Every time a new deck clearly outshines the rest of the competition in Standard, Wizards has characteristically banned cards from it to the point that the deck was unplayable. Psychatog? Banned. Wild Mongrel? Banned. Lin Sivvi? Banned. Goblin Sharpshooter? Banned. When Wizards issued bannings against all of these cards in Standard, the metagame was filled with few new decks and they could not hope to compete with the old decks that had been banned into the pits of hell itself. Even now history repeats itself, "Wir mussen der Affinity aus rotten." This, of course, is an inversion of the truth. However,
Those familiar with Standard or Affinity in general are aware that the Ravager Affinity archetype contains many 'degenerate' combos and card synergies; the deck is designed to abuse free or inexpensive creatures played through the Affinity mechanic or brought into play via AEther Vial and uses artifact lands in conjunction with Cranial Plating, Arcbound Ravager, and Disciple of the Vault to produce vast amounts of damage very quickly. For those unfamiliar with Standard or Affinity- the deck has completely dominated the Standard Constructed environment since its conception with the release of Darksteel, taking a Ted Knutson estimated 70% of the top 8 slots at all major tournaments. Before we get into an analysis of the cards themselves, I want to save you, the reader, the time of switching between Aaron's article and this one (although I'd ask that you read it since it's actually quite interesting... just don't go right now, I have important things to say), so I've taken the liberty of reading the article and pulling out specific comments the A man has made about Standard and the dethroning of Affinity. Some have conjectured that the article states that Wizards intends to completely neuter the deck type. As you shall see, I tend to disagree.
PART ONE: THE ARREST WARRANT
Aaron begins with a discussion of counter-Affinity measures taken up until this point:
Quote fromBanning Skullclamp didn't stop it, nor did printing subtle hosers in Champions of Kamigawa like Samurai of the Pale Curtain, Night of Souls' Betrayal, Horobi, and Imi Statue.
What Aaron and pretty much R&D don't see is the following:
1. Skullclamp wasn't just played in Affinity, it was played in roughly 90% of the decks in the Standard format. Those not playing it were forced to play cards that would hose the equipment. When Skullclamp was banned from Affinity's arsenal, it was also removed from all of the other decks in Standard at the time. In short, R&D shot Affinity in the foot, but also shot its competitors in the foot as well. The whole of Standard was disempowered with Skullclamp's banning, leaving the still-dominant Affinity to take advantage of that fact.
2. Samurai of the Pale Curtain was printed at a time when White Weenie was not good. I know there are White Weenie diehards out there who will readily attest that their White Weenie deck went 15-0 against an entire regional of Affinity decks but face facts- you cannot compare Affinity's dominance over standard to the occasional appearance of little white dudes in the top 8. In addition, the fox was added at a point when white-based control's best weapons were rotating out of standard [see: Akroma's Vengeance, Decree of Justice, Astral Slide, and Exalted Angel]. In short, they printed a tool to solve the Affinity problem but didn't leave any outlets to actually plug that solution into. If R&D makes White solutions to Affinity but doesn't print any cards to actually push White in standard, then the 'solution' only creates more problems.
3. Night of Souls' Betrayal costs 4, 2 of which is black. Although MBC was not a premier deck of ONS/MIR standard, the loss of Visara, the Dreadful coupled with a lack of any serious pushing on R&D's part left the MBC world high and dry. Once again, R&D created a solution without an outlet- the only deck the enchantment can realistically fit in is Mono-Black. To top that off, this solution costs 4; the 4-mana mark is when Affinity enters topdeck mode.
4. Hirobi worked for a while. However, Hirobi's dilemma is that he doesn't work well against non-Affinity decks. The Wail becomes a huge liability against UG and his "destroy targeted creature" ability is completely useless against 11/11 Iron Giants. This specific instance is clearly Standard's fault and not R&D's- they created an effective solution that had a deck to support it but had poor odds against non-Affinity.
5. Imi Statue's lack-of-working rests solely on the head of one B costed Cleric: Affinity doesn't need to untap if it doesn't need to tap its creatures or play spells to kill you. However, there's always that lingering "Well, I'll just untap my 9/2 Ornithopter and swing at your face." In the very same way, every color has some solution to a 2-toughness flying artifact creature. I think Imi Statue would be a considerably better solution to Affinity without Disciple around, especially considering that Affinity would be forced into combat to win as opposed to keeping a black mana untapped and waiting to drop a win.
With that initial point against standard, you can clearly see Aaron doesn't really see where the correct culprit is. When you print 'hosers' like Granulate (that don't actually have an effect of 7/10 of the deck), or Night of Soul's Betrayal (that are so awkwardly costed that, regardless of how effective they are, cannot possibly see constructed play), or Imi Statue (that completely ignores one of the inherent problems that require hosing), it really seems odd for R&D to complain about the state of Standard when they haven't really initiated any effective balance... until now.
He closes the article:
Quote fromI'm sure this news is shocking, but I hope most of you walk away from this article smiling. Better times are ahead.
Some of the users on the forums have interpreted this statement to mean that Wizards intends to make Affinity an unplayable archetype. However, if you read what Aaron says at the beginning of his article and keep this statement in that context, he is saying that, "We (R&D) are going to make non Affinity decks legal for tournament play. You people who don't like Affinity can smile now." He's not overstepping his bounds, he states and consistently reiterates in his article that there will be changes made specifically to Standard Affinity and that this will hopefully make those who hate it happy. Nothing more, nothing less.
PART TWO: WHO'S ON TRIAL?
Ravager: There are several reasons why I don't think this guy is the problem. Even with Dr. Teeth v2.0, Electric Boogaloo out of the picture, Atog is still in Standard. Although you don't have "sac my board, put it on a flier" plays, like with Arcbound Ravager, the only things that make Ravager degenerate are his synergies with the other two highest candidates for banning. In addition, NeoTeeth carries an average* price tag of $17.01 (*statistic from www.findmagiccards.com). Wizards has stated time and again that they do not want to crush people's investments in high-value cards (this can be explicitly seen in their returning Birds of Paradise to Standard in Ravinca). Knowing full well that Ravager itself is only a well-costed aggro card that carries a heavy price tag, it's unlikely that it'll get the chair on March first.
Artifact Lands: In this instance, Wizards removes 5 cards from standard (6 if you include Darksteel Citadel). That's pretty huge. It's possible that they will be banned, but only unlikely in that it's a very large change. As it has been noted repeatedly on the forums, many rogue decks take a significant amount of splash damage from the banning of the A-team, namely KCI, Cog, and Broodstar Affinity. A pro-ban argument for the lands is that their demise will be very effective in disempowering Affinity and each land is a common. In addition, the lands have synergy with producing 2 mana for cards with Affinity, they become cannon fodder for Atog and Arcbound Ravager, and end games with a certain mischievous cleric and said sacrifice outlets. Because the loss of lands will almost certainly make the Affinity archetype, along with several other rogue decks, unplayable, which doesn't seem to be the way Wizards handles bannings (see: Lin Sivvi in MM block constructed), I'd estimate about a 45% chance that they will be banned.
Disciple of the Vault: I've read a lot of talk about this guy being the next Skullclamp. To this notion, I'd like to reestablish my previous point about the equipment's banning: the problem with banning Skullclamp is that Wizards wasn't doing anything to fix the power of Affinity, Wizards was doing something to fix the power of the environment itself. Wizards publicly stated that Skullclamp was banned for several reasons, one of which was specifically because it was a card that was a 'have and have not'- everyone played it. And if you weren't playing it, you were planning against it. Disciple does NOT fit this comparison. He only exists in one deck. This means that if he's removed, the power of one deck is hindered. This ALSO means that if he's removed, all the Affinity hosers get significantly more powerful because they have one less gaping threat staring them in the face. Affinity hosers become useful instead of suicidal. For example:
Player 1: I'll Oxidize your Cranial Plating
Player 2: In response, I AEther Vial one or more Disciple of the Vaults into play. You take damage for trying to displace my current board position.
P1: Ok, I play Viridian Shaman on my next turn, targeting your AEther Vial.
P2: I AEther Vial Arcbound Ravager into play and sacrifice it in response. You lose life and will take more damage when my creatures attack.
P1: Ok, I play another Oxidize on the Ravager.
P2: I sac my board and you lose the game.
Affinity on Affinity match ups degenerate into "who draws the most Disciples and fastest," Affinity on everything else always houses the looming specter of when the Disciple of the Vault is going to pop out of the top of your opponent's library bearing WMDs that are all aimed at your life total. And to top it off, he's a one mana common. Removing Disciple of the Vault from standard makes Affinity a weaker deck overall but doesn't wipe the archetype clean from standard. Overall, I'd be inclined to believe that this is most likely to be banned on the first.
PART THREE: ACCOMPLICE TO THE MURDER OF STANDARD?
Another commonly mentioned card while discussing what killed Standard is Cranial Plating. The inherent flaw in accusing Plating of destroying Standard is that it requires a lot of situational effects. For it to be effective, there must be a creature in play, it must be able to get through an opponent's field, there must be a great deal of artifacts to go with it, the opponent can't use any kind of combat trick to stop the damage or kill the creature, and it's counter-intuitive with Ravager and Atog. That's not to say that Cranial Plating isn't an insane card in Affinity; it's beastly. However, the card has a lot of 'if's' and 'but's attached to it before it's effective. But when it's effective... well, we've all had our fair share of 11/2 Ornithopters going in for the kill.
PART FOUR: THE EFFECTS OF SENTENCING
The following are what will most likely happen based on what is banned. These are all guesstimates on my part, written in "in-class note" form:
Scenario 1: Ravager is banned- Nothing really changes. Players are in a fervor over losing $60+-. Ravager Affinity is still a tremendous problem as Atog replaces Ravager in most builds.
Scenario 2: Colored Artifact Lands are banned- KCI, Bauble/Cog, and Affinity are hosed and neigh unplayable. TAN becomes a potential problem without an aggro deck to match it in speed. People will probably still try to play a severely hosed build of Affinity, only to meet dropping prices of Ravager. Either that, or the Extended-looking land build will become more popular, only w/ more Glimmervoids, Citadels, and Nexi. I suppose there's still an inherent flaw in that the combo-victory is still out and about, so it may be possible to still play Affinity in this form.
Scenario 3: Disciple is banned- Affinity remains the choice Aggro deck of the format. Other decks that were previously tier 3, if not lower, move up to tier 1 and 2 because their removal and blocking no longer results in a game loss. UG gains a significant boost in power because it handles the metagame well with a mix of counters, good creatures, bounce, and artifact kill. Affinity is still very popular, but not broken. (I estimate that many Affinity builds will play Tree of Tales over Vault and SB Oxidize. In this instance, Affinity itself becomes hunted to a greater extent as it will have to withstand hate in mirror matches as well as non-mirror matches)
Scenario 4: Ravager and Lands are banned- Affinity ceases to exist. Affinity retains no tempo, card advantage, or power. Some may try to revive the archetype using DotV and Atog, but will most likely be met with failure.
Scenario 5: Ravager and Disciple are banned- See scenario 3 and add the fervor from scenario 1. Affinity is neutered and people are up in arms.
Scenario 6: Disciple and Lands are banned- Affinity is mitigated to ineffective creatures and average land. There is no combo victory. Outside of banning the whole lot, this is as crappy as Affinity can get.
Scenario 7: The whole lot is banned- What's an 'Affinity'?
PART FIVE: CONCLUSION
The central question in the matter is whether Wizards has decided that there will be no Affinity (unlikely if you take note of the referencing past prominent archetypes) or that Affinity needs to stop being greedy with Standard. If I am right, and history does reflect what will happen in the upcoming banned list update, this is the order of how things will be banned, ranging from most to least likely:
1. Disciple of the Vault
2. Shrapnel Blast/Cranial Plating
3. Mirrodin Artifact Lands
4. Ravager/Atog
5. AEther Vial
6. Anything with the word Affinity printed on it
7. Glimmervoid
8. Anything with the word Arcbound printed on it
9. Thoughtcast
10. All artifacts with a cmc of 0
Overall, I hope that Standard does see an improvement with these upcoming bannings. Although the problem has been addressed with some delay, it is clear that R&D finally realizes that the problem will not 'sort itself out.' My name is Kijin and if you want to contact me on this article, trades, card strategies, you want my autograph, or you just feel like sending me money, feel free to PM me, IM me at KijinZabuza, or email me at blindkijin
-"You and all you hold dear will be ground to dust. Your hero cannot save you."
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