Name a casual card that hit $40-$70 that's been prnted in the modern era. (You can't) Because they're casual cards.
You're right, but big dumb monster cards like Eldrazi and Progenitus, and most big "good" dragons and angels start higher that most at the beginning because of casual and collector appeal... and most recently Planeswalkers, regardless of power level start above $7-10 dollars at release.
If the same casually appealing cards bump because they see tournament play do they then go higher. That's when we see goofy heights like $50. Jace was a double wammy. It was a planeswalker, it was obviously going to be playable. We just didn't know HOW good he was until the pros showed us. BOOM.
Per Chapin's twitter he thinks Shaman is in the top 10 of 2-drops. Interested to see where he goes with it, hopefully his article is focused on the card this week.
I got in at 10 per which I feel comfortable with. I don't see it going below 7-8.
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I was originally talking about pre-order prices, and their post-release movement.
And Casual players have near-zero impact on those.
Ummm, I can say for 100% certainty that you are dead wrong. Completely 100% wrong. Cards like Nicol Bolas Planeswalker were as high as they were from the CASUAL crowd at the start more than anything from the tournament crowd. Cards like Maelstrom Archangel were also way up there to start and once again this was because of CASUAL demand primarily, not tournament demand. There are many cards that I could make a list of (if you really want) that were highly inflated to start with from pre-orders and from initial demand once the set came out that were primarily due to casual players.
I dont know how many times Ive said in these threads in my time here that one should never underestimate the buying power and their affect on card prices of the casual crowd. If you believe Primeval titan would be nearly as high as it is without casual players buying them up then you really dont know as much as you think you do about how the secondary singles market works.
Now with that said. Its true that for the high-end tournament staples, that a lot of their demand does come from the tournament crowd. However the casual crowd (which makes up over half of all secondary market singles buying) helps to put a floor on the price of these cards, that the tournament crowd then builds on top of. Both groups contribute to the price of cards, that is indisputable. How much the casual crowd contributes to the value of a specific card depends on the card, and how much tournament play it sees. Its true that I doubt we will ever see a non-tournament card breach $20 and potentially stay there in the modern era. But at the same time, you can bet that a good $15-$20 of Jace 2.0's value likely comes from the casual crowd.
Just like tournament players, the casual crowd doesnt want to have to overpay for cards if they dont have to. So if they see a card that could be a tournament staple, that they view as underpriced, they will pre-order just like everyone else the cards that they will be looking for, for their casual decks or that they feel they can get for cheap and then be able to trade away later for the other cards they will want.
Now that said of course, oftentime its the casual crowd that contributes the most (at least initially) to the purchasing and openning of sealed boxes and such outside of the businesses that deal in singles sales that supply the cards for the online pre-orders and such.
A classic example of this, is ROE. That set was a HUGE casual set. We sold through a ton of boxes and packs of that set even with the set having relatively few tournament staples (compared to some other sets) because the majority of the set was heaven for casual players. Many of the rares and mythics started out much higher, not because of the tournament crowd, but because of a ton of initial demand from the casual crowd.
Anyhow, I think Ill leave it at that for now. Once again all Im saying is that your statement about how the casual crowd has near-zero impact on pre-sales and such is just wrong and that they have a lot more impact that you seem to think they do.
Per Chapin's twitter he thinks Shaman is in the top 10 of 2-drops. Interested to see where he goes with it, hopefully his article is focused on the card this week.
I really need him to prove that one with some background info. Survival of the fittest is good but giving it a creature body without haste makes it eh. Every single color can kill it now, even green. It's just too big of a target. It's just like Elvish Piper, great card, but it never pops because it has a giant bullseye on its chest. I may get a bit of hate on this, but I'd take the Piper any day.
Barring Jace, MODO has cheaper singles...
I just bought a MODO Gideon for 20 bucks, for instance.
That's not exactly true either. Chase rares from sets that are not heavily drafted are also more expensive than their paper counterparts. Eldrazi monument (14-17), Lotus Cobra (24-27), and Elspeth (~50) are all examples of that issue.
Gideon and Vengevine will likely rocket back up to 40+ when M11 comes out.
Ummm, I can say for 100% certainty that you are dead wrong. .
Considering that you just posted a ridiculously long post agreeing with what I was stating. (That once the set is released, tournament players drive the majority of demand, and thus the changes in market value.) With pre-orders? Sure. But that's not what I was referring to, because pre-orders are generally only a few weeks time in the lifespan of a card's time on the market. Once the card's released into the open and people start playing with it, as you said, the casual values start to crash. As a player, pre-order prices really aren't good for much else than spotting deals and trying to unload what I perceive to be over-valued cards while they are still high.
One interesting element that seems to be repeating over and over is that green cards are very, very overpriced during pre-orders. Vengevine is about the only one that wasn't. Lotus Cobra was. Fauna Shaman, Primeval Titan, and Gaea's Revenge were all much higher than you would expect given the power level of the card. Fauna Shaman likely has the Lotus Cobra overhype factor (imo), but the other two probably have the casual effect on preorder prices. But if Primeval Titan turns out to be a bust in tournament play, there's no way he maintains anywhere near that value.
Again, I think my point was misunderstood- I was referring to market movement once the set was released and prices started to change with cards floating out there on the open market instead of in booster boxes.
Exactly! That's why I'm snatching 'em up now while they're cheap.
I could easily see it becoming a $5-7 card. ($2-3 atm)
Vengevine's simply a better option for a resilient threat right now because it doesn't fail the Jace test. (If your opponent has an active Jace and the board is empty, have you just time walked yourself?) It will probably be a lot better post-rotation when the monogreen decks likely become tournament viable since it's absolutely ridiculous with Monument.
Casual players also have a great impact on prices AFTER pre-sales. That's what Jeff was referring to as well. A set of Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker is still doing about $30 on eBay (just checked completed listings). That's solely due to casual. And this is just 1 example, there are really many more out there. I really think people underestimate the power of casual demand on the prices of cards. Also, the amount of casual magic players is SO much higher than the amount of tournament players. It's true that casual players are likely to spend less on cards than tournament players are, but you can't deny their buying power.
My $0.02.
But the card still crashed post-presale, which is the point I was trying to make. Casual players cannot maintain chase rare prices on their own. They simply don't have the time component of demand necessary to do so. It's doing $30 now, but it was far more than that at release. Pre-sale prices are distorted because there's zero supply in the economy, and it's usually a bubble that crashes.
"Casual" is a very charged word. Just go over to the standard forums and read a bit. People who are trying to get on the PT consider people who play any budget deck casual. Jeff mentioned the "casual" crowd putting a floor on prices. One thing that pushes up demand is a lack of supply. "Casual" players aren't trading in thier ADD (Angels, Demons, and Dragons) at the same rate as they would some other card like Tarmogoyf so it reduces supply on the secondary market. Often they don't have to be buying the cards to make the price high, sometimes they just need to not be selling them.
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Per Chapin's twitter he thinks Shaman is in the top 10 of 2-drops. Interested to see where he goes with it, hopefully his article is focused on the card this week.
I got in at 10 per which I feel comfortable with. I don't see it going below 7-8.
Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy, I knew Jack Kennedy, Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy.
I'm w/Dragon23. I'll believe it when I see it.
When he goes off, yes, he's amazing...but he's gotta last a turn first. Good luck with that. Of course, if they bring back ze greavez (or somesuch) next year, all bets are off.
Both Grave and Primeval Titan are out of stock on SCG. Jeff sells the Grave Titan for $15, while SCG has it at $25 and Jeff sells Primeval for $30, while SCG has it on their website for $35.
Curious if Jeff has increased his prices yet and how they show up on R_E's list. I have a feeling Primeval will take BSA's spot.
For the record I dont actually do pre-sales, never have, probably never will. The price list I posted was just a snapshot from that day on ebay and what not as mentioned in the post. Ill post an update probably tomorrow. Thursday evening at the latest.
Reading through here and seeing all the arguments regarding Time Reversal... What happens (to the price of Time Reversal) if SoM features a more balanced Black Vise? Maybe casting 3 mana instead of one? Perhaps it (Time Reversal) will be to M11 what Vampire Nocturnus was to M10? Hmm.....
Reading through here and seeing all the arguments regarding Time Reversal... What happens (to the price of Time Reversal) if SoM features a more balanced Black Vise? Maybe casting 3 mana instead of one? Perhaps it (Time Reversal) will be to M11 what Vampire Nocturnus was to M10? Hmm.....
That's stretching things a bit. What if they print indestructible artifact land that gives a creature and itself shroud. Then lich is super good.
I've fallen into the same
trap you are but the fact is this thread is for these cards right now.
Because conservative bias is a far, far worse thing. Liberal bias doesn't, statistically speaking, make people stupid. Conservative bias (or at least Fox's version of it) does.
When he goes off, yes, he's amazing...but he's gotta last a turn first. Good luck with that. Of course, if they bring back ze greavez (or somesuch) next year, all bets are off.
But you see, everyone did say the same about Lotus Cobra.
Also, why does everyone think they are going to reprint every other card from Mirrodin block in the next block?
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Reading through here and seeing all the arguments regarding Time Reversal... What happens (to the price of Time Reversal) if SoM features a more balanced Black Vise? Maybe casting 3 mana instead of one? Perhaps it (Time Reversal) will be to M11 what Vampire Nocturnus was to M10? Hmm.....
Exactly! That's why I'm snatching 'em up now while they're cheap.
I could easily see it becoming a $5-7 card. ($2-3 atm)
Right, because a 4/4 for 5 is SOOOOOOOOO GOOOOOODDDDDDD
Point being, Sprouting Thrinax was good because it stopped aggressive starts on turn 3, which is what Jund needed to get into BBE and Siege-Gang range. As a 4/4 for 5, it's too slow to play a wall position and doesn't do enough to play an aggressive position.
Put another way, would you rather have Mitotic Slime or Baneslayer Angel in your deck?
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Old terminology reference:
Play (noun): Battlefield
Play (verb): Cast/Play
RFG: Exile
CIP: Enters the Battlefield
Put another way, would you rather have Mitotic Slime or Baneslayer Angel in your deck?
I don't want to say that Mitotic Slime is better than BSA. But there are situations that I would want Mitotic Slime.
t1: Mana Dork
t2: Bloodthrone Vampire, Vendetta/Bolt/Oust/Path (if necessary)
t3: Vines of Vastwood, Removal, etc.
t4: Slime. With a clear path, that's +14/+14 for the Vampire.
Or, just say you're playing against mono black control. So many destroy effects will make sure that BSA dies, but Mitotic Slime will keep on kicking.
Say you're playing Eldrazi Monument. Your only creature is Mitotic Slime. You'll win the game baring a sacrifice exile effect.
Put another way, would you rather have Mitotic Slime or Baneslayer Angel in your deck?
If I was splashing green lightly into blue or black, then probably the slime. If I was going mono or heavy white, then BSA.
These aren't really comparable cards outside that they're both creatures and have CMC 5 and have abilities that keep them alive. This is not a clearcut case of Serra Angel VS BSA. It'd depend on the deck I'd make, but I doubt that I would shoehorn either of them in just because, but rather build a deck that has creatures that complement the rest of it, and if neither BSA or MS are suitable, then to find one that is.
You're right, but big dumb monster cards like Eldrazi and Progenitus, and most big "good" dragons and angels start higher that most at the beginning because of casual and collector appeal... and most recently Planeswalkers, regardless of power level start above $7-10 dollars at release.
If the same casually appealing cards bump because they see tournament play do they then go higher. That's when we see goofy heights like $50. Jace was a double wammy. It was a planeswalker, it was obviously going to be playable. We just didn't know HOW good he was until the pros showed us. BOOM.
I got in at 10 per which I feel comfortable with. I don't see it going below 7-8.
David Ochoa: "Mono-bacon!..."
Ummm, I can say for 100% certainty that you are dead wrong. Completely 100% wrong. Cards like Nicol Bolas Planeswalker were as high as they were from the CASUAL crowd at the start more than anything from the tournament crowd. Cards like Maelstrom Archangel were also way up there to start and once again this was because of CASUAL demand primarily, not tournament demand. There are many cards that I could make a list of (if you really want) that were highly inflated to start with from pre-orders and from initial demand once the set came out that were primarily due to casual players.
I dont know how many times Ive said in these threads in my time here that one should never underestimate the buying power and their affect on card prices of the casual crowd. If you believe Primeval titan would be nearly as high as it is without casual players buying them up then you really dont know as much as you think you do about how the secondary singles market works.
Now with that said. Its true that for the high-end tournament staples, that a lot of their demand does come from the tournament crowd. However the casual crowd (which makes up over half of all secondary market singles buying) helps to put a floor on the price of these cards, that the tournament crowd then builds on top of. Both groups contribute to the price of cards, that is indisputable. How much the casual crowd contributes to the value of a specific card depends on the card, and how much tournament play it sees. Its true that I doubt we will ever see a non-tournament card breach $20 and potentially stay there in the modern era. But at the same time, you can bet that a good $15-$20 of Jace 2.0's value likely comes from the casual crowd.
Just like tournament players, the casual crowd doesnt want to have to overpay for cards if they dont have to. So if they see a card that could be a tournament staple, that they view as underpriced, they will pre-order just like everyone else the cards that they will be looking for, for their casual decks or that they feel they can get for cheap and then be able to trade away later for the other cards they will want.
Now that said of course, oftentime its the casual crowd that contributes the most (at least initially) to the purchasing and openning of sealed boxes and such outside of the businesses that deal in singles sales that supply the cards for the online pre-orders and such.
A classic example of this, is ROE. That set was a HUGE casual set. We sold through a ton of boxes and packs of that set even with the set having relatively few tournament staples (compared to some other sets) because the majority of the set was heaven for casual players. Many of the rares and mythics started out much higher, not because of the tournament crowd, but because of a ton of initial demand from the casual crowd.
Anyhow, I think Ill leave it at that for now. Once again all Im saying is that your statement about how the casual crowd has near-zero impact on pre-sales and such is just wrong and that they have a lot more impact that you seem to think they do.
I really need him to prove that one with some background info. Survival of the fittest is good but giving it a creature body without haste makes it eh. Every single color can kill it now, even green. It's just too big of a target. It's just like Elvish Piper, great card, but it never pops because it has a giant bullseye on its chest. I may get a bit of hate on this, but I'd take the Piper any day.
Standard:
:symr:/:symg: Valakut 2.0 (Wolf Run Green)
Legacy:
:symr:/:symb: Vial Goblins
:symr:/:symg:/:symw: Zoo
:symg:/:symw:/:symr: Maverick
Commander:
:symg:/:symb:/:symw: Karador, Ghost Chieftain
That's not exactly true either. Chase rares from sets that are not heavily drafted are also more expensive than their paper counterparts. Eldrazi monument (14-17), Lotus Cobra (24-27), and Elspeth (~50) are all examples of that issue.
Gideon and Vengevine will likely rocket back up to 40+ when M11 comes out.
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Some i can see being high, but the 5 walkers? no way the market is flooded with them and that drives the prices down
People have yet to realize how awesome it is? Fine by me...
Currently playing:
M13 Draft
GGGGG Dungrove................(STANDARD)
GWGWG Maverick..................(LEGACY)
Jon Finkel on the PWP System:
I see the card seeing a lot more play when the two major exiling effects in Oblivion Ring and Path to Exile rotate out.
Exactly! That's why I'm snatching 'em up now while they're cheap.
I could easily see it becoming a $5-7 card. ($2-3 atm)
Currently playing:
M13 Draft
GGGGG Dungrove................(STANDARD)
GWGWG Maverick..................(LEGACY)
Jon Finkel on the PWP System:
Considering that you just posted a ridiculously long post agreeing with what I was stating. (That once the set is released, tournament players drive the majority of demand, and thus the changes in market value.) With pre-orders? Sure. But that's not what I was referring to, because pre-orders are generally only a few weeks time in the lifespan of a card's time on the market. Once the card's released into the open and people start playing with it, as you said, the casual values start to crash. As a player, pre-order prices really aren't good for much else than spotting deals and trying to unload what I perceive to be over-valued cards while they are still high.
One interesting element that seems to be repeating over and over is that green cards are very, very overpriced during pre-orders. Vengevine is about the only one that wasn't. Lotus Cobra was. Fauna Shaman, Primeval Titan, and Gaea's Revenge were all much higher than you would expect given the power level of the card. Fauna Shaman likely has the Lotus Cobra overhype factor (imo), but the other two probably have the casual effect on preorder prices. But if Primeval Titan turns out to be a bust in tournament play, there's no way he maintains anywhere near that value.
Again, I think my point was misunderstood- I was referring to market movement once the set was released and prices started to change with cards floating out there on the open market instead of in booster boxes.
Vengevine's simply a better option for a resilient threat right now because it doesn't fail the Jace test. (If your opponent has an active Jace and the board is empty, have you just time walked yourself?) It will probably be a lot better post-rotation when the monogreen decks likely become tournament viable since it's absolutely ridiculous with Monument.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
But the card still crashed post-presale, which is the point I was trying to make. Casual players cannot maintain chase rare prices on their own. They simply don't have the time component of demand necessary to do so. It's doing $30 now, but it was far more than that at release. Pre-sale prices are distorted because there's zero supply in the economy, and it's usually a bubble that crashes.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy, I knew Jack Kennedy, Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy.
I'm w/Dragon23. I'll believe it when I see it.
When he goes off, yes, he's amazing...but he's gotta last a turn first. Good luck with that. Of course, if they bring back ze greavez (or somesuch) next year, all bets are off.
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For the record I dont actually do pre-sales, never have, probably never will. The price list I posted was just a snapshot from that day on ebay and what not as mentioned in the post. Ill post an update probably tomorrow. Thursday evening at the latest.
Current decks:
Legacy: Zoo, Aggro Elves, The Gate, White Weenie, Red Deck Wins, and Merfolk. Currently building Solidarity.
Casual: Warp World Revolution and Old School Red-Green.
Standard: Ob-Nixilis Wave and Elves.
That's stretching things a bit. What if they print indestructible artifact land that gives a creature and itself shroud. Then lich is super good.
I've fallen into the same
trap you are but the fact is this thread is for these cards right now.
But you see, everyone did say the same about Lotus Cobra.
Also, why does everyone think they are going to reprint every other card from Mirrodin block in the next block?
Twitter
You mean Iron Maiden? It's pretty balanced.
Right, because a 4/4 for 5 is SOOOOOOOOO GOOOOOODDDDDDD
Point being, Sprouting Thrinax was good because it stopped aggressive starts on turn 3, which is what Jund needed to get into BBE and Siege-Gang range. As a 4/4 for 5, it's too slow to play a wall position and doesn't do enough to play an aggressive position.
Put another way, would you rather have Mitotic Slime or Baneslayer Angel in your deck?
Play (verb): Cast/Play
RFG: Exile
CIP: Enters the Battlefield
Fetchland: Arid Mesa
Shockland: Watery Grave
M10 Dual: Glacial Fortress
What is the meta?
I don't want to say that Mitotic Slime is better than BSA. But there are situations that I would want Mitotic Slime.
t1: Mana Dork
t2: Bloodthrone Vampire, Vendetta/Bolt/Oust/Path (if necessary)
t3: Vines of Vastwood, Removal, etc.
t4: Slime. With a clear path, that's +14/+14 for the Vampire.
Or, just say you're playing against mono black control. So many destroy effects will make sure that BSA dies, but Mitotic Slime will keep on kicking.
Say you're playing Eldrazi Monument. Your only creature is Mitotic Slime. You'll win the game baring a sacrifice exile effect.
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If I was splashing green lightly into blue or black, then probably the slime. If I was going mono or heavy white, then BSA.
These aren't really comparable cards outside that they're both creatures and have CMC 5 and have abilities that keep them alive. This is not a clearcut case of Serra Angel VS BSA. It'd depend on the deck I'd make, but I doubt that I would shoehorn either of them in just because, but rather build a deck that has creatures that complement the rest of it, and if neither BSA or MS are suitable, then to find one that is.
So they printed Mass Polymorph in this set.
Urzassedatives printed Mass Truthery.
All i can say here is, agreed and agreed.
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Seconded. I could want to play Mitotic Slime over Baneslayer Angel for many reasons (like it being Green) if it makes sense in the meta.