me since I was wondering WTF the scum were planning on doing since they were spending coins like it was Christmas (if that was the case) So yes, I stand corrected, put me in the cone of shame
Also, at your Wheaties face palm thing, I was going to address it. He only died with one coin, so they weren't sending to him. Which I mentioned briefly above...I dunno if it was a town cred/ploy or what. But they definitely weren't sending him the coins.
This is interesting though, because I think I figured something else out too. If you go back and look at when I first announced that WG was scum, his first post was a facepalm smiley. I think all the scum had donated their coins to him, which was why we haven't seen them buy the vig shot yet. It's been nagging at me why they haven't done it this whole time, and now I'm pretty sure that's why.
This theory is so far fetched I even lost a bit of respect on you (sorry). So just because WG used a facepalm smiley that probably means scum pooled all their coins on him? Do you realize this theory has no basis on reality right?
Nice job trying to mislead us about the number of coins the scum have...Dagger didn't confirm that they bought it, he confirmed that 12 days have passed so the City Watch was automatically triggered. That sounds like a huge slip to me, because it seemed like you wanted us to believe that the scum had paid for that...
I think you are reading too much into it, stupidity is not a scumtell. Do you seriously believe Fox tried to mislead us when the truth was right in front of our eyes? Do you believe this "plan" could have worked? Because when I read Dagger's post I instanly understood scum had not spent any coins.
This changes a lot...what does everyone else think?
This changes nothing to me, from this day happenings Fox is one of the towniest reads for me, she's posting a lot, looks like she's actively trying to solve the puzzle and is not afraid of questions. I still have much to reread but if I were to choose my scumteam atm it would be Zinda (reasons already explained) and AE (because he's actively trying to not do anything and he managed to not do anything in two weeks, he's also voting on lylo and that's baaaad) and it's not even close.
In fact I just thought about something, are we sure we are on lylo? Nis does have a vote on him for more than a week, if this is really lylo maybe that confirm him as town because scum could have already mislynched him.
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
We also know he claimed to have given grey 1 coin (which grey claimed to possibly receive...I say possibly because if not, it's unclaimed). Basically, hey...if this works for town points...GREAT, if not, oh well!
Humm this contradicts one of my premisses...
@Grey has WG really gave you a coin? There's zero chance of that coin be from the townie that died on that day and maybe the following situation happened:
Grey: Ok I received a coin last night, anyone wants to claim it?
A: not me
B:neither me
... (everyone but WG claims and he seizes the opportunity since he realizes it must have come from the dead townie)
WG: it was me that gave you a coin
3. This, I agree as I've been thinking the same thing. I'm guessing they have been pooling the coins on the "least" scummy since the start of the game. As an example, if AE is scum, do you REALLY think since he's so lurky, they would be pooling the coins on him given the reasonably high chance of being investigated? Unless of course they planned on stealing the last investigation from the start.
Was WG really that obvious? He replaced PD right? Because from my rereads so far I sense little scuminess from Poggy so I don't think he replaced into a bad spot.
Also, at your Wheaties face palm thing, I was going to address it. He only died with one coin, so they weren't sending to him. Which I mentioned briefly above...I dunno if it was a town cred/ploy or what. But they definitely weren't sending him the coins.
So that's known information? Ironic.
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Wheat is a nice guy, but a bad scum. They could have set him up as a fall guy early as the weakest link to fall. We *do* know he won the investigation @ 2 coin bid.
We know some scum won that investigation. Most likely it was Wheat given how little coins he had when he died, but the coins for that investigation could have come from any scum member. We know the scum are -2 coins because of that. We also know they are -X coins for winning the investigation last night. How many coins did you bid last night greymon? We might be able to estimate how many coins they have left.
We also know he claimed to have given grey 1 coin (which grey claimed to possibly receive...I say possibly because if not, it's unclaimed). Basically, hey...if this works for town points...GREAT, if not, oh well!
That was never figured out. Both Wheat and I claimed to have sent a coin to greymon N2 and greymon claimed to have received 2 coins. I do think Wheat or some other scum sent a coin to greymon that night because the only other possibility was Caex. Caex died with 5 coins. We had two people claim to send him a coin. That leaves him with 3 which is certainly possible on D2 (start with 2, bank paid out 1). Starting with 4 coins D2 was highly unlikely so I don't think Caex gave greymon a coin N2. The possibilities are that some scum actually gave greymon a coin or one of zindabad or pinky sent a coin to greymon and lied about it.
What would be the town reasoning for giving a coin to greymon and lying about it? None. What would be the scum reasoning for the same? None, unless greymon is scum, which I have already said cannot be the case.
No, I say again, the odds all point to at least some scum "going along with the plan" and giving coins to townies. I told you guys about how they had the advantage all along in terms of coordination. They will have known how many coins they needed to keep at all times in order to win what they wanted to win - I mean, scum have now won 2 of the 3 investigations available. It makes sense that they would spend coins that didn't necessarily figure into their plans on making themselves look good/giving themselves alibis.
@Fox: Yes, I am saying that greymon was not confirmed until he copped Wheat as scum. I feel like this is a pretty basic point, and I don't think you're unexperienced enough to miss it, so again I wonder whether we're just having a breakdown in communication or whether you are deliberately being obtuse.
At this point you have zero going for you, to be quite blunt, except that I'm 100% sure DRey is scum and I'm not 100% sure that you are.
I'm planning a major re-read over the long weekend. We still have time to do what needs doing today, so let's pick up the pace a bit. I'd like to hear about greymon's analysis too, even if it isn't fully finished yet.
@Grey has WG really gave you a coin? There's zero chance of that coin be from the townie that died on that day
All we know for *certain* is that someone else besides Nis gave grey a coin. As my coin argument with AE demonstrated the only time you get a PM is when you get a coin from a player. When someone dies (and the GoC pays out) you don't get a PM, you just have to mentally add one to your known total.
So, the going assumption is Wheaties because he claimed it, but as Nis just recently mentioned again it can't actually be PROVED.
Was WG really that obvious? He replaced PD right? Because from my rereads so far I sense little scuminess from Poggy so I don't think he replaced into a bad spot.
I wasn't going off Poggy since I had just finished a game with Poggy and I have to agree with you there. That is to say, for me, poggy himself was mostly a null tell. In short, it was of Wheat himself. I knew the godzilla reference that Iso and Wheaties where talking about (ie godzilla = town) and a few of the other comments they tossed back and forth were enough to spark my attention, that was about it really. Nothing really super concrete I guess you could say.
So that's known information? Ironic.
Yep. Whenever someone gets lynched (or otherwise dies) Dagger poststheir coin count as well as if the Guild of Coins pays out (so you have to keep your own count).
It's somewhat helpful on being able to estimating coins, where they went, stuff like that. But as you might have noticed a lot of times it gets bogged down by assumptions and theories
No, I say again, the odds all point to at least some scum "going along with the plan" and giving coins to townies. I told you guys about how they had the advantage all along in terms of coordination. They will have known how many coins they needed to keep at all times in order to win what they wanted to win - I mean, scum have now won 2 of the 3 investigations available. It makes sense that they would spend coins that didn't necessarily figure into their plans on making themselves look good/giving themselves alibis.
Well, not to sound like an idiot again...but doh. Of course they have more coordination. They had N0 to start coordinating, they also already know the town's plans because we have no other option except to talk in the thread AND the scum can change their plans around that.
@Fox: Yes, I am saying that greymon was not confirmed until he copped Wheat as scum. I feel like this is a pretty basic point, and I don't think you're unexperienced enough to miss it, so again I wonder whether we're just having a breakdown in communication or whether you are deliberately being obtuse.
No, I'm not being deliberately obtuse. I understand what you are saying perfectly. I just feel like while YOU think this is a "basic" point, I don't and would like you to actually answer my question.
To put it in a different way, townies don't know who each other are...the chances of grey investigating town are much higher than nabbing scum. So, if grey investigated someone and got town, would you still think he was "confirmed". Especially given the "swingy" (IMO) way this set up is, in which case you have to bid for investigations and grey might not have EVER been able to prove/confirm a scum investigation.
Would your opinion have been different if grey had been investigated by someone who was really town (or had flipped town) vs a known scum?
At this point you have zero going for you, to be quite blunt, except that I'm 100% sure DRey is scum and I'm not 100% sure that you are.
Zero going for me in what way? You know something about me I don't?
The problem I have with your comment of "100% sure DRey is scum" was I'm pretty sure you said something similar to that about Iso So forgive me if I lack faith in you at the moment.
I'm halfway so far, I'm compiling all the votes and interaction with dead scum but I'm afraid my data will be too late so let's work with we have as considering we have little time so we need to solve things asap.
Now that it has come to my attention that the vig must be obtained in the day my plan is certainly to fail but there's no doubt we have to coordinate now or we will lose (scum will get the vig too), considering scum already obtained 2 cop shots I'm considering they have little to no money so they have no coins for a vig shot today (or we are doomed anyway).
New plan is the following: everyone gives coin to the towniest that's not greymon, this way we will force scum to decide between NK confirmed town greymon or the one with most money I think that's the best outcome.
I know the risks we run since giving money to unconfirmed is not wise but if we don't coordinate we will lose anyway so we have to risk it. The time to be conservative is over, we have to gamble and die trying or go home without trying.
My second idea is that we should massclaim coins usage and stuff again a big risk, big rewards play. I can expand on this if necessary.
Ok, let's vote three things, the towniest of it all (excluding yourself), if we should do a massclaim and the top two scum.
a)Foxlet (very townie in my reread, is actively trying to help things now, her reads mirror mine)
b)Yes to massclaim
c)AE and Zinda
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I'm pretty sure about AE being scum at this point, I was scum with him before and everything points to him being scum.
a)actively lurking (AE lurks as town too, but he at least tries to do something when town, here is acively trying to not do anything nor create anymosity with players)
b)He's posting on other threads while purposely avoid this one.
c)Quick to vote on lylo (AE is experienced enough to know that's bad)
d)hopping biggest wagons without reasons.
e)EP is one of the players that know AE very well, in the end of D1 I noticed he got suspitious of AE and he ended up dying in the night before contining the pressure on the next day. AE and EP have played countless matches together so they can read each other pretty well. When I was scum with AE I remember he wanting to NK EP because he was afraid EP could unmask him, I think this is what happened here since EP was far from a big force D1, considering by many as scummy (SF investigated him for example) and bloodthirsty.
f)Excluding AE and Zinda I don't think the other players in this game enough have knowledge about EP to consider him a threat.
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Anyway it doesn't hurt to present my unfinished data so far. (as of post #480).
Interactions with dead scum(WG/PD)
DRey (replacing pinkys_brain) 6
Iso 6
Caex 4
Albus 2
Shark 1
EP 0
Nis (replacing Wrath_of_DoG) 0
zindabad (replacing Artifice 101) 0
greymon90210 (replacing Arnnaria) 0
Foxlet (replacing MirrorEntity) 0
AE 0
Scum usually have difficulty talking with each other so they avoid it. Of course I'm biased but this puts me in a very confortable position as PB was one of the players that pressured WG most. It's also to be of note that Zinda, Nis, Greymon and Fox has just joined the game so they have limited opportunity to interact with WG. EP also died on N1.
total unique votes cast/votes on scum
DRey (replacing pinkys_brain) 5/1
Iso 4/0
Caex 5/1
Albus 3/1
Shark 4/1
EP 2/0
Nis (replacing Wrath_of_DoG) 2/0
zindabad (replacing Artifice 101) 2/0
greymon90210 (replacing Arnnaria) 2/0
Foxlet (replacing MirrorEntity) 0/0
AE 3/0
The most interesting thing is that AE has never voted on scum so far despite voting two different townies (shark 2x, albus 1x).
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
@grey why do you think zinda is town? also can you post your reads so far? you said like a week ago you were sure someone is scum but haven't expanded on that, there's no reason to delay the discussion of your findinds.
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After reading until Iso's death and seeing Zinda's behavior I'm now sure he's scum. It matches perfectly to his scum game and Artifice's too, Artifice tends to tunnel as town so when he's scum he tries to emulate his style by choosing a player to tunnel, the difference is that when he's town he has actual reasons and he pushes hard. Scum Artifice just randomly chooses a player and keep saying he's scum without much elaboration, that's what he did here about Iso.
Also how can someone not see PB is the towniest of the town? It's certainly impossible townZinda to be this wrong about everything. And PB polay was suberb on this game, she noticed WG was scum early and that's certainly not busing she was pushing him hard. She also noticed Artifice and Zinda soon and pressured AE.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
BIRD'S EYE ANALYSIS OF WHEAT/POGGY
==========================
I have analysed all post from WG, here's the count of quotes and questions he asks another players.
QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ Iso (dead)
QQQQQQQQQ PB
QQQQQQ Caex (dead)
QQQQQQ Shark (dead)
QQQ Nis
Q EP (dead)
Q Albus (dead)
Q Fox
Q greymon
Q Zinda
X AE
It's well-documented that scum have a harder time talking with their scumbuddies than townies.
WG did talk a lot, particularly with Iso as he was one of the main pushers on his wagon, considering the results the metodology is pretty good, WG/PD focused mostly questioning, commenting with townies. Unfortunately WG talked very little with all low guys but he completely ignored AE another thing we can get from this is that this completely clears PB and therefore me. Yeah I know I'm biased, sue me.
More next...
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Here are the total posts of suspects. Nis has triple interactions with WG but he has much more posts than the others so it's kinda null, AE has even more posts than Zinda and Grey (that's surprising since I don't remember AE doing anything) yet he has ZERO interactions with WG.
Here's WG only T/S post
Arnnaria: Mod-confirmed town
Caex Kothar: Town - He's posting all kinds of content despite being a noob. I'm certain that he would have scumslipped by now if he was scum. Plus his posts have a decent amount of insight.
Iso: Leaning Town - He seemed town in my mind during the reread, can't remember why but I'll go with it for now.
ArchmageEternal: Leaning Town - He sounds like the town AE I've played with in other games.
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Zindabad: Hard neutral - I am terrible at reading Art, and since he's no longer in the game I'm not even going to try. Hopefully I'll develop a read on Zindabad later today.
Nis: Soft neutral - post more
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SharkFinnigan: Scum - Active lurking.
Pinkys_brain: Hard neutral - Seemed town until that weird vote/unvote on Albus. I'm not sure how I feel about it. I can't decide if it was just paranoia that Albus would flip town, or trying to get townie points by not being on a mislynch that was pretty much going to happen anyway, but having to get back on because of pressure.
MirrorEntity: Soft neutral - post more
I've changed the "places" of the guys according to this commentary here.
If you had to put a gun to my head for the other two scum right now, I'd probably say PB for the weird votes and MirrorEntity for the lurking. I'm thinking Nis will be a town-read as the day goes on, and Zindabad could go either way. If I get a scum read on him he'd replace MirrorEntity on my 'Most Likely Scumteam' list.
It's also well-documented scum likes to "spread" their buddies in different places. One as town, one as scum, other as neutral if possible. From his scumlist we know Shark is confirmed town and I'm confirmed town (to myself) so there's just Fox there. In the middle ground there's both Zinda and Nis, this makes unlikely WG, Zinda and Nis are part of the same scumteam. Again AE is on a bad spot because he's the only townread that isn't confirmed so far, plus his reasons for clearing AE are bougus because I don't remember he playing much games with AE, if at all, (correct me if wrong AE) plus his read on PB is because of her weird votes ( what about AE weird votes?) and ME lurking (how ME is a suspect for lurking but AE is not?).
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Again things look bad for AE, he has managed to cast 4 votes (a number kinda kinda high for a heavy lurker like him) yet zero on scum, not even on the WG wagon that was the easiest for scum to join early. Nis also managed to not cast a vote on scum ever. It's also of note that Fox has cast just one vote the whole game and Nis just one. Considering their high number of posts that's kinda intriguing...
@Fox, Nis any reason for being so shy on your votes? ALso I want example of town and scum games of both of you. kthanksbye.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
From all this data my picks for scumteams are one of those:
Zinda, AE (unlikely, will explain tomorrow)
Nis, Zinda (I can see this, the main problem with this is that AE must be town also WG t/S list make this unlikely)
AE, Nis (if I had to bet, this would be my pick today)
AE, Fox (mostly because she gave him a coin, that sit reaaaaally bad with me, give a coin to one of your scumreads? really fox? it's also of note scum has gained two investigations so far)
From my rereads I have reasons to suspect any of those guys plus grey, it could be a bad scum gambit after all, but if Grey is scum we will anyway so I eliminated this possibility. I will create "cases" on each one tomorrow.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Now that it has come to my attention that the vig must be obtained in the day my plan is certainly to fail but there's no doubt we have to coordinate now or we will lose (scum will get the vig too), considering scum already obtained 2 cop shots I'm considering they have little to no money so they have no coins for a vig shot today (or we are doomed anyway).
I'm to tired to math at the moment, but I think even with them gaining the second investigation they could have the Vig shot tomorrow (ie the same time the town does). Which would be when after the next GoC pays out.
I think there was talk of lylo before. With a total of 4-2 but UNKNOWN STATUS OF VIG SHOT...it's best to play it as such. The scum could be waiting to push an incorrect lynch on a town before smacking us with the vig shot. Boom, we lose.
New plan is the following: everyone gives coin to the towniest that's not greymon, this way we will force scum to decide between NK confirmed town greymon or the one with most money I think that's the best outcome.
Given that the GoC only needs 2 coins now to reach pay out, it won't really matter at this point who they target it so long as they kill someone. In my opinion, if they had they option of screwing the town AND having the GoC pay out vs killing a "confirmed" town and having the GoC pay out...I think I know which one I would choose (and it isn't killing the confirmed town)
My second idea is that we should massclaim coins usage and stuff again a big risk, big rewards play. I can expand on this if necessary.
I would like to have you expand on that since we know the scum are going to lie about coins, what do you hope to accomplish?
Ok, let's vote three things, the towniest of it all (excluding yourself), if we should do a massclaim and the top two scum.
I'm oK with a masscoin claim after you expand on your details. Scumspect info below.
Here's WG only T/S post
I've changed the "places" of the guys according to this commentary here.
It's also well-documented scum likes to "spread" their buddies in different places. One as town, one as scum, other as neutral if possible. From his scumlist we know Shark is confirmed town and I'm confirmed town (to myself) so there's just Fox there. In the middle ground there's both Zinda and Nis, this makes unlikely WG, Zinda and Nis are part of the same scumteam. Again AE is on a bad spot because he's the only townread that isn't confirmed so far, plus his reasons for clearing AE are bougus because I don't remember he playing much games with AE, if at all, (correct me if wrong AE) plus his read on PB is because of her weird votes ( what about AE weird votes?) and ME lurking (how ME is a suspect for lurking but AE is not?).
As for scum...I wouldn't say that the scumlist is telling...I think it would depend on where Wheaties tended to put his scumbuddies in a T/S list in general. When I played with Iso in Trisk he had both his buddies as scum most of the time and bussed them pretty hard as well from what I recall. That way when we lynched one and they turned up scum he got town cred
I think part of the problem with Wheat's commentary which you probably noticed (you copied it) was in this. It's been discussed frequently. In short the "I'm thinking Nis will be a town-read as the day goes on". Also, pinky gets a "weird vote" comment, but not Nis? Same with ME but not AE with the lurking?
Also, I can *possibly* see the comment about AE since at the time I placed in this game had only one game experience with AE and he was NK on D1 He was pretty lurky and posted infrequently (and also had a counting PR), however I wouldn't have just slotted him town based on that. It could just be his playstyle.
@Fox, Nis any reason for being so shy on your votes? ALso I want example of town and scum games of both of you. kthanksbye.
Short answer, I only vote for people when I'm ready to see them claim or lynched. More of a personal thing really. I've gotten in several "arguments" about it because I think the voting trail, while it CAN give you information in the case of my unfortunate demise, most people know that and vote indiscriminately....especially scum, so they like to muddy the waters
Ck my blog...most recent town game completed was Vampires Only scum game is currently ongoing and I had to replace out due to personal issues.
From all this data my picks for scumteams are one of those:
Zinda, AE (unlikely, will explain tomorrow)
Nis, Zinda (I can see this, the main problem with this is that AE must be town also WG t/S list make this unlikely)
AE, Nis (if I had to bet, this would be my pick today)
AE, Fox (mostly because she gave him a coin, that sit reaaaaally bad with me, give a coin to one of your scumreads? really fox? it's also of note scum has gained two investigations so far)
Yeah, I know, I know. It seemed like a good idea at the time, and I said why. I just figured he would be the likely investigation target.
So right now your main preferences is either Nis/Zindy or either Nis/AE?
I'm sure you will go into it later, but why is your theory of the t/s list and AE being town make less likely?
I'll add more tomorrow cause, yeah this has taken too long as it is
@Fox, Nis any reason for being so shy on your votes? ALso I want example of town and scum games of both of you. kthanksbye.
I tend to be vote shy. Not really sure why but I vote mainly when I feel confident that somebody is scum. Occasionally I'll vote to pressure somebody, but that's restricted to D1 and mostly for lurkers or fence-sitters.
As for town/scum games:
Stuff I Like Mafia - most recent town game but I did absolutely awful. First game after a few years and I let a forced no lynch demoralize me.
Joss Whedon Mafia - scum and lynched D1. Couldn't help myself and claimed watcher. I was Giles after all.
Afterlife - town bodyguard. Took a bullet for the cop N2. Not a great game because my house was hit by Snowmageddon soon after the game started.
What we discern from these posts. AE had already "sent" his coins according to the plan (he never said he was against the plan after all), after WG is lynched there's no way to cancel his courier because the action was already sent, therefore he can't have a change of heart at night ("man, this plan is not good, greymon will be NKed, I'm better not following the plan so I can fool the scum, I'm so smart") because at that point it's too late for that. Shark was townie, knew greymon was townie, had no reason to lie, and agreed to the plan thousand times, therefore it's safe to say shark sent his coin before dying. Remember the courier gives teh coin before night actions happens, this also explain his low money when dying.
THE "ACTUAL" RESULT
Nis: Shark
zindabad: Shark
pinky: Shark
AE: Shark
Fox: greymon
Let's try to deduce Shark's coins once more with feeling.
Shark started with 2 coins.
He gave Caex 1 coin on N2 because he felt he was towniest. -1
He gave Greymon 1 coin N3 according to the plan. -1
He gave Greymon 1 coin N4 according to the plan. -1
He received 2 coins from the guild of coins. +2
TOTAL: 1
Since his bid on the cop failed we know he had just 1 coin excluding last night happenings. Therefore Shark received 3 coins last night because he died with 4 coins. There's no need for crazy assumptions, bids on protection by Shark or something strange at all, everything is on the thread for everyone to see.
4 people said they gave coins to Shark, one of them is lying. 2 People said they gave coin to Greymon, one of them is lying. Fortunately one of the guys that gave Greymon the coin has just died and flipped town, meaning he's telling the truth and Foxlet is scum. But what about the other guy that should have sent his money to Greymon and didn't? What's the real reason he didn't? TO PROTECT FOX LIE AND MAKE IT LOOKS LIKE SHE DID SEND THE MONEY TO GREYMON WHEN THE REALITY IS THAT BOTH OF THEM DIDN'T SEND THE COINS FOR TOWN BECAUSE THEY ARE SCUM.
TLDR: Game is over, it's Fox and AE, AE needs to go first because scum have been pooling money on him all game.
Things of note:
-Fox had AE as a suspect the whole thread, but she gave him a coin because he would be inspected or killed anyway therefore his coin would come back to town eventually. This reasoning is crap!! Why would town risk giving money to their scumspect hoping it eventually come back to town since themselves are town? If you want the coin to come back to town, just don't send it! Why risk? This makes no sense from a town POV because she would be giving money away to get it back later.
-AE killed EP because he was suspecting him and EP can read him well.
-Fox is constanly trying to downplay Greymon confirmed town status ("maybe he was gambitting with Wheat", "remember Wheat said Greymon was town, both could be buddies")
-Fox has not cast even a vote on the whole thread, her only vote was on WG and just because he was confirmed scum anyway. I reread her town games and she casts votes normally there, I counted like 6 votes on Triskelion when I started counting, Nis on the other hand really disliked to cast votes as town in Things I Like, I think he just cast 2 votes the whole game as town.
Shark suspected AE and Fox, he also said he would be investigating one of them last night, therefore he had to be silenced.
---
I'm ready to vote AE, and let's ignore the vig shot, I want everyone tonight to use protection meaning scum must spend coins to kill us, reducing their money we will prevent them from getting enough money for the vig anyway.
@AE, Fox the game is over, if you guys want to concede to speed things up it will be awesome, I want to join other games.
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Let's wait for the others young grasshopper, maybe someone has a plan for the night or something to add. But I think the game is effectivelly over. Feeling good with myself.
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The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
I'm willing to go with that. I will note that AE never said he had sent his coin according to the plan but only that he had sent his coin.
Yep, this is even more telling, everyone was waiting for confirmation on the coins sent, we were discussing this in depth, if AE wasn't really reading (I can see he making this argument) he had no reason to give coins randomly.
It would go like that.
TOWN: Ok, let's follow the plan, everyone gives coin to their targets and confirm here.
AE: What coins? Give coins to whom? What you guys talking about?
TOWN: there's a plan go read the thread and confirm you sent your coins.
AE:Ah, ok.
Therefore he would have no excuse to not give coins to greymon or at least he should try to fight the plan back, not a good proposion for scum since the plan was very pro-town.
Instead it was like this.
TOWN: Ok, let's follow the plan, everyone gives coin to their targets and confirm here.
AE: Ok, coin sent.
TOWN: Ok, hammer time.
He preemptively did not said he has ever agreed to the plan nor that he has sent the coin according to the plan, meaning he never wanted to send the coin in the first place, but wanted to let his options open so he could discuss with Fox on the mafiaQT what they both should claim next day to better explain both of them not giving coins to town.
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The game is not being dumbed down. Control is doing fine; Draw-Go is not the only kind of control. Aggro is doing fine; Red Deck Wins is not the only kind of aggro. Creature combat is an important core concept and belongs in every color. Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
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Hmm...interesting because I'm pretty sure I've nabbed scum as well, just by doing one reread of a player (1 down, 4 more to go....*sigh*)
Pray tell, who is your scum player at the moment?
I think one of them is Zinda and my reasons are simple, Zinda is on the tier1 players of the site. I don't remember him ever reaching lylo as town before and I played with him a lot of times. He's like a natural born cop, so scum must NK him at N1 or N2 or they will straight up lose on the spot. There was even one game he claimed to be bulletproof after being shot once and surviving and scum still gambled shooting him again the next night anyway because they knew they had no chance if he lived one more day.
And now knowing he's suspecting Pinky is just icing on the cake since I know for a fact Pinky is town. I have another suspect now but I want to hear more before talk about it further.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Fox did have misgivings about the plan with the reasoning that she believed we were pooling coins to get the vig shot. We had a little tiff over that. At no point, however, did she state she was not going to follow through with the plan N2 (although AE did hammer Iso before we were all ready for day to end).
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
So you'd rather "investigate" without getting input from everybody? What purpose does that serve? If you'd like I can link to the bit between Fox and I so you can get what is written in stone (so to speak) instead of relying on recollections. I'm not trying to speak for Fox. I'm trying to provide salient information to your question. At not point did I claim to be speaking for Fox nor did I direct Fox not to answer.
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
I was pretty vocal about how much I didn't like it, and eventually said that I wasn't planning on following it... twice just for clarification
You are gonna hate me then However I do try to work on that
TLDR: I do want recollections from you, from her, from everyone else plus I want to read the original posts myself to extract my own opinion, everything is game but let's respect the natural order that is: the one that was asked answers first.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
On the other hand if you were adamant against the plan I expect you to give town another avenue of attack (another plan) did you do that? And if you lost the discussion haven't cross your mind the idea of following the plan anyway?
Anyway what are the conclusions about the N2 and N3 plans (btw this is a question to everyone)?
From Zinda's post (and that has nothing to do with my read of him) I know Greymon is confirmed town because he investigated scum on lylo that's good I want to hear more from him. I suggest everyone to reread putting extra weight in confirmed town posts and extra attention on Wheat's interactions, particularly if he has a town/scum list (those are normally gold mines).
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
DRey, please don't chastise people right after replacing in. You're replacing someone who is a top scum suspect for at least a couple of the players, and it is coming across as anti-town to me.
I suggest you take your own advice and reread each player as there are only 6 of us left (I'm counting you because you should reread Pinky as well) and highlight stuff that you see. I've already done that, and depending on what I find I'm gonna be making a case by next sunday hopefully.
It was somewhat successful because we did win the investigation that night. However, because AE ended D2 early zindabad was not able to send in a coin. Fox sent a coin to AE instead of to greymon or Caex. pinky (you) did not send a coin at all. Since 3 people didn't send coins correctly we weren't able to bucket everybody into two camps which would have helped later on.
N3 plan has been significantly better. AE deviated and sent a coin to greymon instead of Shark, but we do that it's very likely that two people in the Shark pool are lying.
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
I don't understand that question...can you rephrase it?
I can't speak for everyone else. But as you'll see in your full read, I was considered just a "fearmonger" trying to get the town to do away with the plan. I can't say that everyone ELSE thought the plan wouldn't work. D2 was pretty damn frustrating for me.
pinky ultimately came up with the N3 plan which I felt was more straight forward. In my opinion, regardless of if I trusted pinky or not, the fact that everyone said at the start who they were sending coins to closed a big loophole to me.
And no @ planning. First, I'm not a great strategist and all my ideas tend to run counter to what "normal" mafia strategy dictates (so it seems). Add to that, I was/am high on almost everyones scum list and anything I said was to be taken with extreme prejudice. I felt I could have come up with the perfect plan and I felt it would have been blown off.
N2 plan...short version...clusterduck. Hard to imagine a scum willingly giving a coin away. Zindy also says he forgot because he was on v/la, but he did log in to make a post. Sending a coin takes less time than typing a post. Could be a good excuse because he already sent one (same with pinky). In short, grey only confirmed 2 coins. Potentially Nis and a scum
N3 plan...as I said elsewhere, I don't understand why Zindy and AE thought grey was the likely target. In my mind Shark would be since he would have the most coins (making GoC pay out quicker). Making AE not follow the plan more suspicious to me. grey confirmed he got my coin. Based on my math, I am assuming that the last 2 scum are in the group of 4.
@ grey - personally, I don't mind DRey's questioning because it gets him caught up faster...along with his reading I hope
@Nis - You stated N3 incorrectly. AE sent to Shark who was the NK. He was supposed to send to grey (just like I was).
Bah. Fingers moving too fast for brain.
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
This is inaccurate. I did not say I "forgot." I was planning to send, but AE hammered early, despite many players saying we should wait for me to confirm that I had sent.
I also wasn't wild about "hard to imagine a scum willingly giving a coin away." No, it isn't. Scum do pro-town things to look good all the time. kpaca didn't just throw his teammate under the bus in Seasons, he hurled him down there at mach 3. I could maybe overlook this dubious statement if you didn't try to hog town credit in your next paragraph...
I just said why I thought grey was the obvious choice. Because he was confirmed town who was also bidding for the cop investigation, versus Shark, who was not confirmed.
Also, as I said above, "grey confirmed he got my coin" does little for me. grey's coins were public knowledge, and if the scum were killing Shark, they'd know exactly how many coins they would need to guarantee winning the last cop bid. If they had the magic number, they wouldn't need excess, and could follow the plan to look good.
***
As for "he's still alive," it's a bad argument at any point because it's WIFOM, but it's even worse here because scum pinky had a good reason for leaving me alive, which is that NKing me after dodging my attacks would look horrible for her. She had to trust that she would be able to beat me in the daytime, once the cop investigations were used up and there was no chance of her eating one. So yeah, I reject that line of attack pretty much out of hand. My content has been solid throughout the game, I've been pro-town since I got into this game, and I defy anyone to prove differently.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
Factually, you are correct. My implication which was ALSO directed at pinky (which is why I said "I forgot"...I was lumping you two together) was that you at least, did indeed log in on vacation to make a post. Yet in that time you could not take the time to send a coin. Which takes LESS time. While yes, AE could have and should have waited another day for the hammer, the fact that you took the time to log in and post BUT NOT SEND A COIN is suspicious to me. That was my point.
Hahahaha! Hog town cred...you got to be f'ing kidding me? Are there awards or prizes for town cred I wasn't aware of somewhere? Oh wait, I'll just look for the line with the scum in it
Yes, I realize scum do pretty odd (in my mind) stuff for town cred...and I'll take your word on kpaca in seasons, I never could get into reading that game. So, yes, the thought of the scum *willingly* giving away a coin to the town was strange.
But you are OK with me saying grey confirmed Nis's coin on N2? Why?
His coins weren't *exactly* public knowledge. The plan was public knowledge. I was only cross referencing when someone sends a coin and when grey confirms receipt as proof that person "A" was telling the truth. I threw Wheaties in there, because as I said before, you can't trust that 100% but it's something.
We agree to disagree then. I know you and DRey are uber players and all, but to me he just didn't seem like the logical choice. I know *normal* mafia theory would say NK the confirmed town but this isn't a normal (to me anyway) game since it's an open set up. In my mind, it pushes the logical choice to Shark.
Did you even stop to think why grey was alive after N2 when Caex bit it? He was CONFIRMED town at that point AND bidding for the cop investigation. It is exactly the same scenario as N3 except grey and Shark. So either grey is scum or you are trying to sell us beach front property in the desert BESIDES grey having little or no coins (which makes stuff happen in this game) It makes your entire point that grey would be the night choice...illogical to me.
You even state that if the scum were NK Shark (which they did OBVIOUSLY) they would know about how many coins to get the last cop bid. I think this was pretty easy information to get just based on the what is in the thread.
I didn't understand what the rush was. There was no deadline, no caught scum, no reason to fire off my coin while I was away. Surely it could've waited until I got back.
Yes. It's the award of not getting lynched. That's an award that scum usually try to win.
Because you're commenting from the outside. If Nis tried to talk about how grey confirming the latter got a coin from him made him town, I'd be suspicious too.
That's fine. I'm not asking you to agree, I'm stating why I thought greymon was the obvious choice, which is what I got asked in the first place.
Because grey hadn't investigated Wheat as scum yet on N2, and thus wasn't confirmed?
Exactly my point.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
There wasn't a rush. Frankly, its the fact that we HADN'T caught scum that keeps this in my mind.... to me...It makes me wonder WHY you didn't send the coin.
Basically, what I'm saying is, from my POV. *IF* you are indeed town, you were trusting 3 scum and the rest of the town to wait until you got back from vacation so you could send a coin. How does that make sense?
I didn't say "grey getting a coin from me/Nis = town". It's why I specifically mentioned Wheat. Just because grey recieved a coin, doesn't auto confirm anyone as town...Obviously! It just means the stories line up
How would you like me to comment? I can try to RP like I did in Vamp, but that got messy quick
Are you saying, that until grey actually investigated Wheat (scum) you didn't entirely trust the investigation results? What if grey had investigated a townie, would he still be confirmed in your eyes?
I know. Busy ass weekend plus three games going is not helping. Will get to it.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
Nis (1) - Archmage Eternal
It takes 4 to Lynch with 6 alive.
~~~
Guards! Guards!
Feet thumped.
Shields glittered.
Spearheads brandished.
People hiding.
Cowering.
Wary.
The City Watch had mobilized.
The tension was too great.
The temper was too short.
When the nobles warred, the small folks suffered.
And a Kingdom in such heightened state is a prelude to chaos.
Order must be maintained.
Curfew enforced.
Peace imposed.
And there is none other than the City Watch able to do just that.
~~~
The City Watch has imposed an absolute deadline.
12 days remaining.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
@town In my rereads I noticed how many people requested replacements and that's makes my reread much harder (thankfully I'm experimenting scumdar to balance this, thanks Nis!) and so far Artifice and Albus are my two biggest scumreads (yeah I know Albus is town) ME and AE have done nothing so far. Poggy is being Poggy and it's surprising to know he flipped scum.
@Nis There's a bug with scumdar and Auto Pager (another chrome plugin that I use to greatly hasten/helps rereads on mafia) I don't know if it's fixable in your end but I would apreciate if you could take a look on it.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
The curious thing was that Dagger hinted at the guards being called PRIOR to this (I think at sharks lynch?) I can check later when I'm actually at a computer unless someone finds it first.
a)There are good players on this scumteam, this town was solid and we were put on lylo without killing at least one scum. That's not very informative since all players that are left are good imho.
b)Scum has no reason to ever give coins to town, they can agree to give coins to town on the day, but there's no way for them to seriously do that (and don't even bring the "but they could have been trying to WIFOM the town" because it's such a risky and awful play the chances of those things happening are almost null).
c)Scum can only coordinate one coin move per player meaning they have limited time to to pool all coins on one guy, that's strengthens "B" since giving coins to town not only makes it harder for them to get powers but even if they kill the guy they have sent the coins they get less coins they have gave therefore a total lose proposition for them.
Considering this premisses I think we can analyse Shark flip and the coins we get at least a very good chance of nailing scum. Another thing I've been thinking about is of we should all coins to greymon hoping to get the vig. I havent really stop to analyse the odds but depending on the situation even if we miss todays him having enough coins to vig and protect himself we can live for another day in case we hit scum.
Certainly scum won't give coins to him but hopefully the rest of the coins from the town are enough for this plan (is this already public information? can I talk about it openly?), if we follow this I think we should try to create a real dichotomy from wo players here so if we miss on the lynch Greymon knows exactly who is scum and will shoot acordingly.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Albus (7) - Iso, Emo_Pinata, Archmage Eternal, Arnnaria [greymon90210], Caex Kothar, pinkys_brain [DRey], Nis
Caex Kothar (1) - Albus
Not voting (4) - SharkFinnigan, poggydude [Wheat_Grinder], Mirror Entity [Foxlet], Artifice 101 [zindabad]
Iso lynch (10 alive)
Iso (6) - Wheat_Grinder, Caex Kothar, zindabad, greymon90210, SharkFinnigan, Archmage Eternal
Wheat_Grinder (2) - pinkys_brain [DRey], Iso
Not Voting (2) - Nis, Foxlet
Albus lynch (8 alive)
Wheat_Grinder (5) - Wheat_Grinder, Foxlet, SharkFinnigan, zindabad, pinkys_brain [DRey]
Not Voting (3) - Nis, Archmage Eternal, greymon90210
Not sure how much help this will be, but it doesn't hurt to put it out there. We haven't yet had a lynch were there had to be scum on the wagon.
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
This is interesting though, because I think I figured something else out too. If you go back and look at when I first announced that WG was scum, his first post was a facepalm smiley. I think all the scum had donated their coins to him, which was why we haven't seen them buy the vig shot yet. It's been nagging at me why they haven't done it this whole time, and now I'm pretty sure that's why.
@DRey: That plan seems good, but I'm going to have to spend an extra coin on the Dark Brotherhood to ensure that I don't die overnight, and if the scum haven't used the Holy Tabernacle yet all they have to do is pay 1 coin and I'll do no matter what, so we need to think about it a little bit. We have 12 days so plenty of time to get rereads in.
I'm just going to say that with the deadline in place, I'm going to focus my efforts in this game on rereading. You might see me active in other games, but I won't be as active in this one until I'm done.
12 days remaining.
~~~
Votecount
Nis (1) - Archmage Eternal
It takes 4 to Lynch with 6 alive.
My Lord, it was the following:
I fear there is little I can do at this point of time. The ability to impose or negate such a deadline is beyond my power.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
As Dagger confirmed it was indeed the scum...which I find...puzzling. We know now that they spend coins to steal the cop investigation (just so town wouldn't get it). We also now know they just just spend 3 coins to call the guards.
I went back and checked...I wasn't dreaming. There WAS a hint that the guards were going to be called here when DRey placed in on the 9th. Then of course, the guards actually being called, today (on the 12th). So...for some reason Dagger (or the scum!?) gave us a warning that the guards would be called. I double checked the City Watch and it doesn't mention anything about a "grace" period prior to the guards being called. So I'm not sure what to make of that.
As for the rest, checking on that shortly.
(Italics, Underlining, and Color change mine to show emphasis)
Nice job trying to mislead us about the number of coins the scum have...Dagger didn't confirm that they bought it, he confirmed that 12 days have passed so the City Watch was automatically triggered. That sounds like a huge slip to me, because it seemed like you wanted us to believe that the scum had paid for that...
This changes a lot...what does everyone else think?
1. I'd say at least one of not both of the remaining members of the scumteam are experienced (good) players.
2. Dunno what to say here. What their plan was. Wheat is a nice guy, but a bad scum. They could have set him up as a fall guy early as the weakest link to fall. We *do* know he won the investigation @ 2 coin bid. We also know he claimed to have given grey 1 coin (which grey claimed to possibly receive...I say possibly because if not, it's unclaimed). Basically, hey...if this works for town points...GREAT, if not, oh well!
3. This, I agree as I've been thinking the same thing. I'm guessing they have been pooling the coins on the "least" scummy since the start of the game. As an example, if AE is scum, do you REALLY think since he's so lurky, they would be pooling the coins on him given the reasonably high chance of being investigated? Unless of course they planned on stealing the last investigation from the start.
EBWOP - @ grey - Because this entire time I was reading that as that the scum had paid for the guards. I didn't notice that Dagger had cropped off the "Trigger 1". It worried me since I was wondering WTF the scum were planning on doing since they were spending coins like it was Christmas (if that was the case) So yes, I stand corrected, put me in the cone of shame
Also, at your Wheaties face palm thing, I was going to address it. He only died with one coin, so they weren't sending to him. Which I mentioned briefly above...I dunno if it was a town cred/ploy or what. But they definitely weren't sending him the coins.
This theory is so far fetched I even lost a bit of respect on you (sorry). So just because WG used a facepalm smiley that probably means scum pooled all their coins on him? Do you realize this theory has no basis on reality right?
I think you are reading too much into it, stupidity is not a scumtell. Do you seriously believe Fox tried to mislead us when the truth was right in front of our eyes? Do you believe this "plan" could have worked? Because when I read Dagger's post I instanly understood scum had not spent any coins.
This changes nothing to me, from this day happenings Fox is one of the towniest reads for me, she's posting a lot, looks like she's actively trying to solve the puzzle and is not afraid of questions. I still have much to reread but if I were to choose my scumteam atm it would be Zinda (reasons already explained) and AE (because he's actively trying to not do anything and he managed to not do anything in two weeks, he's also voting on lylo and that's baaaad) and it's not even close.
In fact I just thought about something, are we sure we are on lylo? Nis does have a vote on him for more than a week, if this is really lylo maybe that confirm him as town because scum could have already mislynched him.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
@Grey has WG really gave you a coin? There's zero chance of that coin be from the townie that died on that day and maybe the following situation happened:
Was WG really that obvious? He replaced PD right? Because from my rereads so far I sense little scuminess from Poggy so I don't think he replaced into a bad spot.
So that's known information? Ironic.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
We know some scum won that investigation. Most likely it was Wheat given how little coins he had when he died, but the coins for that investigation could have come from any scum member. We know the scum are -2 coins because of that. We also know they are -X coins for winning the investigation last night. How many coins did you bid last night greymon? We might be able to estimate how many coins they have left.
That was never figured out. Both Wheat and I claimed to have sent a coin to greymon N2 and greymon claimed to have received 2 coins. I do think Wheat or some other scum sent a coin to greymon that night because the only other possibility was Caex. Caex died with 5 coins. We had two people claim to send him a coin. That leaves him with 3 which is certainly possible on D2 (start with 2, bank paid out 1). Starting with 4 coins D2 was highly unlikely so I don't think Caex gave greymon a coin N2. The possibilities are that some scum actually gave greymon a coin or one of zindabad or pinky sent a coin to greymon and lied about it.
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
No, I say again, the odds all point to at least some scum "going along with the plan" and giving coins to townies. I told you guys about how they had the advantage all along in terms of coordination. They will have known how many coins they needed to keep at all times in order to win what they wanted to win - I mean, scum have now won 2 of the 3 investigations available. It makes sense that they would spend coins that didn't necessarily figure into their plans on making themselves look good/giving themselves alibis.
@Fox: Yes, I am saying that greymon was not confirmed until he copped Wheat as scum. I feel like this is a pretty basic point, and I don't think you're unexperienced enough to miss it, so again I wonder whether we're just having a breakdown in communication or whether you are deliberately being obtuse.
At this point you have zero going for you, to be quite blunt, except that I'm 100% sure DRey is scum and I'm not 100% sure that you are.
I'm planning a major re-read over the long weekend. We still have time to do what needs doing today, so let's pick up the pace a bit. I'd like to hear about greymon's analysis too, even if it isn't fully finished yet.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
All we know for *certain* is that someone else besides Nis gave grey a coin. As my coin argument with AE demonstrated the only time you get a PM is when you get a coin from a player. When someone dies (and the GoC pays out) you don't get a PM, you just have to mentally add one to your known total.
So, the going assumption is Wheaties because he claimed it, but as Nis just recently mentioned again it can't actually be PROVED.
I wasn't going off Poggy since I had just finished a game with Poggy and I have to agree with you there. That is to say, for me, poggy himself was mostly a null tell. In short, it was of Wheat himself. I knew the godzilla reference that Iso and Wheaties where talking about (ie godzilla = town) and a few of the other comments they tossed back and forth were enough to spark my attention, that was about it really. Nothing really super concrete I guess you could say.
Yep. Whenever someone gets lynched (or otherwise dies) Dagger posts their coin count as well as if the Guild of Coins pays out (so you have to keep your own count).
It's somewhat helpful on being able to estimating coins, where they went, stuff like that. But as you might have noticed a lot of times it gets bogged down by assumptions and theories
Well, not to sound like an idiot again...but doh. Of course they have more coordination. They had N0 to start coordinating, they also already know the town's plans because we have no other option except to talk in the thread AND the scum can change their plans around that.
No, I'm not being deliberately obtuse. I understand what you are saying perfectly. I just feel like while YOU think this is a "basic" point, I don't and would like you to actually answer my question.
To put it in a different way, townies don't know who each other are...the chances of grey investigating town are much higher than nabbing scum. So, if grey investigated someone and got town, would you still think he was "confirmed". Especially given the "swingy" (IMO) way this set up is, in which case you have to bid for investigations and grey might not have EVER been able to prove/confirm a scum investigation.
Would your opinion have been different if grey had been investigated by someone who was really town (or had flipped town) vs a known scum?
Zero going for me in what way? You know something about me I don't?
The problem I have with your comment of "100% sure DRey is scum" was I'm pretty sure you said something similar to that about Iso So forgive me if I lack faith in you at the moment.
8 days remaining.
~~~
Votecount
Nis (1) - Archmage Eternal
It takes 4 to Lynch with 6 alive.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
Now that it has come to my attention that the vig must be obtained in the day my plan is certainly to fail but there's no doubt we have to coordinate now or we will lose (scum will get the vig too), considering scum already obtained 2 cop shots I'm considering they have little to no money so they have no coins for a vig shot today (or we are doomed anyway).
New plan is the following: everyone gives coin to the towniest that's not greymon, this way we will force scum to decide between NK confirmed town greymon or the one with most money I think that's the best outcome.
I know the risks we run since giving money to unconfirmed is not wise but if we don't coordinate we will lose anyway so we have to risk it. The time to be conservative is over, we have to gamble and die trying or go home without trying.
My second idea is that we should massclaim coins usage and stuff again a big risk, big rewards play. I can expand on this if necessary.
Ok, let's vote three things, the towniest of it all (excluding yourself), if we should do a massclaim and the top two scum.
a)Foxlet (very townie in my reread, is actively trying to help things now, her reads mirror mine)
b)Yes to massclaim
c)AE and Zinda
---
I'm pretty sure about AE being scum at this point, I was scum with him before and everything points to him being scum.
a)actively lurking (AE lurks as town too, but he at least tries to do something when town, here is acively trying to not do anything nor create anymosity with players)
b)He's posting on other threads while purposely avoid this one.
c)Quick to vote on lylo (AE is experienced enough to know that's bad)
d)hopping biggest wagons without reasons.
e)EP is one of the players that know AE very well, in the end of D1 I noticed he got suspitious of AE and he ended up dying in the night before contining the pressure on the next day. AE and EP have played countless matches together so they can read each other pretty well. When I was scum with AE I remember he wanting to NK EP because he was afraid EP could unmask him, I think this is what happened here since EP was far from a big force D1, considering by many as scummy (SF investigated him for example) and bloodthirsty.
f)Excluding AE and Zinda I don't think the other players in this game enough have knowledge about EP to consider him a threat.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Interactions with dead scum(WG/PD)
DRey (replacing pinkys_brain) 6
Iso 6
Caex 4
Albus 2
Shark 1
EP 0
Nis (replacing Wrath_of_DoG) 0
zindabad (replacing Artifice 101) 0
greymon90210 (replacing Arnnaria) 0
Foxlet (replacing MirrorEntity) 0
AE 0
Scum usually have difficulty talking with each other so they avoid it. Of course I'm biased but this puts me in a very confortable position as PB was one of the players that pressured WG most. It's also to be of note that Zinda, Nis, Greymon and Fox has just joined the game so they have limited opportunity to interact with WG. EP also died on N1.
total unique votes cast/votes on scum
DRey (replacing pinkys_brain) 5/1
Iso 4/0
Caex 5/1
Albus 3/1
Shark 4/1
EP 2/0
Nis (replacing Wrath_of_DoG) 2/0
zindabad (replacing Artifice 101) 2/0
greymon90210 (replacing Arnnaria) 2/0
Foxlet (replacing MirrorEntity) 0/0
AE 3/0
The most interesting thing is that AE has never voted on scum so far despite voting two different townies (shark 2x, albus 1x).
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
---
After reading until Iso's death and seeing Zinda's behavior I'm now sure he's scum. It matches perfectly to his scum game and Artifice's too, Artifice tends to tunnel as town so when he's scum he tries to emulate his style by choosing a player to tunnel, the difference is that when he's town he has actual reasons and he pushes hard. Scum Artifice just randomly chooses a player and keep saying he's scum without much elaboration, that's what he did here about Iso.
Also how can someone not see PB is the towniest of the town? It's certainly impossible townZinda to be this wrong about everything. And PB polay was suberb on this game, she noticed WG was scum early and that's certainly not busing she was pushing him hard. She also noticed Artifice and Zinda soon and pressured AE.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
==========================
I have analysed all post from WG, here's the count of quotes and questions he asks another players.
QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ Iso (dead)
QQQQQQQQQ PB
QQQQQQ Caex (dead)
QQQQQQ Shark (dead)
QQQ Nis
Q EP (dead)
Q Albus (dead)
Q Fox
Q greymon
Q Zinda
X AE
It's well-documented that scum have a harder time talking with their scumbuddies than townies.
WG did talk a lot, particularly with Iso as he was one of the main pushers on his wagon, considering the results the metodology is pretty good, WG/PD focused mostly questioning, commenting with townies. Unfortunately WG talked very little with all low guys but he completely ignored AE another thing we can get from this is that this completely clears PB and therefore me. Yeah I know I'm biased, sue me.
More next...
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Foxlet 54
Archmage Eternal 37
greymon90210 35
zindabad 24
Here are the total posts of suspects. Nis has triple interactions with WG but he has much more posts than the others so it's kinda null, AE has even more posts than Zinda and Grey (that's surprising since I don't remember AE doing anything) yet he has ZERO interactions with WG.
Here's WG only T/S post
I've changed the "places" of the guys according to this commentary here.
It's also well-documented scum likes to "spread" their buddies in different places. One as town, one as scum, other as neutral if possible. From his scumlist we know Shark is confirmed town and I'm confirmed town (to myself) so there's just Fox there. In the middle ground there's both Zinda and Nis, this makes unlikely WG, Zinda and Nis are part of the same scumteam. Again AE is on a bad spot because he's the only townread that isn't confirmed so far, plus his reasons for clearing AE are bougus because I don't remember he playing much games with AE, if at all, (correct me if wrong AE) plus his read on PB is because of her weird votes ( what about AE weird votes?) and ME lurking (how ME is a suspect for lurking but AE is not?).
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
==============
Total/Town/Scum
Caex 5 4 1
Albus 3 2 1
Shark 5 3 2
Iso 5 4 1
DRey 5/3/2
zindabad 3/2/1
greymon90210 4/3/1
Foxlet 1/0/1
wheat grinder 7/6/1
AE 4/4/0
Nis (replacing Wrath_of_DoG) 2/2/0
EP 2/2/0
Again things look bad for AE, he has managed to cast 4 votes (a number kinda kinda high for a heavy lurker like him) yet zero on scum, not even on the WG wagon that was the easiest for scum to join early. Nis also managed to not cast a vote on scum ever. It's also of note that Fox has cast just one vote the whole game and Nis just one. Considering their high number of posts that's kinda intriguing...
@Fox, Nis any reason for being so shy on your votes? ALso I want example of town and scum games of both of you. kthanksbye.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
Zinda, AE (unlikely, will explain tomorrow)
Nis, Zinda (I can see this, the main problem with this is that AE must be town also WG t/S list make this unlikely)
AE, Nis (if I had to bet, this would be my pick today)
AE, Fox (mostly because she gave him a coin, that sit reaaaaally bad with me, give a coin to one of your scumreads? really fox? it's also of note scum has gained two investigations so far)
From my rereads I have reasons to suspect any of those guys plus grey, it could be a bad scum gambit after all, but if Grey is scum we will anyway so I eliminated this possibility. I will create "cases" on each one tomorrow.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
I'm to tired to math at the moment, but I think even with them gaining the second investigation they could have the Vig shot tomorrow (ie the same time the town does). Which would be when after the next GoC pays out.
I think there was talk of lylo before. With a total of 4-2 but UNKNOWN STATUS OF VIG SHOT...it's best to play it as such. The scum could be waiting to push an incorrect lynch on a town before smacking us with the vig shot. Boom, we lose.
Given that the GoC only needs 2 coins now to reach pay out, it won't really matter at this point who they target it so long as they kill someone. In my opinion, if they had they option of screwing the town AND having the GoC pay out vs killing a "confirmed" town and having the GoC pay out...I think I know which one I would choose (and it isn't killing the confirmed town)
I would like to have you expand on that since we know the scum are going to lie about coins, what do you hope to accomplish?
I'm oK with a masscoin claim after you expand on your details. Scumspect info below.
As for scum...I wouldn't say that the scumlist is telling...I think it would depend on where Wheaties tended to put his scumbuddies in a T/S list in general. When I played with Iso in Trisk he had both his buddies as scum most of the time and bussed them pretty hard as well from what I recall. That way when we lynched one and they turned up scum he got town cred
I think part of the problem with Wheat's commentary which you probably noticed (you copied it) was in this. It's been discussed frequently. In short the "I'm thinking Nis will be a town-read as the day goes on". Also, pinky gets a "weird vote" comment, but not Nis? Same with ME but not AE with the lurking?
Also, I can *possibly* see the comment about AE since at the time I placed in this game had only one game experience with AE and he was NK on D1 He was pretty lurky and posted infrequently (and also had a counting PR), however I wouldn't have just slotted him town based on that. It could just be his playstyle.
Short answer, I only vote for people when I'm ready to see them claim or lynched. More of a personal thing really. I've gotten in several "arguments" about it because I think the voting trail, while it CAN give you information in the case of my unfortunate demise, most people know that and vote indiscriminately....especially scum, so they like to muddy the waters
Ck my blog...most recent town game completed was Vampires Only scum game is currently ongoing and I had to replace out due to personal issues.
Yeah, I know, I know. It seemed like a good idea at the time, and I said why. I just figured he would be the likely investigation target.
So right now your main preferences is either Nis/Zindy or either Nis/AE?
I'm sure you will go into it later, but why is your theory of the t/s list and AE being town make less likely?
I'll add more tomorrow cause, yeah this has taken too long as it is
I tend to be vote shy. Not really sure why but I vote mainly when I feel confident that somebody is scum. Occasionally I'll vote to pressure somebody, but that's restricted to D1 and mostly for lurkers or fence-sitters.
As for town/scum games:
That was kind of fun reminiscing about old games.
[card=Jace Beleren]Jace[/card] = Jace
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
7 days remaining.
~~~
Votecount
Nis (1) - Archmage Eternal
It takes 4 to Lynch with 6 alive.
We'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Hosting: Vista Mafia
Hosted: Intrigue Mafia (Mini), Seance #43 (Basic), Conflux Mafia (Normal), Goo Mafia (FTQ), Experiment #26 (Basic)
Ongoing/Completed - 0/41
Town/Mafia/SK/Survivor - 30/6/4/1
NKed/Lynched/Survived - 15/11/15
THE PLAN
Everyone confirmed sending money. I want to highlight these three posts.
Shark confirm sending money according to the plan
AE confirming he sent the money according to the plan
Shark confirming he sent his coin AGAIN
What we discern from these posts. AE had already "sent" his coins according to the plan (he never said he was against the plan after all), after WG is lynched there's no way to cancel his courier because the action was already sent, therefore he can't have a change of heart at night ("man, this plan is not good, greymon will be NKed, I'm better not following the plan so I can fool the scum, I'm so smart") because at that point it's too late for that. Shark was townie, knew greymon was townie, had no reason to lie, and agreed to the plan thousand times, therefore it's safe to say shark sent his coin before dying. Remember the courier gives teh coin before night actions happens, this also explain his low money when dying.
THE "ACTUAL" RESULT
Let's try to deduce Shark's coins once more with feeling.
Shark started with 2 coins.
He gave Caex 1 coin on N2 because he felt he was towniest. -1
He gave Greymon 1 coin N3 according to the plan. -1
He gave Greymon 1 coin N4 according to the plan. -1
He received 2 coins from the guild of coins. +2
TOTAL: 1
Since his bid on the cop failed we know he had just 1 coin excluding last night happenings. Therefore Shark received 3 coins last night because he died with 4 coins. There's no need for crazy assumptions, bids on protection by Shark or something strange at all, everything is on the thread for everyone to see.
4 people said they gave coins to Shark, one of them is lying. 2 People said they gave coin to Greymon, one of them is lying. Fortunately one of the guys that gave Greymon the coin has just died and flipped town, meaning he's telling the truth and Foxlet is scum. But what about the other guy that should have sent his money to Greymon and didn't? What's the real reason he didn't? TO PROTECT FOX LIE AND MAKE IT LOOKS LIKE SHE DID SEND THE MONEY TO GREYMON WHEN THE REALITY IS THAT BOTH OF THEM DIDN'T SEND THE COINS FOR TOWN BECAUSE THEY ARE SCUM.
TLDR: Game is over, it's Fox and AE, AE needs to go first because scum have been pooling money on him all game.
Things of note:
-Fox had AE as a suspect the whole thread, but she gave him a coin because he would be inspected or killed anyway therefore his coin would come back to town eventually. This reasoning is crap!! Why would town risk giving money to their scumspect hoping it eventually come back to town since themselves are town? If you want the coin to come back to town, just don't send it! Why risk? This makes no sense from a town POV because she would be giving money away to get it back later.
-AE killed EP because he was suspecting him and EP can read him well.
-Fox is constanly trying to downplay Greymon confirmed town status ("maybe he was gambitting with Wheat", "remember Wheat said Greymon was town, both could be buddies")
-Fox has not cast even a vote on the whole thread, her only vote was on WG and just because he was confirmed scum anyway. I reread her town games and she casts votes normally there, I counted like 6 votes on Triskelion when I started counting, Nis on the other hand really disliked to cast votes as town in Things I Like, I think he just cast 2 votes the whole game as town.
BONUS- Why shark was killed and not confirmed town greymon (confirmed town on lylo are scum worst nightmares because of POE)?
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=8884679&postcount=772
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=8890173&postcount=780
Shark suspected AE and Fox, he also said he would be investigating one of them last night, therefore he had to be silenced.
---
I'm ready to vote AE, and let's ignore the vig shot, I want everyone tonight to use protection meaning scum must spend coins to kill us, reducing their money we will prevent them from getting enough money for the vig anyway.
@AE, Fox the game is over, if you guys want to concede to speed things up it will be awesome, I want to join other games.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
I can also believe that Fox is scum. Ever since he sent a coin to AE instead of to Caex or greymon I've been wary of him. His reasoning was junk then.
Vote AE
[card=Jace Beleren]Jace[/card] = Jace
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The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.
It would go like that.
Therefore he would have no excuse to not give coins to greymon or at least he should try to fight the plan back, not a good proposion for scum since the plan was very pro-town.
Instead it was like this.
He preemptively did not said he has ever agreed to the plan nor that he has sent the coin according to the plan, meaning he never wanted to send the coin in the first place, but wanted to let his options open so he could discuss with Fox on the mafiaQT what they both should claim next day to better explain both of them not giving coins to town.
Mythic rarity is not destroying the game. People whine too much for no good reason. Magic is more popular than ever, so keep calm, brew some decks and play some damn cards.