even with random lynchings(and the town usually does much better than that), at least 3 baddies should be dead by day 5. also, as long as the sk is alive the town is not dead, so we will live for quite a while. the "do or die" study came from when we thought there were two mafia.
so far we're doing real well. 2 mafia for 4 townies, even with an SK. conversely, we're out 2 inspectors and azrael, so maybe we're only kinda well off.
it looks like merry and pippin won't be in this game, so claiming fellowship is a no-no. the presence of multiple riders, however, suggests a bond (not mason). perhaps theoden's ability relates to them?
Looking back over some more stuff... Well, it seems like FOS time again. 8^)
I made pretty clear yesterday that I didn't ever regard armlx as cleared of suspicion. Now I notice from his logs that there was a substantial period of time where he could have voted for Fayul but didn't. FOS armlx
And then we've got titus saying "the case against armlx is weaker than the one against worthawholebean, so i wouldn't advise going after him next". That's combined with the fact that titus himself is not only lurking but didn't vote at all, which is a sneaky way to stay off the radar as someone who held back Fayul's lynch. FOS: titus
As for aurorasparrow, not only is his defence feeble, he's now trying to talk about town roles when there's really no need. And scanning back through old posts, I notice a very sly comment he makes where he claims to have done a PBPA on rhinocero which was "lost by his computer", but was allegedly suspicious. He then uses this as an excuse to vote rhinocero. And finally:
Quote from armlx »
You know, the last Aurorasparrow wagon was for the exact same kind of comments and we were wrong. I am going to hold my vote and ask others to do the same. He is very pro-discussion and a benefit to the town.
Is anyone else seeing patterns ? I think it's time to upgrade my FOS:
UnFOS: aurorasparrow Vote: aurorasparrow
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Hmmm. Something tells me that there are probably a number of vanilla roles in the this game. I wonder if there was more than one gift giver (so they can be more than night-kill fodder) for the rest of the game. With 2 cops down we're going to be hard-pressed to find scum unless everybody starts posting. We have a lot of people left and only 4-5 people are actively posting.
By the way....
/me does the happy dance for finally being right in a lynch vote!
Aurora why are you so interested about speculating about people that may or may not be in the game and there abilities? you seem to be wanting people to prove you wrong or at least help make a list of what to look for. I'm not going to vote you yet because I'm a little paranoid after shaman mafia and trusting puzzle so willingly, so I may be ovverreacting to this but along with other actions that seem to be in the interest of the mafia, and other scum like action fos: aurora
Aurora why are you so interested about speculating about people that may or may not be in the game and there abilities? you seem to be wanting people to prove you wrong or at least help make a list of what to look for. I'm not going to vote you yet because I'm a little paranoid after shaman mafia and trusting puzzle so willingly, so I may be ovverreacting to this but along with other actions that seem to be in the interest of the mafia, and other scum like action fos: aurora
Aurora really doesn't seem that suspicious to me today. Yesterday, he was bit overagressive. Still, the only reason I found him suspicious was because a dearth of oher suspects, as I've said before. Today, he's done some good analysis and defense. I'm convinced he's town.
I'm somewhat suspicious of all the people bandwagoning on aurora. Most of them are FOSes, but there's probably some mafia there or in the votes.
Quote from SOS »
Armlx is again casting suspicion on me for no particular reason (a "feeling")
Truly, if anything, try and analyse instead of being ridiculous.
FOS: Armlx
I would vote for you, but that would make aurorasparrow feel lonely, I guess. I'd be happy to lynch either of you, because you just SCREAM scum to me.
:confused3: Casting votes on feelings sometimes is a large part of mafia sometimes, from what I've seen. You are acting a bit scummy by being so defensive, but again, not very much so.
rhinocero> Interesting comments there, but could you maybe provide actual arguments, preferably referencing the arguments put forward by other posters ? Otherwise, whilst you make your opinion clear, it's far from obvious why anyone else should care what you think ! :grin2:
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[QUOTE=bateleur]And then we've got titus saying "the case against armlx is weaker than the one against worthawholebean, so i wouldn't advise going after him next". That's combined with the fact that titus himself is not only lurking but didn't vote at all, which is a sneaky way to stay off the radar as someone who held back Fayul's lynch. FOS: titus [/QUOTE]
sorry, i have been lurking. i've had little-to-no-time lately, seeing as finals are this week, i have had football and lifting every day for the past two weeks, general stress fest. i havn't been getting home until 8 every weekday for the past week.
anyways, the reason i didn't vote for fayul is because the day ended before i saw the computer again. i mean, the last time i saw it, the case against wawb had stalled, and people were just FOSing fayul. she had been lynched by the time i saw the thread again (oops)
i also didn't suggest going agter armlx because, at the time, he hadn't done anything suspicious. in retrosuspect, his unwillingness to vote for fayul was suspicious, but that was after my comment.
yes, i also find aurasparrow suspicious, but nothing voteworthy. while i'm not as convinced as, say, rhinocero here, i can't definitively say that he is scum. he has been overaggressive and he has also pushed for townies to reveal their roles, which is, now that i think about, fairly voteworthy at this stage in the game.
Ok, I'm sick of this BS everyone is chasing me with.
I am a vannila rider. My "Rant at Axelrod" was a subliminal hint. The first letter of every sentance spells out RIDER. I didn't vote for Fayul because by the time I got around to it she was already lynched.
Also, Sparrow, how did you know there were multiple Riders? Only 1 Rider died or claimed I belive. There is no connection from my role. Just like a basic townie :(.
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Albus Dumbledore, Harry Potter and the Sorceror's Stone
To the well organized mind, death is but the next great adventure.
I notice a very sly comment he makes where he claims to have done a PBPA on rhinocero which was "lost by his computer", but was allegedly suspicious.
how does this make me more suspicious? surely you dont think people would follow me on that vote.
Enigma: I'm not pushing for anyone to claim. Enigma came out on his own. If I was a mafia speculator, I'd discuss it between my mafia buddies instead of out in the open. Im just posting my thoughts.
I'm going to santa cruz for my college orientation so I wont be online for the rest of today or tomorrow. Try not to lynch me until then so I can claim.
As for armlx - the stealth claim is indeed there, but that's hardly very convincing considering the timing. Also ISTR stealth claims being regarded as rather weak strategy in mafia circles ? I'd be voting for you right now on the strength of that... except that I'm not prepared to take my vote off your accomplice aurorasparrow.
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@Armlx:That was really odd of you to claim, it's not like anyone was ready to lynch you or anything. As far as I can tell you have no votes on you so that seems a very knee jerk reaction of you, the only people focusing on you were SOS and Bateluer and both gave you an fos. Just a little bit of an overreaction and giving yourself "reason" to claim= fos: Armlx
And now I'm going to attempt a PBPA of aurora:
Quote from aurorasparrow »
Double mafia makes sense.. the only other thing I can think of is a misguided vigilante, but I can't think of any vigilante who would kill in the above manners (closest is perhaps Boromir killing Aragorn). I wonder what powers "Future King" bestows..
Hrm. I can't think of why some of Aragorn's body would be missing. The orcs don't eat humans, do they?
Well, assuming double mafia.. theres probably a larger than normal amount of mafia, and thus not as many town roles outside of the fellowship as we'd expect. I'd also expect the town to have powers since we'll be dying extremely fast, but Sam apparently had none so maybe not. I'd at least expect him to have some sort of "save Frodo" ability.
-Gandalf - healer? jack of all trades?
-Gimli - no idea
-Legolas - vig?
-Aragorn (Dead)
-Frodo - hard to kill?
-Samwise (dead) -Merry and Pippin (mason group?)
-Boromir - no idea
Faramir? Theoden? Galadriel? Liv Tyler? Agent Smith?
this game setup is interesting.. the town can prove their roleclaims easily, but if they do they'll get killed too fast to lynch people and win. Then the two mafia + gollum would go after each other. Cool way to balance a name-specific mafia.
Perhaps Samwise was killed by the cave troll? though I guess cave troll isn't aligned to anyone.. nor is balrog.
Gollum's probably the SK with the win condition: Kill Frodo or whomever has the ring.
Speaking of which, what happens if frodo dies? does the killer get the ring? does gollum just become an SK?
6-7 mafia seems about right. Probably 6.
Basic speculation on mafia setup, and some town roles, notthing suspicious
Quote from aurorasparrow »
And here I was thinking some action aws actually going to start..
I dont think it'll matter much if axelrod uses the movies or books. Tom Bombadil is a small neutral character so whatever.. arwen might be a minor doc, but that would be the only difference.
We shouldn't auto-assume two mafia. It could be one mafia with two kills, though both townie kills were done with blades which the two most evil characters don't use. Maybe witch-king gets an extra kill; otherwise I think it's two mafia. Anyone care to clear this up?
Actually, I wonder.. if there are two mafia, what color does Axelrod put for Sauron's mafia when they die? Also red? might we go through the game unsure of whether there is one mafia or two? Because bug was listed as mafia instead of saruman mafia.
In defense of dual mafia, "evil" is a broad term that could apply to two different groups.
And finally, theres always the possibility that the mafia get a one-shot extra kill and used it last night to maximize the effect and confuse the hell out of the townies.
Actually, this is very plausible, since with powered up townies (aint nobody gonna make gimli a vanilla townie) the mafia should get abilities too, and dual mafia + SK makes the mafia very fragile as well, and if the game gets down to the two mafia it would be pretty lame since nobody would change their mind. Dual mafia actually gives the mafia a disadvantage because of friendly fire and such.
Do something suspicous, guys. Id hate to lynch a lurker.
More speculation on mafia setup. But also adds in a call for action, and wants a target to lynch, somewhat suspicious to be asking for a lynch option so quickly
Quote from aurorasparrow »
inadvertantly?
nobody knows who gollum is, and nobody will soon because we have a dead inspector. even if we somehow knew everyones' roles, I dont think it'd work because I don't see bilbo as being a character. He's not interesting enough to make a role out of.
Points out my speculation about bilbo doesn't matter, and discredits it. Nothing suspicious
Quote from aurorasparrow »
your math is off. w mafia + 1 SK + 1 lynch = 4 kills a day.
Another thing, since double mafia is only a theory; does anything happen if the mafia outnumber the townies? double seems less and less likely. Still very valid though.
SOS: voting no lynch is wrong, but because its your first game its understandable. whatever, speculation wont help us and it will be clearer tomorrow, so lets drop it for now. Except its all we have to talk about.
who hasn't posted yet?
Points out number of kills per day with double mafia theory. Leans away form double mafia a little bit. Explains the disadvantages of no lynches to SOS. And looks for lurkers again, possibly after a quick lynch still? slightly scummy because unless there is cop info quick lynches generally favor mafia but lessening the amount of information that gets out for the town.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
Does everyone forget the far greater possibility that there was a mafia with a one-shot kill ability? Rather than getting all string-theory about this lets drop it until tomorrow, because this isn't really getting anywhere.
LJUstus: explain.
one thing we can do: claim if you're in the fellowship or not. No, don't do it now. Just.. it may be a relevant tactic later.
ugh didn't mean to do that, but continuing with the analysis
points out another mafia setup/ability possibility. Suggests a fellowship claim, definetly a very mafia-esque move since that would reveal possible power roles and give the mafia a clear shot at many town players. extremly scummy
Quote from aurorasparrow »
1 out of 9? and he only gets to kill once a night? it reduces it by half, I guess, so he gets maybe a 50% chance of winning. But his winning doesn't mean we all lose, and Frodo still has protection against Gollum (I'd think).
On the other hand, he WOULD only target fellowship from then on, and thus hurt the town only as opposed to any mafia. I hadn;t thought of that.
talks about the possible alternate wincondition for gollum, withdraws his plan for fellowship claim
Quote from aurorasparrow »
Oh. Right. Maybe it's a usable strategy after Frodo or Gollum is dead, then.
suggests the plan can be used after gollum or frodo are dead, to circumvent a possible gollum alternate win, slightly odd thats hes holding to such a town hazardous plan
Quote from aurorasparrow »
My games have always continued the game if somebody got their alternate win, and I'm pretty sure that was the case in Marvel Superheroes as well (with Dr Doom). Did hvir ever say that World dom would end if Azrael won?
I don't think Deadly budah's conjecture was that far off from what a lot of us were thinking.
am I correct in hearing Budah read the Silmarillion as well? I couldn't get even halfway through it <_<
I want to speculate more on the ring.
First: there is nothing that says the mafia's win condition is NOT to get the ring. But it would be shockingly like Shaman mafia, and there would be problems if Frodo was lynched since it appears exclusively Hobbits can bear the ring without being corrupted. If all hobbits were dead, a big problem would ensue. There would also be three groups gunning for one person. =\ Thus I think the ring is not central to the game, except maybe for Gollum.
Second: Can the bearer be corrupted? What happens if they are?
Third: What if a vig kills Frodo?
Fourth: If Gollum is after the ring, hes not an SK. He's a one-man mafia.
This whole confusion about two-mafia-versus-one is screwing all of our postulation up.
looks for more speculation on the ring, and asks valid questions about what would happen if it was in the game, not really scummy
Quote from aurorasparrow »
I meant that its far more likely theres a one-shot kill mafia than a misfiring vig. The deaths don't befit any vigilantes, and for the most part we know as townies not to kill blindly.
It also wouldn't make sense for me to try to misdirect you guys on this if I were mafia; the next day, I'd be proven wrong, and misleading the town now would have gotten me nowhere except in the slightly-more-suspicious category.
points out that a vig(me) could have misfired and would make more sense thatn a one shot extra mafia kill, not suspicious
Quote from aurorasparrow »
Future: If you see someone hidden claim, don't point it out. It helps nobody.
following is an analysis that doesn't go very far.
lets break it down:
Logic dictates at least 1 mafia.
1 mafia kill
A dead mafia that has been strangled and gnawed signifies Gollum, who aesthetically must be a neutral killer.
1 mafia kill
1 neutral kill
The remaining kills are done by a warrior of ridiculous strength and a warrior who removes body parts. These types of kills do not match any good character in LOTR.
In addition, the chances of this role being given to a townie bold enough to kill blindly but cautious enough not to claim after 2 pages of calling out is unlikely indeed.
There is no other powerful neutral character besides the Balrog, so I think we can say the third kill was not neutral-based.
Now we have the two-mafia possibility, driven by a lack of other options and the fact that saruman and sauron were not allied.
Pros: Explains double kill, makes sense flavorwise
Cons: Balance/situational problems, extremely vulnerable town.
The only remaining option is that the Witch-King gets an additional kill once per game he used.
Pros: Explains double kill without the wierdness of double mafia
Cons: Not as flavorful.
no claims until tomorrow. If there are indeed two mafia and an SK, any claim is suicidal. armlx hypothesized 2 mafia in the first post, unlikely that one would try to mislead in the first post.
swinkee: there is NOT two mafia and a vig who shot last night. Gollum certainly exists, and there were only 3 kills.
looks at who could have made the kills, tells peopel not to point out hidden claims, says don't claim after suggesting the fellwoship claim idea, somewhat contradictory of himself, so somewhat scummy
Quote from aurorasparrow »
rarely can mafia be found through facts. feelings are all we have.
that said, Enigma's coming out almost completely eliminates any possibility of two mafia, as the double kill was the only thing leading us down that path. Now we know there is
1 mafia - Saruman and Sauron never fought anyways, right?
1 SK, Gollum - too much evidence NOT to accept.
1 vig, probably Boromir due to rogue-ness and strength - claimed
The chance that enigma is lying is very small for one reason:
He said he beheaded someone. So if anyone is beheaded, we will lynch him. It doesn't make sense to claim responsibility for this unless he controlled the kills and killing was not part of his win condition, especially since he could hide with no consequence.
If the mafia was trying to falseclaim theyd choose someone more experienced than Enigma. Falseclaiming vig is hard to do, especially since if theres a real vig the faker dies.
vote Fayul for being #3 on the wagon.
supports my claim because of the hardness of false claiming it, determines the setup for the mafia, votes fayul for being #3 on me, and therefore scummy because #3 is where the mafia attempts to snowball the bandwagon. not scummy, one of the biggest reasons he likely isn't mafia, unless it was to draw suspicion from himself when it wouldnt hurt fayul.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
I disagree with him claiming. If he claimed vig and was lying, our vig will kill him tonight. No need to force a townie (in my mind) completely out in the open, though t could hardly be anyone but Boromir.
basic speculation
Quote from aurorasparrow »
ah. true.. hadn't thought of that. I think boromir fits better though.
enigma: never kill unless we tell you to.
filler
Quote from aurorasparrow »
Whats the difference between lynching him today or tomorrow if he's mafia? which I will bet my own neck on that hes not.
see below.
we're not in world dom anymore, as someone has already stated; votes don't carry as much weight as we're treating them with.
FOS Aurorasparrow.
play around with the kills? explain.
So you're already assuming he's mafia? I haven't heard a really solid argument against him yet.
yeah.
don't blindly trust azrael, guys. you're not going to find a counterclaim because my reasoning is correct.
analyses AZ, nothing suspicious
Quote from aurorasparrow »
actually, I was quoting his reply and didn't take out his FOS of me. but yeah..
unFOS Aurorasparrow, FOS Azrael
fixes his fos
Quote from aurorasparrow »
You realize how badly it would go for him if he was trying to off you that way and succeeded? It was a joke.
fillerish
Quote from aurorasparrow »
Well, someone said Axel said thered be vanilla roles in the game (note the plural) and we already have Sam, so wouldnt Merry and Pippin make sense? Theres also not that many good people in LOTR outside the fellowship with a very unique or deep personality; can you name more than four?
I firmly believe in the entire fellowship existing. It IS the council of elrond.
speculation about vanilla roles
Quote from aurorasparrow »
i guess theres no point on speculating if the entire fellowship is here or not, because there is no limit to mafia claiming not-fellowship. That seriously wasn't an attempt to draw suspicion to any of you. Also,
Don't say if you're non-fellowship, because that lowers Gollum's targets and we don't gain any useful information from it.
again contradicts his original idea of fellowship claim
Quote from aurorasparrow »
Gollum can't have reasonably have an "alternate" win condition, because a regular SK condition is to kill everyone which is much harder that killing whomever has the ring. And I really can't think of a reason why Gollum wouldn't exist; theres more than plenty of evidence for and none against.
armlx: I don't understand?
filler
Quote from aurorasparrow »
I don't understand that either. Why would he post something meant to be incomprehensible?
fishes for info
Quote from aurorasparrow »
My role fits quite well.
filler
Quote from aurorasparrow »
A problem that is slowing this game is the high number of newer players who can't be expected not to make mistakes, post infrequently or make mistakes.
Since I can't think of anything else to talk about, why do I look suspicious to some of you?
a bit more filler
Quote from aurorasparrow »
okay, now we once again have nothing to talk about.. all this did was cement the probability that gollum is an sk and goes after frodo, and give us more validity in speculation.
uh.. FOS Pibbly for not posting as often as normal.
Fos pibbly after he gives a reason, seems a little itchy for action
Quote from aurorasparrow »
I think aday time limit is in order.
suggests a time limit for the day, extremly mafia-esque for reasons already stated. Larger reason he seems to be mafia
Quote from aurorasparrow »
I know its not good for the town. I just thought that maybe having a time limit might cause people to, you know, post stuff with ACTUAL CONTENT.
see? my proposition kinda got the game moving a bit. at least theres something to talk about now.
defends his proposition
Quote from aurorasparrow »
he's referring to shaman mafia.
Discounting possibilities early on is a bad idea, as is assuming (like MANY people did) that what appears to be true early on really is. I've never been in a double mafia game, and I wasn't sold on it for a few reasons:
1) very unweildy, hard for town to win.
2) saruman and sauron never fought each other, even if they were seperate.
3) double mafia is highly unusual. I'd expect it to be a specialty game, not a normal one.
I didn't spend much more time on town than on mafia in that post; anyways, in this particular game town roles are more interesting to speculate on.
my role PM hints at the presence of a ring. The lack of a ring would also severely weaken the aesthetic virtues of the game, which this game has in spades.
I've only been fighting the two-mafia theory because EVERYONE was just assuming it. I've seen a mafia with two kills in a game before; I've never seen two mafia, as I've stated.
this is about as credible as people attacking you for "trying" to kill Enigma.
I do.
I do.
I affirm.
thanks for not mentioning the final sentence where I place an argument against claiming.
youre treating it like i was actively supporting it immediately when I was doing neither. And it's a good thing to admit when you're wrong/have faulty logic.
I don't believe Frodo is stupid enough to reveal himself (consciously or not) over some speculation about the ring.
you really thought a vig was more likely? also, what purpose would this serve if i were mafia? it encourages a silent vig.
yes.
Would you expect Boromir to be able to behead someone in one blow? I don't recall him or anyone close to his strength ever doing anything close to that.
once again you misstate me. I said we did not have two mafia and a vig who shot last night. That means we could have a mafia and a vig who shot last night or two mafia, but not two mafia AND a vig who shot last night.
I'd never expect this from you. Mafia isn't a puzzle game; hard facts only give you the answers when there are inspectors and roleclaims.
[And you kinda cheated in 7th ed, so lets not even go into that.]
should I retain a position I disagree with?
didn't know that.
I hypothesized it once, never fought for it and yet it still makes me untrustworthy? speculation should be okay, shouldn't it?
living out the day doesn't help the mafia unless they win during the night or have night abilities, both of which don't apply here.
the hidden roleclaim at the beginning signifies some level of planning. And none of this points to me being mafia, because Enigma ISN'T MAFIA. Theres tons of evidence towards him being good and none against.
emphasis by me
In the very same post I make a huge argument for why enigma IS the vig. stop misquoting me.
And once again, votes mean little. This isn't world dom.
no it wouldn't. Enigma's corpse would be shown as boromir.
and the way in which he was killed would show that it was not a vigilante but rather a mafia who killed him. this fake vigilante could not claim, for they would probably be counterclaimed and lynched due to killing a vig (there are almost never two vigs).
you keep on speaking like enigma is mafia. care to back that up? also care to explain why nobody has called him on it if he's NOT boromir?
if he's mafia, what trigger can he pull? are YOU suggesting two-kill mafia?
ENIGMA'S NOT MAFIA.
I do.
No I don't. Going after someone doesn't mean attacking them for a bad reason.
No I don't. I do to revise the post where I FOS myself, which should be obvious.
[quote=azrael]
Speculates a bit more on the hobbits, argues for the existence of vanilla roles, and firmly suggests that the entire fellowship is in the council (an assumption which could conceivably provide the mafia with some very, very air-tight looking claims if that's not the case). [quote]
Someone HAS said axel said theres vanillas, and no way is there going to be only one vanilla in a game, leaving merry and pippin as the mandatory spots left. how should the mafia know that the entire fellowship isn't here, and why shouldn't it be here?
I do.
I do the first one, but I still honestly don't understand what armlx is trying to say in his post. as in, I don't recognize it as english.
slow posting.
see above.
see above.
I do.
prior to this there was no discussion.
anti-town, pro game. Ive seen too many games die because people stop caring on day one.
Are you trying to make me look more suspicious, or just pointing this out?
i'll assume no vote because you know your sheep will vote for you, thus sparing yourself incrimination if I'm town. which I am.
I've said it before; don't blindly trust azrael. He's not always good, and he's not always right.
rebutal to AZ's analysis of him, gets a little hotheaded, not very suspicious
Quote from aurorasparrow »
One thing: If gollum is after the ring, him getting it won't end the game because that would be too much like shaman mafia. So either his winning doesnt end the game or hes an sk.
filler
Quote from aurorasparrow »
wait.. did you read it or not? because voting for me just because an argument was levied against me by azrael seems like a pretty bad reason.
and unlike shaman mafia, give me a chance to talk before lynching me if theres a deadline, eh?
argues against LJ's vote on him
Quote from aurorasparrow »
finals makes for busy students.
SOS: can you show me how to do that? I keep on forgetting how (the post count thing).
a lynch is a lot better than a no-lynch. it looks presently like the most likely candidates are armlx or a lurker. I have a feeling armlx is good, but not anything distinct.
getting the heat for a lynch up, more aggresivness
Quote from aurorasparrow »
With the deadline an interesting question comes up; is it better to vote someone you don't really think is scum, just for the sake of getting a lynch and finding their identity?
I'd reveal now. If you can be auto-cleared we can keep looking to avoid the deadline.
A fairly desperate option: the dice function isn't enabled anymore on these forums is it? if we could agree to somehow choose someone to lynch randomly it might serve better than a no-lynch.
suggests random lynch, not very protown, slightly scummy
Quote from aurorasparrow »
you know something we don't bateleur?
If not, I'd like something more specific.
again, fishes for info
Quote from aurorasparrow »
AAAGH. I had spent all this time on a PBPA of Rhino, then my computer locked and now its all gone. T_T
unvote fayul, vote rhino. im not going to redo it, but there are a lot of attacking and piggyback attacking going on.
and this isn't just because he said i look kinda scummy.
draws attention away from fayul, and votes someone who has been less than suspicious. Maybe trying to save a mafia buddy?
Quote from aurorasparrow »
on the contrary, it would be the height of foolishness for bean to claim something already mentioned. claiming rider of rohan would have been safer.
which, im guessing, also exists but only in the singular sense (so dont even try it mafia). so much for my merry/pippin theory.
filler
Quote from aurorasparrow »
hrm. I can't agree with fayul dying but it was the best course of action and she wasnt exactly innocent-looking.
doc should randomly choose someone to protect. The mafia won't hit either claim scared that the doc won't listen to me.
still attempts to defend fayul, weakily and after she is dead. and suggests a scummy option for docs, relatively suspicous
Quote from aurorasparrow »
before I forget.. I just moved so I won't be on as frequently as I was.
..well, thats a good way to start a day.
Gift Giver is a townie role that bestows minor abilities on other people of the player's choice (not the player themself, however). Student of Aragorn would seem to be a replacement inspector. really lame that he had to die as well.
i guess its time for some d.
Posts Merged - Gob
..oops. I didnt mean to hit post.
okay, here goes..
1. im not stupid enough to kill azrael after he attacked me, were i mafia. especially if I had already lost 2 of my 3 or 4 friends.
2. my advice (SOS reference) WAS good. If I was mafia, I'd have no idea if the doc would follow my advice and have no guarantee of unprotected claimers.
3. people keep on claiming a case against me via azrael, despite my refuting most of it and him giving me a FOS at best.
WAWB: back up much?
self-referencing is a not-great defense because people scream "planted", but since everyone seems to be out for my blood..
1. I called out for someone to analyze me. if I were mafia, Id know azrael was town. seem like a good idea?
2.
needlessly making myself more suspicious?
if youre going to make acase against me, please do so without referencing azrael, who is not infallible and who didnt vote me. also note that even though i unvoted much later (zomg trying to avoid lynch) i drew attention to fayul and kept it even when people attacked me for it.
creates a defense for himself that doesn't hold much water, then contradicts his own actions attempting to defend himself, (put attention on fayul but actually took attention away form fayul by voting rhino)
Quote from aurorasparrow »
? azrael didnt claim.
filler
Quote from aurorasparrow »
even with random lynchings(and the town usually does much better than that), at least 3 baddies should be dead by day 5. also, as long as the sk is alive the town is not dead, so we will live for quite a while. the "do or die" study came from when we thought there were two mafia.
so far we're doing real well. 2 mafia for 4 townies, even with an SK. conversely, we're out 2 inspectors and azrael, so maybe we're only kinda well off.
it looks like merry and pippin won't be in this game, so claiming fellowship is a no-no. the presence of multiple riders, however, suggests a bond (not mason). perhaps theoden's ability relates to them?
a bit more speculatiojn, no scummyness
Quote from aurorasparrow »
how does this make me more suspicious? surely you dont think people would follow me on that vote.
Enigma: I'm not pushing for anyone to claim. Enigma came out on his own. If I was a mafia speculator, I'd discuss it between my mafia buddies instead of out in the open. Im just posting my thoughts.
I'm going to santa cruz for my college orientation so I wont be online for the rest of today or tomorrow. Try not to lynch me until then so I can claim.
defends himself, but rather poorly, contradicts himeself less so than the rest because of the day between, about claiming
Quick summary:
1. pushed for quick early lynch
2. Called for a fellowship claim, never really left the idea for the day
3. pushed for a lurker vote when suspiciouns where aroused
4. Called for a deadline
5. Attempted to pull pressure off fayul unsuccsesfully
6. contradicted himself multiple times during the day
7. misrepresented what he said to defend himself
and with those 7 things I'll upgrade, vote: aurora (hope the PBPA helps, first try)
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
You do realise, armlx, that if we lynch aurorasparrow after he gets back and we're correct that he's mafia, you're almost a certain lynch for tomorrow ? That's not a good look. 8^)
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Hmmm... kind of rude of Aurora to disappear right when his head is on the chopping block, but I don't think lynching him without giving him a chance to defend himself is a good idea. For now, I'm going to Unvote, because I don't want a couple of rashly thrown votes, possibly by the mafia, to deny us a source of information. I'll consider revoting when we hear from aurora again.
I have been mafia in other games and made sure I voted for a fellow mafia person to try and clear myself later. So specifically because he voted fayul early and then unvoted when a stronger case was made, I will FOS aurora I'll upgrade if his defence is not up tp scratch, but I do want to hear his reasoning.
Blargh...I don't like Armlx's vote on SOS....nd I don't really like the bandwagon on AS. Sure he looks scummy...but do we want to lynch him right away and not wait for a better option to present itself? And if nothing better comes up in a few days time we lynch Aurora. W have time, guys.
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"A little sincerity is a dangerous thing and a great deal of it is absolutely fatal."
AS: Again, almost at lynch by the time I read the thread.
OK, so at least that provides you with a chance to prove yourself.
Once aurorasparrow's returned and had a chance to defend himself, then we'll see how you respond. Hopefully, I'll be able to remove my FOS from you at that point.
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Hmmm.... Aurorasparrow hasn't been on lately. I give him till Thursday morning till I vote for him. If he had been on since his last post, my vote would most certainly go to him.
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To the well organized mind, death is but the next great adventure.
You guys, I SAID I'd be gone. sheesh. and enigma fails to point out that I only propose the claim to be later, and only tentatively. He makes it look like I was pushing for it the entire time. I called for a lurker vote/deadline because nothing was happening and I wanted action, if that was an attempted pull off Fayul its the worst I've ever seen, I contradicted myself only because I was doing more thought about the subjects (ZOMG flip-flop) and I did NOT misrepresent myself. Going through my entire series of posts Enigma only found a few slightly scummy posts.
you want a claim? I'm Frodo, *****es. and I'm also immune to the first 2 nightkills against me. so nyeeh.
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
'Lo, there do I see my father. 'Lo, there do I see my mother, and my sisters, and my brothers. 'Lo, there do I see the line of my people back to the beginning. 'Lo, they do call to me. They bid me to take my place amongst them in the halls of Valhalla. Where the brave may live forever.
I believe the claim until a counter-claim turns up, but it seems odd that he revealed his ability. He could have wasted a mafia kill and/or an SK kill if he'd kept it too himself, and there is no way we would have lynched him if nobody else said they were frodo.
I believe the claim until a counter-claim turns up, but it seems odd that he revealed his ability. He could have wasted a mafia kill and/or an SK kill if he'd kept it too himself, and there is no way we would have lynched him if nobody else said they were frodo.
You made me think too much.
[wildspeculation]If Gollum's alt-win condition is to kill Frodo, he can just counterclaim Frodo. If he does, we lynch Aurora. Gollum wins. [/wildspeculation] Is that at all plausible?
[wildspeculation]If Gollum's alt-win condition is to kill Frodo, he can just counterclaim Frodo. If he does, we lynch Aurora. Gollum wins. [/wildspeculation] Is that at all plausible?
nah, that'd be too easy. it's more likely that gollum has to steal the ring from frodo - if frodo dies, it's passed on. kind of like shaman mafia.
[wildspeculation]If Gollum's alt-win condition is to kill Frodo, he can just counterclaim Frodo. If he does, we lynch Aurora. Gollum wins. [/wildspeculation] Is that at all plausible?
I hadn't considered that. I guess titus is right that that would be too easy, but its something to keep in mind if someone does counterclaim.
If another frodo comes forward, hold off the lynch and do an inspection(he can't kill me in one night). Frodo will live and fake Frodo will die.
Right. And if it turns out that Aragorn was our only inspector, then what next?
It seems silly not to lynch one of the 2 people who claim Frodo if such an event does occur, as if there is an inspector, I'd rather sacrifice Frodo to kill the mafia member than reveal the inspector.
Which leaves me somewhat stuck, since apart from what is now a rather weak FOS on armlx, I've got no leads.
Anyone got any ideas ?
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NO! He only has protection from 2 night kills. If we have Enigma target him then he'll only be immune to one and I have a feeling that he'll be a target tonight anyways. Armlx...this would be the time for your case on SOS.
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"A little sincerity is a dangerous thing and a great deal of it is absolutely fatal."
A thoght just hit me. Frodo is pretty much the perfect claim. If a fake Frodo were to claim the role, as while as some sort of nonsensical imunity, this would go a long way to explain why he isn't offed in the night as well as insuring that the real Frodo can't come forward and counter claim as he lacks any protection and would make himself an imediate target for both Gollum and the mafia.
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'Lo, there do I see my father. 'Lo, there do I see my mother, and my sisters, and my brothers. 'Lo, there do I see the line of my people back to the beginning. 'Lo, they do call to me. They bid me to take my place amongst them in the halls of Valhalla. Where the brave may live forever.
I had that thought...and it does make sense. A minor mafia member could claim Frodo as a ploy to draw the real Frodo out. If that is the case Frodo should keep hidden for now. But there's no way to tell if it's a ploy and I'd rather not risk lynching FRodo wihtout knowing the implications of doing so.
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"A little sincerity is a dangerous thing and a great deal of it is absolutely fatal."
I misread that, I thought he was immune to nightkills the first 2 nights :slant:
Of course, if the immunity is to the first 2 nightkills (confusion :S) then it's a very bad thing to do.
...
the next night is night 3 IIRC. FOS: SOS (that has a nice ring to it...) Yes, I realize this isn't that suspcious, but still... That's why I'm only FOS ing.
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
No case, Armlx? Mmm...this isn't good. The mafia is killed off the dicusion-makers. A good strategy because it leaves us with a dead thread and less information to use for a lynch. So lets just keep talking as much as we can and maybe someone will slip up. Where to go from here? I'm gonna do some thinking.
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"A little sincerity is a dangerous thing and a great deal of it is absolutely fatal."
Sorry for the delay, but I've been busy playtesting for Regionals and watching the Pistons win (I'm from MI) for the past couple days. PBPA time. (Note: Next Post means his next post is irrelivant in full context to quote).
as this is my first mafia game I'm unsure about some stuff anyway.
But I don't think this game will be so short. Let's assume we have 2 mafia groups
The 2 mafia will make 2 kills per night, and because we don't have all too many people in this game (20, if we go with the post earlier suggesting there were 6-7 mafia roles there would be 14 people in the game.) It's safe to say we have a SK, so that's 13 neutral townspeople. I think Axelrod would see that 13 townies paired against 2 groups of mafia and a SK, meaning at the worst for the townies a game-over in 5 nights, and if the townies don't lynch well enough, and the SK doesn't kill enough mafia, it's a game over in 7 nights, excluding any possible docs. I'd say it's safe to assume the mafia groups don't know each other.
If we have 1 mafia group, I don't know where the 3d kill came from.
Oh, and because this is my first post ever in a mafia game, Vote:No Lynch for day one.
Votes No Lynch and knows what he is doing with it. May have been a joke, but a general bad idea.
The sentance at the end of the last paragraph seems to imply he knows more about the mafia, but it could be solid speculation.
well, even if there are 2 mafia, we don't know if they can see each other.
If the mafia groups know who the other group is, then the town is screwed.
If they don't, the town has a fighting chance.
Of course, It can also be so that the town has a LOT of abilities to fight against the two groups of mafia.
Suggests mafia with 2 night kills, or some sort of connection. Random speculation.
Well, from what I've gathered, Puzzle always comes up with a Cunning PlanTM. Basically a plot to let everyone reveal something that seems trivial at first but later may compromise them.
If the vig is one-shot, and he comes forward now, the mafia will kill him. What have we achieved? Nothing. Of course, the mafia COULD first kill someone else, because they know he is a (now-helpless) townie. But it will help them achieving majority. The only thing we could hope to gain from that is that, if there are 2 mafia groups, both mafia groups will target him meaning only 1 mafia kill and a SK. I'd say, let's not have the vig reveal himself if he is a one-shot.
Terrible logic here. Just trying to disorientate the town.
Page Seven: Confused about FOS.
Okay, I am going to FOS: God child and FOS:Kpaca for suggesting that any vigilante should come forward. In my post on page 6 (I believe) I already said that it's not a good idea for the town to have the vig (again, if there is any) come forward, because (I assume we have a 2-mafia set up) the mafia will have a certain kill. If the 2 mafia groups know wich members are in the other group, it won't matter much, but if they can't see each other we rule out the possibility of a mafia accidentically killing another mafia. If the SK would have an alternate win condition, he will know that the vig isn't his kill, and prey on another member. This heightens the chance of killing a mafia, but it also heightens the chance of getting the right character (Assuming that he needs to kill Frodo) and winning the game.
Terrible plan, and we're not even sure wether it WAS a vigilante.
:(. Bad logic again.If a vigilante who killed last night reveal them self (like they did) we would have much less confusion. It was a decent idea, but it was under the assumption we had 2 mafia and an SK in addition to the vig who killed night 1. The nuber of kills did not indicate this.
Next Post: Realizes what I just said and claims noobishness.
Next Post: Asks about Enigma's subliminal claim.
Next Post: Says he found it.
hehe, thank you Dazbog, I'll remember it
Truly, shouldn't mafia games be played on facts, and not feelings? I won't vote back because that would be meaningless, so a FOS:armlx will do.
OMGUS FoS on me. Theres more here but again, can be explained by n00bishness.
Could anyone fill me in what happens if a vig and the mafia target the same character? will that result in only one kill? If so, isn't it also possible that a vig shot last night and targeted the same character as (assuming 2 mafia here) one of the 2 mafia groups or the sk?
Tries to push a 2 mafia set up under rediculously unlikely circumstances.
Next Post: Irrelevant.
I don't see how him claiming his character would be any different than him claiming being a vig. The only positive thing it might bring is that someone else will come forward and say that the character he said he was is already taken. Wich, by the way, won't happen because we would most certainly lynch enigma91, and if he turned out to be the character he claimed to be, the person who said he wasn't will be lynched next. No one is stupid enough to do that. (I'm analysing, make sure you pay attention :tongue2: )
Wants the town to give up a chance to get more information that may be relevant.
Well, it's as good as any guess is this early on. We are vurnerable to the next mafia hit anyway. I don't see why you would have to put everything so one-dimensional, if not if you would benifit from it.
FOS: Deadly budah
Referring to Buddah saying uing a watcher role on Enigma was a waste as he could just be drawing attention from where it is needed. Bad logic here. He also edits this post immediately after posting it.
@ godchild: ok, I thought that editing in a space 1 minute after my post and none after mine in that massive timespan warranted an edit. I know why you can't edit posts, because you might edit out anything incriminating, but 1 minute after is relatively harmless, don't you think? Oh well
FOS:Azrael
Failed joke. hahaha
Goes after latest bandwagon (which was a stupid one) and claims newbieness on his edit.
Next Post: Ambiguously claims his role doesn't match his character but "he could be wrong". Basically, gives no solid answer.
Just because It has the potential doesn't mean it's necessarily so. I don't see this day coming to a lynch, and I don't see anything more constructed coming out of it. Of course, A limit is not good, because we don't know how other days will go.
Referring to D1 being the most important. Gives up on a lynch and more info right away.
I think that aurora defended himself quite well in the conversation. I'd say that a FOS:aurorasparrow would suffice. He did not cast all suspicion off, but he isn't suspicious enough to warrant a vote at this point.
Meh, whatever.
Dazbog: I believe It has been said by someone else, but if enigma is NOT boromir or a vig character, the real boromor/vig will chop his head of during the night anyway, so no worries there.
also, first voting for me because of a "feeling", and after that voting for enigma because he hasn't seen the logic in what I said above, I am going to Vote: armlx
Votes me for stupidity, which I can understand.
Next Post: Gives a post count.
@ everyone: you click the number of posts next to the thread, and you copy/paste
I don't know armlx in the other games, but worthawholebean is looking a lot more scummy than armlx is atm, so Unvote Vote: worthawholebean
Swaps to next wagon.
Worthawholebean: I don't see how. Just because you have the majority of the votes at the moment does not mean that armlx is suddenly devoid of any suspicion. He still did some questionable things (most notably for me voting me with no reason) and is still suspicious in my book. You just look a lot more suspicious atm.
Still feels violated in a way by my 1 vote on him.
Next Post: Votes Fayul.
Next Post: Says Bateleur s next to go if Fayul is townie.
Next Post: Irrelevant
Next Post: Says Axelrod would never allow Soldiers of Gondor and other generic characters in the game.
on with some speculation, all just pure conjecture.
Fayul: Mafia with morgul blade = Mafia with a one-shot extra kill. Not that it matters now (unless there are more nazgul around)
Azrael: Student of aragorn = able to contact and talk to aragorn during the night? If so, pretty useless since aragorn died the first night
Pibbly: Town gift giver = now this I really don't know. Maybe changing the role certain players have, or an extra protection? (Galadriel's potion kinda saved frodo/sam after all)
Hawkeye7: Future King = I think this is only flavor, nothing special here (aside from being town investigator)
I think Aurorasparrow is the most suspicious right now, especially with this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aurorasparrow doc should randomly choose someone to protect. The mafia won't hit either claim scared that the doc won't listen to me
This isn't a useful advice, if you ask me. Maybe this is a ploy to draw away doc protection, or to lock it so that the mafia has no fear of wasting a kill.
Vote: Aurorasparrow since he is the most scummy at the moment
Random Speculation, votes Aurorasparrow. Nothing big.
Armlx is again casting suspicion on me for no particular reason (a "feeling")
Truly, if anything, try and analyse instead of being ridiculous.
FOS: Armlx
I would vote for you, but that would make aurorasparrow feel lonely, I guess. I'd be happy to lynch either of you, because you just SCREAM scum to me.
Meh, whatever. Townish, OMGUSish.
how exactly am I defensive? A FOS holds practically no power whatsoever. It's just that I point out to other people that he is being suspicious at best.
Somewhere earlier in the thread, he got a "feeling" that I was scum or something. I will underline the important part: He voted for me because he FELT i was scummy, but when he is confronted with a similar situation, he suddenly says that he always plays scummy, and that it should not be held against him
Granted, people don't know how I play, first game and all, but that is truly ridiculous, even voteworthy. It's just that Aurorasparrow is very suspicious too. As I said, they both are suspicious, and I keep my vote on Aurora atm.
Again, townish.
Sounds pretty believable, but it's a very easy role to claim, ESPECIALLY when one died this night and the tone of the story hinted at the possibility of multiple riders. Still, if you get a "Feeling", analyse what that person has posted so far, and if you can't find anything conclusive, then don't vote
Doesn't realize I left my subliminal claim on day 1 before another Rider died.
OK armlx, that gets you off the hook for the claim, but I still can't grasp just why you voted for me with no relevant evidence that I would be scum at all. If that's your play style, I'd say it's more stupid than scummy.
Oh, and the vote for me was earlier in the thread, so not the one on this page.
Admits to mistake, describes my play style.
Unvote: Aurorasparrow
Fos: Aurorasparrow
We should not rush into lynches, I agree, so I'll give him a chance to defend himself and try to prove wether he's scum or not.
Mind you, I am NOT letting him get off the hook so easily, but a few quick-fire votes should not end the day prematurely.
Tries to slow down lynch. Good townie.
? I believe axelrod has mistaken my FOS on armlx as a vote.
Funny how I have to unvote my fos, but hell
Unvote: armlx
Frodo claiming does leave us quite stuck. If he TRULY is immune to nightkills, maybe we should have enigma test it out, don't you think?
Bad idea.
I misread that, I thought he was immune to nightkills the first 2 nights :slant:
Of course, if the immunity is to the first 2 nightkills (confusion :S) then it's a very bad thing to do.
Explains bad idea.
There is nothing more then a FOS on SOS here. The only things I see could be n00bishness, though the sudden increase in skill about half way through makes me
Unvote FOS SOS
However, as I was reading, I think I found a slip up. Wothawholebean claimed a Soldier of Gondor. So far, we have only seen Riders as generic roles. If no one can claim Soldier, I will vote for him.
Preview Edit: Geez, this post is a monster. Sorry too all who have to read it then scroll through it every other time.
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Y'know what armlx - I think you may have just undermined your own defence !
I was thinking it was a bit odd when you claimed to be another rider. But just now saying that Soldier of Gondor seems unlikely to you reminded me of something...
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Kamigawa Mafia didn't have duplicated roles, so that question is meaningless. (Technically the answer is "before" since he had no way to know what roles other players had in general.)
Anyway, I want to see how others react before proceeding, but actually there's a pretty rock solid way to test my theory if necessary (at the cost of possibly one vanilla townie being forced to roleclaim, which is why I don't want to do unless it proves necessary).
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Has anyone attempted to see if they can find other subliminal claims from armlx? if we can find more than one we have a possible mafia, actually while I'm looking I see that armlx claimed his ability matched his rolename, if your vanilla and your name is rider of rohan how does that match? maybe trying to set up a nice cache of claims there? for now a little pressure won't hurt armlx so vote: armlx
also what bat points out is rather damning, and the fact that AZ mentioned the role you claimed in his post here:
Quote from Azrael »
"Soldier of Gondor" is actually a phrase that appears in the books, or possibly within the movies, much like "Rider of Rohan", I believe.
Unless he's counter-claimed, I'd say it's a fairly solid role-claim.
As for myself, no, I'm not a Soldier of Gondor. If I was, I would have counter-claimed him as the likelihood of two such roles in the game is relatively low.
BTW, any response to the PBPA by Dazbog?
Admitedly though when AZ died it seemed like there might be other roles with the same name, however in my mind it doesn't help you at all, if you can justify your reasoning for saying that your role fits with the book/movie/rolename then my vote will be removed
Bateleur seems to have had some knowledge of the Riders, AZ was one and two other people claimed Rider (I think). Plus Sam, Aragorn, Frodo, Boromir and Galadriel leaves 7 townie roles. I think if a Soldier of Gondor existed it would have to exist with a couple other soldiers or people with prior knowledge.
Ill be back gotta do something befor estore closes
Two other people claimed rider besides Az ? I must have missed both of those. Who was it ?
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oh, oops. bean claimed soldier, not rider. armlx apparently claimed rider, though I can't find it. we still have no proof of duplicate roles yet.
this lack of inspectors is hard (btw yeah if another frodo claims both of us should be lynched), since now we can't disprove people and vanilla roles are easy to hide under. I think finding if duplicate riders and soldiers exist is important.
AZ's role suggests the presence of another rider since he was a special rider. On the other hand he thinks the presence of duplicates unlikely.
Azrael doesn't count as a townie because of his ability, and since we know vanillas exist there should be at least 3-4 of them and maybe more.
It does look like the mafia is attacking high posters, which is frankly a ***** move. Theres at least one experienced, moderately high posting mafia.
so far we're doing real well. 2 mafia for 4 townies, even with an SK. conversely, we're out 2 inspectors and azrael, so maybe we're only kinda well off.
it looks like merry and pippin won't be in this game, so claiming fellowship is a no-no. the presence of multiple riders, however, suggests a bond (not mason). perhaps theoden's ability relates to them?
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
I made pretty clear yesterday that I didn't ever regard armlx as cleared of suspicion. Now I notice from his logs that there was a substantial period of time where he could have voted for Fayul but didn't. FOS armlx
And then we've got titus saying "the case against armlx is weaker than the one against worthawholebean, so i wouldn't advise going after him next". That's combined with the fact that titus himself is not only lurking but didn't vote at all, which is a sneaky way to stay off the radar as someone who held back Fayul's lynch. FOS: titus
As for aurorasparrow, not only is his defence feeble, he's now trying to talk about town roles when there's really no need. And scanning back through old posts, I notice a very sly comment he makes where he claims to have done a PBPA on rhinocero which was "lost by his computer", but was allegedly suspicious. He then uses this as an excuse to vote rhinocero. And finally:
Is anyone else seeing patterns ? I think it's time to upgrade my FOS:
UnFOS: aurorasparrow
Vote: aurorasparrow
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
By the way....
/me does the happy dance for finally being right in a lynch vote!
Aurora really doesn't seem that suspicious to me today. Yesterday, he was bit overagressive. Still, the only reason I found him suspicious was because a dearth of oher suspects, as I've said before. Today, he's done some good analysis and defense. I'm convinced he's town.
I'm somewhat suspicious of all the people bandwagoning on aurora. Most of them are FOSes, but there's probably some mafia there or in the votes.
:confused3: Casting votes on feelings sometimes is a large part of mafia sometimes, from what I've seen. You are acting a bit scummy by being so defensive, but again, not very much so.
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
[/QUOTE]
sorry, i have been lurking. i've had little-to-no-time lately, seeing as finals are this week, i have had football and lifting every day for the past two weeks, general stress fest. i havn't been getting home until 8 every weekday for the past week.
anyways, the reason i didn't vote for fayul is because the day ended before i saw the computer again. i mean, the last time i saw it, the case against wawb had stalled, and people were just FOSing fayul. she had been lynched by the time i saw the thread again (oops)
i also didn't suggest going agter armlx because, at the time, he hadn't done anything suspicious. in retrosuspect, his unwillingness to vote for fayul was suspicious, but that was after my comment.
yes, i also find aurasparrow suspicious, but nothing voteworthy. while i'm not as convinced as, say, rhinocero here, i can't definitively say that he is scum. he has been overaggressive and he has also pushed for townies to reveal their roles, which is, now that i think about, fairly voteworthy at this stage in the game.
vote aurasparrow
I am a vannila rider. My "Rant at Axelrod" was a subliminal hint. The first letter of every sentance spells out RIDER. I didn't vote for Fayul because by the time I got around to it she was already lynched.
Also, Sparrow, how did you know there were multiple Riders? Only 1 Rider died or claimed I belive. There is no connection from my role. Just like a basic townie :(.
Enigma: I'm not pushing for anyone to claim. Enigma came out on his own. If I was a mafia speculator, I'd discuss it between my mafia buddies instead of out in the open. Im just posting my thoughts.
I'm going to santa cruz for my college orientation so I wont be online for the rest of today or tomorrow. Try not to lynch me until then so I can claim.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
As for armlx - the stealth claim is indeed there, but that's hardly very convincing considering the timing. Also ISTR stealth claims being regarded as rather weak strategy in mafia circles ? I'd be voting for you right now on the strength of that... except that I'm not prepared to take my vote off your accomplice aurorasparrow.
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
And now I'm going to attempt a PBPA of aurora:
Basic speculation on mafia setup, and some town roles, notthing suspicious
More speculation on mafia setup. But also adds in a call for action, and wants a target to lynch, somewhat suspicious to be asking for a lynch option so quickly
Points out my speculation about bilbo doesn't matter, and discredits it. Nothing suspicious
Points out number of kills per day with double mafia theory. Leans away form double mafia a little bit. Explains the disadvantages of no lynches to SOS. And looks for lurkers again, possibly after a quick lynch still? slightly scummy because unless there is cop info quick lynches generally favor mafia but lessening the amount of information that gets out for the town.
ugh didn't mean to do that, but continuing with the analysis
points out another mafia setup/ability possibility. Suggests a fellowship claim, definetly a very mafia-esque move since that would reveal possible power roles and give the mafia a clear shot at many town players. extremly scummy
talks about the possible alternate wincondition for gollum, withdraws his plan for fellowship claim
suggests the plan can be used after gollum or frodo are dead, to circumvent a possible gollum alternate win, slightly odd thats hes holding to such a town hazardous plan
looks for more speculation on the ring, and asks valid questions about what would happen if it was in the game, not really scummy
points out that a vig(me) could have misfired and would make more sense thatn a one shot extra mafia kill, not suspicious
looks at who could have made the kills, tells peopel not to point out hidden claims, says don't claim after suggesting the fellwoship claim idea, somewhat contradictory of himself, so somewhat scummy
supports my claim because of the hardness of false claiming it, determines the setup for the mafia, votes fayul for being #3 on me, and therefore scummy because #3 is where the mafia attempts to snowball the bandwagon. not scummy, one of the biggest reasons he likely isn't mafia, unless it was to draw suspicion from himself when it wouldnt hurt fayul.
basic speculation
filler
analyses AZ, nothing suspicious
fixes his fos
fillerish
speculation about vanilla roles
again contradicts his original idea of fellowship claim
filler
fishes for info
filler
a bit more filler
Fos pibbly after he gives a reason, seems a little itchy for action
suggests a time limit for the day, extremly mafia-esque for reasons already stated. Larger reason he seems to be mafia
defends his proposition
rebutal to AZ's analysis of him, gets a little hotheaded, not very suspicious
filler
argues against LJ's vote on him
getting the heat for a lynch up, more aggresivness
suggests random lynch, not very protown, slightly scummy
again, fishes for info
draws attention away from fayul, and votes someone who has been less than suspicious. Maybe trying to save a mafia buddy?
filler
still attempts to defend fayul, weakily and after she is dead. and suggests a scummy option for docs, relatively suspicous
creates a defense for himself that doesn't hold much water, then contradicts his own actions attempting to defend himself, (put attention on fayul but actually took attention away form fayul by voting rhino)
filler
a bit more speculatiojn, no scummyness
defends himself, but rather poorly, contradicts himeself less so than the rest because of the day between, about claiming
Quick summary:
1. pushed for quick early lynch
2. Called for a fellowship claim, never really left the idea for the day
3. pushed for a lurker vote when suspiciouns where aroused
4. Called for a deadline
5. Attempted to pull pressure off fayul unsuccsesfully
6. contradicted himself multiple times during the day
7. misrepresented what he said to defend himself
and with those 7 things I'll upgrade, vote: aurora (hope the PBPA helps, first try)
aurorasparrow - 6 (SOS, Deadly Budah, god child, bateleur, titus, Enigma91)
With 14 alive it takes 8 to lynch.
Vote SOS
Nice try, but my subliminal claim was before the role was out.
FOS Bat
See above.
You do realise, armlx, that if we lynch aurorasparrow after he gets back and we're correct that he's mafia, you're almost a certain lynch for tomorrow ? That's not a good look. 8^)
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
Reasons for me not voting:
Fayul: She was already dead by the time I read the thread. I could have cast vote 10...
AS: Again, almost at lynch by the time I read the thread.
I've been play testing for MTG regionals sooo much, its almost obsessive....
PBPA on SOS later.
OK, so at least that provides you with a chance to prove yourself.
Once aurorasparrow's returned and had a chance to defend himself, then we'll see how you respond. Hopefully, I'll be able to remove my FOS from you at that point.
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
you want a claim? I'm Frodo, *****es. and I'm also immune to the first 2 nightkills against me. so nyeeh.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
Only thing is, maybe he shouldn't have claimed night abilities?
aurorasparrow - 4 (Deadly Budah, bateleur, titus, Enigma91)
SOS - 1 (Armlx)
With 14 alive it takes 8 to lynch.
who does that leave us with?
[wildspeculation]If Gollum's alt-win condition is to kill Frodo, he can just counterclaim Frodo. If he does, we lynch Aurora. Gollum wins. [/wildspeculation] Is that at all plausible?
nah, that'd be too easy. it's more likely that gollum has to steal the ring from frodo - if frodo dies, it's passed on. kind of like shaman mafia.
I hadn't considered that. I guess titus is right that that would be too easy, but its something to keep in mind if someone does counterclaim.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
Right. And if it turns out that Aragorn was our only inspector, then what next?
It seems silly not to lynch one of the 2 people who claim Frodo if such an event does occur, as if there is an inspector, I'd rather sacrifice Frodo to kill the mafia member than reveal the inspector.
Unvote: aurorasparrow
Which leaves me somewhat stuck, since apart from what is now a rather weak FOS on armlx, I've got no leads.
Anyone got any ideas ?
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
Me testing out aurora's claim is a very bad idea for obv reasons.
...
the next night is night 3 IIRC. FOS: SOS (that has a nice ring to it...) Yes, I realize this isn't that suspcious, but still... That's why I'm only FOS ing.
SOS - 1 (Armlx)
With 14 alive it takes 8 to lynch.
Votes No Lynch and knows what he is doing with it. May have been a joke, but a general bad idea.
The sentance at the end of the last paragraph seems to imply he knows more about the mafia, but it could be solid speculation.
Suggests mafia with 2 night kills, or some sort of connection. Random speculation.
Terrible logic here. Just trying to disorientate the town.
Page Seven: Confused about FOS.
:(. Bad logic again.If a vigilante who killed last night reveal them self (like they did) we would have much less confusion. It was a decent idea, but it was under the assumption we had 2 mafia and an SK in addition to the vig who killed night 1. The nuber of kills did not indicate this.
Next Post: Realizes what I just said and claims noobishness.
Next Post: Asks about Enigma's subliminal claim.
Next Post: Says he found it.
OMGUS FoS on me. Theres more here but again, can be explained by n00bishness.
Tries to push a 2 mafia set up under rediculously unlikely circumstances.
Next Post: Irrelevant.
Wants the town to give up a chance to get more information that may be relevant.
Referring to Buddah saying uing a watcher role on Enigma was a waste as he could just be drawing attention from where it is needed. Bad logic here. He also edits this post immediately after posting it.
Goes after latest bandwagon (which was a stupid one) and claims newbieness on his edit.
Next Post: Ambiguously claims his role doesn't match his character but "he could be wrong". Basically, gives no solid answer.
Referring to D1 being the most important. Gives up on a lynch and more info right away.
Meh, whatever.
Votes me for stupidity, which I can understand.
Next Post: Gives a post count.
Swaps to next wagon.
Still feels violated in a way by my 1 vote on him.
Next Post: Votes Fayul.
Next Post: Says Bateleur s next to go if Fayul is townie.
Next Post: Irrelevant
Next Post: Says Axelrod would never allow Soldiers of Gondor and other generic characters in the game.
Random Speculation, votes Aurorasparrow. Nothing big.
Meh, whatever. Townish, OMGUSish.
Again, townish.
Doesn't realize I left my subliminal claim on day 1 before another Rider died.
Admits to mistake, describes my play style.
Tries to slow down lynch. Good townie.
Bad idea.
Explains bad idea.
There is nothing more then a FOS on SOS here. The only things I see could be n00bishness, though the sudden increase in skill about half way through makes me
Unvote
FOS SOS
However, as I was reading, I think I found a slip up. Wothawholebean claimed a Soldier of Gondor. So far, we have only seen Riders as generic roles. If no one can claim Soldier, I will vote for him.
Preview Edit: Geez, this post is a monster. Sorry too all who have to read it then scroll through it every other time.
I was thinking it was a bit odd when you claimed to be another rider. But just now saying that Soldier of Gondor seems unlikely to you reminded me of something...
...oh yes, it was that time in Kamigawa Mafia where you tried to defend yourself using stealth roleclaims.
I don't think you're a rider of Rohan at all !
Vote: armlx
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
But did his stealth claim come before or after the revelation of the role?
Anyway, I want to see how others react before proceeding, but actually there's a pretty rock solid way to test my theory if necessary (at the cost of possibly one vanilla townie being forced to roleclaim, which is why I don't want to do unless it proves necessary).
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
also what bat points out is rather damning, and the fact that AZ mentioned the role you claimed in his post here:
Admitedly though when AZ died it seemed like there might be other roles with the same name, however in my mind it doesn't help you at all, if you can justify your reasoning for saying that your role fits with the book/movie/rolename then my vote will be removed
Ill be back gotta do something befor estore closes
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
this lack of inspectors is hard (btw yeah if another frodo claims both of us should be lynched), since now we can't disprove people and vanilla roles are easy to hide under. I think finding if duplicate riders and soldiers exist is important.
AZ's role suggests the presence of another rider since he was a special rider. On the other hand he thinks the presence of duplicates unlikely.
Azrael doesn't count as a townie because of his ability, and since we know vanillas exist there should be at least 3-4 of them and maybe more.
It does look like the mafia is attacking high posters, which is frankly a ***** move. Theres at least one experienced, moderately high posting mafia.
I REALLY had something else to say, but I forgot.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%