I was didn't think it was a good idea to let out that I was a protective role based only on a nameclaim, though I suppose I probably should have claimed Arvoreen and nothing else, but 20/20 hindsight...
I also want to hear why Kops deceieved us about his role name, and further why he didn't clear this up earlier. He had three posts after I brought up the X Y inconsitancy and people began to claim. Perhaps he thought that since there were only 4 people that'd claimed, either others wouldn't get on board, or someone would have x and y.
See above, clearing it up would have let on that I was a protective role and I didn't want that getting out unless it was absolutely necessary.
Well, that's certainly not what I thought kops was going to say. That is not good or bad, just different.
So kops, how likely do you think it to be that both "your" role, and the role Chucklez has claimed to be in the game and on the side of the town? Assuming, for the moment (if you yourself are not a "standard" Doc - which you have made it sound like you aren't) that there is also a standard Doc in the game.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
kops- to ensure I'm not misunderstanding you or misquoting you or anything, one last time in your own words: why did you signal Treigit like that?
Last chance to answer; this is the #1 dodgiest thing you've done, it's the source of the wagon on you etc etc. If you can adequately explain why you signalled Treigit, I'm prepared to back off.
If you can't, that claim (especially with the subtitle issues) won't save you. Doc claim from cornered scum is very, very common, and I don't like your reasons for the subtitle thing at all.
One because unless your real subtitle is "god of doctors" or something I doubt it's a real giveaway, names rarely give away ability in games here. Two, scum or town you're right, you were better off just claiming the name Arvoreen- but that your instinct was to deceive rather than to just not give away info is telling.
So kops, how likely do you think it to be that both "your" role, and the role Chucklez has claimed to be in the game and on the side of the town? Assuming, for the moment (if you yourself are not a "standard" Doc - which you have made it sound like you aren't) that there is also a standard Doc in the game.
Leading the witness, your honour!
And also, what an assumption, that kops' role is a non-standard doc and that there would definitely be a standard doc role in this game.
Regarding kops, I see no reason to believe him. The most positive thing I can say about his claim is that it makes him look less like the CL and Treigit more like it, because this claim seems calculated to draw attention back to kops, where it's been lagging in favor of Treigit since Axel's post on the subject.
So we ignore all the voting information we gathered on day one?
No. The problem I have is that, from your perspective, I don't understand how you consider his voting record to be all that awful. Considering what you know about Treigit, it isn't completely unreasonable to see a bandwagon form on him. Axel has clearly been well ahead of the curve with his evaluation of Treigit.
How so??
As townie, why wouldn't he block me just the same? In both cases you have a vacuum of information, and in a vacuum if he doesn't know any better to not fire his ability, he's going to pick someone he's heard of. That was an extremely flimsy rationale to go from this and this to this:
Because as a townie, he specifically said that he didn't target you because he'd heard your name before. While that may have been an acceptable rationale, he specifically denied it. MD really did choose you completely at random, according to his own claim, and that really was an unlikely story. Especially when weighed against the possibility of the mafia urging him to block you, which is pretty darn likely in any given game.
I hate that I'm arguing against a known townie, because I did not, at the time, think that the case against MD was very good, and would love to condemn Axel for it, but of all the reasons to be suspicious of MD, the ones Axel chose were the best ones. If I had understood this reason fully at the time, I might have changed my vote, too.
Yes, it's the same risk as killing a townie, but elevated because we have reason to suspect he's non-mafia.
I'm sorry if that was unclear. I meant the risk, to the town, of killing Treigit, regardless of what his role may (assuming it isn't mafia), not the risk of killing Treigit and finding out that he's town. In other words, not the odds that he's "non-mafia," which I consider extremely high, but the odds of his lynch hurting the town in their overall bid to win the game.
I thought that you were talking about the same risk, though I suppose I was mistaken.
I haven't set out the numbers? Have you been reading my posts at all?? Do the figures 9-10 to lynch, and 6 mafia ring any bells (22 alive -4 or 5=18 or 17, and 9 or 10 to lynch)? Axelrod has been crunching numbers alright, but he's been doing it in the way that sounds the least damaging and favors his position the most. No, it's not instant death. I have never said it was instant death. It's a giant step closer to instant death, which I find equally objectionable if it can be avoided by smart play.
I have read all your posts. The problem is that you've used numbers like that without putting them together into a reason why "9-10 to lynch, and 6 mafia" is any worse than "9-10 lynch, and 5 mafia and a cult." Axelrod actually did that.
I pointed out that given your own worst case scenario, there isn't reason to think that we will reach Lynch or Lose before Day 5, regardless of whether we go after the cult or not. That doesn't sound like a giant step. To me, it sounds like a risk we'll have to take at some point, anyway.
The way I see it, the ideal situation would be to lynch either cult, SK, or mafia every day from now until we win. From now, we have room for one mislynch to accomplish all that, unless we get the SK early, according to your own worst-case scenario. Now, from my perspective, choosing not to lynching the cult that we know in favor of lynching a mafia that we don't know smacks of suicide. We will have a significantly better idea of who the mafia are in future days, if for no other reason than because a bunch of other players have died. On the other hand, are knowledge of the cult's head will never be better, so we may as well blow that head off, rather than potentially waste our only margin for error.
If you honestly contend that the cult would be dealt with by the mafia, then we have a margin of error of two mislynches (barring other considerations that may come up in the future). But even assuming this, all the mafia have to do is hold out in this game of chicken longer than us, because their doom from cult domination is always further away than ours. Once we choose not to lynch the cult, the mafia just need to wait until we mislynch once, and all our margin of error is suddenly gone; dependant on the mafia to do us a favor in order to regain it.
If you'd read my posts, I detailed exactly what constitutes scummy argumentation, and it is not false logic or simple-minded mistakes. It is willful, deliberate efforts to smear your opponent and their argument. This is not Billking lashing out in OMGUS mode, or other similar incidents, this is a cool and calculated campaign to turn aside the town from fully investigating him. And so long as the town buys his cheap, escapist parlor trick of endlessly repeating "you're exaggerating", he's completely free to get away with it.
Vote Azrael.
The problem is that you really are exaggerating. I don't disagree entirely with your case against Axelrod; the only part I have a major issue with is condemning him for his behavior against MD, but there are a lot of minor issues that you have not given full consideration to, in which you overstate your case. If Axel is exploiting these, it isn't because they aren't there.
In any case, if your goal is to get the town to "fully investigate him" rather than to just lynch him, then I lost that point somewhere. Axel hasn't shown any tendency that I've seen to avoid answering questions from the gallery. If you want a fuller investigation than what can be gained with that, you'll probably need to wait until night. If not, then what still needs to be investigated?
From what I see, your case against him consists of:
1. A mediocre voting record
2. Your rationale that the cult is a bad target for the town
3. The fact that he is impatient with your PBPA-style of discussion and gets pissy about it in the thread.
4. A whole slew of points that might be condemning if you had some way to connect them, but mean little standing alone.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Ok, this is an important post. If you've just been skimming through the thread before now, you might want to slow down a little bit to read this one entirely.
No. The problem I have is that, from your perspective, I don't understand how you consider his voting record to be all that awful. Considering what you know about Treigit, it isn't completely unreasonable to see a bandwagon form on him. Axel has clearly been well ahead of the curve with his evaluation of Treigit.
Ahead of the curve in identifying him as likely cult? The mafia have just as much incentive to pick off scummy acting non-mafia as the town does, but the difference between the two is that it's much easier for mafia to focus in on the non-mafia than it is for the town to distinguish which is which. So usually, a mafia player will be "ahead of the curve" in identifying neutrals and the like.
Quote from Carrion Pigeons »
Because as a townie, he specifically said that he didn't target you because he'd heard your name before. While that may have been an acceptable rationale, he specifically denied it. MD really did choose you completely at random, according to his own claim, and that really was an unlikely story. Especially when weighed against the possibility of the mafia urging him to block you, which is pretty darn likely in any given game.
I'm not sure that's exactly true. He used the word "random" twice to describe his choice, but does that mean that he rolled dice, or that he simply picked the first person who came to mind without much rhyme or reason? He never specified which, to my knowledge.
Quote from Carrion Pigeons »
I hate that I'm arguing against a known townie, because I did not, at the time, think that the case against MD was very good, and would love to condemn Axel for it, but of all the reasons to be suspicious of MD, the ones Axel chose were the best ones. If I had understood this reason fully at the time, I might have changed my vote, too.
If my last point, doesn't sway you, I don't think we're going to agree on this one. To me, and most of the rest of the town, the behavioral tells seemed to be much more compelling. To you, and apparently Axelrod, the opposite is true.
Quote from Carrion Pigeons »
I'm sorry if that was unclear. I meant the risk, to the town, of killing Treigit, regardless of what his role may (assuming it isn't mafia), not the risk of killing Treigit and finding out that he's town. In other words, not the odds that he's "non-mafia," which I consider extremely high, but the odds of his lynch hurting the town in their overall bid to win the game.
I thought that you were talking about the same risk, though I suppose I was mistaken.
If you view the game state as a total number of scum, all of which must be eliminated before reaching the end of the game, then the view that we should lynch Treigit becomes much more intelligible.
But here's the perspective which I've been using, and perhaps you'll see some value to it.
We are in a race against time. We have an impending threshold at which the mafia will seize control of the town, and dispatch us. Beyond that impending threshold, somewhere in the future, is the possibility that the cult will achieve a majority.
In order to stave off a mafia victory, and buy ourselves enough time to seek out the remaining scum, we must first pursue the mafia single-mindedly. If the cult's threshold of victory becomes more imminent, then we turn on the cult. Essentially, our object is not to eliminate all the types of scum as quickly as possible, our object is to maximize our chance of survival by pushing back the threshold at which we will lose. When we gain more space, we have more options, and greater discretion to pursue other leads.
So, although lynching the cult leader would decrease the total amount of scum we must eventually deal with, it brings the mafia closer to their threshold of victory. And because not all scum are equally dangerous, the best play for the town is to lynch the cult leader much later in the order than they lynch mafia.
In one sense, in the broader perspective of the game, lynching the cult leader is avoiding a possible mislynch of a pure townie. But in a much more immediate sense, it is deliberately exposing us to the mafia and advancing their agenda by bringing them closer to their threshold of victory.
Once the mafia has been weakened, that is acceptable. In this situation, I don't think we can justify it. We would be drawing too close to the edge.
Quote from Carrion Pigeons »
I have read all your posts. The problem is that you've used numbers like that without putting them together into a reason why "9-10 to lynch, and 6 mafia" is any worse than "9-10 lynch, and 5 mafia and a cult." Axelrod actually did that.
I wrongly assumed that it would be self-evident. I hope the last few paragraphs correct my mistake.
Quote from Carrion Pigeons »
I pointed out that given your own worst case scenario, there isn't reason to think that we will reach Lynch or Lose before Day 5, regardless of whether we go after the cult or not. That doesn't sound like a giant step. To me, it sounds like a risk we'll have to take at some point, anyway.
I may have missed reading that. I'm not sure your numbers add up, however.
Let's say we followed a lynch Treigit, kill Kops plan, and experience two kills a night, as in a regular game, and the unaccounted kill from night one was an extra kill (which would not be surprising). We lynch one player each day, and lose two by night.
Day 3, 18 alive at start, 6m
day 4, 15 alive at start, 6m
day 5, 12 alive at start, 6m, Mafia win at daybreak
So in that scenario, we would be at lynch or lose on day 4. There is some chance of luck intervening, but current thread developments (the outing of Bluesoul, possible outing of doc) are making lucky breaks other than scum crossfire (a chancy proposition to base the fate of the game on) increasingly less likely.
In other words, if we followed the lynch Treigit/vig kops plan, we would have a single mislynch standing between us and Lylo. And although the percentage of mafia remaining alive would increase, helping us somewhat, their voting influence over us would increase as well, counter-balancing those gains.
If we simply lynched Treigit or Kops as cult or town and refused to vig, we might have one additional mislynch. However, Axelrod was very noncommital about whether he was pushing for Kops' claim as a possible waypoint on the path to a vig-kill, or simply for information. And, he never explained why we would want that information if we did not want to vig or lynch Kops.
Either reason is scummy, because he was either lobbying for the exposure of a townie power role, or he was lobbying for a vig-kill which could land us at Lylo as early as two days from now. Both ways, the mafia profit.
Quote from Carrion Pigeons »
If you honestly contend that the cult would be dealt with by the mafia, then we have a margin of error of two mislynches (barring other considerations that may come up in the future). But even assuming this, all the mafia have to do is hold out in this game of chicken longer than us, because their doom from cult domination is always further away than ours. Once we choose not to lynch the cult, the mafia just need to wait until we mislynch once, and all our margin of error is suddenly gone; dependant on the mafia to do us a favor in order to regain it.
This is unfortunately true, despite my efforts not to state it explicitly for them. However, the SK would still have good reason to do so, in order to safeguard his continuing ability to strike, and not be drafted into a cult which has little chance of victory.
Quote from Carrion Pigeons »
The problem is that you really are exaggerating. I don't disagree entirely with your case against Axelrod; the only part I have a major issue with is condemning him for his behavior against MD, but there are a lot of minor issues that you have not given full consideration to, in which you overstate your case. If Axel is exploiting these, it isn't because they aren't there.
I may be arguing my points too vigorously at times, but more often I think my points have been misunderstood, partially because Axelrod has been clouding the issues.
Quote from Carrion Pigeons »
In any case, if your goal is to get the town to "fully investigate him" rather than to just lynch him, then I lost that point somewhere. Axel hasn't shown any tendency that I've seen to avoid answering questions from the gallery. If you want a fuller investigation than what can be gained with that, you'll probably need to wait until night. If not, then what still needs to be investigated?
For one, I'd like to know why he continued pushing for Kops' claim. And I've been dissatisfied enough with his push against the likely cultists that I would sanction a claim, given enough pressure.
Quote from Carrion Pigeons »
From what I see, your case against him consists of:
1. A mediocre voting record
2. Your rationale that the cult is a bad target for the town
3. The fact that he is impatient with your PBPA-style of discussion and gets pissy about it in the thread.
4. A whole slew of points that might be condemning if you had some way to connect them, but mean little standing alone.
That comes close, but there are some important points that you might have missed.
A mediocre voting record is what pretty much everyone in this thread has (and who am I to accuse Axel of a bad voting record, when I've voted against a townie in every single post? ), because we haven't had a wagon that's struck home. However, what I dislike is that his rationale for voting against MD, and his flip-flop seems unjustified by my way of thinking.
Saying that my rationale is that the cult is bad target is very much an understatement: I think that targeting the cult could very well be suicide for the town, and that the mafia has every reason to encourage us to do it.
I also dislike the way he's used subjective feelings as an attempt to answer my points (thoughts are one thing, if they can be justifed, feelings and unjustified thoughts are another). In the places in which he tried to turn aside my questioning by merely saying "that's how I felt", he was evading giving an explanation for his actions.
Similarly, by merely attacking my argument, painting it as something different, sidetracking it, refusing to continue it, and libelling it as merely over-exaggerated and misguided, he was evading answering. And that is why it becomes scummy behavior, because he was substituting them for genuine, helpful responses.
I agree that kops first instinct to try to deceive people is fairly damning. I don't believe his claim coupled with the unexplained signal to Treigit.
Vote kops
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"Flesh so fine, so fine to tear, to gash the skin; skin to strip, to plait, so nice to plait the strips, so nice, so red the drops that fall; blood so red, so red, so sweet; sweet screams, pretty screams, singing screams, scream your song, sing your screams…” - The Eye of the World - Robert Jordan
And also, what an assumption, that kops' role is a non-standard doc and that there would definitely be a standard doc role in this game.
How is it that big of an assumption to make? The way kops worded his claim made it seem like he is not a standard doc (as axel pointed out in his post). I think Axel's question is a fair one to kops, and I would like to hear the answer as well.
This is not good. I thought this might be where kops was headed (doc claim), and coupled with Bluesoul's outing earlier today, it's a very precarious position.
To those of you voting Kops: Why? If he's truly the doctor, don't you think he'll be disposed of by the mafia/SK? If he's not, his appearance over the course of the next few days becomes very suspect, we can revisit the case then. Why on earth would we waste our lynch testing this as a false claim when he'll likely die via nightkill?
Az brings up some good points, but I think in the situation here, we would be better off keeping Treigit alive, giving us another day (assuming 2 nightkills per night). Also, I don't see why the SK has incentive to kill the CL. Isn't it easier for the SK to win as Cult? (I don't have much experience with either).
Waiting to hear from kops on the questions asked, especially why he he chose to claim a name complete (almost) opposite of what his claimed ability is.
In response to DYH - Because I don't trust his claim.
DYH, you seem very eager to de-rail a waggon of [to my knowledge] 3 votes, but allow yourself a chance to be wrong with the line "we can revisit the case then".
The only way lynching kops makes any sense is if you legitimately believe he's mafia. He's painted two gigantic targets on his back today- one, his "accidental" link with Treigit making him a likely CL, and now he's claimed doc. If you legitimately think he's going to make it through the next few evenings, I'd love to hear why. Therefore, I don't see the logic in wasting our lynch on someone who is likely going to die, anyhow.
Your second statement is humorous. Of course I have to allow for myself to be wrong- I'm not the cop, and I'm not perfect (as hard as I try to be, dammit!). That's not the purpose of that statement, however; it's just common sense. If someone is a probable CL and a claimed doc and they're alive two or three days down the road- you don't think that might be worth checking into? I certainly do.
Ok, this is an important post.... I would sanction....
What hubris! It's both astonishing and understandable. The rest of this "important" post is most convincing. I've been restraining my support for Az in this analyst clash as an excersise in self control and to atain more information as the debate progresses. I think it's gone far enough now.
"A whole slew of points that might mean something if there was some way to connect them." Body of evidence. Each point is more damning then the last. Vote: Axelrod.
Quote from DYH »
If he's truly the doctor, don't you think he'll be disposed of by the mafia/SK? If he's not, his appearance over the course of the next few days becomes very suspect, we can revisit the case then.
Chucklez is getting more suspicous. Will we have time to revisit these claimed docs? Nevertheless, DYH is very right.
Az brings up some good points, but I think in the situation here, we would be better off keeping Treigit alive, giving us another day (assuming 2 nightkills per night). Also, I don't see why the SK has incentive to kill the CL. Isn't it easier for the SK to win as Cult? (I don't have much experience with either).
Usually, yes. But now that the cult has been exposed, it's very unlikely to survive long enough to have a chance. In this scenario, the SK is much better off hedging his bets on his original win condition, I think. Otherwise, he's relying on the charity of the mafia and the town or a minor miracle in order to win. And, the cult leader as Treigit described it poses the greatest danger to him out of any role remaining in the game, unless DM's done something wacky. The only thing he fears more is the town's lynch and the mafia's kill, but since he can't do anything about those, eliminating the cult's "kill"/perpetual roleblock ought to be his best play.
Az. you are wearing your blinders wrong. They're not supposed to completely cover your eyes, just block your vision so you can only see in one direction.
Ahead of the curve in identifying him as likely cult? The mafia have just as much incentive to pick off scummy acting non-mafia as the town does, but the difference between the two is that it's much easier for mafia to focus in on the non-mafia than it is for the town to distinguish which is which. So usually, a mafia player will be "ahead of the curve" in identifying neutrals and the like.
So now the fact that I was critical of Tregit early is also an indicator of mafianess? Are you now conceding that Tregit looked scummy?
I am not arguing that the fact that Tregit has conceded he is anti-town is any kind of evidence in my favor. But, far from being a point in my favor, you seem to think it's a point against me, as though a mafia would be more likely than a regular townie to sense something was wrong with Tregit.
This is why there's no arguing with you. You will just view everything I say or do through your mafia-colored glasses.
Quote from Azrael »
I'm not sure that's exactly true. He used the word "random" twice to describe his choice, but does that mean that he rolled dice, or that he simply picked the first person who came to mind without much rhyme or reason? He never specified which, to my knowledge.
Again, ridiculous. You won't give an inch. You will twist anything anyone says and/or ignore it when the facts simply don't agree. MD clearly said he random voted. I pressed him on that very question multiple times because I wanted to know the answer first. It was key.
And you just dismiss it with "well, maybe his version of Random didn't mean what you think it means." And then continue to maintain against all reasonableness that my particular vote on MD was somehow scummier than other peoples.
Quote from Azrael »
If you view the game state as a total number of scum, all of which must be eliminated before reaching the end of the game, then the view that we should lynch Treigit becomes much more intelligible.
But here's the perspective which I've been using, and perhaps you'll see some value to it.
We are in a race against time. We have an impending threshold at which the mafia will seize control of the town, and dispatch us. Beyond that impending threshold, somewhere in the future, is the possibility that the cult will achieve a majority.
I have pointed out now that if there is a Cult, based on DM's last game, there appears to be good reason to believe Tregit is the Leader. If he is, and Cult recruits revert to town after his death, then you are correct that there is no impending threat. But how can we know for sure? How will we ever know if we don't lynch him? He's been inspected and come up Neutral. We aren't getting more information on that front, unless there are other abilities floating around to give us something.
If we were wrong about this particularly crucial fact, the idea that we can simply eliminate the Cult at will anytime we want is flatly wrong.
This is not to say that a Cult is a greater threat than a mafia. Please do not put those words in my mouth. But sometimes a Bird in hand is better, etc., etc.
Quote from Azrael »
In order to stave off a mafia victory, and buy ourselves enough time to seek out the remaining scum, we must first pursue the mafia single-mindedly. If the cult's threshold of victory becomes more imminent, then we turn on the cult. Essentially, our object is not to eliminate all the types of scum as quickly as possible, our object is to maximize our chance of survival by pushing back the threshold at which we will lose. When we gain more space, we have more options, and greater discretion to pursue other leads.
I don't think you will find people who are arguing that it is better to lynch mafia. The criticism is the idea that you can just ignore this Cult until some unspecified point in the future. ANd then lynch/night-kill them at will. Your language, first pursue the mafia, then later we can turn on the Cult, presumes we can pick and choose. You constantly blow this off "what I mean is that we can "try" to lynch one or the other", but then you go right back to the same language you have always been using.
Quote from Azrael »
So, although lynching the cult leader would decrease the total amount of scum we must eventually deal with, it brings the mafia closer to their threshold of victory. And because not all scum are equally dangerous, the best play for the town is to lynch the cult leader much later in the order than they lynch mafia.
In one sense, in the broader perspective of the game, lynching the cult leader is avoiding a possible mislynch of a pure townie. But in a much more immediate sense, it is deliberately exposing us to the mafia and advancing their agenda by bringing them closer to their threshold of victory.
If it were going to be done at all, sooner is better than later. Unless you were sure of the Leader and sure the recruits would revert.
Quote from Azrael »
Once the mafia has been weakened, that is acceptable. In this situation, I don't think we can justify it. We would be drawing too close to the edge.
Again with the fear mongering. "Too close to the edge...." And then again, maybe we'll wake up with 2 dead mafia toworrow (go go SK and Vig!)
Quote from Azrael »
I wrongly assumed that it would be self-evident. I hope the last few paragraphs correct my mistake.
No, it's only if you assume the worst. And if you assume the worst, we lose no matter what.
Quote from Azrael »
I may have missed reading that. I'm not sure your numbers add up, however.
Let's say we followed a lynch Treigit, kill Kops plan, and experience two kills a night, as in a regular game, and the unaccounted kill from night one was an extra kill (which would not be surprising). We lynch one player each day, and lose two by night.
Day 3, 18 alive at start, 6m
day 4, 15 alive at start, 6m
day 5, 12 alive at start, 6m, Mafia win at daybreak
So in that scenario, we would be at lynch or lose on day 4. There is some chance of luck intervening, but current thread developments (the outing of Bluesoul, possible outing of doc) are making lucky breaks other than scum crossfire (a chancy proposition to base the fate of the game on) increasingly less likely.
Who is actively advocating a Lynch Tregit Vig kops plan right now? You keep saying this like it's a foregone conclusion (and like they are both confirmed townies - except for possibly being Cult - and like it was my idea).
Then you assume a mislynch and two dead townies each night with no crossfire. Gee, I think we would lose if that kept happening. 4 mislynches? Average of 3 town dead every Night. What is your point again? That with careful play we might get another Day?
Quote from Azrael »
If we simply lynched Treigit or Kops as cult or town and refused to vig, we might have one additional mislynch. However, Axelrod was very noncommital about whether he was pushing for Kops' claim as a possible waypoint on the path to a vig-kill, or simply for information. And, he never explained why we would want that information if we did not want to vig or lynch Kops.
This is infuriating. You really, really want me to have said that I want kops to be vigged, because it makes such a nice argument for how terrible "my" plan was/is, which was never my plan, but maybe if you keep saying it someone will mistakenly think it was, but, unfortunately for you I never said anything like that.
So you then attempt to construe a request for a claim as a request for kops to be vigged. Wonderful logic. Clearly if I asked him to claim anything then I'm suspicious, and clearly if I'm suspicious then (1) I'm wrong because kops is nothing except possibly friendly Cult and (2) that means I want him to be vigged.
Why do I ever ask someone for something? To evaluate their claim, and specifically to evaluate it against the backdrop of what they have already said in the game. As a "way-point" on the path to being vigged? Yes, that makes sense.
You are too far gone to be persuaded of anything, clearly, but this is just for people who are still paying attention.
Quote from Azrael »
Either reason is scummy, because he was either lobbying for the exposure of a townie power role, or he was lobbying for a vig-kill which could land us at Lylo as early as two days from now. Both ways, the mafia profit.
Your wonderful logic means that anyone asking for a claim ever is scummy. Wait, you don't mean that. It's just me. Right, I get it.
Quote from Azrael »
For one, I'd like to know why he continued pushing for Kops' claim. And I've been dissatisfied enough with his push against the likely cultists that I would sanction a claim, given enough pressure.
Why I wanted to know specifically what his claim was after he said he was a "power" role? You don't see why a town player might possibly ask that question? More to the point, are you saying you saw nothing suspicious about him at all, aside from his possibly signaling to Tregit?
You are stretching to make an argument that is not there simply for the purpose of viewing everything I do in the most negative light.
I'll tell you this much, I always have reasons for everything I do.
Oh good, a "short" statement of the case. Let's see it again:
Quote from Azrael »
A mediocre voting record is what pretty much everyone in this thread has (and who am I to accuse Axel of a bad voting record, when I've voted against a townie in every single post? ), because we haven't had a wagon that's struck home. However, what I dislike is that his rationale for voting against MD, and his flip-flop seems unjustified by my way of thinking.
Wait, by "your" way of thinking? Isn't that an invalid/subjective response?
I explained this several times. Trying to slant my vote on MD as somehow worse than other players, when it was probably more justified, is just you being unable to be objective.
Quote from Azrael »
Saying that my rationale is that the cult is bad target is very much an understatement: I think that targeting the cult could very well be suicide for the town, and that the mafia has every reason to encourage us to do it.
"Suicide" in three more days you mean. Assuming Tregit is "only" a harmless Cultist, and assuming we mislynch 2 more times on Days 3 and 4 and assuming that we lose 3 "town" (or harmless Cult) tonight (counting kops who I clearly am asking to be vigged and you know I always get what I want), and then 2 more "town" (or harmless Cult) on each succeeding Night and assuming a 6 man mafia (as opposed to 2 mafias)and assuming no Mafia/SK crossfire tonight, tomorrow or the Night after.
Your right. It's suicide. How could any reasonable person fail to see it. I must be scum.
Quote from Azrael »
I also dislike the way he's used subjective feelings as an attempt to answer my points (thoughts are one thing, if they can be justifed, feelings and unjustified thoughts are another). In the places in which he tried to turn aside my questioning by merely saying "that's how I felt", he was evading giving an explanation for his actions.
No, I wasn't. Which actions were you talking about again? Voting for MD? Voting for Tregit? Asking kops to clarify his "power role" claim?
Quote from Azrael »
Similarly, by merely attacking my argument, painting it as something different, sidetracking it, refusing to continue it, and libelling it as merely over-exaggerated and misguided, he was evading answering. And that is why it becomes scummy behavior, because he was substituting them for genuine, helpful responses.
Your arguments are over-exaggerated, misguided, and plain wrong. So I say so. I have pointed out ad nauseaum the places where you have over-stepped yourself, exaggerated and twisted in your zeal to try and paint me as scum. You barely acknowledge my replies.
And saying that I'm "evading" answering? I would laugh if other people weren't taking you seriously.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
1. A mediocre voting record
2. Your rationale that the cult is a bad target for the town
3. The fact that he is impatient with your PBPA-style of discussion and gets pissy about it in the thread.
4. A whole slew of points that might be condemning if you had some way to connect them, but mean little standing alone.
That wasn't a very nice way to show Ozzy's case! Why would you defend Axel in such a way? Or do I even need to ask?
TYCHO IS A SMART MAN!
There's no reason to lynch kops without a counterclaim. He could be lying, sure, but we'll get him soon if that's the case. Meanwhile, let's bully Axie!
UNVOTE, VOTE AXELROD!
When's Puzzle getting back? I'd be interested to here what he's got to say on all this.
If Trei is any of the types of bad men you suspect him to be, that is non-mafia like, and it has been shown why he is unlikely SK, isn't it better to toss the vig at him, mostly because we need to hit some mafia bad men, and lynching him gives us very little info?
I suppose it's too much to ask if there was a specific reason for that vote?
You think I was "leading" kops with my question? I frame my questions fairly deliberately, and in any event, I would have thought the reason was self-evident. There are going to be a limited number of protective roles in this game. I'm assuming there is a standard issue Doc (which certainly could be wrong). But kops has implied, if not flat out stated that his role is not standard issue. He ought to have an opinion about Chucklez. I want him to take a position. Getting people to take positions is one of the better ways to get reads on them.
Re Tregit: ultimately, lynching him or "tossing the vig. at him" might end up being completely equivilent. But I can certainly think of situations where it wouldn't be.
If Tregit is CL and he has recruited a townie power role and roles revert upon the Death of the CL, the townie would get to use his ability tonight. (note all the qualifiers).
Also, if it's actually a Death Cult, then waiting is definitely harmful for the town. I realize Az scorns the very notion of a Death Cult as being too unfair to the town, but what can I say? I've seen them. They do exist. I didn't make it up. I think the original Cultist role was a Death Cult. I also realize that a Death Cult has never been done on Salvation.
As CL he might have some kind of night-kill immunity (as Fayul did in Random 2).
The town vig. might get role-blocked.
Apparently I think the information to be gained is more significant than most. He might also be some other kind of harmful Neutral. At this point, it's still just his word that it is even a Cult at all.
Who are the "mafia bad men" that are better choices that we should be lynching? You just voted me. That's not better.
You were voting Chucklez before and that's a lynch that I could possibly get behind, but I'm currently waiting for more information (oh look, another reasons I'm pressing kops. How scummy!)
I actually had a question for Chucklez that I've been meaning to ask him but I keep forgetting to (I wonder why?) Chucklez: who did you target last night with your "faith healing" ability and what was the result? If you already answered this earlier, please pardon me, I've been distracted.
*awaits Az's inevitable efforts to spin this in as scummy as way as possible...*
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I suppose it's too much to ask if there was a specific reason for that vote?
DON'T GET ME WRONG, MR. SIR. MY JOKING RESPONSE TO RAF AND MY VOTE FOR YOU WERE SEPERATE ISSUES!
I's been votin' for you on and off for a while, mostly because you haven't exactly been unconvincing in your defense. But Mommy has been watching you since your late start into day 1! A couple of Ozzy's attacks have been off, but ultimately, I agree with enough of it, see?
BUT MOST IMPROTANT IS THE WAY YOU'VE BEEN PURSUING A TREI LYNCH!
Not only does Trei have probably the smallest chance of being mafia other then blue and Puzz(and mommy, of course), but it has been shown before why he isn't likely a SK!
FURTHERMORE, AXIE SAID HE SUSPECT TREI BECAUSE TREI'S CULT IS THE SAME AS DM'S LAST CULT, YA?
Well, if that's so, then it is a reverting cult! It isn't a severe threat, and there is little problem with having viggy do it! See?
BUT YOU ATTACK HIM NOT BECAUSE YOU THINK HE IS CULT LEADER, YA? YOU ATTACK HIM BECAUSE HE IS ANTI-TOWN BY HIS OWN ADMISSION!
And this is supposed to make him a good lynch? Mommy must respectfully disagree. If he is some-kind-of-anti-town but not SK or Mafia for sure, then how is it not the correct play to vig him?
UNLESS YOU WANT TO DISTRACT US FROM YOUR SCUM BUDDIES!
Quote from Axelrod »
Who are the "mafia bad men" that are better choices that we should be lynching? You just voted me. That's not better.
You are missing the point! If Trei is likely non-mafia, and even non-SK, and can likely be dealt with by the vig, then damn near any one of us is a better choice! Mommy says you could even vote for me!
I WOULD <3 A CHUCK LNCH, BUT WE ALL KNOW THAT, HUH?
But what about Machin Shin? Or MossChop? Jobie even! Tycho just went through all the trouble of PBPAing Jobie, let's run him up!
MOMMY SAYS YOU COULD FIND SOMEONE IF YOU WANTED!
No, we can't fabricate a mafia to lynch instantly. That's silly! But we could actually try to pursue the mafia rather then pushing towards obviouse non-mafia, eh?
This is not good. I thought this might be where kops was headed (doc claim), and coupled with Bluesoul's outing earlier today, it's a very precarious position.
To those of you voting Kops: Why? If he's truly the doctor, don't you think he'll be disposed of by the mafia/SK? If he's not, his appearance over the course of the next few days becomes very suspect, we can revisit the case then. Why on earth would we waste our lynch testing this as a false claim when he'll likely die via nightkill?
The problem with this is as follows:
-The town had a RB (assuming we can trust a dead townie)
-Therefore the mafia is more likely to have a RB
-Bluesoul is either cop or playing the craziest gambit EVAR
-With the Cop and a Doc out (and our other doc either a faith healer or lying scum) it's safe for scum to kill one, and RB the other, thus guaranteeing a misslynch down the line
-Therefore, Kops living till morning tells us one of three things
*He's scum false claiming
*He's town and scum are hopping on a misslynch
*He's a neutral (presumably false claiming) and scum are hoping for a misslynch
There is no non WIFOM way of distinguishing which is true
I've seen scum keep scummy looking docs alive before, so it wouldn't surprise me
Sorry for what may be viewed as advising scum, but if a midrange player such as myself could spot such a play, I think it likely that one of ~6 players of indeteriminate skill might too.
Ok folks, your beloved mod has been trying to read the last 20 pages and is ready to cry. According to my vote counts, kops was lynched on page 111, but with an inaccurate vote count due to me being gone, I am going to do the following.
Vote Count
RESET
In all of your next posts, please post a vote ______ or not voting.
I will then redo a current vote count based on what you all post.
Also, if any of you have PM'd me and not received a response yet, please resubmit your question and I will reply.
From here on out, I will endeavor to stay on pace with the game while cleaning, repairing, and selling my old house as well as unpacking in my new house and beginning class again next week. Wish me luck. Please keep in mind if you ask me a question, I may miss it. I prefer to get questions via PM unless they are questions that relate the the game in general and not one role specifically.
I's been votin' for you on and off for a while, mostly because you haven't exactly been unconvincing in your defense. But Mommy has been watching you since your late start into day 1! A couple of Ozzy's attacks have been off, but ultimately, I agree with enough of it, see?
Which parts (if you mean other than what you mention below?)
Quote from CropCircles »
BUT MOST IMPROTANT IS THE WAY YOU'VE BEEN PURSUING A TREI LYNCH!
Not only does Trei have probably the smallest chance of being mafia other then blue and Puzz(and mommy, of course), but it has been shown before why he isn't likely a SK!
See, as far as I can tell, this is really the only thing that means anything. (Some) people disagree that Tregit is a good lynch if his chances of being mafia are small, regardless of his anti-town status. What can I say? I'm not making up my opinion.
I suspect that part of my perspective comes from the fact that I suspected him initially, and then what do you know, he's not town. So I find it hard to let him go because he might "only" be Cult. Frankly, it seems ridiculous to even say something like that.
You can disagree with the perspective and I won't even say you are wrong. I'll just disagree with you (or anyone) telling me I can't have that opinion, or that it's some kind of scum tell. Because it ain't.
This is just one of those areas where people can disagree.
My perspective no doubt is also influenced by the fact that Az (and others) seems to think that I am a better alternative, which I know beyond any doubt is wrong. So it's hard to respect that kind of opinion.
Quote from CropCircles »
FURTHERMORE, AXIE SAID HE SUSPECT TREI BECAUSE TREI'S CULT IS THE SAME AS DM'S LAST CULT, YA?
Well, if that's so, then it is a reverting cult! It isn't a severe threat, and there is little problem with having viggy do it! See?
BUT YOU ATTACK HIM NOT BECAUSE YOU THINK HE IS CULT LEADER, YA? YOU ATTACK HIM BECAUSE HE IS ANTI-TOWN BY HIS OWN ADMISSION!
And this is supposed to make him a good lynch? Mommy must respectfully disagree. If he is some-kind-of-anti-town but not SK or Mafia for sure, then how is it not the correct play to vig him?
May I cry now?
I've been attacking him for being anti-town for a long time, and for his lying to the point where I don't trust him. When I looked up DM's other Cult I noted the similarities. I said (more than once) that if this Cult is the same as that - and Tregit is the CL - then it's not a threat.
I said (just now, right above you, were you even reading?) that the situations might be completely equivilent? I thought you were asking for reasons where they wouldn't be? What are you disagreeing with?
Quote from CropCircles »
You are missing the point! If Trei is likely non-mafia, and even non-SK, and can likely be dealt with by the vig, then damn near any one of us is a better choice! Mommy says you could even vote for me!
I am obviously missing your point. Despite how clearly and precisely you are making it. What makes a "vig" kill better than a lynch? At best they are equivilent. And there are situations where the vig kill wouldn't work or wouldn't be as useful.
DM: you want to know who we are currently voting, or you are just re-setting everything because you don't want to do an actual vote count?
I was voting Tregit. Am I supposed to re-vote?
Vote: Tregit
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
@Axelrod: !C! does not look any scummier by the presence of my role, but I would like to note that D_M's last game had 1 standard doc and no other real protective roles (ignoring the insaneness that was the nerd herd), though that is hardly sufficient evidence. And for clarification, even noting this fact, my first statement still stands.
I also think I really need to take a stance right now also, so vote Jobie
because the several cases against him looked really solid and his bandwagon just died so easily... he didn't even post between it going strong and its death.
I wish I could vote him without making it look like an attempt to divert attention, so I'll explicitly state that that's not why I'm doing it, I'm doing it more to make it known that I'm taking a stance and because I think Jobie has a much higher chance of being mafia-scum than anyone else right now. Honestly, I hardly see a case for mafia against anyone else, !C!'s being mediocre at best in my eyes. At the present, I think the case against Jobie has been pretty well stated, but if anybody would like me to make a new/revised case against him, I can do that.
As I understand it, he's resetting everything. I'm pretty sure that kops was never actually lynched, but I wouldn't complain if it turned out that he was.
Vote kops.
I need to respond to both Az's and Axel's posts, but I don't have time just now. I will remark, though, to Axel, that you're really taking Az's last post or two out of context, and that it isn't helping things. You can't accuse him of assuming a worst case scenario when that's exactly what I asked him to do, and he didn't make any accusations involving kops getting vigged. I think that must have been you reading through your "Az is wrong and always will be" glasses.:)
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Holy crap, I'm glad he's letting us redo this cause there's no way I want kops lynched without at least some more discussion.
Not Voting
I'm really confused by Az vs. Axel, the Rumble in the Jungle, the War on the Forum (hey it's close to rhyming). I had been getting townie vibes from both of them, and now I feel like they've both been looking scummy since they've been at each other's throats. Also, CC had been giving me townine vibes at least since today started, but I don't like the given reason for voting Axel. Also, there's the comment that we can save kops for later and if he's still alive we can get him, in the same post as CC recommends we lynch another claimed doc.
Now, many of us feel that Chucklez is scummy, but doesn't the same reasoning apply? Treigit has a point that a claimed doc being alive says nothing about his alignment. I feel like we need to analyze behavior and what we know, not WIFOM things. Right now, according to behavior and things they have said and done, I feel like we can't trust Treigit, kops, and Chucklez, and Jobie.
I keep getting the sense that Az and Axel are both just misguided townies who are getting pissed off. Az has mentioned our "other prospects" several times, so what I think is that he and Axel should stop with their little feud and try to come up with some other targets/convincing evidence for current targets.
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"Flesh so fine, so fine to tear, to gash the skin; skin to strip, to plait, so nice to plait the strips, so nice, so red the drops that fall; blood so red, so red, so sweet; sweet screams, pretty screams, singing screams, scream your song, sing your screams…” - The Eye of the World - Robert Jordan
Az. you are wearing your blinders wrong. They're not supposed to completely cover your eyes, just block your vision so you can only see in one direction.
So now the fact that I was critical of Tregit early is also an indicator of mafianess? Are you now conceding that Tregit looked scummy?
I am not arguing that the fact that Tregit has conceded he is anti-town is any kind of evidence in my favor. But, far from being a point in my favor, you seem to think it's a point against me, as though a mafia would be more likely than a regular townie to sense something was wrong with Tregit.
This is why there's no arguing with you. You will just view everything I say or do through your mafia-colored glasses.
Again, ridiculous. You won't give an inch. You will twist anything anyone says and/or ignore it when the facts simply don't agree. MD clearly said he random voted. I pressed him on that very question multiple times because I wanted to know the answer first. It was key.
And you just dismiss it with "well, maybe his version of Random didn't mean what you think it means." And then continue to maintain against all reasonableness that my particular vote on MD was somehow scummier than other peoples.
I have pointed out now that if there is a Cult, based on DM's last game, there appears to be good reason to believe Tregit is the Leader. If he is, and Cult recruits revert to town after his death, then you are correct that there is no impending threat. But how can we know for sure? How will we ever know if we don't lynch him? He's been inspected and come up Neutral. We aren't getting more information on that front, unless there are other abilities floating around to give us something.
If we were wrong about this particularly crucial fact, the idea that we can simply eliminate the Cult at will anytime we want is flatly wrong.
This is not to say that a Cult is a greater threat than a mafia. Please do not put those words in my mouth. But sometimes a Bird in hand is better, etc., etc.
I don't think you will find people who are arguing that it is better to lynch mafia. The criticism is the idea that you can just ignore this Cult until some unspecified point in the future. ANd then lynch/night-kill them at will. Your language, first pursue the mafia, then later we can turn on the Cult, presumes we can pick and choose. You constantly blow this off "what I mean is that we can "try" to lynch one or the other", but then you go right back to the same language you have always been using.
If it were going to be done at all, sooner is better than later. Unless you were sure of the Leader and sure the recruits would revert.
Again with the fear mongering. "Too close to the edge...." And then again, maybe we'll wake up with 2 dead mafia toworrow (go go SK and Vig!)
No, it's only if you assume the worst. And if you assume the worst, we lose no matter what.
Who is actively advocating a Lynch Tregit Vig kops plan right now? You keep saying this like it's a foregone conclusion (and like they are both confirmed townies - except for possibly being Cult - and like it was my idea).
Then you assume a mislynch and two dead townies each night with no crossfire. Gee, I think we would lose if that kept happening. 4 mislynches? Average of 3 town dead every Night. What is your point again? That with careful play we might get another Day?
This is infuriating. You really, really want me to have said that I want kops to be vigged, because it makes such a nice argument for how terrible "my" plan was/is, which was never my plan, but maybe if you keep saying it someone will mistakenly think it was, but, unfortunately for you I never said anything like that.
So you then attempt to construe a request for a claim as a request for kops to be vigged. Wonderful logic. Clearly if I asked him to claim anything then I'm suspicious, and clearly if I'm suspicious then (1) I'm wrong because kops is nothing except possibly friendly Cult and (2) that means I want him to be vigged.
Why do I ever ask someone for something? To evaluate their claim, and specifically to evaluate it against the backdrop of what they have already said in the game. As a "way-point" on the path to being vigged? Yes, that makes sense.
You are too far gone to be persuaded of anything, clearly, but this is just for people who are still paying attention.
Your wonderful logic means that anyone asking for a claim ever is scummy. Wait, you don't mean that. It's just me. Right, I get it.
Why I wanted to know specifically what his claim was after he said he was a "power" role? You don't see why a town player might possibly ask that question? More to the point, are you saying you saw nothing suspicious about him at all, aside from his possibly signaling to Tregit?
You are stretching to make an argument that is not there simply for the purpose of viewing everything I do in the most negative light.
I'll tell you this much, I always have reasons for everything I do.
Oh good, a "short" statement of the case. Let's see it again:
Wait, by "your" way of thinking? Isn't that an invalid/subjective response?
I explained this several times. Trying to slant my vote on MD as somehow worse than other players, when it was probably more justified, is just you being unable to be objective.
"Suicide" in three more days you mean. Assuming Tregit is "only" a harmless Cultist, and assuming we mislynch 2 more times on Days 3 and 4 and assuming that we lose 3 "town" (or harmless Cult) tonight (counting kops who I clearly am asking to be vigged and you know I always get what I want), and then 2 more "town" (or harmless Cult) on each succeeding Night and assuming a 6 man mafia (as opposed to 2 mafias)and assuming no Mafia/SK crossfire tonight, tomorrow or the Night after.
Your right. It's suicide. How could any reasonable person fail to see it. I must be scum.
No, I wasn't. Which actions were you talking about again? Voting for MD? Voting for Tregit? Asking kops to clarify his "power role" claim?
Your arguments are over-exaggerated, misguided, and plain wrong. So I say so. I have pointed out ad nauseaum the places where you have over-stepped yourself, exaggerated and twisted in your zeal to try and paint me as scum. You barely acknowledge my replies.
And saying that I'm "evading" answering? I would laugh if other people weren't taking you seriously.
The problem with this is as follows:
-The town had a RB (assuming we can trust a dead townie)
-Therefore the mafia is more likely to have a RB
-Bluesoul is either cop or playing the craziest gambit EVAR
-With the Cop and a Doc out (and our other doc either a faith healer or lying scum) it's safe for scum to kill one, and RB the other, thus guaranteeing a misslynch down the line
-Therefore, Kops living till morning tells us one of three things
*He's scum false claiming
*He's town and scum are hopping on a misslynch
*He's a neutral (presumably false claiming) and scum are hoping for a misslynch
There is no non WIFOM way of distinguishing which is true
I've seen scum keep scummy looking docs alive before, so it wouldn't surprise me
Sorry for what may be viewed as advising scum, but if a midrange player such as myself could spot such a play, I think it likely that one of ~6 players of indeteriminate skill might too.
My dear Treigit, in your scenarios above, if he's the doctor, wouldn't "mislynching" him today cause the same effect as mislynching him days from now? Dead townie doc. In the interim, we might lynch or vig the proposed mafia RB (you're even speculating here without factual basis to promote the case), forcing their hand. The SK might decide not to play guessing games with the mafia on whether or not they have said roleblocker and take him out on the premise he could be the doc. Heck, the SK may take him out on the premise he thinks he's the Cult Leader. There are solutions to determining his true role that don't involve direct risk to the town wasting their lynch.
So I ask you: what is the point in lynching the potential doctor? This play is wrong on so many levels.
If you can present a logical reason why he is more likely mafia than doc or Cult Leader- have at it. Until someone convinces me of that, I'll contest that voting Kops is a terrible play.
Not Voting. At least not anymore. Based on the Axel/Az confrontation I really want to do something. However, I think Az'd ban me if I did it to him. (And if he were a mod obv. :rolleyes:)
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Mafia Stats (10-22 Overall) Random Mafia 2 Town MVP '08 MTGS Fantasy Football Overall Champion Best Non-SK Neutral Performance (Individual)
IF KOPS SMELLS LIKE A LIAR, HE'S LIKELY THE LEADER, YA?
Mommy taught me that recruits have falseclaims ready. Their originl roles! So the one that's lying about his role is the bad man! kops says XandY, so that's him!
BUTWAITWAITWAITITGETSBETTER!!!!!
There's nothing saying that kops and Trei have to be connected, ya? But what Jimmy tells us is that kops is lying! He could be mafia, he could be cult, he could be SK, he could even be Paris Hilton! But what thing is for sure. He's a lying bad man!
I'd prefer it at this point that we lynch Kops, see if he's the CL. If he isn't CL (Lene), we vig Treigit. If he is CL, we let Treigit live through the night.
This entire post reeks of evasion and distraction, but I'll quote the bait. If you want to claim the judgly god responsible for my hard choice, do so. It's certainly bitter mercy.
I'm adverse to kops aversion to the x claim. FOS. I am god of x not y.
Treigit's CL Lene claim seems calculated. It's based on known pantheons. It discredits AS and Treigit. Here is my late night theory: It's based on the assumption that the time breadcrumbs reveal our suspects as cultists.
Treigit and Kops fall under suspicion and the concensus becomes lynch one, vig the other. At this point the only logical play is for the two of them to attempt to lynch the recruit, and hope something stops the vig. So treigit does something scummy and distracting. Because he's the recruit.
Because of this, I support a kops lynch, and a treigit vig. My standing vote on kops is no longer for pressure alone.
I'll wait to hear kops, but it seems like the right play here is to lynch whichever one of them is more likely to be the leader, then vig the other if we're wrong. Thoughts?
As I understand it, he's resetting everything. I'm pretty sure that kops was never actually lynched, but I wouldn't complain if it turned out that he was.
Vote kops.
I need to respond to both Az's and Axel's posts, but I don't have time just now. I will remark, though, to Axel, that you're really taking Az's last post or two out of context, and that it isn't helping things. You can't accuse him of assuming a worst case scenario when that's exactly what I asked him to do, and he didn't make any accusations involving kops getting vigged. I think that must have been you reading through your "Az is wrong and always will be" glasses.:)
Well, if I have misunderstood something, sorry, but it seems to me he is still loudly maintaining it's "suicide" to lynch someone who might be Cult today as opposed to mafia. But then even under his own "worst case" scenario it really isn't suicide, and his "worst case" scenario doesn't appear very likely to begin with. What am I taking out of context?
Almost every post of his (which are all attacking me) mentions the horrible consequences of Lynch/Vig. Tregit/kops plan. He has called it my plan. He keeps bring it up like I am arguing with him about it. I point out it was not my plan. Then he says I was "non-committal." Then he says that my asking kops for his claim is practically tantamount to asking for him to be vigged. I don't think I'm mistaking his meaning at all.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
These are both from 1840. (the post, not the year)
Quote from Machin Shin »
I'm really confused by Az vs. Axel, the Rumble in the Jungle, the War on the Forum (hey it's close to rhyming). I had been getting townie vibes from both of them, and now I feel like they've both been looking scummy...
Quote from Machin Shin »
I keep getting the sense that Az and Axel are both just misguided townies who are getting pissed off.
Fos: Machin Shin. Stop fence sitting or we'll turn on the electricity. Actually, I can't speak for everyone else, but I might get upset enough to vote you.
I manage to agree with both of them at the same time. Axel says that Azrael exaggerates, and he most certainly has. Az says that Axel has made personal attacks rather than answer points, and that is true as well. To me, the most obvious reason for both Az and Axel to be right about at least some of their points is that they're both town, and their little tiff reached a point where they both started losing their tempers and trying their best to construe everything the other said as scummy. I'm not "fence-sitting," I've declared my position. I'm not sure it's necessarily a case of either/or here, so I've said I think it's neither. Oh, and did you just happen to miss the other place in that post where I listed all the people I'm suspicious of at the moment, once again declaring a position? I'd vote you but it could be construed as OMGUS, so for now FOS: Abandon Hope
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"Flesh so fine, so fine to tear, to gash the skin; skin to strip, to plait, so nice to plait the strips, so nice, so red the drops that fall; blood so red, so red, so sweet; sweet screams, pretty screams, singing screams, scream your song, sing your screams…” - The Eye of the World - Robert Jordan
Currently voting Kops
Willing to lynch: !C!
Can easily see myself being persuaded to lynch: Axel, Jobie
(It looks bad that my prefered lynches are both claimed docs, though that is the best false claim for scum)
Responding to DYH, sorry if anyone else has asked me recently
It's definetly possible that he is the doc. You proposed not lynching him and using his surival as a criterion for guilt/innocence. I admit I failed to factor the SK into these scenarios, though I belive the game I 'm referencing (Kirby on Scum) included an active SK when the Doc was allowed to live. Axel, do you know off hand?
DYH, I've already provided the case on why I think he's likely scum. Would you care to refute the case, or provide a case on why he's most likely doc?
Axel, I think you've got a bit too locked into Az, to the point where it's become "Az is scum because he doesn't want to do the same thing as me". He might be, but he might not. Your ongoing argument with Az is a distraction; at least one of you should realise that.
What do you think of arimnaes and DYH, btw?
Oh, and one more thing- I 100% do not advocate the automatic vigging of Treigit as some of my fellow kops-bandwagon members have been doing. The only scenario where it would seem to make sense to vig Treigit immediately is if kops comes up as a cult member but NOT the leader, as that would imply Treigit as cult leader.
I manage to agree with both of them at the same time. Axel says that Azrael exaggerates, and he most certainly has. Az says that Axel has made personal attacks rather than answer points, and that is true as well. To me, the most obvious reason for both Az and Axel to be right about at least some of their points is that they're both town, and their little tiff reached a point where they both started losing their tempers and trying their best to construe everything the other said as scummy. I'm not "fence-sitting," I've declared my position. I'm not sure it's necessarily a case of either/or here, so I've said I think it's neither. Oh, and did you just happen to miss the other place in that post where I listed all the people I'm suspicious of at the moment, once again declaring a position? I'd vote you but it could be construed as OMGUS, so for now FOS: Abandon Hope
Overeact much? OMGUS doesn't only apply to votes. What you've said in this post isn't what you said in the post I quoted. In the post I quoted you endorsed different contradictory possibilities as your opinion. It's great you've clarified, but the original still reflects badly. But you aren't sitting fence anymore.
Not Voting. At least not anymore. Based on the Axel/Az confrontation I really want to do something. However, I think Az'd ban me if I did it to him. (And if he were a mod obv. :rolleyes:)
Mmm hmm. One WoLG is quite enough for this forum, thank you very much. *winces*
Almost every post of his (which are all attacking me) mentions the horrible consequences of Lynch/Vig. Tregit/kops plan. He has called it my plan.
I am going to keep my response to Axel brief and focused, in deference to those who are having trouble keeping up.
I would appreciate if you would cite exactly where I stated it was your plan.
Quote from Axelrod »
He keeps bring it up like I am arguing with him about it. I point out it was not my plan. Then he says I was "non-committal." Then he says that my asking kops for his claim is practically tantamount to asking for him to be vigged. I don't think I'm mistaking his meaning at all.
I'm afraid that you are mistaking my meaning, either deliberately or accidentally. I can't recall where I might have attributed the plan as yours. I certainly haven't recently. What I have been doing is opposing your defense of the plan, your framing of it as an acceptable risk. Whether you came up with it originally is not rrelevant, you've been arguing quite strenuously that it is a viable course of action.
Secondly, I don't equate your asking Kops for a claim as tantamount to a vig request. You have misrepresented me here.
This is one of the points where you have repeatedly been evasive: without a strong case that Kops is mafia, why would we want him to claim? I have asked this question several times. You have yet to answer. Therefore, I was left to wonder if you might be requesting a claim in order to pave the way for a vigging, or in order to expose a townie power role. Because even if we believe that he is cult, we would not want him to claim. And if we believe he is mafia, then that case needs to be made, separately. So far it has not.
I manage to agree with both of them at the same time. Axel says that Azrael exaggerates, and he most certainly has. Az says that Axel has made personal attacks rather than answer points, and that is true as well. To me, the most obvious reason for both Az and Axel to be right about at least some of their points is that they're both town, and their little tiff reached a point where they both started losing their tempers and trying their best to construe everything the other said as scummy. I'm not "fence-sitting," I've declared my position. I'm not sure it's necessarily a case of either/or here, so I've said I think it's neither. Oh, and did you just happen to miss the other place in that post where I listed all the people I'm suspicious of at the moment, once again declaring a position? I'd vote you but it could be construed as OMGUS, so for now FOS: Abandon Hope
Neither of us has to be scum. Axelrod may not be scum. This would not be the first time I've been wrong.
But I very much disagree with your belief that anger has "blinded" me. With all due respect, I am constantly aware of the dangers posed by letting emotions get the better of my logic. And I am quite conscious of how angry I may or may not be, at any given moment. The accusation that I've been "blinded by anger" is actually a good deal more likely to anger me then any of the strategies Axelrod has been employing.
If he's scum, he's simply using effective tactics. And he would be perfectly within his bounds. If they are frustratingly effective, then so much the better for him. I would respect and admire his craftsmanship either way.
If he's town, then he's employing a perspective that I think quite inarguably benefits the mafia (you can argue that it also greatly benefits the town, but getting the town to eliminate cult members instead of them is undoubtedly in the mafia's best interests), but there would be no use becoming angry with him when he's simply trying to guide the town as best he can.
Now, in some people's minds, I may be exaggerating the dangers of killing possible cultists. I may be using loaded words, such as "suicide", to describe it. But it is plain and simple fact that such a course of action benefits the mafia. And as I am a competitive-minded person, I am viscerally opposed to any action that benefits the mafia and brings us closer to defeat.
My point is, even if you think I am exaggerating the danger, the danger does exist. And because the danger does exist, that piece of my case against Axelrod remains valid. This is why players like Cropcircles have been joining the wagon against Axelrod, despite their belief that I may be getting a little carried away. Getting carried away does not necessarily mean that I'm wrong, or that I'm failing to take other perspectives into account.
If there were any other points at which you believe I was exaggerating I would greatly appreciate it if you would point them out.
Or if there are points in my case that you believe are incorrect, or unconvincing, would you mind detailing them?
Quote from Rafaelk »
Your ongoing argument with Az is a distraction; at least one of you should realise that.
A growing number of the town seem to believe that it is not a distraction. May I ask why you believe that it is? There has been a steadily growing case made for Axelrod being scum, and if you don't agree with it, then why not defend him?
Quote from Arimnaes »
I wouldn't say that. If we lynch Jobie, the vig can have his pick of Chucklez and/or kops, as far as I'm concerned.
[Edit]
TOTALLY forgot kops just claimed doc (that is a doc claim, right?)
In that case, vig just hit Chucklez.
Chucklez didn't claim full doc. I haven't written him off my last of suspects, but I'm not sure whether we want to sic the vig on him or not. I could go either way. Mostly I'm just trying to figure out whether it's the type of role that DM might have included, and wondering what other protection roles the town has that might let us figure out whether chucklez fits into the balance somehow (the number of NKs we'll end up facing also factors in).
Machin Shin, I thought that post of yours was scummy as well... FOS: Machin Shin - Yeah, even after it's been clarified I still find it scummy.
We have 2 claimed docs, woot. This'll be extra fun for us. Kops, now that you have claimed doc, could you lay out what makes your doc claim different from !C!'s doc claim?
Chucklez's claim was that he had a higher percentage of successful protections based on the number of greek gods that are alive. Kops has claimed a standard doctor role.
Quote from Kenji »
Axel, Az, stop it. Just stop. Ah, no. Stop. Don't rip this thread apart in a battle of ego. Just let it be for once.
Again, with respect, I am simply trying to play the game to the best of my ability. This has nothing to do with ego, or anger with Axelrod, for whom I have a great deal of respect as a player.
If you think I am making a play mistake, could you possibly explain why and where?
Quote from Kenji »
I realise this speculation might have already been done but if we have a cult, then we have had 2 nights, so shouldn't we have 2 recuits plus a leader? At most we have 2suspected cult members, aren't we missing a third?
Now, without a third membering coming forward [I'm assuming there isn't one, they've had an age to come forward] we have to assume that the third cult member thinks it best to stay hidden. Open question, why would it be best for said third member to stay hidden?
Possibly they don't want to be vigged or SKed by anyone? Possibly they don't want attention drawn to themselves, for whatever reason?
@Kenji: In regards to a third cultist, it's also possible that the CL targeted one of the deceased last night, or targeted someone who for whatever reason can't be recruited, or is untargetable.
Quote from Kenji »
Where is !C!?
Lurking?
Although I think he said he has an actual reason, which I can respect. He's moving house, or something.
This is one of the points where you have repeatedly been evasive: without a strong case that Kops is mafia, why would we want him to claim?
I think there's a strong case. He lied to us and I can't get a satisfactory answer out of him as to why he'd signal Treigit like that. Feel free to explain on his behalf why the heck he'd behave like that if he's the townie doctor.
Neither of us has to be scum.
This is my current working assumption. It may be wrong.
Now, in some people's minds, I may be exaggerating the dangers of killing possible cultists. I may be using loaded words, such as "suicide", to describe it. But it is plain and simple fact that such a course of action benefits the mafia. And as I am a competitive-minded person, I am viscerally opposed to any action that benefits the mafia and brings us closer to defeat.
It's clearly bad to kill cultists besides the leader. I don't agree that it's bad to remove the cult leader, especially when said person may in fact be mafia. If he's cult leader, the mafia would be sure of it by now, and they can kill him last of all. They have no reason to kill him any earlier.
A growing number of the town seem to believe that it is not a distraction. May I ask why you believe that it is? There has been a steadily growing case made for Axelrod being scum, and if you don't agree with it, then why not defend him?
No information and I don't even agree with everything he's said. Why should I stick up for him? I learn from at least SOME of my past mistakes.
I believe it's a distraction, though, because I don't see either of you as serious lynch targets for today. People, as ever, are fully capable of disagreeing. Him pushing at you today in particular is a distraction, and the remark was addressed to him.
Chucklez didn't claim full doc. I haven't written him off my last of suspects, but I'm not sure whether we want to sic the vig on him or not.
And this is where I remain unsure about you. This is exactly not the time to be trying to put it in someone's head to vig someone you can't even muster enough certainty to have lynched. If you want him lynched, try to run him up and make your arguments. Otherwise, no. We've had one misvig already from that sort of thing.
wondering what other protection roles the town has that might let us figure out whether chucklez fits into the balance somehow
Wonder away. Privately.
Possibly they don't want to be vigged or SKed by anyone? Possibly they don't want attention drawn to themselves, for whatever reason?
Well, there's an interesting point here- if the other one also thinks they'll revert to town, why not out themselves? But of course, there may not be another one- most cults have people they cannot recruit, especially mafia members (random 1 being an exception due to the existance of the Gottlieb role, and that game is a testament as to exactly why the mafia are usually not recruitable), and the leader might have hit one of those.
So this is the post I composed earlier and was waiting to hear from Puzzle and Raf before posting (though before Kops revealed the X/Y deception):
Raf makes a good point about Kops signalling as scum.
This?
Quote from RafK »
If he's scum, he would have to assume Treigit was a townie looking for someone, someone he thought it was safe to put out a signal for. God knows we've had enough games in the last year involving townies looking for other townies.
So he signals back to indicate he's Treigit's buddy or whatever. As mafia, it's nice to have a townie who's on your side.
It's risky, but the point is that kops DID signal, and any theory as to his behaviour has to be based on that. I think he would have a good reason to do it as a mafia, it muddied the water for the ability of someone he would have assumed was town and potentially won the trust of a non-mafia. I can't see why he would do it as a townie exactly because it muddies the water if he made a signal which had nothing to do with his real role; his explanation has been distinctly poor thus far.
No he doesn't, really; it's all baseless set-up speculation. I'm more willing to buy kops' horrid explanation that he was simply breadcrumbing back at Treigit to show he thought he knew what he was talking about than I am that he did it on this type of gambit. He was very anxious day one to leave some sort of hint behind to his role as a result of what happened to him in Sympathy for the Devil mafia. As a newer player, it's certainly feasible that he wanted to express that he'd picked up on this. You'll also remember he pointed out the ISISGODOFMAGIC crumb.
Quote from Treigit »
There are also some dificulties with his signaling indicating CL. The cult has nothing to do with time, I'm not entierly sure why he would have seen that as a signal to him. The CL had the option of communicating with me last night (or so DM implied), but decided not to. If you're having no communication with your recruit, why signal.
Furthermore, I'm more likely inclined to believe it's a cult signal than a scum signal if it's one at all, and Treigit is making up more stuff. Is there a reason you left out the fact the CL could communicate with you earlier, Treigit?He chose not to? Really?Finding that very hard to believe.
Quote from Treigit »
While the distancing/double standard still seems suspcious, I suppose it could have instead been fence sitting. While it is certainly still reasonable that he could be CL, non cult scum seems more likely. (Scum instead of town because of the X/Y inconsistancy suggesting false claim.)
Treigit, you lost me with the fence-sitting piece. I do so enjoy the false dilemma you set up here- "He could be CL, but non-cult scum seems more likely". Umm, what about the third option, you know, his actual doctor claim? (I've ignored the text in parentheses because that's really what you're trying to accomplish by putting said statement in parentheses.)
It's interesting that you're trying so hard to paint him as scum and backing off the CL idea now, though. Noted.
Quote from Treigit »
The biggest thing that's not explained is the D&D coincidence, but they do happen. Also why did none of his scum buddies claim X and Y?
We've already seen multiple gods from the same Pantheon (glasswright), I'm not sure what's wrong with his D&D claim. This follow-up question actually helps damn your case from the perspective if you actually think anyone would bail him out on that.
Quote from Treigit »
I also want to hear why Kops deceieved us about his role name, and further why he didn't clear this up earlier. He had three posts after I brought up the X Y inconsitancy and people began to claim. Perhaps he thought that since there were only 4 people that'd claimed, either others wouldn't get on board, or someone would have x and y.
For what it's worth, I was going to false-claim with my doctor role in Star Trek mafia, and I really wish I had. It was going to be Tasha Yar, martial arts specialist with a retalitory kill. *sigh* hindsight.
I'd find it very hard to believe that if kops was scum, he was using a false claim provided by DM, given the obvious flaw in it.
Quote from Treigit »
vote Kops you'd better hope you can confirm your 'ability.'
And I don't think you're in any position to be making demands of people, Treigit. Right now, you're only alive because we can't afford to waste a lynch on a neutral. Everyone should keep your alignment in mind, as just because you're not technically scum, doesn't mean you're thinking like a "townie". I really need to learn to become more assertive - you should've been swinging day one instead of MD_.
I think there's a strong case. He lied to us and I can't get a satisfactory answer out of him as to why he'd signal Treigit like that. Feel free to explain on his behalf why the heck he'd behave like that if he's the townie doctor.
*shrugs* No rational reason that I can think of. But if he's scum, I'd lean towards cult, not mafia. That's the case I haven't seen yet, and it's equally hard for me to imagine a good (sorry) explanation why he would signal as mafia.
Quote from Rafaelk »
It's clearly bad to kill cultists besides the leader. I don't agree that it's bad to remove the cult leader, especially when said person may in fact be mafia. If he's cult leader, the mafia would be sure of it by now, and they can kill him last of all. They have no reason to kill him any earlier.
Yeah, I can see where you're coming here. It's quite possible to argue that removing the cult leader does the town some good.
But what I'm asking in response, is does that good outweigh the favor we'll be doing to the mafia, by bringing them closer to achieving their win condition?
Quote from Rafaelk »
No information and I don't even agree with everything he's said. Why should I stick up for him? I learn from at least SOME of my past mistakes.
I believe it's a distraction, though, because I don't see either of you as serious lynch targets for today. People, as ever, are fully capable of disagreeing. Him pushing at you today in particular is a distraction, and the remark was addressed to him.
Eh. Fair.
Quote from Rafaelk »
And this is where I remain unsure about you. This is exactly not the time to be trying to put it in someone's head to vig someone you can't even muster enough certainty to have lynched. If you want him lynched, try to run him up and make your arguments. Otherwise, no. We've had one misvig already from that sort of thing.
I wouldn't have mentioned vigging at all, except that in Arimnaes' post he called for the vig to target Chucklez (without asking input from the rest of hte town). My post was meant to discourage that.
Quote from Rafaelk »
Wonder away. Privately.
I intend to. Privately.
Quote from Rafaelk »
Well, there's an interesting point here- if the other one also thinks they'll revert to town, why not out themselves? But of course, there may not be another one- most cults have people they cannot recruit, especially mafia members (random 1 being an exception due to the existance of the Gottlieb role, and that game is a testament as to exactly why the mafia are usually not recruitable), and the leader might have hit one of those.
Possibly. Did HS come after or before Random 1, though? If it came afterwards, and DM was watching, he might have altered his cult designs. Otherwise, it seems more unlikely that he would have changed his philosophy.
So unless the mafia are unrecruitable, it would seem mildly coincidental to have happened already, unless there's a large number of other unrecruitables. And if there are, then I don't envy the cult's chances.
Axel, I think you've got a bit too locked into Az, to the point where it's become "Az is scum because he doesn't want to do the same thing as me". He might be, but he might not. Your ongoing argument with Az is a distraction; at least one of you should realise that.
What do you think of arimnaes and DYH, btw?
Have you got this reversed, Raf? Do you mean to say that Az is locked into me? Because throughout this entire affair I have been pointedly not making the argument that Azrael must be some kind of scum for this attack on me. I don't have a strong feeling about that. I think he might just be misguided. I don't immediately recall a time when we butted heads and we were both on the same side - possibly Kamigawa mafia where again, he expressed an opinion I might be scum. But that time I really went off on him (wrongly) and I became quite convinced he was scum as a result.
Which makes this an unusual position for me.
Are you asking my opinion of DHY or Az's? Right now my opinion is that most everyone else is getting a free pass while this debate rages on.
Quote from Azrael »
I'm afraid that you are mistaking my meaning, either deliberately or accidentally. I can't recall where I might have attributed the plan as yours. I certainly haven't recently. What I have been doing is opposing your defense of the plan, your framing of it as an acceptable risk. Whether you came up with it originally is not rrelevant, you've been arguing quite strenuously that it is a viable course of action.
This statement applies to the argument for lynching/vigging Treigit/kops merely on suspicion of their being cult (which I find rather likely). The case for Treigit as mafia+cult w/ scum status hidden or for Kops as non-cult scum of some kind has been voiced before, but I remain luke-warm towards that sentiment as it remains largely unjustified. I think the greater evidence points towards cult-dom, but not necessarily mafia-hood, yet.
Vote Azrael.
This would be the first post (I think) where you refer to this "plan" in response to one of my posts. Here you do not directly attribute it to me, but by saying your statement applies to "the argument" for lynching/vigging in a response to my post, it certainly makes it sound as though I was the one making that argument.
Apparently, you no longer want to argue over your plan to kill Treigit and possibly Kops as well. It doesn't look like you want to justify your timing either.
Here is where you specifically call it my plan. I assume your point is that you didn't actually say it was my plan to kill kops, you just said "possibly" kill kops? I see. You think I'm being unfair?
Nor will you find me "defending" the "plan" as an acceptable risk? I just didn't say that. So what am I supposed to do when you say stuff like this?
It was not long ago, by the way.
Quote from Azrael »
Secondly, I don't equate your asking Kops for a claim as tantamount to a vig request. You have misrepresented me here.
Really?
Quote from Azrael »
And why would we want to know Kops' claim, if we aren't going to kill him? *looks bored, stirs coffee*
What was that?
And you further pushed that idea later. Saying either I wanted him to claim to expose a town power role (bad) or claim as a mid-point on the way to also vigging him (also bad). You sarcastically asked me which was it, I think, which is when I asked you when you stopped beating your wife.
I am simply not being misrepresentative, Az.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
This would be the first post (I think) where you refer to this "plan" in response to one of my posts. Here you do not directly attribute it to me, but by saying your statement applies to "the argument" for lynching/vigging in a response to my post, it certainly makes it sound as though I was the one making that argument.
You were certainly defending it at that point. Surely you can agree that it's not a far leap from "defending" to "making the argument"?
Quote from Axelrod »
Here is where you specifically call it my plan. I assume your point is that you didn't actually say it was my plan to kill kops, you just said "possibly" kill kops? I see. You think I'm being unfair?
Nor will you find me "defending" the "plan" as an acceptable risk? I just didn't say that. So what am I supposed to do when you say stuff like this?
As I recall, I asked for a post in which I said you actually came up with the plan.
[/nitpick]
You can still have and endorse a plan, and not be the person who came up with it. You simply have to be the most noticeable person touting it. I can completely understand how it would be easy to mistake the intent there, though. It's used both ways.
Quote from Axelrod »
It was not long ago, by the way.
*shrug* Almost a week, and over a hundred posts. Decide for yourself if that's long, or not, in the context of this argument.
Quote from Axelrod »
What was that?
And you further pushed that idea later. Saying either I wanted him to claim to expose a town power role (bad) or claim as a mid-point on the way to also vigging him (also bad). You sarcastically asked me which was it, I think, which is when I asked you when you stopped beating your wife.
I am simply not being misrepresentative, Az.
Yes, I wondered about that, because either of those would be compelling goals for the mafia. And, you still have not answered what your motive would be as a townie, and I can't easily imagine one. Which leaves fishing for a possible kill, or fishing for a power role as the easiest explanations I can think of.
If you can supply another, that would be much appreciated.
But what I'm asking in response, is does that good outweigh the favor we'll be doing to the mafia, by bringing them closer to achieving their win condition?
So are you saying we shouldn't lynch the CL until all the mafia are dead? By then (when and if the mafia are all dead) I'm pretty sure the cult would've out numbered the town.
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Quote from chamber »
If it's not math, then it's probably a lie.
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I was didn't think it was a good idea to let out that I was a protective role based only on a nameclaim, though I suppose I probably should have claimed Arvoreen and nothing else, but 20/20 hindsight...
See above, clearing it up would have let on that I was a protective role and I didn't want that getting out unless it was absolutely necessary.
Vote Azrael.
So kops, how likely do you think it to be that both "your" role, and the role Chucklez has claimed to be in the game and on the side of the town? Assuming, for the moment (if you yourself are not a "standard" Doc - which you have made it sound like you aren't) that there is also a standard Doc in the game.
Last chance to answer; this is the #1 dodgiest thing you've done, it's the source of the wagon on you etc etc. If you can adequately explain why you signalled Treigit, I'm prepared to back off.
If you can't, that claim (especially with the subtitle issues) won't save you. Doc claim from cornered scum is very, very common, and I don't like your reasons for the subtitle thing at all.
One because unless your real subtitle is "god of doctors" or something I doubt it's a real giveaway, names rarely give away ability in games here. Two, scum or town you're right, you were better off just claiming the name Arvoreen- but that your instinct was to deceive rather than to just not give away info is telling.
Leading the witness, your honour!
And also, what an assumption, that kops' role is a non-standard doc and that there would definitely be a standard doc role in this game.
No. The problem I have is that, from your perspective, I don't understand how you consider his voting record to be all that awful. Considering what you know about Treigit, it isn't completely unreasonable to see a bandwagon form on him. Axel has clearly been well ahead of the curve with his evaluation of Treigit.
Because as a townie, he specifically said that he didn't target you because he'd heard your name before. While that may have been an acceptable rationale, he specifically denied it. MD really did choose you completely at random, according to his own claim, and that really was an unlikely story. Especially when weighed against the possibility of the mafia urging him to block you, which is pretty darn likely in any given game.
I hate that I'm arguing against a known townie, because I did not, at the time, think that the case against MD was very good, and would love to condemn Axel for it, but of all the reasons to be suspicious of MD, the ones Axel chose were the best ones. If I had understood this reason fully at the time, I might have changed my vote, too.
I'm sorry if that was unclear. I meant the risk, to the town, of killing Treigit, regardless of what his role may (assuming it isn't mafia), not the risk of killing Treigit and finding out that he's town. In other words, not the odds that he's "non-mafia," which I consider extremely high, but the odds of his lynch hurting the town in their overall bid to win the game.
I thought that you were talking about the same risk, though I suppose I was mistaken.
I have read all your posts. The problem is that you've used numbers like that without putting them together into a reason why "9-10 to lynch, and 6 mafia" is any worse than "9-10 lynch, and 5 mafia and a cult." Axelrod actually did that.
I pointed out that given your own worst case scenario, there isn't reason to think that we will reach Lynch or Lose before Day 5, regardless of whether we go after the cult or not. That doesn't sound like a giant step. To me, it sounds like a risk we'll have to take at some point, anyway.
The way I see it, the ideal situation would be to lynch either cult, SK, or mafia every day from now until we win. From now, we have room for one mislynch to accomplish all that, unless we get the SK early, according to your own worst-case scenario. Now, from my perspective, choosing not to lynching the cult that we know in favor of lynching a mafia that we don't know smacks of suicide. We will have a significantly better idea of who the mafia are in future days, if for no other reason than because a bunch of other players have died. On the other hand, are knowledge of the cult's head will never be better, so we may as well blow that head off, rather than potentially waste our only margin for error.
If you honestly contend that the cult would be dealt with by the mafia, then we have a margin of error of two mislynches (barring other considerations that may come up in the future). But even assuming this, all the mafia have to do is hold out in this game of chicken longer than us, because their doom from cult domination is always further away than ours. Once we choose not to lynch the cult, the mafia just need to wait until we mislynch once, and all our margin of error is suddenly gone; dependant on the mafia to do us a favor in order to regain it.
The problem is that you really are exaggerating. I don't disagree entirely with your case against Axelrod; the only part I have a major issue with is condemning him for his behavior against MD, but there are a lot of minor issues that you have not given full consideration to, in which you overstate your case. If Axel is exploiting these, it isn't because they aren't there.
In any case, if your goal is to get the town to "fully investigate him" rather than to just lynch him, then I lost that point somewhere. Axel hasn't shown any tendency that I've seen to avoid answering questions from the gallery. If you want a fuller investigation than what can be gained with that, you'll probably need to wait until night. If not, then what still needs to be investigated?
From what I see, your case against him consists of:
1. A mediocre voting record
2. Your rationale that the cult is a bad target for the town
3. The fact that he is impatient with your PBPA-style of discussion and gets pissy about it in the thread.
4. A whole slew of points that might be condemning if you had some way to connect them, but mean little standing alone.
Mafia MVP BM Mafia
Mafia MVP Matrix Mafia
Ahead of the curve in identifying him as likely cult? The mafia have just as much incentive to pick off scummy acting non-mafia as the town does, but the difference between the two is that it's much easier for mafia to focus in on the non-mafia than it is for the town to distinguish which is which. So usually, a mafia player will be "ahead of the curve" in identifying neutrals and the like.
I'm not sure that's exactly true. He used the word "random" twice to describe his choice, but does that mean that he rolled dice, or that he simply picked the first person who came to mind without much rhyme or reason? He never specified which, to my knowledge.
If my last point, doesn't sway you, I don't think we're going to agree on this one. To me, and most of the rest of the town, the behavioral tells seemed to be much more compelling. To you, and apparently Axelrod, the opposite is true.
If you view the game state as a total number of scum, all of which must be eliminated before reaching the end of the game, then the view that we should lynch Treigit becomes much more intelligible.
But here's the perspective which I've been using, and perhaps you'll see some value to it.
We are in a race against time. We have an impending threshold at which the mafia will seize control of the town, and dispatch us. Beyond that impending threshold, somewhere in the future, is the possibility that the cult will achieve a majority.
In order to stave off a mafia victory, and buy ourselves enough time to seek out the remaining scum, we must first pursue the mafia single-mindedly. If the cult's threshold of victory becomes more imminent, then we turn on the cult. Essentially, our object is not to eliminate all the types of scum as quickly as possible, our object is to maximize our chance of survival by pushing back the threshold at which we will lose. When we gain more space, we have more options, and greater discretion to pursue other leads.
So, although lynching the cult leader would decrease the total amount of scum we must eventually deal with, it brings the mafia closer to their threshold of victory. And because not all scum are equally dangerous, the best play for the town is to lynch the cult leader much later in the order than they lynch mafia.
In one sense, in the broader perspective of the game, lynching the cult leader is avoiding a possible mislynch of a pure townie. But in a much more immediate sense, it is deliberately exposing us to the mafia and advancing their agenda by bringing them closer to their threshold of victory.
Once the mafia has been weakened, that is acceptable. In this situation, I don't think we can justify it. We would be drawing too close to the edge.
I wrongly assumed that it would be self-evident. I hope the last few paragraphs correct my mistake.
I may have missed reading that. I'm not sure your numbers add up, however.
Let's say we followed a lynch Treigit, kill Kops plan, and experience two kills a night, as in a regular game, and the unaccounted kill from night one was an extra kill (which would not be surprising). We lynch one player each day, and lose two by night.
Day 3, 18 alive at start, 6m
day 4, 15 alive at start, 6m
day 5, 12 alive at start, 6m, Mafia win at daybreak
So in that scenario, we would be at lynch or lose on day 4. There is some chance of luck intervening, but current thread developments (the outing of Bluesoul, possible outing of doc) are making lucky breaks other than scum crossfire (a chancy proposition to base the fate of the game on) increasingly less likely.
In other words, if we followed the lynch Treigit/vig kops plan, we would have a single mislynch standing between us and Lylo. And although the percentage of mafia remaining alive would increase, helping us somewhat, their voting influence over us would increase as well, counter-balancing those gains.
If we simply lynched Treigit or Kops as cult or town and refused to vig, we might have one additional mislynch. However, Axelrod was very noncommital about whether he was pushing for Kops' claim as a possible waypoint on the path to a vig-kill, or simply for information. And, he never explained why we would want that information if we did not want to vig or lynch Kops.
Either reason is scummy, because he was either lobbying for the exposure of a townie power role, or he was lobbying for a vig-kill which could land us at Lylo as early as two days from now. Both ways, the mafia profit.
This is unfortunately true, despite my efforts not to state it explicitly for them. However, the SK would still have good reason to do so, in order to safeguard his continuing ability to strike, and not be drafted into a cult which has little chance of victory.
I may be arguing my points too vigorously at times, but more often I think my points have been misunderstood, partially because Axelrod has been clouding the issues.
For one, I'd like to know why he continued pushing for Kops' claim. And I've been dissatisfied enough with his push against the likely cultists that I would sanction a claim, given enough pressure.
That comes close, but there are some important points that you might have missed.
A mediocre voting record is what pretty much everyone in this thread has (and who am I to accuse Axel of a bad voting record, when I've voted against a townie in every single post? ), because we haven't had a wagon that's struck home. However, what I dislike is that his rationale for voting against MD, and his flip-flop seems unjustified by my way of thinking.
Saying that my rationale is that the cult is bad target is very much an understatement: I think that targeting the cult could very well be suicide for the town, and that the mafia has every reason to encourage us to do it.
I also dislike the way he's used subjective feelings as an attempt to answer my points (thoughts are one thing, if they can be justifed, feelings and unjustified thoughts are another). In the places in which he tried to turn aside my questioning by merely saying "that's how I felt", he was evading giving an explanation for his actions.
Similarly, by merely attacking my argument, painting it as something different, sidetracking it, refusing to continue it, and libelling it as merely over-exaggerated and misguided, he was evading answering. And that is why it becomes scummy behavior, because he was substituting them for genuine, helpful responses.
Vote Azrael.
Vote kops
How is it that big of an assumption to make? The way kops worded his claim made it seem like he is not a standard doc (as axel pointed out in his post). I think Axel's question is a fair one to kops, and I would like to hear the answer as well.
To those of you voting Kops: Why? If he's truly the doctor, don't you think he'll be disposed of by the mafia/SK? If he's not, his appearance over the course of the next few days becomes very suspect, we can revisit the case then. Why on earth would we waste our lynch testing this as a false claim when he'll likely die via nightkill?
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
Waiting to hear from kops on the questions asked, especially why he he chose to claim a name complete (almost) opposite of what his claimed ability is.
The only way lynching kops makes any sense is if you legitimately believe he's mafia. He's painted two gigantic targets on his back today- one, his "accidental" link with Treigit making him a likely CL, and now he's claimed doc. If you legitimately think he's going to make it through the next few evenings, I'd love to hear why. Therefore, I don't see the logic in wasting our lynch on someone who is likely going to die, anyhow.
Your second statement is humorous. Of course I have to allow for myself to be wrong- I'm not the cop, and I'm not perfect (as hard as I try to be, dammit!). That's not the purpose of that statement, however; it's just common sense. If someone is a probable CL and a claimed doc and they're alive two or three days down the road- you don't think that might be worth checking into? I certainly do.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
"A whole slew of points that might mean something if there was some way to connect them." Body of evidence. Each point is more damning then the last. Vote: Axelrod.
Chucklez is getting more suspicous. Will we have time to revisit these claimed docs? Nevertheless, DYH is very right.
*glares at DYH's new sig*
Vote Azrael.
Usually, yes. But now that the cult has been exposed, it's very unlikely to survive long enough to have a chance. In this scenario, the SK is much better off hedging his bets on his original win condition, I think. Otherwise, he's relying on the charity of the mafia and the town or a minor miracle in order to win. And, the cult leader as Treigit described it poses the greatest danger to him out of any role remaining in the game, unless DM's done something wacky. The only thing he fears more is the town's lynch and the mafia's kill, but since he can't do anything about those, eliminating the cult's "kill"/perpetual roleblock ought to be his best play.
Vote Azrael.
So now the fact that I was critical of Tregit early is also an indicator of mafianess? Are you now conceding that Tregit looked scummy?
I am not arguing that the fact that Tregit has conceded he is anti-town is any kind of evidence in my favor. But, far from being a point in my favor, you seem to think it's a point against me, as though a mafia would be more likely than a regular townie to sense something was wrong with Tregit.
This is why there's no arguing with you. You will just view everything I say or do through your mafia-colored glasses.
Again, ridiculous. You won't give an inch. You will twist anything anyone says and/or ignore it when the facts simply don't agree. MD clearly said he random voted. I pressed him on that very question multiple times because I wanted to know the answer first. It was key.
And you just dismiss it with "well, maybe his version of Random didn't mean what you think it means." And then continue to maintain against all reasonableness that my particular vote on MD was somehow scummier than other peoples.
I have pointed out now that if there is a Cult, based on DM's last game, there appears to be good reason to believe Tregit is the Leader. If he is, and Cult recruits revert to town after his death, then you are correct that there is no impending threat. But how can we know for sure? How will we ever know if we don't lynch him? He's been inspected and come up Neutral. We aren't getting more information on that front, unless there are other abilities floating around to give us something.
If we were wrong about this particularly crucial fact, the idea that we can simply eliminate the Cult at will anytime we want is flatly wrong.
This is not to say that a Cult is a greater threat than a mafia. Please do not put those words in my mouth. But sometimes a Bird in hand is better, etc., etc.
I don't think you will find people who are arguing that it is better to lynch mafia. The criticism is the idea that you can just ignore this Cult until some unspecified point in the future. ANd then lynch/night-kill them at will. Your language, first pursue the mafia, then later we can turn on the Cult, presumes we can pick and choose. You constantly blow this off "what I mean is that we can "try" to lynch one or the other", but then you go right back to the same language you have always been using.
If it were going to be done at all, sooner is better than later. Unless you were sure of the Leader and sure the recruits would revert.
Again with the fear mongering. "Too close to the edge...." And then again, maybe we'll wake up with 2 dead mafia toworrow (go go SK and Vig!)
No, it's only if you assume the worst. And if you assume the worst, we lose no matter what.
Who is actively advocating a Lynch Tregit Vig kops plan right now? You keep saying this like it's a foregone conclusion (and like they are both confirmed townies - except for possibly being Cult - and like it was my idea).
Then you assume a mislynch and two dead townies each night with no crossfire. Gee, I think we would lose if that kept happening. 4 mislynches? Average of 3 town dead every Night. What is your point again? That with careful play we might get another Day?
This is infuriating. You really, really want me to have said that I want kops to be vigged, because it makes such a nice argument for how terrible "my" plan was/is, which was never my plan, but maybe if you keep saying it someone will mistakenly think it was, but, unfortunately for you I never said anything like that.
So you then attempt to construe a request for a claim as a request for kops to be vigged. Wonderful logic. Clearly if I asked him to claim anything then I'm suspicious, and clearly if I'm suspicious then (1) I'm wrong because kops is nothing except possibly friendly Cult and (2) that means I want him to be vigged.
Why do I ever ask someone for something? To evaluate their claim, and specifically to evaluate it against the backdrop of what they have already said in the game. As a "way-point" on the path to being vigged? Yes, that makes sense.
You are too far gone to be persuaded of anything, clearly, but this is just for people who are still paying attention.
Your wonderful logic means that anyone asking for a claim ever is scummy. Wait, you don't mean that. It's just me. Right, I get it.
Why I wanted to know specifically what his claim was after he said he was a "power" role? You don't see why a town player might possibly ask that question? More to the point, are you saying you saw nothing suspicious about him at all, aside from his possibly signaling to Tregit?
You are stretching to make an argument that is not there simply for the purpose of viewing everything I do in the most negative light.
I'll tell you this much, I always have reasons for everything I do.
Oh good, a "short" statement of the case. Let's see it again:
Wait, by "your" way of thinking? Isn't that an invalid/subjective response?
I explained this several times. Trying to slant my vote on MD as somehow worse than other players, when it was probably more justified, is just you being unable to be objective.
"Suicide" in three more days you mean. Assuming Tregit is "only" a harmless Cultist, and assuming we mislynch 2 more times on Days 3 and 4 and assuming that we lose 3 "town" (or harmless Cult) tonight (counting kops who I clearly am asking to be vigged and you know I always get what I want), and then 2 more "town" (or harmless Cult) on each succeeding Night and assuming a 6 man mafia (as opposed to 2 mafias)and assuming no Mafia/SK crossfire tonight, tomorrow or the Night after.
Your right. It's suicide. How could any reasonable person fail to see it. I must be scum.
No, I wasn't. Which actions were you talking about again? Voting for MD? Voting for Tregit? Asking kops to clarify his "power role" claim?
Your arguments are over-exaggerated, misguided, and plain wrong. So I say so. I have pointed out ad nauseaum the places where you have over-stepped yourself, exaggerated and twisted in your zeal to try and paint me as scum. You barely acknowledge my replies.
And saying that I'm "evading" answering? I would laugh if other people weren't taking you seriously.
That wasn't a very nice way to show Ozzy's case! Why would you defend Axel in such a way? Or do I even need to ask?
TYCHO IS A SMART MAN!
There's no reason to lynch kops without a counterclaim. He could be lying, sure, but we'll get him soon if that's the case. Meanwhile, let's bully Axie!
UNVOTE, VOTE AXELROD!
When's Puzzle getting back? I'd be interested to here what he's got to say on all this.
[The Family]
If Trei is any of the types of bad men you suspect him to be, that is non-mafia like, and it has been shown why he is unlikely SK, isn't it better to toss the vig at him, mostly because we need to hit some mafia bad men, and lynching him gives us very little info?
[The Family]
I am trying desperately to catch back up with the game. I will not let it die.
You think I was "leading" kops with my question? I frame my questions fairly deliberately, and in any event, I would have thought the reason was self-evident. There are going to be a limited number of protective roles in this game. I'm assuming there is a standard issue Doc (which certainly could be wrong). But kops has implied, if not flat out stated that his role is not standard issue. He ought to have an opinion about Chucklez. I want him to take a position. Getting people to take positions is one of the better ways to get reads on them.
Re Tregit: ultimately, lynching him or "tossing the vig. at him" might end up being completely equivilent. But I can certainly think of situations where it wouldn't be.
If Tregit is CL and he has recruited a townie power role and roles revert upon the Death of the CL, the townie would get to use his ability tonight. (note all the qualifiers).
Also, if it's actually a Death Cult, then waiting is definitely harmful for the town. I realize Az scorns the very notion of a Death Cult as being too unfair to the town, but what can I say? I've seen them. They do exist. I didn't make it up. I think the original Cultist role was a Death Cult. I also realize that a Death Cult has never been done on Salvation.
As CL he might have some kind of night-kill immunity (as Fayul did in Random 2).
The town vig. might get role-blocked.
Apparently I think the information to be gained is more significant than most. He might also be some other kind of harmful Neutral. At this point, it's still just his word that it is even a Cult at all.
Who are the "mafia bad men" that are better choices that we should be lynching? You just voted me. That's not better.
You were voting Chucklez before and that's a lynch that I could possibly get behind, but I'm currently waiting for more information (oh look, another reasons I'm pressing kops. How scummy!)
I actually had a question for Chucklez that I've been meaning to ask him but I keep forgetting to (I wonder why?) Chucklez: who did you target last night with your "faith healing" ability and what was the result? If you already answered this earlier, please pardon me, I've been distracted.
*awaits Az's inevitable efforts to spin this in as scummy as way as possible...*
I's been votin' for you on and off for a while, mostly because you haven't exactly been unconvincing in your defense. But Mommy has been watching you since your late start into day 1! A couple of Ozzy's attacks have been off, but ultimately, I agree with enough of it, see?
BUT MOST IMPROTANT IS THE WAY YOU'VE BEEN PURSUING A TREI LYNCH!
Not only does Trei have probably the smallest chance of being mafia other then blue and Puzz(and mommy, of course), but it has been shown before why he isn't likely a SK!
FURTHERMORE, AXIE SAID HE SUSPECT TREI BECAUSE TREI'S CULT IS THE SAME AS DM'S LAST CULT, YA?
Well, if that's so, then it is a reverting cult! It isn't a severe threat, and there is little problem with having viggy do it! See?
BUT YOU ATTACK HIM NOT BECAUSE YOU THINK HE IS CULT LEADER, YA? YOU ATTACK HIM BECAUSE HE IS ANTI-TOWN BY HIS OWN ADMISSION!
And this is supposed to make him a good lynch? Mommy must respectfully disagree. If he is some-kind-of-anti-town but not SK or Mafia for sure, then how is it not the correct play to vig him?
UNLESS YOU WANT TO DISTRACT US FROM YOUR SCUM BUDDIES!
You are missing the point! If Trei is likely non-mafia, and even non-SK, and can likely be dealt with by the vig, then damn near any one of us is a better choice! Mommy says you could even vote for me!
I WOULD <3 A CHUCK LNCH, BUT WE ALL KNOW THAT, HUH?
But what about Machin Shin? Or MossChop? Jobie even! Tycho just went through all the trouble of PBPAing Jobie, let's run him up!
MOMMY SAYS YOU COULD FIND SOMEONE IF YOU WANTED!
No, we can't fabricate a mafia to lynch instantly. That's silly! But we could actually try to pursue the mafia rather then pushing towards obviouse non-mafia, eh?
[The Family]
The problem with this is as follows:
-The town had a RB (assuming we can trust a dead townie)
-Therefore the mafia is more likely to have a RB
-Bluesoul is either cop or playing the craziest gambit EVAR
-With the Cop and a Doc out (and our other doc either a faith healer or lying scum) it's safe for scum to kill one, and RB the other, thus guaranteeing a misslynch down the line
-Therefore, Kops living till morning tells us one of three things
*He's scum false claiming
*He's town and scum are hopping on a misslynch
*He's a neutral (presumably false claiming) and scum are hoping for a misslynch
There is no non WIFOM way of distinguishing which is true
I've seen scum keep scummy looking docs alive before, so it wouldn't surprise me
Sorry for what may be viewed as advising scum, but if a midrange player such as myself could spot such a play, I think it likely that one of ~6 players of indeteriminate skill might too.
Ok folks, your beloved mod has been trying to read the last 20 pages and is ready to cry. According to my vote counts, kops was lynched on page 111, but with an inaccurate vote count due to me being gone, I am going to do the following.
Vote Count
RESET
In all of your next posts, please post a vote ______ or not voting.
I will then redo a current vote count based on what you all post.
Also, if any of you have PM'd me and not received a response yet, please resubmit your question and I will reply.
From here on out, I will endeavor to stay on pace with the game while cleaning, repairing, and selling my old house as well as unpacking in my new house and beginning class again next week. Wish me luck. Please keep in mind if you ask me a question, I may miss it. I prefer to get questions via PM unless they are questions that relate the the game in general and not one role specifically.
Thank you all for putting up with my absence.
Which parts (if you mean other than what you mention below?)
See, as far as I can tell, this is really the only thing that means anything. (Some) people disagree that Tregit is a good lynch if his chances of being mafia are small, regardless of his anti-town status. What can I say? I'm not making up my opinion.
I suspect that part of my perspective comes from the fact that I suspected him initially, and then what do you know, he's not town. So I find it hard to let him go because he might "only" be Cult. Frankly, it seems ridiculous to even say something like that.
You can disagree with the perspective and I won't even say you are wrong. I'll just disagree with you (or anyone) telling me I can't have that opinion, or that it's some kind of scum tell. Because it ain't.
This is just one of those areas where people can disagree.
My perspective no doubt is also influenced by the fact that Az (and others) seems to think that I am a better alternative, which I know beyond any doubt is wrong. So it's hard to respect that kind of opinion.
May I cry now?
I've been attacking him for being anti-town for a long time, and for his lying to the point where I don't trust him. When I looked up DM's other Cult I noted the similarities. I said (more than once) that if this Cult is the same as that - and Tregit is the CL - then it's not a threat.
I said (just now, right above you, were you even reading?) that the situations might be completely equivilent? I thought you were asking for reasons where they wouldn't be? What are you disagreeing with?
I am obviously missing your point. Despite how clearly and precisely you are making it. What makes a "vig" kill better than a lynch? At best they are equivilent. And there are situations where the vig kill wouldn't work or wouldn't be as useful.
DM: you want to know who we are currently voting, or you are just re-setting everything because you don't want to do an actual vote count?
I was voting Tregit. Am I supposed to re-vote?
Vote: Tregit
I also think I really need to take a stance right now also, so
vote Jobie
because the several cases against him looked really solid and his bandwagon just died so easily... he didn't even post between it going strong and its death.
I wish I could vote him without making it look like an attempt to divert attention, so I'll explicitly state that that's not why I'm doing it, I'm doing it more to make it known that I'm taking a stance and because I think Jobie has a much higher chance of being mafia-scum than anyone else right now. Honestly, I hardly see a case for mafia against anyone else, !C!'s being mediocre at best in my eyes. At the present, I think the case against Jobie has been pretty well stated, but if anybody would like me to make a new/revised case against him, I can do that.
Vote kops.
I need to respond to both Az's and Axel's posts, but I don't have time just now. I will remark, though, to Axel, that you're really taking Az's last post or two out of context, and that it isn't helping things. You can't accuse him of assuming a worst case scenario when that's exactly what I asked him to do, and he didn't make any accusations involving kops getting vigged. I think that must have been you reading through your "Az is wrong and always will be" glasses.:)
Mafia MVP BM Mafia
Mafia MVP Matrix Mafia
Not Voting
I'm really confused by Az vs. Axel, the Rumble in the Jungle, the War on the Forum (hey it's close to rhyming). I had been getting townie vibes from both of them, and now I feel like they've both been looking scummy since they've been at each other's throats. Also, CC had been giving me townine vibes at least since today started, but I don't like the given reason for voting Axel. Also, there's the comment that we can save kops for later and if he's still alive we can get him, in the same post as CC recommends we lynch another claimed doc.
Now, many of us feel that Chucklez is scummy, but doesn't the same reasoning apply? Treigit has a point that a claimed doc being alive says nothing about his alignment. I feel like we need to analyze behavior and what we know, not WIFOM things. Right now, according to behavior and things they have said and done, I feel like we can't trust Treigit, kops, and Chucklez, and Jobie.
I keep getting the sense that Az and Axel are both just misguided townies who are getting pissed off. Az has mentioned our "other prospects" several times, so what I think is that he and Axel should stop with their little feud and try to come up with some other targets/convincing evidence for current targets.
You did it again. More later.
Vote Azrael.
I wouldn't say that. If we lynch Jobie, the vig can have his pick of Chucklez and/or kops, as far as I'm concerned.
Where is Krashbot? It seems like weeks since he posted.
Lawl.
My dear Treigit, in your scenarios above, if he's the doctor, wouldn't "mislynching" him today cause the same effect as mislynching him days from now? Dead townie doc. In the interim, we might lynch or vig the proposed mafia RB (you're even speculating here without factual basis to promote the case), forcing their hand. The SK might decide not to play guessing games with the mafia on whether or not they have said roleblocker and take him out on the premise he could be the doc. Heck, the SK may take him out on the premise he thinks he's the Cult Leader. There are solutions to determining his true role that don't involve direct risk to the town wasting their lynch.
So I ask you: what is the point in lynching the potential doctor? This play is wrong on so many levels.
If you can present a logical reason why he is more likely mafia than doc or Cult Leader- have at it. Until someone convinces me of that, I'll contest that voting Kops is a terrible play.
@DM: I am currently Voting Jobie.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
TOTALLY forgot kops just claimed doc (that is a doc claim, right?)
In that case, vig just hit Chucklez.
Random Mafia 2 Town MVP
'08 MTGS Fantasy Football Overall Champion
Best Non-SK Neutral Performance (Individual)
Damn you found out my ability.
Random Mafia 2 Town MVP
'08 MTGS Fantasy Football Overall Champion
Best Non-SK Neutral Performance (Individual)
I noted these posts on my brief trip back through memory lane though, (just for fun.)
Good plan.
I agree.
Makes sense to me.
You got it.
Sorry, couldn't help myself.
Well, if I have misunderstood something, sorry, but it seems to me he is still loudly maintaining it's "suicide" to lynch someone who might be Cult today as opposed to mafia. But then even under his own "worst case" scenario it really isn't suicide, and his "worst case" scenario doesn't appear very likely to begin with. What am I taking out of context?
Almost every post of his (which are all attacking me) mentions the horrible consequences of Lynch/Vig. Tregit/kops plan. He has called it my plan. He keeps bring it up like I am arguing with him about it. I point out it was not my plan. Then he says I was "non-committal." Then he says that my asking kops for his claim is practically tantamount to asking for him to be vigged. I don't think I'm mistaking his meaning at all.
Vote: Axelrod
Currently voting Kops
Willing to lynch: !C!
Can easily see myself being persuaded to lynch: Axel, Jobie
(It looks bad that my prefered lynches are both claimed docs, though that is the best false claim for scum)
Responding to DYH, sorry if anyone else has asked me recently
It's definetly possible that he is the doc. You proposed not lynching him and using his surival as a criterion for guilt/innocence. I admit I failed to factor the SK into these scenarios, though I belive the game I 'm referencing (Kirby on Scum) included an active SK when the Doc was allowed to live. Axel, do you know off hand?
DYH, I've already provided the case on why I think he's likely scum. Would you care to refute the case, or provide a case on why he's most likely doc?
What do you think of arimnaes and DYH, btw?
Oh, and one more thing- I 100% do not advocate the automatic vigging of Treigit as some of my fellow kops-bandwagon members have been doing. The only scenario where it would seem to make sense to vig Treigit immediately is if kops comes up as a cult member but NOT the leader, as that would imply Treigit as cult leader.
Mmm hmm. One WoLG is quite enough for this forum, thank you very much. *winces*
I am going to keep my response to Axel brief and focused, in deference to those who are having trouble keeping up.
I would appreciate if you would cite exactly where I stated it was your plan.
I'm afraid that you are mistaking my meaning, either deliberately or accidentally. I can't recall where I might have attributed the plan as yours. I certainly haven't recently. What I have been doing is opposing your defense of the plan, your framing of it as an acceptable risk. Whether you came up with it originally is not rrelevant, you've been arguing quite strenuously that it is a viable course of action.
Secondly, I don't equate your asking Kops for a claim as tantamount to a vig request. You have misrepresented me here.
This is one of the points where you have repeatedly been evasive: without a strong case that Kops is mafia, why would we want him to claim? I have asked this question several times. You have yet to answer. Therefore, I was left to wonder if you might be requesting a claim in order to pave the way for a vigging, or in order to expose a townie power role. Because even if we believe that he is cult, we would not want him to claim. And if we believe he is mafia, then that case needs to be made, separately. So far it has not.
Neither of us has to be scum. Axelrod may not be scum. This would not be the first time I've been wrong.
But I very much disagree with your belief that anger has "blinded" me. With all due respect, I am constantly aware of the dangers posed by letting emotions get the better of my logic. And I am quite conscious of how angry I may or may not be, at any given moment. The accusation that I've been "blinded by anger" is actually a good deal more likely to anger me then any of the strategies Axelrod has been employing.
If he's scum, he's simply using effective tactics. And he would be perfectly within his bounds. If they are frustratingly effective, then so much the better for him. I would respect and admire his craftsmanship either way.
If he's town, then he's employing a perspective that I think quite inarguably benefits the mafia (you can argue that it also greatly benefits the town, but getting the town to eliminate cult members instead of them is undoubtedly in the mafia's best interests), but there would be no use becoming angry with him when he's simply trying to guide the town as best he can.
Now, in some people's minds, I may be exaggerating the dangers of killing possible cultists. I may be using loaded words, such as "suicide", to describe it. But it is plain and simple fact that such a course of action benefits the mafia. And as I am a competitive-minded person, I am viscerally opposed to any action that benefits the mafia and brings us closer to defeat.
My point is, even if you think I am exaggerating the danger, the danger does exist. And because the danger does exist, that piece of my case against Axelrod remains valid. This is why players like Cropcircles have been joining the wagon against Axelrod, despite their belief that I may be getting a little carried away. Getting carried away does not necessarily mean that I'm wrong, or that I'm failing to take other perspectives into account.
If there were any other points at which you believe I was exaggerating I would greatly appreciate it if you would point them out.
Or if there are points in my case that you believe are incorrect, or unconvincing, would you mind detailing them?
A growing number of the town seem to believe that it is not a distraction. May I ask why you believe that it is? There has been a steadily growing case made for Axelrod being scum, and if you don't agree with it, then why not defend him?
Chucklez didn't claim full doc. I haven't written him off my last of suspects, but I'm not sure whether we want to sic the vig on him or not. I could go either way. Mostly I'm just trying to figure out whether it's the type of role that DM might have included, and wondering what other protection roles the town has that might let us figure out whether chucklez fits into the balance somehow (the number of NKs we'll end up facing also factors in).
Chucklez's claim was that he had a higher percentage of successful protections based on the number of greek gods that are alive. Kops has claimed a standard doctor role.
Again, with respect, I am simply trying to play the game to the best of my ability. This has nothing to do with ego, or anger with Axelrod, for whom I have a great deal of respect as a player.
If you think I am making a play mistake, could you possibly explain why and where?
Possibly they don't want to be vigged or SKed by anyone? Possibly they don't want attention drawn to themselves, for whatever reason?
Vote Azrael.
Lurking?
Although I think he said he has an actual reason, which I can respect. He's moving house, or something.
I think there's a strong case. He lied to us and I can't get a satisfactory answer out of him as to why he'd signal Treigit like that. Feel free to explain on his behalf why the heck he'd behave like that if he's the townie doctor.
This is my current working assumption. It may be wrong.
It's clearly bad to kill cultists besides the leader. I don't agree that it's bad to remove the cult leader, especially when said person may in fact be mafia. If he's cult leader, the mafia would be sure of it by now, and they can kill him last of all. They have no reason to kill him any earlier.
No information and I don't even agree with everything he's said. Why should I stick up for him? I learn from at least SOME of my past mistakes.
I believe it's a distraction, though, because I don't see either of you as serious lynch targets for today. People, as ever, are fully capable of disagreeing. Him pushing at you today in particular is a distraction, and the remark was addressed to him.
And this is where I remain unsure about you. This is exactly not the time to be trying to put it in someone's head to vig someone you can't even muster enough certainty to have lynched. If you want him lynched, try to run him up and make your arguments. Otherwise, no. We've had one misvig already from that sort of thing.
Wonder away. Privately.
Well, there's an interesting point here- if the other one also thinks they'll revert to town, why not out themselves? But of course, there may not be another one- most cults have people they cannot recruit, especially mafia members (random 1 being an exception due to the existance of the Gottlieb role, and that game is a testament as to exactly why the mafia are usually not recruitable), and the leader might have hit one of those.
This?
No he doesn't, really; it's all baseless set-up speculation. I'm more willing to buy kops' horrid explanation that he was simply breadcrumbing back at Treigit to show he thought he knew what he was talking about than I am that he did it on this type of gambit. He was very anxious day one to leave some sort of hint behind to his role as a result of what happened to him in Sympathy for the Devil mafia. As a newer player, it's certainly feasible that he wanted to express that he'd picked up on this. You'll also remember he pointed out the ISISGODOFMAGIC crumb.
Furthermore, I'm more likely inclined to believe it's a cult signal than a scum signal if it's one at all, and Treigit is making up more stuff. Is there a reason you left out the fact the CL could communicate with you earlier, Treigit? He chose not to? Really? Finding that very hard to believe.
Treigit, you lost me with the fence-sitting piece. I do so enjoy the false dilemma you set up here- "He could be CL, but non-cult scum seems more likely". Umm, what about the third option, you know, his actual doctor claim? (I've ignored the text in parentheses because that's really what you're trying to accomplish by putting said statement in parentheses.)
It's interesting that you're trying so hard to paint him as scum and backing off the CL idea now, though. Noted.
We've already seen multiple gods from the same Pantheon (glasswright), I'm not sure what's wrong with his D&D claim. This follow-up question actually helps damn your case from the perspective if you actually think anyone would bail him out on that.
For what it's worth, I was going to false-claim with my doctor role in Star Trek mafia, and I really wish I had. It was going to be Tasha Yar, martial arts specialist with a retalitory kill. *sigh* hindsight.
I'd find it very hard to believe that if kops was scum, he was using a false claim provided by DM, given the obvious flaw in it.
And I don't think you're in any position to be making demands of people, Treigit. Right now, you're only alive because we can't afford to waste a lynch on a neutral. Everyone should keep your alignment in mind, as just because you're not technically scum, doesn't mean you're thinking like a "townie". I really need to learn to become more assertive - you should've been swinging day one instead of MD_.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
*shrugs* No rational reason that I can think of. But if he's scum, I'd lean towards cult, not mafia. That's the case I haven't seen yet, and it's equally hard for me to imagine a good (sorry) explanation why he would signal as mafia.
Yeah, I can see where you're coming here. It's quite possible to argue that removing the cult leader does the town some good.
But what I'm asking in response, is does that good outweigh the favor we'll be doing to the mafia, by bringing them closer to achieving their win condition?
Eh. Fair.
I wouldn't have mentioned vigging at all, except that in Arimnaes' post he called for the vig to target Chucklez (without asking input from the rest of hte town). My post was meant to discourage that.
I intend to. Privately.
Possibly. Did HS come after or before Random 1, though? If it came afterwards, and DM was watching, he might have altered his cult designs. Otherwise, it seems more unlikely that he would have changed his philosophy.
So unless the mafia are unrecruitable, it would seem mildly coincidental to have happened already, unless there's a large number of other unrecruitables. And if there are, then I don't envy the cult's chances.
Vote Azrael.
Have you got this reversed, Raf? Do you mean to say that Az is locked into me? Because throughout this entire affair I have been pointedly not making the argument that Azrael must be some kind of scum for this attack on me. I don't have a strong feeling about that. I think he might just be misguided. I don't immediately recall a time when we butted heads and we were both on the same side - possibly Kamigawa mafia where again, he expressed an opinion I might be scum. But that time I really went off on him (wrongly) and I became quite convinced he was scum as a result.
Which makes this an unusual position for me.
Are you asking my opinion of DHY or Az's? Right now my opinion is that most everyone else is getting a free pass while this debate rages on.
This would be the first post (I think) where you refer to this "plan" in response to one of my posts. Here you do not directly attribute it to me, but by saying your statement applies to "the argument" for lynching/vigging in a response to my post, it certainly makes it sound as though I was the one making that argument.
Here is where you specifically call it my plan. I assume your point is that you didn't actually say it was my plan to kill kops, you just said "possibly" kill kops? I see. You think I'm being unfair?
Nor will you find me "defending" the "plan" as an acceptable risk? I just didn't say that. So what am I supposed to do when you say stuff like this?
It was not long ago, by the way.
Really?
What was that?
And you further pushed that idea later. Saying either I wanted him to claim to expose a town power role (bad) or claim as a mid-point on the way to also vigging him (also bad). You sarcastically asked me which was it, I think, which is when I asked you when you stopped beating your wife.
I am simply not being misrepresentative, Az.
You were certainly defending it at that point. Surely you can agree that it's not a far leap from "defending" to "making the argument"?
As I recall, I asked for a post in which I said you actually came up with the plan.
[/nitpick]
You can still have and endorse a plan, and not be the person who came up with it. You simply have to be the most noticeable person touting it. I can completely understand how it would be easy to mistake the intent there, though. It's used both ways.
*shrug* Almost a week, and over a hundred posts. Decide for yourself if that's long, or not, in the context of this argument.
Yes, I wondered about that, because either of those would be compelling goals for the mafia. And, you still have not answered what your motive would be as a townie, and I can't easily imagine one. Which leaves fishing for a possible kill, or fishing for a power role as the easiest explanations I can think of.
If you can supply another, that would be much appreciated.
Vote Azrael.
So are you saying we shouldn't lynch the CL until all the mafia are dead? By then (when and if the mafia are all dead) I'm pretty sure the cult would've out numbered the town.