Welcome to a special edition of The Magic Market Index. Normally, we cover the sets in Standard, but today I wanted to do something different. Masters 25 was recently spoiled, and it has caused quite a commotion in the Magic market. Reactions are mixed, but extreme. With doomsayers and promoters both giving weighted views, I wanted to look at the set from an unbiased, purely analytical viewpoint.
I have never claimed to be a master at price speculation or market premonition, but aggregating existing data is definitely my forte. Today is the first day we can see a full picture of the set's preorder prices, which is traditionally the highest overall value a set will ever have while it is in print. There's quite a bit of pricing data to go over, so I've broken it down by rarity.
Pricing has been pulled from five different sources: TCGPlayer's Market Price, Troll and Toad's Pre-Order Prices, Star City Game's Pre-Order Prices, Magic Card Market's Pre-Order Prices (converted to USD), and TCGPlayer's Mid Prices. This will gives us a large cross-section of the entire Magic market, so we can get a good measure of Masters 25's value. Please note, I am going into this as unbiased as possible - I will let the data tell the story.
Masters 25's Mythic Rares
Let's start at the top. Mythic rares almost always hold a set's largest values, and Masters 25 is no different. This is also where a lot of the controversy for the set has taken place. While Masters 25 has some high-end marquee cards here - like Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Imperial Recruiter - it also has some mythic duds, like Prossh, Skyraider of Kher. The mythic selection seems to be evenly broken in two: half are high value, and half are value-light. The value-light side has sparked quite a bit of grumbling, but let's look at the data.
Averaging the mythic rare card's prices across all five sources shows us the regular return on a mythic is around $23. That seems low, but that's almost perfectly on point for the price of the booster pack. Booster pack prices vary a bit from where you purchase them, but Masters 25 should run you about 3 times the price of a regular booster pack. A normal expansion set has an average mythic rares value between $7 and $8, so a value of $23 here is exactly where we would expect it to be. The average mythic value is neither high nor low.
The tricky part is the actual rate of getting mythics in any given box that will surpass the average pack expectation to offset the losses from value-light rares. With such big swings between high dollar mythics and duds, it seems a gamble on whether a box will attain it's value. The rate of mythics per box is just over 3. The chance of actually getting 2 or 4 mythics per box is unknown, so we will have to assume a steady rate of 3 per box. This gives us a target of around $70 that our mythics should hit to be an at-least-average box. Assuming we count all mythics that are less than the pack price as duds, three mythics in a box gives us a 15% chance of ended up with all duds. That's 15% is disheartening, but it also means that 85% of the boosters will not be all duds. In fact, there is a full 80% chance that we will hit close to, or even exceed, the target of $70. Within that 80%, there's a 40% chance we can do this in a singular card, by getting one of the top three mythics, and a 15% chance we will greatly exceed our $70 target.
Let's do a bit of rounding so we can quantify this nicely:
One in seven boxes will fall short of it's mythic rare mark, five in seven boxes will be on par, and one in seven boxes will be a mythic value party.
It can be scary, looking at the low value mythics and knowing there's a chance a box or pack can be beyond disappointing. The math is solid, however. The value is there. It's a bit top-loaded, but it's honestly better than many expansions that see the set value all held within a couple of cards. It might be disheartening knowing that you might pull a Prossh - and especially so if you ever do - but it's no different from the Boneyard Parleys and Axis of Mortalitys in expansion sets. Six out of seven boxes having value is really good odds.
Table: Masters 25's Mythics
| Card Name | TCGPlayer Market |
Troll and Toad |
Star City Games |
MCM Low |
TCGPlayer Mid |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jace, the Mind Sculptor |  |
$78.82 | $93.99 | $109.99 | $112.55 | $134.99 |
| Imperial Recruiter | |
$67.17 | $59.99 | $74.99 | $61.44 | $69.94 |
| Chalice of the Void | |
$59.99 | $49.99 | $54.99 | $54.27 | $57.99 |
| Ensnaring Bridge | |
$34.99 | $32.99 | $34.99 | $36.47 | $35.99 |
| Vendilion Clique | |
$24.99 | $21.99 | $24.99 | $26.36 | $27.97 |
| Phyrexian Obliterator | |
$17.99 | $16.99 | $19.99 | $22.71 | $18.99 |
| Animar, Soul of Elements | |
$14.47 | $13.99 | $17.99 | $16.58 | $16.35 |
| Master of the Wild Hunt | |
$5.99 | $4.49 | $5.99 | $8.23 | $7.62 |
| Gisela, Blade of Goldnight | |
$3.99 | $3.99 | $4.99 | $5.39 | $5.48 |
| Doomsday | |
$3.49 | $3.49 | $4.99 | $3.41 | $4.96 |
| Armageddon | |
$2.99 | $3.29 | $3.99 | $3.65 | $4.11 |
| Akroma, Angel of Wrath | |
$2.99 | $1.99 | $2.49 | $3.67 | $8.99 |
| Akroma, Angel of Fury | |
$1.49 | $1.99 | $1.99 | $1.55 | $2.93 |
| Tree of Redemption | |
$1.49 | $1.29 | $1.99 | $3.55 | $2.42 |
| Prossh, Skyraider of Kher | |
$0.99 | $0.99 | $1.49 | $1.21 | $1.55 |
Masters 25's Rares
Mythics have the spotlight for value, but it is the rare cards that bare the burden of being foot soldiers of total value. A box of Masters 25 will have 22 rares within it, and this where the majority of a box's value will come from. There are 53 rares in Masters 25, and they range in value from under $0.50 to just over $45, with an average value of $5.85. If we toss out all of the duds that are at or under $0.50, the rest will add an average of $125 to a box's value.
Just as the mythic's value had some variance, so too will the rares from a box. However, as these are spread out over 22 cards, that variance will be exceptionally smaller. Figuring out the standard deviation and mean absolute deviation for the rares and rare slot becomes much more useful.
The rare cards themselves have a standard deviation of $8.40 and a mean deviation of $5.73. Adding in mythics at their rate, the card slot has a standard deviation of $14.30 and a mean deviation of $8.54. A normal expansion has a rare-slot standard deviation of around $3.50 and a mean deviation of around $2.15. As prices are three times higher for Masters 25, the growth in deviation is only slightly elevated from normal.
Put simply:
Masters 25 has a slightly higher rare deviation than a normal set, but nothing abnormal.
While using five different pricing sources can increase the deviation slightly, it is most likely the the fact that we are looking at pre-order prices that has its deviation inflate. As a set settles down, so too does its deviation. Even if these figures remain, however, neither is high enough to warrant concern about a box rare value fluctuations. There will be lower end and higher end rare pools, but none should stray from the norm by any concerning margins.
Table: Masters 25's Rares with Value
| Card Name | TCGPlayer Market |
Troll and Toad |
Star City Games |
MCM Low |
TCGPlayer Mid |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishadan Port | |
$44.99 | $38.99 | $49.99 | $48.57 | $55.18 |
| Fetid Heath | |
$22.99 | $14.99 | $24.99 | $23.33 | $24.74 |
| Azusa, Lost but Seeking | |
$19.99 | $16.99 | $19.99 | $18.02 | $19.99 |
| Blood Moon | |
$17.99 | $13.99 | $19.99 | $24.78 | $21.27 |
| Twilight Mire | |
$15.99 | $14.99 | $17.99 | $21.82 | $20.98 |
| Pact of Negation | |
$15.99 | $14.99 | $17.99 | $18.13 | $18.49 |
| Cascade Bluffs | |
$13.99 | $10.99 | $14.99 | $18.41 | $15.43 |
| Rugged Prairie | |
$12.99 | $10.99 | $14.99 | $15.95 | $15.99 |
| Summoner's Pact | |
$12.99 | $9.99 | $14.99 | $16.89 | $15.99 |
| Thalia, Guardian of Thraben | |
$12.94 | $11.99 | $14.99 | $16.22 | $12.95 |
| Flooded Grove | |
$9.99 | $10.99 | $11.99 | $13.51 | $12.68 |
| Mikokoro, Center of the Sea | |
$6.99 | $5.49 | $7.99 | $6.75 | $8.08 |
| Coalition Relic | |
$4.99 | $4.99 | $5.99 | $8.28 | $6.58 |
| Eidolon of the Great Revel | |
$4.99 | $4.79 | $5.99 | $9.37 | $5.98 |
| Eladamri's Call | |
$3.99 | $3.79 | $4.99 | $5.77 | $6.98 |
| Elvish Piper | |
$3.99 | $3.49 | $4.99 | $4.61 | $4.98 |
| Protean Hulk | |
$3.99 | $3.49 | $4.99 | $4.59 | $5.09 |
| Rest in Peace | |
$3.49 | $2.99 | $3.99 | $6.15 | $4.96 |
| Luminarch Ascension | |
$3.49 | $2.49 | $2.99 | $2.41 | $4.26 |
| Darien, King of Kjeldor | |
$3.49 | $2.29 | $3.99 | $1.72 | $3.98 |
| Vindicate | |
$2.99 | $3.49 | $3.99 | $4.27 | $6.98 |
| Magus of the Wheel | |
$2.99 | $2.99 | $2.99 | $6.37 | $5.42 |
| Pendelhaven | |
$2.99 | $2.49 | $3.99 | $7.37 | $5.48 |
| Living Death | |
$2.99 | $2.49 | $2.99 | $2.68 | $3.98 |
| Pernicious Deed | |
$2.49 | $1.99 | $2.99 | $4.29 | $4.07 |
| Strionic Resonator | |
$1.99 | $1.99 | $2.99 | $4.90 | $3.97 |
| Nicol Bolas | |
$1.99 | $1.89 | $1.99 | $2.76 | $2.61 |
Masters 25's Uncommons
Thus far, we have around $70 in mythics and $125 in rares per box. This is normally where people stop, but we've gone this far, so we might as well be complete. Rest assured, uncommons can add value to a box, they just do so at a smaller rate. There are 80 uncommons in Masters 25, and there are 12 that have a some value of significance. These twelve have an average value of $1.18 across all five pricing sources. With the rate that these twelve will show within a box, they should add an average of $12.50 in value to any given booster box.
Twelve dollars in sellable uncommons might not be much, but it takes us from $195 in booster value to $207. I hate odd numbers, and there's a bit of iffyness on actually selling some of these uncommons, so lets round that down to $205 for further calculations.
Table: Masters 25's Twelve Valued Uncommons
| Card Name | TCGPlayer Market |
Troll and Toad |
Star City Games |
MCM Low |
TCGPlayer Mid |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cursecatcher | |
$4.99 | $2.99 | $5.99 | $3.96 | $5.51 |
| Street Wraith | |
$3.49 | $2.79 | $3.99 | $6.14 | $5.25 |
| Simian Spirit Guide | |
$2.49 | $1.99 | $2.99 | $3.36 | $3.47 |
| Lightning Bolt | |
$2.49 | $1.29 | $2.99 | $2.82 | $2.99 |
| Ash Barrens | |
$1.99 | $1.79 | $2.99 | $4.26 | $3.06 |
| Boros Charm | |
$1.99 | $1.79 | $2.49 | $2.73 | $3.98 |
| Utopia Sprawl | |
$1.99 | $1.49 | $2.49 | $3.67 | $3.77 |
| Ancient Stirrings | |
$1.79 | $1.49 | $1.99 | $3.67 | $3.04 |
| Swords to Plowshares | |
$1.49 | $0.99 | $1.99 | $0.92 | $1.89 |
| Regrowth | |
$0.79 | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.81 | $2.78 |
| Rancor | |
$0.79 | $0.99 | $0.99 | $0.42 | $1.48 |
| Ravenous Chupacabra | |
$0.79 | $0.79 | $0.99 | $0.28 | $1.42 |
Masters 25's Commons
There are only a few commons in Masters 25 that have any value of note. These values vary wildly between our pricing sources, so it's hard to make out any value they would truly add to a booster. Calculating the average for the top five commons, across all five sources, indicates the better commons could add as much as $8 to a booster box's value. Like the uncommons above, I feel the need to round this down for safer estimations: the good commons could add about $5 to a booster box's value.
Table: Masters 25's Possible Value Commons
| Card Name | TCGPlayer Market |
Troll and Toad |
Star City Games |
MCM Low |
TCGPlayer Mid |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relentless Rats | |
$0.99 | $0.99 | $1.49 | $0.86 | $2.20 |
| Nettle Sentinel | |
$0.79 | $0.79 | $0.99 | $2.10 | $1.47 |
| Counterspell | |
0.49 | $0.79 | $0.99 | $0.81 | $1.68 |
| Brainstorm | |
0.49 | $0.49 | $0.75 | $1.21 | $1.44 |
| Elvish Aberration | |
0.49 | $0.25 | $0.15 | $0.06 | $0.18 |
| Supernatural Stamina | |
0.49 | $0.25 | $0.15 | $0.06 | $0.18 |
| Arcane Denial | |
0.25 | $0.99 | $0.49 | $0.58 | $0.92 |
| Cultivate | |
0.25 | $0.49 | $0.49 | $0.18 | $1.12 |
| Dark Ritual | |
0.25 | $0.35 | $0.59 | $0.85 | $1.28 |
| Unearth | |
0.25 | $0.35 | $0.49 | $2.13 | $0.66 |
| Diabolic Edict | |
0.25 | $0.35 | $0.49 | $0.91 | $1.19 |
| Nihil Spellbomb | |
0.25 | $0.35 | $0.25 | $0.42 | $1.17 |
Masters 25's Final Calculations
It's been a lot of math, but we're nearing the end. The only other cards in the pack are tokens and foils. While tokens generally do not add value, foils most certainly do. There's a problem in trying to calculate the foil prices, however. There are very little sources to go by. Not even our five pricing sources have reliable data on foils for presale.
Traditionally, foils add about $10 in value to a booster box with a good level of variance between boxes. Given the three-times-price of Masters 25, this would mean it should have an average of $30 per box. A strong case can easily be made that it should be at least this value, if not higher, given the higher than normal demand of its common and uncommon cards. Foil Brainstorms go for $7-$8, afterall.
I went down a long rabbit hole trying to find us a reliable price for foils, but to no avail. Everything I did find reinforced the idea that $30 of value in a box is about right, if not a little low. If you want to play it a bit safer, you should take a few dollars from this number.
Let us look at the final table, which shows the computed values per source, before wrapping up.
Table: Masters 25's Overall Set Valuation
| Calculated Value | TCGPlayer Market |
Troll and Toad |
Star City Games |
MCM Low |
TCGPlayer Mid |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Set Value: | $671.93 | $618.98 | $758.98 | $778.18 | $877.67 | |
| Rare Slot Average: | $7.28 | $6.56 | $8.31 | $8.72 | $9.28 | |
| Rare Slot Deviation: | $12.88 | $12.47 | $14.94 | $14.72 | $16.48 | |
| Estimated Single Pack Value: | $9.20 | $8.50 | $10.81 | $11.94 | $14.18 | |
| Estimated Booster Box Value: | $229.95 | $212.60 | $270.35 | $298.42 | $354.51 |
Conclusion
TCGPlayer Mid is definitely inflated, as people are throwing in higher than normal preorder prices, hoping to cash in on the hype. The others are much more in line with what we expect.
The average cost of a Masters 25 booster box is $200 - if you're paying more than that, you need to shop around. All five pricing sources show values higher than this from a booster. Even discounting the inflated TCGPlayer Mid, they average $260 of value in a booster box. These are preorder prices, which are always a bit higher, and the booster box estimated value will definitely drop closer to $200 as the weeks go on. That said, it is a very clear picture that there is value to be had in Masters 25.
Honestly, I went in to this expected the doomsayers to be closer to the truth. There's nothing like seeing multiple low-value mythics to get your hesitation and doubt going. Buying individual packs is much more of a gamble, given the higher price, but booster boxes will pay out their expected value. Investors should be able to feel comfortable when they consider the set.
-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Mar 7, 2018-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Mar 6, 2018Furthermore, very, very few of the high value cards see competitive play, a marker of the ability of a card's value to withstand a reprint in the long term.
Does anyone honestly believe that filter lands see more play than shocks? The price of shocks is so much lower than filters because shocks were reprinted in massive numbers in RTR block, whereas the filters were only printed (outside of the Expeditions) in the original Shadowmoor block 10 years ago, when the player base was far smaller.
I'd be curious to see where prices are for this set in two months, because I'd be shocked if the EV of a booster box is anywhere close to where these calculations peg it before release.
-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Mar 6, 2018-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Mar 5, 2018Will an Imperial Recruiter keep his 70$ price tag after a week? And after a month?
-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Mar 5, 2018-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Mar 4, 2018-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Mar 4, 2018$28.90 in foil cards value per booster box.
Foil value variance is, of course, quite high though.
-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Mar 4, 2018Mythic
medium
Master of the Wild Hunt averaged value 6.74
Now we use your estimate of 3 mythics per box, Mythics add 19.42 value to the box
Now rares. assuming like you that the ones worth less then buck are 0.
Nicol Bolas averaged value 2.05
Our box has 22 of these in it. valued at 45.06
Now uncommons
I am going to use your numbers because with 75 cracked you almost have a full set making average a applicaple option since you likely will get all of them. so 12.50
Now commons Same as the uncommons we have enough cracked that you should get what you are looking for atleast once. Lets add $5.
Foils, I have no data it seems like a total crapshoot. Frankly I am tempted to add 0 but instead we will use your value since you COULD hit a jackpot.... $30
We add that together we get
111.98
This is your medium(ish) value of a box.
-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Mar 4, 2018The median value of rares is right at $2, give or take a few cents depending on where you price. This means that if you pick up a single pack at random, you have the highest odds of getting a card that's worth about $2. However, once you start adding additional boosters, this number gets more and more unrealistic and at some point meaningless.
In example, lets say there are only three rares in the set. Two of those cards are worth $1, and the third is worth $10. The median is exactly $1, but the average is $4. If you open up a single pack, the median says you'll probably get a $1 card out of it - which is accurate as you have 2/3rds of a chance of that. The average of $4 doesn't make sense here - you literally can't get a $4 card.
Once we move to boxes, however, the roles reverse. In 25 packs, the median expects $25 while the average expects $100. The average is obviously close to the truth, while the median is ridiculously useless here. You'll average just over 8 of the $10 cards here, with a decent degree of variance, so looking at the median gives us no benefit. This example is a bit extreme, obviously, but it's a good illustration of the differences between median and average when you're talking about packs vs boxes.
More directly to Masters 25: There is a 1.78% chance (about 1 in 56) that if you crack a booster box you will not get one single mythic or rare that is over $15. It's the horriblest of horrible boxes. The thing that nightmares are made of. Yet, that box will still have a much higher average per pack than the median. That average here is one and a half times that of the median.
In fact, there's only a 1/1000 chance that a box is so horrible it's average is equal to the mean.
tl;dr - Median for singular pack, Average for boosters boxes
-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Mar 6, 2018-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Mar 4, 2018My impression from the people who are disappointed with the set is different from yours though. I think people are complaining that buying a low number of boosters is much more risky than in regular sets, which you point out in the end:This means that for people not to lose when buying masters 25 they have to cash out on a box (or something close to that), which is already a high entry barrier for what is supposed to be a celebration set.
I don't know, just leaves a bad taste in your mouth knowing that WoTC is basically forcing you to spend a lot of money for you to get a decent return on your investment. Not to mention that I'm a bit skeptical about the value retention capacity of many cards from the mythic and rare list after the market gets flooded with more copies. Anyway, I think the conclusion is that if you have the money to buy a box and wants to, there is no harm in doing that, but don't try to gamble on individual packs.
-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Mar 4, 2018Very well said.
It's a well known fact that if you want a card, you'll have a better time buying the actual card rather then buying boosters until you open that said card. It depends all in the need rather then the value. If you decide to buy a box it's obvious you do it because you can and like cracking packs. Otherwise, you're better off buying what you want directly, especially since some of these will probably go down in value once more copies start floating around the market.
-
View User Profile
-
Send Message
Posted Mar 4, 2018We generally focus on an individual, small group, or LGS looking at the market. Someone who can buy anywhere from a box to a few, with the idea of selling individuals for a profit, or to get the cards they want and recoup their losses.
For individual packs, it's almost always a scratch-off lottery ticket. Most packs are duds, some let you break even, and a smaller minority are winners. It's extremely rare to see any in-print set break this mold.