The Magic Market Index for October 14, 2015

 

Welcome to the Magic Market Index. This article series documents the price changes of cards in print. This article will track how cards go from release to its time out of Standard, and as long as deemed necessary for non-Standard sets, as well as offer insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. The Magic market is a dangerous place, and this article is here to help guide players and speculators through the murky waters to greater returns. 

 

This article will be updated once a week on Wednesdays. This will give time to let the market adapt to changes in the meta and the market, as well as being late enough in the week that it is not completely unreliable prior to going into the Magic: the Gathering weekend events.

 

Currently, this article series is tracking Khans of Tarkir Block (Khans of Tarkir, Fate Reforged, and Dragons of Tarkir), Magic Origins, and Battle for Zendikar Block (Battle for Zendikar).  There are no current plans to track any promo sets or other non-set releases. If it can be opened in a pack, it will be covered. 

 

 

 

A few things about the market before getting to the values and analysis. Sets in Standard follow a standard pattern in terms of value, in that they start out high during the prerelease and the first week or two of its release. Some cards spike during the first Star City Games Invitational, the first tournament that is Standard-legal and showcases several pros' work at breaking the set. Then comes the Pro Tour if it is Standard, which shows the results of the many of the best players in Magic deciding on the best. Both of these tournaments will rise certain cards, and the rest of the set will lower due to three factors. Magic: the Gathering Online set redemptions, Limited play, and product being opened for non-limited play. The market gets flooded and prices go down. This continues until a few weeks after the next set starts this cycle, and then the previous set starts rising in value and continue until the a few weeks before the set starts to rotate when only cards that see plany in non-rotating formats will drop in value. This means the best time to invest is after the Pro Tour, but before the next set comes out. The worst times are at the beginning and end of its time in Standard and when the set stops being played in Limited.

 

Another aspect is always invest in dual lands as soon as possible. Having a good manabase will always serve a player better than having the "best" card in the set. Invest in dual lands, then desired cards, and then speculation. Also, when speculating, realize that demand is more important than profit margin. Having 200 copies of a card that spikes is not immediate value, as one has to unload that value. Stores will only buy so many of a card that spikes. Lastly, if a card spikes, that is not a sign that one should immediately buy in. Sometimes the card is a flash in the pan and crashes in value. Look at a card and determine if the card has both potential to be playable and rise. 

 

With that, it is time to discuss the price changes and what to look at. 

 

 

Battle for Zendikar

Name  

Change for

9/21 - 10/14

Change for

10/7 - 10/14

  Price for 10/14 Price for 10/7 Price for 9/30 Price for 9/25 Price for 9/21    

Set Summary

 

The set is going down as expected, but will spike on the cards that see play in the Pro Tour. Gideon will eventually go down, but it will not go down anytime soon. It will not be another Jace, Vryn's Prodigy.

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar $9.01 $1.00 $36.00 $35.00 $36.99 $34.95 $26.99
Drana, Liberator of Malakir $6.00 $1.60 $17.99 $19.59 $19.93 $11.49 $11.99
Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger $5.95 $2.74 $15.99 $18.73 $20.30 $20.99 $21.94
Ob Nixilis Reignited $4.76 $2.02 $14.98 $17.00 $18.75 $19.58 $19.74
Undergrowth Champion $7.01 $4.05 $12.73 $16.78 $17.92 $18.97 $19.74
Kiora, Master of the Depths $6.70 $3.92 $11.00 $14.92 $16.09 $16.14 $17.70
Sunken Hollow $1.99 $0.99 $8.76 $9.75 $10.90 $10.74 $10.75
Prairie Stream $1.57 $0.94 $8.06 $9.00 $9.98 $9.86 $9.63
Canopy Vista $1.75 $1.01 $7.98 $8.99 $9.98 $9.93 $9.73
Cinder Glade $0.70 $0.46 $7.29 $7.75 $8.27 $7.99 $7.99
Shambling Vent $1.68 $0.58 $6.65 $7.23 $7.49 $5.50 $4.97
Smoldering Marsh $0.79 $0.75 $6.00 $6.75 $6.94 $6.49 $6.79
Oblivion Sower $0.94 $0.48 $5.92 $5.44 $5.39 $4.94 $4.98
Bring to Light $2.42 $1.48 $5.12 $6.60 $7.70 $7.93 $2.70
Ruinous Path $1.51 $1.88 $5.11 $6.99 $8.49 $7.84 $6.62
Dragonmaster Outcast $0.92 $0.60 $5.00 $4.40 $4.29 $3.99 $4.08
Sire of Stagnation $7.53 $1.69 $4.30 $5.99 $7.67 $8.49 $11.83
Greenwarden of Murasa $2.69 $1.35 $4.25 $5.60 $6.43 $6.58 $6.94
Omnath, Locus of Rage $2.34 $1.13 $4.12 $5.25 $5.84 $5.99 $6.46
Lumbering Falls $1.09 $0.89 $3.90 $4.79 $5.29 $5.34 $4.99
Void Winnower $1.04 $0.73 $3.75 $4.48 $4.94 $4.71 $4.79
Quarantine Field $0.59 $0.80 $3.65 $4.45 $4.98 $4.98 $4.24
Scatter to the Winds $0.56 $0.03 $3.34 $3.37 $3.19 $2.79 $2.78
Radiant Flames - $0.13 $2.58 $2.45 $2.92 $2.64 -
Woodland Wanderer $0.99 $1.00 $2.57 $3.57 $3.99 $3.70 $3.56
Fathom Feeder $1.50 $0.87 $2.47 $3.34 $3.98 $4.27 $3.97
Beastcaller Savant $0.84 $0.49 $2.44 $2.93 $2.99 $2.99 $3.28
From Beyond $0.04 $0.25 $2.25 $2.50 $2.89 $2.49 $2.29
Zada, Hedron Grinder $1.18 $0.87 $2.13 $3.00 $3.29 $3.24 $3.31

 

 

Zendikar Expeditions

Name  

Change for

9/21 - 10/14

Change for

10/7 - 10/14

  Price for 10/14 Price for 10/7 Price for 9/30 Price for 9/25 Price for 9/21    

Set Summary

 

Most of the Expeditions are a lot lower than projected when they first came out. The fetchlands are what you want to pull, preferably a blue one. They are not currently worth opening a box for. 

Scalding Tarn - - $250.40 - - - -
Polluted Delta - - $229.99 - - - -
Misty Rainforest - - $224.99 - - - -
Flooded Strand - - $214.99 - - - -
Verdant Catacombs - - $159.72 - - - -
Arid Mesa - - $118.99 - - - -
Steam Vents - - $114.40 - - - -
Bloodstained Mire - - $113.21 - - - -
Marsh Flats - - $104.95 - - - -
Windswept Heath - - $103.99 - - - -
Wooded Foothills - - $99.85 - - - -
Hallowed Fountain - - $85.99 - - - -
Breeding Pool - - $79.96 - - - -
Watery Grave - - $79.95 - - - -
Stomping Ground - - $79.49 - - - -
Overgrown Tomb - - $77.22 - - - -
Godless Shrine - - $74.99 - - - -
Sacred Foundry - - $73.97 - - - -
Blood Crypt - - $64.96 - - - -
Temple Garden - - $61.00 - - - -
Prairie Stream - - $55.00 - - - -
Sunken Hollow - - $52.01 - - - -
Canopy Vista - - $49.77 - - - -
Cinder Glade - - $46.67 - - - -
Smoldering Marsh - - $45.01 - - - -

 

 

Magic Origins

Name  

Change for

9/21 - 10/14

Change for

10/7 - 10/14

  Price for 10/14 Price for 10/7 Price for 9/30 Price for 9/25 Price for 9/21    

Set Summary

 

The set is lowering still and will for awhile. Jace, Vryn's Prodigy is probably going to keep going up for a while, and will come down once a better planswalker comes along. This makes up for the middling value of his Living Guildpact incarnation.

Jace, Vryn's Prodigy $28.65 $3.61 $73.60 $69.99 $49.95 $48.57 $44.95
Nissa, Vastwood Seer $0.27 $0.49 $24.22 $23.73 $23.70 $24.24 $24.49
Liliana, Heretical Healer $1.96 $0.03 $16.50 $16.47 $17.07 $17.63 $18.46
Hangarback Walker $3.64 $1.54 $14.25 $15.79 $16.39 $17.53 $17.89
Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh $0.68 $0.21 $8.00 $8.21 $8.28 $8.42 $8.68
Abbot of Keral Keep $0.15 $0.26 $7.25 $6.99 $6.95 $7.00 $7.10
Kytheon, Hero of Akros $1.47 $0.81 $7.02 $7.83 $8.00 $8.25 $8.49
Archangel of Tithes $1.24 $0.34 $6.65 $6.99 $7.29 $7.56 $7.89
Exquisite Firecraft $1.24 $0.20 $5.82 $6.02 $6.34 $6.66 $7.06
Languish $0.23 $0.01 $4.05 $4.04 $4.07 $4.17 $4.28
Day's Undoing $1.32 $0.37 $3.79 $4.16 $4.50 $4.83 $5.11
Goblin Piledriver $0.93 $0.33 $3.43 $3.76 $3.99 $4.16 $4.36
Alhammarret's Archive $0.23 $0.08 $3.27 $3.35 $3.45 $3.45 $3.50
Starfield of Nyx $0.87 $0.30 $3.12 $3.42 $3.65 $3.84 $3.99
Pyromancer's Goggles $0.65 $0.27 $3.10 $3.37 $3.50 $3.65 $3.75
Managorger Hydra $0.60 $0.29 $3.04 $2.75 $2.60 $2.49 $2.44
Sword of the Animist $0.14 $0.00 $2.99 $2.99 $2.99 $2.93 $2.85
Demonic Pact $1.02 $0.32 $2.93 $3.25 $3.50 $3.80 $3.95
Woodland Bellower $0.72 $0.34 $2.87 $3.21 $3.32 $3.49 $3.59
Animist's Awakening $0.40 $0.24 $2.49 $2.73 $2.84 $2.88 $2.89
Evolutionary Leap $1.00 $0.48 $2.00 $2.48 $2.79 $2.92 $3.00

 

 

Dragons of Tarkir

Name  

Change for

9/21 - 10/14

Change for

10/7 - 10/14

  Price for 10/14 Price for 10/7 Price for 9/30 Price for 9/25 Price for 9/21    

Set Summary

 

This set is going up in value and is almost worth opening a box. It is a toss-up between this set, Khans, or Battle for Zendikar. Khans is probably best, and Battle for Zendikar is the best for flipping. The sudden spike in Dragonlord Ojutai is interesting. U/W/x decks seem to doing well and should expect to see all U/W cards increasing.

Dragonlord Ojutai $15.55 $12.74 $29.49 $16.75 $15.19 $14.49 $13.94
Deathmist Raptor $0.31 $1.00 $21.98 $20.98 $21.16 $21.44 $21.67
Den Protecter $6.63 $5.53 $15.69 $10.16 $9.48 $9.11 $9.06
Atarka's Command $9.18 $0.89 $14.88 $13.99 $6.73 $5.99 $5.70
Kolaghan's Command $1.04 $0.66 $11.07 $10.41 $10.43 $10.17 $10.03
Dragonlord Atarka $0.21 $0.18 $10.21 $10.03 $10.01 $10.00 $10.00
Shaman of Forgotten Ways $0.34 $0.24 $8.99 $8.75 $8.79 $8.54 $8.65
Narset Transcendent $0.17 $0.13 $8.67 $8.54 $8.50 $8.50 $8.50
Dragonlord Dromoka $1.38 $0.88 $8.38 $7.50 $7.17 $7.14 $7.00
Collected Company $0.25 $0.03 $8.00 $8.03 $8.07 $8.13 $8.25
Dromoka's Command $4.08 $2.92 $7.25 $4.33 $3.38 $3.25 $3.17
Sarkhan Unbroken $0.00 $0.11 $7.11 $7.00 $7.07 $7.12 $7.11
Thunderbreak Regent $0.64 $0.36 $5.35 $4.99 $4.83 $4.74 $4.71
Dragonlord Silumgar $0.02 $0.04 $5.19 $5.15 $5.15 $5.14 $5.17
Haven of the Spirit Dragon $0.22 $0.08 $3.70 $3.62 $3.50 $3.49 $3.48
Zurgo Bellstriker $1.27 $1.13 $3.67 $2.54 $2.45 $2.40 $2.40
Dragonlord Kolaghan $0.02 $0.06 $3.57 $3.51 $3.52 $3.56 $3.59
Ojutai's Command $1.18 $0.53 $3.37 $2.84 $2.48 $2.22 $2.19
Dragon Whisperer $0.44 $0.09 $3.25 $3.16 $3.01 $2.91 $2.81
Secure the Wastes $0.13 $0.10 $2.59 $2.49 $2.46 $2.47 $2.46
Descent of Dragons $0.05 $0.01 $2.15 $2.16 $2.14 $2.10 $2.10

 

 

Fate Reforged

Name  

Change for

9/21 - 10/14

Change for

10/7 - 10/14

  Price for 10/14 Price for 10/7 Price for 9/30 Price for 9/25 Price for 9/21  

Set Summary

 

This set is suffering from two things. Its best cards are either in other sets or have been reprinted in supplementary products. The top three cards are the only reasons this set has value. Get Soulfire Grand Masters if they are needed.

 
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon $1.19 $0.93 $27.32 $26.39 $25.93 $26.21 $26.13
Monastery Mentor $0.08 $0.31 $16.15 $16.46 $15.99 $16.04 $16.07
Soulfire Grand Master $0.29 $0.33 $9.13 $8.80 $8.77 $8.81 $8.84
Tasigur, the Golden Fang $2.76 $1.28 $5.22 $6.50 $7.63 $7.94 $7.98
Whisperwood Elemental $1.78 $0.66 $3.87 $4.53 $5.49 $5.63 $5.65
Warden of the First Tree $0.39 $0.13 $3.41 $3.54 $3.70 $3.79 $3.80
Brutal Hordechief $0.10 $0.07 $2.38 $2.31 $2.25 $2.25 $2.28

 

 

Khans of Tarkir

Name  

Change for

9/21 - 10/14

Change for

10/7 - 10/14

  Price for 10/14 Price for 10/7 Price for 9/30 Price for 9/25 Price for 9/21  

Set Summary

 

The fetches are going up, and in the next month, all but Windswept Heath will be over 20. As said before, do not trade these fetches for anything except other fetches or non-rotating staples. These cards are going to go up a lot more. See the Unwritten is not living up to the hype, and will be a 4 to 5 dollar mythic soon. Hardened Scales is the FNM deck of choice. Solid, but not going to win Premier Events. Mantis Rider and Bloodsoaked Champion will move up.

 
Polluted Delta $1.23 $0.58 $24.81 $24.23 $23.71 $23.71 $23.58
Flooded Strand $1.80 $1.05 $20.89 $19.84 $19.24 $19.29 $19.09
Wooded Foothills $2.79 $2.00 $19.75 $17.75 $16.99 $16.99 $16.96
Bloodstained Mire $4.20 $2.25 $17.20 $14.95 $13.16 $13.25 $13.00
Windswept Heath $2.68 $1.30 $13.80 $12.50 $11.25 $11.30 $11.12
Sorin, Solemn Visitor $1.00 $0.45 $8.99 $8.54 $7.99 $7.99 $7.99
Anafenza, the Foremost $3.34 $1.35 $7.85 $6.50 $4.57 $4.53 $4.51
See the Unwritten $1.61 $0.67 $6.47 $7.14 $7.96 $7.99 $8.08
Hardened Scales $2.39 $0.27 $5.25 $5.52 $4.00 $3.39 $2.86
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker $0.23 $0.01 $5.23 $5.22 $5.10 $5.00 $5.00
Dig Through Time $0.29 $0.11 $5.20 $5.31 $5.48 $5.48 $5.49
Wingmate Roc $1.96 $1.35 $4.95 $3.60 $3.02 $3.00 $2.99
Siege Rhino $0.08 $0.07 $3.66 $3.59 $3.59 $3.59 $3.58
Monastery Swiftspear $0.29 $0.07 $3.50 $3.43 $3.29 $3.27 $3.21
Rattleclaw Mystic $0.45 $0.16 $2.87 $2.71 $2.45 $2.43 $2.42
Clever Impersonator $0.12 $0.06 $2.55 $2.49 $2.44 $2.44 $2.43
Mantis Rider - - $2.25        

 


 

Overall Summary

 

Jeskai Black and G/W Megamorph appears to be the new decks, with Atarka Red cooling off and five-color decks receding until their manabase is fixed.  However, until the Pro Tour comes and goes, Standard will still be in flux. Continue looking at speculation targets and get the lands that are needed. 

 

The Expeditions are not delivering on the insane value they were speculated to be. That is a good thing. They are at good price, not worth it to buy a box of Battle for Zendikar for, but still reasonable to open.

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