So I primarily stick to swiss queues, as a means of practicing the new format, learning new stuff, etc. But in virtually every format I do, this one included, there will come a point that I can reliably 2-1 or 3-0 most of the time in swiss (it's been about 90% ish for M14). However, whatever it is I'm doing right in swiss queues never seems to transfer over to 8-4s; I pretty much can never ever make the finals short of some extreme luck (opponents mulling a lot, opening lots of insane stuff in 1 color, etc). I really want to be able to practice at a higher level, but at the same time, its hard to do financially - in swiss, I could reliably expect to only pay about $3-5 per draft, 8-4 its double or triple that as I never win any packs.
As far as the actual drafting/gameplay, in swiss I generally can clearly read an open color and move into it, but that doesn't seem to be the case for 8-4s. In any given pack I don't see anything that "shouldn't be there", every card's power level feels appropriate for where I am in the pack. Other player's decks aren't huge piles of bombs or anything, but I do get the sense that my deck is slightly behind. I'll have more games where it just seems my opponent has all the answers, and I'm completely out-tempo'ed and powerless; usually, in swiss, the roles are reversed and I'm the one setting the pace of the game.
That being said, I plan on going back and looking over some draftcaps and maybe posting them for critique, but I have the sense there may be a larger problem here. It seems odd to me that I plateau at the same point all of the time. I'd really like to get to the next level, so to speak, but again, I simply cannot afford to play in 8-4s without being able to make the finals at least, say, a third of the time...but I can't seem to even do that! On paper, I shouldn't be COMPLETELY out of my league, since I seem to be ahead of the curve in swiss...but I'm clearly behind in 8-4s. Ergo, what's a middle of the road drafter to do?
4-3-2-2 drafts. Problem with this isn't more skill required its that you have to win round one. On youtube you can watch tons of pros do drafts and they lose round 1 half the time. Doing Swiss you get to get 2 packs still if your good and win the rest. But like a draft I did round one I went 1-2. So I got nothing. Sometimes round one I will 2-0. No one makes money drafting. You can read this on every guide it mtgo or in person. It's more of a break even format unless your playing against newbs. If your really good you might win 6 out of 10 drafts and if your really good and get lucky 7 out of 10 drafts. Problem is losing that round one. See you tubers do it all the time and pros all the time. That's when your greatful you did Swiss and got 2 packs.
I for some reason do much better drafting in person then online. So I tend to do drafts in person only. For some reason I have a harder time focusing online and playing my best because to me it's not the real thing.
8-4 do a couple If you win both dont play anymore and quit while your ahead
If you consider yourself a "middle of the road drafter" (as do I) my suggestion to you is to ignore 8-4s. There are too many players who are devoting way more time and money than you to this activity and therefore have a significant competitive advantage over you because of that experience. Swiss is probably the most fun choice for a middle of the road drafter.
Basically I never want to spend money to play against a guy who is on the tour, drafts 4 times a day, and tests the format extensively with his tour buddies. I have no aspirations to ever be better than "that guy" so I don't really want to compete with him, and he's usually going to be playing 8-4.
I for some reason do much better drafting in person then online.
Everyone does. The level of competition online is much higher than any individual paper draft. You might think it's a focus issue but really your opponents are just better online unless you paper draft with tour level pros.
I'm in your boat, for the most part, and my decision was ultimately to stick with Swiss for one main reason: I play to play. Nothing gets my goat more than paying through a draft, sitting through the draft, and then losing in round 1.
Also, I don't think the skill levels are as disparate as you think from Swiss to 8-4s. Sure, there's a bit, but not so drastic, IMO... it just seems that way because every round one or two loss is a total wash and really sticks with you.
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Yeah I have won 8/4 online and haven't seen great skill level every time. Usually no matter half the format half the players aren't dedicated and sometimes are new players. 8/4 may attract a couple more regulars but they still have to pay like everyone else and sometimes they get man screwed and knocked out round one the same as everyone. No wins 8:10 or 9/10 drafts. Impossible. This ain't chess. Guy next to you might have opened two khalani hydra and gets passed triple of ech green sliver triple hexproof and troll hides. It happens and that person may still lose round one.
8-4 just sucks cause if you do lose especially because of a luck factor it really sucks. But there is no profit in winning 2 packs at all. Even 4 barely covers it. So unless you plan on getting first I'd stay out of draft. I like my $10 in person drafts winner takes picks at rares and gets 2 packs and 1 to second.
I exclusively draft 8-4s. I consider myself a solid drafter, but by no means amazing. I don't have the time to put in the repetitions to be awesome.
I find reading signals and drafting with players in Swiss queues to be aggravating.
At least in 8-4s the experiences the OP describes are relatively consistent. No one gets passed a completely bonkers deck due to being seated to the left of multiple really bad drafters.
Please don't go play 4-3-2-2s They are bad EV in 98% of cases. Signals are more subtle in 8-4s. They don't scream at you. If you are having a better time in Swiss queues, then play there. If you want to play in 8-4s for a while, you will get better and it will likely cost you more to draft. Whether that is worth it to you is a question you have to ask yourself.
If you consider yourself a "middle of the road drafter" (as do I) my suggestion to you is to ignore 8-4s. There are too many players who are devoting way more time and money than you to this activity and therefore have a significant competitive advantage over you because of that experience. Swiss is probably the most fun choice for a middle of the road drafter.
You're normally correct, which is why I default to Swiss. However, while I am a mid-tier drafter right now, I want to be able to step up my game. I've managed to do 20 drafts of the set, and a half a dozen sealeds already...I find it hard to believe many people could do substantially more then that (like 40+ drafts) without breaking the bank and still going to a paying job each day.
Also, I don't think the skill levels are as disparate as you think from Swiss to 8-4s. Sure, there's a bit, but not so drastic, IMO... it just seems that way because every round one or two loss is a total wash and really sticks with you.
Well I don't think there is a HUGE difference...but it is there. I don't see as many opponents with obvious train-wreck decks in 8-4s. People in swiss queues let powerful cards slide into later picks more - its these late pick good cards that let me find colors. This doesn't happen much in 8-4s. Like I said before, I don't think 8-4 players magically are getting all the bombs or anything. But I do feel distinctly behind the curve, and I want to close that gap.
Signals are more subtle in 8-4s.
I couldn't agree more - and I'm clearly not seeing them, and that's exactly what I want to learn. I'm looking for some kind of advice to better calibrate my signal reading so as to pick up on things better. Also, its possible I always am the one getting the completely bonkers deck in the swiss queues... now I need to learn how to get something that's at least above the curve in an 8-4 environment, but I really just don't know how at this point. This is the kind of stuff I'm looking for information on - how to read more subtle signals, and what it takes to make a deck that's above the curve without ridiculous amounts of bombs/removal falling into your lap.
As a final note... I think the difference in results may also be related to how colors are evaluated in each type of draft. For some reason, in swiss drafts, blue is almost always open, and I can regularly go 2-1 or 3-0 with some kind of Ux control deck. However, blue is not obviously open in the few 8-4s I've done. That tends to indicate to me that other drafters in Swiss queues are under-valuing blue, and I'm getting rewarded by having correct evaluations. In contrast the other 8-4 players aren't under-valuing blue, ergo I lose a significant edge I had vs the Swiss Queue field.
My recommendation would be to post your draftcaps in the draftcap discussion subforum. If you do that every time you lose in the first round you'll get much better advice about weaknesses in your drafting than you will talking in general, abstract terms about it in this thread.
(Yes, I know everyone seems to use that subforum to post their 3-0 drafts. Technically that's allowed too, it's just not as useful. ;))
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About skill disparity, I did a sample of limited ratings of each type of queue, taking 56 samples per queue. The average limited rating I found was 1724 for 8-4, 1634 for 4322, and 1638 for swiss. This shows that 8-4 players are quite a bit better than others, however they are not all godly 1850+s.
The fact that 4322 players and swiss players are so close in skill level combined with the pay structure of 4322 queues (and some math and structuring not shown here but done in a spreadsheet) means that players who are ~1710+ will get better prizes from 4322s than swiss. If you'd like to know, the point of intersection where 8-4 becomes better than 4322 according to this sampling is around 1810.
(Opinion) Sealed is far less confusing than draft. You don't have to worry about signalling. You only deal with card evaluation, not the crazy level of potential what-if scenarios of draft. If you don't have a grip on limited, and it sounds like you don't, sealed will be an easier place to find that grip.
The average limited rating I found was 1724 for 8-4, 1634 for 4322, and 1638 for swiss. This shows that 8-4 players are quite a bit better than others, however they are not all godly 1850+s.
My rating tend to hover in the 1675-1725 area. So my instincts are right - I did have a significant edge in swiss drafts, and probably would in 4322s...perhaps I really should give those a try. If nothing else, I'd get more used to the single elim format, and the slightly higher payout might help me stockpile enough packs to give 8-4s another try later.
This is the EV from drafts comparing win% to packs gained. When you outgrow swiss you should go right to 8-4. At no point above swiss should you do 4322 instead, it is still a single elim format where you get nothing for scrubbing out, it's simply taken an entire pack out of the payout pool (4322=11, 8-4=12, swiss/3222111=12) to insure that it's always sub par in the long term.
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Better prizes attract better players but I perform and win just as often in Swiss as I do in 8-4. Out of 5 of each I won about 3 of each. Didn't see a difficulty difference. In fact my first 8-4 was the easiest 3-0 where in my first Swiss I we t 1-2 and every match went to game 3. There is no evidence to support one is harder is just say to with Swiss for your first $100 then move on.
Still comes back to the question I mentioned in my last post - how do you learn to read more subtle signals without dumping huge amounts of money into no-prize, 1 round 8-4s? I'll admit, I'm somewhat skeptical of what analysis of a draftcap can tell me past the first pack; if for some reason the first few picks "should" have been different, then the whole rest of the draft looks completely different. Also, as a sidenote...how early is it appropriate to be committed to your colors in the context of an 8-4 draft? When should I consider a ship to have sailed, so to speak? I continuously end up in a color that looks sort of open in pack 1, yet a different color will flow in pack 3, and I'll have a mediocre/meh deck. In swiss this never happens all that much, colors don't suddenly switch on/off like that for whatever reason.
I'll admit, I'm somewhat skeptical of what analysis of a draftcap can tell me past the first pack; if for some reason the first few picks "should" have been different, then the whole rest of the draft looks completely different.
Two things about that:
1) If the whole rest of your draft looks different, that might mean you drafted the wrong deck. Don't you think that might be important? (Maybe even way, way more important than these mythical "subtle signals".)
2) It costs nothing to try, assuming you're doing drafts anyway.
Also, people reading such threads quite often continue with critique of later picks as though they had made the earlier picks of the drafter who posted the thread. It's not unusual to get useful feedback on as many as a dozen picks.
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I usually do 8-4s, unless I haven't drafted the format before or if I feel like drafting a weird strategy (or if I'm playing clan drafts), in which case I'm doing Swiss.
8-4s are definitely tougher than Swiss, no contest. You'll run into bad players in 8-4s too, of course, but encountering good to excellent players happens at a rate that is many times higher than in Swiss queues. You have to play tighter (I'm more concentrated when I play 8-4s, I take notes, etc), and basically think through things more carefully. You'll also end up with fewer playables on average, since fewer bad cards are misevaluated by the table & there is often more willingness to switch colors. On the other hand, people don't hatedraft and raredraft as much, so you're more likely to see a sweet bomb coming your way 4th pick if you're in the right colors.
LadyLuck, part of the problem you're describing (and that I've also experienced) is that 8-4 drafts have considerably more variance than Swiss Drafts. Yes, there is definitely a difference in play levels, but there's also a difference in how often you get "rewarded" for drafting. Two-thirds of the time (if not more) that you "succeed" in a Swiss draft by going 2-1, you would not make it to the finals if the draft was an 8-4. I've had many draft decks that looked to me like a hot mess that lost in the first round and then beat similarly bad decks in the next two rounds. This is compounded by the fact that losing early in an 8-4 takes less time than doing so in a Swiss draft, and so you can play more (and spend more) if time is a limiting factor (which it usually is).
The other part of the problem you describe is that even the moderate difference in skill level between formats, when applied to a different payout structure, makes the draft experience very different. In Swiss, your deck is going to be more rewarded for consistency and less for pure power. In an 8-4, the reverse is true. This has quite a few implications. It seems to me that reading signals is slightly different. Instead of just looking for open colors, you should also be looking for "open archetypes." I remember being really surprised, and then impressed when going over the draft picks at the recent Worlds. For example, I remember Ben Stark drafted an P1P3 Act of Treason (as his first red card), which shocked me, as I NEVER would have made that pick. And yet he saw this as a clear sign that the RB Sacrifice Archetype was open from his right. And he moved in on it hard (taking cards early that I usually see wheel in Swiss) and was rewarded with a 3-0 draft pod. This is one example of why he's considered the best drafter in the world.
Obviously this is at least a few levels of play higher than your average 8-4 (where I think you could still often wheel the Act). But you get the idea - at higher levels you have to reevaluate cards more based on their synergies in the set rather than on a pure power basis. This is not to be saying you should take a bad card over a good one. But given a choice between a card that's always going to be just OK and one that's either great or unplayable depending on the deck it's in... I think you're going to be rewarded much more often by going for the big upside.
As for how to make this adjustment without breaking the bank - it's going to take time. You'll spend that time drafting 8-4's as your budget allows until you get the hang of the format. I would not recommend mixing formats, as it will get you into bad habits. You can speed up this progression by taking notes, posting and discussing draftcaps, or watching good players stream 8-4's. Good luck!
I think all of the discussion in this thread about whether color signals are more or less clear needs a disclaimer about what format it refers to. I do nothing but 8-4s, probably 10 drafts a week on average, and currently draft only DGR, because M14 doesn't interest me at all. And the DGR 8-4s right now are weird. It seems like just about everyone is drafting slow 4-color control with tons of gates. Maybe that means someone could just clean house by drafting a 2 color aggro deck and smashing face. And yet I just have barely seen that happen at all.
I think maybe right now all the really serious pros and aspiring pros are drafting M14, because that's what the GPs and so forth are right now, and the casual players are either drafting other formats or the DGR swiss, so the DGR 8-4s are solid players who are not afraid of an 8-4, but who are picking DGR over M14 specifically because they enjoy durdly multicolor decks rather than focused 1- or 2- color decks. Which, come to speak of it, describes me pretty well.
I feel like I'm in the same boat as OP - generally do well in Swiss (almost always 2-1/3-0) and yet 8-4s I typically underperform - for a lot of the same reasons. I'd love to practice more in 8-4s and play against better players but money and time is always a constricting issue.
I can't help you with the reading signals aspect, because I run into the exact same problems - that Pick 7 Claustrophobia/Chandra's Outrage in Swiss (extreme example but it happens a lot) that lets me move into blue or red is never there in 8-4 and more than that, by Pick 6 or 7, the cards always seem like unplayable jank.
What I usually do for queues is every time I win a Swiss, I'll then do an 8-4 as my next draft. If I win that I'll do another - but that's rare. This lets me do some 8-4s without breaking the bank. I'll never do 4-3-2-2s. Too much potential to lose to mana screw/mulling to oblivion without the reward of playing against better players.
Also - is by any chance your MTGO name LadyofLuck? We played in the finals last night of a Swiss. Your deck was awesome and completely outclassed mine haha.
Also - is by any chance your MTGO name LadyofLuck? We played in the finals last night of a Swiss. Your deck was awesome and completely outclassed mine haha.
Small world - was that the one with Primeval Bounty by any chance...? But the "awesome deck" deal I think is at least part of the problem, for me. In swiss I completely outdraft the rest of the table, thus leading to consistent 2-1s or 3-0s. When my deck isn't far and above everyone else's, I do much worse (8-4s and Sealed). It might be that my drafting in 8-4s isn't bad per se, but merely average - my technical play skills lag behind, and that's where I need to focus my efforts. Ergo I plan on grinding the phantom sealed queues a whole bunch when they go up, because sealed sort of "handicaps" my deck such that I have to work on the technical play. I've also figured I might as well stick to 3-0ing Swiss a ton, because at this rate I'll get to qualify for the MOCS for the first time :D.
About skill disparity, I did a sample of limited ratings of each type of queue, taking 56 samples per queue. The average limited rating I found was 1724 for 8-4, 1634 for 4322, and 1638 for swiss. This shows that 8-4 players are quite a bit better than others, however they are not all godly 1850+s.
The fact that 4322 players and swiss players are so close in skill level combined with the pay structure of 4322 queues (and some math and structuring not shown here but done in a spreadsheet) means that players who are ~1710+ will get better prizes from 4322s than swiss. If you'd like to know, the point of intersection where 8-4 becomes better than 4322 according to this sampling is around 1810.
(Opinion) Sealed is far less confusing than draft. You don't have to worry about signalling. You only deal with card evaluation, not the crazy level of potential what-if scenarios of draft. If you don't have a grip on limited, and it sounds like you don't, sealed will be an easier place to find that grip.
I call baloney on your so-called stats. I have played several 4-3-2-2s and the skill level is much, much, higher than Swiss. I don't see things like P2P10 Serra angels flying around in a 4322, something that just happened to me in a Swiss draft, albeit a release swiss draft.
I call baloney on your so-called stats. I have played several 4-3-2-2s and the skill level is much, much, higher than Swiss. I don't see things like P2P10 Serra angels flying around in a 4322, something that just happened to me in a Swiss draft, albeit a release swiss draft.
Unless he's fabricating his data, I would trust that over your anecdotal experience and a sample size of n=1 Serra Angel. Also note that averages mask outliers -- a couple of idiots screwing up one table is not necessarily representative of every table.
I've never found the difficulty of Swiss vs. 4322 to be noticeably different.
Unless he's fabricating his data, I would trust that over your anecdotal experience and a sample size of n=1 Serra Angel.
I was about to say the same thing. Statistics > gut feeling. I would be inclined to go either way on this myself, but with with statistical evidence provided, that's enough for me.
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As far as the actual drafting/gameplay, in swiss I generally can clearly read an open color and move into it, but that doesn't seem to be the case for 8-4s. In any given pack I don't see anything that "shouldn't be there", every card's power level feels appropriate for where I am in the pack. Other player's decks aren't huge piles of bombs or anything, but I do get the sense that my deck is slightly behind. I'll have more games where it just seems my opponent has all the answers, and I'm completely out-tempo'ed and powerless; usually, in swiss, the roles are reversed and I'm the one setting the pace of the game.
That being said, I plan on going back and looking over some draftcaps and maybe posting them for critique, but I have the sense there may be a larger problem here. It seems odd to me that I plateau at the same point all of the time. I'd really like to get to the next level, so to speak, but again, I simply cannot afford to play in 8-4s without being able to make the finals at least, say, a third of the time...but I can't seem to even do that! On paper, I shouldn't be COMPLETELY out of my league, since I seem to be ahead of the curve in swiss...but I'm clearly behind in 8-4s. Ergo, what's a middle of the road drafter to do?
I for some reason do much better drafting in person then online. So I tend to do drafts in person only. For some reason I have a harder time focusing online and playing my best because to me it's not the real thing.
8-4 do a couple If you win both dont play anymore and quit while your ahead
Basically I never want to spend money to play against a guy who is on the tour, drafts 4 times a day, and tests the format extensively with his tour buddies. I have no aspirations to ever be better than "that guy" so I don't really want to compete with him, and he's usually going to be playing 8-4.
Everyone does. The level of competition online is much higher than any individual paper draft. You might think it's a focus issue but really your opponents are just better online unless you paper draft with tour level pros.
Also, I don't think the skill levels are as disparate as you think from Swiss to 8-4s. Sure, there's a bit, but not so drastic, IMO... it just seems that way because every round one or two loss is a total wash and really sticks with you.
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8-4 just sucks cause if you do lose especially because of a luck factor it really sucks. But there is no profit in winning 2 packs at all. Even 4 barely covers it. So unless you plan on getting first I'd stay out of draft. I like my $10 in person drafts winner takes picks at rares and gets 2 packs and 1 to second.
I find reading signals and drafting with players in Swiss queues to be aggravating.
At least in 8-4s the experiences the OP describes are relatively consistent. No one gets passed a completely bonkers deck due to being seated to the left of multiple really bad drafters.
Please don't go play 4-3-2-2s They are bad EV in 98% of cases. Signals are more subtle in 8-4s. They don't scream at you. If you are having a better time in Swiss queues, then play there. If you want to play in 8-4s for a while, you will get better and it will likely cost you more to draft. Whether that is worth it to you is a question you have to ask yourself.
You're normally correct, which is why I default to Swiss. However, while I am a mid-tier drafter right now, I want to be able to step up my game. I've managed to do 20 drafts of the set, and a half a dozen sealeds already...I find it hard to believe many people could do substantially more then that (like 40+ drafts) without breaking the bank and still going to a paying job each day.
Well I don't think there is a HUGE difference...but it is there. I don't see as many opponents with obvious train-wreck decks in 8-4s. People in swiss queues let powerful cards slide into later picks more - its these late pick good cards that let me find colors. This doesn't happen much in 8-4s. Like I said before, I don't think 8-4 players magically are getting all the bombs or anything. But I do feel distinctly behind the curve, and I want to close that gap.
I couldn't agree more - and I'm clearly not seeing them, and that's exactly what I want to learn. I'm looking for some kind of advice to better calibrate my signal reading so as to pick up on things better. Also, its possible I always am the one getting the completely bonkers deck in the swiss queues... now I need to learn how to get something that's at least above the curve in an 8-4 environment, but I really just don't know how at this point. This is the kind of stuff I'm looking for information on - how to read more subtle signals, and what it takes to make a deck that's above the curve without ridiculous amounts of bombs/removal falling into your lap.
As a final note... I think the difference in results may also be related to how colors are evaluated in each type of draft. For some reason, in swiss drafts, blue is almost always open, and I can regularly go 2-1 or 3-0 with some kind of Ux control deck. However, blue is not obviously open in the few 8-4s I've done. That tends to indicate to me that other drafters in Swiss queues are under-valuing blue, and I'm getting rewarded by having correct evaluations. In contrast the other 8-4 players aren't under-valuing blue, ergo I lose a significant edge I had vs the Swiss Queue field.
(Yes, I know everyone seems to use that subforum to post their 3-0 drafts. Technically that's allowed too, it's just not as useful. ;))
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About skill disparity, I did a sample of limited ratings of each type of queue, taking 56 samples per queue. The average limited rating I found was 1724 for 8-4, 1634 for 4322, and 1638 for swiss. This shows that 8-4 players are quite a bit better than others, however they are not all godly 1850+s.
The fact that 4322 players and swiss players are so close in skill level combined with the pay structure of 4322 queues (and some math and structuring not shown here but done in a spreadsheet) means that players who are ~1710+ will get better prizes from 4322s than swiss. If you'd like to know, the point of intersection where 8-4 becomes better than 4322 according to this sampling is around 1810.
(Opinion) Sealed is far less confusing than draft. You don't have to worry about signalling. You only deal with card evaluation, not the crazy level of potential what-if scenarios of draft. If you don't have a grip on limited, and it sounds like you don't, sealed will be an easier place to find that grip.
My rating tend to hover in the 1675-1725 area. So my instincts are right - I did have a significant edge in swiss drafts, and probably would in 4322s...perhaps I really should give those a try. If nothing else, I'd get more used to the single elim format, and the slightly higher payout might help me stockpile enough packs to give 8-4s another try later.
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Two things about that:
1) If the whole rest of your draft looks different, that might mean you drafted the wrong deck. Don't you think that might be important? (Maybe even way, way more important than these mythical "subtle signals".)
2) It costs nothing to try, assuming you're doing drafts anyway.
Also, people reading such threads quite often continue with critique of later picks as though they had made the earlier picks of the drafter who posted the thread. It's not unusual to get useful feedback on as many as a dozen picks.
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MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
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8-4s are definitely tougher than Swiss, no contest. You'll run into bad players in 8-4s too, of course, but encountering good to excellent players happens at a rate that is many times higher than in Swiss queues. You have to play tighter (I'm more concentrated when I play 8-4s, I take notes, etc), and basically think through things more carefully. You'll also end up with fewer playables on average, since fewer bad cards are misevaluated by the table & there is often more willingness to switch colors. On the other hand, people don't hatedraft and raredraft as much, so you're more likely to see a sweet bomb coming your way 4th pick if you're in the right colors.
The other part of the problem you describe is that even the moderate difference in skill level between formats, when applied to a different payout structure, makes the draft experience very different. In Swiss, your deck is going to be more rewarded for consistency and less for pure power. In an 8-4, the reverse is true. This has quite a few implications. It seems to me that reading signals is slightly different. Instead of just looking for open colors, you should also be looking for "open archetypes." I remember being really surprised, and then impressed when going over the draft picks at the recent Worlds. For example, I remember Ben Stark drafted an P1P3 Act of Treason (as his first red card), which shocked me, as I NEVER would have made that pick. And yet he saw this as a clear sign that the RB Sacrifice Archetype was open from his right. And he moved in on it hard (taking cards early that I usually see wheel in Swiss) and was rewarded with a 3-0 draft pod. This is one example of why he's considered the best drafter in the world.
Obviously this is at least a few levels of play higher than your average 8-4 (where I think you could still often wheel the Act). But you get the idea - at higher levels you have to reevaluate cards more based on their synergies in the set rather than on a pure power basis. This is not to be saying you should take a bad card over a good one. But given a choice between a card that's always going to be just OK and one that's either great or unplayable depending on the deck it's in... I think you're going to be rewarded much more often by going for the big upside.
As for how to make this adjustment without breaking the bank - it's going to take time. You'll spend that time drafting 8-4's as your budget allows until you get the hang of the format. I would not recommend mixing formats, as it will get you into bad habits. You can speed up this progression by taking notes, posting and discussing draftcaps, or watching good players stream 8-4's. Good luck!
I think maybe right now all the really serious pros and aspiring pros are drafting M14, because that's what the GPs and so forth are right now, and the casual players are either drafting other formats or the DGR swiss, so the DGR 8-4s are solid players who are not afraid of an 8-4, but who are picking DGR over M14 specifically because they enjoy durdly multicolor decks rather than focused 1- or 2- color decks. Which, come to speak of it, describes me pretty well.
I can't help you with the reading signals aspect, because I run into the exact same problems - that Pick 7 Claustrophobia/Chandra's Outrage in Swiss (extreme example but it happens a lot) that lets me move into blue or red is never there in 8-4 and more than that, by Pick 6 or 7, the cards always seem like unplayable jank.
What I usually do for queues is every time I win a Swiss, I'll then do an 8-4 as my next draft. If I win that I'll do another - but that's rare. This lets me do some 8-4s without breaking the bank. I'll never do 4-3-2-2s. Too much potential to lose to mana screw/mulling to oblivion without the reward of playing against better players.
Also - is by any chance your MTGO name LadyofLuck? We played in the finals last night of a Swiss. Your deck was awesome and completely outclassed mine haha.
Small world - was that the one with Primeval Bounty by any chance...? But the "awesome deck" deal I think is at least part of the problem, for me. In swiss I completely outdraft the rest of the table, thus leading to consistent 2-1s or 3-0s. When my deck isn't far and above everyone else's, I do much worse (8-4s and Sealed). It might be that my drafting in 8-4s isn't bad per se, but merely average - my technical play skills lag behind, and that's where I need to focus my efforts. Ergo I plan on grinding the phantom sealed queues a whole bunch when they go up, because sealed sort of "handicaps" my deck such that I have to work on the technical play. I've also figured I might as well stick to 3-0ing Swiss a ton, because at this rate I'll get to qualify for the MOCS for the first time :D.
MTGO Bot on Twitch always seems to know the ratings of everyone... only way I manage to check mine lately as I use the Beta almost exclusively.
I call baloney on your so-called stats. I have played several 4-3-2-2s and the skill level is much, much, higher than Swiss. I don't see things like P2P10 Serra angels flying around in a 4322, something that just happened to me in a Swiss draft, albeit a release swiss draft.
Unless he's fabricating his data, I would trust that over your anecdotal experience and a sample size of n=1 Serra Angel. Also note that averages mask outliers -- a couple of idiots screwing up one table is not necessarily representative of every table.
I've never found the difficulty of Swiss vs. 4322 to be noticeably different.
I was about to say the same thing. Statistics > gut feeling. I would be inclined to go either way on this myself, but with with statistical evidence provided, that's enough for me.