Magic Market Index for November 18, 2015

 

Welcome to the Magic Market Index. This article series documents the price changes of cards in print. This article will track how cards go from release to its time out of Standard, and as long as deemed necessary for non-Standard sets, as well as offer insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. The Magic market is a dangerous place, and this article is here to help guide players and speculators through the murky waters to greater returns. 

 

This article will be updated once a week on Wednesdays. This will give time to let the market adapt to changes in the meta and the market, as well as being late enough in the week that it is not completely unreliable prior to going into the Magic: the Gathering weekend events.

 

Currently, this article series is tracking Khans of Tarkir Block (Khans of Tarkir, Fate Reforged, and Dragons of Tarkir), Magic Origins, and Battle for Zendikar Block (Battle for Zendikar, Zendikar Expeditions).  There are no current plans to track any promo sets or other non-set releases. If it can be opened in a pack, it will be covered. 

 

 

 

A few things about the market before getting to the values and analysis. Sets in Standard follow a standard pattern in terms of value, in that they start out high during the prerelease and the first week or two of its release. Some cards spike during the first Star City Games Open Series, the first tournament that is Standard-legal and showcases several pros' work at breaking the set. Then comes the Pro Tour if it is Standard, which shows the results of the many of the best players in Magic deciding on the best. Both of these tournaments will rise certain cards, and the rest of the set will lower due to three factors. Magic: the Gathering Online set redemptions, Limited play, and product being opened for non-limited play. The market gets flooded and prices go down. This continues until a few weeks after the next set starts this cycle, and then the previous set starts rising in value and continue until the a few weeks before the set starts to rotate when only cards that see play in non-rotating formats will drop in value. This means the best time to invest is after the Pro Tour, but before the next set comes out. The worst times are at the beginning and end of its time in Standard and when the set stops being played in Limited.

 

Another aspect is always invest in dual lands as soon as possible. Having a good manabase will always serve a player better than having the "best" card in the set. Invest in dual lands, then desired cards, and then speculation. Also, when speculating, realize that demand is more important than profit margin. Having 200 copies of a card that spikes is not immediate value, as one has to unload that value. Stores will only buy so many of a card that spikes. Lastly, if a card spikes, that is not a sign that one should immediately buy in. Sometimes the card is a flash in the pan and crashes in value. Look at a card and determine if the card has both potential to be playable and rise. 

 

With that, it is time to discuss the price changes and what to look at. 

 

 

 

Battle for Zendikar

Name  

Change for   10/21

to

11/18

Change for 11/11

to

11/18

  Price for 11/18 Price for 11/11 Price for 11/04 Price for 10/28 Price for 10/21  

Set Summary

 

Only one card showed any positive growth, and that card is Ulamog. Usually there is a few cards that go up, but since the main deck winning is Abzan, which only really uses lands from the new set, it is not too surprising. 

 
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar $7.51 $2.24 $33.52 $35.76 $37.22 $39.99 $41.03
Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger $0.49 $0.26 $14.50 $14.24 $13.92 $13.34 $14.99
Drana, Liberator of Malakir $5.45 $0.64 $9.94 $10.58 $12.06 $13.34 $15.39
Ob Nixilis Reignited $4.48 $0.51 $8.49 $9.00 $9.90 $10.94 $12.97
Dragonmaster Outcast $0.76 $0.10 $5.95 $6.05 $6.42 $6.65 $6.71
Kiora, Master of the Depths $3.18 $0.31 $5.85 $6.16 $6.83 $7.69 $9.03
Sunken Hollow $2.38 $0.52 $5.75 $6.27 $7.00 $7.57 $8.13
Undergrowth Champion $4.51 $0.53 $5.59 $6.12 $6.94 $7.99 $10.10
Oblivion Sower $1.46 $0.28 $5.49 $5.77 $5.99 $6.50 $6.95
Prairie Stream $2.07 $0.33 $5.42 $5.75 $6.16 $6.76 $7.49
Canopy Vista $1.88 $0.31 $5.12 $5.43 $5.89 $6.45 $7.00
Cinder Glade $1.86 $0.32 $5.01 $5.33 $5.79 $6.23 $6.87
Shambling Vent $1.54 $0.33 $5.00 $5.33 $5.70 $6.01 $6.54
Smoldering Marsh $1.37 $0.28 $4.04 $4.32 $4.50 $4.95 $5.41
Void Winnower $0.87 $0.03 $2.56 $2.59 $2.79 $3.00 $3.43
Omnath, Locus of Rage $0.94 $0.18 $2.55 $2.73 $2.83 $3.02 $3.49
Quarantine Field $0.81 $0.09 $2.41 $2.50 $2.58 $2.84 $3.22
Ruinous Path $1.94 $0.27 $2.38 $2.65 $3.02 $3.56 $4.32
Radiant Flames $0.80 $0.21 $2.29 $2.50 $2.75 $3.00 $3.09
Lumbering Falls $1.08 $0.12 $2.14 $2.26 $2.51 $2.79 $3.22
Greenwarden of Murasa $1.36 $0.16 $2.13 $2.29 $2.53 $2.81 $3.49

 

 

Zendikar Expeditions

Name  

Change for   10/21

to

11/18

Change for 11/11

to

11/18

  Price for 11/18 Price for 11/11 Price for 11/04 Price for 10/28 Price for 10/21  

Set Summary

 

As the values of these cards goes up, it should not mean that people will open more packs for them. 

Scalding Tarn $14.89 $14.37 $254.37 $240.00 $228.59 $227.83 $239.48
Polluted Delta $2.83 $2.25 $221.61 $219.36 $210.35 $204.60 $224.44
Misty Rainforest $0.00 $0.46 $219.48 $219.94 $214.24 $201.87 $219.48
Flooded Strand $26.10 $0.00 $183.83 $183.83 $183.96 $188.44 $209.93
Verdant Catacombs $14.36 $1.90 $164.36 $162.46 $153.88 $150.05 $150.00
Bloodstained Mire $3.18 $0.58 $114.42 $115.00 $110.60 $109.99 $111.24
Arid Mesa $2.95 $3.64 $104.97 $108.61 $105.65 $101.44 $107.92
Windswept Heath $0.01 $0.21 $99.99 $100.20 $98.74 $99.24 $100.00
Steam Vents $9.09 $0.39 $99.90 $99.51 $99.97 $100.44 $108.99
Wooded Foothills $0.03 $1.99 $99.71 $97.72 $94.67 $94.49 $99.74
Marsh Flats $1.72 $2.47 $98.27 $95.80 $97.69 $100.00 $99.99
Hallowed Fountain $6.08 $0.74 $75.53 $76.27 $77.87 $79.23 $81.61
Overgrown Tomb $1.82 $0.17 $72.17 $72.00 $69.96 $73.00 $73.99
Breeding Pool $6.52 $1.47 $71.97 $73.44 $73.14 $74.53 $78.49
Stomping Ground $3.39 $0.37 $71.61 $71.24 $71.00 $72.87 $75.00
Watery Grave $6.40 $2.44 $71.54 $73.98 $74.99 $75.10 $77.94
Godless Shrine $3.37 $0.04 $69.99 $69.95 $67.86 $70.50 $73.36
Sacred Foundry $5.15 $1.05 $64.80 $63.75 $65.70 $66.28 $69.95
Blood Crypt $2.53 $2.64 $63.77 $61.13 $59.91 $59.76 $61.24
Temple Garden $0.69 $1.47 $59.44 $57.97 $57.00 $56.99 $58.75
Sunken Hollow $1.82 $0.88 $59.05 $59.93 $59.54 $54.99 $57.23
Prairie Stream $2.82 $0.34 $58.06 $58.40 $58.89 $58.89 $55.24
Canopy Vista $0.46 $0.66 $49.50 $48.84 $48.96 $49.93 $49.96
Cinder Glade $0.01 $3.42 $46.41 $42.99 $45.00 $44.94 $46.40
Smoldering Marsh $0.52 $0.53 $45.48 $44.95 $44.95 $44.98 $44.96

 

 

Magic Origins

Name  

Change for   10/21

to

11/18

Change for 11/11

to 11/18

  Price for 11/18 Price for 11/11 Price for 11/04 Price for 10/28 Price for 10/21  

Set Summary

 

Jace is really cooling down, along with the rest of the set. 

Jace, Vryn's Prodigy $7.52 $2.53 $67.46 $69.99 $73.96 $73.15 $74.98
Nissa, Vastwood Seer $0.85 $0.51 $24.45 $24.96 $25.94 $26.02 $25.30
Liliana, Heretical Healer $2.16 $1.16 $22.82 $23.98 $24.97 $25.18 $24.98
Hangarback Walker $0.66 $0.02 $14.07 $14.05 $14.31 $14.58 $14.73
Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh $0.34 $0.05 $7.89 $7.94 $8.00 $8.08 $8.23
Abbot of Keral Keep $0.42 $0.22 $7.07 $7.29 $7.48 $7.50 $7.49
Archangel of Tithes $0.50 $0.02 $6.23 $6.25 $6.45 $6.47 $6.73
Kytheon, Hero of Akros $1.03 $0.26 $5.55 $5.81 $5.94 $6.13 $6.58
Exquisite Firecraft $1.21 $0.25 $4.34 $4.59 $4.99 $5.25 $5.55
Languish $0.30 $0.11 $3.69 $3.80 $3.89 $3.96 $3.99
Managorger Hydra $0.06 $0.03 $3.19 $3.22 $3.25 $3.29 $3.25
Alhammarret's Archive $0.26 $0.01 $2.99 $3.00 $3.03 $3.15 $3.25
Day's Undoing $0.65 $0.09 $2.86 $2.95 $3.10 $3.34 $3.51
Sword of the Animist $0.36 $0.10 $2.59 $2.69 $2.76 $2.87 $2.95
Goblin Piledriver $0.73 $0.13 $2.50 $2.63 $2.83 $2.99 $3.23
Starfield of Nyx $0.36 $0.04 $2.49 $2.53 $2.62 $2.66 $2.85
Pyromancer's Goggles $0.49 $0.06 $2.33 $2.39 $2.49 $2.59 $2.82
Demonic Pact $0.53 $0.05 $2.21 $2.26 $2.49 $2.60 $2.74

 

 

Dragons of Tarkir

Name  

Change for   10/21

to

11/18

Change for 11/11

to

11/18

  Price for 11/18 Price for 11/11 Price for 11/04 Price for 10/28 Price for 10/21  

Set Summary

 

Secure the Wastes is going up, no doubt due to the number of token decks doing well. 

Dragonlord Ojutai $5.38 $2.05 $22.75 $24.80 $26.20 $27.50 $28.13
Deathmist Raptor $2.28 $0.83 $20.76 $21.59 $22.36 $22.83 $23.04
Atarka's Command $1.26 $0.56 $14.38 $14.94 $15.35 $15.59 $15.64
Den Protector $1.91 $0.79 $14.09 $14.88 $15.82 $16.19 $16.00
Kolaghan's Command $0.04 $0.08 $12.45 $12.53 $12.50 $12.71 $12.49
Dragonlord Atarka $0.11 $0.01 $10.71 $10.72 $9.47 $9.26 $10.82
Narset Transcendent $0.33 $0.11 $9.33 $9.44 $10.79 $10.81 $9.00
Dragonlord Dromoka $0.26 $0.04 $8.96 $9.00 $9.10 $9.19 $9.22
Collected Company $0.78 $0.08 $8.00 $8.08 $8.00 $8.13 $8.78
Dromoka's Command $0.84 $0.32 $7.15 $7.47 $7.72 $7.94 $7.99
Shaman of Forgotten Ways $1.01 $0.49 $7.09 $7.58 $7.98 $8.05 $8.10
Sarkhan Unbroken $0.32 $0.12 $6.82 $6.94 $6.99 $7.00 $7.14
Thunderbreak Regent $0.56 $0.28 $5.67 $5.95 $6.13 $6.29 $6.23
Dragonlord Silumgar $0.25 $0.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.12 $5.13 $5.25
Secure the Wastes $1.37 $0.11 $4.39 $4.28 $4.11 $3.87 $3.02
Zurgo Bellstriker $0.15 $0.13 $4.34 $4.47 $4.49 $4.59 $4.49
Ojutai's Command $0.46 $0.18 $4.20 $4.38 $4.49 $4.57 $4.66
Dragonlord Kolaghan $0.04 $0.01 $3.72 $3.71 $3.77 $3.80 $3.76
Haven of the Spirit Dragon $0.58 $0.15 $3.10 $3.25 $3.43 $3.51 $3.68
Dragon Whisperer $0.39 $0.06 $2.93 $2.99 $3.00 $3.18 $3.32
Hidden Dragonslayer $0.26 $0.23 $2.57 $2.80 $3.00 $3.00 $2.83
Silkwrap - $0.10 $2.25 $2.35 $2.25 - -
Descent of Dragons $0.10 $0.02 $2.05 $2.07 $2.09 $2.09 $2.15

 

 

Fate Reforged

Name  

Change for   10/21

to

11/18

Change for 11/11

to

11/18

  Price for 11/18 Price for 11/11 Price for 11/04 Price for 10/28 Price for 10/21  

Set Summary

 

Ugin is now the second most expensive card in Standard. It is not worth buying a box for this lottery. 

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon $14.05 $6.29 $42.00 $35.71 $30.83 $28.31 $27.95
Monastery Mentor $0.01 $0.01 $16.44 $16.43 $16.61 $16.60 $16.43
Soulfire Grand Master $0.00 $0.28 $10.99 $11.27 $11.50 $11.49 $10.99
Tasigur, the Golden Fang $0.68 $0.11 $3.88 $3.99 $3.99 $4.10 $4.56
Warden of the First Tree $0.28 $0.04 $3.67 $3.71 $3.74 $2.98 $3.39
Wild Slash $0.09 $0.05 $2.53 $2.58 $2.75 $2.79 $2.44
Brutal Hordechief $0.04 $0.00 $2.50 $2.50 $2.50 $2.49 $2.46
Whisperwood Elemental $1.64 $0.21 $2.13 $2.34 $2.73 $3.80 $3.77

 

 

Khans of Tarkir

Name  

Change for   10/21

to

11/18

Change for 11/11

to

11/18

  Price for 11/18 Price for 11/11 Price for 11/04 Price for 10/28 Price for 10/21  

Set Summary

 

Everything in the set went down, which is more an indication of the overall devaluing of Standard. 

Polluted Delta $1.82 $0.61 $24.69 $25.30 $25.92 $26.47 $26.51
Flooded Strand $1.18 $0.08 $22.93 $23.01 $23.90 $24.00 $24.11
Wooded Foothills $1.15 $0.20 $22.80 $23.00 $23.81 $23.99 $23.95
Bloodstained Mire $0.04 $0.17 $21.00 $21.17 $21.37 $21.95 $21.04
Windswept Heath $0.04 $0.07 $13.99 $14.06 $14.16 $14.25 $14.03
Sorin, Solemn Visitor $0.24 $0.40 $9.53 $9.93 $9.92 $9.69 $9.29
Anafenza, the Foremost $0.65 $0.09 $7.89 $7.98 $8.25 $8.52 $8.54
Wingmate Roc $1.11 $0.27 $5.86 $6.13 $6.29 $6.42 $6.97
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker $0.64 $0.17 $4.95 $5.12 $5.24 $5.48 $5.59
Dig Through Time $0.87 $0.25 $4.22 $4.47 $4.72 $4.91 $5.09
Siege Rhino $0.49 $0.14 $3.44 $3.58 $3.71 $3.80 $3.93
See the Unwritten $2.21 $0.35 $3.29 $3.64 $4.22 $4.88 $5.50
Monastery Swiftspear $0.41 $0.14 $3.19 $3.33 $3.46 $3.52 $3.60
Hardened Scales $1.84 $0.37 $3.08 $3.45 $3.99 $4.18 $4.92
Crackling Doom $0.71 $0.12 $2.88 $3.00 $3.29 $3.48 $3.59
Bloodsoaked Champion $0.47 $0.16 $2.79 $2.95 $3.12 $3.13 $3.26
Clever Impersonator $0.18 $0.02 $2.40 $2.42 $2.45 $2.50 $2.58
Rattleclaw Mystic $0.57 $0.13 $2.27 $2.40 $2.60 $2.70 $2.84
Mantis Rider $0.76 $0.24 $2.25 $2.49 $2.70 $2.87 $3.01

 


 

Overall Summary

 

Okay,, the Standard market is in a bad state.  Outside of the green Eldrazi Ramp deck and the black-based Aristocrats deck, there has not been a major shift in the meta. The dominant decks of last Standard are the dominate deck of new standard in Red Aggro, Esper Dragons, Abzan, and (Dark) Jeskai. In these decks, there is little that changed outside the mana base. Coupled with the Zendikar Expeditions gimmick, this has produced one of the worst Magic markets. On the surface, with six different tournament winning decks, this should be a good diverse market, but instead it is full of a bunch of low value staples, which is not entirely bad for players, and very expensive staples, which is. This is mostly due to the low power of Battle for Zendikar and the sheer volume of it opened. Oath of the Gatewatch is going to need to be full of good cards at every level to raise the value of the market. 

 

 

Cards to Watch

 

Ghostfire Blade (1.31): There could be some interesting cards in Oath of the Gatewatch that will play with this card. 

 

 

Cards to Avoid

 

Anafenza, the Foremost (7.89): This card is strong, but it will not be good outside of Standard.  Get it only if there is a desire to play Abzan in Standard. 

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