But to explain a little more, Fayul's apparently leaving it be, and so should we all. I don't like playing the second-guessing game of whether the mod is being lenient or whether the quote isn't a real quote. I would much prefer to stick my head in the sand on this one and pretend it isn't there; there's arguments that it could be faked to look authentic, there's arguments that the error makes it look more real, it's all very WIFOM and a good breeding ground for someone to try and twist something up either to undeservedly clear keeper or to undeservedly bandwagon him. In summary, don't poke at it- it won't help.
And don't fish for modkills.
Az: Dead man walking, eh? Let me try something (and no-one copy please, I'm not trying to get a lynch here, just see if the numbers are a little better than we thought).
vote carrion pigeons Are you there, cp?
Of course, claiming to be blocked by a dead man conveniently excuses you of being the killing mafia last night, and we aren't really in a position to confirm it unless cp or someone else owns up to knowing about this. Confirmation via dead man appears to be an epidemic. I will be pretty shocked if we don't have at least one mafia between Az, AH and keeper.
I agree, if the MO doesn't show up again in following nights, then I should very rightfully come under some suspicion for that.
In other words, information drought, and that is when analysts become the weakest...
I was role-blocked last night. And by the MO, CP was responsible (yes, the dead guy).
Yeah... Az has finally lost it. Surely there must be some other explaination?
A great plan, but what if there's more than one mafia remaining? Then what? I have a feeling we've been dealing with the failsafe mafias (DZ and wu) before the wei, and as a result there are two or three wei remaining. It's a bad place.
A dead roleblocker. Seriously. I don't know what to say.
If it's a complete lie, it's pretty insanely dumb. Not that Az doesn't gambit, because he does, but... way to attract attention with something unverifiable that doesn't even clear him. I'm inclined to believe something did happen to him. Whether it's really cp? That I have no idea.
Azrael, I seem to recall that when CP claimed targets, he said he blocked you at some point. Night 2, I believe? Anyway, with that in mind, are you sure the MO is the same?
Azrael, I seem to recall that when CP claimed targets, he said he blocked you at some point. Night 2, I believe? Anyway, with that in mind, are you sure the MO is the same?
Exactly the same. In fact, Fayul even mentioned something like "but how can that be?" in the PM.
So. Claims.
1. Azrael - blocked by CP (started this mess)
4. Fadeblue - no outright claim. Has posted since the question.
5. RafaelK - not blocked
7. Arimnaes - no outright claim. Has posted since the question.
11. loran16 - no claim
13. KeeperEUSC - not blocked
17. Abandon Hope - not blocked
19. Kenji - not blocked
It would be good to fill this list in. So let's hear from Fade, Ariminaes, and definatly Loran. Or anyone else if there needs to be a revision.
I thought my asking the question like that would've indicated that I have not been blocked. But sure, I can explicitly say it.
Some thinking: Even if there are 2 scum left, we have some margin for error. With 8 alive, we'll be at 6 tomorrow (5 if Kenji decides to take a chance). At that point we're in LyLo, but hopefully it'll be clear then who the scum are. Otherwise, if there's only 1 scum, we have even more room for error.
I think there is some flavor and action analysis that needs to be done. I'm tired from AX, so I can't do it tonight, but I will try to work on it tomorrow.
Some thinking: Even if there are 2 scum left, we have some margin for error. With 8 alive, we'll be at 6 tomorrow (5 if Kenji decides to take a chance). At that point we're in LyLo, but hopefully it'll be clear then who the scum are. Otherwise, if there's only 1 scum, we have even more room for error.
Meh, for this reason fade cited, that it's not Lynch or Lose, I'm hesitant to claim. Still, I'll do so if called upon.
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I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
Great! Thanks Loran, and everyone else.
1. Azrael - blocked by CP (started this mess)
4. Fadeblue - not blocked
5. RafaelK - not blocked
7. Arimnaes - not blocked
11. loran16 - not blocked
13. KeeperEUSC - not blocked
17. Abandon Hope - not blocked
19. Kenji - not blocked
This is very interesting to me. Here's why. My original ability was a one time copy ability. As soon as I replaced, I used on CP. Which is why we have the same MO. I learned from him. In the following nights I roleblocked Keeper, Loran, and Az. In that order.
So, what can we deduce from this? If there is only one Wei left (i dont think so) our scum is limited to RafaelK, Fade, and Arimnaes (Kenji being cleared as vig, and me because I know). But we had two people lie about being roleblocked. Or maybe they were just confused. Let's hear from Keeper and Loran.
So do not panic Az, you weren't blocked by a dead man.
That certainly makes things interesting. I'd like to hear what Keeper and loran have to say about that, though I'll also come back later on with comments regarding Az and AH - things are definitely not adding up right now. Right now, I'm about to go celebrate the 4th, and I'd like to see what the targets have to say before I elaborate.
Most intriguing. Although I have to say that I think there are mose likely two scum left than one, mostly because we're guaranteed to have Cao Cao and then there's probably someone titled "Wei Successor."
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
Great! Thanks Loran, and everyone else.
1. Azrael - blocked by CP (started this mess)
4. Fadeblue - not blocked
5. RafaelK - not blocked
7. Arimnaes - not blocked
11. loran16 - not blocked
13. KeeperEUSC - not blocked
17. Abandon Hope - not blocked
19. Kenji - not blocked
This is very interesting to me. Here's why. My original ability was a one time copy ability. As soon as I replaced, I used on CP. Which is why we have the same MO. I learned from him. In the following nights I roleblocked Keeper, Loran, and Az. In that order.
So, what can we deduce from this? If there is only one Wei left (i dont think so) our scum is limited to RafaelK, Fade, and Arimnaes (Kenji being cleared as vig, and me because I know). But we had two people lie about being roleblocked. Or maybe they were just confused. Let's hear from Keeper and Loran.
So do not panic Az, you weren't blocked by a dead man.
Hmmm, ok, that would make sense. Are we really that lucky, to catch those two red-handed? That would certainly be bad times for the scums, if they thought they could get away with lying since CP was dead. Or is this some kind of a gambit? But why gambit when there's this many people left: even with an extra kill thrown in, if there's merely two scum left they couldn't hope to end the game by morning. No, that part doesn't make much sense at all. Ok, yeah, I think I'm tentatively trusting the unforced claim from AH. Let's hear from Keeper.
I would like to hear from Keeper too, although I'm expecting the same thing as we got from loran, since keeper's already claimed mason and so I doubt he's got another ability.
The tricks in the tale here are:
1) I didn't trust AH before this. He may not have blocked either loran or keeper, if it amounts to anything, and his masonry was with a guy who claimed to be able to convert a mafia member (which suggests that there may have been something tricksy in his role which he wasn't aware of, because converting a mafia would normally be broken), and he tried to rush lynch Kenji.
2) AH might be trying to pull a distraction from either himself or Azrael (probably the two leading targets before this) over to keeper and loran. I also note that AH has tried for a secondary throw of suspicion on to me, fade and arimnaes. This sort of generalized throwing around of suspicion and hoping some of it sticks is very scummy.
3) If AH can copy anyone's ability, why (as town) copy a roleblocker instead of hanging out to save a cop or doc ability when one such was exposed. I don't know we were really crying out for a bonus roleblocker. On the other hand, the only ability better for the scum to copy would be vig, and it could well be that for balance reasons he can't copy the vig (or simply got impatient and thought a few nights of bonus roleblocking beat potentially finding a vig down the line).
I quite like the possibility of an AH/Azrael mafia pairing in this situation, especially now that Az has swooped in and "tentatively trusted" AH.
AH has tried to say keeper/loran are liars and also tried some bad logic (ie. that only one scum's left, as arimnaes pointed out there's probably two) to attack me, fade and arim.
That leaves, as far as I can see, just AH and Azrael and Kenji that AH hasn't tried to tar there (and Kenji's too cleared to tar). I do enjoy it when scum paint road-signs for me.
I would like to hear from Keeper too, although I'm expecting the same thing as we got from loran, since keeper's already claimed mason and so I doubt he's got another ability.
The tricks in the tale here are:
1) I didn't trust AH before this. He may not have blocked either loran or keeper, if it amounts to anything, and his masonry was with a guy who claimed to be able to convert a mafia member (which suggests that there may have been something tricksy in his role which he wasn't aware of, because converting a mafia would normally be broken), and he tried to rush lynch Kenji.
Right, my mason buddy. Not I.
Quote from RafaelK »
2) AH might be trying to pull a distraction from either himself or Azrael (probably the two leading targets before this) over to keeper and loran. I also note that AH has tried for a secondary throw of suspicion on to me, fade and arimnaes. This sort of generalized throwing around of suspicion and hoping some of it sticks is very scummy.
I wrote more with the intent to remove the question of a single scum remaining. It isn't true. We have multiple scum.
Quote from RafaelK »
3) If AH can copy anyone's ability, why (as town) copy a roleblocker instead of hanging out to save a cop or doc ability when one such was exposed. I don't know we were really crying out for a bonus roleblocker. On the other hand, the only ability better for the scum to copy would be vig, and it could well be that for balance reasons he can't copy the vig (or simply got impatient and thought a few nights of bonus roleblocking beat potentially finding a vig down the line).
At the time, we wern't sure CP was telling the truth. I thought I'd try to copy him, and when something odd happened, I'd out him as scum. If he was telling the truth, at least I'd get a repeatable ablility out of it. I'm proud of myself. My plan worked.
Quote from RafaelK »
I quite like the possibility of an AH/Azrael mafia pairing in this situation, especially now that Az has swooped in and "tentatively trusted" AH.
AH has tried to say keeper/loran are liars and also tried some bad logic (ie. that only one scum's left, as arimnaes pointed out there's probably two) to attack me, fade and arim.
I have never believed there was only one scum left. Never. I'm not sure what gave you that idea. Maybe I said something stupid. I don't remember it, but I'll clear that up now. I believe we have more than one scum remaining. In fact, if you'll refer to my post where I supposedly accuse you, arimnaes, and fade of being the three remaining scum, you'll notice that there in parentheses I say that I don't believe that's the case. There's no need for you to be terribly defensive about this. You weren't accused.
Quote from RafaelK »
That leaves, as far as I can see, just AH and Azrael and Kenji that AH hasn't tried to tar there (and Kenji's too cleared to tar). I do enjoy it when scum paint road-signs for me.
vote Abandon Hope
I was afraid you'd come after me when I claimed. You sounded so hostile in the "don't fish for modkills" post. I hope I have explained everything to your satisfaction.
@Loran: I don't see how that clears you. You knew the MO. Are you telling me you wern't notified of the roleblock? Or that you didn't know what it did? I'm still suspicious, but a little less so.
Oh, there's another trick in the tale, RafK: Az has also claimed to have no ability (at least not an active one). If Az is telling the truth, that means that people without active abilities are still informed that they're roleblocked - yet loran and Keeper both have said they weren't aware of any roleblocking.
So where does this leave us? We have the following possibilities:
1) loran and Keeper are lying about not being roleblocked, or are mistaken.
2) Fayul has been inconsistent and notified some people of blocks and not others.
3) AH is lying about blocking loran and Keeper.
4) Az is lying about being blocked (either once or twice).
5) Az is lying about not having an active ability.
I think that covers the possibilities, though if there are others, please bring them up.
Like RafK pointed out, I don't like how AH limits the scum to me, Raf, and arimnaes, yet still turns to Keeper and loran first. Supposedly, the argument depends on there being 1 or 2 scum, but I don't see how.
I also am wary about AH copying a claimed roleblocker (and the whole timing of it), but I won't omit the possibility of questionable play. Few people can make perfect decisions, particularly when viewed in hindsight.
Strangely, Az's last post doesn't even sound like Azrael to me (particularly the first three sentences). Though it may be internal bias trying to support the Az = Cao Cao theory.
@ loran: I don't see how claiming no active abilities was supposed to "clear" you at all. Explain?
Like RafK pointed out, I don't like how AH limits the scum to me, Raf, and arimnaes, yet still turns to Keeper and loran first. Supposedly, the argument depends on there being 1 or 2 scum, but I don't see how.
I don't! I don't limit the scum to you, Raf and arimnaes! Let me quote myself for emphasis.
Quote from abandon hope »
If there is only one Wei left (i dont think so) our scum is limited to RafaelK, Fade, and Arimnaes (Kenji being cleared as vig, and me because I know).
Please notice the first parentheses. It says I don't believe this scenario to be true.
That said, if there was one scum remaining it would be true. The roleblock would prevent the nightkill for the only mafia. Eliminating anyone I blocked as mafia. Kenji is vig, and I know myself. Therefore the remaining three would be Fade, Raf, Arimnaes. One more time: I don't believe this is the case. I think we have more than one scum remaining.
That's a very good point re: Az noticing the roleblock but loran not noticing. I would narrow it down to your options 1, 3 or 5: keeper/loran are lying or mistaken, AH is lying about roleblocking them in the first place, Az is lying about not having an active ability. In the first case, loran and/or keeper are probably our mafia. In the third, AH (obv) and possibly Azrael. In the 5th, Azrael (obv) and probably AH.
Honestly, that little point strengthens my feeling that this is an AH/Az scum setup (alternately, AH may be right and it may be loran and keeper lying, we don't yet know, keeper hasn't even responded to all this yet).
As a counter to my own theory, it would seem odd thematically that people wouldn't be told about CP affecting them, a bit of a breach of flavour if you would. With that protective aura thingy, did people with no active ability get told if they had that? I want to say yes, but I'm a bit hazy as to who actually said they got that.
I read SW mafia a couple of months back after it was mentioned early in either this game or Star Trek. A rather large part of the game turned on a player not being told that their "hiding" ability had failed, even though thematically a player should know that they've failed to hide. As it happens, Azrael was a scum in that game (the scum got lynched practically all in a row in that game), and you'd think that would mean he wouldn't be caught out here assuming something worked thematically without knowing for sure- but you never know. Az has been kind of screwy lately.
AH copying a roleblocker and then going on a rb spree (care to say why you blocked who you blocked, AH?) sits badly with me, as I said earlier. It's not really a good excuse that he did it to "clear" cp, since for all he knew he could have been copying a scum roleblocker (of course, if AH is scum, of course he knew he was copying a town roleblocker!). That said, look at the mind-boggingly inexplicable decisions made by draygn_mage in Sin City which me as scum made such a big song and dance about. It DOES happen. I don't like making decisions on the basis that the other guy is an idiot, though. Well, only where the other guy IS an idiot. I'm not really convinced of that with AH
So, what can we deduce from this? If there is only one Wei left (i dont think so) our scum is limited to RafaelK, Fade, and Arimnaes (Kenji being cleared as vig, and me because I know). But we had two people lie about being roleblocked. Or maybe they were just confused. Let's hear from Keeper and Loran.
So do not panic Az, you weren't blocked by a dead man.
The trick of saying something but adding in a little aside to say you didn't really mean it is an old one. Standard mafia practice to allow yourself a disclaimer. The key question is- why say it if you didn't mean it? The real deduction to be gained from your information is the deduction fadeblue made.
You also didn't, in fact, say you think there's two scum. You just said we had two people lie about being roleblocked, which is still not necessarily accurate- the most you could have said even without loran's explanation is that two people claimed not to know they were roleblocked. Calling them liars was jumping the gun- they might be, but you don't know that yet.
AH copying a roleblocker and then going on a rb spree (care to say why you blocked who you blocked, AH?) sits badly with me, as I said earlier. It's not really a good excuse that he did it to "clear" cp, since for all he knew he could have been copying a scum roleblocker (of course, if AH is scum, of course he knew he was copying a town roleblocker!). That said, look at the mind-boggingly inexplicable decisions made by draygn_mage in Sin City which me as scum made such a big song and dance about. It DOES happen. I don't like making decisions on the basis that the other guy is an idiot, though. Well, only where the other guy IS an idiot. I'm not really convinced of that with AH
Thank you for that vote of confidance.:cool: I roleblocked people I thought we're scum at the time. But I moved on to another person a)so I didn't accidently lock down someone important b)so I could gather potentially more information. I was especially hoping for a nightkill to go missing. I didn't steal CP's ability to exonorate him. I thought he was scum, and I thought I could prove it. I was wrong; becoming a roleblocker was consolation.
Quote from RafaelK »
The trick of saying something but adding in a little aside to say you didn't really mean it is an old one. Standard mafia practice to allow yourself a disclaimer. The key question is- why say it if you didn't mean it? The real deduction to be gained from your information is the deduction fadeblue made.
Bolding mine. I said what I said with the intent that my paragraph would make it clear that a single scum was out of the question. I meant it. Let me paraphrase my intent. If we have only one scum, my info means this. But we have evidence against that theory. Let's go somewhere else.
My worse case scenario was that the town would take my roleblocks as clearance and lynch three people who I thought were unlikely. Loran and Keeper's inconsistancies were just what I was hoping for, enough evidence to hopefully keep away from this potentially disasterous line of reasoning.
Quote from RafaelK »
You also didn't, in fact, say you think there's two scum. You just said we had two people lie about being roleblocked, which is still not necessarily accurate- the most you could have said even without loran's explanation is that two people claimed not to know they were roleblocked. Calling them liars was jumping the gun- they might be, but you don't know that yet.
You're right, saying they were lying might have been jumping the gun. So I added the bit about confusion directly after that, and asked them to explain. Note the lack of a vote here. I wasn't saying there was a definite conclusion to my information. I was saying we have things to discuss.
AH, who was your mason partner again? What night was he killed? And what day was it that he confirmed you in thread?
Heh, I had to check. For all of those answers. My mason was Xyre. Confirmed to me night four. Killed last night, right? So night six. Why do you ask?
EBWODP (sorry fade): Ok so I misread that. The part about confirmed in thread. I don't remember, and I'm going to bed. Suffice to say I went on vacation, and when I returned (like 2 days later) he'd claimed both our role names.
AH was never confirmed by Xyre. Xyre reluctantly admitted that his role PM never explicitly said AH was town, even though AH claims this his role PM does explicitly say that Xyre is town. Xyre assumed that AH was town based on AH's role, but that's not strong enough evidence.
Quote from Abandon Hope »
Let me paraphrase my intent. If we have only one scum, my info means this. But we have evidence against that theory. Let's go somewhere else.
This is still faulty logic. Yes, if we only had 1 mafia, then a successful roleblock would mean no nightkill. But having 2 mafia doesn't make it more likely that loran or Keeper is scum than Raf, arim, or me. So why try to group the town?
Loran and Keeper's inconsistancies were just what I was hoping for, enough evidence to hopefully keep away from this potentially disasterous line of reasoning.You're right, saying they were lying might have been jumping the gun. So I added the bit about confusion directly after that, and asked them to explain.
You accused loran and Keeper of lying because they didn't know they had been roleblocked. And if you look at their posts, you'll see that they didn't realize that people with no abilities are supposedly still notified of being blocked (or you could argue they are feigning ignorance). Did you already realize it at that point (when you accused them of being liars)?
I'm Liu Bei. My only ability is the unlynchableness that is currently still intact (I asked Fayul this via PM and she said it was still there).
So Fade, does that clear me?
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Yes, it does clear you, but that was a little premature. It also didn't answer the question, but that's moot now.
Considering that clearing me poses a whole lot of questions for Az and AH (WHY DID AZKNOW that he was roleblocked if he is vanilla?????), I figure it was rather worth it.
In fact: Vote Abandon Hope.
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Considering that clearing me poses a whole lot of questions for Az and AH (WHY DID AZKNOW that he was roleblocked if he is vanilla?????), I figure it was rather worth it.
In fact: Vote Abandon Hope.
Hang on. Why is it my fault if Az isn't vanilla?
And is it just me, or should we be a little concerned about someone who claimed unlynchableness when thats also the ability of Cao Cao our archnemisis? Especially when Loran asked Fayul if it was still in effect. Why wouldn't it be? Was it ever not in effect?
I think we may have found Cao Cao.
@Loran: You just posted again without answering the question.
Fayul, in her post at the start of Day 3 (post #901), informed us that Liu Bei, Cao Cao, and Sun Jian cannot be banished during the day. What does this imply? That Liu Bei, Cao Cao, and Sun Jian are in the game. Unless loran is counterclaimed, his Liu Bei claim confirms him.
Fayul, in her post at the start of Day 3 (post #901), informed us that Liu Bei, Cao Cao, and Sun Jian cannot be banished during the day. What does this imply? That Liu Bei, Cao Cao, and Sun Jian are in the game. Unless loran is counterclaimed, his Liu Bei claim confirms him.
Yep, I'm spewing nonsense. I thought Cao Cao was the only ruler left. My bad.
Nice try, AH, and I would expect nothing less, but actually I trust loran's claim completely unless someone counterclaims him. Liu Bei IS in the game, and he's the Shu leader, so loran's got the only truly safe claim in the game right there. You're clutching at straws there (unless keeper or arimnaes shows up and conterclaims loran, in which case I'll have egg on my face, but I don't see that happening).
As to why you before Az?
1) If he's Cao Cao, he's unlynchable, duh.
2) You're the RB, we may need Kenji active and free to use his ability to vig Cao Cao.
3) You're the RB, and we don't want to risk the doc being blocked down because Liu Bei needs protection- I'm going to make an exception against the usual rule of not leading the doc, because in this situation it looks like one of the only ways out for the scumzorz is if some event is triggered by the death of Liu Bei.
The reason I asked about when Xyre came out and confirmed you was to see if you might have wanted to off him soon afterwards, once he had served his purpose, the way that Rafaelk did to Armlx in Sin City. The situations do seem eerily similar in a couple respects, in both games there were multiple "mason" groups, one of which contained a traitor mason who partially confirmed his buddy before being dispensed with. That is still a distinct possbility.
However, I'm still inclined to believe the unforced claim. The only way I'd see it making much sense as a gambit was if it was designed to clear Loran or Keeper at your expense, or if you wanted to be lynched, neither of which is likely.
Should we test Loran's unlynchability at some point, btw?
There's quite a simple solution: loran can just ask Fayul.
1) Confirm that you are still unlynchable.
2) Confirm whether or not the day will end.
If the day doesn't end, then test away. But if it does, it would be a total waste of time, as loran is cleared regardless unless someone counterclaims Liu Bei.
Quote from Abandon Hope »
Hang on. Why is it my fault if Az isn't vanilla?
It's not, because that would mean that Az was lying and you were likely telling the truth. But if he is vanilla, then there is a significant discrepancy at work in terms of how roleblocks are handled in this game. Which means that out of you, Azrael, and Keeper (I'm clearing loran, at this point), it's likely if not downright guaranteed that at least one of you is lying about your abilities on some level.
Since loran is cleared, we know he's likely telling the truth that he received no message about being blocked. Which means Keeper is not that likely to be lying, either. Which would in turn mean that either Azrael is lying about being blocked (or at least about being notified of the block), or he is lying about his abilities, or you are lying about blocking Keeper and loran.
It's unlikely that Azrael just made up the block, because it would look strange indeed if such a block never showed up again. So, here are the only two possibilities that I can see:
1. Azrael lied about having no active abilities.
2. AH lied about blocking Keeper and Loran.
3. There's something screwy I haven't considered which caused Keeper and Loran not to see that they were blocked, bu Azrael did.
My "lynch" will end the day. Also, lynching me will still result in a no lynch. This is why i suspect there of being Two mafia left, as Cao Cao's lynch immunity would make him rather unstoppable to us right now, no?
That said, Im fairly certain AH and Az are grasping at straws. They smell like the last two scum to me. However, now that I think about it, I think Az is more likely to be the last non-Cao Cao scum, as Ah is so desperate to protect him.
So Vote Azrael
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I'm sorry I have not responded until this time. Between the 4th, and my cross-country drive back to Vermont, I hadn't had time to check the forums.
I have never become aware of a nightblock on me. That being said, I havn't been active during the night at all this game, with the exception of maybe Night 1 and Night 2, which consisted of messages back and forth between Matjoeman and I, with vital information such as.
"So, we're masons, uh, what do we want to do".
"____ is kinda scummy"
"I don't know"
"Okay"
I am not confused on whether I've been roleblocked or not. I most certainly havn't. Vote AH
EBWODP
Hadn't seen loran's most recent post. This makes sense to me as well.
I'll wait for AH's response to my vote, but a Az lynch / AH vig might be the correct way to go.
So everyone's posted now, and loran has gone uncounterclaimed. Which makes his Liu Bei claim solid.
Right now, we have AH floundering, and loran's claim of not being blocked directly conflicts with Az's report of being blocked. We also have Az producing weird posts, including things like: "Should we test Loran's unlynchability at some point, btw?"
I think the two of them are definitely our best lead for now. The question is: who to lynch today? Things to consider:
1) Lynching the non-Cao Cao scum today is more efficient for us.
2) Az has claimed a retaliatory killing role, which could be partially true, and therefore vigging him would be slightly more dangerous than vigging AH.
3) If Az turns up scum, it incriminates AH, while if AH turns up scum, there is still a slim chance that Az is not scum.
Okay, deal. We lynch AH. If he's Cao Cao, Kenji vigs him.
If he's scum but not cao cao, Kenji vigs Az.
Deal?
Actually, scratch that. I agree with fade.
Az could be scum and AH could be an honest roleblocker, if Az was scum and had an ability and was informed of the roleblock that AH targetted him with, but that Me and Keeper as not using an ability wouldnt be informed of it.
Thus, Az is most certainly some type of scum, regardless of AH's scumminess. We are better off lynching Az, then vigging him if Az is Cao Cao. AH we can then leave to vigging if Az turns out to be non Cao Cao scum, or we can deal with him tomorrow with some more information about him most likely.
SO, Unvote, Vote Azrael (I think i'm voting him already anyhow)
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
I'm good with that. It will conveniently prove me as town when Kenji vigs me... again, because I won't block him. Then if Az is scum (as I suspect is the case now that the stories about night abilities don't add up) it will be four on one, so hopefully...
Anyone wan't to suggest a RB target for me tonight?
I always find it interesting when a town has an unanswered question, and their automatic response is to flail around with the lynch at everyone involved until they hit a scum. *ironic smile* But sometimes, it does work.
I also find it interesting when scum overextend, salivating over the chance to take down a protected townie.
If the town does decide to pick me over AH as the lynch, then hopefully we'll still get a one for one trade out of the bargain by night. It's quite possible that Kenji will be RBed, however, and that possibility would lessen the trade to a 2 for 1, since you'd have to lynch him tomorrow. If AH is scum, then he's their roleblocker, and any kill from Kenji will be guaranteed not to make it through. Either way, the town ought to get a scum, (and if we were both scum, you'd still win the game either way, but unfortunately that's not the case) but ideally you won't have to give up two townies to nail him.
Worst-case scenario, something unexplained is going on with the abilities or the way roleblocking is handled in this game. But most likely (hopefully) that's not what we're dealing with.
Normally this would be the point in which I dump whatever additional analysis I have onto the thread, but there's little I can offer, except a caution to watch very carefully who was suggesting what, in the aftermath of this.
Not buying it. The roleblocking point suggests very, very strongly you have an active ability (like killing), and that you and AH simply failed to realise that the roleblock wouldn't necessarily be announced to other targets. Instead of confirming you as not-a-killer, your plan has instead exposed you.
I find myself somewhat agreeing (shock horror) with loran's analysis here, other than I still think Azrael's more likely to be cao cao than AH is, and I don't know that we can easily afford to miss today and blow our lynch on cao cao. The thing I like about removing AH is that it removes the roleblock from the equation- we can trust a bit more in Kenji being able to vig the unlynchable one (although I sincerely doubt that the unlynchableness is 100% permanent) and in Liu Bei being saved. Azrael's claim being specifically aimed at deterring night kills strongly makes me think it's him who is invulnerable to lynches, though, not AH.
Actually, regarding roleblocks, I'm trying to remember now if we've had any other claimed roleblocks besides the ones that cp and AH have claimed responsibility for. For starters, we had one on Kenji, I think there was at least one other one. The timing would fit in on AH blocking those people rather than keeper and loran. Azrael would still probably be scum in that scenario, mind you, since he described the block on him as being like cp's roleblock and the block on Kenji was that aura thing, right? So Az would still be a liar, but it would explain the abilities we've seen a bit better.
Vote stands on AH, with recommendation to vig Azrael.
You have some good points RafaelK, which makes me very worried about the future. So let me show you another way of doing this. We attempt to lynch Az, prove him as Cao Cao. Kenji goes to vig him, and I do nothing to stop it. Tomorrow you have dead Cao Cao, a live vig, and a live role blocker all working towards a town victory. I won't be exactly cleared, but I'd hope letting Cao Cao die would be a large evidence towards it.
The plan doesn't exactly work if Az isn't Cao Cao. In that case, I'll let myself die to Kenji. Please accept my proposal, in the end I'm sure it will be best for the town.
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I agree, if the MO doesn't show up again in following nights, then I should very rightfully come under some suspicion for that.
A great plan, but what if there's more than one mafia remaining? Then what? I have a feeling we've been dealing with the failsafe mafias (DZ and wu) before the wei, and as a result there are two or three wei remaining. It's a bad place.
A dead roleblocker. Seriously. I don't know what to say.
Exactly the same. In fact, Fayul even mentioned something like "but how can that be?" in the PM.
1. Azrael - blocked by CP (started this mess)
4. Fadeblue - no outright claim. Has posted since the question.
5. RafaelK - not blocked
7. Arimnaes - no outright claim. Has posted since the question.
11. loran16 - no claim
13. KeeperEUSC - not blocked
17. Abandon Hope - not blocked
19. Kenji - not blocked
It would be good to fill this list in. So let's hear from Fade, Ariminaes, and definatly Loran. Or anyone else if there needs to be a revision.
Some thinking: Even if there are 2 scum left, we have some margin for error. With 8 alive, we'll be at 6 tomorrow (5 if Kenji decides to take a chance). At that point we're in LyLo, but hopefully it'll be clear then who the scum are. Otherwise, if there's only 1 scum, we have even more room for error.
I think there is some flavor and action analysis that needs to be done. I'm tired from AX, so I can't do it tonight, but I will try to work on it tomorrow.
Meh, for this reason fade cited, that it's not Lynch or Lose, I'm hesitant to claim. Still, I'll do so if called upon.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
1. Azrael - blocked by CP (started this mess)
4. Fadeblue - not blocked
5. RafaelK - not blocked
7. Arimnaes - not blocked
11. loran16 - not blocked
13. KeeperEUSC - not blocked
17. Abandon Hope - not blocked
19. Kenji - not blocked
This is very interesting to me. Here's why. My original ability was a one time copy ability. As soon as I replaced, I used on CP. Which is why we have the same MO. I learned from him. In the following nights I roleblocked Keeper, Loran, and Az. In that order.
So, what can we deduce from this? If there is only one Wei left (i dont think so) our scum is limited to RafaelK, Fade, and Arimnaes (Kenji being cleared as vig, and me because I know). But we had two people lie about being roleblocked. Or maybe they were just confused. Let's hear from Keeper and Loran.
So do not panic Az, you weren't blocked by a dead man.
I'm leaning toward a vote on Keeper, ATM.
I will do so if the town wishes.
Actually, it occurs to me I only have to partial claim, so I'll do so without waiting for a response.
I said before "as far as I know" because i have no ability. Thus roleblocking me is sadly less than effective
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Hmmm, ok, that would make sense. Are we really that lucky, to catch those two red-handed? That would certainly be bad times for the scums, if they thought they could get away with lying since CP was dead. Or is this some kind of a gambit? But why gambit when there's this many people left: even with an extra kill thrown in, if there's merely two scum left they couldn't hope to end the game by morning. No, that part doesn't make much sense at all. Ok, yeah, I think I'm tentatively trusting the unforced claim from AH. Let's hear from Keeper.
The tricks in the tale here are:
1) I didn't trust AH before this. He may not have blocked either loran or keeper, if it amounts to anything, and his masonry was with a guy who claimed to be able to convert a mafia member (which suggests that there may have been something tricksy in his role which he wasn't aware of, because converting a mafia would normally be broken), and he tried to rush lynch Kenji.
2) AH might be trying to pull a distraction from either himself or Azrael (probably the two leading targets before this) over to keeper and loran. I also note that AH has tried for a secondary throw of suspicion on to me, fade and arimnaes. This sort of generalized throwing around of suspicion and hoping some of it sticks is very scummy.
3) If AH can copy anyone's ability, why (as town) copy a roleblocker instead of hanging out to save a cop or doc ability when one such was exposed. I don't know we were really crying out for a bonus roleblocker. On the other hand, the only ability better for the scum to copy would be vig, and it could well be that for balance reasons he can't copy the vig (or simply got impatient and thought a few nights of bonus roleblocking beat potentially finding a vig down the line).
I quite like the possibility of an AH/Azrael mafia pairing in this situation, especially now that Az has swooped in and "tentatively trusted" AH.
AH has tried to say keeper/loran are liars and also tried some bad logic (ie. that only one scum's left, as arimnaes pointed out there's probably two) to attack me, fade and arim.
That leaves, as far as I can see, just AH and Azrael and Kenji that AH hasn't tried to tar there (and Kenji's too cleared to tar). I do enjoy it when scum paint road-signs for me.
vote Abandon Hope
I have never believed there was only one scum left. Never. I'm not sure what gave you that idea. Maybe I said something stupid. I don't remember it, but I'll clear that up now. I believe we have more than one scum remaining. In fact, if you'll refer to my post where I supposedly accuse you, arimnaes, and fade of being the three remaining scum, you'll notice that there in parentheses I say that I don't believe that's the case. There's no need for you to be terribly defensive about this. You weren't accused.
I was afraid you'd come after me when I claimed. You sounded so hostile in the "don't fish for modkills" post. I hope I have explained everything to your satisfaction.
@Loran: I don't see how that clears you. You knew the MO. Are you telling me you wern't notified of the roleblock? Or that you didn't know what it did? I'm still suspicious, but a little less so.
So where does this leave us? We have the following possibilities:
1) loran and Keeper are lying about not being roleblocked, or are mistaken.
2) Fayul has been inconsistent and notified some people of blocks and not others.
3) AH is lying about blocking loran and Keeper.
4) Az is lying about being blocked (either once or twice).
5) Az is lying about not having an active ability.
I think that covers the possibilities, though if there are others, please bring them up.
Like RafK pointed out, I don't like how AH limits the scum to me, Raf, and arimnaes, yet still turns to Keeper and loran first. Supposedly, the argument depends on there being 1 or 2 scum, but I don't see how.
I also am wary about AH copying a claimed roleblocker (and the whole timing of it), but I won't omit the possibility of questionable play. Few people can make perfect decisions, particularly when viewed in hindsight.
Strangely, Az's last post doesn't even sound like Azrael to me (particularly the first three sentences). Though it may be internal bias trying to support the Az = Cao Cao theory.
@ loran: I don't see how claiming no active abilities was supposed to "clear" you at all. Explain?
Please notice the first parentheses. It says I don't believe this scenario to be true.
That said, if there was one scum remaining it would be true. The roleblock would prevent the nightkill for the only mafia. Eliminating anyone I blocked as mafia. Kenji is vig, and I know myself. Therefore the remaining three would be Fade, Raf, Arimnaes. One more time: I don't believe this is the case. I think we have more than one scum remaining.
That's a very good point re: Az noticing the roleblock but loran not noticing. I would narrow it down to your options 1, 3 or 5: keeper/loran are lying or mistaken, AH is lying about roleblocking them in the first place, Az is lying about not having an active ability. In the first case, loran and/or keeper are probably our mafia. In the third, AH (obv) and possibly Azrael. In the 5th, Azrael (obv) and probably AH.
Honestly, that little point strengthens my feeling that this is an AH/Az scum setup (alternately, AH may be right and it may be loran and keeper lying, we don't yet know, keeper hasn't even responded to all this yet).
As a counter to my own theory, it would seem odd thematically that people wouldn't be told about CP affecting them, a bit of a breach of flavour if you would. With that protective aura thingy, did people with no active ability get told if they had that? I want to say yes, but I'm a bit hazy as to who actually said they got that.
I read SW mafia a couple of months back after it was mentioned early in either this game or Star Trek. A rather large part of the game turned on a player not being told that their "hiding" ability had failed, even though thematically a player should know that they've failed to hide. As it happens, Azrael was a scum in that game (the scum got lynched practically all in a row in that game), and you'd think that would mean he wouldn't be caught out here assuming something worked thematically without knowing for sure- but you never know. Az has been kind of screwy lately.
AH copying a roleblocker and then going on a rb spree (care to say why you blocked who you blocked, AH?) sits badly with me, as I said earlier. It's not really a good excuse that he did it to "clear" cp, since for all he knew he could have been copying a scum roleblocker (of course, if AH is scum, of course he knew he was copying a town roleblocker!). That said, look at the mind-boggingly inexplicable decisions made by draygn_mage in Sin City which me as scum made such a big song and dance about. It DOES happen. I don't like making decisions on the basis that the other guy is an idiot, though. Well, only where the other guy IS an idiot. I'm not really convinced of that with AH
The trick of saying something but adding in a little aside to say you didn't really mean it is an old one. Standard mafia practice to allow yourself a disclaimer. The key question is- why say it if you didn't mean it? The real deduction to be gained from your information is the deduction fadeblue made.
You also didn't, in fact, say you think there's two scum. You just said we had two people lie about being roleblocked, which is still not necessarily accurate- the most you could have said even without loran's explanation is that two people claimed not to know they were roleblocked. Calling them liars was jumping the gun- they might be, but you don't know that yet.
My worse case scenario was that the town would take my roleblocks as clearance and lynch three people who I thought were unlikely. Loran and Keeper's inconsistancies were just what I was hoping for, enough evidence to hopefully keep away from this potentially disasterous line of reasoning. You're right, saying they were lying might have been jumping the gun. So I added the bit about confusion directly after that, and asked them to explain. Note the lack of a vote here. I wasn't saying there was a definite conclusion to my information. I was saying we have things to discuss.
EBWODP (sorry fade): Ok so I misread that. The part about confirmed in thread. I don't remember, and I'm going to bed. Suffice to say I went on vacation, and when I returned (like 2 days later) he'd claimed both our role names.
This is still faulty logic. Yes, if we only had 1 mafia, then a successful roleblock would mean no nightkill. But having 2 mafia doesn't make it more likely that loran or Keeper is scum than Raf, arim, or me. So why try to group the town?
You accused loran and Keeper of lying because they didn't know they had been roleblocked. And if you look at their posts, you'll see that they didn't realize that people with no abilities are supposedly still notified of being blocked (or you could argue they are feigning ignorance). Did you already realize it at that point (when you accused them of being liars)?
I'm Liu Bei. My only ability is the unlynchableness that is currently still intact (I asked Fayul this via PM and she said it was still there).
So Fade, does that clear me?
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Considering that clearing me poses a whole lot of questions for Az and AH (WHY DID AZKNOW that he was roleblocked if he is vanilla?????), I figure it was rather worth it.
In fact: Vote Abandon Hope.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
And is it just me, or should we be a little concerned about someone who claimed unlynchableness when thats also the ability of Cao Cao our archnemisis? Especially when Loran asked Fayul if it was still in effect. Why wouldn't it be? Was it ever not in effect?
I think we may have found Cao Cao.
@Loran: You just posted again without answering the question.
Fayul, in her post at the start of Day 3 (post #901), informed us that Liu Bei, Cao Cao, and Sun Jian cannot be banished during the day. What does this imply? That Liu Bei, Cao Cao, and Sun Jian are in the game. Unless loran is counterclaimed, his Liu Bei claim confirms him.
As to why you before Az?
1) If he's Cao Cao, he's unlynchable, duh.
2) You're the RB, we may need Kenji active and free to use his ability to vig Cao Cao.
3) You're the RB, and we don't want to risk the doc being blocked down because Liu Bei needs protection- I'm going to make an exception against the usual rule of not leading the doc, because in this situation it looks like one of the only ways out for the scumzorz is if some event is triggered by the death of Liu Bei.
EWP: sarnathed by fade
The reason I asked about when Xyre came out and confirmed you was to see if you might have wanted to off him soon afterwards, once he had served his purpose, the way that Rafaelk did to Armlx in Sin City. The situations do seem eerily similar in a couple respects, in both games there were multiple "mason" groups, one of which contained a traitor mason who partially confirmed his buddy before being dispensed with. That is still a distinct possbility.
However, I'm still inclined to believe the unforced claim. The only way I'd see it making much sense as a gambit was if it was designed to clear Loran or Keeper at your expense, or if you wanted to be lynched, neither of which is likely.
Should we test Loran's unlynchability at some point, btw?
1) Confirm that you are still unlynchable.
2) Confirm whether or not the day will end.
If the day doesn't end, then test away. But if it does, it would be a total waste of time, as loran is cleared regardless unless someone counterclaims Liu Bei.
It's not, because that would mean that Az was lying and you were likely telling the truth. But if he is vanilla, then there is a significant discrepancy at work in terms of how roleblocks are handled in this game. Which means that out of you, Azrael, and Keeper (I'm clearing loran, at this point), it's likely if not downright guaranteed that at least one of you is lying about your abilities on some level.
Since loran is cleared, we know he's likely telling the truth that he received no message about being blocked. Which means Keeper is not that likely to be lying, either. Which would in turn mean that either Azrael is lying about being blocked (or at least about being notified of the block), or he is lying about his abilities, or you are lying about blocking Keeper and loran.
It's unlikely that Azrael just made up the block, because it would look strange indeed if such a block never showed up again. So, here are the only two possibilities that I can see:
1. Azrael lied about having no active abilities.
2. AH lied about blocking Keeper and Loran.
3. There's something screwy I haven't considered which caused Keeper and Loran not to see that they were blocked, bu Azrael did.
Is there anything wrong with my train of thought?
That said, Im fairly certain AH and Az are grasping at straws. They smell like the last two scum to me. However, now that I think about it, I think Az is more likely to be the last non-Cao Cao scum, as Ah is so desperate to protect him.
So Vote Azrael
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
I have never become aware of a nightblock on me. That being said, I havn't been active during the night at all this game, with the exception of maybe Night 1 and Night 2, which consisted of messages back and forth between Matjoeman and I, with vital information such as.
"So, we're masons, uh, what do we want to do".
"____ is kinda scummy"
"I don't know"
"Okay"
I am not confused on whether I've been roleblocked or not. I most certainly havn't. Vote AH
EBWODP
Hadn't seen loran's most recent post. This makes sense to me as well.
I'll wait for AH's response to my vote, but a Az lynch / AH vig might be the correct way to go.
Right now, we have AH floundering, and loran's claim of not being blocked directly conflicts with Az's report of being blocked. We also have Az producing weird posts, including things like: "Should we test Loran's unlynchability at some point, btw?"
I think the two of them are definitely our best lead for now. The question is: who to lynch today? Things to consider:
1) Lynching the non-Cao Cao scum today is more efficient for us.
2) Az has claimed a retaliatory killing role, which could be partially true, and therefore vigging him would be slightly more dangerous than vigging AH.
3) If Az turns up scum, it incriminates AH, while if AH turns up scum, there is still a slim chance that Az is not scum.
Vote stands on AH.
If he's scum but not cao cao, Kenji vigs Az.
Deal?
Actually, scratch that. I agree with fade.
Az could be scum and AH could be an honest roleblocker, if Az was scum and had an ability and was informed of the roleblock that AH targetted him with, but that Me and Keeper as not using an ability wouldnt be informed of it.
Thus, Az is most certainly some type of scum, regardless of AH's scumminess. We are better off lynching Az, then vigging him if Az is Cao Cao. AH we can then leave to vigging if Az turns out to be non Cao Cao scum, or we can deal with him tomorrow with some more information about him most likely.
SO, Unvote, Vote Azrael (I think i'm voting him already anyhow)
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Anyone wan't to suggest a RB target for me tonight?
I also find it interesting when scum overextend, salivating over the chance to take down a protected townie.
If the town does decide to pick me over AH as the lynch, then hopefully we'll still get a one for one trade out of the bargain by night. It's quite possible that Kenji will be RBed, however, and that possibility would lessen the trade to a 2 for 1, since you'd have to lynch him tomorrow. If AH is scum, then he's their roleblocker, and any kill from Kenji will be guaranteed not to make it through. Either way, the town ought to get a scum, (and if we were both scum, you'd still win the game either way, but unfortunately that's not the case) but ideally you won't have to give up two townies to nail him.
Worst-case scenario, something unexplained is going on with the abilities or the way roleblocking is handled in this game. But most likely (hopefully) that's not what we're dealing with.
Normally this would be the point in which I dump whatever additional analysis I have onto the thread, but there's little I can offer, except a caution to watch very carefully who was suggesting what, in the aftermath of this.
I find myself somewhat agreeing (shock horror) with loran's analysis here, other than I still think Azrael's more likely to be cao cao than AH is, and I don't know that we can easily afford to miss today and blow our lynch on cao cao. The thing I like about removing AH is that it removes the roleblock from the equation- we can trust a bit more in Kenji being able to vig the unlynchable one (although I sincerely doubt that the unlynchableness is 100% permanent) and in Liu Bei being saved. Azrael's claim being specifically aimed at deterring night kills strongly makes me think it's him who is invulnerable to lynches, though, not AH.
Actually, regarding roleblocks, I'm trying to remember now if we've had any other claimed roleblocks besides the ones that cp and AH have claimed responsibility for. For starters, we had one on Kenji, I think there was at least one other one. The timing would fit in on AH blocking those people rather than keeper and loran. Azrael would still probably be scum in that scenario, mind you, since he described the block on him as being like cp's roleblock and the block on Kenji was that aura thing, right? So Az would still be a liar, but it would explain the abilities we've seen a bit better.
Vote stands on AH, with recommendation to vig Azrael.
The plan doesn't exactly work if Az isn't Cao Cao. In that case, I'll let myself die to Kenji. Please accept my proposal, in the end I'm sure it will be best for the town.