Actually I think both do, Pibbly said he was on vacation, but said he start posting more today, and swinkee said he wouldn't be able to post because of studying for exams, so I think a lurker vote is out unless we go for Titus...
Actually I think both do, Pibbly said he was on vacation, but said he start posting more today, and swinkee said he wouldn't be able to post because of studying for exams, so I think a lurker vote is out unless we go for Titus...
Which doesn't make sense as he's just joined the game recently. That means that if were to lurker vote, our best choices would be LJustus (who posts very infrequently, mainly only to vote when his suspicions have been riled up) and worthawholebean (who at first and to a lesser extent now has been giving me a bit of a scum vibe; however,my scumdar isn't very well tuned, and he's been posting more recently) so no lurker votes ATM. That leaves armlx as the most suspicious person on the field, and I don't think he's very scummy. Other suspicions have been cast mainly on aurorasparrow, but again, he doesn't seem like a good lynch target. So I got nothin.
PPE @ armlx - Swinkee's been studying. That actually makes you look a bit more scummy... not too bad in my eyes, but the best lynch target at the present time.
Ack! Sorry for not posting sooner, but I've been without internet access for a couple of days, and because I've got exams soon, my posting might be sporadic for a couple of weeks.QUOTE]
[QUOTE=swinkee]First off, I'm not lurking, I just have limited access to internet because of exams pending. I mentioned that before, but I'd just like to restate that.
If he doesn't have acess to internet then he can't post, he has made an effort to post though so I wouldn't count him as a lurker
SOS: can you show me how to do that? I keep on forgetting how (the post count thing).
a lynch is a lot better than a no-lynch. it looks presently like the most likely candidates are armlx or a lurker. I have a feeling armlx is good, but not anything distinct.
Voting on how much someone posts is actually a really good choice. If someone is posting less, they reveal less about themselves, which can conceal the fact they are mafia.
Titus: Just joined and needs time to catch up.
Pibbly: On vacation.
Swinkee: Studying.
Ljustus: Works (I know this from the other games we've been in)
That leaves you as the next target. And the way you are reacting doesn't bode well for you.
Day one lurker lynches or me lynches tend to be the way to go arounds here. The one exception was Shaman Mafia.
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Alright, let's see what we can dig up about Armlx then, before we get too far along towards condemning him to the gallows.
Quote from armlx »
Ouch, 3 killing groups? Just to speculate, maybe 2 mafias (Sauroman and Sauron) and an SK (Balrog?).
Suggests a two mafia setup, which was the most sensible conclusion given the information at hand. The balrog suggestion not so much, but that's just testing knowledge of the books.
Quote from armlx »
Good analysis Azrael. Of all people you should know this based on your avatar. Had I been mod, I would have wanted to give you hawkeye's role just for fun.
Support's Az's analysis.
Quote from armlx »
While there are a lot of newbies in the game, I would have thought the vig who misfired would come forward and say so just to stop the confusion.
As for Enigma, I have no clue yet whether this is a ploy, so I will simply FOS Enigma
FOSes Enigma for planting his none-too-subtle hint.
Quote from armlx »
Nothing new to input except this.
Vote SOS
Just a general idea, but for Day 1 that's enough for me. No specifics, just this feeling from his posts...
Votes SOS, citing vague feelings of scumminess.
Quote from armlx »
Vote Enigma91
What he said. Reeks more of an SK hiding to me though. Mafia being forced by the town to kill whoever like a vig would is a bad idea.
Irrelevant Side Note: LJustus, I finally realized where your avatar is from. It's been bugging me since you changed it in Kamigawa Mafia. I knew I had seen it, just now where.
Votes Enigma as a suspected SK trying to dodge the pressure on him.
Quote from armlx »
I'm 100% sure there are non-big name characters in this game, otherwise a claim would break it. Just my 2 cents.
Also Unvote who ever I am voting. I think we are back to square one with a claimed vig.
Shares info, unvotes enigma, supports the idea that he's a claimed vig.
Quote from armlx »
I say we find a random lurker and pressure them. That always sounds good to me.
Unvote
Vote Kpaca
Attempts to lurker vote.
Quote from armlx »
Very well. My bad there. Missed the last half a page or so. Trying to catch up on 4 pages of activity at 4 in the morning = bad.
Unvote
My ability is logical with my role name. Thats about all I can say for now.
Shares info.
Quote from armlx »
You know, the last Aurorasparrow wagon was for the exact same kind of comments and we were wrong. I am going to hold my vote and ask others to do the same. He is very pro-discussion and a benefit to the town.
In fact, I will even go as far as to
Vote Pibbly
He has posted relatively little and was my next lurker target.
Also, FOS Deadly Buddah for similar reasons.
Supports aurorasparrow, and votes against Pibbly in response, and also due to lurking.
FOSes Deadly budah for similar reasons.
Quote from armlx »
Pibbly: I forgot about your lurking excuse. Had I known, I would have FOS'ed you and voted Buddah. I can miss some details at times (Shaman Mafia: Swink's investigations when voting for you then Puzzle...).
Enigma has been lurking more so then Pibbly or Buddah, and I am still suspicious of an SK posing as a vig. While I am supporting Aurorasparrow over Az, I will have to go with what I've seen in other games and
Vote Enigma
You are trying to play the n00b card, and I don't belive you are one. The loss of a randomly firing vig is nothing terrible, so youare the one I say should go.
Oops, forgot to
Unvote
Vote Enigma
FOS Pibbly
Changes his mind and cites his old suspicions returning, and votes Enigma. Also alleges that a mis-firing vig is a detriment to the town, and that he's trying to play the n00b card to clear himself.
Quote from armlx »
Hmmm...(rereads books and watches movies).... didn't Borimir become nearly corrupted by the Ring? Just a side topic. I will keep my vote on Enigma for other reasons as until a better wagon emerges.
Suggests that Boromir himself might be a mafia agent (a dubious theory, at best).
Quote from armlx »
Meh, this is why I'm 3 for 5 D1 lynches here (well, 2 for 5 is you don't count the being claimed in Kamigawa Mafia). If I survive to Day 2 and we actually have info, I get better (see Shaman Mafia, had 2.5 of 4 mafia figured out 1 day before everyone by Axel).
I still think Enigma is scum.
Reiterates his belief that enigma is scum.
Quote from armlx »
Bat: What you are basically saying is that I am always the best D1 lynch cuz I always act scummy. I understand the lynch the scummiest person thing, but I also understand a concept that you lynch on behavioral changes. People tend to act differently if they are scum then town. I, however, act more or less the same every game no matter what side I am on. Therefore by you rules, you should automatically lynch me D1 every game. However, logically, you have no more clue as to whether I am scum or not then anyone else and my scummy behavior is equivalently the same as another person's normal behavior. My acting scummy is an ever constant thing that you must learn to live with.
True, watching for behavioral changes is a good tactic, and lynching people like Stevie or Armlx on day one can become a pitfall. Still, lynching persons who consistently act scummy can pay off by either hitting scum, or by motivating them to become better, stronger townspeople.
Quote from armlx »
Umm, Fayul, Axle even said not everyone is in this game. Honestly, I see 3 choices myself
1. Enigma is a stupid vig and will have to be told exactly what to do for the rest of the game.
2. Enigma is Gollum and luck claimed into Borimir as pressure started on him (or he was given a safe claim).
3. Enigma is a corrupted Borimir.
Personally, I don't belive Enigma is that bad as to vig on night 1, hence my vote.
Offers his view of our possibilites for Enigma. Personally, I think he's missing a few, but whatever.
Quote from armlx »
I would give titus more time. He more or less just replaced kapaca. Swinkee seems like the next best target as a lurker, so I guess
Unvote Vote Swinkee
Also, since he is the second most lurky
FOS worthawholebean
Lurker votes and lurker FOSes.
Quote from armlx »
Ok, missed that post by swinkee. That changes things
Unvote Vote worthawholebean
On LJustus, I will say something similiar to what I said about myself. He always has a low post count and acts like this.
Continues lurker campaign.
In conclusion, I think armlx's behavior this time around is mostly a result of his relying on feelings and intuition over evidence and logic. That's probably the cause most of the time, actually, but I think it holds true here. I'd personally want some more evidence before starting a campaign against him.
Instead, if anyone else can think of alternatives, or scrounge up random posts they believe are scummy, or draw up some new and different cases, we might be able to get something going here before our time's up. I agree that lynching someone is still our best plan, but let's try and at least make a concerted effort to find a well-supported, intelligent choice.
Worthawholebean: Since you wanted a reason to vote you, I will do a PBPA.
I concur completely. Enigma91's post does seem to be trying to draw attention away from Gollum, and lynching an SK early would definitely help the town. FOS: Enigma91. I'm not going to vote yet, but we should definitely keep an eye on him.
Standard Enigma Wagon. Note that he joined the game later at page 3.
Post 125: Confused about Enigma's claim. Not really relevant, but seems as though he has been reading the content. 6 pages after last post.
First of all, UnFOS: Enigma91
He's almost definitely a vig, so as long as he works with us, he shouldn't be a problem. Sorry about not posting much; this is only my second mafia game and the first one ended rather prematurely (Blind Mafia). The FOS on Enigma earlier was not a bandwagoning attempt. I was just agreeing with Fayul. Looking back on it, it does seem a little suspicious, I guess.
I think Gollum might have an alternate win condition, but let's not jump to conclusions. Sure, he may have an alternate win condition, and if he does, it's almost definitely killing Frodo, but he very well might not. However, I don't see how revealing whether we (everyone) are townies would help us. I'm pretty sure there are generic townie roles, so the mafia and SK could just claim generic and we'd be clueless as to whom to lynch. No, any sort of roleclaiming is a bad idea right now, IMO.
Note how he tries to assert he was not band waggoning. Hmm....
Is against claiming townie or major role. Good idea.
Gollum thing rather irrelevant IMO.
On Page 15.
Page 16: Says role matches ability.
Page 17: Seems to hint Azrael is being hypocritical (at least IMO) because Az said he was against the claims but still claimed. Assumes roles match books.
Page 18: Looks for someone to lynch. Standard what everyone was trying to do.
Only one thing jumps out at me through AS' posts, and that's saying "I'd hate to have to lynch a lurker." He misspoke, but whether it was a mafia slip or means nothing, I don't know.
Something strikes me odd from this post. There is nothing wrong with Aurora's statement, yet he tries to twist it to say something incriminating.
I was just thinking, maybe there's some sort of thing with Gollum vs. Smeagol? Like, maybe Gollum is an SK, but not really? Some combination of vig/SK? I don't know. More gray area.
EBWODP: Maybe the mafia are the ones lurking, and that's why people don't look very suspicious. That's probably wrong, though. Just speculating.
Tries to say Gollum might be innocent. Prolly just spec.
I'll get to the EBWODP later.
Then you shoiuld unvote if you really are town.. FOS: Armix
Said in regards to my "I always act this way" post. Again, only FOS'es instead of voting on a band wagon. Makes it harder to trace IMO. Actual post sentance means nothing if you look over it.
Post 325: Basically says Enigma should kill every night.....
Post 339: Says lurker lynches are stupid and accuses Swinkee, Titus, and Pibblys (amusingly, the 3 with excuses) of lurking more than him. Again, FOS instead of vote.
Back to the EBWODP
EBWODP: Maybe the mafia are the ones lurking, and that's why people don't look very suspicious. That's probably wrong, though. Just speculating.
Now, this may be stating the obvious that lurkers don't look suspicious and tend to be mafia, but he contradicts it the instant that lurker becomes him.
Bean: There are 5 things in your posts that disturb me. - Your swap on position on lurking the instant you are called a lurker. - Your bandwagonning without looking like you are - Your comment about vig killing every night (might be n00bishness) - Your general lack of content. You are more or less lurking more then anyone else without an excuse, especially since 3 of your posts have been irrelevant to the game and one was only 2 words. - Your subtle hints to lynch Aurora and Az earlier on.
That is why I voted for you and why others should. Lynch > no lynch, and you are clearly the best target.
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case against armlx: summed up nicely by az, essentially over-aggressive and bases suspicions on feelings rather than logic. ambiguous at this stage. fos armlx
case against worthawholebean: lurker, behavior does not inspire confidence, responded badly to being called a lurker (incorrectly tried to shove suspicion onto other, excused low-posters)
in my opinion, that last point is probably the most damning - it's been said (numerous times) that we other low posters have an excuse for now; consequently, moving suspicion onto us as an excuse for lurking seems a bit like desperation. vote worthawholebean
I concur completely. Enigma91's post does seem to be trying to draw attention away from Gollum, and lynching an SK early would definitely help the town. FOS: Enigma91. I'm not going to vote yet, but we should definitely keep an eye on him.
Note how he tries to assert he was not band waggoning. Hmm....
Is against claiming townie or major role. Good idea.
Gollum thing rather irrelevant IMO.
On Page 15.
This is my main reason I've been suspicious of worthawholebean. The action just sorta seemed really scummy. Also, he has been lurking and pretty band-wagony the whole game. I guess I'll go VOTE: worthawholebean.
ok, after catching up on 5 pages of posts, I have to say that I don't think Boromir would be a mafia (not knowledge, just feeling). Even Gandalf and Galadriel were tempted by the ring, and both were important and powerful characters (also good characters).
FOS: armlx. He does seem scummy, but he doesn't seem to be playing any differently than from my other experiences with him (both as simply an out-of-game watcher and a player alongside). Now wothawholebean: Lurking without a valid reason: suspicious. Accusing those with valid reasons for not posting as much: suspicious. The suspicion of lurkers being mafia while being a lurker himself: suspicious, but more stupid, really. The Gollum thing: Vote: worthawholebean. armlx is being armlx. worthawholebean is being scummy. I'm still studying for exams ;). Much as I dislkie bandwagons, this one feels right.
Edit while previewing:
Quote from draygn_mage »
ok, after catching up on 5 pages of posts, I have to say that I don't think Boromir would be a mafia (not knowledge, just feeling). Even Gandalf and Galadriel were tempted by the ring, and both were important and powerful characters (also good characters).
Neither of them tried to take the ring from Frodo. I still think that Boromir is good, but may change if he gets the ring.
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REMINDER: Day 1 will end on Wednesday, June 15, at approxminatly 10:00 p.m. E.S.T. If no one has achieved a majority of the vote by the deadline, there will be NO LYNCH.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
@swinkee, I guess thats possible, I was just pointing out that Boromir wanted the ring to use for good (same as the others). Galndalf and Galadriel were just smart enough to resist at the last second. After all, what is harder, to take the ring from an unwilling person or to resist temptation when it is offered freely to you?
Have we decided that Boromir is good yet? or do we need another 4 pages about this?
As for worthawholebean, he is looking scummy, but not too scummy. Personally, i think that Deadly Budda is scum. I have no real evidence as of now, just a feeling.
I am begining to think that this day will end with no lynch. The mafia have no real reason to push for a vote. They can just let the day run out and no one will die. Then they get their kill tonight. Now that i have said this, they will start voting, or maybe not. Basically, im paranoid of everyone.
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For those who cant read my cryptic and often confusing writing, here is a second try.
I am NOT advocating no lynch, i just think that the day will end up there. We are going to have to get nine people to vote for one person or else it is no lynch. With the exception of worth and possibly armlx, there is almost no chance that we could lynch someone.
If we even do manage to lynch someone, it will most likely be done without much mafia help. They are not forced into voting as the day will end with no lynch, instead of the person with the most votes. Why would they risk exposing themselves if they could just get a free day out of it?
I would love to vote for deadly budda right now, but due to the fact that there is no way that he would ever get lynched today, im going to vote for the other person that is scummy vote armlx
i just know that i am going to get a couple of votes for this post.....
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Ok, I was getting a few twinges from Deadly Budah as well early on, so let's see if I can turn anything up.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
Plus, being a geriatric feeble old hobbit, he would hardly be in condition to choke any one.
Discounts the idea of Bilbo as SK, reasonably.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
All consuming paranoia tends to be a good tool for staying alive so I'm going to second the notion that Enigma has either advertently revealed himself as Gollum or made a rather suicidal role claim.
When he first made this allegation, that Enigma had revealed himself as Gollum, I was highly tempted to launch into a counter-attack.
There was little or no logic behind that move. The odds were 5-6x greater that he was mafia, not SK, and "all consuming paranoia" is hardly a valid reason to vote. The only reason I refrained from commenting was to try and gauge Enigma's reaction.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
The consensus at this point seems to point toward two small mafias. However, given the possability of multiple powered roles on our side, we may be looking at a far more slanted playing field. Possably each mafia could have as many as 4/5 players, putting the ratio at 1:3 without taking into acount any sk/vigilantes. We should keep in mind that this could have been desighned to be an uphill battle from the start.
Suggests that the mafias may be somewhat larger.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
If there is a 3:1 ratio, which is a posibility that should be considered, then at a rate of three kills per night it won't be long before we're out numbered.
...either that or maybe I'm just paranoid.
Cites paranoia once again, to support his fears of an uphill battle for the town.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
If it turns out to have been a missfire from a vig that would mean that there would only be one mafia of normal size.
Valid analysis.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
Wouldn't that just give Gollum a rather short check list for his alt win?
Points out a very valid flaw in the fellowship claiming plan.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
One out of seven now, the first night did not bode well for the fellowship...
Points out another strong disadvantage to fellowship claims.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
Maybe because, like you, they haven't read all 5 books? Anyways, all I know is what my paranoia tells me and it tells me this; One, in the books Gollum's motovation is to find the ring and aquire it throgh any means posable. Two, Frodo has the ring. Three, if Gollum were to kill Frodo he would have ample opurtunity to aquire the ring. We can infer from this that it would be flavorable and realistic win condition for Gollum, who is likely our sk/vigellante, to dispose of the ring bearer and take the precious. I have no idea wether or not the ring exists in game or not, but Axel's warrning about the corupting power of the ring makes it seem very likely that it is.
Defends the idea that Gollum's win condition is to find the ring, and kill Frodo.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
Incomptent vig or passable mafioso? Either way its bad for the town.
Vote: Enigma91
Vote enigma, for pretty clearly stated reasons. Although, incompetent vigging isn't a good reason to lynch, only suspicion of a scum role is a valid reason.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
If Enigma is scum, then having him watched would be a waste of resorces which would leave us vulnerable and exposed to the next mafia hit. This could just be a ploy to draw protection away from where its neaded.
Warns that locking doc protect on enigma would expose our other townies.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
It would definitly help to elevieate some paranoia. Noboddy wants a botched lynch at this point.
Supports the idea of enigma claiming, to avoid mis-lynching.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
Could have very well been Gimli.
Suggests Gimli as an alternative to boromir.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
We've been over this. Its a safe assumption that Gollum needs to kill Frodo to win.
Continues to support idea of an alt win condition for Gollum, based on flavor evidence.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
Hypothetical situation; You are given a remote. On this remote their is a big red button marked "possably blow up the whole freek'n world." Do you press the button?
What I'm trying to get at here is that it's just not worth the risk, we gain nothing from Frodo coming forward.
Makes a strong case against Frodo coming forward.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
Sal'right I guess I can unvote safely. Not to steel Puzzle's thunder or anything but if we can drop the Gollum issue for a moment, I think I have a moderatly less idiotic then normal plan. Without claiming or indicating your role, does it fit with that charecter's role as per the books?
In my case no.
Offers a fairly innocuous but possibly useful method of locking down players' claims.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
Aurorasparrow was one of the primary advocates for Enigma to come forward early on. He was also the one advocating for the fellowship to come forward. After Enigma so subtely revealed himself, Aurorasparrow was advocating for him to role claim. Most recently recently he has called for a deadline. All of his actions up to this point uppose the well being and success of the town.
Vote: Aurorasparrow
Votes aurora based on his suggestion of fellowship claiming, calling for a deadline, and supporting enigma early on.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
@Armlx: I have more posts in this thread then you, how exactly am I lurking?
Refutes the accusation that he is lurking.
Quote from Deadly Budah »
Please try and pay attention to the man in the claok. While your at it, seeming less like scum would realy help your case.
Suggests that DM not give up more information than is necessary.
Well, other than that post where he cites paranoia as a reason for suspecting Enigma as a SK, I'm pretty well satisfied by his performance so far. He's made some good judgments about the relative scumminess of players, and he knows a suicidal plan when he sees it.
Does anyone want me to claim? Would that help clear things up?
I don't think the case against you is very strong, but if you have a strong claim that would definitely help defuse the momentum against you, so we can start looking elsewhere. At this stage of things, when there's only a day left, that's probably your best move.
With the deadline an interesting question comes up; is it better to vote someone you don't really think is scum, just for the sake of getting a lynch and finding their identity?
I'd reveal now. If you can be auto-cleared we can keep looking to avoid the deadline.
A fairly desperate option: the dice function isn't enabled anymore on these forums is it? if we could agree to somehow choose someone to lynch randomly it might serve better than a no-lynch.
armlx> I think it would be better if you didn't claim.
In the interests of defusing this apparent deadlock:
unvote: armlx
vote: worthawholebean
...for the reasons already stated by numerous others.
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Hmm... looks like Azreal saved me some time tongiht. After looking at all of his posts, Deadly Budda no longer looks like the scum that i was thinking of. But im still watching him though.
[dice1] I hope this works
anyway, i dont think that we should use the dice. At least with bandwagons we can see who voted, when and for what reasons. The dice gives us none of these really.
To actually put some real pressure on some one Vote: worthawholebean,
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You've all made very good points, and while I still think armlx is playing like scum, after looking though his previous games it seems to be the way he usually plays. As such;
Unvote
Vote: worthawholebean
However, armlx may just be using this as his excuse to not even try to hid a spot of scuminess, so, we certainly can't let him off the hook.
FOS: armlx
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
REMINDER: Day 1 will end on Wednesday, June 15, at approxminatly 10:00 p.m. E.S.T. If no one has achieved a majority of the vote by the deadline, there will be NO LYNCH.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Rant at Axelrod about the needing a majority of votes to lynch someone: I think that you should change it to most votes gets lynched, otherwise there will be a good chance tommorow or the day after that the town misses a lynch. Don't expect this to change anything, but just my 2 cents. Even if nothing happens, I'm happy I got my point out. Really, Axel, I though you would want the town to win :).
Aurorasparrow: The debate of Lynch Someone You Don't Really Think Is Scummy vs. No Lynch has been resolved, I belive. Look at Rhinocrero's post FOSing Swinkee.
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PBPA of Fayul...or at least an attempt...never done it before.
Quote from Fayul »
Read: "I disagreed with you earlier, but when you thought it was suspicious now I completely agree with everything you say."
On Enigma's agreeing with the SK being Gollum after proposing the possibility of Bilbo as out SK. I think that Enigma's suggestion was relatively harmless and was just pumping more ideas into our conversation.
Quote from Fayul »
That's what Az just said: we more likely than not lose rules-wise of the total mafia > total town, but we likely lose in that situation, if the mafia isn't stupid.
Clarification.
Quote from Fayul »
Well, I believe that Axel said earlier that we had "Basic townie" roles in the game.
Calrification again.
Quote from Fayul »
Speculation: Possibly if the Ring is around, it's some sort of usable effect that can be stolen on death, but not a win condition? For instance: "Avoid 1 night kill", or "You turn to Mafia", or something else that would be in flavor with it.[quote]
I think that this is harmless speculation.
[QUOTE=Fayul]FOS: draygn_mage. He seems far too set on trying to convince everyone that the third kill was made by a vig, when we honestly just don't know yet.
I never thought that Draygn_Mage was too set on that and he never really pressed it that hard. And this was after the not so blatent hint by enigma.(to be fair i didn't see it either)
Quote from Fayul »
Either Enigma is a mafia pulling a roleclaim, or a vig that's a complete idiot. Either one is fully detrimental to the town, and, personally, I think he's shown no proof that he's the Vig.
Vote: Enigma91
I never liked the bandwagon on Enigma. The guy just claimed and then 4 votes go on him. He was the closest thing we had to a confirmed townie at that point (yes, I FOSed him....but with better reasoning. And how would he show proof that he's the vig? None of us have proof of our roles. I'm about 50% sure that there was one scum on that wagon.
Change vote: Azreal
Nice way to try to get someone modkilled. Honestly, I can't see Az missing a rule that big.
This another thing I never liked. Azrael suggested that Enigma post his role Pm. So? Anyone would have read the rule would know you can't. I think Enigma summed it up nicely:
Quote from Enigma91 »
He didn't miss it, he was checking to see if I was that blind to everything to prove my innocence, luckily I have common sense[quote]
Fayul replied:
[quote=Fayul]I don't care: No townsperson would be so careless with the life of someone who hadn't confirmed yet.[quote]
I'll come back to this one later.
[quote=Fayul]You know what they say: Assuming makes an ass out of u and Ming.
Anyway; Maybe I was a bit hasty on definitely accusing Azrael, but my vote for him stands. Trying to get a free kill, no matter how unlikely, is something to be very suspicious of.
Makes an overwrought joke. You were a bit hasty...but you're goning to keep your vote there? Me no like.
Quote from fayul »
Az, I know that it's unlikely he would have posted something. But being so risky about is dangerous and reeks of scum.
Was it funny? Sure, I guess. But this isn't a humor contest.
Read: "It's unlikely that he would have been killed but he could have been so you're scum."
Quote from Fayul »
FOS: Aurorasparrow
How do you know exactly what Gollum's targets are? We can't just be assuming things like this, unless you have some sort of knowledge we don't.[quote] I know what Gollum's tragets are. The fellowship. You didn't need to jump on AS that quickly.
[quote=Fayul]I honestly don't think it is. I mean, sure, it's plausible, but that doesn't make it definite fact.
Hell, we don't even know for sure (but we can very safely guess) that Gollum is in the game.
In response to someone saying that killing frodo is Gollum's win condition. Again how are we going to get these "definite facts"? But mostly harmless.
Quote from Fayul »
I will Unvote as well, since it has become clear that Azrael was making an joke. An ill-advised and dangerous one, for sure, but not one worth lynching over
Better late than never, I suppose.
Quote from fayul »
Vote: armlx
It's stupid to vote for someone who hasn't been counterclaimed. There are only 3 possibilities that would make Enigma be scum.
1. The real Boromir has not counterclaimed (In which case, he should absolutely do so right now.)
2. Boromir is not in this game (EXTRMELY unlikely: All the Fellowship members SHOULD be in the game.)
3. Boromir is actually a scum role. (Again: extremely unlikely. Boromir was good throught the whole story, and we good at the end. A momentary lapse in judgement due to the Ring's influence does not make one evil: Most humans would have done the same. If Boromir was scum I'd be ectremly, extremely surprised.)
Wait...this coming from a person who VOTED ENIGMA RIGHT AFTER HE CLAIMED!?!?!? Yes, armlx's vote is a bit random. But is there anything a more against him? And this is the second questionable (IMO) wagon you've jumped on.
Quote from Fayul »
You've all made very good points, and while I still think armlx is playing like scum, after looking though his previous games it seems to be the way he usually plays. As such;
Unvote
Vote: worthawholebean
However, armlx may just be using this as his excuse to not even try to hid a spot of scuminess, so, we certainly can't let him off the hook.
FOS: armlx
I never saw anything scummy about worthawholebean. Even after reading the PBPA
3 Questionable Bandwagons and a few contradictions keeps my FOS strongly on you although it seems any effort to save worthawholebean would be in vain. Go ahead and claim worthawholebean.. Might as well.
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I'm sorry, but my vote still stands. Claiming a generic role name like that eliminates the possibility of counter-claims, since even if there is another "Solider of Gondor" in the game, you could claim that the role was just duplicated, unless the ability is something unique.
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
UnFOS: Swinkee (I FOSed the wrong person. However, I won't FOS my original target, pibbly, as he has since explained himself better.
Unvote: worthawholebean. That's a valid claim IMO. Sounds like a role that could exist.
Vote: armlx. Most scummy person after worthawholebean. We don't want a "no lynch" result. We have approximately 27 hours left at the moment until lynch. armlx is the most valid target at the moment.
Also, how do you use the dice function if we end up doing that?
Id like to hear more from bateleur, before we act. but i will unvote worthawholebean. Im not going to vote for armlx just yet.
[*Dice=NumberOfDiceThrown]NumberofSides+Modifier[*/Dice] but we are not going to use that method. It provides us with no information, with such a poor chance of hitting a mafia, it is not worth it. Plus i already rolled for us, we are lynching enigma
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Id like to hear more from bateleur, before we act. but i will unvote worthawholebean. Im not going to vote for armlx just yet.
[*Dice=NumberOfDiceThrown]NumberofSides+Modifier[*/Dice] but we are not going to use that method. It provides us with no information, with such a poor chance of hitting a mafia, it is not worth it. Plus i already rolled for us, we are lynching enigma
I've never been a fan of a no lynch, the town needs as much information as possible, and until we actually lynch some people, other people's voting patterns become rather useless.
That said, I believe worthawholebean's claim. Well, the role name, I don't think that lynching him would be worth it.
REMINDER: Day 1 will end on Wednesday, June 15, at approxminatly 10:00 p.m. E.S.T. (approximately 24 hours from this post.) If no one has achieved a majority of the vote by the deadline, there will be NO LYNCH.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
i'm going to have to go with the rest of the town and unvote
i'd assume that soldier of gondor is a vanilla role? this presents a problem, as he has no check for his role - but, the case against him was hardly damning.
however, the case against armlx is weaker than the one against worthawholebean, so i wouldn't advise going after him next. also, a no-lynch is a bad thing.
Has done nothing in particular to set off scumdar. Not lurking atall. NOt particularly scummy.
Quote from Axelrod »
2. dazbog_eaterofsouls
34 posts
Has been doing some pretty good analysis so far. I somewhat doubt he's scum. The only thing that I find suspicious is his frevent defense of Azrael after his joke. Sure, we overreacted. However, his defence of "Well, anyone stupid enough to post their PM deserves to die" doesn't work for me. Just because the chances are low that enigma would post it doesn't mean that Azrael is innocent of trying to get him to do just that! Still, probably just over reaction on both sides.
Quote from Axelrod »
4. LJustus
10 posts
Hasn't posted much, as he works. Mainly posts to vote. Could go either way for scum; not enough info to tell.
Quote from Axelrod »
5. draygn_mage
15 posts
Pretty sure he's townie.
Quote from Axelrod »
6. Pibbly
11 posts
Lurking, but has a semi-valid excuse. Still, that's somewhat suspicious. Like LJustus, I don't really have enough info to say anything.
Quote from Axelrod »
7. Azrael
39 posts
Could go either way. However, he's certainly not a good lynch target today, as their's no real evidence he's scum and he's one of our best analysts. The only suspicious thing he's done is telling Enigma to post his PM. And that was probably just a joke.
Quote from Axelrod »
8. aurorasparrow
32 posts
Asked for a deadline (somewhat scummy). Has been getting somewhat defensive/aggressive with Azrael.
Quote from Axelrod »
9. SOS
24 posts
*elaborate shrug* meh. Not particularly scummy.
Quote from Axelrod »
10. Rhinocero
38 posts.
Damn this idiot looks scummy. VOTE: Rhin... nevermind.
Quote from Axelrod »
11. titus (replacing kpaca)
5 posts
Still getting up-to-date I assume. Not enough info to tell either way.
I believe his claim, although I can see how one wouldn't. Pretty sure he's townie.
Quote from Axelrod »
16. Deadly Budah
20 posts
See SOS
Quote from Axelrod »
18. worthawholebean
14 posts
I believe his roleclaim, but I wish he'd contribute more.
Quote from Axelrod »
19. swinkee
5 posts
Too little information to tell.
So, after all that, the people who look somewhat scummy to me are aurora, azrael (not very), and daz (not very). I really wish the lurkers would post more. I'm not very happy lynching any of them at the moment, though. So I don't know what to do.
vote Fayul for crappy logic. By claiming Soldier of Gondor (a decidedly minor role) and obviously getting it right (someone backed him up), he has pretty much proven that he is townie. No sure if this was a bad mafia ploy to try and lynch a townie close to deadline time or what, but this reeks.
Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
No one has really backed him up. I assume that he's making referance to Bateleur, but I don't see how he's confirmed anything. Howveer it's an OK claim. It doesn't seem overly suspicious. It's never great to have a vanilla claim when you're under duress. But some people have to be vanilla roles, right? And yet again, when someone makes a decent claim you remain convinved about lynching them. I'm sure you'd back down in die time like you have before. You all know why I'm suspicious of Fayul. I think he's a better lynch than anythign we have. Vote: Fayul
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"A little sincerity is a dangerous thing and a great deal of it is absolutely fatal."
From the brief of analysis of Fayul that was most helpfully posted by Dazbog earlier, it seems we have a newer, better, and scummier target than either bean or armlx. The voting evidence and sketchy reasoning against him seems fairly telling, given that it's only day one and he already has three rather sketchy votes to his credit. He seems to be very willing to bandwagon and change sides to fit the situation.
It's still a shot in the dark, but it's one I feel has a larger chance of success.
Anyway: My vote remains because, fundamentally, a lynch for the town is better than no lynch. If there is a more suspicious target, someone please point me to them: no-one has made any signifigant slip-ups yet.
Also, claiming "soldier of gondor" seems ten times more suspicious seeing as how Az, in post 283, mentioned it as a possible vanilla role. There are 3 options as to what happened:
1. Either Az was making a roleclaim for no reason, which I doubt someone of his ability would do, seeing as there was absolutely no reason for him to do it.
2. Az happened to make a random, wild guess as to a proper roleclaim. Highly unlikely.
3. Bean just stole some random thing off the thread that he hoped no-one would notice, and roleclaimed with it.
I think that 3 outweighs 2 and 1 in probability, but not by much. If Az can confirm that he is also a Soldier of Gondor, I'll back down on Bean. I'm relatively convinced that Az is town, and if soldier is a vanilla role, then there can't be much harm in claiming: It's not like you're revealing that you're a power role to the scum.
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
Anyway: My vote remains because, fundamentally, a lynch for the town is better than no lynch. If there is a more suspicious target, someone please point me to them: no-one has made any signifigant slip-ups yet.
Also, claiming "soldier of gondor" seems ten times more suspicious seeing as how Az, in post 283, mentioned it as a possible vanilla role. There are 3 options as to what happened:
1. Either Az was making a roleclaim for no reason, which I doubt someone of his ability would do, seeing as there was absolutely no reason for him to do it.
2. Az happened to make a random, wild guess as to a proper roleclaim. Highly unlikely.
3. Bean just stole some random thing off the thread that he hoped no-one would notice, and roleclaimed with it.
I think that 3 outweighs 2 and 1 in probability, but not by much. If Az can confirm that he is also a Soldier of Gondor, I'll back down on Bean. I'm relatively convinced that Az is town, and if soldier is a vanilla role, then there can't be much harm in claiming: It's not like you're revealing that you're a power role to the scum.
"Soldier of Gondor" is actually a phrase that appears in the books, or possibly within the movies, much like "Rider of Rohan", I believe.
Unless he's counter-claimed, I'd say it's a fairly solid role-claim.
As for myself, no, I'm not a Soldier of Gondor. If I was, I would have counter-claimed him as the likelihood of two such roles in the game is relatively low.
On Enigma's agreeing with the SK being Gollum after proposing the possibility of Bilbo as out SK. I think that Enigma's suggestion was relatively harmless and was just pumping more ideas into our conversation.
I was just stating that he had an opinion, but immdediately changed it under the lightesty scrutiny. More than anything, it was a simple quip.
I never liked the bandwagon on Enigma. The guy just claimed and then 4 votes go on him. He was the closest thing we had to a confirmed townie at that point (yes, I FOSed him....but with better reasoning. And how would he show proof that he's the vig? None of us have proof of our roles. I'm about 50% sure that there was one scum on that wagon.
It seemed like a random claim thrown out there under pressure. I'll admi: even with the facts I had at the time, the vote for Enigma was a mistake. It was something I made purely off intution: since I'm 99% sure there is a Boromir in the game, the lack of a counterclaim really helps enigma.
This another thing I never liked. Azrael suggested that Enigma post his role Pm. So? Anyone would have read the rule would know you can't.
The vast majority of people would have known that, sure, but there's always athe smallest chance that someone won't.
Also, this is the point where I'm beginning to second-guess my own vote for enigma, but was afraid of being called for straight-up flip-floppping.
Read: "It's unlikely that he would have been killed but he could have been so you're scum."
Exactly. What's so scummy about that?
I know what Gollum's tragets are. The fellowship. You didn't need to jump on AS that quickly. In response to someone saying that killing frodo is Gollum's win condition. Again how are we going to get these "definite facts"? But mostly harmless.
Okay, kids, get this into your heads: an FOS means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. I was simply advising everyone to keep an eye on sparrow since he was talking about absolutes on the subject of gollum. Is it likely that Frodo and such are his targets? Sure. But there is absolutely no reason to present that is the end-all be-all option, and have the town set on that when something else may be the case.
Wait...this coming from a person who VOTED ENIGMA RIGHT AFTER HE CLAIMED!?!?!? Yes, armlx's vote is a bit random. But is there anything a more against him? And this is the second questionable (IMO) wagon you've jumped on.
Again: I will admit that my vote for Enigma was a complete and absolute mistake. Especially given the time that the real Boromir, assuming he exists, had to counterclaim, this is a very scummy vote, trying to revive an almost-dead bandwagon.
I never saw anything scummy about worthawholebean. Even after reading the PBPA
At this point, we're just hoping for a lynch, as, again, it's better than no lynch. wawb was, at the time, the biggest lurker with no excuse, and he had nothing that, in my mind, looked like it shouted "not scum". We are close enough to the deadline that our objective isn't "Lynch someone that is scum", but "Don't lynch someone that isn't."
To Azrael: I didn't read the books thoroughly, I only know the basic gist of the plot, so I wouldn't know if "soldier of Gondor" would be mentioned at some point.
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
frown. I keep trying to reread daz's ppba of fayul and getting distracted by the tag errors.
Alright, got through it. (It seems like most of the really important areas were the most messed up. double frown) Fayul seems to be under pressure for three main reasons: a) his early pressure on Enigma after engima withdrew some speculation, b) his bandwagoning on Enigma later on, and c) his vote on Az for his "joke". c) they might not have known it
His responses: a) nothing really. Not very good refutation. b) Basically, just a whim that he now admits was a mistake c) my thoughts on this are in another post I made.
My thoughts: a) makes him look somewhat scummy. Explanation isn't very good; shows he's pretty aggressive. b) I can see his explanation; however, combined with a), holds less water. This is the biggest thing for me; either it was a bit of a slip or he's pretty much definitely scum. C) my thoughts from another post: Basically,
Quote from some really rad dude »
Sure, we overreacted. However, his defence of "Well, anyone stupid enough to post their PM deserves to die" doesn't work for me. Just because the chances are low that enigma would post it doesn't mean that Azrael is innocent of trying to get him to do just that! Still, probably just over reaction on both sides.
So he's looking pretty scummy atm, but I'm still not sure I'm comfortable lynching him. If no better targets present themselves, then sure.
We have approximately 20.5 hours until deadline. I will be on again, don't worry.
Bed now.
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Unvote
Vote Swinkee
Also, since he is the second most lurky
FOS worthawholebean
Which doesn't make sense as he's just joined the game recently. That means that if were to lurker vote, our best choices would be LJustus (who posts very infrequently, mainly only to vote when his suspicions have been riled up) and worthawholebean (who at first and to a lesser extent now has been giving me a bit of a scum vibe; however,my scumdar isn't very well tuned, and he's been posting more recently) so no lurker votes ATM. That leaves armlx as the most suspicious person on the field, and I don't think he's very scummy. Other suspicions have been cast mainly on aurorasparrow, but again, he doesn't seem like a good lynch target. So I got nothin.
PPE @ armlx - Swinkee's been studying. That actually makes you look a bit more scummy... not too bad in my eyes, but the best lynch target at the present time.
If he doesn't have acess to internet then he can't post, he has made an effort to post though so I wouldn't count him as a lurker
Unvote
Vote worthawholebean
On LJustus, I will say something similiar to what I said about myself. He always has a low post count and acts like this.
SOS: can you show me how to do that? I keep on forgetting how (the post count thing).
a lynch is a lot better than a no-lynch. it looks presently like the most likely candidates are armlx or a lurker. I have a feeling armlx is good, but not anything distinct.
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Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
Titus: Just joined and needs time to catch up.
Pibbly: On vacation.
Swinkee: Studying.
Ljustus: Works (I know this from the other games we've been in)
That leaves you as the next target. And the way you are reacting doesn't bode well for you.
Day one lurker lynches or me lynches tend to be the way to go arounds here. The one exception was Shaman Mafia.
Suggests a two mafia setup, which was the most sensible conclusion given the information at hand. The balrog suggestion not so much, but that's just testing knowledge of the books.
Support's Az's analysis.
FOSes Enigma for planting his none-too-subtle hint.
Votes SOS, citing vague feelings of scumminess.
Votes Enigma as a suspected SK trying to dodge the pressure on him.
Shares info, unvotes enigma, supports the idea that he's a claimed vig.
Attempts to lurker vote.
Shares info.
Supports aurorasparrow, and votes against Pibbly in response, and also due to lurking.
FOSes Deadly budah for similar reasons.
Changes his mind and cites his old suspicions returning, and votes Enigma. Also alleges that a mis-firing vig is a detriment to the town, and that he's trying to play the n00b card to clear himself.
Suggests that Boromir himself might be a mafia agent (a dubious theory, at best).
Reiterates his belief that enigma is scum.
True, watching for behavioral changes is a good tactic, and lynching people like Stevie or Armlx on day one can become a pitfall. Still, lynching persons who consistently act scummy can pay off by either hitting scum, or by motivating them to become better, stronger townspeople.
Offers his view of our possibilites for Enigma. Personally, I think he's missing a few, but whatever.
Lurker votes and lurker FOSes.
Continues lurker campaign.
In conclusion, I think armlx's behavior this time around is mostly a result of his relying on feelings and intuition over evidence and logic. That's probably the cause most of the time, actually, but I think it holds true here. I'd personally want some more evidence before starting a campaign against him.
Instead, if anyone else can think of alternatives, or scrounge up random posts they believe are scummy, or draw up some new and different cases, we might be able to get something going here before our time's up. I agree that lynching someone is still our best plan, but let's try and at least make a concerted effort to find a well-supported, intelligent choice.
Standard Enigma Wagon. Note that he joined the game later at page 3.
Post 125: Confused about Enigma's claim. Not really relevant, but seems as though he has been reading the content. 6 pages after last post.
Note how he tries to assert he was not band waggoning. Hmm....
Is against claiming townie or major role. Good idea.
Gollum thing rather irrelevant IMO.
On Page 15.
Page 16: Says role matches ability.
Page 17: Seems to hint Azrael is being hypocritical (at least IMO) because Az said he was against the claims but still claimed. Assumes roles match books.
Page 18: Looks for someone to lynch. Standard what everyone was trying to do.
Something strikes me odd from this post. There is nothing wrong with Aurora's statement, yet he tries to twist it to say something incriminating.
Tries to say Gollum might be innocent. Prolly just spec.
I'll get to the EBWODP later.
Said in regards to my "I always act this way" post. Again, only FOS'es instead of voting on a band wagon. Makes it harder to trace IMO. Actual post sentance means nothing if you look over it.
Post 325: Basically says Enigma should kill every night.....
Post 339: Says lurker lynches are stupid and accuses Swinkee, Titus, and Pibblys (amusingly, the 3 with excuses) of lurking more than him. Again, FOS instead of vote.
Back to the EBWODP
Now, this may be stating the obvious that lurkers don't look suspicious and tend to be mafia, but he contradicts it the instant that lurker becomes him.
Bean: There are 5 things in your posts that disturb me.
- Your swap on position on lurking the instant you are called a lurker.
- Your bandwagonning without looking like you are
- Your comment about vig killing every night (might be n00bishness)
- Your general lack of content. You are more or less lurking more then anyone else without an excuse, especially since 3 of your posts have been irrelevant to the game and one was only 2 words.
- Your subtle hints to lynch Aurora and Az earlier on.
That is why I voted for you and why others should. Lynch > no lynch, and you are clearly the best target.
case against worthawholebean: lurker, behavior does not inspire confidence, responded badly to being called a lurker (incorrectly tried to shove suspicion onto other, excused low-posters)
in my opinion, that last point is probably the most damning - it's been said (numerous times) that we other low posters have an excuse for now; consequently, moving suspicion onto us as an excuse for lurking seems a bit like desperation. vote worthawholebean
This is my main reason I've been suspicious of worthawholebean. The action just sorta seemed really scummy. Also, he has been lurking and pretty band-wagony the whole game. I guess I'll go VOTE: worthawholebean.
Edit while previewing: Neither of them tried to take the ring from Frodo. I still think that Boromir is good, but may change if he gets the ring.
Proud worshipper of TFE.
Fayul - 1 (aurorasparrow)
aurorasparrow - 2 (Deadly Budah, LJustus)
armlx - 3 (god child, Fayul, bateleur)
worthawholebean - 5 (armlx, titus, Rhinocero, swinkee, SOS)
With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.
REMINDER: Day 1 will end on Wednesday, June 15, at approxminatly 10:00 p.m. E.S.T. If no one has achieved a majority of the vote by the deadline, there will be NO LYNCH.
As for worthawholebean, he is looking scummy, but not too scummy. Personally, i think that Deadly Budda is scum. I have no real evidence as of now, just a feeling.
I am begining to think that this day will end with no lynch. The mafia have no real reason to push for a vote. They can just let the day run out and no one will die. Then they get their kill tonight. Now that i have said this, they will start voting, or maybe not. Basically, im paranoid of everyone.
I do think Boromir is a townie role, but I can see how others would think differently.
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I am NOT advocating no lynch, i just think that the day will end up there. We are going to have to get nine people to vote for one person or else it is no lynch. With the exception of worth and possibly armlx, there is almost no chance that we could lynch someone.
If we even do manage to lynch someone, it will most likely be done without much mafia help. They are not forced into voting as the day will end with no lynch, instead of the person with the most votes. Why would they risk exposing themselves if they could just get a free day out of it?
I would love to vote for deadly budda right now, but due to the fact that there is no way that he would ever get lynched today, im going to vote for the other person that is scummy vote armlx
i just know that i am going to get a couple of votes for this post.....
Discounts the idea of Bilbo as SK, reasonably.
When he first made this allegation, that Enigma had revealed himself as Gollum, I was highly tempted to launch into a counter-attack.
There was little or no logic behind that move. The odds were 5-6x greater that he was mafia, not SK, and "all consuming paranoia" is hardly a valid reason to vote. The only reason I refrained from commenting was to try and gauge Enigma's reaction.
Suggests that the mafias may be somewhat larger.
Cites paranoia once again, to support his fears of an uphill battle for the town.
Valid analysis.
Points out a very valid flaw in the fellowship claiming plan.
Points out another strong disadvantage to fellowship claims.
Defends the idea that Gollum's win condition is to find the ring, and kill Frodo.
Vote enigma, for pretty clearly stated reasons. Although, incompetent vigging isn't a good reason to lynch, only suspicion of a scum role is a valid reason.
Warns that locking doc protect on enigma would expose our other townies.
Supports the idea of enigma claiming, to avoid mis-lynching.
Suggests Gimli as an alternative to boromir.
Continues to support idea of an alt win condition for Gollum, based on flavor evidence.
Makes a strong case against Frodo coming forward.
Offers a fairly innocuous but possibly useful method of locking down players' claims.
Votes aurora based on his suggestion of fellowship claiming, calling for a deadline, and supporting enigma early on.
Refutes the accusation that he is lurking.
Suggests that DM not give up more information than is necessary.
Well, other than that post where he cites paranoia as a reason for suspecting Enigma as a SK, I'm pretty well satisfied by his performance so far. He's made some good judgments about the relative scumminess of players, and he knows a suicidal plan when he sees it.
I don't think the case against you is very strong, but if you have a strong claim that would definitely help defuse the momentum against you, so we can start looking elsewhere. At this stage of things, when there's only a day left, that's probably your best move.
I'd reveal now. If you can be auto-cleared we can keep looking to avoid the deadline.
A fairly desperate option: the dice function isn't enabled anymore on these forums is it? if we could agree to somehow choose someone to lynch randomly it might serve better than a no-lynch.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
armlx> I think it would be better if you didn't claim.
In the interests of defusing this apparent deadlock:
unvote: armlx
vote: worthawholebean
...for the reasons already stated by numerous others.
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
[dice1] I hope this works
anyway, i dont think that we should use the dice. At least with bandwagons we can see who voted, when and for what reasons. The dice gives us none of these really.
To actually put some real pressure on some one Vote: worthawholebean,
Unvote
Vote: worthawholebean
However, armlx may just be using this as his excuse to not even try to hid a spot of scuminess, so, we certainly can't let him off the hook.
FOS: armlx
Fayul - 1 (aurorasparrow)
aurorasparrow - 2 (Deadly Budah, LJustus)
armlx - 1 (god child)
worthawholebean - 8 (armlx, titus, Rhinocero, swinkee, SOS, bateleur, Pibbly, Fayul)
With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.
REMINDER: Day 1 will end on Wednesday, June 15, at approxminatly 10:00 p.m. E.S.T. If no one has achieved a majority of the vote by the deadline, there will be NO LYNCH.
Aurorasparrow: The debate of Lynch Someone You Don't Really Think Is Scummy vs. No Lynch has been resolved, I belive. Look at Rhinocrero's post FOSing Swinkee.
On Enigma's agreeing with the SK being Gollum after proposing the possibility of Bilbo as out SK. I think that Enigma's suggestion was relatively harmless and was just pumping more ideas into our conversation.
Clarification.
Calrification again.
I never thought that Draygn_Mage was too set on that and he never really pressed it that hard. And this was after the not so blatent hint by enigma.(to be fair i didn't see it either)
I never liked the bandwagon on Enigma. The guy just claimed and then 4 votes go on him. He was the closest thing we had to a confirmed townie at that point (yes, I FOSed him....but with better reasoning. And how would he show proof that he's the vig? None of us have proof of our roles. I'm about 50% sure that there was one scum on that wagon.
This another thing I never liked. Azrael suggested that Enigma post his role Pm. So? Anyone would have read the rule would know you can't. I think Enigma summed it up nicely:
Makes an overwrought joke. You were a bit hasty...but you're goning to keep your vote there? Me no like.
Read: "It's unlikely that he would have been killed but he could have been so you're scum."
In response to someone saying that killing frodo is Gollum's win condition. Again how are we going to get these "definite facts"? But mostly harmless.
Better late than never, I suppose.
Wait...this coming from a person who VOTED ENIGMA RIGHT AFTER HE CLAIMED!?!?!? Yes, armlx's vote is a bit random. But is there anything a more against him? And this is the second questionable (IMO) wagon you've jumped on.
I never saw anything scummy about worthawholebean. Even after reading the PBPA
3 Questionable Bandwagons and a few contradictions keeps my FOS strongly on you although it seems any effort to save worthawholebean would be in vain. Go ahead and claim worthawholebean.. Might as well.
EBWODP: damn...try and sort through that one.
Unvote: worthawholebean
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
If not, I'd like something more specific.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
Unvote: worthawholebean. That's a valid claim IMO. Sounds like a role that could exist.
Vote: armlx. Most scummy person after worthawholebean. We don't want a "no lynch" result. We have approximately 27 hours left at the moment until lynch. armlx is the most valid target at the moment.
Also, how do you use the dice function if we end up doing that?
[*Dice=NumberOfDiceThrown]NumberofSides+Modifier[*/Dice] but we are not going to use that method. It provides us with no information, with such a poor chance of hitting a mafia, it is not worth it. Plus i already rolled for us, we are lynching enigma
So like [dice1]? Moh well.
That said, I believe worthawholebean's claim. Well, the role name, I don't think that lynching him would be worth it.
Fayul - 1 (aurorasparrow)
aurorasparrow - 2 (Deadly Budah, LJustus)
armlx - 2 (god child, Rhinocero)
worthawholebean - 5 (armlx, titus, swinkee, SOS, Fayul)
With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.
REMINDER: Day 1 will end on Wednesday, June 15, at approxminatly 10:00 p.m. E.S.T. (approximately 24 hours from this post.) If no one has achieved a majority of the vote by the deadline, there will be NO LYNCH.
i'd assume that soldier of gondor is a vanilla role? this presents a problem, as he has no check for his role - but, the case against him was hardly damning.
however, the case against armlx is weaker than the one against worthawholebean, so i wouldn't advise going after him next. also, a no-lynch is a bad thing.
23 posts
Has done nothing in particular to set off scumdar. Not lurking atall. NOt particularly scummy.
34 posts
Has been doing some pretty good analysis so far. I somewhat doubt he's scum. The only thing that I find suspicious is his frevent defense of Azrael after his joke. Sure, we overreacted. However, his defence of "Well, anyone stupid enough to post their PM deserves to die" doesn't work for me. Just because the chances are low that enigma would post it doesn't mean that Azrael is innocent of trying to get him to do just that! Still, probably just over reaction on both sides.
10 posts
Hasn't posted much, as he works. Mainly posts to vote. Could go either way for scum; not enough info to tell.
15 posts
Pretty sure he's townie.
11 posts
Lurking, but has a semi-valid excuse. Still, that's somewhat suspicious. Like LJustus, I don't really have enough info to say anything.
39 posts
Could go either way. However, he's certainly not a good lynch target today, as their's no real evidence he's scum and he's one of our best analysts. The only suspicious thing he's done is telling Enigma to post his PM. And that was probably just a joke.
32 posts
Asked for a deadline (somewhat scummy). Has been getting somewhat defensive/aggressive with Azrael.
24 posts
*elaborate shrug* meh. Not particularly scummy.
38 posts.
Damn this idiot looks scummy. VOTE: Rhin... nevermind.
5 posts
Still getting up-to-date I assume. Not enough info to tell either way.
16 posts
See SOS
20 posts
See SOS
23 posts
Looks.. somewhat scummy. Actually.. looking back... UNVOTE: armlx. Hasn't really done that much.
28 posts
I believe his claim, although I can see how one wouldn't. Pretty sure he's townie.
20 posts
See SOS
14 posts
I believe his roleclaim, but I wish he'd contribute more.
5 posts
Too little information to tell.
So, after all that, the people who look somewhat scummy to me are aurora, azrael (not very), and daz (not very). I really wish the lurkers would post more. I'm not very happy lynching any of them at the moment, though. So I don't know what to do.
It's still a shot in the dark, but it's one I feel has a larger chance of success.
Vote Fayul.
Anyway: My vote remains because, fundamentally, a lynch for the town is better than no lynch. If there is a more suspicious target, someone please point me to them: no-one has made any signifigant slip-ups yet.
Also, claiming "soldier of gondor" seems ten times more suspicious seeing as how Az, in post 283, mentioned it as a possible vanilla role. There are 3 options as to what happened:
1. Either Az was making a roleclaim for no reason, which I doubt someone of his ability would do, seeing as there was absolutely no reason for him to do it.
2. Az happened to make a random, wild guess as to a proper roleclaim. Highly unlikely.
3. Bean just stole some random thing off the thread that he hoped no-one would notice, and roleclaimed with it.
I think that 3 outweighs 2 and 1 in probability, but not by much. If Az can confirm that he is also a Soldier of Gondor, I'll back down on Bean. I'm relatively convinced that Az is town, and if soldier is a vanilla role, then there can't be much harm in claiming: It's not like you're revealing that you're a power role to the scum.
unvote fayul, vote rhino. im not going to redo it, but there are a lot of attacking and piggyback attacking going on.
and this isn't just because he said i look kinda scummy.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
"Soldier of Gondor" is actually a phrase that appears in the books, or possibly within the movies, much like "Rider of Rohan", I believe.
Unless he's counter-claimed, I'd say it's a fairly solid role-claim.
As for myself, no, I'm not a Soldier of Gondor. If I was, I would have counter-claimed him as the likelihood of two such roles in the game is relatively low.
BTW, any response to the PBPA by Dazbog?
I was just stating that he had an opinion, but immdediately changed it under the lightesty scrutiny. More than anything, it was a simple quip.
It seemed like a random claim thrown out there under pressure. I'll admi: even with the facts I had at the time, the vote for Enigma was a mistake. It was something I made purely off intution: since I'm 99% sure there is a Boromir in the game, the lack of a counterclaim really helps enigma.
The vast majority of people would have known that, sure, but there's always athe smallest chance that someone won't.
Also, this is the point where I'm beginning to second-guess my own vote for enigma, but was afraid of being called for straight-up flip-floppping.
Exactly. What's so scummy about that?
Okay, kids, get this into your heads: an FOS means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. I was simply advising everyone to keep an eye on sparrow since he was talking about absolutes on the subject of gollum. Is it likely that Frodo and such are his targets? Sure. But there is absolutely no reason to present that is the end-all be-all option, and have the town set on that when something else may be the case.
Again: I will admit that my vote for Enigma was a complete and absolute mistake. Especially given the time that the real Boromir, assuming he exists, had to counterclaim, this is a very scummy vote, trying to revive an almost-dead bandwagon.
At this point, we're just hoping for a lynch, as, again, it's better than no lynch. wawb was, at the time, the biggest lurker with no excuse, and he had nothing that, in my mind, looked like it shouted "not scum". We are close enough to the deadline that our objective isn't "Lynch someone that is scum", but "Don't lynch someone that isn't."
To Azrael: I didn't read the books thoroughly, I only know the basic gist of the plot, so I wouldn't know if "soldier of Gondor" would be mentioned at some point.
which, im guessing, also exists but only in the singular sense (so dont even try it mafia). so much for my merry/pippin theory.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
Alright, got through it. (It seems like most of the really important areas were the most messed up. double frown) Fayul seems to be under pressure for three main reasons: a) his early pressure on Enigma after engima withdrew some speculation, b) his bandwagoning on Enigma later on, and c) his vote on Az for his "joke". c) they might not have known it
His responses: a) nothing really. Not very good refutation. b) Basically, just a whim that he now admits was a mistake c) my thoughts on this are in another post I made.
My thoughts: a) makes him look somewhat scummy. Explanation isn't very good; shows he's pretty aggressive. b) I can see his explanation; however, combined with a), holds less water. This is the biggest thing for me; either it was a bit of a slip or he's pretty much definitely scum. C) my thoughts from another post: Basically,
So he's looking pretty scummy atm, but I'm still not sure I'm comfortable lynching him. If no better targets present themselves, then sure.
We have approximately 20.5 hours until deadline. I will be on again, don't worry.
Bed now.