It is the dawn of a new Standard, with Shadows over Innistrad replacing Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged. Here it is time to look backwards to see into the future of the Magic Market and what the future will hold for Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged. This review will be focus on the value of the card, not necessarily the playability of the card, but the two are usually linked.
There are very few unplayable cards that are worth money in the Modern age of Magic. As well, just because a card is good does not mean it will be expensive. A lot of Commander-playable cards are like that. They are cheaper and tend to be easy to get. Looking five or more years down the road at some cards is not worth it because by the time that card is worth something, it could have been reprinted. Lands that tap for more than one color and see play in Standard are safe bets for market increase post-rotation. Lands of note are ones that can enter the battlefield untapped, like the shocklands or Scars of Mirrodin's fastlands, or have a good effect, like "creature lands" such as Creeping Tar Pit, Celestial Colonnade, Raging Ravine.
All cards will lose value upon rotation out of Standard, even if only played in Modern or Eternal formats. If a card already sees play in Modern prior to the rotation, it stands to good reason that it will continue being good and will not suffer too much of a drop in value, like how Thoughtseize did not drop much at all from when it rotated out of Standard in Theros. The fetchlands of Khans of Tarkir will no doubt have a similar fate.
This article is not looking into predicting what will be good with new cards coming out or what new decks will emerge, as that requires many variables that are uncontrollable and beyond the scope of what is being written here. If the cards could slide into a current deck or based on a popular Standard deck, that is worth speculating on. Slotting cards into decks that would come out of thin air is not advisable. Also, there will be a guide for looking into choice investments from the rest of Standard when Shadows over Innistrad is fully spoiled later this week, along with what looks good from Shadows over Innistrad.
The best time to get rid of the cards that are Standard only is now until the release of Shadows over Innistrad. The best time to trade for Modern playables from these two sets is between the prerelease of Shadows over Innistrad up to the first month of the set's release. After that, the demand for Modern will come back now that most players will have the cards they really wanted from Shadows over Innistrad.
Khans of Tarkir
| Price as of 3/21 |
Keep |
Comment | |
| Abzan Ascendancy | $0.33 | Y | This card sees fringe play in some Modern Abzan decks. |
| Abzan Charm | $0.48 | Y | The effect is unique and good in Abzan decks. |
| Altar of the Brood | $0.49 | Y | Mill effects are a casual favorite, and this is one of the better mill cards. |
| Anafenza, the Foremost | $3.91 | Y | Even in Modern, a three mana 4/4 with upside that is generally relevant is good. It is not going to be expensive, but will not be worthless. |
| Ankle Shanker | $0.29 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Ashcloud Phoenix | $0.79 | N | This is not going to see play in any format where there are one-mana exile effects that see a lot of play. |
| Avalanche Tusker | $0.29 | N | It saw no play in Standard, and it will see the same amount of play as that. |
| Become Immense | $1.12 | Y | Delve cards are either powerful or unplayable. This is powerful. |
| Bloodfell Caves | $0.14 | Y | These are the best mana fixing at common. |
| Bloodsoaked Champion | $0.94 | N | There are better choices if you want a card to return from the graveyard to play repeatedly. |
| Blossoming Sands | $0.14 | Y | This is among the best mana fixing at common. |
| Bloodstained Mire | $18.99 | Y | Fetchlands will always be in demand, so fetches are always a good keep and solid speculation. |
| Butcher of the Horde | $0.40 | N | This will require Mardu aggro be playable in Modern and want a four drop. That does not seem likely. |
| Chief of the Edge | $0.19 | Y | The effect is unique and can be good in a casual Warrior deck. |
| Chief of the Scale | $0.18 | Y | The effect is unique and can be good in a casual Warrior deck. |
| Clever Impersonator | $2.57 | Y | This is a card that shows up in a lot of blue Commander decks and is solid card. It will drop to around $2. |
| Crackling Doom | $0.98 | N | There are better removal spells in Modern and other Eternal formats. |
| Crater's Claws | $0.37 | N | Banefire is a lot better and sees almost no play. |
| Deflecting Palm | $0.55 | Y | This has a lot of neat applications and can be great in sideboards. |
| Despise | $0.22 | N | I despise that this card did not shine, but it was always behind Duress and/or Thoughtseize. |
| Dig Through Time | $1.60 | Y | This is arguably worth investing in because there is a chance it might be unbanned one day. |
| Disdainful Stroke | $0.15 | Y | This is a strong two-mana counter in formats without the original Counterspell. |
| Dismal Backwater | $0.15 | Y | This is among the best mana fixing at common. |
| Dragon Throne of Tarkir | $0.28 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Dragon-Style Twins | $0.28 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Duneblast | $0.29 | N | There are better board sweepers. |
| Empty the Pits | $0.73 | N | Cute, but not good. |
| End Hostilities | $0.46 | N | There are better board sweepers. |
| Erase | $0.14 | Y | Good card and could be reprinted easily. |
| Feed the Clan | $0.16 | Y | The best pure life gain spell in Modern. |
| Flooded Strand | $19.67 | Y | Fetchlands will always be in demand, so fetches are always a good keep and solid specluation. |
| Flying Crane Technique | $0.28 | N | Will not ever see play in anything but the most fringe of decks, and this card will not be hard to get for those people. |
| Frontier Bivouac | $0.29 | Y | All the trilands are worth keeping, but not investing in. |
| Ghostfire Blade | $1.26 | Y | This is an interesting card that may see play some day. Keep, but do not invest in. |
| Grim Haruspex | $0.36 | Y | Very interesting card, so keep your eye on it. |
| Hardened Scales | $1.95 | Y | Very interesting card, so keep your eye on it. Has a high chance of seeing play. |
| Heir of the Wilds | $0.19 | N | Solid two mana creature that will be overshadowed by other green two drops. |
| Herald of Anafenza | $0.29 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| High Sentinels of Arashin | $0.29 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Hooded Hydra | $1.05 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Hooting Mandrills | $0.13 | Y | A solid green delve creature. |
| Hordeling Outburst | $0.92 | N | Not that impressive in Modern. |
| Howl of the Horde | $0.29 | N | Interesting, but not enough to be playable. |
| Icy Blast | $0.29 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Ivorytusk Fortress | $0.28 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Jeering Instigator | $0.27 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Jeskai Ascendancy | $0.67 | Y | This has potential to be very powerful. It's worth investing into. |
| Jeskai Charm | $0.25 | N | Most of the Charms are worth keeping. |
| Jungle Hollow | $0.12 | Y | This is among the best mana fixing at common. |
| Kheru Lich Lord | $0.29 | N | No. Just no. |
| Kheru Spellsnatcher | $0.28 | N | Spelljack is a fine card, but not enough to be valuable. |
| Mantis Rider | $0.53 | Y | This could be valuable if Jeskai becomes a thing in Modern. |
| Mardu Ascendancy | $0.34 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Master of Pearls | $0.28 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Meandering Towershell | $0.28 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Mindswipe | $0.33 | N | The effect is unique enough that it is worth keeping, but not investing in. |
| Monastery Swiftspear | $3.82 | Y | This is the best uncommon from a set with a lot of good uncommons. |
| Murderous Cut | $0.47 | Y | The best non-broken delve card. Keep these. |
| Mystic Monastery | $0.46 | Y | All the trilands are worth keeping, but not investing in. |
| Narset, Enlightened Master | $0.85 | Y | The effect is interesting and a "build around me" type. Worth keeping not heavy investing into. |
| Necropolis Fiend | $0.30 | N | No. Just no. |
| Nomad Outpost | $0.40 | Y | All the trilands are worth keeping, but not investing in. |
| Opulent Palace | $0.29 | Y | All the trilands are worth keeping, but not investing in. |
| Pearl Lake Ancient | $0.76 | N | The ability and stats are nice, but getting to seven mana outside of a ramp deck is an achievement in Modern. |
| Polluted Delta | $21.99 | Y | Fetchlands will always be in demand, so fetches are always a good keep and solid speculation. |
| Rakshasa Deathdealer | $0.43 | N | There are better two-drops that are not that demanding to be good. |
| Rakshasa Vizier | $0.29 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Rakshasa's Secret | $0.13 | N | The effect is unique enough that it is worth keeping, but not investing in. |
| Rattleclaw Mystic | $1.04 | N | There are a lot better ramp spells and morphs are not a thing in Modern. |
| Retribution of the Ancients | $0.27 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Ride Down | $0.18 | Y | The effect is unique enough that it is worth keeping, but not investing in. |
| Rugged Highlands | $0.14 | Y | This is among the best mana fixing at common. |
| Sage of the Inward Eye | $0.29 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Sagu Mauler | $0.35 | N | Efficient beaters are not enough to be playable, especially at six mana. |
| Sandsteppe Citadel | $0.71 | y | All the trilands are worth keeping, but not investing in. |
| Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker | $2.91 | N | If a card is too weak in a Standard meta, it is too weak a Modern or Eternal format. |
| Savage Knuckleblade | $0.38 | N | The Temur curse struck this card the hardest and left one of the best three-drops in Khans of Tarkir almost unplayable.. |
| Scoured Barrens | $0.14 | Y | This is among the best mana fixing at common. |
| See the Unwritten | $1.00 | N | Not good enough to see play outside of Commander where those that wan this card will be able to pick it up cheap. |
| Seeker of the Way | $0.32 | Y | Solid card that sees play in Vintage, which means it is playable. |
| Sidisi, Brood Tyrant | $0.87 | N | Interesting but not enough to be playable. |
| Siege Rhino | $2.14 | Y | This is a strong cards and once Modern settles down from the Eldrazi hype, stock up on it. |
| Sorin, Solemn Visitor | $7.74 | N | Solid card, but it has no home because nothing really wants it. |
| Stubborn Denial | $0.42 | Y | One-mana Negates are good. |
| Sultai Ascendancy | $0.29 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Sultai Charm | $0.22 | N | Like most charms, not worth keeping. |
| Surrak Dragonclaw | $0.96 | N | Interesting, but not enough to be playable. |
| Swiftwater Cliffs | $0.15 | Y | This is among the best mana fixing at common. |
| Temur Ascendancy | $0.35 | N | People that want this interesting cards already have it or will not cost them much to get it. |
| Thornwood Falls | $0.14 | Y | This is among the best mana fixing at common. |
| Thousand Winds | $0.28 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Tomb of the Spirit Dragon | $0.27 | Y | This has a very interesting effect and could see play if Modern starts going longer. |
| Trail of Mystery | $0.30 | N | The effect is fine, but not strong enough to make morphs a thing. |
| Tranquil Cove | $0.15 | Y | These are the best mana fixing at common. |
| Trap Essence | $0.28 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Treasure Cruise | $0.26 | N | Might as well keep, maybe Wizards will unban it. |
| Ugin's Nexus | $0.67 | N | Interesting, but not enough to be playable.. |
| Utter End | $1.16 | Y | The effect is unique enough that it is worth keeping, but not investing in. |
| Villainous Wealth | $0.34 | Y | The effect is unique enough that it is worth keeping, but not investing in. |
| Wind-Scarred Crag | $0.14 | Y | This is among the best mana fixing at common. |
| Windswept Heath | $13.94 | Y | Fetchlands will always be in demand, so fetches are always a good keep and solid speculation. |
| Wingmate Roc | $1.94 | N | Strong effect, but not good enough to make a break in to Modern or other formats. |
| Wooded Foothills | $20.12 | Y | Fetchlands will always be in demand, so fetches are always a good keep and solid speculation. |
| Zurgo Helmsmasher | $0.63 | N | This is not smashing into any formats anytime soon. |
Fate Reforged
| Price as of 3/21 |
Keep |
Comment | |
| Alesha, Who Smiles at Death | $0.41 | Y | The effect is unique enough that it is worth keeping, but not investing in. |
| Arashin Cleric | $0.17 | Y | Best life gain can at two mana. Worth holding onto. |
| Arcbond | $0.25 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Archfiend of Depravity | $0.49 | N | Cute card, but too slow to be useful in any deck. |
| Atarka, World Render | $0.53 | N | Not worth keeping or investing. People that want this will get it cheap and it is not worth stocking up. |
| Brutal Hordechief | $1.81 | N | In a fun tribal deck, this could make a splash but it's not worth investing in. |
| Citadel Siege | $0.37 | N | Interesting card, but has no current place at the moment. |
| Cloudform | $0.23 | N | Interesting, but doubtful it will ever see competitive play. |
| Collateral Damage | $0.14 | N | Fine card, but will rarely see competitive play. |
| Crucible of the Spirit Dragon | $0.40 | N | Bad. |
| Crux of Fate | $1.05 | N | It had its chance to shine, and it never could pivot into being a mainstay card. Still a good choice, when you do not have a choice. |
| Daghatar the Adamant | $0.31 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Dark Deal | $0.24 | Y | This is waiting for the right deck to come along. Do not bulk them out. |
| Dragonscale General | $0.32 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Dromoka, the Eternal | $0.35 | N | There is some casual appeal for this, but that is not enough demand to warrant keeping or investing in. |
| Flamerush Rider | $0.30 | N | There are better copy effects, like Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker |
| Flamewake Phoenix | $0.50 | Y | This has an easy recursion clause and could see play in Modern sideboards. |
| Frontier Siege | $0.46 | N | May be it can see play in fringe Enchantress decks, but that is all. |
| Ghastly Conscription | $0.67 | N | Nope, not ever. |
| Gurmag Angler | $0.24 | Y | One of the best commons out of Fate Reforged, and it does see play in Modern. Worth keeping, especially foils. |
| Jeskai Infiltrator | $0.30 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury | $0.66 | Y | This has strong casual demand and could see play in Modern. |
| Mardu Strike Leader | $0.72 | N | Not strong enough to make it into Modern or the Eternal formats. |
| Mastery of the Unseen | $0.42 | N | Morph is interesting, but not enough to be competitive and this card is not going to push it any further than it did in Standard. |
| Mob Rule | $0.29 | Y | Interesting effect, but never gong to see competitive play. |
| Monastery Mentor | $20.90 | Y | This is the second best card in Fate Reforged and sees a fair amount of play. Keep. |
| Monastery Siege | $0.80 | N | Saw fringe play in Standard and that is all it will see. |
| Monk Token | $0.48 | Y | Keep your tokens, and unlike the Kraken token, there is a demand for this card in Modern and Eternal formats. |
| Ojutai, Soul of Winter | $0.34 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Outpost Siege | $0.93 | Y | This is a solid card in some side decks so it could reach a dollar or two in the future. |
| Palace Siege | $0.43 | N | There could be casual demand for this, but that is all and casual demand on a niche market is not worth it. |
| Rally the Ancestors | $1.25 | Y | This card is waiting to be broken in Modern. Keep an eye on it, and investing in it is a fine choice. |
| Sage-Eye Avengers | $0.29 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Scroll of the Masters | $0.31 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Shaman of the Great Hunt | $1.05 | N | The poor card never got to shine due to the Temur curse. |
| Shamanic Revelation | $0.30 | N | This might see some play in some Commander decks, but that is all. |
| Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest | $0.35 | N | Until Tiny Leaders© comes back, this is nothing more than bad bulk. |
| Silumgar, the Drifting Death | $0.59 | N | Six mana is too much for a finisher that does not end games quickly. |
| Soulfire Grand Master | $7.26 | Y | This will take some time, but it will see Modern play eventually. |
| Soulflayer | $0.32 | Y | This card is waiting to be broken, so keep an eye on this card. There is still good in it. |
| Supplant Form | $0.30 | N | This will have some Commander love, but it is so cheap and easily to reprint that it is not worth keeping or investing in. |
| Tasigur, the Golden Fang | $3.42 | Y | This card will go up with time. It one of the best non-broken delve cards. |
| Temporal Trespass | $1.52 | N | Delve cards tend to be either broken or fringe. This is fringe. |
| Temur Battle Rage | $0.49 | Y | This is the best double strike enabling spell printed so far, so it worth keeping. It is doubtful that it will reach a high price, but it can be a solid dollar common. |
| Temur War Shaman | $0.29 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Torrent Elemental | $0.92 | Y | The effect is unique enough that it is worth keeping, but not investing in. |
| Ugin, the Spirit Dragon | $34.93 | Y | This is a Commander card that seems play in the Tron deck as a finisher. Keep, but so not invest. |
| Valorous Stance | $1.03 | N | The effect is solid, but this does not replace Path to Exile at all. |
| Warden of the First Tree | $1.99 | N | This card is a Standard all star but is outclassed by other one-drops like [card]Wild Nacatl/card] |
| Whisperwood Elemental | $0.91 | N | This card is too expensive and does not impact the board enough to be a competitive player again, but it could have some casual appeal. |
| Wild Slash | $1.13 | N | There are much better burn spells in other formats, like Lightning Bolt. |
| Wildcall | $0.33 | N | This is not ever going to see play. Even in Commander. |
| Yasova Dragonclaw | $0.29 | N | This is a fringe card that might see play in some Temur decks, but not enough to think it will ever go up. |
Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged
Market Review
The two sets reforged multiple formats and are among the strongest sets printed. Maybe not as broken as others, but their contributions will not be forgotten anytime soon, both positive and negative. Sealed boxes of Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged will be worth something down the road due to the fetchlands and the the valuable uncommons in the set. They will not reach $200 for a while, but will likely hit that mark after four years or so. The sets provide value at every level, and have a good amount of playable cards at all levels of rarity. Not all rares and mythic rares were slam dunks, but many of them were solid nonetheless. Overall, the sets were successful; they will be missed from Standard, and will still contribute to Modern and the Eternal formats. The market was strong during the reign of Khans block and only took a big hit with the market failure of Zendikar Expeditions.
Notable Cards to Invest In
Bloodstained Mire / Flooded Strand / Polluted Delta / Windswept Heath / Wooded Foothills
These are the premier lands and will always be in demand. Get the blue then red fetches first, then Windswept Heath last as it's the most highly printed due to being in the Magic Origins Clash Pack.
Monastery Swiftspear: This is one of the best red one-drops ever printed, and that means something compared to other red one-drops.
Monastery Mentor: This card sees play in all formats and will only get better with time.
Rally the Ancestors: This is a broken combo deck waiting to happen.
Tasigur, the Golden Fang: This card will go back up once Modern slows down.
Notable Card to Avoid
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon: This will likely drop to around $20 for awhile, until the dust from the next Modern ban list update has settled and the players adjust to the new meta. If Tron becomes the dominant deck, this will go back up. If not, Ugin will continue to decline.
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Posted Mar 24, 2016I am going by what I see as competitive Commander decks, not casual. Casual demand for cards is almost impossible to gauge for me, as there is a lack of way to quantify data. And the cards generally are not powerful enough to make a dent in the competitive Commander, so it not going to be worth much, and are usually prime targets for reprints in Commander products.
My comment may be a little harsh on some, but I stand by that most all but a few are deserved. I am sure I will miss some.
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Posted Mar 24, 2016Thanks. As I said earlier, I am glad people disagree with me, as well as agree with me.
Retribution is a bad card in that it does nothing else on its own, require one other card to be playable, and the effect is lackluster. It was a draw variant, I would mark it as very good, and if it was like an enchantment Umezawa's Jitte, it would be a great card. But Removal in exchange for removing counters is a weak effect when a lot of Creatures are regularly going to be either very big or very wide. It would require a card that 1) needs other cards for a decent effect. 2) Needs opponents to play creatures that are generally around 2-3 toughness to be useful.
Cloudform is a good card in the polymorph deck, it is still in a fringe deck. For an uncommon to be worth something, it needs to be in a Tier 1 or above deck, a four of in a popular deck, or printed in low quantities with a decent demand.
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Posted Mar 24, 2016That is a nice interaction.
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Posted Mar 25, 2016-
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Posted Mar 25, 2016-
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Posted Mar 24, 2016Also, while I agree that Ugin should drop off a little bit over the next month or two, I think he's going to go WAY up in relatively short order (like, within a year or less of rotation). Remember, there are plenty of cards that see little to no competitive play that hold value exceptionally well (classic example: Glimpse the Unthinkable), and planeswalkers in particular are highly-sought casual superstars (freaking Tibalt is still $3 TCG mid!). Ugin is going to be the Holy Grail in this regard (can go in any deck, is a badass dragon, really powerful, only one printing); add onto that its playability in Tron and you're looking at a card that could hit $50 by mid-2017.
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Posted Mar 24, 2016Menmite and Etched Champion saw play in Standard, but I get your point. I made remarks about cards that were not good in Standard but great in other formats, as that is not uncommon. Stony Silence saw little play but was an amazing card in older formats. I call those as I see them. I will make a mental note next Rotation to make that more clear. Thank you.
The reason I go by what is good Standard is an indicator of what is going to be good is because if a card is good Modern or an eternal format, we already know it is good. Monastery Swiftspear and Monastery Mentor both see play in other formats so we do not have to judge whether they were good in Standard to know if they will be good in other formats. When you look at a card like Rally the Ancestors, this card does not see play in Modern yet it could because there was a strong deck in Standard with it. I also look if the cards is cheap enough with a powerful (or interesting) effect that can fit into current decks. Speculating about cards that are not created yet in order to build a deck that makes that card good is beyond the scope of what I am looking to do her.
Ugin has been dropping for the last month (check my articles for proof) and will keep dropping after rotation because Ugin only sees play in Commander and Tron. There are no Tier 2 or better Eternal format that run him as far as I can read. Casual demand generally not enough to influence the price, and most likely people will wait for the rotation to get their Ugins if they want. New Tron players are going to wait until whether Tron is a strong deck after the newest bannings, as there is no idea what exactly will be banned (although there are strong hints). Currently, all builds I could find of Tron had between 0 and 3 copies of Ugin, which I imagine is the result of the Eldrazi Winter, but I do not remember Ugin ever being more than a 3 of. He is awkward on the mana like another posted. Ugin will most likely go down to 20 at the bottom, and then rise back if Tron proves to be a strong deck and colorless creatures are not the dominant creature color. Affinity also makes Ugin weak as well, and ramping into Ugin basically just lightning bolts one of their creatures.
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Posted Mar 23, 2016-
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Posted Mar 23, 2016It is fine to disagree.
Taigur will go up. He will not be a 20.00 rare, most likely a 5 to 10 dollar rare after awhile and depending on how well Grixis plays after the next Ban list.
Ugin will go down because the only deck that plays him us Tron, and Tron players already have theirs. It will take new Tron players to want to get him, and most new Tron players are waiting to see how the deck will fare after the next ban list.