Which would you rather have, a variable power/toughness creature or removal? Hint: its not a difficult thing to answer regarding draft...
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern GB Rock U Flooding Merfolk RUG Delver Midrange WU Monks UW Tempo Geist GW Bogle GW Liege UR Tron B Vampires
Affinity Legacy
Fish
Goblins
Burn
Reanimator
Dredge
Affinity EDH W Akroma GBW Ghave BRU Thrax GR Ruric I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
How do you know there are only 10 people interested at 100? Maybe it's 50 instead? Or maybe only 70 people are interested at 30? This is all speculation on your part. .
Of course they are not hard numbers that would be impossible,
Either way, all modern cards are pretty much demand driven, because the supply of newer sets is virtually unlimited. So prices are pretty much what people are willing to pay
Supply may be "unlimited" but there is still a cost to obtaining that supply, you're still going to have to crack 80-120 packs to get a set.
. If they mass-print some highly priced staples, peoples spendings will just shift to other cards, therefore raising their prices. Also more people interested in the format == more demand == higher prices across the board..
Why would people shift card if supply meets demands? "I can get thoughzise for $10 so now I want duress instead"
In the end there is a fundamental conflict. People want to spend as little as possible on their cards (who doesn't?) whereas WotC wants you to spend as much as possible as long as possible.
Cheaper formats = more intrest = more people playing the format.
Higher secondary market values means more incentive for dealers to buy huge amounts of sealed products to get their supply of singles, which means more profits for WotC. Therefore it is in WotCs interest to print chase staples with the highest rarity as possible, as long as they believe they are not hurting their bottom line by doing so.
More people buying the product = incentive for people to buy sealed product. The only reason most people want MM is because it is speculated that the EV will be high above the Retail price.
You seemed to have totally missed the two main points of the statement.
1. What has been revealed of MM so far isn't doing much to make it more accessible.
2. If modern is more accessible more people will buy modern cards.
Even if you believe they might do so, sales trends seem to suggest otherwise, because none of the fiascos of the past (Commanders Arsenal, FTV) have put a damp on player growth
None of those products are intended to make formats more accessible.
Eventually it will be. Baneslayer, Titans, whenever mythics are reprinted their price goes down. This MM has a very low print run, but perhaps MM2 will be bigger, and MM3 bigger still. If they keep releasing bob as a mythic in every MM, eventually the price will come down to nice acceptable levels without plummeting it.
What everyone needs to remember is that Modern Masters was never intended to be the be-all end-all that solves all the availability problems with Modern. It is the first step that Wizard takes. A cautious first step because of Chronicles, but Wizards is in this for the long haul.
The only reason Titans went down with the second printing is that they where printed with new cards.
Even if MM had an unlimited supply I doubt goyf would drop by more than 20%.
Actually, Wizards will sell more packs the higher the price of the individual singles within. If you are instead arguing that retailers should lower their prices to cater to people who cant afford the luxury item that they are selling when people have proven that they will pay the amount that they have it listed for, well, that's not how the free market works. As far as increasing the supply not making accessibility greater, you are incorrect in that now these cards can be picked up through the booster pack lottery, drafting the set or trading for them from people who have them more often than now. I know a few people who have modern staples, but don't offer them for trade because noone local has anything of equivalent value that isn't slated to take the price dive that most standard legal cards take. Adding to the supply will absolutely help more people be able to get into the format.
Unless you are saying the Wotc is intetionally designed MM to not drop ther prices so MM2 will sell better, you totally missed the point.
A 40 dollar mythic rare would constitute a must have 4 of that goes in many decks.
Stats About Mythics
-Mythics are on average 40% rarer than pre-mythic rares
(old blocks about 200 rares, Mythic blocks 35+ mythics)
-They are printing more new cards a year not less
(about 665 now vs. 630 in most pre-mythic block)
-To drop the value of a rare by $1 a mythic must go up $2
-In a 3 year time span deck prices doubled. I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
i disagree with you. asd a person who jumped off from YUgioh, to play MTG, the game, and how it is is made, are very different.
Goyf may be a mythic, however there are still more then 1 good mythic in this set, and weve seen 2 cards. If this were yugioh, not only would Goyf have been the only good mythic in the set, it would have been short printed to 1 per case.
Thats the state Yugiooh is in. The last set that came out, efgfectively had an uncommon that you need 12 of, that is short printed to 1 per box (or 12 per case), and a mythic that is over 200$. and those are the only playables in the whole set.
The current DTB, is well over 1000$ to play, and that isnt even the main deck. thats 6 of the cards you use, that arent even played in your damn main deck.
So trust me, MTG is nothing like Yugioh. It is in much better shape. If goyf is a 100$ mythic so be it. Atleast, thats the damn most expensive thing i have to buy.
The point was that it is becoming more and more like yugioh as time goes on. Am I happy that only legacy an vintage come close to competitive yugioh price points? Damn straight. I have several highly pimped edh decks worth collectively less than some yugioh decks have been. However, I did not migrate from yugioh to magic to see it make the same mistakes. You cannot expect a healthy environment to continue when you make the real world market for the cards keep creeping upward, the way it has been. Just based on competitive deck prices, the mythic rarity in general has been horrendous for the game. Magic didn't get more popular because of mythics. It got more popular because VS died, and because yugioh and Pokemon players grew up, but still wanted to play card games. Once that bubble drops, it will start bleeding back out like it was before innistrad.
Also, pro tour players cannot be used as an indication. They can always afford whatever cards they want or need. They are sponsored.
The point was that it is becoming more and more like yugioh as time goes on. Am I happy that only legacy an vintage come close to competitive yugioh price points? Damn straight. I have several highly pimped edh decks worth collectively less than some yugioh decks have been. However, I did not migrate from yugioh to magic to see it make the same mistakes. You cannot expect a healthy environment to continue when you make the real world market for the cards keep creeping upward, the way it has been. Just based on competitive deck prices, the mythic rarity in general has been horrendous for the game. Magic didn't get more popular because of mythics. It got more popular because VS died, and because yugioh and Pokemon players grew up, but still wanted to play card games. Once that bubble drops, it will start bleeding back out like it was before innistrad.
Doesn't Yu-Gi-Oh reprint expensive cards a few months after they come out in an event-deck type of product or something like that, crashing the card's prices? That's what I always hear those guys at the store complaining about. I'd always taken Yu-Gi-Oh to be an example of the dangers of reprints. If you ask people to spend hundreds of dollars on a competitive deck with the expectation that its value will tank in the near future because of reprints, then you REALLY see the haves vs have-nots, since you cut out the guys who didn't start out with deep pockets but are able to gradually build collection value over the years.
And yeah on the last point, I also think there's a bubble and we're heading for at least a minor crash, this inflated player-base won't last indefinitely, not because of anything MTG will or won't do, it's just the natural pattern of things like this.
Why would people shift card if supply meets demands? "I can get thoughzise for $10 so now I want duress instead"
They mean that other cards that deck x already runs will become more expensive. I'm not sure that's true however. It definitely works out that way in standard, but that has everything to do with sets having a relatively fixed value while they are redeemable from MTGO so that when one card spikes or drops in price, other cards from the same set shift in value to compensate since the complete set has an overall value that doesn't fluctuate more than a couple of dollars after it has been redeemable for a while. The cards that adjust in price upwards are typically (go figure) cards that are already seeing play, often in the same deck as the cards that adjust downward.
The only reason most people want MM is because it is speculated that the EV will be high above the Retail price.
You seemed to have totally missed the two main points of the statement.
1. What has been revealed of MM so far isn't doing much to make it more accessible.
2. If modern is more accessible more people will buy modern cards.
More accessible does not mean cheaper. As has been pointed out multiple times already, there is a real and quantifiable gap in the number of cards in circulation from sets printed before Zendikar. Wizards was worried (and rightly so) that if the format took off the way they want it to that there would be availability issues. This product is designed to get more cards into more locations, and it will do that. Never did they promise or even imply that their intent was to lower the prices on the chase rares. The numbers suggest that what you are looking for to happen will where it concerns the cards that should most be readily available on the cheap: the uncommons. Good, expensive chase rares are actually healthy for the format, especially while you can crack them in boosters. The perceived EV is exactly why this set will sell out completely and get the maximum number of cards into circulation and quickly.
Even if MM had an unlimited supply I doubt goyf would drop by more than 20%.
If goyf had originally been printed in the kind of numbers that a modern set is printed in I doubt that it would be more than $60. That said, even if MM brings the the total printed number of copies up to be in line with the number of any given mythic from a current set then a 20% drop in price short term seems a bit high. There is a price memory factor in play combined with the fact that old goyfs not only have a different art they also have the dstinctive future shifted frame, and even if you don't like the frame it makes the card instantly recognizable.
Maybe I'm in the minority in this but I hate the new Dark Confidant art, a lot.
I'm glad I have my playset of "Bob" and not this "Skrillex" art.
Could be, but I'm right there with you. I don't like the new art at all. I am not a huge fan of the original either personally, but I do prefer it by miles.
Doesn't Yu-Gi-Oh reprint expensive cards a few months after they come out in an event-deck type of product or something like that, crashing the card's prices? That's what I always hear those guys at the store complaining about. I'd always taken Yu-Gi-Oh to be an example of the dangers of reprints. If you ask people to spend hundreds of dollars on a competitive deck with the expectation that its value will tank in the near future because of reprints, then you REALLY see the haves vs have-nots, since you cut out the guys who didn't start out with deep pockets but are able to gradually build collection value over the years.
And yeah on the last point, I also think there's a bubble and we're heading for at least a minor crash, this inflated player-base won't last indefinitely, not because of anything MTG will or won't do, it's just the natural pattern of things like this.
Yes an
d no. They will reprint the 100$ mythic, but not im an event deck. They put it in a tin, m14, m15,your coffee, and as buy a box promos of 100 per box. BUt only after the card is no longer good.
The issue is the yugioh llayer base has gotten bigger. The ycs, the equivalent of a gp is on average 2000 players. If they host an event in California they drag in over 4000 now.
Trust me when i say, mtg is not going the same way as yugioh. Not yet. I think reprints are good, and needed in a game, to keep the prices reasonable. You do not howeber reprint the card 6 months after its usefullness, and then reprint it 6 times.
Kl give a much fuller reply, when im not typing on my phone at work. And il also spell check myself too.
I think you and I have a fundamental difference of opinion on what constitutes a significant increase in supply. That's going to make getting us to agree difficult.
Well, I agree with you that we probably won't agree.
Actually FTV is a fantastic example of a print run that helps availability w/o hurting prices. There are FTV cards all over my shop (noone there buys off the internet) that people have either purchased from the store or traded for from commander players who bought the product for select cards. Not everyone who has an interest in playing modern will even consider buying cards off the internet. Many of us would rather trade for the cards we need or pick them up at the LGS. My LGS currently doesn't have any stock of modern cards, but I am certain that they will open a box or 2 of MM for singles. My friend who plays modern and I have already traded for every goyf that is in our shop's economy, and I have the only Dark Confidant available to trade currently. I have 2 boxes on preorder and no interest in keeping any goyfs or bobs that I open so those are an increase of the supply at my local shop. The overall increase in product will be an amount that will let more people build the decks they want to build without making the cards themselves cheaper.
This is a really interesting point, and one I hadn't considered. None of the ~3 shops I attend on a regular basis function like this, which is why I hadn't considered it. In the shops I attend, when a FTV or something comes out, the copies get bought up by people that attend the shop, but it doesn't seem to change much. You'll occasionally see some of the cards in binders, but for the most part, the trade landscape stays pretty much the same. This isn't because people only play or trade standard in the shops, either; it just seems like sets like FTV don't make a big enough impact to change the trading environment significantly. Still, your shop may function differently. I guess we'll have to wait and see whether more shops are like mine or like yours.
Once again, the cost of building a deck is not the barrier to entry that you think it is. Standard decks cost just as much as modern decks do and their value is 100% guaranteed to go down, but people still play the hell out of standard.
This is demonstrably false. While some standard decks are more expensive than some modern decks, modern decks are generally more expensive by several hundred dollars. I compared the prices of the top 16 decks of GP Portland and the latest SCG Classic using deckstats.net and compiled the information here. In a nutshell, there were nine different archetypes in both modern and standard. The most expensive standard archetype, Jund, is, on average, less expensive than the majority of the modern archetypes. As in, more than half (five) of the modern archetypes were more expensive than the most expensive standard archetype. In fact, the vast majority of the modern archetypes were more expensive than the vast majority of the standard archetypes. Here's the list of archetypes, by average price (maroon for modern, green for standard):
See the clump of maroon at the top and the clump of green towards the bottom? That's what I'm talking about. Modern is absolutely more expensive than standard.
To tie this back in to the topic of the thread, since we've been getting a little side-tracked: modern decks are much more expensive to build, on average, than standard decks, as demonstrated above. This is a barrier of entry to the format. Modern Masters was supposed to help alleviate this problem by increasing the supply of expensive modern cards, thus driving the prices on those cards down. Dark Confidant is an example of an expensive modern card that Wizards would do well to help bring down the price on. Yet by making it mythic, only packaging 24 packs in a box, and printing the set in limited quantities, Wizards is significantly hampering their effort to make cards like Dark Confidant more available, and, by doing so, sabotaging their stated goal of making modern more accessible.
Again, difference of opinion on what is significant. If 1-3 players per store can suddenly have access to the cards they need through routes that are not the internet, then I would call that significant indeed. Honestly, I fully expect that anything printed below mythic rarity is at a huge risk of dropping quite a bit. Especially any of the currently money uncommons that aren't bumped in rarity.
See, I think the problem, at least in my shops, is that the players who can afford to buy any significant amount of modern masters product are the ones who can already afford expensive cards and are already playing modern/legacy.
See the clump of maroon at the top and the clump of green towards the bottom? That's what I'm talking about. Modern is absolutely more expensive than standard.
Dark Confidant is an example of an expensive modern card that Wizards would do well to help bring down the price on. Yet by making it mythic, only packaging 24 packs in a box, and printing the set in limited quantities, Wizards is significantly hampering their effort to make cards like Dark Confidant more available, and, therefore, sabotaging their stated goal of making modern more accessible.
So which of those maroon lists run Bob? 0 of them? Oh.
Which of those maroon lists run Goyf? Zoo? Ok.
The bulk of the price is coming from fetches, which MM was never going to be able to fix anyway. Flattening prices of commons and uncommons will help as well.
Also, and this is something people mention ALL THE TIME about legacy, but never modern...you only need buy into the format once. Your deck doesn't rotate like standard. You don't have to keep trading and rotating the cards out of your possession to stay competitive.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
News and spoiler contributor for GatheringMagic.com
So which of those maroon lists run Bob? 0 of them? Oh.
Which of those maroon lists run Goyf? Zoo? Ok.
Again, this isn't about Goyf and Bob in particular, it's about expensive modern cards in general, and how Modern Masters isn't going to do much to bring down the prices on them.
The bulk of the price is coming from fetches, which MM was never going to be able to fix anyway. Flattening prices of commons and uncommons will help as well.
Fine, let's look at the UWR deck from the top 8, take all the pre-Zendikar uncommons in it, and cut the prices on them in half. This deck runs a significant number of Modern Masters-legal uncommons. Since I used deckstats to calculate the price of the decks, I'll use them to calculate the price of these invidual cards as well.
4x Lightning Helix: $17.12 total
3x Path to Exile: $22.62 total
2x Remand: $21.22 total
2x Electrolyze: $4.90 total
1x Isochron Scepter: $5.94
2x Aven Mindcensor: $16.36 total
=$88.16 in pre-Zendikar uncommons
Divided in half, that's $44.08. So, going by our 50% price drop example, you could save about $44.08 on uncommons from that deck from Modern Masters. Saving $44 on uncommons is pretty good, but how much of a difference will that actually make? Subtracted from the original deck price of $889.70, the new price is $845.62. That's still almost two hundred dollars more than the most expensive standard deck.
Also, and this is something people mention ALL THE TIME about legacy, but never modern...you only need buy into the format once. Your deck doesn't rotate like standard. You don't have to keep trading and rotating the cards out of your possession to stay competitive.
True, but it's the barrier of entry that's the problem, not the barrier-of-after-you've-already-bought-all-the-cards-you-need. You're basically saying that modern is super cheap after you get past the barrier of entry... which is great, but doesn't solve the barrier of entry problem.
Let's focus on the assertion that Wizards wants to drive down prices on Modern.
- Modern costs more at the moment but this is off-set by only having to pay in once (with some adjustment for new releases, meta-shifts, bannings).
- Modern and Standard are both WOTC supported, competitive formats and pull from similar pools of players.
- Lowering the financial barriers to entry may result in some Standard players switching over to Modern. This would impact sales of Standard playable sets.
- Moving players in to Modern sells more singles, but generates relatively little revenue for WOTC.
- Maintaining some differentiation (in this case the cache of playing the more expensive/elite format vs. Standard) between their formats benefits WOTC.
- Selling a high price, low quantity set of reprints does generate profits for WOTC and doesn't threaten Standard, which is arguably the cash cow of Magic.
Conclusion: WOTC should continue to walk the line between offering more Modern staples to help grow the format, but not so much that they risk poaching Standard players. Therefore, WOTC will not print Goyf's, Fetches, Bobs and Cliques in quantities that pacify the masses and give everyone access to these "best cards." One unraised question: what would happen to the meta if they did?
Let's focus on the assertion that Wizards wants to drive down prices on Modern.
- Modern costs more at the moment but this is off-set by only having to pay in once (with some adjustment for new releases, meta-shifts, bannings).
- Modern and Standard are both WOTC supported, competitive formats and pull from similar pools of players.
- Lowering the financial barriers to entry may result in some Standard players switching over to Modern. This would impact sales of Standard playable sets.
- Moving players in to Modern sells more singles, but generates relatively little revenue for WOTC.
- Maintaining some differentiation (in this case the cache of playing the more expensive/elite format vs. Standard) between their formats benefits WOTC.
- Selling a high price, low quantity set of reprints does generate profits for WOTC and doesn't threaten Standard, which is arguably the cash cow of Magic.
Conclusion: WOTC should continue to walk the line between offering more Modern staples to help grow the format, but not so much that they risk poaching Standard players. Therefore, WOTC will not print Goyf's, Fetches, Bobs and Cliques in quantities that pacify the masses and give everyone access to these "best cards." One unraised question: what would happen to the meta if they did?
Point of information: standard sets are all legal in modern, and as such, modern will help drive the sales when a card that impacts the modern environment is released, like Snapcaster Mage.
I wasn't talking about unlimited MM. I was talking about MM2 which contains new cards and also Goyf.
I'd have rather they not use Mythics in MM so that way they don't feel compelled to re-print Goyf or Confidant again with the next MM. That's just dumb and a waste of a slot in the future MM sets.
Modern is absolutely more expensive than standard.
It doesn't help either that some cards still in standard also play a heavy role in modern. IE Snapcaster, Geist, and Liliana to name a few rotating shortly. When you have these multi-format allstars you start to have pull and inflation in value as people move in and out of the format by season. Yes modern is more expensive because a lot of staples are $15+ and decks are pretty much jam packed with them as much as possible when looking at high ends like Jund. The second you avoid green the second your cost for modern goes drastically down. It's an interesting dynamic between modern and standard, but it's not actually as bad as I thought it was.
1. As a chase mythic it'll keep selling packs for Wizards
2. It's price will not crash so a lot of people will not be angry with Wizards
I fail to see how it would be 'dumb' for Wizards to do so.
I also fail to see how a card anyone would be happy to open would be a waste of a slot.
Wizards has already made their money on Modern Masters. So people buying packs at the inflated price aren't putting more money into Wizard's pocket. They're already claiming this is a limited product, how many packs will there be to open? They are walking a fine line here between not enough and too much (they're really afraid of Chronicles 2.0) but they are playing too conservatively. They claimed MM was to help lower the barrier into Modern, it may still do that by lowering common/uncommon prices, but by putting certain cards to Mythic, it's simply maintaining the barrier to certain decks.
I was merely saying that the people in this thread claiming it's Mythic so it can be into the next MM, that's a wasted slot. I would rather they had left it at rare (and anything else that comes along) to actually affect the supply.
I hope you're right. I didn't realize they had already talked about MM2. Do you have a source for that info?
Been looking for it, but I'm terrible at searching twitter which was my first instinct as to where he said it. It is possible it was in a video interview however so I'll keep looking but I'm almost certain it was Aaron Forsythe that mentioned the concept of mm2 in the context of using mm to introduce cards into the format that aren't currently legal.
This is demonstrably false. While some standard decks are more expensive than some modern decks, modern decks are generally more expensive by several hundred dollars.
...
facts
...
Modern is absolutely more expensive than standard.
You are correct. I made the mistake of taking someone else's figures for modern decks and comparing them to the top 8 decks from last weekend's SCG using TCG player as my source. I went back and actually did the research myself, and have to admit to being wrong on the price of modern decks.
To tie this back in to the topic of the thread, since we've been getting a little side-tracked: modern decks are much more expensive to build, on average, than standard decks, as demonstrated above. This is a barrier of entry to the format. Modern Masters was supposed to help alleviate this problem by increasing the supply of expensive modern cards, thus driving the prices on those cards down. Dark Confidant is an example of an expensive modern card that Wizards would do well to help bring down the price on. Yet by making it mythic, only packaging 24 packs in a box, and printing the set in limited quantities, Wizards is significantly hampering their effort to make cards like Dark Confidant more available, and, by doing so, sabotaging their stated goal of making modern more accessible.
The problem with this line of reasoning is that it's based on a flawed premise. Assuming that the goal was to lower prices is not based on anything that they said directly or indirectly. Instead it is based on your (and others') perception that that is what the term accessable means. I personally don't think that that is the case. I believe that the goal was to bring the number of copies of certain cards in existence in line with their counterparts from later sets. Aaron forsythe mentions the player base explosion @Zendikar (which is when they started printing a lot more cards) as one of the reasons for the set at about 2:15 into the announcement during pro tour RTR, and again he says this in the announcing MM article:
Quote from Aaron Forsythe »
We knew that many players wanted a non-rotating format in which to keep playing their older cards, but the best alternative at the time—Legacy—was, and still is, hampered by card availability problems that stem from our Reserved List (a policy that prevents us from reprinting several cards from Magic's early days, many of which are tournament mainstays). Since our hands are tied when it comes to growing Legacy, we made the decision to create a similar, smaller format for which we had no restrictions about what we could reprint.
and
Quote from Aaron Forsythe »
But Magic has been growing and growing to never-before-achieved numbers of players in the past few years, and as the community has grown, so have rumblings over card availability for Modern.
The only thing he says about prices dropping is buried in this quote where he once again emphasizes card availability as the issue they are looking to solve.
Quote from Aaron Forsythe »
We don't want to turn cards from scarce to abundant in the blink of an eye, but we do want to alter the availability by a matter of degrees, all with the goal of growing the reach of the Modern format. Ideally, over time, any short-term drop in desirability of older cards you may own will be recouped as more players enter the format. I can't say it enough: our print run is very small, especially compared to what we're making for our current headliner sets like Return to Ravnica. We're playing in a very delicate space, and we know that, but the promise of the Modern format was that we would address card availability issues, and we are focused on figuring out the best way to do that.
See, I think the problem, at least in my shops, is that the players who can afford to buy any significant amount of modern masters product are the ones who can already afford expensive cards and are already playing modern/legacy.
Whereas In my experience, the people who are playing modern/legacy outside of major tournaments are the ones who never traded away/sold their old cards or are playing decks mostly composed of cards that are recently or currently standard legal. I only know one local player who buys singles from anywhere but his LGS at any time other than when he wants to compete at a major tournament.
Again, this isn't about Goyf and Bob in particular, it's about expensive modern cards in general, and how Modern Masters isn't going to do much to bring down the prices on them.
This is something that can be argued, and it remains to be seen just how much of an impact MM will have on the prices of cards not printed at mythic (mythics shouldn't change much based on the ditribution numbers we currently have to work with, uncommons and commons in the set should tank, and I would expect a price drop on rares as well, but it is hard to quantify how much w/o knowing what is in the set since people will be looking to recoup the amount they spent on boxes, and a lot of value should be lost from certain uncommons, and I'm almost certain that the perceived EV isn't properly taking this into account for most people. Assuming that the numbers are right here: http://www.mtgbrodeals.com/2013/05/14/modern-masters-seperating-fact-from-fiction/
(and they look ok) there will be 12 play sets of every given uncommon popping out of each store's allotment. I can't see things like Aether Vial or Remand holding their value with with that kind of availability. It should drop like a stone. This should have the effect of driving the value in the set upward into the rares and mythics if we can't expect to recoup more than a few dollars from the uncommons of any given pack.
I would really like it if WotC would just finally let everyone have a manabase. Force them to build funky decks with janky replacements for the chase rares if you must, but at least let them unlock the gate and walk into the scene by giving them access to a competitive manabase.
They mean that other cards that deck x already runs will become more expensive. I'm not sure that's true however. It definitely works out that way in standard, but that has everything to do with sets having a relatively fixed value while they are redeemable from MTGO so that when one card spikes or drops in price, other cards from the same set shift in value to compensate since the complete set has an overall value that doesn't fluctuate more than a couple of dollars after it has been redeemable for a while. The cards that adjust in price upwards are typically (go figure) cards that are already seeing play, often in the same deck as the cards that adjust downward.
only if the other card has supply equal to are less than the card you are making cheaper could the deck not get cheaper.
More accessible does not mean cheaper. As has been pointed out multiple times already, there is a real and quantifiable gap in the number of cards in circulation from sets printed before Zendikar. Wizards was worried (and rightly so) that if the format took off the way they want it to that there would be availability issues. This product is designed to get more cards into more locations, and it will do that. Never did they promise or even imply that their intent was to lower the prices on the chase rares. The numbers suggest that what you are looking for to happen will where it concerns the cards that should most be readily available on the cheap: the uncommons. Good, expensive chase rares are actually healthy for the format, especially while you can crack them in boosters. The perceived EV is exactly why this set will sell out completely and get the maximum number of cards into circulation and quickly.
The only real barrier to entry to modern is the price.
That said, even if MM brings the the total printed number of copies up to be in line with the number of any given mythic from a current set then a 20% drop in price short term seems a bit high. There is a price memory factor in play combined with the fact that old goyfs not only have a different art they also have the dstinctive future shifted frame, and even if you don't like the frame it makes the card instantly recognizable.
It would really depend on how much vaule the set has and where it is concentrated. If the set had $1000 in mythic value with unlimited supply then a 20% drop in vaule would be expected, if the $1000 was mostly concentrated in rares then there would be little effect on goyf.
So which of those maroon lists run Bob? 0 of them? Oh.
Which of those maroon lists run Goyf? Zoo? Ok.
The bulk of the price is coming from fetches, which MM was never going to be able to fix anyway. Flattening prices of commons and uncommons will help as well.
That list doesn't really reflect junds recent downfall.
MM may not be able to do anything about the fetches but their are pleanty of expensive modern staples besides Bob, and goyf. thought seize, kiki, clique, Cryptic command, affinity lands, ravenger ect...
The problem is MM isn't doing much about them either.
A 40 dollar mythic rare would constitute a must have 4 of that goes in many decks.
Stats About Mythics
-Mythics are on average 40% rarer than pre-mythic rares
(old blocks about 200 rares, Mythic blocks 35+ mythics)
-They are printing more new cards a year not less
(about 665 now vs. 630 in most pre-mythic block)
-To drop the value of a rare by $1 a mythic must go up $2
-In a 3 year time span deck prices doubled. I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
Even if it's only 700, it will be 200$ less. And it is a good thing.
Even a 25% decrease in the price of the rares is being VERY generous. All the numbers I've seen, including both of the articles that nerf linked to in the post of his I'm quoting now, have said that the prices on rares will move very little, if at all. Every little bit helps, but Modern Masters won't be dropping decks down into the standard deck price range, at least not because of cheaper rares/mythics.
The problem with this line of reasoning is that it's based on a flawed premise. Assuming that the goal was to lower prices is not based on anything that they said directly or indirectly. Instead it is based on your (and others') perception that that is what the term accessable means. I personally don't think that that is the case. I believe that the goal was to bring the number of copies of certain cards in existence in line with their counterparts from later sets.
But, again, there is a strong negative correlation between card availability and price (ie, low availability --> high price, and vice versa), which Wizards knows. And card prices are the thing that most people cite as the barrier of entry to modern, which Wizards also knows. When people talk about how legacy isn't accessible because of card availability, they are usually talking about how legacy is extremely expensive. "Card availability issues" and "high card prices" are basically synonymous. I can't cite a definition somewhere, but that is always how I've heard the terms used, and many, many other people interpret those terms the way I do. I think Wizards can't or won't directly say that they want to affect secondary market prices on cards, but that is very clearly what they're trying to do, and they've all but spelled it out by talking about card availability.
For what its worth, both of the articles you cite also assume that cost, not availability, is the real barrier to entry of modern, and that Wizards is actively trying to lower the cost of cards. Dr. Jeebus thinks it's the price of the uncommons, not the rares, that's the real problem Modern Masters is meant to solve, but he still clearly thinks it's an issue of cost. And literally the first sentence of the second article is "One of the problems with the Modern format is card prices as a barrier to entry."
I think we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this. We've cleared up basically every other disagreement we had, and all our current disagreements really boil down to whether we think Wizards was implying that they wanted to affect card prices when they said they wanted to increase card availability. That's the crux of the disagreement, and everything else follows from it. You seem to have pretty good reasons for thinking the way you do about card availability, since in your experience availability is not necessarily connected to card price. My experience has been different, though; for me, card availability and price have always been connected, and the terms have always been connected as well.
Are you going to buy product for the game with 10 customers or 100 customers
I'll buy the one that I enjoy the most. For most games that means ones that I can play with my friends regardless of how many people play it overall. Heck, I used to play spellfire long after the product was discontinued simply because my friends played. I would pick up boosters out of bargain bins to play.
The only real barrier to entry to modern is the price.
As I know people with plenty of money to buy cards but choose not to and who don't play modern because they can't trade for the cards they need you are wrong. Modern is expensive, but I find that locally, card availability is the true barrier to modern. If more people bought singles on the internet, then you could be correct, but since most of the people I know crack packs and trade to acquire cards for their decks the number one barrier they face is card availability. Those cards just don't exist at my shop, the player base just doesn't have them, and the shop only acquires it's singles from the most recent set and it's player base.
Even a 25% decrease in the price of the rares is being VERY generous. All the numbers I've seen, including both of the articles that nerf linked to in the post of his I'm quoting now, have said that the prices on rares will move very little, if at all. Every little bit helps, but Modern Masters won't be dropping decks down into the standard deck price range, at least not because of cheaper rares/mythics.
Yeah... based on the time last wednesday passed through tomorrow into yesterday the first time last thursday, I would say that because of the aggressive pricing of boosters we won't likely see much movement at all on the high dollar mythics (although that remains to be seen for a card like doubling season if it's in- the demand might drop sharply once the set is released into circulation) and 20% seems like as low as most rares will drop short term since people who crack packs are going to want to recoup their investment. Anything rare+ that sees any tournament play at all should have a starting price very close to the value of the original printing. Some prices will adjust downward from there down the line if their demand is met, but I wouldn't be surprised if any playable rares eventually go up due to supply not being enough to satisfy increasing player demand.
But, again, there is a strong negative correlation between card availability and price (ie, low availability --> high price, and vice versa), which Wizards knows. And card prices are the thing that most people cite as the barrier of entry to modern, which Wizards also knows. When people talk about how legacy isn't accessible because of card availability, they are usually talking about how legacy is extremely expensive. "Card availability issues" and "high card prices" are basically synonymous. I can't cite a definition somewhere, but that is always how I've heard the terms used, and many, many other people interpret those terms the way I do. I think Wizards can't or won't directly say that they want to affect secondary market prices on cards, but that is very clearly what they're trying to do, and they've all but spelled it out by talking about card availability.
While it is true that many people do equate card availability with card prices, and the two are linked, they are not by any means the same thing. For example, the 12 copies of The Abyss (most I've seen available for a while) and the exactly 1 copy of Chains of Mephistopheles available at TCGplayer right now show actual card availability issues. There is nothing in modern (outside of promos) that is quite that rare yet, but there would be if there were no reprints. This is the entire reason for the modern format, and why they considered starting the format at Mercadian Masques to dodge the reserved list that lets them address those issues and reprint cards where the supply is low. As far as Wizards using the term availability to mean price, I posit that the term they actually use to mean price is desirability. Hence why I say that the only thing they say about price in the announcing modern masters article is:
Quote from Aaron Forsythe »
Ideally, over time, any short-term drop in desirability of older cards you may own will be recouped as more players enter the format.
emphaisis mine.
There is a clear indication that they are aware that the set could lower prices short term, but that they believe those prices will go back up to their former levels. I don't believe their goal was only a short term increase in card availability so the two concepts have to be separate no? I think the en masse assumption that the set has negative price manipulation as a goal is a misinterpretation of semantics combined with an at large assumption that people aren't getting into the format due to their wallets.
For what its worth, both of the articles you cite also assume that cost, not availability, is the real barrier to entry of modern, and that Wizards is actively trying to lower the cost of cards. Dr. Jeebus thinks it's the price of the uncommons, not the rares, that's the real problem Modern Masters is meant to solve, but he still clearly thinks it's an issue of cost. And literally the first sentence of the second article is "One of the problems with the Modern format is card prices as a barrier to entry."
Just because I don't agree with everything they say doesn't mean there isn't good information in the articles. The section on card availability in Dr. Jeebus' article was enlightening, and the (yes, guesstimated) charts in the legitmtg article show just how big the potential gap in supply is for older cards. I found it an interesting read.
I think we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this. We've cleared up basically every other disagreement we had, and all our current disagreements really boil down to whether we think Wizards was implying that they wanted to affect card prices when they said they wanted to increase card availability. That's the crux of the disagreement, and everything else follows from it. You seem to have pretty good reasons for thinking the way you do about card availability, since in your experience availability is not necessarily connected to card price. My experience has been different, though; for me, card availability and price have always been connected, and the terms have always been connected as well.
Fair enough although they most certainly affect one another, and I've indicated my awareness of such, they just aren't directly and solely responsible for each other.
I think it's in their interests to keep deck prices higher than Standard because otherwise, what would be the point ?
If Modern cost only 200-300$ more than Standard for the best decks, why would new players play Standard ? Just put 100$ more on your deck and you'll have to keep it forever ! (unless it gets banned...)
They want to keep the prices high, but still far from Legacy ones.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
GB Rock
U Flooding Merfolk
RUG Delver Midrange
WU Monks
UW Tempo Geist
GW Bogle
GW Liege
UR Tron
B Vampires
Affinity
Legacy
Fish
Goblins
Burn
Reanimator
Dredge
Affinity
EDH
W Akroma
GBW Ghave
BRU Thrax
GR Ruric
I advocate for the elimination of the combo archetype in Modern. I believe it is degenerate and unfun by its very nature and will always limit design space and cause unnecessary bans.
Of course they are not hard numbers that would be impossible,
Supply may be "unlimited" but there is still a cost to obtaining that supply, you're still going to have to crack 80-120 packs to get a set.
Why would people shift card if supply meets demands? "I can get thoughzise for $10 so now I want duress instead"
Cheaper formats = more intrest = more people playing the format.
More people buying the product = incentive for people to buy sealed product. The only reason most people want MM is because it is speculated that the EV will be high above the Retail price.
You seemed to have totally missed the two main points of the statement.
1. What has been revealed of MM so far isn't doing much to make it more accessible.
2. If modern is more accessible more people will buy modern cards.
None of those products are intended to make formats more accessible.
The only reason Titans went down with the second printing is that they where printed with new cards.
Even if MM had an unlimited supply I doubt goyf would drop by more than 20%.
Unless you are saying the Wotc is intetionally designed MM to not drop ther prices so MM2 will sell better, you totally missed the point.
Stats About Mythics
-Mythics are on average 40% rarer than pre-mythic rares
(old blocks about 200 rares, Mythic blocks 35+ mythics)
-They are printing more new cards a year not less
(about 665 now vs. 630 in most pre-mythic block)
-To drop the value of a rare by $1 a mythic must go up $2
-In a 3 year time span deck prices doubled.
I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
The point was that it is becoming more and more like yugioh as time goes on. Am I happy that only legacy an vintage come close to competitive yugioh price points? Damn straight. I have several highly pimped edh decks worth collectively less than some yugioh decks have been. However, I did not migrate from yugioh to magic to see it make the same mistakes. You cannot expect a healthy environment to continue when you make the real world market for the cards keep creeping upward, the way it has been. Just based on competitive deck prices, the mythic rarity in general has been horrendous for the game. Magic didn't get more popular because of mythics. It got more popular because VS died, and because yugioh and Pokemon players grew up, but still wanted to play card games. Once that bubble drops, it will start bleeding back out like it was before innistrad.
Also, pro tour players cannot be used as an indication. They can always afford whatever cards they want or need. They are sponsored.
EDH is a CASUAL format. Get with the program, or GTFO.
Doesn't Yu-Gi-Oh reprint expensive cards a few months after they come out in an event-deck type of product or something like that, crashing the card's prices? That's what I always hear those guys at the store complaining about. I'd always taken Yu-Gi-Oh to be an example of the dangers of reprints. If you ask people to spend hundreds of dollars on a competitive deck with the expectation that its value will tank in the near future because of reprints, then you REALLY see the haves vs have-nots, since you cut out the guys who didn't start out with deep pockets but are able to gradually build collection value over the years.
And yeah on the last point, I also think there's a bubble and we're heading for at least a minor crash, this inflated player-base won't last indefinitely, not because of anything MTG will or won't do, it's just the natural pattern of things like this.
I'm glad I have my playset of "Bob" and not this "Skrillex" art.
They mean that other cards that deck x already runs will become more expensive. I'm not sure that's true however. It definitely works out that way in standard, but that has everything to do with sets having a relatively fixed value while they are redeemable from MTGO so that when one card spikes or drops in price, other cards from the same set shift in value to compensate since the complete set has an overall value that doesn't fluctuate more than a couple of dollars after it has been redeemable for a while. The cards that adjust in price upwards are typically (go figure) cards that are already seeing play, often in the same deck as the cards that adjust downward.
Hence why pauper is the number one most played format amirite?
?
More accessible does not mean cheaper. As has been pointed out multiple times already, there is a real and quantifiable gap in the number of cards in circulation from sets printed before Zendikar. Wizards was worried (and rightly so) that if the format took off the way they want it to that there would be availability issues. This product is designed to get more cards into more locations, and it will do that. Never did they promise or even imply that their intent was to lower the prices on the chase rares. The numbers suggest that what you are looking for to happen will where it concerns the cards that should most be readily available on the cheap: the uncommons. Good, expensive chase rares are actually healthy for the format, especially while you can crack them in boosters. The perceived EV is exactly why this set will sell out completely and get the maximum number of cards into circulation and quickly.
If goyf had originally been printed in the kind of numbers that a modern set is printed in I doubt that it would be more than $60. That said, even if MM brings the the total printed number of copies up to be in line with the number of any given mythic from a current set then a 20% drop in price short term seems a bit high. There is a price memory factor in play combined with the fact that old goyfs not only have a different art they also have the dstinctive future shifted frame, and even if you don't like the frame it makes the card instantly recognizable.
Could be, but I'm right there with you. I don't like the new art at all. I am not a huge fan of the original either personally, but I do prefer it by miles.
Yes an
d no. They will reprint the 100$ mythic, but not im an event deck. They put it in a tin, m14, m15,your coffee, and as buy a box promos of 100 per box. BUt only after the card is no longer good.
The issue is the yugioh llayer base has gotten bigger. The ycs, the equivalent of a gp is on average 2000 players. If they host an event in California they drag in over 4000 now.
Trust me when i say, mtg is not going the same way as yugioh. Not yet. I think reprints are good, and needed in a game, to keep the prices reasonable. You do not howeber reprint the card 6 months after its usefullness, and then reprint it 6 times.
Kl give a much fuller reply, when im not typing on my phone at work. And il also spell check myself too.
Well, I agree with you that we probably won't agree.
This is a really interesting point, and one I hadn't considered. None of the ~3 shops I attend on a regular basis function like this, which is why I hadn't considered it. In the shops I attend, when a FTV or something comes out, the copies get bought up by people that attend the shop, but it doesn't seem to change much. You'll occasionally see some of the cards in binders, but for the most part, the trade landscape stays pretty much the same. This isn't because people only play or trade standard in the shops, either; it just seems like sets like FTV don't make a big enough impact to change the trading environment significantly. Still, your shop may function differently. I guess we'll have to wait and see whether more shops are like mine or like yours.
This is demonstrably false. While some standard decks are more expensive than some modern decks, modern decks are generally more expensive by several hundred dollars. I compared the prices of the top 16 decks of GP Portland and the latest SCG Classic using deckstats.net and compiled the information here. In a nutshell, there were nine different archetypes in both modern and standard. The most expensive standard archetype, Jund, is, on average, less expensive than the majority of the modern archetypes. As in, more than half (five) of the modern archetypes were more expensive than the most expensive standard archetype. In fact, the vast majority of the modern archetypes were more expensive than the vast majority of the standard archetypes. Here's the list of archetypes, by average price (maroon for modern, green for standard):
1. Domain Zoo: $1,664.69
2. Gifts: $948.64
3. Melira Pod: $914.84
4. UWR: $852.17
5. WB Tokens: $716.52
6. Jund: $661.88
7. UWR: $614.62
8. Affinity: $547.67
9. Scapeshift: $544.22
10. WRB Aggro: $502.30
11. Bant Hexproof: $488.69
12. Bant Aggro: $439.96
13. Reanimator: $431.63
14. Life and Death (Junk Midrange): $417.10
15. Storm: $370.81
16. GW Aggro: $335.89
17. Living End: $285.09
18. RG Aggro: $246.11
See the clump of maroon at the top and the clump of green towards the bottom? That's what I'm talking about. Modern is absolutely more expensive than standard.
To tie this back in to the topic of the thread, since we've been getting a little side-tracked: modern decks are much more expensive to build, on average, than standard decks, as demonstrated above. This is a barrier of entry to the format. Modern Masters was supposed to help alleviate this problem by increasing the supply of expensive modern cards, thus driving the prices on those cards down. Dark Confidant is an example of an expensive modern card that Wizards would do well to help bring down the price on. Yet by making it mythic, only packaging 24 packs in a box, and printing the set in limited quantities, Wizards is significantly hampering their effort to make cards like Dark Confidant more available, and, by doing so, sabotaging their stated goal of making modern more accessible.
See, I think the problem, at least in my shops, is that the players who can afford to buy any significant amount of modern masters product are the ones who can already afford expensive cards and are already playing modern/legacy.
So which of those maroon lists run Bob? 0 of them? Oh.
Which of those maroon lists run Goyf? Zoo? Ok.
The bulk of the price is coming from fetches, which MM was never going to be able to fix anyway. Flattening prices of commons and uncommons will help as well.
Also, and this is something people mention ALL THE TIME about legacy, but never modern...you only need buy into the format once. Your deck doesn't rotate like standard. You don't have to keep trading and rotating the cards out of your possession to stay competitive.
Twitter
Fine, let's look at the UWR deck from the top 8, take all the pre-Zendikar uncommons in it, and cut the prices on them in half. This deck runs a significant number of Modern Masters-legal uncommons. Since I used deckstats to calculate the price of the decks, I'll use them to calculate the price of these invidual cards as well.
4x Lightning Helix: $17.12 total
3x Path to Exile: $22.62 total
2x Remand: $21.22 total
2x Electrolyze: $4.90 total
1x Isochron Scepter: $5.94
2x Aven Mindcensor: $16.36 total
=$88.16 in pre-Zendikar uncommons
Divided in half, that's $44.08. So, going by our 50% price drop example, you could save about $44.08 on uncommons from that deck from Modern Masters. Saving $44 on uncommons is pretty good, but how much of a difference will that actually make? Subtracted from the original deck price of $889.70, the new price is $845.62. That's still almost two hundred dollars more than the most expensive standard deck.
I do agree that fetches are a problem, though.
True, but it's the barrier of entry that's the problem, not the barrier-of-after-you've-already-bought-all-the-cards-you-need. You're basically saying that modern is super cheap after you get past the barrier of entry... which is great, but doesn't solve the barrier of entry problem.
- Modern costs more at the moment but this is off-set by only having to pay in once (with some adjustment for new releases, meta-shifts, bannings).
- Modern and Standard are both WOTC supported, competitive formats and pull from similar pools of players.
- Lowering the financial barriers to entry may result in some Standard players switching over to Modern. This would impact sales of Standard playable sets.
- Moving players in to Modern sells more singles, but generates relatively little revenue for WOTC.
- Maintaining some differentiation (in this case the cache of playing the more expensive/elite format vs. Standard) between their formats benefits WOTC.
- Selling a high price, low quantity set of reprints does generate profits for WOTC and doesn't threaten Standard, which is arguably the cash cow of Magic.
Conclusion: WOTC should continue to walk the line between offering more Modern staples to help grow the format, but not so much that they risk poaching Standard players. Therefore, WOTC will not print Goyf's, Fetches, Bobs and Cliques in quantities that pacify the masses and give everyone access to these "best cards." One unraised question: what would happen to the meta if they did?
Sydri's Magical Castle WUB
Chainer, Dementia Master: "Bring out your dead!" BBB
Riku Because Copying Decimate URG
Xira Arien, Jund StaxBRG
The Sylvan-Primordial-PlasmBUG
Trostani ComboGW
Vizkopa Guildmage - Peasant VariantBW
Point of information: standard sets are all legal in modern, and as such, modern will help drive the sales when a card that impacts the modern environment is released, like Snapcaster Mage.
EDH is a CASUAL format. Get with the program, or GTFO.
I'd have rather they not use Mythics in MM so that way they don't feel compelled to re-print Goyf or Confidant again with the next MM. That's just dumb and a waste of a slot in the future MM sets.
he got a crown and some weird hair as well as the fact that he actually has a circle on the back of his throne.
Thanks Argentleman;)
WB Teysa token aggroBW (retired)
MAKING (Onmath, Numot, maybe something in Esper)
It doesn't help either that some cards still in standard also play a heavy role in modern. IE Snapcaster, Geist, and Liliana to name a few rotating shortly. When you have these multi-format allstars you start to have pull and inflation in value as people move in and out of the format by season. Yes modern is more expensive because a lot of staples are $15+ and decks are pretty much jam packed with them as much as possible when looking at high ends like Jund. The second you avoid green the second your cost for modern goes drastically down. It's an interesting dynamic between modern and standard, but it's not actually as bad as I thought it was.
Play-set...meaning $5-apiece
Trade List
MTGSalvation trade list
---------------------------------------------------------
"If you kill me now, it is I who will live, not your damned apples."
"Just mention a firing pole with balls and he's
already thinking about 'that'..."
Decks Played:
Dark DepthslBWG (Legacy)
Coralhelm KnightsGWU (Modern)
Vengevine the Rerevengeancening BRG (Modern)
Wizards has already made their money on Modern Masters. So people buying packs at the inflated price aren't putting more money into Wizard's pocket. They're already claiming this is a limited product, how many packs will there be to open? They are walking a fine line here between not enough and too much (they're really afraid of Chronicles 2.0) but they are playing too conservatively. They claimed MM was to help lower the barrier into Modern, it may still do that by lowering common/uncommon prices, but by putting certain cards to Mythic, it's simply maintaining the barrier to certain decks.
I was merely saying that the people in this thread claiming it's Mythic so it can be into the next MM, that's a wasted slot. I would rather they had left it at rare (and anything else that comes along) to actually affect the supply.
Been looking for it, but I'm terrible at searching twitter which was my first instinct as to where he said it. It is possible it was in a video interview however so I'll keep looking but I'm almost certain it was Aaron Forsythe that mentioned the concept of mm2 in the context of using mm to introduce cards into the format that aren't currently legal.
You are correct. I made the mistake of taking someone else's figures for modern decks and comparing them to the top 8 decks from last weekend's SCG using TCG player as my source. I went back and actually did the research myself, and have to admit to being wrong on the price of modern decks.
The problem with this line of reasoning is that it's based on a flawed premise. Assuming that the goal was to lower prices is not based on anything that they said directly or indirectly. Instead it is based on your (and others') perception that that is what the term accessable means. I personally don't think that that is the case. I believe that the goal was to bring the number of copies of certain cards in existence in line with their counterparts from later sets. Aaron forsythe mentions the player base explosion @Zendikar (which is when they started printing a lot more cards) as one of the reasons for the set at about 2:15 into the announcement during pro tour RTR, and again he says this in the announcing MM article:
and
The only thing he says about prices dropping is buried in this quote where he once again emphasizes card availability as the issue they are looking to solve.
Emphasis mine.
Whereas In my experience, the people who are playing modern/legacy outside of major tournaments are the ones who never traded away/sold their old cards or are playing decks mostly composed of cards that are recently or currently standard legal. I only know one local player who buys singles from anywhere but his LGS at any time other than when he wants to compete at a major tournament.
This is something that can be argued, and it remains to be seen just how much of an impact MM will have on the prices of cards not printed at mythic (mythics shouldn't change much based on the ditribution numbers we currently have to work with, uncommons and commons in the set should tank, and I would expect a price drop on rares as well, but it is hard to quantify how much w/o knowing what is in the set since people will be looking to recoup the amount they spent on boxes, and a lot of value should be lost from certain uncommons, and I'm almost certain that the perceived EV isn't properly taking this into account for most people. Assuming that the numbers are right here: http://www.mtgbrodeals.com/2013/05/14/modern-masters-seperating-fact-from-fiction/
(and they look ok) there will be 12 play sets of every given uncommon popping out of each store's allotment. I can't see things like Aether Vial or Remand holding their value with with that kind of availability. It should drop like a stone. This should have the effect of driving the value in the set upward into the rares and mythics if we can't expect to recoup more than a few dollars from the uncommons of any given pack.
Hope with me for fetches in m14~ But that's a discussion for another thread...
Also, here is a great link for people interested in the discussion in this thread:
http://legitmtg.com/culture/can-modern-masters-close-the-supply-demand-gap/
only if the other card has supply equal to are less than the card you are making cheaper could the deck not get cheaper.
Pauper isn't really supported in real life, it also doesn't get to use complex cards.
Are you going to buy product for the game with 10 customers or 100 customers
The only real barrier to entry to modern is the price.
It seems unlikey that MM is being printed as much as futuresight.
It would really depend on how much vaule the set has and where it is concentrated. If the set had $1000 in mythic value with unlimited supply then a 20% drop in vaule would be expected, if the $1000 was mostly concentrated in rares then there would be little effect on goyf.
That list doesn't really reflect junds recent downfall.
MM may not be able to do anything about the fetches but their are pleanty of expensive modern staples besides Bob, and goyf. thought seize, kiki, clique, Cryptic command, affinity lands, ravenger ect...
The problem is MM isn't doing much about them either.
Stats About Mythics
-Mythics are on average 40% rarer than pre-mythic rares
(old blocks about 200 rares, Mythic blocks 35+ mythics)
-They are printing more new cards a year not less
(about 665 now vs. 630 in most pre-mythic block)
-To drop the value of a rare by $1 a mythic must go up $2
-In a 3 year time span deck prices doubled.
I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
But, again, there is a strong negative correlation between card availability and price (ie, low availability --> high price, and vice versa), which Wizards knows. And card prices are the thing that most people cite as the barrier of entry to modern, which Wizards also knows. When people talk about how legacy isn't accessible because of card availability, they are usually talking about how legacy is extremely expensive. "Card availability issues" and "high card prices" are basically synonymous. I can't cite a definition somewhere, but that is always how I've heard the terms used, and many, many other people interpret those terms the way I do. I think Wizards can't or won't directly say that they want to affect secondary market prices on cards, but that is very clearly what they're trying to do, and they've all but spelled it out by talking about card availability.
For what its worth, both of the articles you cite also assume that cost, not availability, is the real barrier to entry of modern, and that Wizards is actively trying to lower the cost of cards. Dr. Jeebus thinks it's the price of the uncommons, not the rares, that's the real problem Modern Masters is meant to solve, but he still clearly thinks it's an issue of cost. And literally the first sentence of the second article is "One of the problems with the Modern format is card prices as a barrier to entry."
I think we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this. We've cleared up basically every other disagreement we had, and all our current disagreements really boil down to whether we think Wizards was implying that they wanted to affect card prices when they said they wanted to increase card availability. That's the crux of the disagreement, and everything else follows from it. You seem to have pretty good reasons for thinking the way you do about card availability, since in your experience availability is not necessarily connected to card price. My experience has been different, though; for me, card availability and price have always been connected, and the terms have always been connected as well.
Oh, I do. I think we'll be disappointed, though.
I'll buy the one that I enjoy the most. For most games that means ones that I can play with my friends regardless of how many people play it overall. Heck, I used to play spellfire long after the product was discontinued simply because my friends played. I would pick up boosters out of bargain bins to play.
As I know people with plenty of money to buy cards but choose not to and who don't play modern because they can't trade for the cards they need you are wrong. Modern is expensive, but I find that locally, card availability is the true barrier to modern. If more people bought singles on the internet, then you could be correct, but since most of the people I know crack packs and trade to acquire cards for their decks the number one barrier they face is card availability. Those cards just don't exist at my shop, the player base just doesn't have them, and the shop only acquires it's singles from the most recent set and it's player base.
Yeah... based on the time last wednesday passed through tomorrow into yesterday the first time last thursday, I would say that because of the aggressive pricing of boosters we won't likely see much movement at all on the high dollar mythics (although that remains to be seen for a card like doubling season if it's in- the demand might drop sharply once the set is released into circulation) and 20% seems like as low as most rares will drop short term since people who crack packs are going to want to recoup their investment. Anything rare+ that sees any tournament play at all should have a starting price very close to the value of the original printing. Some prices will adjust downward from there down the line if their demand is met, but I wouldn't be surprised if any playable rares eventually go up due to supply not being enough to satisfy increasing player demand.
While it is true that many people do equate card availability with card prices, and the two are linked, they are not by any means the same thing. For example, the 12 copies of The Abyss (most I've seen available for a while) and the exactly 1 copy of Chains of Mephistopheles available at TCGplayer right now show actual card availability issues. There is nothing in modern (outside of promos) that is quite that rare yet, but there would be if there were no reprints. This is the entire reason for the modern format, and why they considered starting the format at Mercadian Masques to dodge the reserved list that lets them address those issues and reprint cards where the supply is low. As far as Wizards using the term availability to mean price, I posit that the term they actually use to mean price is desirability. Hence why I say that the only thing they say about price in the announcing modern masters article is:
emphaisis mine.
There is a clear indication that they are aware that the set could lower prices short term, but that they believe those prices will go back up to their former levels. I don't believe their goal was only a short term increase in card availability so the two concepts have to be separate no? I think the en masse assumption that the set has negative price manipulation as a goal is a misinterpretation of semantics combined with an at large assumption that people aren't getting into the format due to their wallets.
Just because I don't agree with everything they say doesn't mean there isn't good information in the articles. The section on card availability in Dr. Jeebus' article was enlightening, and the (yes, guesstimated) charts in the legitmtg article show just how big the potential gap in supply is for older cards. I found it an interesting read.
Fair enough although they most certainly affect one another, and I've indicated my awareness of such, they just aren't directly and solely responsible for each other.
If Modern cost only 200-300$ more than Standard for the best decks, why would new players play Standard ? Just put 100$ more on your deck and you'll have to keep it forever ! (unless it gets banned...)
They want to keep the prices high, but still far from Legacy ones.