The title is pretty self explanatory. Do you think that in the near future, optical disks and drives will be rendered obsolete? This includes CD, DVD, HD-DVD, Blu-Ray DVD and any other optical drives / disks that you can think of (for short I"m just going to say DVD to mean any kind of optical disk / drive). I would like to suggest that in future, DVDs will be replaced completely by flash disk technology (think, small USB drives). That is to say that in future, when the new Tarantino movie is released on home video, you're not going to buy it on DVD but you're going to buy it on a USB drive. (Actually, in all probability you're going to buy it digitally and download it - but that's a different topic of discussion. This discussion is about physical media and which will be the preferred physical medium of the future - USB drives or DVDs).
I mean, the reasons for switching to USB technology seems pretty obvious to me. DVDs just plain suck. Not only DVDs but also DVD players. The technology they're based on is simply just too finicky. Any number of minor obstacles will get in the way of DVDs. The disk first of all is quite prone to damage (scratches, etc.) and so too is the optical reader (the drive). I've had soo many frustrating experiences with DVDs jumping, skipping, not playing, etc. etc. And I think that USB based flash drive technology is objectively better.
The main argument I can see against what I'm suggesting is that flash drive technology is much more costly to produce than DVDs. I think DVDs must cost like 1 cent each or something like that to produce whereas flash drives are much more expensive. But aren't those costs pretty much coming down too? Couldn't they be produced nearly as cheaply as disks?
And some evidence that I may be wrong can be seen in the fact that the industry is actually moving in the opposite direction to what I am suggesting. I mean that they are developing newer and newer optical technologies rather than trying to switch.
EDIT: The more I think about this issue, the more I think that physical media altogether will become completely obsolete for the purposes of content distribution (including both DVDs and USB drives). I think that content will be distributed mostly over the internet.
Ok, CDs are only one aspect of the issue. If you consider all the optical technology that is currently in use, the CD is the oldest form of that technology and obviously it will be the first to go. I'm asking if even the newer forms of optical technology (DVDs, HD-DVDs, Blu-Ray DVDs etc.) are going to be phased out.
This will depend on decisions such as: What will be the physical media used in the next generation of gaming consoles (Playstation 4, etc.)
Because it is these factors that can decide the question one way or the other.
Well, we already have the Macbook Air, which has no disk drive.
Presumably if everything can be downloaded digitally, then there will be no need for such things.
But the real question isn't whether or not we would have technology to replace it so much as whether or not people want there to be no more DVDs or CDs or what-have-you.
It really depends on the eventual percentage of households with broadband access and data caps on bandwidth. We've already begun to see a shift towards digital distribution, both with movies (NetFlix) and software (Steam). If broadband access becomes ubiquitous and data caps are very generous (or nonexistent) then people will move to what is convenient.
However, if data caps become the norm and are constricting then consumers will continue to look at disc-based mediums for content delivery.
I think a better question should be what sort of obligation do content providers and bandwidth operators have to reduce the waste that comes with disc-based content delivery systems?
I was under the impression that we were all as consumers boycotting whatever came after Blue Ray so that we don't have to buy our whole collections agains and again and again. I was told by memo from the cool kids that we would force the market to adjust to our whims by simply refusing to buy "the next big thing".
I mean, you know how long I had to wait for Big Trouble in Little China to come out on DVD?
DVD's and disk drives are not perfect, but damnit, I don't want to have to buy my library again on some other format. I'm already seeing the death of my dvd player in a few years
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Thanks to Xenphire @ Inkfox for the amazing new sig
“Thus strangely are our souls constructed, and by slight ligaments
are we bound to prosperity and ruin.”
― Mary Shelley, Frankenstein
I'm not sure why PC games/software aren't distributed on flash media already. It seems like it would be cheeper to produce than DVD's. The game would then have its own "token" so to speak so you could authenticate new users.
My dad still has his VHS player but his tapes are getting old. I need to get him a capture card for Christmas so I can rip them to files. (I also wanted to montage out his "favorite" clips which is why the tapes are so busted).
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Out of the blackness and stench of the engulfing swamp emerged a shimmering figure. Only the splattered armor and ichor-stained sword hinted at the unfathomable evil the knight had just laid waste.
I'm not sure why PC games/software aren't distributed on flash media already. It seems like it would be cheeper to produce than DVD's. The game would then have its own "token" so to speak so you could authenticate new users.
My dad still has his VHS player but his tapes are getting old. I need to get him a capture card for Christmas so I can rip them to files. (I also wanted to montage out his "favorite" clips which is why the tapes are so busted).
No games that I know of do this, but there is software that is sold in this fashion. Autodesk is sold with a USB key that actually contains the unlock data for the software itself. You download the majority of the software from their servers, and then activate it with the USB key. Just don't lose the USB key, because the software will not work without it. The EXE file look's straight to the Key for it's startup data.
That software cost's in the thousands though, so fancy stuff like that is expected. I see more game manufacturers looking towards the steam model and the Playstation Network model before implementing anything Physical. Bandwidth is cheaper than distributable haardware in any form. They already have to have the servers to operate those networks anyways so the framework is already there.
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Legacy Decks
~~~~~~~~~
Too many to list efficiently. Find me online with the same SN if you want to play, or message me here to set up a time to play.
Modern
~~~~~~~~~
Whatever pile of 75 I throw together the night before without testing. Usually: :symb::symu::symg:
Ok, so, I apologize for my original post being so unclear. But I did not intend for this debate to be along the lines of "Physical Media vs. Internet Media."
Rather, it was supposed to be a debate within physical media. Which is the physical medium of the future:
"Optical Drives vs. Flash Drives"
Like I said before, I think one of the most important factors that will throw light on this debate one way or the other will be the decision made by the next generation of gaming consoles and what medium they choose to use.
If Playstation 4 and the next Xbox decide to stick with optical drives, then we won't witness their death for another 6 years at least. Otherwise, they could die out sooner.
Unless the cost to produce a flash drive drops closer to producing an optical disc then flash drives just won't be the medium of choice for software distribution. In addition, typical USB 2.0 transfer rates are around 2/3 of Blu-Ray rates which definitely affects the choice of medium. Today's video games have very large textures which already load slowly off of discs (hence why many PS3 games have an "install" step where textures are written to the internal hard drive before you get a chance to play). If USB 3.0 becomes more mainstream then the transfer rate no longer becomes an issue.
Optical media eventually replaced magnetic media (tapes, cassettes) when optical media and drives became cheap enough. CD burners used to cost as much as a desktop and blank CDs used to be like $20 each.
When Flash drives become cheap enough, sure, it might replace optical media. It depends on how technology evolves.
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"Sometimes, the situation is outracing a threat, sometimes it's ignoring it, and sometimes it involves sideboarding in 4x Hope//Pray." --Doug Linn
What is decreasing optical media use is digital broadband distribution of information.
Over time, information that you actually need to physically carry with you will tend to be information that requires absolute security and integrity. Many different forms of media may serve this purpose. Encrypted optical media can fill the security part, but the integrity part I'm not sure. And the portability is an issue.
I envision that people will carry some form of smart memory chip/device everywhere with them, linked to their own RFID or something to keep it married to them alone.
As the ability to secure VPN over public networks becomes more and more turnkey, the actual need to physically carry large amounts of information will become less and less I believe.
Also, optical media may become holographic and not have the same physical shape as modern disks.
I think Hard Drives might be next, since prices go up on them and the gaming
from The Steam Client eats up memory and space off of the Toshiba Hard Drives.
Plus, the Disney Avengers photo looks great, which could be the next Disney
The Incredibles 2 Video.
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(osieorb18):
Warning for necroing.
I mean, the reasons for switching to USB technology seems pretty obvious to me. DVDs just plain suck. Not only DVDs but also DVD players. The technology they're based on is simply just too finicky. Any number of minor obstacles will get in the way of DVDs. The disk first of all is quite prone to damage (scratches, etc.) and so too is the optical reader (the drive). I've had soo many frustrating experiences with DVDs jumping, skipping, not playing, etc. etc. And I think that USB based flash drive technology is objectively better.
The main argument I can see against what I'm suggesting is that flash drive technology is much more costly to produce than DVDs. I think DVDs must cost like 1 cent each or something like that to produce whereas flash drives are much more expensive. But aren't those costs pretty much coming down too? Couldn't they be produced nearly as cheaply as disks?
And some evidence that I may be wrong can be seen in the fact that the industry is actually moving in the opposite direction to what I am suggesting. I mean that they are developing newer and newer optical technologies rather than trying to switch.
EDIT: The more I think about this issue, the more I think that physical media altogether will become completely obsolete for the purposes of content distribution (including both DVDs and USB drives). I think that content will be distributed mostly over the internet.
BRG Loam Control (Assault - Loam) BRG
W Mono White Control (Martyr - Proc) W
This will depend on decisions such as: What will be the physical media used in the next generation of gaming consoles (Playstation 4, etc.)
Because it is these factors that can decide the question one way or the other.
BRG Loam Control (Assault - Loam) BRG
W Mono White Control (Martyr - Proc) W
Presumably if everything can be downloaded digitally, then there will be no need for such things.
But the real question isn't whether or not we would have technology to replace it so much as whether or not people want there to be no more DVDs or CDs or what-have-you.
However, if data caps become the norm and are constricting then consumers will continue to look at disc-based mediums for content delivery.
I think a better question should be what sort of obligation do content providers and bandwidth operators have to reduce the waste that comes with disc-based content delivery systems?
[card=Jace Beleren]Jace[/card] = Jace
Magic CompRules
Scry Rollover Popups for Google Chrome
The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
I mean, you know how long I had to wait for Big Trouble in Little China to come out on DVD?
DVD's and disk drives are not perfect, but damnit, I don't want to have to buy my library again on some other format. I'm already seeing the death of my dvd player in a few years
Thanks to Xenphire @ Inkfox for the amazing new sig
“Thus strangely are our souls constructed, and by slight ligaments
are we bound to prosperity and ruin.”
― Mary Shelley, Frankenstein
My dad still has his VHS player but his tapes are getting old. I need to get him a capture card for Christmas so I can rip them to files. (I also wanted to montage out his "favorite" clips which is why the tapes are so busted).
No games that I know of do this, but there is software that is sold in this fashion. Autodesk is sold with a USB key that actually contains the unlock data for the software itself. You download the majority of the software from their servers, and then activate it with the USB key. Just don't lose the USB key, because the software will not work without it. The EXE file look's straight to the Key for it's startup data.
That software cost's in the thousands though, so fancy stuff like that is expected. I see more game manufacturers looking towards the steam model and the Playstation Network model before implementing anything Physical. Bandwidth is cheaper than distributable haardware in any form. They already have to have the servers to operate those networks anyways so the framework is already there.
~~~~~~~~~
Too many to list efficiently. Find me online with the same SN if you want to play, or message me here to set up a time to play.
Modern
~~~~~~~~~
Whatever pile of 75 I throw together the night before without testing. Usually: :symb::symu::symg:
Rather, it was supposed to be a debate within physical media. Which is the physical medium of the future:
"Optical Drives vs. Flash Drives"
Like I said before, I think one of the most important factors that will throw light on this debate one way or the other will be the decision made by the next generation of gaming consoles and what medium they choose to use.
If Playstation 4 and the next Xbox decide to stick with optical drives, then we won't witness their death for another 6 years at least. Otherwise, they could die out sooner.
BRG Loam Control (Assault - Loam) BRG
W Mono White Control (Martyr - Proc) W
[card=Jace Beleren]Jace[/card] = Jace
Magic CompRules
Scry Rollover Popups for Google Chrome
The first rule of Cursecatcher is, You do not talk about Cursecatcher.
Optical media eventually replaced magnetic media (tapes, cassettes) when optical media and drives became cheap enough. CD burners used to cost as much as a desktop and blank CDs used to be like $20 each.
When Flash drives become cheap enough, sure, it might replace optical media. It depends on how technology evolves.
"Sometimes, the situation is outracing a threat, sometimes it's ignoring it, and sometimes it involves sideboarding in 4x Hope//Pray." --Doug Linn
Over time, information that you actually need to physically carry with you will tend to be information that requires absolute security and integrity. Many different forms of media may serve this purpose. Encrypted optical media can fill the security part, but the integrity part I'm not sure. And the portability is an issue.
I envision that people will carry some form of smart memory chip/device everywhere with them, linked to their own RFID or something to keep it married to them alone.
As the ability to secure VPN over public networks becomes more and more turnkey, the actual need to physically carry large amounts of information will become less and less I believe.
Also, optical media may become holographic and not have the same physical shape as modern disks.
from The Steam Client eats up memory and space off of the Toshiba Hard Drives.
Plus, the Disney Avengers photo looks great, which could be the next Disney
The Incredibles 2 Video.