99% seems somewhat high given that it's the same percentage you use for LJustus and I not both being scum. Or were you exaggerating deliberately ?
Well, you've completely convinced me.
But joking apart, the actual logical conclusion is interesting despite being different from where you ended up. One of the following cases must apply:
1) I am scum.
2) The Mafia have a list of roles.
3) Axelrod's theory is correct.
Now I didn't play in Shaman Mafia, but if I believe your statements about it even a little bit that makes your analysis extreeemely useful to me.
OK, I apologize for not breaking down my estimations below the whole percentage point level. I actually consider it more likely that both you and LJustus are scum than that the mafia have a list of roles, because I find it to be totally unbelievable. The only reason I put the (IMO 99%) there was because I have no actual proof.
Notice, please, that my conclusion was that you are probably scum. I acknowledge both the possibilities you mention, but I think that both of them are in the <1% range.
The only reason I decided to unvote you (sorry, fade, Unvote Bat) was because we're potentially about to get the SK, which is a bigger deal. I fully plan to vote for you again tomorrow.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Well, like I said, I knew that me telling the truth in my claim wouldn't get peoples supsions off of me, but I'm ok with me being the lynch today. I killed Chamber night o because of all the drama concerning him being in too many games. I seriously thought Az was scum, without a doubt in my mind...so that shows how off I was. This being my third game means nothing when the 2nd game I only replaced and had a few days and very few posts, I'm still learning the ropes, and I've learned a lot from my mistakes in this game. I'm kind of sad at how much faith some of you are putting in those numbers...I'm pretty sure that if he actually was given a list that it would not be the list he posted.
Speed lynching me will only keep the town from info, and we're getting to close to the deadline for RafaelK.
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@Puzzle: /sigh. I had my vote on him before and replaced it after his weak claim. I'm just as curious as you are about CPE's information (#526), but history shows he's not very active and we may be here a week waiting for his input. Can we be sure everyone's going to sit here and not post until CPE shows up? If the day ends when RafaelK's post count gets reached (which we don't know), then we lose him and CPE both (should the mafia off him in the night without protection). I'll unvote: WOLG, but I'm not going to be thrilled if the above occurs. I'm done posting until we hear from CPE.
Here's another tip, Well. If you're a vig., and you kill a member of the town or two, it doesn't help your claim later for you to speculate that it was the SK who did the killings. In fact, it rather makes you look quite guilty. So guilty that there is really no decision at all to be made here.
I'm ready to vote him. I also want to hear what CPE has to say, but I'm concerned how long we might have to wait. So I suppose I'll say the same as others which is that I'll try to refrain from running up the post count until he chimes in.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
OK, I actually did the count, and post 582 (barring additional posts by the mod) will be the last post at which Raf will still be alive, assuming he's telling the truth. That's 41 more posts after this one, max. I just thought it would be useful for everyone to know exactly how close we are, so that nobody could say they weren't aware once the deadline passed.
I don't think we need to worry too much, though. All it will take at this point is 2 very easy and obvious votes to end the day.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
If anyone else had pulled this, I'd FoS them, but I know you're telling the truth about the way you were blocked, so I know you're mostly cleared.
So, we already know what CPE's knowledge about me is. He hinted at it at the beginning of the day. All we are going to do is narrow down townies who have night abilities for the mafia. I objected to it at the beginning of the day. Of course, I object to it now. With CPE's persistence though, we have given the mafia more information that they can use to win the game.
Well that certainly doesn't look good for WOLG... I'd vote him, but doing so would lynch him, and I'd like to hear what exactly it is CPE has to say, though I do have a strong suspicion of what it's about. I won't post until after CPE says anything, if at all, as a service to Raf, though I'm still not convinced he's town.
My information is that Ljustice left his house night 2, and went to another backyard and then went back to his own house. I would like to know more about this, but it can wait for tommarrow as you guys want to lynch WOLG thats fine with me. As for stuff about night 1 I dont have any.
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Quote from hotshizzle »
<hotshizle> WINE IN FRONT OF MEAL
<hotshizle> i think
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
OK, that was worth waiting for, eh? Now lets end the day already.
I agree, and theres no need to possibly waste another townie by killing RafaelK as well as me.Since you all want me dead, and I recognize that I have not played very well this game...Vote:WellOfLostGnomes Any advice to me about play style would be nice, as I'll try not to screw up in Random 2 as well. Note to all: I am the vig, a TOWNIE, not the sk, as you'll see at the close of the day.
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I'm going to go back and re-read all your posts to see if there's any way you are not scum here.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
WoLG: you have managed to play exactly like a SK this game. If you're not, then you deserve some kind of SK look-a-like award, and, in addition, something very screwy is going on with the rest of the game.
Under the whole "looks like a duck" rationle:
Vote: WellofLostGnomes
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
WoLG, most of your play was, in my opinion, not very scummy. However, it wasn't good either. A couple points: when you attack someone (i.e. CropCircles), make sure you actually have a case. Don't just say something because you think it sounds good, make sure you can actually back it up.
If you ever plan on claiming, make sure you're consistent. The very first game of mafia I ever played, I lost because I claimed cop after speculating about the cop's role/actions in a way that implied I was not the cop. People sieze on that kind of thing, and it's hard to explain. You're guilty of claiming inconsistently too, which is why I now believe you to be scum.
Advice on how to use the vig role has already been given. Nobody thinks the vig is not a powerful role; it's an incredibly powerful role. You have probably more opportunity to screw up the game for the town than anyone. If you really are the vig, I may well eat my hat, just because you've really managed to hurt the town a lot. I mean, you've effectively given the scum a reprieve of a day and a half, with little to no worthwhile information in exchange.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Play advice will come at the end of the game. For now, I'll just say this: If you are town, and we end up losing this, I'm totally blaming you.
Seconded.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
My information is that Ljustice left his house night 2, and went to another backyard and then went back to his own house. I would like to know more about this, but it can wait for tommarrow as you guys want to lynch WOLG thats fine with me. As for stuff about night 1 I dont have any.
The point was that if he left night 1 he was scum. The night 2 info isn't implicating at all. We're back to Ljustus being mostly confirmed for the roleblocker thing, but now the mafia know something.
I'm glad we finished within the limit (just). Mr Mod, I reckon that day didn't drag too much even at that length. Is it too much to ask for a nicer limit tomorrow? You don't have to answer that publically
Waiting for confirmation, but someone who killed blind on night 1 and killed a townie analyst who hadn't seemed overly suspicious on night 2 and then claims vig, followed by the self-vote and "oh, you'll see" guilt trip = SK. Or someone doing the best SK impression I've ever seen, outside of Tom Cruise mafia over on mafiascum. Now there was a classic. I mentioned this one to a few of you before.
Day 1, everyone wakes up, 2 kills. One of them is described as a professional handgun shot, and is of the doctor.
During the day, someone is driven to claim. They claim Anderton, cop, from Minority Report.
The REAL Anderton, who was of course the real cop, counterclaimed. Down goes player A. He turns out to be Vincent. TOWN VIGILANTE. The real Anderton is promptly nightkilled.
Day 2, town wakes up with its doc, cop and vig dead because the vig killed the doc night 1 and then not only false-claimed but false-claimed the cop's role and got him to counterclaim. I don't think I'd ever seen someone more deserving of town LVP
That was a funny game, though. The mafia turned out to be all early small roles of Cruise, jealous of the later ones, and the SK turned out to be Brooke Shields (he claimed Katie Holmes during the game).
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Not Voting- Kenji, Turbo164, CPE, Matjoeman, Crippled Fist, silicon
Day 2 Lynch Scene
After much debate regarding the reliability of the Goth Kid’s information, suspicion falls on WellOfLostGnomes. “Even you said you could be the serial killer,” some cry. Other claim “even if he’s a townie he’s put two of our own in the hospital.” Eventually, even he decides that it is in the town’s best interests to leave. The mob of you walk him to the principal’s office, and turn him in for crimes he has committed. Principle Mage signs the expulsion papers somewhat regretfully.
No Longer Enrolled WellOfLostGnomes- The Jock
It is now Night 3, send in your choices if you have them.
Forgot to say. Night 3 deadline is Thursday at the time of this edit. If everyone is done before then, the obviously, daylight will come earlier.
Good morning students, here are today’s announcements. The troubling news that seems to be plaguing our school seems to have continued.
First, I would like to remind students that while toilet papering a former students house is not strictly an expellable offense, we ask the unknown party who did so to WellOfLostGnome’s house to refrain from doing so again.
On a more serious note, we have apprehended the student who sent a bomb threat to the school this morning. On a tip, the police searched creampuffeater’s house and discovered a rough draft in his garbage can. He has been expelled.
I was saddened to hear from Puzzle’s parents this morning that he will no longer be coming here. The poor boy seems to have contracted some kind of wasting disease that has affected his, uh, unmentionable, uh area. Doctors assure us that with a lot of time and many, many antibiotics, he may recover and be able to reproduce, but it won’t be any time this school year.
Also, the students who depants’d bateleur this morning should be ashamed of themselves. He is taking the day off from school and will be back tomorrow morning.
No Longer Enrolled Puzzle- The Young Republican Creampuffeater- The Invisible Kid
I'm currently considering putting a list of mafia guidelines in my sig. Things like "If you are a vig, don't fire night 1" and "If you don't post content, you will be lynched" so new players can help us to not lynch them.
CPE was almost definatly killed because of his ability. What's interesting to me is that it was apparantly WoLG who killed Az, so the mafia killed JC. I don't understand the reason's for either of the mafia's first 2 kills.
This new type of "death" is interesting. It could be a one shot type thing, or it could be the result of Puzzle's role, similair to RafealK's "death by boredom." Either way, Puzzle was apparantly neutral or at least not strickly town. It is possible that he was one of the other "1"s in Crippled's list, which would also explain his faith in CF.
Now here's the question. Do we believe that Puzzle was the singular win condition "1," or the alternate win condition "1?" If he were a SK, we should have seen 3 deaths a night. If he were a cult leader, then a group of others should have died, or they would be released and able to confirm this. However, it is also very possible he was a recruit. Any way you slice it, WoLG's townieness seems to support a cult in this game, excepting, of course, the possibility of a skilled doc.
For my final piece of speculation on Puzzle, I think that it is possible that Puzzle's role had something to do with killing RafaelK. It would explain his attack of him, and then the "miscalculation" near the end there. That easily could have been a cunning plan (TM) to get him killed. Or to find out if he was lying. I don't think this scenario is particularly likely, but I'm trying to keep an open mind.
Apparantly, someone didn't want bateleur to keep talking. I would assume this is a mafia ability. But wait...bateleur was not one of the dudes with info, was he? Wouldn't it make sense for a mafia silencer to target fade, Kenji, C_P, or Axel? (Those were the ones who claimed they could potentially clear townies, iirc. Correct if I'm wrong.) So maybe they silenced bateleur to make him look like a townie. Well, at this point we're in WIFOM up to our heads, so I don't think we can safely assume anything based on his silencing.
Well, after stumbling through the thread looking for info in support of the above, I came across this beauty.
Quote from LJustus, post 453 »
Well, I can confirm that AgentDark was lying about the way the mafia roleblocker works. I didn't target anyone on the first night. I simply looked out the window, then saw the shadow and became scared. I then sat down on the couch and watched movies for the rest of the night.
First of all, it's worth noting that with the potential for a cult much more open, LJustus is much less cleared.
Second, we now know that LJustus left his house night 2. If we're believing him, that means he did not use his ability night 1, and then did on night 2. Exactly what kind of (non-vig) ability would you not want to use on night 1? I think there is a possibility that he was lying about not using an ability night 1, to make for an easier false claim later. Potential cult leader? I think so. Minor Fos LJustus
My X value shot up (well, relatively) to 25. 25 x 14 = 350, which is pretty close to the amount of posts yesterday. Which didn't turn out to be horribly many. If WOLG had been able to clear himself, we'd have run out of space. I'd assume the change in values is pre-planned and not arbitrary, but no idea what the pattern is. Maybe it's based on scum deaths, or town deaths, or Puzzle deaths. Maybe it's based on the amount I say chicken. Chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken.
It's matjoeman who claimed to have been distracted by pretty girls, right? Same happened to me last night, so I'll confirm that we have someone who uses pretty girls to distract people.
Ah, Puzzle Puzzle Puzzle. No wonder he was so much after me because of speculating about a cult or second scum group. So obviously scummy, really- how many times did people (people other than me, even) say something like they'd vote him or FOS him except he was so obviously not a scum? Gave it off in waves. So I wonder... do we have a 2nd (luckier) vig, or do we have an SK who either didn't kill or has been blocked and/or struck protection? Whichever side you're on and however your rolename has been phrased, congratulations to the School Bike/School **** for removing Puzzle for us.
And FOS Crippled_Fist for being defended by Puzzle. I doubt Puzzle was planning on being killed. Leader of Puzzle's cult or whatever the hell group he was?
I'm... I dunno, stunned by silencing bateleur. Silencing is weird. In theoy, if used by a townie, you wouldn't want to silence a townie but also silencing your mafia suspect is bad because the town's unlikely to bandwagon someone to death who can't defend themselves unless there's an inspection or something. If it's a mafia ability, if bat is town they just silenced a guy who had a lot of suspicion and might have otherwise been bandwagonned today and if bat is mafia they just silenced one of their own and raised his profile (this choice makes vaguely more sense than the others, mind you, if they were that worried for bateleur being bandwagonned today). However, silencing is exceptionally strong for the mafia (they get to nullify votes) and if the mafia have it why haven't they been using it?
Ack. Too much info. Head hurting. Need time to process.
Seriously, this is crazy. Way too much is happening. Did Crippled_Fist just admit to being a cultist. But he also said he didn't know who the other ones were? That's probably worthy of a vote right there. That's not how Cults usually work, if I know anything about Cults (which I may not).
I think silencing Bat. was probably a bad idea also.
We are definitely missing some kills. The mafia are "clearly" the ones doing the "framing." WoLG claimed the "Jock" kills on Chamber and Azreal. And now, for the first time we have an STD death. Where did that come from? Could be a one-shot. Could be a SK who has missed/declined kills for the first 2 nights?
Still processing....
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Actually you got it backwards. Puzzle was the leader of the group, and he defended me so vigorously because he recruited me Night 1 (so yeah, I was a cultist). Now that he's dead I have become the townie I originally was, and if I understand anything about cults there should be one or two others, depending if Puzzle got his recruiting through this night or not, who can confirm this.
I'm also most intrigued about the fact 2 killings still occured despite having our over-zealous vig dead, but it could've been a mafia one-shot. There's not much in speculating that until more nights have passed.
Btw, the numbers are true.
Well, assuming Puzzle wasn't lying about being blocked night 2, the highest number of people other Puzzle could have recruited besides CF is 1, if it went through last night... but then again if it went through, it doesn't seem like it would have done much. As for CF not knowing other members, according to the posts that... I think CC made during random 1 (sorry if I got that wrong, I'm too tired to look it up right now), it's possible.
The, is it possible that there's a matching Democrat out there? I have never been in a game that included a cult before, but it seems that having two cults may be a bit overwhelming from a numbers standpoint.
I have some thoughts about why bat, in particular, would have been silenced today, but I am going to look over the first two days to see if I am missing anything. I don't want to post something prematurely which may be inaccurate, so please bear with me.
Going to do a quick scan back through the thread, but didn't we have some people claim to have had a dream about George Bush? Was that Puzzle- does anyone remember?
Also, just as a reference:
Quote from Crippled_Fist »
I'm the Booker, and at the beginning of the game I got to know the amount of win conditions and the original sizes of the separate win condition groups. The numbers were as follows: 1, 1, 2, 5, 17. As there isn't a group of 4 sharing a win condition, AD is lying.
There's the list, so we don't all have to go back through the thread to find it like I just did.
Actually you got it backwards. Puzzle was the leader of the group, and he defended me so vigorously because he recruited me Night 1 (so yeah, I was a cultist). Now that he's dead I have become the townie I originally was, and if I understand anything about cults there should be one or two others, depending if Puzzle got his recruiting through this night or not, who can confirm this.
Okay, maybe I'm getting ahead of myself here, but that seems pretty solid.The problem, of course, is that Puzz was supposedly blocked night 2(iirc) which means will only have another cultist confirm this if his recruit went through last night.
Quote from Axelrod »
That's not how Cults usually work, if I know anything about Cults (which I may not).
I assure you, you don't. As I pointed out in Random 1, you can go look at Simpsons mafia on Scum for a two beautiful variantions on the standard cult. In one of them, the members did not communicate at night at all, and in the other, the members retained their win condition and would be unrecruited at the leaders death(iirc). There is no distinct way that a cult has to operate. It's probably the scum group with the most room for variation. Furthermore, our mod was part of the fiasco that broke Random 1, so I would think that he would have taken proper precautions to avoid an encore preformance. Cutting the cult's communication could account for that precaution.
I would like to remind everyone to be mindful of Raf's "limited attention span." That doesn't mean lurkers should continue lurking. If you have something to say, by all means, post it. But avoid posts that say nothing but "Yay we got the cult" or "OMFG pwn3d."
EWP: This post was longer, but I got sarnath'd like mad.
Okay, Puzzle did say he had a dream about G.W. Bush, and given what CF just said, this makes a certain amount of sense. If the "Recriuts" aren't told who the leader is, or even who else is in the Cult, they might end up lynching him. Puzzle's comment therefore would have been his was of telling his recruits that he was one of them--and hinting that he was the leader.
He was probably blocked night 2 so didn't recruit anyone else. And if he recruited night 3, but died, it's possible that DM wouldn't have even told the recruit what happened. So all that is at least consistent. On the other hand, CF could still be "Cult." We only have his word for it that he reverted. That seems less likely, but still possible.
LJustus, I wouldn't spend too much time thinking about why Bat. was silenced. It's probably not what you are thinking. Oooo. I'm being cryptic.
Anyone going to claim being "blocked" by a Shadow last night?
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Okay, so I did a little searching, and yes, in fact, Puzzle did claim to have a dream about President Bush.
Quote from Puzzle »
Hum, I won't post much before Monday but I have been role-blocked. It may or may not mean that I have an ability, but there was a huge shadow around my house. I also seem to have had had a dream about president Bush.
Has anyone been blocked night 1 in a similar fashion ?
This seems a little weird, because one would think this would be the recruiting mechanism, not something the cult leader would have happen to him. OTOH, of course, this could be his "Cunning Plan" to have let his members know who he is.
It looks like from his post he was "blocked" night 2, checking to see if anyone else had been "blocked" night 1.
Where there's this:
Quote from LJustus »
I could be lying about it, but wouldn't the person who was roleblocked by the shadow on Night 1 come forward to point me out as scum? That hasn't happened because I was blocked Night 1.
Is LJustus a recruit, too? Is it possible that we have a different cult leader out there, and C_F is lying about returning to normal townie status? Could be. We very well could have just killed a cultist, and not the leader. Is C_F the leader?
1. Reviewed my "shadow" PM again. I had no dreams. Of course, I would expect someone to say that even if they had dreams. I guess my word is all I've got here.
2. I was going over the thread again, and some things struck me as odd:
Crop Circles – Went through most of Day 1 with a “random vote” on fadeblue for being a mod. Of course, we all know who also voted fadeblue for being a mod on Day 1. (Hint: It was AgentDark.) Then, he continued debating the setup of the game as 2-mafia after Crippled_Fist revealed his role and associated information. Then, he casts the next to last (so as to not look scummy) vote on AgentDark shortly (relatively, of course) before the end of the day.
Day 2, post 241: says it “may or may not be a good idea” for Axel/bat to reveal information they are hinting at about role similarities or groups. Admits that he is fishing for info while pointing out that Axel is fishing for info. Defends Turbo.
Places 5th vote (which ended up being vote #3) on WOLG after much squabbling back and forth. I can’t really fault him for this though. Also FOS’s RafaelK after votes by Crippled_Fist and silicon and much suspicion by Puzzle.
--- I don't know what to make of this, but I have a feeling of scumminess. I think it is the long-standing initial vote on fade and the "next to last vote" on AD on Day 1 that drew my attention.
Minor FoS: CropCircles
Sounds like maybe the Young Democrat could be the SK. This has to be the case if the Democrat is present and we believe CF's numbers. (Also, STD is the kill method, after all.) </speculation>
Well, this game certainly is eventfull. @_@ The STD kill is what I really don't get. It seems to have come out of no where. The only connection I can draw is the "girl" that roleblocked people, but I don't believe Puzzle was ever blocked that way.
As for CF, I have had some experiance with Cults, and I have never encountered one that disbanded when the leader died. I won't rule it out though, as someone said it is a highly flexible group. I'll have my eye on you.
Did we have someone unable to post on other days? This certainly seems a little convienant for Bat. as he was recieving pressure yesterday, and now suddenly can't post. I think that this post restrictor may be scum trying to help Bat. out.
I'll the third the sentiment that we are in a bit of an info overload. I'm going to have to re-read this thread soon.
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"There is no royal road to science, and only those who do not dread the fatiguing climb
of its steep paths have a chance of gaining its luminous summits"
-Karl Heinrich Marx Cube
Well, very interesting. I tend to doubt that we have a standard SK, though it's possible that someone recently converted to one (say, for example, once the YR got killed, if he's the YD). Anything's possible. That would also explain the two 1's in the list.
Apparently someone targetted a dead guy last night, judging from the reference to toilet-papering WoLG's house. Maybe there's a role that can copy the abilities of dead players? That could be dangerous.
Also, as I promised, Vote Bateleur. I have plenty of reasons to think he's scum, even more than yesterday, given his current state. I see no reason not to lynch him off.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Isn't it a little early to be advocating a lynch today? Everyone's pretty much confused. On top of that on a guy who can't even post in his own defense?
Also, I stumbled across some interesting posts while re-reading the thread today:
Quote from Puzzle »
Axelrod is spot on in his #255, imo. The SK typically goes for unprotected / low profile townies, while the Mafia goes for high-profile players, cops, etc... This is the way the kills usually split and we are exactly in this pattern, which means :
- a non-newbie SK, who should now begin to work for us, seeing the Mafia advance.
- JCS's kill was more likely to be from a random SK than for his ideas.
Here in post #258, Puzzle, the presumed cultist, praising Axel and piggybacking on the following from post #255:
Quote from Axelrod »
No disrespect intended to JCSuperstar, who played a fine game, but I seriously doubt that he was killed because of his "plan" to investigate Crippled Fist, or his support of LJustus. Strikes me as more of a "random" kill by SK on someone unlikely to get protected. I think you are probably wasting your time with that, bat.
This made good sense at the time. But now of course we know that Puzzle didn't want C_F investigated because Fist tells us he was a cult member at the time. Big deal, right?
Look at the last line. Bateleur, after doing a PBPA of JC's posts here in post #252, had brought some information back into light about why he might have been killed- namely that he wanted C_F investigated. This had gone virtually forgotten until Bateleur brought it up again. Bateleur being silenced today seems awfully coincidental after Puzzle was found dead. FoS: Crippled_Fist. Something's not adding up.
OK, maybe you noticed and maybe not, but I promised to vote for Bat yesterday because I thought he was scum. Me being consistent should hardly inspire you to be suspicious of me. Second of all, him not being able to post does nothing to convince me of his innocence or a need to keep him alive for a day. It is very probable that he is scum, and nothing he says is likely to change that. I'm not apologizing for my vote; it's there for a reason.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Well, eventful night. Will reread some stuff later to look for foreshadowing. In the meantime, c_p, there are other scum alive that we can probe today; bat will probably still be here tomorrow, and you can interrogate him then. We have 300 posts to get info, no need to lynch a mute person.
I dunno what to think about the cult. It would make sense for a cult that doesn't know each other to decult. I'm inclined to believe that Puzzle was the leader, due to him dropping the hint; I doubt a recruit would say something like that. There is still something odd what with JC and the 2nd night kill and such...
I had *something* happen last night that doesn't involve toilet paper, shadows, dreams, bright lights, girls, stds, sports, or any other night activity mentioned thus far. Has anyone else had something happen that they haven't said?
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Quote from Sir Blakely »
turbo...my god. you have reached Uber-Nerd-Dom (TM).
CP, I understand that you believe bat to be scummy, but you have to admit that voting for a player that isn't here to defend himself reeks of scumminess. Do you think it's likely for scum to silence one of their own in order to try to gain him some credibility? Also, Axelrod seems to know why bat is silenced. Do you think he's scummy as well.
I don't view your behavior as consistent. I think that a reasonable player would realize that you shouldn't vote for a player who can't defend himself.
You say that it is "very probable that he is scum". Please explain your logic. I know we have suspicion of bat, but you seem to let on that you know more than the rest of us.
Until we get an explanation, vote: carrion pigeons
I am not currently suspicious of CP, so I think that vote is misguided. Also, I was suspicious of Bat. and I'm not sure he should automatically get a free day just because he got silenced.
I'm not going to vote him right now, but if a better target fails to materialize, I won't promise that it will stay that way.
Still waiting for someone to claim the "shadow" block.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I don't think the vote is misguided. Sometimes a vote is used for something other than to lynch. It's a very powerful tool. Starting the day by voting for someone who can't defend himself makes me suspicious. Regardless of the motivations, it reeks of scum.
I think you may have the right attitude here. . . but you also have to be prepared to face any consequence fo your actions.
IF bat is lynched today. . .
AND bat is non-scum. . .
I think that CP would probably be facing some increased scrutiny tomorrow.
I think it is a wiser move, in any case, to leave a defenseless player alone for a day. We can always come back to him tomorrow.
Okay, I've got a few things to say. First of all, I will second Axel's call for the person who was shadow blocked to come out.
Quote from LJustus »
Crop Circles – Went through most of Day 1 with a “random vote” on fadeblue for being a mod. Of course, we all know who also voted fadeblue for being a mod on Day 1. (Hint: It was AgentDark.)
I really don't see how this incriminates me at all.
Quote from LJustus »
Then, he continued debating the setup of the game as 2-mafia after Crippled_Fist revealed his role and associated information.
If you could please point out where I said this, that would be dandy. If you are refering to when I said something about Puzzle not being in the "group" that killed Az, I have already explained that. However, you seem to be referring to day 1, so I will accept this as a misrepresentation.
Quote from LJustus »
Then, he casts the next to last (so as to not look scummy) vote on AgentDark shortly (relatively, of course) before the end of the day.
That is a very weak reason to suspect me.
Quote from LJustus »
Day 2, post 241: says it “may or may not be a good idea” for Axel/bat to reveal information they are hinting at about role similarities or groups. Admits that he is fishing for info while pointing out that Axel is fishing for info. Defends Turbo.
Guilty as charged.
Quote from LJUSTUS »
Places 5th vote (which ended up being vote #3) on WOLG after much squabbling back and forth. I can’t really fault him for this though. Also FOS’s RafaelK after votes by Crippled_Fist and silicon and much suspicion by Puzzle.
But more importantly, after he stated that DM didn't answer his question, which the way he initially described it, seemed unlikely.
carrion's vote is off base, regardless of whether he is scum or town, but what is telling is that it appears to be for the sake of consistancy, or at least he says. Personally, I think it seems more like a scum move to pay so much attention to trying to appear consistent. Fos carrion_pigeons
Come on, give me a little more credit than that. I'm not doing it to appear consistent, I'm doing it because I think he's scum. The fact that I'm consistent is just a nice bonus.
Eh. If a better target shows up, I'll be happy to change my vote. Until then, I'm going to maintain that he's our best lynch candidate, despite his inability to post.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
I had *something* happen last night that doesn't involve toilet paper, shadows, dreams, bright lights, girls, stds, sports, or any other night activity mentioned thus far. Has anyone else had something happen that they haven't said?
@Turbo: I didn't have anything happen to me last night. If you don't think it's going to put you or the town at risk, the information you have here would be helpful, I think.
@CP: This was just funny:
Quote from Carrion Pigeons »
OK, maybe you noticed and maybe not, but I promised to vote for Bat yesterday because I thought he was scum. Me being consistent should hardly inspire you to be suspicious of me. Second of all, him not being able to post does nothing to convince me of his innocence or a need to keep him alive for a day. It is very probable that he is scum, and nothing he says is likely to change that. I'm not apologizing for my vote; it's there for a reason.
I'm sure it wasn't intentionally worded that way, but of course nothing he says can change that-- he can't post!
You just might want to rethink the current position. I wouldn't have thought much of it if you didn't vote for bateleur immediately because you had said you would yesterday. A lot of things happened last night, and voting for a mute guy right off the bat (no pun intended) looks awfully scummy, promise or not.
I'll also third the motion for anyone shadow-blocked to come out.
Man, this thread is hard to re-read. Takes a long time and you just don't get that much out of it.
"New" list of "Top" suspects: bateleur (feeling worse about him from the re-read, don't care that much that he can't post); Turbo164 (hasn't done much at all--this new thing about "something" happening to him is interesting, but hard to give him credit for yet); and !Chucklez! who may be my best bet right now.
I'd do a PBPA or something, but I spent a long time pulling posts from Silicon, only to decide there wasn't enough to be worth posting (he's not "clear" but I can't say he's a top suspect).
Re: Rafaelk--unlikely to be a mafia role, very possible to be an "alternate" win of some kind. I was thinking about a role that had the "goal" of keeping the days short. Wouldn't that be amusing. Worst thing about him (which is what Silicon pointed out, which is one thing in Silicon's favor) is the way he answered the question "does the day end if his post limit is exceeded." I could go back and pull the posts, but it strongly sounded like his initial response was "I got no reply from DM" i.e. he didn't answer. Then, when people say they thought DM would have at least responded, Raf says, yes he responded, but he didn't answer the question. Hmmm.
Large group of "I don't knows" right now, including CropCircles, MatJoeMan, and Disrupt_Your_Hymn.
Also, seems LJustus is back on the hook as possible SK given that WOLG did the extra kills nights 1 and 2. He could have been "blocked" once, and his theoretical target protected (or immune) the other day. Not saying it's likely, just entirely possible at this point.
My vote is going on one of those in my first group of three. If the town doesn't want to lynch Bat because he can't defend himself, it's probably on Chucklez.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
That feels kind of out of left field. In all honesty I've barely been involved in this game.
So what exactly leads you to suspect me beyond overall lurkyness?
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"There is no royal road to science, and only those who do not dread the fatiguing climb
of its steep paths have a chance of gaining its luminous summits"
-Karl Heinrich Marx Cube
Out of left field is my specialty. I'm surprised you would characterize yourself as a lurker, considering you have more posts than lots of other people. But the barely involved part I see. That's not exactly a point in your favor, however.
I imagine I will do a more detailed post later. I'm kind of tired now.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I guess I'm just used to much more posting (on my part) over at the GL. I've found it hard to keep involved in games over here because I rarely come to Salvation anymore.
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"There is no royal road to science, and only those who do not dread the fatiguing climb
of its steep paths have a chance of gaining its luminous summits"
-Karl Heinrich Marx Cube
Well the 'something' sounded like a very bad thing; I would like to know if any people who are alive have had this (or anything weird) happen. If not, I'll assume I will be 'dying' soon, and will full claim what meager role info I have before too long
As for 'not doing much,' I've posted pretty much everything I've thought of, unless it was simply agreeing with someone (no need to threaten Raf's limit after all).
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Quote from Sir Blakely »
turbo...my god. you have reached Uber-Nerd-Dom (TM).
Okay, so we have 14 townies left and 4 mafia. There are other possibiliteis(SK could still exist, cult could still be at large, any number of other weird twists etc. etc.), so we'll say 4-5 scum left.
LJustus has been considered mostly clear of being mafia by AD's accusations, so for the moment, we'll take him off the list.
The reasons that Crippled Fist is mostly cleared have already been discussed, so we'll drop him too.
fadeblue, Kenji, Axelrod, and carrion pigeons all seem to share some kind of info and appear to mostly consider each other to be townies, so it's probably best to focus elsewhere to find scum.
This may be more controversal, but I consider RafaelK partially cleared. I just don't see the gain of him claiming his restriction when he did if he were scum, and if we believe CF's list, we have 17 townies vs. 5 mafia, which seems unbalanced in favor of the town, so it would make sense to have a few "extra death" roles to give the mafia a better chance.
There are 7 remaining players. Turbo164, silicon, bateleur, !Chucklez!, Disrupt_Your_Hymn, matjoeman, and myself. If the info that the above 4 have can clear any number of these, plus if any number of us can confirm ourselves, we could poteintially trap the remaining scum. If we manage to clear even just 1 of the remaining townies, we've got 4-5 scum, likely hiding in a 6 person group. So then we start pressuring the scummier of the suspects for role claims, and go from there.
The reasons I think we need to start this sooner rather then later are...
A) If any of fade, Kenji, Axel, or carrion die at night, we lose info that(from what I understand) could potentially clear townies.
B) If we wait until later in the day, we will lose this option unless we want to risk losing Rafeal.
C) At night, more townies die and the poteintial for catching false claims drops.
This may be premature and I may be assuming that the info that fade, Axel, Kenji, and CP have will help more then it really will. I also may have just labeled every last one of the scum as clear, but that would be extremely weird. This seems to me to be the most logical way to proceed. What do you guys think?
OK, I apologize for not breaking down my estimations below the whole percentage point level. I actually consider it more likely that both you and LJustus are scum than that the mafia have a list of roles, because I find it to be totally unbelievable. The only reason I put the (IMO 99%) there was because I have no actual proof.
Notice, please, that my conclusion was that you are probably scum. I acknowledge both the possibilities you mention, but I think that both of them are in the <1% range.
The only reason I decided to unvote you (sorry, fade, Unvote Bat) was because we're potentially about to get the SK, which is a bigger deal. I fully plan to vote for you again tomorrow.
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Speed lynching me will only keep the town from info, and we're getting to close to the deadline for RafaelK.
-[thread=14456]The [Untitled] Avatar and Sig shop![/thread] Avatar from:[thread=25376] [Epic Graphics][/thread]
Awards:
Elegant Mafia: The Joker, Mafia MVP
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
I'm ready to vote him. I also want to hear what CPE has to say, but I'm concerned how long we might have to wait. So I suppose I'll say the same as others which is that I'll try to refrain from running up the post count until he chimes in.
I don't think we need to worry too much, though. All it will take at this point is 2 very easy and obvious votes to end the day.
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20 * 17 =340.
If anyone else had pulled this, I'd FoS them, but I know you're telling the truth about the way you were blocked, so I know you're mostly cleared.
So, we already know what CPE's knowledge about me is. He hinted at it at the beginning of the day. All we are going to do is narrow down townies who have night abilities for the mafia. I objected to it at the beginning of the day. Of course, I object to it now. With CPE's persistence though, we have given the mafia more information that they can use to win the game.
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I agree, and theres no need to possibly waste another townie by killing RafaelK as well as me.Since you all want me dead, and I recognize that I have not played very well this game...Vote:WellOfLostGnomes Any advice to me about play style would be nice, as I'll try not to screw up in Random 2 as well. Note to all: I am the vig, a TOWNIE, not the sk, as you'll see at the close of the day.
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Awards:
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Not Voting- Kenji, Turbo164, Axelrod, CPE, Matjoeman, Puzzle, & Crippled Fist, silicon
With 17 enrolled it takes 9 to get someone expelled.
I'm going to go back and re-read all your posts to see if there's any way you are not scum here.
WoLG: you have managed to play exactly like a SK this game. If you're not, then you deserve some kind of SK look-a-like award, and, in addition, something very screwy is going on with the rest of the game.
Under the whole "looks like a duck" rationle:
Vote: WellofLostGnomes
If you ever plan on claiming, make sure you're consistent. The very first game of mafia I ever played, I lost because I claimed cop after speculating about the cop's role/actions in a way that implied I was not the cop. People sieze on that kind of thing, and it's hard to explain. You're guilty of claiming inconsistently too, which is why I now believe you to be scum.
Advice on how to use the vig role has already been given. Nobody thinks the vig is not a powerful role; it's an incredibly powerful role. You have probably more opportunity to screw up the game for the town than anyone. If you really are the vig, I may well eat my hat, just because you've really managed to hurt the town a lot. I mean, you've effectively given the scum a reprieve of a day and a half, with little to no worthwhile information in exchange.
That's it.
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[The Family]
Seconded.
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The point was that if he left night 1 he was scum. The night 2 info isn't implicating at all. We're back to Ljustus being mostly confirmed for the roleblocker thing, but now the mafia know something.
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || sk: LookingforReality (Copycat) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || survivor: matjoeman (Anarchist) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || town: kops (Anarchist) |||
Mafia stats
Waiting for confirmation, but someone who killed blind on night 1 and killed a townie analyst who hadn't seemed overly suspicious on night 2 and then claims vig, followed by the self-vote and "oh, you'll see" guilt trip = SK. Or someone doing the best SK impression I've ever seen, outside of Tom Cruise mafia over on mafiascum. Now there was a classic. I mentioned this one to a few of you before.
Day 1, everyone wakes up, 2 kills. One of them is described as a professional handgun shot, and is of the doctor.
During the day, someone is driven to claim. They claim Anderton, cop, from Minority Report.
The REAL Anderton, who was of course the real cop, counterclaimed. Down goes player A. He turns out to be Vincent. TOWN VIGILANTE. The real Anderton is promptly nightkilled.
Day 2, town wakes up with its doc, cop and vig dead because the vig killed the doc night 1 and then not only false-claimed but false-claimed the cop's role and got him to counterclaim. I don't think I'd ever seen someone more deserving of town LVP
That was a funny game, though. The mafia turned out to be all early small roles of Cruise, jealous of the later ones, and the SK turned out to be Brooke Shields (he claimed Katie Holmes during the game).
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WOLG (10)- LJustus, RafaelK, Crop Circles, bateleur, fadeblue, !Chucklez!, carrion pigeons, WOLG, Axelrod, Puzzle
Not Voting- Kenji, Turbo164, CPE, Matjoeman, Crippled Fist, silicon
Day 2 Lynch Scene
After much debate regarding the reliability of the Goth Kid’s information, suspicion falls on WellOfLostGnomes. “Even you said you could be the serial killer,” some cry. Other claim “even if he’s a townie he’s put two of our own in the hospital.” Eventually, even he decides that it is in the town’s best interests to leave. The mob of you walk him to the principal’s office, and turn him in for crimes he has committed. Principle Mage signs the expulsion papers somewhat regretfully.
No Longer Enrolled
WellOfLostGnomes- The Jock
It is now Night 3, send in your choices if you have them.
Forgot to say. Night 3 deadline is Thursday at the time of this edit. If everyone is done before then, the obviously, daylight will come earlier.
Good morning students, here are today’s announcements. The troubling news that seems to be plaguing our school seems to have continued.
First, I would like to remind students that while toilet papering a former students house is not strictly an expellable offense, we ask the unknown party who did so to WellOfLostGnome’s house to refrain from doing so again.
On a more serious note, we have apprehended the student who sent a bomb threat to the school this morning. On a tip, the police searched creampuffeater’s house and discovered a rough draft in his garbage can. He has been expelled.
I was saddened to hear from Puzzle’s parents this morning that he will no longer be coming here. The poor boy seems to have contracted some kind of wasting disease that has affected his, uh, unmentionable, uh area. Doctors assure us that with a lot of time and many, many antibiotics, he may recover and be able to reproduce, but it won’t be any time this school year.
Also, the students who depants’d bateleur this morning should be ashamed of themselves. He is taking the day off from school and will be back tomorrow morning.
No Longer Enrolled
Puzzle- The Young Republican
Creampuffeater- The Invisible Kid
Unable To Post
Bateleur
4 things to talk about. With early speculation.
1. Why lynch CPE? Probably to get rid of his ability.
2. Why was puzzle's name grey as opposed to blue or red? Was he on both sides sort of?
3. Why were there two deaths when we just killed the vig (I'm assuming that was true since he was town)?
4. Why can't bateleur post? Possibly something similar to what happened in random 2 (thats the only time I've seent the ability)?
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || sk: LookingforReality (Copycat) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || survivor: matjoeman (Anarchist) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || town: kops (Anarchist) |||
Mafia stats
CPE was almost definatly killed because of his ability. What's interesting to me is that it was apparantly WoLG who killed Az, so the mafia killed JC. I don't understand the reason's for either of the mafia's first 2 kills.
This new type of "death" is interesting. It could be a one shot type thing, or it could be the result of Puzzle's role, similair to RafealK's "death by boredom." Either way, Puzzle was apparantly neutral or at least not strickly town. It is possible that he was one of the other "1"s in Crippled's list, which would also explain his faith in CF.
Now here's the question. Do we believe that Puzzle was the singular win condition "1," or the alternate win condition "1?" If he were a SK, we should have seen 3 deaths a night. If he were a cult leader, then a group of others should have died, or they would be released and able to confirm this. However, it is also very possible he was a recruit. Any way you slice it, WoLG's townieness seems to support a cult in this game, excepting, of course, the possibility of a skilled doc.
For my final piece of speculation on Puzzle, I think that it is possible that Puzzle's role had something to do with killing RafaelK. It would explain his attack of him, and then the "miscalculation" near the end there. That easily could have been a cunning plan (TM) to get him killed. Or to find out if he was lying. I don't think this scenario is particularly likely, but I'm trying to keep an open mind.
Apparantly, someone didn't want bateleur to keep talking. I would assume this is a mafia ability. But wait...bateleur was not one of the dudes with info, was he? Wouldn't it make sense for a mafia silencer to target fade, Kenji, C_P, or Axel? (Those were the ones who claimed they could potentially clear townies, iirc. Correct if I'm wrong.) So maybe they silenced bateleur to make him look like a townie. Well, at this point we're in WIFOM up to our heads, so I don't think we can safely assume anything based on his silencing.
Well, after stumbling through the thread looking for info in support of the above, I came across this beauty.
First of all, it's worth noting that with the potential for a cult much more open, LJustus is much less cleared.
Second, we now know that LJustus left his house night 2. If we're believing him, that means he did not use his ability night 1, and then did on night 2. Exactly what kind of (non-vig) ability would you not want to use on night 1? I think there is a possibility that he was lying about not using an ability night 1, to make for an easier false claim later. Potential cult leader? I think so. Minor Fos LJustus
[The Family]
It's matjoeman who claimed to have been distracted by pretty girls, right? Same happened to me last night, so I'll confirm that we have someone who uses pretty girls to distract people.
Ah, Puzzle Puzzle Puzzle. No wonder he was so much after me because of speculating about a cult or second scum group. So obviously scummy, really- how many times did people (people other than me, even) say something like they'd vote him or FOS him except he was so obviously not a scum? Gave it off in waves. So I wonder... do we have a 2nd (luckier) vig, or do we have an SK who either didn't kill or has been blocked and/or struck protection? Whichever side you're on and however your rolename has been phrased, congratulations to the School Bike/School **** for removing Puzzle for us.
And FOS Crippled_Fist for being defended by Puzzle. I doubt Puzzle was planning on being killed. Leader of Puzzle's cult or whatever the hell group he was?
I'm... I dunno, stunned by silencing bateleur. Silencing is weird. In theoy, if used by a townie, you wouldn't want to silence a townie but also silencing your mafia suspect is bad because the town's unlikely to bandwagon someone to death who can't defend themselves unless there's an inspection or something. If it's a mafia ability, if bat is town they just silenced a guy who had a lot of suspicion and might have otherwise been bandwagonned today and if bat is mafia they just silenced one of their own and raised his profile (this choice makes vaguely more sense than the others, mind you, if they were that worried for bateleur being bandwagonned today). However, silencing is exceptionally strong for the mafia (they get to nullify votes) and if the mafia have it why haven't they been using it?
Seriously, this is crazy. Way too much is happening. Did Crippled_Fist just admit to being a cultist. But he also said he didn't know who the other ones were? That's probably worthy of a vote right there. That's not how Cults usually work, if I know anything about Cults (which I may not).
I think silencing Bat. was probably a bad idea also.
We are definitely missing some kills. The mafia are "clearly" the ones doing the "framing." WoLG claimed the "Jock" kills on Chamber and Azreal. And now, for the first time we have an STD death. Where did that come from? Could be a one-shot. Could be a SK who has missed/declined kills for the first 2 nights?
Still processing....
Well, assuming Puzzle wasn't lying about being blocked night 2, the highest number of people other Puzzle could have recruited besides CF is 1, if it went through last night... but then again if it went through, it doesn't seem like it would have done much. As for CF not knowing other members, according to the posts that... I think CC made during random 1 (sorry if I got that wrong, I'm too tired to look it up right now), it's possible.
I have some thoughts about why bat, in particular, would have been silenced today, but I am going to look over the first two days to see if I am missing anything. I don't want to post something prematurely which may be inaccurate, so please bear with me.
Also, just as a reference:
There's the list, so we don't all have to go back through the thread to find it like I just did.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
:dance::badger::birthday::badger::dance:
Okay, maybe I'm getting ahead of myself here, but that seems pretty solid.The problem, of course, is that Puzz was supposedly blocked night 2(iirc) which means will only have another cultist confirm this if his recruit went through last night.
I assure you, you don't. As I pointed out in Random 1, you can go look at Simpsons mafia on Scum for a two beautiful variantions on the standard cult. In one of them, the members did not communicate at night at all, and in the other, the members retained their win condition and would be unrecruited at the leaders death(iirc). There is no distinct way that a cult has to operate. It's probably the scum group with the most room for variation. Furthermore, our mod was part of the fiasco that broke Random 1, so I would think that he would have taken proper precautions to avoid an encore preformance. Cutting the cult's communication could account for that precaution.
I would like to remind everyone to be mindful of Raf's "limited attention span." That doesn't mean lurkers should continue lurking. If you have something to say, by all means, post it. But avoid posts that say nothing but "Yay we got the cult" or "OMFG pwn3d."
EWP: This post was longer, but I got sarnath'd like mad.
[The Family]
He was probably blocked night 2 so didn't recruit anyone else. And if he recruited night 3, but died, it's possible that DM wouldn't have even told the recruit what happened. So all that is at least consistent. On the other hand, CF could still be "Cult." We only have his word for it that he reverted. That seems less likely, but still possible.
LJustus, I wouldn't spend too much time thinking about why Bat. was silenced. It's probably not what you are thinking. Oooo. I'm being cryptic.
Anyone going to claim being "blocked" by a Shadow last night?
This seems a little weird, because one would think this would be the recruiting mechanism, not something the cult leader would have happen to him. OTOH, of course, this could be his "Cunning Plan" to have let his members know who he is.
It looks like from his post he was "blocked" night 2, checking to see if anyone else had been "blocked" night 1.
Where there's this:
Is LJustus a recruit, too? Is it possible that we have a different cult leader out there, and C_F is lying about returning to normal townie status? Could be. We very well could have just killed a cultist, and not the leader. Is C_F the leader?
I'm with Axelrod on this "Argh! Too much input!"
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
2. I was going over the thread again, and some things struck me as odd:
Crop Circles – Went through most of Day 1 with a “random vote” on fadeblue for being a mod. Of course, we all know who also voted fadeblue for being a mod on Day 1. (Hint: It was AgentDark.) Then, he continued debating the setup of the game as 2-mafia after Crippled_Fist revealed his role and associated information. Then, he casts the next to last (so as to not look scummy) vote on AgentDark shortly (relatively, of course) before the end of the day.
Day 2, post 241: says it “may or may not be a good idea” for Axel/bat to reveal information they are hinting at about role similarities or groups. Admits that he is fishing for info while pointing out that Axel is fishing for info. Defends Turbo.
Places 5th vote (which ended up being vote #3) on WOLG after much squabbling back and forth. I can’t really fault him for this though. Also FOS’s RafaelK after votes by Crippled_Fist and silicon and much suspicion by Puzzle.
--- I don't know what to make of this, but I have a feeling of scumminess. I think it is the long-standing initial vote on fade and the "next to last vote" on AD on Day 1 that drew my attention.
Minor FoS: CropCircles
Sounds like maybe the Young Democrat could be the SK. This has to be the case if the Democrat is present and we believe CF's numbers. (Also, STD is the kill method, after all.) </speculation>
As for CF, I have had some experiance with Cults, and I have never encountered one that disbanded when the leader died. I won't rule it out though, as someone said it is a highly flexible group. I'll have my eye on you.
Did we have someone unable to post on other days? This certainly seems a little convienant for Bat. as he was recieving pressure yesterday, and now suddenly can't post. I think that this post restrictor may be scum trying to help Bat. out.
I'll the third the sentiment that we are in a bit of an info overload. I'm going to have to re-read this thread soon.
of its steep paths have a chance of gaining its luminous summits"
-Karl Heinrich Marx
Cube
Apparently someone targetted a dead guy last night, judging from the reference to toilet-papering WoLG's house. Maybe there's a role that can copy the abilities of dead players? That could be dangerous.
Also, as I promised, Vote Bateleur. I have plenty of reasons to think he's scum, even more than yesterday, given his current state. I see no reason not to lynch him off.
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Isn't it a little early to be advocating a lynch today? Everyone's pretty much confused. On top of that on a guy who can't even post in his own defense?
Also, I stumbled across some interesting posts while re-reading the thread today:
Here in post #258, Puzzle, the presumed cultist, praising Axel and piggybacking on the following from post #255:
This made good sense at the time. But now of course we know that Puzzle didn't want C_F investigated because Fist tells us he was a cult member at the time. Big deal, right?
Look at the last line. Bateleur, after doing a PBPA of JC's posts here in post #252, had brought some information back into light about why he might have been killed- namely that he wanted C_F investigated. This had gone virtually forgotten until Bateleur brought it up again. Bateleur being silenced today seems awfully coincidental after Puzzle was found dead. FoS: Crippled_Fist. Something's not adding up.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
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Well, eventful night. Will reread some stuff later to look for foreshadowing. In the meantime, c_p, there are other scum alive that we can probe today; bat will probably still be here tomorrow, and you can interrogate him then. We have 300 posts to get info, no need to lynch a mute person.
I dunno what to think about the cult. It would make sense for a cult that doesn't know each other to decult. I'm inclined to believe that Puzzle was the leader, due to him dropping the hint; I doubt a recruit would say something like that. There is still something odd what with JC and the 2nd night kill and such...
I had *something* happen last night that doesn't involve toilet paper, shadows, dreams, bright lights, girls, stds, sports, or any other night activity mentioned thus far. Has anyone else had something happen that they haven't said?
I don't view your behavior as consistent. I think that a reasonable player would realize that you shouldn't vote for a player who can't defend himself.
You say that it is "very probable that he is scum". Please explain your logic. I know we have suspicion of bat, but you seem to let on that you know more than the rest of us.
Until we get an explanation, vote: carrion pigeons
I'm not going to vote him right now, but if a better target fails to materialize, I won't promise that it will stay that way.
Still waiting for someone to claim the "shadow" block.
I think you may have the right attitude here. . . but you also have to be prepared to face any consequence fo your actions.
IF bat is lynched today. . .
AND bat is non-scum. . .
I think that CP would probably be facing some increased scrutiny tomorrow.
I think it is a wiser move, in any case, to leave a defenseless player alone for a day. We can always come back to him tomorrow.
I really don't see how this incriminates me at all.
If you could please point out where I said this, that would be dandy. If you are refering to when I said something about Puzzle not being in the "group" that killed Az, I have already explained that. However, you seem to be referring to day 1, so I will accept this as a misrepresentation.
That is a very weak reason to suspect me.
Guilty as charged.
But more importantly, after he stated that DM didn't answer his question, which the way he initially described it, seemed unlikely.
carrion's vote is off base, regardless of whether he is scum or town, but what is telling is that it appears to be for the sake of consistancy, or at least he says. Personally, I think it seems more like a scum move to pay so much attention to trying to appear consistent. Fos carrion_pigeons
[The Family]
Eh. If a better target shows up, I'll be happy to change my vote. Until then, I'm going to maintain that he's our best lynch candidate, despite his inability to post.
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@Turbo: I didn't have anything happen to me last night. If you don't think it's going to put you or the town at risk, the information you have here would be helpful, I think.
@CP: This was just funny:
I'm sure it wasn't intentionally worded that way, but of course nothing he says can change that-- he can't post!
You just might want to rethink the current position. I wouldn't have thought much of it if you didn't vote for bateleur immediately because you had said you would yesterday. A lot of things happened last night, and voting for a mute guy right off the bat (no pun intended) looks awfully scummy, promise or not.
I'll also third the motion for anyone shadow-blocked to come out.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
"New" list of "Top" suspects: bateleur (feeling worse about him from the re-read, don't care that much that he can't post); Turbo164 (hasn't done much at all--this new thing about "something" happening to him is interesting, but hard to give him credit for yet); and !Chucklez! who may be my best bet right now.
I'd do a PBPA or something, but I spent a long time pulling posts from Silicon, only to decide there wasn't enough to be worth posting (he's not "clear" but I can't say he's a top suspect).
Re: Rafaelk--unlikely to be a mafia role, very possible to be an "alternate" win of some kind. I was thinking about a role that had the "goal" of keeping the days short. Wouldn't that be amusing. Worst thing about him (which is what Silicon pointed out, which is one thing in Silicon's favor) is the way he answered the question "does the day end if his post limit is exceeded." I could go back and pull the posts, but it strongly sounded like his initial response was "I got no reply from DM" i.e. he didn't answer. Then, when people say they thought DM would have at least responded, Raf says, yes he responded, but he didn't answer the question. Hmmm.
Large group of "I don't knows" right now, including CropCircles, MatJoeMan, and Disrupt_Your_Hymn.
Also, seems LJustus is back on the hook as possible SK given that WOLG did the extra kills nights 1 and 2. He could have been "blocked" once, and his theoretical target protected (or immune) the other day. Not saying it's likely, just entirely possible at this point.
My vote is going on one of those in my first group of three. If the town doesn't want to lynch Bat because he can't defend himself, it's probably on Chucklez.
So what exactly leads you to suspect me beyond overall lurkyness?
of its steep paths have a chance of gaining its luminous summits"
-Karl Heinrich Marx
Cube
I imagine I will do a more detailed post later. I'm kind of tired now.
of its steep paths have a chance of gaining its luminous summits"
-Karl Heinrich Marx
Cube
As for 'not doing much,' I've posted pretty much everything I've thought of, unless it was simply agreeing with someone (no need to threaten Raf's limit after all).
LJustus has been considered mostly clear of being mafia by AD's accusations, so for the moment, we'll take him off the list.
The reasons that Crippled Fist is mostly cleared have already been discussed, so we'll drop him too.
fadeblue, Kenji, Axelrod, and carrion pigeons all seem to share some kind of info and appear to mostly consider each other to be townies, so it's probably best to focus elsewhere to find scum.
This may be more controversal, but I consider RafaelK partially cleared. I just don't see the gain of him claiming his restriction when he did if he were scum, and if we believe CF's list, we have 17 townies vs. 5 mafia, which seems unbalanced in favor of the town, so it would make sense to have a few "extra death" roles to give the mafia a better chance.
There are 7 remaining players. Turbo164, silicon, bateleur, !Chucklez!, Disrupt_Your_Hymn, matjoeman, and myself. If the info that the above 4 have can clear any number of these, plus if any number of us can confirm ourselves, we could poteintially trap the remaining scum. If we manage to clear even just 1 of the remaining townies, we've got 4-5 scum, likely hiding in a 6 person group. So then we start pressuring the scummier of the suspects for role claims, and go from there.
The reasons I think we need to start this sooner rather then later are...
A) If any of fade, Kenji, Axel, or carrion die at night, we lose info that(from what I understand) could potentially clear townies.
B) If we wait until later in the day, we will lose this option unless we want to risk losing Rafeal.
C) At night, more townies die and the poteintial for catching false claims drops.
This may be premature and I may be assuming that the info that fade, Axel, Kenji, and CP have will help more then it really will. I also may have just labeled every last one of the scum as clear, but that would be extremely weird. This seems to me to be the most logical way to proceed. What do you guys think?
[The Family]