Welcome to The Magic Market Index. This weekly article series documents the price changes of cards currently in print, and offers insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. This weekly article series covers all expansion sets and masterpiece series sets in Standard, from the time of their prerelease to the time of their rotation out of Standard. Promotional sets, special sets, pack foils, and non-set releases are not covered.
All pricing is based on TCGPlayer's Market Price.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $3.11 | $3.04 | $3.06 | $2.81 | $0.07 | -$0.02 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $18.88 | $18.88 | $18.88 | $18.88 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total Set Value: | $254.20 | $246.90 | $249.57 | $229.22 | $7.30 | -$2.67 |
| Booster Box EV: | $129.34 | $124.95 | $123.53 | $110.83 | $4.39 | $1.42 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 200% | 204% | 206% | 199% | -4.52% | 0.66% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Arclight Phoenix | $12.43 | $5.20 | $3.77 | $2.63 | $7.23 | $9.80 |
| Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice | $12.34 | $13.98 | $14.36 | $10.87 | -$1.64 | $1.47 |
| March of the Multitudes | $11.72 | $13.06 | $13.18 | $9.46 | -$1.34 | $2.26 |
| Doom Whisperer | $23.60 | $22.43 | $23.44 | $18.87 | $1.17 | $4.73 |
| Steam Vents | $9.46 | $8.85 | $8.59 | $8.04 | $0.61 | $1.42 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Doom Whisperer | $23.60 | $22.43 | $23.44 | $18.87 | $1.17 | $4.73 |
| Assassin's Trophy | $17.82 | $18.29 | $18.34 | $19.29 | -$0.47 | -$1.47 |
| Arclight Phoenix | $12.43 | $5.20 | $3.77 | $2.63 | $7.23 | $9.80 |
| Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice | $12.34 | $13.98 | $14.36 | $10.87 | -$1.64 | $1.47 |
| Vraska, Golgari Queen | $11.92 | $11.67 | $10.03 | $10.59 | $0.25 | $1.33 |
| March of the Multitudes | $11.72 | $13.06 | $13.18 | $9.46 | -$1.34 | $2.26 |
| Steam Vents | $9.46 | $8.85 | $8.59 | $8.04 | $0.61 | $1.42 |
| Risk Factor | $9.19 | $9.05 | $9.02 | $4.91 | $0.14 | $4.28 |
| Watery Grave | $8.82 | $8.25 | $8.30 | $7.65 | $0.57 | $1.17 |
| Sacred Foundry | $8.01 | $7.81 | $7.45 | $7.31 | $0.20 | $0.70 |
| Ral, Izzet Viceroy | $7.78 | $7.83 | $8.39 | $8.61 | -$0.05 | -$0.83 |
| Overgrown Tomb | $7.35 | $7.27 | $6.97 | $6.38 | $0.08 | $0.97 |
| Dream Eater | $5.96 | $6.45 | $6.52 | $6.34 | -$0.49 | -$0.38 |
| Nullhide Ferox | $5.85 | $6.36 | $7.64 | $7.96 | -$0.51 | -$2.11 |
| Temple Garden | $5.57 | $5.44 | $5.89 | $5.78 | $0.13 | -$0.21 |
| Runaway Steam-Kin | $5.22 | $4.97 | $5.29 | $4.50 | $0.25 | $0.72 |
| Divine Visitation | $4.99 | $4.88 | $4.67 | $4.89 | $0.11 | $0.10 |
| Knight of Autumn | $4.52 | $4.23 | $4.62 | $4.36 | $0.29 | $0.16 |
| Ionize | $4.24 | $4.28 | $3.63 | $2.18 | -$0.04 | $2.06 |
| Lazav, the Multifarious | $4.09 | $4.11 | $4.36 | $4.78 | -$0.02 | -$0.69 |
| Experimental Frenzy | $3.93 | $4.23 | $3.75 | $1.63 | -$0.30 | $2.30 |
| Underrealm Lich | $3.81 | $3.90 | $4.07 | $3.97 | -$0.09 | -$0.16 |
| Mission Briefing | $3.73 | $3.90 | $4.92 | $5.78 | -$0.17 | -$2.05 |
| Chromatic Lantern | $3.65 | $3.51 | $3.63 | $3.71 | $0.14 | -$0.06 |
| Legion Warboss | $3.38 | $3.44 | $3.67 | $3.33 | -$0.06 | $0.05 |
| Pelt Collector | $3.33 | $3.61 | $5.91 | $7.58 | -$0.28 | -$4.25 |
| Trostani Discordant | $3.10 | $2.86 | $3.02 | $2.69 | $0.24 | $0.41 |
| Expansion // Explosion | $3.01 | $2.63 | $0.63 | $0.46 | $0.38 | $2.55 |
| Thousand-Year Storm | $2.90 | $2.59 | $2.41 | $2.18 | $0.31 | $0.72 |
| Thief of Sanity | $2.64 | $2.45 | $2.32 | $1.89 | $0.19 | $0.75 |
| Niv-Mizzet, Parun | $2.39 | $1.84 | $1.45 | $1.34 | $0.55 | $1.05 |
| Deafening Clarion | $2.14 | $1.96 | $1.28 | $0.90 | $0.18 | $1.24 |
Commentary
Guilds continues to defy the new set deflation, posting a third week of gains. This is the perfect moment to flip as many boxes and cards as you can. The expected value well exceeds box cost, and the hit-over-miss is extremely low. If you have enough selling power in the market, you could reliable make $300 flipping just ten boxes, even undercutting the sale prices. Seize the moment, as this is well out of the norm.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $1.71 | $1.64 | $1.48 | $1.33 | $0.07 | $0.37 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $13.41 | $12.78 | $14.64 | $15.12 | $0.63 | -$1.71 |
| Total Set Value: | $180.02 | $171.91 | $154.98 | $141.38 | $8.11 | $38.64 |
| Booster Box EV: | $71.69 | $69.45 | $62.16 | $55.42 | $2.23 | $16.27 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 314% | 299% | 266% | 262% | 15.07% | 52.26% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Vivien Reid | $23.03 | $18.92 | $10.43 | $8.75 | $4.11 | $14.28 |
| Nicol Bolas, the Ravager | $22.32 | $21.10 | $21.77 | $21.62 | $1.22 | $0.70 |
| Sarkhan, Fireblood | $12.67 | $11.79 | $11.02 | $11.14 | $0.88 | $1.53 |
| Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants | $11.42 | $10.66 | $10.90 | $9.59 | $0.76 | $1.83 |
| Crucible of Worlds | $13.63 | $14.25 | $14.73 | $14.10 | -$0.62 | -$0.47 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Vivien Reid | $23.03 | $18.92 | $10.43 | $8.75 | $4.11 | $14.28 |
| Nicol Bolas, the Ravager | $22.32 | $21.10 | $21.77 | $21.62 | $1.22 | $0.70 |
| Resplendent Angel | $18.57 | $18.24 | $13.35 | $10.13 | $0.33 | $8.44 |
| Crucible of Worlds | $13.63 | $14.25 | $14.73 | $14.10 | -$0.62 | -$0.47 |
| Sarkhan, Fireblood | $12.67 | $11.79 | $11.02 | $11.14 | $0.88 | $1.53 |
| Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants | $11.42 | $10.66 | $10.90 | $9.59 | $0.76 | $1.83 |
| Scapeshift | $7.44 | $7.47 | $7.68 | $7.71 | -$0.03 | -$0.27 |
| Omniscience | $5.01 | $4.80 | $4.81 | $4.62 | $0.21 | $0.39 |
| Tezzeret, Artifice Master | $4.97 | $5.11 | $4.93 | $5.16 | -$0.14 | -$0.19 |
| Thorn Lieutenant | $4.83 | $4.97 | $4.32 | $2.67 | -$0.14 | $2.16 |
| Banefire | $4.74 | $4.17 | $4.14 | $2.31 | $0.57 | $2.43 |
| Cleansing Nova | $4.65 | $4.53 | $2.49 | $1.91 | $0.12 | $2.74 |
| Liliana, Untouched by Death | $3.92 | $3.69 | $3.61 | $3.72 | $0.23 | $0.20 |
| Arcades, the Strategist | $3.20 | $3.16 | $3.08 | $3.14 | $0.04 | $0.06 |
| Stitcher's Supplier | $2.82 | $2.92 | $2.61 | $2.05 | -$0.10 | $0.77 |
| Death Baron | $2.71 | $2.52 | $2.68 | $2.66 | $0.19 | $0.05 |
| Sai, Master Thopterist | $2.61 | $2.65 | $2.59 | $2.70 | -$0.04 | -$0.09 |
| Chromium, the Mutable | $2.26 | $1.91 | $1.70 | $1.57 | $0.35 | $0.69 |
Commentary
Core 2019 is really starting to prosper in this new Standard era. After hitting a major slump, very reminiscent of Dominaria's decline, we've now gained 30% in expected value this month, and are headed quickly back to a solid set.
Vivien Reid has overtaken the number one spot, and is the set's breakout star this month. Vivien has gone from mere mediocrity to a staple in Standard during rotation. She's becoming a principal card in multiple aggro and midrange builds.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $2.23 | $2.22 | $2.16 | $1.93 | $0.01 | $0.30 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $1.68 | $1.58 | $1.80 | $2.07 | $0.10 | -$0.39 |
| Total Set Value: | $226.88 | $226.61 | $224.59 | $203.90 | $0.27 | $22.98 |
| Booster Box EV: | $98.01 | $97.79 | $95.08 | $84.30 | $0.22 | $13.71 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 374% | 372% | 381% | 395% | 2.48% | -20.32% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Karn, Scion of Urza | $23.46 | $25.36 | $26.32 | $26.31 | -$1.90 | -$2.85 |
| Lyra Dawnbringer | $21.04 | $22.75 | $19.52 | $13.27 | -$1.71 | $7.77 |
| Sulfur Falls | $10.97 | $9.53 | $7.35 | $5.38 | $1.44 | $5.59 |
| Teferi, Hero of Dominaria | $47.26 | $46.31 | $46.85 | $43.33 | $0.95 | $3.93 |
| History of Benalia | $23.69 | $23.21 | $25.36 | $23.67 | $0.48 | $0.02 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Teferi, Hero of Dominaria | $47.26 | $46.31 | $46.85 | $43.33 | $0.95 | $3.93 |
| History of Benalia | $23.69 | $23.21 | $25.36 | $23.67 | $0.48 | $0.02 |
| Karn, Scion of Urza | $23.46 | $25.36 | $26.32 | $26.31 | -$1.90 | -$2.85 |
| Lyra Dawnbringer | $21.04 | $22.75 | $19.52 | $13.27 | -$1.71 | $7.77 |
| Sulfur Falls | $10.97 | $9.53 | $7.35 | $5.38 | $1.44 | $5.59 |
| Mox Amber | $8.28 | $8.04 | $8.58 | $9.40 | $0.24 | -$1.12 |
| Woodland Cemetery | $6.87 | $6.66 | $5.40 | $4.63 | $0.21 | $2.24 |
| Goblin Chainwhirler | $5.13 | $5.16 | $5.07 | $4.18 | -$0.03 | $0.95 |
| Clifftop Retreat | $5.09 | $4.83 | $4.37 | $2.85 | $0.26 | $2.24 |
| Shalai, Voice of Plenty | $4.98 | $4.78 | $4.28 | $2.97 | $0.20 | $2.01 |
| Muldrotha, the Gravetide | $4.09 | $4.08 | $4.25 | $3.98 | $0.01 | $0.11 |
| Steel Leaf Champion | $3.60 | $3.43 | $4.00 | $3.98 | $0.17 | -$0.38 |
| Jaya Ballard | $3.33 | $3.58 | $3.74 | $3.63 | -$0.25 | -$0.30 |
| Isolated Chapel | $3.26 | $3.18 | $3.10 | $3.10 | $0.08 | $0.16 |
| Helm of the Host | $3.08 | $2.88 | $2.58 | $2.11 | $0.20 | $0.97 |
| Hinterland Harbor | $2.92 | $2.84 | $2.72 | $2.63 | $0.08 | $0.29 |
| Gilded Lotus | $2.62 | $2.71 | $2.84 | $2.85 | -$0.09 | -$0.23 |
| Verix Bladewing | $2.26 | $2.27 | $2.42 | $2.45 | -$0.01 | -$0.19 |
| Wizard's Lightning | $2.22 | $2.07 | $2.12 | $1.98 | $0.15 | $0.24 |
| Multani, Yavimaya's Avatar | $2.03 | $1.88 | $1.98 | $1.99 | $0.15 | $0.04 |
Commentary
Dominaria's expected value has now surpassed it's average box price, finally offering positive returns. As its hit-over-miss indicates, however, Dominara is still very top-heavy. The expected value of a miss box is only $42, and real returns only happen with strong luck or by buying enough boxes to offset the variability.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $2.15 | $2.08 | $1.99 | $1.87 | $0.07 | $0.28 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $0.17 | $0.18 | $0.19 | $0.18 | -$0.01 | -$0.01 |
| Total Set Value: | $180.60 | $174.10 | $167.29 | $158.14 | $6.50 | $22.46 |
| Booster Box EV: | $95.60 | $92.29 | $87.93 | $81.05 | $3.32 | $14.55 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 258% | 246% | 234% | 232% | 12.2% | 26.24% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rekindling Phoenix | $25.75 | $23.03 | $21.51 | $19.80 | $2.72 | $5.95 |
| The Immortal Sun | $14.20 | $12.18 | $11.32 | $10.70 | $2.02 | $3.50 |
| Jadelight Ranger | $14.59 | $12.64 | $7.62 | $5.66 | $1.95 | $8.93 |
| Angrath, the Flame-Chained | $5.57 | $4.78 | $5.49 | $5.45 | $0.79 | $0.12 |
| Ghalta, Primal Hunger | $7.09 | $7.80 | $8.14 | $8.73 | -$0.71 | -$1.64 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rekindling Phoenix | $25.75 | $23.03 | $21.51 | $19.80 | $2.72 | $5.95 |
| Jadelight Ranger | $14.59 | $12.64 | $7.62 | $5.66 | $1.95 | $8.93 |
| The Immortal Sun | $14.20 | $12.18 | $11.32 | $10.70 | $2.02 | $3.50 |
| Zacama, Primal Calamity | $9.06 | $9.54 | $9.50 | $10.05 | -$0.48 | -$0.99 |
| Twilight Prophet | $8.46 | $8.86 | $8.83 | $8.94 | -$0.40 | -$0.48 |
| Ghalta, Primal Hunger | $7.09 | $7.80 | $8.14 | $8.73 | -$0.71 | -$1.64 |
| Elenda, the Dusk Rose | $6.85 | $6.85 | $6.79 | $6.94 | $0.00 | -$0.09 |
| Journey to Eternity | $5.78 | $5.13 | $6.38 | $3.85 | $0.65 | $1.93 |
| Angrath, the Flame-Chained | $5.57 | $4.78 | $5.49 | $5.45 | $0.79 | $0.12 |
| Huatli, Radiant Champion | $5.49 | $5.90 | $5.72 | $5.30 | -$0.41 | $0.19 |
| Wayward Swordtooth | $5.26 | $5.22 | $5.16 | $5.00 | $0.04 | $0.26 |
| Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca | $5.16 | $5.06 | $5.21 | $5.42 | $0.10 | -$0.26 |
| Azor's Gateway | $4.36 | $4.18 | $3.63 | $3.25 | $0.18 | $1.11 |
| Radiant Destiny | $4.30 | $4.25 | $4.07 | $3.79 | $0.05 | $0.51 |
| Etali, Primal Storm | $3.93 | $4.09 | $4.18 | $4.18 | -$0.16 | -$0.25 |
| Tendershoot Dryad | $3.80 | $3.79 | $3.76 | $3.60 | $0.01 | $0.20 |
| Curious Obsession | $3.43 | $2.94 | $2.51 | $1.54 | $0.49 | $1.89 |
| Polyraptor | $2.61 | $2.51 | $2.58 | $2.66 | $0.10 | -$0.05 |
| Nezahal, Primal Tide | $2.52 | $2.38 | $2.50 | $2.40 | $0.14 | $0.12 |
| Dire Fleet Daredevil | $2.51 | $2.60 | $2.62 | $2.48 | -$0.09 | $0.03 |
| Timestream Navigator | $2.21 | $2.32 | $2.36 | $2.18 | -$0.11 | $0.03 |
Commentary
The new Standard has been kind across the board, and even Rivals shows it had room to grow. This growth is seen across the bulk of the set, leaning slightly toward the top. Hit-over-miss is still holding strong, however, and Rivals remains quite profitable.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $2.28 | $2.22 | $2.13 | $1.97 | $0.06 | $0.31 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $0.29 | $0.30 | $0.31 | $0.25 | -$0.01 | $0.04 |
| Total Set Value: | $222.65 | $216.32 | $205.37 | $188.85 | $6.33 | $33.80 |
| Booster Box EV: | $109.69 | $107.81 | $103.84 | $95.43 | $1.87 | $14.25 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 281% | 274% | 258% | 254% | 7.54% | 26.98% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Vraska, Relic Seeker | $22.23 | $19.28 | $13.32 | $9.88 | $2.95 | $12.35 |
| Carnage Tyrant | $21.48 | $20.23 | $19.29 | $18.97 | $1.25 | $2.51 |
| Vraska's Contempt | $18.29 | $17.06 | $15.52 | $14.03 | $1.23 | $4.26 |
| Tocatli Honor Guard | $1.00 | $0.42 | $0.26 | $0.22 | $0.58 | $0.78 |
| Search for Azcanta | $21.25 | $21.78 | $21.41 | $20.94 | -$0.53 | $0.31 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 10/25 | 10/20 | 10/11 | 10/04 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Vraska, Relic Seeker | $22.23 | $19.28 | $13.32 | $9.88 | $2.95 | $12.35 |
| Carnage Tyrant | $21.48 | $20.23 | $19.29 | $18.97 | $1.25 | $2.51 |
| Search for Azcanta | $21.25 | $21.78 | $21.41 | $20.94 | -$0.53 | $0.31 |
| Vraska's Contempt | $18.29 | $17.06 | $15.52 | $14.03 | $1.23 | $4.26 |
| Settle the Wreckage | $7.75 | $7.46 | $7.07 | $6.37 | $0.29 | $1.38 |
| Legion's Landing | $6.17 | $5.77 | $5.32 | $4.25 | $0.40 | $1.92 |
| Drowned Catacomb | $6.16 | $6.45 | $5.92 | $5.41 | -$0.29 | $0.75 |
| Growing Rites of Itlimoc | $6.13 | $6.27 | $6.41 | $5.88 | -$0.14 | $0.25 |
| Sunpetal Grove | $5.69 | $5.76 | $5.30 | $4.57 | -$0.07 | $1.12 |
| Vanquisher's Banner | $5.09 | $4.75 | $4.58 | $3.57 | $0.34 | $1.52 |
| Glacial Fortress | $4.98 | $5.00 | $4.62 | $4.69 | -$0.02 | $0.29 |
| Siren Stormtamer | $4.64 | $4.71 | $4.25 | $3.55 | -$0.07 | $1.09 |
| Star of Extinction | $4.39 | $4.43 | $4.09 | $1.82 | -$0.04 | $2.57 |
| Dragonskull Summit | $3.55 | $3.41 | $3.43 | $3.63 | $0.14 | -$0.08 |
| Field of Ruin | $3.53 | $3.71 | $3.91 | $3.76 | -$0.18 | -$0.23 |
| Treasure Map | $3.53 | $3.60 | $3.14 | $3.00 | -$0.07 | $0.53 |
| Sorcerous Spyglass | $3.42 | $3.40 | $3.33 | $2.97 | $0.02 | $0.45 |
| Jace, Cunning Castaway | $3.13 | $2.73 | $2.73 | $2.90 | $0.40 | $0.23 |
| Hostage Taker | $3.03 | $2.96 | $2.76 | $2.76 | $0.07 | $0.27 |
| Rootbound Crag | $2.87 | $2.87 | $3.25 | $3.31 | $0.00 | -$0.44 |
| Primal Amulet | $2.85 | $2.67 | $3.22 | $2.77 | $0.18 | $0.08 |
| Vona, Butcher of Magan | $2.83 | $2.68 | $2.44 | $2.28 | $0.15 | $0.55 |
| Thaumatic Compass | $2.80 | $2.89 | $2.78 | $2.58 | -$0.09 | $0.22 |
| Huatli, Warrior Poet | $2.63 | $2.76 | $2.78 | $2.74 | -$0.13 | -$0.11 |
| Gishath, Sun's Avatar | $2.58 | $2.81 | $2.81 | $2.82 | -$0.23 | -$0.24 |
| Ripjaw Raptor | $2.55 | $2.80 | $2.85 | $2.78 | -$0.25 | -$0.23 |
| Shapers' Sanctuary | $2.22 | $2.11 | $2.29 | $2.17 | $0.11 | $0.05 |
Commentary
Even Ixalan found more room to grow this week. Although hit-over-miss is inching closer to 300%, the miss value is still over $50. It's the massive $150 hit value that's inflating the difference. Average fluctuations seem to be between $75 and $100.
Parting Thoughts...
The Standard rotation has been an absolute boon to the market. Every Standard set has seen a full month of growth, and each set's estimated box value now surpasses its cost. We'll undoubtedly see a market correction soon, as supply and demand dictate a coming deflation. Until then, however, you should be flipping as many boxes and cards as you can.
-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Nov 2, 2018