This is false. a 2:1 ratio times four is 8:4 ratio. A 4:3 ratio times four is 16:12. Think twice is the clear victor in card advantage between the two.
Your math is really bad. They both net you a card when flashbacked. Only thing is that ravings can net you more virtual card advantage when it bins a flashback card or something like that. The clear victor is desperate ravings.
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Your math is really bad. They both net you a card when flashbacked. Only thing is that ravings can net you more virtual card advantage when it bins a flashback card or something like that. The clear victor is desperate ravings.
schooled at math by the 14 year old
but he is right. WHen you use think twice and desperate ravings, you only net one card PHYSICAL card advantage.
The advantage that you get from the discarded card CAN be more. Plus your digging deeper.
Another way you can net virtual card advantage is by storing cards you don't need in your hand, so there is a chance you will discard them when you play ravings.
Say you already have 6 lands out and don't need any more, so you keep 3 lands in your hand. Now you play a desperate ravings and there's a good chance you turn a dead card into a live card, getting 2 GOOD cards, making ravings sort of a draw 3 cards after flashback.
This is more the case later in the game, of course..
The card really is excellent. I run both Think Twice and Desperate Ravings in my UGR build, and I find myself always preferring to have desperate ravings. Desperate Ravings is a far better topdeck when my hand has cards that aren't useful to me at the moment, or a bunch of lands, etc. Think Twice matters more in control builds where individual card values fluctuate a lot, but if you're playing a deck where that's not as big of an issue, being able to dig a card deeper is huge.
Its a stats game. Desperate ravings draws 2, discards one. got a hand of lands? Whats the percentage you'll discard a useless card you had? So you just drew 2 new for 2. On the other hand you can draw 2 and lose your bomb. Pure risk/reward.
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Affinity
EDH:
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Karrthus (Dragons)
Bruna (Auras OP)
I've been playing Ravings for a couple of months now. It's way better than Think Twice. The only time that it's worse than Think Twice is when you've got all the answers in your hand already, but if you've already got the answers in your hand, you don't need to play Ravings. You'll make the game go longer then play it, which you will have time for.
Every other time you get to dig more, or essential mill yourself, which is very useful for decks with Snapcaster Mage and other flashback cards.
And I hate when other people say that you could lose your bomb. If I'm holding onto a bomb, then I don't need it at that time. It would be better off as something that would help me for the next two or three turns, rather then just a finisher that is going to sit in my hand. Finishers are used when you've already got control of the game, so you will generally either want to play it or be unhappy to see it. That means that if you lose it with Ravings, you either should have already played it or didn't want it.
Ravings is also a great mana fixer, much like Preordain or Ponder are.
Ravings is a great card. It digs deeper, even if it generates comparable CA. In a deck with a lot of flashback anyway, the discard isn't even a 'true' tradeoff. Ravings is definitely worth it if you're on color.
Your math is really bad. They both net you a card when flashbacked. Only thing is that ravings can net you more virtual card advantage when it bins a flashback card or something like that. The clear victor is desperate ravings.
Try reading the whole quote. Graveyard manipulation aside. If Graveyard manipulation is aside, each complete use/flashback of desperate ravings nets you 2 cards total, and you pitch another 5. Think twice nets you two cards total, and you pitch 1. Graveyard manipulation aside, desperate ravings is strictly worse card advantage as it can only buy you the same number of cards as think twice can but will thin your options far faster.
To those who sing DR praises, there are indeed decks where it's an amazing card. Usually UR decks that focus on delver and a boatload of instants and sorceries. These decks also have so much graveyard manipulation that you get bonus card advantage from pitching. I'm not denying that. What I am saying however, is that you lose tempo through use of this card over think twice.
Turn 2, on the play you have your two lands out. He passes EOT, what do you do? You can A, cast Desperate Ravings and risk putting that Mana Leak into the GY (also letting him see the mana leak gone), or you can B, hold on to it and not gain the card advantage yet. We decide it's worth the risk, and EOT the ravings because heck, we only have a 1 in 7 shot at pitching the leak and we could use our third land drop. You draw two, one is a land - and now you have a 1/3 shot at ditching a much needed card. Far more risk. Or what if you draw a land and another mana leak. Now your odds are 1/2 you're pitching something you don't want to.
This is just an example. Let's say you've got Liliana. You can't risk losing her T2 EOT for anything, because of the benefit of dropping her as a T3 house. Think twice is again a much better option since you gain the card advantage, and retain your tempo. If situations progress as normal, the only time it becomes "okay" to cast a desperate ravings is when your hand is empty, or you have no cards in hand that will benefit you in the current situation. Both cases are negative... so you can never use a Desperate Ravings as a "win more". Think Twice however is a win more at least half the time.
For those of you who say "DR is great at mana fixing!" it's an illusion. It could just as easily mana hose you. Yes, maybe you ended up keeping a two land draw, and EOT turn 2 ravings into a pair of land, and randomly ditched a fatty for recursion later. These situations are statistically as common to occur as your drawing into no land, or one land and ditching it, or two land and ditching one of them. And in the last two cases, a Think twice also bought you those land.
Without graveyard manipulation, Desperate ravings is strictly worse card advantage than Think Twice. Without graveyard manipulation, Desperate Ravings is strictly worse tempo than think twice. This thread wasn't to talk about the card in relation to UR burn, or solarflare style builds so much as it was to ask why someone would play the card over think twice in a non-GY based build.
I've witnessed too many people becoming fanbois of this instant, and plugging it into GR Kessigs, or even splashing for it in white weenie. If there's no GY manipulation, this card has no place in your deck.
Just like any card, Ravings belongs in "the right deck." You can't throw around colors to splash for a single card.
If you are playing Ravings, you need 4 things: a strong Red base to cast turn 2 Ravings consistently, Blue mana to flashback Ravings, 4 Snapcasters, and a high concentration of good instants and sorceries to flashback with Tiago. If those cards happen to have flashback costs of their own, all the better.
In other words, you're playing U/R/x, with 4 mana leaks and other counters and burn spells. Any third color must be secondary with, ideally, no double cost spells or you risk getting screwed.
That's about 45 cards out of your 60 right there, including land. Use the rest for win conditions/creatures.
Maths aside I've heard multiple pros say once you flashback DR, it gives you more CA than TT.
this is a fallacy. You have the same hand size. It gives you some extra virtual card advantage that you don't get from TT.
My only issue with the card is that it is bad when your really light on cards. Sure when you have 5-7 cards in hand the odds of having to pitch what you want to keep are low. However when you only have 2 cards in hand(during resolution) you have a 50/50 shot of pitching the wrong card. Sure it isn't bad if you have to action cards in hand, but if you have 1 wrath and 1 land it would really suck to pitch the wrath.
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this is a fallacy. You have the same hand size. It gives you some extra virtual card advantage that you don't get from TT.
My only issue with the card is that it is bad when your really light on cards. Sure when you have 5-7 cards in hand the odds of having to pitch what you want to keep are low. However when you only have 2 cards in hand(during resolution) you have a 50/50 shot of pitching the wrong card. Sure it isn't bad if you have to action cards in hand, but if you have 1 wrath and 1 land it would really suck to pitch the wrath.
I can't imagine a deck that would run Wrath and Ravings
Also, in that kind of deck, if you were down to 2 cards in hand and one of them was a wrath, that means you didn't have any reason to cast it at that moment anyway
this is a fallacy. You have the same hand size. It gives you some extra virtual card advantage that you don't get from TT.
My only issue with the card is that it is bad when your really light on cards. Sure when you have 5-7 cards in hand the odds of having to pitch what you want to keep are low. However when you only have 2 cards in hand(during resolution) you have a 50/50 shot of pitching the wrong card. Sure it isn't bad if you have to action cards in hand, but if you have 1 wrath and 1 land it would really suck to pitch the wrath.
How is that any different than Think Twice drawing you a land instead of a wrath? In empty hands Ravings is Think Twice with the graveyard component for 1 less total mana. The worst case scenario makes it still better than Think Twice. There is no disadvantage to Desperate Ravings unless you get milled to death. People are overly averse towards being milled. Unless it kills you it is not a weakness. Cards are usually more accessible from the graveyard than from your library.
If you are running multiple tutor effects then Think Twice might end up being better. However pod and WRR are the only decks in standard using tutors. WRR doesn't run blue and pod doesn't run red. Notice the tutors are both in green. It's going to take a meta dominated by Drownyards or the development of a RUG Primeval or Pod deck before Think Twice would be the better choice over Desperate Ravings.
If you have the cards you need, you don't cast ravings. You hold on to it.
To all the people saying you'll lose cards you need - this is not like TT at all. You TT when you have extra mana at EOT. You cast DR when you need to improve your hand.
I honestly like Desperate Ravings, and also Think Twice. In my opinion, it would be great to have See Beyond back for the slightly different approach. A new flashback version of See Beyond would be awesome!
I can't imagine a deck that would run Wrath and Ravings
Also, in that kind of deck, if you were down to 2 cards in hand and one of them was a wrath, that means you didn't have any reason to cast it at that moment anyway
Really because control likes mass removal and card draw. In my example you don't have the wrath in hand before the DR or you essentially have no reason for DR.
How is that any different than Think Twice drawing you a land instead of a wrath? In empty hands Ravings is Think Twice with the graveyard component for 1 less total mana. The worst case scenario makes it still better than Think Twice. There is no disadvantage to Desperate Ravings unless you get milled to death. People are overly averse towards being milled. Unless it kills you it is not a weakness. Cards are usually more accessible from the graveyard than from your library.
If you are running multiple tutor effects then Think Twice might end up being better. However pod and WRR are the only decks in standard using tutors. WRR doesn't run blue and pod doesn't run red. Notice the tutors are both in green. It's going to take a meta dominated by Drownyards or the development of a RUG Primeval or Pod deck before Think Twice would be the better choice over Desperate Ravings.
While several people are illogical when they look at the card I am not. In my example you top deck a DR. you draw the wrath for the first card and a land for the second card. In that instance TT would always net you a wrath while DR will only 50% of the time. I know that this is an extreme list of circumstances but the argument that it is absolutely better is false. At times TT is better especially if splashing red makes your deck worse.
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Millions of innocent men, women and children, since the introduction of Christianity, have been burnt, tortured, fined and imprisoned; yet we have not advanced one inch towards uniformity.
In my example you top deck a DR. you draw the wrath for the first card and a land for the second card. In that instance TT would always net you a wrath while DR will only 50% of the time. I know that this is an extreme list of circumstances but the argument that it is absolutely better is false. At times TT is better especially if splashing red makes your deck worse.
This is not only an extreme list of circumstances but also a probability fallacy. There is an equal chance that the Wrath is your second card as opposed to the first. The fact is BOTH TT and DR will net you an unknown card from your library that has the same chance of being Wrath (unless you Pondered or whatnot).
The reason that DR is so much more powerful than TT (ignoring the off-color mana costs for now) is that you can skew the probabilities your way by playing "correctly." If you are able to play the cards you need and keep the cards you don't, then the discard of DR has a chance to hit one of the cards you don't need as opposed to one of the two unknown cards you drew off the top.
Why is this so powerful for control decks? Because of the classic philosophy that "while there are no wrong threats, there are wrong answers." DR digs more deeply for a possible "right" answer that you need and can bin one of the "wrong" answers, especially if the game is at a later stage and the "wrong" answers are what you have in hand.
Really because control likes mass removal and card draw. In my example you don't have the wrath in hand before the DR or you essentially have no reason for DR.
While several people are illogical when they look at the card I am not. In my example you top deck a DR. you draw the wrath for the first card and a land for the second card. In that instance TT would always net you a wrath while DR will only 50% of the time. I know that this is an extreme list of circumstances but the argument that it is absolutely better is false. At times TT is better especially if splashing red makes your deck worse.
And what about the situations where the wrath is the 2nd card, or the 3rd card that you would draw next turn? There is ZERO mathematical difference between drawing from draw 1 and drawing from draw 2 discard 1 of the 2. As soon as you add in additional cards that could be discarded the draw 2 discard 1 becomes better. Yes there are possible situations that Desperate Ravings didn't work but I might as well just say it's possible to have your deck go Mana Leak, Think Twice, Wrath of God, Snapcaster, Seachrome Coast, Seachrome Coast, and then 20 more lands. You sure as hell wouldn't mulligan, but you lost that game. You can't use very specific situations to argue for either when that situation is no more likely to occur than the opposing situations that favor the opposite side. That's like saying that a bet for a 1-19 roll isn't better than a bet on a 20 roll. You would never play something with a 5% chance to win over something with a 95% chance to win, unless you cheat.
This is not only an extreme list of circumstances but also a probability fallacy. There is an equal chance that the Wrath is your second card as opposed to the first. The fact is BOTH TT and DR will net you an unknown card from your library that has the same chance of being Wrath (unless you Pondered or whatnot).
The reason that DR is so much more powerful than TT (ignoring the off-color mana costs for now) is that you can skew the probabilities your way by playing "correctly." If you are able to play the cards you need and keep the cards you don't, then the discard of DR has a chance to hit one of the cards you don't need as opposed to one of the two unknown cards you drew off the top.
Why is this so powerful for control decks? Because of the classic philosophy that "while there are no wrong threats, there are wrong answers." DR digs more deeply for a possible "right" answer that you need and can bin one of the "wrong" answers, especially if the game is at a later stage and the "wrong" answers are what you have in hand.
I understand all of this. I never said it wasn't good. All I said was it isn't better than think twice in all situations. honestly I though about splashing red in my UW deck mostly for this card. If only GQ wasn't so good right now.
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Millions of innocent men, women and children, since the introduction of Christianity, have been burnt, tortured, fined and imprisoned; yet we have not advanced one inch towards uniformity.
The card is good, but I don't think it is meant to be played in control decks. If you are wanting to play control, then you should probably play Think Twice, since that isn't used to dig for answers (most of the time), but instead gain CA. Then they can also play FA for deeper dig, if they need it. For aggro strats, I think this is def. better. This provides the dig necessary and can pitch the unnecessary cards.
As everyone so far has been so fond of noting, it can just as easily pitch the necessary cards. If you happen to subscribe to the belief that you will only play Desperate Ravings when your chances of pitching a necessary card are small (read small - this cannot be inexistant because you do not know the two drawn cards) you not only still have a chance of screwing yourself on the cast, but you're hosing yourself on tempo simply to allow for the lowest possible risk.
While think twice has two cards in your hand at the end of T3 while still retaining your ability to counter, Desperate Ravings sits in your hand unused for fear of the risk. Think twice is an early game card advantage. Desperate Ravings is just what it says it is... Desperate.
As everyone so far has been so fond of noting, it can just as easily pitch the necessary cards. If you happen to subscribe to the belief that you will only play Desperate Ravings when your chances of pitching a necessary card are small (read small - this cannot be inexistant because you do not know the two drawn cards) you not only still have a chance of screwing yourself on the cast, but you're hosing yourself on tempo simply to allow for the lowest possible risk.
While think twice has two cards in your hand at the end of T3 while still retaining your ability to counter, Desperate Ravings sits in your hand unused for fear of the risk. Think twice is an early game card advantage. Desperate Ravings is just what it says it is... Desperate.
Sorry but you don't really understand the current control decks and how they work. Desperate ravings is an awesome card, at least in the current card pool, pros and tournament players alike are in consensus on this. You with your general lack of very basic things like card advantage (the whole 2:1 - 4:3 is utter nonsense, each nets you 1 card advantage for the same mana and DR can net more virtual CA) give no additional insight or alternative argument. Just that it doesn't work in decks which are not designed to use it effectively (control decks work it in very well).
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Your math is really bad. They both net you a card when flashbacked. Only thing is that ravings can net you more virtual card advantage when it bins a flashback card or something like that. The clear victor is desperate ravings.
Standard:
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but he is right. WHen you use think twice and desperate ravings, you only net one card PHYSICAL card advantage.
The advantage that you get from the discarded card CAN be more. Plus your digging deeper.
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Maths aside I've heard multiple pros say once you flashback DR, it gives you more CA than TT.
Say you already have 6 lands out and don't need any more, so you keep 3 lands in your hand. Now you play a desperate ravings and there's a good chance you turn a dead card into a live card, getting 2 GOOD cards, making ravings sort of a draw 3 cards after flashback.
This is more the case later in the game, of course..
Modern:
Affinity
EDH:
Rhys (Tokens)
Karrthus (Dragons)
Bruna (Auras OP)
Every other time you get to dig more, or essential mill yourself, which is very useful for decks with Snapcaster Mage and other flashback cards.
And I hate when other people say that you could lose your bomb. If I'm holding onto a bomb, then I don't need it at that time. It would be better off as something that would help me for the next two or three turns, rather then just a finisher that is going to sit in my hand. Finishers are used when you've already got control of the game, so you will generally either want to play it or be unhappy to see it. That means that if you lose it with Ravings, you either should have already played it or didn't want it.
Ravings is also a great mana fixer, much like Preordain or Ponder are.
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Try reading the whole quote. Graveyard manipulation aside. If Graveyard manipulation is aside, each complete use/flashback of desperate ravings nets you 2 cards total, and you pitch another 5. Think twice nets you two cards total, and you pitch 1. Graveyard manipulation aside, desperate ravings is strictly worse card advantage as it can only buy you the same number of cards as think twice can but will thin your options far faster.
To those who sing DR praises, there are indeed decks where it's an amazing card. Usually UR decks that focus on delver and a boatload of instants and sorceries. These decks also have so much graveyard manipulation that you get bonus card advantage from pitching. I'm not denying that. What I am saying however, is that you lose tempo through use of this card over think twice.
Turn 2, on the play you have your two lands out. He passes EOT, what do you do? You can A, cast Desperate Ravings and risk putting that Mana Leak into the GY (also letting him see the mana leak gone), or you can B, hold on to it and not gain the card advantage yet. We decide it's worth the risk, and EOT the ravings because heck, we only have a 1 in 7 shot at pitching the leak and we could use our third land drop. You draw two, one is a land - and now you have a 1/3 shot at ditching a much needed card. Far more risk. Or what if you draw a land and another mana leak. Now your odds are 1/2 you're pitching something you don't want to.
This is just an example. Let's say you've got Liliana. You can't risk losing her T2 EOT for anything, because of the benefit of dropping her as a T3 house. Think twice is again a much better option since you gain the card advantage, and retain your tempo. If situations progress as normal, the only time it becomes "okay" to cast a desperate ravings is when your hand is empty, or you have no cards in hand that will benefit you in the current situation. Both cases are negative... so you can never use a Desperate Ravings as a "win more". Think Twice however is a win more at least half the time.
For those of you who say "DR is great at mana fixing!" it's an illusion. It could just as easily mana hose you. Yes, maybe you ended up keeping a two land draw, and EOT turn 2 ravings into a pair of land, and randomly ditched a fatty for recursion later. These situations are statistically as common to occur as your drawing into no land, or one land and ditching it, or two land and ditching one of them. And in the last two cases, a Think twice also bought you those land.
Without graveyard manipulation, Desperate ravings is strictly worse card advantage than Think Twice. Without graveyard manipulation, Desperate Ravings is strictly worse tempo than think twice. This thread wasn't to talk about the card in relation to UR burn, or solarflare style builds so much as it was to ask why someone would play the card over think twice in a non-GY based build.
I've witnessed too many people becoming fanbois of this instant, and plugging it into GR Kessigs, or even splashing for it in white weenie. If there's no GY manipulation, this card has no place in your deck.
If you are playing Ravings, you need 4 things: a strong Red base to cast turn 2 Ravings consistently, Blue mana to flashback Ravings, 4 Snapcasters, and a high concentration of good instants and sorceries to flashback with Tiago. If those cards happen to have flashback costs of their own, all the better.
In other words, you're playing U/R/x, with 4 mana leaks and other counters and burn spells. Any third color must be secondary with, ideally, no double cost spells or you risk getting screwed.
That's about 45 cards out of your 60 right there, including land. Use the rest for win conditions/creatures.
this is a fallacy. You have the same hand size. It gives you some extra virtual card advantage that you don't get from TT.
My only issue with the card is that it is bad when your really light on cards. Sure when you have 5-7 cards in hand the odds of having to pitch what you want to keep are low. However when you only have 2 cards in hand(during resolution) you have a 50/50 shot of pitching the wrong card. Sure it isn't bad if you have to action cards in hand, but if you have 1 wrath and 1 land it would really suck to pitch the wrath.
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I can't imagine a deck that would run Wrath and Ravings
Also, in that kind of deck, if you were down to 2 cards in hand and one of them was a wrath, that means you didn't have any reason to cast it at that moment anyway
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How is that any different than Think Twice drawing you a land instead of a wrath? In empty hands Ravings is Think Twice with the graveyard component for 1 less total mana. The worst case scenario makes it still better than Think Twice. There is no disadvantage to Desperate Ravings unless you get milled to death. People are overly averse towards being milled. Unless it kills you it is not a weakness. Cards are usually more accessible from the graveyard than from your library.
If you are running multiple tutor effects then Think Twice might end up being better. However pod and WRR are the only decks in standard using tutors. WRR doesn't run blue and pod doesn't run red. Notice the tutors are both in green. It's going to take a meta dominated by Drownyards or the development of a RUG Primeval or Pod deck before Think Twice would be the better choice over Desperate Ravings.
To all the people saying you'll lose cards you need - this is not like TT at all. You TT when you have extra mana at EOT. You cast DR when you need to improve your hand.
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Really because control likes mass removal and card draw. In my example you don't have the wrath in hand before the DR or you essentially have no reason for DR.
While several people are illogical when they look at the card I am not. In my example you top deck a DR. you draw the wrath for the first card and a land for the second card. In that instance TT would always net you a wrath while DR will only 50% of the time. I know that this is an extreme list of circumstances but the argument that it is absolutely better is false. At times TT is better especially if splashing red makes your deck worse.
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This is not only an extreme list of circumstances but also a probability fallacy. There is an equal chance that the Wrath is your second card as opposed to the first. The fact is BOTH TT and DR will net you an unknown card from your library that has the same chance of being Wrath (unless you Pondered or whatnot).
The reason that DR is so much more powerful than TT (ignoring the off-color mana costs for now) is that you can skew the probabilities your way by playing "correctly." If you are able to play the cards you need and keep the cards you don't, then the discard of DR has a chance to hit one of the cards you don't need as opposed to one of the two unknown cards you drew off the top.
Why is this so powerful for control decks? Because of the classic philosophy that "while there are no wrong threats, there are wrong answers." DR digs more deeply for a possible "right" answer that you need and can bin one of the "wrong" answers, especially if the game is at a later stage and the "wrong" answers are what you have in hand.
And what about the situations where the wrath is the 2nd card, or the 3rd card that you would draw next turn? There is ZERO mathematical difference between drawing from draw 1 and drawing from draw 2 discard 1 of the 2. As soon as you add in additional cards that could be discarded the draw 2 discard 1 becomes better. Yes there are possible situations that Desperate Ravings didn't work but I might as well just say it's possible to have your deck go Mana Leak, Think Twice, Wrath of God, Snapcaster, Seachrome Coast, Seachrome Coast, and then 20 more lands. You sure as hell wouldn't mulligan, but you lost that game. You can't use very specific situations to argue for either when that situation is no more likely to occur than the opposing situations that favor the opposite side. That's like saying that a bet for a 1-19 roll isn't better than a bet on a 20 roll. You would never play something with a 5% chance to win over something with a 95% chance to win, unless you cheat.
I understand all of this. I never said it wasn't good. All I said was it isn't better than think twice in all situations. honestly I though about splashing red in my UW deck mostly for this card. If only GQ wasn't so good right now.
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While think twice has two cards in your hand at the end of T3 while still retaining your ability to counter, Desperate Ravings sits in your hand unused for fear of the risk. Think twice is an early game card advantage. Desperate Ravings is just what it says it is... Desperate.
Sorry but you don't really understand the current control decks and how they work. Desperate ravings is an awesome card, at least in the current card pool, pros and tournament players alike are in consensus on this. You with your general lack of very basic things like card advantage (the whole 2:1 - 4:3 is utter nonsense, each nets you 1 card advantage for the same mana and DR can net more virtual CA) give no additional insight or alternative argument. Just that it doesn't work in decks which are not designed to use it effectively (control decks work it in very well).