Now that we have all of the mechanics for Gatecrash spoiled I would love to get some discussion about their limited viability. At first glance, I really like Evolve and Bloodrush. Curving out with evolve creatures could potentially get produce some incredibly fast starts for a Simic deck in a way that Unleash provided for Rakdos in RTR. Bloodrush simply makes me not want to block GruUl's creatures. Similar to Selesnya, blocking their creatures with open mana was a terrible idea just because of the abundance of combat tricks they would have. Now RG's creatures can also be combat tricks? I'm scarred...
Here are some questions to get the discussion started.
What would it take for each of the mechanics to become good?
How do you expect the mechanics will change the way GTC limited games will be played?
Which do you find most interesting?
What type of support do you expect for each of them?
Which ones of the best, intrinsically speaking?
For reference, here are each of the mechanics:
UG Simic
Evolve (Whenever a creature enters the battlefield under your control, if that creature has greater power or toughness than this creature, put a +1/+1 counter on this creature.)
RW Boros
Battalion (Whenever cardname and at least two other creatures attack, effect.)
RG Gruul
Bloodrush (Cost, discard cardname: target creature gets +X/+Y where X and Y are equal to cardname's Power and Toughness.)
BW Orzhov
Extort (Whenever you cast a spell you may pay :symbw:, if you do each opponent loses 1 life and you gain that much life.)
UB Dimir
Cipher (Then you may exile this spell card encoded on a creature you control. Whenever that creature deals combat damage to a player, its controller may cast a copy of this card without paying its mana cost.)
I would say that all of these mechanics are potentially fairly powerful for limited.
Evolve rewards you heavily for drafting large creatures, which is generally already an area where green excels. It's going to strongly depend on what creatures get it, but especially if we see many with highly skewed power/toughness ratios (so they can trigger other evolve creatures but are easily triggered themselves), this will be amazing. An 0/4 Evolve Reach for 2G-3G is a great example of this. A 3/1 Evolve Flying for 3U would similarly be great.
Battalion is entirely going to depend on what the battalion triggers are. Lightning Helix trigger is understandably INSANE. Also, we're going to need to see a number of cheap evasive guys to enable this mechanic to really shine, otherwise the more minor effects are going to be difficult to trigger without giving up card advantage.
Bloodrush is pretty nutty. Turning a slew of potential creatures into combat tricks is going to throw math heavily in their favor. Do you block and risk trading your guy on the board for a card in your hand? Do you let creatures through and risk multiple Bloodrushes closing out the game? Especially if instant removal is as limited as it was in RtR, this is going to be a major force to be reckoned with. Of course, it's also going to depend on the numbers.
Extort seems very interesting. It greatly rewards them for stalling board states, as every late-game spell, no matter how inconsequential, can be a Lightning Helix to the face or better. However, it's going to be difficult to stay on-curve while Extorting, so if the other guilds are aggressive (and they all seem to be), you might get shut down before you can really get rolling.
Cipher has a ludicrous amount of potential. U/B generally have the best evasive guys to begin with, so you're frequently going to be able to cast a Cipher spell and immediately swing for a second copy. If there's a Doom Blade or Unsummon variant, it will be absolutely brutal.
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Evolve: Since this only makes a difference to the card it's printed on and then does nothing but makes it larger, there doesn't seem to be much to this. These cards will probably be strong, but since mana curves already matter in Limited I don't think they change much and I'll be happy to play the monocoloured ones in non-Simic decks.
Battalion: Very card specific. Broadly speaking it gives Boros an interest in setting up alpha strikes where multiple effects can trigger at once. However, these will generally all be on the board already so beyond the prerelease opponents will be saving tricks to disrupt exactly that. If there are any "X target creatures can't block" effects in the set this will make them good.
Bloodrush: Looks strong to me, but extremely swingy. Bad Gruul draws will have no hope of winning, whilst good draws will be completely insane as the damage floods in before you can do anything.
Extort: This is my favourite ability of the set. If you ever get multiples into play at once the effect quickly becomes ridiculous. I'll be interested to see how they cost this at Common.
Cipher: Difficult to assess without seeing a card, but seems very swingy. If the opponent has some kind of answer ready the ability becomes useless. If not, the card/tempo advantage will quickly become unfair.
Four of the five mechanics make me want instant speed bounce (or removal)... could make for interesting play!
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What would it take for each of the mechanics to become good?
Evolve - mostly just reasonably costed cards with good abilities.
Battalion - some swarm type cards that make multiple bodies would go a long way I think (something akin to Krenko's Command in M13 for example) as well as evasive cards (flyers) that are more likely to live and let you trigger it multiple times.
Bloodrush - reasonable cost pretty much. They're all pump spells which are pretty much always going to be playable to some extent unless they're drastically overcosted or don't pump enough to be worth it. It certainly won't hurt if the card is playable as both a creature or pump spell though.
Extort - some cheap spells with it. The 6 mana card they previewed is fine but to really take advantage of this ability you're going to want some 2-4 drop range guys that are good on their own.
Cipher - creatures with evasion (unblockable or intimidate out of Dimir, but combining it with some of white's flyers is not unreasonable) and cards with Cipher that are worth playing on their own. Something like an Impulse effect with Cipher would be playable on its own but adding Cipher to it just makes it even more awesome.
How do you expect the mechanics will change the way GTC limited games will be played?
Evolve - might change some sequencing in how you play your creatures but other than that (and paying attention to your triggers!) I don't think it will change normal gameplay too much.
Battalion - you'll probably see people chump attacking a bit more or holding back creatures to save them for a Battalion strike assuming they have a Battalion effect worth attacking for.
Bloodrush - you'll pretty much always have to expect a pump spell out of the Gruul decks since a lot of their creatures are pump spells anyways. It also makes for some interesting tensions between "should I play this as a creature or hold it as a pump?"
Extort - I don't think it will change too much, it will just give you a nice manasink when you don't have anything else to do with your mana. If you're tapping out for a 5 or 6 drop for example you're probably just going to ignore it, not wait until you have an open mana next turn or something silly like that.
Cipher - I think it depends on how good the effects printed for it are, but I could see a lot more removal as tempo plays to push through Cipher guys.
Which do you find most interesting?
Cipher is the most interesting to me as it seems like it has a lot of potential. If they print really weak, or overcosted Cipher cards I could see it being a letdown, but just based on the ability alone I'm pretty excited about it.
What type of support do you expect for each of them?
Evolve - +1/+1 counters matter cards (like the Simic Fluxmage spoiled already for example)
Battalion - Like I said earlier, swarm cards that make multiple bodies, evasive creatures, probably some falter/can't block effects too.
Bloodrush - I don't really see much support if they're all just strictly pump spells but maybe there are some cards that will care about Bloodrush? It works quite well on double strikers for instance but those are usually a Boros thing.
Extort - Just cheap cards that have Extort, and probably some non-creature cards (enchantments or artifacts) that do something useful and have the ability tacked on (similar to something like Angelic Benediction with Exalted).
Cipher - Same as Battalion - evasive creatures. Also maybe some tempo/bounce spells to help get the Cipher guys through.
Which ones of the best, intrinsically speaking?
I think Extort is the best just because manasinks are so hard to come by in limited and are very valuable in games of magic. Even with just two of these cards in play you can get a 4 point life swing attached to every spell you play and that adds up fast. Bloodrush will probably be good as well but for more boring reasons (because pump spells are almost always good when reasonably costed and these pump spells can be creatures in a pinch)
One thing I'd like to say is that I think that Wizards puts alot of work into, and generally succeeds at, ensuring that the guilds are balanced in terms of overall quality. So I don't expect any one guild to dominate; there might be a Selesnya-like guild that is somewhat better than the others but that won't make the other guilds unplayable, especially since the overdrafting of the more powerful guild will kind of balance out its power level.
For that reason, I think that we can actually speculate on how the apparently strong guild mechanics are going to be gimped to make them closer in power level to the apparently less strong mechanics. The one that people seem to be making the biggest deal out of is Cipher since you get a reusable spell effect from it. My theory is that the Cipher spells will be either very situational, or of fairly low power and with little effect on board state, or symmetric so that there is often no clear advantage to playing the recurred version. The spoiled card is, at least in limited, not always something you're going to want to recur. You might be more likely to deck yourself with it, or may have more cards in hand and just be giving your opponent card advantage with the effect. Similarly I wouldn't be suprised if there were a bounce spell something like "Return a creature you control to its owner's hand. Target opponent returns a creature they control to their hand." The point being that this effect is not inherently good for either player, but the Cipher player gets the advantage of deciding when to employ the effect and when not to.
Anyway, to answer your questions:
Evolve:
This effect will be good if the creatures it is put on are not overcosted. It will be better if there are lots of flash creatures in Simic colors. There might be a spell something like ":SymUG:: Instant - The next time you cast a creature spell this turn it enters the battlefield with a +1/+1 counter on it", to assist in making big enough guys to trigger Evolve. Also if there are numerous ways to move +1/+1 counters around and/or to grant abilities based on +1/+1 counters (maybe even the number of +1/+1 counters, sort of like an auto-levelling creature), then it will be better as well.
If there are no evasive creatures with evolve, then there will need to be ways to make evolve creatures evasive.
Battalion:
This seems like a potentially less inherently strong ability (although not as bad as Radiance was!). You will not get any benefit from Battalion creatures in the first two or three turns most games, since you probably won't have three guys to attack with before turn 4, and you may not want to attack with all of them even if you do have them. Therefore I see this as being more of a mid to late game ability, which means that unless Boros has a strong early game, it may be a guild in strong need of support from another color.
Battalion is kind of similar to Cipher since it only has benefit if you're attacking (Battalion giving you the effect just for attacking, Cipher requiring that you hit with a single creature). However I expect the Battalion effects to be more aggressive and more oriented towards damage, and the Cipher effects to be more controlling and more oriented towards mill.
So I think that what Battalion will need to make it good is lots of efficient early creatures that you're going to want to attack with along with a Battalion creature on turn 4, and also ways to win a damage race after turn 4. I'm thinking that there will be more lifegain and also effects like "Battalion: attacking creatures you control get +0/+2 until end of turn" to make it less easy to get blown out by advantageous trades when attacking - or more generally, ways to ensure that your attacking creatures are harder to kill so that you don't have to waste them just to get a Battalion effect.
Bloodrush:
I think that Gruul will just get lots of efficiently costed beaters with trample and Bloodrush. It will be the Rakdos equivalent in Gatecrash - extremely one-dimensional and predictable but so aggressive that it is very hard to stabilize against. Gruul won't need as many reach cards as Rakdos needed because its trample guys and Bloodrush will be able to provide that.
With so many opportunities for being 2-for-1'd (i.e. use Bloodrush and have the target creature removed in response), I think that Gruul needs hexproof, and I think it will get it, and I think that we'll see at least 1 common hexproof Gruul creature and 1-2 uncommon Gruul hexproof creature in Gatecrash. Also cheap ways to return cards from your graveyard to your hand would be in order, and since green can do this (something like "1RG: Instant - put up to two target creatures from your graveyard on top of your library in any order") I think we'll see some of that too. And I think that creature-based card drawing will be in there, such as "look at the top 3 cards of your library; you may reveal any two creatures and put them into your hand, and put the rest on the bottom of your library in any order."
I predict hating playing for/against Gruul as much as I hate playing for/against Rakdos - very repetitive and like I said, one-dimensional. Some people will love it though, it's all down to your play style.
Extort:
This ability does nothing at all to the board state, it just affects life totals. What I expect is that there will be lots of cards that trigger off of life loss or life gain, something like: "whenever you gain life, you may pay 2: if you do, put a 2/2 white knight token with vigilance onto the battlefield". And "whenever an opponent loses life, target creature you control gets +1/+1 until end of turn".
Since Orzhov is going to want to cast cheap spells and utilize the Extort ability, I think it will have lots of low powered cantrips (I think that Cremate in RTR is an example, made to work both with Orzhov and against Golgari), and also ways to get cards from your graveyard back into your hand.
Orzhov seems to want to be very controlling; it wants the board state to stay manageable and to drain life away. So I think it will have good walls and blockers but not alot of aggressive or evasive creatures. Unfortunately this means that if Orzhov can't keep Extort permanents on the board, it's going to be far behind on its game plan.
Cipher:
As I said before, I think that this effect has the potential to be so powerful that they'll have to gimp Cipher spells to avoid them being overpowered. I think they'll generally be situational in effect (sometimes good, sometimes useless) and often symmetrical. Obviously Cipher is going to want unblockable and certainly the guildmage will be able to grant that. Everybody expects a mill theme for Dimir and I doubt Wizards would decide to disappoint everyone by neglecting that. To be really good Cipher there will need to be cheap unblockable creatures in Dimir colors and the Cipher spells will have to have more-often-than-not useful effects. I just don't think they have a lot of latitude on how powerful then can make Cipher spells; turning the dial up on the power level just a little bit of any Cipher card could easily make it completely broken.
If Wizards was somehow asleep at the wheel during development, Cipher could end up completely dominating, or at the very least, could be the Selesnya equivalent "clearly better than the other guilds".
Overall, I think that Wizards will play it conservative with the Cipher effects, leaving Evolve as the best overall mechanic. I say this because Evolve is the least easily disrupted mechanic. If you get a couple of evolve guys out and then play a bigger creature, even if your opponent removes or bounces one, you'll still get the benefit on the other. And even after being bounced, a creature with Evolve can be played again and re-evolve. It just seems like these +1/+1 Evolve counters are going to be prevalent and hard to get rid of. And I also believe that Wizards will put good +1/+1-counter-based abilities on creatures making it that much stronger.
Battalion is too reliant on a fragile game state to make work, Bloodrush is too easily disrupted and too disadvantageous to the caster when it is disrupted, Extort is good but too slow, and Cipher could be incredible but I think they'll gimp it. So that leaves Evolve as the ability that I think will be strongest in Gatecrash.
Battalion is too reliant on a fragile game state to make work, Bloodrush is too easily disrupted and too disadvantageous to the caster when it is disrupted, Extort is good but too slow, and Cipher could be incredible but I think they'll gimp it. So that leaves Evolve as the ability that I think will be strongest in Gatecrash.
This is very insightful. Of course the support cards will make all the difference but if I had to pick a prerelease guild now I'd be thinking Simic. It reminds me of the green soulbond cycle from AVR, where the buff has "haste" and can make it so hard to plan blocks. Curving out with evolve guys will be insanely powerful, so I'd hope that they restrict it cost-wise.
Without seeing more than one card for each mechanic, I'm most excited about Extort.... though I will say I've been excited for Orzhov for a long time. I can't imagine we won't be seeing plenty of cheap creatures/enchantments with Extort, as it would be useless without a couple out early. That assumed, I look forward to casting a turn 7 Arrester that comes with a 6-8 point life swing.
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It's basically impossible to tell which one will be best based on one card. So, instead, I'll list the limitations of each mechanic:
evolve: the preview card is very small for its cost, especially considering that it's half-green. Anyway, size doesn't matter much: evolve has a built-in limit since beyond a certain size, it won't evolve anymore. I predict that the best evolver will have very asymetric P/T, making them evolve longer. Since they're half-blue, I expect the asymetry to mostly be turtle-like higher toughness. Simic will be the slow defensive guild. A good smooth curve, obviously, will be key to make it work in a deck. Highly susceptible to destruction and bounce. I expect Simic to have multiple hexproof guys to counter this. (Except that then simic + dimir would be crazy good... oh well.)
bloodrush: quite the opposite. Since every creature being a pump spell would be broken in limited, I expect the costs to be high. The mechanic is very red in that the advantage is temporary. Only being available on attacks greatly limits its usefulness. Bascially, aggro with a late game rush. The preview card is bonker if any gruul has trample, which they very likely have. It's an easy uncounterable +6/+6 (or more) for three mana. Have removal handy.
extort: be far the hardest to evaluate since everything depends on how many you go out, how high their cost to play and the average CMC of orzhov spells. The preview card has built-in recurrence, which I hope won't be a sub-theme. Second mechanic most likely to be annoying and dominating. And looky, it's in colors most likely to have good removal.
cypher: given that it trigger on combat damage, it can't be put on combat spells, nor on instant-specific spells (counters, granting hexproof, etc), and will have to be in the blue or black color pie. So the list of spells will be amongst: peek, mill, scry, tap, bounce, sleep (tap+no untap), draw, discard, destroy creature, raise dead. Anything but the first three will be highly annoying and very powerful. The most likely mechanic to be busted.
In general, these mechanics are more skill intensive than those of the first set.
Both the evolve and bloodrush decks will want as many creatures as possible even those without the mechanics.
Any creature with evolve and flying will be a great threat especially since you can play a high-toughness wall to block and grow your creature. Evolve seems to be very touchy on the order in which you play your creatures, but it smooths out better late even if the evolve creatures themselves are bad top decks. Regardless, this keyword seems vulnerable to bounce, disruption, and removal.
I would like to throw a different curve on this discussion. Given that your first exposure to these mechanics will likely be in a Sealed setting, your pool will be including more than one guild. Thus, I would like to evaluate which mechanics have the most synergy with the others.
Battalion
Wants to play a weenie rush, so cheap creatures and card draw, with the occasional sweeper, will be the way of the day. On color, seems synergystic with Extort (lots of cheap stuff), and perhaps Bloodrush (something will get through). Off color, it seems better with Cipher.
Bloodrush
Keep establishing board presence until you can go for the knockout blow. On color, it is good with Battalion because something cheap is likely to hit. I will end up probably liking it better with Evolve, but that's due to the nature of creature cost curves in green as opposed to the mechanic itself. Off color, it is actually very good with Extort if you can pull it off.
Extort
Grind out the victory through defense. On color, it has synergy with Batallion through adding power to cheap creatures. It has some synergy with Cipher, as a Cipher'd creature will draw the opponent's attention away from your Extorters. Off color, it has very good synergy with Bloodrush (faster KO) and Evolve (slow game, bigger creatures).
Evolve
It's all about presence. On color, it has a bit of dis-synergy with Bloodrush, as Evolove will always want you to cast the creature. It's not very synergistic with Cipher either, as Cipher is designed to turn weenies into threats (something that Evolve already does on its own). I do belive the synergy will be there in the colors (as Evolve likes cheap power creatures found in red and the bounce and card draw found in blue), but it will not be through these mechanics. Off color, it would work very well with Battalion if there were white or red creatures that evolved (but there are not). It would also work very well with Extort, giving a slow, evolving game a win condition.
Cipher
I'll admit I don't really think this mechanic will be powerful as it is too easily disrupted. However, it does draw attention to creatures that your opponent wouldn't otherwise want to pay attention to. This makes it good with Extort. However, it is not so good with Evolve, as it is designed to turn weenies into threats, which is something that Evolve already does. If you can find a way to mix it with the off-color Battalion that would be the best use of it.
I also want to note that with Cipher, I would be looking for some very powerful defensive stuff to even consider Dimir. Things like "draw two cards" or "bounce target permanent" or "target player skips thier next combat phase". If Dimir focuses too much on mill, it won't be very popular.
EDIT:
Some people are saying that Cipher could get out of control. However, I see red and black getting more removal in this set. We shall see how removal-heavy this set is. But even if the set is removal-light, I'd counter Cipher with an aggressive Boros or midrange Gruul build anyway.
Bloodrush (Cost, discard cardname: target creature gets +X/+Y where X and Y are equal to cardname's Power and Toughness.)
Perhaps most of the cards will be this way, but seeing as there is one card spoiled for Bloodrush and it doesn't work this way, I wouldn't be so quick to assume it is:
Rubblehulk
Rubblehulk's power and toughness are each equal to the number of lands you control.
Bloodrush - , Discard Rubblehulk: Target attacking creature gets +X/+X until end of turn, where X is the number of lands you control.
Perhaps most of the cards will be this way, but seeing as there is one card spoiled for Bloodrush and it doesn't work this way, I wouldn't be so quick to assume it is:
Rubblehulk
Rubblehulk's power and toughness are each equal to the number of lands you control.
Bloodrush - , Discard Rubblehulk: Target attacking creature gets +X/+X until end of turn, where X is the number of lands you control.
The +X/+Y bit is from the Mothership.
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Perhaps most of the cards will be this way, but seeing as there is one card spoiled for Bloodrush and it doesn't work this way, I wouldn't be so quick to assume it is:
Rubblehulk
Rubblehulk's power and toughness are each equal to the number of lands you control.
Bloodrush - , Discard Rubblehulk: Target attacking creature gets +X/+X until end of turn, where X is the number of lands you control.
The number of lands you control IS it's power and toughness. Since Bloodrush is an ability word, the "+X/+Y" bit for creatures with set power and toughness will just be numbers. ("+2/+4" for a 2/4 creature)
The number of lands you control IS it's power and toughness. Since Bloodrush is an ability word, the "+X/+Y" bit for creatures with set power and toughness will just be numbers. ("+2/+4" for a 2/4 creature)
Support for Battalion that somehow hasn't gone mentioned: Haste guys.
Turn "oh he doesn't have battalion" into "omg I'm dead now bleh".
Similarly, flash guys.
Good points and, thinking ahead to Dragon's Maze, there's always Eyes in the Skies...
"Ha ha, your Batallion dude isn't going to do much all on his own!"
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<Limited Clan>
I just thought of something: will Evolve be at odds with combat tricks? Evolve encourages you to play creatures before combat, so that your existing creatures with Evolve can get a +1/+1 counter before attacking. But then you've used up mana that you might have wanted to hold back for combat tricks.
I wonder if combat tricks will generally be less playable in a heavily Evolve based deck ...
I just thought of something: will Evolve be at odds with combat tricks? Evolve encourages you to play creatures before combat, so that your existing creatures with Evolve can get a +1/+1 counter before attacking. But then you've used up mana that you might have wanted to hold back for combat tricks.
I wonder if combat tricks will generally be less playable in a heavily Evolve based deck ...
Interesting point. I actually wouldn't be too surprised if gatecrash has a shortage of green combat tricks in general... as you pointed out, they don't play that well with Evolve, and I can't imagine wanting to draft many combat tricks in a typical Gruul deck (since not needing to play combat tricks that aren't also creature split cards is kind of the point of Bloodrush).
if you can make a rather dedicated evolve deck, it would probably just play out like a slivers deck, where you just start vomiting things on the table and then countering key spells/wipes, combat tricks be damned. you just want to pump your stuff up as big as possible.
There won't be many things in u/g that are very large that you can use to exploit evolve that heavily. most of the time your creatures with evolve will sit at in the 2-4 power range.
The new set of spoilers today finally got me excited about this set. Simic and Orzhov look like they're going to be ridiculously fun to play with.
Does Extort seem somewhat overpowered to anyone else? In a defensive minded deck with maybe a few evasive creatures, mid-late game spells get nuts if you have 3+ extort cards on the board and available mana. Its a possible 6 point life swing almost every turn.
Here are some questions to get the discussion started.
What would it take for each of the mechanics to become good?
How do you expect the mechanics will change the way GTC limited games will be played?
Which do you find most interesting?
What type of support do you expect for each of them?
Which ones of the best, intrinsically speaking?
For reference, here are each of the mechanics:
UG Simic
Evolve (Whenever a creature enters the battlefield under your control, if that creature has greater power or toughness than this creature, put a +1/+1 counter on this creature.)
RW Boros
Battalion (Whenever cardname and at least two other creatures attack, effect.)
RG Gruul
Bloodrush (Cost, discard cardname: target creature gets +X/+Y where X and Y are equal to cardname's Power and Toughness.)
BW Orzhov
Extort (Whenever you cast a spell you may pay :symbw:, if you do each opponent loses 1 life and you gain that much life.)
UB Dimir
Cipher (Then you may exile this spell card encoded on a creature you control. Whenever that creature deals combat damage to a player, its controller may cast a copy of this card without paying its mana cost.)
Evolve rewards you heavily for drafting large creatures, which is generally already an area where green excels. It's going to strongly depend on what creatures get it, but especially if we see many with highly skewed power/toughness ratios (so they can trigger other evolve creatures but are easily triggered themselves), this will be amazing. An 0/4 Evolve Reach for 2G-3G is a great example of this. A 3/1 Evolve Flying for 3U would similarly be great.
Battalion is entirely going to depend on what the battalion triggers are. Lightning Helix trigger is understandably INSANE. Also, we're going to need to see a number of cheap evasive guys to enable this mechanic to really shine, otherwise the more minor effects are going to be difficult to trigger without giving up card advantage.
Bloodrush is pretty nutty. Turning a slew of potential creatures into combat tricks is going to throw math heavily in their favor. Do you block and risk trading your guy on the board for a card in your hand? Do you let creatures through and risk multiple Bloodrushes closing out the game? Especially if instant removal is as limited as it was in RtR, this is going to be a major force to be reckoned with. Of course, it's also going to depend on the numbers.
Extort seems very interesting. It greatly rewards them for stalling board states, as every late-game spell, no matter how inconsequential, can be a Lightning Helix to the face or better. However, it's going to be difficult to stay on-curve while Extorting, so if the other guilds are aggressive (and they all seem to be), you might get shut down before you can really get rolling.
Cipher has a ludicrous amount of potential. U/B generally have the best evasive guys to begin with, so you're frequently going to be able to cast a Cipher spell and immediately swing for a second copy. If there's a Doom Blade or Unsummon variant, it will be absolutely brutal.
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Evolve: Since this only makes a difference to the card it's printed on and then does nothing but makes it larger, there doesn't seem to be much to this. These cards will probably be strong, but since mana curves already matter in Limited I don't think they change much and I'll be happy to play the monocoloured ones in non-Simic decks.
Battalion: Very card specific. Broadly speaking it gives Boros an interest in setting up alpha strikes where multiple effects can trigger at once. However, these will generally all be on the board already so beyond the prerelease opponents will be saving tricks to disrupt exactly that. If there are any "X target creatures can't block" effects in the set this will make them good.
Bloodrush: Looks strong to me, but extremely swingy. Bad Gruul draws will have no hope of winning, whilst good draws will be completely insane as the damage floods in before you can do anything.
Extort: This is my favourite ability of the set. If you ever get multiples into play at once the effect quickly becomes ridiculous. I'll be interested to see how they cost this at Common.
Cipher: Difficult to assess without seeing a card, but seems very swingy. If the opponent has some kind of answer ready the ability becomes useless. If not, the card/tempo advantage will quickly become unfair.
Four of the five mechanics make me want instant speed bounce (or removal)... could make for interesting play!
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Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
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<Limited Clan>
Evolve - mostly just reasonably costed cards with good abilities.
Battalion - some swarm type cards that make multiple bodies would go a long way I think (something akin to Krenko's Command in M13 for example) as well as evasive cards (flyers) that are more likely to live and let you trigger it multiple times.
Bloodrush - reasonable cost pretty much. They're all pump spells which are pretty much always going to be playable to some extent unless they're drastically overcosted or don't pump enough to be worth it. It certainly won't hurt if the card is playable as both a creature or pump spell though.
Extort - some cheap spells with it. The 6 mana card they previewed is fine but to really take advantage of this ability you're going to want some 2-4 drop range guys that are good on their own.
Cipher - creatures with evasion (unblockable or intimidate out of Dimir, but combining it with some of white's flyers is not unreasonable) and cards with Cipher that are worth playing on their own. Something like an Impulse effect with Cipher would be playable on its own but adding Cipher to it just makes it even more awesome.
Evolve - might change some sequencing in how you play your creatures but other than that (and paying attention to your triggers!) I don't think it will change normal gameplay too much.
Battalion - you'll probably see people chump attacking a bit more or holding back creatures to save them for a Battalion strike assuming they have a Battalion effect worth attacking for.
Bloodrush - you'll pretty much always have to expect a pump spell out of the Gruul decks since a lot of their creatures are pump spells anyways. It also makes for some interesting tensions between "should I play this as a creature or hold it as a pump?"
Extort - I don't think it will change too much, it will just give you a nice manasink when you don't have anything else to do with your mana. If you're tapping out for a 5 or 6 drop for example you're probably just going to ignore it, not wait until you have an open mana next turn or something silly like that.
Cipher - I think it depends on how good the effects printed for it are, but I could see a lot more removal as tempo plays to push through Cipher guys.
Cipher is the most interesting to me as it seems like it has a lot of potential. If they print really weak, or overcosted Cipher cards I could see it being a letdown, but just based on the ability alone I'm pretty excited about it.
Evolve - +1/+1 counters matter cards (like the Simic Fluxmage spoiled already for example)
Battalion - Like I said earlier, swarm cards that make multiple bodies, evasive creatures, probably some falter/can't block effects too.
Bloodrush - I don't really see much support if they're all just strictly pump spells but maybe there are some cards that will care about Bloodrush? It works quite well on double strikers for instance but those are usually a Boros thing.
Extort - Just cheap cards that have Extort, and probably some non-creature cards (enchantments or artifacts) that do something useful and have the ability tacked on (similar to something like Angelic Benediction with Exalted).
Cipher - Same as Battalion - evasive creatures. Also maybe some tempo/bounce spells to help get the Cipher guys through.
I think Extort is the best just because manasinks are so hard to come by in limited and are very valuable in games of magic. Even with just two of these cards in play you can get a 4 point life swing attached to every spell you play and that adds up fast. Bloodrush will probably be good as well but for more boring reasons (because pump spells are almost always good when reasonably costed and these pump spells can be creatures in a pinch)
For that reason, I think that we can actually speculate on how the apparently strong guild mechanics are going to be gimped to make them closer in power level to the apparently less strong mechanics. The one that people seem to be making the biggest deal out of is Cipher since you get a reusable spell effect from it. My theory is that the Cipher spells will be either very situational, or of fairly low power and with little effect on board state, or symmetric so that there is often no clear advantage to playing the recurred version. The spoiled card is, at least in limited, not always something you're going to want to recur. You might be more likely to deck yourself with it, or may have more cards in hand and just be giving your opponent card advantage with the effect. Similarly I wouldn't be suprised if there were a bounce spell something like "Return a creature you control to its owner's hand. Target opponent returns a creature they control to their hand." The point being that this effect is not inherently good for either player, but the Cipher player gets the advantage of deciding when to employ the effect and when not to.
Anyway, to answer your questions:
Evolve:
This effect will be good if the creatures it is put on are not overcosted. It will be better if there are lots of flash creatures in Simic colors. There might be a spell something like ":SymUG:: Instant - The next time you cast a creature spell this turn it enters the battlefield with a +1/+1 counter on it", to assist in making big enough guys to trigger Evolve. Also if there are numerous ways to move +1/+1 counters around and/or to grant abilities based on +1/+1 counters (maybe even the number of +1/+1 counters, sort of like an auto-levelling creature), then it will be better as well.
If there are no evasive creatures with evolve, then there will need to be ways to make evolve creatures evasive.
Battalion:
This seems like a potentially less inherently strong ability (although not as bad as Radiance was!). You will not get any benefit from Battalion creatures in the first two or three turns most games, since you probably won't have three guys to attack with before turn 4, and you may not want to attack with all of them even if you do have them. Therefore I see this as being more of a mid to late game ability, which means that unless Boros has a strong early game, it may be a guild in strong need of support from another color.
Battalion is kind of similar to Cipher since it only has benefit if you're attacking (Battalion giving you the effect just for attacking, Cipher requiring that you hit with a single creature). However I expect the Battalion effects to be more aggressive and more oriented towards damage, and the Cipher effects to be more controlling and more oriented towards mill.
So I think that what Battalion will need to make it good is lots of efficient early creatures that you're going to want to attack with along with a Battalion creature on turn 4, and also ways to win a damage race after turn 4. I'm thinking that there will be more lifegain and also effects like "Battalion: attacking creatures you control get +0/+2 until end of turn" to make it less easy to get blown out by advantageous trades when attacking - or more generally, ways to ensure that your attacking creatures are harder to kill so that you don't have to waste them just to get a Battalion effect.
Bloodrush:
I think that Gruul will just get lots of efficiently costed beaters with trample and Bloodrush. It will be the Rakdos equivalent in Gatecrash - extremely one-dimensional and predictable but so aggressive that it is very hard to stabilize against. Gruul won't need as many reach cards as Rakdos needed because its trample guys and Bloodrush will be able to provide that.
With so many opportunities for being 2-for-1'd (i.e. use Bloodrush and have the target creature removed in response), I think that Gruul needs hexproof, and I think it will get it, and I think that we'll see at least 1 common hexproof Gruul creature and 1-2 uncommon Gruul hexproof creature in Gatecrash. Also cheap ways to return cards from your graveyard to your hand would be in order, and since green can do this (something like "1RG: Instant - put up to two target creatures from your graveyard on top of your library in any order") I think we'll see some of that too. And I think that creature-based card drawing will be in there, such as "look at the top 3 cards of your library; you may reveal any two creatures and put them into your hand, and put the rest on the bottom of your library in any order."
I predict hating playing for/against Gruul as much as I hate playing for/against Rakdos - very repetitive and like I said, one-dimensional. Some people will love it though, it's all down to your play style.
Extort:
This ability does nothing at all to the board state, it just affects life totals. What I expect is that there will be lots of cards that trigger off of life loss or life gain, something like: "whenever you gain life, you may pay 2: if you do, put a 2/2 white knight token with vigilance onto the battlefield". And "whenever an opponent loses life, target creature you control gets +1/+1 until end of turn".
Since Orzhov is going to want to cast cheap spells and utilize the Extort ability, I think it will have lots of low powered cantrips (I think that Cremate in RTR is an example, made to work both with Orzhov and against Golgari), and also ways to get cards from your graveyard back into your hand.
Orzhov seems to want to be very controlling; it wants the board state to stay manageable and to drain life away. So I think it will have good walls and blockers but not alot of aggressive or evasive creatures. Unfortunately this means that if Orzhov can't keep Extort permanents on the board, it's going to be far behind on its game plan.
Cipher:
As I said before, I think that this effect has the potential to be so powerful that they'll have to gimp Cipher spells to avoid them being overpowered. I think they'll generally be situational in effect (sometimes good, sometimes useless) and often symmetrical. Obviously Cipher is going to want unblockable and certainly the guildmage will be able to grant that. Everybody expects a mill theme for Dimir and I doubt Wizards would decide to disappoint everyone by neglecting that. To be really good Cipher there will need to be cheap unblockable creatures in Dimir colors and the Cipher spells will have to have more-often-than-not useful effects. I just don't think they have a lot of latitude on how powerful then can make Cipher spells; turning the dial up on the power level just a little bit of any Cipher card could easily make it completely broken.
If Wizards was somehow asleep at the wheel during development, Cipher could end up completely dominating, or at the very least, could be the Selesnya equivalent "clearly better than the other guilds".
Overall, I think that Wizards will play it conservative with the Cipher effects, leaving Evolve as the best overall mechanic. I say this because Evolve is the least easily disrupted mechanic. If you get a couple of evolve guys out and then play a bigger creature, even if your opponent removes or bounces one, you'll still get the benefit on the other. And even after being bounced, a creature with Evolve can be played again and re-evolve. It just seems like these +1/+1 Evolve counters are going to be prevalent and hard to get rid of. And I also believe that Wizards will put good +1/+1-counter-based abilities on creatures making it that much stronger.
Battalion is too reliant on a fragile game state to make work, Bloodrush is too easily disrupted and too disadvantageous to the caster when it is disrupted, Extort is good but too slow, and Cipher could be incredible but I think they'll gimp it. So that leaves Evolve as the ability that I think will be strongest in Gatecrash.
This is very insightful. Of course the support cards will make all the difference but if I had to pick a prerelease guild now I'd be thinking Simic. It reminds me of the green soulbond cycle from AVR, where the buff has "haste" and can make it so hard to plan blocks. Curving out with evolve guys will be insanely powerful, so I'd hope that they restrict it cost-wise.
I can't wait to see what they've come up with.
My Decks:
EDH: Sygg, River Cutthroat , Road to Scion
Grimgrin, Corpseborn
Modern: Polytokes
IRL: Progenitus Polymorph , Goblins
Just a friendly reminder that I will drive this car off a bridge
evolve: the preview card is very small for its cost, especially considering that it's half-green. Anyway, size doesn't matter much: evolve has a built-in limit since beyond a certain size, it won't evolve anymore. I predict that the best evolver will have very asymetric P/T, making them evolve longer. Since they're half-blue, I expect the asymetry to mostly be turtle-like higher toughness. Simic will be the slow defensive guild. A good smooth curve, obviously, will be key to make it work in a deck. Highly susceptible to destruction and bounce. I expect Simic to have multiple hexproof guys to counter this. (Except that then simic + dimir would be crazy good... oh well.)
bloodrush: quite the opposite. Since every creature being a pump spell would be broken in limited, I expect the costs to be high. The mechanic is very red in that the advantage is temporary. Only being available on attacks greatly limits its usefulness. Bascially, aggro with a late game rush. The preview card is bonker if any gruul has trample, which they very likely have. It's an easy uncounterable +6/+6 (or more) for three mana. Have removal handy.
extort: be far the hardest to evaluate since everything depends on how many you go out, how high their cost to play and the average CMC of orzhov spells. The preview card has built-in recurrence, which I hope won't be a sub-theme. Second mechanic most likely to be annoying and dominating. And looky, it's in colors most likely to have good removal.
cypher: given that it trigger on combat damage, it can't be put on combat spells, nor on instant-specific spells (counters, granting hexproof, etc), and will have to be in the blue or black color pie. So the list of spells will be amongst: peek, mill, scry, tap, bounce, sleep (tap+no untap), draw, discard, destroy creature, raise dead. Anything but the first three will be highly annoying and very powerful. The most likely mechanic to be busted.
Both the evolve and bloodrush decks will want as many creatures as possible even those without the mechanics.
Any creature with evolve and flying will be a great threat especially since you can play a high-toughness wall to block and grow your creature. Evolve seems to be very touchy on the order in which you play your creatures, but it smooths out better late even if the evolve creatures themselves are bad top decks. Regardless, this keyword seems vulnerable to bounce, disruption, and removal.
Older Magic as a Board Game: Panglacial Wurm , Mill
Battalion
Wants to play a weenie rush, so cheap creatures and card draw, with the occasional sweeper, will be the way of the day. On color, seems synergystic with Extort (lots of cheap stuff), and perhaps Bloodrush (something will get through). Off color, it seems better with Cipher.
Bloodrush
Keep establishing board presence until you can go for the knockout blow. On color, it is good with Battalion because something cheap is likely to hit. I will end up probably liking it better with Evolve, but that's due to the nature of creature cost curves in green as opposed to the mechanic itself. Off color, it is actually very good with Extort if you can pull it off.
Extort
Grind out the victory through defense. On color, it has synergy with Batallion through adding power to cheap creatures. It has some synergy with Cipher, as a Cipher'd creature will draw the opponent's attention away from your Extorters. Off color, it has very good synergy with Bloodrush (faster KO) and Evolve (slow game, bigger creatures).
Evolve
It's all about presence. On color, it has a bit of dis-synergy with Bloodrush, as Evolove will always want you to cast the creature. It's not very synergistic with Cipher either, as Cipher is designed to turn weenies into threats (something that Evolve already does on its own). I do belive the synergy will be there in the colors (as Evolve likes cheap power creatures found in red and the bounce and card draw found in blue), but it will not be through these mechanics. Off color, it would work very well with Battalion if there were white or red creatures that evolved (but there are not). It would also work very well with Extort, giving a slow, evolving game a win condition.
Cipher
I'll admit I don't really think this mechanic will be powerful as it is too easily disrupted. However, it does draw attention to creatures that your opponent wouldn't otherwise want to pay attention to. This makes it good with Extort. However, it is not so good with Evolve, as it is designed to turn weenies into threats, which is something that Evolve already does. If you can find a way to mix it with the off-color Battalion that would be the best use of it.
I also want to note that with Cipher, I would be looking for some very powerful defensive stuff to even consider Dimir. Things like "draw two cards" or "bounce target permanent" or "target player skips thier next combat phase". If Dimir focuses too much on mill, it won't be very popular.
EDIT:
Some people are saying that Cipher could get out of control. However, I see red and black getting more removal in this set. We shall see how removal-heavy this set is. But even if the set is removal-light, I'd counter Cipher with an aggressive Boros or midrange Gruul build anyway.
Turn "oh he doesn't have battalion" into "omg I'm dead now bleh".
Similarly, flash guys.
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
Perhaps most of the cards will be this way, but seeing as there is one card spoiled for Bloodrush and it doesn't work this way, I wouldn't be so quick to assume it is:
Rubblehulk
Rubblehulk's power and toughness are each equal to the number of lands you control.
Bloodrush - , Discard Rubblehulk: Target attacking creature gets +X/+X until end of turn, where X is the number of lands you control.
New to Commander? Read the Above article.
The +X/+Y bit is from the Mothership.
My Decks:
EDH: Sygg, River Cutthroat , Road to Scion
Grimgrin, Corpseborn
Modern: Polytokes
IRL: Progenitus Polymorph , Goblins
Just a friendly reminder that I will drive this car off a bridge
Older Magic as a Board Game: Panglacial Wurm , Mill
Yah, brain fart there, my bad.
New to Commander? Read the Above article.
Good points and, thinking ahead to Dragon's Maze, there's always Eyes in the Skies...
"Ha ha, your Batallion dude isn't going to do much all on his own!"
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
Older Magic as a Board Game: Panglacial Wurm , Mill
Source for this, please?
The simplest designs are the most obvious. There will be one with flying. Probably a 2/2 for 2WW.
Older Magic as a Board Game: Panglacial Wurm , Mill
I wonder if combat tricks will generally be less playable in a heavily Evolve based deck ...
Interesting point. I actually wouldn't be too surprised if gatecrash has a shortage of green combat tricks in general... as you pointed out, they don't play that well with Evolve, and I can't imagine wanting to draft many combat tricks in a typical Gruul deck (since not needing to play combat tricks that aren't also creature split cards is kind of the point of Bloodrush).
So the source is basically just your speculation? That seems way too powerful to me.
*DCI Rules Advisor*
Does Extort seem somewhat overpowered to anyone else? In a defensive minded deck with maybe a few evasive creatures, mid-late game spells get nuts if you have 3+ extort cards on the board and available mana. Its a possible 6 point life swing almost every turn.
Standard:
RW Boros devotion/Purphoros combo
RGB Jund Midrange
Modern:
WB Martyr.proc