Magic Market Index for January 27, 2016

 

Welcome to the Magic Market Index. This article series documents the price changes of cards in print. This article will track how cards go from release to its time out of Standard, and as long as deemed necessary for non-Standard sets, as well as offer insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. The Magic market is a dangerous place, and this article is here to help guide players and speculators through the murky waters to greater returns. 

 

This article will be updated once a week on Wednesdays. This will give time to let the market adapt to changes in the meta and the market, as well as being late enough in the week that it is not completely unreliable prior to going into the Magic: the Gathering weekend events.

 

Currently, this article series is tracking Khans of Tarkir Block (Khans of Tarkir, Fate Reforged, and Dragons of Tarkir), Magic Origins, and Battle for Zendikar Block (Oath of the Gatewatch, Battle for Zendikar, Zendikar Expeditions).  There are no current plans to track any promo sets or other non-set releases. If it can be opened in a pack, it will be covered. 

 

 

 

A few things about the market before getting to the values and analysis. Sets in Standard follow a standard pattern in terms of value, in that they start out high during the prerelease and the first week or two of its release. Some cards spike during the first Star City Games Open Series, the first tournament that is Standard-legal and showcases several pros' work at breaking the set. Then comes the Pro Tour if it is Standard, which shows the results of the many of the best players in Magic deciding on the best. Both of these tournaments will rise certain cards, and the rest of the set will lower due to three factors. Magic: the Gathering Online set redemptions, Limited play, and product being opened for non-limited play. The market gets flooded and prices go down. This continues until a few weeks after the next set starts this cycle, and then the previous set starts rising in value and continue until the a few weeks before the set starts to rotate when only cards that see play in non-rotating formats will drop in value. This means the best time to invest is after the Pro Tour, but before the next set comes out. The worst times are at the beginning and end of its time in Standard and when the set stops being played in Limited.

 

Another aspect is always invest in dual lands as soon as possible. Having a good mana base will always serve a player better than having the "best" card in the set. Invest in dual lands, then desired cards, and then speculation. Also, when speculating, realize that demand is more important than profit margin. Having 200 copies of a card that spikes is not immediate value, as one has to unload that value. Stores will only buy so many of a card that spikes. Lastly, if a card spikes, that is not a sign that one should immediately buy in. Sometimes the card is a flash in the pan and crashes in value. Look at a card and determine if the card has both potential to be playable and rise. 

 

With that, it is time to discuss the price changes and what to look at. 

 

 

 

 

Zendikar Expeditions

Name   Change for 12/30 to 1/27

Change for

1/13 to 1/20

  Price for 1/27 Price for 1/20 Price for 1/13 Price for 1/06 Price for 12/30    

Set Summary

 

It looks like the Oath of the Gatwatch Expeditions are all tanking as it would be expected on their initial release. None of the cards are used in Standard, and only a few are used in Modern or Legacy, unlike the previous ones released in Battle for Zendikar. 

Scalding Tarn $11.69 $6.60 $327.02 $320.42 $320.00 $312.81 $315.33
Misty Rainforest $20.00 $0.99 $275.00 $275.99 $278.00 $294.08 $255.00
Wasteland - $24.56 $260.44 $285.00 $283.27 - -
Polluted Delta $22.82 $4.95 $260.00 $264.95 $268.58 $267.55 $282.82
Flooded Strand $4.44 $3.06 $215.99 $212.93 $212.87 $210.99 $211.55
Verdant Catacombs $1.35 $5.17 $200.98 $206.15 $203.38 $219.98 $202.33
Eye of Ugin - $40.58 $149.99 $190.57 $190.57 - -
Wooded Foothills $16.96 $0.00 $139.95 $139.95 $139.97 $140.05 $122.99
Bloodstained Mire $10.07 $5.68 $131.64 $125.96 $126.89 $133.49 $141.71
Arid Mesa $4.67 $5.61 $125.00 $119.39 $119.95 $119.99 $120.33
Windswept Heath $11.03 $2.06 $123.47 $125.53 $124.50 $127.00 $134.50
Marsh Flats $13.72 $4.44 $121.94 $117.50 $118.53 $112.70 $108.22
Horizon Canopy - $16.41 $118.11 $134.52 $154.55 - -
Steam Vents $4.61 $5.62 $115.38 $121.00 $135.29 $120.00 $119.99
Ancient Tomb - $25.59 $105.40 $130.99 $109.99 - -
Godless Shrine $13.87 $0.42 $93.53 $93.95 $90.44 $89.35 $79.66
Cascade Bluffs - $21.79 $88.20 $109.99 $103.00 - -
Overgrown Tomb $4.18 $0.02 $87.95 $87.97 $89.97 $87.97 $83.77
Strip Mine - $16.94 $86.98 $103.92 $97.85 - -
Twilight Mire - $26.04 $83.96 $110.00 $94.36 - -
Hallowed Fountain $1.42 $0.45 $80.97 $81.42 $77.00 $80.45 $82.39
Mystic Gate - $13.50 $80.00 $93.50 $95.43 - -
Sunken Ruins - $9.99 $80.00 $89.99 $93.89 - -
Flooded Grove - $17.45 $79.95 $97.40 $97.85 - -
Watery Grave $2.28 $0.27 $79.68 $79.95 $79.99 $79.33 $81.96
Stomping Ground $0.32 $0.36 $78.64 $79.00 $76.20 $72.48 $78.96
Breeding Pool $1.99 $3.30 $76.96 $80.26 $79.99 $80.00 $74.97
Temple Garden $4.95 $4.70 $76.70 $72.00 $72.14 $76.97 $81.65
Blood Crypt $7.21 $0.46 $76.53 $76.99 $71.25 $69.66 $69.32
Sacred Foundry $1.16 $2.11 $75.00 $77.11 $78.19 $76.00 $73.84
Fetid Heath - $14.44 $70.80 $85.24 $90.83 - -
Mana Confluence - $20.00 $67.99 $87.99 - - -
Forbiddened Orchard - $23.00 $64.99 $87.99 - - -
Dust Bowl - $24.67 $63.32 $87.99 $71.47 - -
Fire-Lit Thicket - $15.00 $59.97 $74.97 $71.47 - -
Rugged Prairie - $12.27 $57.72 $69.99 $68.48 - -
Prairie Stream $0.19 $0.11 $54.35 $54.24 $52.71 $55.37 $54.16
Sunken Hollow $3.59 $1.54 $53.40 $54.94 $53.36 $53.44 $56.99
Wooded Bastion - $3.67 $53.32 $56.99 $58.33 - -
Kor Haven - $26.30 $52.69 $78.99 $68.48 - -
Graven Cairns - $19.25 $50.17 $69.42 $61.92 - -
Cinder Glade $1.28 $0.72 $49.97 $49.25 $49.97 $48.68 $48.69
Tectonic Edge - $5.55 $49.44 $54.99 $46.37 - -
Canopy Vista $1.55 $0.69 $47.99 $48.68 $48.42 $47.65 $49.54
Smoldering Marsh $0.57 $0.42 $45.57 $45.99 $45.33 $44.95 $45.00

 

 

Oath of the Gatewatch

Name   Change for 1/13to 1/27

Change for

1/13 to 1/20

  Price for 1/27 Price for 1/20 Price for 1/13 Price for 1/06 Price for 12/30    

Set Summary

 

The set is settling down after its release and the first SCG event. Nothing really innovative came out of it, so there was a not a lot of values shifting, but World Breaker, Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet, and Reflector Mage were the winners of the set. Reflector Mage is a sleeper card and could be an easy $2 uncommon. Goblin Dark-Dwellers has some potential. The card is really good at what it does.  Sylvan Advocate seems to be a safe bet for a good card, which marks the predictions made on this article seem off. 

Kozilek's Return $2.21 $4.49 $17.51 $22.00 $15.30 - -
Nissa, Voice of Zendikar $3.63 $3.97 $15.84 $19.81 $19.47 - -
Kozilek, the Great Distortion $0.05 $3.40 $15.26 $18.66 $15.31 - -
Thought-Knot Seer $5.91 $1.95 $13.16 $15.11 $7.25 - -
World Breaker $7.79 $3.55 $11.38 $7.83 $3.59 - -
Chandra, Flamecaller $2.64 $1.58 $10.20 $11.78 $12.84    
Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet $1.81 $2.87 $9.82 $6.95 $8.01 - -
Mirrorpool $0.56 $1.70 $6.42 $8.12 $6.98 - -
Reality Smasher $0.97 $1.52 $5.89 $7.41 $4.92 - -
Matter Reshaper $2.36 $1.30 $4.76 $6.06 $7.12 - -
Oath of Nissa $1.63 $1.54 $4.72 $6.26 $6.35 - -
Linvala, the Preserver $3.25 $1.89 $4.50 $6.39 $7.75 - -
Goblin Dark-Dwellers $1.69 $1.54 $4.29 $2.75 $2.60 - -
Eldrazi Displacer $1.41 $1.10 $3.84 $4.94 $5.25 - -
Wandering Fumarole $0.13 $0.32 $3.58 $3.26 $3.45 - -
Sylvan Advocate $0.09 $0.66 $3.18 $2.52 $3.09 - -
Hissing Quagmire $0.86 $0.50 $2.49 $2.99 $3.35 - -
Crush of Tentacles - $0.55 $2.38 $2.93 - - -
Sphinx of the Final Word $0.69 $0.44 $2.05 $2.49 $2.74 - -
Sea Gate Wreckage $0.82 $0.51 $2.04 $2.55 $2.86 - -

 

 

Battle for Zendikar

Name   Change for 12/30 to 1/27

Change for

1/13 to 1/20

  Price for 1/27 Price for 1/20 Price for 1/13 Price for 1/06 Price for 12/30    

Set Summary

 

This set is continuing the downwards fall outside of the Eldrazi ramp cards.  Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger is moving cast up the value tree, but his ascension will not peak much higher. Unlike other cards that went high and stayed high, this card is harder to cast at ten mana and is only castable in ramp decks. If ramp decks become one of a very small tournament winning decks, then Ulamog could go up, but it is doubtful if will go up more than $5 more.

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger $13.82 $1.24 $30.27 $29.03 $24.99 $21.06 $16.45
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar $1.81 $0.16 $21.84 $22.00 $22.66 $23.00 $23.65
Oblivion Sower $4.00 $0.14 $8.75 $8.61 $8.75 $7.00 $4.75
Drana, Liberator of Malakir $0.06 $0.04 $7.16 $7.20 $7.20 $7.30 $7.22
Ob Nixilis Reignited $0.27 $0.08 $6.23 $6.31 $6.39 $6.44 $6.50
Kiora, Master of the Depths $0.25 $0.06 $4.49 $4.55 $4.60 $4.64 $4.74
Shambling Vent $0.01 $0.00 $4.14 $4.14 $4.18 $4.19 $4.15
Dragonmaster Outcast $0.42 $0.13 $4.02 $4.15 $4.28 $4.38 $4.44
Sunken Hollow $0.44 $0.15 $3.84 $3.99 $4.13 $4.21 $4.28
Cinder Glade $0.27 $0.13 $3.59 $3.72 $3.75 $3.80 $3.86
Undergrowth Champion $0.25 $0.07 $3.59 $3.66 $3.69 $3.79 $3.84
Canopy Vista $0.42 $0.11 $3.51 $3.62 $3.71 $3.84 $3.93
Prairie Stream $0.52 $0.15 $3.35 $3.50 $3.61 $3.80 $3.87
Smoldering Marsh $0.07 $0.06 $3.02 $3.08 $3.09 $3.11 $3.09
Wasteland Strangler - $0.01 $3.00 $3.01 $2.99 $2.71 -
Void Winnower $0.49 $0.04 $2.99 $2.95 $2.85 $2.62 $2.50
Painful Truths $0.15 $0.12 $2.59 $2.71 $2.73 $2.76 $2.74
Omnath, Locus of Rage $0.11 $0.04 $2.29 $2.25 $2.22 $2.19 $2.18
Part the Waterveil $0.13 $0.01 $2.27 $2.28 $2.28 $2.24 $2.14

 

 

Magic Origins

Name   Change for 12/30 to 1/27

Change for

1/13 to 1/20

  Price for 1/27 Price for 1/20 Price for 1/13 Price for 1/06 Price for 12/30  

Set Summary

 

The set is seeing some upwards movement, which is a positive sign. Pia and Kiran Nalaar are on setting a burning trail and could easily be the top rare in the set. Hopefully they will not surpass their daughter, as parents always want their children to be better than they are. 

Jace, Vryn's Prodigy $0.76 $0.62 $65.00 $64.38 $64.94 $64.32 $64.24
Nissa, Vastwood Seer $2.39 $0.60 $17.55 $18.15 $18.99 $19.26 $19.94
Liliana, Heretical Healer $1.69 $0.62 $16.16 $16.78 $17.02 $17.56 $17.85
Hangarback Walker $1.89 $0.27 $10.21 $10.48 $10.99 $11.75 $12.10
Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh $0.19 $0.07 $6.93 $7.00 $7.05 $6.99 $7.12
Archangel of Tithes $0.15 $0.26 $6.01 $5.75 $5.75 $5.93 $5.86
Abbot of Keral Keep $0.20 $0.04 $5.69 $5.73 $5.75 $5.81 $5.89
Kytheon, Hero of Akros $0.09 $0.00 $4.99 $4.99 $4.99 $4.97 $4.90
Pia and Kiran Nalaar - $0.07 $4.85 $4.78 $2.30 - -
Alhammarret's Archive $0.35 $0.11 $3.34 $3.23 $3.21 $3.04 $2.99
Managorger Hydra $0.04 $0.01 $2.94 $2.93 $2.95 $2.99 $2.98
Languish $0.20 $0.06 $2.65 $2.71 $2.74 $2.84 $2.85
Day's Undoing $0.05 $0.02 $2.50 $2.52 $2.50 $2.48 $2.45
Exquisite Firecraft $0.15 $0.05 $2.46 $2.41 $2.49 $2.54 $2.61
Starfield of Nyx $0.09 $0.11 $2.37 $2.26 $2.29 $2.30 $2.28
Goblin Piledriver $0.23 $0.16 $2.26 $2.10 $2.06 $2.04 $2.03
Pyromancer's Goggles $0.12 $0.11 $2.14 $2.03 $2.00 $2.01 $2.02
Infinite Obliteration - $0.01 $2.03 $2.02 - - -
Sword of the Animist $0.03 $0.00 $2.00 $2.00 $2.01 $2.06 $2.03

 

 

 

Dragons of Tarkir

Name   Change for 12/30 to 1/27

Change for

1/13 to 1/20

  Price for 1/27 Price for 1/20 Price for 1/13 Price for 1/06 Price for 12/30    

Set Summary

 

Kolaghan's Command is now the most expensive card in Dragons of Tarkir. This set has deeply influenced Standard and other formats. The Khans block in general has forever changed Magic, and the changes not being done yet would seem to be a safe wager. 

Kolaghan's Command $3.24 $1.25 $16.25 $15.00 $14.24 $13.27 $13.01
Dragonlord Ojutai $1.04 $0.41 $15.63 $16.04 $16.17 $16.44 $16.67
Atarka's Command $0.35 $0.00 $13.10 $13.10 $13.00 $13.00 $12.75
Deathmist Raptor $3.54 $0.73 $9.98 $10.71 $11.99 $12.82 $13.52
Collected Company $1.51 $1.00 $9.50 $8.50 $8.05 $7.99 $7.99
Den Protector $2.11 $0.50 $9.47 $9.97 $10.45 $10.96 $11.58
Dragonlord Atarka $0.44 $0.16 $9.11 $9.27 $9.45 $9.52 $9.55
Narset Transcendent $0.23 $0.10 $9.00 $8.90 $8.89 $8.79 $8.77
Dragonlord Dromoka $0.28 $0.05 $7.62 $7.67 $7.80 $7.84 $7.90
Sarkhan Unbroken $0.04 $0.02 $6.20 $6.22 $6.25 $6.25 $6.16
Dragonlord Silumgar $0.16 $0.05 $5.15 $5.20 $5.13 $4.99 $4.99
Secure the Wastes $0.17 $0.08 $4.36 $4.44 $4.32 $4.29 $4.19
Dromoka's Command $1.15 $0.30 $4.19 $4.49 $4.68 $4.99 $5.34
Thunderbreak Regent $0.35 $0.16 $4.05 $4.21 $4.35 $4.39 $4.40
Shaman of Forgotten Ways $0.75 $0.13 $3.71 $3.84 $4.00 $4.16 $4.46
Dragonlord Kolaghan $0.02 $0.02 $3.53 $3.51 $3.50 $3.52 $3.51
Zurgo Bellstriker $0.07 $0.01 $3.38 $3.39 $3.45 $3.42 $3.45
Ojutai's Command $0.35 $0.07 $2.49 $2.56 $2.63 $2.75 $2.84
Haven of the Spirit Dragon $0.15 $0.05 $2.48 $2.53 $2.60 $2.61 $2.63
Dragon Whisperer $0.21 $0.06 $2.19 $2.25 $2.32 $2.36 $2.40

 

 

Fate Reforged

Name   Change for 12/30 to 1/27

Change for

1/13 to 1/20

  Price for 1/27 Price for 1/20 Price for 1/13 Price for 1/06 Price for 12/30    

Set Summary

 

The set is seeing a small uptick, especially with Monastery Mentor. This card will continue to be a cross-format all-star. 

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon $0.83 $0.01 $42.75 $42.74 $43.83 $43.85 $43.58
Monastery Mentor $4.35 $0.82 $21.85 $21.03 $19.99 $18.81 $17.50
Soulfire Grand Master $0.47 $0.00 $9.00 $9.00 $9.18 $9.26 $9.47
Tasigur, the Golden Fang $0.06 $0.04 $3.56 $3.52 $3.50 $3.49 $3.50
Warden of the First Tree $0.35 $0.09 $2.82 $2.91 $3.00 $3.06 $3.17
Brutal Hordechief $0.09 $0.05 $2.19 $2.24 $2.29 $2.30 $2.28

 

 

Khans of Tarkir

Name   Change for 12/30 to 1/27

Change for

1/13 to 1/20

  Price for 1/27 Price for 1/20 Price for 1/13 Price for 1/06 Price for 12/30    

Set Summary

 

The fetchlands look like they have settled around the $20 mark aside from Windswept Heath. These values should remain about the same until shortly after Shadows over Innistrad releases, which should drop them only a few dollars. Monastery Swiftspear continues to go up, and will definitely go up if the U/R Delver deck has a good performance at Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch.

Polluted Delta $0.90 $0.22 $20.52 $20.74 $20.99 $21.06 $21.42
Flooded Strand $0.07 $0.00 $19.48 $19.48 $19.36 $19.50 $19.55
Bloodstained Mire $0.22 $0.03 $19.20 $19.17 $18.99 $18.99 $18.98
Wooded Foothills $0.64 $0.32 $19.15 $19.47 $19.85 $19.83 $19.79
Windswept Heath $0.00 $0.05 $12.99 $12.94 $13.00 $12.99 $12.99
Sorin, Solemn Visitor $0.01 $0.02 $8.08 $8.06 $8.00 $8.07 $8.07
Anafenza, the Foremost $0.56 $0.03 $4.80 $4.83 $4.99 $5.19 $5.36
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker $0.30 $0.10 $3.22 $3.32 $3.44 $3.32 $3.52
Monastery Swiftspear $0.29 $0.23 $2.84 $2.61 $2.54 $2.54 $2.55
Wingmate Roc $0.85 $0.14 $2.70 $2.84 $3.09 $3.50 $3.55
Siege Rhino $0.21 $0.02 $2.34 $2.36 $2.36 $2.49 $2.55
Clever Impersonator $0.01 $0.01 $2.24 $2.25 $2.25 $2.25 $2.25
Dig Through Time $0.35 $0.12 $2.19 $2.31 $2.44 $2.44 $2.54

 


 

Overall Summary

 

So the first Standard event came and went, all that was learned is the welcome to the new Standard, same as the last Standard. U/R "Delver" is the only really new deck, and that is just a reinvention of an older format's deck. The Eldrazi Ramp is an interesting deck and has room to grow. Once the right pairing is found with green, or if one is needed, then that deck and its cards will take off further. Stock up on the core of the deck, like the ramp spells. Oath of the Gatewatch is making a little splash, just like our little cute Kraken Token in her bathtub. The next event will really tell since there is no Pro Tour to showcase this set. Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch will be Modern and Limited.

 

 

 

Cards to Watch

 

Hallowed Moonlight: 0.85.  This card is being used a lot more to combat Four Color Rally, which is one of the better decks of the format  It could easily got to a $2-3 dollar card.

Painful Truths: This card will become the premier draw spell once Khans of Tarkir rotates out. 

Monastery Swiftspear: If the U/R Delver deck makes a good showing at the Pro Tour, this card will become a $5 uncommon. Same with Stormchaser Mage moving up in value if it does well.

 

 

Cards to Avoid

 

Any of the higher end Oath of the Gatewatch cards, as they are at their highest point and falling.

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